    [Public Papers of the Presidents of the United States: William J. Clinton (1998, Book I)]
    [May 16, 1998]
    [Pages 770-776]
    [From the U.S. Government Publishing Office www.gpo.gov]

    [[Page 770]]

    Interview With Prime Minister Tony Blair of the
    United Kingdom by David Frost of the British
    Broadcasting Corporation in Weston-under-Lizard, United Kingdom
    May 16, 1998

    Northern Ireland Peace Process

        Mr. Frost. Mr. Prime Minister, Mr. President, it's a great joy to be
    talking. And let's begin on the subject that's on everybody's minds
    today, the subject of Northern Ireland. The vote may be more perilously
    close than was hoped a week or 2 ago. What is your message that each of
    you have right now to persuade doubting Unionists or doubting Catholics
    to persuade? How would you both begin?
        Prime Minister Blair. I think it's in many ways a battle between
    fear and emotion on the one hand and reason and hope on the other. And
    the fear and the emotion is totally understandable, but it is important
    that people vote for reason and hope. And I say that because people ask
    me for reassurances on certain of the key items of the agreement. They
    say, ``Reassure us that the IUC is not going to be disbanded or stop
    being a proper police force.'' I give that reassurance. That will be
    plain.
        I give the reassurance, the absolute commitment that, if the cross-
    community provisions in the agreement to exclude people from office if
    they engage in violence, if those don't work, then they will be changed.
    That will be in the legislation. I give the explicit commitment to
    people that decommissioning will be a factor that we take into account,
    a factor there, specified in the legislation, so that, if people aren't
    abiding by the decommissioning arrangements of the independent
    commission on decommissioning, then that can mean their exclusion or
    removal from office.
        I give the explicit commitment that people, whether in the assembly
    or the shadow assembly, cannot sit in office in Northern Ireland if
    they're engaged in the ballot box and the gun as a twin strategy.
        Now, all those reassurances I can give. But in the end, it depends
    whether people are really wanting to give themselves the chance for
    stability and prosperity in the future, because the alternative is not
    where we are now. The alternative is for Northern Ireland to slip back.
    So I hope that people will take that chance for the future.
        Mr. Frost. What's the reassurance? What's the message you want to
    get across?
        President Clinton. Well, of course, the United States is the home of
    the largest Irish diaspora, you know, both Irish Protestants and Irish
    Catholics. And so I suppose outside of the people involved, we care more
    about it than any other people. And I've worked hard to create the
    conditions within which the Irish could make their own peace. And what I
    would like to say is, first, I'm convinced there will be a great deal of
    increased interest in and investment in and partnership with Northern
    Ireland if this matter can be carried forward.
        Secondly, I have made it as clear as I can that anyone who abandons
    the peace, if this agreement is embraced, anybody who returns to
    violence is never going to be a friend of the United States. We won't
    tolerate it. We won't support it. We will do everything we can to
    affirmatively oppose it.
        But finally--I remember when I went there in December of '95. I
    remember the looks on the faces of the people, especially the young
    people, the schoolchildren I spoke with, both the Protestant and the
    Catholic children. And I'd just like to ask the voters to imagine what
    will happen if they vote no, and what do they really have to lose by
    voting yes, by giving this a chance? I mean, their leaders came up with
    this plan. Prime Minister Blair worked very hard on it. Prime Minister
    Ahern did. But the leaders in Northern Ireland
    agreed to this plan. What have they got to lose, really, by trying it?
    Nothing. But they have a great deal to lose by walking away, and I hope
    that they won't walk away.
        Mr. Frost. And you mention, in terms of investment and so on, there
    are ways in which the new Northern Ireland--you could help the new
    Northern Ireland?
        President Clinton. Oh, absolutely. Of course, we try every year now.
    We have an International Fund for Ireland. We have a very active group
    of American citizens from both the Protestant and Catholic communities,
    Irish citizens who try to increase investment. But I can tell you that
    the wave of elation that will sweep the friends

