Decennial Census: Preparations for Dress Rehearsal Underscore the
Challenges for 2000 (Testimony, 03/26/98, GAO/T-GGD-98-84).

GAO discussed the Census Bureau's preparations and operational plans for
its dress rehearsal for the 2000 Census, focusing on the progress that
the Bureau has made since July 1997.

GAO noted that: (1) the dress rehearsal for the 2000 Census is currently
under way at three sites: (a) Sacramento, CA; (b) 11 counties in the
Columbia, SC area; and (c) Menominee County in Wisconsin, including the
Menominee American Indian Reservation; (2) although it was originally
intended to demonstrate the Census Bureau's plans for the 2000 Census,
the dress rehearsal will instead leave a number of design and
operational issues unresolved; (3) these unresolved issues led GAO in
1997 to raise concerns about the high risk of a failed census in 2000;
(4) accurate address lists and associated maps are the building blocks
for successful census; (5) however, the Bureau has concluded that its
original procedures for building the 2000 Census address list might not
meet its goals of being 99 percent complete; (6) although the Bureau has
since revised its address list development procedures, they will not be
tested during the dress rehearsal, thus it will not be known until the
2000 Census whether they will meet the Bureau's goal; (7) the Bureau's
outreach and promotion initiatives are designed to boost mail response
rates and thus avoid costly follow ups to nonresponding households; (8)
while the Bureau is to rely on partnerships with the local governments
and organizations to raise public awareness of the census, the level of
participation in these efforts has been inconsistent during the dress
rehearsal, suggesting their impact on response in 2000 may be limited;
(9) uncertainties surround the Bureau's ability to staff the 295,000
mostly temporary office and field positions necessary to conduct the
census; (10) census jobs may not be as attractive as other positions,
and, if current trends continue, the Bureau could find itself competing
for workers in a tight labor market; (11) the Bureau's sampling and
statistical estimation procedures, while they could reduce costs and
improve accuracy if properly implemented, face methodological,
technological, and quality control challenges; (12) in addition to these
operational challenges, the Bureau has not finalized its plans for
evaluating the dress rehearsal, thus it is not known whether the
evaluations will provide needed data to assess the feasibility of the
Bureau's plans for the 2000 Census; (13) further, Congress has not
endorsed the Bureau's overall design of the 2000 Census because of its
concerns over the Bureau's plans to use statistical sampling and
estimation procedures; and (14) the longer this impasse continues, the
greater likelihood of a failed census.

--------------------------- Indexing Terms -----------------------------

 REPORTNUM:  T-GGD-98-84
     TITLE:  Decennial Census: Preparations for Dress Rehearsal 
             Underscore the Challenges for 2000
      DATE:  03/26/98
   SUBJECT:  Census
             Data collection
             Population statistics
             Statistical methods
             Human resources utilization
             Reengineering (management)
             Data integrity
             Interagency relations
             Mailing lists
             Quality assurance
IDENTIFIER:  Menominee Indian Reservation (WI)
             Sacramento (CA)
             Columbia (SC)
             Menominee County (WI)
             
******************************************************************
** This file contains an ASCII representation of the text of a  **
** GAO report.  Delineations within the text indicating chapter **
** titles, headings, and bullets are preserved.  Major          **
** divisions and subdivisions of the text, such as Chapters,    **
** Sections, and Appendixes, are identified by double and       **
** single lines.  The numbers on the right end of these lines   **
** indicate the position of each of the subsections in the      **
** document outline.  These numbers do NOT correspond with the  **
** page numbers of the printed product.                         **
**                                                              **
** No attempt has been made to display graphic images, although **
** figure captions are reproduced.  Tables are included, but    **
** may not resemble those in the printed version.               **
**                                                              **
** Please see the PDF (Portable Document Format) file, when     **
** available, for a complete electronic file of the printed     **
** document's contents.                                         **
**                                                              **
** A printed copy of this report may be obtained from the GAO   **
** Document Distribution Center.  For further details, please   **
** send an e-mail message to:                                   **
**                                                              **
**                                            **
**                                                              **
** with the message 'info' in the body.                         **
******************************************************************


Cover
================================================================ COVER


Before the Subcommittee on the Census,
Committee on Government Reform and Oversight
House of Representatives

For Release on Delivery
Expected at
10:00 a.m.  EST
Thursday
March 26, 1998

DECENNIAL CENSUS - PREPARATIONS
FOR DRESS REHEARSAL UNDERSCORE THE
CHALLENGES FOR 2000

Statement of L.  Nye Stevens
Director, Federal Management and Workforce Issues
General Government Division

