Yucca Mountain Project: Information on Estimated Costs to Respond
to Employee E-Mails That Raised Questions about Quality Assurance
(19-JAN-07, GAO-07-297R).					 
                                                                 
In March 2005, the Department of Energy (DOE) reported the	 
discovery of a series of e-mail messages written in the late	 
1990s by U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) employees working under a 
contract with DOE on the Yucca Mountain Project. These e-mails	 
alerted DOE that USGS workers may have falsified records for	 
scientific work on the project and may have been disdainful of	 
the project's quality assurance program and its requirements. In 
March 2006, we reported that DOE was engaged in a detailed review
of these and other project e-mails and was reworking technical	 
documents to ensure the credibility of the USGS's scientific	 
analyses, particularly its conclusions on water infiltration. At 
Congress' request, we undertook follow-on work to determine the  
estimated costs incurred in DOE's response, which also included  
additional management and quality assurance training for project 
personnel. We briefed Congressional staff on October 23, 2006, on
the results of this work. As Congress requested, we also briefed 
Congressional staff on the estimated cost of completing the Yucca
Mountain Project, based on DOE's new schedule for receiving a	 
license and opening the nuclear waste repository by 2017.	 
-------------------------Indexing Terms------------------------- 
REPORTNUM:   GAO-07-297R					        
    ACCNO:   A65025						        
  TITLE:     Yucca Mountain Project: Information on Estimated Costs to
Respond to Employee E-Mails That Raised Questions about Quality  
Assurance							 
     DATE:   01/19/2007 
  SUBJECT:   Cost analysis					 
	     Criminal investigation				 
	     Data collection					 
	     Data integrity					 
	     E-mail						 
	     Employee training					 
	     Employees						 
	     Fraud						 
	     Investigations by federal agencies 		 
	     Program evaluation 				 
	     Quality assurance					 
	     Cost estimates					 
	     DOE Yucca Mountain Project (NV)			 

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GAO-07-297R

   

     * [1]Enclosure I.pdf

          * [2]Yucca Mountain Project: Information on Project Costs
          * [3]BackgroundDOE leads federal effort to assess and build a
            nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain in Nevada
          * [4]Background (cont.) USGS scientists' e-mails raised concerns
            about compliance with quality assurance requirements
          * [5]Background (cont.)USGS scientists' e-mails raised concerns
            about compliance with quality assurance requirements
          * [6]Objectives
          * [7]Scope and MethodologyRelied on interviews, reports, agency
            cost estimates
          * [8]Scope and Methodology (cont.)We relied on interviews, reports,
            agency cost estimates
          * [9]Limitations
          * [10]Limitations (cont.)
          * [11]Summary
          * [12]Summary (cont.)
          * [13]Review of E-mailsIn total, reviews and investigations
            estimated to have cost about $4.2 million (FY 2005-2006)
          * [14]Review of E-mailsAgency review processes estimated to have
            cost about $2.7 million
          * [15]Review of E-mailsDOE conducted three types of e-mail reviews
          * [16]Review of E-mailsDOE's three types of e-mail reviews examined
            database of 14 million e-mails and led to seven new issues
          * [17]Review of E-mailsIndependent reviews estimated to have cost
            about $530,000
          * [18]Review of E-mailsDOE-IG report on e-mail review (DOE/IG-0708)
            recommended broader e-mail review and need to address issues ra
          * [19]Review of E-mailsCriminal investigation and personnel actions
            estimated to have cost about $820,000
          * [20]Scientific ReworkScientific rework estimated to cost over $16
            million (FY 2005-2006), with an additional $5.1 million planned
          * [21]Scientific ReworkFour broad categories of scientific rework
            span fiscal years 2005-2006, additional work expected in fiscal y
          * [22]Scientific ReworkReplacing original infiltration model
            estimated to cost about $10.7 million (FY 2005-2006) with another
            $2.2
          * [23]Scientific ReworkAssessing and revising other models
            estimated to cost about $2.5 million (FY 2005-2006), with at
            least $2.9
          * [24]Scientific Rework Independent review and oversight estimated
            to cost about $2.5 million (FY 2005-2006)
          * [25]Scientific ReworkRework of original USGS infiltration model
            cost about $420,000 (FY 2005-2006)
          * [26]Additional Training CostsDOE and USGS spent about $340,000
            (FY 2005-2006)
          * [27]Total Estimated Cost of ProjectDOE's best current estimate to
            complete Yucca Mountain with a 2017 opening date is about $23

     * [28]PDF6-Ordering Information.pdf

          * [29]Order by Mail or Phone

January 19, 2007

The Honorable Jon C. Porter

House of Representatives

Subject: Yucca Mountain Project: Information on Estimated Costs to Respond
to Employee E-mails That Raised Questions about Quality Assurance

Dear Mr. Porter:

