Superfund: Estimates of Number of Future Sites Vary (Letter Report,
11/29/94, GAO/RCED-95-18).

Since 1980, nearly 37,000 nonfederal sites have been reported to the
Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) hazardous waste site inventory.
The number of sites reported each year has declined steadily since 1985,
reaching 1,159 nonfederal sites in fiscal year 1993. However, the
proportion of sites judged upon inspection to have serious potential
contamination in fiscal year 1993 was the same (43 percent) that it
averaged in the past. EPA officials attributed the decline in the number
of reported sites to the fact that states believe that they can handle
cleanups more efficiently and prefer to deal with sites in their own
cleanup programs. Recent estimates of the number of reported sites that
will eventually be included in the National Priorities List--the
register of Superfund sites--vary widely. EPA has estimated that 1,700
new sites could be added to the list through the year 2020. The
Congressional Budget Office concluded that 3,300 new nonfederal sites
could be added to the priorities list through the year 2027. GAO
believes that between 2,500 and 2,800 nonfederal sites could be added to
the list just from the inventory of sites undergoing or awaiting
evaluation.

--------------------------- Indexing Terms -----------------------------

 REPORTNUM:  RCED-95-18
     TITLE:  Superfund: Estimates of Number of Future Sites Vary
      DATE:  11/29/94
   SUBJECT:  Environmental monitoring
             Hazardous substances
             Waste disposal
             Pollution control
             State-administered programs
             Environmental policies
             Projections
             Site selection
             Environment evaluation
             Waste management
IDENTIFIER:  Superfund Program
             EPA National Priorities List
             
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Cover
================================================================ COVER


Report to Congressional Requesters

November 1994

SUPERFUND - ESTIMATES OF NUMBER OF
FUTURE SITES VARY

GAO/RCED-95-18

Superfund


Abbreviations
=============================================================== ABBREV

  CBO - Congressional Budget Office
  EPA - Environmental Protection Agency
  GAO - General Accounting Office

Letter
=============================================================== LETTER


B-257698

November 29, 1994

The Honorable John D.  Dingell
Chairman, Committee on Energy and Commerce
House of Representatives

The Honorable Al Swift
Chairman, Subcommittee on Transportation
 and Hazardous Materials
Committee on Energy and Commerce
House of Representatives

When Superfund, the Environmental Protection Agency's (EPA) program
to clean up the nation's worst hazardous waste sites, was created in
1980, the program was expected to deal with a limited number of sites
over a relatively short time.  Now we know that the number of sites
needing attention is much larger than originally believed and that
the program could run at least several more decades.  However, there
is uncertainty about how many sites may eventually enter the program
and whether fewer, less heavily contaminated sites are now being
reported to EPA than were reported earlier in the program's history. 
Estimates about how many sites will need cleaning up in the future
could influence policy-making about the program's design and the
division of cleanup responsibilities between federal and state
governments. 

Because of your interest in these subjects, you asked us to (1)
examine trends in the number of reported sites and EPA's evaluation
of potential contamination at these sites as indicated by the
agency's site inspections and (2) review recent estimates of the
future growth of the Superfund program. 


   RESULTS IN BRIEF
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :1

Since 1980, almost 37,000 nonfederal sites have been reported to
EPA's hazardous waste site inventory.  The number of sites reported
each year has declined steadily since 1985, reaching 1,159 nonfederal
sites in fiscal year 1993.  However, the proportion of sites judged
upon inspection to have serious potential contamination in fiscal
year 1993 was the same (43 percent) that it averaged in the past. 
EPA officials said that the number of reported sites has declined not
because the supply of potential sites is being exhausted, but because
the states, which are the principal source of site reports, believe
that they can handle cleanups more efficiently and prefer to deal
with sites in their own cleanup programs. 

Recent estimates of the number of reported sites that will eventually
be included in the National Priorities List--the register of
Superfund sites--vary widely.  EPA has estimated that 1,700 new sites
could be added to the priorities list through the year 2020.  The
Congressional Budget Office (CBO)\1 concluded that 3,300 new
nonfederal sites could be added to the priorities list through the
year 2027.\2 Our analysis shows that between 2,500 and 2,800
nonfederal sites could be added to the priorities list just from the
inventory of sites undergoing or awaiting evaluation. 


