2010 Census: Preparations for the 2010 Census Underway, but Continued Oversight and Risk Management Are Critical

2010 Census: Preparations for the 2010 Census Underway, but
Continued Oversight and Risk Management Are Critical (17-JUL-07,
GAO-07-1106T).

The decennial census is a Constitutionally-mandated activity that
produces critical data used to apportion congressional seats,
redraw congressional districts, and allocate billions of dollars
in federal assistance. The Census Bureau (Bureau) estimates the
2010 Census will cost $11.3 billion, making it the most expensive
in the nation's history after adjusting for inflation. This
testimony, based primarily on GAO's issued reports and
preliminary observations from our ongoing work, discusses the
extent to which the Bureau has (1) developed a comprehensive
project plan with the most current cost data; (2) incorporated
lessons learned from Dress Rehearsal activities; (3) managed
automation and technology for the reengineered census; and (4)
planned for an accurate census in areas affected by Hurricanes
Katrina and Rita.
-------------------------Indexing Terms-------------------------
REPORTNUM: GAO-07-1106T
ACCNO: A72828
TITLE: 2010 Census: Preparations for the 2010 Census Underway,
but Continued Oversight and Risk Management Are Critical
DATE: 07/17/2007
SUBJECT: Benchmark testing
Census
Cost analysis
Data collection
Hurricane Katrina
Impacted areas
Information technology
Lessons learned
Population statistics
Risk management
Software verification and validation
Strategic planning
Testing
Mailing lists

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GAO-07-1106T

* [1]Background
* [2]2010 Comprehensive Project Plan with Updated Cost Informatio
* [3]2008 Dress Rehearsal Experience Points to Further Testing of
* [4]Bureau's Plans for Greater Use of Automation and Technology
* [5]Bureau Is Designing Decennial Activities in the Geographic A
* [6]GAO's Mission
* [7]Obtaining Copies of GAO Reports and Testimony

* [8]Order by Mail or Phone

* [9]To Report Fraud, Waste, and Abuse in Federal Programs
* [10]Congressional Relations
* [11]Public Affairs

Testimony

Before the Subcommittee on Federal Financial Management, Government
Information, Federal Services, and International Security, Committee on
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate

United States Government Accountability Office

GAO

For Release on Delivery Expected at 2:30 p.m. EDT

Tuesday, July 17, 2007

2010 CENSUS

Preparations for the 2010 Census Underway, but Continued Oversight and
Risk Management Are Critical

Statement of Mathew J. Scire, Director,
Strategic Issues

and

David A. Powner, Director,
Information Technology

GAO-07-1106T

Mr. Chairman, Mr. Coburn, Members of the Subcommittee:

Thank you for the opportunity to be here today to discuss the status of
the Census Bureau's (Bureau) preparations for the 2010 Census. Our
testimony today is based on issued and ongoing work and addresses the
Bureau's efforts to prepare for the next decennial census by (1) having a
strategic plan in place to help control costs; (2) incorporating lessons
learned from the 2008 Dress Rehearsal operation underway, including the
use of handheld computing devices; (3) managing automation and technology
that are an integral part of the reengineered census; and (4) planning how
to ensure an accurate population count in areas affected by Hurricanes
Katrina and Rita.

As you know, Mr. Chairman, the decennial census is a critical national
effort mandated by the Constitution. Census data are used to apportion
seats in the Congress, redraw congressional districts, allocate billions
of dollars in federal assistance to state and local governments, and for
numerous other public and private sector purposes. In addition, the census
is a complicated undertaking and a substantial investment, requiring
careful planning, risk management, and oversight to ensure its ultimate
success. The Bureau estimates the 2010 Census will cost $11.5 billion over
its life cycle, making it the most expensive census in our country's
history, even after adjusting for inflation. For example, the average cost
per housing unit for 2010 is expected to increase by about 29 percent from
2000 levels (from $56 per housing unit to $72 per housing unit in 2000
inflation-adjusted dollars). Since Census 2000, we have been examining how
the Bureau is preparing for the 2010 Census, including incorporating
lessons learned from the 2000 Census into its planning for the 2010
decennial. Given the importance of a successful enumeration and the
complexities of enumerating a hard-to-count population in a more
technology-dependent census, our message remains that the risks associated
with the decennial must be closely monitored, evaluated, and managed. We
have long supported an approach to oversight that is timely, rigorous,
constructive, and holds the Bureau accountable to help ensure that
accurate results are delivered within projected costs.

Today's hearing is particularly timely, as the Bureau has begun 2008 Dress
Rehearsal activities in California and North Carolina. Census Day for the
Dress Rehearsal is April 1, 2008. In concept, a Dress Rehearsal should be
a dry run of the full enumeration planned for 2010, and include the
testing of operations and procedures planned for the decennial census
under as close to census-like procedures as possible. If properly
executed, the Dress Rehearsal should serve as a tool to help the Bureau
identify and mitigate risk associated with the 2010 Census.

