Defense Acquisitions: Space System Acquisition Risks and Keys to 
Addressing Them (01-JUN-06, GAO-06-776R).			 
                                                                 
On April 6, 2006, we testified before Congress on the Department 
of Defense's (DOD) space acquisitions. In fiscal year 2007, DOD  
expects to spend nearly $7 billion to acquire space-based	 
capabilities to support current military and other government	 
operations as well as to enable DOD to transform the way it	 
collects and disseminates information, gathers data on its	 
adversaries, and attacks targets. Despite its growing investment 
in space, however, DOD's space system acquisitions have 	 
experienced problems over the past several decades that have	 
driven up costs by hundreds of millions, even billions, of	 
dollars; stretched schedules by years; and increased performance 
risks. In some cases, capabilities have not been delivered to the
warfighter after decades of development. Within this context,	 
Congress requested that we provide additional comments regarding 
the need for better program management, space acquisition policy,
and DOD's Space Radar and Transformational Satellite		 
Communications System acquisitions.				 
-------------------------Indexing Terms------------------------- 
REPORTNUM:   GAO-06-776R					        
    ACCNO:   A55080						        
  TITLE:     Defense Acquisitions: Space System Acquisition Risks and 
Keys to Addressing Them 					 
     DATE:   06/01/2006 
  SUBJECT:   Aerospace research 				 
	     Cost analysis					 
	     Cost overruns					 
	     Defense capabilities				 
	     Defense procurement				 
	     Internal controls					 
	     Labor force					 
	     Military satellites				 
	     Military technology				 
	     Performance measures				 
	     Procurement planning				 
	     Procurement practices				 
	     Program management 				 
	     Requirements definition				 
	     Schedule slippages 				 
	     Space exploration					 
	     Cost estimates					 
	     DOD Advanced Extremely High Frequency		 
	     Satellite Program					 
                                                                 
	     DOD Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle		 
	     Program						 
                                                                 
	     DOD Space Radar Program				 
	     DOD Space-Based Infrared System High		 
	     Component						 
                                                                 
	     DOD Transformational Satellite			 
	     Communications System Program			 
                                                                 
	     National Polar-Orbiting Operational		 
	     Environmental Satellite System			 
                                                                 

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GAO-06-776R

June 1, 2006

The Honorable Jeff Sessions Chairman The Honorable Bill Nelson Ranking
Minority Member Subcommittee on Strategic Forces Committee on Armed
Services United States Senate

Subject: Defense Acquisitions: Space System Acquisition Risks and Keys to
Addressing Them

On April 6, 2006, we testified before the subcommittee on the Department
of Defense's (DOD) space acquisitions. In fiscal year 2007, DOD expects to
spend nearly $7 billion to acquire space-based capabilities to support
current military and other government operations as well as to enable DOD
to transform the way it collects and disseminates information, gathers
data on its adversaries, and attacks targets. Despite its growing
investment in space, however, DOD's space system acquisitions have
experienced problems over the past several decades that have driven up
costs by hundreds of millions, even billions, of dollars; stretched
schedules by years; and increased performance risks. In some cases,
capabilities have not been delivered to the warfighter after decades of
development.

Within this context, you requested that we provide additional comments
regarding the need for better program management, space acquisition
policy, and DOD's Space Radar and Transformational Satellite
Communications System acquisitions. Your specific questions and our
answers are discussed below.

Question: What are the top obstacles to achieving program success from the
point of view of program managers?

As part of a 2005 review1 on program management best practices, we
surveyed DOD's major weapon program managers, including some managing
space programs, who cited the following as "top" obstacles to achieving
successful outcomes in an open ended question:

           o  funding instability (about 36 percent),
           o  requirements instability (13 percent),
           o  staffing problems (8 percent),
           o  excessive oversight (7 percent), and
           o  inexperienced leadership (7 percent).

1 GAO, Best Practices: Better Support of Weapon System Program Managers
Needed to Improve Outcomes, GAO-06-110 (Washington, D.C.: Nov. 30, 2005).