--------------------
\1 The Total Costs of Cleaning Up Nonfederal Superfund Sites,
Congressional Budget Office (Jan.  1994). 

\2 EPA's Inspector General also prepared an estimate of future sites
to be added to the priorities list.  As discussed later in the
report, this estimate was only for a portion of the sites in the
current inventory being assessed for the Superfund program. 


   BACKGROUND
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :2

EPA does not actively seek out sites for the Superfund program but
relies on states or interested parties to report them.  Once
reported, sites are added to EPA's inventory for evaluation.  As of
March 1994, EPA's inventory had 36,785 nonfederal sites, of which
1,192 had been placed on the National Priorities List. 

Evaluation of potentially hazardous sites occurs in several stages. 
At the completion of each stage, EPA may determine that no federal
action is needed or it may proceed to the next stage.  First, EPA
requires that a site receive a preliminary assessment within a year
of its entry into the inventory.  The preliminary assessment involves
a review of available documents and possible site reconnaissance.  If
the preliminary assessment indicates a potential problem, the site
moves to the next stage of evaluation--the site inspection--which
involves collecting and analyzing soil and water samples as
appropriate. 

If warranted by the results of the site inspection, sites enter the
final decision process.  This process involves other evaluations,
including an extended site inspection if needed, scoring under EPA's
hazard ranking system; and a judgment by EPA officials on the
appropriateness of listing the site on the priorities list.  An
extended site inspection requires more samples and could involve
installing wells to monitor groundwater or other nonroutine data
collection activities.  The hazard ranking system is a method of
quantifying the severity of site contamination to determine if a site
should be placed on the list.  The system assigns a numerical score
based on the likelihood that a site has released or has the potential
to release contaminants into the environment, the characteristics of
the contaminants, and the people or environments affected by the
release.  A site must score at least 28.5 on the hazard ranking scale
in order to be placed on the list.  Sites can be dropped from further
consideration following the extended site inspection or the scoring
process.  Sites also can be dropped from further consideration if, in
the judgment of EPA regional officials, the sites do not pose risks
great enough to warrant a Superfund cleanup. 

In addition to the sites following the process described above, the
EPA inventory includes a large group of sites that have already been
inspected but are awaiting reevaluation because of a change in the
evaluation process.  The Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act
of 1986 required EPA to revise its evaluation system to make it more
comprehensive and accurate in its assessment of threats to human
health and the environment.  According to EPA site assessment
officials, the revision will change the mix of sites, but not
necessarily the number of sites, that will end up on the priorities
list.  The revision was effective in March 1991.  During the
transition to the revised system, sites were evaluated through the
site inspection stage using the original evaluation system.  However,
EPA decided to use the new system to make final decisions about
placing these sites on the priorities list.  In October 1991, EPA
began to reevaluate these 6,467 sites, which it referred to as its
evaluation backlog.  Reevaluation could include collecting additional
site information as well as limited sampling.  As of the close of
fiscal year 1993, EPA had completed this process for about 1,600 of
the 6,467 sites. 


   REPORTED SITES HAVE DECLINED IN
   NUMBER BUT NOT IN SEVERITY OF
   CONTAMINATION
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :3

Fewer sites are being reported to EPA for evaluation, but site
inspection results indicate that new sites reaching the site
inspection stage are as likely to have contamination requiring a
Superfund cleanup as those inspected in the past. 


      FEWER REPORTED SITES
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :3.1

The number of sites reported annually has been declining since fiscal
year 1985.  (See fig.  1.) In fiscal year 1993, 1,159 sites were
added to the inventory--29 percent less than the prior year and 68
percent less than in fiscal year 1985. 

   Figure 1:  Nonfederal Sites
   Reported by Fiscal Year

   (See figure in printed
   edition.)

