[Background Material and Data on Programs within the Jurisdiction of the Committee on Ways and Means (Green Book)]
[Appendices]
[Appendix I. Budget Tables]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]


[1998 Green Book] APPENDIX I. BUDGET TABLES

                                           TABLE I-1.--THE TEN-YEAR BUDGET OUTLOOK, BY FISCAL YEAR, 1997-2007                                           
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                     Year                                               
                  Budget category                   ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       1997     1998     1999     2000     2001      2002      2003     2004     2005     2006     2007 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                            In billions of dollars                                      
                                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Revenues...........................................   $1,507   $1,566   $1,633   $1,705    $1,781    $1,660   $1,943   $2,033   $2,127   $2,227   $2,333
Outlays:                                                                                                                                                
    Discretionary..................................      549      545      562      579       597       615      633      652      672      693      715
    Mandatory:                                                                                                                                          
        Social Security............................      363      381      399      420       441       464      487      512      539      568      598
        Medicare...................................      209      227      248      273       286       314      339      368      410      438      464
        Medicaid...................................       99      105      114      123       133       144      156      169      183      199      216
        Federal civilian and military retirement...       76       79       83       87        91        95       99      104      109      115      121
        Other......................................      174      188      195      209       210       222      230      238      251      253      257
                                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Subtotal.................................      921      980    1,039    1,112     1,161     1,239    1,311    1,391    1,492    1,573    1,656
                                                    ====================================================================================================
    Deposit insurance..............................      -12       -4       -3       -1    -0.483    -0.291       -1       -1       -1       -1       -1
    Net interest...................................      248      252      260      266       271       278      288      300      311      325      341
    Offsetting receipts............................      -83      -84      -77      -78       -81       -84      -87      -89      -92      -95      -99
                                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Total....................................    1,622    1,689    1,782    1,877     1,947     2,048    2,145    2,253    2,383    2,495    2,611
                                                    ====================================================================================================
Deficit............................................      115      122      149      172       167       188      202      220      255      268      278
Debt held by the public............................    3,864    4,004    4,167    4,353     4,534     4,735    4,949    5,179    5,445    5,722    6,011
                                                    ====================================================================================================
                                                                                            As a percentage of GDP                                      
                                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Revenues...........................................     19.2     19.1     19.0     19.0      18.9      18.8     18.8     18.8     18.8     18.8     18.8
Outlays:                                                                                                                                                
    Discretionary..................................      7.0      6.7      6.6      6.4       6.3       6.2      6.1      6.0      5.9      5.9      5.8
    Mandatory:                                                                                                                                          
        Social Security............................      4.6      4.7      4.7      4.7       4.7       4.7      4.7      4.7      4.8      4.8      4.8
        Medicare...................................      2.7      2.8      2.9      3.0       3.0       3.2      3.3      3.4      3.6      3.7      3.7
        Medicaid...................................      1.3      1.3      1.3      1.4       1.4       1.5      1.5      1.6      1.6      1.7      1.7
        Civil service and military retirement......      1.0      1.0      1.0      1.0       1.0       1.0      1.0      1.0      1.0      1.0      1.0
        Other......................................      2.2      2.3      2.3      2.3       2.2       2.2      2.2      2.2      2.2      2.1      2.1
                                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Subtotal.................................     11.8     12.1     12.2     12.4      12.3      12.6     12.7     12.9     13.2     13.3     13.3
                                                    ====================================================================================================
    Deposit insurance..............................     -0.2    (\1\)    (\1\)    (\1\)     (\1\)     (\1\)    (\1\)    (\1\)    (\1\)    (\1\)    (\1\)
    Net interest...................................      3.2      3.1      3.0      3.0       2.9       2.8      2.8      2.8      2.8      2.7      2.8
    Offsetting receipts............................     -1.1       -1     -0.9     -0.9      -0.9      -0.9     -0.8     -0.8     -0.8     -0.8     -0.8
                                                    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Total....................................     20.7     20.6     20.8     20.9      20.7      20.7     20.7     20.8     20.8     21.1     21.1
                                                    ====================================================================================================
Deficit............................................      1.5      1.5      1.7      1.9       1.8       1.9      2.0      2.0      2.3      2.3      2.2
Debt held by the public............................     49.4     48.9     48.6     48.4      48.1      48.0     47.9     47.9     48.1     48.4    48.6 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Less than 0.05 percent of GDP.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                        
 Note.--Congressional Budget Office expects that under current policies, revenues will remain just around 19 percent of GDP (see the table above), but  
  spending growth will outstrip revenues. Within the spending totals, some categories grow and others shrink. The government's big health care programs--
  Medicare and Medicaid--continue to grow, and together they represent 5 percent of GDP in 2003 (compared with 4.1 percent in 1998). Net interest       
  outlays inch down from 3.1 percent of GDP in 1998 to 2.8 percent in 2003. Social Security benefits stay at about 4.7 percent of GDP. In 2003, the big 
  demands that the baby-boom generation will place on Social Security and Medicare are 5 years away. Most other spending programs roughly preserve their
  1998 shares. A sole exception is discretionary spending--defense, international, and domestic. These programs are assumed in the baseline projections,
  to keep up with inflation once the Budget Enforcement Act's caps expire in 1996. They, therefore, dwindle gradually as a share of GDP, from 6.7       
  percent in 1998 (already a historic low) to 6.1 percent in 2003.                                                                                      
In certain instances, subtotals, totals and the deficit are not exact due to rounding.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                        
 Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                                                                   


  TABLE I-2.--CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE PROJECTIONS FOR OUTLAYS UNDER CURRENT POLICY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS WITH DISCRETIONARY INFLATION, FISCAL YEARS  
                                                                        1996-2007                                                                       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          Actual                                                                                        
                     Outlay category                       1996    1997    1998    1999    2000    2001    2002    2003    2004    2005    2006    2007 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                              In billions of dollars                                    
                                                                                                                                                        
                                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Discretionary: \1\                                                                                                                                      
    Defense.............................................    $266    $268    $270    $276    $287    $289    $301    $310    $319    $332    $339    $345
    Domestic and international..........................     267     279     285     292     299     307     316     325     334     345     355     366
    Violent crime reduction trust fund..................       1       2       3       4       5       5       5       5       5       6       6       6
    Unspecified reductions..............................       0       0     -13     -10     -11      -4      -7      -7      -7     -10      -6      -3
                                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal..........................................     534     549     545     562     579     597     615     633     652     672     693     715
                                                         ===============================================================================================
Mandatory spending......................................     858     909     976   1,036   1,111   1,161   1,239   1,311   1,390   1,491   1,572   1,655
Offsetting receipts.....................................     -73     -83     -84     -77     -78     -81     -84     -87     -89     -92     -95     -99
Net interest............................................     241     248     252     260     266     271     278     288     300     311     325     341
                                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total.............................................   1,560   1,622   1,689   1,782   1,877   1,947   2,048   2,145   2,253   2,383   2,495   2,611
          Onbudget......................................   1,260   1,312   1,365   1,449   1,531   1,585   1,670   1,751   1,843   1,954   2,047   2,142
          Offbudget \2\.................................     300     310     324     333     346     362     378     394     410     428     448     469
                                                                                                                                                        
                                                         ===============================================================================================
                                                                                              As a percentage of GDP                                    
                                                                                                                                                        
                                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Discretionary: \1\                                                                                                                                      
    Defense.............................................     3.6     3.4     3.3     3.2     3.2     3.1     3.0     3.0     3.0     2.9     2.9     2.9
    Domestic and international..........................     3.6     3.6     3.5     3.4     3.3     3.3     3.2     3.1     3.1     3.0     3.0     3.0
    Violent crime reduction trust fund..................   (\3\)   (\3\)   (\3\)     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1     0.1   (\3\)   (\3\)   (\3\)
    Unspecified reductions..............................       0       0    -0.2    -0.1    -0.1   (\3\)    -0.1    -0.1    -0.1    -0.1    -0.1   (\3\)
                                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal..........................................     7.1     7.0     6.7     6.6     6.4     6.3     6.2     6.1     6.0     5.9     5.9     5.8
                                                         ===============================================================================================
Mandatory spending......................................    11.5    11.6    11.9    12.1    12.4    12.3    12.6    12.7    12.9    13.2    13.3    13.4
Offsetting receipts.....................................    -1.0    -1.1    -1.0    -0.9    -0.9    -0.9    -0.9    -0.8    -0.8    -0.8    -0.8    -0.8
Net interest............................................     3.2     3.2     3.1     3.0     3.0     2.9     2.8     2.8     2.8     2.8     2.7     2.8
                                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total.............................................    20.8    20.7    20.6    20.8    20.9    20.7    20.7    20.8    20.8    21.1    21.1    21.1
          Onbudget......................................    16.8    16.8    16.7    16.9    17.0    16.8    16.9    16.9    17.0    17.3    17.3    17.3
          Offbudget \2\.................................     4.0     4.0     4.0     3.9     3.9     3.8     3.8     3.8     3.8     3.8     3.8    3.8 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Projections assume that discretionary spending is adjusted for inflation up to the statutory caps that are in effect through 1998. All discretionary
  spending other than spending from the violent crime reduction trust fund is assumed to equal the caps in 1998 and to grow from that level at the rate 
  of inflation in later years. Unspecified reductions show the cuts that would be needed to satisfy the caps.                                           
\2\ Social Security and the Postal Service.                                                                                                             
\3\ Less than 0.05 percent of gross domestic product.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                        
 Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                                                                   


