Defense Infrastructure: NORAD and USNORTHCOM Need to Reevaluate  
Vulnerabilities Associated with Moving the NORAD Command Center  
from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson Air Force Base, and to	 
Acknowledge Acceptance of the Risks (18-SEP-08, GAO-08-1054R).	 
                                                                 
In July 2006, the former Commander of North American Aerospace	 
Defense Command (NORAD) and United States Northern Command	 
(USNORTHCOM) announced plans to relocate certain functions from  
Cheyenne Mountain to create an integrated command center in	 
Building 2 at Peterson Air Force Base (AFB), Colorado. In May	 
2007, we reported that NORAD and USNORTHCOM had not analyzed the 
anticipated operational effects--both positive and negative--of  
the relocation, and that the Department of Defense (DOD) could	 
not discern the full costs or security implications of the move  
until ongoing security assessments had been completed and a	 
protection level designated for the integrated command center. We
suggested that Congress should consider restricting DOD's	 
authority to fund the relocation until all security analyses were
complete, the full costs for the move were determined, and DOD	 
provided Congress with an analysis of the operational effects of 
the proposed realignments. As a result, in the National Defense  
Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2008 (hereinafter referred to  
as the Act), Congress directed the Secretary of Defense to submit
a report by March 1, 2008, assessing the relocation of the NORAD 
Command Center and related functions from Cheyenne Mountain to	 
Peterson AFB. The Act required the report to contain (1) an	 
analysis comparing the total costs associated with the		 
relocation, including costs determined as part of ongoing	 
security-related studies of the relocation, to anticipated	 
operational benefits from the relocation; (2) a detailed	 
explanation of the backup functions that will remain located at  
Cheyenne Mountain, and how those functions will maintain	 
operational connectivity with their related commands; (3) the	 
final plans for the relocation of the NORAD Command Center and	 
related functions; and (4) the findings and recommendations	 
resulting from the independent security and vulnerability	 
assessment of Peterson AFB, including the Secretary of Defense's 
plans for mitigating any security and vulnerability risks identif
ied and estimates for associated costs and scheduling. The Act	 
mandated that we review DOD's report and the final plans for the 
relocation, and that we report to Congress within 120 days. On	 
March 3, 2008, DOD submitted its report to Congress. DOD's report
included a cost-benefit analysis comparing the following three	 
alternatives: Status quo--retain separate command centers at	 
Cheyenne Mountain and Peterson AFB. Establish a combined and	 
integrated command center at Peterson AFB with reach-back	 
capability to the computer systems at Cheyenne Mountain.	 
Establish a combined command center at Peterson AFB that	 
duplicates the systems at Cheyenne Mountain.			 
-------------------------Indexing Terms------------------------- 
REPORTNUM:   GAO-08-1054R					        
    ACCNO:   A84287						        
  TITLE:     Defense Infrastructure: NORAD and USNORTHCOM Need to     
Reevaluate Vulnerabilities Associated with Moving the NORAD	 
Command Center from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson Air Force Base,
and to Acknowledge Acceptance of the Risks			 
     DATE:   09/18/2008 
  SUBJECT:   Accountability					 
	     Air Force bases					 
	     Cost analysis					 
	     Critical infrastructure				 
	     Defense cost control				 
	     Defense operations 				 
	     Defense procurement				 
	     Facility security					 
	     Information classification 			 
	     Military facilities				 
	     Relocation allowances				 
	     Reporting requirements				 
	     Risk assessment					 
	     Risk management					 
	     Schedule slippages 				 
	     Security assessments				 
	     Security policies					 
	     Strategic planning 				 
	     NORAD Command Center				 

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GAO-08-1054R

   

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GAO-08-1054R: 

United States Government Accountability Office: 
Washington, DC 20548: 

September 18, 2008: 

Congressional Committees: 

Subject: Defense Infrastructure: NORAD and USNORTHCOM Need to 
Reevaluate Vulnerabilities Associated with Moving the NORAD Command 
Center from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson Air Force Base, and to 
Acknowledge Acceptance of the Risks: 

In July 2006, the former Commander of North American Aerospace Defense 
Command (NORAD) and United States Northern Command (USNORTHCOM) 
announced plans to relocate certain functions from Cheyenne Mountain to 
create an integrated command center in Building 2 at Peterson Air Force 
Base (AFB), Colorado. In May 2007, we reported that NORAD and 
USNORTHCOM had not analyzed the anticipated operational effects--both 
positive and negative--of the relocation, and that the Department of 
Defense (DOD) could not discern the full costs or security implications 
of the move until ongoing security assessments had been completed and a 
protection level designated for the integrated command center.[Footnote 
1] We suggested that Congress should consider restricting DOD's 
authority to fund the relocation until all security analyses were 
complete, the full costs for the move were determined, and DOD provided 
Congress with an analysis of the operational effects of the proposed 
realignments. 

As a result, in the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 
2008[Footnote 2] (hereinafter referred to as the Act), Congress 
directed the Secretary of Defense to submit a report by March 1, 2008, 
assessing the relocation of the NORAD Command Center and related 
functions from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson AFB. The Act required the 
report to contain (1) an analysis comparing the total costs associated 
with the relocation, including costs determined as part of ongoing 
security-related studies of the relocation, to anticipated operational 
benefits from the relocation; (2) a detailed explanation of the backup 
functions that will remain located at Cheyenne Mountain, and how those 
functions will maintain operational connectivity with their related 
commands; (3) the final plans for the relocation of the NORAD Command 
Center and related functions; and (4) the findings and recommendations 
resulting from the independent security and vulnerability assessment of 
Peterson AFB, including the Secretary of Defense's plans for mitigating 
any security and vulnerability risks identified and estimates for 
associated costs and scheduling. The Act mandated that we review DOD's 
report and the final plans for the relocation, and that we report to 
Congress within 120 days. On March 3, 2008, DOD submitted its report to 
Congress.[Footnote 3] DOD's report included a cost-benefit analysis 
comparing the following three alternatives:[Footnote 4] 

* Status quo--retain separate command centers at Cheyenne Mountain and 
Peterson AFB. 