Note:  These sites do not include those owned by the federal
government.  We have discussed federal agencies' efforts to identify
and evaluate their hazardous waste sites in the following reports: 
Superfund:  Backlog of Unevaluated Federal Facilities Slows Cleanup
Efforts (GAO/RCED-93-119, July 20, 1993) and Federal Facilities: 
Agencies Slow to Define the Scope and Cost of Hazardous Waste Site
Cleanups (GAO/RCED-94-73, Apr.  15, 1994). 

EPA attributed the decline since 1985 to the fact that many states
now have their own Superfund programs.  According to EPA site
assessment officials, states are reluctant to report new sites,
preferring instead to manage the cleanup themselves.\3 EPA Region I
site assessment officials suggested that states generally report
sites that present challenging enforcement or cleanup problems. 


--------------------
\3 The reason for states not reporting sites is explained in greater
detail in Relative Risk in Superfund (GAO/RCED-94-233R, June 17,
1994). 


      PERCENTAGES OF SITES JUDGED
      POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS HAVE
      NOT BEEN DECLINING
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :3.2

The percentage of sites that EPA believes warrant further
consideration after completing the site inspection has been fairly
steady for the last 10 years.\4 (See fig.  2.)

   Figure 2:  Percentage of Sites
   Considered for Further Action
   on the Basis of the Site
   Inspections

   (See figure in printed
   edition.)

From program inception through fiscal year 1993, 43 percent of the
17,556 sites inspected were considered hazardous enough to need
further consideration for the priorities list.  In fiscal year 1993,
43 percent of the 725 sites inspected were also considered for
further action.  (App.  II provides statistics on the number and
percent of nonfederal sites accepted and rejected for further
consideration after site inspection.)

EPA officials do not expect to find in the future very large, heavily
contaminated sites equivalent to Love Canal, which entered the
Superfund program early in its history.  However, the officials
believe that contamination at newly discovered sites is generally not
less severe than at previously reported sites--just less obvious. 
Earlier site discoveries more often included sites where the hazards
were visible, such as barrels of hazardous waste above ground.  Sites
that are being discovered and reported now, according to EPA
officials, are those with less obvious--but equally
serious--problems, such as groundwater or drinking water
contamination. 


--------------------
\4 We have not used the results of the preliminary assessment--the
evaluation stage preceding the site inspection--as an indicator of
trends in the seriousness of site contamination because it does not
usually involve on-site data collection.  In addition, EPA officials
believe that preliminary assessment results, taken alone, are not
very significant indicators of trends in the severity of site
contamination.  The rate at which sites have been accepted for
further consideration following a preliminary assessment has declined
since the early days of the program but has fluctuated within a range
in recent years.  Appendix I provides statistics on the number and
percentage of nonfederal sites accepted and rejected for further
consideration after a preliminary assessment, by fiscal year. 


   ESTIMATES OF FUTURE SUPERFUND
   WORKLOAD VARY WIDELY
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :4

Recent estimates of the future size of the Superfund workload have
differed.  In congressional testimony in February 1994, EPA forecast
the smallest increase--1,700 new sites.  In a report dated January
1994, CBO predicted 3,300 new sites through 2027, although it said
that a wide range of additions was possible.  EPA's Inspector General
in a January 1994 report estimated that 3,000 of the 6,467 sites in
the agency's evaluation backlog could be added to the Superfund. 


      EPA ESTIMATED THE SMALLEST
      INCREASE IN SUPERFUND SITES
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :4.1

In February 1994 congressional testimony,\5 EPA's Administrator
testified that the Superfund National Priorities List could grow to
about 3,000 federal and nonfederal sites, or roughly 1,700 more sites
than are currently on the list.  According to EPA officials, this
estimate was based on an internal agency analysis prepared by the
Office of Emergency and Remedial Response.  The Office prepared low,
medium, and high estimates, and EPA based its testimony on the medium
estimate.  (See app.  III for a detailed breakdown of EPA's
estimates.)

EPA's estimates treated current and future inventory sites
differently.  In EPA's medium estimate, 6.5 percent of the currently
reported sites were estimated to become Superfund sites compared with
3.5 percent of the sites that will be reported in the future.  The
inventory of reported sites was estimated to grow by 20,500 sites by
the year 2020, or 54 percent more than at present.  The estimate
projected that the number of sites added to the inventory each year
would decline from 1,500 sites in fiscal years 1994 through 1999 to
500 sites in fiscal years 2010 through 2019.  EPA officials said that
they based the decline on less state reporting, not on the existence
of fewer sites that could be reported. 