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    of Ireland in the United States, should this be accepted, will be
    enormous. And there will just be a lot more willingness to get involved
    here and try to help build a future.
        Mr. Frost. And in terms of the people, Prime Minister, who say,
    well, you've got, on the one hand, Sinn Fein saying this is a step
    toward a united Ireland; you've got David Trimble saying, on the other
    hand, that this strengthens the Union. How can both be true?
        Prime Minister Blair. Well, I think the point is the principle of
    consent--in other words, that you can argue your case, whether it's for
    Northern Ireland remaining inside the U.K. or a united Ireland--the
    principle of consent means you have to argue it by democracy, not
    violence. And so people are free to argue their case. But it's a way of
    arguing it that is peaceful.
        And one of the strange things about the debate in Northern Ireland
    is that people aren't actually arguing now about the principle of
    consent. That was what, for 50, 60 years, divided people in Northern
    Ireland. People now accept that. They're not even arguing about the
    institutional structures, the cross-border bobbies, the Northern Ireland
    Assembly. That in a sense is agreed, as well. It is this fear and
    emotion, as I say. You see, prisoners is an example of it. And let me
    again try and go right to the heart of what I think people feel in
    Northern Ireland. They see the scenes of the Balcombe Street Gang or
    Michael Stone and they say, ``Well, this is wrong,'' and the ``no''
    campaign then say, ``Oh well, the prisoners will be back on the street
    if you vote for this agreement.''
        Again, the facts are these: Michael Stone and the Balcombe Street
    Gang were allowed out under provisions on day release made many, many
    years ago before I even came to government. It had nothing to do with
    the agreement. Most of the prisoners now in jail in Northern Ireland
    will be out within a few years anyway. But they'll be out, of course,
    without the agreement and without stability if there's no vote.
        So again, I understand the concerns that people have, but I do ask
    them to realize that if no is the vote next week, what is the future?
    What are we going to offer children in Northern Ireland?
        President Clinton. You know, if I could just say sort of as an
    interested friend, an outside observer--as you know, I've been very
    involved in the Bosnian peace, in the Middle East peace process--I
    think, essentially, the people that are for this want a better future
    for their children and don't want any more violence and like the fact
    that there is now a process which has been agreed upon for moving
    forward. If you really listen to the arguments of the people that are
    against it--and I've tried to listen very respectfully--it is that they
    still don't trust those on the other side because of all the things that
    have gone before.
        In 1993 Yitzhak Rabin, right before we signed the agreement between
    Israel and the PLO, said to me, ``I have spent my life as a soldier. I
    have killed a lot of these people, and they have killed a lot of my
    people. But,'' he said, ``Mr. President, you don't make peace with your
    friends. You make peace, and then you make friends.'' And I think that's
    important here. But in Northern Ireland the people live much more
    closely together. They have in some ways--they haven't killed each other
    in the way the Bosnians did. With all the horrible things, they can get
    over this if they just will--it's a little bit of a leap of faith, but
    the risks of doing it are so much less than the risks of walking away.
        Mr. Frost. And I think that example is a very relevant one, of
    Yitzhak Rabin, because that is the problem with the moderate Unionists,
    some of them, who've got concern. I think you've dealt with the point
    about the prisoners. You said that a lot of them would be coming out in
    the next few years anyway, and that links in with their fear of
    decommissioning of arms and that, therefore, there will be lots of
    killers running around with arms and so on. But how do you respond to
    that?
        Prime Minister Blair. Well, I respond to it by saying that we will
    make it quite clear, explicitly in the legislation, that the twin
    strategy of ballot box and gun is not going to be permitted. And that
    all the things, in terms of seats in the Northern Ireland executive, in
    terms of accelerated prisoner release, they can only happen if there's
    real peace, a real end to violence, an end to violence for good, not
    temporarily, permanently, an end to violence.
        I think it's possible that we can achieve that. But we've got to
    achieve it with people really making this agreement work. And all the
    time that we spent trying to put this together, it was agonizingly
    difficult. And yet in the end, I think there is the will out there
    amongst people in Northern Ireland; there is the hope to make it work.

