[Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States: William J. Clinton (1998, Book I)]
[May 16, 1998]
[Pages 770-776]
[From the U.S. Government Publishing Office www.gpo.gov]



[[Page 770]]


Interview With Prime Minister Tony Blair of the 
United Kingdom by David Frost of the British 
Broadcasting Corporation in Weston-under-Lizard, United Kingdom
May 16, 1998

Northern Ireland Peace Process

    Mr. Frost. Mr. Prime Minister, Mr. President, it's a great joy to be 
talking. And let's begin on the subject that's on everybody's minds 
today, the subject of Northern Ireland. The vote may be more perilously 
close than was hoped a week or 2 ago. What is your message that each of 
you have right now to persuade doubting Unionists or doubting Catholics 
to persuade? How would you both begin?
    Prime Minister Blair. I think it's in many ways a battle between 
fear and emotion on the one hand and reason and hope on the other. And 
the fear and the emotion is totally understandable, but it is important 
that people vote for reason and hope. And I say that because people ask 
me for reassurances on certain of the key items of the agreement. They 
say, ``Reassure us that the IUC is not going to be disbanded or stop 
being a proper police force.'' I give that reassurance. That will be 
plain.
    I give the reassurance, the absolute commitment that, if the cross-
community provisions in the agreement to exclude people from office if 
they engage in violence, if those don't work, then they will be changed. 
That will be in the legislation. I give the explicit commitment to 
people that decommissioning will be a factor that we take into account, 
a factor there, specified in the legislation, so that, if people aren't 
abiding by the decommissioning arrangements of the independent 
commission on decommissioning, then that can mean their exclusion or 
removal from office.
    I give the explicit commitment that people, whether in the assembly 
or the shadow assembly, cannot sit in office in Northern Ireland if 
they're engaged in the ballot box and the gun as a twin strategy.
    Now, all those reassurances I can give. But in the end, it depends 
whether people are really wanting to give themselves the chance for 
stability and prosperity in the future, because the alternative is not 
where we are now. The alternative is for Northern Ireland to slip back. 
So I hope that people will take that chance for the future.
    Mr. Frost. What's the reassurance? What's the message you want to 
get across?
    President Clinton. Well, of course, the United States is the home of 
the largest Irish diaspora, you know, both Irish Protestants and Irish 
Catholics. And so I suppose outside of the people involved, we care more 
about it than any other people. And I've worked hard to create the 
conditions within which the Irish could make their own peace. And what I 
would like to say is, first, I'm convinced there will be a great deal of 
increased interest in and investment in and partnership with Northern 
Ireland if this matter can be carried forward.
    Secondly, I have made it as clear as I can that anyone who abandons 
the peace, if this agreement is embraced, anybody who returns to 
violence is never going to be a friend of the United States. We won't 
tolerate it. We won't support it. We will do everything we can to 
affirmatively oppose it.
    But finally--I remember when I went there in December of '95. I 
remember the looks on the faces of the people, especially the young 
people, the schoolchildren I spoke with, both the Protestant and the 
Catholic children. And I'd just like to ask the voters to imagine what 
will happen if they vote no, and what do they really have to lose by 
voting yes, by giving this a chance? I mean, their leaders came up with 
this plan. Prime Minister Blair worked very hard on it. Prime Minister 
Ahern did. But the leaders in Northern Ireland 
agreed to this plan. What have they got to lose, really, by trying it? 
Nothing. But they have a great deal to lose by walking away, and I hope 
that they won't walk away.
    Mr. Frost. And you mention, in terms of investment and so on, there 
are ways in which the new Northern Ireland--you could help the new 
Northern Ireland?
    President Clinton. Oh, absolutely. Of course, we try every year now. 
We have an International Fund for Ireland. We have a very active group 
of American citizens from both the Protestant and Catholic communities, 
Irish citizens who try to increase investment. But I can tell you that 
the wave of elation that will sweep the friends