In March 2005, the Department of Energy (DOE) reported the discovery of a
series of e-mail messages written in the late 1990s by U.S. Geological
Survey (USGS) employees working under a contract with DOE on the Yucca
Mountain Project. These e-mails alerted DOE that USGS workers may have
falsified records for scientific work on the project and may have been
disdainful of the project's quality assurance program and its
requirements. In March 2006, we reported that DOE was engaged in a
detailed review of these and other project e-mails and was reworking
technical documents to ensure the credibility of the USGS's scientific
analyses, particularly its conclusions on water infiltration.1 At your
request, we undertook follow-on work to determine the estimated costs
incurred in DOE's response, which also included additional management and
quality assurance training for project personnel. We briefed you and your
staff on October 23, 2006, on the results of this work. As you requested,
we also briefed you and your staff on the estimated cost of completing the
Yucca Mountain Project, based on DOE's new schedule for receiving a
license and opening the nuclear waste repository by 2017. Enclosure I
provides slides that we used in our briefing to you and your staff.

To respond to your request, we collected data provided by DOE; USGS; the
Nuclear Regulatory Commission; the DOE and the Department of the Interior
(DOI) offices of the Inspector General, both of whom have examined aspects
of these matters; as well as other DOI offices, the Nuclear Waste
Technical Review Board, and various contractors working on the Yucca
Mountain Project. We also conducted interviews with staff from these
organizations. Given the time constraints, we did not independently verify
the cost data provided to us. We conducted this work from September 2006
through October 2006 in accordance with generally accepted government
auditing standards.

1GAO, Yucca Mountain: Quality Assurance at DOE's Planned Nuclear Waste
Repository Needs Increased Management Attention, GAO-06-313, (Washington,
D.C.: Mar. 17, 2006).

With respect to the review of project e-mail and other relevant documents
to determine the extent and nature of problems similar to those suggested
by the USGS e-mails, the agencies estimated that their efforts cost nearly
$4.2 million. The scientific rework related to the USGS water infiltration
analysis cost an estimated $16 million, while additional management and
quality assurance training for project personnel cost about $340,000. All
three estimates were for expenditures in fiscal years 2005 and 2006. In
fiscal year 2007, DOE plans to spend another $5.1 million on scientific
rework. DOE's preliminary cost estimate to complete and open the
repository to begin receiving wastes by 2017 is about $23 billion
(expressed in fiscal year 2006 dollars), $12.1 billion of which was spent
from fiscal year 1983 through fiscal year 2005. DOE expects to revise its
cost estimate for completing the project in 2007.

We provided DOE with a draft of this report for review and comments. In
its written response, DOE agreed with our overall cost numbers and stated
that it expects to provide updated cost estimates for overall program
costs in 2007. (See encl. II.) DOE also provided technical comments, which
we incorporated as appropriate.

                                   - - - - -

As arranged with your office, unless you publicly announce its contents
earlier, we plan no further distribution of this report until 30 days from
the report date. At that time, we will send copies of this report to
interested congressional committees and members, the Secretary of Energy,
the Secretary of the Interior, and other interested parties. We will also
make copies available to others on request. In addition, this report will
be available at no charge on the GAO Web site at http://www.gao.gov.

If you or your staff have any questions concerning this report, please
contact me at (202) 512-3841 or by e-mail at [email protected]. Contact
points for our Offices of Congressional Relations and Public Affairs may
be found on the last page of this report. Key contributors to this report
include Richard Cheston, Raymond Smith, Jon Ludwigson, Lee Carroll, and
Kris Massey.

Sincerely yours,

Jim Wells
Director, Natural Resources and Environment

Enclosures

Enclosure I

              Yucca Mountain Project: Information on Project Costs

Briefing to the Chairman of the Federal Workforce and Agency Organization
Subcommittee, the Committee on Government Reform, U.S. House of Representatives

                                October 23, 2006



Background

DOE leads federal effort to assess and build a nuclear waste
repository at Yucca Mountain in Nevada

In 1982, the Congress passed the Nuclear Waste Policy Act and determined
that the United States should build a national nuclear waste repository

In 2002, the Congress approved Yucca Mountain, Nevada as the site for the
repository

Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for assessing the safety and
performance of the future repository

           oDOE has been conducting scientific studies of the long-term
           storage of nuclear waste, such as how water moves through the
           soil, rock, and other layers of the mountain

DOE work at Yucca Mountain uses contractors including

           oBechtel SAIC Company (BSC) and
           oU.S. Geological Survey (USGS)

DOE is required to obtain a license from the Nuclear Regulatory Commission
(NRC) before starting construction and operating the repository

           oDOE is developing the license application, including supporting
           scientific assessments of long-term repository safety
           oNRC is to evaluate the license application and DOE must meet
           NRCstandards
           oNuclear Waste Technical Review Board (NWTRB) reviews scientific
           basis of repository

