Nuclear Weapons: NNSA Needs to Refine and More Effectively Manage
Its New Approach for Assessing and Certifying Nuclear Weapons	 
(03-FEB-06, GAO-06-261).					 
                                                                 
In 1992, the United States began a unilateral moratorium on the  
testing of nuclear weapons. To compensate for the lack of	 
testing, the Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security	 
Administration (NNSA) developed the Stockpile Stewardship Program
to assess and certify the safety and reliability of the nation's 
nuclear stockpile without nuclear testing. In 2001, NNSA's	 
weapons laboratories began developing what is intended to be a	 
common framework for a new methodology for assessing and	 
certifying the safety and reliability of the nuclear stockpile	 
without nuclear testing. GAO was asked to evaluate (1) the new	 
methodology NNSA is developing and (2) NNSA's management of the  
implementation of this new methodology. 			 
-------------------------Indexing Terms------------------------- 
REPORTNUM:   GAO-06-261 					        
    ACCNO:   A46337						        
  TITLE:     Nuclear Weapons: NNSA Needs to Refine and More	      
Effectively Manage Its New Approach for Assessing and Certifying 
Nuclear Weapons 						 
     DATE:   02/03/2006 
  SUBJECT:   Evaluation methods 				 
	     Laboratories					 
	     Nuclear weapons					 
	     Performance measures				 
	     Program evaluation 				 
	     Program management 				 
	     Research and development				 
	     Research programs					 
	     Safety regulation					 
	     Safety standards					 
	     Weapons research and development			 
	     DOE Stockpile Stewardship Program			 

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GAO-06-261

     

     * Report to the Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, Committee on Armed
       Services, House of Representatives
          * February 2006
     * NUCLEAR WEAPONS
          * NNSA Needs to Refine and More Effectively Manage Its New Approach
            for Assessing and Certifying Nuclear Weapons
     * Contents
          * Results in Brief
          * Background
          * The QMU Methodology Is Highly Promising but Still in the Early
            Stages of Development
               * NNSA Has Endorsed QMU as a New, Common Methodology for
                 Assessing and Certifying Stockpile Safety and Reliability
               * The Development and Implementation of QMU Is at an Early
                 Stage and Important Differences Exist Among the Weapons
                 Laboratories in their Application of QMU
          * NNSA's Management of the Development and Implementation of QMU Is
            Deficient in Four Key Areas
               * Campaign Planning Documents Do Not Adequately Integrate the
                 Scientific Activities Supporting QMU
               * NNSA Does Not Have a Clear, Consistent Set of QMU-Related
                 Milestones
               * NNSA Has Not Established Formal Requirements for Conducting
                 Technical Reviews or Certifying the Completion of
                 QMU-Related Milestones
               * NNSA Has Not Established Adequate Measures to Determine the
                 Laboratories' Performance in Developing and Implementing QMU
          * Conclusions
          * Recommendations for Executive Action
          * Agency Comments and Our Evaluation
     * Comments from the National Nuclear Security Administration
     * GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments

Report to the Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, Committee on Armed
Services, House of Representatives

February 2006

NUCLEAR WEAPONS

NNSA Needs to Refine and More Effectively Manage Its New Approach for
Assessing and Certifying Nuclear Weapons

Contents

Tables

February 3, 2006Letter

The Honorable Terry Everett Chairman The Honorable Silvestre Reyes Ranking
Minority Member Subcommittee on Strategic Forces Committee on Armed
Services House of Representatives

In 1992, the United States began a unilateral moratorium on the testing of
nuclear weapons. Prior to the moratorium, underground nuclear testing was
a critical component of the evaluation and certification of the
performance of a nuclear weapon. Confidence in the continued performance
of stockpiled weapons relied heavily on the expert judgment of weapon
designers who had significant experience with successful nuclear tests. In
addition, the training of new weapon designers depended on continued
nuclear testing. In 1993, the Department of Energy (DOE), at the direction
of the President and the Congress, established the Stockpile Stewardship
Program to ensure the preservation of the United States' core intellectual
and technical competencies in nuclear weapons without testing.1 The
National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), a separately organized
agency within DOE, is now responsible for carrying out the Stockpile
Stewardship Program, which includes activities associated with the
research, design, development, simulation, modeling, and nonnuclear
testing of nuclear weapons. The three nuclear weapons design
laboratories-Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) in California,
Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) in New Mexico, and Sandia National
Laboratories (SNL) in California and New Mexico-use the results of these
activities to annually assess the safety and reliability of the nation's
nuclear weapons stockpile and to certify to the President that the
resumption of underground nuclear weapons testing is not needed.