GAO/T-GGD-98-84

GAO/GGD-98-84t


(410306)


Abbreviations
=============================================================== ABBREV

  CCC -
  ICM -
  LUCA -
  MAF -

DECENNIAL CENSUS:  PREPARATIONS
FOR DRESS REHEARSAL UNDERSCORE THE
CHALLENGES FOR 2000
====================================================== Chapter SUMMARY

The dress rehearsal for the 2000 Census is currently under way at
three sites:  Sacramento, CA; 11 counties in the Columbia, SC, area;
and Menominee County in Wisconsin, including the Menominee American
Indian Reservation.  Although it was originally intended to
demonstrate the Census Bureau's plans for the 2000 Census, the dress
rehearsal will instead leave a number of design and operational
issues unresolved.  These unresolved issues led GAO in 1997 to raise
concerns about the high risk of a failed census in 2000. 

Accurate address lists and associated maps are the building blocks of
a successful census.  However, the Bureau has concluded that its
original procedures for building the 2000 Census address list might
not meet its goal of being 99 percent complete.  Although the Bureau
has since revised its address list development procedures, they will
not be tested during the dress rehearsal, thus it will not be known
until the 2000 Census whether they will meet the Bureau's goal. 

The Bureau's outreach and promotion initiatives are designed to boost
mail response rates and thus avoid costly follow-ups to nonresponding
households.  While the Bureau is to rely on partnerships with local
governments and organizations to raise public awareness of the
census, the level of participation in these efforts has been
inconsistent during the dress rehearsal, suggesting their impact on
public response in 2000 may be limited. 

Uncertainties surround the Bureau's ability to staff the 295,000
mostly temporary office and field positions necessary to conduct the
census.  Census jobs may not be as attractive as other positions,
and, if current trends continue, the Bureau could find itself
competing for workers in a tight labor market. 

The Bureau's sampling and statistical estimation procedures, while
they could reduce costs and improve accuracy if properly implemented,
face methodological, technological, and quality control challenges. 

In addition to these operational challenges, the Bureau has not
finalized its plans for evaluating the dress rehearsal, thus it is
not known whether the evaluations will provide needed data to assess
the feasibility of the Bureau's plans for the 2000 Census.  Further,
Congress has not endorsed the Bureau's overall design of the 2000
Census because of its concerns over the Bureau's plans to use
statistical sampling and estimation procedures.  The longer this
impasse continues, the greater the likelihood of a failed census. 


DECENNIAL CENSUS:  PREPARATIONS
FOR DRESS REHEARSAL UNDERSCORE THE
CHALLENGES FOR 2000
==================================================== Chapter STATEMENT

Mr.  Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee: 

I am pleased to be here today to discuss the U.S.  Census Bureau's
preparations and operational plans for its dress rehearsal for the
2000 Census, which is currently under way at three sites: 
Sacramento, CA; 11 counties in the Columbia, SC, area; and Menominee
County in Wisconsin, including the Menominee American Indian
Reservation.  To the extent that the dress rehearsal mirrors the
actual census, the dress rehearsal could foreshadow how well key
census-taking activities might work in the decennial, and thus
indicate where additional congressional and Bureau attention is
needed now to ensure successful results in 2000.  My overall point
today is that the dress rehearsal, originally contemplated as a
concerted demonstration of a well-defined census design for 2000,
instead will leave a number of design and operational questions
unanswered.  These unresolved issues led us in 1997 to raise concerns
about the high risk of a failed census in 2000. 

At your request, my statement focuses on the progress, if any, that
the Bureau has made since July 1997,\1 when we reported that the risk
of a failed census in 2000 had increased since we originally
designated the 2000 Census as a high-risk area in February 1997.\2
Specifically, we pay special attention to the challenges the Bureau
faces in implementing such key census-taking activities as (1)
creating a complete and accurate address list, (2) increasing the
mail response rate through outreach and promotion, (3) staffing
census-taking operations with an adequate workforce, and (4) carrying
out its sampling and statistical estimation procedures.  These
subjects are covered extensively in our report prepared at the
request of the Chairman and Ranking Minority Member of the Senate
Committee on Governmental Affairs, which we are making available
today.\3 I also provide my preliminary observations on the status of
the Bureau's dress rehearsal evaluation program. 