Although the majority of respondents to our survey believed that the
initial baselines of their programs were reasonable, a significant group,
about 24 percent, responded that their program parameters were not
reasonable at the start, and 45 program managers responded that their
program had been rebaselined one or more times for cost and schedule
increases. In addition, 18 percent said one or more key technologies fell
below best practice standards for maturity.

Our reviews of space programs are consistent with these views-we have
found technologies to be immature at program start for major space
programs. Further, in delving deeper into the root causes behind these
problems, we have found that competition for funding has incentivized
programs to produce optimistic cost and schedule estimates, over promise
on capability, suppress bad news, and forsake the opportunity to identify
potentially better alternatives. In addition, because DOD starts more
weapons programs than it can afford, it invariably finds itself in the
position of having to shift funds to sustain programs-often to the point
of undermining well-performing programs to pay for poorly performing ones.
We also have found that DOD starts its space programs too early, that is,
before it has assurance that the capabilities it is pursuing can be
achieved within available resources (time, money technology, people, etc.)
and time constraints, and it allows new requirements to be added well into
the acquisition phase, a course of action that can further stretch
technology challenges. This is encouraged by the funding process, as
acquisition programs tend to attract the majority of research,
development, test, and evaluation (RDT&E) dollars. Many officials working
within the space community agreed that these were key underlying causes of
acquisition problems during a review we conducted last year.2 In addition,
officials we spoke with also cited pressures resulting from having a
diverse array of officials and organizations involved with the space
acquisition process, tensions between the science and technology (S&T) and
acquisition communities as to who is better suited to translate technology
concepts into reality, pressures resulting from short tenures among staff
critical to achieving acquisition success, and difficulties in overseeing
contractors.

Question: Do you believe that the Air Force is addressing these obstacles?

The Air Force has recently taken steps to put is Transformational
Satellite Communications System (TSAT) program on a more executable track
by reducing its expectations in the level of sophistication for the first
two satellites so that it can meet its schedule goals. It is also holding
off entering product development of the first increment until critical
technologies are proven. If the Air Force adheres to this commitment for
TSAT and applies it to Space Radar, as it has also informally committed to
do, then it would be addressing some of the obstacles noted above. For
example, it would reduce the risk of funding instability since cost
estimates would be more realistic. In addition, the Air Force has
committed to estimating cost and funding new acquisitions to an 80-percent
confidence level, strengthening systems engineering, and strengthening the
acquisition workforce. And for some specific programs, the Air Force has
applied additional mechanisms to regulate requirements. These actions
could also remove obstacles, if effectively implemented.

2 GAO, Defense Acquisitions: Incentives and Pressures That Drive Problems
Affecting Satellite and Related Acquisitions, GAO-05-570R (Washington,
D.C.: June 23, 2005).

However, as we testified, such actions should be accompanied by an
investment strategy for space, and ultimately DOD's entire weapons
portfolio, to separate wants from needs and to alleviate long-standing
pressures associated with competition within DOD to win funding. DOD could
also instill the best practices it is now embracing into its space
acquisition policy. In addition, we have recommended that DOD, as a whole,
take steps to hold people and programs accountable when best practices are
not pursued. This will require DOD to empower program managers to make
decisions related to funding, staffing, and moving into subsequent phases
and to match program manager tenure with delivery of a product. It may
also require DOD to tailor career paths and performance management systems
to provide incentives for longer tenures. By embracing a model that
incorporates all these elements, DOD can achieve better outcomes for its
space programs. By not doing so, there will still be incentives and
allowances to overpromise capability, underestimate cost and schedule, and
to start programs prematurely, which, in turn, can eventually undo other
improvement efforts.

Question: DOD starts more space and weapons programs than it can afford,
which, according to GAO, "pressures programs to underestimate costs and
over promise capabilities." Can you provide a few examples of this problem
in space programs and [say] if and how the problem is being addressed?