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of Ireland in the United States, should this be accepted, will be 
enormous. And there will just be a lot more willingness to get involved 
here and try to help build a future.
    Mr. Frost. And in terms of the people, Prime Minister, who say, 
well, you've got, on the one hand, Sinn Fein saying this is a step 
toward a united Ireland; you've got David Trimble saying, on the other 
hand, that this strengthens the Union. How can both be true?
    Prime Minister Blair. Well, I think the point is the principle of 
consent--in other words, that you can argue your case, whether it's for 
Northern Ireland remaining inside the U.K. or a united Ireland--the 
principle of consent means you have to argue it by democracy, not 
violence. And so people are free to argue their case. But it's a way of 
arguing it that is peaceful.
    And one of the strange things about the debate in Northern Ireland 
is that people aren't actually arguing now about the principle of 
consent. That was what, for 50, 60 years, divided people in Northern 
Ireland. People now accept that. They're not even arguing about the 
institutional structures, the cross-border bobbies, the Northern Ireland 
Assembly. That in a sense is agreed, as well. It is this fear and 
emotion, as I say. You see, prisoners is an example of it. And let me 
again try and go right to the heart of what I think people feel in 
Northern Ireland. They see the scenes of the Balcombe Street Gang or 
Michael Stone and they say, ``Well, this is wrong,'' and the ``no'' 
campaign then say, ``Oh well, the prisoners will be back on the street 
if you vote for this agreement.''
    Again, the facts are these: Michael Stone and the Balcombe Street 
Gang were allowed out under provisions on day release made many, many 
years ago before I even came to government. It had nothing to do with 
the agreement. Most of the prisoners now in jail in Northern Ireland 
will be out within a few years anyway. But they'll be out, of course, 
without the agreement and without stability if there's no vote.
    So again, I understand the concerns that people have, but I do ask 
them to realize that if no is the vote next week, what is the future? 
What are we going to offer children in Northern Ireland?
    President Clinton. You know, if I could just say sort of as an 
interested friend, an outside observer--as you know, I've been very 
involved in the Bosnian peace, in the Middle East peace process--I 
think, essentially, the people that are for this want a better future 
for their children and don't want any more violence and like the fact 
that there is now a process which has been agreed upon for moving 
forward. If you really listen to the arguments of the people that are 
against it--and I've tried to listen very respectfully--it is that they 
still don't trust those on the other side because of all the things that 
have gone before.
    In 1993 Yitzhak Rabin, right before we signed the agreement between 
Israel and the PLO, said to me, ``I have spent my life as a soldier. I 
have killed a lot of these people, and they have killed a lot of my 
people. But,'' he said, ``Mr. President, you don't make peace with your 
friends. You make peace, and then you make friends.'' And I think that's 
important here. But in Northern Ireland the people live much more 
closely together. They have in some ways--they haven't killed each other 
in the way the Bosnians did. With all the horrible things, they can get 
over this if they just will--it's a little bit of a leap of faith, but 
the risks of doing it are so much less than the risks of walking away.
    Mr. Frost. And I think that example is a very relevant one, of 
Yitzhak Rabin, because that is the problem with the moderate Unionists, 
some of them, who've got concern. I think you've dealt with the point 
about the prisoners. You said that a lot of them would be coming out in 
the next few years anyway, and that links in with their fear of 
decommissioning of arms and that, therefore, there will be lots of 
killers running around with arms and so on. But how do you respond to 
that?
    Prime Minister Blair. Well, I respond to it by saying that we will 
make it quite clear, explicitly in the legislation, that the twin 
strategy of ballot box and gun is not going to be permitted. And that 
all the things, in terms of seats in the Northern Ireland executive, in 
terms of accelerated prisoner release, they can only happen if there's 
real peace, a real end to violence, an end to violence for good, not 
temporarily, permanently, an end to violence.
    I think it's possible that we can achieve that. But we've got to 
achieve it with people really making this agreement work. And all the 
time that we spent trying to put this together, it was agonizingly 
difficult. And yet in the end, I think there is the will out there 
amongst people in Northern Ireland; there is the hope to make it work.