TABLE I-3.--OUTLAYS FOR MAJOR SPENDING CATEGORIES IN NOMINAL DOLLARS AND AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP, SELECTED FISCAL
                                                  YEARS 1965-96                                                 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Spending category           1965      1970      1975      1980      1985      1990      1995      1996  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           In nominal dollars (billions)                        
                                                                                                                
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
 Defense discretionary..........     $51.0     $81.9     $87.6    $134.6    $253.1    $300.1    $273.5    $266.0
International discretionary.....       4.7       4.0       8.2      12.8      17.4      19.1      20.1      18.3
Domestic discretionary..........      22.1      34.3      62.0     128.7     145.2     181.2     252.0     250.0
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, discretionary.....      77.8     120.2     157.8     276.1     415.7     500.4     545.7     534.4
                                 ===============================================================================
Social Security.................      17.1      29.6      63.6     117.1     186.4     246.5     333.3     347.1
Medicare........................         0       6.8      14.1      34.0      69.7     107.4     177.1     191.3
Medicaid........................       0.3       2.7       6.8      14.0      22.7      41.1      89.1      92.0
AFDC, SSI, food stamps..........       2.8       4.7      14.1      22.2      30.4      39.7      67.2      67.1
Deposit insurance...............      -0.4      -0.5       0.5      -0.4      -2.2      57.9     -17.9      -8.4
Other entitlements and                                                                                          
 mandatories....................      12.0      17.7      52.2      75.4      94.2      75.3      92.4      95.8
Net interest....................       8.6      14.4      23.2      52.5     129.5     184.2     232.2     241.1
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.......................     118.2     195.6     332.3     590.9     946.4   1,252.5   1,519.1   1,560.3
                                 ===============================================================================
Memo: GDP.......................     687.0   1,009.6   1,554.2   2,718.9   4,108.0   5,682.9   7,180.7   7,484.7
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              As a percentage of GDP                            
                                                                                                                
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defense discretionary...........       7.4       8.1       5.6       5.0       6.2       5.3       3.8       3.6
International discretionary.....       0.7       0.4       0.5       0.5       0.4       0.3       0.3       0.2
Domestic discretionary..........       3.2       3.4       4.0       4.7       3.5       3.2       3.5       3.3
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, discretionary.....      11.3      11.9      10.2      10.2      10.1       8.8       7.6       7.1
                                 ===============================================================================
Social Security.................       2.5       2.9       4.1       4.3       4.5       4.3       4.6       4.6
Medicare........................       0.0       0.7       0.9       1.2       1.7       1.9       2.5       2.6
Medicaid........................       0.0       0.3       0.4       0.5       0.6       0.7       1.2       1.2
AFDC, SSI, food stamps..........       0.4       0.5       0.9       0.8       0.7       0.7       0.9       0.9
Deposit insurance...............      -0.1      -0.0         0         0      -0.1       1.0      -0.2      -0.1
Other entitlements and                                                                                          
 mandatories....................       1.7       1.8       3.4       2.8       2.3       1.3       1.3       1.3
Net interest....................       1.3       1.4       1.5       1.9       3.2       3.2       3.2       3.2
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.......................      17.2      19.4      21.4      21.7      23.0      22.0      21.2      20.8
                                 ===============================================================================
Memo: Social Security, Medicare                                                                                 
 and Medicaid...................       2.5       3.9       5.4       6.0       6.8       6.9       8.3       8.4
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                            As a percentage of budget                           
                                                                                                                
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Defense discretionary...........      43.2      41.9      26.4      22.8      26.7      24.0      18.0      17.0
International discretionary.....       4.0       2.0       2.5       2.2       1.8       1.5       1.3       1.2
Domestic discretionary..........      18.7      17.5      18.7      21.8      15.3      14.5      16.6      16.0
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, discretionary.....      65.8      61.4      47.5      46.7      43.9      40.0      35.9      34.2
                                 ===============================================================================
Social Security.................      14.4      15.2      19.1      19.8      19.7      19.7      21.9      22.2
Medicare........................         0       3.5       4.2       5.8       7.4       8.6      11.7      12.3
Medicaid........................       0.3       1.4       2.0       2.4       2.4       3.3       5.9       5.9
AFDC, SSI, food stamps..........       2.4       2.4       4.2       3.8       3.2       3.2       4.4       4.3
Deposit insurance...............      -0.3      -0.3       0.2      -0.1      -0.2       4.6      -1.2      -0.5
Other entitlements and                                                                                          
 mandatories....................      10.2       9.0      15.8      12.8      10.0       6.0       6.1       6.1
Net interest....................       7.3       7.4       7.0       8.9      13.7      14.7      15.3      15.5
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.......................     100.0     100.0     100.0     100.0     100.0     100.0     100.0    100.0 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note.--Totals may not be exact due to rounding.                                                                 
                                                                                                                
 Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                           


      TABLE I-4.--CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE MANDATORY OUTLAY PROJECTIONS FOR SELECTED PROGRAMS WITHIN THE     
                     JURISDICTION OF THE COMMITTEE ON WAYS AND MEANS, FISCAL YEARS 1996-2002                    
                                            [In billions of dollars]                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                              1996                                                              
                  Program                    actual     1997      1998      1999      2000      2001      2002  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Social Security...........................    $374.4      $363    $380.8    $399.5    $419.6    $441.3    $463.7
    Old-age and survivors insurance.......     303.9     316.6     330.9     345.8     361.8     379.3     397.1
    Disability insurance..................      43.5      46.4      49.9      53.7      57.8      62.0      66.6
Medicare..................................     193.7     208.8       227     248.2     272.9     285.7     313.7
    Hospital insurance....................     126.5     136.1     147.3     159.8     175.1     183.1     200.2
    Supplementary medical insurance.......      67.2      72.7      79.7      88.4      97.8     102.6     113.5
Trade adjustment..........................      -0.1      -0.1      -0.1      -0.1      -0.1      -0.1      -0.1
Unemployment compensation.................      22.8      23.0      24.5      26.5      28.1      29.6      30.8
Family support \1\........................      17.6      20.1      21.8      22.2      22.8      22.8      22.9
Earned income tax credit outlays..........      19.2      20.8      21.7      22.5      23.3      24.2      25.0
Supplemental Security Income..............      24.1      27.3      26.1      28.0      32.6      29.7      34.6
Social Services Block Grant...............       2.5       2.6       2.5       2.6       2.6       2.5       2.5
Children and family services programs.....       4.8       5.2       5.3       5.5       5.7       5.9       6.0
Foster care and adoption assistance.......       3.7       3.9       4.2       4.6       5.1       5.5       5.9
SMI and HI premiums.......................     -20.0     -20.2     -21.4     -22.4     -23.4     -24.5     -25.6
                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total...............................     615.9     654.6     692.6     737.3     789.4     822.8    879.6 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Beginning in fiscal year 1997, the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of 1996  
  alters the way in which family support payments are administered. A contingency fund, a child care entitlement
  to the States, Temporary Assistance for Needy Families and children's research and technical assistance will  
  be added to the already existing, but reduced, family support payments that are granted.                      
                                                                                                                
 Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                           


                             TABLE I-5.--HISTORICAL OUTLAYS FOR ENTITLEMENTS AND OTHER MANDATORY SPENDING EXCLUDING DEPOSIT INSURANCE, SELECTED FISCAL YEARS 1975-96                            
                                                                                    [In billions of dollars]                                                                                    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        Category                           1975    1980    1982    1983    1984    1985    1986    1987    1988    1989    1990    1991    1992    1993    1994    1995    1996 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Means-tested programs:                                                                                                                                                                          
    Student loans \1\...................................    $0.1    $1.4    $3.0    $2.6    $3.2    $3.5    $3.3    $2.5    $2.8    $3.9    $4.4    $4.8    $1.7    $2.2    $2.8    $4.4    $3.6
    Medicaid............................................     6.8    14.0    17.4    19.0    20.1    22.7    25.0    27.4    30.5    34.6    41.1    52.5    67.8    75.8    82.0    89.1    92.0
    Food stamps.........................................     4.6     9.1    11.0    12.7    12.4    12.5    12.4    12.4    13.1    13.7    15.9    19.6    22.8    24.6    25.4    25.6    25.4
    Child nutrition.....................................     1.5     3.4     3.0     3.3     3.5     3.7     3.8     4.0     4.3     4.6     5.0     5.5     6.1     6.6     7.0     7.5     7.9
    Earned income tax credit............................       0     1.3     1.2     1.2     1.2     1.1     1.4     1.4     2.7     4.0     4.4     4.9     8.2     9.4    11.7    15.2    19.2
    Supplemental Security Income........................     4.3     5.7     6.9     7.9     7.6     8.7     9.3     9.9    11.4    11.5    11.5    14.8    17.9    21.2    24.5    24.5    24.1
    Family support......................................     5.1     7.3     8.0     8.4     8.9     9.2     9.9    10.5    10.8    11.2    12.2    14.1    15.7    16.4    17.3    18.1    17.6
    Veterans' pensions..................................     2.7     3.6     3.9     3.9     3.9     3.8     3.9     3.8     3.9     4.0     3.6     4.0     3.7     3.5     3.4     3.0     2.8
    Other...............................................     0.3     0.1     0.4     0.3     0.5     0.8     0.9     1.0     1.0     1.3     1.8     2.1     2.5     2.7     3.0     3.2     3.7
                                                         ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total, means-tested programs......................    25.4    45.9    54.8    59.3    61.3    66.0    69.9    72.9    80.5    88.8    99.9   122.3   146.5   162.3   177.3   190.6   196.3
                                                         =======================================================================================================================================
Nonmeans-tested programs:                                                                                                                                                                       
    Medicare............................................    14.1    34.0    49.2    55.5    61.0    69.7    74.2    79.9    85.7    94.3   107.4   114.2   129.4   143.2   159.6   177.1   191.3
    Social Security.....................................    63.6   117.1   153.9   168.5   176.1   186.4   196.5   205.1   216.8   230.4   246.5   266.7   285.1   302.0   316.9   333.3   347.1
                                                         ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal..........................................    77.7   151.1   203.1   224.0   237.1   256.1   270.7   285.0   302.5   324.7   353.9   380.9   414.5   445.1   476.5   510.4   538.4
                                                         =======================================================================================================================================
Other retirement and disability:                                                                                                                                                                
    Federal civilian \3\................................     7.4    15.5    20.6    22.1    23.3    24.6    25.0    27.6    30.3    31.8    33.7    36.9    37.0    38.8    40.3    42.7    43.6
    Military............................................     6.2    11.9    14.9    15.9    16.5    15.8    17.6    18.1    19.0    20.2    21.5    23.1    24.5    25.7    26.7    27.8    28.8
    Other...............................................     4.7     4.7     5.2     5.2     4.9     5.1     4.9     5.1     4.9     5.2     4.7     4.4     5.1     4.2     5.3     4.7     4.8
                                                         ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal..........................................    18.3    32.1    40.7    43.2    44.7    45.5    47.5    50.8    54.2    57.2    59.9    64.4    66.6    68.7    72.3    75.2    77.3
                                                         =======================================================================================================================================
Unemployment compensation...............................    12.8    16.9    22.2    29.7    17.0    15.8    16.1    15.5    13.6    13.9    17.5    25.1    36.9    35.4    26.4    21.3    22.6
Other programs:                                                                                                                                                                                 
    Farm price supports.................................     0.6     2.8    11.7    18.9     7.3    17.7    25.8    22.4    12.2    10.6     6.5    10.1     9.2    15.6     9.9     5.8     5.0
    Social services.....................................     2.9     3.7     3.4     3.5     4.4     3.5     4.0     4.1     4.2     4.6     5.1     5.6     5.2     5.1     5.6     5.5     5.0
    Veterans' benefits \3\..............................    10.2    11.0    12.5    12.7    12.8    12.9    12.9    13.0    14.8    14.9    13.4    14.4    15.7    17.0    18.0    18.3    17.2
    General revenue sharing.............................     6.1     6.8     4.6     4.6     4.6     4.6     5.1     0.1       0       0       0       0       0       0       0       0       0
    Other...............................................    10.4    21.2    19.8    15.8    17.1    27.9     7.7     6.4    12.3    12.5    10.4    13.1    16.7    12.9     4.5    12.3     4.5
                                                         ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal..........................................    30.2    45.5    52.0    55.5    46.2    66.6    55.5    46.0    43.5    42.6    35.4    43.2    46.8    50.6    38.0    41.9    31.8
                                                         ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total, nonmeans-tested programs...................   139.0   245.6   318.0   352.4   345.0   384.0   389.8   397.3   413.8   438.4   466.7   513.6   564.8   599.8   613.2   648.8   670.1
      Total outlays.....................................   164.4   291.5   372.8   411.7   406.3   450.0   459.7   470.2   494.3   527.2   566.6   635.9   711.3   762.1   790.6   839.4  866.4 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Formerly known as guaranteed student loans.                                                                                                                                                 
\2\ Includes Civil Service, Foreign Service, Coast Guard, other retirement programs, and annuitants' health benefits.                                                                           
\3\ Includes veterans' compensation, readjustment benefits, life insurance, and housing programs.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                                
 Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                                                                                                           


                                            TABLE I-6.--CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE OUTLAY PROJECTIONS FOR MANDATORY SPENDING, FISCAL YEARS 1996-2007                                           
                                                                            [By fiscal year, in billions of dollars]                                                                            
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                Actual                                                                                                                          
                                                                 1996       1997       1998       1999       2000       2001       2002       2003       2004       2005       2006       2007  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                     Means-tested programs                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                                                                                                
Medicaid....................................................    $91.990    $98.599   $105.308   $113.619   $122.861   $132.792   $143.783   $155.863   $168.685   $183.113   $198.937   $216.231
Food stamps \1\.............................................     25.422     23.794     24.450     25.884     27.226     28.645     29.417     30.197     31.153     32.142     33.015     33.835
Supplemental Security Income................................     24.125     27.258     26.135     28.001     32.593     29.733     34.638     37.030     39.531     45.565     44.875     43.866
Family support..............................................     17.601     20.121     21.825     22.194     22.767     22.836     22.889     23.226     23.586     23.938     24.291     24.659
Veterans' pensions..........................................      2.834      2.975      2.989      3.399      3.751      3.203      3.604      3.665      3.733      4.154      3.863      3.747
Child nutrition.............................................      7.875      8.221      8.474      8.895      9.353      9.829     10.314     10.809     11.314     11.832     12.370     12.919
Earned income credit........................................     19.159     20.822     21.685     22.495     23.340     24.216     25.036     26.001     26.961     27.920     28.913     29.890
Student loans \2\...........................................      3.602      0.294      3.305      3.550      3.669      3.756      3.793      3.916      3.997      4.074      4.119      4.196
Other.......................................................      3.691      3.904      4.222      4.621      5.054      5.482      5.905      6.347      6.806      7.269      7.755      8.270
                                                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total, means-tested programs............................    196.299    205.988    218.393    232.658    250.614    260.492    279.379    297.054    315.766    340.007    358.138    377.613
                                                             ===================================================================================================================================
                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                   Nonmeans-tested programs                                                     
                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                                                                                                
Social Security.............................................    347.051    362.966    380.747    399.470    419.516    440.719    463.650    487.404    512.432    539.157    567.561    598.397
Medicare....................................................    191.310    208.810    226.966    248.158    272.964    285.635    313.729    339.352    368.248    409.800    437.632    464.075
                                                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal................................................    538.361    571.776    607.713    647.628    692.480    726.354    777.379    826.756    880.680    948.957   1005.193   1062.472
                                                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other retirement and disability:                                                                                                                                                                
  Federal civilian \3\......................................     43.636     46.140     48.276     50.879     53.689     56.481     59.491     62.817     66.463     70.448     74.734     79.268
  Military..................................................     28.831     30.092     31.171     32.246     33.330     34.397     35.491     36.613     37.768     38.892     40.241     41.540
  Other.....................................................      4.847      4.367      4.354      4.374      4.582      4.777      4.714      4.749      4.800      4.840      4.984      4.969
                                                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal................................................     77.314     80.599     83.801     87.499     91.601     95.655     99.696    104.179    109.031    114.180    119.959    125.777
                                                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unemployment compensation...................................     22.583     22.654     24.210     26.154     27.824     29.243     30.414     31.637     32.894     34.236     35.595     36.977
Deposit insurance...........................................     -8.405    -12.481     -4.263     -2.854     -1.168     -0.483     -0.291     -0.688     -0.881     -0.919     -1.093     -1.177
Other programs:                                                                                                                                                                                 
  Veterans' benefits \4\....................................     17.243     18.439     19.957     20.843     22.800     20.270     22.161     22.631     23.098     25.269     24.126     22.877
  Farm price supports.......................................      5.031      5.744      7.447      7.183      6.651      5.493      5.179      5.155      5.169      5.146      5.146      5.158
  Social services...........................................      5.019      5.268      5.309      5.411      5.503      5.522      5.581      6.027      6.128      6.206      6.297      6.397
  Credit reform liquidating accounts........................     -9.217     -7.788     -5.885     -5.875     -5.685     -5.681     -5.486     -5.507     -5.504     -5.738     -6.246     -6.312
  Other.....................................................     13.684     18.517     19.290     17.852     20.225     23.736     24.946     23.447     23.816     23.822     24.426     24.802
                                                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal................................................     31.760     40.180     46.118     45.414     49.494     49.340     52.381     51.753     52.707     54.705     53.749     52.922
                                                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total, nonmeans-tested programs.........................    661.613    702.728    757.579    803.841    860.231    900.109    959.579   1013.637   1074.431   1151.159   1213.403   1276.971
                                                             -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
        Grand total, all mandatory spending.................    857.912    908.716    975.972   1036.499   1110.845   1160.601   1238.958   1310.691  1,390.197   1491.166   1571.541  1654.584 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Includes nutrition assistance to Puerto Rico.                                                                                                                                               
\2\ Formerly known as guaranteed student loans.                                                                                                                                                 
\3\ Includes Civil Service, Foreign Service, Coast Guard, other retirement programs, and annuitants' health benefits.                                                                           
\4\ Includes veterans' compensation, readjustment benefits, life insurance, and housing programs.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                                
 Note.--Spending for major benefit programs shown in this table includes benefits only. Outlays for administrative costs of most benefit programs are classified as nondefense discretionary    
  spending, and Medicare premium collections are offsetting receipts.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                
 Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                                                                                                           


