Environmental Satellites: Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition	 
Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on Whether and How to Ensure	 
Climate Data Continuity (16-MAY-08, GAO-08-518).		 
                                                                 
The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite  
System (NPOESS) is a triagency acquisition--managed by the	 
Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric	 
Administration (NOAA), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the  
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)--that has	 
experienced escalating costs, schedule delays, and technical	 
difficulties. These factors led to a June 2006 decision to	 
restructure the program by reducing the number of satellites and 
sensors, increasing estimated costs to $12.5 billion, and	 
delaying the first two satellites by 3 to 5 years. Among other	 
objectives, GAO was asked to evaluate progress in restructuring  
the acquisition, assess the status of key program components and 
risks, and assess NASA's, NOAA's, and DOD's plans for obtaining  
the data originally planned to be collected by NPOESS sensors,	 
but eliminated by the restructuring. To do so, GAO analyzed	 
program and contractor data, attended program reviews, and	 
interviewed agency officials.					 
-------------------------Indexing Terms------------------------- 
REPORTNUM:   GAO-08-518 					        
    ACCNO:   A81923						        
  TITLE:     Environmental Satellites: Polar-orbiting Satellite       
Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on Whether and How to 
Ensure Climate Data Continuity					 
     DATE:   05/16/2008 
  SUBJECT:   Climate						 
	     Contract negotiations				 
	     Cost analysis					 
	     Cost control					 
	     Cost overruns					 
	     Data collection					 
	     Earth resources satellites 			 
	     Earth sciences data systems			 
	     Environmental monitoring				 
	     Interagency relations				 
	     Operational testing				 
	     Procurement planning				 
	     Program evaluation 				 
	     Program management 				 
	     Risk assessment					 
	     Risk management					 
	     Satellites 					 
	     Schedule slippages 				 
	     System vulnerabilities				 
	     Systems conversions				 
	     Systems integration				 
	     Systems testing					 
	     Technology 					 
	     Weather forecasting				 
	     National Polar-Orbiting Operational		 
	     Environmental Satellite System			 
                                                                 

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GAO-08-518

   

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Report to the Subcommittees on Energy and Environment and 
Investigations and Oversight, Committee on Science and Technology, 
House of Representatives: 

United States Government Accountability Office: 
GAO: 

May 2008: 

Environmental Satellites: 

Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on 
Whether and How to Ensure Climate Data Continuity: 

GAO-08-518: 

GAO Highlights: 

Highlights of GAO-08-518, a report to the Subcommittees on Energy and 
Environment and Investigations and Oversight, Committee on Science and 
Technology, House of Representatives. 

Why GAO Did This Study: 

The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System 
(NPOESS) is a tri-agency acquisitionï¿½managed by the Department of 
Commerceï¿½s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the 
Department of Defense (DOD), and the National Aeronautics and Space 
Administration (NASA)ï¿½that has experienced escalating costs, schedule 
delays, and technical difficulties. These factors led to a June 2006 
decision to restructure the program by reducing the number of 
satellites and sensors, increasing estimated costs to $12.5 billion, 
and delaying the first two satellites by 3 to 5 years. 

Among other objectives, GAO was asked to evaluate progress in 
restructuring the acquisition, assess the status of key program 
components and risks, and assess NASAï¿½s, NOAAï¿½s, and DODï¿½s plans for 
obtaining the data originally planned to be collected by NPOESS 
sensors, but eliminated by the restructuring. To do so, GAO analyzed 
program and contractor data, attended program reviews, and interviewed 
agency officials. 

What GAO Found: 

The program office has completed most of the major activities 
associated with restructuring the NPOESS acquisition, but key 
activities remain to be completed. In the past year, the program 
redefined the programï¿½s deliverables, costs, and schedules, and 
renegotiated the NPOESS contract. However, agency executives have not 
yet finalized selected acquisition documents (including the tri-agency 
memorandum of agreement). Without the executive approval of key 
acquisition documents, the program lacks the underlying commitment 
needed to effectively manage a tri-agency program. 

Over the past year, the NPOESS program has continued to make progress 
in completing development activities, but key milestones have been 
delayed and multiple risks remain. Specifically, poor workmanship and 
testing delays caused an 8-month slip in the expected delivery of a 
technologically complex imaging sensor that is critical to weather and 
climate observations. This later delivery caused a corresponding 8-
month delay in the expected launch date of a demonstration satellite, 
called the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP). This demonstration 
satellite is intended to provide on-orbit experiences that can be used 
to reduce risks on NPOESS satellites and to provide interim weather and 
climate observations should predecessor weather and climate satellites 
begin to degrade or fail. Moving forward, risks remain in completing 
the testing of key sensors, integrating them on the NPP spacecraft, and 
ensuring sufficient system security. The program office is aware of 
these risks and is working to mitigate them, but continued problems 
could affect the programï¿½s overall schedule and cost. 

When the NPOESS restructuring decision removed four climate and space 
environment sensors from the program and reduced the functionality of 
four others, the program was directed to restore a limited version of 
one sensor and to restore the seven others if funded by entities 
outside the program office. NOAA, NASA, and DOD have taken preliminary 
steps to restore the capabilities of selected sensors by prioritizing 
the sensors, assessing options for restoring them, and making decisions 
to mitigate near-term data gaps by adding two sensors to the NPP 
satellite. However, the agencies have not yet developed plans to 
mitigate the loss of these and other sensors on a long-term basis. 
Until such a plan is developed, the agencies may lose windows of 
opportunity for selecting cost effective options or they may resort to 
an ad hoc approach to restoring these sensors. Almost 2 years have 
passed since key sensors were removed from the NPOESS program; further 
delays in establishing a plan could result in gaps in the continuity of 
climate and space environment data. 

What GAO Recommends: 

GAO recommends that Commerce, NASA, and DOD coordinate to develop plans 
on whether and how to restore climate and space weather sensors removed 
from the NPOESS program. GAO is also reemphasizing a prior 
recommendation for agency executives to finalize acquisition documents. 
Agency officials agreed with both recommendations. 

To view the full product, including the scope and methodology, click on 
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-08-518]. For more 
information, contact David Powner at (202) 512-9286 or [email protected]. 

[End of section] 

Contents: 

Letter: 

Results in Brief: 

Background: 

Major Restructuring Activities Have Been Completed, but Key Activities 
Remain: 

NPOESS Program Has Made Progress, but Key Milestones Have Been Delayed 
and Risks Remain: 

Program Office Identified Preferred Timelines for Decisions on 
Restoring Sensors to NPOESS: 

Agencies Have Undertaken Preliminary Steps to Restore Key Sensors, but 
Lack Timely Plans to Ensure Long-Term Data Continuity: 

Conclusions: 

Recommendations for Executive Action: 

Agency Comments: 

Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology: 

Appendix II: Status of Key Acquisition Documents: 

Appendix III: Comments from the Department of Commerce: 

Appendix IV: Comments from the Department of Defense: 

Appendix V: Comments from the National Aeronautics and Space 
Administration: 

Appendix VI: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments: 

Tables: 

Table 1: Expected NPOESS Instruments, as of August 31, 2004 (critical 
sensors are in bold): 

Table 2: Summary of Changes to the NPOESS Program, as of June 2006: 

Table 3: Key Program Milestones: 

Table 4: Changes to NPOESS Instruments, as of June 2006 (critical 
sensors in bold): 

Table 5: Planned Configuration of Instruments on NPP and NPOESS 
Satellites, as of January 2008 (critical sensors are in bold): 

Table 6: Status of Ground Segment Components: 

Table 7: Status of Selected Components of the Space Segment, as of 
January 2008: 

Table 8: Sensors That Could be Restored to NPOESS Satellites: 

Table 9: Program's Timelines for Restoring Canceled Sensors: 

Table 10: Summary of Studies on Impacts of the Loss of Sensors and 
Priorities for Restoring Them: 

Table 11: Status of NPOESS Acquisition Documents: 

Figures: 

Figure 1: Configuration of Operational Polar Satellites: 

Figure 2: Satellite Data Processing Steps: 

Figure 3: POES Image of Hurricane Katrina in 2005: 

Figure 4: Analysis of Ozone Concentration from POES Satellite Data: 

Figure 5: Satellite Measurements of Ozone over Antarctica, from 1980 to 
2005: 

Figure 6: Agency Responsibilities within the NPOESS Integrated Program 
Office: 

Figure 7: Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variances for the NPOESS Ground 
Segment over a 12-month Period: 

Figure 8: Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variance for the NPOESS Space 
Segment over a 12-Month Period: 

Figure 9: Selected Options for Restoring Selected Climate Sensors, as 
of January 2008: 

Abbreviations: 

CrIS: Cross-track infrared sounder: 

DMSP: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program: 

DOD: Department of Defense: 

EDR: environmental data record: 

IDPS: interface data processing system: 

NASA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration: 

NESDIS: National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information 
Service: 

NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: 

NPOESS: National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite 
System: 

NPP: NPOESS Preparatory Project: 

POES: Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites: 

VIIRS: Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite: 

[End of section] 

United States Government Accountability Office:
Washington, DC 20548: 

May 16, 2008: 

The Honorable Nick Lampson: 
Chairman: 
The Honorable Bob Inglis: 
Ranking Member: 
Subcommittee on Energy and Environment: 
Committee on Science and Technology: 
House of Representatives: 

The Honorable Brad Miller: 
Chairman: 
The Honorable F. James Sensenbrenner Jr. 
Ranking Member: 
Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight: 
Committee on Science and Technology: 
House of Representatives: 

The planned National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite 
System (NPOESS) program is expected to be a state-of-the-art, 
environment-monitoring satellite system that will replace two existing 
polar-orbiting environmental satellite systems. Polar-orbiting 
satellites provide data and imagery that are used by weather 
forecasters, climatologists, and the military to map and monitor 
changes in weather, climate, the oceans, and the environment. The 
NPOESS program is considered critical to the United States' ability to 
maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting 
(including severe weather events such as hurricanes) and global climate 
monitoring through the year 2026. 

Three agencies share responsibility for the NPOESS acquisition: the 
Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric 
Administration (NOAA), the Department of Defense (DOD)/United States 
Air Force, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration 
(NASA). These agencies established a tri-agency integrated program 
office to manage the NPOESS program. In recent years, this program 
experienced escalating costs, schedule delays, and technical 
difficulties, leading to a June 2006 decision to restructure the 
program. This decision decreased the complexity of the program by 
reducing the number of satellites and sensors, increased the estimated 
cost of the program to $12.5 billion, and delayed the launches of the 
first two satellites by 3 to 5 years. The launch of a demonstration 
satellite, called the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP), was also 
delayed by about 3 years. NPP is expected to reduce NPOESS risks by 
providing an early opportunity to work with the sensors, ground 
systems, and data processing systems. It is also envisioned to provide 
continuity of weather and climate data should predecessor satellites 
degrade or fail. In addition, when the restructuring decision removed 
four climate and space environment sensors from the program and reduced 
the functionality of four others, the program was directed to restore a 
limited version of one sensor and to restore the seven others if 
sponsored and funded outside the program. 

This report responds to your request that we (1) evaluate the NPOESS 
program office's progress in restructuring the acquisition, (2) assess 
the status of key program components and risks, (3) identify how much 
notice the program office would need if agency sponsors outside the 
program choose to restore the eliminated or degraded sensors to the 
NPOESS program, and (4) assess NASA's, NOAA's, and DOD's plans for 
obtaining the environmental data originally planned to be collected by 
NPOESS sensors, but then eliminated by the restructuring. 

To address our objectives, we reviewed program documentation including 
the decision memo that restructured the program, status briefings, 
milestone progress reports, and reports on program and agency plans for 
restoring sensors to the NPOESS program. We analyzed earned value 
management data obtained from the contractor to determine performance 
against cost and schedule estimates. We also interviewed relevant 
agency officials from NOAA, NASA, and DOD. In addition, this work 
builds on reviews we have done on environmental satellites over the 
last several years.[Footnote 1] 

We conducted our work at the NPOESS Integrated Program Office 
headquarters and at NOAA, NASA, and DOD facilities in the Washington, 
D.C., metropolitan area. In addition, we conducted work at a 
contractor's facility in Boulder, Colorado, and at the Air Force 
Weather Agency in Omaha, Nebraska, because of the importance of these 
sites to the planned integration and operations of the NPP satellite. 
We conducted this performance audit from June 2007 to April 2008 in 
accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards. 
Additional details on our objectives, scope, and methodology are 
provided in appendix I. 

