Global Warming: Difficulties Assessing Countries' Progress Stabilizing
Emissions of Greenhouse Gases (Letter Report, 09/04/96, GAO/RCED-96-188).

Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO evaluated the United States and
other countries' progress in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990
levels by year 2000.

GAO found that: (1) incomplete, unreliable, and inconsistent data
prevent a complete assessment of these countries' efforts to limit
greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000; (2) the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change has compiled data emissions from
29 countries since February 1996; (3) all 29 countries reported 1990
data on carbon dioxide, 28 countries reported similar data for methane
and nitrous oxide, and 8 countries did not provide projections to 2000
for at least one of the gases; (4) the level of uncertainty in emissions
data is high since some countries adjusted their 1990 inventory levels
to develop more reasonable projections for year 2000; (5) the
Convention's reporting guidelines do not specify whether emissions'
projections should be reported as gross emissions or net emissions; (6)
this lack of detail affects the completeness and comparability of
emissions inventories; (7) Germany and the United Kingdom are the only
major developed countries that are likely to return to 1990 emissions
levels by 2000; (8) energy use is the major factor affecting Annex I
countries' ability to meet 1990 greenhouse levels by 2000; (9) efforts
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the United States are hampered by
changes in key economic variables; and (10) the adoption of revised
reporting guidelines will help to ensure that complete and reliable
emissions data are reported.

--------------------------- Indexing Terms -----------------------------

 REPORTNUM:  RCED-96-188
     TITLE:  Global Warming: Difficulties Assessing Countries' Progress 
             Stabilizing Emissions of Greenhouse Gases
      DATE:  09/04/96
   SUBJECT:  Climate statistics
             Atmospheric research
             Air pollution control
             Data integrity
             International cooperation
             Reporting requirements
             Environmental monitoring
             Projections
             Energy consumption
             Energy efficiency
IDENTIFIER:  Canada
             Germany
             Italy
             Japan
             United Kingdom
             EPA Climate Change Action Plan
             
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Cover
================================================================ COVER


Report to the Ranking Minority Member, Committee on Commerce, House
of Representatives

September 1996

GLOBAL WARMING - DIFFICULTIES
ASSESSING COUNTRIES' PROGRESS
STABILIZING EMISSIONS OF
GREENHOUSE GASES

GAO/RCED-96-188

Global Warming

(160316)


Abbreviations
=============================================================== ABBREV

  AEO - Annual Energy Outlook
  CCAP - Climate Change Action Plan
  GAO - General Accounting Office
  GDP - gross domestic product
  IEA - International Energy Agency
  IPCC - International Panel on Climate Change
  MMTCE - million metric tons of carbon equivalent
  OECD - Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development

Letter
=============================================================== LETTER


B-272113

September 4, 1996

The Honorable John D.  Dingell
Ranking Minority Member
Committee on Commerce
House of Representatives

Dear Mr.  Dingell: 

Industry, transportation, agriculture, and other human activities are
emitting increasing amounts of carbon dioxide and other heat-trapping
"greenhouse gases" into the earth's atmosphere.  According to the
International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), a group established to
assess the scientific and technical information on climate change,
climate models project an increase in the earth's average surface
temperature of between about 2 and 6 degrees Fahrenheit by 2100; the
projection is based on estimated increases in greenhouse gas
emissions and aerosols.\1 As we stated in our report and subsequent
testimony on climate change models, some uncertainty exists about the
timing, magnitude, and distribution of global warming.\2

Nevertheless, climate changes could have such important consequences
as changes in weather patterns, including shifts in precipitation
patterns that could lead to flooding; changes in crop yields; and
changes in ecosystems. 

To address the potential consequences of climate change, the United
States, other developed countries, the former Soviet Union, and other
Eastern European states--collectively known as the countries of Annex
I to the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(Convention)--agreed to aim to return their emissions of greenhouse
gases to 1990 levels by 2000.  Negotiations are under way to identify
appropriate actions under the agreement after 2000, including
possible specific emissions targets for these Annex I countries.  The
negotiations are scheduled to conclude in 1997.  Because of your
concerns about the possible implications of such negotiations, you
asked that we evaluate (1) the progress of the United States and
other Annex I countries toward meeting the goal of reducing
greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000 and (2) the major
factors that affect the countries' ability to reach that goal.  As
agreed with your office, in addition to the United States, we
included in our review Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, and the United
Kingdom--the six developed countries that are the largest emitters of
carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas considered to be the largest
single contributor to human-induced climate change. 


--------------------
\1 Aerosols are airborne particles that tend to cool the atmosphere,
thereby offsetting some of the projected temperature increase. 

\2 Global Warming:  Limitations of General Circulation Models and
Costs of Modeling Efforts (GAO/RCED-95-164, July 13, 1995) and Global
Warming:  Limitations of General Circulation Models
(GAO/T-RCED-96-43, Nov.  16, 1995). 


   RESULTS IN BRIEF
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :1

The Annex I countries' progress in meeting the Convention's goal to
reduce greenhouse gas emissions cannot be fully assessed because the
emissions data are incomplete, unreliable, and inconsistent.  For
example, many of the national plans of Annex I countries do not
include the 1990 inventory levels or projections to 2000 for all
greenhouse gases.  Although the emissions data for carbon dioxide are
considered to have a high level of certainty, the data for other
greenhouse gases are much less reliable.  For example, the range of
uncertainty\3 for Canada's reported emissions data on methane was
plus or minus 30 percent at a 90-percent confidence level\4 and for
nitrous oxide emissions, plus or minus 40 percent at an 85-percent
confidence level.  Such problems limit the completeness and
comparability of the inventories and projections and therefore the
ability to assess progress against the Convention's goal.  The
problems generally result from a lack of specific reporting
requirements by the Convention and from limitations in the ability to
quantify certain greenhouse gas emissions. 

