Saving Our Future Requires Tough Choices Today (12/06/2007, GAO-08-353CG}

-------------------------Indexing Terms-------------------------
REPORTNUM:   GAO-08-353CG
    TITLE:   Saving Our Future Requires Tough Choices Today
     DATE:   12/06/2007



This is the accessible text file for CG Presentation number GAO-08-
353CG entitled 'Saving Our Future Requires Tough Choices Today' which 
was released on December 11, 2007.

United States Government Accountability Office:
GAO:

Saving Our Future Requires Tough Choices Today: 

Michigan State University: 
East Lansing, MI: 
December 6, 2007: 

The Honorable David M. Walker: 
Comptroller General of the United States:

GAO-08-353CG: 

Composition of Federal Spending: 

[See PDF for image] - graphic text:

There are three pie charts, containing the following compositions of 
spending by category:

Year: 1966;
Defense: 43%;
Social Security: 15%; 
Medicare and Medicaid: 1%; 
Net Interest: 7%; 
All Other: 34%.

Year: 1986;
Defense: 28%;
Social Security: 20%; 
Medicare and Medicaid: 10%; 
Net Interest: 14%; 
All Other: 29%.

Year: 2006;
Defense: 20%;
Social Security: 21%; 
Medicare and Medicaid: 19%; 
Net Interest: 9%; 
All Other: 32%.

Source: Office of Management and Budget and the Department of the 
Treasury.

[End of figure]

Federal Spending for Mandatory and Discretionary Programs:

[See PDF for image] - graphic text:

There are three pie charts, containing the following compositions of 
spending by category:

Year: 1966;
Discretionary: 67%; 
Mandatory: 26%; 
Net Interest: 7%. 

Year: 1986;
Discretionary: 44%; 
Mandatory: 42%; 
Net Interest: 14%. 

Year: 2006;
Discretionary: 38%; 
Mandatory: 53%; 
Net Interest: 9%. 

Source: Office of Management and Budget. 

[End of figure] 

Table: Fiscal Year 2005 and 2006 Deficits and Net Operating Costs: 

On-Budget Deficit, Fiscal Year 2005 ($ Billion): (494);
On-Budget Deficit, Fiscal Year 2006 ($ Billion): (434);

Unified Deficit[a], Fiscal Year 2005 ($ Billion): (318); 
Unified Deficit[a], Fiscal Year 2006 ($ Billion): (248);

Net Operating Cost[b], Fiscal Year 2005 ($ Billion): (760); 
Net Operating Cost[b], Fiscal Year 2006 ($ Billion): (450); 

Sources: Office of Management and Budget and Department of the 
Treasury. 

[a] Includes $173 billion in Social Security surpluses for fiscal year 
2005 and $185 billion for fiscal year 2006; $2 billion in Postal 
Service surpluses for fiscal year 2005 and $1 billion for fiscal year 
2006. 

[b] Fiscal year 2005 and 2006 net operating cost figures reflect 
significant but opposite changes in certain actuarial costs. For 
example, changes in interest rates and other assumptions used to 
estimate future veteransï¿½ compensation benefits increased net operating 
cost by $228 billion in 2005 and reduced net operating cost by $167 
billion in 2006. Therefore, the net operating costs for fiscal years 
2005 and 2006, exclusive of the effect of these actuarial cost 
fluctuations, were ($532) billion and ($617) billion, respectively. 

[End of table] 

Table: Major Fiscal Exposures ($ trillions):

Explicit liabilities (Publicly held debt, Military & civilian pensions 
& retiree health, Other): 
2000: $6.9; 
2006: $10.4; 
Percent increase: 52.

Commitments & contingencies (e.g., PBGC, undelivered orders):
2000: 0.5;
2006: 1.3
Percent increase: 140. 

Implicit exposures: 
2000: 13.0; (Future Social Security benefits: 3.8; Future Medicare Part 
A benefits: 2.7; Future Medicare Part B benefits: 6.5; Future Medicare 
Part D benefits: 0).
2006: 38.8; (Future Social Security benefits: 6.4; Future Medicare Part 
A benefits: 11.3; Future Medicare Part B benefits: 13.1; Future 
Medicare Part D benefits: 7.9).
Percent increase: 197. 

