[Background Material and Data on Programs within the Jurisdiction of the Committee on Ways and Means (Green Book)]
[Appendices]
[Appendix I. Budget Tables]
[From the U.S. Government Printing Office, www.gpo.gov]






 
[1996 Green Book] APPENDIX I. BUDGET TABLES

                                           TABLE I-1.--THE TEN-YEAR BUDGET OUTLOOK, BY FISCAL YEAR, 1996-2006                                           
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                      Year                                              
                   Budget category                    --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                         1996     1997     1998     1999     2000     2001     2002     2003     2004     2005     2006 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                             In billions of dollars                                     
                                                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Revenues.............................................   $1,428   $1,483   $1,544   $1,609   $1,681   $1,758   $1,840   $1,931   $2,023   $2,124   $2,232
Outlays:                                                                                                                                                
    Discretionary....................................      533      546      546      563      579      596      614      632      651      671      691
    Mandatory:                                                                                                                                          
        Social Security..............................      348      365      383      402      422      444      467      490      515      540      567
        Medicare.....................................      196      216      236      257      279      308      329      357      389      424      463
        Medicaid.....................................       96      105      115      126      138      152      166      183      201      221      243
        Federal civilian and military retirement.....       73       76       80       83       87       91       95       99      105      110      115
        Other........................................      172      188      199      204      217      217      229      241      248      263      268
                                                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Subtotal...................................      885      950    1,013    1,072    1,143    1,207    1,286    1,370    1,458    1,558    1,656
                                                      ==================================================================================================
    Deposit insurance................................      -10       -5       -2       -2       -2       -2       -1       -1       -1       -1       -1
    Net interest.....................................      240      246      257      271      283      296      311      328      346      365      385
    Offsetting receipts..............................      -75      -84      -77      -76      -79      -81      -85      -88      -90      -93      -96
                                                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Total......................................    1,572    1,654    1,737    1,828    1,925    2,016    2,125    2,242    2,365    2,500    2,636
                                                      ==================================================================================================
Deficit..............................................      144      171      194      219      244      259      285      311      342      376      403
Debt held by the public..............................    3,770    3,967    4,181    4,422    4,687    4,966    5,266    5,593    5,947    6,333    6,746
                                                      ==================================================================================================
                                                                                             As a percentage of GDP                                     
                                                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Revenues.............................................     19.1     18.9     18.8     18.7     18.6     18.5     18.5     18.5     18.5     18.5     18.5
Outlays:                                                                                                                                                
    Discretionary....................................      7.1      7.0      6.6      6.5      6.4      6.3      6.2      6.1      5.9      5.8      5.7
    Mandatory:                                                                                                                                          
        Social Security..............................      4.6      4.6      4.6      4.6      4.6      4.6      4.6      4.6      4.6      4.6      4.7
        Medicare.....................................      2.6      2.8      2.9      3.0      3.1      3.2      3.3      3.4      3.6      3.7      3.8
        Medicaid.....................................      1.3      1.3      1.4      1.5      1.5      1.6      1.7      1.8      3.8      1.9      2.0
        Civil service and military retirement........      1.0      1.0      1.0      1.0      1.0      0.9      1.0      0.9      1.0      1.0      1.0
        Other........................................      2.3      2.4      2.4      2.4      2.4      2.3      2.3      2.3      2.3      2.3      2.2
                                                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Subtotal...................................     11.7       12     12.3     12.4     12.6     12.7     12.9     13.1     13.3     13.6     13.7
                                                      ==================================================================================================
    Deposit insurance................................     -0.1     -0.1    (\1\)    (\1\)    (\1\)    (\1\)    (\1\)    (\1\)    (\1\)    (\1\)    (\1\)
    Net interest.....................................      3.2      3.1      3.1      3.1      3.1      3.1      3.1      3.1      3.2      3.2      3.2
    Offsetting receipts..............................       -1     -1.1     -0.9     -0.9     -0.9     -0.9     -0.9     -0.8     -0.8     -0.8     -0.8
                                                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Total......................................       21     21.1     21.1     21.2     21.3     21.3     21.4     21.5     21.6     21.8     21.9
                                                      ==================================================================================================
Deficit..............................................      1.9      2.2      2.4      2.5      2.7      2.7      2.9      3.0      3.1      3.3      3.3
Debt held by the public..............................     50.3     50.5     50.8     51.3     51.8     52.3     52.9     53.6     54.3     55.2     56.0
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Less than 0.05 percent of GDP.                                                                                                                      
                                                                                                                                                        
Note.--Congressional Budget Office expects that under current policies, revenues will remain just under 19 percent of GDP (see the table above), but    
  spending growth will outstrip revenues. Outlays climb by 2 percent of GDP in the 1998-2003 period. Within the spending totals, some categories grow   
  and others shrink. The government's big health care programs--Medicare and Medicaid--continue to soar, and together they represent 7 percent of GDP in
  2003 (compared with 5.2 percent in 1998). Net interest outlays inch up from 3.7 percent of GDP in 1998 to 4.5 percent in 2003. Social Security        
  benefits stay at about 4.9 percent of GDP. In 2003, the big demands that the baby-boom generation will place on Social Security and Medicare are still
  more than 5 years away. Most other spending programs roughly preserve their 1998 shares. A sole exception is discretionary spending--defense,         
  international, and domestic. These programs are assumed in the baseline projections, to keep up with inflation once the Budget Enforcement Act's caps 
  expire in 1995. They, therefore, dwindle gradually as a share of GDP, from 7.4 percent in 1998 (already a historic low) to 6.9 percent in 2003.       
Economic assumptions are critical to these projections. In the 1999-2003 period, Congressional Budget Office posits that real economic growth will      
  continue at about 2 percent a year. The unemployment rate remains at about 5.6 percent, down very slightly from 1998's level. Short-term interest     
  rates (as measured by 3-month Treasury bills) and longer term rates (such as 10-year Treasury notes) are also assumed to remain constant, at 4.9 and  
  6.4 percent, respectively. Inflation continues at 2.7 percent. Five-year budget projections are highly uncertain, and 10-year extrapolations are even 
  more so. Some key uncertainties surround the assumptions about economic performance (chiefly, real economic growth and interest rates), and others are
  more narrowly budget related: uncertainty about the continued surge in medical care expenditures, the size and timing of outlays for deposit          
  insurance, etc. Congressional Budget Office's projections, uncertain though they are, nevertheless call into question the comfortable notion that the 
  deficit will eventually go away of its own accord.                                                                                                    
In certain instances, subtotals, totals and the deficit are not exact due to rounding.                                                                  
                                                                                                                                                        
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                                                                    


         TABLE I-2.--CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE PROJECTIONS FOR OUTLAYS UNDER CURRENT-POLICY ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS WITH DISCRETIONARY INFLATION         
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                    Fiscal year                                         
                                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                     Outlay category                      Actual                                                                                        
                                                           1995    1996    1997    1998    1999    2000    2001    2002    2003    2004    2005    2006 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                              In billions of dollars                                    
                                                                                                                                                        
                                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Discretionary: \1\                                                                                                                                      
    Defense.............................................    $274    $265    $272    $278    $286    $297    $299    $311    $320    $330    $344    $351
    Domestic and international..........................     272     267     272     278     286     293     301     310     320     330     340     351
    Violent Crime Reduction Trust Fund..................   (\2\)       1       2       3       4       3       3       4       4       4       4       4
    Unspecified reductions..............................       0       0       0     -12     -12     -14      -8     -11     -12     -13     -17     -15
                                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal..........................................     546     533     546     546     563     579     596     614     632     651     671     691
                                                         ===============================================================================================
Mandatory spending......................................     822     875     946   1,011   1,070   1,141   1,205   1,285   1,369   1,457   1,557   1,655
Offsetting receipts.....................................     -80     -75     -84     -77     -76     -79     -81     -85     -88     -90     -93     -96
Net interest............................................     232     240     246     257     271     283     296     311     328     346     365     385
                                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total.............................................   1,519   1,572   1,654   1,737   1,828   1,925   2,016   2,125   2,242   2,365   2,500   2,636
          Onbudget......................................   1,230   1,272   1,340   1,410   1,491   1,573   1,648   1,743   1,844   1,952   2,071   2,190
          Offbudget \3\.................................     289     300     314     327     337     352     368     382     398     413     429     446
                                                                                                                                                        
                                                         ===============================================================================================
                                                                                              As a percentage of GDP                                    
                                                                                                                                                        