Thus, the Bureau is at an important point in planning and conducting the
2010 Census, as it begins the first operations for 2010 while continuing
its dry run of other operations. Sound risk management is important to a
successful census because many risks are interrelated, and a shortcoming
in one operation could cause other operations to spiral downward. We would
like to highlight several areas of risk that the Bureau needs to manage to
ensure its success. For example:

o To provide the Congress, stakeholders, and others a clear
picture of the status of the 2010 Census operations and the likely
cost, the Bureau needs to complete its 2010 Census comprehensive
project plan and update the 2010 life-cycle cost estimate to
reflect current information from testing.
o During recent Dress Rehearsal operations, we observed technical
problems with the handheld mobile computers the Bureau expects to
use for the 2010 Census. If the device does not function as
expected or needed, little time will be left for the Bureau to
take corrective action. Further, in the first operation of the
Dress Rehearsal--the Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA)--the
Bureau made some improvements over the Census 2000 program;
however, it did not fully test certain tools, such as
computer-based training and other new software, with potential
users. It will be important for the Bureau to complete such
software testing.
o Greater reliance on contractor-developed automation and
technology for the 2010 Census requires the Bureau to focus on
sound acquisition and management of these key investments.
o Finally, because the changing housing stock may affect the
Bureau's ability to effectively conduct address canvassing and
other operations in the Gulf Coast region, it is important for the
Bureau to complete its planning for addressing the challenges that
the Bureau's temporary field staff would likely face in such
hurricane-affected geographic areas.

Our remarks today are based primarily on reports that GAO issued
from 2002 through June 2007 on the planning and development of the
2010 Census, as well as observations from our ongoing work on the
performance of the handheld mobile computing devices and the
Bureau's acquisition of monitoring of key automation and
technology investments. (Please see Related GAO Products page for
a list of relevant reports.) In addition to the Dress Rehearsal,
the Bureau conducted several field tests for its reengineered 2010
Census--including deployment of earlier prototypes of handheld
mobile computing devices. For the 2004 field test, we visited
Queens, New York, and several counties in rural south-central
Georgia. We visited the Texas and South Dakota test sites during
the Bureau's 2006 field test. During these visits we observed
several operations including address canvassing and the
nonresponse follow-up operation. During the autumn of 2006, we
observed the Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) phase of the
2008 Dress Rehearsal in sites located in North Carolina and
California. In January 2007, we visited areas in Louisiana,
Mississippi, and Texas affected by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita,
and in June 2007 we observed the Bureau's address canvassing
operation using the handheld devices at both of the Dress
Rehearsal sites. In regard to technology acquisition and
contracts, we analyzed current project and acquisition documents,
including earned value management data, and we interviewed Bureau
officials and contractors. To determine the status of risks and
whether the Bureau is adequately managing risks, we identified
sound IT risk management processes from those developed by the
Software Engineering Institute and compared them to the Bureau's
risk management practices for the selected projects. The areas
examined included risk preparation, risk identification and
analyses, and risk mitigation. We conducted our work in accordance
with generally accepted government auditing standards.

Background

The decennial census is the nation's largest, most complex survey.
To conduct its decennial activities, the Bureau recruits, hires,
and trains over half a million field staff based out of local
census offices nationwide, temporarily making it one of the
nation's largest employers. The first operation for the 2010
Census has already begun. Starting in January 2007, the Bureau
notified state and local governments that it would seek their help
in developing a complete address file through the Bureau's LUCA
program. Address canvassing--a field operation to build a complete
and accurate address list in which census field workers go door to
door verifying and correcting addresses for all households and
street features contained on decennial maps--will begin in April
2009. One year later, the Bureau will mail census questionnaires
to the majority of the population in anticipation of Census Day,
April 1, 2010. Those households that do not return their
questionnaire will be contacted by census field workers during the
nonresponse follow-up operation to determine the number of people
living in the housing unit on Census Day, among other information.

In addition to these operations, the Bureau conducts other
operations, including gathering data from residents in group
quarters such as prisons or military bases. The Bureau also
employs different enumeration methods in certain settings, such as
remote Alaska enumeration, in which people living in inaccessible
communities must be contacted in January 2010 in anticipation of
the spring thaw, which makes travel difficult, or
update/enumerate, a data collection method involving personal
interviews that is used in communities where many housing units
may not have typical house number-street name mailing addresses.

The decennial census is conducted against a backdrop of immutable
deadlines. The census's elaborate chain of interrelated pre- and
post-Census Day activities is predicated upon those dates. To meet
these mandated reporting requirements, census activities must
occur at specific times and in the proper sequence. The Secretary
of Commerce is legally required to (1) conduct the census on April
1 of the decennial year, (2) report the state population counts to
the President for purposes of congressional apportionment by
December 31 of the decennial year, and (3) send population
tabulations to the states for purposes of redistricting no later
than 1 year after the April 1 census date. (See table 1 for dates
of selected key decennial activities.)

Table 1: Timeline of Selected Key Decennial Events

Source: GAO summary of Census Bureau data.

The Bureau estimates that it will spend about $3 billion in
information technology investments to support collections,
processing and dissemination of census data and will be
undertaking four major systems acquisitions--totaling about $2
billion. The major acquisitions include the Decennial Response
Integration System (DRIS); Field Data Collection Automation (FDCA)
program, which includes the handheld mobile computing devices to
be used by the Bureau's temporary field staff; Data Access and
Dissemination System (DADS II); and Master Address
File/Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing
Accuracy Improvement Project (MTAIP) system. The four systems were
planned to be available for the Dress Rehearsal so that their
functionality could be tested in an operational environment. (See
table 2.)

Table 2: Major Information Technology Contracts

Source: GAO analysis of Census Bureau documents.