--------------------
\5 Testimony before the Subcommittee on Transportation and Hazardous
Materials, House Committee on Energy and Commerce (Feb.  3, 1994). 


      CBO PREDICTED LARGEST
      INCREASE IN SITES
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :4.2

CBO's estimate of potential future Superfund additions was developed
in two parts.  (See app.  V.) First, CBO estimated the number of
sites that would be reported to EPA's inventory of potential
hazardous waste sites by developing trend lines based on the number
of sites reported from 1981 to 1992.  Because of the data's
variability, CBO developed a base case, or most probable scenario,
and low- and high-case scenarios.\6 In the base case, CBO estimated
that 25,394 sites would be added to the inventory by the year 2027. 
This estimate was about 5,000 sites higher than EPA's medium
estimate.\7 In the low and high cases, CBO estimated that 15,151 and
50,000 sites, respectively, would be added. 

Second, to determine the percentage of reported sites that would
ultimately be placed on the priorities list, CBO relied on EPA
staff's opinion since, according to CBO's report, usable site
evaluation data were not available.  When asked by CBO, EPA staff
estimated that between 5 and 10 percent of all future inventory sites
would be placed on the priorities list.  CBO chose 8 percent for its
base-case estimate and applied this rate to current and future
inventory sites.  For its own medium forecast, EPA estimated that 6.5
percent of the current inventory and 3.5 percent of the sites added
to the inventory in the future will be placed on the priorities list. 
CBO's base-case estimate, after adjustment to eliminate federal
sites, resulted in adding 3,300 more sites to the priorities list. 
The range of additional sites for the low- and high-case scenarios
was between 1,100 and 6,600 sites. 


--------------------
\6 CBO used historical trends in site reporting to develop its
scenarios.  CBO used data from 1981 through 1992 to obtain its
base-case projection and data from 1987 to 1992 to obtain its
low-case estimate.  The office used historical data for its high-case
estimate but assumed a slower decline in site reporting. 

\7 EPA prepared high, medium, and low forecasts of the future size of
the National Priorities List, each of which assumed different
inventory growth rates.  The 3,000-site estimate--the medium
forecast--was used by the EPA Administrator in congressional
testimony.  The high estimate (4,162 sites) assumed that 25,000 sites
would be reported. 


      INSPECTOR GENERAL ESTIMATED
      MANY BACKLOGGED SITES COULD
      MOVE TO PRIORITIES LIST
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :4.3

EPA's Inspector General estimated that 3,136 sites in the evaluation
backlog could move to the priorities list.  This estimate was made as
part of a study of EPA's processing of these backlogged sites.\8 At
the time of the Inspector General's review, EPA had evaluated only
942 of the 6,467 sites.  To estimate the number of potential sites
for the priorities list, the Inspector General determined the
proportion of sites evaluated in each region that were found to
warrant consideration for the priorities list.  The Inspector General
then applied these proportions to the total number of backlogged
sites in each region and added the regional numbers.  The Inspector
General reduced the total to account for an estimated proportion of
sites that drop out in the final decision process. 

More recent data suggest that the Inspector General's estimate may be
somewhat high.  According to EPA's site evaluation staff, the
Inspector General's estimate of 3,136 additional sites is high since
it assumed that in the future, 52 percent of the sites in the backlog
could move beyond the site inspection stage, the rate prevailing when
the Office of Inspector General did its study.  However, data for
fiscal year 1993, available after the Inspector General completed the
study, showed that the percentage of the backlogged sites warranting
priorities list consideration had dropped to 28 percent. 


--------------------
\8 "Program Enhancements Would Accelerate Superfund Site Assessment
and Cleanup," Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Inspector
General (Jan.  31, 1994). 