Results in Brief: 

The NPOESS program office has completed most of the major activities 
associated with restructuring the acquisition, but key activities 
remain to be completed. In the past year, the program redefined the 
program's deliverables, costs, and schedules, and renegotiated the 
NPOESS contract. However, agency executives have not yet finalized 
selected acquisition documents, including the tri-agency memorandum of 
agreement and the acquisition program baseline. Without executive 
approval of the memorandum of agreement and other key acquisition 
documents, the program lacks the underlying commitment needed to 
effectively manage a tri-agency program. 

In the past year, the NPOESS program has made progress in completing 
development and testing activities associated with the spacecraft, 
sensors, and ground systems. However, key milestones have been delayed 
and multiple risks remain. Specifically, poor workmanship and testing 
delays caused an 8-month slip in the delivery of a complex imaging 
sensor called the Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite (VIIRS). 
This late delivery caused a corresponding 8-month delay in the expected 
launch date of the NPP demonstration satellite, moving it from late 
September 2009 to early June 2010. Any delay in this launch date 
shortens the time available for identifying lessons learned from NPP 
while it is in orbit and incorporating these lessons in the development 
of the first NPOESS satellite. NPP delays could also lead to gaps in 
weather and climate data continuity if existing satellites begin to 
degrade or fail. Moving forward, risks remain in completing the testing 
of key sensors and integrating them on the NPP spacecraft, resolving 
interagency disagreements about the appropriate level of system 
security, and revising outdated operations and support cost estimates. 
The program office is aware of these risks and is working to mitigate 
them, but continued problems could affect the program's overall 
schedule and cost. 

When the NPOESS restructuring decision removed and degraded climate and 
space weather sensors from the program in order to reduce the risk and 
complexity of the system, it allowed for the sensors to be restored if 
funded by entities outside the program office. The NPOESS program 
office has requested that any entities that are willing to fund efforts 
to restore a sensor provide them 6 years' advance notice before the 
launch of the target satellite. This includes 4 years for the sensor to 
be developed and tested, and 2 years for integration and testing on the 
spacecraft. These milestones are based on historical data about how 
long it takes to build and integrate sensors. However, agency officials 
believe that these time frames could be shorter if the sensor has 
already been developed and the technology is well understood. 

NASA, NOAA, and DOD have taken preliminary steps to restore the 
capabilities of selected climate and space weather sensors that were 
removed from the NPOESS program by prioritizing the sensors, assessing 
options for restoring them, and making decisions to mitigate near-term 
data continuity needs by restoring two sensors to the NPP satellite. 
However, the agencies have not yet developed plans on whether and how 
to replace sensors on a long-term basis. Until such a plan is 
developed, the agencies may lose their windows of opportunity for 
selecting cost-effective options or they may resort to an ad hoc 
approach to restoring these sensors. Almost 2 years have passed since 
key sensors were removed from the NPOESS program; further delays in 
establishing a plan could result in gaps in the continuity of climate 
and space data. 

We are making recommendations to the Secretaries of Commerce and 
Defense and to the Administrator of NASA to coordinate with partner 
agencies to develop plans on whether and how to restore the climate and 
space weather sensors removed from the NPOESS program. In addition, we 
are reemphasizing our prior recommendation that the appropriate 
executives immediately finalize key acquisition documents. The 
Department of Commerce, DOD, and NASA provided written comments on a 
draft of our report (see apps. III, IV, and V). All three agencies 
agreed with our recommendations. 

Background: 

Since the 1960s, the United States has operated two separate 
operational polar-orbiting meteorological satellite systems: the Polar-
orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) series, which is 
managed by NOAA, and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program 
(DMSP), which is managed by the Air Force. These satellites obtain 
environmental data that are processed to provide graphical weather 
images and specialized weather products. These satellite data are also 
the predominant input to numerical weather prediction models, which are 
a primary tool for forecasting weather 3 or more days in all advance--
including forecasting the path and intensity of hurricanes. The weather 
products and models are used to predict the potential impact of severe 
weather so that communities and emergency managers can help prevent and 
mitigate their effects. Polar satellites also provide data used to 
monitor environmental phenomena, such as ozone depletion and drought 
conditions, as well as data sets that are used by researchers for a 
variety of studies such as climate monitoring. 

Unlike geostationary satellites, which maintain a fixed position 
relative to the earth, polar-orbiting satellites constantly circle the 
earth in an almost north-south orbit, providing global coverage of 
conditions that affect the weather and climate. Each satellite makes 
about 14 orbits a day. As the earth rotates beneath it, each satellite 
views the entire earth's surface twice a day. Currently, there are two 
operational POES satellites and two operational DMSP satellites that 
are positioned so that they can observe the earth in early morning, 
midmorning, and early afternoon polar orbits. Together, they ensure 
that, for any region of the earth, the data provided to users are 
generally no more than 6 hours old. Figure 1 illustrates the current 
operational polar satellite configuration. Besides the four operational 
satellites, six older satellites are in orbit that still collect some 
data and are available to provide limited backup to the operational 
satellites should they degrade or fail. In the future, the Air Force 
plans to continue to launch an additional DMSP satellite every few 
years; the last is currently expected to launch in 2012.[Footnote 2] 
NOAA plans to launch the final remaining POES satellite in 2009. 

Figure 1: Configuration of Operational Polar Satellites: 

[See PDF for image] 

This figure is an illustration of the orbits of operational polar 
satellites. Noted on the illustration are the following equatorial 
crossing times: 

DMPS: 0730 hours; 
POES: 0830 hours; 
DMPS: 0530 hours; 
POES: 1330 hours. 

Source: GAO, based on NPOESS Integrated Program Office data. 

[End of figure] 

Polar Satellite Data and Products: 

Polar satellites gather a broad range of data that are transformed into 
a variety of products. Satellite sensors observe different bands of 
radiation wavelengths, called channels, which are used for remotely 
determining information about the earth's atmosphere, land surface, 
oceans, and the space environment. When first received, satellite data 
are considered raw data. To make them usable, the processing centers 
format the data so that they are time-sequenced and include earth 
location and calibration information. After formatting, these data are 
called raw data records. The centers further process these raw data 
records into channel-specific data sets, called sensor data records and 
temperature data records. These data records are then used to derive 
weather and climate products called environmental data records (EDR). 
EDRs include a wide range of atmospheric products detailing cloud 
coverage, temperature, humidity, and ozone distribution; land surface 
products showing snow cover, vegetation, and land use; ocean products 
depicting sea surface temperatures, sea ice, and wave height; and 
characterizations of the space environment. Combinations of these data 
records (raw, sensor, temperature, and environmental data records) are 
also used to derive more sophisticated products, including outputs from 
numerical weather models and assessments of climate trends. Figure 2 is 
a simplified depiction of the various stages of satellite data 
processing, and figures 3 and 4 depict examples of EDR weather 
products. Specifically, figure 3 depicts a product used in weather 
forecasting, and figure 4 depicts a product used in climate monitoring. 
Figure 5 depicts a derived product that demonstrates how climate 
measurements can be aggregated over time to identify long-term trends. 
In commenting on a draft of this report, NOAA officials noted that 
while EDRs can be a valuable source of climate data, the scientific 
community also needs climate data records. These records require their 
own algorithms, data handling systems, and calibration/validation in 
order to ensure consistency in processing and reprocessing over years 
and decades. 

Figure 2: Satellite Data Processing Steps: 

[See PDF for image] 

This figure is an illustration of satellite data processing steps, as 
follows: 

Satellite Data Processing Steps: 
1) Raw data; 
2) Raw data records; 
3) Sensor data records and temperature data records; 
4) Environmental data records; 
5) Derived products and output from numerical weather prediction 
models. 

Source: GAO analysis of NOAA information. 

[End of figure] 

Figure 3: POES Image of Hurricane Katrina in 2005: 

[See PDF for image] 

Satellite image of Hurricane Katrina. 

Source: NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information 
Service. 

[End of figure] 

Figure 4: Analysis of Ozone Concentration from POES Satellite Data: 

[See PDF for image] 

Printout of SBUV/2 Total Zone, Southern Hemisphere. 

Source: NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information 
Service. 

[End of figure] 

Figure 5: Satellite Measurements of Ozone over Antarctica, from 1980 to 
2005: 

[See PDF for image] 

This figure is a graph indicating satellite observations from 1980 to 
the present. These observations are in minimum total ozone (Dobson 
units). Also depicted is the range of atmospheric model predictions. 

Source: Fahey, D.W. (Lead Author), Twenty Questions and Answers About 
the Ozone Layer: 2006 Update, World Meteorological Organization, 
Geneva, 2007. [Reprinted from Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion: 
2006, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project - Report No.50, 
World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 2007.]. 

[End of figure] 

NPOESS Overview: 

With the expectation that combining the POES and DMSP programs would 
reduce duplication and result in sizable cost savings, a May 1994 
Presidential Decision Directive required NOAA and DOD to converge the 
two satellite programs into a single satellite program capable of 
satisfying both civilian and military requirements.[Footnote 3] The 
converged program, NPOESS, is considered critical to the United States' 
ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather 
forecasting and global climate monitoring through the year 2026. To 
manage this program, DOD, NOAA, and NASA formed the tri-agency 
Integrated Program Office, located within NOAA. 

Within the program office, each agency has the lead on certain 
activities: NOAA has overall program management responsibility for the 
converged system and for satellite operations; DOD's Air Force has the 
lead on the acquisition; and NASA has primary responsibility for 
facilitating the development and incorporation of new technologies into 
the converged system. NOAA and DOD share the costs of funding NPOESS, 
while NASA funds specific technology projects and studies. Figure 6 
depicts the organizations that make up the NPOESS program office and 
lists their responsibilities. 

The NPOESS program office is overseen by an executive committee that is 
made up of the administrators of NOAA and NASA and the Undersecretary 
of the Air Force. 

Figure 6: Agency Responsibilities within the NPOESS Integrated Program 
Office: 

[See PDF for image] 

This figure is an illustration of Agency Responsibilities within the 
NPOESS Integrated Program Office, as follows: 

NPOESS Integrated Program Office: 

Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; 
Responsibility: Overall program management and satellite operations; 
Funding: Shared funding for NPOESS. 

Agency: United States Air Force; 
Responsibility: Acquisition; 
Funding: Shared funding for NPOESS. 

Agency: National Aeronautics and Space Administration; 
Responsibility: Technologies; 
Funding: Specific technology projects and studies. 

Source: GAO, based on NPOESS Integrated Program Office data. 

[End of figure] 

NPOESS is a major system acquisition that was originally estimated to 
cost about $6.5 billion over the 24-year life of the program from its 
inception in 1995 through 2018. The program is to provide satellite 
development, satellite launch and operation, and ground-based satellite 
data processing. These deliverables are grouped into four main 
categories: (1) the space segment, which includes the satellites and 
sensors; (2) the integrated data processing segment, which is the 
system for transforming raw data into EDRs and is to be located at the 
four processing centers; (3) the command, control, and communications 
segment, which includes the equipment and services needed to support 
satellite operations; and (4) the launch segment, which includes the 
launch vehicle services. 

When the NPOESS engineering, manufacturing, and development contract 
was awarded in August 2002, the cost estimate was adjusted to $7 
billion. Acquisition plans called for the procurement and launch of six 
satellites over the life of the program, as well as the integration of 
13 instruments--consisting of 10 environmental sensors and 3 
subsystems. Together, the sensors were to receive and transmit data on 
atmospheric, cloud cover, environmental, climatic, oceanographic, and 
solar-geophysical observations. The subsystems were to support 
nonenvironmental search and rescue efforts, sensor survivability, and 
environmental data collection activities. The program office considered 
4 of the sensors to be critical because they provide data for key 
weather products; these sensors are in bold in table 1, which describes 
each of the expected NPOESS instruments. 

Table 1: Expected NPOESS Instruments, as of August 31, 2004 (critical 
sensors are in bold): 

Instrument: Advanced technology microwave sounder (critical sensor); 
Description: Measures microwave energy released and scattered by the 
atmosphere and is to be used with infrared sounding data from the cross-
track infrared sounder to produce daily global atmospheric temperature, 
humidity, and pressure profiles. 

