DOD Should Provide Congress and the American Public with Monthly 
Data on Enemy-Initiated Attacks in Iraq in a Timely Manner	 
(28-SEP-07, GAO-07-1048R).					 
                                                                 
In January 2007, the President stated that the high levels of	 
violence in Iraq had overwhelmed the political gains that the	 
Iraqis had made and required a new U.S. strategy for stabilizing 
the country. The new strategy recognized that until the Iraqi	 
people have a basic measure of security, they would not be able  
to make significant and sustainable political and economic	 
progress. To help Iraqi leaders provide security for their	 
population, the United States deployed about 30,000 additional	 
troops to Iraq during the spring of 2007, bringing the total	 
number of U.S. military personnel up to about 160,000 as of	 
mid-June 2007. Enemy-initiated attacks data are a key indicator  
of progress in improving Iraq's security situation, an important 
condition that, according to the administration, must be met	 
before the United States can reduce its military presence in	 
Iraq. While attacks data alone may not provide a complete picture
of Iraq's security situation, Department of Defense (DOD) and	 
Multinational Force-Iraq (MNF-I) officials state that the data	 
provide a reasonably sound depiction of general security trends  
in the country. Since 2004, we have periodically provided this	 
information to Congress in classified and unclassified briefings,
reports, and testimonies. In response to GAO's requests, various 
DOD components--most recently the Defense Intelligence Agency	 
(DIA)--have assisted GAO in publicly reporting trends in the	 
security situation by declassifying the attacks data on a monthly
basis. In our report on the status of the achievement of Iraqi	 
benchmarks, we provided attacks data through July 31, 2007.2 This
report provides data through August 31, 2007.			 
-------------------------Indexing Terms------------------------- 
REPORTNUM:   GAO-07-1048R					        
    ACCNO:   A76827						        
  TITLE:     DOD Should Provide Congress and the American Public with 
Monthly Data on Enemy-Initiated Attacks in Iraq in a Timely	 
Manner								 
     DATE:   09/28/2007 
  SUBJECT:   Congressional oversight				 
	     Congressional powers				 
	     Defense operations 				 
	     Government information dissemination		 
	     Iraq War and reconstruction			 
	     Military forces					 
	     Military operations				 
	     National defense operations			 

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GAO-07-1048R

September 28, 2007

Congressional Committees

Subject: DOD Should Provide Congress and the American Public with Monthly
Data on Enemy-Initiated Attacks in Iraq in a Timely Manner

In January 2007, the President stated that the high levels of violence in
Iraq had overwhelmed the political gains that the Iraqis had made and
required a new U.S. strategy for stabilizing the country. The new strategy
recognized that until the Iraqi people have a basic measure of security,
they would not be able to make significant and sustainable political and
economic progress. To help Iraqi leaders provide security for their
population, the United States deployed about 30,000 additional troops to
Iraq during the spring of 2007, bringing the total number of U.S. military
personnel up to about 160,000 as of mid-June 2007.

Enemy-initiated attacks data are a key indicator of progress in improving
Iraq's security situation, an important condition that, according to the
administration, must be met before the United States can reduce its
military presence in Iraq. While attacks data alone may not provide a
complete picture of Iraq's security situation, Department of Defense (DOD)
and Multinational Force-Iraq (MNF-I) officials state that the data provide
a reasonably sound depiction of general security trends in the country.
Since 2004, we have periodically provided this information to Congress in
classified and unclassified briefings, reports, and testimonies.^1 In
response to GAO's requests, various DOD components--most recently the
Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA)--have assisted GAO in publicly reporting
trends in the security situation by declassifying the attacks data on a
monthly basis. In our report on the status of the achievement of Iraqi
benchmarks, we provided attacks data through July 31, 2007.^2 This report
provides data through August 31, 2007.

While the administration has provided the Congress with aggregated attacks
data in DOD's quarterly reports and more limited attacks information in
the July and September 2007 benchmarks reports, it is important that the
Congress and the American public receive the monthly attacks data
routinely from the Department of Defense. We are recommending that DOD
make the data publicly available each month in a timely manner.