   SUPERFUND'S EVENTUAL WORKLOAD
   MAY BE HIGHER THAN EPA'S
   ESTIMATE
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :5

The number of future Superfund sites cannot be predicted with
certainty.  However, data from an EPA study of potential U.S. 
hazardous waste sites and our own analysis indicate that, assuming no
major restructuring of the program, EPA's estimate of 1,700
additional future Superfund sites is conservative.  The CBO estimate,
especially the upper bounds of that estimate, may be a better
predictor of potential program growth.\9 Given the limited pace of
site cleanup by the Superfund program to date, any of the increases
in Superfund's size discussed in this report may be difficult for the
program to manage. 


--------------------
\9 As indicated later in this report, the number of future Superfund
sites could be reduced if proposals to expand the states'
responsibility for cleanups are adopted. 


      LARGE NUMBER OF SITES COULD
      BE ADDED TO THE INVENTORY
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :5.1

A September 1991 EPA analysis estimated that 58,000 sites could be
added to the inventory in the future.\10 When EPA made this estimate,
it already had 34,618 sites in its inventory, for a combined total of
92,618 sites.  This total is almost 6,000 sites more than CBO's
high-case scenario estimate for the number of sites that would be in
the inventory by 2032 and 1-1/2 times as high as the upper-bound
estimate by EPA for the size of the inventory by 2020.  Both CBO and
EPA based their estimates on the number of sites expected to be
reported under current EPA and state policies, not on the number that
could be reported.  The 58,000-site estimate, on the other hand, is
for sites that could be reported. 

The estimated 58,000 sites consisted of sites that were assessed as
having a high or moderate hazard potential.  The estimate was
developed from estimates for 12 individual industries provided by EPA
divisions familiar with them.  Each industry estimate was based on an
analysis of data and judgment by EPA officials.  Most of the sites
were in one of the following categories:  Resource Conservation and
Recovery Act industrial process waste facilities,\11

municipal solid waste landfills, off-site oil and gas waste
management facilities, and large-quantity hazardous waste generators. 

EPA officials familiar with seven of the major categories,\12
accounting for 93 percent of the 58,000 sites, told us that the
results are still valid.  The officials said that the study's figures
represent the best estimates of the potential number of sites that
could be added to the inventory in the future, although one official
believed that the number of treatment, storage, and disposal
facilities was overstated by 2,000 sites.  The officials said that in
no case did an actual inventory of potential sites exist. 


--------------------
\10 "The Superfund Universe Study:  Interim Report," Environmental
Protection Agency, Office of Emergency and Remedial Response,
Hazardous Site Evaluation Division (Sept.  30, 1991). 

\11 This category includes all facilities that produce or manage
industrial nonhazardous wastes from manufacturing or industrial
operations. 

\12 The seven categories were Resource Conservation and Recovery Act
Subtitle D industrial process waste facilities; hazardous waste
generators; municipal solid waste landfills; oil and gas sites;
nonfuel mining sites; Resource Conservation and Recovery Act Subtitle
C treatment, storage, and disposal facilities; and underground
injection wells. 


      A LARGER PERCENTAGE OF
      CURRENTLY REPORTED SITES
      COULD BE PLACED ON THE
      PRIORITIES LIST
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :5.2

Our analysis indicates that between 10 and 11 percent of the
currently reported nonfederal sites could become Superfund sites. 
This percentage is greater than the 6.5 percent indicated in EPA's
medium estimate and is closer to CBO's 10 percent high-case estimate. 
As of September 30, 1993, EPA had completed evaluation for 26,026 of
the 35,782 nonfederal sites in its inventory.  The remaining 9,756
sites were in various stages of evaluation:  930 sites were awaiting
final listing decisions, 4,892 backlog sites were awaiting final
evaluation, 2,373 sites were awaiting site inspection, and 1,561
sites were awaiting preliminary assessment.  If 1993 screening rates
for these categories, as described in appendix IV, were to continue
into the future, 2,497 to 2,799 of the 9,756 sites could become
Superfund sites.  Adding this range to the 1,177 sites already on the
priorities list would result in a total estimate of 3,674 to 3,976
Superfund sites, or 10 to 11 percent, of the 35,782 inventoried
sites.  The Acting Deputy Director for EPA's Hazardous Site
Evaluation Division believed that the 1993 evaluation rates were a
reasonable basis for forecasting future Superfund additions from the
current inventory. 