In June 2005, we reported on the Bureau's progress in five information
technology (IT) areas--investment management, systems
development/management, enterprise architecture management, information
security, and human capital.1 These areas are important because they have
substantial influence on the effectiveness of organizational operations
and, if applied effectively, can reduce the risk of cost and schedule
overruns, and performance shortfalls. We reported that, while the Bureau
had many practices in place, much remained to be done to fully implement
effective IT management capabilities. We made several recommendations to
improve the Bureau's management.

1GAO, Information Technology Management: Census Bureau Has Implemented
Many Key Practices, but Additional Actions Are Needed, [12]GAO-05-661
(Washington, D.C.: June 16, 2005).

Subsequently, in March 2006, we testified on the Bureau's acquisition and
management of two key information technology system acquisitions for the
2010 Census--FDCA and DRIS.2 We reported on the Bureau's progress in
implementing acquisitions and management capabilities for these
initiatives. To effectively manage major IT programs, organizations should
use sound acquisition and management processes, minimize risk, and thereby
maximize chances for success. Such processes include project and
acquisition planning, solicitation, requirement development and
management, and risk management. We reported that, while the project
offices responsible for these two contracts have carried out initial
acquisition management activities, neither office had the full set of
capabilities they needed to effectively manage the acquisitions, including
a full risk management process. We also made recommendations for the
Bureau to implement key activities needed to effectively manage
acquisitions. The Bureau agreed with the recommendations but is still in
the process of implementing them.

2010 Comprehensive Project Plan with Updated Cost Information Still Not Firm

Careful planning and monitoring are key to successfully managing a complex
undertaking such as the decennial census. In January 2004, we recommended
that the Bureau develop a comprehensive integrated project plan.
Specifically, we recommended that such a project plan be updated as needed
and include: (1) detailed milestones that identify all significant
interrelationships; (2) itemized estimated costs of each component,
including a sensitivity analysis, and an explanation of significant
changes in the assumptions on which these costs are based; (3) key goals
translated into measurable, operational terms to provide meaningful
guidance for planning and measuring progress; and (4) risk and mitigation
plans that fully address all significant potential risks. We reported that
although some of this information is available piecemeal, to facilitate a
thorough, independent review of the Bureau's plans and hold the agency
accountable for results, having a single, comprehensive document would be
important. In May 2007, we met with Bureau officials to discuss the status
of the 2010 project plan. At that time officials indicated that they
planned to finalize the project plan over the next several months. We look
forward to reviewing the 2010 Census project plan once it becomes
available, and we will continue to monitor the Bureau's planning efforts.

2GAO, Census Bureau: Important Activities for Improving Management of Key
2010 Decennial Acquisitions Remain to be Done, [13]GAO-06-444T
(Washington, D.C.: Mar. 1, 2006).

Among the elements of that plan, we specifically recommended that the
Bureau itemize the then-estimated $11.3 billion in costs for completing
key activities for the upcoming decennial census. However, in June 2006
before this subcommittee, we testified that the Bureau's $11.3 billion
life-cycle cost estimate for the 2010 Census lacked timely and complete
supporting data. Specifically, the supporting data of the estimate were
not timely because the data did not contain the most current information
from testing and evaluation, and were not complete because sufficient
information on how changing assumptions could affect cost was not
provided.

In its Fiscal Year 2008 Budget Estimates, the Bureau updated its estimate
to about $11.5 billion. According to Bureau documents, the estimated
life-cycle cost for the entire 2010 Census remained relatively unchanged
between 2001, when the $11.3 billion estimate first was released, and
2006.

In our testimony last year, we noted that the September 2005 estimate was
based on assumptions made in 2001 that had not been borne out by testing.
One such assumption pertained to the testing of a new handheld mobile
computing device that is intended to automate and streamline address
canvassing, nonresponse follow-up, coverage measurement, and payroll
operations. After its 2004 Census Test the Bureau found that local office
space and staff savings of 50 percent as a result of using the handheld
computers were not realized. Nonetheless, the 2005 estimate continued to
assume the 50 percent savings. In our view, revising cost estimates with
the most current information allows the Bureau to better manage the cost
of the census and make necessary resource trade-offs. Most recently, the
Bureau tested a new prototype of the handheld mobile computing devices
during the address canvassing operation of the 2008 Dress Rehearsal. This
experience should provide the Bureau additional data on productivity and
space needs when using the new devices.

Table 3 shows the Bureau's cost estimate released in June 2006. Based on
the table, most spending will occur between fiscal years 2008 through
2013.

Table 3: Bureau's Revised June 2006 Estimate of Life-cycle Costs for the
2010 Decennial Census Program (nominal year dollars, in millions)

Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Note: These figures have not been audited by GAO. Moreover, the Bureau's
updated $11.525 billion life-cycle cost estimate, as contained in the
agency's Fiscal Year 2008 Budget Estimates to the Congress, assumes cost
increases in the American Community Survey, Data Access and Dissemination
System, and Field Data Collection Automation.

Mr. Chairman, as you can see, given the projected increase in spending, it
will be imperative that the Bureau effectively manage the 2010 Census, as
the risk exists that the actual, final cost of the census could be
considerably higher than anticipated. Indeed, this was the case for the
2000 Census, when the Bureau's initial cost projections proved to be too
low because of such factors as unforeseen operational problems or changes
to the fundamental design. For example, the Bureau estimated that the 2000
Census would cost around $4 billion if sampling was used, and a
traditional census without sampling would cost around $5 billion. However,
the final price tag for the 2000 Census (without sampling) was over $6.5
billion, a 30 percent increase in cost. Large federal deficits and other
fiscal challenges underscore the importance of managing the cost of the
census, while promoting an accurate, timely census.

