International Energy Agency: How the Agency Prepares Its World Oil Market
Statistics (Letter Report, 05/07/1999, GAO/RCED-99-142).

Oil companies, investment firms, governments, and other players in the
world oil market need timely and accurate information on world oil
supply, demand, and stocks to make decisions about current and future
sales and purchases of oil. The International Energy Agency (IEA), which
was established in the wake of the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo, is a source
of such information. This report answers the following questions: How
does IEA prepare its historical and projected world oil market
statistics? What accounted for the missing barrels in IEA's historical
world oil market statistics in 1998?

--------------------------- Indexing Terms -----------------------------

 REPORTNUM:  RCED-99-142
     TITLE:  International Energy Agency: How the Agency Prepares Its
	     World Oil Market Statistics
      DATE:  05/07/1999
   SUBJECT:  Surveys
	     International organizations
	     Economic analysis
	     Oil resources
	     Statistical data
	     Data integrity
	     Projections

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    United States General Accounting Office GAO                Report
    to the Chairman, Committee on the Budget, United States Senate May
    1999           INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY How the Agency Prepares
    Its World Oil Market Statistics GAO/RCED-99-142 United States
    General Accounting Office GAO    Washington, D.C. 20548
    Letter Resources, Community, and Economic Development Division B-
    282384
    Letter May 7, 1999 The Honorable Pete V. Domenici Chairman,
    Committee on the Budget United States Senate Dear Mr. Chairman:
    Oil companies, investment firms, governments, and other
    participants in the world oil market need timely and accurate
    information on world oil supply, demand, and stocks to make
    decisions about current and future sales and purchases of oil.1
    The International Energy Agency (IEA), among other sources,
    provides such information to participants in the world oil market.
    IEA is an organization of 24 industrialized member nations that
    was established in the wake of the 1973-74 Arab oil embargo.2
    Based in Paris, IEA is an autonomous organization within the
    framework of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
    Development (OECD).3  In addition to other functions, IEA develops
    detailed statistics on world oil supply, demand, and stocks that
    it publishes in its monthly Oil Market Report.  The objective of
    the report is to show historical statistics for the preceding 4
    years and up to 18 months of projections.4   In general, when the
    historical statistics show a difference between the quantity of
    oil supplied and the quantity demanded, that is, an excess of
    supply over demand, or vice versa, such a difference is expected
    to be reflected in a change in oil stocks.  Differences between
    the historical world oil supply 1 The International Energy Agency
    uses the term "stocks" to refer to oil in inventory.  Accordingly,
    unless otherwise stated, we will use stocks in this report to
    refer to oil in inventory. 2 The 24 member countries of IEA are
    Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Denmark, Finland, France,
    Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, the
    Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Sweden,
    Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. 3
    OECD is an international organization that monitors economic
    trends in the free market economies of its 29 members.  Its
    member-countries include the 24 IEA member nations and the Czech
    Republic, Iceland, South Korea, Mexico, and Poland. 4 IEA's oil
    market projections are prepared every summer and revised monthly.
