National Security Analysis Issue Area Plan--Fiscal Years 1997-99 (Letter
Report, 04/01/97, GAO/IAP-97-1).

GAO provided information on its National Security Analysis issue area
plan for fiscal years 1997-1999.

GAO plans to assess the: (1) extent to which the Department of Defense's
(DOD) initiatives for implementing the national military strategy result
in the efficient and effective allocation of resources; (2) efficiency
and effectiveness of DOD's existing and planned force structure; (3)
extent to which planned defense budgets accurately reflect the projected
costs of DOD programs; and (4) extent to which the intelligence
community is adequately addressing the changed threat and new
requirements.

--------------------------- Indexing Terms -----------------------------

 REPORTNUM:  IAP-97-1
     TITLE:  National Security Analysis Issue Area Plan--Fiscal Years 
             1997-99
      DATE:  04/01/97
   SUBJECT:  Strategic planning
             Defense budgets
             Human resources utilization
             Military forces
             Cost effectiveness analysis
             Combat readiness
             Defense cost control
             Military intelligence
             Future budget projections

             
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Cover
================================================================ COVER


National Security and International Affairs Division

April 1997

NATIONAL SECURITY ANALYSIS ISSUE
AREA PLAN

FISCAL YEARS 1997-99

GAO/IAP-97-1



Abbreviations
=============================================================== ABBREV

  DOD - Department of Defense

FOREWORD
============================================================ Chapter 0

As the investigative arm of Congress and the nation's auditor, the
General Accounting Office is charged with following the federal
dollar wherever it goes.  Reflecting stringent standards of
objectivity and independence, GAO's audits, evaluations, and
investigations promote a more efficient and cost-effective
government; expose waste, fraud, abuse, and mismanagement in federal
programs; help Congress target budget reductions; assess financial
information management; and alert Congress to developing trends that
may have significant fiscal or budgetary consequences.  In fulfilling
its responsibilities, GAO performs original research and uses
hundreds of databases or creates its own when information is
unavailable elsewhere. 

To ensure that GAO's resources are directed toward the most important
issues facing Congress, each of GAO's 32 issue areas develops a
strategic plan that describes the significance of the issues it
addresses, its objectives, and the focus of its work.  Each issue
area relies heavily on input from congressional committees, agency
officials, and subject-matter experts in developing its strategic
plan. 

The National Security Analysis issue area covers programs of the
Department of Defense (DOD), the individual military services, and
other supporting defense agencies.  GAO's work in this issue area
focuses on major DOD initiatives to implement the national military
strategy, force structure, budget analysis, and intelligence.  The
principal issues we cover are: 

  the extent to which DOD's initiatives for implementing the national
     military strategy result in the efficient and effective
     allocation of resources,

  the efficiency and effectiveness of DOD's existing and planned
     force structure,

  the extent to which planned defense budgets accurately reflect the
     projected costs of DOD programs, and

  the extent to which the intelligence community is adequately
     addressing the changed threat and new requirements. 

In the pages that follow, we describe our key planned work on these
important issues. 


Because events may significantly affect even the best of plans, our
planning process allows for updating and the flexibility to respond
quickly to emerging issues.  If you have any questions or suggestions
about this plan, please call me at (202) 512-3504. 

Richard Davis
Director
National Security Analysis


CONTENTS
============================================================ Chapter 1


   FOREWORD
---------------------------------------------------------- Chapter 1:1

1


   TABLE I:  KEY ISSUES
---------------------------------------------------------- Chapter 1:2

4


   TABLE II:  PLANNED MAJOR WORK
---------------------------------------------------------- Chapter 1:3

6


   TABLE III:  GAO CONTACTS
---------------------------------------------------------- Chapter 1:4

7


TABLE I:  KEY ISSUES
============================================================ Chapter 2

Issue                          Significance                                                Objectives                                                  Focus of Work
-----------------------------  ----------------------------------------------------------  ----------------------------------------------------------  -----------------------------
Strategy implementation: Do    Since the end of the Cold War, DOD has been undertaking     ï¿½ Evaluate whether DOD's major initiatives to implement     ï¿½Adjustments in defense
DOD's initiatives to           initiatives to adjust its programs and forces to reflect a  the                                                         programs and operations to
implement the national         changed security environment and reduced budgets,           national military strategy are based on sound assumptions   reflect the changed security
military strategy ensure       emphasizing the importance of jointness in its planning     and will result in an efficient and effective allocation    environment.
efficient and effective        and operations. However, many aspects of DOD's processes    of resources.
allocation of resources?       and approaches remain unchanged. Congress, concerned about                                                              ï¿½Opportunities to identify
                               DOD's progress in adapting to the new environment and the   ï¿½Assess DOD's progress in institutionalizing jointness in   greater efficiencies that
                               quality of DOD's future planning, has required DOD to       its programs, processes, and procedures.                    maximize force capabilities
                               complete a quadrennial defense review of strategy, force                                                                within reduced budgets.
                               structure, and modernization needs by May 1997.
                                                                                                                                                       ï¿½Potential for improving the
                                                                                                                                                       jointness of DOD's planning,
                                                                                                                                                       requirements determination,
                                                                                                                                                       and operations.