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Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia

    Mr. Frost. We'll come back to that subject before the end of the 
conversation. But you've been examining a lot of other issues and two 
issues have come up to take up a lot of your time at this conference. 
And obviously, one of them is India and, obviously, a slight difference 
of emphasis on what you think should be done and what you have done than 
the other members of G-8. Why do you feel the way you do, Mr. President?
    President Clinton. Do you mean why do I think that we should not 
only condemn the Indian action but take some economic action against 
India?
    Mr. Frost. Yes.
    President Clinton. I just think we need to do as much as possible to 
make it clear that, in the world of today and tomorrow, it is simply 
unacceptable to build a nuclear arsenal. And it is unrealistic to 
believe you can build one and you won't use it under any circumstances. 
Therefore, the main purpose of doing it is to establish yourself as a 
great nation. That is not a way to define a nation's greatness in the 
21st century. And I say that because I think the firmer we are here, the 
more likely we are to be able to persuade Pakistan, or perhaps other 
countries lining up behind Pakistan, that they should not test, that 
they should not try to become public members of the nuclear club. We 
need to move the world away from it.
    I'm trying to get Russia to ratify START II now so we can dismantle 
our arsenals further and then go to START III and dismantle our arsenals 
further. I'm trying to take America and Russia in the opposite 
direction. I'm afraid in our own countries, we'll have people who say, 
``Oh, we better not do that if India and Pakistan and other countries 
are going to build up their arsenals.'' It's just--it's not the way to 
the future.
    Mr. Frost. And so the message to Pakistan--there's rumors that they 
may be testing next week in western Baluchistan, or whatever--would be 
that you would take--you feel you should take the same action against 
them if they did?
    President Clinton. Well, under our law, we'll have no choice. In 
other words, it's an automatic under our law. But what I would say to 
them is, help us work with you to find a way, first of all, to guarantee 
your security without nuclear weapons, and secondly, to reconcile with 
India.
    I mean, look at Pakistan and India. You've got one country with 950 
million people, another country with nearly 140 million people. They are 
arguing principally over Kashmir, not entirely but principally. Now, if 
they could resolve this, if you look at the success of Indians and 
Pakistanis in the United Kingdom or in the United States and you look at 
the talent in those two countries and you realize, if they would 
liberate themselves from this argument between themselves, it is quite 
conceivable that for the next 50 years they could have the highest 
growth rates and not just economic success but the richest and most 
textured quality of life on the Indian subcontinent of any place on the 
globe. And so I think they should be imagining a different future for 
themselves, both of them.
    Have the rest of us failed to appreciate them as much as we should 
have? Probably. Have we failed to acknowledge India the incredible 
achievement of maintaining 50 years of democracy under the most adverse 
conceivable circumstances? Probably. We should do better. But the answer 
is not for India to become a nuclear power and then for Pakistan to 
match it stride for stride, and then for China to be brought in to 
support the Pakistanis and move troops to the Indian border, and then 
for Russia to come in and recreate in a different context the conflicts 
of the cold war. It is a nutty way to go. It is not the way to chart the 
future.
    Mr. Frost. And in fact, you spoke to the Indian Prime Minister. Did 
you think that the optimists might have a point when they say that now 
they've done this test; maybe they'll sign the nonproliferation and the 
test ban treaties; they just needed to do this. So it's good news? Or is 
that just whistling in the wind?
    Prime Minister Blair. Well, I certainly hope that they are prepared 
to do that, and there will be very, very strong pressure from the 
international community for them to come, unconditionally, into both 
treaties. And I think it's tremendously important they do so. Because as 
the President was saying, I mean, if we have nuclear proliferation in 
the world--India--then if Pakistan were again to defy what is a very, 
very strong plea to them from the rest of the world not to engage in 
this, then you've got the danger of other states as well. So I mean, 
we're dealing with extremely serious and threatening present dangers.