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    Nuclear Proliferation in South Asia

        Mr. Frost. We'll come back to that subject before the end of the
    conversation. But you've been examining a lot of other issues and two
    issues have come up to take up a lot of your time at this conference.
    And obviously, one of them is India and, obviously, a slight difference
    of emphasis on what you think should be done and what you have done than
    the other members of G-8. Why do you feel the way you do, Mr. President?
        President Clinton. Do you mean why do I think that we should not
    only condemn the Indian action but take some economic action against
    India?
        Mr. Frost. Yes.
        President Clinton. I just think we need to do as much as possible to
    make it clear that, in the world of today and tomorrow, it is simply
    unacceptable to build a nuclear arsenal. And it is unrealistic to
    believe you can build one and you won't use it under any circumstances.
    Therefore, the main purpose of doing it is to establish yourself as a
    great nation. That is not a way to define a nation's greatness in the
    21st century. And I say that because I think the firmer we are here, the
    more likely we are to be able to persuade Pakistan, or perhaps other
    countries lining up behind Pakistan, that they should not test, that
    they should not try to become public members of the nuclear club. We
    need to move the world away from it.
        I'm trying to get Russia to ratify START II now so we can dismantle
    our arsenals further and then go to START III and dismantle our arsenals
    further. I'm trying to take America and Russia in the opposite
    direction. I'm afraid in our own countries, we'll have people who say,
    ``Oh, we better not do that if India and Pakistan and other countries
    are going to build up their arsenals.'' It's just--it's not the way to
    the future.
        Mr. Frost. And so the message to Pakistan--there's rumors that they
    may be testing next week in western Baluchistan, or whatever--would be
    that you would take--you feel you should take the same action against
    them if they did?
        President Clinton. Well, under our law, we'll have no choice. In
    other words, it's an automatic under our law. But what I would say to
    them is, help us work with you to find a way, first of all, to guarantee
    your security without nuclear weapons, and secondly, to reconcile with
    India.
        I mean, look at Pakistan and India. You've got one country with 950
    million people, another country with nearly 140 million people. They are
    arguing principally over Kashmir, not entirely but principally. Now, if
    they could resolve this, if you look at the success of Indians and
    Pakistanis in the United Kingdom or in the United States and you look at
    the talent in those two countries and you realize, if they would
    liberate themselves from this argument between themselves, it is quite
    conceivable that for the next 50 years they could have the highest
    growth rates and not just economic success but the richest and most
    textured quality of life on the Indian subcontinent of any place on the
    globe. And so I think they should be imagining a different future for
    themselves, both of them.
        Have the rest of us failed to appreciate them as much as we should
    have? Probably. Have we failed to acknowledge India the incredible
    achievement of maintaining 50 years of democracy under the most adverse
    conceivable circumstances? Probably. We should do better. But the answer
    is not for India to become a nuclear power and then for Pakistan to
    match it stride for stride, and then for China to be brought in to
    support the Pakistanis and move troops to the Indian border, and then
    for Russia to come in and recreate in a different context the conflicts
    of the cold war. It is a nutty way to go. It is not the way to chart the
    future.
        Mr. Frost. And in fact, you spoke to the Indian Prime Minister. Did
    you think that the optimists might have a point when they say that now
    they've done this test; maybe they'll sign the nonproliferation and the
    test ban treaties; they just needed to do this. So it's good news? Or is
    that just whistling in the wind?
        Prime Minister Blair. Well, I certainly hope that they are prepared
    to do that, and there will be very, very strong pressure from the
    international community for them to come, unconditionally, into both
    treaties. And I think it's tremendously important they do so. Because as
    the President was saying, I mean, if we have nuclear proliferation in
    the world--India--then if Pakistan were again to defy what is a very,
    very strong plea to them from the rest of the world not to engage in
    this, then you've got the danger of other states as well. So I mean,
    we're dealing with extremely serious and threatening present dangers.