Actual costs for nearly every major space acquisition we review each year
as part of our annual weapon system assessment have greatly exceeded
earlier estimates--a clear indication that programs consistently
underestimate costs. For example, the Space Based Infrared System
(SBIRS)-High cost estimate climbed from about $4 billion as of October
1996 to over $10 billion in September 2005, and costs are expected to
increase further. Estimated costs for the Evolved Expendable Launch
Vehicle (EELV) program have climbed from about $15 billion in October 1998
to $27 billion in August 2005 with 43 fewer launches to be purchased than
anticipated. Estimated costs for the Advanced Extremely High Frequency
Satellite program (AEHF) increased from $5.6 billion as of October 2001 to
$6.2 billion as of August 2005, with quantities decreasing from five to
three satellites. Estimated costs for the National Polar-orbiting
Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) grew from $5.9 billion
in August 2002 to nearly $8 billion in September 2005. Our past reports
have also identified cases where programs have overpromised capabilities.
For example, the Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS)-Low program started
under the assumption that the satellites would be able to detect and track
multiple objects and differentiate a threatening warhead from decoys, even
though that technology challenge was exceedingly high. In fact, the
program was never able to achieve this capability. It was eventually shut
down in the face of cost and schedule overruns that came with addressing
technology challenges. The SBIRS-High program began with the assumption
that there would be four satellites in geosynchronous orbit, but more than
10 years later, DOD plans to reduce the number of satellites it will
procure and still does not have the assurance it needs that the missile
detection capability can be achieved in time to replace the existing
detection system. In addition, DOD has initiated efforts to develop a
parallel competing capability with the SBIRS-High program. Similarly, the
NPOESS program is now considering dropping some of its planned capability
because of technology and design-related challenges.

DOD has been taking actions to improve cost estimating and we are in the
process of assessing these actions. As mentioned above, for example, it
has committed to estimating cost and funding new acquisitions to an
80-percent confidence level. In addition, the Air Force is requiring the
use of independent cost estimates-rather than estimates produced by a
program office or a contractor. It is also committed to strengthening its
cost-estimating capabilities-in terms of people, methodologies, and tools.
In regard to the issue of overpromising capability, the Air Force has
deferred pursuing some of its more ambitious capabilities on its TSAT
program, so that the program can be better positioned to meet its
schedule. We do not know at this point whether it will be doing the same
for its new Space Radar program. As we underscored in our testimony, it is
important that these and other individual actions be made within a
framework of broader, systemic improvements to DOD's overall acquisition
process, the acquisition workforce, and an overall investment strategy.

Question: The second problem is that DOD "starts its space programs too
early, that is, before it is sure that the capabilities it is pursuing can
be achieved within available resources and time constraints." Can you
provide a few examples of this problem in space programs and [indicate] if
and how the problem is being addressed?

Many of our annual reviews of major space acquisitions show that programs
have started with relatively low levels of technology maturity-meaning DOD
does not have assurance that the technologies can work as intended. This
includes, AEHF, NPOESS, SBIRS-High, and SBIRS-Low-now known as the Space
Tracking and Surveillance System. Exceptions include the Navy's Mobile
User Objective System, or MUOS (though the program later added two
additional technologies that did not meet best practices standards for
maturity) and the Global Positioning System Block IIF. At times, we have
found that key sensors to be included in new satellites were not fully
tested, or even prototyped, before being included in a program. In other
cases, technologies used to support the health of the overall satellite,
such as cooling systems, were immature. And in other cases, software needs
were vastly underestimated. In the case of AEHF, technical resources to
support security needs were underestimated.

Many programs we have studied felt the need to start the acquisition
process before such needs were better understood because acquisition
programs tend to attract more funding than science and technology efforts.
In addition, in the case of space, programs have historically attempted to
satisfy all requirements in a single step, regardless of the design
challenge or the maturity of the technologies to achieve the full
capability. While this is partly attributable to a desire to speed
delivery of capability, it has perversely slowed down programs, since
programs were at increased risk of facing costly and disruptive technical
and design problems.

As noted previously, DOD has committed to delay the development of one new
major space program-TSAT-until technology needs are better understood. It
has also committed to deliver new space-based capabilities in an
incremental fashion so that acquisition efforts can be more executable and
the science and technology base can be more engaged in major space
programs. It has not taken such action yet on other new programs, notably
Space Radar, though it has informally committed to. In addition, DOD's
space acquisition policy still allows major acquisitions to begin without
demonstrating that technology can work as intended.