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Situation in Indonesia

    Mr. Frost. What about Indonesia, talking of serious and threatening 
dangers? I mean, there's not much that could be done, is there? I mean, 
you've all said you're not going to seek to get rid of Mr. Soeharto, 
although you probably wouldn't sob if he decided to step down of his own 
accord. But what is there that the rest of the world can do about a 
situation like that, or is it an example of where you can do nothing?
    Prime Minister Blair. Well, I don't think you can do nothing. We 
can't interfere in their own internal politics, it is true. But a lot of 
the discussions that we have had over this past couple of days have been 
about we bring about greater stability in the financial systems of the 
world, because the crisis in Asia that has rocked many of the economies 
there will have an impact right round the world, is already having, may 
have an even more serious impact in the future. So what we can do is try 
and devise the right architecture, if you like, for the financial 
systems of the world which lead to greater stability, more openness, 
more transparency, and where we keep the advantages of global markets 
and trade, but try and make sure that that happens within a system 
that's properly regulated.
    President Clinton. Keep in mind, Indonesia is the fourth or fifth 
largest country in the world in population. So, even though what we've 
seen on the television is very troubling, this is a vast country, the 
largest Muslim country in the world, with a very complex society that 
has been through a very traumatic several months. And I think it's 
important to point out that the world community has not been idle. We've 
been working hard since November--at least since November to try to help 
Indonesia come out of its economic problems.
    But we have felt all along that ultimately, to build a stable modern 
economy and to avoid this crisis, there would have to be some way for 
the Government and the President to deal with all 
elements of society on some sort of democratic basis. And that's what 
our statement says. So what we want is to see Indonesia come out of this 
whole and healthy. They should decide the fate of all their leaders; it 
should be up to the people to decide. But this is not a hopeless 
situation yet. This is a great country full of talented people with 
staggering economic achievements in the last 30 years--staggering. So I 
think that what we have to do is to hope for the best and try to guard 
against the worst and keep working with them.

Asian Economies

    Mr. Frost. And do you feel--you mentioned there as we led into that, 
the subject of the Asian situation. Mr. President, do you feel that the 
worst is over in the Asian economic crisis, that it's on the mend, or is 
still on the jaws of----
    President Clinton. I think it's hard to generalize. I think the 
Philippines have done very well and a tribute to their leadership. 
Thailand is doing better. Korea is clearly coming back, which is very 
good, because it's a big part of the economy. And Malaysia is having a 
difficult time, but they have a lot of strong economic underpinnings. 
And Indonesia is the big question. The other thing, of course, is that 
Japan--Prime Minister Hashimoto is 
struggling mightily now to put together a package that will restore 
growth in Japan. If growth comes back to the Japanese economy, that 
will--because it so dwarfs the others in size, it will cure a lot of 
these problems.
    Prime Minister Blair. I mean, the fundamentals are strong, actually, 
in the Asian economies, but we've just got to work together to put the 
right system around it so that both systems are helped.

Third World Debt Relief

    Mr. Frost. Does all these other issues mean that you'll make less 
progress on the whole area of Third World debt at this G-8 than you both 
hoped, or can you catch up?
    Prime Minister Blair. No. I think, in fact, we've had a very good 
meeting on Third World debt, and we've agreed on a number of specific 
measures, including greater help for countries, particularly if they're 
in a post-conflict situation or there's been conflict there, and for the 
highly indebted countries. Because for many of these countries--in 
Africa--the President has just been there recently and so knows better 
than most of us--but there is tremendous potential there. But they're 
struggling under this huge burden of debt. Often their political systems 
have been a tremendous handicap to them, but there is progress on the 
democratic front there. But we've got to give them the help that we can, 
whilst making sure that we're not just channeling aid, but we're 
actually making sure that

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that money, when it goes in, is going to be used properly and where 
we're trying to alleviate the debt burden so that they can come out of 
this situation of crisis that they've been in.
    President Clinton. I think to be fair, when Prime Minister Blair 
took over the head of the G-8, one of his initiatives was to have the 
right kind of debt relief. And we have embraced, now for a little more 
than a year, a strategy for the highly indebted poor countries that says 
we will--we know we should do debt relief, but it won't do any good 
unless they do things to help themselves. So we'll have a structured 
system where we'll give much, much more help to the highly indebted poor 
countries that actually undertake their own reform, so that we believe 
the debt relief will actually amount to money being invested in their 
future in a positive way.
    And when I went to Africa, one of the things I saw was the countries 
with honest governments can channel the energy, the intelligence, the 
passion of a wonderful people and get a lot done. So I'm more optimistic 
about Africa than I was before I went there. But I do believe that we 
should help those who are trying to help themselves.
    Prime Minister Blair. It's interesting. It's one of the great 
lessons of the 20th century that democracy and prosperity in the end go 
together.

