NPR's Savings: Claimed Agency Savings Cannot All Be Attributed to NPR
(Letter Report, 07/23/1999, GAO/GGD-99-120).

The National Performance Review (NPR) has claimed about $137 billion in
savings from its efforts to reinvent the federal government. However,
this amount includes savings from agency-specific recommendations that
could not be fully attributed to NPR's efforts. In general, the savings
estimates GAO reviewed could not be replicated, and there was no way to
substantiate the savings claimed. GAO also found that some savings were
overstated because the Office of Management and Budget counted savings
twice and two of the estimates were reported incorrectly, resulting in
claims that were understated.

--------------------------- Indexing Terms -----------------------------

 REPORTNUM:  GGD-99-120
     TITLE:  NPR's Savings: Claimed Agency Savings Cannot All Be
	     Attributed to NPR
      DATE:  07/23/1999
   SUBJECT:  Cost control
	     Future budget projections
	     Statistical methods
	     Deficit reduction
	     Financial analysis
	     Budget outlays
	     Budget administration
	     Reengineering (management)
	     Budget cuts

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    United States General Accounting Office GAO               Report
    to the Chairman, Committee on Government Reform House of
    Representatives July 1999         NPR's SAVINGS Claimed Agency
    Savings Cannot All Be Attributed to NPR GAO/GGD-99-120 United
    States General Accounting Office
    General Government Division Washington, D.C.  20548 B-282850 July
    23, 1999 The Honorable Dan Burton Chairman, Committee on
    Government Reform House of Representatives Dear Mr. Chairman: As
    you requested, this report discusses savings claims from the
    National Performance Review, which has been renamed the National
    Partnership for Reinventing Government (for both of which we use
    the acronym NPR) and the methodologies that the Office of
    Management and Budget (OMB) used in estimating these claims. NPR
    claimed that about $137 billion in savings has resulted from its
    efforts to reinvent the federal government, including about $34.3
    billion in savings that is not expected to be realized until
    fiscal years 1999 and 2000. Of the $137 billion in estimated
    savings, about $44.3 billion was claimed from recommendations that
    were targeted toward individual agencies. About $67.5 billion was
    claimed from recommendations designed to be implemented
    governmentwide, and another $24.9 billion was claimed from items
    not originated by NPR but, according to NPR, were consistent with
    the principles of reinventing government. Our objective was to
    describe and assess how OMB estimated savings from selected NPR
    recommendations targeted toward individual agencies. We reviewed
    recommendations representing over two-thirds of the $44.3 billion
    in savings that NPR claimed had been achieved from its
    recommendations to individual federal agencies.  Specifically, we
    examined the savings estimates for two recommendations each from
    three agencies: the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), the
    Department of Energy (DOE), and the National Aeronautics and Space
    Administration (NASA). (Appendixes I through VI contain detailed
    information on the six recommendations.)  The claims we reviewed
    at these three agencies constituted about 22 percent of the total
    estimated savings from NPR. As agreed with your office, we did not
    determine the amount of savings NPR should have claimed but rather
    focused on describing how OMB estimated savings from agency-
    specific recommendations, specifically these six recommendations.
    NPR claimed savings from agency-specific recommendations that
    could Results in Brief                    not be fully attributed
    to its efforts. OMB generally did not distinguish Page 1
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings B-282850 NPR's contributions from
    other initiatives or factors that influenced budget reductions at
    the agencies we reviewed. Therefore, the relationship between the
    recommended action and the savings claimed from the
    recommendations we reviewed was not clear. For example, OMB
    attributed all $8.5 billion of expected reductions to NASA's
    budget for fiscal years 1996 through 2000 directly to NPR's
    recommendation to reinvent NASA but did not account for other
    factors that influenced NASA's budget during this period.  Such
    factors included ongoing NASA management reform initiatives
    undertaken separately from the NPR and budgetary spending caps. To
    estimate the savings from the agency-specific recommendations, OMB
    said it used the same types of procedures and analytic techniques
    that have long been used in developing the President's budget.