Instrument: Aerosol polarimetry sensor; 
Description: Retrieves specific measurements of clouds and aerosols 
(liquid droplets or solid particles suspended in the atmosphere, such 
as sea spray, smog, and smoke). 

Instrument: Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder (critical sensor); 
Description: Collects microwave images and data needed to measure rain 
rate, ocean surface wind speed and direction, amount of water in the 
clouds, and soil moisture, as well as temperature and humidity at 
different atmospheric levels. 

Instrument: Cross-track infrared sounder (critical sensor); 
Description: Collects measurements of the earth's radiation to 
determine the vertical distribution of temperature, moisture, and 
pressure in the atmosphere. 

Instrument: Data collection system; 
Description: Collects environmental data from platforms around the 
world and delivers them to users worldwide. 

Instrument: Earth radiation budget sensor; 
Description: Measures solar short-wave radiation and long-wave 
radiation released by the earth back into space on a worldwide scale to 
enhance long-term climate studies. 

Instrument: Ozone mapper/profiler suite; 
Description: Collects data needed to measure the amount and 
distribution of ozone in the earth's atmosphere. Consists of two 
components (limb and nadir), which can be provided separately. 

Instrument: Radar altimeter; 
Description: Measures variances in sea surface height/topography and 
ocean surface roughness, which are used to determine sea surface 
height, significant wave height, and ocean surface wind speed and to 
provide critical inputs to ocean forecasting and climate prediction 
models. 

Instrument: Search and rescue satellite aided tracking system; 
Description: Detects and locates aviators, mariners, and land-based 
users in distress. 

Instrument: Space environmental sensor suite; 
Description: Collects data to identify, reduce, and predict the effects 
of space weather on technological systems, including satellites and 
radio links. 

Instrument: Survivability sensor; 
Description: Monitors for attacks on the satellite and notifies other 
instruments in case of an attack. 

Instrument: Total solar irradiance sensor; 
Description: Monitors and captures total and spectral solar irradiance 
data. 

Instrument: Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite (VIIRS)(critical 
sensor); 
Description: Collects images and radiometric data used to provide 
information on the earth's clouds, atmosphere, ocean, and land 
surfaces. 

Source: GAO, based on NPOESS program office data. 

[End of table] 

In addition, a demonstration satellite, called the NPOESS Preparatory 
Project (NPP), was planned to be launched several years before the 
first NPOESS satellite in order to reduce the risk associated with 
launching new sensor technologies and to ensure continuity of climate 
data with NASA's Earth Observing System satellites. NPP was to host 
three of the four critical NPOESS sensors, as well as one other no 
critical sensor and to provide the program office and the processing 
centers an early opportunity to work with the sensors, ground control, 
and data processing systems.[Footnote 4] 

When the NPOESS development contract was awarded, the schedule for 
launching the satellites was driven by a requirement that the 
satellites be available to back up the final POES and DMSP satellites 
should anything go wrong during the planned launches of these 
satellites. Early program milestones included (1) launching NPP by May 
2006, (2) having the first NPOESS satellite available to back up the 
final POES satellite launch in March 2008, and (3) having the second 
NPOESS satellite available to back up the final DMSP satellite launch 
in October 2009. If the NPOESS satellites were not needed to back up 
the final predecessor satellites, their anticipated launch dates would 
have been April 2009 and June 2011, respectively. 

Continuing Cost Increases, Schedule Delays, and Technical Problems Led 
to a Decision to Restructure the NPOESS Program: 

Over several years, we reported that NPOESS had experienced continued 
cost increases, schedule delays, and serious technical 
problems.[Footnote 5] By November 2005, we estimated that the cost of 
the program had grown from $7 billion to over $10 billion. In addition, 
the program was experiencing major technical problems with the VIIRS 
sensor and expected to delay the launch date of the first satellite by 
almost 2 years. These issues ultimately required difficult decisions to 
be made about the program's direction and capabilities. 

The Nunn-McCurdy law requires DOD to take specific actions when a major 
defense acquisition program growth exceeds certain cost thresholds. 
[Footnote 6] Key provisions of the law require the Secretary of Defense 
to notify Congress when a major defense acquisition is expected to 
overrun its baseline by 15 percent or more and to certify the program 
to Congress when it is expected to overrun its baseline by 25 percent 
or more.[Footnote 7] In November 2005, NPOESS exceeded the 25 percent 
threshold, and DOD was required to certify the program. Certifying a 
program entails providing a determination that (1) the program is 
essential to national security, (2) there are no alternatives to the 
program that will provide equal or greater military capability at less 
cost, (3) the new estimates of the program's cost are reasonable, and 
(4) the management structure for the program is adequate to manage and 
control costs. DOD established tri-agency teams--made up of DOD, NOAA, 
and NASA experts--to work on each of the four elements of the 
certification process. 

In June 2006, DOD (with the agreement of both of its partner agencies) 
certified a restructured NPOESS program, estimated to cost $12.5 
billion through 2026.[Footnote 8] This decision approved a cost 
increase of $4 billion over the prior approved baseline cost and 
delayed the launch of NPP and the first 2 satellites by roughly 3 to 5 
years. The new program also entailed reducing the number of satellites 
to be produced and launched from 6 to 4, and reducing the number of 
instruments on the satellites from 13 to 9--consisting of 7 
environmental sensors and 2 subsystems. It also entailed using NPOESS 
satellites in the early morning and afternoon orbits and relying on 
European satellites for midmorning orbit data.[Footnote 9] Table 2 
summarizes the major program changes made under the Nunn-McCurdy 
certification decision. 

Table 2: Summary of Changes to the NPOESS Program, as of June 2006: 

Key area: Life cycle range; 
Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 1995-2020; 
Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 1995-2026. 

Key area: Estimated life cycle cost; 
Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: $8.4 billion; 
Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: $12.5 billion. 

Key area: Launch schedule; 
Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 
* NPP by October 2006; 
* First NPOESS by November 2009; 
* Second NPOESS by June 2011; 
Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 
* NPP by January 2010[A]; 
* First NPOESS by January 2013; 
* Second NPOESS by January 2016. 

Key area: Management structure; 
Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 
* System Program Director reports to a tri-agency steering committee 
and the tri-agency Executive Committee; 
* Independent program reviews noted insufficient system engineering and 
cost analysis staff; 
Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 
* System Program Director is responsible for day-to-day program 
management and reports to the Program Executive Officer; 
* Program Executive Officer oversees program and reports to the tri-
agency Executive Committee. 

Key area: Number of satellites; 
Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 6 (in addition to NPP); 
Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 4 (in addition to NPP). 

Key area: Number of orbits; 
Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 3 (early morning, midmorning, 
and afternoon); 
Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 2 (early morning and 
afternoon; will rely on European satellites for midmorning orbit data). 

Key area: Number and complement of instruments; 
Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 13 instruments (10 sensors 
and 3 subsystems); 
Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 9 instruments (7 sensors and 2 
subsystems); 4 of the sensors are to provide fewer capabilities. 

Key area: Number of EDRs; 
Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 55; 
Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 39 (6 are to be degraded 
products). 

Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS program office data. 

[A] Although the Nunn-McCurdy certification decision specifies NPP is 
to launch by January 2010, NASA planned to launch it by September 2009 
to reduce the possibility of a climate data continuity gap. 

[End of table] 

The Nunn-McCurdy certification decision established new milestones for 
the delivery of key program elements, including launching NPP by 
January 2010,[Footnote 10] launching the first NPOESS satellite (called 
C1) by January 2013, and launching the second NPOESS satellite (called 
C2) by January 2016. These revised milestones deviated from prior plans 
to have the first NPOESS satellite available to back up the final POES 
satellite should anything go wrong during that launch. Table 3 
summarizes changes in key program milestones over time. 

Table 3: Key Program Milestones: 

Milestones: Final POES launch[A]; 
As of the August 2002 contract award: March 2008; 
As of the February 2004 rebaselined program: March 2008; 
As of the June 2006 certification decision: February 2009; 
Change from 2004 rebaselined program: Not applicable. 

Milestones: NPP launch; 
As of the August 2002 contract award: May 2006; 
As of the February 2004 rebaselined program: October 2006; 
As of the June 2006 certification decision: January 2010[B]; 
Change from 2004 rebaselined program: 44-month delay. 

Milestones: First NPOESS satellite planned for launch; 
As of the August 2002 contract award: April 2009; 
As of the February 2004 rebaselined program: November 2009; 
As of the June 2006 certification decision: January 2013; 
Change from 2004 rebaselined program: 38-month delay. 

Milestones: Final DMSP launch[A]; 
As of the August 2002 contract award: October 2009; 
As of the February 2004 rebaselined program: May 2010; 
As of the June 2006 certification decision: April 2012; 
Change from 2004 rebaselined program: Not applicable. 

Milestones: Second NPOESS satellite planned for launch; 
As of the August 2002 contract award: June 2011; 
As of the February 2004 rebaselined program: June 2011; 
As of the June 2006 certification decision: January 2016; 
Change from 2004 rebaselined program: 55-month delay. 

Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS program office data. 

[A] POES and DMSP are not part of the NPOESS program. Their launch 
dates are provided to indicate the increased risk of satellite data 
gaps between when these systems launch and when the NPOESS satellites 
launch. 

[B] Although the certification decision specified NPP is to launch by 
January 2010, NASA planned to launch it by September 2009 to reduce the 
possibility of a gap in climate data continuity. 

[End of table] 

Delaying the launch of the first NPOESS satellite meant that if the 
final POES satellite fails on launch, satellite data users would need 
to rely on the existing constellation of environmental satellites until 
NPP data becomes available--almost 2 years later. Although NPP was not 
intended to be an operational asset, NASA agreed to move NPP to a 
different orbit so that its data would be available in the event of a 
premature failure of the final POES satellite. If the health of the 
existing constellation of satellites diminishes--or if NPP data is not 
available, timely, and reliable--there could be a gap in environmental 
satellite data. 

In order to reduce program complexity, the Nunn-McCurdy certification 
decision decreased the number of NPOESS sensors from 13 to 9 and 
reduced the functionality of 4 sensors. Specifically, of the 13 
original sensors, 5 sensors remain unchanged (but 2 are on a reduced 
number of satellites), 3 were replaced with older or less capable 
sensors, 1 was modified to provide less functionality, and 4 were 
canceled. Table 4 delineates the changes made. 

Table 4: Changes to NPOESS Instruments, as of June 2006 (critical 
sensors in bold): 

Instrument: Advanced technology microwave sounder (critical sensor); 
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor unchanged; to 
be included on NPP and on afternoon satellites. 

Instrument: Aerosol polarimetry sensor; 
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor was 
canceled[A]. 

Instrument: Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder (critical sensor); 
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor was canceled; 
program office to procure a less complex microwave imager/sounder for 
inclusion beginning on the second NPOESS satellite. 

Instrument: Cross-track infrared sounder (critical sensor); 
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor unchanged; to 
be included on NPP and on afternoon satellites. 

Instrument: Data collection system; 
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: No change; subsystem 
is to be included on all four NPOESS satellites. 

Instrument: Earth radiation budget sensor; 
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor was canceled; 
is to be replaced by a legacy sensor[A]. 

Instrument: Ozone mapper/profiler suite; 
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: One part of the 
sensor (limb) was canceled; remaining part is to be included on NPP and 
on all four NPOESS satellites[A]. 

Instrument: Radar altimeter; 
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor was 
canceled[A]. 

Instrument: Search and rescue satellite aided tracking system; 
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor unchanged; 
subsystem is to be included on all four NPOESS satellites. 

Instrument: Space environmental sensor suite; 
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor was canceled; 
is to be replaced by a less capable, less expensive legacy sensor[A]. 

Instrument: Survivability sensor; 
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Subsystem was 
canceled[A]. 

Instrument: Total solar irradiance sensor; 
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor was 
canceled[A]. 

Instrument: Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite (critical sensor); 
Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor unchanged; 
sensor is to be included on NPP and on all four NPOESS satellites. 

Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS program office data. 

[A] While direct program funding for these sensors was eliminated, 
these sensors could be reintegrated should other parties choose to fund 
them. The Nunn-McCurdy certification decision notes that the satellite 
bus is to include space for these sensors and funds to integrate them. 