USGS scientists' e-mails raised concerns about compliance with
quality assurance requirements

USGS scientists' e-mails indicated that they may not have adhered to
quality assurance requirements

           oDOE's announcement in March 2005 of the discovery of e-mails from
           USGS personnel involved in scientific work developing the water
           infiltration model for the Yucca Mountain Project (YMP) revealed
           that these employees may not have complied with quality assurance
           requirements, including thepotential falsification of data
           oAgencies reviewed employee e-mails to determine extent and nature
           of the potential problems

E-mails raised questions about quality assurance associated with the USGS
water infiltration model

           oInfiltration model simulates the top layer of the mountain and
           how water moves through that layer
           oInfiltration model plays an important role in scientific analysis
           of how water moves to and through other layers of the mountain
           (which are simulated using other models), including waste storage
           tunnels
           oWater that reaches the storage areas may affect the integrity
           ofwaste packages

USGS scientists' e-mails raised concerns about compliance with
quality assurance requirements

E-mails resulted in investigations and scientific rework

           oDOE initiated a projectwidereview of e-mails to determine if the
           attitudes and behaviors seen in certain USGS employees were seen
           elsewhere in the project
           oDOE is overseeing the process of reperformingthe technical work
           and preparing supporting scientific documentation associated with
           the infiltration rate estimates
           oDOE required staff associated with the YMP to complete training
           on proper use and handling of e-mails

DOE has delayed its application to the NRC for licensing the Yucca
Mountain nuclear waste repository and announced that the projected best
available opening date is now expected to be 2017

Objectives

           1.Identify the estimated cost of various reviews resulting from
           the discovery of the USGS emails
           2.Identify the estimated cost of reworking scientific research,
           data, and associated technical documents to ensure that
           conclusions about water infiltration are correct and supportable
           3.Identify the cost of additional management and quality
           assurancetraining for project personnel resulting from the
           discovery of the e-mails
           4.Identify the estimated total cost to complete the Yucca
           Mountainrepository based on DOE's new licensing schedule and
           revised 2017 opening date

Relied on interviews, reports, agency cost estimates

Relied primarily on interviews and review of reports, testimonies, and
other documents identified in interviews

Interviews included:

           oSenior YMP officials
           oSenior NRC officials responsible for monitoring the license
           application process
           oSenior officials from DOE and Department of the Interior (DOI)
           Inspectors General
           oPrivate contractors that undertook substantial work including,
           Bechtel SAIC Corporation (BSC) and BoozAllen Hamilton, Inc. (BAH)

We relied on interviews, reports, agency cost estimates

Reviewed documents including:

           oReports from YMP
           oReports from Inspectors General
           oPrior GAO reports

Reviewed cost estimates provided by:

           oDOE (Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management, Office of
           the Inspector General)
           oDOI (Office of the Inspector General, USGS, and other offices)
           oNRC
           oPrivate contractors working on the YMP

Work completed September through October 2006 according to generally
accepted government auditing standards

Limitations

Because of time constraints

           oWe relied on DOE, DOI, USGS, NRC, and contractor estimates of
           cost and our review of documents they identified during interviews
           oWe did not verify agencies' cost estimates
           oIn most cases, agencies estimated time and costs incurred
           oLimited data on actual time and expense
           oNo specific accounting or budget codes for some work
           oEstimates may reflect work that otherwise would have occurred
           oWe had limited opportunity to independently evaluate whether
           other activities should be included in the cost estimates 
           oWe requested that the agencies provide estimates of fully
           burdened costs (e.g., including salaries, benefits, and overhead),
           but we did not evaluate or verify their methodologies
           oNot certain whether agencies' estimates reflected department
           overhead (e.g., recruitment), imputed costs, or indirect costs
           (e.g., rent and utilities)
           oNot all agencies were willing or able to provide estimates for
           all activities
           oDepartment of Justice (DOJ), Federal Bureau of Investigation, and
           USGS
           oWe did not evaluate methodology used for selecting and reviewing
           e-mails
           oWe did not evaluate decisions, or basis for, scientific rework

Summary

Review of e-mail and other documents to determine extent and nature of
problem cost nearly $4.2 million (fiscal years 2005-2006)

Scientific rework related to USGS infiltration model cost about $16
million (fiscal years 2005-2006)

Training and other activities to improve the focus on quality assurance
cost about $340,000 (fiscal years 2005-2006)

Preliminary DOE estimate to meet new licensing schedule and revised
opening in 2017 is about $23 billion (fiscal year 2006 dollars)

           o$12 billion spent from fiscal years 1983 to 2005
           o$11 billion estimated for fiscal years 2006 to 2017
           oDOE expects to provide updated estimates in fiscal year 2007

Review of E-mails

In total, reviews and investigations estimated to have cost about $4.2
million (FY 2005-2006)