    Page 1                                              GAO/RCED-99-
    142 International Energy Agency B-282384 and demand statistics
    that are not accounted for by changes in OECD oil stocks can be
    generally referred to as "missing barrels." 5 In its April 1998
    issue of the Oil Market Report, IEA reported that differences
    existed between its world oil supply and demand statistics that
    could not be accounted for by changes in stocks, implying that
    some oil was missing.  Concerned about the overall quality of
    IEA's world oil market statistics and the importance of such
    information to the world oil market, you asked us to review how
    IEA prepares its world oil market statistics and to examine the
    issue of the missing barrels.  Specifically, as agreed with your
    office, this report responds to the following questions:  (1) How
    does IEA prepare its historical and projected world oil market
    statistics? and (2) What accounted for the missing barrels in
    IEA's historical world oil market statistics in 1998? Results in
    Brief    IEA uses a "bottom-up" approach to prepare its historical
    and projected oil market statistics.  Under this approach, IEA
    constructs historical and projected oil market statistics for
    individual countries and adds them together to develop world
    totals.  For its historical statistics, IEA uses questionnaires
    and information from various other sources--such as national
    governments, international organizations, and oil companies--to
    obtain the data.  According to oil market experts we spoke with,
    IEA's historical statistics are the best available data on world
    oil supply, demand, and stocks.6  For its projected statistics,
    IEA uses its own analysis and judgments based on a number of
    factors that influence world oil supply and demand.  These factors
    include, for example, for supply, changes in oil production rates
    for 400 oil fields and, for demand, changes in the structure of
    the economy and energy demand of each country.  IEA keeps the
    price of oil constant throughout the projection period because the
    agency has a policy of not forecasting oil price. 5 IEA refers to
    these imbalances as "miscellaneous to balance" in its Oil Market
    Report but indicated that they can be referred to as missing
    barrels.  More specifically, IEA refers to the imbalances as
    missing barrels if non-OECD oil stocks are assumed to be zero and
    there is no change in the amount of oil in "floating
    storage"/transit (see the report section on IEA's Historical Oil
    Statistics for more discussion on oil in floating
    storage/transit). 6 Oil market experts and officials we contacted
    preferred not to be identified individually.  Accordingly,
    throughout the report, we have maintained their anonymity and, for
    the most part, presented aggregate views collectively expressed by
    these experts and officials.  App. I shows a full listing of the
    companies, agencies, and organizations we contacted. Page 2
    GAO/RCED-99-142 International Energy Agency B-282384 Missing
    barrels are accounted for by two factors:  (1) limitations in the
    statistics on oil supply, demand, and stocks reported to IEA, such
    as preliminary data that are subject to future revision; and (2)
    actual oil held in stocks but not reported as part of IEA's
    official oil stock statistics. Although highlighted by IEA in
    April 1998, missing barrels are not new, having occurred in 24 of
    the last 26 years.  In 1998, IEA estimated world oil supply at
    75.3 million barrels per day, world oil demand at 73.7 million
    barrels per day, and increases in OECD oil stocks at 0.4 million
    barrels per day.  The remaining 1.2 million barrels per day (or
    438 million barrels for the year) are the estimated missing
    barrels for 1998, and represent about 1.6 percent of the
    approximately 75 million barrels traded in the world oil market
    every day. IEA Uses a Bottom-Up  IEA prepares its historical and
    projected oil market statistics using a Approach to Prepare
    bottom-up approach that relies on statistics for each country.
    These statistics are developed through questionnaires and other
    information Its Historical and                     sources,
    depending on the country. Projected Oil Market Statistics IEA's
    Historical Oil Statistics  In developing its historical oil
    statistics, as illustrated in figure 1, IEA relies on its access
    to data through questionnaires from all OECD countries and
    augments this information with data from oil companies, consulting
    groups, and other sources.  Because IEA does not have the same
    access to data through questionnaires from non-OECD countries, it
    relies on a wide variety of sources for information, according to
    IEA officials. Page 3                                 GAO/RCED-99-
    142 International Energy Agency B-282384 Figure 1:  IEA's
    Framework for Developing Its Historical World Oil Market
    Statistics OECD *Monthly questionnaire *Variety of other sources
    to supplement                              IEA Judgement/
    estimation added Non-OECD *Variety of sources,  such as,
    governments, international organizations, etc. Source:
    Information from IEA. In developing their historical statistics on
    oil supply, IEA officials said that they obtain the data directly
    from the OECD member governments, oil companies, and consulting
    groups.  IEA then checks these detailed country-level data against
    totals for similar, more aggregated data that are reported
    separately through its monthly oil statistics questionnaire.  This
    questionnaire, sent to all 29 OECD countries, asks for official
    information on oil supply (production), demand, and stocks.  To
    complete the statistics on world oil supply, IEA obtains data for
    non-OECD countries through governments, international
    organizations (such as the United Nations and the World Bank), oil
    companies, and the oil industry trade press. IEA officials said
    they use a similar approach in developing their historical
    statistics on world oil demand and stocks.  That is, they use a
    questionnaire to develop information on oil demand and stock
    levels for each OECD country, while they rely on a variety of
    sources to develop the demand data for non-OECD countries.  IEA
    officials said that IEA does not collect statistics on oil stocks
    in the non-OECD countries. IEA's statistics include oil that is in
    "floating storage" (that is, being held in marine tankers used for
    temporary storage) and oil in transit at sea by obtaining
    estimates of oil in these sources from firms that monitor oil
    tanker traffic.  This oil may be from OECD and/or non-OECD
    countries. However, IEA officials said that because the statistics
    on oil in floating Page 4
    GAO/RCED-99-142 International Energy Agency B-282384 storage and
    in transit at sea are estimates, they might not necessarily
    represent the actual amounts of oil in these situations.