To develop our report, we reviewed Bureau documents that describe the
Bureau's plans and procedures for the dress rehearsal, and
interviewed Bureau headquarters and regional officials.  To help
verify the Bureau's information and also obtain a local perspective
on the dress rehearsal activities, we (1) visited the Sacramento and
South Carolina dress rehearsal sites, and contacted Menominee
officials by telephone; (2) conducted in-person and telephone
interviews with local officials on their experiences in reviewing
address lists, promoting the census, andrecruiting and hiring census
workers; and (3) where applicable, reviewed relevant documents on
these activities. 

Information on the Bureau's dress rehearsal evaluation program was
obtained by conducting a content analysis of the Bureau's evaluation
proposals and by interviewing cognizant Bureau officials.  Since the
Bureau has yet to finalize its evaluation plans, our observations
should be considered preliminary. 


--------------------
\1 2000 Census:  Progress Made on Design, but Risks Remain
(GAO/GGD-97-142, July 14, 1997). 

\2 High-Risk Series (GAO/HR-97-2, Feb.  1997). 

\3 2000 Census:  Preparations for Dress Rehearsal Leave Many
Unanswered Questions (GAO/GGD-98-74, March 26, 1998). 


   BACKGROUND
-------------------------------------------------- Chapter STATEMENT:1

The 1990 Census was the most costly in history, and it produced data
that were less accurate than those from the 1980 Census.  About 6
million persons were counted twice in the 1990 Census, while 10
million persons were missed--for a total of 16 million gross errors
in the count.  Of particular concern was the fact that the 1990
Census was more likely to miss minority groups and renters,
particularly those living in rural areas. 

To address the problems that occurred in 1990, the Bureau redesigned
key components of the census, such as procedures for developing a
complete and accurate address list, increasing the mail response rate
through outreach and promotion, staffing census-taking operations
with a capable workforce, and reducing costs and improving accuracy
through sampling and statistical estimation.  However, Congress has
not endorsed the Bureau's overall design because of its concerns over
the validity, legality, and operational feasibility of the Bureau's
statistical sampling and estimation procedures.  Because of the
significant and long-standing operational and technical challenges
that the Bureau faces in taking the census, and the continuing
disagreement between Congress and the administration over the use of
sampling, in February 1997, we designated the 2000 Decennial Census
as being at high risk for wasted expenditures and unsatisfactory
results.\4 In July 1997, with still no agreement and uncertainties
surrounding the feasibility of some key census operations, we
reported that risks of a failed census in 2000 had increased.\5

According to the Bureau, questionnaires are to be delivered to
residents of the dress rehearsal sites by April 1, 1998.  The Bureau
is encouraging respondents to return their questionnaires by Dress
Rehearsal Census Day--April 18, 1998.  However, as is the case with
the actual census, the Bureau's dress rehearsal activities span a
much wider period of time than this single day.  Following the
selection of the dress rehearsal sites in July 1996, the Bureau
developed preliminary mailing lists and materials for these
locations, contacted local governments at the three sites, and
conducted staffing activities to hire temporary census employees in
those locations.  Similarly, after April 18, the Bureau is to develop
its census count by conducting the necessary follow-up activities at
nonresponding households and completing other fieldwork. 

The key to a successful dress rehearsal is making it as much like the
decennial census as possible.  Thus, according to the Bureau, the
dress rehearsal for the 2000 Census should test nearly all of the
various operations, procedures, and questions that are planned for
the decennial under as census-like conditions as feasible. 

However, as an indication of increasing congressional concern over
the Bureau's plans for the 2000 Census, the administration and
Congress agreed, as part of a compromise over the Bureau's fiscal
year 1998 appropriation,\6 that the Bureau would use sampling and
statistical estimation methods only in the Sacramento site, rather
than at all three dress rehearsal sites as it plans to do nationally
in 2000.  In the Columbia site, the Bureau is to follow up on all
nonresponding households just as it did nationwide in the 1990
Census.  At the Menominee dress rehearsal site, the Bureau is also to
follow-up on all nonresponding households, but is to use sampling and
statistical estimation to improve the accuracy of the population
count.  Although use of the different methods at the dress rehearsal
sites invites a comparison of the results, the dress rehearsal is not
a test of competing census designs.  Geographic, demographic, and
possibly other differences among the dress rehearsal locations
preclude such a comparison. 


--------------------
\4 High-Risk Series (GAO/HR-97-2, Feb.  1997). 

\5 2000 Census:  Progress Made on Design, but Risks Remain
(GAO/GGD-97-142, July 14, 1997). 