While these problems limit the efforts to fully assess the countries'
progress, recent estimates of the countries' emissions of carbon
dioxide by the Energy Information Administration and the
International Energy Agency indicate that Germany and the United
Kingdom are the only major developed countries likely to meet the
Convention's goal.  Canada, Italy, Japan, and the United States are
unlikely to meet the goal.  In our discussions with environmental
officials from these countries and with climate change experts, we
found that factors such as economic growth, population growth, fuel
prices, and energy efficiency affect trends in energy use, thereby
influencing trends in greenhouse gas emissions.  For example,
higher-than-expected economic and population growth and lower fuel
prices resulting in higher energy use will probably prevent the
United States and Canada from reaching the goal. 


--------------------
\3 Uncertainty represents the degree to which the actual emissions
data could differ from those that are reported. 

\4 Confidence levels are expressed as percentages of the likelihood
that actual emissions will fall within a given range of the reported
levels. 


   BACKGROUND
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :2

According to a 1995 assessment by the IPCC, climate models project
that increasing atmospheric concentrations of the primary greenhouse
gases--carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide--and aerosols will
raise the average global surface temperature between 1.8 and 6.3
degrees Fahrenheit by 2100.  The IPCC estimates that such a
temperature increase could lead to many potential impacts, including
flooding, droughts, changes in crop yields, and changes in
ecosystems. 

In an effort to address concerns about the possibility of global
climate change, the United States and other countries signed the
United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change at the Rio
Earth Summit in May 1992.  As of June 1996, 159 countries had
ratified the Convention.  The Convention's ultimate objective is to
stabilize the concentrations of human-induced greenhouse gases in the
atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous interference with
the climate system.\5

To accomplish this objective, the Convention directs the Annex I
parties to adopt policies and measures to limit greenhouse gases and
to protect and enhance the greenhouse gas sinks and reservoirs that
absorb and store carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.\6 The Convention
also directs the Annex I parties to submit plans to the Conference of
the Parties with detailed information on the policies and measures
that will help return net greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by
2000.  (See app.  I for more details on the Convention and a list of
Annex I countries.) As of May 1996, 33 of the 36 countries listed
under Annex I had ratified the Convention.\7

At the first session of the Conference of the Parties to the
Convention held in April 1995, the countries acknowledged that the
existing commitments under the Convention are not adequate to meet
the overall objective of stabilizing greenhouse gas concentrations. 
This determination was formally designated by the Conference of the
Parties as the Berlin Mandate.  To address the inadequacies, the
parties agreed to begin a process to define actions in the post-2000
period, including strengthening the commitments of the parties
included in Annex I by elaborating policies and measures, as well as
by setting quantified objectives for limiting and reducing emissions. 
The Department of State's Under Secretary for Global Affairs recently
announced to the Conference of the Parties that the United States
supports the adoption of binding emissions targets beyond 2000.  The
process of determining actions beyond 2000, designed to include in
its early stages an analysis and assessment phase, is scheduled for
completion before the third Conference of the Parties, currently set
for late 1997. 

Carbon dioxide is considered the major contributor to global warming. 
Developed countries--as identified by their membership in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development
(OECD)--accounted for about half of the world's energy-related carbon
dioxide emissions in 1990.  The United States was responsible for
about 22 percent of the total carbon dioxide emissions.  Developing
countries are projected to account for an increasing share of
worldwide carbon dioxide emissions in the future as a result of their
increasing growth in energy demand.  For example, the Energy
Information Administration estimates that China's share of carbon
dioxide emissions will almost double from about 10 percent in 1990 to
about 19 percent in 2015.  Therefore, even if the developed countries
are able to stabilize carbon dioxide emissions, worldwide emissions
are likely to increase because of the expected large growth in
developing countries. 


--------------------
\5 The Convention excludes greenhouse gases controlled by the 1987
Montreal Protocol on Substances That Deplete the Ozone Layer and its
subsequent amendments. 

\6 A sink is any process, activity, or mechanism that removes
greenhouse gases from the atmosphere.  A reservoir is a component of
the climate system where greenhouse gases are stored. 

\7 The European Economic Community was also included as an Annex I
party and has ratified the Convention. 


   COUNTRIES' PROGRESS TOWARD
   MEETING THE CONVENTION'S GOAL
   CANNOT BE FULLY ASSESSED
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :3

The incomplete, unreliable, and inconsistent data on emissions
prevent a complete assessment of Annex I countries' efforts to limit
greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000.  These problems
occurred for several reasons, including a lack of specific reporting
requirements by the Convention. 


      DATA ON GREENHOUSE GASES IN
      NATIONAL PLANS ARE
      INCOMPLETE, UNRELIABLE, AND
      INCONSISTENT
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :3.1

As of February 1996, the Convention had compiled data from the
national plans of 29 Annex I countries.  These countries accounted
for 60 percent of the estimated global carbon dioxide emissions from
fossil fuel combustion in 1990.  All 29 countries reported 1990 data
on carbon dioxide, and 28 of the 29 reported similar data on methane
and nitrous oxide.  However, eight countries did not provide
projections to 2000 for at least one of those gases.  For example,
Spain did not include projections of either methane or nitrous oxide
in its plan.  Additionally, only eight countries provided projections
of the other greenhouse gases also covered under the Convention, such
as hydrofluorocarbons.  While emissions for such gases are now small,
they are projected to increase in the future. 

Also, some reported data lack precision.  Specifically, although
countries provided emissions data for methane and nitrous oxide, the
level of certainty in such data is low.  For example, the uncertainty
range for reported methane emissions in Canada's national plan is
plus or minus 30 percent at a 90-percent confidence level; the range
is plus or minus 40 percent for nitrous oxide at an 85-percent
confidence level.  In contrast, the uncertainty level for Canada's
carbon dioxide emissions was only plus or minus 4 percent at a
95-percent confidence level.  Reliability in measuring the emissions
data for methane and nitrous oxide is not as high as for carbon
dioxide.  Because these gases come from many sources and are
nontoxic, little effort has been given to measuring their emissions. 