We also recognize, however, that certain factors make estimates of
the number of future Superfund sites subject to substantial
uncertainties.  First, the rate at which sites move through the
assessment process onto the priorities list may change in the future,
making projections based on past rates inaccurate.  Also, proposed
legislation to reauthorize Superfund, which has been considered by
the Congress, contains provisions to encourage parties responsible
for hazardous waste sites to clean them up outside of the regular
Superfund program and to authorize states, in cooperation with EPA,
to assume certain cleanup responsibilities.  These changes could
reduce the number of sites that EPA would have to manage in the
Superfund program. 


      FUTURE SUPERFUND WORKLOAD
      MAY BE DIFFICULT TO MANAGE
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :5.3

Any of the estimates discussed in this report suggest that EPA will
be challenged by its future Superfund workload.  In the 14-year
history of the program through July 1994, Superfund has completed the
construction of remedies (such as the installation of groundwater
pumps and filters) at 234 of the 1,300 federal and nonfederal
Superfund sites.  Two years ago, EPA estimated that 650 sites would
reach the construction-completed stage by the year 2000.  At these
completion rates, it could take many decades for Superfund to clean
up its current inventory and future additions to the inventory. 
Although EPA has recently developed new procedures to speed up the
cleanup process, it is too early to tell what impact they will have
on the overall pace of the program. 


   AGENCY COMMENTS
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :6

As agreed with your offices, we did not obtain written agency
comments on a draft of this report.  However, we discussed the
contents of this report with program officials from EPA's Office of
Emergency and Remedial Response (Superfund).  EPA's Acting Site
Assessment Branch Chief said that the facts presented in this report
were balanced, fair, and accurate.  He also said that program changes
under consideration by the Congress and EPA, such as proposals to
increase the states' cleanup role, could significantly reduce the
number of sites to be added to the Superfund program. 


   SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :7

We conducted our work at EPA headquarters in Washington, D.C., and at
its regional offices in Boston (Region I), Chicago (Region V), and
Denver (Region VIII).  We selected these regions because they
presented a cross-section of Superfund activity and were
geographically diverse.  We obtained and reviewed recent reports and
studies on the future size of the Superfund workload.  We obtained
and analyzed site inventory statistics on preliminary assessment and
site inspection processing since program inception through the first
quarter of fiscal year 1994.  We interviewed EPA headquarters
officials and program management officials in three EPA regional
offices, as well as environmental protection officials in two states,
about Superfund site discovery and evaluation.  We reviewed the
relevance and appropriateness of studies conducted by CBO, EPA, and
EPA's Office of Inspector General and interviewed EPA program
officials on the status of major site categories that could affect
the Superfund site inventory.  We performed our work in accordance
with generally accepted government auditing standards between August
1993 and July 1994. 


---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :7.1

As arranged with your offices, unless you publicly announce its
contents earlier, we will make no further distribution of this report
until 30 days after the date of this letter.  At that time, we will
send copies of the report to other appropriate congressional
committees; the Administrator, EPA; the Director, Office of
Management and Budget; and other interested parties.  We will also
make copies available to others upon request.  Should you need
further information, please contact me at (202) 512-6112 if you or
your staff have any questions.  Major contributors to this report are
listed in appendix VI. 

Peter Guerrero
Director, Environmental
 Protection Issues


NONFEDERAL SITES ACCEPTED AND
REJECTED FOR FURTHER CONSIDERATION
AFTER PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT
=========================================================== Appendix I


                          Numb  Percen          Percen  Tota
Fiscal year                 er       t  Number       t     l
------------------------  ----  ------  ------  ------  ----
1980                      1,35      70     570      30  1,92
                             7                             7
1981                       534      55     442      45   976
1982                       680      59     471      41  1,15
                                                           1
1983                      1,28      75     438      25  1,71
                             0                             8
1984                      2,76      64   1,549      36  4,31
                             6                             5
1985                      3,29      64   1,871      36  5,16
                             4                             5
1986                      2,59      61   1,685      39  4,27
                             0                             5
1987                      2,11      53   1,891      47  4,00
                             0                             1
1988                      1,34      41   1,925      59  3,26
                             1                             6
1989                      1,12      40   1,676      60  2,80
                             6                             2
1990                       701      27   1,907      73  2,60
                                                           8
1991                       642      41     921      59  1,56
                                                           3
1992                       522      29   1,259      71  1,78
                                                           1
1993                       469      32   1,002      68  1,47
                                                           1
------------------------------------------------------------
Source:  Prepared by GAO using EPA data. 