\6 Departments of Commerce, Justice, and State, the Judiciary, and
Related Agencies Appropriations Act, 1998, P.L.  105-119, Nov.  26,
1997. 


   PREPARATIONS FOR THE DRESS
   REHEARSAL UNDERSCORE THE
   CHALLENGES TO A SUCCESSFUL
   CENSUS
-------------------------------------------------- Chapter STATEMENT:2

At a point in the census cycle when the Bureau should be finalizing
its approach, it instead finds itself revising some of its basic
operational plans.  The key census-taking activities that we examined
are all facing operational challenges that could jeopardize the 2000
Census.  This, combined with the continuing disagreement between
Congress and the administration over the design of the 2000 Census,
increases the likelihood of a failed census--one on which the nation
would have spent billions of dollars and still have demonstrably
inaccurate results. 


      THE ACCURACY OF THE BUREAU'S
      ADDRESS LISTS AND MAPS IS
      UNCERTAIN, AND LOCAL REVIEWS
      MAY BE TOO SPORADIC TO
      GREATLY IMPROVE THEM
------------------------------------------------ Chapter STATEMENT:2.1

Complete and accurate address lists, along with precise maps, are the
foundation of a successful census.  Accurate addresses are essential
for delivering questionnaires, avoiding unnecessary and expensive
follow-up efforts at vacant or nonexistent residences, and
establishing a universe of households for sampling and statistical
estimation.  Accurate maps are critical for assigning correct
portions of the population to their proper locations--an operation
that is the foundation of congressional redistricting. 

To build its address list, which is known as the Master Address File
(MAF), the Bureau initially planned, in part, to (1) use addresses
provided by the Postal Service, (2) merge these addresses with the
address file the Bureau created during the 1990 Census, (3) conduct
limited checks of the accuracy of selected addresses, and (4) send
the addresses to local governments for verification as part of a
process called Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA).  However, the
Bureau's analyses of the completeness of the Postal Service's
addresses, when combined with the Bureau's 1990 addresses for a
selected number of locations, have shown that the resulting address
list was not always complete.  For example, address lists created in
1995 for two test locations did not include from 3.6 to 6.4 percent
of the addresses identified through other Bureau operations, such as
field verification. 

Following these and similar analyses for lists created in 1996, the
Bureau concluded in September 1997 that primary reliance on the
Postal Service's and the Bureau's 1990 address files was not
sufficient, and that it needed to redesign its procedures in order to
build a MAF for the 2000 Census that, as a whole, is 99 percent
complete.  Under the new procedures, which are estimated to cost an
additional $108.7 million, the Bureau now plans to canvass
neighborhoods across the nation to physically verify the completeness
and accuracy of the address file for the 2000 Census prior to local
address review.  While the components of the new approach have been
used and tested in prior censuses, the Bureau has not used or tested
them either in concert with each other or in the sequence as
presently designed for use in the 2000 Census, and does not plan to
do so in the dress rehearsal.  Consequently, it will not be known
until the 2000 Census whether the Bureau's redesigned procedures will
allow it to meet its goal. 

Further, the dress rehearsal results to date suggest that LUCA may be
too inconsistent and face too many obstacles to systematically verify
or increase the accuracy of the MAF.  For example, despite the
Bureau's efforts to encourage all local jurisdictions to participate,
just 34 of the 60 local jurisdictions involved with the dress
rehearsal participated in LUCA.  Reasons for the low participation
rate included the lack of resources and/or information to review
address lists or maps at the local level.  Jurisdictions that
participated in LUCA said that problems with the level of Bureau
assistance, as well as with the accuracy and completeness of the
address lists and maps, impeded their review efforts. 

Although the Bureau's reengineered address development procedures
call for obtaining earlier assistance from local governments to
review addresses and maps, this does not address other problems
encountered by local officials in reviewing address lists during the
dress rehearsal, such as the unavailability of Bureau assistance and
the inconsistent quality of the address list and maps. 


      THE BUREAU'S OUTREACH AND
      PROMOTION EFFORTS FACE
      OBSTACLES THAT COULD IMPEDE
      ITS ABILITY TO ACHIEVE ITS
      MAIL RESPONSE RATE OBJECTIVE
------------------------------------------------ Chapter STATEMENT:2.2

To help increase the mail response rate and thus reduce its costly
nonresponse follow-up workload, the Bureau plans to partner with
local governments and other organizations to raise public awareness
of the census.  The Bureau expects that its outreach and promotion
efforts, combined with other initiatives, such as simplified census
questionnaires, should produce a mail response rate of 66.9 percent
for the 2000 Census.  This is 12 percentage points higher than the
55-percent response rate that the Bureau expects it would achieve
without these activities and slightly higher than the 65-percent
response rate achieved in the 1990 Census.  Nevertheless, the
Bureau's experience thus far during the dress rehearsal suggests
that, in 2000, this goal might be difficult to achieve. 