Additionally, the countries' emissions data were not always
consistent.  For example, some Annex I countries adjusted their 1990
inventory levels in order to develop what they believed to be a more
reasonable starting point for projections to 2000.  As a result, a
different picture emerges of a country's ability to meet the goal,
depending on whether the projections are compared to actual or
adjusted 1990 levels.  To illustrate, Denmark adjusted its 1990
inventory level upward to show what emissions would have been if
imported hydroelectric power had been generated domestically with
fossil fuels.  Consequently, Denmark's carbon dioxide projections
exceed the actual 1990 levels; but when the adjusted level for 1990
is used, the projections for 2000 are below the 1990 level. 


      PROBLEMS WITH GREENHOUSE GAS
      DATA HAVE TWO MAJOR CAUSES
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :3.2

Two major factors contributed to problems in the Annex I countries'
reporting of emissions data.  First, the parties to the Convention
did not formally adopt reporting guidelines until April 1995--after
most countries had submitted their national plans--and the guidelines
adopted in 1995 were not specific in all cases.  For example, the
guidelines did not specify whether emissions' projections were to be
reported on the basis of gross emissions or net emissions, which
account for the carbon dioxide removed from the atmosphere by forests
and other greenhouse gas sinks.  Only 13 of 29 Annex I countries
separately reported projections of carbon dioxide sinks. 

The parties to the Convention have recognized shortcomings in the
guidance.  In its comments on a draft of this report, the Department
of State noted that the parties had adopted revised reporting
guidelines at their Second Conference in July 1996.  These revised
guidelines will be used for the second round of national plans due to
be submitted in April 1997.  The Department of State has stated that
these national plans will be significantly improved because of the
revised guidelines.  Furthermore, it expects that the Conference of
the Parties will continue to revise and improve the guidelines. 

The other major factor contributing to problems with the data on
greenhouse gas emissions is that, as previously noted, the countries
have not yet been able to quantify with certainty the emissions of
methane and nitrous oxide because of the limited reporting data. 


   ECONOMIC FACTORS MAKE MOST
   ANNEX I COUNTRIES UNLIKELY TO
   MEET THE CONVENTION'S GOAL
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :4

Although the currently available emissions data prevent a complete
assessment of countries' progress in meeting the Convention's goal,
projections by energy forecasting agencies of carbon dioxide
emissions from fossil fuel use--which is the largest single category
of greenhouse gas emissions--indicate that few Annex I countries will
likely be able to return emissions to 1990 levels by 2000.  Of the
major developed countries, only Germany and the United Kingdom appear
likely to reduce carbon emissions to 1990 levels by the year 2000. 
Other major developed countries--including Canada, Italy, Japan, and
the United States--will probably not reach the goal.  A few other
Annex I countries in eastern Europe, such as the Czech Republic, may
be able to meet the Convention's goal. 

The projections by the Annex I countries themselves indicate that
only 7 of the 24 countries that provided point estimates of carbon
dioxide emissions in 2000 project that they can hold emissions near
or below 1990 levels.  (See table 1.) For the remaining countries,
the increases over the 1990 inventory levels ranged from 1.7 percent
to 28.8 percent. 



                                Table 1
                
                   Reported Emissions Data for Carbon
                                Dioxide

                        (Emissions in gigagrams)

                                                 Year 2000
                                          1990  projection     Percent
Country                                 levels           s      change
----------------------------------  ----------  ----------  ----------
Australia                              288,965     332,799        15.1
Austria                                 59,200      65,800        11.1
Canada                                 457,441     510,000        11.5
Czech Republic                         165,792     135,536       -18.2
Denmark                                 52,100      53,753         3.2
Finland                                 53,900      70,200        30.5
France                                 366,536     399,000         8.8
Germany                              1,014,155     917,000        -9.6
Greece                                  82,100      94,500        15.1
Hungary                                 71,653      68,741        -4.1
Ireland                                 30,719      36,988        20.4
Italy                                  428,941     482,440        12.5
Japan                                1,173,360   1,200,000         2.3
Latvia                                  22,976      16,956       -26.2
Netherlands                            167,600     167,600         0.0
New Zealand                             25,530      29,550        15.7
Norway                                  35,533      39,500        11.2
Portugal                                42,148      54,274        28.8
Slovak Republic                         58,278      48,639       -16.5
Spain                                  248,005     276,523        11.4
Sweden                                  61,256      63,800         4.2
Switzerland                             43,600      43,800         0.5
United Kingdom                         577,012     586,720         1.7
United States                        4,957,022   5,163,136         4.2
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Note:  Belgium, Poland, and the Russian Federation also provided
estimates of ranges of projections for carbon dioxide. 

Sources:  National Communications from Parties Included in Annex I to
the Convention, Tables of inventories of anthropogenic emissions and
removals in 1990 and projected anthropogenic emissions in 2000,
February 1996; and Projections for Greenhouse Gases, Supplementary
Report of April 1996 to the First Report of the Government of the
Federal Republic of Germany pursuant to the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change. 

The projections from other organizations also indicate that few
countries will be able to stabilize carbon dioxide emissions.\8 For
example, the Energy Information Administration's May 1996
International Energy Outlook forecasts that carbon dioxide emissions
from energy consumption will increase for most of the Annex I
countries from 1990 to 2000.  Specifically, the agency projects that
carbon dioxide emissions will increase 11 percent in the United
States, 21 percent in Japan, 18 percent in Canada, and 6 percent in
OECD Europe.  The International Energy Agency (IEA) also projects
increases in carbon dioxide emissions between 1990 and 2000 for Annex
I countries.  In its 1994 Review of Energy Policies of IEA Countries,
published in July 1995, this agency forecasts increases in
energy-related carbon dioxide of 10 percent for the United States, 13
percent for Canada, and 8 percent for Europe. 