                                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Discretionary: \1\                                                                                                                                      
    Defense.............................................     3.8     3.5     3.5     3.4     3.3     3.3     3.2     3.1     3.1     3.0     3.0     2.9
    Domestic and international..........................     3.8     3.6     3.5     3.4     3.3     3.2     3.2     3.1     3.1     3.0     3.0     2.9
    Violent Crime Reduction Trust Fund..................   (\4\)   (\4\)   (\4\)   (\4\)   (\4\)   (\4\)   (\4\)   (\4\)   (\4\)   (\4\)   (\4\)   (\4\)
    Unspecified reductions..............................       0       0       0    -0.1    -0.1    -0.2    -0.1    -0.1    -0.1    -0.1    -0.2    -0.1
                                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal..........................................     7.6     7.1     7.0     6.6     6.5     6.4     6.3     6.2     6.1     5.9     5.8     5.7
                                                         ===============================================================================================
Mandatory spending......................................    11.4    11.7    12.0    12.3    12.4    12.6    12.7    12.9    13.1    13.3    13.6    13.7
Offsetting receipts.....................................    -1.1    -1.0    -1.1    -0.9    -0.9    -0.9    -0.9    -0.9    -0.8    -0.8    -0.8    -0.8
Net interest............................................     3.2     3.2     3.1     3.1     3.1     3.1     3.1     3.1     3.1     3.2     3.2     3.2
                                                         -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total.............................................    21.2    21.0    21.1    21.1    21.2    21.3    21.3    21.4    21.5    21.6    21.8    21.9
          Onbudget......................................    17.1    17.0    17.1    17.1    17.3    17.4    17.4    17.5    17.7    17.8    18.0    18.2
          Offbudget \3\.................................     4.0     4.0     4.0     4.0     3.9     3.9     3.9     3.8     3.8     3.8     3.7     3.7
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Projections assume that discretionary spending is adjusted for inflation up to the statutory caps that are in effect through 1998. All discretionary
  spending other than spending from the Violent Crime Reduction Trust Frund is assumed to equal the caps in 1998 and to grow from that level at the rate
  of inflation in later years. Unspecified reductions show the cuts that would be needed to satisfy the caps.                                           
\2\ Less than $500 million.                                                                                                                             
\3\ Social Security and the Postal Service.                                                                                                             
\4\ Less than 0.05 percent of gross domestic product.                                                                                                   
                                                                                                                                                        
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                                                                    


  TABLE I-3.--OUTLAYS FOR MAJOR SPENDING CATEGORIES IN NOMINAL DOLLARS AND AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP FOR SELECTED  
                                                  YEARS 1965-95                                                 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                            Fiscal year                         
                Spending category                 --------------------------------------------------------------
                                                     1965     1970     1975     1980     1985     1990     1995 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                   In nominal dollars (billions)                
                                                                                                                
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
Defense discretionary............................    $51.0    $81.9    $87.6   $134.6   $253.1   $300.1   $273.5
International discretionary......................      4.7      4.0      8.2     12.8     17.4     19.1     20.1
Domestic discretionary...........................     22.1     34.3     62.0    128.7    145.2    181.2    252.0
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, discretionary......................     77.8    120.2    157.8    276.1    415.7    500.4    545.7
                                                  ==============================================================
Social Security..................................     17.1     29.6     63.6    117.1    186.4    246.5    333.3
Medicare.........................................        0      6.8     14.1     34.0     69.7    107.4    177.1
Medicaid.........................................      0.3      2.7      6.8     14.0     22.7     41.1     89.1
AFDC, SSI, food stamps...........................      2.8      4.7     14.1     22.2     30.4     39.7     67.2
Deposit insurance................................     -0.4     -0.5      0.5     -0.4     -2.2     57.9    -17.9
Other entitlements and mandatories...............     12.0     17.7     52.2     75.4     94.2     75.3     92.4
Net interest.....................................      8.6     14.4     23.2     52.5    129.5    184.2    232.2
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
    Total........................................    118.2    195.6    332.3    590.9    946.4  1,252.5  1,519.1
                                                  ==============================================================
Memo: GDP........................................    687.0  1,009.6  1,554.2  2,718.9  4,108.0  5,682.9  7,180.7
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                       As a percentage of GDP                   
                                                                                                                
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
Defense discretionary............................      7.4      8.1      5.6      5.0      6.2      5.3      3.8
International discretionary......................      0.7      0.4      0.5      0.5      0.4      0.3      0.3
Domestic discretionary...........................      3.2      3.4      4.0      4.7      3.5      3.2      3.5
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, discretionary......................     11.3     11.9     10.2     10.2     10.1      8.8      7.6
                                                  ==============================================================
Social Security..................................      2.5      2.9      4.1      4.3      4.5      4.3      4.6
Medicare.........................................      0.0      0.7      0.9      1.2      1.7      1.9      2.5
Medicaid.........................................      0.0      0.3      0.4      0.5      0.6      0.7      1.2
AFDC, SSI, food stamps...........................      0.4      0.5      0.9      0.8      0.7      0.7      0.9
Deposit insurance................................     -0.1     -0.0        0        0     -0.1      1.0     -0.2
Other entitlements and mandatories...............      1.7      1.8      3.4      2.8      2.3      1.3      1.3
Net interest.....................................      1.3      1.4      1.5      1.9      3.2      3.2      3.2
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
    Total........................................     17.2     19.4     21.4     21.7     23.0     22.0     21.2
                                                  ==============================================================
Memo: Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.....      2.5      3.9      5.4      6.0      6.8      6.9      8.3
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     As a percentage of budget                  
                                                                                                                
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
Defense discretionary............................     43.2     41.9     26.4     22.8     26.7     24.0     18.0
International discretionary......................      4.0      2.0      2.5      2.2      1.8      1.5      1.3
Domestic discretionary...........................     18.7     17.5     18.7     21.8     15.3     14.5     16.6
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal, discretionary......................     65.8     61.4     47.5     46.7     43.9     40.0     35.9
                                                  ==============================================================
Social Security..................................     14.4     15.2     19.1     19.8     19.7     19.7     21.9
Medicare.........................................        0      3.5      4.2      5.8      7.4      8.6     11.7
Medicaid.........................................      0.3      1.4      2.0      2.4      2.4      3.3      5.9
AFDC, SSI, food stamps...........................      2.4      2.4      4.2      3.8      3.2      3.2      4.4
Deposit insurance................................     -0.3     -0.3      0.2     -0.1     -0.2      4.6     -1.2
Other entitlements and mandatories...............     10.2      9.0     15.8     12.8     10.0      6.0      6.1
Net interest.....................................      7.3      7.4      7.0      8.9     13.7     14.7     15.3
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
    Total........................................    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note.--Totals may not be exact due to rounding.                                                                 
                                                                                                                
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                            


 TABLE I-4.--CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE OUTLAY PROJECTIONS FOR SELECTED PROGRAMS WITHIN THE JURISDICTION OF THE
                             COMMITTEE ON WAYS AND MEANS FOR FISCAL YEARS 1995-2001                             
                                            [In billions of dollars]                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                         Fiscal year                            
                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Program                     1995                                                              
                                             actual     1996      1997      1998      1999      2000      2001  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Social Security...........................    $301.6      $318    $334.8    $353.4      $370    $388.6      $408
    OASI..................................       268       281     294.6     309.7     322.9     337.9     353.6
    DI....................................      33.6        37      40.2      43.7      47.1      50.7      54.4
Medicare..................................     124.2       160     177.3     195.1     215.6     237.8     263.4
    HI....................................      77.9     100.8     110.5     119.5     130.1     141.7     155.5
    SMI...................................      46.3      59.2      66.8      75.6      85.5      96.1     107.9
Trade adjustment..........................       0.1       0.2       0.2       0.2       0.2       0.2       0.2
Unemployment insurance....................      36.3      27.8      24.6      25.4      25.7        26        27
Family support............................        16        17        18        18        19        20        20
EIC--outlays..............................       8.8       9.9      15.3      18.1      20.1      20.1      21.7
SSI.......................................        21        25        24        24        29        32        35
Title XX--social services.................       2.8       2.9       3.2       3.3       2.8       2.8       2.8
Child welfare.............................       0.3       0.3       0.3       0.3       0.3       0.3       0.3
Foster care and adoption assistance.......       2.6         3       3.6       3.8         4       4.4       4.7
Child health insurance credit.............       0.6       0.7         0         0         0         0         0
Child care and development block grant....       0.7       0.9       1.3       1.2       1.2         1         1
SMI premium...............................     -16.1     -17.4     -19.9     -19.9     -22.5     -22.7     -27.4
                                           ---------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total...............................     498.9     548.3     582.7     622.9     665.4     707.5     756.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                            