Force structure: Are DOD's     Congress continues to be concerned about the adequacy of    ï¿½Assess whether DOD has an appropriate mix of combat and    ï¿½Assessment of key combat and
forces organized efficiently   DOD's planned force structure. The size and composition of  support forces to implement the national military           support missions.
and effectively to implement   the force will be a key topic in the quadrennial defense    strategy.
the national military          review. Efforts to size and organize DOD's forces more                                                                  ï¿½Potential for consolidating
strategy?                      efficiently and eliminate overlapping capabilities are      ï¿½Identify opportunities for achieving savings by            functions among/within
                               becoming more important as DOD seeks to modernize its       organizing forces more efficiently or consolidating key     services.
                               forces and achieve long-term readiness within expected      functions shared by more than one service, component, or
                               budgets.                                                    command.                                                    ï¿½Opportunities for reshaping
                                                                                                                                                       role and structure of reserve
                                                                                           ï¿½Assess the active/reserve mix and potential to place       forces.
                                                                                           greater emphasis on less costly reserve forces.
                                                                                                                                                       ï¿½Service requirements for
                                                                                           ï¿½ Evaluate the basis for the services' stated requirements  active military personnel.
                                                                                           for military, civilian, and reserve personnel.

Budget analysis: Do budgets    There is widespread concern in Congress about the adequacy  ï¿½Assess whether DOD's budgets are based on accurate data    ï¿½Full disclosure of budget
for national security          of funding for defense priorities, such as modern weapon    and sound estimates with lower program and societal costs.  assumptions and estimates.
programs accurately reflect    systems. DOD is looking to fund its modernization plan
the projected costs of DOD     within the defense budget through various means, including  ï¿½Assess whether DOD's financial plan and budget execution   ï¿½Analyses of defense
programs?                      reducing its infrastructure. Congress is unsure whether     match its priorities.                                       infrastructure and
                               ongoing initiatives will achieve needed savings for                                                                     appropriations accounts.
                               modernization.                                              ï¿½Identify the trends in DOD's budget and assess the
                                                                                           implications of those trends.                               ï¿½Comparison of spending plans
                                                                                                                                                       and stated defense
                                                                                                                                                       priorities.

Intelligence: Is the U.S.      The United States spends tens of billions of dollars each   ï¿½Determine whether unnecessary duplication exists between   ï¿½Consistency of force
intelligence community         year on intelligence programs, most of which were           intelligence organizations and programs.                    structure and weapon needs
adequately addressing the      developed during the Cold War years. The intelligence                                                                   with threat estimates.
changed threat and new         community is continuing to undergo major changes because    ï¿½Evaluate the accuracy of intelligence estimates used to
requirements?                  of the changing post Cold War security environment.         support force structure and weapon acquisitions.            ï¿½Intelligence support for
                                                                                                                                                       peace operations.
                                                                                           ï¿½Assess the role of intelligence agencies in supporting
                                                                                           new missions.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TABLE II:  PLANNED MAJOR WORK
============================================================ Chapter 3

Issue                    Planned Major Job Starts
-----------------------  ---------------------------------------------
Strategy implementation  ï¿½Review of DOD's Quadrennial Defense Review.
                         ï¿½Assess DOD's progress in achieving jointness
                         under the Goldwater-Nichols Act.
                         ï¿½Analysis of U.S. information warfare
                         strategies.
                         ï¿½Review of U.S. strategies for critical
                         infrastructure protection.


Force structure          ï¿½Requirements for Army combat forces.
                         ï¿½Assessment of DOD's Deep Attack Weapons Mix
                         Study.
                         ï¿½Reviews of Air Force, Army, and Navy
                         requirements for active military personnel.
                         ï¿½Capping report on military and civilian end
                         strength issues.
                         ï¿½Review of military headquarters force.


Budget analysis          ï¿½Comparison of Fiscal Year 97 and Fiscal Year
                         98 Future Years Defense Programs.
                         ï¿½Analysis of Bosnia peace operation costs.
                         ï¿½Trends in budget and obligation data in
                         DOD's operations and maintenance account.
                         ï¿½Review of DOD's infrastructure reduction
                         efforts.
                         ï¿½Future Years Defense Program analysis of
                         central training and force management
                         activities.
                         ï¿½Future Years Defense Program analysis of
                         acquisition workforce.

Intelligence             ï¿½Reviews of selected intelligence programs as
                         congressional interests dictate.
----------------------------------------------------------------------

TABLE III:  GAO CONTACTS
============================================================ Chapter 4


      DIRECTOR
-------------------------------------------------------- Chapter 4:0.1

Richard Davis (202) 512-3504


      ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR
-------------------------------------------------------- Chapter 4:0.2

Carol Schuster (202)512-3958


      ASSISTANT DIRECTORS
-------------------------------------------------------- Chapter 4:0.3

Marvin Casterline
Davi D'Agostino
Fred Dziadek
Jerry Herley
Wendy Jaffe
Sharon Pickup
Steven Sternlieb
Janet St.  Laurent
Gary Weeter

*** End of document. ***