* Establish a combined and integrated command center at Peterson AFB 
with reach-back capability to the computer systems at Cheyenne 
Mountain. 

* Establish a combined command center at Peterson AFB that duplicates 
the systems at Cheyenne Mountain. 

DOD's report to Congress also described the functions remaining at 
Cheyenne Mountain, provided a diagram of the final configuration of the 
command center at Peterson AFB, summarized the Air Force Space 
Command's classified security and vulnerability assessment, known as 
the Systems Effectiveness Assessment (SEA), and included the SEA as an 
attachment.[Footnote 5] Our report to Congress,[Footnote 6] which was 
classified by DOD, was issued on July 1, 2008, and provides additional 
details on the security issues surrounding the relocation of the NORAD 
Command Center from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson AFB. This report is 
the unclassified version of our classified report. 

Because of the nature of the assets being moved, the Air Force must 
designate a protection level for the assets being moved from Cheyenne 
Mountain to Peterson AFB. The Air Force uses its protection level 
system to allocate security resources based on the respective risks 
associated with different assets. If resources are not available to 
meet the assigned protection level requirements, then the commander 
must obtain permanent exceptions or temporary waivers from the security 
requirements and develop compensatory measures.[Footnote 7] The Air 
Force designated the functions moving into the integrated command 
center as Protection Level-1, signifying that the loss, theft, 
destruction, misuse, or compromise of these assets would result in 
great harm to the strategic capability of the United States. 

DOD is proceeding with its plans to relocate the NORAD Command Center 
and other functions from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson AFB and, 
according to DOD officials, as of May 29, 2008, operations had already 
begun at the combined command center. 

In reviewing DOD's report to Congress, our objectives were (1) to 
evaluate DOD's assumptions in its cost-benefit analysis of the three 
alternatives, and their effect on the recommendation; (2) to determine 
the extent to which DOD's report assessed and contained a plan to 
mitigate the security risks DOD identified at Peterson AFB; and (3) to 
determine the extent to which the final relocation plans take into 
account security issues raised in DOD's report. 

To conduct our evaluation, we reviewed DOD's report to Congress and the 
associated security study completed by Air Force Space Command. To 
assess the assumptions DOD used in its cost-benefit analysis related to 
the relocation and to determine how they affected the recommendation, 
we reviewed the cost-benefit analysis, examining the costs as well as 
the benefits, and determined whether DOD had completed a sensitivity 
analysis for key sources of uncertainty. However, we did not 
independently verify or validate the cost estimate. We examined the 
assumptions, such as the discount rate used, and how benefits were 
measured. We also performed a sensitivity analysis for benefits to 
determine how sensitive the outcomes were to changes in benefit scores. 
To determine the extent to which DOD's report assessed and contained a 
plan to mitigate the security risks DOD identified at Peterson AFB, we 
compared the Air Force Space Command's security study with DOD's report 
to Congress, examining how DOD characterized the risks, mitigation 
plans, and cost and schedule estimates contained in the security study. 
To determine the extent to which the final relocation plans presented 
in DOD's report took into account security issues raised in DOD's 
report, we compared the report's presentation of plans with the 
report's summary of security issues. We also reviewed prior GAO work on 
the Cheyenne Mountain relocation. We conducted our work from April to 
July 2008 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing 
standards. Those standards require that we plan and perform the audit 
to obtain sufficient, appropriate evidence to provide a reasonable 
basis for our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. 
We believe that the evidence obtained provides a reasonable basis for 
our findings and conclusions based on our audit objectives. We prepared 
this unclassified version of our classified report from August to 
September 2008. 

Summary: 

DOD's report to Congress neither recognized the uncertainty of benefit 
scoring of the three options it analyzed for the planned relocation of 
certain functions from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson AFB, Colorado, nor 
included a sensitivity analysis for the benefits used in calculating 
the cost-benefit ratio for the options. The scoring of the benefit 
factors was based on functional managers' subjective estimates of the 
factors' relative importance and fulfillment of requirements. However, 
DOD's cost-benefit analysis did not recognize the uncertainty of the 
benefits. Moreover, although Office of Management and Budget (OMB) 
guidance calls for the performance of a sensitivity analysis of key 
sources of uncertainty, such as, in this case, the subjective scoring 
of benefits, there is no indication that DOD performed such an analysis 
regarding either costs or benefits, and we found that a slight change 
in the benefit scores could significantly change the outcome as 
measured by the cost-benefit ratio. For example, raising the benefit 
score for the status quo by just 5 percent--a change that, in our 
opinion, falls within the margin of imprecision for a subjective 
judgment--would cause the status quo to become the preferred option. In 
addition, based on the limited cost information in DOD's report to 
Congress, it is unclear how sensitive DOD's cost estimates are to 
different assumptions. 