[End of table] 

Table 5 shows the changes to NPOESS instruments, including the 4 
critical sensors identified in bold, and the planned configuration for 
NPP and the four satellites of the NPOESS program, called C1, C2, C3, 
and C4. Program officials acknowledged that this configuration could 
change if other parties decided to develop the sensors that were 
canceled. However, they stated that the planned configuration of the 
first satellite (C1) cannot change without increasing the risk that the 
launch would be delayed. 

Table 5: Planned Configuration of Instruments on NPP and NPOESS 
Satellites, as of January 2008 (critical sensors are in bold): 

Instrument: Advanced technology microwave sounder (critical sensor); 
NPP: Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite. 

Instrument: Aerosol polarimetry sensor; 
NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C2 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this 
satellite. 

Instrument: Microwave imager/sounder (replacing the Conical-scanned 
microwave imager/sounder) (critical sensor); 
NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C1 (PM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite. 

Instrument: Cross-track infrared sounder (critical sensor); 
NPP: Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite. 

Instrument: Data collection system; 
NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite. 

Instrument: Earth radiation budget sensor (replaced on NPP and C1 by 
the Clouds and the earth's radiant energy system sensor); 
NPP: Sensor is currently planned for this satellite[A]; 
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C2 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this 
satellite. 

Instrument: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (nadir); 
NPP: Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C2 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this 
satellite. 

Instrument: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb); 
NPP: Sensor is currently planned for this satellite[B]; 
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C2 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this 
satellite. 

Instrument: Space environmental sensor suite; 
NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite. 

Instrument: Space environment monitor[C] (replacing selected 
capabilities of the space environmental sensor suite); 
NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C2 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this 
satellite. 

Instrument: Total solar irradiance sensor; 
NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C1 (PM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite. 

Instrument: Radar altimeter; 
NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C1 (PM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite. 

Instrument: Survivability sensor; 
NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this 
satellite. 

Instrument: Search and rescue satellite aided tracking system; 
NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite. 

Instrument: Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite (critical sensor); 
NPP: Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite. 

Source: GAO analysis of program office data. 

[A] The NPOESS Executive Committee recently decided to add the Clouds 
and the earth's radiant energy system to the NPP satellite to reduce 
the risk of a data gap of earth radiation budget data. 

[B] The limb component of the Ozone mapper/profiler suite was added 
back to NPP using NASA/NOAA funds from outside the NPOESS baseline 
program. 

[C] The space environment monitor is a limited version of the full 
space environmental sensor suite. 

[End of table] 

The changes in NPOESS sensors affected the number and quality of the 
resulting weather and environmental products, called EDRs. In selecting 
sensors for the restructured program during the Nunn-McCurdy process, 
decision makers placed the highest priority on continuing current 
operational weather capabilities and a lower priority on obtaining 
selected environmental and climate measuring capabilities. As a result, 
the revised NPOESS system has significantly less capability for 
providing global climate measures than was originally planned. 
Specifically, the number of EDRs was decreased from 55 to 39, of which 
6 are of a reduced quality. The 39 EDRs that remain include cloud base 
height, land surface temperature, precipitation type and rate, and sea 
surface winds. The 16 EDRs that were removed include cloud particle 
size and distribution, sea surface height, net solar radiation at the 
top of the atmosphere, and products to depict the electric fields in 
the space environment. The 6 EDRs that are of a reduced quality include 
ozone profile, soil moisture, and multiple products depicting energy in 
the space environment. 

Prior Report Recommended Steps to Mitigate Program Risks: 

In April 2007, we reported that while the program office had made 
progress in restructuring NPOESS since the June 2006 Nunn-McCurdy 
certification decision, important tasks leading up to finalizing 
contract changes remained to be completed.[Footnote 11] Specifically, 
the program had established and implemented interim program plans 
guiding the contractor's work activities in 2006 and 2007 and had made 
progress on drafting key acquisition documents, including the system 
engineering plan, the test and evaluation master plan, and the 
memorandum of agreement between the agencies. However, executive 
approval of those documents was about 6 months late at that time--due 
in part to the complexity of navigating three agencies' approval 
processes. 

We also reported that the program office had made progress in 
establishing an effective management structure, but that plans to 
reassign the Program Executive Officer would unnecessarily increase 
risks to an already risky program. Additionally, we found that the 
program lacked a process and plan for identifying and filling staffing 
shortages, which led to delays in key activities such as cost 
estimating and contract revisions. We reported that until this process 
is in place, the NPOESS program faced increased risk of further delays. 

To address these issues, we recommended that the appropriate agency 
executives finalize key acquisition documents by the end of April 2007 
in order to allow the restructuring of the program to proceed. We also 
recommended that NPOESS program officials develop and implement a 
written process for identifying and addressing human capital needs and 
that they establish a plan to immediately fill needed positions. In 
addition, to reduce program risks, we recommended that DOD delay the 
reassignment of the Program Executive Officer until all sensors were 
delivered to NPP. 

The agencies' response to these recommendations has been mixed. While 
the program office is still working to complete selected acquisition 
documents, program officials documented the program's staffing process 
and have made progress in filling selected budgeting and system 
engineering vacancies. DOD, however, reassigned the Program Executive 
Officer in July 2007. A new Program Executive Officer is now in place. 

Earned Value Management Techniques Provide Insight on Program Cost and 
Schedule: 

To effectively oversee an acquisition, project managers need current 
information on a contractor's progress in meeting contract 
deliverables. One method that can help project managers track this 
progress is earned value management. This method, used by DOD for 
several decades, compares the value of work accomplished during a given 
period with that of the work expected in that period. 

Differences from expectations are measured in both cost and schedule 
variances. Cost variances compare the earned value of the completed 
work with the actual cost of the work performed. For example, if a 
contractor completed $5 million worth of work and the work actually 
cost $6.7 million, there would be a -$1.7 million cost variance. 
Schedule variances are also measured in dollars, but they compare the 
earned value of the work completed with the value of work that was 
expected to be completed. For example, if a contractor completed $5 
million worth of work at the end of the month but was budgeted to 
complete $10 million worth of work, there would be a -$5 million 
schedule variance. Positive variances indicate that activities are 
costing less or are completed ahead of schedule. Negative variances 
indicate activities are costing more or are falling behind schedule. 
These cost and schedule variances can then be used in estimating the 
cost and time needed to complete the program. 

Major Restructuring Activities Have Been Completed, but Key Activities 
Remain: 

The program office has completed major activities associated with 
restructuring NPOESS, but key supporting activities remain--including 
obtaining approval of key acquisition documents. Restructuring a major 
acquisition program like NPOESS is a process that involves reassessing 
and redefining the program's deliverables, costs, and schedules, and 
renegotiating the contract. The restructuring process also involves 
revising important acquisition documents such as the tri-agency 
memorandum of agreement, the acquisition strategy, the system 
engineering plan, the integrated master schedule defining what needs to 
happen by when, and the acquisition program baseline. 

During the past year, the program redefined the program's deliverables, 
costs, and schedules, and renegotiated the NPOESS contract. To do so, 
the program developed a new program plan and conducted an integrated 
baseline review of the entire program, which validated that the new 
deliverables, costs, and schedules were feasible. It also completed key 
acquisition documents including the system engineering plan and the 
integrated master schedule. The program and the prime contractor 
renegotiated their agreement and signed a modified contract in July 
2007. 

However, key activities remain to be completed, including obtaining 
executive approval of key acquisition documents. Specifically, even 
though agency officials were expected to approve key acquisition 
documents by September 2007, the appropriate executives have not yet 
signed off on documents including the tri-agency memorandum of 
agreement or the acquisition strategy report. They have also not signed 
off on the acquisition program baseline, the fee management plan, the 
test and evaluation master plan, and the two-orbit program plan (a plan 
for how to use European satellite data with NPOESS). Appendix II 
provides more information on the status of these documents. 

Program officials stated that the program has been able to renegotiate 
the contract and to proceed in developing sensors and systems without 
these documents being signed because the documents have widespread 
acceptance within the three agencies. They reported that the delays are 
largely due to the complexity of obtaining approval from three 
agencies. For example, program officials reported that an organization 
within DOD suggested minor changes to the tri-agency memorandum of 
agreement after months of coordination and after it had already been 
signed by both the Secretary of Commerce and the Administrator of NASA. 
The program office has now made the recommended changes and is re- 
initiating the coordination process. In addition, NASA disagreed with 
the fee management plan because it wanted to have an incentive 
associated with the on-orbit performance of the NPP satellite. The 
program office is currently trying to address NASA's concerns, but 
stated that the current plan is in effect for this fiscal year and any 
changes would have to wait until fiscal year 2009. These disagreements 
further delay an already delayed restructuring process. Without 
executive approval of key acquisition documents, the program lacks the 
underlying commitment necessary to effectively manage a tri-agency 
program. In our prior report, we recommended that the appropriate 
executives immediately finalize key acquisition documents. This 
recommendation remains open. 

NPOESS Program Has Made Progress, but Key Milestones Have Been Delayed 
and Risks Remain: 

Over the last year, the NPOESS program has made progress by completing 
planned development and testing activities on its ground and space 
segments, but key milestones for delivering the VIIRS sensor and 
launching NPP have been delayed by about 8 months. Moving forward, 
risks remain in completing the testing of key sensors and integrating 
them on the NPP spacecraft, in resolving interagency disagreements on 
the appropriate level of system security, and in revising estimated 
costs for satellite operations and support. The program office is aware 
of these risks and is working to mitigate them, but continued problems 
could affect the program's overall schedule and cost. Given the tight 
time frames for completing key sensors, integrating them on the NPP 
spacecraft, and getting the ground-based data processing system 
developed, tested, and deployed, it is important for the NPOESS 
Integrated Program Office, the Program Executive Office, and the 
Executive Committee to continue to provide close oversight of 
milestones and risks. 

Ground Segment--Progress Has Been Made, but Important Work Remains to 
Be Done: 

Development of the ground segment--which includes the interface data 
processing system, the ground stations that are to receive satellite 
data, and the ground-based command, control, and communications system-
-is under way and on track. For example, the Interface Data Processing 
System has been installed at one of the two locations that are to 
receive NPP data, and the command, control, and communications system 
passed acceptance testing for use with NPP. However, important work in 
developing the algorithms that translate satellite data into weather 
products within the integrated data processing segment remains to be 
completed. Table 6 describes each of the components of the ground 
segment and identifies the program-provided risk level and status of 
each. 

Table 6: Status of Ground Segment Components: 

Ground segment component/description: Interface Data Processing System 
(IDPS); A ground-based system that is to process the sensors' data so 
that they are usable by the data processing centers and the broader 
community of environmental data users. IDPS will be deployed at the 
four weather data processing centers; 
Program-identified risk level: Low; 
Status: IDPS software is being developed in a series of builds. In 
2007, software developers required additional resources and fell behind 
schedule on build 1.5 activities due to unanticipated complexities in 
developing algorithms that will make use of data collected by the Ozone 
mapper/profiler suite in orbit--as well as late delivery of key 
information on this instrument. As of January 2008, IDPS build 1.5 had 
been developed and was undergoing testing to check the quality of its 
performance; additional builds are planned to be developed prior to 
launch and will be used with NPP. In January 2008, IDPS hardware was 
installed at one of the data processing centers (NOAA's National 
Satellite Operations Facility in Suitland, Maryland) and is expected to 
be installed at the Air Force Weather Agency in the spring. In 
addition, the Air Force Weather Agency has begun early testing of 
NPOESS data. Site acceptance testing for NPP is scheduled to be 
completed in December 2008. 

Ground segment component/description: Ground stations for receiving 
satellite data; 15 unmanned ground stations around the world (called 
SafetyNetï¿½) are to receive satellite data and send it to the four data 
processing centers; 
Program-identified risk level: Low; 
Status: NOAA is working with domestic and foreign authorities to obtain 
approval to operate ground stations to receive satellite data. 
According to agency officials, the full complement of ground stations 
will not be in place in time for the first NPOESS satellite launch. The 
ground stations will be phased in by the launch of the second 
satellite. To date, the program office has reached agreement with 4 of 
15 ground station sites. 