--------------------
\8 Estimates by these other organizations do not take into account
factors that could offset carbon dioxide emissions, such as the
enhancement of carbon sinks. 


      FACTORS AFFECTING ENERGY USE
      ALSO AFFECT PROGRESS TOWARD
      THE GOAL
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :4.1

On the basis of our review of six developed countries--Canada,
Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States--we
found that energy use is the major factor affecting the ability of
those countries to meet the goal of returning greenhouse gas
emissions to 1990 levels by 2000.  Therefore, the major factors that
affect trends in energy use--such as growth in gross domestic product
(GDP), population growth, energy prices, and energy efficiency--also
affect trends in greenhouse gas emissions.  The ability to shift from
coal, the burning of which produces a high level of greenhouse gases,
to other fuels is also a major factor.  Table 2 provides information
on these factors for the six countries we reviewed.  (App.  II
provides additional information on the goals of the six countries in
connection with climate change and the status of the additional
actions that those countries are considering to help reach the
Convention's goal.)



                                         Table 2
                         
                          Factors Affecting Efforts to Reach the
                                    Convention's Goal

                                                  OECD's estimate
                                OECD's estimate   of annual
                                of annual GDP     population
              Likely to         growth, 1990-     growth, 1990-     Key factors affecting
Country       achieve goal?     2000 (percent)    2000 (percent)    achievement of goal
------------  ----------------  ----------------  ----------------  ---------------------
Canada        No                2.3               1.7               High rate of energy
                                                                    use, low energy
                                                                    prices, and a fast
                                                                    growing population

Germany       Yes               Not available     -0.1              Negative economic
                                                                    growth and phaseout
                                                                    of coal in former
                                                                    East Germany

Italy         No                1.6               0.1               High rate of energy
                                                                    efficiency makes
                                                                    additional gains
                                                                    difficult

Japan         No                2.1               0.3               Difficult to obtain
                                                                    additional energy
                                                                    efficiencies and
                                                                    difficulties in
                                                                    siting nuclear power
                                                                    plants designed to
                                                                    replace coal-powered
                                                                    facilities

United        Yes               2.7               0.3               Shift from coal and
Kingdom                                                             oil to natural gas
                                                                    due to privatization
                                                                    of utilities

United        No                2.5               0.9               Higher-than-expected
States                                                              economic growth, low
                                                                    energy prices, and
                                                                    funding reductions

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources:  GAO's analysis and OECD's GDP and population growth from
Measuring Up to the Year 2000 Aim of the Framework Convention on
Climate Change, The EOP Group, Inc., November 1995. 


      UNITED STATES IS NOT LIKELY
      TO MEET GOAL, LARGELY
      BECAUSE OF ECONOMIC FACTORS
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :4.2

In response to the Convention's goal on greenhouse gases, the United
States issued its Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) in October 1993. 
The plan includes 44 largely voluntary initiatives designed to return
net emissions of the major greenhouse gases--carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxides, and hydrofluorocarbons--to 1990 levels by 2000.  The
CCAP aimed to cut the net projected growth of 7 percent in the major
greenhouse gas emissions between 1990 and 2000 and to achieve
stabilization at the 1990 level of 1,462 million metric tons of
carbon equivalent (MMTCE).  Without the plan's initiatives, emissions
were projected to grow to 1,568 MMTCE.  The CCAP laid the foundation
for the U.S.  national plan submitted to the Convention in September
1994. 

The United States estimates that it will fall short of its target. 
Efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in the United States have
been hampered by changes in forecasts of key economic variables, such
as higher-than-projected economic growth and lower-than-expected
energy prices, that differ from the assumptions made in the CCAP. 
The changes in these economic indicators tend to increase energy use
and therefore also increase greenhouse gas emissions.  For example,
the world oil price per barrel in 2000 was estimated to be $24.04
(1994 dollars) in the CCAP, but the Energy Information
Administration's 1996 Annual Energy Outlook--which contains the
executive branch's latest forecasts--now estimates that the price
will be $19.27 per barrel (1994 dollars).  Also, annual population
growth is now projected to be higher than expected when the CCAP was
formulated--about 1.0 percent per year as compared with the 0.7
percent projected in 1993.  Population growth tends to increase
energy use and consequently greenhouse gas emissions.  (App.  III
compares in more detail the changes in key economic factors and fuel
prices affecting the U.S.  efforts.)

Officials at the Department of Energy and the Environmental
Protection Agency--which are responsible for implementing the bulk of
the CCAP actions--noted that the reductions in the funding for the
plan also have a substantial negative effect on the United States'
ability to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 2000 by limiting the
agencies' ability to implement voluntary initiatives in the plan. 
For example, in fiscal year 1996, only about one-half of the
requested funds were appropriated.  Table 3 provides annual budget
requests and appropriations for fiscal years 1995 through 1997. 
Lower estimated prices will, in general, also make the implementation
of voluntary initiatives less likely.  According to an official with
the Council on Environmental Quality, legislation has also precluded
the implementation of the few nonvoluntary actions in the plan, such
as requiring that tires be labeled for fuel economy. 

The Council on Environmental Quality, the Department of Energy, the
Department of State, and the Environmental Protection Agency are
currently revising the CCAP.  A new plan is scheduled to be issued in
the fall of 1996. 