                                           TABLE I-5.--HISTORICAL OUTLAYS FOR ENTITLEMENTS AND OTHER MANDATORY SPENDING, SELECTED FISCAL YEARS 1975-95                                          
                                                                                    [In billions of dollars]                                                                                    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                        Fiscal year                                                             
                        Category                         ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           1975    1980    1981    1982    1983    1984    1985    1986    1987    1988    1989    1990    1991    1992    1993    1994    1995 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Means-tested programs:                                                                                                                                                                          
    Student loans \1\...................................    $0.1    $1.4    $2.3    $3.0    $2.6    $3.2    $3.5    $3.3    $2.5    $2.8    $3.9    $4.4    $4.8    $1.7    $2.2    $2.8    $4.4
    Medicaid............................................     6.8    14.0    16.8    17.4    19.0    20.1    22.7    25.0    27.4    30.5    34.6    41.1    52.5    67.8    75.8    82.0    89.1
    Food stamps.........................................     4.6     9.1    11.3    11.0    12.7    12.4    12.5    12.4    12.4    13.1    13.7    15.9    19.6    22.8    24.6    25.4    25.6
    Child nutrition.....................................     1.5     3.4     3.4     3.0     3.3     3.5     3.7     3.8     4.0     4.3     4.6     5.0     5.5     6.1     6.6     7.0     7.5
    Earned income tax credit............................       0     1.3     1.3     1.2     1.2     1.2     1.1     1.4     1.4     2.7     4.0     4.4     4.9     8.2     9.4    11.7    15.2
    Supplemental security income........................     4.3     5.7     6.5     6.9     7.9     7.6     8.7     9.3     9.9    11.4    11.5    11.5    14.8    17.9    21.2    24.5    24.5
    Family support......................................     5.1     7.3     8.2     8.0     8.4     8.9     9.2     9.9    10.5    10.8    11.2    12.2    14.1    15.7    16.4    17.3    18.1
    Veterans' pensions..................................     2.7     3.6     3.8     3.9     3.9     3.9     3.8     3.9     3.8     3.9     4.0     3.6     4.0     3.7     3.5     3.4     3.0
    Other...............................................     0.3     0.1     0.3     0.4     0.3     0.5     0.8     0.9     1.0     1.0     1.3     1.8     2.1     2.5     2.7     3.0     3.2
                                                         ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Total, means-tested programs......................    25.4    45.9    53.9    54.8    59.3    61.3    66.0    69.9    72.9    80.5    88.8    99.9   122.3   146.5   162.3   177.3   190.6
                                                         =======================================================================================================================================
Non-means-tested programs:                                                                                                                                                                      
    Medicare............................................    14.1    34.0    41.3    49.2    55.5    61.0    69.7    74.2    79.9    85.7    94.3   107.4   114.2   129.4   143.2   159.6   177.1
    Social Security.....................................    63.6   117.1   137.9   153.9   168.5   176.1   186.4   196.5   205.1   216.8   230.4   246.5   266.7   285.1   302.0   316.9   333.3
                                                         ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal..........................................    77.7   151.1   179.2   203.1   224.0   237.1   256.1   270.7   285.0   302.5   324.7   353.9   380.9   414.5   445.1   476.5   510.4
                                                         =======================================================================================================================================
Other retirement and disability:                                                                                                                                                                
    Federal civilian \3\................................     7.4    15.5    18.6    20.6    22.1    23.3    24.6    25.0    27.6    30.3    31.8    33.7    36.9    37.0    38.8    40.3    42.7
    Military............................................     6.2    11.9    13.7    14.9    15.9    16.5    15.8    17.6    18.1    19.0    20.2    21.5    23.1    24.5    25.7    26.7    27.8
    Other...............................................     4.7     4.7     5.1     5.2     5.2     4.9     5.1     4.9     5.1     4.9     5.2     4.7     4.4     5.1     4.2     5.3     4.7
                                                         ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal..........................................    18.3    32.1    37.4    40.7    43.2    44.7    45.5    47.5    50.8    54.2    57.2    59.9    64.4    66.6    68.7    72.3    75.2
                                                         =======================================================================================================================================
Other programs:                                                                                                                                                                                 
    Unemployment compensation...........................    12.8    16.9    18.3    22.2    29.7    17.0    15.8    16.1    15.5    13.6    13.9    17.5    25.1    36.9    35.4    26.4    21.3
    Farm price supports.................................     0.6     2.8     4.0    11.7    18.9     7.3    17.7    25.8    22.4    12.2    10.6     6.5    10.1     9.2    15.6     9.9     5.8
    Social services.....................................     2.9     3.7     3.9     3.4     3.5     4.4     3.5     4.0     4.1     4.2     4.6     5.1     5.6     5.2     5.1     5.6     5.5
    Veterans' benefits \3\..............................    10.2    11.0    12.2    12.5    12.7    12.8    12.9    12.9    13.0    14.8    14.9    13.4    14.4    15.7    18.0    18.0    18.3
    General revenue sharing.............................     6.1     6.8     5.1     4.6     4.6     4.6     4.6     5.1     0.1       0       0       0       0       0       0       0       0
    Other...............................................    10.4    21.2    26.6    19.8    15.8    17.1    27.9     7.7     6.4    12.3    12.5    10.4    13.1    16.7    11.4    11.1    14.6
                                                         ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal..........................................    30.2    45.5    51.8    52.0    55.5    46.2    66.6    55.5    46.0    43.5    42.6    35.4    43.2    83.7    50.6    38.0    41.9
      Total, non-means-tested programs..................   139.0   245.6   286.7   318.0   352.4   345.0   384.0   389.8   397.3   413.8   438.4   466.7   513.6   564.8   599.8   613.2   631.0
      Total outlays.....................................   164.4   291.5   340.6   372.8   411.7   406.3   450.0   459.7   470.2   494.3   527.2   566.6   635.9   711.3   762.1   790.6   821.5
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Formerly known as guaranteed student loans.                                                                                                                                                 
\2\ Includes Civil Service, Foreign Service, Coast Guard, other retirement programs, and annuitants' health benefits.                                                                           
\3\ Includes veterans' compensation, readjustment benefits, life insurance, and housing programs.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                                
 Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                                                                                                           


                                            TABLE I-6.--CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE OUTLAY PROJECTIONS FOR MANDATORY SPENDING, FISCAL YEARS 1995-2006                                           
                                                                            [By fiscal year, in billions of dollars]                                                                            
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 Actual                                                                                                                         
                                                                  1995      1996       1997       1998       1999       2000       2001       2002       2003       2004       2005       2006  
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                     Means-tested programs                                                      
                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                                              ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                                                                                                
Medicaid.....................................................    $89.070   $95.737   $104.781   $115.438   $126.366   $138.154   $151.512   $166.444   $182.955   $201.174   $221.239   $243.238
Food stamps \1\..............................................     25.554    26.220     28.094     29.702     31.092     32.476     33.847     35.283     36.663     38.152     39.717     41.310
Supplemental security income.................................     24.510    24.017     27.904     30.210     32.576     37.995     34.515     40.348     43.192     46.210     53.523     52.741
Family support...............................................     18.066    18.371     18.805     19.307     19.935     20.557     21.245     21.937     22.624     23.305     23.989     24.681
Veterans' pensions...........................................      3.024     2.771      2.961      2.938      3.366      3.714      3.234      3.601      3.729      3.892      4.420      4.345
Child nutrition..............................................      7.465     8.011      8.483      9.033      9.597     10.165     10.751     11.352     11.969     12.606     13.263     13.936
Earned income credit.........................................     15.244    18.440     20.191     20.894     21.691     22.586     23.412     24.157     25.033     25.881     26.749     27.641
Student loans \2\............................................      4.378     1.616      2.203      2.470      2.709      2.873      3.000      3.122      3.246      3.375      3.510      3.602
Other........................................................      3.226     3.712      4.050      4.434      4.830      5.255      5.701      6.165      6.658      7.182      7.739      8.327
                                                              ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total, means-tested programs.............................    190.557   196.895    217.472    234.426    252.162    273.775    287.217    312.409    336.089    361.777    394.149    419.821
                                                              ==================================================================================================================================
                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                                                                                                   Non-means-tested programs                                                    
                                                                                                                                                                                                
                                                              ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                                                                                                
Social Security..............................................    333.273   348.186    365.403    383.402    402.351    422.412    444.081    466.767    490.399    514.689    540.011    566.826
Medicare.....................................................    177.125   196.051    215.516    236.419    257.411    279.466    303.179    328.522    357.012    388.940    424.073    463.017
                                                              ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal.................................................    510.396   544.237    580.919    619.821    659.762    701.878    747.260    795.289    847.411    903.629    964.064  1,029.843
                                                              ==================================================================================================================================
Other retirement and disability:                                                                                                                                                                
  Federal civilian \3\.......................................     42.732    43.734     46.370     48.838     51.448     54.238     57.055     60.064     63.413     67.089     71.046     75.261
  Military...................................................     27.797    28.707     29.848     30.881     31.949     33.022     34.122     35.259     36.461     37.713     39.008     40.348
  Other......................................................      4.697     4.767      4.536      4.660      4.763      4.882      5.009      5.031      5.153      5.168      5.249      5.329
                                                              ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal.................................................     75.226    77.208     80.754     84.379     88.160     92.142     96.186    100.354    105.027    109.950    115.303    120.938
                                                              ==================================================================================================================================
Unemployment compensation....................................     21.305    23.579     25.555     26.613     27.644     28.698     29.814     30.989     32.215     33.510     34.840     36.228
Deposit insurance............................................    -17.859    -9.866     -4.538     -1.930     -2.090     -2.400     -1.910     -1.120     -0.930     -0.740     -0.690     -0.685
Other programs:                                                                                                                                                                                 
  Veterans' benefits \4\.....................................     18.300    17.197     18.699     18.964     19.514     20.955     18.838     20.284     20.554     20.840     22.293     21.474
  Farm price supports........................................      5.756     6.555      7.177      7.361      7.164      6.618      5.546      5.271      5.484      5.482      5.040      5.040
  Social services............................................      5.528     5.424      5.735      5.856      5.882      5.878      5.916      5.978      6.049      6.123      6.222      6.324
  Credit reform liquidating accounts.........................     -2.257    -7.078     -6.588     -5.771     -6.063     -6.025     -5.624     -5.817     -6.180     -6.120     -6.747     -6.811
  Other......................................................     14.585    18.682     20.391     21.280     18.345     19.954     22.007     21.010     23.255     23.015     22.780     22.794
                                                              ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Subtotal.................................................     41.912    40.780     45.414     47.710     44.842     47.380     46.683     46.726     49.162     49.340     49.588     48.821
    Total, non-means-tested programs.........................    630.962   675.938    728.104    776.593    818.318    867.698    918.033    972.238  1,032.885  1,095.689  1,163.125  1,235.145
    Total, all mandatory spending............................    821.539   874.833    945.576  1,011.019  1,070.480  1,141.473  1,205.250  1,284.647  1,368.954  1,457.466  1,557.274  1,654.966
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Includes nutrition assistance to Puerto Rico.                                                                                                                                               
\2\ Formerly known as guaranteed student loans.                                                                                                                                                 
\3\ Includes Civil Service, Foreign Service, Coast Guard, other retirement programs, and annuitants' health benefits.                                                                           
\4\ Includes veterans' compensation, readjustment benefits, life insurance, and housing programs.                                                                                               
                                                                                                                                                                                                