Ground segment component/description: Command, control, and 
communications segment; Performs the day-to-day monitoring and command 
of the spacecraft and sensors; 
Program-identified risk level: Low; 
Status: The command, control, and communications segment is being 
developed in a series of builds. In August 2007, build 1.4 transitioned 
from development to operations and support. In addition, the command, 
control, and communications acceptance testing for NPP has been 
completed. 

Source: GAO summary of NPOESS program office data. 

[End of table] 

Using contractor-provided data, our analysis of the earned value data 
for the ground segment indicates that cost and schedule performance 
were generally on track between March 2007 and February 2008 (see fig. 
7). Between these dates, the contractor completed slightly more work 
than planned on both the IDPS and command, control, and communications 
components. In addition, the contractor finished slightly over budget 
for the IDPS component and slightly under budget for the command, 
control, and communications component. This caused cost and schedule 
variances that were less than 1 percent off of expectations. 

Figure 7: Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variances for the NPOESS Ground 
Segment over a 12-month Period: 

[See PDF for image] 

This figure is a multiple line graph depicting the following data: 

Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variances for the NPOESS Ground Segment 
over a 12-month Period: 

Date: March 7, 2007; 
Cost variance: $0.5 million; 
Schedule variance: $0.2 million. 

Date: April 7, 2007; 
Cost variance: $0.7 million; 
Schedule variance: 0. 

Date: May 7, 2007; 
Cost variance: $0.9 million; 
Schedule variance: 0. 

Date: June 7, 2007; 
Cost variance: $0.4 million; 
Schedule variance: -$0.1 million. 

Date: July 7, 2007; 
Cost variance: $0.4 million; 
Schedule variance: -$0.1 million. 

Date: August 7, 2007; 
Cost variance: $0.5 million; 
Schedule variance: -$0.2 million. 

Date: September 7, 2007; 
Cost variance: $0.3 million; 
Schedule variance: $0.3 million. 

Date: October 7, 2007; 
Cost variance: $0.1 million; 
Schedule variance: $0.3 million. 

Date: November 7, 2007; 
Cost variance: $0.3 million; 
Schedule variance: $0.4 million. 

Date: December 7, 2007; 
Cost variance: -$0.6 million; 
Schedule variance: $0.2 million. 

Date: January 8, 2008; 
Cost variance: $0.3 million; 
Schedule variance: $0.3 million. 

Date: February 8, 2008; 
Cost variance: $0.4 million; 
Schedule variance: $0.2 million. 

Source: GAO analysis based on contractor data. 

[End of figure] 

Space Segment: Progress Made, but One Sensor Has Been Delayed and 
Sensors Continue to Face Risks: 

Over the past year, the program made progress on the development of the 
space segment, which includes the sensors and the spacecraft. Five 
sensors are of critical importance because they are to be launched on 
the NPP satellite.[Footnote 12] Initiating work on another sensor, the 
Microwave Imager Sounder, is also important because this new sensor-- 
which is to replace the canceled Conical-scanned microwave imager/ 
sounder sensor--will need to be developed in time for the second NPOESS 
satellite launch. Among other activities, the program has successfully 
completed ambient testing of the VIIRS flight unit, structural 
vibration testing of the flight unit of the Cross-track infrared 
sounder, risk reduction testing of the flight unit of the Ozone mapper/ 
profiler suite, and thermal testing of the NPP spacecraft with three 
sensors on board.[Footnote 13] In addition, the program made decisions 
on how to proceed with the Microwave imager sounder and plans to 
contract with a government laboratory by the end of April 2008. 

However, the program experienced problems on VIIRS, including poor 
workmanship on selected subcomponents and delays in completing key 
tests. These issues delayed VIIRS delivery to the NPP contractor by 8 
months. This late delivery will in turn delay the NPP launch from late 
September 2009 to early June 2010. This delay in NPP shortens the time 
available for incorporating lessons learned from NPP while it is in 
orbit into future NPOESS missions and could lead to gaps in the 
continuity of climate and weather data if predecessor satellites fail 
prematurely. Also, the Cross-track infrared sounder sensor experienced 
a cost overrun and schedule delays as the contractor worked to recover 
from a structural failure. The status and risk level of each of the 
components of the space segment is described in table 7. 

Table 7: Status of Selected Components of the Space Segment, as of 
January 2008: 

Space segment component: Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite; 
Program-identified risk level: High; 
Status: In April 2007, we reported that the contractor had identified a 
problem with the VIIRS baseline filter during environmental testing 
that caused degraded performance in the filter's image quality. 
Specifically, this problem involves light leaking across the seams of 
the filter, resulting in inaccurate measurements of ocean color. In 
October 2007, the NPOESS Executive Committee decided to continue sensor 
development with the baseline filter because changing it would increase 
risks to sensor development, delay the delivery of the sensor, and risk 
delays to the launch of NPP. An improved VIIRS filter is planned to be 
included on the flight units on future NPOESS missions. More recently, 
the VIIRS contractor experienced problems with workmanship on 
electrical and cryoradiator components and delays in executing 
tests.[A] These factors slowed the sensor's development. The VIIRS 
flight unit was originally scheduled to be delivered to NPP by July 
2008, but due to technical issues and testing schedule delays, VIIRS' 
delivery to NPP is now planned for April 2009. 

Space segment component: Cross-track infrared sounder (CrIS); 
Program- identified risk level: Moderate; 
Status: In April 2007, we reported that development of CrIS was put on 
hold in October 2006 when the flight unit designated to go on NPP 
experienced a major structural failure during its vibration testing. 
Acceptance testing began again in mid-2007, and the structural 
stability of the frame was approved in August 2007. The flight unit is 
currently undergoing thermal vacuum testing. The flight unit was 
expected to be delivered to NPP by February 2008, but it is now 
expected to be delivered in May 2008. 

Space segment component: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (nadir and limb); 
Program-identified risk level: Low; 
Status: In April 2007, program officials had agreed to fund the 
reintegration of the limb component on NPP. By December 2007, the first 
flight unit completed key integration risk reduction testing. It is 
expected to be delivered to the NPP contractor for integration in 
August 2008. 

Space segment component: Advanced technology microwave sounder; 
Program-identified risk level: Low; 
Status: The flight unit for NPP was developed by a NASA contractor and 
delivered to the program in October 2005. The NPP contractor integrated 
the flight unit on the spacecraft in December 2006 and is awaiting 
delivery of the other sensors in order to complete integration testing. 

Space segment component: Clouds and the earth's radiant energy system; 
Program-identified risk level: Not yet rated; 
Status: In January 2008, the NPOESS Executive Committee approved 
including this instrument on NPP. The sensor has already been built but 
requires some refurbishment. It is expected to be delivered to the NPP 
spacecraft for integration in October 2008. In January 2008, the 
program office was directed to develop an additional sensor for the C1 
satellite. 

Space segment component: Microwave imager/sounder; 
Program-identified risk level: Not yet rated; 
Status: A new microwave imager/sounder sensor is being planned to 
replace the canceled Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder. The 
program office anticipates awarding a contract to develop the sensor by 
the end of April 2008. 

Space segment component: Spacecraft; 
Program-identified risk level: Low; 
Status: Both the development of the spacecraft for NPP and the 
spacecraft for NPOESS are on track. The NPP spacecraft was completed in 
June 2005. The NPP contractor has completed over a year's worth of risk 
reduction activities, which included thermal testing of the spacecraft 
with three of the sensors on board. A preliminary audit of the 
spacecraft design for NPOESS was completed on schedule in November 
2007. However, a remaining risk involves a key control system, which 
has caused a labor increase and is taking longer than anticipated to 
resolve. The critical design review of the first NPOESS spacecraft is 
scheduled to be completed in April 2009, with the launch date scheduled 
for January 2013. 

Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS Integrated Program Office data. 

[A] The cryoradiator is a key component of the VIIRS sensor. It is 
intended to cool down components of the sensor. 

[End of table] 

Our analysis of contractor-provided earned value data showed that the 
NPOESS space segment has experienced negative cost and schedule 
variances between March 2007 and February 2008 (see fig. 8). 
Specifically, the contractor exceeded cost targets for the space 
segment by $15.1 million --which is 5.1 percent of the $298.2 million 
space segment budget for that time period. Similarly, the contractor 
was unable to complete $2 million worth of work in the space segment-- 
which is less than 1 percent of the space segment budget for that time 
period. 

Figure 8: Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variance for the NPOESS Space 
Segment over a 12-Month Period: 

[See PDF for image] 

This figure is a multiple line graph depicting the following data: 

Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variance for the NPOESS Space Segment over 
a 12-Month Period: 

Date: March 2007; 
Cost variance: -$0.1 million; 
Schedule variance: -$0.5 million. 

Date: April 2007; 
Cost variance: $0.5 million; 
Schedule variance: -$1.5 million. 

Date: May 2007; 
Cost variance: -$1.5 million; 
Schedule variance: -$2.9 million. 

Date: June 2007; 
Cost variance: -$2.0 million; 
Schedule variance: -$1.6 million. 

Date: July 2007; 
Cost variance: -$2.4 million; 
Schedule variance: -$2.9 million. 

Date: August 2007; 
Cost variance: -$5.8 million; 
Schedule variance: -$4.4 million. 

Date: September 2007; 
Cost variance: -$7.9 million; 
Schedule variance: -$6.8 million. 

Date: October 2007; 
Cost variance: -$11.2 million; 
Schedule variance: -$7.3 million. 

Date: November 2007; 
Cost variance: -$12.3 million; 
Schedule variance: -$5.2 million. 

Date: December 2007; 
Cost variance: -$17.4 million; 
Schedule variance: -$3.4 million. 

Date: January 2008; 
Cost variance: -$14.5 million; 
Schedule variance: -$1.5 million. 

Date: February 2008; 
Cost variance: -$15.1 million; 
Schedule variance: -$2 million. 

Source: GAO analysis based on contractor data. 

[End of figure] 

Program Risks Remain; Continued Oversight Is Needed to Prevent Further 
Cost Increases and Schedule Delays: 

Moving forward, the program continues to face risks. Over the next 2 
years, it will need to complete the development of the key sensors, 
test them, integrate and test them on the NPP spacecraft, and test 
these systems with the ground-based data processing systems. In 
addition, the program faces two other issues that could affect its 
overall schedule and cost. One is that there continues to be 
disagreement between NOAA and DOD on the appropriate level of system 
security. To date, NPOESS has been designed and developed to meet DOD's 
standards for a mission essential system, but NOAA officials believe 
that the system should be built to meet more stringent standards. 
Implementing more stringent standards could cause rework and retesting, 
and potentially affect the cost and schedule of the system. Another 
issue is that program life cycle costs could increase once a better 
estimate of the cost of operations and support is known. The $12.5 
billion estimated life cycle cost for NPOESS includes a rough estimate 
of $1 billion for operations and support. Program officials have 
identified the potential for this cost to grow as a moderate risk. 

The NPOESS program office is working closely with the contractor and 
subcontractors to resolve these program risks. To address sensor risks, 
the program office and officials from NASA's Goddard Space Flight 
Center commissioned an independent review team to assess the 
thoroughness and adequacy of practices being used in the assembly, 
integration, and testing of the VIIRS and CrIS instruments in 
preparation for the NPP spacecraft. The team found that the contractors 
for both sensors had sound test programs in place, but noted risks with 
VIIRS's schedule and with CrIS's reliability and performance. The 
program office adjusted the VIIRS testing schedule and is monitoring 
the CrIS testing results. In addition, the program office recently 
instituted biweekly senior-level management meetings to review progress 
on VIIRS's development, and program officials noted that both the prime 
contractor and the program executive office will have senior officials 
onsite at the contractor's facility to provide extensive, day-to-day 
oversight of management activities to assist in resolving issues. 

To address the risk posed by changing security requirements late in the 
system's development, program officials commissioned a study to 
determine the effect of more stringent standards on the system. This 
study was completed by the end of March 2008, but has not yet been 
released. To address the risk of cost growth due to poor estimates of 
operations and support costs, DOD's cost analysis group is currently 
refining this estimate. A revised estimate is expected by June 2008. 

The program office is aware of program risks and is working to mitigate 
them, but continued problems could affect the program's overall 
schedule and cost. Given the tight time frames for completing key 
sensors, integrating them on the NPP spacecraft, and getting the ground-
based data processing system developed, tested, and deployed, it is 
important for the NPOESS program office, the Program Executive Office, 
and the Executive Committee to continue to provide close oversight of 
milestones and risks. 