    These procedures and techniques are intended to support point-in-
    time budget estimates that are based on policies and economic
    forecasts in effect at a given time. As our previous reviews of
    budget estimates have shown, it is difficult to reconstruct the
    specific assumptions used and track savings for estimates produced
    several years ago.1 Moreover, we have reported that it is often
    impossible to isolate the impacts of particular proposals or
    recommendations on actual savings achieved due to the multiple
    factors involved. OMB relied on these point-in-time estimates
    rather than attempting to measure actual savings. OMB last updated
    its estimates in 1997, so any changes that have occurred since
    then are not reflected in NPR's claimed savings. We identified two
    instances where OMB counted at least part of the estimated savings
    twice. OMB counted the same $770 million in estimated savings for
    two different NPR initiatives-once for agency-specific changes
    (from reorganizing USDA) and again as part of a NPR governmentwide
    initiative to reduce the size of the federal workforce. OMB also
    counted some savings twice-potentially up to $1.4 billion in
    estimated savings-for two NPR recommendations we reviewed, one
    made in 1993 to strengthen and restructure NASA management and
    another made in 1995 to reinvent NASA. Therefore, the total
    estimated savings from the USDA and NASA recommendations were
    overstated. For one recommendation where OMB and the Congressional
    Budget Office (CBO) both estimated savings, we found that
    offsetting program costs may not have been fully included in OMB's
    estimates. In estimating savings that 1 NPR Savings Estimates
    (GAO/GGD/AIMD-96-149R, July 24, 1996) and Budget Process:  Issues
    Concerning the 1990 Reconciliation Act (GAO/AIMD-95-3, Oct. 7,
    1994). Page 2
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings B-282850 resulted from personnel
    reductions at USDA (part of the NPR recommendation to reorganize
    USDA), OMB and CBO considered different offsetting costs and
    arrived at different estimates, with CBO's estimate being $324
    million less than OMB's $770 million estimate. According to CBO,
    it assumed that severance benefits and relocation costs would
    reduce the potential savings, while OMB assumed that the agency
    could absorb those costs. Consistent with OMB's normal budget
    practices, OMB examiners generally did not retain documentation
    when estimating NPR savings. The program examiners were unable to
    document estimates for four of the six recommendations we
    reviewed, constituting $21.8 billion in savings claims. Instead,
    the OMB examiners attempted to reconstruct how they thought the
    savings had been estimated through approximating rather than
    replicating savings estimates. OMB had documentation for two of
    the recommendations we reviewed. However, we found that the
    savings were reported incorrectly, understating NPR's estimated
    savings for those two recommendations by about $1.9 billion. The
    administration launched NPR in March 1993, when President Clinton
    Background    announced a 6-month review of the federal government
    to be led by Vice President Gore. The first NPR report was
    released in September 1993 and made recommendations intended to
    make the government "work better and cost less."2 The first NPR
    phase, called NPR I, included recommendations to reinvent
    individual agencies' programs and organizations. It also included
    governmentwide recommendations for (1) reducing the size of the
    federal bureaucracy, (2) reducing procurement costs through
    streamlining, (3) reengineering processes through the better use
    of information technology, and (4) reducing administrative costs.
    The estimates for NPR I savings covered fiscal years 1994 through
    1999. Vice President Gore launched the second NPR phase (called
    NPR II) in December 1994 and reported on this phase's savings
    estimates in September 1995.3 According to NPR, this second phase
    expanded the agenda for governmental reform. NPR II efforts
    focused on identifying additional programs that could be
    reinvented, terminated, or privatized, as well as on reinventing
    the federal regulatory process. The estimates for NPR II savings
    covered fiscal years 1996 through 2000. 2 From Red Tape to
    Results: Creating a Government That Works Better and Costs Less,
    report of the National Performance Review, Vice President Al Gore,
    September 7, 1993. 3Common Sense Government: Works Better and
    Costs Less, third report of the National Performance Review, Vice
    President Al Gore, September 7, 1995. Page 3
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings B-282850 As shown in table I, NPR
    claimed estimated savings of $82.2 billion from NPR I
    recommendations. NPR similarly reported that $29.6 billion had
    been "locked into place" from program changes in individual
    agencies under NPR II. Table 1: Estimated Savings Claimed
    Source of estimated savings                        Amount of
    estimated savings claimed from NPR Recommendations
    (in billions) a NPR I Reducing the size of the bureaucracy
    $54.8 Reducing procurement costs and
    12.7 reengineering information technology Program and
    organizational changes in individual agencies
    14.7 Subtotal of estimated savings from NPR I
    82.2 NPR II Program changes in individual agencies
    29.6 Total estimated savings claimed from
    $111.8 NPR I and II recommendations aOMB estimated savings for NPR
    I in 1993 and for NPR II in 1995. It updated its savings database
    in 1996 and again in 1997. Sources: NPR's web page (www.npr.gov),
    as of October 15, 1997, and OMB data. In addition to the $111.8
    billion NPR claimed from the NPR I and II recommendations, NPR
    claimed $24.9 billion in estimated savings based on reinvention
    principles. These additional claimed savings included, for
    example, $23.1 billion from the Federal Communications
    Commission's auctions of wireless licenses. This $24.9 billion
    brings the total amount of reinvention savings claimed by NPR to
    about $137 billion. This $137 billion savings figure is the one
    NPR most commonly cites as the savings it has achieved. NPR relied
    on OMB to estimate the savings it claimed from its NPR I and II
    recommendations. OMB's program examiners were responsible for
    developing the estimates in their role as focal points for all
    matters pertaining to their specific assignment area. One of the
    examiners' major duties is to oversee the formulation and
    execution of the budget process. They are also expected to perform
    legislative, economic, policy, program, organizational, and
    management analyses. OMB made the initial estimates for the 1993
    and 1995 NPR reports and updated its database on the savings
    claimed in the summers of 1996 and 1997. These updates, according
    to an OMB official, were primarily to ensure that all the
    estimates for recommendations that NPR considered implemented were
    included in the total amount of savings claimed. Page 4
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings B-282850 To describe and assess how
    OMB estimated the savings from NPR, we Scope and        focused on