    Historical Statistics Are the Best  Many of the oil market
    officials and experts we talked to said that IEA's Available but
    Have Some               historical oil market statistics are the
    best available because the agency's Limitations
    unique direct access to the national governments allows it to
    collect comprehensive data.  They also said IEA's long history and
    familiarity with data from these governments and other entities
    allow it to make better judgments about the reasonableness of the
    data being provided and thus follow up on apparent
    inconsistencies.  IEA officials told us that the statistics from
    the OECD countries are generally of better quality and more
    reliable than those from the non-OECD countries.  Nonetheless, IEA
    officials pointed out certain limitations regarding the historical
    statistics on supply, demand, and stocks for both OECD and non-
    OECD countries. These limitations can introduce errors into the
    data, although the magnitude and direction of these errors are not
    clear. For historical supply statistics, IEA officials said that
    some of the numbers reported to them are preliminary and, as such,
    are subject to revision.  They also stated that they use their
    judgment to estimate and fill in data not available from various
    sources, or reconcile data collected from multiple sources.  In
    addition, they mentioned that significant time lags exist in some
    of the reported data.  For example, data reported to IEA for its
    December 1998 issue of the Oil Market Report could have lags of up
    to 12 months for some non-OECD countries.  That is, some producing
    countries would report data as of December 1997.  In these cases,
    IEA officials said that they use estimated statistics to fill in
    the months of 1998, until data become available later from the
    usual sources.7  Such estimates, to the extent that they remain
    estimates, may overstate or understate oil supply for the
    applicable months. In the case of historical demand statistics,
    IEA officials told us that they also use judgments and/or
    estimations to fill in missing data and reconcile data collected
    from multiple sources.  In addition, some of the non-OECD
    countries report their demand data in quarterly and annual
    averages.  In these cases, IEA breaks the data into monthly
    averages using its judgment and analysis of prior years' monthly
    patterns or patterns in neighboring 7 This is different from
    missing data.  While lagged data may later be reported to IEA,
    allowing it to replace the estimated ones in a future issue of the
    report, missing data are not likely to become available from the
    sources that IEA relies on. Page 5
    GAO/RCED-99-142 International Energy Agency B-282384 countries,
    which may not necessarily represent the actual monthly numbers.