Note.--Spending for major benefit programs shown in this table includes benefits only. Outlays for administrative costs of most benefit programs are classified as nondefense discretionary     
  spending, and Medicare premium collections are offsetting receipts.                                                                                                                           
                                                                                                                                                                                                
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                                                                                                            


                     TABLE I-7.--OUTLAYS FOR MAJOR SPENDING CATEGORIES, FISCAL YEARS 1962-95                    
                                            [In billions of dollars]                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   Entitlements                                                 
                                         National    and other     Nondefense      Net     Offsetting    Total  
              Fiscal year                defense     mandatory   discretionary   interest   receipts    outlays 
                                                     spending       spending                                    
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1962..................................      $52.6        $34.7         $19.5         $6.9       $-6.8     $106.8
1963..................................       53.7         36.2          21.5          7.7        -7.9      111.3
1964..................................       55.0         38.9          24.1          8.2        -7.7      118.5
1965..................................       51.0         39.7          26.8          8.6        -7.9      118.2
                                                                                                                
1966..................................       59.0         43.4          31.2          9.4        -8.4      134.5
1967..................................       72.0         50.9          34.4         10.3       -10.2      157.5
1968..................................       82.2         59.7          35.8         11.1       -10.6      178.1
1969..................................       82.7         64.7          34.6         12.7       -11.0      183.6
1970..................................       81.9         72.6          38.3         14.4       -11.5      195.6
                                                                                                                
1971..................................       79.0         86.9          43.5         14.8       -14.1      210.2
1972..................................       79.3        100.9          49.1         15.5       -14.1      230.7
1973..................................       77.1        116.1          53.1         17.3       -18.0      245.7
1974..................................       80.7        131.0          57.3         21.4       -21.2      269.4
1975..................................       87.6        169.6          70.2         23.2       -18.3      332.3
                                                                                                                
1976..................................       89.9        189.4          85.4         26.7       -19.6      371.8
1977..................................       97.5        204.0          99.3         29.9       -21.5      409.2
1978..................................      104.6        227.7         113.8         35.5       -22.8      458.7
1979..................................      116.8        247.3         122.9         42.6       -25.6      503.5
1980..................................      134.6        291.5         141.5         52.5       -29.2      590.9
                                                                                                                
1981..................................      158.0        339.6         149.7         68.8       -37.9      678.2
1982..................................      185.9        370.9         139.9         85.0       -36.0      745.8
1983..................................      209.9        410.7         143.3         89.8       -45.3      808.4
1984..................................      228.0        405.7         151.2        111.1       -44.2      851.8
1985..................................      253.1        448.3         162.6        129.5       -47.1      946.4
                                                                                                                
1986..................................      273.8        461.8         164.5        136.0       -45.9      990.3
1987..................................      282.5        474.2         161.5        138.7       -53.0    1,003.9
1988..................................      290.9        504.9         173.4        151.8       -57.0    1,064.1
1989..................................      304.0        549.1         184.7        169.3       -63.9    1,143.2
1990..................................      300.1        626.7         200.3        184.2       -58.8    1,252.7
                                                                                                                
1991..................................      319.7        701.8         213.6        194.5      -106.0    1,323.8
1992..................................      302.6        715.8         231.9        199.4       -68.8    1,380.9
1993..................................      292.4        736.1         248.5        198.8       -67.1    1,408.2
1994..................................      282.3        783.1         261.6          203       -69.1    1,460.8
1995..................................      273.5        821.5         272.1        232.2       -80.2    1,519.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                            


         TABLE I-8.--OUTLAYS FOR MAJOR SPENDING CATEGORIES, AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP, FISCAL YEARS 1962-95        
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   Entitlements                                                 
                                         National    and other     Nondefense      Net     Offsetting    Total  
              Fiscal year                defense     mandatory   discretionary   interest   receipts    outlays 
                                                     spending       spending                                    
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1962..................................        9.3          6.1           3.5          1.2        -1.2       18.8
1963..................................        9.0          6.0           3.6          1.3        -1.3       18.6
1964..................................        8.6          6.1           3.7          1.3        -1.2       18.5
1965..................................        7.4          5.8           3.9          1.3        -1.1       17.2
                                                                                                                
1966..................................        7.8          5.7           4.1          1.2        -1.1       17.8
1967..................................        8.9          6.3           4.3          1.3        -1.3       19.4
1968..................................        9.4          6.9           4.2          1.3        -1.2       20.5
1969..................................        8.7          6.8           3.6          1.3        -1.2       19.4
1970..................................        8.1          7.2           3.8          1.4        -1.1       19.4
                                                                                                                
1971..................................        7.3          8.1           4.0          1.4        -1.3       19.5
1972..................................        6.7          8.6           4.2          1.3        -1.2       19.6
1973..................................        5.9          8.9           4.1          1.3        -1.4       18.8
1974..................................        5.6          9.1           4.0          1.5        -1.5       18.7
1975..................................        5.6         10.9           4.5          1.5        -1.2       21.4
                                                                                                                
1976..................................        5.2         10.9           4.9          1.5        -1.1       21.5
1977..................................        4.9         10.3           5.0          1.5        -1.1       20.8
1978..................................        4.7         10.3           5.2          1.6        -1.0       20.7
1979..................................        4.7          9.9           5.0          1.7        -1.0       20.2
1980..................................        5.0         10.7           5.2          1.9        -1.1       21.7
                                                                                                                
1981..................................        5.2         11.1           4.9          2.3        -1.2       22.3
1982..................................        5.8         11.5           4.4          2.6        -1.1       23.2
1983..................................        6.1         12.0           4.2          2.6        -1.3       23.6
1984..................................        6.0         10.6           3.9          2.9        -1.2       22.3
1985..................................        6.2         10.9           3.9          3.2        -1.1       23.0
                                                                                                                
1986..................................        6.3         10.6           3.8          3.1        -1.1       22.7
1987..................................        6.1         10.3           3.5          3.0        -1.1       21.8
1988..................................        5.9         10.2           3.5          3.1        -1.1       21.5
1989..................................        5.7         10.3           3.4          3.2        -1.2       21.3
1990..................................        5.3         11.0           3.5          3.2        -1.0       22.0
                                                                                                                
1991..................................        5.5         12.0           3.6          3.3        -1.8       22.6
1992..................................        4.9         11.6           3.8          3.2        -1.1       22.5
1993..................................        4.5         11.4           3.8          3.1        -1.0       21.8
1994..................................        4.1         11.5           3.8          3.0        -1.0       21.4
1995..................................        3.8         11.4           3.8          3.2        -1.1       21.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note.--GDP = gross domestic product.                                                                            
                                                                                                                
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                            


                           TABLE I-9.--REVENUES BY MAJOR SOURCE, FISCAL YEARS 1962-95                           
                                            [In billions of dollars]                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                        Estate                                  
                              Individual  Corporate    Social   Excise    and   Customs  Miscellaneous    Total 
         Fiscal year            income      income   insurance   taxes   gift    duties     receipts    revenues
                                 taxes      taxes      taxes             taxes                                  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1962........................     $45.6       $20.5      $17.0    $12.5    $2.0     $1.1        $0.8        $99.7
1963........................      47.6        21.6       19.8     13.2     2.2      1.2         1.0        106.6
1964........................      48.7        23.5       22.0     13.7     2.4      1.3         1.1        112.6
1965........................      48.8        25.5       22.2     14.6     2.7      1.4         1.6        116.8
                                                                                                                
1966........................      55.4        30.1       25.5     13.1     3.1      1.8         1.9        130.8
1967........................      61.5        34.0       32.6     13.7     3.0      1.9         2.1        148.8
1968........................      68.7        28.7       33.9     14.1     3.1      2.0         2.5        153.0
1969........................      87.2        36.7       39.0     15.2     3.5      2.3         2.9        186.9
1970........................      90.4        32.8       44.4     15.7     3.6      2.4         3.4        192.8
                                                                                                                
1971........................      86.2        26.8       47.3     16.6     3.7      2.6         3.9        187.1
1972........................      94.7        32.2       52.6     15.5     5.4      3.3         3.6        207.3
1973........................     103.2        36.2       63.1     16.3     4.9      3.2         3.9        230.8
1974........................     119.0        38.6       75.1     16.8     5.0      3.3         5.4        263.2
1975........................     122.4        40.6       84.5     16.6     4.6      3.7         6.7        279.1
                                                                                                                
1976........................     131.6        41.4       90.8     17.0     5.2      4.1         8.0        298.1
1977........................     157.6        54.9      106.5     17.5     7.3      5.2         6.5        355.6
1978........................     181.0        60.0      121.0     18.4     5.3      6.6         7.4        399.6
1979........................     217.8        65.7      138.9     18.7     5.4      7.4         9.3        463.3
1980........................     244.1        64.6      157.8     24.3     6.4      7.2        12.7        517.1
                                                                                                                