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    Situation in Indonesia

        Mr. Frost. What about Indonesia, talking of serious and threatening
    dangers? I mean, there's not much that could be done, is there? I mean,
    you've all said you're not going to seek to get rid of Mr. Soeharto,
    although you probably wouldn't sob if he decided to step down of his own
    accord. But what is there that the rest of the world can do about a
    situation like that, or is it an example of where you can do nothing?
        Prime Minister Blair. Well, I don't think you can do nothing. We
    can't interfere in their own internal politics, it is true. But a lot of
    the discussions that we have had over this past couple of days have been
    about we bring about greater stability in the financial systems of the
    world, because the crisis in Asia that has rocked many of the economies
    there will have an impact right round the world, is already having, may
    have an even more serious impact in the future. So what we can do is try
    and devise the right architecture, if you like, for the financial
    systems of the world which lead to greater stability, more openness,
    more transparency, and where we keep the advantages of global markets
    and trade, but try and make sure that that happens within a system
    that's properly regulated.
        President Clinton. Keep in mind, Indonesia is the fourth or fifth
    largest country in the world in population. So, even though what we've
    seen on the television is very troubling, this is a vast country, the
    largest Muslim country in the world, with a very complex society that
    has been through a very traumatic several months. And I think it's
    important to point out that the world community has not been idle. We've
    been working hard since November--at least since November to try to help
    Indonesia come out of its economic problems.
        But we have felt all along that ultimately, to build a stable modern
    economy and to avoid this crisis, there would have to be some way for
    the Government and the President to deal with all
    elements of society on some sort of democratic basis. And that's what
    our statement says. So what we want is to see Indonesia come out of this
    whole and healthy. They should decide the fate of all their leaders; it
    should be up to the people to decide. But this is not a hopeless
    situation yet. This is a great country full of talented people with
    staggering economic achievements in the last 30 years--staggering. So I
    think that what we have to do is to hope for the best and try to guard
    against the worst and keep working with them.

    Asian Economies

        Mr. Frost. And do you feel--you mentioned there as we led into that,
    the subject of the Asian situation. Mr. President, do you feel that the
    worst is over in the Asian economic crisis, that it's on the mend, or is
    still on the jaws of----
        President Clinton. I think it's hard to generalize. I think the
    Philippines have done very well and a tribute to their leadership.
    Thailand is doing better. Korea is clearly coming back, which is very
    good, because it's a big part of the economy. And Malaysia is having a
    difficult time, but they have a lot of strong economic underpinnings.
    And Indonesia is the big question. The other thing, of course, is that
    Japan--Prime Minister Hashimoto is
    struggling mightily now to put together a package that will restore
    growth in Japan. If growth comes back to the Japanese economy, that
    will--because it so dwarfs the others in size, it will cure a lot of
    these problems.
        Prime Minister Blair. I mean, the fundamentals are strong, actually,
    in the Asian economies, but we've just got to work together to put the
    right system around it so that both systems are helped.

    Third World Debt Relief

        Mr. Frost. Does all these other issues mean that you'll make less
    progress on the whole area of Third World debt at this G-8 than you both
    hoped, or can you catch up?
        Prime Minister Blair. No. I think, in fact, we've had a very good
    meeting on Third World debt, and we've agreed on a number of specific
    measures, including greater help for countries, particularly if they're
    in a post-conflict situation or there's been conflict there, and for the
    highly indebted countries. Because for many of these countries--in
    Africa--the President has just been there recently and so knows better
    than most of us--but there is tremendous potential there. But they're
    struggling under this huge burden of debt. Often their political systems
    have been a tremendous handicap to them, but there is progress on the
    democratic front there. But we've got to give them the help that we can,
    whilst making sure that we're not just channeling aid, but we're
    actually making sure that

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    that money, when it goes in, is going to be used properly and where
    we're trying to alleviate the debt burden so that they can come out of
    this situation of crisis that they've been in.
        President Clinton. I think to be fair, when Prime Minister Blair
    took over the head of the G-8, one of his initiatives was to have the
    right kind of debt relief. And we have embraced, now for a little more
    than a year, a strategy for the highly indebted poor countries that says
    we will--we know we should do debt relief, but it won't do any good
    unless they do things to help themselves. So we'll have a structured
    system where we'll give much, much more help to the highly indebted poor
    countries that actually undertake their own reform, so that we believe
    the debt relief will actually amount to money being invested in their
    future in a positive way.
        And when I went to Africa, one of the things I saw was the countries
    with honest governments can channel the energy, the intelligence, the
    passion of a wonderful people and get a lot done. So I'm more optimistic
    about Africa than I was before I went there. But I do believe that we
    should help those who are trying to help themselves.
        Prime Minister Blair. It's interesting. It's one of the great
    lessons of the 20th century that democracy and prosperity in the end go
    together.

