2000 Census: Information on Short- and Long-Form Response Rates
(Correspondence, 06/07/2000, GAO/GGD-00-127R).

Pursuant to a congressional request, GAO provided information on short-
and long-form questionnaire response rates, focusing on the: (1) 2000
Census; (2) 1998 Census Dress Rehearsal; (3) 1990 Census; and (4) 1988
Census Dress Rehearsal.

GAO noted that: (1) during the 1990 and 2000 Census cycles,
questionnaire response rates were higher for the short-form
questionnaire than for the long-form questionnaire; (2) however, the gap
between the two rates has generally widened over time; (3) for example,
the differential between the short- and long-form response rates ranged
from 5.1 percentage points to 8.7 percentage points during the 1988
Dress Rehearsal for the 1990 Census; (4) a decade later, during the
Dress Rehearsal for the 2000 Census, the differential ranged from 8.2
percentage points to 14.7 percentage points; (5) for the 2000 Census,
preliminary Bureau of the Census data show that the response rate
differential for the 2000 Census is 12.5 percentage points--over twice
that of the 1990 Census; (6) short- and long-form differential mail
return rates have increased over time; (7) during the 1998 Dress
Rehearsal, the Bureau mailed a second replacement questionnaire to all
housing units located in mailout/mailback areas; (8) the Bureau hoped
that the second questionnaire would help improve the response rate; and
(9) although response rates in both Dress Rehearsal sites increased
after the replacement mailing, the differential response rates between
the short- and long-form questionnaires did not change
significantly--decreasing by 2.5 percentage points and increasing by 0.1
percentage point.

--------------------------- Indexing Terms -----------------------------

 REPORTNUM:  GGD-00-127R
     TITLE:  2000 Census: Information on Short- and Long-Form Response
	     Rates
      DATE:  06/07/2000
   SUBJECT:  Census
	     Data collection
	     Reporting requirements
	     Population statistics
	     Surveys
	     Federal forms
IDENTIFIER:  South Carolina
	     Sacramento (CA)
	     2000 Decennial Census
	     1990 Decennial Census

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GAO/GGD-00-127R

United States General Accounting Office

(410576)

B-285274

June 7, 2000

The Honorable Dan Miller
Chairman, Subcommittee on the Census
Committee on Government Reform
House of Representatives

Subject:  2000 Census:  Information on Short- and Long-Form
Response Rates

Dear Mr. Chairman:

This letter responds to your request for information on
response rates for short- and long-form questionnaires in the
(1) 2000 Census, (2) 1998 Census Dress Rehearsal, (3) 1990
Census, and (4) 1988 Census Dress Rehearsal.  Our information
is based on historical data and 2000 Census preliminary
response rates from the Bureau of the Census and is contained
in the enclosure.

On May 17, 2000, we requested comments on a draft of this
letter from the Secretary of Commerce.  However, comments were
not provided in time to be included in this letter.  We
performed our work in April and May, 2000, in Washington,
D.C., in accordance with generally accepted government
auditing standards.

We are sending copies of this letter to Representative Carolyn
B. Maloney, Ranking Minority Member of this Subcommittee; the
Honorable William M. Daley, Secretary of Commerce; and the
Honorable Kenneth Prewitt, Director of the Bureau of the
Census.  Copies will be made available to others on request.
If you have any questions concerning this letter, please
contact me at (202) 512-8676.

Sincerely yours,

J. Christopher Mihm
Associate Director, Federal Management
  and Workforce Issues

Enclosure

Enclosure
Short- and Long-Form Mail Response and Mail Return
Rates

Short- and Long-Form Response Rate Differentials
Have Been Increasing
The questionnaire response rate provides an
indication of the scope of the Bureau's field
follow-up operation with nonresponding households.
The  response rate is defined as the percentage of
all forms mailed or left by enumerators that are
completed and mailed back by respondents.1
Although response rate data include housing units
that are later identified as vacant,
uninhabitable, or nonexistent during nonresponse
follow-up, such data provide a general indication
of the level of public cooperation close to Census
Day.

During the 1990 and 2000 Census cycles,
questionnaire response rates were higher for the
short-form questionnaire than for the long-form
questionnaire.  However, as shown in table 1, the
gap between the two rates has generally widened
over time.  For example, the differential between
the short- and long-form response rates ranged
from 5.1 percentage points to 8.7 percentage
points during the 1988 Dress Rehearsal for the
1990 Census.  A decade later, during the Dress
Rehearsal for the 2000 Census, the differential
ranged from 8.2 percentage points to 14.7
percentage points.  For the 2000 Census,
preliminary Bureau data show that, continuing this
trend, the response rate differential for the 2000
Census is 12.5 percentage points-over twice that
of the 1990 Census.

Table 1: Short- and Long-Form Questionnaire
Response Rates, by Census or Test
Census or test        Short form    Long Percentag
                                    form         e
                                             point
                                         different
                                               ial
2000 Census                66.6%   54.1%      12.5
(preliminary) a
1998 Dress                                        
Rehearsalb
    South Carolina          55.4    43.7      11.7
    Sacramento              55.4    40.7      14.7
    Menominee               40.6    32.4       8.2
1990 Census                 66.0    60.0       6.0
1988 Dress Rehearsal                              
    St. Louis City          50.3    44.4       5.9
    East Central            57.7    52.6       5.1
Missouri
    Eastern                 56.5    47.8       8.7
Washington
aFinal data are not yet available.
bThe 1998 Dress Rehearsal was conducted in
Sacramento, CA; 11 counties in the Columbia, SC,
area; and Menominee County, WI, including the
Menominee Indian Reservation.

Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.

     As shown in table 2, for the 2000 Census, the
Bureau had anticipated a 6.2 percentage point
response rate differential between the short and
long forms.  However, the actual difference grew
to 12.5 percentage points because the response
rate to the short form was higher than
anticipated, while the response rate to the long
form was somewhat lower than anticipated.

Table 2: Anticipated and Actual Response Rates to
the 2000 Census Short- and Long-Form
Questionnaires
Response rate         Short form     Long Percenta
                                     form       ge
                                             point
                                          differen
                                              tial
Anticipated                62.1%    55.9%      6.2
Actual a                    66.6     54.1     12.5
Difference                   4.5    (1.8)      6.3
between
anticipated
  and actual
aFinal data are not yet available.
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.

     After the 1990 Census, the Bureau expected a
more difficult time obtaining public cooperation
in 2000 because of many factors, including
concerns about privacy, lack of confidence in
civic institutions, non-English speaking
immigrants, and illiteracy rates.  In response,
the Bureau took several actions designed to boost
response rates-including developing streamlined
and simplified questionnaires, a paid advertising
campaign, and partnerships with local governments
and other organizations.  The overall (short and
long form) initial response rate for 2000 was 65
percent-about what it was in 1990 and 4 percentage
points above what the Bureau had anticipated.
Nevertheless, the 1990 experience, the 1998 Dress
Rehearsal results, and other demographic and
societal trends that we, and the Bureau, have
often noted throughout the decade suggested that
there likely would continue to be a significant,
and perhaps growing, short- and long-form
questionnaire differential mail response rate for
the 2000 Census.

     As shown in table 3, short- and long-form
differential mail return rates have followed a
similar pattern to differential response
rates-that is, increasing over time.  The mail
return rate is defined as the percentage of forms
completed and returned for occupied housing units.
Therefore, the rate is considered the more precise
measure of public cooperation with the census and
is calculated after the census is completed.
Return rates for the 2000 Census are not yet
available.

Table 3:  Short- and Long-Form Questionnaire
Return Rates, by Census or Test
Census or test        Short form     Long Percenta
                                     form       ge
                                             point
                                          differen
                                              tial
2000 Census                  N/A      N/A      N/A
1998 Dress                                        
Rehearsal:
    South                  64.7%    51.9%     12.8
Carolina
    Sacramento              63.1     47.7     15.4
    Menominee               59.1     48.3     10.8
1990 Census                 74.9     70.4      4.5
1988 Dress                                        
Rehearsal:
    St. Louis               62.4     56.6      5.8
City
    East Central            73.4     69.2      4.2
Missouri
    Eastern                 64.0     54.2      9.8
Washington
Legend:  N/A =  Not available
Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census.

Response Rates Before and After Dress Rehearsal
Replacement Mailing
     During the 1998 Dress Rehearsal, the Bureau
mailed a second, "replacement" questionnaire to
all housing units located in mailout/mailback
areas in South Carolina and Sacramento.  The
Bureau hoped that the second questionnaire would
help improve the response rate.2  The initial
forms were mailed between March 28 and 31, 1998.
Replacement forms were mailed between April 15 and
17, 1998.  The cutoff date for determining mail
response rates was May 7, 1998.  Table 4 shows
that although the response rates in both Dress
Rehearsal sites increased after the replacement
mailing, the differential response rates between
the short- and long-form questionnaires did not
change significantly-decreasing by 2.5 percentage
points in South Carolina and increasing by 0.1
percentage point in Sacramento.

Table 4: 1998 Census Dress Rehearsal Short- and
Long-Form Response Rates Before and After the
Replacement Mailing
Dress             Short form                Long form         Short- and long-
Rehearsal                                                         form
site                                                          differential
            Initia  Response Differ   Initia  Response Differ    Before   After
                l     after   ence       l     after  ence  replacem replacem
           respon replacemen         respon replacemen            ent     ent
               se t mailing             se t mailing        mailing mailing
             rate                     rate
South       41.4%     56.8%   15.4    27.7%     45.6%  17.9      13.7    11.2
Carolina
Sacramento   41.0      55.4   14.4     26.4      40.7  14.3      14.6    14.7
Note: The Bureau did not use a replacement mailing
at its Menominee test site and rural sections of
the South Carolina test site.  The replacement
mailing was used in Sacramento and the house
number/street name area of the South Carolina
site.

Source: GAO analysis based on Bureau of the Census
data.
_______________________________
1 For the 2000 Census, the Bureau used what it
refers to as an "initial response rate" to provide
a measure of the scope of the field follow-up
operation with nonresponding households.  This
initial rate is defined as the percentage of all
questionnaires that were completed and returned by
April 18, 2000.  The rate included the number of
questionnaires that were mailed back, transmitted
via the Internet, or completed over the telephone
through the Bureau's Telephone Questionnaire
Assistance program.  It also included "Be Counted
Forms" that could be matched to a specific census
identification number.
2 The Bureau decided against using a replacement
questionnaire for the 2000 Census because, among
other reasons, it appeared to have confused the
public.
*** End of document ***