^1For example, see GAO, Rebuilding Iraq: Resource, Security, Governance,
Essential Services, and Oversight Issues, GAO-04-92R (Washington, D.C.:
June 2004); GAO, Securing, Stabilizing, and Stabilizing Iraq: Key Issues
for Congressional Oversight, GAO-07-308SP  (Washington, D.C.: Jan. 2007);
GAO, DOD Reports Should Link Economic, Governance, and Security Indicators
to Conditions for Stabilizing Iraq, GAO-06-152C  (Washington, D.C.: Oct.
2005).

^2GAO, Securing, Stabilizing, and Rebuilding Iraq: Iraqi Government Has
Not Met Most Legislative, Security, and Economic Benchmarks, GAO-07-1195
(Washington, D.C.: Sept. 2006).

The updated attacks data we provide in this letter are sufficiently
reliable for establishing general trends in the number of enemy-initiated
attacks in Iraq. To determine the reliability of the data, we reviewed
MNF-I's attacks reporting guidance, compared the unclassified data to
classified sources, and discussed how the data are collected, analyzed,
and reported with DIA and MNF-I officials. While the attacks data provide
a reasonably sound depiction of security trends, DOD documents and
officials acknowledge that these data provide only a partial picture of
the violence in Iraq because not all attacks against civilians and Iraqi
security forces are observed by or reported to coalition forces. Our
latest analysis of attacks data was conducted from June through August
2007 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.

Enemy-Initiated Attacks Remain at High Levels

Overall security conditions in Iraq have deteriorated and grown more
complex, since May 2003, as evidenced by the increased numbers of attacks
and the Sunni-Shi'a sectarian strife that followed the February 2006
bombing of the Golden Mosque in Samarra. Enemy-initiated attacks against
the coalition and its Iraqi partners increased through October 2006 and
have remained at high levels since that time (see fig. 1). These attacks
have increased around major religious and political events, including
Ramadan^3  and elections. Coalition forces are still the primary target of
attacks, but the number of attacks on Iraqi security forces and civilians
also has increased since 2003.

^3Ramadan is the ninth month of the Islamic calendar. Over the past 4
years, the month of Ramadan began about October 27, 2003; October 16,
2004; October 5, 2005; and September 24, 2006. In 2007, Ramadan began on
September 13.

Figure 1: Enemy-Initiated Attacks against the Coalition, Iraqi Security
Forces, and Civilians (May 2003 through August 2007)

Note: Attacks against infrastructure account for less than 1 percent of
enemy-initiated attacks.

Following the President's announcement of the new U.S. strategy, the
average number of daily attacks^4 decreased slightly from about 170 in
January 2007 to about 160 in March 2007 but then increased to about 180 in
June 2007 (see fig. 2). The average number of daily attacks in June 2007
was about the same level as the prior high of about 180 attacks per day,
which occurred in October 2006 around the time of Ramadan. The average
number of daily attacks decreased to 123 in August 2007--the lowest level
since June 2006 when the average number of attacks was 121 per day. The
decrease in the average total number of daily attacks in August 2007 was
primarily due to a decrease in the number of attacks against coalition
forces. Further, the average number of daily attacks against civilians
decreased to 22 in August compared to an average of approximately 30 per
day over the preceding 14 months. Although the average number of daily
attacks has declined in recent months, data from previous years indicates
the number of attacks typically increases during the month of Ramadan.
Ramadan began on September 13, 2007.

^4The average number of daily attacks is calculated by dividing the total
number of enemy-initiated attacks against the coalition, Iraqi security
forces, and civilians for a specific month by the number of days in the
month.

Figure 2: Average Number of Daily Attacks against the Coalition, Iraqi
Security Forces, and Civilians (May 2003 through August 2007)

Note: The Baghdad security plan was implemented in February 2007.

The enemy-initiated attacks counted in DIA's reporting include car,
suicide, and other bombs; ambushes; murders, executions, and
assassinations; sniper fire; indirect fire (mortars or rockets); direct
fire (small arms or rocket-propelled grenades); surface-to-air fire (such
as man-portable air defense systems or MANPADS); and other attacks on
civilians. They do not include violent incidents that coalition or Iraqi
security forces initiate, such as cordon and searches, raids, arrests, and
caches cleared. DIA derives its attack trend data from an MNF-I data base.
According to DIA, the incidents captured in military reporting do not
account for all violence throughout Iraq. For example, they may
underreport incidents of Shi'a militias fighting each other and attacks
against Iraqi security forces in southern Iraq and other areas with few or
no coalition forces. DIA officials stated, however, that they represent a
reliable and consistent source of information that can be used to identify
trends in enemy activity and the overall security situation.^5