    three agencies (USDA, DOE, and NASA), where relatively large
    Methodology      savings were claimed and that provided a variety
    of types of actions taken. At each agency, we selected two
    recommendations with claims of at least $700 million in savings
    each. The six recommendations we reviewed accounted for $10.45
    billion of the $14.7 billion claimed from changes in individual
    agencies under NPR I and $19.17 billion of the $29.6 billion
    claimed from NPR II savings. Overall, the claimed savings from the
    recommendations we reviewed accounted for over two-thirds of the
    $44.3 billion in savings claimed from NPR's recommendations to
    individual agencies and 22 percent of the total amount of NPR's
    savings claims. Following is a listing of the six recommendations
    we reviewed and the estimated savings, in millions of dollars,
    that NPR claimed for each of those recommendations. (See apps. I
    through VI for detailed information on each of the
    recommendations.) *  reorganize USDA to better accomplish its
    mission, streamline its field structure, and improve service to
    its customers ($770 million); *  end USDA's wool and mohair
    subsidy ($702 million); *  redirect DOE laboratories to post-Cold
    War priorities ($6,996 million); *  realign DOE, including
    terminating the Clean Coal Technology Program; privatizing the
    naval petroleum reserves in Elk Hills, CA; selling uranium no
    longer needed for national defense purposes; reducing costs in
    DOE's applied research programs; improving program effectiveness
    and efficiencies in environmental management of nuclear waste
    cleanups; and strategically aligning headquarters and field
    operations ($10,649 million); *  strengthen and restructure NASA
    management, both overall management and management of the space
    station program ($1,982 million); and *  reinvent NASA, including
    eliminating duplication and overlap between NASA centers,
    transferring functions to universities or the private sector,
    reducing civil service involvement with and expecting more
    accountability from NASA contractors, emphasizing objective
    contracting, using private sector capabilities, changing NASA
    regulations, and returning NASA to its status as a research and
    development center ($8,519 million). Since these recommendations
    are not representative of all NPR recommendations, our findings
    cannot be generalized to apply to other savings claimed by NPR. As
    agreed with your office, we did not independently estimate the
    actual amount of savings achieved from these six recommendations.
    Page 5                                            GAO/GGD-99-120
    NPR's Savings B-282850 We interviewed NPR and OMB officials about
    how they estimated and claimed savings and also requested relevant
    documentation. We also examined a database OMB maintained showing
    the amount of savings achieved from the recommendations. The NPR I
    data covered fiscal years 1994 through 1999, and the NPR II data
    covered fiscal years 1996 through 2000. Both sets of data were
    most recently updated in the summer of 1997. We reviewed NPR data,
    including a description of the status of the recommendations and
    reports containing background information, on the three agencies
    and the relevant recommendations where available. We also
    interviewed officials from these agencies about the savings OMB
    estimated for the recommendations we reviewed. We conducted our
    review in Washington, D.C., from April 1998 through February 1999
    in accordance with generally accepted government auditing
    standards. We requested comments on a draft of this report from
    OMB, the Departments of Agriculture and Energy, and NASA. These
    comments are discussed at the end of this letter. OMB generally
    did not distinguish between NPR's and other contributions The
    Relationship              for the agency-specific recommendations
    we reviewed. NPR attempted to Between NPR                   build
    on prior management reforms and operated in an atmosphere where
    other factors, such as agencies' ongoing reforms as well as the
    political Recommendations and environment, also influenced actions
    taken to address NPR's Agency Savings Claims recommendations. The
    relationship between the recommendations we Was Not Clear
    reviewed and the savings claimed was not clear because OMB
    attributed a broad range of changes to NPR. Savings estimated from
    the recommendation to reinvent NASA illustrate how OMB attributed
    a broad range of changes to NPR and did not distinguish NPR's
    contribution from other factors. To estimate savings for that
    recommendation, OMB consolidated seven somewhat related
    recommendations into one savings estimate of $8.519 billion. OMB
    estimated savings by totaling expected reductions to NASA's entire
    budget for fiscal years 1996 through 2000. According to a NASA
    official, NASA's funding during this period was limited as the
    result of several initiatives, including direction from the NASA
    administrator that began before NPR was initiated and
    congressionally imposed spending caps. Nevertheless, OMB
    attributed all of the $8.519 billion in savings from estimated
    reductions in the entire NASA budget to NPR. OMB followed similar
    procedures in estimating savings from the other NPR recommendation
    concerning NASA that we reviewed-the recommendation to strengthen
    and restructure NASA management. The Page 6
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings B-282850 examiner estimated savings
    of $1.982 billion on the basis of expected reductions in funding
    levels for one of NASA's three budget accounts for fiscal years
    1994 through 1999. The estimated savings were based on
    expectations for lower levels of budget authority due to the
    combined effects of several factors, such as budgetary spending
    caps and ongoing NASA management reform efforts. In the case of
    the NPR recommendation for DOE to shift its laboratory facilities'
    priorities in response to conditions that accompanied the end of
    the Cold War, NPR recognized that changes were already under way.
    For example, as part of this recommendation, NPR called for DOE to
    "continue" the reduction of funding for nuclear weapons
    production, research, testing programs, and infrastructure.
    Considering the comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty agreements
    and other factors, it was apparent that the DOE laboratories'
    priorities would have changed regardless of whether NPR had made
    the recommendation. However, as figure 1 shows, when OMB estimated
    savings from this recommendation, it credited all savings from
    estimated reductions in the weapons activity budget account
    ($6.996 billion) to NPR. Page 7
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings B-282850 Figure 1: Savings OMB
    Estimated From NPR's Recommendation to Redirect DOE Laboratories'
    Priorities Note: OMB used budget data based on actual numbers
    through fiscal year 1997 and budget estimates for fiscal years
    1998 and 1999. Source: GAO analysis of OMB data. Similarly,
    efforts related to NPR's recommendation to reorganize USDA were
    under way prior to or simultaneously with the NPR recommendation.