Total, 2000: $20.4; 
Total, 2006: $50.5; 
Percent increase: 147. 

Source: 2000 and 2006 Financial Report of the United States Government. 

Note: Totals and percent increases may not add due to 
rounding.Estimates for Social Security and Medicare are at present 
value as of January 1 of each year and all other data are as of 
September 30. 

[End of table]

Table: How Big is Our Growing Fiscal Burden? 

This fiscal burden can be translated and compared as follows: 

Total major fiscal exposures: $50.5 trillion; 
Total household net worth[1]: $53.3 trillion; 
Burden/Net worth ratio: 95 percent.

Burden[2]: 
Per person: $170,000; 
Per full-time worker: $400,000; 
Per household: $440,000.

Income: 
Median household income[3]: $46,326; 
Disposable personal income per capita[4]: $31,519. 

Source: GAO analysis. 

Notes: (1) Federal Reserve Board, Flow of Funds Accounts, Table B.100, 
2006:Q2 (Sept. 19, 2006); (2) Burdens are calculated using estimated 
total U.S. population as of 9/30/06, from the U.S. Census Bureau; full-
time workers reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis, in NIPA table 
6.5D (Aug. 2, 2006); and households reported by the U.S. Census Bureau, 
in Income, Poverty, and Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 
2005(Aug. 2006); (3) U.S. Census Bureau, Income, Poverty, and Health 
Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2005(Aug. 2006); and (4) 
Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays: October 2006, 
table 2, (Nov. 30, 2006). 

[End of table]

Potential Fiscal Outcomes Under Baseline Extended (January 2001); 
Revenues and Composition of Spending as a Share of GDP. 

[See PDF for image] 

This is a line/stacked bar graph with one line (revenue) and four 
stacked bars containing four spending items (Net interest, Social 
Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and All other spending). The vertical 
axis represents Percent of GDP and the horizontal axis represents 
fiscal years 2005, 2015[a], 2030[a], and 2040[a]. The following data is depicted: 

Fiscal year 2005: 
Net interest: 0.8%; 
Social Security: 4.3%; 
Medicare & Medicaid: 3.7%; 
All other spending: 7.994%; 
Revenue: 20.3%.

Fiscal year 2015: 
Net interest: 0%; 
Social Security: 5.1%; 
Medicare & Medicaid: 4.9%; 
All other spending: 5.574%; 
Revenue: 20.4%.

Fiscal year 2030: 
Net interest: 0%; 
Social Security: 6.6%; 
Medicare & Medicaid: 9.4%; 
All other spending: 3.991%; 
Revenue: 20.4%.

Fiscal year 2040: 
Net interest: 0%; 
Social Security: 6.7%; 
Medicare & Medicaid: 9%; 
All other spending: 4.361%; 
Revenue: 20.4%.

Source: GAOï¿½s January 2001 analysis. 

[a] All other spending is net of offsetting interest receipts. 

[End of graph]

Potential Fiscal Outcomes Under Alternative Simulation; Revenues and 
Composition of Spending as a Share of GDP. 

[See PDF for image] 

This is a line/stacked bar graph with one line (revenue) and four 
stacked bars containing four spending items (Net interest, Social 
Security, Medicare and Medicaid, and All other spending). The vertical 
axis represents Percent of GDP and the horizontal axis represents 
fiscal years 2006, 2015, 2030, and 2040. The following data is depicted: 

Fiscal year 2006: 
Net interest: 1.7%; 
Social Security: 4.2%; 
Medicare & Medicaid: 3.9%; 
All other spending: 10.6%; 
Revenue: 18.4%.

Fiscal year 2015: 
Net interest: 2.3%; 
Social Security: 4.8%; 
Medicare & Medicaid: 5.7%; 
All other spending: 9.6%; 
Revenue: 18%.

Fiscal year 2030: 
Net interest: 5.8%; 
Social Security: 6.6%; 
Medicare & Medicaid: 8.8%; 
All other spending: 9.6%; 
Revenue: 18.6%. 