NONFEDERAL SITES ACCEPTED AND
REJECTED FOR FURTHER CONSIDERATION
AFTER SITE INSPECTION
========================================================== Appendix II


                          Numb  Percen          Percen  Tota
Fiscal year                 er       t  Number       t     l
------------------------  ----  ------  ------  ------  ----
1980                       246      44     317      56   563
1981                       186      43     244      57   430
1982                       450      68     215      32   665
1983                       348      55     282      45   630
1984                       540      42     738      58  1,27
                                                           8
1985                       700      43     924      57  1,62
                                                           4
1986                       565      45     700      55  1,26
                                                           5
1987                       629      46     724      54  1,35
                                                           3
1988                       508      37     858      63  1,36
                                                           6
1989                       590      32   1,280      68  1,87
                                                           0
1990                       792      36   1,390      64  2,18
                                                           2
1991                       986      47   1,128      53  2,11
                                                           4
1992                       776      52     715      48  1,49
                                                           1
1993                       314      43     411      57   725
------------------------------------------------------------
Source:  Prepared by GAO using EPA data. 


EPA'S ESTIMATE OF FUTURE NATIONAL
PRIORITIES LIST SIZE THROUGH 2020
========================================================= Appendix III


                                           Low  Medium  High
----------------------------------------  ----  ------  ----
Sites now on the priorities list          1,32   1,321  1,32
                                             1             1
Sites that will be added to the list
 from the current inventory
Site inspection completed                  625     875  1,25
                                                           0
Awaiting site inspection                   137     164   219
Awaiting preliminary assessment             81     101   122
Subtotal                                   843   1,140  1,59
                                                           1
Total priorities list sites from the      2,16  2,461\  2,91
 already reported sites                      4       b     2
Sites that will be added to the list       300     718  1,25
 from future site reports                                  0
============================================================
Total                                     2,46  3,179\  4,16
                                             4       c     2
------------------------------------------------------------
\a The low, medium, and high ranges were based on the professional
judgment of EPA officials about the growth of the agency's inventory
of potentially hazardous waste sites and the rate at which these
sites would pass through the screening process.  EPA estimated a low
addition to the inventory of 15,000 sites; its medium estimate was
20,500 additional sites; and its high estimate was 25,000 sites. 

\b As discussed in this report, EPA estimated that 6.5 percent of the
sites reported through fiscal year 1993 would become Superfund sites. 
This percentage is the result of dividing 2,461, the estimated number
of sites to be added to the priorities list from the already reported
sites, by 37,885, the number of federal and nonfederal sites in
inventory (i.e., already reported) at the end of fiscal year 1993. 

\c EPA rounded the number of sites to 3,000 for purposes of its
estimate.  Since there were approximately 1,300 sites on the National
Priorities List at the time, EPA, in effect, was estimating that
another 1,700 sites would be added to the priorities list. 

Source:  Prepared by GAO using EPA data. 


NONFEDERAL SITES THAT COULD BE
ADDED TO THE NATIONAL PRIORITIES
LIST FROM THE INVENTORY IF FISCAL
YEAR 1993 EVALUATION RATES
CONTINUE
========================================================== Appendix IV


                                 Percent
                        Number  of sites
                      of sites      that
                            in  could be
                      inventor    listed
                        y (col      (col
                          A)\a      B)\b  (col A   x  col B)
--------------------  --------  --------  ------  --  ------
Sites evaluated--       24,849
 not placed on
 priorities list
Sites evaluated--        1,177             1,177       1,177
 placed on
 priorities list
Sites still to be
 evaluated
Sites awaiting final       930   70-80\c     651         744
 listing decision
Backlogged sites         4,892   20-22\d     978       1,076
 awaiting final
 evaluation
Sites awaiting site      2,373   30-34\e     712         807
 inspection
Sites awaiting           1,561   10-11\f     156         172
 preliminary
 assessment
============================================================
Subtotal of sites        9,756             2,497       2,799
 still to be
 evaluated
============================================================
Total                   35,782             3,674       3,976
============================================================
Overall percentage                            10          11
 of sites that could
 be placed on the
 priorities list\g
------------------------------------------------------------
\a Site inventory as of September 30, 1993. 