                                         Table 3
                         
                          Budget Requests and Appropriations for
                                           CCAP

                                  (Dollars in millions)

                  Fiscal year     Fiscal year   Fiscal year     Fiscal year   Fiscal year
                  1995 budget            1995   1996 budget            1996   1997 budget
Agency                request   appropriation       request   appropriation       request
---------------  ------------  --------------  ------------  --------------  ------------
Department of            $208            $101          $185             $85          $144
 Energy
Environmental             123             102           138              83           142
 Protection
 Agency
Others                     13               9            13               6            19
=========================================================================================
Total                    $344            $212          $336            $174          $305
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source:  Office of Management and Budget. 


      CANADA, JAPAN, AND ITALY
      ALSO LIKELY TO MISS GOAL DUE
      TO ECONOMIC FACTORS
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :4.3

Canada's national plan relies primarily on a set of voluntary
measures aimed at increasing energy efficiency and conservation and
encouraging a switch to less carbon dioxide-intensive energy sources. 
Because of Canada's high energy-intensity, most of its human-induced
greenhouse gas emissions are generated by the demand for energy to
heat and light homes, operate industries, and other uses.  Factors
such as low population density, large distances between urban areas,
and a cold climate create unique circumstances that make Canada a
highly energy-intensive country.  A recent estimate indicates that
Canada will likely miss the Convention goal by a significant
amount--carbon dioxide emissions are estimated to increase by 18
percent by the Energy Information Administration.  The country's high
rate of energy intensity, low energy prices, and fast-growing
population, among other factors, have contributed to the gap. 

Japan is also likely to miss the Convention's goal.  Japan's Action
Report on Climate Change, issued in 1994, estimated that total carbon
dioxide emissions in 2000 would exceed their 1990 levels.  Current
projections by the Energy Information Administration indicate that
carbon dioxide emissions in Japan may increase by 21 percent.  Over
the last 20 years, Japan has consistently consumed one of the lowest
percentages of energy per dollar of economic output for developed
countries because of energy efficiency programs and initiatives. 
Therefore, achieving additional greenhouse gas reductions is
difficult.  As a result, even low levels of growth in the economy and
population increase energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. 
Additionally, Japan had planned to build several additional nuclear
power plants that would emit fewer greenhouse gases than the
coal-powered facilities they would replace.  However, the country has
encountered difficulties in siting and building those plants. 

Italy also is low in energy-intensity as compared to other major
developed countries.  According to a State Department official, Italy
is more energy efficient than other developed countries because of
high energy prices and regulations limiting energy use.  Therefore,
additional energy savings and greenhouse gas reductions may be
difficult to achieve, although Italy is forecast to experience a
relatively low rate of economic growth.  Italy's national plan
discusses additional measures to further reduce carbon dioxide
emissions, but their impact may be minimal.  In its national plan,
Italy projects that its carbon dioxide emissions in 2000 will exceed
1990 emissions by about 12.5 percent without additional measures. 


      GERMANY AND UNITED KINGDOM
      ARE LIKELY TO MEET GOAL
      LARGELY AS A RESULT OF
      UNIQUE FACTORS
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :4.4

Germany and the United Kingdom, the only two major developed
countries positioned to meet the Convention's goal, are also subject
to economic factors that can cause energy use to increase.  However,
as the result of unique circumstances set in motion before the
Convention's goal was established, both Germany and the United
Kingdom are likely to meet the goal. 

According to an official in Germany's Ministry of the Environment,
the principal reason that Germany is expected to exceed the
Convention's goal is the reunification of the former East Germany
with West Germany in 1990.  The depressed economic conditions in East
Germany, including low productivity levels and high unemployment, and
the shift from inefficient coal technology to natural gas are helping
to reduce greenhouse gas emissions significantly.  For instance,
carbon dioxide emissions in the former East Germany have already
decreased by about 43 percent from 1990 to 1994.  In contrast, during
the same period, carbon dioxide emissions increased about 3 percent
in what was formerly West Germany.  In its national plan, Germany has
also sought to achieve the Convention's goal by implementing a broad
range of voluntary and regulatory measures aimed at reducing
greenhouse gas emissions. 

Progress in the United Kingdom is largely attributable to the
privatization of its energy utilities over the last decade, which is
bringing about a significant switch from coal to natural gas, the
fossil fuel that produces the lowest level of carbon dioxide
emissions per unit of energy consumed.  To illustrate, the Energy
Information Administration has estimated that natural gas as a
percentage of total energy consumption will increase in the United
Kingdom from 23 percent in 1990 to 35 percent in 2000.  The United
Kingdom has also increased its taxes on energy use, which it believes
will also help to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.  United Kingdom
officials now estimate that carbon dioxide emissions in 2000 will be
about 4 percent to 8 percent below 1990 emissions. 


   CONCLUSIONS
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :5

The ability to assess countries' individual and relative efforts in
reducing greenhouse gas emissions depends greatly on the countries'
reporting of complete, reliable, and consistent emissions data. 
However, some of the national plans submitted by Annex I countries
have not provided such data.  Consequently, a complete assessment
cannot be made of whether these countries will meet the Convention's
goal of reducing all greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000. 
The recent adoption of revised reporting standards should improve the
ability to assess progress against the current Convention goal. 
Negotiations are already under way aimed at reaching agreement on
new, binding emissions targets past 2000 for these same countries. 
Reporting guidelines designed to help ensure that complete, reliable,
and complete emissions data are provided by countries will also be an
essential element of any new agreement. 


   RECOMMENDATION
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :6

We recommend to the Secretary of State that, as part of ongoing
international negotiations, the United States urge that reporting
standards be formulated and adopted for any new targets beyond 2000
in order to enhance the completeness, reliability, and consistency of
emissions data. 


   AGENCY COMMENTS
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :7

We provided a draft of our report to the Department of State, the
Council on Environmental Quality, the Department of Energy, and the
Environmental Protection Agency for their review and comment. 