Fiscal year 2040: 
Net interest: 11.6%; 
Social Security: 7.2%; 
Medicare & Medicaid: 10.8%; 
All other spending: 9.6%; 
Revenue: 18.6%. 

Source: GAOï¿½s August 2007 analysis. 

Notes: AMT exemption amount is retained at the 2006 level through 2017 
and expiring tax provisions are extended. After 2017, revenue as a 
share of GDP returns to its historical level of 18.3 percent of GDP 
plus expected revenues from deferred taxes, i.e. taxes on withdrawals 
from retirement accounts. Medicare spending is based on the Trustees 
April 2007 projections adjusted for the Centers for Medicare and 
Medicaid Services alternative assumption that physician payments are 
not reduced as specified under current law. 

[End of graph]

State and Local Governments Face Increasing Fiscal Challenges: 

[See PDF for image] 

This is a line graph with two lines (Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure 
and Net-lending/Net-borrowing). The vertical axis represents Percent of 
GDP from -6 to +2 and the horizontal axis represents fiscal years 1980 
through 2050. The following data is depicted: 

1980: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.35873454; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.236601541. 

1981: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.34624089; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.169415676. 
 
1982: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.363124424; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.387096774. 

1983: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.774990811; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.138547233. 

1984: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.8152395; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: 0.223736398. 

1985: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.810172263; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: 0.035542497. 

1986: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.820186878; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.103074303. 

1987: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.348462918; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.346028062. 

1988: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.415329754; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.289980015. 

1989: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.461047699; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.302676683. 
	
1990: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.12076304; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.649652772. 

1991: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -0.002324922; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.823896329. 

1992: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.105991132;  
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.675323856. 	
	
1993: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.17518701; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.573797579. 

1994: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.15154266; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.429852097. 

1995: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.226784; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.446084594. 
	
1996: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.382430375; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.292955008. 

1997: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.540310442; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.225184543. 

1998: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.711478221; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.113181662. 

1999: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.528375987; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.240602477. 

2000: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.51757156; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.309666904. 

2001: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.213052923; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.800750395. 

2002: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -0.212758845; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -1.20443952. 

2003: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -0.034231078; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -1.04098241. 

2004: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.03822412; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.899039488. 

2005: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.262769152; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.762696896. 

2006: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.21944499; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.788126765. 

2007: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.412715768; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.638191188. 

2008: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.345168264; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.630180116. 

2009: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.333020741; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.603351831. 

2010: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.302656141; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.605141837. 

2011: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.257109542; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.630946404. 

2012: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.206218592; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.658720463. 

2013: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.16406332; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.681176041. 

2014: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.119677687; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.707576964. 

2015: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.076206951; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.734940534. 

2016: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: 0.026942361; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.769406462. 

2017: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -0.032335263; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.814653671. 

2018: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -0.109446599; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.878965311. 

2019: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -0.19227354; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -0.950160744. 

2020: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -0.28349272; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -1.030954125. 

2021: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -0.386388384; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -1.123450085. 

2022: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -0.483216203; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -1.211277239. 

2023: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -0.557423995; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -1.275859781. 

2024: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -0.667104614; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -1.376919803. 

2025: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -0.781500085; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -1.482014441. 

2026: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -0.866176187; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -1.558258502. 

2027: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -0.971014018; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -1.654401786. 

2028: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -1.059403133; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -1.733838263. 

2029: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -1.167739726; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -1.833479877. 

2030: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -1.259948277; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -1.916759702. 

2031: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -1.372065386; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -2.020169149. 

2032: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -1.467520327; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -2.107108096. 

2033: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -1.596865114. 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -2.227702996. 

2034: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -1.728257684; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -2.350527637. 

2035: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -1.829728717; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -2.443203659. 

2036: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -1.964429157. 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -2.569286091. 

2037: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -2.100986709; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -2.697381312. 

2038: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -2.205225568; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -2.7928813. 

2039: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -2.325201615; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -2.904115765. 

2040: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -2.430489372; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -3.00097328. 

2041: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -2.569712106; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -3.131648373. 

2042: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -2.709424661; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -3.262966376. 

2043: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -2.818508477; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -3.363795891. 

2044: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -2.947568546; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -3.484450067. 