DOD's report to Congress did not provide a detailed mitigation strategy 
for all of the security and vulnerability risks identified in Air Force 
Space Command's classified security assessment and did not include all 
plans, costs, or schedule estimates. Also, it is unclear whether 
security upgrades meet necessary requirements. DOD's report understates 
the security challenges at Peterson AFB. Further, like the SEA, DOD's 
report does not address the full spectrum of threats and hazards 
associated with Peterson AFB. The classified version of this report 
contains information about the specific threats that were excluded from 
the scope of the Air Force Space Command's security assessment, and 
raises questions about how fully the SEA addresses certain key threats 
and all hazards. DOD's report also did not include plans, costs, or 
schedule estimates for mitigating all risks identified, since some 
recommendations were awaiting a conceptual design from Air Force Space 
Command before plans, costs, or schedule estimates could be determined. 
Furthermore, although the missions moving from Cheyenne Mountain were 
designated as Protection Level-1, at the time DOD issued its report to 
Congress, it did not state whether all recommended security upgrades 
met Protection Level-1 requirements and, therefore, whether waivers 
would be needed to begin operations at Peterson AFB. DOD officials told 
us that they had obtained waivers and, as a result, the new combined 
command center met the necessary security requirements as of May 28, 
2008. DOD subsequently provided us with copies of three waivers (known 
as a Request for Deviation from Security Criteria), each of which was 
approved on May 20, 2008. 

The section of the DOD report regarding final plans for the relocation 
does not identify any security issues, including those that were 
identified in the SEA. Rather, it includes only a diagram of the final 
configuration of the command center at Peterson AFB. 

We are recommending that the Commander of NORAD and USNORTHCOM 
reevaluate the full spectrum of security vulnerabilities associated 
with moving the NORAD Command Center and related functions from 
Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson AFB, and that the Commander certify that 
he is fully aware of and accepts all of the risks. 

In written comments on a draft of this report, DOD disagreed with our 
recommendation that the Commander of NORAD and USNORTHCOM reevaluate 
the full spectrum of security vulnerabilities associated with moving 
the NORAD Command Center and related functions from Cheyenne Mountain 
to Peterson AFB. DOD stated that the SEA focused on threats considered 
most likely to affect Peterson AFB and Building 2, and that DOD viewed 
a threat assessment covering all possible threats encompassing both 
Cheyenne Mountain and Building 2 as unfocused. DOD stated that it 
considers the risk of certain other key threats--which we identified in 
the classified version of this report--to be low and outweighed by the 
benefits provided by the combined command center. However, we note that 
although the SEA did develop a "threat spectrum" that defined a range 
of potential threats to NORAD and USNORTHCOM, at the time of our 
review, DOD could not provide any documented evidence of having 
performed a risk assessment that analyzed the most likely threats to 
Peterson AFB and Building 2, nor any documented basis for its assumed 
assessment of low probability for certain key threats that were 
excluded from the scope of the SEA. We continue to believe that DOD 
should document having performed a risk assessment that analyzed the 
most likely threats to Peterson AFB and Building 2, along with the 
basis for its assumed assessment of low probability and adequate 
warning of certain key threats. DOD neither agreed nor disagreed with 
our recommendation that the Commander certify that he is fully aware of 
all of the risks associated with moving the NORAD Command Center and 
related functions from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson AFB, and accepts 
those risks. DOD stated that through the waiver process and other 
mitigation actions, the Commander has formally accepted the outstanding 
actions and associated risks related to a Protection Level-1 facility. 
DOD recently provided us with copies of three waivers; however, it was 
unclear to us that the Commander had explicitly accepted the risks 
posed by the full spectrum of threats or hazards. Thus, we continue to 
believe that our recommendation has merit and that he should certify 
that he accepts those risks. 

Subsequent to DOD's letter containing the comments restated above, DOD 
provided us with another letter on August 29, 2008, containing its 
comments on our final classified report. In its additional comments, 
the department stated that NORAD and USNORTHCOM are in the process of 
implementing GAO's recommendation that the Commander of NORAD and 
USNORTHCOM reevaluate the full spectrum of security vulnerabilities 
associated with moving the NORAD Command Center and related functions 
from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson AFB. Specifically, DOD stated that a 
new Director of Security has been appointed and is leading a Security 
Tiger Team, which has partnered with Sandia National Laboratories to 
evaluate all threats and vulnerabilities to the headquarters. Moreover, 
DOD stated that in concert with other planned vulnerability 
assessments, the Security Tiger Team is recommending actions to 
mitigate vulnerabilities and the Commander is incrementally approving 
changes to the security posture of the headquarters as a result of this 
process. We have not verified or validated the information provided in 
these additional comments. 

Background: 

During a series of major exercises conducted in 2005, the NORAD/ 
USNORTHCOM Commander directed planning, operations, and command and 
control elements from two separate command centers. In the course of 
the exercises, the Commander identified impediments to unity of effort 
and time-critical decision making, and he attributed these impediments 
to the geographic separation of the two command centers. A subsequent 
analysis conducted by a NORAD/USNORTHCOM senior official concluded that 
having a single command center at Peterson AFB represented the only 
option that offered both the physical space required for a consolidated 
command center and a strengthened unity of effort between the commands. 
A USNORTHCOM study[Footnote 8] outlined a second option to move certain 
functions out of Cheyenne Mountain while retaining the core computer 
systems there, providing what DOD refers to as "reach-back." NORAD and 
USNORTHCOM officials stated that once the functions and their 
associated personnel were moved, they intended to use Cheyenne Mountain 
as an alternate command center. 

DOD's Cost-Benefit Analysis Does Not Recognize the Uncertainty of 
Benefits and Lacks a Sensitivity Analysis: 

DOD's report to Congress neither recognized the uncertainty of benefit 
scoring of the three options it analyzed for the planned relocation of 
certain functions from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson AFB, Colorado, nor 
included a sensitivity analysis for the benefits used in calculating 
the cost-benefit ratio for the options. DOD's report used subjective 
and imprecise measurements of the benefits of the three options it 
analyzed for the planned relocation of certain functions from Cheyenne 
Mountain to Peterson AFB, Colorado. We recognize that subjectivity can 
be involved in estimating costs and benefits, which typically are 
uncertain because of imprecision in both underlying data and modeling 
assumptions. However, OMB guidance states that "because uncertainty is 
common to many analyses, its effects should be analyzed and reported." 
[Footnote 9] As required by the Act, DOD's report to Congress included 
an analysis comparing the total costs associated with the relocation of 
the NORAD Command Center and related functions against the anticipated 
operational benefits. DOD calculated the costs and benefits for the 
following three alternatives: 

* Alternative 1--Status Quo: retaining separate command centers (split 
operations) at Cheyenne Mountain and Peterson AFB. 

* Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: establishing a combined and 
integrated command center at Peterson AFB (the primary command center), 
with reach-back capability to key computer systems at Cheyenne Mountain 
(the alternate command center). 

* Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: establishing a combined command 
center at Peterson AFB (the primary command center) that duplicates the 
capabilities at Cheyenne Mountain (the secondary command center). This 
third alternative would result in stand-alone systems at both sites. 

In calculating costs, DOD considered nonrecurring investment costs and 
recurring costs. For all three alternatives, the nonrecurring 
investment costs were sustained in the first year of analysis, and the 
recurring costs would be sustained in every year over the 10-year 
period of analysis. Costs that were identical for each of the 
alternatives were not considered. All of the costs were presented in 
2008 constant dollars. The total costs for the three alternatives over 
the 10-year period of analysis were calculated in present value 
[Footnote 10] terms using a 2.8 percent discount rate.[Footnote 11] 
Table 1 shows the total costs for each alternative. 

Table 1: Comparison of Total Costs for the Three Relocation 
Alternatives (2008 constant dollars): 

Present value of total costs: 
Alternative 1- Status Quo: $20,011,111; 
Alternative 2- Reach-back Capability: $71,762,643; 
Alternative 3- Duplicate Systems: $137,038,661. 

Source: DOD. 

[End of table] 

The derived benefits from each alternative could not be measured 
monetarily, so DOD considered nine nonmonetary factors. According to 
DOD, these benefit factors were analyzed during a meeting of NORAD/ 
USNORTHCOM functional managers. Each manager ranked the nonmonetary 
benefits, and the weight points were assigned on a scale of 1 through 
10 to reflect each benefit's relative importance; the more important 
the benefit, the greater the number of weight points. Each of the three 
alternatives was weighted on a continuous scale from 0 to 100 percent, 
with 0 percent signifying that the alternative does not meet all 
requirements and 100 percent signifying that the alternative meets all 
requirements. These two weight values--weight points and requirements 
percentages--were multiplied to derive a benefit score. The benefit 
score was divided into the total cost of an alternative to determine 
the cost-benefit ratio for each alternative. As table 2 shows, 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability--has the lowest cost-benefit 
ratio, at $1,028,855, indicating that it had the lowest cost per unit 
of benefit, that is, the cheapest alternative relative to benefits. 

Table 2: Cost-Benefit Analysis of the Three Relocation Alternatives: 

Benefit factors: Superior decision making; 
Weight points: 10.0; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Requirements (percent): 15; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Benefit score: 1.5; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Requirements (percent): 100; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Benefit score: 10.0; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Requirements (percent): 100; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Benefit score: 10.0. 

Benefit factors: Full spectrum integration; 
Weight points: 9.0; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Requirements (percent): 15; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Benefit score: 1.4; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Requirements (percent): 100; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Benefit score: 9.0; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Requirements (percent): 100; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Benefit score: 9.0. 

Benefit factors: Simultaneous command and control processes; 
Weight points: 9.0; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Requirements (percent): 25; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Benefit score: 2.3; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Requirements (percent): 100; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Benefit score: 9.0; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Requirements (percent): 100; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Benefit score: 9.0. 

Benefit factors: Dispersed command and control; 
Weight points: 8.0; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Requirements (percent): 40; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Benefit score: 3.2; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Requirements (percent): 100; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Benefit score: 7.2; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Requirements (percent): 90; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Benefit score: 7.2 

Benefit factors: Shared understanding; 
Weight points: 8.0; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Requirements (percent): 20; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Benefit score: 1.6; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Requirements (percent): 100; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Benefit score: 8.0; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Requirements (percent): 100; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Benefit score: 8.0. 

Benefit factors: Responsive and tailorable organization; 
Weight points: 8.0; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Requirements (percent): 20; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Benefit score: 1.6; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Requirements (percent): 100; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Benefit score: 8.0; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Requirements (percent): 100; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Benefit score: 8.0. 

Benefit factors: Shared quality information; 
Weight points: 7.0; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Requirements (percent): 30; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Benefit score: 2.1; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Requirements (percent): 100; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Benefit score: 7.0; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Requirements (percent): 100; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Benefit score: 7.0. 

Benefit factors: Robust networking; 
Weight points: 7.0; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Requirements (percent): 40; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Benefit score: 2.8; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Requirements (percent): 75; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Benefit score: 5.3; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Requirements (percent): 95; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Benefit score: 6.7. 

Benefit factors: Flexible synchronization; 
Weight points: 7.0; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Requirements (percent): 40; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Benefit score: 2.8; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Requirements (percent): 90; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Benefit score: 6.3; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Requirements (percent): 90; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Benefit score: 6.3. 

Benefit factors: Benefit score; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: Benefit score: 19.20; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: Benefit score: 69.75; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: Benefit score: 71.15. 

Benefit factors: Total cost (in 2008 constant dollars); 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: $20,011,111; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: $71,762,643; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: $137,038,661. 

Benefit factors: Cost-benefit ratio; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: $1,042,245; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: $1,028,855; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: $1,926,053. 

Source: DOD. 