    These efforts included USDA reorganization plans and the
    introduction of legislation to streamline USDA. For example, the
    Federal Crop Insurance Reform and Department of Agriculture
    Reorganization Act of 1994 (P.L. 103-354, Oct. 13, 1994), required
    USDA to reduce the number of federal staff years by at least 7,500
    by the end of fiscal year 1999. Therefore, USDA's reorganization
    could be viewed as part of a continuous management improvement
    effort. OMB attributed the entire $770 million in estimated
    savings it reported from USDA's staffing reductions to NPR. In
    contrast, the relationship between the recommended action and the
    estimated savings was relatively straightforward for the NPR
    recommendation to end USDA's wool and mohair subsidy program. In
    that Page 8
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings B-282850 case, program costs,
    primarily subsidy amounts that were reduced by phasing out the
    program and subsequently eliminated by ending the program, were
    counted as savings. According to OMB, the procedures and
    techniques it used to estimate NPR OMB Used Standard
    savings were those that it commonly follows in developing the
    President's Budget Estimating              budget. Therefore the
    NPR savings estimates were to provide a "snapshot" showing the
    amount of savings OMB expected would result from the Techniques to
    Estimate recommendations. For example, in 1993, OMB projected
    savings from the Savings                        NPR recommendation
    to strengthen and restructure NASA management covering fiscal
    years 1994 through 1999. OMB characterized these estimated savings
    as achieved in 1996, and NPR has continued to report these
    estimated savings (based on the 1993 estimate) as achieved. More
    generally, OMB's savings estimates for agency-specific
    recommendations included about $34.3 billion in savings that were
    not expected to be realized until fiscal years 1999 and 2000. OMB
    last updated its estimates in 1997, so any changes that have
    occurred since then are not reflected in NPR's claimed savings.
    OMB's budget estimating procedures and techniques use policies and
    economic forecasts in effect at a given time. The estimates OMB
    prepared for NPR initiatives involved projecting changes from a
    given baseline and identifying the difference as savings. OMB said
    that it generally used a fiscal year 1994 current services
    baseline for the NPR I agency-specific recommendations and a
    fiscal year 1996 Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act baseline for
    the NPR II recommendations. OMB said, however, that in both cases,
    program examiners could use other savings baselines where the
    examiners believed it made better sense for a particular program
    or NPR recommendation. The OMB examiners also had latitude in
    determining the most appropriate analytical approach to use, based
    on their knowledge of the agency and the specific characteristics
    of the individual NPR recommendation. Our prior reviews of budget
    estimates have shown that it is difficult to reconstruct the
    specific assumptions used or to track savings for estimates
    produced several years ago. As we reported in 1996, once an
    estimate is prepared and time passes, it becomes difficult to
    retrace the original steps and reconstruct events in order to
    replicate the original estimate.4 Moreover, it is often difficult
    to isolate the impacts of particular proposals on actual savings
    achieved due to the multiple factors involved. In our 1994 report
    on issues concerning the 1990 Reconciliation Act, we found that it
    is 4 GAO/GGD/AIMD-96-149R, July 24, 1996. Page 9
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings B-282850 generally not possible to
    identify or track precise savings by isolating the budgetary
    effects of individual provisions from the effects of other factors
    such as intervening actions or subsequent legislation.5 In two
    instances, OMB counted some of the estimated savings NPR Some
    Estimated NPR              claimed twice. In the first instance,
    OMB counted the same estimated Savings Were Claimed savings on two
    different NPR I initiatives-once for agency-specific changes (from
    reorganizing USDA) and again as part of a NPR Twice
    governmentwide initiative to reduce the bureaucracy. In the second
    instance, OMB appears to have counted the same savings twice when
    separately estimating savings from the two NASA recommendations we
    reviewed. Therefore, the total estimated savings NPR claimed in
    both of these instances were overstated. OMB estimated that $770
    million in cost savings resulted from NPR's recommendation to
    reorganize USDA on the basis of workforce reductions. OMB also
    counted these workforce reductions when estimating the total of
    $54.8 billion in savings NPR claimed from its governmentwide
    initiative to reduce the size of the bureaucracy. While
    acknowledging that this occurred, OMB officials stated that the
    level of double counting appeared to be quite small in relation to
    total NPR savings-less than 1 percent of the total savings claimed
    from NPR recommendations. They said that the double counting was
    small because the recommendation to reorganize USDA was the only
    agency-specific recommendation with a significant staffing effect.
    However, OMB officials told us that they had not established a
    mechanism to prevent double counting from savings claimed for the
    agency-specific recommendations and from the governmentwide
    initiative. Officials from the other two agencies we reviewed-DOE
    and NASA-said that their staff also had been reduced and counted
    as part of the savings claimed for the agency-specific
    recommendations to streamline DOE and strengthen NASA management.
