    Environmental Satellites: Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition
    Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on Whether and How to Ensure
    Climate Data Continuity (16-MAY-08, GAO-08-518).

    The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite
    System (NPOESS) is a triagency acquisition--managed by the
    Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric
    Administration (NOAA), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the
    National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)--that has
    experienced escalating costs, schedule delays, and technical
    difficulties. These factors led to a June 2006 decision to
    restructure the program by reducing the number of satellites and
    sensors, increasing estimated costs to $12.5 billion, and
    delaying the first two satellites by 3 to 5 years. Among other
    objectives, GAO was asked to evaluate progress in restructuring
    the acquisition, assess the status of key program components and
    risks, and assess NASA's, NOAA's, and DOD's plans for obtaining
    the data originally planned to be collected by NPOESS sensors,
    but eliminated by the restructuring. To do so, GAO analyzed
    program and contractor data, attended program reviews, and
    interviewed agency officials.
    -------------------------Indexing Terms-------------------------
    REPORTNUM:   GAO-08-518
        ACCNO:   A81923
      TITLE:     Environmental Satellites: Polar-orbiting Satellite
    Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on Whether and How to
    Ensure Climate Data Continuity
         DATE:   05/16/2008
      SUBJECT:   Climate
    	     Contract negotiations
    	     Cost analysis
    	     Cost control
    	     Cost overruns
    	     Data collection
    	     Earth resources satellites
    	     Earth sciences data systems
    	     Environmental monitoring
    	     Interagency relations
    	     Operational testing
    	     Procurement planning
    	     Program evaluation
    	     Program management
    	     Risk assessment
    	     Risk management
    	     Satellites
    	     Schedule slippages
    	     System vulnerabilities
    	     Systems conversions
    	     Systems integration
    	     Systems testing
    	     Technology
    	     Weather forecasting
    	     National Polar-Orbiting Operational
    	     Environmental Satellite System

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    GAO-08-518

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    Report to the Subcommittees on Energy and Environment and
    Investigations and Oversight, Committee on Science and Technology,
    House of Representatives:

    United States Government Accountability Office:
    GAO:

    May 2008:

    Environmental Satellites:

    Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on
    Whether and How to Ensure Climate Data Continuity:

    GAO-08-518:

    GAO Highlights:

    Highlights of GAO-08-518, a report to the Subcommittees on Energy and
    Environment and Investigations and Oversight, Committee on Science and
    Technology, House of Representatives.

    Why GAO Did This Study:

    The National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System
    (NPOESS) is a tri-agency acquisition�managed by the Department of
    Commerce�s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the
    Department of Defense (DOD), and the National Aeronautics and Space
    Administration (NASA)�that has experienced escalating costs, schedule
    delays, and technical difficulties. These factors led to a June 2006
    decision to restructure the program by reducing the number of
    satellites and sensors, increasing estimated costs to $12.5 billion,
    and delaying the first two satellites by 3 to 5 years.

    Among other objectives, GAO was asked to evaluate progress in
    restructuring the acquisition, assess the status of key program
    components and risks, and assess NASA�s, NOAA�s, and DOD�s plans for
    obtaining the data originally planned to be collected by NPOESS
    sensors, but eliminated by the restructuring. To do so, GAO analyzed
    program and contractor data, attended program reviews, and interviewed
    agency officials.

    What GAO Found:

    The program office has completed most of the major activities
    associated with restructuring the NPOESS acquisition, but key
    activities remain to be completed. In the past year, the program
    redefined the program�s deliverables, costs, and schedules, and
    renegotiated the NPOESS contract. However, agency executives have not
    yet finalized selected acquisition documents (including the tri-agency
    memorandum of agreement). Without the executive approval of key
    acquisition documents, the program lacks the underlying commitment
    needed to effectively manage a tri-agency program.

    Over the past year, the NPOESS program has continued to make progress
    in completing development activities, but key milestones have been
    delayed and multiple risks remain. Specifically, poor workmanship and
    testing delays caused an 8-month slip in the expected delivery of a
    technologically complex imaging sensor that is critical to weather and
    climate observations. This later delivery caused a corresponding 8-
    month delay in the expected launch date of a demonstration satellite,
    called the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP). This demonstration
    satellite is intended to provide on-orbit experiences that can be used
    to reduce risks on NPOESS satellites and to provide interim weather and
    climate observations should predecessor weather and climate satellites
    begin to degrade or fail. Moving forward, risks remain in completing
    the testing of key sensors, integrating them on the NPP spacecraft, and
    ensuring sufficient system security. The program office is aware of
    these risks and is working to mitigate them, but continued problems
    could affect the program�s overall schedule and cost.

    When the NPOESS restructuring decision removed four climate and space
    environment sensors from the program and reduced the functionality of
    four others, the program was directed to restore a limited version of
    one sensor and to restore the seven others if funded by entities
    outside the program office. NOAA, NASA, and DOD have taken preliminary
    steps to restore the capabilities of selected sensors by prioritizing
    the sensors, assessing options for restoring them, and making decisions
    to mitigate near-term data gaps by adding two sensors to the NPP
    satellite. However, the agencies have not yet developed plans to
    mitigate the loss of these and other sensors on a long-term basis.
    Until such a plan is developed, the agencies may lose windows of
    opportunity for selecting cost effective options or they may resort to
    an ad hoc approach to restoring these sensors. Almost 2 years have
    passed since key sensors were removed from the NPOESS program; further
    delays in establishing a plan could result in gaps in the continuity of
    climate and space environment data.

    What GAO Recommends:

    GAO recommends that Commerce, NASA, and DOD coordinate to develop plans
    on whether and how to restore climate and space weather sensors removed
    from the NPOESS program. GAO is also reemphasizing a prior
    recommendation for agency executives to finalize acquisition documents.
    Agency officials agreed with both recommendations.

    To view the full product, including the scope and methodology, click on
    [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-08-518]. For more
    information, contact David Powner at (202) 512-9286 or pownerd@gao.gov.

    [End of section]

    Contents:

    Letter:

    Results in Brief:

    Background:

    Major Restructuring Activities Have Been Completed, but Key Activities
    Remain:

    NPOESS Program Has Made Progress, but Key Milestones Have Been Delayed
    and Risks Remain:

    Program Office Identified Preferred Timelines for Decisions on
    Restoring Sensors to NPOESS:

    Agencies Have Undertaken Preliminary Steps to Restore Key Sensors, but
    Lack Timely Plans to Ensure Long-Term Data Continuity:

    Conclusions:

    Recommendations for Executive Action:

    Agency Comments:

    Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology:

    Appendix II: Status of Key Acquisition Documents:

    Appendix III: Comments from the Department of Commerce:

    Appendix IV: Comments from the Department of Defense:

    Appendix V: Comments from the National Aeronautics and Space
    Administration:

    Appendix VI: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments:

    Tables:

    Table 1: Expected NPOESS Instruments, as of August 31, 2004 (critical
    sensors are in bold):

    Table 2: Summary of Changes to the NPOESS Program, as of June 2006:

    Table 3: Key Program Milestones:

    Table 4: Changes to NPOESS Instruments, as of June 2006 (critical
    sensors in bold):

    Table 5: Planned Configuration of Instruments on NPP and NPOESS
    Satellites, as of January 2008 (critical sensors are in bold):

    Table 6: Status of Ground Segment Components:

    Table 7: Status of Selected Components of the Space Segment, as of
    January 2008:

    Table 8: Sensors That Could be Restored to NPOESS Satellites:

    Table 9: Program's Timelines for Restoring Canceled Sensors:

    Table 10: Summary of Studies on Impacts of the Loss of Sensors and
    Priorities for Restoring Them:

    Table 11: Status of NPOESS Acquisition Documents:

    Figures:

    Figure 1: Configuration of Operational Polar Satellites:

    Figure 2: Satellite Data Processing Steps:

    Figure 3: POES Image of Hurricane Katrina in 2005:

    Figure 4: Analysis of Ozone Concentration from POES Satellite Data:

    Figure 5: Satellite Measurements of Ozone over Antarctica, from 1980 to
    2005:

    Figure 6: Agency Responsibilities within the NPOESS Integrated Program
    Office:

    Figure 7: Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variances for the NPOESS Ground
    Segment over a 12-month Period:

    Figure 8: Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variance for the NPOESS Space
    Segment over a 12-Month Period:

    Figure 9: Selected Options for Restoring Selected Climate Sensors, as
    of January 2008:

    Abbreviations:

    CrIS: Cross-track infrared sounder:

    DMSP: Defense Meteorological Satellite Program:

    DOD: Department of Defense:

    EDR: environmental data record:

    IDPS: interface data processing system:

    NASA: National Aeronautics and Space Administration:

    NESDIS: National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information
    Service:

    NOAA: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration:

    NPOESS: National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite
    System:

    NPP: NPOESS Preparatory Project:

    POES: Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites:

    VIIRS: Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite:

    [End of section]

    United States Government Accountability Office:
    Washington, DC 20548:

    May 16, 2008:

    The Honorable Nick Lampson:
    Chairman:
    The Honorable Bob Inglis:
    Ranking Member:
    Subcommittee on Energy and Environment:
    Committee on Science and Technology:
    House of Representatives:

    The Honorable Brad Miller:
    Chairman:
    The Honorable F. James Sensenbrenner Jr.
    Ranking Member:
    Subcommittee on Investigations and Oversight:
    Committee on Science and Technology:
    House of Representatives:

    The planned National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite
    System (NPOESS) program is expected to be a state-of-the-art,
    environment-monitoring satellite system that will replace two existing
    polar-orbiting environmental satellite systems. Polar-orbiting
    satellites provide data and imagery that are used by weather
    forecasters, climatologists, and the military to map and monitor
    changes in weather, climate, the oceans, and the environment. The
    NPOESS program is considered critical to the United States' ability to
    maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting
    (including severe weather events such as hurricanes) and global climate
    monitoring through the year 2026.

    Three agencies share responsibility for the NPOESS acquisition: the
    Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric
    Administration (NOAA), the Department of Defense (DOD)/United States
    Air Force, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration
    (NASA). These agencies established a tri-agency integrated program
    office to manage the NPOESS program. In recent years, this program
    experienced escalating costs, schedule delays, and technical
    difficulties, leading to a June 2006 decision to restructure the
    program. This decision decreased the complexity of the program by
    reducing the number of satellites and sensors, increased the estimated
    cost of the program to $12.5 billion, and delayed the launches of the
    first two satellites by 3 to 5 years. The launch of a demonstration
    satellite, called the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP), was also
    delayed by about 3 years. NPP is expected to reduce NPOESS risks by
    providing an early opportunity to work with the sensors, ground
    systems, and data processing systems. It is also envisioned to provide
    continuity of weather and climate data should predecessor satellites
    degrade or fail. In addition, when the restructuring decision removed
    four climate and space environment sensors from the program and reduced
    the functionality of four others, the program was directed to restore a
    limited version of one sensor and to restore the seven others if
    sponsored and funded outside the program.

    This report responds to your request that we (1) evaluate the NPOESS
    program office's progress in restructuring the acquisition, (2) assess
    the status of key program components and risks, (3) identify how much
    notice the program office would need if agency sponsors outside the
    program choose to restore the eliminated or degraded sensors to the
    NPOESS program, and (4) assess NASA's, NOAA's, and DOD's plans for
    obtaining the environmental data originally planned to be collected by
    NPOESS sensors, but then eliminated by the restructuring.

    To address our objectives, we reviewed program documentation including
    the decision memo that restructured the program, status briefings,
    milestone progress reports, and reports on program and agency plans for
    restoring sensors to the NPOESS program. We analyzed earned value
    management data obtained from the contractor to determine performance
    against cost and schedule estimates. We also interviewed relevant
    agency officials from NOAA, NASA, and DOD. In addition, this work
    builds on reviews we have done on environmental satellites over the
    last several years.[Footnote 1]

    We conducted our work at the NPOESS Integrated Program Office
    headquarters and at NOAA, NASA, and DOD facilities in the Washington,
    D.C., metropolitan area. In addition, we conducted work at a
    contractor's facility in Boulder, Colorado, and at the Air Force
    Weather Agency in Omaha, Nebraska, because of the importance of these
    sites to the planned integration and operations of the NPP satellite.
    We conducted this performance audit from June 2007 to April 2008 in
    accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.
    Additional details on our objectives, scope, and methodology are
    provided in appendix I.