                     TABLE I-7.--OUTLAYS FOR MAJOR SPENDING CATEGORIES, FISCAL YEARS 1962-96                    
                                            [In billions of dollars]                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   Entitlements                                                 
                                         National    and other     Nondefense      Net     Offsetting    Total  
              Fiscal year                defense     mandatory   discretionary   interest   receipts    outlays 
                                                     spending       spending                                    
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1962..................................      $52.6        $34.7         $19.5         $6.9       -$6.8     $106.8
1963..................................       53.7         36.2          21.5          7.7        -7.9      111.3
1964..................................       55.0         38.9          24.1          8.2        -7.7      118.5
1965..................................       51.0         39.7          26.8          8.6        -7.9      118.2
1966..................................       59.0         43.4          31.2          9.4        -8.4      134.5
                                                                                                                
1967..................................       72.0         50.9          34.4         10.3       -10.2      157.5
1968..................................       82.2         59.7          35.8         11.1       -10.6      178.1
1969..................................       82.7         64.7          34.6         12.7       -11.0      183.6
1970..................................       81.9         72.6          38.3         14.4       -11.5      195.6
1971..................................       79.0         86.9          43.5         14.8       -14.1      210.2
                                                                                                                
1972..................................       79.3        100.9          49.1         15.5       -14.1      230.7
1973..................................       77.1        116.1          53.1         17.3       -18.0      245.7
1974..................................       80.7        131.0          57.3         21.4       -21.2      269.4
1975..................................       87.6        169.6          70.2         23.2       -18.3      332.3
1976..................................       89.9        189.4          85.4         26.7       -19.6      371.8
                                                                                                                
1977..................................       97.5        204.0          99.3         29.9       -21.5      409.2
1978..................................      104.6        227.7         113.8         35.5       -22.8      458.7
1979..................................      116.8        247.3         122.9         42.6       -25.6      503.5
1980..................................      134.6        291.5         141.5         52.5       -29.2      590.9
1981..................................      158.0        339.6         149.7         68.8       -37.9      678.2
                                                                                                                
1982..................................      185.9        370.9         139.9         85.0       -36.0      745.8
1983..................................      209.9        410.7         143.3         89.8       -45.3      808.4
1984..................................      228.0        405.8         151.2        111.1       -44.2      851.8
1985..................................      253.1        448.4         162.6        129.5       -47.1      946.4
1986..................................      273.8        462.8         164.5        136.0       -45.9      990.3
                                                                                                                
1987..................................      282.5        474.4         161.5        138.7       -53.0    1,003.9
1988..................................      290.9        505.3         173.4        151.8       -57.0    1,064.1
1989..................................      304.0        549.6         184.7        169.3       -63.9    1,143.2
1990..................................      300.1        627.3         200.3        184.2       -58.8    1,252.7
1991..................................      319.7        702.6         213.6        194.5      -106.0    1,323.8
                                                                                                                
1992..................................      302.6        716.6         231.9        199.4       -68.8    1,380.9
1993..................................      292.4        736.8         248.5        198.8       -67.1    1,408.2
1994..................................      282.3        784.1         261.6          203       -69.1    1,460.8
1995..................................      273.6        818.1         272.1        232.2       -80.2    1,519.1
1996..................................      266.0        857.9         268.4        241.1       -73.0   1,560.3 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                            


         TABLE I-8.--OUTLAYS FOR MAJOR SPENDING CATEGORIES, AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP, FISCAL YEARS 1962-96        
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   Entitlements                                                 
                                         National    and other     Nondefense      Net     Offsetting    Total  
              Fiscal year                defense     mandatory   discretionary   interest   receipts    outlays 
                                                     spending       spending                                    
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1962..................................        9.3          6.1           3.5          1.2        -1.2       18.8
1963..................................        9.0          6.0           3.6          1.3        -1.3       18.6
1964..................................        8.6          6.1           3.7          1.3        -1.2       18.5
1965..................................        7.4          5.8           3.9          1.3        -1.1       17.2
1966..................................        7.8          5.7           4.1          1.2        -1.1       17.8
                                                                                                                
1967..................................        8.9          6.3           4.3          1.3        -1.3       19.4
1968..................................        9.4          6.9           4.2          1.3        -1.2       20.5
1969..................................        8.7          6.8           3.6          1.3        -1.2       19.4
1970..................................        8.1          7.2           3.8          1.4        -1.1       19.4
1971..................................        7.3          8.1           4.0          1.4        -1.3       19.5
                                                                                                                
1972..................................        6.7          8.6           4.2          1.3        -1.2       19.6
1973..................................        5.9          8.9           4.1          1.3        -1.4       18.8
1974..................................        5.6          9.1           4.0          1.5        -1.5       18.7
1975..................................        5.6         10.9           4.5          1.5        -1.2       21.4
1976..................................        5.2         10.9           4.9          1.5        -1.1       21.5
                                                                                                                
1977..................................        4.9         10.3           5.0          1.5        -1.1       20.8
1978..................................        4.7         10.3           5.2          1.6        -1.0       20.7
1979..................................        4.7          9.9           5.0          1.7        -1.0       20.2
1980..................................        5.0         10.7           5.2          1.9        -1.1       21.7
1981..................................        5.2         11.1           4.9          2.3        -1.2       22.3
                                                                                                                
1982..................................        5.8         11.5           4.4          2.6        -1.1       23.2
1983..................................        6.1         12.0           4.2          2.6        -1.3       23.6
1984..................................        6.0         10.6           3.9          2.9        -1.2       22.3
1985..................................        6.2         10.9           3.9          3.2        -1.1       23.0
1986..................................        6.3         10.6           3.8          3.1        -1.1       22.7
                                                                                                                
1987..................................        6.1         10.3           3.5          3.0        -1.1       21.8
1988..................................        5.9         10.2           3.5          3.1        -1.1       21.5
1989..................................        5.7         10.3           3.4          3.2        -1.2       21.4
1990..................................        5.3         11.0           3.5          3.2        -1.0       22.1
1991..................................        5.5         12.0           3.6          3.3        -1.8       22.6
                                                                                                                
1992..................................        4.9         11.7           3.8          3.2        -1.1       22.5
1993..................................        4.5         11.4           3.8          3.1        -1.0       21.8
1994..................................        4.1         11.5           3.8          3.0        -1.0       21.4
1995..................................        3.8         11.4           3.8          3.2        -1.1       21.1
1996..................................        3.6         11.5           3.6          3.2        -1.0      20.8 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note.--GDP = gross domestic product.                                                                            
                                                                                                                
 Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                           


                           TABLE I-9.--REVENUES BY MAJOR SOURCE, FISCAL YEARS 1962-96                           
                                            [In billions of dollars]                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                        Estate                                  
                              Individual  Corporate    Social   Excise    and   Customs  Miscellaneous    Total 
         Fiscal year            income      income   insurance   taxes   gift    duties     receipts    revenues
                                 taxes      taxes      taxes             taxes                                  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1962........................     $45.6       $20.5      $17.0    $12.5    $2.0     $1.1        $0.8        $99.7
1963........................      47.6        21.6       19.8     13.2     2.2      1.2         1.0        106.6
1964........................      48.7        23.5       22.0     13.7     2.4      1.3         1.1        112.6
1965........................      48.8        25.5       22.2     14.6     2.7      1.4         1.6        116.8
1966........................      55.4        30.1       25.5     13.1     3.1      1.8         1.9        130.8
                                                                                                                
1967........................      61.5        34.0       32.6     13.7     3.0      1.9         2.1        148.8
1968........................      68.7        28.7       33.9     14.1     3.1      2.0         2.5        153.0
1969........................      87.2        36.7       39.0     15.2     3.5      2.3         2.9        186.9
1970........................      90.4        32.8       44.4     15.7     3.6      2.4         3.4        192.8
1971........................      86.2        26.8       47.3     16.6     3.7      2.6         3.9        187.1
                                                                                                                
1972........................      94.7        32.2       52.6     15.5     5.4      3.3         3.6        207.3
1973........................     103.2        36.2       63.1     16.3     4.9      3.2         3.9        230.8
1974........................     119.0        38.6       75.1     16.8     5.0      3.3         5.4        263.2
1975........................     122.4        40.6       84.5     16.6     4.6      3.7         6.7        279.1
1976........................     131.6        41.4       90.8     17.0     5.2      4.1         8.0        298.1
                                                                                                                
1977........................     157.6        54.9      106.5     17.5     7.3      5.2         6.5        355.6
1978........................     181.0        60.0      121.0     18.4     5.3      6.6         7.4        399.6
1979........................     217.8        65.7      138.9     18.7     5.4      7.4         9.3        463.3
1980........................     244.1        64.6      157.8     24.3     6.4      7.2        12.7        517.1
1981........................     285.9        61.1      182.7     40.8     6.8      8.1        13.8        599.3
                                                                                                                
1982........................     297.7        49.2      201.5     36.3     8.0      8.9        16.2        617.8
1983........................     288.9        37.0      209.0     35.3     6.1      8.7        15.6        600.6
1984........................     298.4        56.9      239.4     37.4     6.0     11.4        17.1        666.5
1985........................     334.5        61.3      265.2     36.0     6.4     12.1        18.6        734.2
1986........................     349.0        63.1      283.9     32.9     7.0     13.3        20.1        769.3
                                                                                                                