According to the Bureau, the success of its outreach and promotion
efforts will depend heavily on the effectiveness of the partnerships
it hopes to build with state, local, and tribal governments; the
private sector; various media; and other organizations.  Citing
agency policy, the Bureau has said that it is unable to fund local
outreach and promotion efforts.  It is therefore placing a priority
on working with partners because they can help publicize the census,
foster participation, and dispel myths, among other activities. 

A critical component of the Bureau's local outreach and promotion
efforts are Complete Count Committees (CCC).  Consisting of elected,
business, community, social service, religious, and other local
leaders, CCCs are to help mobilize grassroots promotion efforts. 
However, not all of the dress rehearsal jurisdictions where the
Bureau hoped to establish committees had done so at the time of our
review.  For example, in South Carolina, of the 11 counties and the
City of Columbia participating in the dress rehearsal, just 3
counties and Columbia had active committees at the time of our
review.  The eight remaining counties either had not started
committees or had formed committees that subsequently became
inactive. 

We found that the operational problems the CCCs were encountering had
several sources.  Among these were communication difficulties between
the CCCs and the Bureau.  Four of the six active CCCs we contacted at
the three dress rehearsal sites indicated that the Bureau did not set
clear expectations for their CCCs, especially when they were first
initiated, and/or Bureau guidance and literature had been minimal. 

Another element of the Bureau's outreach and promotion strategy is a
paid advertising campaign.  In the 1990 Census, the Bureau relied on
pro bono public service advertising to get its message across.  In
October 1997, the Bureau announced that it had awarded its 2000
Census paid-advertising contract to Young & Rubicam, which is a
private advertising agency.  The Bureau has budgeted about $100
million dollars for this effort, of which about 80 percent has been
earmarked for buying advertising in print and broadcast media. 
Nevertheless, the advertising agency faces not only the familiar task
of developing public awareness of the census, but also the greater
challenge of motivating people to return their questionnaires in
spite of a long-term decline in the mail response rate.  While the
Bureau found that 93 percent of the public was aware of the census in
1990, the mail response rate was only 65 percent, 10 percentage
points lower than it was in 1980. 


      THE BUREAU COULD ENCOUNTER
      DIFFICULTIES STAFFING THE
      2000 CENSUS
------------------------------------------------ Chapter STATEMENT:2.3

For the 2000 Census, the Bureau estimates that it will need to
recruit over 2.6 million applicants to fill about 295,000 positions. 
Aside from the large numbers of people needed, hiring census workers
could be difficult because most census jobs are part-time and
temporary and do not come with such benefits as health insurance. 
Consequently, potential applicants may not find census jobs as
attractive as alternative work opportunities. 

To address this staffing challenge, the Bureau plans to focus its
recruitment efforts on people already employed who are seeking
additional work ("moonlighters"), and retirees.  The Bureau also
plans to pay employees a wage that is based on local rates and to
offer productivity incentives.  However, if current employment trends
continue, the Bureau could find itself recruiting workers in a
tighter labor market than prevailed in 1990.  Furthermore, the
Bureau's decision to focus its recruitment efforts on moonlighters
and retirees is based on informal discussions with census workers
during the 1995 Census Test, the hiring practices of private survey
research firms, and census workforce studies that may not necessarily
be comparable to the 2000 Census situation. 


      THE BUREAU'S SAMPLING AND
      STATISTICAL ESTIMATION
      DESIGN FACES SEVERAL
      UNCERTAINTIES
------------------------------------------------ Chapter STATEMENT:2.4

Declining response rates have posed problems for the Bureau since it
began its mail-out/mail-back procedure in 1970.  Hundreds of
thousands of additional enumerators must be hired to collect census
information from an increasing number of nonresponding households. 
To reduce its nonresponse follow-up workload, the Bureau plans to
sample nonresponding households for the 2000 Census.  The Bureau has
also designed a procedure called Integrated Coverage Measurement
(ICM) by which it is to take a separate sample after the nonresponse
follow-up is completed to make adjustments to the census counts. 
However, these activities face several challenges. 