The Department of State commented that our report provides an
accurate assessment of the progress of countries in reducing
greenhouse gas emissions.  The Department also agreed with our
recommendation and noted that revisions had recently been made to the
reporting guidelines that will lead to improved national plans.  We
updated our report to reflect that recent development.  The
Department also provided several additional comments, and we have
revised the report as appropriate.  (See app.  IV for the Department
of State's comments and our response.)

The Council on Environmental Quality noted that our report provides a
useful overview of the activities to date by the United States and
other developed countries and agreed with our recommendation.  The
Council provided additional information to add context to our report. 
(See app.  V for the Council's comments and our response.)

The Department of Energy provided editorial comments on our report,
which we incorporated as appropriate.  The Environmental Protection
Agency had no comments on our report. 


---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :7.1

We conducted our audit work from September 1995 through July 1996 in
accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.  A
detailed discussion of our objectives, scope, and methodology is
contained in appendix VI. 

As agreed with your office, unless you publicly announce its contents
earlier, we plan no further distribution of this report until 15 days
from the date of this letter.  At that time, we will send copies to
the Secretary of State; the Secretary of Energy; the Administrator,
Environmental Protection Agency; the Director, Council on
Environmental Quality; the Director, Office of Management and Budget;
and other interested parties.  We will also make copies available
upon request. 

Please call me at (202) 512-6111 if you or your staff have any
questions.  Major contributors to this report are listed in appendix
VII. 

Sincerely yours,

Peter F.  Guerrero
Director, Environmental
 Protection Issues


COMMITMENTS ESTABLISHED BY THE
UNITED NATIONS FRAMEWORK
CONVENTION ON CLIMATE CHANGE
=========================================================== Appendix I

The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change entered
into force on March 21, 1994.  As of June 1996, 159 countries had
ratified the Convention.  The Convention's ultimate objective is the
"stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at
a level that would prevent dangerous interference with the climate
system from human activities."\9 To achieve this goal, the Convention
established different types of goals and commitments for developed
and developing countries.  Under the Convention, all parties are to
do the following: 

  -- Prepare and communicate to the Conference of the Parties
     inventories of greenhouse gas emissions caused by human activity
     using comparable methodologies. 

  -- Develop and communicate to the Conference of the Parties
     programs to mitigate the effects of greenhouse gases and
     measures the countries might take to adapt to climate change. 

  -- Cooperate in the transfer of technology addressing greenhouse
     gas emissions in all relevant sectors of the economy. 

  -- Promote sustainable management of greenhouse gas sinks and
     reservoirs. 

  -- Cooperate in preparing for adaptation to the impacts of climate
     change. 

  -- Integrate considerations of climate change with other policies. 

  -- Conduct research to reduce the uncertainties about scientific
     knowledge of climate change, the effects of the phenomenon, and
     the effectiveness of responses to it. 

  -- Exchange information on matters such as technology and the
     economic consequences of actions covered by the Convention. 

In addition to the above commitments, the Convention required
developed countries and other parties included in Annex I of the
Convention to do the following: 

  -- Adopt national policies and take corresponding measures to
     mitigate climate change with the aim of returning human-induced
     emissions of greenhouse gases to 1990 levels by the year 2000
     and by protecting and enhancing greenhouse gas sinks and
     reservoirs. 

  -- Communicate, within 6 months of the Convention's entry into
     force and periodically thereafter, detailed information on
     policies and measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions, as well
     as on the resulting projections of greenhouse gas emissions and
     removals by sinks. 

  -- Coordinate as appropriate with other parties the relevant
     economic and administrative instruments developed to achieve the
     objective of the Convention. 

  -- Identify and periodically review policies and practices that
     encourage activities that lead to greater levels of
     human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases than would otherwise
     occur. 

The 36 Annex I countries are listed below.\10 Of the Annex I
countries, Belarus, Ukraine, and Turkey have not ratified the
Convention.  The European Economic Community--now known as the
European Union--was also included as an Annex I party to the
Convention.  The countries listed in bold are those undergoing a
transition to a market economy. 

Australia
Austria
Belarus
Belgium
Bulgaria
Canada
Czech Republic
Denmark
Estonia
Finland
France
Germany
Greece
Hungary
Iceland
Ireland
Italy
Japan
Latvia
Lithuania
Luxembourg
Netherlands
New Zealand
Norway
Poland
Portugal
Romania
Russian Federation
Slovak Republic
Spain
Sweden
Switzerland
Turkey
Ukraine
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland
United States of America


--------------------
\9 The Convention seeks to control those greenhouse gases not covered
under the Montreal Protocol. 

\10 On January 1, 1993, the Federal Republic of Czechoslovakia was
dissolved and the Czech Republic and the Slovak Republic became
independent States, each of which took on Annex I commitments. 


DESCRIPTION OF COUNTRIES' NATIONAL
GOALS
========================================================== Appendix II

The six countries we reviewed--Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, the
United Kingdom, and the United States--established various goals and
employed varying approaches to attempt to meet their commitments
under the Convention.  This appendix describes the goals and plans to
meet the goals for each of the six countries we reviewed. 


      CANADA
------------------------------------------------------ Appendix II:0.1

In 1990, Canada adopted a national goal to stabilize net emissions of
all greenhouse gases by 2000 relative to 1990 emissions.  Canada
released its National Report on Climate Change to meet the goal. 
Canada's approach relies primarily on a set of voluntary measures
aimed at increasing energy efficiency and conservation and
encouraging a switch to less carbon dioxide-intensive energy sources. 
Because of Canada's high energy- intensity, most of its greenhouse
gas emissions are generated by the demand for energy to heat and
light homes and operate industries, as well as for other uses. 
Carbon dioxide emissions, generated chiefly from energy production
and consumption, accounted for the majority of the 1990 actual
emissions.  Canada has acknowledged that it will miss its national
goal if additional actions are not taken.  It is not yet known how
any additional initiatives will affect Canada's progress toward the
climate change goal. 