The Euro and the Dollar

    Mr. Frost. In terms of prosperity, one lightening question occurs to 
me. The euro--we're talking about the euro here--what will be the 
implications of a strong euro on the dollar, Mr. President? Could it be 
bad news for the dollar?
    President Clinton. I don't think so. It could become, some time in 
the future, an alternative currency. You know, people might trade in the 
euro as well as the dollar. It could become--a lot of transactions might 
be done in the euro as well as the dollar. But I don't see that as a 
threatening thing. I think anything that brings free people closer 
together and increases prosperity in a democratic way, that makes it 
more likely to be broadly shared, is positive.
    So I think as long as that's what's going on--you know, Europe--a 
unified Europe, it seems to me, is still committed to freedom, still 
committed to openness, still committed to a certain generosity of 
spirit, and I think that has to be good for the world. What we're trying 
to do, slowly but surely, is to integrate political and economic and 
social systems of the world not in ways that diminish national 
sovereignty but that alleviate the problems of the world and enable us 
to tackle together those things we can't solve alone.

Advice for Prime Minister Blair

    Mr. Frost. And you have a great working relationship, the two of 
you, but one difference between you, of course, is that Mr. President, 
you are in your second term and the Prime Minister is early in his first 
term. What is the most important advice to someone in their first time 
in order to get into their second term?
    President Clinton. Oh, I think he's doing it. I think that--the most 
important thing I think he can do is to keep the commitments he made in 
the campaign and to stay in touch with the people and to not be deterred 
from doing the public's business. You know, people, when they hire you 
to do these jobs, they want you to work on their affairs. And then when 
you get in them, there's all sorts of static designed to break your 
concentration. You have to ignore it and stay at the business.
    But I think my advice would be to--he had a very detailed theory 
about why he wanted to be Prime Minister and where he wanted Great 
Britain to go, and of course, I have a lot of sympathy with the ideas he 
put forward, and he's doing a good job of doing what he promised to do. 
And I think that's the most important thing. And then I think as--the 
more you get into it, then I think the more you begin to think about 
what's it going to be like when my children are my age; what's it going 
to be like when my grandchildren are here. And the more he serves, the 
more he'll have an impact on that as well.

Northern Ireland Peace Process

    Mr. Frost. And along the way, one of the things you've both had to 
also conquer is to bring up your families under the glare of all that 
publicity when the children go to school and all of that. But that's 
fascinating.
    Well, at the end of our time, let's return for a moment to where we 
began. Are you both confident, but not complacent as politicians always 
say, are you confident that the Northern Ireland people on Friday will 
take a decision which you believe passionately is the right decision, a 
positive decision, that they will feel the