Question: A third issue is that DOD has "allowed new requirements to be
added well into the acquisition phase." I would also add that sometimes
the original requirements may be unrealistic or unaffordable and that this
may be part of the problem. Can you provide a few examples of the
requirements problem in space programs and [indicate] if and how the
problem is being addressed?

Our past reports have pointed to requirements setting problems in the
AEHF, NPOESS, and SBIRS-High programs. In the case of SBIRS-High, we
pointed to problems related to not adequately defining requirements up
front. These were further detailed in subsequent DOD studies, including
those by the SBIRS-High Independent Review Team and the Defense Science
Board. Both noted that the acquisition approach the Air Force was
following, known as Total System Performance Responsibility, placed too
much responsibility on the part of the contractor to negotiate
requirements, and that the process eventually broke down. In the case of
NPOESS, we reported in the early phases of the program that the Air Force
and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration had difficulty
resolving diverging requirements. In the case of AEHF, we reported that
DOD substantially and frequently altered requirements and design in the
early phases of the program. While considered necessary, some changes
increased costs by hundreds of millions of dollars and caused scheduling
delays on a program that DOD was trying to accelerate in order to address
a potential capability gap. DOD has since rejected the acquisition
approaches that led to requirements-setting problems on both SBIRS-High
and AEHF. It has also instituted control mechanisms to regulate
requirements on SBIRS-High. In our testimony, we noted that DOD could take
further steps to strengthen requirements setting by implementing processes
and policies, as needed, which stabilize requirements for acquisitions,
like NPOESS, that are being shared with other agencies.

We have also reported on programs that took on unrealistic or potentially
unaffordable requirements. The SBIRS-Low program's pursuit of
discrimination capability is an older example of such a program. More
recently, we have pointed to affordability and feasibility issues related
to Space Radar and the TSAT programs, which together, have been
preliminarily estimated to cost about $40 billion. Specifically, we have
stated that DOD was planning to start these acquisitions even when many of
their critical technologies were still immature, and it was pursuing a
highly ambitious path in terms of the technology push. Given that these
systems were among the most complex programs ever undertaken for space,
they were being counted on to enable wider DOD transformation efforts, and
DOD was already contending with highly problematic space efforts, we
believed that DOD could not afford to pursue such risky approaches for
TSAT and Space Radar. As noted earlier, DOD has taken steps to ensure it
is pursuing realistic requirements for TSAT, and it has informally
committed to do the same for Space Radar.

Question: Is there a clear definition of each Technology Readiness Level
(TRL) that all of you agree on (GAO and DOD) and that exists in writing
and that clearly applies to space programs?

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) developed the
original ranking and definitions of technology maturity levels. GAO and
DOD agree on the TRL definitions-in its reports, GAO continues to
reference the TRL scale for assessing critical technologies from DOD's
Interim Defense Acquisition Guidebook (app 6, dated October 30, 2002).
However, for space system acquisitions, GAO and DOD have disagreements on
what the TRLs should be at major decision points. According to our work on
best practices, product development should be initiated after critical
technologies have been incorporated into a system prototype and tested in
an operational environment-meaning the cold-radiated vacuum of space. Our
prior reports have recognized that space systems are uniquely difficult to
test in a true operational environment. However, DOD has found ways to
test sensors and other critical technologies on experimental satellites.
Nonetheless, DOD continues to stand up formal space system acquisitions
too early-before critical technologies have been tested in operational or
relevant environments-that is, before DOD has assurance that the
capabilities it is pursuing can be achieved. This causes DOD to extend
technology invention to its acquisitions, which have reverberating effects
and require large amounts of time and money to fix. In these cases, DOD
points to its National Security Space Acquisition Policy, which allows it
to take such an approach-unlike DOD's acquisition policy for non-space
acquisitions, where TRL 7 (testing in an operational environment) is
preferred before product development is initiated (TRL 6 is required). As
long as GAO continues to base its reviews of space programs on best
practices and DOD continues to use the wide leeway afforded in its space
acquisition policy regarding critical technologies and their maturity
levels to initiate product development, GAO and DOD will continue to have
disagreements in this area.

Question: What is the difference between TRL 6 and 7 and what is the
advantage or disadvantage of being at level 6 or 7 at the [Critical]
Design Review?