At the request of the House Committee on Appropriations, Subcommittee on
Commerce, Justice, Science and Related Agencies, we are reviewing the
life-cycle cost estimate of the 2010 Census to determine whether it is
comprehensive, credible, accurate, and adequately supported.

2008 Dress Rehearsal Experience Points to Further Testing of Software for LUCA
Operations

During the address canvassing phase of the 2008 Dress Rehearsal, the
Bureau tested a prototype of the handheld computers that it intends to use
for 2010. The devices are a keystone to the reengineered census because
they allow the Bureau to automate operations, and eliminate the need to
print millions of paper questionnaires and maps used by temporary field
staff to conduct address canvassing and nonresponse follow-up as well as
to manage the payroll for field staff. Automating operations allows the
Bureau to reduce the cost of operations; thus, it is critical that the
risks surrounding the use of the handheld devices be closely monitored and
effectively managed to ensure their success.

However, during the address canvassing phase of the 2008 Dress Rehearsal,
we observed some technical difficulties with the handheld mobile computing
device. We observed that it took an inordinate amount of time for field
staff using the handheld devices to link multiple units to one mapspot,
which occurs when listing units within apartment buildings. In North
Carolina, for example, we observed a field staffer take 2 hours to verify
16 addresses in one apartment building. The device was also slow to
process addresses that were a part of a large assignment area. These
inefficiencies affect productivity and ultimately the cost of the census.
Over the next several weeks, we will be working with the Bureau to
understand the root cause of the problems we observed. Given the lateness
in the testing cycle, the Bureau now runs the risk that if problems do
emerge, little time will be left to develop, test, and incorporate
refinements to the handheld devices before 2010.

To date, the Bureau, in its 2008 Dress Rehearsal, has completed nearly all
LUCA activities, and while the Bureau has taken many steps to improve LUCA
since 2000, additional steps could be taken to address possible new
challenges. To reduce participant workload and burden, the Bureau provided
a longer period for reviewing and updating LUCA materials; provided
options for submitting materials for the LUCA program; and created
MAF/TIGER3 Partnership Software (MTPS), which is designed to assist LUCA
program participants in reviewing and updating address and map data. This
software will enable users to import address lists and maps for comparison
to the Bureau's data and participate at the same time in both the LUCA and
another geographic program, the Boundary and Annexation Survey.4 However,
during the Dress Rehearsal, the Bureau tested MTPS with only one local
government. The Bureau also planned improvements to LUCA by offering
specialized workshops for informational and technical training and
supplementing the workshops with new computer-based training. However, the
Bureau did not test its computer-based training software in the Dress
Rehearsal.5 Properly executed user-based methods for software testing can
give the truest estimate of the extent to which real users can employ a
software application effectively, efficiently, and satisfactorily. In June
2007, we recommended the Bureau better assess the usability of the MTPS
and test the computer-based training software with local governments. The
Bureau has agreed to do so, and in August 2007 is expected to provide an
action plan for how it will implement this recommendation.

3The Bureau's address list is known as the Master Address File (MAF); its
associated geographic information system is called the Topologically
Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing (TIGER) database. TIGER is
a registered trademark of the U.S. Census Bureau.

Additionally, not all participants will rely on the MTPS. For these
participants, the Bureau could do more to help them use their own
software. We found that participants in the LUCA Dress Rehearsal
experienced problems converting files from the Bureau's format to their
respective applications; our survey of participants in the LUCA Dress
Rehearsal showed that the majority of respondents had, to some extent,
problems with file conversions to appropriate formats. For example, one
local official noted that it took him 2 days to determine how to convert
the Bureau's files. At present, the Bureau does not know how many
localities that participate in LUCA will opt not to use MTPS, but those
localities may face the same challenges faced by participants in the LUCA
Dress Rehearsal. In response to our recommendations, the Bureau agreed to
disseminate instructions on file conversion on its Web site and provide
instructions to help-desk callers.

4The Bureau conducts the Boundary and Annexation Survey annually to
collect information about selected defined geographic areas. This survey
is used to update information about the legal boundaries and names of all
governmental units in the United States.

5Respondents to our survey ranked computer-based training higher than
classroom training, in terms of being "extremely" or "very" useful.
Additionally, local officials told us that this training was more
convenient for them because they need not leave their offices or adjust
their schedules to learn how the LUCA program works.

Bureau's Plans for Greater Use of Automation and Technology Demand Greater Risk
Management

The Bureau's reengineered approach for the 2010 Census involves greater
use of automation, which offers the prospect of greater efficiency and
effectiveness; however, these actions also introduce new risks. The
automation of key census processes involves an extensive reliance on
contractors. Consequently, contract oversight and management become a key
challenge to a successful census. We are (1) determining the status and
plans for DRIS, FDCA, MTAIP, and DADS II (including cost, schedule, and
performance); and (2) assessing whether the bureau is adequately managing
risks associated with these key contracts including efforts to integrate
systems. We are scheduled to report the results of our work by September
2007. Effective risk management includes identifying and analyzing risks,
assigning resources, and developing risk mitigation plans and milestones
for key mitigation deliverables, briefing senior-level managers on
high-priority risks, and tracking risks to closure. Risk management is an
important project management discipline to ensure that among other things,
key technologies are delivered on time, within budget, and with the
promised functionality.