1987........................     392.6        83.9      303.3     32.5     7.5     15.1        19.6        854.4
1988........................     401.2        94.5      334.3     35.2     7.6     16.2        20.3        909.3
1989........................     445.7       103.3      359.4     34.4     8.7     16.3        23.3        991.2
1990........................     466.9        93.5      380.0     35.3    11.5     16.7        28.0      1,032.0
1991........................     467.8        98.1      396.0     42.4    11.1     15.9        23.6      1,055.0
                                                                                                                
1992........................     476.0       100.3      413.7     45.6    11.1     17.4        27.3      1,091.3
1993........................     509.7       117.5      428.3     48.1    12.6     18.8        19.5      1,154.4
1994........................     543.1       140.4      461.5     55.2    15.2     20.1        23.2      1,258.6
1995........................     590.2       157.0      484.5     57.5    14.8     19.3        28.6      1,351.8
1996........................     656.4       171.8      509.4     54.0    17.2     18.7        25.5     1,453.1 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                            


               TABLE I-10.--REVENUES BY MAJOR SOURCE AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP, FISCAL YEARS 1962-96               
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                        Estate                                  
                              Individual  Corporate    Social   Excise    and   Customs  Miscellaneous    Total 
         Fiscal year            income      income   insurance   taxes   gift    duties     receipts    revenues
                                 taxes      taxes      taxes             taxes                                  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1962........................       8.0         3.6        3.0      2.2     0.4      0.2         0.1         17.6
1963........................       7.9         3.6        3.3      2.2     0.4      0.2         0.2         17.8
1964........................       7.6         3.7        3.4      2.1     0.4      0.2         0.2         17.6
1965........................       7.1         3.7        3.2      2.1     0.4      0.2         0.2         17.0
1966........................       7.3         4.0        3.4      1.7     0.4      0.2         0.2         17.3
                                                                                                                
1967........................       7.6         4.2        4.0      1.7     0.4      0.2         0.3         18.4
1968........................       7.9         3.3        3.9      1.6     0.4      0.2         0.3         17.6
1969........................       9.2         3.9        4.1      1.6     0.4      0.2         0.3         19.7
1970........................       9.0         3.3        4.4      1.6     0.4      0.2         0.3         19.1
1971........................       8.0         2.5        4.4      1.5     0.3      0.2         0.4         17.4
                                                                                                                
1972........................       8.1         2.7        4.5      1.3     0.5      0.3         0.3         17.6
1973........................       7.9         2.8        4.8      1.2     0.4      0.2         0.3         17.6
1974........................       8.3         2.7        5.2      1.2     0.4      0.2         0.4         18.3
1975........................       7.9         2.6        5.4      1.1     0.3      0.2         0.4         18.0
1976........................       7.6         2.4        5.2      1.0     0.3      0.2         0.5         17.2
                                                                                                                
1977........................       8.0         2.8        5.4      0.9     0.4      0.3         0.3         18.0
1978........................       8.2         2.7        5.5      0.8     0.2      0.3         0.3         18.0
1979........................       8.7         2.6        5.6      0.8     0.2      0.3         0.4         18.5
1980........................       9.0         2.4        5.8      0.9     0.2      0.3         0.5         19.0
1981........................       9.4         2.0        6.0      1.3     0.2      0.3         0.5         19.7
                                                                                                                
1982........................       9.3         1.5        6.3      1.1     0.2      0.3         0.5         19.2
1983........................       8.4         1.1        6.1      1.0     0.2      0.3         0.5         17.5
1984........................       7.8         1.5        6.3      1.0     0.2      0.3         0.4         17.4
1985........................       8.1         1.5        6.5      0.9     0.2      0.3         0.5         17.9
1986........................       8.0         1.4        6.5      0.8     0.2      0.3         0.5         17.6
                                                                                                                
1987........................       8.5         1.8        6.6      0.7     0.2      0.3         0.4         18.5
1988........................       8.1         1.9        6.7      0.7     0.2      0.3         0.4         18.3
1989........................       8.3         1.9        6.7      0.6     0.2      0.3         0.4         18.5
1990........................       8.2         1.6        6.7      0.6     0.2      0.3         0.5         18.2
1991........................       8.0         1.7        6.8      0.7     0.2      0.3         0.4         18.0
                                                                                                                
1992........................       7.7         1.6        6.7      0.7     0.2      0.3         0.4         17.7
1993........................       7.9         1.8        6.6      0.7     0.2      0.3         0.3         17.8
1994........................       7.9         2.1        6.7      0.8     0.2      0.3         0.3         18.4
1995........................       8.2         2.2        6.7      0.8     0.2      0.3         0.4         18.8
1996........................       8.8         2.3        6.8      0.7     0.2      0.2         0.3        19.4 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note.--GDP = gross domestic product.                                                                            
                                                                                                                
 Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                           


 TABLE I-11.--FEDERAL REVENUES BY SOURCE FOR SELECTED YEARS IN NOMINAL DOLLARS AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP AND TOTAL 
                                     REVENUES, SELECTED FISCAL YEARS 1965-96                                    
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             Revenue source               1965    1970     1975     1980     1985     1990      1995      1996  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              In nominal dollars (billions)                     
                                                                                                                
                                        ------------------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income......................   $48.8   $90.4   $122.4   $244.1   $334.5    $466.9    $590.2    $656.4
Corporate income.......................    25.5    32.8     40.6     64.6     61.3      93.5     157.0     171.8
Social insurance.......................    22.2    44.4     84.5    157.8    265.2     380.0     484.5     509.4
Excise.................................    14.6    15.7     16.6     24.3     36.0      35.3      57.5      54.0
Estate and gift........................     2.7     3.6      4.6      6.4      6.4      11.5      14.8      17.2
Other..................................     3.0     5.9     10.4     19.9     30.7      44.7      47.9      44.2
                                        ------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total............................   116.8   192.8    279.1    517.1    734.2    1032.0    1351.8    1453.0
                                        ========================================================================
                                                                  As a percentage of GDP                        
                                                                                                                
                                        ------------------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income......................     7.1     9.0      7.9      9.0      8.1       8.2       8.2       8.8
Corporate income.......................     3.7     3.3      2.6      2.4      1.5       1.6       2.2       2.3
Social insurance.......................     3.2     4.4      5.4      5.8      6.5       6.7       6.7       6.8
Excise.................................     2.1     1.6      1.1      0.9      0.9       0.6       0.8       0.7
Estate and gift........................     0.4     0.4      0.3      0.2      0.2       0.2       0.2       0.2
Other..................................     0.4     0.6      0.7      0.7      0.7       0.8       0.7       0.6
                                        ------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total............................    17.0    19.1     18.0     19.0     17.9      18.2      18.8      19.4
                                        ========================================================================
                                                               As a percentage of revenues                      
                                                                                                                
                                        ------------------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income......................    41.8    46.9     43.9     47.2     45.6      45.2      43.7      45.2
Corporate income.......................    21.8    17.0     14.6     12.5      8.4       9.1      11.6      11.8
Social insurance.......................    19.0    23.0     30.3     30.5     36.1      36.8      35.8      35.1
Excise.................................    12.5     8.1      5.9      4.7      4.9       3.4       4.3       3.7
Estate and gift........................     2.3     1.9      1.7      1.2      0.9       1.1       1.1       1.2
Other..................................     2.6     3.0      3.7      3.9      4.2       4.3       3.5       3.0
                                        ------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total............................   100.0   100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0     100.0     100.0    100.0 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note.--GDP = gross domestic product.                                                                            
                                                                                                                
 Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                           


           TABLE I-12.--CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE BASELINE REVENUE PROJECTIONS BY SOURCE AND AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP, FISCAL YEARS 1997-2007           
                                                                [In billions of dollars]                                                                
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      Revenue source                          1997     1998     1999     2000     2001     2002     2004     2005      2006       2007  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                     Projections                                        
                                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income.........................................   $676.4   $707.7   $740.5   $777.3   $816.9   $857.4   $947.2   $993.9   $1,042.1   $1,095.7
Corporate income..........................................    179.1    183.7    187.1    188.9    192.7    197.9    213.3    222.9      233.7      244.5
Social insurance..........................................    533.9    553.4    577.6    604.4    630.0    658.7    716.5    749.2      784.3      820.5
Excise....................................................     53.7     52.2     52.7     53.2     53.8     54.5     55.6     56.2       56.9       57.6
Estate and gift...........................................     19.2     20.6     21.9     23.3     24.7     26.2     29.5     31.4       33.3       35.3
Customs duties............................................     17.4     18.6     18.7     19.5     20.6     21.9     24.9     26.2       27.5       28.9
Other.....................................................     27.2     30.2     34.6     38.4     42.0     43.6     46.2     47.6       49.1       50.4
                                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total...............................................   1506.9   1566.5   1633.2   1704.9   1780.6   1860.2   2033.1   2127.4     2226.8     2332.9
                                                           =============================================================================================
                                                                                               As a percentage of GDP                                   
                                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income.........................................      8.6      8.6      8.6      8.6      8.7      8.7      8.8      8.8        8.8        8.9
Corporate income..........................................      2.3      2.2      2.2      2.1      2.0      2.0      2.0      2.0        2.0        2.0
Social insurance..........................................      6.8      6.8      6.7      6.7      6.7      6.7      6.6      6.6        6.6        6.6
Excise....................................................      0.7      0.6      0.6      0.6      0.6      0.6      0.5      0.5        0.5        0.5
Estate and gift...........................................      0.2      0.3      0.3      0.3      0.3      0.3      0.3      0.3        0.3        0.3
Customs duties............................................      0.2      0.2      0.2      0.2      0.2      0.2      0.2      0.2        0.2        0.2
Other.....................................................      0.4      0.4      0.4      0.4      0.5      0.5      0.5      0.5        0.5        0.4
                                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total...............................................     19.2     19.1     19.0     19.0     18.9     18.8     18.8     18.8       18.8      18.8 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note.--GDP = gross domestic product.                                                                                                                    
                                                                                                                                                        
 Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                                                                   


                       TABLE I-13.--REVENUES, OUTLAYS, AND DEFICITS, FISCAL YEARS 1962-96                       
                                            [In billions of dollars]                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                       Deficit (-) or surplus   
                                                                                  ------------------------------
                         Fiscal year                           Revenues   Outlays              Social    Postal 
                                                                                    Onbudget  Security   Service
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1962.........................................................     $99.7    $106.8      -$5.9     -$1.3       0  
1963.........................................................     106.6     111.3       -4.0      -0.8       0  
1964.........................................................     112.6     118.5       -6.5       0.6       0  
1965.........................................................     116.8     118.2       -1.6       0.2       0  
1966.........................................................     130.8     134.5       -3.1      -0.6       0  
                                                                                                                
1967.........................................................     148.8     157.5      -12.6       4.0       0  
1968.........................................................     153.0     178.1      -27.7       2.6       0  
1969.........................................................     186.9     183.6       -0.5       3.7       0  
1970.........................................................     192.8     195.6       -8.7       5.9       0  
1971.........................................................     187.1     210.2      -26.1       3.0       0  
                                                                                                                
1972.........................................................     207.3     230.7      -26.4       3.0       0  
1973.........................................................     230.8     245.7      -15.4       0.5       0  
1974.........................................................     263.2     269.4       -8.0       1.8       0  
1975.........................................................     279.1     332.3      -55.3       2.0       0  
1976.........................................................     298.1     371.8      -70.5      -3.2       0  
                                                                                                                
1977.........................................................     355.6     409.2      -49.8      -3.9       0  
1978.........................................................     399.6     458.7      -54.9      -4.3       0  
1979.........................................................     463.3     504.0      -38.7      -2.0       0  
1980.........................................................     517.1     590.9      -72.7      -1.1       0  
1981.........................................................     599.3     678.2      -74.0      -5.0       0  
                                                                                                                
1982.........................................................     617.8     745.8     -120.1      -7.9       0  
1983.........................................................     600.6     808.4     -208.0       0.2       0  
1984.........................................................     666.5     851.8     -185.7       0.3       0  
1985.........................................................     734.2     946.4     -221.7       9.4       0  
1986.........................................................     769.3     990.5     -238.0      16.7       0  
                                                                                                                
1987.........................................................     854.4   1,004.2     -169.3      19.6       0  
1988.........................................................     909.3   1,064.5     -194.0      38.8       0  
1989.........................................................     991.2   1,143.7     -205.2      52.4      $0.3
1990.........................................................   1,032.0   1,253.2     -277.8      58.2      -1.6
1991.........................................................   1,055.0   1,324.4     -321.6      53.5      -1.3
                                                                                                                
1992.........................................................   1,091.3   1,381.7     -340.5      50.7      -0.7
1993.........................................................   1,154.4    1409.4     -300.4      46.8      -1.4
1994.........................................................   1,258.6   1,461.7     -258.8      56.8      -1.1
1995.........................................................   1,351.8   1,515.7     -226.3      60.4       2.0
1996.........................................................     1,453   1,560.3     -174.3      66.4       0.6 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                            


            TABLE I-14.--REVENUES, OUTLAYS, AND DEFICITS AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP, FISCAL YEARS 1962-96           
                                            [As a percentage of GDP]                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                       Deficit (-) or surplus   
                                                                                   -----------------------------
                                                                Revenues   Outlays             Social    Postal 
                                                                                    Onbudget  Security   Service
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1962..........................................................      17.6      18.8      -1.0      -0.2       0  
1963..........................................................      17.8      18.6      -0.7      -0.1       0  
1964..........................................................      17.6      18.5      -1.0       0.1       0  
1965..........................................................      17.0      17.2      -0.2     (\1\)       0  
1966..........................................................      17.3      17.8      -0.4      -0.1       0  
                                                                                                                
1967..........................................................      18.4      19.4      -1.6       0.5       0  
1968..........................................................      17.6      20.5      -3.2       0.3       0  
1969..........................................................      19.7      19.4      -0.1       0.4       0  
1970..........................................................      19.1      19.4      -0.9       0.6       0  
1971..........................................................      17.4      19.5      -2.4       0.3       0  
                                                                                                                
1972..........................................................      17.6      19.6      -2.2       0.3       0  
1973..........................................................      17.6      18.8      -1.2     (\1\)       0  
1974..........................................................      18.3      18.7      -0.6       0.1       0  
1975..........................................................      18.0      21.4      -3.6       0.1       0  
1976..........................................................      17.2      21.5      -4.1      -0.2       0  
                                                                                                                
1977..........................................................      18.0      20.8      -2.5      -0.2       0  
1978..........................................................      18.0      20.7      -2.5      -0.2       0  
1979..........................................................      18.5      20.2      -1.6      -0.1       0  
1980..........................................................      19.0      21.7      -2.7     (\1\)       0  
1981..........................................................      19.7      22.3      -2.4      -0.2       0  
                                                                                                                
1982..........................................................      19.2      23.2      -3.7      -0.2       0  
1983..........................................................      17.5      23.6      -6.1     (\1\)       0  
1984..........................................................      17.4      22.3      -4.9     (\1\)       0  
1985..........................................................      17.9      23.0      -5.4       0.2       0  
1986..........................................................      17.6      22.7      -5.4       0.4       0  
                                                                                                                
1987..........................................................      18.5      21.8      -3.7       0.4       0  
1988..........................................................      18.3      21.5      -3.9       0.8       0  
1989..........................................................      18.5      21.4      -3.8       1.0   (\1\)  
1990..........................................................      18.2      22.1      -4.9       1.0   (\1\)  
1991..........................................................      18.0      22.6      -5.5       0.9   (\1\)  
                                                                                                                
1992..........................................................      17.7      22.5      -5.5       0.8   (\1\)  
1993..........................................................      17.8      21.8      -4.6       0.7   (\1\)  
1994..........................................................      18.4      21.4      -3.8       0.8   (\1\)  
1995..........................................................      18.8      21.1      -3.1       0.9   (\1\)  
1996..........................................................      19.4      20.8      -2.3       0.9  (\1\)   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Less than 0.05 percent.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                
 Note.--GDP = gross domestic product.                                                                           
                                                                                                                
 Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                           


                                               TABLE I-15.--FEDERAL FINANCES AND THE FEDERAL DEBT, 1955-97                                              
                                                                  [Dollars in billions]                                                                 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                  Total deficit                           Federal debt, end of year                     
                                                             -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                             Gross            Held by government     Held by the public 
                         Fiscal year                                                -----------------------        accounts       ----------------------
                                                                Amount   Percentage                        -----------------------                      
                                                                           of GDP      Anount   Percentage             Percentage    Anount   Percentage
                                                                                                  of GDP      Anount     of GDP                 of GDP  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1955........................................................      -$3.0        -0.8     $274.4        69.4      $47.8        12.1     $226.6        57.3
1956........................................................        3.9         0.9      272.7        63.9       50.5        11.8      222.2        52.1
1957........................................................        3.4         0.8      272.3        60.5       52.9        11.8      219.3        48.7
1958........................................................       -2.8        -0.6      279.7        61.0       53.3        11.6      226.3        49.3
1959........................................................      -12.8        -2.6      287.5        58.7       52.8        10.8      234.7        47.9
                                                                                                                                                        
1960........................................................        0.3         0.1      290.5        56.1       53.7        10.4      236.8        45.7
1961........................................................       -3.3        -0.6      292.6        55.2       54.3        10.2      238.4        44.9
1962........................................................       -7.1        -1.3      302.9        53.4       54.9         9.7      248.0        43.7
1963........................................................       -4.8        -0.8      310.3        51.8       56.3         9.4      254.0        42.4
1964........................................................       -5.9        -0.9      316.1        49.4       59.2         9.3      256.8        40.1
                                                                                                                                                        
1965........................................................       -1.4        -0.2      322.2        46.9       61.5         9.0      260.8        38.0
1966........................................................       -3.7        -0.5      328.5        43.6       64.8         8.6      263.7        35.0
1967........................................................       -8.6        -1.1      340.4        41.9       73.8         9.1      266.6        32.8
1968........................................................      -25.2        -2.9      368.7        42.5       79.1         9.1      289.5        33.4
1969........................................................        3.2         0.3      365.8        38.6       87.7         9.2      278.1        29.3
                                                                                                                                                        
1970........................................................       -2.8        -0.3      380.9        37.7       97.7         9.7      283.2        28.1
1971........................................................      -23.0        -2.1      408.2        37.9      105.1         9.8      303.0        28.1
1972........................................................      -23.4        -2.0      435.9        37.0      113.6         9.6      322.4        27.4
1973........................................................      -14.9        -1.1      466.3        35.7      125.4         9.6      340.9        26.1
1974........................................................       -6.1        -0.4      483.9        33.6      140.2         9.7      343.7        23.9
                                                                                                                                                        