    Results in Brief:

    The NPOESS program office has completed most of the major activities
    associated with restructuring the acquisition, but key activities
    remain to be completed. In the past year, the program redefined the
    program's deliverables, costs, and schedules, and renegotiated the
    NPOESS contract. However, agency executives have not yet finalized
    selected acquisition documents, including the tri-agency memorandum of
    agreement and the acquisition program baseline. Without executive
    approval of the memorandum of agreement and other key acquisition
    documents, the program lacks the underlying commitment needed to
    effectively manage a tri-agency program.

    In the past year, the NPOESS program has made progress in completing
    development and testing activities associated with the spacecraft,
    sensors, and ground systems. However, key milestones have been delayed
    and multiple risks remain. Specifically, poor workmanship and testing
    delays caused an 8-month slip in the delivery of a complex imaging
    sensor called the Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite (VIIRS).
    This late delivery caused a corresponding 8-month delay in the expected
    launch date of the NPP demonstration satellite, moving it from late
    September 2009 to early June 2010. Any delay in this launch date
    shortens the time available for identifying lessons learned from NPP
    while it is in orbit and incorporating these lessons in the development
    of the first NPOESS satellite. NPP delays could also lead to gaps in
    weather and climate data continuity if existing satellites begin to
    degrade or fail. Moving forward, risks remain in completing the testing
    of key sensors and integrating them on the NPP spacecraft, resolving
    interagency disagreements about the appropriate level of system
    security, and revising outdated operations and support cost estimates.
    The program office is aware of these risks and is working to mitigate
    them, but continued problems could affect the program's overall
    schedule and cost.

    When the NPOESS restructuring decision removed and degraded climate and
    space weather sensors from the program in order to reduce the risk and
    complexity of the system, it allowed for the sensors to be restored if
    funded by entities outside the program office. The NPOESS program
    office has requested that any entities that are willing to fund efforts
    to restore a sensor provide them 6 years' advance notice before the
    launch of the target satellite. This includes 4 years for the sensor to
    be developed and tested, and 2 years for integration and testing on the
    spacecraft. These milestones are based on historical data about how
    long it takes to build and integrate sensors. However, agency officials
    believe that these time frames could be shorter if the sensor has
    already been developed and the technology is well understood.

    NASA, NOAA, and DOD have taken preliminary steps to restore the
    capabilities of selected climate and space weather sensors that were
    removed from the NPOESS program by prioritizing the sensors, assessing
    options for restoring them, and making decisions to mitigate near-term
    data continuity needs by restoring two sensors to the NPP satellite.
    However, the agencies have not yet developed plans on whether and how
    to replace sensors on a long-term basis. Until such a plan is
    developed, the agencies may lose their windows of opportunity for
    selecting cost-effective options or they may resort to an ad hoc
    approach to restoring these sensors. Almost 2 years have passed since
    key sensors were removed from the NPOESS program; further delays in
    establishing a plan could result in gaps in the continuity of climate
    and space data.

    We are making recommendations to the Secretaries of Commerce and
    Defense and to the Administrator of NASA to coordinate with partner
    agencies to develop plans on whether and how to restore the climate and
    space weather sensors removed from the NPOESS program. In addition, we
    are reemphasizing our prior recommendation that the appropriate
    executives immediately finalize key acquisition documents. The
    Department of Commerce, DOD, and NASA provided written comments on a
    draft of our report (see apps. III, IV, and V). All three agencies
    agreed with our recommendations.

    Background:

    Since the 1960s, the United States has operated two separate
    operational polar-orbiting meteorological satellite systems: the Polar-
    orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite (POES) series, which is
    managed by NOAA, and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program
    (DMSP), which is managed by the Air Force. These satellites obtain
    environmental data that are processed to provide graphical weather
    images and specialized weather products. These satellite data are also
    the predominant input to numerical weather prediction models, which are
    a primary tool for forecasting weather 3 or more days in all advance--
    including forecasting the path and intensity of hurricanes. The weather
    products and models are used to predict the potential impact of severe
    weather so that communities and emergency managers can help prevent and
    mitigate their effects. Polar satellites also provide data used to
    monitor environmental phenomena, such as ozone depletion and drought
    conditions, as well as data sets that are used by researchers for a
    variety of studies such as climate monitoring.

    Unlike geostationary satellites, which maintain a fixed position
    relative to the earth, polar-orbiting satellites constantly circle the
    earth in an almost north-south orbit, providing global coverage of
    conditions that affect the weather and climate. Each satellite makes
    about 14 orbits a day. As the earth rotates beneath it, each satellite
    views the entire earth's surface twice a day. Currently, there are two
    operational POES satellites and two operational DMSP satellites that
    are positioned so that they can observe the earth in early morning,
    midmorning, and early afternoon polar orbits. Together, they ensure
    that, for any region of the earth, the data provided to users are
    generally no more than 6 hours old. Figure 1 illustrates the current
    operational polar satellite configuration. Besides the four operational
    satellites, six older satellites are in orbit that still collect some
    data and are available to provide limited backup to the operational
    satellites should they degrade or fail. In the future, the Air Force
    plans to continue to launch an additional DMSP satellite every few
    years; the last is currently expected to launch in 2012.[Footnote 2]
    NOAA plans to launch the final remaining POES satellite in 2009.

    Figure 1: Configuration of Operational Polar Satellites:

    [See PDF for image]

    This figure is an illustration of the orbits of operational polar
    satellites. Noted on the illustration are the following equatorial
    crossing times:

    DMPS: 0730 hours;
    POES: 0830 hours;
    DMPS: 0530 hours;
    POES: 1330 hours.

    Source: GAO, based on NPOESS Integrated Program Office data.

    [End of figure]

    Polar Satellite Data and Products:

    Polar satellites gather a broad range of data that are transformed into
    a variety of products. Satellite sensors observe different bands of
    radiation wavelengths, called channels, which are used for remotely
    determining information about the earth's atmosphere, land surface,
    oceans, and the space environment. When first received, satellite data
    are considered raw data. To make them usable, the processing centers
    format the data so that they are time-sequenced and include earth
    location and calibration information. After formatting, these data are
    called raw data records. The centers further process these raw data
    records into channel-specific data sets, called sensor data records and
    temperature data records. These data records are then used to derive
    weather and climate products called environmental data records (EDR).
    EDRs include a wide range of atmospheric products detailing cloud
    coverage, temperature, humidity, and ozone distribution; land surface
    products showing snow cover, vegetation, and land use; ocean products
    depicting sea surface temperatures, sea ice, and wave height; and
    characterizations of the space environment. Combinations of these data
    records (raw, sensor, temperature, and environmental data records) are
    also used to derive more sophisticated products, including outputs from
    numerical weather models and assessments of climate trends. Figure 2 is
    a simplified depiction of the various stages of satellite data
    processing, and figures 3 and 4 depict examples of EDR weather
    products. Specifically, figure 3 depicts a product used in weather
    forecasting, and figure 4 depicts a product used in climate monitoring.
    Figure 5 depicts a derived product that demonstrates how climate
    measurements can be aggregated over time to identify long-term trends.
    In commenting on a draft of this report, NOAA officials noted that
    while EDRs can be a valuable source of climate data, the scientific
    community also needs climate data records. These records require their
    own algorithms, data handling systems, and calibration/validation in
    order to ensure consistency in processing and reprocessing over years
    and decades.

    Figure 2: Satellite Data Processing Steps:

    [See PDF for image]

    This figure is an illustration of satellite data processing steps, as
    follows:

    Satellite Data Processing Steps:
    1) Raw data;
    2) Raw data records;
    3) Sensor data records and temperature data records;
    4) Environmental data records;
    5) Derived products and output from numerical weather prediction
    models.

    Source: GAO analysis of NOAA information.

    [End of figure]

    Figure 3: POES Image of Hurricane Katrina in 2005:

    [See PDF for image]

    Satellite image of Hurricane Katrina.

    Source: NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information
    Service.

    [End of figure]

    Figure 4: Analysis of Ozone Concentration from POES Satellite Data:

    [See PDF for image]

    Printout of SBUV/2 Total Zone, Southern Hemisphere.

    Source: NOAA's National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information
    Service.

    [End of figure]

    Figure 5: Satellite Measurements of Ozone over Antarctica, from 1980 to
    2005:

    [See PDF for image]

    This figure is a graph indicating satellite observations from 1980 to
    the present. These observations are in minimum total ozone (Dobson
    units). Also depicted is the range of atmospheric model predictions.

    Source: Fahey, D.W. (Lead Author), Twenty Questions and Answers About
    the Ozone Layer: 2006 Update, World Meteorological Organization,
    Geneva, 2007. [Reprinted from Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion:
    2006, Global Ozone Research and Monitoring Project - Report No.50,
    World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, 2007.].

    [End of figure]

    NPOESS Overview:

    With the expectation that combining the POES and DMSP programs would
    reduce duplication and result in sizable cost savings, a May 1994
    Presidential Decision Directive required NOAA and DOD to converge the
    two satellite programs into a single satellite program capable of
    satisfying both civilian and military requirements.[Footnote 3] The
    converged program, NPOESS, is considered critical to the United States'
    ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather
    forecasting and global climate monitoring through the year 2026. To
    manage this program, DOD, NOAA, and NASA formed the tri-agency
    Integrated Program Office, located within NOAA.

    Within the program office, each agency has the lead on certain
    activities: NOAA has overall program management responsibility for the
    converged system and for satellite operations; DOD's Air Force has the
    lead on the acquisition; and NASA has primary responsibility for
    facilitating the development and incorporation of new technologies into
    the converged system. NOAA and DOD share the costs of funding NPOESS,
    while NASA funds specific technology projects and studies. Figure 6
    depicts the organizations that make up the NPOESS program office and
    lists their responsibilities.

    The NPOESS program office is overseen by an executive committee that is
    made up of the administrators of NOAA and NASA and the Undersecretary
    of the Air Force.

    Figure 6: Agency Responsibilities within the NPOESS Integrated Program
    Office:

    [See PDF for image]

    This figure is an illustration of Agency Responsibilities within the
    NPOESS Integrated Program Office, as follows:

    NPOESS Integrated Program Office:

    Agency: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration;
    Responsibility: Overall program management and satellite operations;
    Funding: Shared funding for NPOESS.

    Agency: United States Air Force;
    Responsibility: Acquisition;
    Funding: Shared funding for NPOESS.

    Agency: National Aeronautics and Space Administration;
    Responsibility: Technologies;
    Funding: Specific technology projects and studies.

    Source: GAO, based on NPOESS Integrated Program Office data.

    [End of figure]

    NPOESS is a major system acquisition that was originally estimated to
    cost about $6.5 billion over the 24-year life of the program from its
    inception in 1995 through 2018. The program is to provide satellite
    development, satellite launch and operation, and ground-based satellite
    data processing. These deliverables are grouped into four main
    categories: (1) the space segment, which includes the satellites and
    sensors; (2) the integrated data processing segment, which is the
    system for transforming raw data into EDRs and is to be located at the
    four processing centers; (3) the command, control, and communications
    segment, which includes the equipment and services needed to support
    satellite operations; and (4) the launch segment, which includes the
    launch vehicle services.

    When the NPOESS engineering, manufacturing, and development contract
    was awarded in August 2002, the cost estimate was adjusted to $7
    billion. Acquisition plans called for the procurement and launch of six
    satellites over the life of the program, as well as the integration of
    13 instruments--consisting of 10 environmental sensors and 3
    subsystems. Together, the sensors were to receive and transmit data on
    atmospheric, cloud cover, environmental, climatic, oceanographic, and
    solar-geophysical observations. The subsystems were to support
    nonenvironmental search and rescue efforts, sensor survivability, and
    environmental data collection activities. The program office considered
    4 of the sensors to be critical because they provide data for key
    weather products; these sensors are in bold in table 1, which describes
    each of the expected NPOESS instruments.

    Table 1: Expected NPOESS Instruments, as of August 31, 2004 (critical
    sensors are in bold):

    Instrument: Advanced technology microwave sounder (critical sensor);
    Description: Measures microwave energy released and scattered by the
    atmosphere and is to be used with infrared sounding data from the cross-
    track infrared sounder to produce daily global atmospheric temperature,
    humidity, and pressure profiles.

    Instrument: Aerosol polarimetry sensor;
    Description: Retrieves specific measurements of clouds and aerosols
    (liquid droplets or solid particles suspended in the atmosphere, such
    as sea spray, smog, and smoke).