[End of table] 

In examining how DOD scored benefits, we noted several concerns. First, 
the benefit score for Alternative 1, Status Quo, is significantly lower 
than the benefit score for the other two alternatives. Alternative 1's 
benefit is 72 percent lower than that of Alternative 2, Reach-back 
Capability, and 73 percent lower than that of Alternative 3, Duplicate 
Systems. Second, only a slight change in the benefit scores would 
change the cost-benefit score rankings of two of the three 
alternatives. For example, if the benefit score for each of the nine 
nonmonetary benefit factors for Alternative 1, Status Quo, were 
increased by as little as 5 percent--a change that, in our opinion, 
falls within the margin of imprecision for a subjective judgment-- 
Alternative 1 would become the preferred option (rather than 
Alternative 2) based on its cost-benefit ratio (see table 3). 

Table 3: Cost-Benefit Analysis with Revised Benefit Score for 
Alternative 1 (2008 constant dollars): 

Benefit score: 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: 19.20; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo, with a 5 percent higher benefit score: 
20.16; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: 69.75; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: 71.15. 

Total cost: 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: $20,011,111; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo, with a 5 percent higher benefit score: 
$20,011,111; Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: $71,762,643; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: $137,038,661. 

Cost-benefit ratio: 
Alternative 1--Status Quo: $1,042,245; 
Alternative 1--Status Quo, with a 5 percent higher benefit score: 
$992,615; 
Alternative 2--Reach-back Capability: $1,028,855; 
Alternative 3--Duplicate Systems: $1,926,053. 

Source: GAO analysis of DOD data. 

[End of table] 

The sensitivity of the benefit scores is important for three reasons. 
First, benefits are predicated on the functional managers' subjective 
estimates of relative importance and fulfillment of requirements. 
Because managerial estimates are not objective measures--like dollars, 
time, or distance--there is a degree of imprecision to the measurement. 
Second, the preferred alternative--Alternative 2, Reach-back 
Capability--was already known to the managers before the benefit 
scoring was conducted. The extent to which this affected managers' 
scoring, coupled with the lack of anonymity in the scoring, cannot be 
determined. Third, the cost-benefit ratio between the preferred 
solution--Alternative 2, Reach-back Capability--and Alternative 1, 
Status Quo, differed by only 1.3 percent. According to OMB guidance, 
[Footnote 12] a sensitivity analysis should have been performed and 
reported to determine the cost-benefit ratio values' sensitivity to the 
uncertainty of benefit scoring and the results of this analysis. There 
is no indication that DOD performed a sensitivity analysis regarding 
either the costs or the benefits; it is not mentioned in DOD's report 
to Congress. In addition, based on the limited cost information in 
DOD's report to Congress, it is unclear how sensitive DOD's cost 
estimates are to different assumptions. 

DOD's Report to Congress Does Not Provide a Detailed Risk Mitigation 
Strategy; Does Not Include All Plans, Costs, or Schedule Estimates; and 
Does Not Clearly Indicate Whether Upgrades Meet Necessary Requirements: 

DOD's report to Congress does not provide a detailed mitigation 
strategy for all of the security and vulnerability risks identified in 
the Air Force's SEA. First, DOD's report to Congress understates the 
security challenges at Peterson AFB. Second, as the SEA itself 
acknowledges, the SEA did not analyze security risks associated with a 
specific key capability at Peterson AFB, and thus the DOD report lacks 
this information. Third, like the SEA, DOD's report does not address 
the full spectrum of threats or hazards associated with Peterson AFB. 
Fourth, DOD only summarizes the SEA recommendations in its report 
rather than presenting a detailed discussion of the actions needed to 
mitigate security vulnerabilities. Moreover, as DOD was still waiting 
for a conceptual design to be submitted by Air Force Space Command that 
would address certain recommendations, its report did not include all 
plans, costs, or schedule estimates for these recommended actions. 
Furthermore, although the missions moving from Cheyenne Mountain have 
been designated as Protection Level-1, DOD's report does not state 
whether all recommended measures will meet the necessary requirements 
and, therefore, whether waivers and compensatory measures are needed to 
begin operations at Peterson AFB. 

DOD's Report Does Not Fully Detail Mitigation Strategies: 

First, DOD's report to Congress understates the security challenges at 
Peterson AFB. According to the Act, DOD's report to Congress must 
include the findings and recommendations of an independent security and 
vulnerability assessment of Peterson AFB and the Secretary of Defense's 
plans for mitigating any security and vulnerability risks identified as 
part of that assessment. DOD's report noted the existence of some 
security issues, but not to the extent as is presented in the SEA. 

Second, the SEA acknowledges that it did not analyze security risks 
associated with a specific key capability that DOD classified. 
Consequently, security risks associated with that capability were not 
included in DOD's report to Congress--even though the SEA noted that 
diverse redundancy with regard to this key capability was needed to 
eliminate or mitigate single points of failure. 

Third, DOD's report, like the SEA, does not address the full spectrum 
of threats or all hazards, such as natural disasters. Our 
aforementioned classified report contains information about the 
specific threats that were excluded from the scope of the Air Force 
Space Command's security assessment. According to the SEA, the 
assessment team considered a wide range of threats that it culled from 
Air Force policy documents, local Air Force Office of Special 
Investigations reports, historical data, and previous studies. The SEA 
states that although protecting soft targets from certain key types of 
attacks would be very difficult and costly, the assessment team would 
have to perform a new assessment to reflect a new threat, should the 
threat change. Our classified report raised questions about how fully 
the SEA addresses certain key threats and all hazards. 

