ED472176 - Projections of Education Statistics to 2012. Thirty-First Edition - ERIC-ED472176 | Content Details

ED472176 - Projections of Education Statistics to 2012. Thirty-First Edition

Summary

Category: Executive Agency Publications

Collection: Education Reports from ERIC

SuDoc Class Number: ED 1.615:

Date Issued: October 1, 2002

Author: Gerald, Debra E.; Hussar, William J

Source Institution: National Center for Education Statistics (ED), Washington, DC

Publication Type: Numerical/Quantitative Data, Reports - Descriptive

Subject: College Graduates, Educational Trends, Elementary Secondary Education, Enrollment Projections, Futures (of Society), High School Graduates, Higher Education, Private Schools, Public Schools, School Demography, School Statistics, Tables (Data)

Abstract: This report, 31st in a series begun in 1964, provides revisions of projections shown in "Projections of Education Statistics to 2011" and includes statistics on elementary and secondary schools and degree- granting institutions. Included are projections of enrollments and graduates to the year 2012. Projections of teachers and expenditures are not included in this edition, but they are available in "Projections of Education Statistics to 2011." This report also contains projections of public elementary and secondary school enrollment and public high school graduates to the year 2112 at the state level. 'These projections have been produced by the National Center for Education Statistics, but they are not intended to supplant detailed projections prepared in individual states. The report contains a methodology section describing models and assumptions used to develop the national and state projections. The enrollment models use data and population estimates and projections from the National Center for Education Statistics and the U.S. Census Bureau. Population projections are not based on the 200 Census data, which have not yet been released. Most of the projections of education statistics include three alternatives based on different assumptions about demographic and economic growth plans. The first set of projections (middle alternative) is deemed to represent the most likely projections, but the high and low alternatives provide a reasonable range of outcomes. Projections suggest a 1% increase in public and private elementary and secondary enrollment, with a slight decrease in the lower grades, and an increase of about 4% in the upper grades. Enrollment in degree-granting institutions is projected to increase 15% by 2011, and high school graduates are expected to increase by 9%. Four appendixes contain a discussion of the methodology, supplementary tables, a list of data sources, and a glossary. (Contains 44 figures and 49 tables.).