    Instrument: Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder (critical sensor);
    Description: Collects microwave images and data needed to measure rain
    rate, ocean surface wind speed and direction, amount of water in the
    clouds, and soil moisture, as well as temperature and humidity at
    different atmospheric levels.

    Instrument: Cross-track infrared sounder (critical sensor);
    Description: Collects measurements of the earth's radiation to
    determine the vertical distribution of temperature, moisture, and
    pressure in the atmosphere.

    Instrument: Data collection system;
    Description: Collects environmental data from platforms around the
    world and delivers them to users worldwide.

    Instrument: Earth radiation budget sensor;
    Description: Measures solar short-wave radiation and long-wave
    radiation released by the earth back into space on a worldwide scale to
    enhance long-term climate studies.

    Instrument: Ozone mapper/profiler suite;
    Description: Collects data needed to measure the amount and
    distribution of ozone in the earth's atmosphere. Consists of two
    components (limb and nadir), which can be provided separately.

    Instrument: Radar altimeter;
    Description: Measures variances in sea surface height/topography and
    ocean surface roughness, which are used to determine sea surface
    height, significant wave height, and ocean surface wind speed and to
    provide critical inputs to ocean forecasting and climate prediction
    models.

    Instrument: Search and rescue satellite aided tracking system;
    Description: Detects and locates aviators, mariners, and land-based
    users in distress.

    Instrument: Space environmental sensor suite;
    Description: Collects data to identify, reduce, and predict the effects
    of space weather on technological systems, including satellites and
    radio links.

    Instrument: Survivability sensor;
    Description: Monitors for attacks on the satellite and notifies other
    instruments in case of an attack.

    Instrument: Total solar irradiance sensor;
    Description: Monitors and captures total and spectral solar irradiance
    data.

    Instrument: Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite (VIIRS)(critical
    sensor);
    Description: Collects images and radiometric data used to provide
    information on the earth's clouds, atmosphere, ocean, and land
    surfaces.

    Source: GAO, based on NPOESS program office data.

    [End of table]

    In addition, a demonstration satellite, called the NPOESS Preparatory
    Project (NPP), was planned to be launched several years before the
    first NPOESS satellite in order to reduce the risk associated with
    launching new sensor technologies and to ensure continuity of climate
    data with NASA's Earth Observing System satellites. NPP was to host
    three of the four critical NPOESS sensors, as well as one other no
    critical sensor and to provide the program office and the processing
    centers an early opportunity to work with the sensors, ground control,
    and data processing systems.[Footnote 4]

    When the NPOESS development contract was awarded, the schedule for
    launching the satellites was driven by a requirement that the
    satellites be available to back up the final POES and DMSP satellites
    should anything go wrong during the planned launches of these
    satellites. Early program milestones included (1) launching NPP by May
    2006, (2) having the first NPOESS satellite available to back up the
    final POES satellite launch in March 2008, and (3) having the second
    NPOESS satellite available to back up the final DMSP satellite launch
    in October 2009. If the NPOESS satellites were not needed to back up
    the final predecessor satellites, their anticipated launch dates would
    have been April 2009 and June 2011, respectively.

    Continuing Cost Increases, Schedule Delays, and Technical Problems Led
    to a Decision to Restructure the NPOESS Program:

    Over several years, we reported that NPOESS had experienced continued
    cost increases, schedule delays, and serious technical
    problems.[Footnote 5] By November 2005, we estimated that the cost of
    the program had grown from $7 billion to over $10 billion. In addition,
    the program was experiencing major technical problems with the VIIRS
    sensor and expected to delay the launch date of the first satellite by
    almost 2 years. These issues ultimately required difficult decisions to
    be made about the program's direction and capabilities.

    The Nunn-McCurdy law requires DOD to take specific actions when a major
    defense acquisition program growth exceeds certain cost thresholds.
    [Footnote 6] Key provisions of the law require the Secretary of Defense
    to notify Congress when a major defense acquisition is expected to
    overrun its baseline by 15 percent or more and to certify the program
    to Congress when it is expected to overrun its baseline by 25 percent
    or more.[Footnote 7] In November 2005, NPOESS exceeded the 25 percent
    threshold, and DOD was required to certify the program. Certifying a
    program entails providing a determination that (1) the program is
    essential to national security, (2) there are no alternatives to the
    program that will provide equal or greater military capability at less
    cost, (3) the new estimates of the program's cost are reasonable, and
    (4) the management structure for the program is adequate to manage and
    control costs. DOD established tri-agency teams--made up of DOD, NOAA,
    and NASA experts--to work on each of the four elements of the
    certification process.

    In June 2006, DOD (with the agreement of both of its partner agencies)
    certified a restructured NPOESS program, estimated to cost $12.5
    billion through 2026.[Footnote 8] This decision approved a cost
    increase of $4 billion over the prior approved baseline cost and
    delayed the launch of NPP and the first 2 satellites by roughly 3 to 5
    years. The new program also entailed reducing the number of satellites
    to be produced and launched from 6 to 4, and reducing the number of
    instruments on the satellites from 13 to 9--consisting of 7
    environmental sensors and 2 subsystems. It also entailed using NPOESS
    satellites in the early morning and afternoon orbits and relying on
    European satellites for midmorning orbit data.[Footnote 9] Table 2
    summarizes the major program changes made under the Nunn-McCurdy
    certification decision.

    Table 2: Summary of Changes to the NPOESS Program, as of June 2006:

    Key area: Life cycle range;
    Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 1995-2020;
    Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 1995-2026.

    Key area: Estimated life cycle cost;
    Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: $8.4 billion;
    Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: $12.5 billion.

    Key area: Launch schedule;
    Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision:
    * NPP by October 2006;
    * First NPOESS by November 2009;
    * Second NPOESS by June 2011;
    Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision:
    * NPP by January 2010[A];
    * First NPOESS by January 2013;
    * Second NPOESS by January 2016.

    Key area: Management structure;
    Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision:
    * System Program Director reports to a tri-agency steering committee
    and the tri-agency Executive Committee;
    * Independent program reviews noted insufficient system engineering and
    cost analysis staff;
    Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision:
    * System Program Director is responsible for day-to-day program
    management and reports to the Program Executive Officer;
    * Program Executive Officer oversees program and reports to the tri-
    agency Executive Committee.

    Key area: Number of satellites;
    Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 6 (in addition to NPP);
    Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 4 (in addition to NPP).

    Key area: Number of orbits;
    Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 3 (early morning, midmorning,
    and afternoon);
    Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 2 (early morning and
    afternoon; will rely on European satellites for midmorning orbit data).

    Key area: Number and complement of instruments;
    Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 13 instruments (10 sensors
    and 3 subsystems);
    Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 9 instruments (7 sensors and 2
    subsystems); 4 of the sensors are to provide fewer capabilities.

    Key area: Number of EDRs;
    Program before the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 55;
    Program after the Nunn-McCurdy decision: 39 (6 are to be degraded
    products).

    Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS program office data.

    [A] Although the Nunn-McCurdy certification decision specifies NPP is
    to launch by January 2010, NASA planned to launch it by September 2009
    to reduce the possibility of a climate data continuity gap.

    [End of table]

    The Nunn-McCurdy certification decision established new milestones for
    the delivery of key program elements, including launching NPP by
    January 2010,[Footnote 10] launching the first NPOESS satellite (called
    C1) by January 2013, and launching the second NPOESS satellite (called
    C2) by January 2016. These revised milestones deviated from prior plans
    to have the first NPOESS satellite available to back up the final POES
    satellite should anything go wrong during that launch. Table 3
    summarizes changes in key program milestones over time.

    Table 3: Key Program Milestones:

    Milestones: Final POES launch[A];
    As of the August 2002 contract award: March 2008;
    As of the February 2004 rebaselined program: March 2008;
    As of the June 2006 certification decision: February 2009;
    Change from 2004 rebaselined program: Not applicable.

    Milestones: NPP launch;
    As of the August 2002 contract award: May 2006;
    As of the February 2004 rebaselined program: October 2006;
    As of the June 2006 certification decision: January 2010[B];
    Change from 2004 rebaselined program: 44-month delay.

    Milestones: First NPOESS satellite planned for launch;
    As of the August 2002 contract award: April 2009;
    As of the February 2004 rebaselined program: November 2009;
    As of the June 2006 certification decision: January 2013;
    Change from 2004 rebaselined program: 38-month delay.

    Milestones: Final DMSP launch[A];
    As of the August 2002 contract award: October 2009;
    As of the February 2004 rebaselined program: May 2010;
    As of the June 2006 certification decision: April 2012;
    Change from 2004 rebaselined program: Not applicable.

    Milestones: Second NPOESS satellite planned for launch;
    As of the August 2002 contract award: June 2011;
    As of the February 2004 rebaselined program: June 2011;
    As of the June 2006 certification decision: January 2016;
    Change from 2004 rebaselined program: 55-month delay.

    Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS program office data.

    [A] POES and DMSP are not part of the NPOESS program. Their launch
    dates are provided to indicate the increased risk of satellite data
    gaps between when these systems launch and when the NPOESS satellites
    launch.

    [B] Although the certification decision specified NPP is to launch by
    January 2010, NASA planned to launch it by September 2009 to reduce the
    possibility of a gap in climate data continuity.

    [End of table]

    Delaying the launch of the first NPOESS satellite meant that if the
    final POES satellite fails on launch, satellite data users would need
    to rely on the existing constellation of environmental satellites until
    NPP data becomes available--almost 2 years later. Although NPP was not
    intended to be an operational asset, NASA agreed to move NPP to a
    different orbit so that its data would be available in the event of a
    premature failure of the final POES satellite. If the health of the
    existing constellation of satellites diminishes--or if NPP data is not
    available, timely, and reliable--there could be a gap in environmental
    satellite data.

    In order to reduce program complexity, the Nunn-McCurdy certification
    decision decreased the number of NPOESS sensors from 13 to 9 and
    reduced the functionality of 4 sensors. Specifically, of the 13
    original sensors, 5 sensors remain unchanged (but 2 are on a reduced
    number of satellites), 3 were replaced with older or less capable
    sensors, 1 was modified to provide less functionality, and 4 were
    canceled. Table 4 delineates the changes made.

    Table 4: Changes to NPOESS Instruments, as of June 2006 (critical
    sensors in bold):

    Instrument: Advanced technology microwave sounder (critical sensor);
    Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor unchanged; to
    be included on NPP and on afternoon satellites.

    Instrument: Aerosol polarimetry sensor;
    Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor was
    canceled[A].

    Instrument: Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder (critical sensor);
    Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor was canceled;
    program office to procure a less complex microwave imager/sounder for
    inclusion beginning on the second NPOESS satellite.

    Instrument: Cross-track infrared sounder (critical sensor);
    Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor unchanged; to
    be included on NPP and on afternoon satellites.

    Instrument: Data collection system;
    Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: No change; subsystem
    is to be included on all four NPOESS satellites.

    Instrument: Earth radiation budget sensor;
    Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor was canceled;
    is to be replaced by a legacy sensor[A].

    Instrument: Ozone mapper/profiler suite;
    Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: One part of the
    sensor (limb) was canceled; remaining part is to be included on NPP and
    on all four NPOESS satellites[A].

    Instrument: Radar altimeter;
    Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor was
    canceled[A].

    Instrument: Search and rescue satellite aided tracking system;
    Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor unchanged;
    subsystem is to be included on all four NPOESS satellites.

    Instrument: Space environmental sensor suite;
    Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor was canceled;
    is to be replaced by a less capable, less expensive legacy sensor[A].

    Instrument: Survivability sensor;
    Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Subsystem was
    canceled[A].

    Instrument: Total solar irradiance sensor;
    Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor was
    canceled[A].

    Instrument: Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite (critical sensor);
    Status of instrument after Nunn-McCurdy Decision: Sensor unchanged;
    sensor is to be included on NPP and on all four NPOESS satellites.

    Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS program office data.

    [A] While direct program funding for these sensors was eliminated,
    these sensors could be reintegrated should other parties choose to fund
    them. The Nunn-McCurdy certification decision notes that the satellite
    bus is to include space for these sensors and funds to integrate them.

    [End of table]

    Table 5 shows the changes to NPOESS instruments, including the 4
    critical sensors identified in bold, and the planned configuration for
    NPP and the four satellites of the NPOESS program, called C1, C2, C3,
    and C4. Program officials acknowledged that this configuration could
    change if other parties decided to develop the sensors that were
    canceled. However, they stated that the planned configuration of the
    first satellite (C1) cannot change without increasing the risk that the
    launch would be delayed.