Finally, while DOD's report to Congress appears to address all of the 
recommended security upgrades contained in the noncomprehensively 
scoped SEA, those upgrades and their mitigation strategies are only 
summarized. Moreover, some of the solutions have been submitted as 
unfunded requests. DOD officials told us on May 29, 2008, that when 
operations began at the new integrated command center shortly before 
that date, DOD substituted some alternative measures to mitigate needed 
upgrades that had not been performed. However, we cannot verify whether 
these measures are adequate due to the limited scope of the SEA and the 
parameters of our review. 

DOD's Report Does Not Include All Plans, Costs, or Schedule Estimates; 
and Does Not Clearly Indicate Whether Upgrades Meet Necessary 
Requirements: 

DOD's report to Congress lists security upgrades recommended in the SEA 
that are awaiting final conceptual design. Consequently, DOD's report 
did not include plans, costs, or schedule estimates for these upgrades. 
Additional information provided by NORAD and USNORTHCOM indicates that 
compensatory measures have been performed while awaiting final design 
for these upgrades, and for funding to be secured. DOD recently 
provided us with a copy of the December 2007 Sandia National 
Laboratories study on which these conceptual design recommendations 
were based. However, we have not analyzed the study to determine 
whether all recommended security upgrades are being implemented or 
whether waivers have been approved and compensatory measures put in 
place. Security enhancements have a cumulative effect and, without a 
detailed analysis, it is difficult to evaluate whether the planned 
upgrades identified in DOD's report will achieve the desired level of 
protection. 

Further, it is unclear whether assets moving from Cheyenne Mountain to 
Building 2 at Peterson AFB will be protected in accordance with Air 
Force policy. As mentioned earlier, if NORAD and USNORTHCOM cannot meet 
Protection Level-1 requirements for the integrated command center 
because of resource or funding constraints, then NORAD and USNORTHCOM 
will have to request waivers and develop compensatory measures. 
However, neither DOD's report to Congress nor the SEA stated whether 
all recommended security upgrades would enable Building 2 to meet 
necessary requirements or whether waivers would be needed to begin 
operations. 

Final Plans for Relocation Do Not Take Security Issues into Account: 

As required by the Act, DOD includes in its report a section on its 
final plans for relocating the NORAD Command Center and related 
functions. However, this section consists solely of a configuration 
diagram of the new integrated command center and a time frame for when 
it will commence operations. The section does not include any of the 
security issues DOD identified in either its report or the SEA. 

Conclusions: 

DOD is proceeding with its plans to relocate the NORAD Command Center 
and other functions from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson AFB and, 
according to DOD officials, operations at the combined command center 
had begun by May 29, 2008. However, our review of DOD's report to 
Congress showed that it did not recognize the uncertainty of benefit 
scoring or include a sensitivity analysis, thus rendering its 
comparison of alternatives subject to very different outcomes with only 
slight changes to subjectively estimated benefit scores. Furthermore, 
DOD's report did not include certain key threats, which we identified 
in the classified version of this report, and it understated the 
security issues surrounding the relocation, as detailed in the SEA. 

Recommendations for Executive Action: 

To help mitigate the security and vulnerability risks identified in, 
and incorporate certain key threats excluded from, the Air Force Space 
Command's security assessment, we recommend that the Secretary of 
Defense, through the Joint Chiefs of Staff, direct the Commander of 
NORAD and USNORTHCOM to take the following two actions: 

* Reevaluate the full spectrum of security vulnerabilities associated 
with moving the NORAD Command Center and related functions from 
Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson AFB. 

* Certify that he is fully aware of all the risks associated with 
moving the NORAD Command Center and related functions from Cheyenne 
Mountain to Peterson AFB, and accepts those risks. 

Agency Comments and Our Evaluation: 

In written comments on a draft of this report, DOD disagreed with our 
first recommendation and neither agreed nor disagreed with our second 
recommendation. DOD's comments are reprinted in their entirety in 
enclosure I. 

DOD disagreed with our recommendation that the Commander of NORAD and 
USNORTHCOM reevaluate the full spectrum of security vulnerabilities 
associated with moving the NORAD Command Center and related functions 
from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson AFB. In its comments, DOD stated 
that the SEA focused on threats considered most likely to affect 
Peterson AFB and Building 2 and stated that the Defense Threat 
Reduction Agency will conduct a Balanced Survivability Assessment in 
the fall of 2008 to further refine Headquarters NORAD and USNORTHCOM 
security needs. DOD stated that it views a threat assessment covering 
all possible threats encompassing both Cheyenne Mountain and Building 2 
as unfocused, and that it has prioritized resources according to most 
likely scenarios. However, although the SEA did develop a "threat 
spectrum" that defined a range of potential threats to NORAD and 
USNORTHCOM, DOD could not provide any documented evidence of having 
performed a risk assessment that analyzed the most likely threats to 
Peterson AFB and Building 2 in order to prioritize resources. DOD 
states that should there be a credible threat to Peterson AFB, command 
center functions could be transferred back to Cheyenne Mountain. We 
continue to believe that DOD should document having performed a risk 
assessment that analyzed the most likely threats to Peterson AFB and 
Building 2, along with the basis for its assumed assessment of low 
probability of certain key threats that are identified in the 
classified version of this report. 

DOD neither agreed nor disagreed with our recommendation that the 
Commander of NORAD and USNORTHCOM certify that he is fully aware of all 
the risks associated with moving the NORAD Command Center and related 
functions from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson AFB, and that he accepts 
those risks. DOD stated in its comments that its report to Congress was 
based on a security analysis completed in May 2007. DOD stated that to 
date, NORAD and USNORTHCOM have implemented the measures necessary for 
Building 2 to meet required security levels, and that those mitigation 
items not approved for implementation either were covered in other 
approved actions or have been waived pending implementation. DOD states 
that through the waiver process, the Commander formally accepted the 
outstanding actions and associated risks related to a secure facility. 
DOD recently provided us with copies of three waivers; however, it was 
unclear to us that the Commander had explicitly accepted the risks 
posed by the full spectrum of threats or hazards. Without such added 
insight into the risks accepted by the Commander, we continue to 
believe that our recommendation has merit and that he should certify 
that he accepts those risks. 