Program Office Identified Preferred Timelines for Decisions on 
Restoring Sensors to NPOESS: 

When the Nunn-McCurdy restructuring agreement removed certain sensors 
from NPOESS, the program was instructed to plan for the reintegration 
of those sensors. Specifically, the certification decision directed the 
program to build each NPOESS spacecraft with enough room and power to 
accommodate the sensors that were removed from the program and to fund 
the integration and testing of any sensors that are later restored. 
Agency sponsors external to the program are responsible for justifying 
and funding the sensor's development, while the NPOESS Executive 
Committee has the final decision on whether to include the sensor on a 
specific satellite. Table 8 denotes sensors that were canceled under 
the Nunn-McCurdy agreement, but could be restored to the different 
satellites. 

Table 8: Sensors That Could be Restored to NPOESS Satellites: 

Sensor: Aerosol polarimetry sensor; 
NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for 
this satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for 
this satellite. 

Sensor: Advanced technology microwave sounder; 
NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite. 

Sensor: Cross-track infrared sounder; 
NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Currently planned for this satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite. 

Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor; 
NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for 
this satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for 
this satellite. 

Sensor: OMPS (limb); 
NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for 
this satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for 
this satellite. 

Sensor: Radar altimeter; 
NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for 
this satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite. 

Sensor: Space environmental sensor suite; 
NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite. 

Sensor: Survivability sensor; 
NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite. 

Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor; 
NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite; 
NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for 
this satellite; 
NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite. 

Source: GAO analysis of agency data. 

Note: In order to mitigate risks, program officials do not plan to 
consider any changes to the first NPOESS satellite (C1). 

[End of table] 

The NPOESS program office has requested that any entities that plan to 
restore a sensor to an NPOESS satellite provide them 6 years' notice. 
This includes 4 years for the sensor to be developed and tested, and 2 
years for integration and testing on the spacecraft. Table 9 provides a 
listing of dates based on current launch dates for each NPOESS 
satellite. 

Table 9: Program's Timelines for Restoring Canceled Sensors: 

Satellite: C1[A]; 
Sensor notice preferred by (date): n/a; 
Sensor needed for integration and testing: n/a; 
Planned satellite launch: January 2013. 

Satellite: C2; 
Sensor notice preferred by (date): January 2010; 
Sensor needed for integration and testing: January 2014; 
Planned satellite launch: January 2016. 

Satellite: C3; 
Sensor notice preferred by (date): January 2012; 
Sensor needed for integration and testing: January 2016; 
Planned satellite launch: January 2018. 

Satellite: C4; 
Sensor notice preferred by (date): January 2014; 
Sensor needed for integration and testing: January 2018; 
Planned satellite launch: January 2020. 

Source: NPOESS Integrated Program Office. 

[A] In order to mitigate risks, program officials do not plan to 
consider changes to the first NPOESS satellite (C1). 

[End of table] 

The program office developed its tentative timelines using historical 
data for similar programs, but program officials reported that more or 
less time might be required depending on the status of the sensor to be 
added. For example, a sensor based on existing sensors may require less 
time, while a more advanced sensor could require more time. 

Agencies Have Undertaken Preliminary Steps to Restore Key Sensors, but 
Lack Timely Plans to Ensure Long-Term Data Continuity: 

NASA, NOAA, and DOD have taken preliminary steps to restore the 
capabilities of selected climate and space weather sensors that were 
degraded or removed from the NPOESS program by prioritizing the 
sensors, assessing options for restoring them, and making decisions to 
restore two sensors in order to mitigate near-term data gaps. However, 
the agencies have not yet developed plans to mitigate the loss of these 
sensors on a long-term basis. Best practices in strategic planning 
suggest that agencies develop and implement long-term plans to guide 
their short-term activities. Until such plans are developed, the 
agencies may lose their windows of opportunity for selecting cost- 
effective options or they may resort to an ad hoc approach to restoring 
these sensors. Lacking plans almost 2 years after key sensors were 
removed from the NPOESS program, the agencies face increased risk of 
gaps in the continuity of climate and space environment data. 

While NPOESS was originally envisioned to provide only weather 
observations, this mission was later expanded to include long-term 
continuity for key climate data. Maintaining the continuity of climate 
and space data over decades is important to identify long-term 
environmental cycles (such as the 11-year solar cycle and multiyear 
ocean cycles including the El Niï¿½o effect) and their impacts, and to 
detect trends in climate change and global warming. The Nunn-McCurdy 
restructuring decision removed four sensors[Footnote 14] and degraded 
the functionality of four other sensors that were to provide these 
data. DOD, NASA, and NOAA are now responsible for determining what to 
restore, how to restore it, and the means for doing so. This 
responsibility includes justifying the additional funding needed to 
develop these sensors within their respective agencies' investment 
decision processes. Best practices of leading organizations call for 
defining a strategic plan to formalize priorities and plans for meeting 
mission goals. Such a plan would include the agency's long-term goals 
for climate and space weather measurements, the short-term activities 
needed to attain these goals, and the milestones and resources needed 
to support the planned activities. 

NASA, NOAA, and DOD Have Identified Priorities, Assessed Options, and 
Made Decisions to Restore Two Sensors: 

Since the June 2006 restructuring, NASA, NOAA, and DOD have taken 
preliminary steps to restore sensor capabilities by determining 
priorities for restoring sensor capabilities, assessing options for 
obtaining sensor data over time, and making decisions to restore 
selected sensors. Specifically, in August 2006, the NPOESS Senior User 
Advisory Group--a group representing NASA, NOAA, and DOD system users-
-assessed the impact of the canceled or degraded sensors and identified 
priorities for restoring them. In January 2007, a NOAA and NASA working 
group on climate sensors prioritized which of the sensors were most 
important to restore for climate purposes and proposed possible 
solutions and mitigation efforts. In addition, the National Research 
Council (NRC) reported on the impact of the canceled sensors.[Footnote 
15] Table 10 summarizes the results of these studies. 

Table 10: Summary of Studies on Impacts of the Loss of Sensors and 
Priorities for Restoring Them: 

Sensor/Description: Aerosol polarimetry sensor; 
Likely impact of sensor loss: 
* Decreased ability to improve air quality monitoring over time; 
* Decreased ability to improve understanding of aerosol's impact on the 
earth's radiation budget; that is, whether aerosols play a role in 
global warming; 
* Decreased ability to study the global distribution of aerosols and 
the impact of aerosols on climate; 
* Decreased ability to improve military munitions targeting and 
intelligence collection; 
Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: 6; 
NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 7. 

Sensor/Description: Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder, to be 
replaced by the Microwave imager/sounder; 
Likely impact of sensor loss: 
* Cancellation of the Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder raised 
concerns about the loss of critical environmental data including sea 
surface temperatures, ice and snow cover, and ocean surface wind speed; 
* The Microwave imager/sounder is intended to replace the Conical-
scanned microwave imager/sounder. However, because the new sensor's 
capabilities have not yet been fully defined, the impact of the 
cancellation of the Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder is not 
clear; 
Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: 5; 
NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 2. 

Sensor/Description: Earth radiation budget sensor (being replaced on 
selected satellites by an existing sensor, the Clouds and the earth's 
radiant energy system); 
Likely impact of sensor loss: 
* Decreased ability to measure the amount of energy entering and 
leaving the earth; 
* Reduced ability to determine the causes of climate variability and 
change; 
* Disruption of an over 28-year measurement heritage of earth radiation 
budget data, which is needed to assess long-term trends; 
Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: 2; 
NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 6. 

Sensor/Description: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb); 
Likely impact of sensor loss: 
* Decreased ability to understand the health of the ozone layer which 
absorbs solar ultraviolet radiation that is potentially harmful to 
humans; 
* Decreased ability to improve global warming and air quality models to 
differentiate the impact of changing ozone levels within the 
atmosphere; 
Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: 4; 
NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 4. 

Sensor/Description: Space environmental sensor suite (to be replaced on 
selected satellites by an existing technology sensor, the Space 
environment monitor); 
Likely impact of sensor loss: 
* Decreased understanding of the effect of space weather on military 
and civilian communications and electrical systems; 
* Decreased situational awareness for missile intercept capabilities; 
Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: unranked; 
NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 1. 

Sensor/Description: Total solar irradiance sensor; 
Likely impact of sensor loss: 
* Decreased ability to understand the influence of natural causes of 
climate change; 
* Disruption of an over 28-year measurement heritage of solar 
irradiance data, which is needed to assess long-term trends; 
Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: 1; 
NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 5. 

Sensor/Description: Radar altimeter; 
Likely impact of sensor loss: 
* Reduced number of sea surface height and other ocean measurements 
used in climate monitoring; 
* Decreased ability to measure sea-air interactions that affect 
regional weather patterns, such as El Niï¿½o; 
* Decreased understanding of storm intensification (e.g., hurricanes), 
coastal turbulence, and underwater features important to sailors; 
Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: 3; 
NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 3. 

Sensor/Description: Survivability sensor; 
Likely impact of sensor loss: 
* Sensor was to identify possible threats to the NPOESS spacecraft and 
has no impact on climate observations; 
Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: unranked; 
NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 8. 

Source: GAO analysis of NASA, NOAA, DOD, and NRC data. 

[End of table] 

In addition to prioritizing the sensors, NASA, NOAA, and DOD identified 
a variety of options for obtaining key sensor data over the next two 
decades and continue to seek other options. The agencies identified 
options including adding sensors back to a later NPOESS satellite, 
adding sensors to another planned satellite, and developing a new 
satellite to include several of the sensors. Examples of options for 
several sensors are provided in figure 9. In addition, in December 
2007, NOAA released a request for information to determine whether 
commercial providers could include selected environmental sensors on 
their satellites. 

Figure 9: Selected Options for Restoring Selected Climate Sensors, as 
of January 2008: 

[See PDF for image] 

This figure is an illustration of selected options for restoring 
selected climate sensors, as of January 2008, as follows: 

Sensor: Aerosol polarimetry sensor; 
Mission: Glory [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2009-2013. 

Sensor: Aerosol polarimetry sensor; 
Mission: NPOESS C1 [Current or planned mission that will carry 
sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2013-2019. 

Sensor: Aerosol polarimetry sensor; 
Mission: NPOESS C3 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2018-2024. 

Sensor: Aerosol polarimetry sensor; 
Mission: Climate Sat 2 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2020-2025. 

Sensor: Altimeter; 
Mission: Jason-1 [Current or planned mission that will carry 
sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2007-2009. 

Sensor: Altimeter; 
Mission: OSTM [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2008-2013. 

Sensor: Altimeter; 
Mission: Jason-3 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2013-2016. 

Sensor: Altimeter; 
Mission: NPOESS C2 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2016-2022. 

Sensor: Altimeter; 
Mission: Jason-4/Adv Alt 1 [Possible mission that could carry 
sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2017-2020. 

Sensor: Altimeter; 
Mission: NPOESS C4 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)];
Year: 2020-2026. 

Sensor: Altimeter; 
Mission: Jason-X/Adv Alt X [Possible mission that could carry 
sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2021-2024. 

Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor/Clouds and the earth's radiant 
energy system; 
Mission: Terra, Aqua [Current or planned mission that will carry 
sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2007-2009. 

Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor/Clouds and the earth's radiant 
energy system; 
Mission: NPP [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2010-2016. 

Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor/Clouds and the earth's radiant 
energy system; 
Mission: NPOESS C1 [Current or planned mission that will carry 
sensor(s)); 
Year: 2013-2019. 

Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor/Clouds and the earth's radiant 
energy system; 
Mission: Climate Sat 1 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2014-2019. 

Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor/Clouds and the earth's radiant 
energy system; 
Mission: NPOESS C3 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2018-2024. 

Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor/Clouds and the earth's radiant 
energy system; 
Mission: Climate Sat 2 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2020-2025. 

Sensor: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb); 
Mission: Aura [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2007-2009. 

Sensor: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb); 
Mission: NPP [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2010-2016. 

Sensor: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb); 
Mission: NPOESS C1 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2013-2019. 

Sensor: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb); 
Mission: Climate Sat 1 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2014-2019. 