      GERMANY
------------------------------------------------------ Appendix II:0.2

Germany established an ambitious goal of reducing its emissions of
carbon dioxide by 25 percent to 30 percent and its emissions of other
greenhouse gases by 50 percent in 2005 relative to 1987 emissions
levels.  Germany has sought to achieve the goals by implementing a
broad range of over 100 measures primarily aimed at reducing carbon
dioxide emissions.  Thus far, carbon dioxide emissions in Germany
have decreased by about 16 percent from 1987 to 1994, primarily
because of depressed economic conditions in the former East Germany. 
In addition to those reductions, several German industry associations
have agreed to voluntarily decrease carbon dioxide emissions by up to
20 percent relative to 1990 levels in order to help Germany meet its
own ambitious goal.  However, recent reports suggest that Germany
will not be able to meet its own ambitious goal, although it will
most likely meet the Convention's goal by reducing greenhouse gas
emissions below 1990 levels by 2000. 


      ITALY
------------------------------------------------------ Appendix II:0.3

The Italian government has noted that its national plan was the
outgrowth of policies adopted for the Convention, but also designed
to comply with prior decisions by the European Union to stabilize
greenhouse gas emissions.  The plan cites several initiatives already
under way in the energy and transportation sectors but notes that an
annual increase of between 0.4 percent and 0.9 percent in carbon
dioxide emissions from energy consumption would still result. 

The plan also discusses possible additional initiatives that would
help stabilize greenhouse gas emissions.  These initiatives are
primarily aimed at electricity generation, industrial production, the
residential sector, and transport.  Budgetary constraints and other
factors, however, may impede the implementation of such measures.  A
recent estimate by the Italian Environment Ministry is that carbon
dioxide emissions will increase by about 3 percent between 1990 and
2000.  An official in that ministry stated that the government is
still confident that it can meet the Convention's goal by enacting
additional measures. 


      JAPAN
------------------------------------------------------ Appendix II:0.4

Japan has established a goal of stabilizing its per capita emissions
and total emissions of carbon dioxide at 1990 levels by 2000.  To
achieve the carbon dioxide target, in October 1990 Japan established
an Action Program to Arrest Global Warming.  In addition, Japan has
pledged to undertake efforts to stabilize methane, nitrous oxide, and
other greenhouse gas emissions, but has not specified a reference
year.  Japan estimates that it will not reach its goal of reducing
total carbon dioxide emissions, if additional measures are not taken. 
Japan sought to reduce its emissions by building several nuclear
power plants to help phase out the use of coal, but it has
encountered difficulties in siting and building the plants. 


      UNITED KINGDOM
------------------------------------------------------ Appendix II:0.5

The United Kingdom has adopted the Convention's goal of stabilizing
emissions of all greenhouse gases at 1990 levels in the year 2000. 
The United Kingdom establishes its strategy for meeting the goal in a
January 1994 report, Climate Change, The UK Programme.  The program
relies essentially on a set of measures to reduce carbon dioxide
emissions by improving energy efficiency.  The United Kingdom also
has adopted an 8-percent value added tax on residential fuel.  The
United Kingdom's program aims to return carbon dioxide emissions to
1990 levels by reducing emissions by 6 percent.  The program also
aims to reduce emissions of methane around 10 percent below 1990
levels, nitrous oxide by 75 percent, and emissions of other
greenhouse gases from 25 percent to 90 percent.  A United Kingdom
official said that the country estimates it will meet its national
target. 


      UNITED STATES
------------------------------------------------------ Appendix II:0.6

In response to its commitment to the Climate Convention, the United
States issued the Climate Change Action Plan (CCAP) in October 1993. 
The plan includes 44 initiatives designed to return net emissions of
the major greenhouse gases--carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxides,
and hydrofluorocarbons--to 1990 levels by 2000.  The plan relies
primarily on voluntary programs to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
and enhance the capacity of greenhouse gas sinks to store carbon
dioxide removed from the atmosphere.  The U.S.  plan aims to cut the
net projected growth of 7 percent in the major greenhouse gas
emissions between 1990 and 2000 in order to return emissions to 1990
levels by 2000. 

The United States estimates that it will likely fall short of its
target without additional measures.  Currently, the Council on
Environmental Quality, the Department of Energy, the Department of
State, and the Environmental Protection Agency are updating the plan
by developing additional ways to achieve the Convention's goal.  The
new CCAP is scheduled to be issued in the fall of 1996. 


CHANGES IN KEY ECONOMIC FACTORS
FOR THE UNITED STATES
========================================================= Appendix III

Changes in key economic factors and energy prices have made it more
difficult for the United States to meet the goal of reducing
greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by 2000.  Table III.1 shows
changes in key growth factors between the 1993 Climate Change Action
Plan (CCAP) and the Energy Information Administration's Annual Energy
Outlook (AEO) 1996.  Table III.2 compares projected fuel prices in
2000 in these two documents. 



                        Table III.1
          
           Projections of Annual Growth Rates in
              Key Economic Factors, 1990-2000

                                          Effect on
                        CCAP    AEO 1996  greenhouse gas
Economic factor    (percent)   (percent)  emissions
----------------  ----------  ----------  ----------------
Real GDP growth          2.3         2.4  Increase
Annual                   0.7         1.0  Increase
 population
 growth
Residential              0.9         1.0  Increase
 housing stock
Commercial               1.3         1.6  Increase
 floorspace
Industrial               2.5         2.0  Decrease
 production
 index
Industrial              -1.4        -0.8  Increase
 energy
 intensity
----------------------------------------------------------
Sources:  Technical Supplement to CCAP and AEO 1996. 