    Table 5: Planned Configuration of Instruments on NPP and NPOESS
    Satellites, as of January 2008 (critical sensors are in bold):

    Instrument: Advanced technology microwave sounder (critical sensor);
    NPP: Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite.

    Instrument: Aerosol polarimetry sensor;
    NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C2 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
    satellite.

    Instrument: Microwave imager/sounder (replacing the Conical-scanned
    microwave imager/sounder) (critical sensor);
    NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C1 (PM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite.

    Instrument: Cross-track infrared sounder (critical sensor);
    NPP: Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite.

    Instrument: Data collection system;
    NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite.

    Instrument: Earth radiation budget sensor (replaced on NPP and C1 by
    the Clouds and the earth's radiant energy system sensor);
    NPP: Sensor is currently planned for this satellite[A];
    NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C2 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
    satellite.

    Instrument: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (nadir);
    NPP: Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C2 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
    satellite.

    Instrument: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb);
    NPP: Sensor is currently planned for this satellite[B];
    NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C2 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
    satellite.

    Instrument: Space environmental sensor suite;
    NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite.

    Instrument: Space environment monitor[C] (replacing selected
    capabilities of the space environmental sensor suite);
    NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C2 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
    satellite.

    Instrument: Total solar irradiance sensor;
    NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C1 (PM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite.

    Instrument: Radar altimeter;
    NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C1 (PM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM): Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite.

    Instrument: Survivability sensor;
    NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor was canceled but could be restored to this
    satellite.

    Instrument: Search and rescue satellite aided tracking system;
    NPP: Not applicable- sensor was never planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite.

    Instrument: Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite (critical sensor);
    NPP: Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C1 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C2 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM): Sensor is currently planned for this satellite.

    Source: GAO analysis of program office data.

    [A] The NPOESS Executive Committee recently decided to add the Clouds
    and the earth's radiant energy system to the NPP satellite to reduce
    the risk of a data gap of earth radiation budget data.

    [B] The limb component of the Ozone mapper/profiler suite was added
    back to NPP using NASA/NOAA funds from outside the NPOESS baseline
    program.

    [C] The space environment monitor is a limited version of the full
    space environmental sensor suite.

    [End of table]

    The changes in NPOESS sensors affected the number and quality of the
    resulting weather and environmental products, called EDRs. In selecting
    sensors for the restructured program during the Nunn-McCurdy process,
    decision makers placed the highest priority on continuing current
    operational weather capabilities and a lower priority on obtaining
    selected environmental and climate measuring capabilities. As a result,
    the revised NPOESS system has significantly less capability for
    providing global climate measures than was originally planned.
    Specifically, the number of EDRs was decreased from 55 to 39, of which
    6 are of a reduced quality. The 39 EDRs that remain include cloud base
    height, land surface temperature, precipitation type and rate, and sea
    surface winds. The 16 EDRs that were removed include cloud particle
    size and distribution, sea surface height, net solar radiation at the
    top of the atmosphere, and products to depict the electric fields in
    the space environment. The 6 EDRs that are of a reduced quality include
    ozone profile, soil moisture, and multiple products depicting energy in
    the space environment.

    Prior Report Recommended Steps to Mitigate Program Risks:

    In April 2007, we reported that while the program office had made
    progress in restructuring NPOESS since the June 2006 Nunn-McCurdy
    certification decision, important tasks leading up to finalizing
    contract changes remained to be completed.[Footnote 11] Specifically,
    the program had established and implemented interim program plans
    guiding the contractor's work activities in 2006 and 2007 and had made
    progress on drafting key acquisition documents, including the system
    engineering plan, the test and evaluation master plan, and the
    memorandum of agreement between the agencies. However, executive
    approval of those documents was about 6 months late at that time--due
    in part to the complexity of navigating three agencies' approval
    processes.

    We also reported that the program office had made progress in
    establishing an effective management structure, but that plans to
    reassign the Program Executive Officer would unnecessarily increase
    risks to an already risky program. Additionally, we found that the
    program lacked a process and plan for identifying and filling staffing
    shortages, which led to delays in key activities such as cost
    estimating and contract revisions. We reported that until this process
    is in place, the NPOESS program faced increased risk of further delays.

    To address these issues, we recommended that the appropriate agency
    executives finalize key acquisition documents by the end of April 2007
    in order to allow the restructuring of the program to proceed. We also
    recommended that NPOESS program officials develop and implement a
    written process for identifying and addressing human capital needs and
    that they establish a plan to immediately fill needed positions. In
    addition, to reduce program risks, we recommended that DOD delay the
    reassignment of the Program Executive Officer until all sensors were
    delivered to NPP.

    The agencies' response to these recommendations has been mixed. While
    the program office is still working to complete selected acquisition
    documents, program officials documented the program's staffing process
    and have made progress in filling selected budgeting and system
    engineering vacancies. DOD, however, reassigned the Program Executive
    Officer in July 2007. A new Program Executive Officer is now in place.

    Earned Value Management Techniques Provide Insight on Program Cost and
    Schedule:

    To effectively oversee an acquisition, project managers need current
    information on a contractor's progress in meeting contract
    deliverables. One method that can help project managers track this
    progress is earned value management. This method, used by DOD for
    several decades, compares the value of work accomplished during a given
    period with that of the work expected in that period.

    Differences from expectations are measured in both cost and schedule
    variances. Cost variances compare the earned value of the completed
    work with the actual cost of the work performed. For example, if a
    contractor completed $5 million worth of work and the work actually
    cost $6.7 million, there would be a -$1.7 million cost variance.
    Schedule variances are also measured in dollars, but they compare the
    earned value of the work completed with the value of work that was
    expected to be completed. For example, if a contractor completed $5
    million worth of work at the end of the month but was budgeted to
    complete $10 million worth of work, there would be a -$5 million
    schedule variance. Positive variances indicate that activities are
    costing less or are completed ahead of schedule. Negative variances
    indicate activities are costing more or are falling behind schedule.
    These cost and schedule variances can then be used in estimating the
    cost and time needed to complete the program.

    Major Restructuring Activities Have Been Completed, but Key Activities
    Remain:

    The program office has completed major activities associated with
    restructuring NPOESS, but key supporting activities remain--including
    obtaining approval of key acquisition documents. Restructuring a major
    acquisition program like NPOESS is a process that involves reassessing
    and redefining the program's deliverables, costs, and schedules, and
    renegotiating the contract. The restructuring process also involves
    revising important acquisition documents such as the tri-agency
    memorandum of agreement, the acquisition strategy, the system
    engineering plan, the integrated master schedule defining what needs to
    happen by when, and the acquisition program baseline.

    During the past year, the program redefined the program's deliverables,
    costs, and schedules, and renegotiated the NPOESS contract. To do so,
    the program developed a new program plan and conducted an integrated
    baseline review of the entire program, which validated that the new
    deliverables, costs, and schedules were feasible. It also completed key
    acquisition documents including the system engineering plan and the
    integrated master schedule. The program and the prime contractor
    renegotiated their agreement and signed a modified contract in July
    2007.

    However, key activities remain to be completed, including obtaining
    executive approval of key acquisition documents. Specifically, even
    though agency officials were expected to approve key acquisition
    documents by September 2007, the appropriate executives have not yet
    signed off on documents including the tri-agency memorandum of
    agreement or the acquisition strategy report. They have also not signed
    off on the acquisition program baseline, the fee management plan, the
    test and evaluation master plan, and the two-orbit program plan (a plan
    for how to use European satellite data with NPOESS). Appendix II
    provides more information on the status of these documents.

    Program officials stated that the program has been able to renegotiate
    the contract and to proceed in developing sensors and systems without
    these documents being signed because the documents have widespread
    acceptance within the three agencies. They reported that the delays are
    largely due to the complexity of obtaining approval from three
    agencies. For example, program officials reported that an organization
    within DOD suggested minor changes to the tri-agency memorandum of
    agreement after months of coordination and after it had already been
    signed by both the Secretary of Commerce and the Administrator of NASA.
    The program office has now made the recommended changes and is re-
    initiating the coordination process. In addition, NASA disagreed with
    the fee management plan because it wanted to have an incentive
    associated with the on-orbit performance of the NPP satellite. The
    program office is currently trying to address NASA's concerns, but
    stated that the current plan is in effect for this fiscal year and any
    changes would have to wait until fiscal year 2009. These disagreements
    further delay an already delayed restructuring process. Without
    executive approval of key acquisition documents, the program lacks the
    underlying commitment necessary to effectively manage a tri-agency
    program. In our prior report, we recommended that the appropriate
    executives immediately finalize key acquisition documents. This
    recommendation remains open.

    NPOESS Program Has Made Progress, but Key Milestones Have Been Delayed
    and Risks Remain:

    Over the last year, the NPOESS program has made progress by completing
    planned development and testing activities on its ground and space
    segments, but key milestones for delivering the VIIRS sensor and
    launching NPP have been delayed by about 8 months. Moving forward,
    risks remain in completing the testing of key sensors and integrating
    them on the NPP spacecraft, in resolving interagency disagreements on
    the appropriate level of system security, and in revising estimated
    costs for satellite operations and support. The program office is aware
    of these risks and is working to mitigate them, but continued problems
    could affect the program's overall schedule and cost. Given the tight
    time frames for completing key sensors, integrating them on the NPP
    spacecraft, and getting the ground-based data processing system
    developed, tested, and deployed, it is important for the NPOESS
    Integrated Program Office, the Program Executive Office, and the
    Executive Committee to continue to provide close oversight of
    milestones and risks.

    Ground Segment--Progress Has Been Made, but Important Work Remains to
    Be Done:

    Development of the ground segment--which includes the interface data
    processing system, the ground stations that are to receive satellite
    data, and the ground-based command, control, and communications system-
    -is under way and on track. For example, the Interface Data Processing
    System has been installed at one of the two locations that are to
    receive NPP data, and the command, control, and communications system
    passed acceptance testing for use with NPP. However, important work in
    developing the algorithms that translate satellite data into weather
    products within the integrated data processing segment remains to be
    completed. Table 6 describes each of the components of the ground
    segment and identifies the program-provided risk level and status of
    each.

    Table 6: Status of Ground Segment Components:

    Ground segment component/description: Interface Data Processing System
    (IDPS); A ground-based system that is to process the sensors' data so
    that they are usable by the data processing centers and the broader
    community of environmental data users. IDPS will be deployed at the
    four weather data processing centers;
    Program-identified risk level: Low;
    Status: IDPS software is being developed in a series of builds. In
    2007, software developers required additional resources and fell behind
    schedule on build 1.5 activities due to unanticipated complexities in
    developing algorithms that will make use of data collected by the Ozone
    mapper/profiler suite in orbit--as well as late delivery of key
    information on this instrument. As of January 2008, IDPS build 1.5 had
    been developed and was undergoing testing to check the quality of its
    performance; additional builds are planned to be developed prior to
    launch and will be used with NPP. In January 2008, IDPS hardware was
    installed at one of the data processing centers (NOAA's National
    Satellite Operations Facility in Suitland, Maryland) and is expected to
    be installed at the Air Force Weather Agency in the spring. In
    addition, the Air Force Weather Agency has begun early testing of
    NPOESS data. Site acceptance testing for NPP is scheduled to be
    completed in December 2008.

    Ground segment component/description: Ground stations for receiving
    satellite data; 15 unmanned ground stations around the world (called
    SafetyNet�) are to receive satellite data and send it to the four data
    processing centers;
    Program-identified risk level: Low;
    Status: NOAA is working with domestic and foreign authorities to obtain
    approval to operate ground stations to receive satellite data.
    According to agency officials, the full complement of ground stations
    will not be in place in time for the first NPOESS satellite launch. The
    ground stations will be phased in by the launch of the second
    satellite. To date, the program office has reached agreement with 4 of
    15 ground station sites.

    Ground segment component/description: Command, control, and
    communications segment; Performs the day-to-day monitoring and command
    of the spacecraft and sensors;
    Program-identified risk level: Low;
    Status: The command, control, and communications segment is being
    developed in a series of builds. In August 2007, build 1.4 transitioned
    from development to operations and support. In addition, the command,
    control, and communications acceptance testing for NPP has been
    completed.

    Source: GAO summary of NPOESS program office data.