2045: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -3.058317306; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -3.58693672. 

2046: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -3.188512473; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -3.709010629.

2047: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -3.300350183; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -3.812861884. 

2048: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -3.432143889; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -3.936539309. 

2049: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -3.545556545; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -4.041974237. 

2050: 
Operating Surplus/Deficit Measure: -3.686995315; 
Net-lending/Net-borrowing: -4.175627129. 

Sources: Historical data from National Income and Product Accounts. 
Historical data from 1980ï¿½2006, GAO projections from 2007ï¿½2050 using 
many CBO projections and assumptions, particularly for next 10 years. 

[End of graph]

State and Local Fiscal Challenges Add to the Federal Governmentï¿½s 
Fiscal Challenge: 

[See PDF for image] 

This is a line graph with two lines (Federal Surplus/Deficit and 
Combined Surplus/Deficit). The vertical axis represents Percent of GDP 
from -20 to +5 and the horizontal axis represents fiscal years 2000 
through 2050. The following data is depicted: 

Fiscal year: 2000: 		
Federal Surplus/Deficit: 2.4;  
Combined Surplus/Deficit: 2.141.

Fiscal year: 2001: 	
Federal Surplus/Deficit: 1.3; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: 0.596.

Fiscal year: 2002: 	
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -1.5; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -2.624.

Fiscal year: 2003: 	
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -3.5; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -4.577. 

Fiscal year: 2004: 	
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -3.6; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -4.516. 

Fiscal year: 2005: 	
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -2.6; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -3.389.

Fiscal year: 2006: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -1.9; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: - 2.677. 

Fiscal year: 2007: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -1.2; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -1.8. 

Fiscal year: 2008: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -1.6; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -2.2. 

Fiscal year: 2009: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -2; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -2.6.

Fiscal year: 2010: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -2.6; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -3.2.

Fiscal year: 2011: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -2.9; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -3.5. 

Fiscal year: 2012: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -2.8
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -3.5. 

Fiscal year: 2013: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -3.3; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -4. 

Fiscal year: 2014: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -3.6; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -4.3. 

Fiscal year: 2015: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -3.8; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -4.5. 

Fiscal year: 2016: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -4.2; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -4.9. 

Fiscal year: 2017: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -4.4; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -5.2. 

Fiscal year: 2018: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -4.8; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -5.7. 

Fiscal year: 2019: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -5.2; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -6.1. 

Fiscal year: 2020: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -5.6; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -6.6. 

Fiscal year: 2021: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -6.1; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -7.2. 

Fiscal year: 2022: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -6.7; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -7.8. 

Fiscal year: 2023: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -7.2; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -8.4. 

Fiscal year: 2024: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -7.8; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -9.2. 

Fiscal year: 2025: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -8.5; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -9.9. 

Fiscal year: 2026: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -9; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -10.6. 

Fiscal year: 2027: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -9.7; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -11.3. 

Fiscal year: 2028: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -10.3; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -12. 

Fiscal year: 2029: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -10.9; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -12.7. 

Fiscal year: 2030: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -11.5; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -13.4. 

Fiscal year: 2031: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -12.2; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -14.2. 

Fiscal year: 2032: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -12.8; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -14.9. 

Fiscal year: 2033: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -13.5; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit:-15.7. 

Fiscal year: 2034: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -14.2; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -16.6. 

Fiscal year: 2035: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -14.8; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -17.3. 

Fiscal year: 2036: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -15.5; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -18.1. 

Fiscal year: 2037: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -16.3; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -18.9. 

Fiscal year: 2038: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -16.9; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -19.7. 

Fiscal year: 2039: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -17.6; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -20.5. 

Fiscal year: 2040: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -18.3; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -21.3. 

Fiscal year: 2041: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -19; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -22.1. 

Fiscal year: 2042: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -19.8; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -23. 

Fiscal year: 2043: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -20.4; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -23.8. 

Fiscal year: 2044: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -21.2; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -24.6. 

Fiscal year: 2045: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -21.9; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -25.5. 

Fiscal year: 2046: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -22.7; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -26.4. 

Fiscal year: 2047: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -23.4; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -27.2. 