Sensor: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb); 
Mission: NPOESS C3 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2018-2024. 

Sensor: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb); 
Mission: Climate Sat 2 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2020-2025. 

Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor; 
Mission: SORCE [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2007-2013. 

Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor; 
Mission: Glory [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2009-2013. 

Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor; 
Mission: LandSat Data Continuity Mission [Planned mission that could 
carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2011-2017. 

Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor; 
Mission: Climate Sat 1 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2014-2019. 

Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor; 
Mission: NPOESS C2 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2016-2022. 

Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor; 
Mission: Flight of opportunity [Possible mission that could carry 
sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2017-2022. 

Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor; 
Mission: Climate Sat 2 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2020-2025. 

Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor; 
Mission: NPOESS C4 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)]; 
Year: 2020-2026. 

Source: DOD, NASA, and NOAA data. 

Notes: The satellites Terra, Aqua, Aura, Glory, and the Solar radiation 
and climate experiment (SORCE) are all NASA missions. The Landsat data 
continuity mission is a joint mission between NASA and the U.S. 
Geological Survey, Jason-1 is a joint mission between NASA and France, 
and the Ocean surface topography mission (OSTM) is a joint mission 
between NASA, NOAA, France, and the European Organization for the 
Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites. 

The MIS sensor is not included in this chart because NOAA, NASA, and 
DOD have already agreed to include it on the second, third, and fourth 
NPOESS satellites. Options for the Space environment sensor suite/Space 
environment monitor and the Survivability sensor are not included 
because DOD has not yet released them. 

[End of figure] 

In addition to prioritizing sensors and identifying options, over the 
last year, NASA, NOAA, and DOD have taken steps to restore two sensors 
on a near-term basis. Specifically, in April 2007, the NPOESS Executive 
Committee decided to restore the limb component of the Ozone mapper/ 
profiler suite to the NPP satellite and, in January 2008, to add the 
Clouds and the earth's radiant energy system to NPP. These decisions 
are expected to provide continuity for these sensors through 
approximately 2015. NASA officials noted that they also took steps to 
mitigate a potential gap in total solar irradiance data by proposing to 
fund an additional 4 years of the SORCE mission (from 2008 to 2012). 

Agencies Lack Plans to Ensure Long-Term Data Continuity: 

While NASA, NOAA, and DOD have taken preliminary steps to address the 
climate and space sensors that were removed from the NPOESS program 
almost 2 years ago, they do not yet have plans for restoring climate 
and space environment data on a long-term basis. The Office of Science 
and Technology Policy, an organization within the Executive Office of 
the President, is currently working with NASA, NOAA, and DOD to sort 
through the costs and benefits of the various options and to develop 
plans. However, this effort has been under way for almost 2 years and 
officials could not estimate when such plans would be completed. 

Delays in developing a comprehensive strategy for ensuring climate and 
space data continuity may result in the loss of selected options. For 
example, NASA and NOAA estimated that they would need to make a 
decision on whether to include a Total solar irradiance sensor on its 
planned Landsat Data Continuity Mission by March 2008, and on whether 
to build another satellite to obtain ocean altimeter data in 2008. 
Also, the NPOESS program office estimated that if any sensors are to be 
restored to an NPOESS satellite, it would need a decision about 6 years 
in advance of the planned satellite launch. Specifically, for a sensor 
to be included on the second NPOESS satellite, the sponsoring agency 
would need to commit to do so by January 2010. 

Without a timely decision on a plan for restoring satellite data on a 
long-term basis, NASA, NOAA, and DOD risk losing their windows of 
opportunity on selected options and restoring sensors in an ad hoc 
manner. Ultimately, the agencies risk a break in the continuity of 
climate and space environment data. As national and international 
concerns about climate change and global warming grow, these data are 
more important than ever to try to understand long-term climate trends 
and impacts. 

Conclusions: 

Over the past year, program officials have completed major activities 
associated with restructuring the NPOESS program and have made progress 
in developing and testing sensors, ground systems, and the NPP 
spacecraft. However, agency executives have still not signed off on key 
acquisition documents that were to be completed in September 2007, and 
one critical sensor has experienced technical problems and schedule 
delays that have led program officials to delay the NPP launch date by 
about 8 months. Any delay in the NPP launch date shortens the time 
available for incorporating lessons learned from NPP onto future NPOESS 
missions and could also lead to gaps in critical climate and weather 
data. 

When selected climate and space weather sensors were removed from the 
NPOESS program during its restructuring, NASA, NOAA, and DOD became 
responsible for determining what sensors to restore and how to restore 
them. This responsibility includes justifying the additional funding 
needed to develop these sensors within their respective agency's 
investment decision processes. In the 2 years since the restructuring, 
the agencies have identified their priorities and assessed their 
options for restoring sensor capabilities. In addition, the agencies 
made decisions to restore two sensors to the NPP satellite in order to 
mitigate near-term data gaps. However, the agencies lack plans for 
restoring sensor capabilities on a long-term basis. Without a timely 
decision on a long-term plan for restoring satellite data, the agencies 
risk a break in the continuity of climate and space environment data. 
With the increased concern about climate change and global warming, 
these data are more important than ever to try to understand long-term 
climate trends and impacts. 

Recommendations for Executive Action: 

In order to bring closure to efforts that have been under way for 
years, we are making recommendations to the Secretaries of Commerce and 
Defense and to the Administrator of NASA to establish plans on whether 
and how to restore the climate and space sensors removed from the 
NPOESS program by June 2009, in cases where the sensors are warranted 
and justified. 

In addition, we are reemphasizing our prior recommendation that the 
appropriate NASA, NOAA, and DOD executives immediately finalize key 
acquisition documents. 

Agency Comments: 

We received written comments on a draft of this report from the 
Secretary of the Department of Commerce (see app. III), the Deputy 
Assistant Secretary for Networks and Information Integration of the 
Department of Defense (see app. IV), and the Associate Administrator 
for the Science Mission Directorate of the National Aeronautics and 
Space Administration (see app. V). In their comments, all three 
agencies concurred with our recommendations. In addition, both the 
Department of Commerce and NASA reiterated that they are working with 
their partner agencies to finalize plans for restoring sensors to 
address the nation's long-term needs for continuity of climate 
measurements. Further, Commerce noted that DOD and NASA executives need 
to weigh in to resolve issues at, or immediately below, their levels in 
order to ensure prompt completion of the key acquisition documents. 
NASA noted that difficulties in gaining consensus across all three 
NPOESS agencies have delayed the signature of key acquisition 
documents, and reported that they are committed to moving these 
documents through the signature cycle once all of the issues and 
concerns are resolved. 

All three agencies also provided technical comments, which we have 
incorporated in this report as appropriate. 

As agreed with your offices, unless you publicly announce the contents 
of this report earlier, we plan no further distribution until 30 days 
from the report date. At that time, we will send copies of this report 
to interested congressional committees, the Secretary of Commerce, the 
Secretary of Defense, the Administrator of NASA, the Director of the 
Office of Management and Budget, and other interested parties. In 
addition, this report will be available at no charge on our Web site at 
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov]. 

If you have any questions on matters discussed in this report, please 
contact me at (202) 512-9286 or by e-mail at [email protected]. Contact 
points for our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs 
may be found on the last page of this report. GAO staff who made major 
contributions to this report are listed in appendix VI. 

Signed by: 

David A. Powner: 
Director, Information Technology Management Issues: 

[End of section] 

Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology: 

Our objectives were to (1) evaluate the National Polar-orbiting 
Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program office's 
progress in restructuring the acquisition, (2) assess the status of key 
program components and risks, (3) identify how much notice the program 
office would need if agency sponsors outside the program choose to 
restore the eliminated or degraded sensors to the NPOESS program, and 
(4) assess plans of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration 
(NOAA), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the National Aeronautics 
and Space Administration (NASA) for obtaining the environmental data 
originally planned to be collected by NPOESS sensors, but then 
eliminated under the restructuring. 

To evaluate the NPOESS program office's progress in restructuring the 
acquisition program, we reviewed the program's Nunn-McCurdy 
certification decision memo, a later addendum to this decision, and 
program documentation including copies of required documentation, 
status briefings, and milestone progress reports. We also interviewed 
program office officials and attended senior-level management program 
review meetings to obtain information on the program's acquisition 
restructuring. 

To evaluate the status of key program components and risks, we reviewed 
program documentation associated with the program and its key 
components. We analyzed briefings and monthly program management 
documents to determine the status and risks of the program and key 
program segments. We also analyzed earned value management data 
obtained from the contractor to assess the contractor's performance 
against cost and schedule estimates. We obtained adequate assurance 
that these agency-provided data had been tested and were sufficient for 
our assessment purposes. We reviewed cost reports and program risk 
management documents and interviewed program officials to determine 
program and program segment risks that could negatively affect the 
program's ability to maintain the current schedule and cost estimates. 
We also interviewed agency officials from NASA, NOAA, DOD, and the 
NPOESS program office to determine the status and risks of the key 
program segments. Finally, we observed senior-level management review 
meetings to obtain information on the status of the NPOESS program. 

To identify how much notice the program office would need if agency 
sponsors outside the program choose to restore the eliminated or 
degraded sensors to the NPOESS program, we reviewed the restoration 
requirements in the program's Nunn-McCurdy certification decision memo 
and documentation related to the program's planning efforts. We also 
interviewed senior officials in the NPOESS program office and the 
Program Executive Office to obtain information on program plans related 
to sensor restoration, the historical basis for these time frames, and 
the flexibility of these time frames for different sensor technologies. 

To assess agency plans for obtaining the environmental data originally 
planned to be collected by NPOESS sensors but then eliminated under the 
restructuring, we reviewed reports and briefings produced by NASA, 
NOAA, DOD, and the National Research Council on the impact of 
eliminated sensors and priorities for restoring them. We also 
interviewed agency officials from NASA, NOAA, and DOD, and sought and 
received answers to questions from the Office of Science and Technology 
Policy regarding decisions to restore two sensors to the NPOESS 
Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite. 

We primarily performed our work at the NPOESS Integrated Program Office 
and at DOD, NASA, and NOAA offices in the Washington, D.C., 
metropolitan area. In addition, we conducted work at NOAA offices in 
Suitland, Maryland, and at the Air Force Weather Agency in Omaha, 
Nebraska, because these sites will be the first two sites to host the 
NPOESS data processing system and to receive NPP data. We also 
conducted audit work at the Boulder, Colorado, facility of the 
contractor that is to integrate sensors on the NPP satellite. We 
conducted this performance audit from June 2007 to April 2008 in 
accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards. 

[End of section] 

Appendix II: Status of Key Acquisition Documents: 

Table 11 identifies the key NPOESS acquisition documents as well as 
their original and revised due dates. Original due dates were specified 
in the June 2006 restructuring decision memo. The revised due dates 
were specified in an addendum to that memo, dated June 2007. Documents 
that are in bold are overdue. 

Table 11: Status of NPOESS Acquisition Documents: 

Acquisition document: Alternative Management Plan; 
Original due date: June 2007; 
Revised due date: September 1, 2007; 
Status: Completed. 

Acquisition document: Award Fee Plan/Fee Management Plan (overdue); 
Original due date: Unspecified; 
Revised due date: October 1, 2007; 
Status: Not completed. 

Acquisition document: Acquisition Program Baseline (overdue); 
Original due date: September 1, 2006; 
Revised due date: December 1, 2007; 
Status: Not completed. 

Acquisition document: Acquisition Strategy Report (overdue); 
Original due date: September 1, 2006; 
Revised due date: September 1, 2007; 
Status: Not completed. 

Acquisition document: Test and Evaluation Master Plan (overdue); 
Original due date: September 1, 2006; 
Revised due date: March 1, 2008; 
Status: Not completed. 

Acquisition document: System Engineering Plan; 
Original due date: September 1, 2006; 
Revised due date: September 1, 2007; 
Status: Completed. 

Acquisition document: Two-Orbit Plan (overdue); 
Original due date: November 15, 2006; 
Revised due date: October 1, 2007; 
Status: Not completed. 

Acquisition document: Human Capital Management Plan (to fill vacancies 
in the Integrated Program Office); 
Original due date: August 4, 2006; 
Revised due date: September 1, 2007; 
Status: Completed. 