1975........................................................      -53.2        -3.4      541.9        34.9      147.2         9.5      394.7        25.4
1976........................................................      -73.7        -4.3      629.0        36.3      151.6         8.8      477.4        27.6
TQ..........................................................         NA          NA      643.6        35.4      148.1         8.1      495.5        27.2
1977........................................................      -53.7        -2.7      706.4        35.8      157.3         8.0      549.1        27.9
1978........................................................      -59.2        -2.7      776.6        35.1      169.5         7.7      607.1        27.4
                                                                                                                                                        
1979........................................................      -40.7        -1.6      829.4        33.2      189.2         7.6      640.3        25.7
1980........................................................      -73.8        -2.7      909.1        33.4      199.2         7.3      709.8        26.1
1981........................................................      -79.0        -2.6      994.8        32.6      209.5         6.9      785.3        25.8
1982........................................................     -128.0        -4.0    1,137.3        35.4      217.6         6.8      919.8        28.6
1983........................................................     -207.8        -6.1    1,371.7        40.1      240.1         7.0    1,131.6        33.1
                                                                                                                                                        
1984........................................................     -185.4        -4.9    1,564.7        41.0      264.2         6.9    1,300.5        34.1
1985........................................................     -212.3        -5.2    1,817.5        44.3      317.6         7.7    1,499.9        36.6
1986........................................................     -221.2        -5.1    2,120.6        48.5      383.9         8.6    1,736.7        39.7
1987........................................................     -149.8        -3.3    2,346.1        50.9      457.4         9.9    1,888.7        41.0
1988........................................................     -155.2        -3.1    2,601.3        52.5      550.5        11.1    2,050.8        41.4
                                                                                                                                                        
1989........................................................     -152.5        -2.8    2,868.0        53.6      678.2        12.7    2,189.9        40.9
1990........................................................     -221.2        -3.9    3,206.6        56.4      795.8        14.0    2,410.7        42.4
1991........................................................     -269.4        -4.6    3,598.5        61.4      910.4        15.5    2,688.1        45.9
1992........................................................     -290.4        -4.7    4,002.1        65.1    1,003.3        16.3    2,998.8        48.8
1993........................................................     -255.0        -3.9    4,351.4        67.3    1,103.9        17.1    3,247.5        50.2
                                                                                                                                                        
1994........................................................     -203.1        -3.0    4,643.7        68.0    1,211.6        17.7    3,432.1        50.2
1995........................................................     -163.9        -2.3    4,921.0        68.5    1,317.6        18.3    3,603.4        50.1
1996........................................................     -107.3        -1.4    5,181.9        69.2    1,449.0        19.4    3,733.0        49.9
1997 \1\....................................................     -125.6        -1.6    5,453.7        69.4    1,577.9        20.1    3,875.8       49.3 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ 1997 figures are estimates.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                        
NA--Not available.                                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                        
 Source: Executive Office of the President (1997, tables 1.1, 1.2, 7.1).                                                                                


       TABLE I-16.--CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE PROJECTIONS OF INTEREST COSTS AND FEDERAL DEBT, 1996-2002       
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                 Fiscal year                    
                      Source                        Actual -----------------------------------------------------
                                                     1996     1997     1998     1999     2000     2001     2002 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                             Net interest outlays (billions of dollars)         
                                                                                                                
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
Interest on public debt (gross interest) \1\.....     $344     $359     $368     $380     $390     $400     $412
Interest received by trust funds:                                                                               
    Social Security..............................      -37      -43      -48      -53      -58      -64      -69
    Other trust funds \2\........................      -61      -63      -61      -60      -59      -58      -56
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal...................................      -97     -106     -109     -113     -117     -121     -125
                                                  ==============================================================
Other interest \3\...............................       -5       -5       -7       -7       -7       -8       -8
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
      Total, net interest, outlays...............      241      248      252      260      266      271      278
                                                  ==============================================================
                                                                                                                
                                                          Federal debt, end of year (billions of dollars)       
                                                                                                                
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                
Gross Federal debt...............................    5,182    5,433    5,683    5,954    6,243    6,522    6,818
Debt held by government accounts:                                                                               
    Social Security..............................      550      629      710      798      892      990    1,094
    Other government accounts \2\................      899      940      969      989      997      998      989
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal...................................    1,449    1,569    1,679    1,787    1,889    1,989    2,053
                                                  ==============================================================
Debt held by the public..........................    3,733    3,864    4,004    4,167    4,353    4,534    4,735
Debt subject to limit \4\........................    5,137    5,390    5,643    5,914    6,203    6,482    6,778
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                
                                                                Federal debt as a percentage of GDP             
                                                                                                                
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
Debt held by the public..........................     49.9     49.4     48.9     48.6     48.4     48.1    48.0 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Excludes interest costs of debt issued by agencies other than the Treasury (primarily deposit insurance     
  agencies).                                                                                                    
\2\ Principally Civil Service retirement, military retirement, Medicare, unemployment insurance, and the highway
  and the airport and airway trust funds.                                                                       
\3\ Primarily interest on loans to the public and to the Resolution Trust Corporation and the Bank Insurance    
  Fund.                                                                                                         
\4\ Differs from the gross Federal debt primarily because most debt issued by agencies other than the Treasury  
  is excluded from the debt limit.                                                                              
                                                                                                                
 Note.--Projections of interest and debt assume compliance with the discretionary spending caps in the Budget   
  Enforcement Act.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                
 Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                           


                                                                TABLE I-17.--TRUST FUND SURPLUSES, SELECTED FISCAL YEARS 1981-96                                                                
                                                                                    [In billions of dollars]                                                                                    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                         Fiscal year                                                            
                          Account                          -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                             1981     1983     1984     1985     1986     1987     1988     1989     1990     1991     1992     1993     1994     1995     1996 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Social Security...........................................     -$5    (\1\)    (\1\)       $9      $17      $20      $39      $52      $58      $54      $51      $47      $57      $60      $66
Medicare..................................................       3       $6       $6        4        6        9       15       22       15       15       14       10        1       -7        9
Military retirement.......................................  ......  .......  .......       12       12       14       14       14       12       13       12       10        8        7        5
Civilian retirement \2\...................................      11       14       15       18       19       18       19       20       22       24       26       28       28       28       28
Unemployment..............................................      -1       -1        4        5        4        7        8        7        6       -3      -12        1        3        8        6
Highway and airport.......................................      -2        1        4        2        1        2        2        4        2        4        2       -1       -5       -1    (\1\)
Other \3\.................................................       1        2        5        5        3        3        1        4        5        6        4        6        4        4        1
                                                           -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total trust fund surplus..............................       7       23       33       54       62       73       98      124      120      112       96      100       95       99      115
                                                           =====================================================================================================================================
    Federal funds deficit.................................     -86     -231     -218     -267     -283     -222     -253     -276     -342     -381     -386     -355     -299     -263     -222
    Overall deficit.......................................     -79     -208     -185     -212     -221     -150     -155     -153     -221     -270     -290     -255     -203     -164    -107 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Less than $500 million.                                                                                                                                                                     
\2\ Includes Civil Service retirement, Foreign Service retirement, and several smaller funds.                                                                                                   
\3\ Includes primarily railroad retirement, employees' health insurance and life insurance, hazardous substance superfund, foreign military states, veterans life insurance trust fund, other   
  trust funds, overseas private investment corporations, abandoned mine redemption fund, nuclear disposal fund, and uranium enrichment decontamination and decommissioning fund.                
                                                                                                                                                                                                
 Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                                                                                                           


      TABLE I-18.--CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE PROJECTIONS OF TRUST FUND SURPLUSES, FISCAL YEARS 1997-2002      
                                            [In billions of dollars]                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     Trust fund                         1997      1998      1999      2000      2001      2002  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Social Security \1\.................................       $79       $81       $88       $94       $98      $104
Medicare \2\........................................       -15       -16       -23       -33       -39       -51
Military retirement.................................         9         9         9         9        10        10
Civilian retirement \3\.............................        28        28        27        28        28        28
Unemployment........................................         7         6         3         2         2         3
Highway and airport.................................        -1        -3        -3        -3        -3        -4
Other \4\...........................................         3         3         3         3         3         4
                                                     -----------------------------------------------------------
    Total trust fund surplus \5\....................       110       109       106       101        99        94
                                                     ===========================================================
    Federal funds deficit \5\.......................      -225      -231      -255      -273      -265      -281
                                                     -----------------------------------------------------------
    Total deficit...................................      -115      -122      -149      -172      -167      -188
                                                     ===========================================================
Memorandum: Net transfers from Federal funds to                                                                 
 trust funds........................................       240       257       273       290       301      322 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Old-age and survivors insurance and disability insurance.                                                   
\2\ Hospital insurance and supplementary medical insurance.                                                     
\3\ Civil Service retirement, Foreign Service retirement, and several smaller funds.                            
\4\ Primarily railroad retirement, employees' health insurance and life insurance, Superfund, and various       
  veterans' insurance trust funds.                                                                              
\5\ Assumes that discretionary spending reductions are made in nonfund programs.                                
                                                                                                                
 Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                           


 TABLE I-19.--CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE BASELINE, ADMINISTRATION, AND BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS, CALENDAR
                                                 YEARS 1996-2002                                                
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                          Forecast             Projected        
                  Projection category                    Estimated \1\ -----------------------------------------
                                                              1996       1997   1998   1999   2000   2001   2002
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real GDP \2\ (percentage change, year over year):                                                               
    Congressional Budget Office........................          2.3      2.3    2.0    2.2    2.1    2.1    2.1
    Administration.....................................          2.3      2.2    2.0    2.2    2.3    2.3    2.3
    Blue chip..........................................          2.4      2.6    2.1    2.1    2.5    2.4    2.3
                                                                                                                
GDP deflator (percentage change, year over year):                                                               
    Congressional Budget Office........................          2.1      2.3    2.5    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6
    Administration.....................................          2.2      2.5    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6    2.6
    Blue chip..........................................          2.1      2.2    2.5    2.6    2.6    2.7    2.7
                                                                                                                
Consumer Price Index \3\ (percentage change, year over                                                          
 year):                                                                                                         
    Congressional Budget Office........................          2.9      2.9    2.9    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.0
    Administration.....................................          2.7      2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7
    Blue chip..........................................          3.0      2.9    3.0    3.0    3.0    3.2    3.1
                                                                                                                
Civilian unemployment rate (percent): \4\                                                                       
    Congressional Budget Office........................          5.4      5.3    5.6    5.8    5.9    6.0    6.0
    Administration.....................................          5.4      5.3    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5    5.5
    Blue chip..........................................          5.4      5.4    5.5    5.9    5.9    5.7    5.5
                                                                                                                
Three-month Treasury bill rate (percent): \5\                                                                   
    Congressional Budget Office........................          5.0      5.0    5.0    4.9    4.7    4.6    4.6
    Administration.....................................          5.0      5.0    4.7    4.4    4.2    4.0    4.0
    Blue chip..........................................          5.1      5.2    5.2    5.0    5.0    5.2    5.2
                                                                                                                
Ten-year Treasury note rate (percent):                                                                          
    Congressional Budget Office........................          6.4      6.2    6.2    6.2    6.2    6.2    6.2
    Administration.....................................          6.4      6.1    5.9    5.5    5.3    5.1    5.1
    Blue chip \6\......................................          6.4      6.5    6.5    6.4    6.4    6.5   6.5 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ The blue chip forecast was prepared 3 months later than the other forecasts, so the blue chip data for 1996 
  are actual.                                                                                                   
\2\ Consumer Price Index for all Urban Consumers (CPI-U).                                                       
                                                                                                                
 Note.--The forecast labeled ``administration'' in this table reflects the administration's estimate of its own 
  programs' effects on the economy. The Congressional Budget Office forecast is based on data available through 
  November 1996 and does not reflect fourth-quarter data for gross domestic product or the Consumer Price Index 
  published in January 1997. The blue chip forecasts are based on a survey of private forecasters published on  
  March 10, 1997. Congressional Budget Office's forecasts projections are based on current policy assumptions,  
  whereas the administration's forecasts and projections are based on balanced budget economic assumptions.     
                                                                                                                
 Source: Congressional Budget Office; Office of Management and Budget; Eggert Economic Enterprises, Inc., Blue  
  Chip Economic Indicators.                                                                                     


     TABLE I-20.--EFFECTS ON CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE BUDGET PROJECTIONS OF SELECTED CHANGES IN ECONOMIC     
                                       ASSUMPTIONS, FISCAL YEARS 1997-2002                                      
                                            [In billions of dollars]                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            Category                              1997    1998    1999    2000    2001     2002 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Real growth: Effect of 0.1 percentage point lower annual rate beginning January 1997              
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Change in revenues.............................................     -$1     -$2     -$4     -$6     -$8     -$10
Change in outlays..............................................   (\1\)   (\1\)   (\1\)       1       1        2
Change in deficit..............................................       1       2       4       6       9       12
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Inflation: Effect of 1 percentage point higher annual rate beginning January 1996               
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Change in revenues.............................................       8      24      41      58      78       99
Change in outlays..............................................       7      30      52      75      99      124
Change in deficit..............................................      -2       6      12      17      21       25
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             Interest rates: Effect of 1 percentage point higher annual rate beginning January 1996             
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Change in revenues.............................................       0       0       0       0       0        0
Change in outlays..............................................       6      18      27      34      41       48
Change in deficit..............................................       6      18      27      34      41      48 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Less than $500 million.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                
 Note.--See appendix D in Congressional Budget Office (January 1997) for an explanation of our revised rules of 
  thumb annual report.                                                                                          
                                                                                                                
 Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                           


                                      TABLE I-21.--PRICE LEVELS, 1970-2002                                      
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      Chain-                                                                    
                                       type     All     CPI-U                                             CPI-X1
                Year                   GDP     items    fiscal    Food and    Housing  Medical   CPI-X1   fiscal
                                      price   (CPI-U)    year   beverage \1\             care              year 
                                      index                                                                     
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1970...............................     30.6     38.8     37.8        40.1       36.4     34.0     41.3     40.4
1971...............................     32.1     40.5     39.7        41.4       38.0     36.1     43.1     42.3
1972...............................     33.5      1.8     41.2        43.1       39.5     37.3     44.5     43.8
1973...............................     35.4     44.4     42.8        48.8       41.2     38.8     47.2     45.5
1974...............................     38.5     49.3     46.7        55.5       45.8     42.4     52.0     49.4
                                                                                                                
1975...............................     42.2     53.8     51.8        60.2       50.6     47.5     56.3     54.3
1976 \2\...........................     44.6     56.9     55.5        62.1       53.7     52.0     59.5     58.0
1977...............................     47.5     60.6     59.7        65.8       57.4     57.0     63.2     62.3
1978...............................     50.9     65.2     63.9        72.2       62.4     61.8     67.6     66.3
1979...............................     55.3     72.6     70.5        79.9       70.1     67.5     74.1     72.2
                                                                                                                
1980...............................     60.4     82.4     80.0        86.8       81.0     74.9     82.3     80.3
1981...............................     66.1     90.9     88.9        93.5       90.4     82.9     90.2     88.3
1982...............................     70.2     96.5     95.5        97.3       96.9     92.6     95.7     94.5
1983...............................     73.2     99.6     98.8        99.5       99.5    100.7     99.6     98.7
1984...............................     75.9    103.9    102.9       103.2      103.6    107.0    103.9    102.9
                                                                                                                
1985...............................     78.6    107.6    106.7       105.6      107.7    113.6    107.6    106.7
1986...............................     80.6    109.7    109.3       109.1      110.9    122.2    109.7    109.3
1987...............................     83.1    113.7    112.5       113.6      114.2    130.3    113.7    112.5
1988...............................     86.1    118.4    117.1       118.2      118.4    138.8    118.4    117.1
1989...............................     89.7    124.0    122.6       125.0      122.9    149.4    124.0    122.6
                                                                                                                
1990...............................     93.6    130.8    128.8       132.1      128.5    163.0    130.8    128.8
1991...............................     97.3    136.3    135.3       136.8      133.5    177.2    136.3    135.3
1992...............................    100.0    140.4    139.3       138.7      137.4    190.3    140.4    139.3
1993...............................    102.6    144.6    143.6       141.6      141.1    201.6    144.6    143.6
1994...............................    104.9    148.3    147.4       144.9      144.7    211.2    148.3    147.4
                                                                                                                
1995...............................    107.6    152.5    151.5       148.9      148.3    220.7    152.5    151.5
1996...............................    109.7    157.0    155.7       153.7      152.7    228.5    157.0    155.7
1997 \3\...........................    112.4    161.4    160.3          NA         NA       NA    161.4    160.3
1998 \3\...........................    115.2    166.2    164.9          NA         NA       NA    166.2    164.9
1999 \3\...........................    118.2    171.1    169.8          NA         NA       NA    171.1    169.8
                                                                                                                
2000 \3\...........................    121.3    176.1    174.8          NA         NA       NA    176.1    174.8
2001 \3\...........................    124.5    181.4    180.1          NA         NA       NA    181.4    180.1
2002 \3\...........................    127.7    186.8    185.5          NA         NA       NA    186.8   185.5 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Includes alcoholic beverages, not shown separately.                                                         
\2\ In 1976, the fiscal year was moved from July-June to October-September. The 3-month period from July through
  September 1976 is not represented in this table. The value for CPI-U during this period is 57.3; the value of 
  CPI-X1 during this period is 59.9.                                                                            
\3\ Congressional Budget Office forecast from The Economic and Budget Outlook: fiscal years 1997-2006, May 1996.
                                                                                                                
 NA--Not available.                                                                                             
                                                                                                                
Note.--Data beginning in 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical 
  workers. Data for CPI-U beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeowners' costs (the    
  measure used in determining CPI-X1) and therefore are not strictly comparable with earlier figures.           
                                                                                                                
 Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;  
  and Congressional Budget Office.                                                                              

                               REFERENCES

Congressional Budget Office. (1997, January). The economic and 
        budget outlook: Fiscal years 1998-2007. Washington, DC: 
        U.S. Government Printing Office.
Eggert Economic Enterprises, Inc. (1997, January 10). Blue Chip 
        Economic Indicators. Alexandria, Virginia: Capitol 
        Publications.
Executive Office of the President. (1997). Budget of the U.S. 
        Government, fiscal year 1998 (Historical Tables). 
        Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.
Office of Management and Budget. (1996, July). Midsession 
        review of the 1997 budget. Washington, DC: Author.