1981........................     285.9        61.1      182.7     40.8     6.8      8.1        13.8        599.3
1982........................     297.7        49.2      201.5     36.3     8.0      8.9        16.2        617.8
1983........................     288.9        37.0      209.0     35.3     6.1      8.7        15.6        600.6
1984........................     298.4        56.9      239.4     37.4     6.0     11.4        17.0        666.5
1985........................     334.5        61.3      265.2     36.0     6.4     12.1        18.5        734.1
                                                                                                                
1986........................     349.0        63.1      283.9     32.9     7.0     13.3        19.9        769.1
1987........................     392.6        83.9      303.3     32.5     7.5     15.1        19.3        854.1
1988........................     401.2        94.5      334.3     35.2     7.6     16.2        19.9        909.0
1989........................     445.7       103.3      359.4     34.4     8.7     16.3        22.8        990.7
1990........................     466.9        93.5      380.0     35.3    11.5     16.7        27.3      1,031.3
                                                                                                                
1991........................     467.8        98.1      396.0     42.4    11.1     15.9        22.8      1,054.3
1992........................     476.0       100.3      413.7     45.6    11.1     17.4        26.5      1,090.5
1993........................     509.7       117.5      428.3     48.1    12.6     18.8        18.6      1,153.5
1994........................     543.1       140.4      461.5     55.2    15.2     20.1        22.3      1,257.7
1995........................     590.2       157.0      484.5     57.5    14.8     19.3        31.9      1,355.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                            


               TABLE I-10.--REVENUES BY MAJOR SOURCE AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP, FISCAL YEARS 1962-95               
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                        Estate                                  
                              Individual  Corporate    Social   Excise    and   Customs  Miscellaneous    Total 
         Fiscal year            income      income   insurance   taxes   gift    duties     receipts    revenues
                                 taxes      taxes      taxes             taxes                                  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1962........................       8.0         3.6        3.0      2.2     0.4      0.2         0.1         17.6
1963........................       7.9         3.6        3.3      2.2     0.4      0.2         0.2         17.8
1964........................       7.6         3.7        3.4      2.1     0.4      0.2         0.2         17.6
1965........................       7.1         3.7        3.2      2.1     0.4      0.2         0.2         17.9
                                                                                                                
1966........................       7.3         4.0        3.4      1.7     0.4      0.2         0.2         17.3
1967........................       7.6         4.2        4.0      1.7     0.4      0.2         0.3         18.4
1968........................       7.9         3.3        3.9      1.6     0.4      0.2         0.3         17.6
1969........................       9.2         3.9        4.1      1.6     0.4      0.2         0.3         19.7
1970........................       9.0         3.3        4.4      1.6     0.4      0.2         0.3         19.1
                                                                                                                
1971........................       8.0         2.5        4.4      1.5     0.3      0.2         0.4         17.4
1972........................       8.1         2.7        4.5      1.3     0.5      0.3         0.3         17.6
1973........................       7.9         2.8        4.8      1.2     0.4      0.2         0.3         17.6
1974........................       8.3         2.7        5.2      1.2     0.4      0.2         0.4         18.3
1975........................       7.9         2.6        5.4      1.1     0.3      0.2         0.4         18.0
                                                                                                                
1976........................       7.6         2.4        5.2      1.0     0.3      0.2         0.5         17.2
1977........................       8.0         2.8        5.4      0.9     0.4      0.3         0.3         18.0
1978........................       8.2         2.7        5.5      0.8     0.2      0.3         0.3         18.0
1979........................       8.7         2.6        5.6      0.8     0.2      0.3         0.4         18.5
1980........................       9.0         2.4        5.8      0.9     0.2      0.3         0.5         19.0
                                                                                                                
1981........................       9.4         2.0        6.0      1.3     0.2      0.3         0.5         19.7
1982........................       9.3         1.5        6.3      1.1     0.2      0.3         0.5         19.2
1983........................       8.4         1.1        6.1      1.0     0.2      0.3         0.5         17.5
1984........................       7.8         1.5        6.3      1.0     0.2      0.3         0.4         17.9
1985........................       8.1         1.5        6.5      0.9     0.2      0.3         0.5         17.9
                                                                                                                
1986........................       8.0         1.4        6.5      0.8     0.2      0.3         0.5         17.6
1987........................       8.5         1.8        6.6      0.7     0.2      0.3         0.4         18.5
1988........................       8.1         1.9        6.7      0.7     0.2      0.3         0.4         18.3
1989........................       8.3         1.9        6.7      0.6     0.2      0.3         0.4         18.5
1990........................       8.2         1.6        6.7      0.6     0.2      0.3         0.5         18.1
                                                                                                                
1991........................       8.0         1.7        6.8      0.7     0.2      0.3         0.4         18.0
1992........................       7.7         1.6        6.7      0.7     0.2      0.3         0.4         17.7
1993........................       7.9         1.8        6.6      0.7     0.2      0.3         0.3         17.8
1994........................       7.9         2.1        6.8      0.8     0.2      0.3         0.3         18.4
1995........................       8.2         2.2        6.7      0.8     0.2      0.3         0.4        18.9 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note.--GDP = gross domestic product.                                                                            
                                                                                                                
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                            


 TABLE I-11.--FEDERAL REVENUES BY SOURCE FOR SELECTED YEARS IN NOMINAL DOLLARS AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP AND TOTAL 
                                                  REVENUES \1\                                                  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                            Fiscal year                         
                  Revenue source                  --------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    1965    1970     1975     1980     1985     1990      1995  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                   In nominal dollars (billions)                
                                                                                                                
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income................................   $48.8   $90.4   $122.4   $244.1   $334.5    $466.9    $590.2
Corporate income.................................    25.5    32.8     40.6     64.6     61.3      93.5     157.0
Social insurance.................................    22.2    44.4     84.5    157.8    265.2     380.0     484.5
Excise...........................................    14.6    15.7     16.6     24.3     36.0      35.3      57.5
Estate and gift..................................     2.7     3.6      4.6      6.4      6.4      11.5      14.8
Other............................................     3.0     5.9     10.4     19.9     30.6      44.0      51.2
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
      Total......................................   116.8   192.8    279.1    517.1    734.1   1,031.3   1,355.2
                                                  ==============================================================
                                                                       As a percentage of GDP                   
                                                                                                                
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income................................     7.1     9.0      7.9      9.0      8.1       8.2       8.2
Corporate income.................................     3.7     3.3      2.6      2.4      1.5       1.6       2.2
Social insurance.................................     3.2     4.4      5.4      5.8      6.5       6.7       6.7
Excise...........................................     2.1     1.6      1.1      0.9      0.9       0.6       0.8
Estate and gift..................................     0.4     0.4      0.3      0.2      0.2       0.2       0.2
Other............................................     0.4     0.5      0.6      0.8      0.8       0.8       0.7
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
      Total......................................    17.0    19.1     18.0     19.0     17.9      18.1      18.9
                                                  ==============================================================
                                                                    As a percentage of revenues                 
                                                                                                                
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income................................    41.8    46.9     43.9     47.2     45.6      45.3      43.6
Corporate income.................................    21.8    17.0     14.6     12.5      8.4       9.1      11.6
Social insurance.................................    19.0    23.0     30.3     30.5     36.1      36.9      35.8
Excise...........................................    12.5     8.1      5.9      4.7      4.9       3.4       4.2
Estate and gift..................................     2.3     1.9      1.7      1.2      0.9       1.1       1.1
Other............................................     2.6     3.0      3.7      3.9      4.2       4.3       3.8
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
      Total......................................   100.0   100.0    100.0    100.0    100.0     100.0     100.0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Projected.                                                                                                  
                                                                                                                
Note.--GDP = gross domestic product.                                                                            
                                                                                                                
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                            


TABLE I-12.--CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE BASELINE REVENUE PROJECTIONS BY SOURCE AND AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP, 1995-
                                                      2001                                                      
                                    [By fiscal year, in billions of dollars]                                    
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  Revenue source                     1995     1996     1997     1998     1999     2000     2001 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                            Projections                         
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income................................   $590.2   $636.1   $661.2   $694.1   $729.9   $768.7   $810.5
Corporate income.................................    157.0    169.2    171.1    172.0    171.2    190.9    173.8
Social insurance.................................    484.5    503.9    530.8    553.3    580.1    608.8    635.9
Excise...........................................     57.5     52.2     50.9     51.8     52.6     52.9     53.8
Estate and gift..................................     14.8     16.4     17.2     18.1     19.0     19.9     20.9
Customs duties...................................     19.3     19.9     20.2     20.7     21.1     22.2     23.5
Other............................................     31.9     30.4     31.8     33.6     35.1     37.1     39.2
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
      Total......................................  1,355.2  1,428.3  1,483.3  1,543.6  1,609.0  1,680.6  1,757.6
                                                  ==============================================================
                                                                       As a percentage of GDP                   
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
Individual income................................      8.2      8.5      8.4      8.4      8.5      8.5      8.5
Corporate income.................................      2.2      2.3      2.2      2.1      2.0      1.9      1.8
Social insurance.................................      6.7      6.7      6.8      6.7      6.7      6.7      6.7
Excise...........................................      0.8      0.7      0.6      0.6      0.6      0.6      0.6
Estate and gift..................................      0.2      0.2      0.2      0.2      0.2      0.2      0.2
Customs duties...................................      0.3      0.3      0.3      0.3      0.2      0.2      0.2
Other............................................      0.4      0.4      0.4      0.4      0.4      0.4      0.4
                                                  --------------------------------------------------------------
      Total......................................     18.9     19.1     18.9     18.8     18.7     18.6     18.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note.--GDP = gross domestic product.                                                                            
                                                                                                                