    Therefore, in the absence of OMB processes to guard against
    including savings from personnel reductions in both agency-
    specific and governmentwide savings claims, additional double
    counting of workforce reductions could have occurred. In the
    second instance, a portion of the estimated savings appears to
    have been counted twice for two NASA recommendations we reviewed,
    one from NPR I (to strengthen and restructure NASA management) and
    the other from NPR II (to reinvent NASA). Some of the actions NPR
    5 GAO/AIMD-95-3, Oct. 7, 1994. Page 10
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings B-282850 recommended, such as
    restructuring NASA centers, were components of both the NPR I and
    NPR II recommendations. The OMB examiner acknowledged that some of
    the savings could have been counted twice and that there was no
    mechanism to distinguish the sweeping changes that were occurring
    at NASA. She said that the NPR II recommendation built on the NPR
    I recommendation. NASA officials also said that they were not able
    to assign savings precisely to one recommendation or the other
    because the recommendations were similar and there was no clear
    demarcation where one ended and the other began. OMB estimated
    savings from the NPR I recommendation for fiscal years 1994
    through 1999 and from the NPR II recommendation for fiscal years
    1996 through 2000. Estimated savings from both recommendations
    were included when OMB aggregated total NPR-estimated savings. As
    figure 2 shows, a portion of the savings claimed from these two
    recommendations overlapped during fiscal years 1996 through 1999.
    For those years, claimed savings totaled about $7 billion (about
    $1.6 billion from the NPR I recommendation and about $5.4 billion
    from the NPR II recommendation). OMB appears to have counted some
    portion of that amount twice- potentially up to $1.4 billion. The
    NPR savings claims in these two instances were overstated. Page 11
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings B-282850 Figure 2:  Potential Overlap
    in Estimated Savings From NASA Recommendations a. No savings were
    claimed in 1994 for the NPR I recommendation. Source: GAO analysis
    of OMB estimates. OMB and CBO both estimated savings for the
    recommendation to Offsetting Costs May
    streamline USDA, and these estimates differed. While OMB estimated
    the Not Have Been Fully                     savings to be $770
    million, CBO's estimate was $446 million-a difference of $324
    million. We did not evaluate the differences between these
    Included                                estimates. However,
    according to a November 15, 1993, letter from the CBO director to
    the then House Minority Leader, CBO's estimate differed from OMB's
    ". . . with respect to the costs associated with severance
    benefits and relocation. While the administration assumes that
    agency baseline budgets are large enough to absorb these costs,
    CBO assumes that the costs would reduce the potential savings. The
    administration also estimates larger savings in employee overhead
    costs." According to CBO, due to the differences in the
    consideration of offsetting costs, OMB's estimate for the 5-year
    budget period (fiscal years 1994 through 1998) exceeded CBO's
    estimate by $324 million. OMB provided documentation showing that,
    in fiscal year 1996 and again in fiscal year 1997, OMB factored
    "up-front" costs of $40 million into the Page 12
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings B-282850 estimates it reported. The
    responsible OMB branch chief stated that although he did not
    recall what the up-front costs for this recommendation
    specifically encompassed, these costs typically consist of buyouts
    (i.e., financial incentives of up to $25,000 for employees who
    voluntarily leave the federal government), lease breakage costs,
    and moving expenses. According to OMB, consistent with its normal
    budget practices, OMB OMB Lacked            examiners generally
    did not retain documentation for NPR savings Documentation and
    estimates. The budget examiners were unable to document estimates
    for four of the six recommendations we reviewed, constituting
    $21.8 billion in Reported Estimates    savings claims. Instead,
    the OMB examiners attempted to reconstruct how Incorrectly
    they thought the savings had been estimated through approximating
    rather than replicating savings estimates. OMB did, however,
    provide documentation on the estimated savings for two of the six
    recommendations we reviewed. These recommendations were to
    reorganize USDA (with estimated savings of $770 million) and to
    redirect the DOE laboratories' priorities (with estimated savings
    of $6.996 billion). Even when documentation for the NPR savings
    estimates was available, OMB could not always provide complete
    information about how the estimates were calculated. For example,
    the responsible OMB branch chief could not specifically remember
    what comprised the up-front costs shown on documentation for the
    recommendation to reorganize USDA. The NPR savings claims for both
    cases where OMB provided documentation were reported incorrectly.
    These errors led NPR to understate the estimated savings from
    those recommendations. One of the errors involved a math mistake
    that affected the amount of savings claimed. When updating the
    estimate, a subtraction error led to $10 million in estimated
    savings being omitted from the total claimed for the
    recommendation to redirect the DOE laboratories' priorities. The
    other error occurred because savings of $1.859 billion that the
    examiner estimated would occur from the recommendation to
    reorganize USDA for fiscal years 1997 through 1999 were not
    reported. NPR claimed savings from agency-specific recommendations
    that could Conclusions           not be fully attributed to its
    efforts. In general, the savings estimates we reviewed could not
    be replicated, and there was no way to substantiate the savings
    claimed.  We also found that some savings were overstated because
    OMB counted savings twice, and two of the estimates were reported
    incorrectly, resulting in claims that were understated. Page 13
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings B-282850 We requested comments on a
    draft of this report from the Director of Agency Comments and OMB,
    the Secretaries of Agriculture and Energy, and the NASA Our
    Evaluation                Administrator, or their designees. On
    June 14, 1999, we met with OMB staff who provided clarifying and
    technical comments on the draft report. We incorporated their
    suggestions in this report where appropriate. We obtained written
    comments on the draft report from the Director of USDA's Office of
    Budget and Program Analysis. He said that a loan program for
    mohair producers established in fiscal year 1999 provides
    substantially different incentives than the original wool and
    mohair program. His letter stated that the costs associated with
    the 1999 program did not negate the savings derived from
    eliminating the earlier program. As a result, we eliminated our
    discussion concerning this loan program from the report. We also
    obtained written comments on the draft report from DOE's
    Controller. She said that OMB's use of the weapons activity budget
    account to estimate savings from the recommendation to redirect
    the energy laboratories to post-Cold War priorities is more
    reasonable than is implied by the report. She explained that while
    the title of the NPR recommendation suggests that only
    laboratories would be affected by the recommendation, related NPR
    information indicates that the recommendation affected facilities
    beyond just the laboratories. We added language to the report
    recognizing that the recommendation, although focused on the
    laboratories, did include actions to reduce the production and
    testing of nuclear weapons. Secondly, she said that DOE had
    progressed beyond the status NPR reported for the initiatives
    included in the recommendation to realign DOE, and we included the
    updated information in appendix IV. On June 2, 1999, a NASA
    official reported that NASA had no comments on our draft report.