In DOD's quarterly reports to Congress, the department has provided highly
aggregated attacks data to portray security trends.^6 For example, in its
June 2007 report, DOD provides information on average weekly attacks since
April 2004 for inconsistent time periods that range from 6 to 32 weeks and
coincide with political events and recent military operations in Iraq (see
encl. 1). Further, the administration's July and September 2007 Iraq
benchmarks reports discuss some types of attacks but do not provide
specific information on overall changes in monthly attack levels over
time. We believe that more detailed monthly attacks data would provide
routine and up-to-date information that would allow Congress to regularly
track changes in Iraq's security situation.

^5In June 2007, DIA notified GAO that its April 2007 attack data were
incorrect because it had excluded attacks from a new subordinate command
established on April 1, 2007. According to DIA, Multi-National
Division-Center did not properly forward its April attack data because of
inadequate reporting procedures; it has since corrected the problem. This
report contains the corrected April data.

^6DOD, Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq, June 2007, Report to
Congress in Accordance with the Department of Defense Appropriations Act
of 2007, Section 9010, Public Law 109-289 (Washington, D.C.: June 2007).

Recommendation for Executive Action

Given the importance of congressional oversight and the American public's
interest in progress in stabilizing Iraq, we are recommending that DOD
should, on a monthly basis, make data on the enemy-initiated attacks
available to Congress, the American public, and GAO in a timely manner.

Agency Comments

The Department of Defense concurred with our recommendation stating that
it will provide the attack data specified in the report to GAO and
Congress (see encl. 2). On September 14, 2007, the department included
monthly attacks data for the period June 2004 through August 2007 in its
quarterly report to Congress, Measuring Stability and Security in Iraq.

We distributed copies of this letter to appropriate congressional
committees. This letter will also be available at no charge on our Web
site at [1]http://www.gao.gov . If you or your staff have any questions
about this letter, please contact Joseph Christoff, director of GAO's
International Affairs and Trade team, at (202) 512-8979 or by email at
[2][email protected] . Other key contributors to the report include
Judith McCloskey, David Bruno, Lynn Cothern, Mattias Fenton, Dorian
Herring, Melissa Pickworth, and Jena Sinkfield.

Sincerely yours,

David M. Walker
Comptroller General of the United States

cc: The Honorable Robert M. Gates

List of Recipients

The Honorable Carl Levin
Chairman
The Honorable John S. McCain
Ranking Member
Committee on Armed Services
United States Senate

The Honorable Joseph R. Biden, Jr.
Chairman
The Honorable Richard G. Lugar
Ranking Member
Committee on Foreign Relations
United States Senate

The Honorable Daniel Inouye
Chairman
The Honorable Ted Stevens
Ranking Member
Subcommittee on Defense
Committee on Appropriations
United States Senate

The Honorable Patrick J. Leahy
Chairman
The Honorable Judd Gregg
Ranking Member
Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs
Committee on Appropriations
United States Senate

The Honorable Ike Skelton
Chairman
The Honorable Duncan L. Hunter
Ranking Member
Committee on Armed Services
House of Representatives

The Honorable Tom Lantos
Chairman
The Honorable Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
Ranking Member
Committee on Foreign Affairs
House of Representatives

The Honorable Henry A. Waxman
Chairman
The Honorable Tom Davis
Ranking Member
Committee on Oversight and Government Reform
House of Representatives

The Honorable John F. Tierney
Chairman
The Honorable Christopher Shays
Ranking Member
Subcommittee on National Security and Foreign Affairs
Committee on Oversight and Government Reform
House of Representatives

The Honorable Joseph P. Murtha
Chairman
The Honorable C.W. Bill Young
Ranking Member
Subcommittee on Defense
Committee on Appropriations
House of Representatives

The Honorable Nita M. Lowey
Chairman
The Honorable Frank R. Wolf
Ranking Member
Subcommittee on State, Foreign Operations, and Related Programs
Committee on Appropriations
House of Representatives

Enclosure 1

Attacks Data Presented in DOD's June 2007 Quarterly Report to Congress

Enclosure 2

                    Comments from the Department of Defense

(320498)

References

Visible links
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2. mailto:[email protected]
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