    The officials also pointed out that monthly oil demand data are
    not available for the Former Soviet Union and China, two countries
    that account for about one-third of the non-OECD oil demand.  IEA
    officials said that they use "apparent demand," defined as oil
    production minus net oil exports, as a surrogate for these two
    countries' demand.  However, such apparent demand estimates are
    only approximations because, as IEA officials pointed out to us,
    export data from non-OECD countries, including China and the
    Former Soviet Union, are not reliable. For the statistics on oil
    stocks, IEA officials noted that they do not collect data for non-
    OECD countries and that the statistics on stocks of OECD countries
    include only primary stocks, such as those held in refineries, oil
    terminals, and pipelines.  These OECD oil stocks do not account
    for oil held in relatively small storage facilities (known as
    independent storage) in various OECD locations.  According to IEA,
    these independent storage stocks can add up to a large quantity of
    oil.  Finally, reported OECD stock data are often preliminary and
    subject to revision. IEA's Projected Oil Statistics  IEA prepares
    its oil supply and demand projections on the basis of its own Are
    Based on Its Own                analysis and judgments; IEA
    officials do not consider them as forecasts.8 Analysis and
    Judgments              The supply projections are based on IEA's
    analysis of 400 individual oil fields and areas in the 77 oil-
    producing countries.  Members of the Organization of Petroleum
    Exporting Countries (OPEC) are not included in this projection
    because IEA would, in effect, be indicating the potential
    direction of world oil price by predicting OPEC supply.  (See
    below for how IEA treats OPEC supply.)  According to IEA
    officials, to derive the supply projections, their analysis
    includes judgments about such factors as the rate at which oil
    production from each field will increase or decline, the length of
    time for a field's production to peak and stabilize, field
    maintenance, and start-up dates for new fields.  In developing its
    supply projections, IEA's analysis also considers the operating
    capacity of oil exploration and production support and service
    industries such as drillers and equipment and service contractors.
    In addition, IEA considers other oil production-related
    information obtained from oil field operators, producer-country
    governments, consultancies, and the oil industry trade 8 According
    to IEA, a forecast would entail predicting OPEC supply and crude
    oil and petroleum product prices, and their effects on demand and
    non-OPEC supply.  OPEC was created in 1960; its current members
    include Algeria, Indonesia, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria,
    Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Venezuela. Page
    6                                            GAO/RCED-99-142
    International Energy Agency B-282384 press.  IEA officials told us
    that they assume that the price of oil remains constant throughout
    the projection period because IEA has a policy of not forecasting
    the price of oil.  Furthermore, the officials said that they do
    not make adjustments for contingent factors, such as potential
    weather-related events or other random disruptions, like equipment
    failures and disruptions in oilfields located in politically
    unstable areas. To prepare its projected statistics of world oil
    demand, IEA officials told us that they consider historical data
    on oil demand and economic growth rates for each country in the
    world as a backdrop for their judgments and assumptions.  They
    then consider, for each country, such factors as the changes in
    the share of each fuel used relative to the aggregate energy used
    as well as changes in the structure of the economy.  As in the
    case of supply, the demand projections assume normal weather
    conditions and constant oil price throughout the projection
    period. In its analyses, IEA's projected world oil demand exceeds
    the projected supply from the 77 non-OPEC countries.  IEA assumes
    that OPEC supply and stock change will make up the difference.
    Missing Barrels Are             IEA and most of the oil industry
    officials and market experts we contacted Due to Limitations in
    told us that the missing barrels in IEA's oil market statistics
    are due to both limitations in the historical oil market data and
    the data on actual oil held Statistics and                  in
    stocks that are not part of the statistics on oil stocks covered
    by IEA. Unreported Oil Stocks Furthermore, they could not quantify
    how much of the missing barrels are due to statistical limitations
    and how much are the result of physical oil storage in unreported
    stocks.  Moreover, missing barrels are not a new condition, and
    the amount and direction of the missing barrels have fluctuated
    over time.  As discussed earlier, although the historical oil
    statistics published by IEA are considered by oil market experts
    to be the best available, they have limitations that can introduce
    errors. Such limitations suggest that, at any point in time, the
    historical oil supply and demand as well as the stock data
    reported by IEA could be overstated or understated by an unknown
    magnitude.  In fact, IEA officials told us that they continuously
    revise their historical statistics over time, as new information
    becomes available.  This means that the reported amount of missing
    barrels at any point in time could later change and become smaller
    or larger, positive or negative. Page 7
    GAO/RCED-99-142 International Energy Agency B-282384 IEA and most
    oil industry and market officials we contacted told us that part
    of the missing barrels in 1998 could be oil physically held in
    stocks that are not counted by IEA statistics.  IEA's statistics
    on oil stocks do not account for non-OECD stocks.  IEA and several
    oil market experts that we contacted told us that some of the
    missing barrels could be in storage tanks located in non-OECD
    countries.  They also said that some of the oil could be in some
    independent storage tanks in OECD countries that are not reported
    in the official statistics on oil stocks submitted to IEA, or in
    the previously mentioned "floating storage" and oil in transit at
    sea.  According to several experts we talked to, oil might be
    stored because the price of oil during 1998 was, more often than
    not, higher in the future months than in the near-term months.