Agencies' review of e-mail and other documentation cost about $2.7 million

Criminal investigation and associated personnel actions cost about
$820,000

Independent review of agencies' efforts cost about $530,000

Other efforts, such as responses to media inquiries, cost about $100,000

Source: GAO analysis of estimates provided by DOE, DOI, USGS andNRC

Criminal and

personnel

actions

                               DOE review of CRs

Agency

reviews

                              DOE review of e-mail

                        DOE review of employee concerns

Source: GAO analysis of information provided by DOE, DOI, USGS and NRC

                             DOE Inspector General

                            NRC observation/tracking

*Issuance of report has been extended to February 2007

[30]Text Box: Review of E-mailsThree categories of actions spanned 2005
through 2007

Agency review processes estimated to have cost about $2.7 million

DOE conducted three types of e-mail reviews

E-mail review included three broad types of reviews

           oEvaluated e-mails identified as "relevant" to license application
           process
           oEvaluated e-mails sent by persons in key positions not identified
           as relevant ("nonrelevant")
           oEvaluated all e-mails using statistical sampling

959,102 relevant e-mails reviewed two ways

           oRandomly sampled and physically read and reviewed
           oKeyword search used to identify e-mail content critical of
           quality assurance and a random sample of those selected for review

About 13 million nonrelevante-mails reviewed two ways

           o32 of 237 key staff selected and all nonrelevante-mails randomly
           sampled and reviewed
           oRandom sample of all nonrelevante-mails sent by all 237 key staff
           reviewed

Population of about 14 million e-mails randomly sampled and reviewed

DOE's three types of e-mail reviews examined database of 14 million

e-mails and led to seven new issues

Totals

                                     About

                                   1 million

Review of relevant e-mails

Source: GAO analysis of estimates provided by DOE

[31]Text Box: 959,102 Identified as relevant

Independent reviews estimated to have cost about $530,000

Congressional review

           oDOE and contractors prepared response to congressional request
           for documents at a cost of about $414,000

DOE-IG review

           oDOE-IG evaluated the adequacy of DOE's process for reviewing
           e-mails to identify conditions adverse to quality at a cost of
           about $83,000

NRC review

           oNRC evaluated the potential impact of e-mail reviews on NRC
           review activities at a cost of about $35,000

DOE-IG report on e-mail review (DOE/IG-0708) recommended

broader e-mail review and need to address issues raised in e-mails

Effort

           oInterviewed YMP staff and contractors
           oReviewed project documentation
           oIndependently reviewed e-mails

Found

           oThe Archival E-mail Review Team identified and entered no
           conditions adverse toquality into the project Corrective Action
           Program as required during the process of identifying e-mails as
           relevant for inclusion in the Licensing Support Network
           oDOE-IG review uncovered e-mails potentially adverse to quality
           that had not been identified by prior reviews

Recommended

           oExpand review of e-mails to include all e-mails
           oEnsure that current and future e-mails potentially adverse to
           quality are addressed
           oEnsure YMP personnel are instructed in the appropriate
           application of the Corrective Action Program

Cost

           o5 field staff at 1,196 staff hours
           o$82,907 estimated cost

Scientific Rework

Four broad categories of scientific rework span fiscal years 2005-

2006, additional work expected in fiscal year 2007

       Sensitivity analysis of infiltration-dependent models (OCRWM/SNL)

                               USGS model review

                               INL evaluation of

                        USGS infiltration model and data

                 Modification of infiltration-dependent models

                                     (SNL)

                  Internal review of USGS model (USGS funded)

Rework

USGS model

                            BSC review of USGS data

                        Replace USGS infiltration model

                                 (SNL and BSC)

Source: GAO analysis of estimates provided by DOE, BSC, NWTRB, NRC, and
USGS

Independent review and oversight estimated to cost about $2.5 million

(FY 2005-2006)

INL review of software cost about $2.2 million

NRC observation and monitoring cost about $236,400

NWTRB monitoring and evaluation cost about $15,000

NWTRB and the NRC expect to spend additional money in fiscal year 2007 (no
estimate)

Additional Training Costs

DOE and USGS spent about $340,000 (FY 2005-2006)

Total Estimated Cost of Project

DOE's best current estimate to complete Yucca Mountain

with a 2017 opening date is about $23 billion (FY 2006 dollars)

Historical cost, FY 1983-2005: $12.1 billion (in FY 2006 dollars)

Estimated future cost, FY 2006-2017: $11.2 billion (in FY 2006 dollars)

DOE plans to release updated estimates in 2007

           oCash flow analysis expected mid-to-late November 2006
           oIntegrated project plan expected early 2007
           oLife-cycle cost analysis expected early to mid-2007

Source: GAO analysis of data and estimates provided by DOE

Enclosure II

Comments from the Department of Energy

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