For example, it is uncertain whether the Bureau can complete its
nonresponse follow-up and ICM operations in the time allotted,
considering that in 1990 similar processes took longer even though
the amount of work was less.  In 1990, the Bureau allowed 4 weeks
from Census Day for mail response before beginning nonresponse
follow-up.  In 2000, the Bureau also plans to allow 4 weeks from
Census Day for mail response.  In 1990, nonresponse follow-up was
scheduled to last 6 weeks, but in some locations lasted 14 weeks.\7
For the 2000 Census, the Bureau will again allow 6 weeks for
completion of nonresponse follow-up.  In 1990, an operation similar
to the ICM was not completed until January 4, 1991, while for the
2000 Census, the Bureau plans to perform the same tasks for five
times the number of households by the end of September 2000. 

Uncertainties also surround the Bureau's ability to achieve its
target of a 98 percent questionnaire completion rate for ICM
operations.  If the ICM completion rate falls below 98 percent, there
is increased risk that ICM-based adjustments to census data may not
accurately reflect different segments of the population.  The need to
obtain a high response rate in a short time could require the Bureau
to collect data from neighbors and other individuals outside of the
nonresponding households, a method that in the past has been shown to
be less accurate. 


--------------------
\7 In 1990, Bureau enumerators were able to complete about 90 percent
of their followup workload within 8 weeks, with the final 10 percent
requiring more than 6 weeks to complete. 


   A RIGOROUS DRESS REHEARSAL
   EVALUATION PROGRAM IS CRITICAL
   TO THE ULTIMATE SUCCESS OF THE
   CENSUS
-------------------------------------------------- Chapter STATEMENT:3

A properly designed evaluation program that provides information on
the cost, performance, required resources, timing of various census
operations, and the quality and completeness of census data, is
essential for the Bureau to assess the feasibility of its operational
plans.  We believe that, to be most effective, the evaluation effort
needs to begin with a determination of what information will be
required to support critical decisions and when that information
needs to be available to Bureau and other decisionmakers.  However,
we are concerned that, with Dress Rehearsal Census Day a little over
3 weeks away, the Bureau's evaluation program plan is still a work in
progress, and that uncertainties surround the Bureau's approaches and
methodologies for carrying out specific studies. 

According to the Bureau, its dress rehearsal evaluation program or
"report card" is designed to validate plans for the 2000 Census,
measure coverage of persons and housing units, and evaluate the
completeness and quality of census data.  Specifically, it is to
consist of

  -- a status report to track the performance of key census
     operations at different points in time during the rehearsal,

  -- a quality assurance checkpoint system to monitor key dress
     rehearsal processes and signal where additional assistance is
     necessary to ensure operations remain on track, and

  -- a series of evaluations to determine how good the census data is
     in terms of statistical and other quality measures. 

The Bureau plans to establish a set of performance standards for
measuring success at each site.  Such performance standards are to
measure, for example, the completeness of the MAF and the
effectiveness of the paid advertising campaign.  The standards,
however, will not be used to measure the operational performance of
one site against another. 

In the March 10, 1998, draft of its evaluation program--the Bureau's
latest--the Bureau presented plans for 36 evaluations covering 8
census-taking operations, including address list development,
coverage improvement activities, and nonresponse follow-up and field
procedures.  However, even though key dress rehearsal operations are
already under way--and some have been completed--the Bureau has not
finalized its evaluation plans, and the methodologies for some of
these evaluations are not sufficiently defined to provide assurances
that needed evaluation data will be available on a timely basis.  The
Bureau continues to complete the methodological details of its
evaluations, and plans to issue those details as they are finished. 


------------------------------------------------ Chapter STATEMENT:3.1

In summary, although the Bureau has made progress in addressing some
of the problems that occurred during the 1990 Census, key activities
continue to face operational challenges at a disturbingly late stage
in the census cycle when the Bureau should be fine tuning rather than
revising its basic operational plans.  Moreover, the ongoing lack of
an agreement between Congress and the administration over the final
design of the 2000 Census has only added to the challenges facing the
Bureau.  So long as this condition persists, the risk of a failed
census in 2000 will continue to increase. 

We look forward to supporting congressional oversight of the planning
and conduct of the decennial census, and we will continue monitoring
the dress rehearsal and the census evaluation program, as well as the
Bureau's preparations for the decennial census. 

Mr.  Chairman, this concludes my prepared statement.  I would be
pleased to answer any questions you or other members of the
Subcommittee may have. 


*** End of document. ***