    The Euro and the Dollar

        Mr. Frost. In terms of prosperity, one lightening question occurs to
    me. The euro--we're talking about the euro here--what will be the
    implications of a strong euro on the dollar, Mr. President? Could it be
    bad news for the dollar?
        President Clinton. I don't think so. It could become, some time in
    the future, an alternative currency. You know, people might trade in the
    euro as well as the dollar. It could become--a lot of transactions might
    be done in the euro as well as the dollar. But I don't see that as a
    threatening thing. I think anything that brings free people closer
    together and increases prosperity in a democratic way, that makes it
    more likely to be broadly shared, is positive.
        So I think as long as that's what's going on--you know, Europe--a
    unified Europe, it seems to me, is still committed to freedom, still
    committed to openness, still committed to a certain generosity of
    spirit, and I think that has to be good for the world. What we're trying
    to do, slowly but surely, is to integrate political and economic and
    social systems of the world not in ways that diminish national
    sovereignty but that alleviate the problems of the world and enable us
    to tackle together those things we can't solve alone.

    Advice for Prime Minister Blair

        Mr. Frost. And you have a great working relationship, the two of
    you, but one difference between you, of course, is that Mr. President,
    you are in your second term and the Prime Minister is early in his first
    term. What is the most important advice to someone in their first time
    in order to get into their second term?
        President Clinton. Oh, I think he's doing it. I think that--the most
    important thing I think he can do is to keep the commitments he made in
    the campaign and to stay in touch with the people and to not be deterred
    from doing the public's business. You know, people, when they hire you
    to do these jobs, they want you to work on their affairs. And then when
    you get in them, there's all sorts of static designed to break your
    concentration. You have to ignore it and stay at the business.
        But I think my advice would be to--he had a very detailed theory
    about why he wanted to be Prime Minister and where he wanted Great
    Britain to go, and of course, I have a lot of sympathy with the ideas he
    put forward, and he's doing a good job of doing what he promised to do.
    And I think that's the most important thing. And then I think as--the
    more you get into it, then I think the more you begin to think about
    what's it going to be like when my children are my age; what's it going
    to be like when my grandchildren are here. And the more he serves, the
    more he'll have an impact on that as well.

    Northern Ireland Peace Process

        Mr. Frost. And along the way, one of the things you've both had to
    also conquer is to bring up your families under the glare of all that
    publicity when the children go to school and all of that. But that's
    fascinating.
        Well, at the end of our time, let's return for a moment to where we
    began. Are you both confident, but not complacent as politicians always
    say, are you confident that the Northern Ireland people on Friday will
    take a decision which you believe passionately is the right decision, a
    positive decision, that they will feel the