Fiscal year: 2048: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -24.2; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -28.1. 

Fiscal year: 2049: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -24.9; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit:- 29. 

Fiscal year: 2050: 
Federal Surplus/Deficit: -25.8; 
Combined Surplus/Deficit: -29.9. 

Source: Historical data from National Income and Product Accounts, GAO 
Analysis. 

Note: Historical data from 2000ï¿½2006, projections from 2007ï¿½2050; state 
and local balance measure is similar to the federal unified budget 
measure. Federal Simulation Assumptions: Discretionary spending grows 
with GDP after 2007. AMT exemption amount is retained at the 2006 level 
through 2017 and expiring tax provisions are extended. After 2017, 
revenue as a share of GDP returns to its historical level of 18.3 
percent of GDP plus expected revenues from deferred taxes, i.e. taxes 
on withdrawals from retirement accounts. Medicare spending is based on 
the Trusteesï¿½ April 2007 projections adjusted for the Centers for 
Medicare and Medicaid Servicesï¿½ alternative assumption that physician 
payments are not reduced as specified under current law. 

[End of graph]

Current Fiscal Policy Is Unsustainable: 

The ï¿½Status Quoï¿½is Not an Option: 
* We face large and growing structural deficits largely due to known 
demographic trends and rising health care costs. 
* GAOï¿½s simulations show that balancing the budget in 2040 could 
require actions as large as: 
- Cutting total federal spending by 60 percent or; 
- Raising federal taxes to 2 times today's level. 

Faster Economic Growth Can Help, but It Cannot Solve the Problem: 
* Closing the current long-term fiscal gap based on reasonable 
assumptions would require real average annual economic growth in the 
double digit range every year for the next 75 years. 
* During the 1990s, the economy grew at an average 3.2 percent per 
year. 
* As a result, we cannot simply grow our way out of this problem. Tough 
choices will be required. 

The Way Forward: A Three-Pronged Approach:

1. Improve Financial Reporting, Public Education, and Performance 
Metrics. 
2. Strengthen Budget and Legislative Processes and Controls. 
3. Fundamentally Reexamine & Transform for the 21st Century (i.e., 
entitlement programs, other spending, and tax policy). 

Solutions Require Active Involvement from both the Executive and 
Legislative Branches. 

Key National Indicators: 

* What: A portfolio of economic, social, and environmental outcome-
based measures that could be used to help assess the nationï¿½s and other 
governmental jurisdictionsï¿½ position and progress; 

* Who: Many countries and several states, regions, and localities have 
already undertaken related initiatives (e.g., Australia, New Zealand, 
Canada, United Kingdom, Oregon, Silicon Valley (California) and 
Boston); 

* Why: Development of such a portfolio of indicators could have a 
number of possible benefits, including; 
- Serving as a framework for related strategic planning efforts; 
- Enhancing performance and accountability reporting; 
- Informing public policy decisions, including much needed baseline 
reviews of existing government policies, programs, functions, and 
activities; 
- Facilitating public education and debate as well as an informed 
electorate; 

* Way Forward: Consortium of key players housed by the National 
Academies domestically and related efforts by the OECD and others 
internationally. 

Key National Indicators: Where the United States Ranks:

The United States may be the only superpower, but compared to most 
other OECD countries on selected key economic, social, and 
environmental indicators, on average, the U.S. ranks 16 out of 28.

OECD Categories for Key Indicators (2006 OECD Factbook):

* Population/Migration;
* Energy;
* Environment;
* Labor Market;
* Education;
* Public Finance;
* Science & Tech.;
* Quality of Life;
* Macroeconomic Trends;
* Economic Globalization
* Prices. 

Moving the Debate Forward: 

The Sooner We Get Started, the Better:
* The miracle of compounding is currently working against us; 
* Less change would be needed, and there would be more time to make 
adjustments; 
* Our demographic changes will serve to make reform more difficult over 
time. 

Need Public Education, Discussion, and Debate: 
* The role of government in the 21st Century; 
* Which programs and policies should be changed and how; 
* How government should be financed. 

These Challenges Go Beyond Numbers and Dollarsï¿½Itï¿½s About Values and 
People.

{End of presentation]

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