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hand of history on their shoulder? Are you confident about that?
    Prime Minister Blair. I mean, I am confident, but I do know that 
they are considering this really with their heart and their head, and 
they're going into tremendous detail. And I think that over this next 
few days it's important that people put their concerns to people like 
myself and, perhaps, particularly to me and that I answer those 
concerns, so that people go in and vote yes, in a spirit of real 
optimism and confidence themselves about the future. And they can do 
that.
    Mr. Frost. And do you have to have, or not--you don't have to have a 
majority of over 50 percent in each community in Northern Ireland, don't 
have to have that. Do you want that? Do you need it?
    Prime Minister Blair. No, we don't have to have it, but I want as 
big a vote as possible in both communities. And I want this to be an 
agreement where we, for once and for all, we get rid of the zero-sum 
game in Northern Ireland politics which says if one side is happy with 
something, that means I'm unhappy. Both communities, both traditions, if 
you like, within Northern Ireland can be satisfied with this, because 
for the Unionists, the principle of consent is there; for the 
Nationalist community there is fairness and equity of treatment, the 
recognition of the Nationalist identity.
    That's what this is--you know, I said this on Good Friday after that 
marathon negotiation we went through, that in the end it's not a fudge, 
this agreement; it is an historic settlement of Nationalist and Unionist 
aspirations. And what it means is that in a new world, 2 years off the 
millennium, where everything is changing around the Republic of Ireland, 
Europe, Britain, our relations with the rest of the world, where people 
can argue their case free in the knowledge that they can do so 
democratically rather than by resorting to violence--now, that's the 
historic settlement. And that's why I want as many people in both 
communities to come out and support it.
    Mr. Frost. What are your thoughts, Mr. President? Are you confident? 
Can this be a win-win situation for both sides?
    President Clinton. Oh, absolutely. There's no question in my view 
that, if they vote for the accord, it will turn out to be a win-win. I 
mean, think about where the world is going to be in 12 years. Just think 
about 12 years from now--2010. You will have a much more globalized 
economy; you'll have both Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland more 
involved in the European economy, more involved in the rest of the 
world, and more involved with each other, meeting at the tip of Northern 
Ireland, economically and psychologically, no matter what the legal 
framework is.
    Now, the people that are at that vortex are going to have a very 
interesting, very rich, very good life if they vote to live it together. 
If they vote to stay apart, they're still going to be frustrated, 
distrustful, angry, and a little bit left out. And I think all of us, we 
have hope and fear inside. I say all the time, we all have little scales 
inside, and some days we wake up with hope weighing down, some days with 
fear weighing down. I think on election day the clearheadedness of the 
Irish people will prevail in Northern Ireland. I think that both 
communities will go in and vote for the future.
    I just ask them to think about what the world will be like, what 
these islands will be like just 12 years from now, and what they want 
Northern Ireland to be. We know that democracies of diverse people are 
interesting places to be when your uniqueness is valued, but you 
understand that what you have in common as human beings is more 
important than what divides you. That's a fundamental thing we know. And 
I believe they'll accept that on election day.
    Mr. Frost. Thank you so much. Because the other part of it is that 
when Mr. Willy Ross says, or is quoted as saying, ``Look, if there's a 
no vote, then they'll all just get in and renegotiate it.'' That's not 
on, is it?
    Prime Minister Blair. Well, no. I mean, look, I always say to 
people, of course, ``We're here, and we'll try and pick up the pieces as 
best we can.'' But I mean it would be fundamentally wrong to say that to 
people. We would be in a situation, too, where it wouldn't be the status 
quo, where actually there is quite a lot of hope about, and people do 
feel they're making progress. We go backwards.
    I mean the one thing I've learned in this whole process is if it 
doesn't go forward, it goes backwards. It never stays in the same place. 
So of course, we're the government, we pick up the pieces when 
everything goes wrong. But I think what the President has just said 
there, and has said as a visionist, what people can aspire to----

[[Page 776]]

    President Clinton. And the answer to that is, this agreement--I 
mean, I can see that even as an outsider--this agreement sets up a 
framework to embody in a thousand ways the principle of consent. If he 
doesn't like some detail, then the people will be perfectly free to 
modify it in the future within the framework of the agreement. So why 
take the risk that this moment won't present itself again for another 
generation, when anything that he believes is wrong with it, if he 
thinks he can persuade a majority he's right, can be modified by the 
people themselves in the future?
    Mr. Frost. Thank you, both, very much, indeed. Mr. Prime Minister, 
Mr. President, thank you so much.
    President Clinton. Thank you, David.
    Prime Minister Blair. Thank you.

Note: The interview began at 4:37 p.m. in the Weston Park estate for 
later broadcast on ``Breakfast With Frost'' on BBC1 television. In his 
remarks, the President referred to Prime Minister Bertie Ahern of 
Ireland; President Soeharto of Indonesia; and Prime Minister Ryutaro 
Hashimoto of Japan. Prime Minister Blair referred to the Royal Ulster 
Constabulary (RUC). Mr. Frost referred to Ulster Unionist Party leader 
David Trimble and Member of Parliament Willie Ross; and Prime Minister 
Inder Kumar Gujral of India. A tape was not available for verification 
of the content of this interview.