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    hand of history on their shoulder? Are you confident about that?
        Prime Minister Blair. I mean, I am confident, but I do know that
    they are considering this really with their heart and their head, and
    they're going into tremendous detail. And I think that over this next
    few days it's important that people put their concerns to people like
    myself and, perhaps, particularly to me and that I answer those
    concerns, so that people go in and vote yes, in a spirit of real
    optimism and confidence themselves about the future. And they can do
    that.
        Mr. Frost. And do you have to have, or not--you don't have to have a
    majority of over 50 percent in each community in Northern Ireland, don't
    have to have that. Do you want that? Do you need it?
        Prime Minister Blair. No, we don't have to have it, but I want as
    big a vote as possible in both communities. And I want this to be an
    agreement where we, for once and for all, we get rid of the zero-sum
    game in Northern Ireland politics which says if one side is happy with
    something, that means I'm unhappy. Both communities, both traditions, if
    you like, within Northern Ireland can be satisfied with this, because
    for the Unionists, the principle of consent is there; for the
    Nationalist community there is fairness and equity of treatment, the
    recognition of the Nationalist identity.
        That's what this is--you know, I said this on Good Friday after that
    marathon negotiation we went through, that in the end it's not a fudge,
    this agreement; it is an historic settlement of Nationalist and Unionist
    aspirations. And what it means is that in a new world, 2 years off the
    millennium, where everything is changing around the Republic of Ireland,
    Europe, Britain, our relations with the rest of the world, where people
    can argue their case free in the knowledge that they can do so
    democratically rather than by resorting to violence--now, that's the
    historic settlement. And that's why I want as many people in both
    communities to come out and support it.
        Mr. Frost. What are your thoughts, Mr. President? Are you confident?
    Can this be a win-win situation for both sides?
        President Clinton. Oh, absolutely. There's no question in my view
    that, if they vote for the accord, it will turn out to be a win-win. I
    mean, think about where the world is going to be in 12 years. Just think
    about 12 years from now--2010. You will have a much more globalized
    economy; you'll have both Great Britain and the Republic of Ireland more
    involved in the European economy, more involved in the rest of the
    world, and more involved with each other, meeting at the tip of Northern
    Ireland, economically and psychologically, no matter what the legal
    framework is.
        Now, the people that are at that vortex are going to have a very
    interesting, very rich, very good life if they vote to live it together.
    If they vote to stay apart, they're still going to be frustrated,
    distrustful, angry, and a little bit left out. And I think all of us, we
    have hope and fear inside. I say all the time, we all have little scales
    inside, and some days we wake up with hope weighing down, some days with
    fear weighing down. I think on election day the clearheadedness of the
    Irish people will prevail in Northern Ireland. I think that both
    communities will go in and vote for the future.
        I just ask them to think about what the world will be like, what
    these islands will be like just 12 years from now, and what they want
    Northern Ireland to be. We know that democracies of diverse people are
    interesting places to be when your uniqueness is valued, but you
    understand that what you have in common as human beings is more
    important than what divides you. That's a fundamental thing we know. And
    I believe they'll accept that on election day.
        Mr. Frost. Thank you so much. Because the other part of it is that
    when Mr. Willy Ross says, or is quoted as saying, ``Look, if there's a
    no vote, then they'll all just get in and renegotiate it.'' That's not
    on, is it?
        Prime Minister Blair. Well, no. I mean, look, I always say to
    people, of course, ``We're here, and we'll try and pick up the pieces as
    best we can.'' But I mean it would be fundamentally wrong to say that to
    people. We would be in a situation, too, where it wouldn't be the status
    quo, where actually there is quite a lot of hope about, and people do
    feel they're making progress. We go backwards.
        I mean the one thing I've learned in this whole process is if it
    doesn't go forward, it goes backwards. It never stays in the same place.
    So of course, we're the government, we pick up the pieces when
    everything goes wrong. But I think what the President has just said
    there, and has said as a visionist, what people can aspire to----

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        President Clinton. And the answer to that is, this agreement--I
    mean, I can see that even as an outsider--this agreement sets up a
    framework to embody in a thousand ways the principle of consent. If he
    doesn't like some detail, then the people will be perfectly free to
    modify it in the future within the framework of the agreement. So why
    take the risk that this moment won't present itself again for another
    generation, when anything that he believes is wrong with it, if he
    thinks he can persuade a majority he's right, can be modified by the
    people themselves in the future?
        Mr. Frost. Thank you, both, very much, indeed. Mr. Prime Minister,
    Mr. President, thank you so much.
        President Clinton. Thank you, David.
        Prime Minister Blair. Thank you.

    Note: The interview began at 4:37 p.m. in the Weston Park estate for
    later broadcast on ``Breakfast With Frost'' on BBC1 television. In his
    remarks, the President referred to Prime Minister Bertie Ahern of
    Ireland; President Soeharto of Indonesia; and Prime Minister Ryutaro
    Hashimoto of Japan. Prime Minister Blair referred to the Royal Ulster
    Constabulary (RUC). Mr. Frost referred to Ulster Unionist Party leader
    David Trimble and Member of Parliament Willie Ross; and Prime Minister
    Inder Kumar Gujral of India. A tape was not available for verification
    of the content of this interview.