The main difference between TRL 6 and 7 is the testing environment. For
TRL 6, the testing environment would be a laboratory or a simulated
operational environment, and for TRL 7, the testing environment would be
an operational environment-meaning in space. According to GAO's work on
best practices, achieving a high level of technology maturity at program
start is an important indicator of whether available resources in terms of
knowledge, time, money and capacity match the customer's requirements. In
addition, the key measure for a successful critical design review (CDR) is
when 90-percent of the design drawings have been submitted to
manufacturing. When space programs reach CDR and TRLs are below 6, it is
unlikely that a high percentage of design drawings would have been
released to manufacturing, thereby increasing program risk at this
juncture. Another key point to remember is that CDR is the point at which
programs begin ordering long-lead parts to build the first few satellites.
This investment in hardware is at risk if the technologies do not prove
out to work as intended. Achieving TRL 6 or 7 by CDR is a matter of
risk-if the critical technologies in question are supremely important and
have no space-based heritage, then it is warranted to test the
technologies in space before proceeding through CDR. For TSAT, some
critical technologies have a heritage of being tested or operated in
space, and they are all slated to be at TRL 6 at the time of CDR-an
approach that GAO did not fault.

Question: The Transformational Communications Satellite program, though
still very early in the process, appears to have begun to adopt some of
the recommendations of the GAO as well as the Young Panel and is focusing
on technology maturity. Integration of the satellite appears to be the
next difficult step for the TSAT program. What plans are in place to
ensure successful integration?

The TSAT program is taking several steps to ensure its integration efforts
are successful. First, according to program officials, the plan is to
demonstrate critical technologies at TRL 6 when key integration tests are
conducted in fiscal year 2007. Second, the program plans to use the
results of its first round of integration tests to refine the testing to
be conducted during a second round of more comprehensive integration
testing. Third, the program is conducting a series of independent tests to
verify results of contractor testing as it incrementally builds toward the
two main integration tests facing the program-tests of the Next Generation
Processor Router and Optical Standards Validation Suite. The program
office plans to have knowledge on how these two major subcomponents work
to reduce risk by uncovering technical problems before awarding the space
segment contract for the design and assembly of the satellites. Finally,
the TSAT program also plans to assess the results of the main integration
tests before making a decision to enter the production development phase.

Question: What actions would you recommend to the programs managers to
ensure successful integration?

According to GAO's prior work on best practices, leading firms ensure that
(1) the right validation events-tests, simulations, and other means for
demonstrating product maturity-occur at the right times, (2) each
validation event produces quality results, and (3) the knowledge gained
from an event is used to improve the product. Fully disclosing the results
of tests (from low-level brass board tests to the main integration tests)
and documenting the actions taken to address shortcomings further
validates product knowledge. It is imperative that problems are fully
addressed before rushing efforts to begin the next round of testing. It is
also important that program managers use the test and evaluation
parameters originally established, and any changes should be fully
disclosed along with the reasons for doing so. Finally, the program
manager needs assurance that all testing that has been done is reflective
of the capabilities that the program is trying to deliver. Rigorous and
sophisticated testing early and often will uncover problems when they are
relatively easy and inexpensive to fix. Waiting too long to fully stress
and test components will put the program in a risky position.

   

In preparing answers to your questions, we relied on our prior work on
DOD's space acquisition policy, best practices in weapon system
acquisitions, and our reviews of specific space acquisitions as well as
DOD studies. In addition, for specific space systems development and cost
growth, we relied on our annual assessment of selected major weapon
programs. Because we relied on previously issued work, we did not obtain
comments from DOD on a draft of this letter. We conducted our work from
April 2006 through May 2006 in accordance with generally accepted
government auditing standards.

We are sending copies of this letter to the Secretaries of Defense and the
Air Force and interested congressional committees. We will also make
copies available to others upon request. In addition, the report will be
available at no charge on the GAO web site at http://www.gao.gov.

If you or your staff have any questions concerning these comments, please
contact me at (202) 512-4841.

Sincerely yours,

Cristina Chaplain

Acting Director

Acquisition and Sourcing Management

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