                              Table III.2
                
                  Projections of Major Fuel Prices for
                                  2000

                                                    CCAP
                                  CCAP (in    (converted  AEO 1996 (in
                                      1991       to 1994          1994
Fuel type                         dollars)      dollars)      dollars)
----------------------------  ------------  ------------  ------------
World oil price (dollars per        $22.28        $24.04        $19.27
 barrel)
Wellhead natural gas                 $2.53         $2.73         $1.89
 (dollars per thousand cubic
 feet)
Minemouth coal (dollars per         $25.97        $28.03        $17.44
 ton)
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources:  Technical Supplement to CCAP and AEO 1996. 




(See figure in printed edition.)Appendix IV
COMMENTS FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF
STATE
========================================================= Appendix III



(See figure in printed edition.)



(See figure in printed edition.)


The following are GAO's comments on the Department of State's letter
dated July 31, 1996. 


   GAO'S COMMENTS
------------------------------------------------------- Appendix III:1

1.  We have revised our report to reflect the recent adoption of
revised reporting guidelines for national plans to be submitted in
conjunction with the Convention's current goal and the potential
improvement they provide. 

2.  We continue to believe that a significant portion of the
emissions data from national plans submitted thus far are incomplete,
unreliable, or inconsistent.  Therefore, as noted in the report,
these data limit an assessment of countries' progress against the
Convention's goal.  We agree that estimates provided by other groups,
such as the International Energy Agency, also provide some basis for
determining progress, especially given that many Annex I countries
will probably not come close to reaching the Convention's current
goal.  However, these other estimates are limited to carbon dioxide. 
Additionally, it is unclear how emissions data from these other
groups will be considered by the Conference of the Parties in
assessing progress against the current goal or any future binding
targets. 

3.  We revised our report to note the formulation and adoption of
improved guidelines from the Conference of the Parties in July 1996. 
We also noted that the original guidelines were adopted in April
1995, after the submission of many of the national plans. 

4.  We do not state in our report that progress will be assessed
solely on the basis of the national plans but rather that the ability
to assess countries' progress depends greatly on complete, reliable,
and consistent data.  We believe national plans will be a key
component of that assessment and therefore improving the data in the
plans is important.  Additionally, as noted in comment 2, estimates
from other groups apply only to carbon dioxide, and it is unclear how
such estimates would be factored into assessing progress by the
Conference of the Parties. 

5.  We revised our recommendation to note that reporting guidance
could help enhance the completeness, reliability, and consistency of
the reported emissions data rather than solve all the data problems. 
Also, despite broad agreement on methodologies for calculation of
historical emissions, high levels of uncertainty still exist on
reported emissions data other than carbon dioxide. 




(See figure in printed edition.)Appendix V
COMMENTS FROM THE COUNCIL ON
ENVIRONMENTAL QUALITY
========================================================= Appendix III



(See figure in printed edition.)


The following are GAO's comments on the Council on Environmental
Quality's letter dated July 31, 1996. 


   GAO'S COMMENTS
------------------------------------------------------- Appendix III:2

1.  The Council on Environmental Quality notes that it is not
surprising that differences exist in details reported by the
countries, particularly for gases that constitute only a small
fraction of greenhouse gases.  However, we found that some of the
problems with reported greenhouse gas emissions data, such as
adjustments to 1990 emissions, also applied to carbon dioxide, the
greenhouse gas reported to be the largest contributor to global
warming.  Additionally, emissions of greenhouse gases other than
carbon dioxide--for which reported emissions data were incomplete in
some cases and for which the reliability of the data was
uncertain--constitute a significant enough portion of estimated total
greenhouse gases to influence whether or not countries can meet the
Convention's current goal or future binding targets.  For example,
these gases have been estimated to account for about 15 percent of
the total U.S.  greenhouse gas emissions in 1990 and that percentage
is higher in many Annex I countries. 

2.  We have revised the report to note this recent development. 


OBJECTIVES, SCOPE, AND METHODOLOGY
========================================================== Appendix VI

The Ranking Minority Member of the House Committee on Commerce asked
us to review the efforts of the United States and other Annex I
countries toward returning greenhouse gas emissions to 1990 levels by
2000 as agreed under the 1992 United Nations Framework Convention on
Climate Change.  In addition, the requester asked that we determine
the major factors that may impede the countries' progress in
achieving the goal.  We conducted our work from September 1995
through July 1996 in accordance with generally accepted government
auditing standards. 

To determine the progress that the United States and other Annex I
countries have made in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to 1990
levels, we obtained data on each country's greenhouse gas emissions
for 1990 and projections for 2000--from the United Nations
Secretariat on the Climate Change Convention and from other groups
such as the Energy Information Administration and the International
Energy Agency.  We also reviewed other reports prepared by the
Convention Secretariat that assessed the adequacy of the Convention's
reporting guidelines and the national plans.  We also discussed
reporting issues with State Department and Convention officials. 

To determine the major factors that affect the countries' progress
toward achieving the emissions target, we concentrated our efforts on
Canada, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United
States.  We chose those six countries because they have been the
largest emitters of carbon dioxide for developed countries.  We
obtained and reviewed the national plans of the six countries and
spoke with representatives of each country to determine the major
factors affecting their ability to reach the Convention's goal.  We
also discussed these factors with climate change experts and reviewed
relevant reports from the Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development, the International Energy Agency, the Energy Information
Administration, the Global Climate Coalition, and the United States
Climate Action Network. 


MAJOR CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS REPORT
========================================================= Appendix VII

RESOURCES, COMMUNITY, AND ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT DIVISION

William F.  McGee, Assistant Director
Robert D.  Wurster, Senior Evaluator
Mary A.  Crenshaw, Senior Evaluator


*** End of document. ***