The Bureau has awarded three of four 2010 decennial census contracts:
MTAIP (June 2002), DRIS (October 2005), and FDCA (March 2006). For DADS
II, the Bureau delayed the contract award by 1 year (the contract is now
scheduled to be awarded in September 2007). In March 2006, Bureau
officials said that this 1-year delay occurred to gain a clearer sense of
budget priorities before initiating the request for proposal process.

Our preliminary results on the status and plans for the three awarded 2010
decennial census system contracts show that the contractors are making
mixed progress in meeting cost, schedule, and functional performance.
Specifically, the DRIS, FDCA, and MTAIP contractors are delivering
products on schedule. For example, as of March 2007, the MTAIP contractor
delivered 2,513 of the 3,232 improved county map files to the Bureau's
repository of the location of every street, boundary, and other map
features (known as the TIGER database). In addition, the DRIS contractor
has delivered certain program management documents on schedule, including
the External Interface Control document, which documents the interfaces
between DRIS and the other 2010 Census systems, such as FDCA. Also, the
FDCA contractors provided the 1,400 handheld mobile computing devices on
schedule for conducting the May 2007 address canvassing for the Dress
Rehearsal sites in North Carolina and California.

Concerning costs, two projects--DRIS and MTAIP--are in line with the
projected budget. For example, as of March 2007, of the $66 million
planned for DRIS during this period, the Bureau has obligated $37 million
and disbursed $19 million with the project 36 percent completed. Further,
our analyses of cost performance reports show no projected cost overrun
for DRIS by the 2008 Dress Rehearsal. However, the FDCA project is
projected to experience cost overruns by the 2008 Dress Rehearsal. Our
analyses of earned value management (EVM)6 data show a projected FDCA cost
overrun by between $17 million and $22 million, with the most likely cost
overrun being about $18 million. According to the contractor, the overrun
is occurring primarily due to the increase in system requirements. We are
concerned that this is an indication of additional cost increases that are
forthcoming, given requirements growth associated with FDCA.

The Bureau has delayed delivering some key functionality that was expected
to be delivered for the Dress Rehearsal. For example, some key
functionality expected to be delivered with DRIS contract including the
2010 Census telephone assistance system has been delayed until fiscal year
2009. The Bureau has stated that it will not have a robust telephone
assistance system in place for the Dress Rehearsal. The Bureau has also
delayed selecting data capture center sites for the 2010 Census,
building-out data capture facilities (including physical security,
hardware, furniture, and telecommunications), and recruiting and hiring
data capture center staff. According to the Bureau, this delay will affect
areas, such as hardware installation and staffing training. Further, the
Dress Rehearsal will not include all collection forms for the 2010 Census.
According to project team officials, changes to the DRIS original
functionality were due to the Bureau's fiscal year 2006 budget
constraints, and therefore changed their priorities for the 2008 Dress
Rehearsal.

The importance of testing is particularly important, since systems and
functionality planned for the 2010 Census will not be available for the
2008 Dress Rehearsal. The Bureau has plans to conduct system tests, such
as the interfaces between FDCA and DRIS. The Bureau has not finalized
plans for other tests to be performed for the 2010 Census, such as
end-to-end testing. End-to-end testing is performed to verify that a
defined set of interrelated systems that collectively support an
organizational core business function interoperate as intended in an
operational environment. The failure to conduct end-to-end testing
increases the risks of systems performance failure occurring during the
2010 Census operations.

6EVM is a project management tool that integrates the investment scope of
work with schedule and cost elements for investment planning and control.
The method compares the value of work accomplished during a given period
with that of work expected in the period. Differences in expectations are
measured in both cost and schedule variances. OMB requires agencies to use
EVM as part of their performance-based management system for any
investment under development or with system improvements under way.

Our preliminary results also show that the Bureau's project teams have
made progress in risk management activities, but weaknesses remain.
According to the Software Engineering Institute's (SEI) Capability
Maturity Model(R) Integration (CMMISM), the purpose of risk management is
to identify potential problems before they occur so that risk-handling
activities can be executed as needed to mitigate adverse impacts.7 Risk
management activities can be divided into key areas, including identifying
and analyzing risks, mitigating risks, and executive oversight. The
discipline of risk management is important to help ensure that projects
are delivered on time, within budget, and with the promised functionality.
It is especially important for the 2010 Census, given the immovable
deadline.

Our preliminary results on the Bureau's risk management processes show
that the project teams have performed many practices associated with
establishing sound and capable risk management processes. Specifically,
most of the projects (DRIS, FDCA, and DADS II) had developed a risk
management strategy to identify the methods or tools to be used for risk
identification, risk analysis and prioritization, and risk mitigation.
However, some projects did not fully identify risks, establish mitigation
plans that identified planned actions and milestones, and report risk
status to higher level officials.

o All four projects were identifying and analyzing risks, but one
project team was not adequately performing this activity. As of
May 2007, the most significant risks for DRIS included the
possibility of a continuing budget resolution for fiscal year
2008, new system security regulations, and disagreement between
the Bureau and contractor on functionality implementation. For
FDCA, as of May 2007, the most significant risks included
insufficient funding, late development of training materials, and
untimely completion of IT Security Certification and
Accreditation. However, as part of our ongoing work, we question
the completeness of the reported risks. For example, although the
FDCA project had experienced a major increase in the number of
requirements, the project team did not identify this as a
significant risk. In addition, the project office did not identify
any risks associated with using the handheld mobile computing
devices.