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                            


                       TABLE I-13.--REVENUES, OUTLAYS, AND DEFICITS, FISCAL YEARS 1962-95                       
                                            [In billions of dollars]                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                       Deficit (-) or surplus   
                                                                                  ------------------------------
                         Fiscal year                           Revenues   Outlays              Social    Postal 
                                                                                    Onbudget  Security   Service
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1962.........................................................     $99.7    $106.8      $-5.9     $-1.3      $0  
1963.........................................................     106.6     111.3       -4.0      -0.8       0  
1964.........................................................     112.6     118.5       -6.5       0.6       0  
1965.........................................................     116.8     118.2       -1.6       0.2       0  
                                                                                                                
1966.........................................................     130.8     134.5       -3.1      -0.6       0  
1967.........................................................     148.8     157.5      -12.6       4.0       0  
1968.........................................................     153.0     178.1      -27.7       2.6       0  
1969.........................................................     186.9     183.6       -0.5       3.7       0  
1970.........................................................     192.8     195.6       -8.7       5.9       0  
1971.........................................................     187.1     210.2      -26.1       3.0       0  
1972.........................................................     207.3     230.7      -26.4       3.1       0  
1973.........................................................     230.8     245.7      -15.4       0.5       0  
1974.........................................................     263.2     269.4       -8.0       1.8       0  
1975.........................................................     279.1     332.3      -55.3       2.0       0  
                                                                                                                
1976.........................................................     298.1     371.8      -70.5      -3.2       0  
1977.........................................................     355.6     409.2      -49.8      -3.9       0  
1978.........................................................     399.6     458.7      -54.9      -4.3       0  
1979.........................................................     463.3     504.0      -38.7      -2.0       0  
1980.........................................................     517.1     590.9      -72.7      -1.1       0  
1981.........................................................     599.3     678.2      -74.0      -5.0       0  
1982.........................................................     617.8     745.8     -120.1      -7.9       0  
1983.........................................................     600.6     808.4     -208.0       0.2       0  
1984.........................................................     666.5     851.8     -185.7       0.3       0  
1985.........................................................     734.1     946.4     -221.7       9.4       0  
1986.........................................................     769.1     990.3     -238.0      16.7       0  
1987.........................................................     854.1   1,003.9     -169.3      19.6       0  
1988.........................................................     909.0   1,064.1     -194.0      38.8       0  
1989.........................................................     990.7   1,143.2     -205.2      52.4       0.3
1990.........................................................   1,031.3   1,252.5     -277.8      58.2      -1.6
                                                                                                                
1991.........................................................   1,054.3   1,323.6     -321.6      53.5      -1.3
1992.........................................................   1,090.5   1,380.9     -340.5      50.7      -0.7
1993.........................................................   1,153.5   1,408.7     -300.5      46.8      -1.4
1994.........................................................   1,257.7   1,460.8     -258.8      56.8      -1.1
1995.........................................................   1,355.2   1,519.1     -226.3      64.4      -2.0 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                            


            TABLE I-14.--REVENUES, OUTLAYS, AND DEFICITS AS A PERCENTAGE OF GDP, FISCAL YEARS 1962-95           
                                            [As a percentage of GDP]                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                       Deficit (-) or surplus   
                                                                                   -----------------------------
                                                                Revenues   Outlays             Social    Postal 
                                                                                    Onbudget  Security   Service
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1962..........................................................      17.6      18.8      -1.0      -0.2       0  
1963..........................................................      17.8      18.6      -0.7      -0.1       0  
1964..........................................................      17.6      18.5      -1.0       0.1       0  
1965..........................................................      17.0      17.2      -0.2     (\2\)       0  
                                                                                                                
1966..........................................................      17.3      17.8      -0.4      -0.1       0  
1967..........................................................      18.4      19.4      -1.6       0.5       0  
1968..........................................................      17.6      20.5      -3.2       0.3       0  
1969..........................................................      19.7      19.4      -0.1       0.4       0  
1970..........................................................      19.1      19.4      -0.9       0.6       0  
                                                                                                                
1971..........................................................      17.4      19.5      -2.4       0.3       0  
1972..........................................................      17.6      19.6      -2.2       0.3       0  
1973..........................................................      17.6      18.8      -1.2     (\2\)       0  
1974..........................................................      18.3      18.7      -0.6       0.1       0  
1975..........................................................      18.0      21.4      -3.6       0.1       0  
                                                                                                                
1976..........................................................      17.2      21.5      -4.1      -0.2       0  
1977..........................................................      18.0      20.8      -2.5      -0.2       0  
1978..........................................................      18.0      20.7      -2.5      -0.2       0  
1979..........................................................      18.5      20.2      -1.6      -0.1       0  
1980..........................................................      19.0      21.7      -2.7     (\2\)       0  
                                                                                                                
1981..........................................................      19.7      22.3      -2.4      -0.2       0  
1982..........................................................      19.2      23.2      -3.7      -0.2       0  
1983..........................................................      17.5      23.6      -6.1     (\2\)       0  
1984..........................................................      17.4      22.3      -4.9     (\2\)       0  
1985..........................................................      17.9      23.0      -5.4       0.2       0  
                                                                                                                
1986..........................................................      17.6      22.7      -5.4       0.4       0  
1987..........................................................      18.5      21.8      -3.7       0.4       0  
1988..........................................................      18.3      21.5      -3.9       0.8       0  
1989..........................................................      18.5      21.3      -3.8       1.0   (\2\)  
1990..........................................................      18.1      22.0      -4.9       1.0   (\2\)  
                                                                                                                
1991..........................................................      18.0      22.6      -5.5       0.9   (\2\)  
1992..........................................................      17.7      22.5      -5.5       0.8   (\2\)  
1993..........................................................      17.8      21.8      -4.6       0.7   (\2\)  
1994..........................................................      18.4      21.4      -3.8       0.8   (\2\)  
1995..........................................................      18.9      21.2      -3.2       0.9  (\2\)   
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ End of year.                                                                                                
\2\ Less than 0.05 percent.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                
Note.--GDP = gross domestic product.                                                                            
                                                                                                                
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                            


                                               TABLE I-15.--FEDERAL FINANCES AND THE FEDERAL DEBT, 1955-96                                              
                                                                [In billions of dollars]                                                                
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                      Total deficit                         Federal debt, end of year                   
                                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                Gross          Held by government    Held by the public 
                           Fiscal year                                                 ----------------------       accounts       ---------------------
                                                                   Amount   Percentage                       ----------------------                     
                                                                              of GDP     Anount   Percentage            Percentage   Anount   Percentage
                                                                                                    of GDP     Anount     of GDP                of GDP  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1955............................................................      -3.0       -0.8      274.4       71.5       47.8       12.4      226.6       59.0 
1956............................................................       3.9        1.0      272.7       65.7       50.5       12.2      222.2       53.5 
1957............................................................       3.4        0.8      272.3       62.3       52.9       12.1      219.3       50.2 
1958............................................................      -2.8       -0.6      279.7       62.6       53.3       11.9      226.3       50.6 
1959............................................................     -12.8       -2.7      287.5       60.1       52.8       11.0      234.7       49.0 
1960............................................................       0.3        0.1      290.5       57.4       53.7       10.6      236.8       46.8 
1961............................................................      -3.3       -0.6      292.6       56.6       54.3       10.5      238.4       46.1 
1962............................................................      -7.1       -1.3      302.9       54.7       54.9        9.9      248.0       44.7 
1963............................................................      -4.8       -0.8      310.3       53.0       56.3        9.6      254.0       43.4 
1964............................................................      -5.9       -0.9      316.1       50.4       59.2        9.5      256.8       41.0 
1965............................................................      -1.4       -0.2      322.3       48.0       61.5        9.2      260.8       38.8 
1966............................................................      -3.7       -0.5      328.5       44.5       64.8        8.8      263.7       35.7 
1967............................................................      -8.6       -1.1      340.4       43.0       73.8        9.3      266.6       33.7 
1968............................................................     -25.2       -3.0      368.7       43.4       79.1        9.3      289.5       34.1 
1969............................................................       3.2        0.4      365.8       39.5       87.7        9.5      278.1       30.0 
1970............................................................      -2.8       -0.3      380.9       38.6       97.7        9.9      283.2       28.7 
1971............................................................     -23.0       -2.2      408.2       38.8      105.1       10.0      303.0       28.8 
1972............................................................     -23.4       -2.0      435.9       38.0      113.6        9.9      322.4       28.1 
1973............................................................     -14.9       -1.2      466.3       36.5      125.4        9.8      340.9       26.7 
1974............................................................      -6.1       -0.4      483.9       34.5      140.2       10.0      343.7       24.5 
1975............................................................     -53.2       -3.5      541.9       35.9      147.2        9.7      394.7       26.1 
1976............................................................     -73.7       -4.4      629.0       37.3      151.6        9.0      477.4       28.3 
TQ..............................................................  ........  ..........     643.6       36.2      148.1        8.3      495.5       27.8 
1977............................................................     -53.7       -2.8      706.4       36.8      157.3        8.2      549.1       28.6 
1978............................................................     -59.2       -2.7      776.6       36.0      169.5        7.9      607.1       28.2 
1979............................................................     -40.2       -1.7      828.9       34.1      189.2        7.8      639.8       26.3 
1980............................................................     -73.8       -2.8      908.5       34.4      199.2        7.5      709.3       26.8 
1981............................................................     -79.0       -2.7      994.3       33.5      209.5        7.1      784.8       26.5 
1982............................................................    -128.0       -4.1    1,136.8       36.4      217.6        7.0      919.2       29.4 
1983............................................................    -207.8       -6.3    1,371.2       41.3      240.1        7.2    1,131.0       34.1 
1984............................................................    -185.4       -5.0    1,564.1       42.3      264.2        7.1    1,300.0       35.2 
1985............................................................    -212.3       -5.3    1,817.0       45.8      317.6        8.0    1,499.9       37.8 
1986............................................................    -221.2       -5.2    2,120.1       50.3      383.9        9.1    1,736.7       41.2 
1987............................................................    -149.8       -3.4    2,345.6       52.7      457.4       10.3    1,888.7       42.4 
1988............................................................    -155.2       -3.2    2,600.8       54.1      550.5       11.4    2,050.8       42.7 
1989............................................................    -152.5       -2.9    2,867.5       55.4      678.2       13.1    2,189.9       42.3 
1990............................................................    -221.2       -4.0    3,206.3       58.5      795.8       14.5    2,410.7       44.0 
1991............................................................    -269.4       -4.7    3,599.0       63.4      910.4       16.0    2,688.1       47.4 
1992............................................................    -290.4       -4.9    4,002.1       67.6    1,003.3       16.9    2,998.8       50.6 
1993............................................................    -255.1       -4.1    4,351.4       69.5    1,103.9       17.6    3,247.5       51.9 
1994............................................................    -203.1       -3.1    4,643.7       70.0    1,211.6       18.3    3,432.1       51.7 
1995............................................................    -163.9       -2.3    4,921.0       70.3    1,317.6       18.8    3,603.4       51.4 
1996 \1\........................................................    -145.6       -2.0    5,207.3       71.0    1,438.6       19.6    3,768.7       51.4 
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ 1996 figures are estimates.                                                                                                                         
                                                                                                                                                        