    This provided an incentive for increased oil storage for future
    sale. Number of Barrels Missing     According to the historical
    statistics in the February 1999 issue of IEA's Oil in 1998
    Market Report, an average of 1.2 million barrels per day , or a
    total of 438 million barrels of oil for the year, were regarded as
    missing in 1998. Table 1 shows IEA's statistics on world oil
    supply, demand, OECD oil stock change, and floating storage/oil in
    transit in 1998.  For example, average world oil supply for 1998
    was 75.3 million barrels per day, while world oil demand was 73.7
    million barrels per day.  Thus, world supply exceeded world demand
    by 1.6 million barrels per day.  This implies that world oil stock
    should have increased by that much.  However, the stock data
    reported to IEA by OECD countries showed that stocks increased by
    only 0.4 million barrels per day, and the amount of oil in
    floating storage/in transit did not change.  Therefore, an average
    1.2 million barrels of oil per day were unaccounted for, or
    missing, in 1998. Page 8                                GAO/RCED-
    99-142 International Energy Agency B-282384 Table 1:  Missing
    Barrels in 1998 (Millions of barrels per day) 1st Quarter 98
    2nd Quarter 98            3rd Quarter 98            4th Quarter 98
    Average 98 Supply                                    76.5
    75.6                      74.1                     74.9
    75.3 Demand                                    74.5
    72.1                      73.2                     74.8
    73.7 Supply exceeds demand
    1.9                        3.4                       0.9
    0.1                   1.6 OECD Oil Stock change
    -0.1                        1.7                       0.4
    -0.5                   0.4 Floating Storage/Oil in Transit
    0.2                         0.1                       0.0
    -0.1                   0.0 Missing barrels
    1.9                        1.7                       0.5
    0.6                   1.2 Note:  Numbers may not total because of
    rounding. Source: IEA data from table 1, World Oil Supply and
    Demand, Oil Market Report, Feb. 9, 1999. As the table shows, a
    larger portion of the missing barrels in 1998 occurred during the
    first half of the year, with about 1.9 million barrels per day in
    the first quarter and 1.7 million barrels per day in the second
    quarter.  These levels decreased considerably by the third and
    fourth quarters, with missing barrels dropping to 0.5 million
    barrels per day and 0.6 million barrels per day, respectively. An
    average of 1.2 million barrels per day (or 438 million barrels of
    oil for the year) that were missing in 1998 represent about 1.6
    percent of the 75 million barrels per day traded in the world oil
    market.9  Thus, about a 0.8 percent error in the historical
    statistics for both oil supply and demand could account for the
    entire year's missing barrels. Missing Barrels Are Not
    Differences between IEA's historical world oil supply and demand
    New                                          statistics, which are
    not reflected in changes in oil stocks, are not new and have been
    larger and smaller in the past. Using IEA's data from 1973 to
    1998, figure 2 shows missing barrels have occurred in 24 of the
    last 26 years, in varying magnitudes and directions.  For example,
    the number of missing barrels was higher than the 1998 level in
    1973, 1974, and 1976, averaging about 1.6 million barrels per day
    in 1974 and 1.3 million barrels per day each in 1973 and 1976.  On
    the other hand, the number was lower 9 The 75 million barrels per
    day of oil is the average of the supply and demand for 1998. Page
    9                                            GAO/RCED-99-142
    International Energy Agency B-282384 for all the other years
    shown, with no missing barrels in 1978 and 1984. Similarly, 14 of
    the 26 years had positive missing barrels, while 10 other years
    had negative missing barrels.  Positive missing barrels implies
    that oil supply exceeded demand but was not reflected in stock
    increases, while negative missing barrels implies that oil demand
    exceeded supply but was not reflected in the amount of oil drawn
    from stocks. Figure 2:  Missing Barrels, 1973-98 Source: IEA.