Subsequent to DOD's letter containing the comments restated above, DOD 
provided us with another letter on August 29, 2008, containing its 
comments on our final classified report. In its additional comments, 
the department stated that NORAD and USNORTHCOM are in the process of 
implementing GAO's recommendation that the Commander of NORAD and 
USNORTHCOM reevaluate the full spectrum of security vulnerabilities 
associated with moving the NORAD Command Center and related functions 
from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson AFB. Specifically, DOD stated that a 
new Director of Security has been appointed and is leading a Security 
Tiger Team, which has partnered with Sandia National Laboratories to 
evaluate all threats and vulnerabilities to the headquarters. Moreover, 
DOD stated that in concert with other planned vulnerability 
assessments, the Security Tiger Team is recommending actions to 
mitigate vulnerabilities and the Commander is incrementally approving 
changes to the security posture of the headquarters as a result of this 
process. We have not verified or validated the information provided in 
these additional comments. DOD's additional comments are reprinted in 
their entirety in enclosure II. 

We are sending copies of this report to other interested congressional 
parties. We are also sending copies to the Secretary of Defense; the 
Chairman, Joint Chiefs of Staff; the Secretary of the Air Force; and 
the Commanders of NORAD/USNORTHCOM and USSTRATCOM. Copies will be made 
available to others upon request. In addition, this report will be 
available at no charge on our Web site at [hyperlink, 
http://www.gao.gov/]. 

If you or your staff have any questions about this report, please 
contact me at (202) 512-5431 or [email protected]. Contact points for 
our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may be found 
on the last page of this report. GAO staff who made key contributions 
to this report are listed in enclosure III. 

Signed by: 

Davi M. D'Agostino:
Director:
Defense Capabilities and Management: 

Enclosures - 3: 

List of Committees: 

The Honorable Carl Levin:
Chairman:
The Honorable John McCain:
Ranking Member:
Committee on Armed Services:
United States Senate: 

The Honorable Ike Skelton:
Chairman:
The Honorable Duncan L. Hunter:
Ranking Member:
Committee on Armed Services:
House of Representatives: 

Enclosure I: Comments from the Department of Defense: 

Note: Page numbers in the draft report may differ from those in the 
final report. 

Unclassified: 

GAO Report - Dated June 3, 2008: 
GAO Code 351199/GA0-08-807C: 

"Defense Infrastructure: NORAD and USNORTHCOM Need to Reevaluate the 
Full Spectrum of Vulnerabilities Associated with Moving the NORAD 
Command Center from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson Air Force Base, and 
to Acknowledge Acceptance of the Risks" (U): 

Cleared: For Open Publication: 

July 11, 2008: 

Office of Security Review, Department of Defense: 

Unclassified Department Of Defense Comments To The Recommendations (U): 

(U) Recommendation 1: The GAO recommends that the Secretary of Defense, 
through the Joint Chiefs of Staff, direct the CDR of North American 
Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and United States Northern Command 
(USNORTHCOM) to reevaluate the full spectrum of security 
vulnerabilities associated with moving the NORAD Command Center and 
related functions from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson Air Force Base, 
(Page 15/GAO Draft Report) 

(U) DOD Response: DOD does not concur. The Security Effectiveness 
Analysis (SEA) focused on threats considered most likely to impact 
Peterson Air Force Base and Building 2. In addition, the Defense Threat 
Reduction Agency will conduct a Balanced Survivability Assessment in 
the fall of 2008, to include Networks and Information Integration to 
further refine HQ NORAD and USNORTHCOM security needs. 'The concept 
behind preparing for the most likely scenarios is to prioritize 
resources accordingly. We believe we have done this. The command is 
also still utilizing Cheyenne Mountain as an alternate command center 
and can resume full capability of all functions. 

(U) We acknowledge that there are threats from which Cheyenne Mountain 
would provide better protection. However, we consider the probability 
of this type of risk to be low and outweighed by the benefits provided 
by the combined Command Center. 

(U) Recommendation 2: The GAO recommends that the Secretary of Defense, 
through the Joint Chiefs of Staff, direct the CDR of North American 
Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and United States Northern Command 
(USNORTHCOM) to certify that he is fully aware of all the risks 
associated with moving the NORAD Command Center and related functions 
from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson Air Force Base, and accepts those 
risks. (Page 15/GAO Draft Report) 

(U) DOD Response: Our report to Congress in March 2008 was based on a 
security analysis completed in May 2007. Since the completion of the 
security analysis report, the Commander has taken appropriate and 
additional steps in response to the analyses completed. The Commander 
has formally accepted the outstanding actions and associated risks 
related to a PL-1 facility, and understands that risk is an inherit 
element in command and acknowledges that risk. 

Enclosure (1) 

[End of enclosure] 

Enclosure II: Additional Comments from the Department of Defense on the 
Final Classified Report: 

Note: Page numbers in the draft report may differ from those in the 
final report. 

North American Aerospace Defense Command And United States Northern 
Command: 

Maj Gen John H. Bordelon, USAF: 
Chief of Staff, NORAD and USNORTHCOM: 
250 Vandenberg St., Ste 3804: 
Peterson AFB CO 80914-3804: 

August 29, 2008: 

Ms. Davi M. D'Agostino: 
Director, Defense Capabilities and Management: 
U.S. Government Accountability Office: 
441 G Street, N.W. 
Washington, D.C. 20548: 

Dear Ms. D'Agostino: 

This is the Department of Defense (DoD) response to the GAO final 
report, 'Defense Infrastructure: NORAD and USNORTHCOM Need to 
Reevaluate the Full Spectrum of Vulnerabilities Associated with Moving 
the NORAD Command Center from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson Air Force 
Base, and to Acknowledge Acceptance of the Risks', July 1, 2008 (GAO 
Code 351199/GAO-08-807RC). We acknowledge receipt of this report and 
also acknowledge that our comments are included in the final report. 