7The CMMI is SEI's process model, which describes how to develop processes
needed for software development and specific practices that organizations
should follow.

o All four projects are developing risk mitigation plans as a
response strategy for the handling of risks, but three project
teams (DADS II, FDCA, and MTAIP) developed mitigation plans that
were often untimely or had incomplete activities and milestones.
For example, although mitigation plans were developed for all
high-level risks, they did not always identify milestones for
implementing mitigating activities. In addition, the FDCA project
has yet to provide any evidence of mitigation plans to handle
their medium-level risks as described in their risk management
strategy.
o Two projects (MTAIP and FDCA) have yet to provide evidence that
risks were reported regularly to higher-level Department of
Commerce and Bureau officials. For example, although both project
teams had met with Commerce and Bureau officials to discuss the
status of the projects, the meetings did not include discussions
about the status of risks.

The failure to develop timely and complete mitigation plans
increases the project's exposure to risks and reduces the project
team's ability to effectively control and manage risks during the
work effort. Further, failure to report a project's risks to
higher level officials reduces the visibility of risks to
executives that should be playing a role in mitigating them. Until
the project teams implement effective and consistent risk
management processes, the Bureau faces increased risks that system
acquisition projects will incur cost overruns, schedule delays,
and performance shortfalls.

Bureau Is Designing Decennial Activities in the Geographic Area Affected by
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita, but Needs to Finalize Plans and Related Milestones

As part of our evaluation of the Bureau's LUCA Dress Rehearsal, we
visited the localities along the Gulf Coast to assess the effect
that Hurricanes Katrina and Rita might have on decennial
activities in these geographic areas, and we found that the damage
and devastation of these hurricanes will likely affect the
Bureau's LUCA program and possibly other operations. The Bureau
has begun to take steps toward addressing these issues by
developing proposed actions. However, the Bureau has not yet
finalized plans and milestones related to changes in actions for
modifying address canvassing or subsequent operations in
hurricane-affected areas.

In visiting localities along the Gulf Coast earlier this year, we
observed that the effects of the hurricanes are still visible
throughout the Gulf Coast region. Hurricane Katrina alone
destroyed or made uninhabitable an estimated 300,000 homes; in New
Orleans, local officials reported that Hurricane Katrina damaged
an estimated 123,000 housing units. Such changes in housing unit
stock continue to present challenges to the implementation of the
2010 LUCA Program and address canvassing operations in the Gulf
Coast region. Many officials of local governments we visited in
hurricane-affected areas said they have identified numerous
housing units that have been or will be demolished as a result of
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita and subsequent deterioration.
Conversely, many local governments estimate that there is new
development of housing units in their respective jurisdictions.
The localities we interviewed in the Gulf Coast region indicated
that such changes in the housing stock of their jurisdictions are
unlikely to subside before local governments begin reviewing and
updating materials for the Bureau's 2010 LUCA Program--in August
2007.8 As a result, local governments in hurricane-affected areas
may be unable to fully capture reliable information about their
address lists before the beginning of LUCA.

The mixed condition of the housing stock in the Gulf Coast could
decrease productivity rates during address canvassing. We observed
that hurricane-affected areas have many neighborhoods with
abandoned and vacant properties mixed in with occupied housing
units. Bureau field staff conducting address canvassing in these
areas may have decreased productivity due to the additional time
necessary to distinguish between abandoned, vacant, and occupied
housing units. We also observed many areas where lots included a
permanent structure with undetermined occupancy as well as a
trailer. Bureau field staff may be presented with the challenge of
determining whether a residence or a trailer (see fig. 1), or
both, are occupied. Another potential issue is that, due to
continuing changes in the condition in the housing stock, housing
units that are deemed uninhabitable during address canvassing may
be occupied on Census Day, April 1, 2010. Bureau officials said
that they recognize there are issues with identifying
uninhabitable structures in hurricane-affected zones. Further,
workforce shortages may also pose significant problems for the
Bureau's hiring efforts for address canvassing. The effects of
Hurricanes Katrina and Rita caused a major shift in population
away from the hurricane-affected areas, especially in Louisiana.
This migration displaced many low-wage workers. Should this
continue, it could affect the availability of such workers for
address canvassing and other decennial census operations.

8The period for local review and update of addresses and maps for the 2010
LUCA Program is August 2007-March 2008.

Figure 1: Trailers in Front of Damaged Housing Units in New
Orleans, Louisiana

In June 2006, we recommended that the Bureau develop plans (prior
to the start of the 2010 LUCA Program in August 2007) to assess
whether new procedures, additional resources, or local
partnerships, may be required to update the MAF/TIGER database
along the Gulf Coast--in the areas affected by Hurricanes Katrina
and Rita.9 The Bureau consulted with state and regional officials
from the Gulf Coast on how to make LUCA as successful as possible,
and held additional promotional workshops for geographic areas
identified by the Bureau as needing additional assistance.

The Bureau has also considered changes to address canvassing and
subsequent operations in the Gulf Coast region. For example,
Bureau officials stated that they recognize issues with
identifying uninhabitable structures in hurricane-affected zones
and, as a result, that they may need to change procedures for
address canvassing. The Bureau is still brainstorming ideas,
including the possibility of using its "Update/Enumerate"10
operation in areas along the Gulf Coast. Bureau officials also
said that they may adjust training for field staff conducting
address canvassing in hurricane-affected areas to help them
distinguish between abandoned, vacant, and occupied housing units.
Without proper training, field staff can make errors and will not
operate as efficiently.11

9GAO, 2010 Census: Census Bureau Needs to Take Prompt Actions to Resolve
Long-standing and Emerging Address and Mapping Challenges, [43]GAO-06-272
(Washington, D.C.: June 15, 2006), and GAO, 2010 Census: Costs and Risks
Must be Closely Monitored and Evaluated with Mitigation Plans in Place,
[44]GAO-06-822T (Washington, D.C.: June 6, 2006).