    Agency Comments and  We provided a draft of this report to IEA for
    review and comment.  We Our Evaluation                  discussed
    the report with IEA officials, including the Head, Oil Industry
    and Markets Division, which prepares the Oil Market Report, and
    the Head, Statistics Division.  IEA agreed with the report and
    provided clarifying comments that we incorporated, where
    appropriate. Page 10                                GAO/RCED-99-
    142 International Energy Agency B-282384 Scope and      To
    determine how IEA prepares its statistics on world oil supply,
    demand, Methodology    and stocks, we interviewed IEA officials
    and reviewed relevant documents from the agency.  We also
    interviewed other oil industry and market officials to gain an
    understanding of their familiarity with how IEA prepares its world
    oil market statistics.  Appendix I lists all the companies,
    agencies, and organizations we contacted. To determine what
    accounted for the missing barrels in IEA's world oil market
    statistics in 1998, we interviewed IEA and other oil industry and
    market officials.  We also reviewed relevant documents from IEA
    and other sources and analyzed oil market statistics from IEA and
    others. We conducted our review from November 1998 through April
    1999 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing
    standards. As arranged with your office, unless you publicly
    announce its contents earlier, we plan no further distribution of
    this report until 30 days after the date of this letter.  At that
    time, we will send copies to Senator Frank Murkowski, Chairman,
    and Senator Jeff Bingaman, Ranking Minority Member, Senate
    Committee on Energy and Natural Resources; Senator Don Nickles,
    Chairman, and Senator Bob Graham Ranking Minority Member,
    Subcommittee on Energy Research, Development, Project, and
    Regulation, Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources;
    Representative Joe Barton, Chairman, and Representative Ralph M.
    Hall, Ranking Minority Member,  Subcommittee on Energy and Power,
    House Committee on Commerce; and Representative Ken Calvert,
    Chairman, and Representative Jerry F. Costello, Ranking Minority
    Member, Subcommittee on Energy and Environment, House Committee on
    Science.  We will also send a copy of this report to Mr. Robert
    Priddle, Executive Director of the International Energy Agency.
    We will also make copies available to others on request. Page 11
    GAO/RCED-99-142 International Energy Agency B-282384 Please call
    me at (202) 512-3841 if you have any questions about this report.
    Major contributors to this report were Daniel Haas, Godwin Agbara,
    and Michael Sagalow. Sincerely yours, Susan D. Kladiva Associate
    Director, Energy, Resources, and Science Issues Page 12
    GAO/RCED-99-142 International Energy Agency Page 13    GAO/RCED-
    99-142 International Energy Agency Appendix I Companies, Agencies,
    and Organizations Contacted by GAO
    Appendix I Integrated Oil              British Petroleum/Amoco
    Companies                   Mobil Oil Corporation Texaco Inc.
    Federal and                 U.S. Department of Energy
    International Agencies International Energy Agency
    Consultants/Industry        BT Alex Brown Incorporated Analysts
    Center for Global Energy Studies Merrill Lynch & Company PIRA
    Energy Group Smith Barney, Inc. Simmons and Company International
    Associations                American Petroleum Institute
    Independent Petroleum Association of America Oil Industry Trade
    Energy Intelligence Group Press (141295)        Letter      Page
    14                             GAO/RCED-99-142 International
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