Source: Executive Office of the President (1996, tables 1.1, 1.2, 7.1).                                                                                 


       TABLE I-16.--CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE PROJECTIONS OF INTEREST COSTS AND FEDERAL DEBT, 1996-2001       
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                 Fiscal year                    
                       Source                        Actual ----------------------------------------------------
                                                      1995    1996     1997     1998     1999     2000     2001 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              Net interest outlays (billions of dollars)        
                                                                                                                
                                                    ------------------------------------------------------------
Interest on public debt (gross interest) \1\.......     332     344      353      368      386      402      421
Interest received by trust funds:                                                                               
    Social Security................................     -33     -37      -41      -45      -50      -55      -61
    Other trust funds \2\..........................     -60     -61      -61      -60      -59      -58      -56
                                                    ------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal.....................................     -93     -98     -101     -105     -109     -121     -117
                                                    ============================================================
Other interest \3\.................................      -7      -6       -6       -6       -6       -7       -8
                                                    ------------------------------------------------------------
      Total, net interest, outlays.................     232     240      246      257      271      283      296
                                                    ============================================================
                                                                                                                
                                                           Federal debt, end of year (billions of dollars)      
                                                                                                                
                                                    ------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                
Gross Federal debt.................................   4,921   5,191    5,483    5,789    6,120    6,478    6,845
Debt held by government accounts:                                                                               
    Social Security................................     483     547      619      695      779      871      967
    Other government accounts \2\..................     834     874      897      912      920      920      912
                                                    ------------------------------------------------------------
      Subtotal.....................................   1,318   1,421    1,516    1,607    1,699    1,791    1,879
                                                    ============================================================
Debt held by the public............................   3,663   3,770    3,967    4,181    4,422    4,687    4,966
Debt subject to limit \4\..........................   4,885   5,154    5,446    5,751    6,083    6,440    6,808
                                                    ------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                
                                                                 Federal debt as a percentage of GDP            
                                                                                                                
                                                    ------------------------------------------------------------
Debt held by the public............................    50.2    50.3     50.5     50.8     51.3     51.8     52.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Excludes interest costs of debt issued by agencies other than the Treasury (primarily deposit insurance     
  agencies).                                                                                                    
\2\ Principally Civil Service Retirement, Military Retirement, Medicare, Unemployment Insurance, and the Highway
  and the Airport and Airway trust funds.                                                                       
\3\ Primarily interest on loans to the public and to the Resolution Trust Corporation and the Bank Insurance    
  Fund.                                                                                                         
\4\ Differs from the gross Federal debt primarily because most debt issued by agencies other than the Treasury  
  (currently about $20 billion) is excluded from the debt limit.                                                
                                                                                                                
Note.--Projections of interest and debt assume compliance with the discretionary spending caps in the Budget    
  Enforcement Act.                                                                                              
                                                                                                                
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                            


                                                                            TABLE I-17.--TRUST FUND BALANCES, 1981-95                                                                           
                                                                                    [In billions of dollars]                                                                                    
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                         Fiscal year                                                            
                          Account                          -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                             1981     1982     1983     1984     1985     1986     1987     1988     1989     1990     1991     1992     1993     1994     1995 
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Social Security...........................................     -$5      -$8    (\1\)    (\1\)       $9      $17      $20      $39      $52      $58      $54      $51      $47      $57      $60
Medicare..................................................       3        5       $6       $6        4        6        9       15       22       15       15       14       10        1       -7
Military retirement.......................................  ......  .......  .......  .......       12       12       14       14       14       12       13       12       10        8        7
Civilian retirement \2\...................................      11       12       14       15       18       19       18       19       20       22       24       26       28       28       28
Unemployment..............................................      -1       -4       -1        4        5        4        7        8        7        6       -3      -12        1        3        8
Highway and airport.......................................      -2       -1        1        4        2        1        2        2        4        2        4        2       -1       -5       -1
Other \3\.................................................       1        2        2        5        5        3        3        1        4        5        6        4        6        4        4
                                                           -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total trust fund surplus..............................       7        6       23       33       54       62       73       98      124      120      112       96      100       95       99
    Federal funds deficit.................................     -86     -134     -231     -218     -267     -283     -222     -253     -276     -342     -381     -386     -355     -299     -263
    Overall deficit.......................................     -79     -128     -208     -185     -212     -221     -150     -155     -153     -221     -270     -290     -255     -203     -164
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Less than $500 million.                                                                                                                                                                     
\2\ Includes Civil Service Retirement, Foreign Service Retirement, and several smaller funds.                                                                                                   
\3\ Includes primarily Railroad Retirement, Employees' Health Insurance and Life Insurance, Hazardous Substance Superfund, Foreign Military States, Veterans Life Insurance Trust Fund, other   
  trust funds, Overseas Private Investment Corp., Abandoned Mine Redemption Fund, Nuclear Disposal Fund, and Uranium Enrichment Decontamination and Decommissioning Fund.                       
                                                                                                                                                                                                
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                                                                                                            


                   TABLE I-18.--CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE PROJECTIONS OF TRUST FUND BALANCES                  
                                            [In billions of dollars]                                            
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                              Fiscal year                       
                     Trust Fund                      -----------------------------------------------------------
                                                        1996      1997      1998      1999      2000      2001  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Social Security \1\.................................       $64       $72       $76       $84       $92       $97
Medicare \2\........................................        -5       -14       -21       -28       -36       -46
Military Retirement.................................         3         2         2         1         1         1
Civilian Retirement \3\.............................        28        28        28        28        29        30
Unemployment........................................         6         5         4         3         3         4
Highway and Airport.................................        -2        -4        -3        -3        -3        -3
Other \4\...........................................         3         3         3         3         4         4
                                                     -----------------------------------------------------------
    Total trust fund surplus \5\....................        97        92        89        89        89        86
    Federal funds deficit \5\.......................      -241      -263      -283      -308      -334      -345
    Total deficit...................................      -144      -171      -194      -219      -244      -259
                                                     ===========================================================
Memorandum: Net transfers from Federal funds to                                                                 
 trust funds........................................       229       239       255       269       286       304
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Old-Age and Survivors Insurance and Disability Insurance.                                                   
\2\ Hospital Insurance and Supplementary Medical Insurance.                                                     
\3\ Civil Service Retirement, Foreign Service Retirement, and several smaller funds.                            
\4\ Primarily Railroad Retirement, employees' health insurance and life insurance, Superfund, and various       
  veterans' insurance trust funds.                                                                              
\5\ Assumes that discretionary spending reductions are made in nonfund programs.                                
                                                                                                                
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                            


 TABLE I-19.--CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE BASELINE, ADMINISTRATION, AND BLUE CHIP ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS, CALENDAR
                                                 YEARS 1995-2001                                                
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                          Forecast             Projected        
                  Projection category                    Estimated \1\ -----------------------------------------
                                                              1995       1996   1997   1998   1999   2000   2001
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Real GDP \2\ (percentage change, year over year):                                                               
    Congressional Budget Office........................         2.1       2.0    1.9    2.0    2.1    2.1    2.1
    Administration.....................................         2.1       2.2    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3
    Blue chip..........................................         2.1       1.9    2.1    1.9    2.0    2.4    2.3
                                                                                                                
GDP deflator (percentage change, year over year):                                                               
    Congressional Budget Office........................         2.5       2.6    2.8    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7
    Administration.....................................         2.5       2.8    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7    2.7
    Blue chip..........................................         2.5       2.3    2.4    2.4    2.5    2.5    2.4
                                                                                                                