    As agreed, unless you announce the contents of this report
    earlier, we plan no further distribution until 30 days from the
    date of this letter. At that time, we will send copies of this
    report to Representative Henry A. Waxman, Ranking Minority Member
    of the House Government Reform Committee and to Senator Fred
    Thompson, Chairman, and Senator Joseph I. Lieberman, Ranking
    Minority Member, of the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee. We
    will also send copies to the Honorable Jacob J. Lew, Director of
    OMB; Mr. Morley Winograd, Director of NPR; the Honorable Daniel R.
    Glickman, Secretary of Agriculture; the Honorable Bill Richardson,
    Secretary of Energy; and the Honorable Daniel S. Goldin, Page 14
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings B-282850 Administrator of NASA. We
    will also make copies available to others on request. Major
    contributors to this report appear in appendix VII. Please contact
    me or Susan Ragland, Assistant Director, on (202) 512-8676 if you
    have questions about this report. Sincerely yours, J. Christopher
    Mihm Associate Director Federal Management and Workforce Issues
    Page 15                                          GAO/GGD-99-120
    NPR's Savings Contents 1 Letter 18 Appendix I               NPR
    Recommendation                                               18
    Reorganize USDA          Key Actions Reported
    18 Methodology Used to Estimate Savings
    18 19 Appendix II              NPR Recommendation
    19 End the Wool and         Key Actions Reported
    19 Methodology Used to Estimate Savings
    19 Mohair Subsidy 20 Appendix III             NPR Recommendation
    20 Redirect DOE's           Key Actions Reported
    20 Methodology Used to Estimate Savings
    20 Laboratories to Post- Cold War Priorities 21 Appendix IV
    NPR Recommendation
    21 Summary of Savings       Key Actions Reported
    21 Methodology Used to Estimate Savings
    21 From Realigning DOE 22 Appendix V               NPR
    Recommendation                                               22
    Strengthen and           Key Actions Reported
    22 Methodology Used to Estimate Savings
    22 Restructure NASA Management 23 Appendix VI              NPR
    Recommendation                                               23
    Reinvent NASA            Key Actions Reported
    23 Methodology Used to Estimate Savings
    23 Page 16                                 GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's
    Savings Contents Appendix VII
    24 GAO Contacts and Staff Acknowledgments Table 1: Estimated
    Savings Claimed from NPR
    4 Tables                Recommendations Table I.1: Claimed Savings
    18 Table II.1: Claimed Savings
    19 Table III.1: Claimed Savings
    20 Table IV.1: Claimed Savings
    21 Table V.1: Claimed Savings
    22 Table VI.1: Claimed Savings
    23 Figure 1: Savings OMB Estimated From NPR's
    8 Figures               Recommendation to Redirect DOE
    Laboratories' Priorities Figure 2:  Potential Overlap in Estimated
    Savings From                              12 NASA Recommendations
    Abbreviations CBO             Congressional Budget Office DOE
    Department of Energy FTE             full-time equivalent NASA
    National Aeronautics and Space Administration NPR
    National Performance Review OMB             Office of Management
    and Budget PMC             Program Management Council R&D
    research and development USDA            United States Department
    of Agriculture Page 17
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings Appendix I Reorganize USDA In
    September 1993, NPR recommended that USDA be reorganized to better
    NPR Recommendation accomplish its mission, streamline its field
    structure, and improve service to its customers. NPR had
    recommended that USDA reorganize its structure, submit legislation
    to enact the reorganization, and review its field office structure
    to eliminate and restructure those elements no longer
    appropriate.1 NPR reported that USDA has made progress towards
    reorganizing at its Key Actions Reported
    headquarters and field office structure. USDA submitted
    reorganization legislation, and Congress enacted the Federal Crop
    Insurance Reform and Department of Agriculture Reorganization Act
    of 1994 (P.L. 103-354) on October 13, 1994. The reorganization at
    the headquarters level has reduced the number of agencies from 43
    to 29 and has established 7 "mission areas" to carry out program
    responsibilities.2 USDA also implemented a field office
    streamlining plan that consolidates the county-based agencies to
    provide services to customers from all agencies at one location.