Acquisition document: Logistics Support Plan; 
Original due date: September 2006; 
Revised due date: September 1, 2007; 
Status: Completed. 

Acquisition document: Diminishing Manufacturing Sources/Parts 
Obsolescence Plan; 
Original due date: September 2006; 
Revised due date: September 1, 2007; 
Status: Completed. 

Acquisition document: Tri-agency Memorandum of Agreement (overdue); 
Original due date: August 4, 2006; 
Revised due date: September 1, 2007; 
Status: Not completed. 

Acquisition document: Integrated Master Plan; 
Original due date: April 2007; Revised due date: 
September 1, 2007; 
Status: Completed. 

Acquisition document: Quarterly Integrated Baseline Review; 
Original due date: September 2006; 
Revised due date: September 1, 2007; 
Status: Completed. 

Source: GAO analysis of DOD and NPOESS program office data. 

[End of table] 

[End of section] 

Appendix III: Comments from the Department of Commerce: 

The Secretary Of Commerce: 
Washington, D.C. 20230: 

April 3, 2008: 

Mr. David A. Powner: 
Director: 
Information Technology Management Issues: 
U.S. Government Accountability Office: 
441 G Street, NW: 
Washington, D.C. 20548: 

Dear Mr. Powner: 

Thank you for the opportunity to review and comment on the Government 
Accountability Office's draft report entitled Environmental Satellites: 
Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on 
Whether and How to Ensure Climate Data Continuity (GAO-08-518). On 
behalf of the Department of Commerce, I enclose the National Oceanic 
and Atmospheric Administration's comments on the draft report. 

Sincerely, 

Signed by: Carlos M. Gutierrez: 

Enclosure: 

Department of Commerce: 
Comments on the Draft GAO Report Entitled "Environmental Satellites: 
Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on 
Whether and How to Ensure Climate Data Continuity" 
(GAO-08-518/April 2008): 

General Comments: 

The Department of Commerce (DOC) appreciates the opportunity to review 
this report on the National Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellite 
System (NPOESS) program. The Government Accountability Office (GAO) 
makes two recommendations, which it anticipates will bring closure to 
efforts underway. Both recommendations are directed to DOC, as well as 
to the Department of Defense (DoD) and the National Aeronautics and 
Space Administration (NASA). Overall, the report was fair and balanced 
and highlighted actions that are already underway for the program. DOC 
is committed to ensuring the successful execution of the NPOESS 
program. 

NOAA Response to GAO Recommendations: 

Recommendation 1: "In order to bring closure to efforts that have been 
underway for years, we are making recommendations to the Secretaries of 
Commerce and Defense and to the Administrator of NASA to establish 
plans on whether and how to restore the climate and space sensors 
removed from the NPOESS program by June 2009, in cases where the 
sensors are warranted and justified." 

NOAA Response: NOAA concurs with the recommendation and continues to 
work with NASA, the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), and 
the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on long-term plans to restore 
the climate sensors de-manifested from the NPOESS program. This 
supplements coordination with DoD and NASA as part of the triagency 
NPOESS Executive Committee. The FY 2009 President's Budget demonstrates 
this commitment by advancing plans already underway to re-manifest two 
key climate sensors through at least FY 2013. NOAA continues to work to 
finalize plans for restoring additional sensors, in coordination with 
NASA, OSTP, OMB, and DoD to address the nation's long-term need for 
continuity of these critical climate measurements. 

Recommendation 2: "In addition, we are reemphasizing our prior 
recommendation that the appropriate NASA, NOAA, and DOD executives 
immediately finalize key acquisition documents." 

NOAA Response: NOAA concurs with this recommendation. Executive 
attention and prompt resolution of the issues surrounding the 
documentation required by the Acquisition Decision Memorandum is 
required. All acquisition decision memorandum documents are proceeding 
through coordination at DOC, DoD and NASA. DoD and NASA executives need 
to weigh in to resolve issues at or immediately below their level. 

[End of section] 

Appendix IV: Comments from the Department of Defense: 

Office Of The Assistant Secretary Of Defense: 
Networks And Information Integration: 
6000 Defense Pentagon: 
Washington, DC 20301-6000: 

April 1, 2008: 

Mr. David A. Powner
Director, Information Technology and Management Issues: 
U.S. Government Accountability Office: 
441 G Street, N.W.
Washington, D.C. 20548: 

Dear Mr. Powner, 

This is the Department of Defense (DoD) response to the GAO Draft 
Report, GAO-08-518, "Environmental Satellites: Polar-orbiting Satellite 
Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on Whether and How to Ensure 
Climate Data Continuity," dated March 6, 2008 (GAO Code 310848). 

The DoD acknowledges receipt of this draft report and concurs with GAO 
recommendations (attached). 

Signed by: 

Dr. Ronald C. Jost: 
Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (C3, Space and Spectrum): 

Enclosure(s): As stated: 

GAO Draft Report Dated March 6, 2008: 
GAO-08-518 (GAO Code 310848) 

"Environmental Satellites: Polar-Orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces 
Delays; Decisions Needed On Whether And How To Ensure Climate Data 
Continuity" 

Department Of Defense Comments To The GAO Recommendations: 

General Comments: The report recognizes the positive effects of the 
restructured management for the program and also recognizes the 
significant work ahead on the program. The draft GAO findings are 
technically and programmatically consistent with the current NPOESS 
program, 

Recommendation 1: The GAO recommends that the Secretary of Defense 
establish plans on whether and how to restore the climate and space 
sensors removed from the National Polar-orbiting Operational 
Environmental Satellite System program by June 2009, in cases where the 
sensors are warranted and justified. (Page 43/GAO Draft Report) 

DOD Response: Concur. 

Recommendation 2: In addition, the GAO is reemphasizing a prior 
recommendation that the appropriate NASA, NOAA, and DoD executives 
immediately finalize key acquisition documents. (Page 43/GAO Draft 
Report) 

DOD Response: Concur. The System Engineering Plan was approved on 8 Nov 
07. 

Attachment: 

[End of section] 

Appendix V: Comments from the National Aeronautics and Space 
Administration: 

National Aeronautics and Space Administration: 
Headquarters: 
Washington, DC 20546-0001: 

Reply to Attn of: SMD/Earth Science Division: 

Mr. David A. Powner: 
Director: 
Information Technology Management Issues: 
Government Accountability Office: 
Washington, DC 20548: 

Dear Mr. Powner: 

Thank you for the opportunity to review your draft report entitled 
"Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces Delays: Decisions Needed on 
Whether and How to Ensure Climate Data Continuity," (GAO-08-518) 
specific to the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental 
Satellite System (NPOESS) program. The draft report contains two 
recommendations applicable to NASA and we concur with both of these 
recommendations. 

We agree with the importance of signing the programmatic documentation 
across all agencies. As documented in previous reports, the difficulty 
of gaining consensus across all three NPOESS agencies has delayed the 
signature on the remaining documents. We are committed to moving these 
documents through the signature cycle as quickly as possible once all 
of the issues and concerns are resolved. 

With respect to a long-term plan for flying the demanifested NPOESS 
sensors, NASA has taken significant steps to fly the Ozone Mapping and 
Profiling Suite (OMPS) Limb sensor and the Clouds and the Earth's 
Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensors on the NPOESS Preparatory Project 
(NPP) in order to mitigate the possibility of near term data gaps. This 
effort has afforded us the opportunity consider many options for flight 
of the remaining sensors for the long term. We have been working 
closely with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) 
on the details of our long-term plans and will keep you informed of our 
progress. 

We will continue to work with NOAA and DoD toward the success of the 
NPP and NPOESS programs. Thank you again for the opportunity to review 
this draft report, and we are looking forward to your final report to 
Congress. 

If you have any questions or require additional information, please 
contact Andrew Carson on (202) 358-1702. 

Sincerely, 

Signed by: 

Edward J. Weiler: 
Associate Administrator for Science Mission Directorate: 

cc:
Science Mission Directorate/C.Gay: 
T. May: 
M. Freilich: 
A. Carson: 
M. Luther: 
S. Volz: 

[End of section] 

Appendix VI GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments: 

GAO Contact: 

David A. Powner, (202) 512-9286, or [email protected]: 

Staff Acknowledgments: 

In addition to the contact named above, Colleen Phillips (Assistant 
Director), Carol Cha, Neil Doherty, Nancy Glover, Kathleen S. Lovett, 
and Kelly Shaw made key contributions to this report. 

[End of section] 

Footnotes: 

[1] GAO, Environmental Satellite Acquisitions: Progress and Challenges; 
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-1099T] 
(Washington, D.C.: July 11, 2007); Polar-orbiting Operational 
Environmental Satellites: Restructuring Is Under Way, but Challenges 
and Risks Remain, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-
910T] (Washington, D.C.: June 7, 2007); Polar-orbiting Operational 
Environmental Satellites: Restructuring Is Under Way, but Technical 
Challenges and Risks Remain, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-
bin/getrpt?GAO-07-498] (Washington, D.C.: Apr. 27, 2007); Polar-
orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites: Cost Increases Trigger 
Review and Place Program's Direction on Hold, [hyperlink, 
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-573T] (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 
30, 2006); Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites: 
Technical Problems, Cost Increases, and Schedule Delays Trigger Need 
for Difficult Trade-off Decisions, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-
bin/getrpt?GAO-06-249T] (Washington, D.C.: Nov. 16, 2005); Polar-
orbiting Environmental Satellites: Information on Program Cost and 
Schedule Changes, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-
1054] (Washington, D.C.: Sept. 30, 2004); Polar-orbiting Environmental 
Satellites: Project Risks Could Affect Weather Data Needed by Civilian 
and Military Users, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-
03-987T] (Washington, D.C.: July 15, 2003); and Polar-orbiting 
Environmental Satellites: Status, Plans, and Future Data Management 
Challenges, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-02-684T] 
(Washington, D.C.: July 24, 2002). 

[2] Three DMSP satellites remain to be launched. DOD has the option of 
delaying the launch of the final DMSP satellite until 2016 if it is 
needed to extend coverage in a different orbit. 

[3] Presidential Decision Directive NSTC-2, May 5, 1994. 

[4] The four sensors are the Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite, 
the Cross-track infrared sounder, the Advanced technology microwave 
sounder, and the Ozone mapper/profiler suite. 

[5] [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-573T], 
[hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-249T], [hyperlink, 
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-1054], [hyperlink, 
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-03-987T], and [hyperlink, 
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-02-684T]. 

[6] 10 U.S.C. ï¿½ 2433 is commonly referred to as Nunn-McCurdy. 

[7] 10 U.S.C. ï¿½ 2433 has recently been amended by Pub. L. No. 109-163, 
ï¿½ 802 (Jan. 6, 2006) and Pub. L. No. 109-364, ï¿½ 213 (a) (Oct. 17, 
2006). The law now also includes cost growth thresholds from the 
program's original baseline. 

[8] DOD estimated that the acquisition portion of the certified program 
would cost $11.5 billion. The acquisition portion includes satellite 
development, production, and launch, but not operations and support 
costs after launch. When combined with an estimated $1 billion for 
operations and support after launch, this brings the program life cycle 
cost to $12.5 billion. 

[9] The European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological 
Satellites' MetOp program is a series of three polar-orbiting 
satellites dedicated to operational meteorology. MetOp satellites are 
planned to be launched sequentially over 14 years. The first of these 
satellites was launched in 2006 and is currently operational. 

[10] According to program officials, although the Nunn-McCurdy 
certification decision specifies NPP is to launch by January 2010, NASA 
planned to launch it by September 2009 to reduce the possibility of a 
climate data continuity gap. 

[11] [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-498]. 

[12] NPP is to include the Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite, 
Cross-track infrared sounder, Advanced technology microwave sounder, 
Ozone mapper/profiler suite (nadir and limb), and the Clouds and the 
earth's radiant energy system. 

[13] The three sensors included the flight unit for the Advanced 
technology microwave sounder and engineering design units for the 
Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite and the Cross-track infrared 
sounder. 

[14] The restructuring decision provided for replacing one of the 
removed sensors (the Conical microwave imager/sounder) with a sensor 
with reduced functionality (the Microwave imager/sounder). 

[15] National Research Council, Options to Ensure the Climate Record 
from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report (Washington, 
D.C.: 2007. Prepublication) 

[End of section] 

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