10In an "Update/Enumerate" operation, interviewers enumerate a housing
unit and update address registers and census maps at the time of their
visit.

The Bureau's plans for how it may adjust address canvassing
operations in the Gulf Coast region can also have implications for
subsequent operations. For example, instructing its field staff to
be as inclusive as possible in completing address canvassing could
cause increased efforts to contact nonrespondents because the
Bureau could send questionnaires to housing units that could be
vacant on Census Day. In terms of the Bureau's workforce in the
Gulf Coast region, Bureau officials also recognize the potential
difficulty of attracting field staff, and have recommended that
the Bureau be prepared to pay hourly wage rates for future
decennial field staff that are considerably higher than usual.
However, Bureau officials stated that there are "no concrete
plans" to implement changes to address canvassing or subsequent
decennial operations in the Gulf Coast region.

Mr. Chairman, the Bureau faces formidable challenges in
successfully implementing a redesigned decennial. It must also
overcome significant challenges of a demographic and socioeconomic
nature due to the nation's increasing diversity in language,
ethnicity, households, and housing type, as well a reluctance of
the population to participate in the census. The need to enumerate
in the areas devastated by Hurricanes Katrina and Rita is one more
significant difficulty the Bureau faces. We have stated in the
past, and believe still, that the Bureau's reengineering effort,
if effectively implemented, can help control costs and improve
cost effectiveness and efficiency. Yet, there is more that the
Bureau can do in managing risks for the 2010 Census.

The Dress Rehearsal represents a critical stage in preparing for
Census 2010--a time when the Bureau's plans will be tested as
close to census-like conditions as is possible. This is a time
when the Congress, the Department of Commerce, and others should
have the information needed to know how well the design is
working. This is a time for making transparent the risks that the
Bureau must manage to ensure a successful census. We have
highlighted some of these risks today.

11GAO, 2010 Census: Census Bureau Should Refine Recruiting and Hiring
Efforts and Enhance Training of Temporary Field Staff, [45]GAO-07-361
(Washington, D.C.: Apr. 27, 2007).

First, the Bureau's planning and reporting of milestones and
estimated costs could be made more useful. Second, the performance
of key contractors needs more oversight. Third, the Bureau can
build on lessons learned early in the Dress Rehearsal by further
testing new software that will help localities participating in
the LUCA program. The functionality and usability of the handheld
computing device--a key piece of hardware in the reengineered
census--also bears watching. If, after the 2008 Dress Rehearsal,
the handheld computers are found to not be reliable, the Bureau
could be faced with the remote but daunting possibility of having
to revert, in whole or in part, to the costly, paper-based census
used in 2000. Finally, the Bureau must complete plans for ensuring
an accurate population count in areas affected by Hurricanes
Katrina and Rita. All told, these areas continue to call for risk
mitigation plans by the Bureau and careful monitoring and
oversight by the Commerce Department, Office of Management and
Budget, the Congress, GAO, and other key stakeholders. As in the
past, we look forward to supporting this subcommittee's oversight
efforts to promote a timely, complete, accurate, and
cost-effective census.

Related GAO Products

Mr. Chairman that concludes our statement. We would be glad to
answer any questions you and the committee members may have.

2010 Census: Census Bureau Is Making Progress on the Local Update
of Census Addresses Program, but Improvements Are Needed.
[14]GAO-07-1063T . Washington, D.C.: June 26, 2007.

2010 Census: Census Bureau Has Improved the Local Update of Census
Addresses Program, but Challenges Remain. [15]GAO-07-736 .
Washington, D.C.: June 14, 2007.

2010 Census: Census Bureau Should Refine Recruiting and Hiring
Efforts and Enhance Training of Temporary Field Staff.
[16]GAO-07-361 . Washington, D.C.: April 27, 2007.

2010 Census: Design Shows Progress, but Managing Technology
Acquisitions, Temporary Field Staff, and Gulf Region Enumeration
Require Attention. [17]GAO-07-779T . Washington, D.C.: April 24,
2007.

2010 Census: Redesigned Approach Holds Promise, but Census Bureau
Needs to Annually Develop and Provide a Comprehensive Project Plan
to Monitor Costs. [18]GAO-06-1009T . Washington, D.C.: July 27,
2006.

2010 Census: Census Bureau Needs to Take Prompt Actions to Resolve
Long-standing and Emerging Address and Mapping Challenges.
[19]GAO-06-272 . Washington, D.C.: June 15, 2006.

2010 Census: Costs and Risks Must be Closely Monitored and
Evaluated with Mitigation Plans in Place. [20]GAO-06-822T .
Washington, D.C.: June 6, 2006.

2010 Census: Census Bureau Generally Follows Selected Leading
Acquisition Planning Practices, but Continued Management
Attentions Is Needed to Help Ensure Success. [21]GAO-06-277 .
Washington, D.C.: May 18, 2006.

Census Bureau: Important Activities for Improving Management of
Key 2010 Decennial Acquisitions Remain to be Done. [22]GAO-06-444T
. Washington, D.C.: March 1, 2006.