    [End of table]

    Using contractor-provided data, our analysis of the earned value data
    for the ground segment indicates that cost and schedule performance
    were generally on track between March 2007 and February 2008 (see fig.
    7). Between these dates, the contractor completed slightly more work
    than planned on both the IDPS and command, control, and communications
    components. In addition, the contractor finished slightly over budget
    for the IDPS component and slightly under budget for the command,
    control, and communications component. This caused cost and schedule
    variances that were less than 1 percent off of expectations.

    Figure 7: Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variances for the NPOESS Ground
    Segment over a 12-month Period:

    [See PDF for image]

    This figure is a multiple line graph depicting the following data:

    Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variances for the NPOESS Ground Segment
    over a 12-month Period:

    Date: March 7, 2007;
    Cost variance: $0.5 million;
    Schedule variance: $0.2 million.

    Date: April 7, 2007;
    Cost variance: $0.7 million;
    Schedule variance: 0.

    Date: May 7, 2007;
    Cost variance: $0.9 million;
    Schedule variance: 0.

    Date: June 7, 2007;
    Cost variance: $0.4 million;
    Schedule variance: -$0.1 million.

    Date: July 7, 2007;
    Cost variance: $0.4 million;
    Schedule variance: -$0.1 million.

    Date: August 7, 2007;
    Cost variance: $0.5 million;
    Schedule variance: -$0.2 million.

    Date: September 7, 2007;
    Cost variance: $0.3 million;
    Schedule variance: $0.3 million.

    Date: October 7, 2007;
    Cost variance: $0.1 million;
    Schedule variance: $0.3 million.

    Date: November 7, 2007;
    Cost variance: $0.3 million;
    Schedule variance: $0.4 million.

    Date: December 7, 2007;
    Cost variance: -$0.6 million;
    Schedule variance: $0.2 million.

    Date: January 8, 2008;
    Cost variance: $0.3 million;
    Schedule variance: $0.3 million.

    Date: February 8, 2008;
    Cost variance: $0.4 million;
    Schedule variance: $0.2 million.

    Source: GAO analysis based on contractor data.

    [End of figure]

    Space Segment: Progress Made, but One Sensor Has Been Delayed and
    Sensors Continue to Face Risks:

    Over the past year, the program made progress on the development of the
    space segment, which includes the sensors and the spacecraft. Five
    sensors are of critical importance because they are to be launched on
    the NPP satellite.[Footnote 12] Initiating work on another sensor, the
    Microwave Imager Sounder, is also important because this new sensor--
    which is to replace the canceled Conical-scanned microwave imager/
    sounder sensor--will need to be developed in time for the second NPOESS
    satellite launch. Among other activities, the program has successfully
    completed ambient testing of the VIIRS flight unit, structural
    vibration testing of the flight unit of the Cross-track infrared
    sounder, risk reduction testing of the flight unit of the Ozone mapper/
    profiler suite, and thermal testing of the NPP spacecraft with three
    sensors on board.[Footnote 13] In addition, the program made decisions
    on how to proceed with the Microwave imager sounder and plans to
    contract with a government laboratory by the end of April 2008.

    However, the program experienced problems on VIIRS, including poor
    workmanship on selected subcomponents and delays in completing key
    tests. These issues delayed VIIRS delivery to the NPP contractor by 8
    months. This late delivery will in turn delay the NPP launch from late
    September 2009 to early June 2010. This delay in NPP shortens the time
    available for incorporating lessons learned from NPP while it is in
    orbit into future NPOESS missions and could lead to gaps in the
    continuity of climate and weather data if predecessor satellites fail
    prematurely. Also, the Cross-track infrared sounder sensor experienced
    a cost overrun and schedule delays as the contractor worked to recover
    from a structural failure. The status and risk level of each of the
    components of the space segment is described in table 7.

    Table 7: Status of Selected Components of the Space Segment, as of
    January 2008:

    Space segment component: Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite;
    Program-identified risk level: High;
    Status: In April 2007, we reported that the contractor had identified a
    problem with the VIIRS baseline filter during environmental testing
    that caused degraded performance in the filter's image quality.
    Specifically, this problem involves light leaking across the seams of
    the filter, resulting in inaccurate measurements of ocean color. In
    October 2007, the NPOESS Executive Committee decided to continue sensor
    development with the baseline filter because changing it would increase
    risks to sensor development, delay the delivery of the sensor, and risk
    delays to the launch of NPP. An improved VIIRS filter is planned to be
    included on the flight units on future NPOESS missions. More recently,
    the VIIRS contractor experienced problems with workmanship on
    electrical and cryoradiator components and delays in executing
    tests.[A] These factors slowed the sensor's development. The VIIRS
    flight unit was originally scheduled to be delivered to NPP by July
    2008, but due to technical issues and testing schedule delays, VIIRS'
    delivery to NPP is now planned for April 2009.

    Space segment component: Cross-track infrared sounder (CrIS);
    Program- identified risk level: Moderate;
    Status: In April 2007, we reported that development of CrIS was put on
    hold in October 2006 when the flight unit designated to go on NPP
    experienced a major structural failure during its vibration testing.
    Acceptance testing began again in mid-2007, and the structural
    stability of the frame was approved in August 2007. The flight unit is
    currently undergoing thermal vacuum testing. The flight unit was
    expected to be delivered to NPP by February 2008, but it is now
    expected to be delivered in May 2008.

    Space segment component: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (nadir and limb);
    Program-identified risk level: Low;
    Status: In April 2007, program officials had agreed to fund the
    reintegration of the limb component on NPP. By December 2007, the first
    flight unit completed key integration risk reduction testing. It is
    expected to be delivered to the NPP contractor for integration in
    August 2008.

    Space segment component: Advanced technology microwave sounder;
    Program-identified risk level: Low;
    Status: The flight unit for NPP was developed by a NASA contractor and
    delivered to the program in October 2005. The NPP contractor integrated
    the flight unit on the spacecraft in December 2006 and is awaiting
    delivery of the other sensors in order to complete integration testing.

    Space segment component: Clouds and the earth's radiant energy system;
    Program-identified risk level: Not yet rated;
    Status: In January 2008, the NPOESS Executive Committee approved
    including this instrument on NPP. The sensor has already been built but
    requires some refurbishment. It is expected to be delivered to the NPP
    spacecraft for integration in October 2008. In January 2008, the
    program office was directed to develop an additional sensor for the C1
    satellite.

    Space segment component: Microwave imager/sounder;
    Program-identified risk level: Not yet rated;
    Status: A new microwave imager/sounder sensor is being planned to
    replace the canceled Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder. The
    program office anticipates awarding a contract to develop the sensor by
    the end of April 2008.

    Space segment component: Spacecraft;
    Program-identified risk level: Low;
    Status: Both the development of the spacecraft for NPP and the
    spacecraft for NPOESS are on track. The NPP spacecraft was completed in
    June 2005. The NPP contractor has completed over a year's worth of risk
    reduction activities, which included thermal testing of the spacecraft
    with three of the sensors on board. A preliminary audit of the
    spacecraft design for NPOESS was completed on schedule in November
    2007. However, a remaining risk involves a key control system, which
    has caused a labor increase and is taking longer than anticipated to
    resolve. The critical design review of the first NPOESS spacecraft is
    scheduled to be completed in April 2009, with the launch date scheduled
    for January 2013.

    Source: GAO analysis of NPOESS Integrated Program Office data.

    [A] The cryoradiator is a key component of the VIIRS sensor. It is
    intended to cool down components of the sensor.

    [End of table]

    Our analysis of contractor-provided earned value data showed that the
    NPOESS space segment has experienced negative cost and schedule
    variances between March 2007 and February 2008 (see fig. 8).
    Specifically, the contractor exceeded cost targets for the space
    segment by $15.1 million --which is 5.1 percent of the $298.2 million
    space segment budget for that time period. Similarly, the contractor
    was unable to complete $2 million worth of work in the space segment--
    which is less than 1 percent of the space segment budget for that time
    period.

    Figure 8: Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variance for the NPOESS Space
    Segment over a 12-Month Period:

    [See PDF for image]

    This figure is a multiple line graph depicting the following data:

    Cumulative Cost and Schedule Variance for the NPOESS Space Segment over
    a 12-Month Period:

    Date: March 2007;
    Cost variance: -$0.1 million;
    Schedule variance: -$0.5 million.

    Date: April 2007;
    Cost variance: $0.5 million;
    Schedule variance: -$1.5 million.

    Date: May 2007;
    Cost variance: -$1.5 million;
    Schedule variance: -$2.9 million.

    Date: June 2007;
    Cost variance: -$2.0 million;
    Schedule variance: -$1.6 million.

    Date: July 2007;
    Cost variance: -$2.4 million;
    Schedule variance: -$2.9 million.

    Date: August 2007;
    Cost variance: -$5.8 million;
    Schedule variance: -$4.4 million.

    Date: September 2007;
    Cost variance: -$7.9 million;
    Schedule variance: -$6.8 million.

    Date: October 2007;
    Cost variance: -$11.2 million;
    Schedule variance: -$7.3 million.

    Date: November 2007;
    Cost variance: -$12.3 million;
    Schedule variance: -$5.2 million.

    Date: December 2007;
    Cost variance: -$17.4 million;
    Schedule variance: -$3.4 million.

    Date: January 2008;
    Cost variance: -$14.5 million;
    Schedule variance: -$1.5 million.

    Date: February 2008;
    Cost variance: -$15.1 million;
    Schedule variance: -$2 million.

    Source: GAO analysis based on contractor data.

    [End of figure]

    Program Risks Remain; Continued Oversight Is Needed to Prevent Further
    Cost Increases and Schedule Delays:

    Moving forward, the program continues to face risks. Over the next 2
    years, it will need to complete the development of the key sensors,
    test them, integrate and test them on the NPP spacecraft, and test
    these systems with the ground-based data processing systems. In
    addition, the program faces two other issues that could affect its
    overall schedule and cost. One is that there continues to be
    disagreement between NOAA and DOD on the appropriate level of system
    security. To date, NPOESS has been designed and developed to meet DOD's
    standards for a mission essential system, but NOAA officials believe
    that the system should be built to meet more stringent standards.
    Implementing more stringent standards could cause rework and retesting,
    and potentially affect the cost and schedule of the system. Another
    issue is that program life cycle costs could increase once a better
    estimate of the cost of operations and support is known. The $12.5
    billion estimated life cycle cost for NPOESS includes a rough estimate
    of $1 billion for operations and support. Program officials have
    identified the potential for this cost to grow as a moderate risk.

    The NPOESS program office is working closely with the contractor and
    subcontractors to resolve these program risks. To address sensor risks,
    the program office and officials from NASA's Goddard Space Flight
    Center commissioned an independent review team to assess the
    thoroughness and adequacy of practices being used in the assembly,
    integration, and testing of the VIIRS and CrIS instruments in
    preparation for the NPP spacecraft. The team found that the contractors
    for both sensors had sound test programs in place, but noted risks with
    VIIRS's schedule and with CrIS's reliability and performance. The
    program office adjusted the VIIRS testing schedule and is monitoring
    the CrIS testing results. In addition, the program office recently
    instituted biweekly senior-level management meetings to review progress
    on VIIRS's development, and program officials noted that both the prime
    contractor and the program executive office will have senior officials
    onsite at the contractor's facility to provide extensive, day-to-day
    oversight of management activities to assist in resolving issues.

    To address the risk posed by changing security requirements late in the
    system's development, program officials commissioned a study to
    determine the effect of more stringent standards on the system. This
    study was completed by the end of March 2008, but has not yet been
    released. To address the risk of cost growth due to poor estimates of
    operations and support costs, DOD's cost analysis group is currently
    refining this estimate. A revised estimate is expected by June 2008.

    The program office is aware of program risks and is working to mitigate
    them, but continued problems could affect the program's overall
    schedule and cost. Given the tight time frames for completing key
    sensors, integrating them on the NPP spacecraft, and getting the ground-
    based data processing system developed, tested, and deployed, it is
    important for the NPOESS program office, the Program Executive Office,
    and the Executive Committee to continue to provide close oversight of
    milestones and risks.