General Renuart has reviewed and concurs with the Department's comments 
and we have included them as an attachment to this letter. Work 
continues on the numerous security initiatives referred to in our 
previous response, and the Commander of North American Aerospace 
Defense Command and US Northern Command has provided detailed updates 
and responses, in person, to Members of the House Armed Services 
Committee. 

Our point of contact is Commander Joel Paine, USN at 
[email protected] or [email protected]. 

Sincerely, 

Signed by: 

John H. Bordelon: 
Major General, USAF: 

Attachment: 
Department of Defense Comments to GAO Report (GAO code 351199/GA0-08-
807RC): 

GAO Report - Dated JULY 1, 2008: 
GAO Code 351199/GAO-08-807RC: 

"Defense Infrastructure: NORAD and USNORTHCOM Need to Reevaluate the 
Full Spectrum of Vulnerabilities Associated with Moving the NORAD 
Command Center from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson Air Force Base, and 
to Acknowledge Acceptance of the Risks" (U): 

Department Of Defense Comments To The Recommendations (U): 

Recommendation 1: The GAO recommends that the Secretary of Defense, 
through the Joint Chiefs of Staff, direct the Commander of North 
American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and United States Northern 
Command (USNORTHCOM0 to reevaluate the full spectrum of security 
vulnerabilities associated with moving the NORAD Command Center and 
related functions from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson Air Force Base. 
(Page 15/GAO Draft Report) 

DOD Response: NORAD and USNORTHCOM are in the process of accomplishing 
this task. A new Director of Security has been appointed (at the 
Colonel level) and is leading a Security Tiger Team to evaluate all 
threats and vulnerabilities to the headquarters. The Tiger Team has 
partnered with Sandia Labs in this process. In addition, we have 
enlisted the support of the JSIVA team (8-12 Sep 2008) to evaluate our 
methods to address identified vulnerabilities. The DTRA-led Balanced 
Survivability Assessment team started an assessment of our command 
centers in August 2008, with the physical evaluation scheduled to occur 
29 Sep to 10 Oct 2008. In concert with our partners, the Security Tiger 
Team is recommending actions to mitigate vulnerabilities and the 
Commander is incrementally approving prudent changes to the security 
posture of our headquarters as a result of this process. 

Recommendation 2: The GAO recommends that the Secretary of Defense, 
through the Joint Chiefs of Staff, direct the Commander of North 
American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD) and United States Northern 
Command (USNORTHCOM) to certify that he is fully aware of all the risks 
associated with moving the NORAD Command Center and related functions 
from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson Air Force Base, and accepts those 
risks. (Page 15/GAO Draft Report) 

DOD Response: Our report to Congress in March 2008 was based on a 
security analysis completed in May 2007. Since the completion of the 
security analysis report, the Commander has taken appropriate and 
additional steps in response to the analyses completed. The Commander 
has formally accepted the outstanding actions and associated risks 
related to a PL-1 facility, and understands that risk is an inherent 
element in command and acknowledges that risk. 

[End of section] 

Enclosure III: GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments: 

GAO Contact: 

Davi M. D'Agostino, (202) 512-5431 or [email protected]: 

Acknowledgments: 

In addition to the contact named above, Mark A. Pross, Assistant 
Director; Gregory A. Marchand; Charles W. Perdue; Marc J. Schwartz; 
Kimberly C. Seay; and Cheryl A. Weissman made key contributions to this 
report. 

[End of section] 

Footnotes: 

[1] GAO, Defense Infrastructure: Full Costs and Security Implications 
of Cheyenne Mountain Realignment Have Not Been Determined, [hyperlink, 
http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-803R] (Washington, D.C.: May 
21, 2007). 

[2] Pub. L. No. 110-181, ï¿½ 361 (2008). 

[3] NORAD/USNORTHCOM, Report to Congress on Relocation of North 
American Aerospace Defense Command Center (Colorado Springs, Colo.: 
January 2008). 

[4] A fourth alternative--combine the command center at Cheyenne 
Mountain--was deemed by DOD as infeasible. 

[5] Air Force Space Command, Systems Effectiveness Assessment for 
Headquarters North American Aerospace Defense Command and United States 
Northern Command, Peterson Air Force Base (Colorado Springs, Colo.: 
Oct. 11, 2007). 

[6] GAO, Defense Infrastructure: NORAD and USNORTHCOM Need to 
Reevaluate the Full Spectrum of Vulnerabilities Associated with Moving 
the NORAD Command Center from Cheyenne Mountain to Peterson Air Force 
Base, and to Acknowledge Acceptance of the Risks (Washington, D.C.: 
July 1, 2008). 

[7] Air Force Instruction 31-101, The Air Force Installation Security 
Program, ï¿½ 6.3.2 (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 1, 2003). 

[8] U.S. Northern Command, The NORAD-USNORTHCOM Transformation Analysis 
Report (Colorado Springs, Colo.: July 2006). 

[9] OMB Circular A-94, Guidelines and Discount Rates for Benefit-Cost 
Analysis of Federal Programs (Washington, D.C.: Oct. 29, 1992). 

[10] Present value is taking into account the time value of money in 
calculating the value of future costs. 

[11] The discount rate is the interest rate used in present value 
calculations. 

[12] OMB Circular A-94. 

[End of section] 

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