    This effort is to result in streamlining the number of field
    office locations from over 3,700 to 2,550. As of May 1998, the
    total number of field office locations had been reduced to about
    2,700. Table I.1: Claimed Savings Dollars in millions
    1994    1995                         1996
    1997                          1998                         1999
    Total O M B e s t i m a t e1 3 0 3 5 5 2 8 5000 7 7 0 Source: OMB,
    revised estimates as of summer 1996. OMB officials stated that
    savings for this recommendation were derived Methodology Used to
    solely from the number of full-time equivalent (FTE) reductions
    USDA Estimate Savings                      made.3 OMB took the
    difference between the fiscal year 1994 current services baseline
    and actual and updated reductions and then multiplied that amount
    by an average salary that was comprised of both headquarters and
    field office salary data. From that amount, OMB subtracted
    offsetting costs. OMB officials provided documentation on how
    these savings were estimated. 1 USDA's structure consists of
    headquarters, regional, state, and county-based offices. 2 USDA is
    composed of various component agencies, including the Forest
    Service, the Farm Service Agency, and the Natural Resources
    Conservation Service.  Mission areas are groupings of agencies at
    USDA that perform a common function. For example, the Natural
    Resources and Environment Mission Area is comprised of the Forest
    Service and the Natural Resources Conservation Service. 3 FTEs are
    used to measure civilian employment, and 1 FTE is equal to 1
    workyear of 2,080 hours. Page 18
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings Appendix II End the Wool and Mohair
    Subsidy In September 1993, NPR recommended that USDA end this
    subsidy NPR Recommendation program, which was implemented in 1954
    to increase domestic production of wool by providing direct
    payments to farmers. At that time, Congress declared wool a
    strategic commodity to reduce dependence on foreign fibers, which
    was caused by imports needed during World War II and the Korean
    conflict. NPR said that this subsidy was outdated, since wool was
    no longer a strategic commodity. NPR reported that this subsidy
    had been eliminated as a result of Key Actions Reported
    legislation amending the National Wool Act of 1954 (P.L. 103-130,
    November 1, 1993). The act mandated the reduction of subsidies
    during fiscal years 1994 and 1995 and the elimination of subsidies
    for fiscal year 1996. Payments were reduced by 25 percent in
    fiscal year 1994, 50 percent in fiscal year 1995, and eliminated
    entirely beginning in fiscal year 1996. Table II.1: Claimed
    Savings Dollars in millions            1994    1995
    1996              1997               1998            1999
    Total OMB estimate                      0      47              103
    183                181             188            702 Source:
    OMB, revised estimates as of summer 1996. In response to our
    questions, although they were unable to provide Methodology Used
    to                    documentation on how savings were estimated,
    OMB generally could Estimate Savings
    reconstruct how savings would have been estimated. This involved
    subtracting the payments that farmers were receiving as a result
    of the subsidy reductions mandated in P.L.103-130 from the amount
    of subsidies that were projected to have been paid, had the
    legislation not been enacted, for fiscal years 1994 through 1999.
    OMB said that the source of the projected subsidy information was
    1993 data from the Commodity Credit Corporation, which analyzes
    budget projections and assumptions. Page 19
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings Appendix III Redirect DOE's
    Laboratories to Post-Cold War Priorities In 1993, NPR recommended
    that DOE shift laboratory facilities' priorities NPR
    Recommendation to accommodate conditions that accompanied the end
    of the Cold War- such as the dramatic decrease in the arms race
    and cutbacks in defense- related energy and nuclear research
    funding. NPR recommended, among other things, that DOE continue to
    reduce funding for nuclear weapons production, research, testing
    programs, and infrastructure that are needed to meet current
    defense requirements; develop a vision for the DOE laboratory
    complex; and encourage laboratory managers to work with the
    private sector on high-priority research and development (R&D)
    needs. NPR reported that DOE is restructuring and refocusing its
    laboratories by Key Actions Reported                   developing
    new strategic plans and implementing a science-based stockpile
    stewardship program. The stockpile stewardship program is designed
    to support the testing of nuclear weapons in a safe manner as
    directed by the comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty, which
    banned the production of nuclear weapons after the Cold War. DOE
    has also established the Laboratory Operations Board and the R&D
    Council. These organizations study the use of government/private
    partnerships to increase productivity of DOE R&D programs. Table
    III.1: Claimed Savings Dollars in millions        1994        1995
    1996              1997              1998             1999
    Total OMB estimate                    991    1,519           1,409
    1,077              1,000           1,000          6,996 Source:
    OMB, revised estimates as of summer 1997. OMB calculated savings
    for redirecting energy laboratories to post-Cold Methodology Used
    to                    War priorities by taking the difference in
    the weapons activities budget Estimate Savings
    account between the fiscal year 1994 current services baseline and
    the actual appropriations for that fiscal year and counting the
    savings through fiscal year 1999. The DOE laboratories' budget is
    subsumed within the weapons activities account of the President's
    budget. This account includes R&D to support the safety and
    reliability of the nuclear weapons stockpile as well as personnel
    and contractual services for certain defense programs' missions.