\b The percentage of sites that could be listed for each category was
determined by considering the pass rate for that category and all
succeeding categories.  For example, the pass rate for sites awaiting
preliminary assessment considers the pass rate for preliminary
assessments and the other processing steps the sites will go through
such as site inspection and final listing decisions. 

\c EPA could not provide data on the proportion of sites that have
gone onto the priorities list after they entered the final listing
decision process.  However, EPA's Site Assessment Branch Chief
estimated that 70 to 80 percent of these sites have been placed on
the list. 

\d The range was calculated as follows:  The rate in fiscal year 1993
at which backlogged sites were forwarded after reevaluation for final
listing decisions, times the estimated historical percent of sites
placed on the priorities list after this final listing decision
process (28 percent times 70-80 percent equals 20-22 percent). 

\e The range was calculated as follows:  The rate at which sites
receiving site inspections were forwarded for further consideration
in fiscal year 1993, times the estimated historical percent of sites
placed on the priorities list after final listing decisions (43
percent times 70-80 percent equals 30-34 percent). 

\f The range was calculated as follows:  The rate at which sites
receiving preliminary assessment were forwarded for further
consideration in fiscal year 1993, times the rate at which sites
receiving site inspection were forwarded for further consideration in
fiscal year 1993, times the percent of sites that would be placed on
the priorities list after final listing decisions (32 percent times
43 percent times 70-80 percent equals 10-11 percent). 

\g We divided the total number of sites in the range by the total
number of sites in the inventory (3,674 divided by 35,782 equals 10
percent; 3,976 divided by 35,782 equals 11 percent). 

Source:  GAO analysis of EPA, and EPA Inspector General data. 


CBO'S ESTIMATE OF THE FUTURE
NUMBER OF NONFEDERAL SITES ON THE
NATIONAL PRIORITIES LIST
=========================================================== Appendix V


                                             Low  Base  High
------------------------------------------  ----  ----  ----
Number of federal and nonfederal inventory
 sites\b
Sites already in inventory                  36,8  36,8  36,8
                                              14    14    14
Future reported sites                       15,1  25,3  50,0
                                              51    94    00
============================================================
Total                                       51,9  62,2  86,8
                                              65    08    14

Placement rate (percent)\c                     5     8    10

Total sites                                 2,59  4,97  8,68
                                               8     7     1
Minus federal sites                          260   498   868
Estimated priority list size before         2,33  4,47  7,81
 rounding                                      8     9     3
Estimated priority list size (rounded)\d    2,30  4,50  7,80
                                               0     0     0
------------------------------------------------------------
\a CBO projected low-case additions to the year 2022, base-case
additions to the year 2027 and high-case additions to the year 2032. 

\b As of the end of fiscal year 1992. 

\c CBO defines placement rate as the percentage of inventory sites
that will ultimately be placed on the priorities list. 

\d All three scenarios (low, base, and high) exclude federal
facilities, which CBO estimates would represent 10 percent of all
priorities list sites.  CBO rounded the results of its calculations. 

Source:  Prepared by GAO using CBO data. 


MAJOR CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS REPORT
========================================================== Appendix VI

RESOURCES, COMMUNITY, AND ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT DIVISION, WASHINGTON,
D.C. 

Bernice Steinhardt, Associate Director
James F.  Donaghy, Assistant Director

CHICAGO/DETROIT REGIONAL OFFICE

Stewart O.  Seman, Evaluator-in-Charge

BOSTON REGIONAL OFFICE

Bruce Skud, Senior Evaluator