    Program Office Identified Preferred Timelines for Decisions on
    Restoring Sensors to NPOESS:

    When the Nunn-McCurdy restructuring agreement removed certain sensors
    from NPOESS, the program was instructed to plan for the reintegration
    of those sensors. Specifically, the certification decision directed the
    program to build each NPOESS spacecraft with enough room and power to
    accommodate the sensors that were removed from the program and to fund
    the integration and testing of any sensors that are later restored.
    Agency sponsors external to the program are responsible for justifying
    and funding the sensor's development, while the NPOESS Executive
    Committee has the final decision on whether to include the sensor on a
    specific satellite. Table 8 denotes sensors that were canceled under
    the Nunn-McCurdy agreement, but could be restored to the different
    satellites.

    Table 8: Sensors That Could be Restored to NPOESS Satellites:

    Sensor: Aerosol polarimetry sensor;
    NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for
    this satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for
    this satellite.

    Sensor: Advanced technology microwave sounder;
    NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite.

    Sensor: Cross-track infrared sounder;
    NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Currently planned for this satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite.

    Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor;
    NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for
    this satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for
    this satellite.

    Sensor: OMPS (limb);
    NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for
    this satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for
    this satellite.

    Sensor: Radar altimeter;
    NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for
    this satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite.

    Sensor: Space environmental sensor suite;
    NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite.

    Sensor: Survivability sensor;
    NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite.

    Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor;
    NPOESS C2 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite;
    NPOESS C3 (PM orbit): Not applicable - sensor was never planned for
    this satellite;
    NPOESS C4 (AM orbit): Canceled but could be restored to this satellite.

    Source: GAO analysis of agency data.

    Note: In order to mitigate risks, program officials do not plan to
    consider any changes to the first NPOESS satellite (C1).

    [End of table]

    The NPOESS program office has requested that any entities that plan to
    restore a sensor to an NPOESS satellite provide them 6 years' notice.
    This includes 4 years for the sensor to be developed and tested, and 2
    years for integration and testing on the spacecraft. Table 9 provides a
    listing of dates based on current launch dates for each NPOESS
    satellite.

    Table 9: Program's Timelines for Restoring Canceled Sensors:

    Satellite: C1[A];
    Sensor notice preferred by (date): n/a;
    Sensor needed for integration and testing: n/a;
    Planned satellite launch: January 2013.

    Satellite: C2;
    Sensor notice preferred by (date): January 2010;
    Sensor needed for integration and testing: January 2014;
    Planned satellite launch: January 2016.

    Satellite: C3;
    Sensor notice preferred by (date): January 2012;
    Sensor needed for integration and testing: January 2016;
    Planned satellite launch: January 2018.

    Satellite: C4;
    Sensor notice preferred by (date): January 2014;
    Sensor needed for integration and testing: January 2018;
    Planned satellite launch: January 2020.

    Source: NPOESS Integrated Program Office.

    [A] In order to mitigate risks, program officials do not plan to
    consider changes to the first NPOESS satellite (C1).

    [End of table]

    The program office developed its tentative timelines using historical
    data for similar programs, but program officials reported that more or
    less time might be required depending on the status of the sensor to be
    added. For example, a sensor based on existing sensors may require less
    time, while a more advanced sensor could require more time.

    Agencies Have Undertaken Preliminary Steps to Restore Key Sensors, but
    Lack Timely Plans to Ensure Long-Term Data Continuity:

    NASA, NOAA, and DOD have taken preliminary steps to restore the
    capabilities of selected climate and space weather sensors that were
    degraded or removed from the NPOESS program by prioritizing the
    sensors, assessing options for restoring them, and making decisions to
    restore two sensors in order to mitigate near-term data gaps. However,
    the agencies have not yet developed plans to mitigate the loss of these
    sensors on a long-term basis. Best practices in strategic planning
    suggest that agencies develop and implement long-term plans to guide
    their short-term activities. Until such plans are developed, the
    agencies may lose their windows of opportunity for selecting cost-
    effective options or they may resort to an ad hoc approach to restoring
    these sensors. Lacking plans almost 2 years after key sensors were
    removed from the NPOESS program, the agencies face increased risk of
    gaps in the continuity of climate and space environment data.

    While NPOESS was originally envisioned to provide only weather
    observations, this mission was later expanded to include long-term
    continuity for key climate data. Maintaining the continuity of climate
    and space data over decades is important to identify long-term
    environmental cycles (such as the 11-year solar cycle and multiyear
    ocean cycles including the El Ni�o effect) and their impacts, and to
    detect trends in climate change and global warming. The Nunn-McCurdy
    restructuring decision removed four sensors[Footnote 14] and degraded
    the functionality of four other sensors that were to provide these
    data. DOD, NASA, and NOAA are now responsible for determining what to
    restore, how to restore it, and the means for doing so. This
    responsibility includes justifying the additional funding needed to
    develop these sensors within their respective agencies' investment
    decision processes. Best practices of leading organizations call for
    defining a strategic plan to formalize priorities and plans for meeting
    mission goals. Such a plan would include the agency's long-term goals
    for climate and space weather measurements, the short-term activities
    needed to attain these goals, and the milestones and resources needed
    to support the planned activities.

    NASA, NOAA, and DOD Have Identified Priorities, Assessed Options, and
    Made Decisions to Restore Two Sensors:

    Since the June 2006 restructuring, NASA, NOAA, and DOD have taken
    preliminary steps to restore sensor capabilities by determining
    priorities for restoring sensor capabilities, assessing options for
    obtaining sensor data over time, and making decisions to restore
    selected sensors. Specifically, in August 2006, the NPOESS Senior User
    Advisory Group--a group representing NASA, NOAA, and DOD system users-
    -assessed the impact of the canceled or degraded sensors and identified
    priorities for restoring them. In January 2007, a NOAA and NASA working
    group on climate sensors prioritized which of the sensors were most
    important to restore for climate purposes and proposed possible
    solutions and mitigation efforts. In addition, the National Research
    Council (NRC) reported on the impact of the canceled sensors.[Footnote
    15] Table 10 summarizes the results of these studies.

    Table 10: Summary of Studies on Impacts of the Loss of Sensors and
    Priorities for Restoring Them:

    Sensor/Description: Aerosol polarimetry sensor;
    Likely impact of sensor loss:
    * Decreased ability to improve air quality monitoring over time;
    * Decreased ability to improve understanding of aerosol's impact on the
    earth's radiation budget; that is, whether aerosols play a role in
    global warming;
    * Decreased ability to study the global distribution of aerosols and
    the impact of aerosols on climate;
    * Decreased ability to improve military munitions targeting and
    intelligence collection;
    Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: 6;
    NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 7.

    Sensor/Description: Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder, to be
    replaced by the Microwave imager/sounder;
    Likely impact of sensor loss:
    * Cancellation of the Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder raised
    concerns about the loss of critical environmental data including sea
    surface temperatures, ice and snow cover, and ocean surface wind speed;
    * The Microwave imager/sounder is intended to replace the Conical-
    scanned microwave imager/sounder. However, because the new sensor's
    capabilities have not yet been fully defined, the impact of the
    cancellation of the Conical-scanned microwave imager/sounder is not
    clear;
    Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: 5;
    NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 2.

    Sensor/Description: Earth radiation budget sensor (being replaced on
    selected satellites by an existing sensor, the Clouds and the earth's
    radiant energy system);
    Likely impact of sensor loss:
    * Decreased ability to measure the amount of energy entering and
    leaving the earth;
    * Reduced ability to determine the causes of climate variability and
    change;
    * Disruption of an over 28-year measurement heritage of earth radiation
    budget data, which is needed to assess long-term trends;
    Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: 2;
    NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 6.

    Sensor/Description: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb);
    Likely impact of sensor loss:
    * Decreased ability to understand the health of the ozone layer which
    absorbs solar ultraviolet radiation that is potentially harmful to
    humans;
    * Decreased ability to improve global warming and air quality models to
    differentiate the impact of changing ozone levels within the
    atmosphere;
    Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: 4;
    NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 4.

    Sensor/Description: Space environmental sensor suite (to be replaced on
    selected satellites by an existing technology sensor, the Space
    environment monitor);
    Likely impact of sensor loss:
    * Decreased understanding of the effect of space weather on military
    and civilian communications and electrical systems;
    * Decreased situational awareness for missile intercept capabilities;
    Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: unranked;
    NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 1.

    Sensor/Description: Total solar irradiance sensor;
    Likely impact of sensor loss:
    * Decreased ability to understand the influence of natural causes of
    climate change;
    * Disruption of an over 28-year measurement heritage of solar
    irradiance data, which is needed to assess long-term trends;
    Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: 1;
    NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 5.

    Sensor/Description: Radar altimeter;
    Likely impact of sensor loss:
    * Reduced number of sea surface height and other ocean measurements
    used in climate monitoring;
    * Decreased ability to measure sea-air interactions that affect
    regional weather patterns, such as El Ni�o;
    * Decreased understanding of storm intensification (e.g., hurricanes),
    coastal turbulence, and underwater features important to sailors;
    Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: 3;
    NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 3.

    Sensor/Description: Survivability sensor;
    Likely impact of sensor loss:
    * Sensor was to identify possible threats to the NPOESS spacecraft and
    has no impact on climate observations;
    Climate Working Group's priority for restoration: unranked;
    NPOESS Advisory Group's priority for restoration: 8.

    Source: GAO analysis of NASA, NOAA, DOD, and NRC data.

    [End of table]

    In addition to prioritizing the sensors, NASA, NOAA, and DOD identified
    a variety of options for obtaining key sensor data over the next two
    decades and continue to seek other options. The agencies identified
    options including adding sensors back to a later NPOESS satellite,
    adding sensors to another planned satellite, and developing a new
    satellite to include several of the sensors. Examples of options for
    several sensors are provided in figure 9. In addition, in December
    2007, NOAA released a request for information to determine whether
    commercial providers could include selected environmental sensors on
    their satellites.

    Figure 9: Selected Options for Restoring Selected Climate Sensors, as
    of January 2008:

    [See PDF for image]

    This figure is an illustration of selected options for restoring
    selected climate sensors, as of January 2008, as follows:

    Sensor: Aerosol polarimetry sensor;
    Mission: Glory [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2009-2013.

    Sensor: Aerosol polarimetry sensor;
    Mission: NPOESS C1 [Current or planned mission that will carry
    sensor(s)];
    Year: 2013-2019.

    Sensor: Aerosol polarimetry sensor;
    Mission: NPOESS C3 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2018-2024.

    Sensor: Aerosol polarimetry sensor;
    Mission: Climate Sat 2 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2020-2025.

    Sensor: Altimeter;
    Mission: Jason-1 [Current or planned mission that will carry
    sensor(s)];
    Year: 2007-2009.

    Sensor: Altimeter;
    Mission: OSTM [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2008-2013.

    Sensor: Altimeter;
    Mission: Jason-3 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2013-2016.

    Sensor: Altimeter;
    Mission: NPOESS C2 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2016-2022.

    Sensor: Altimeter;
    Mission: Jason-4/Adv Alt 1 [Possible mission that could carry
    sensor(s)];
    Year: 2017-2020.

    Sensor: Altimeter;
    Mission: NPOESS C4 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2020-2026.

    Sensor: Altimeter;
    Mission: Jason-X/Adv Alt X [Possible mission that could carry
    sensor(s)];
    Year: 2021-2024.

    Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor/Clouds and the earth's radiant
    energy system;
    Mission: Terra, Aqua [Current or planned mission that will carry
    sensor(s)];
    Year: 2007-2009.

    Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor/Clouds and the earth's radiant
    energy system;
    Mission: NPP [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2010-2016.

    Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor/Clouds and the earth's radiant
    energy system;
    Mission: NPOESS C1 [Current or planned mission that will carry
    sensor(s));
    Year: 2013-2019.

    Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor/Clouds and the earth's radiant
    energy system;
    Mission: Climate Sat 1 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2014-2019.

    Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor/Clouds and the earth's radiant
    energy system;
    Mission: NPOESS C3 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2018-2024.

    Sensor: Earth radiation budget sensor/Clouds and the earth's radiant
    energy system;
    Mission: Climate Sat 2 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2020-2025.

    Sensor: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb);
    Mission: Aura [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2007-2009.

    Sensor: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb);
    Mission: NPP [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2010-2016.

    Sensor: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb);
    Mission: NPOESS C1 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2013-2019.

    Sensor: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb);
    Mission: Climate Sat 1 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2014-2019.

    Sensor: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb);
    Mission: NPOESS C3 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2018-2024.

    Sensor: Ozone mapper/profiler suite (limb);
    Mission: Climate Sat 2 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2020-2025.

    Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor;
    Mission: SORCE [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2007-2013.

    Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor;
    Mission: Glory [Current or planned mission that will carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2009-2013.

    Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor;
    Mission: LandSat Data Continuity Mission [Planned mission that could
    carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2011-2017.

    Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor;
    Mission: Climate Sat 1 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2014-2019.

    Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor;
    Mission: NPOESS C2 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2016-2022.

    Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor;
    Mission: Flight of opportunity [Possible mission that could carry
    sensor(s)];
    Year: 2017-2022.

    Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor;
    Mission: Climate Sat 2 [Possible mission that could carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2020-2025.

    Sensor: Total solar irradiance sensor;
    Mission: NPOESS C4 [Planned mission that could carry sensor(s)];
    Year: 2020-2026.

    Source: DOD, NASA, and NOAA data.

    Notes: The satellites Terra, Aqua, Aura, Glory, and the Solar radiation
    and climate experiment (SORCE) are all NASA missions. The Landsat data
    continuity mission is a joint mission between NASA and the U.S.
    Geological Survey, Jason-1 is a joint mission between NASA and France,
    and the Ocean surface topography mission (OSTM) is a joint mission
    between NASA, NOAA, France, and the European Organization for the
    Exploitation of Meteorological Satellites.

    The MIS sensor is not included in this chart because NOAA, NASA, and
    DOD have already agreed to include it on the second, third, and fourth
    NPOESS satellites. Options for the Space environment sensor suite/Space
    environment monitor and the Survivability sensor are not included
    because DOD has not yet released them.

    [End of figure]

    In addition to prioritizing sensors and identifying options, over the
    last year, NASA, NOAA, and DOD have taken steps to restore two sensors
    on a near-term basis. Specifically, in April 2007, the NPOESS Executive
    Committee decided to restore the limb component of the Ozone mapper/
    profiler suite to the NPP satellite and, in January 2008, to add the
    Clouds and the earth's radiant energy system to NPP. These decisions
    are expected to provide continuity for these sensors through
    approximately 2015. NASA officials noted that they also took steps to
    mitigate a potential gap in total solar irradiance data by proposing to
    fund an additional 4 years of the SORCE mission (from 2008 to 2012).

    Agencies Lack Plans to Ensure Long-Term Data Continuity:

    While NASA, NOAA, and DOD have taken preliminary steps to address the
    climate and space sensors that were removed from the NPOESS program
    almost 2 years ago, they do not yet have plans for restoring climate
    and space environment data on a long-term basis. The Office of Science
    and Technology Policy, an organization within the Executive Office of
    the President, is currently working with NASA, NOAA, and DOD to sort
    through the costs and benefits of the various options and to develop
    plans. However, this effort has been under way for almost 2 years and
    officials could not estimate when such plans would be completed.

    Delays in developing a comprehensive strategy for ensuring climate and
    space data continuity may result in the loss of selected options. For
    example, NASA and NOAA estimated that they would need to make a
    decision on whether to include a Total solar irradiance sensor on its
    planned Landsat Data Continuity Mission by March 2008, and on whether
    to build another satellite to obtain ocean altimeter data in 2008.
    Also, the NPOESS program office estimated that if any sensors are to be
    restored to an NPOESS satellite, it would need a decision about 6 years
    in advance of the planned satellite launch. Specifically, for a sensor
    to be included on the second NPOESS satellite, the sponsoring agency
    would need to commit to do so by January 2010.

    Without a timely decision on a plan for restoring satellite data on a
    long-term basis, NASA, NOAA, and DOD risk losing their windows of
    opportunity on selected options and restoring sensors in an ad hoc
    manner. Ultimately, the agencies risk a break in the continuity of
    climate and space environment data. As national and international
    concerns about climate change and global warming grow, these data are
    more important than ever to try to understand long-term climate trends
    and impacts.

    Conclusions:

    Over the past year, program officials have completed major activities
    associated with restructuring the NPOESS program and have made progress
    in developing and testing sensors, ground systems, and the NPP
    spacecraft. However, agency executives have still not signed off on key
    acquisition documents that were to be completed in September 2007, and
    one critical sensor has experienced technical problems and schedule
    delays that have led program officials to delay the NPP launch date by
    about 8 months. Any delay in the NPP launch date shortens the time
    available for incorporating lessons learned from NPP onto future NPOESS
    missions and could also lead to gaps in critical climate and weather
    data.

    When selected climate and space weather sensors were removed from the
    NPOESS program during its restructuring, NASA, NOAA, and DOD became
    responsible for determining what sensors to restore and how to restore
    them. This responsibility includes justifying the additional funding
    needed to develop these sensors within their respective agency's
    investment decision processes. In the 2 years since the restructuring,
    the agencies have identified their priorities and assessed their
    options for restoring sensor capabilities. In addition, the agencies
    made decisions to restore two sensors to the NPP satellite in order to
    mitigate near-term data gaps. However, the agencies lack plans for
    restoring sensor capabilities on a long-term basis. Without a timely
    decision on a long-term plan for restoring satellite data, the agencies
    risk a break in the continuity of climate and space environment data.
    With the increased concern about climate change and global warming,
    these data are more important than ever to try to understand long-term
    climate trends and impacts.

    Recommendations for Executive Action:

    In order to bring closure to efforts that have been under way for
    years, we are making recommendations to the Secretaries of Commerce and
    Defense and to the Administrator of NASA to establish plans on whether
    and how to restore the climate and space sensors removed from the
    NPOESS program by June 2009, in cases where the sensors are warranted
    and justified.

    In addition, we are reemphasizing our prior recommendation that the
    appropriate NASA, NOAA, and DOD executives immediately finalize key
    acquisition documents.

    Agency Comments:

    We received written comments on a draft of this report from the
    Secretary of the Department of Commerce (see app. III), the Deputy
    Assistant Secretary for Networks and Information Integration of the
    Department of Defense (see app. IV), and the Associate Administrator
    for the Science Mission Directorate of the National Aeronautics and
    Space Administration (see app. V). In their comments, all three
    agencies concurred with our recommendations. In addition, both the
    Department of Commerce and NASA reiterated that they are working with
    their partner agencies to finalize plans for restoring sensors to
    address the nation's long-term needs for continuity of climate
    measurements. Further, Commerce noted that DOD and NASA executives need
    to weigh in to resolve issues at, or immediately below, their levels in
    order to ensure prompt completion of the key acquisition documents.
    NASA noted that difficulties in gaining consensus across all three
    NPOESS agencies have delayed the signature of key acquisition
    documents, and reported that they are committed to moving these
    documents through the signature cycle once all of the issues and
    concerns are resolved.

    All three agencies also provided technical comments, which we have
    incorporated in this report as appropriate.

    As agreed with your offices, unless you publicly announce the contents
    of this report earlier, we plan no further distribution until 30 days
    from the report date. At that time, we will send copies of this report
    to interested congressional committees, the Secretary of Commerce, the
    Secretary of Defense, the Administrator of NASA, the Director of the
    Office of Management and Budget, and other interested parties. In
    addition, this report will be available at no charge on our Web site at
    [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov].

    If you have any questions on matters discussed in this report, please
    contact me at (202) 512-9286 or by e-mail at pownerd@gao.gov. Contact
    points for our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs
    may be found on the last page of this report. GAO staff who made major
    contributions to this report are listed in appendix VI.

    Signed by:

    David A. Powner:
    Director, Information Technology Management Issues:

    [End of section]

    Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology:

    Our objectives were to (1) evaluate the National Polar-orbiting
    Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program office's
    progress in restructuring the acquisition, (2) assess the status of key
    program components and risks, (3) identify how much notice the program
    office would need if agency sponsors outside the program choose to
    restore the eliminated or degraded sensors to the NPOESS program, and
    (4) assess plans of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    (NOAA), the Department of Defense (DOD), and the National Aeronautics
    and Space Administration (NASA) for obtaining the environmental data
    originally planned to be collected by NPOESS sensors, but then
    eliminated under the restructuring.

    To evaluate the NPOESS program office's progress in restructuring the
    acquisition program, we reviewed the program's Nunn-McCurdy
    certification decision memo, a later addendum to this decision, and
    program documentation including copies of required documentation,
    status briefings, and milestone progress reports. We also interviewed
    program office officials and attended senior-level management program
    review meetings to obtain information on the program's acquisition
    restructuring.

    To evaluate the status of key program components and risks, we reviewed
    program documentation associated with the program and its key
    components. We analyzed briefings and monthly program management
    documents to determine the status and risks of the program and key
    program segments. We also analyzed earned value management data
    obtained from the contractor to assess the contractor's performance
    against cost and schedule estimates. We obtained adequate assurance
    that these agency-provided data had been tested and were sufficient for
    our assessment purposes. We reviewed cost reports and program risk
    management documents and interviewed program officials to determine
    program and program segment risks that could negatively affect the
    program's ability to maintain the current schedule and cost estimates.
    We also interviewed agency officials from NASA, NOAA, DOD, and the
    NPOESS program office to determine the status and risks of the key
    program segments. Finally, we observed senior-level management review
    meetings to obtain information on the status of the NPOESS program.

    To identify how much notice the program office would need if agency
    sponsors outside the program choose to restore the eliminated or
    degraded sensors to the NPOESS program, we reviewed the restoration
    requirements in the program's Nunn-McCurdy certification decision memo
    and documentation related to the program's planning efforts. We also
    interviewed senior officials in the NPOESS program office and the
    Program Executive Office to obtain information on program plans related
    to sensor restoration, the historical basis for these time frames, and
    the flexibility of these time frames for different sensor technologies.

    To assess agency plans for obtaining the environmental data originally
    planned to be collected by NPOESS sensors but then eliminated under the
    restructuring, we reviewed reports and briefings produced by NASA,
    NOAA, DOD, and the National Research Council on the impact of
    eliminated sensors and priorities for restoring them. We also
    interviewed agency officials from NASA, NOAA, and DOD, and sought and
    received answers to questions from the Office of Science and Technology
    Policy regarding decisions to restore two sensors to the NPOESS
    Preparatory Project (NPP) satellite.

    We primarily performed our work at the NPOESS Integrated Program Office
    and at DOD, NASA, and NOAA offices in the Washington, D.C.,
    metropolitan area. In addition, we conducted work at NOAA offices in
    Suitland, Maryland, and at the Air Force Weather Agency in Omaha,
    Nebraska, because these sites will be the first two sites to host the
    NPOESS data processing system and to receive NPP data. We also
    conducted audit work at the Boulder, Colorado, facility of the
    contractor that is to integrate sensors on the NPP satellite. We
    conducted this performance audit from June 2007 to April 2008 in
    accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.

    [End of section]

    Appendix II: Status of Key Acquisition Documents:

    Table 11 identifies the key NPOESS acquisition documents as well as
    their original and revised due dates. Original due dates were specified
    in the June 2006 restructuring decision memo. The revised due dates
    were specified in an addendum to that memo, dated June 2007. Documents
    that are in bold are overdue.

    Table 11: Status of NPOESS Acquisition Documents:

    Acquisition document: Alternative Management Plan;
    Original due date: June 2007;
    Revised due date: September 1, 2007;
    Status: Completed.

    Acquisition document: Award Fee Plan/Fee Management Plan (overdue);
    Original due date: Unspecified;
    Revised due date: October 1, 2007;
    Status: Not completed.

    Acquisition document: Acquisition Program Baseline (overdue);
    Original due date: September 1, 2006;
    Revised due date: December 1, 2007;
    Status: Not completed.

    Acquisition document: Acquisition Strategy Report (overdue);
    Original due date: September 1, 2006;
    Revised due date: September 1, 2007;
    Status: Not completed.

    Acquisition document: Test and Evaluation Master Plan (overdue);
    Original due date: September 1, 2006;
    Revised due date: March 1, 2008;
    Status: Not completed.

    Acquisition document: System Engineering Plan;
    Original due date: September 1, 2006;
    Revised due date: September 1, 2007;
    Status: Completed.

    Acquisition document: Two-Orbit Plan (overdue);
    Original due date: November 15, 2006;
    Revised due date: October 1, 2007;
    Status: Not completed.

    Acquisition document: Human Capital Management Plan (to fill vacancies
    in the Integrated Program Office);
    Original due date: August 4, 2006;
    Revised due date: September 1, 2007;
    Status: Completed.

    Acquisition document: Logistics Support Plan;
    Original due date: September 2006;
    Revised due date: September 1, 2007;
    Status: Completed.