2010 Census: Planning and Testing Activities Are Making Progress.
[23]GAO-06-465T . Washington, D.C.: March 1, 2006.

Information Technology Management: Census Bureau Has Implemented
Many Key Practices, but Additional Actions Are Needed.
[24]GAO-05-661 . Washington, D.C.: June 16, 2005.

2010 Census: Basic Design Has Potential, but Remaining Challenges
Need Prompt Resolution. [25]GAO-05-09 . Washington, D.C.: January
12, 2005.

Data Quality: Census Bureau Needs to Accelerate Efforts to Develop
and Implement Data Quality Review Standards. [26]GAO-05-86 .
Washington, D.C.: November 17, 2004.

Census 2000: Design Choices Contributed to Inaccuracies in
Coverage Evaluation Estimates. [27]GAO-05-71 . Washington, D.C.:
November 12, 2004.

American Community Survey: Key Unresolved Issues. [28]GAO-05-82 .
Washington, D.C.: October 8, 2004.

2010 Census: Counting Americans Overseas as Part of the Decennial
Census Would Not Be Cost-Effective. [29]GAO-04-898 . Washington,
D.C.: August 19, 2004.

2010 Census: Overseas Enumeration Test Raises Need for Clear
Policy Direction. [30]GAO-04-470 . Washington, D.C.: May 21, 2004.

2010 Census: Cost and Design Issues Need to Be Addressed Soon.
[31]GAO-04-37 . Washington, D.C.: January 15, 2004.

Decennial Census: Lessons Learned for Locating and Counting
Migrant and Seasonal Farm Workers. [32]GAO-03-605 . Washington,
D.C.: July 3, 2003.

Decennial Census: Methods for Collecting and Reporting Hispanic
Subgroup Data Need Refinement. [33]GAO-03-228 . Washington, D.C.:
January 17, 2003.

Decennial Census: Methods for Collecting and Reporting Data on the
Homeless and Others Without Conventional Housing Need Refinement.
[34]GAO-03-227 . Washington, D.C.: January 17, 2003.

2000 Census: Lessons Learned for Planning a More Cost-Effective
2010 Census. [35]GAO-03-40 . Washington, D.C.: October 31, 2002.

The American Community Survey: Accuracy and Timeliness Issues.
[36]GAO-02-956R . Washington, D.C.: September 30, 2002.

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[46]www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-1106T .

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Highlights of [47]GAO-07-1106T , testimony before the Subcommittee on
Federal Financial Management, Government Information, Federal Services,
and International Security, Committee on Homeland Security and
Governmental Affairs, U.S. Senate

July 17, 2007

2010 CENSUS

Preparations for the 2010 Census Underway, but Continued Oversight and
Risk Management Are Critical

[48]What GAO Recommends

At this time, GAO is not making new recommendations, but past reports
recommended that the Bureau take steps to develop a project plan for the
2010 Census, further test software for the Local Update of Census
Addresses (LUCA) program, and promote an accurate census in areas affected
by hurricanes Katrina and Rita. The Bureau generally agreed with these
recommendations and has begun to implement some of them.

The Bureau is conducting its Dress Rehearsal of the 2010 Census, the last
opportunity it will have to test its design under census-like conditions.
Given the importance of a successful enumeration and the complexities of
enumerating a hard-to-count population in a more technology-dependent
census, our message remains that the risks associated with the decennial
must be closely monitored, evaluated, and managed. GAO found that the
Bureau is developing but has not yet completed a comprehensive project
plan that includes milestones, itemized costs, and measurable goals, nor
has it updated the 2010 life-cycle cost estimate to reflect current
information from testing. Having a comprehensive project plan and updated
cost information will allow the Bureau to manage the operations and cost
of the decennial census. Moreover, GAO observed technical problems with
the handheld computing devices used in the Dress Rehearsal by field staff
for address canvassing (in which the Bureau verifies addresses). If the
device does not function as expected or needed, little time will be left
for the Bureau to take corrective action. In addition, during the LUCA
Dress Rehearsal, the Bureau did not fully test software tools intended to
reduce burden on participants. Also, the Bureau's level of reliance on
automation and technology for the 2010 Census, at an estimated cost of $3
billion, makes effective contractor oversight (of cost, schedule, and
technical performance) and risk management activities imperative. Finally,
in the Gulf Coast Region, the condition of the changing housing stock is
likely to present additional challenges for the address canvassing
operation and subsequent operations. However, the Bureau has not finalized
plans for modifying the address canvassing operation or subsequent
operations in the Gulf Coast region.

Timeline of Selected Key Decennial Events

Source: GAO summary of Census Bureau data.

References

Visible links
12. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-05-661
13. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-444T
14. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-1063T
15. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-736
16. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-361
17. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-779T
18. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-1009T
19. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-272
20. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-822T
21. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-277
22. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-444T
23. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-465T
24. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-05-661
25. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-05-09
26. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-05-86
27. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-05-71
28. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-05-82
29. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-898
30. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-470
31. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-04-37
32. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-03-605
33. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-03-228
34. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-03-227
35. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-03-40
36. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-02-956R
37. http://www.gao.gov/
38. http://www.gao.gov/
39. http://www.gao.gov/fraudnet/fraudnet.htm
40. mailto:[email protected]
41. mailto:[email protected]
42. mailto:[email protected]
43. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-272
44. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-06-822T
45. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-361
46. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-1106T
47. http://www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-07-1106T
*** End of document. ***