Consumer price index \3\ (percentage change, year over                                                          
 year):                                                                                                         
    Congressional Budget Office........................         2.8       2.8    3.1    3.0    2.9    2.9    2.9
    Administration.....................................         2.8       2.8    3.0    2.8    2.8    2.8    2.8
    Blue chip..........................................         2.8       2.7    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.9    2.8
                                                                                                                
Civilian unemployment rate (percent): \4\                                                                       
    Congressional Budget Office........................         5.6       5.8    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0    6.0
    Administration.....................................         5.6       5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7    5.7
    Blue chip..........................................         5.6       5.8    5.9    6.3    6.3    6.1    6.1
                                                                                                                
Three-month Treasury bill rate (percent): \5\                                                                   
    Congressional Budget Office........................         5.5       4.9    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.8
    Administration.....................................         5.5       4.9    4.5    4.3    4.2    4.0    4.0
    Blue chip..........................................         5.5       4.8    4.8    5.2    5.1    5.0    4.9
                                                                                                                
Ten-year Treasury note rate (percent):                                                                          
    Congressional Budget Office........................         6.6       6.1    6.4    6.4    6.4    6.4    6.4
    Administration.....................................         6.6       5.6    5.3    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0
    Blue chip \6\......................................         6.6       5.8    5.9    6.4    6.3    6.3    6.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ The blue chip forecast was prepared 2 months later than the other forecasts, so the blue chip data for 1993 
  are actual.                                                                                                   
\2\ Based on constant 1987 dollars.                                                                             
\3\ Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U).                                                       
\4\ The Bureau of Labor Statistics changed the unemployment survey in January 1994. The Congressional Budget    
  Office and administration forecasts for 1994 through 1999 originally used 1993 methodology. The forecast      
  tables reported here have been adjusted upward 0.4 percentage points to make the forecasts comparable with    
  currently published figures. Data for 1993, shown in italics, use pre-1994 methodology.                       
\5\ Consumer price index for all urban consumers (CPI-U).                                                       
\6\ The blue chip does not project a 10-year note rate. The values shown here are based on the blue chip        
  projection of the AAA bond rate, adjusted by Congressional Budget Office to reflect the estimated spread      
  between AAA bonds and 10-year Treasury notes.                                                                 
                                                                                                                
Note.--The administration used Congressional Budget Office's economic forecast in its budget calculations. The  
  forecast labeled ``administration'' in this table reflects the administration's own forecast and includes its 
  estimate of its own programs' effects. The Congressional Budget Office forecast is based on data available    
  through December 1992 and does not reflect fourth-quarter data for gross domestic product or the consumer     
  price index published in January 1993. The blue chip forecasts are based on a survey of private forecasters   
  published on March 10, 1993. Congressional Budget Office's forecasts projections are based on current policy  
  assumptions, whereas the Administration's forecasts a projections are based on budget economic assumptions.   
                                                                                                                
Source: Congressional Budget Office; Office of Management and Budget; Eggert Economic Enterprises, Inc., Blue   
  Chip Economic Indicators.                                                                                     


     TABLE I-20.--EFFECTS ON CONGRESSIONAL BUDGET OFFICE BUDGET PROJECTIONS OF SELECTED CHANGES IN ECONOMIC     
                                             ASSUMPTIONS, 1996-2001                                             
                                    [By fiscal year, in billions of dollars]                                    
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                   Fiscal year                  
                            Category                            ------------------------------------------------
                                                                  1996    1997    1998    1999    2000     2001 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Real growth: Effect of 0.1 percentage point lower annual rate beginning January 1996              
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Change in revenues.............................................     $-1     $-2     $-4     $-6     $-8     $-10
Change in outlays..............................................   (\1\)       9       9       1       1        2
Change in deficit..............................................       1       2       4       7       9       12
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Inflation: Effect of 1 percentage point higher annual rate beginning January 1996               
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Change in revenues.............................................       8      23      38      55      73       92
Change in outlays..............................................       3      23      44      66      89      113
Change in deficit..............................................      -5       1       6      12      16       20
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
             Interest rates: Effect of 1 percentage point higher annual rate beginning January 1996             
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Change in revenues.............................................       0       0       0       0       0        0
Change in outlays..............................................       3      16      25      32      40       46
Change in deficit..............................................       3      16      25      32      40       46
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Less than $500 million.                                                                                     
                                                                                                                
Note.--See appendix C in Congressional Budget Office (1996) for an explanation of our revised rules of thumb    
  annual report.                                                                                                
                                                                                                                
Source: Congressional Budget Office.                                                                            


                                      TABLE I-21.--PRICE LEVELS, 1970-2002                                      
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      Chain-                                                                    
                                       type     All     CPI-U                                             CPI-X1
                Year                   GDP     items    fiscal    Food and    Housing  Medical   CPI-X1   fiscal
                                      price   (CPI-U)    year   beverage \1\             care              year 
                                      index                                                                     
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1970...............................     30.6     38.8     37.8        40.1       36.4     34.0     41.3     40.4
1971...............................     32.1     40.5     39.7        41.4       38.0     36.1     43.1     42.3
1972...............................     33.5     41.8     41.2        43.1       39.5     37.3     44.5     43.8
1973...............................     35.4     44.4     42.8        48.8       41.2     38.8     47.2     45.5
1974...............................     38.5     49.3     46.7        55.5       45.8     42.4     52.0     49.4
1975...............................     42.2     53.8     51.8        60.2       50.6     47.5     56.3     54.3
1976 \2\...........................     44.6     56.9     55.5        62.1       53.7     52.0     59.5     58.0
1977...............................     47.5     60.6     59.7        65.8       57.4     57.0     63.2     62.3
1978...............................     50.9     65.2     63.9        72.2       62.4     61.8     67.6     66.3
1979...............................     55.3     72.6     70.5        79.9       70.1     67.5     74.1     72.2
1980...............................     60.4     82.4     80.0        86.8       81.0     74.9     82.3     80.3
1981...............................     66.1     90.9     88.9        93.5       90.4     82.9     90.2     88.3
1982...............................     70.2     96.5     95.5        97.3       96.9     92.6     95.7     94.5
1983...............................     73.2     99.6     98.8        99.5       99.5    100.7     99.6     98.7
1984...............................     75.9    103.9    102.9       103.2      103.6    107.0    103.9    102.9
1985...............................     78.6    107.6    106.7       105.6      107.7    113.6    107.6    106.7
1986...............................     80.6    109.7    109.3       109.1      110.9    122.2    109.7    109.3
1987...............................     83.1    113.7    112.5       113.6      114.2    130.3    113.7    112.5
1988...............................     86.1    118.4    117.1       118.2      118.4    138.8    118.4    117.1
1989...............................     89.7    124.0    122.6       125.0      122.9    149.4    124.0    122.6
1990...............................     93.6    130.8    128.8       132.1      128.5    163.0    130.8    128.8
1991...............................     97.3    136.3    135.3       136.8      133.5    177.2    136.3    135.3
1992...............................    100.0    140.4    139.3       138.7      137.4    190.3    140.4    139.3
1993...............................    102.6    144.6    143.6       141.6      141.1    201.6    144.6    143.6
1994...............................    104.9    148.3    147.4       144.9      144.7    211.2    148.3    147.4
1995...............................    107.6    152.5    151.5       148.9      148.3    220.7    152.5    151.5
1996 \3\...........................    110.4    156.8    155.6  ............  .......  .......    156.8    155.6
1997 \3\...........................    113.5    161.6    160.4  ............  .......  .......    161.6    160.4
1998 \3\...........................    116.5    166.5    165.3  ............  .......  .......    166.5    165.3
1999 \3\...........................    119.7    171.4    170.1  ............  .......  .......    171.4    170.1
2000 \3\...........................    122.9    176.4    175.1  ............  .......  .......    176.4    175.1
2001 \3\...........................    126.2    181.6    180.2  ............  .......  .......    181.6    180.2
2002 \3\...........................    129.7    186.9    185.6  ............  .......  .......    186.9    185.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\1\ Includes alcoholic beverages, not shown separately.                                                         
\2\ In 1976, the fiscal year was moved from July-June to October-September. The 3-month period from July through
  September, 1976 is not represented in this table. The value for CPI-U during this period is 57.3; the value of
  CPI-X1 during this period is 59.9.                                                                            
\3\ Congressional Budget Office forecast from The Economic and Budget Outlook: Fiscal Years 1997-2006, May 1996.
                                                                                                                
Note.--Data beginning in 1978 are for all urban consumers; earlier data are for urban wage earners and clerical 
  workers. Data for CPI-U beginning 1983 incorporate a rental equivalence measure for homeowners' costs (the    
  measure used in determining CPI-X1) and therefore are not strictly comparable with earlier figures.           
                                                                                                                
Source: Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics;   
  and Congressional Budget Office.                                                                              

                               REFERENCES

Congressional Budget Office. (1995, August). The economic and 
        budget outlook: An update. Washington, DC: U.S. 
        Government Printing Office.
Eggert Economic Enterprises, Inc. (1996, July 10). Blue Chip 
        Economic Indicators. Alexandria, Virginia: Capitol 
        Publications.
Executive Office of the President. (1996). Budget of the United 
        States Government, fiscal year 1997 (Historical 
        Tables). Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing 
        Office.
Office of Management and Budget. (1996, July). Midsession 
        review of the 1997 budget. Washington, DC: Author.