    OMB considered DOE laboratories as well as the entire weapons
    complex, of which the laboratories are a component, when
    estimating savings for this recommendation. OMB officials provided
    documentation on how these savings were estimated. Page 20
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings Appendix IV Summary of Savings From
    Realigning DOE In 1995, NPR had six recommendations concerning
    realignment of DOE. NPR Recommendation NPR consolidated reporting
    on these recommendations for purposes of developing savings
    estimates. These recommendations were to (1) terminate the Clean
    Coal Technology Program; (2) privatize the naval petroleum
    reserves in Elk Hills, CA; (3) sell uranium no longer needed for
    national defense purposes; (4) reduce costs in DOE's applied
    research programs; (5) improve program effectiveness and
    efficiencies in environmental management of nuclear waste
    cleanups; and (6) strategically align headquarters and field
    operations. NPR reported that DOE has implemented actions
    consistent with these Key Actions Reported
    recommendations. For instance, NPR reported that DOE is planning
    to terminate the Clean Coal Technology Program by September 2000.
    DOE has reorganized the department by implementing the Strategic
    Alignment Initiative, which is intended to reduce staffing,
    support service contracting, and travel costs; streamline the
    National Environmental Policy Act; increase asset sales; and
    improve information resources management. DOE has also established
    performance measures to improve effectiveness of nuclear waste
    cleanups, developed a plan for selling uranium reserves, and is
    developing ways to reduce administrative costs in DOE's research
    programs. More recently, DOE noted that the Elk Hills Naval
    Petroleum Reserves were  sold in February 1998 for $3.1 billion.
    Similarly, in fiscal year 1998, $0.4 billion was realized due to
    DOE's uranium being a part of the sale of the United States
    Enrichment Corporation. Table IV.1: Claimed Savings Dollars in
    millions       1996    1997             1998              1999
    2000                            Total OMB estimate
    1,673    2,244           2,244             2,244
    2,244                         10,649 Source: OMB, revised
    estimates as of summer 1996. OMB could not reconstruct
    calculations for the savings estimated for this Methodology Used
    to               recommendation. Estimate Savings Page 21
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings Appendix V Strengthen and Restructure
    NASA Management In September 1993, NPR recommended that NASA take
    a number of NPR Recommendation restructuring steps, both in
    overall management and in the management of the space station
    program. It recommended that NASA, among other things,
    aggressively complete its overhaul of space station program
    management, implement the management principles developed for the
    redesigned space station program, and formally institute its
    Program Management Council (PMC), an organization charged with
    improving NASA's internal management processes. NPR reported that
    NASA has taken and is continuing to take steps to Key Actions
    Reported               improve the management of the agency and
    the space station. According to NPR, NASA's overhaul of  space
    station program management was accomplished through enactment of
    the fiscal year 1995 Appropriations Act (P.L. 103-327, September
    28, 1994). Also, the PMC was established in June 1993 and is fully
    operational. Table V.1: Claimed Savings Dollars in millions
    1994      1995             1996              1997
    1998               1999           Total OMB estimate
    0     396              396                396               397
    397          1,982 Source: OMB, original estimated savings from
    September 1993. In response to our questions, OMB attempted to
    reconstruct how savings Methodology Used to                were
    estimated, but could not provide documentation to support its
    Estimate Savings                   calculation. OMB officials said
    the methodology they would have used to estimate  savings for this
    recommendation was to take the difference between the fiscal year
    1994 current services baseline and the actual appropriations for
    that fiscal year and count the savings through fiscal year 1999.
    Page 22
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings Appendix VI Reinvent NASA In 1995,
    NPR recommended that NASA be reinvented. This NPR Recommendation
    recommendation built on the earlier NPR recommendation to
    strengthen and restructure NASA management. OMB consolidated seven
    recommendations that related to reinventing NASA for developing
    savings estimates. These recommendations included (1) eliminating
    duplication and overlap between NASA centers; (2) transferring
    functions to universities or the private sector; (3) reducing
    civil service involvement with and expecting more accountability
    from NASA contractors; (4) emphasizing objective contracting; (5)
    using private sector capabilities; (6) changing NASA regulations;
    and (7) returning NASA to its status as a research and development
    agency. NPR reported that NASA has completed actions consistent
    with this Key Actions Reported                   consolidated
    recommendation. For instance, NPR reported that NASA has
    restructured its centers to eliminate overlap and duplication of
    functions and has implemented techniques, such as forming
    partnerships and outsourcing functions. NPR also reported that
    NASA was creating alliances with academic and industrial centers
    and consolidating all space shuttle operations management under a
    single, private sector prime contractor. In addition, NPR reported
    that NASA has implemented a performance-based contracting
    initiative. Table VI.1: Claimed Savings Dollars in millions
    1996           1997                 1998                 1999
    2000              Total OMB estimate                    226
    1,024                1,715                2,418
    3,136            8,519 Source: OMB, original estimated savings
    from September 1995. In response to our questions, OMB attempted
    to reconstruct how savings Methodology Used to
    were estimated, but could not provide documentation to support its
    Estimate Savings                       calculation. An OMB
    official said she took the difference between the fiscal year 1996
    current services baseline and the actual appropriations for that
    fiscal year and counted savings through fiscal year 2000. Page 23
    GAO/GGD-99-120 NPR's Savings Appendix VII GAO Contacts and Staff
    Acknowledgments J. Christopher Mihm, (202) 512-8676 GAO Contacts
    Susan Ragland, (202) 512-8486 In addition to those named above,
    Carole Buncher, Lauren Alpert, and Acknowledgments    Jenny Kao
    made key contributions to this report. Page 24
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