    Acquisition document: Diminishing Manufacturing Sources/Parts
    Obsolescence Plan;
    Original due date: September 2006;
    Revised due date: September 1, 2007;
    Status: Completed.

    Acquisition document: Tri-agency Memorandum of Agreement (overdue);
    Original due date: August 4, 2006;
    Revised due date: September 1, 2007;
    Status: Not completed.

    Acquisition document: Integrated Master Plan;
    Original due date: April 2007; Revised due date:
    September 1, 2007;
    Status: Completed.

    Acquisition document: Quarterly Integrated Baseline Review;
    Original due date: September 2006;
    Revised due date: September 1, 2007;
    Status: Completed.

    Source: GAO analysis of DOD and NPOESS program office data.

    [End of table]

    [End of section]

    Appendix III: Comments from the Department of Commerce:

    The Secretary Of Commerce:
    Washington, D.C. 20230:

    April 3, 2008:

    Mr. David A. Powner:
    Director:
    Information Technology Management Issues:
    U.S. Government Accountability Office:
    441 G Street, NW:
    Washington, D.C. 20548:

    Dear Mr. Powner:

    Thank you for the opportunity to review and comment on the Government
    Accountability Office's draft report entitled Environmental Satellites:
    Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on
    Whether and How to Ensure Climate Data Continuity (GAO-08-518). On
    behalf of the Department of Commerce, I enclose the National Oceanic
    and Atmospheric Administration's comments on the draft report.

    Sincerely,

    Signed by: Carlos M. Gutierrez:

    Enclosure:

    Department of Commerce:
    Comments on the Draft GAO Report Entitled "Environmental Satellites:
    Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on
    Whether and How to Ensure Climate Data Continuity"
    (GAO-08-518/April 2008):

    General Comments:

    The Department of Commerce (DOC) appreciates the opportunity to review
    this report on the National Polar-orbiting Environmental Satellite
    System (NPOESS) program. The Government Accountability Office (GAO)
    makes two recommendations, which it anticipates will bring closure to
    efforts underway. Both recommendations are directed to DOC, as well as
    to the Department of Defense (DoD) and the National Aeronautics and
    Space Administration (NASA). Overall, the report was fair and balanced
    and highlighted actions that are already underway for the program. DOC
    is committed to ensuring the successful execution of the NPOESS
    program.

    NOAA Response to GAO Recommendations:

    Recommendation 1: "In order to bring closure to efforts that have been
    underway for years, we are making recommendations to the Secretaries of
    Commerce and Defense and to the Administrator of NASA to establish
    plans on whether and how to restore the climate and space sensors
    removed from the NPOESS program by June 2009, in cases where the
    sensors are warranted and justified."

    NOAA Response: NOAA concurs with the recommendation and continues to
    work with NASA, the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), and
    the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on long-term plans to restore
    the climate sensors de-manifested from the NPOESS program. This
    supplements coordination with DoD and NASA as part of the triagency
    NPOESS Executive Committee. The FY 2009 President's Budget demonstrates
    this commitment by advancing plans already underway to re-manifest two
    key climate sensors through at least FY 2013. NOAA continues to work to
    finalize plans for restoring additional sensors, in coordination with
    NASA, OSTP, OMB, and DoD to address the nation's long-term need for
    continuity of these critical climate measurements.

    Recommendation 2: "In addition, we are reemphasizing our prior
    recommendation that the appropriate NASA, NOAA, and DOD executives
    immediately finalize key acquisition documents."

    NOAA Response: NOAA concurs with this recommendation. Executive
    attention and prompt resolution of the issues surrounding the
    documentation required by the Acquisition Decision Memorandum is
    required. All acquisition decision memorandum documents are proceeding
    through coordination at DOC, DoD and NASA. DoD and NASA executives need
    to weigh in to resolve issues at or immediately below their level.

    [End of section]

    Appendix IV: Comments from the Department of Defense:

    Office Of The Assistant Secretary Of Defense:
    Networks And Information Integration:
    6000 Defense Pentagon:
    Washington, DC 20301-6000:

    April 1, 2008:

    Mr. David A. Powner
    Director, Information Technology and Management Issues:
    U.S. Government Accountability Office:
    441 G Street, N.W.
    Washington, D.C. 20548:

    Dear Mr. Powner,

    This is the Department of Defense (DoD) response to the GAO Draft
    Report, GAO-08-518, "Environmental Satellites: Polar-orbiting Satellite
    Acquisition Faces Delays; Decisions Needed on Whether and How to Ensure
    Climate Data Continuity," dated March 6, 2008 (GAO Code 310848).

    The DoD acknowledges receipt of this draft report and concurs with GAO
    recommendations (attached).

    Signed by:

    Dr. Ronald C. Jost:
    Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense (C3, Space and Spectrum):

    Enclosure(s): As stated:

    GAO Draft Report Dated March 6, 2008:
    GAO-08-518 (GAO Code 310848)

    "Environmental Satellites: Polar-Orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces
    Delays; Decisions Needed On Whether And How To Ensure Climate Data
    Continuity"

    Department Of Defense Comments To The GAO Recommendations:

    General Comments: The report recognizes the positive effects of the
    restructured management for the program and also recognizes the
    significant work ahead on the program. The draft GAO findings are
    technically and programmatically consistent with the current NPOESS
    program,

    Recommendation 1: The GAO recommends that the Secretary of Defense
    establish plans on whether and how to restore the climate and space
    sensors removed from the National Polar-orbiting Operational
    Environmental Satellite System program by June 2009, in cases where the
    sensors are warranted and justified. (Page 43/GAO Draft Report)

    DOD Response: Concur.

    Recommendation 2: In addition, the GAO is reemphasizing a prior
    recommendation that the appropriate NASA, NOAA, and DoD executives
    immediately finalize key acquisition documents. (Page 43/GAO Draft
    Report)

    DOD Response: Concur. The System Engineering Plan was approved on 8 Nov
    07.

    Attachment:

    [End of section]

    Appendix V: Comments from the National Aeronautics and Space
    Administration:

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration:
    Headquarters:
    Washington, DC 20546-0001:

    Reply to Attn of: SMD/Earth Science Division:

    Mr. David A. Powner:
    Director:
    Information Technology Management Issues:
    Government Accountability Office:
    Washington, DC 20548:

    Dear Mr. Powner:

    Thank you for the opportunity to review your draft report entitled
    "Polar-orbiting Satellite Acquisition Faces Delays: Decisions Needed on
    Whether and How to Ensure Climate Data Continuity," (GAO-08-518)
    specific to the National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental
    Satellite System (NPOESS) program. The draft report contains two
    recommendations applicable to NASA and we concur with both of these
    recommendations.

    We agree with the importance of signing the programmatic documentation
    across all agencies. As documented in previous reports, the difficulty
    of gaining consensus across all three NPOESS agencies has delayed the
    signature on the remaining documents. We are committed to moving these
    documents through the signature cycle as quickly as possible once all
    of the issues and concerns are resolved.

    With respect to a long-term plan for flying the demanifested NPOESS
    sensors, NASA has taken significant steps to fly the Ozone Mapping and
    Profiling Suite (OMPS) Limb sensor and the Clouds and the Earth's
    Radiant Energy System (CERES) sensors on the NPOESS Preparatory Project
    (NPP) in order to mitigate the possibility of near term data gaps. This
    effort has afforded us the opportunity consider many options for flight
    of the remaining sensors for the long term. We have been working
    closely with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)
    on the details of our long-term plans and will keep you informed of our
    progress.

    We will continue to work with NOAA and DoD toward the success of the
    NPP and NPOESS programs. Thank you again for the opportunity to review
    this draft report, and we are looking forward to your final report to
    Congress.

    If you have any questions or require additional information, please
    contact Andrew Carson on (202) 358-1702.

    Sincerely,

    Signed by:

    Edward J. Weiler:
    Associate Administrator for Science Mission Directorate:

    cc:
    Science Mission Directorate/C.Gay:
    T. May:
    M. Freilich:
    A. Carson:
    M. Luther:
    S. Volz:

    [End of section]

    Appendix VI GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments:

    GAO Contact:

    David A. Powner, (202) 512-9286, or pownerd@gao.gov:

    Staff Acknowledgments:

    In addition to the contact named above, Colleen Phillips (Assistant
    Director), Carol Cha, Neil Doherty, Nancy Glover, Kathleen S. Lovett,
    and Kelly Shaw made key contributions to this report.

    [End of section]

    Footnotes:

    [1] GAO, Environmental Satellite Acquisitions: Progress and Challenges;
    [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-1099T]
    (Washington, D.C.: July 11, 2007); Polar-orbiting Operational
    Environmental Satellites: Restructuring Is Under Way, but Challenges
    and Risks Remain, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-
    910T] (Washington, D.C.: June 7, 2007); Polar-orbiting Operational
    Environmental Satellites: Restructuring Is Under Way, but Technical
    Challenges and Risks Remain, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-
    bin/getrpt?GAO-07-498] (Washington, D.C.: Apr. 27, 2007); Polar-
    orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites: Cost Increases Trigger
    Review and Place Program's Direction on Hold, [hyperlink,
    http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-573T] (Washington, D.C.: Mar.
    30, 2006); Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites:
    Technical Problems, Cost Increases, and Schedule Delays Trigger Need
    for Difficult Trade-off Decisions, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-
    bin/getrpt?GAO-06-249T] (Washington, D.C.: Nov. 16, 2005); Polar-
    orbiting Environmental Satellites: Information on Program Cost and
    Schedule Changes, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-
    1054] (Washington, D.C.: Sept. 30, 2004); Polar-orbiting Environmental
    Satellites: Project Risks Could Affect Weather Data Needed by Civilian
    and Military Users, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-
    03-987T] (Washington, D.C.: July 15, 2003); and Polar-orbiting
    Environmental Satellites: Status, Plans, and Future Data Management
    Challenges, [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-02-684T]
    (Washington, D.C.: July 24, 2002).

    [2] Three DMSP satellites remain to be launched. DOD has the option of
    delaying the launch of the final DMSP satellite until 2016 if it is
    needed to extend coverage in a different orbit.

    [3] Presidential Decision Directive NSTC-2, May 5, 1994.

    [4] The four sensors are the Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite,
    the Cross-track infrared sounder, the Advanced technology microwave
    sounder, and the Ozone mapper/profiler suite.

    [5] [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-573T],
    [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-249T], [hyperlink,
    http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-1054], [hyperlink,
    http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-03-987T], and [hyperlink,
    http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-02-684T].

    [6] 10 U.S.C. � 2433 is commonly referred to as Nunn-McCurdy.

    [7] 10 U.S.C. � 2433 has recently been amended by Pub. L. No. 109-163,
    � 802 (Jan. 6, 2006) and Pub. L. No. 109-364, � 213 (a) (Oct. 17,
    2006). The law now also includes cost growth thresholds from the
    program's original baseline.

    [8] DOD estimated that the acquisition portion of the certified program
    would cost $11.5 billion. The acquisition portion includes satellite
    development, production, and launch, but not operations and support
    costs after launch. When combined with an estimated $1 billion for
    operations and support after launch, this brings the program life cycle
    cost to $12.5 billion.

    [9] The European Organization for the Exploitation of Meteorological
    Satellites' MetOp program is a series of three polar-orbiting
    satellites dedicated to operational meteorology. MetOp satellites are
    planned to be launched sequentially over 14 years. The first of these
    satellites was launched in 2006 and is currently operational.

    [10] According to program officials, although the Nunn-McCurdy
    certification decision specifies NPP is to launch by January 2010, NASA
    planned to launch it by September 2009 to reduce the possibility of a
    climate data continuity gap.

    [11] [hyperlink, http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-498].

    [12] NPP is to include the Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite,
    Cross-track infrared sounder, Advanced technology microwave sounder,
    Ozone mapper/profiler suite (nadir and limb), and the Clouds and the
    earth's radiant energy system.

    [13] The three sensors included the flight unit for the Advanced
    technology microwave sounder and engineering design units for the
    Visible/infrared imager radiometer suite and the Cross-track infrared
    sounder.

    [14] The restructuring decision provided for replacing one of the
    removed sensors (the Conical microwave imager/sounder) with a sensor
    with reduced functionality (the Microwave imager/sounder).

    [15] National Research Council, Options to Ensure the Climate Record
    from the NPOESS and GOES-R Spacecraft: A Workshop Report (Washington,
    D.C.: 2007. Prepublication)

    [End of section]

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