When the moratorium began in 1992, DOE (and subsequently NNSA) faced
several challenges in fulfilling its new mission of stockpile stewardship.
For example, since both expected and unexpected changes occur as the
nuclear stockpile ages, NNSA has become more concerned with gaining a
detailed understanding of how such changes might affect the safety and
reliability of stockpiled weapons. However, unlike the rest of a nuclear
weapon, the nuclear explosive package-which contains the primary and the
secondary2-cannot be tested simply by evaluating individual components.
Specifically, because the operation of the nuclear explosive package is
highly integrated, nonlinear, occurs during a very short period of time,
and reaches extreme temperatures and pressures, there are portions of the
nuclear explosive package that cannot be tested outside of a nuclear
explosion. In addition, although the United States conducted about 1,000
nuclear weapons tests prior to the moratorium, only a few tests were
designed to collect data on uncertainties associated with a particular
part of the nuclear explosive package. As a result, much of the scientific
basis for the examination of an exploding nuclear weapon must be
extrapolated from other phenomena. Finally, since nuclear testing is no
longer available to train new weapons designers, NNSA and the weapons
laboratories are faced with the need to develop a rigorous, transparent,
and explainable approach to all aspects of the weapon design process,
including the assessment and certification of the performance of nuclear
weapons.

To address these challenges, in 1999, DOE established 18 programs-which it
referred to as "campaigns"-six of which were intended to develop the
scientific knowledge, tools, and methods required to provide confidence in
the assessment and certification of the safety and reliability of the
nuclear stockpile in the absence of nuclear testing. These scientific
campaigns include the (1) Primary Assessment Technologies (Primary), (2)
Secondary Assessment Technologies (Secondary), (3) Advanced Simulation and
Computing (ASC), (4) Advanced Radiography, (5) Dynamic Materials
Properties, and (6) Inertial Confinement Fusion and High Yield (ICF)
campaigns. In particular, the Primary and Secondary campaigns are designed
to analyze and understand the different scientific phenomena that occur in
the primary and secondary stages of a nuclear weapon during detonation. As
such, the Primary and Secondary campaigns are intended to set the
requirements for the computer models and experimental data provided by the
other campaigns that are needed to assess and certify the safety and
reliability of nuclear weapons.

While the campaign structure brought increased organization to the
scientific research conducted across the weapons complex, NNSA still
lacked a coherent strategy for relating the scientific research conducted
by the weapons laboratories to the needs of the nuclear stockpile and the
Stockpile Stewardship Program. Consequently, in 2001, LLNL and LANL began
developing what is intended to be a common framework for a new methodology
for assessing and certifying the safety and reliability of warheads in the
nuclear stockpile in the absence of nuclear testing.

The Stockpile Stewardship Program is now over 10 years old, NNSA's
campaign structure is in its sixth year, and 4 years have passed since
LLNL and LANL began their effort to develop a new assessment and
certification methodology. As the weapons in the nuclear stockpile
continue to age, and as more experienced weapon designers and other
scientists and technicians retire, NNSA is faced with increased urgency in
meeting the goals of the Stockpile Stewardship Program. Furthermore, NNSA
has recently created an effort, known as the Reliable Replacement Warhead
(RRW) program, to study a new approach to maintaining nuclear warheads
over the long term. The RRW program would redesign weapon components to be
easier to manufacture, maintain, dismantle, and certify without nuclear
testing, potentially allowing NNSA to transition to a smaller, more
efficient weapons complex. NNSA's ability to successfully manage these
efforts will have a dramatic impact on the future of the U.S. nuclear
stockpile and, ultimately, will affect the President's decision of whether
a return to nuclear testing is required to maintain confidence in the
safety and reliability of the stockpile.

In this context, you asked us to evaluate (1) the new methodology NNSA is
developing for assessing and certifying the safety and reliability of the
nuclear stockpile in the absence of nuclear testing and (2) NNSA's
management of the implementation of this methodology.

To evaluate the new methodology NNSA is developing for assessing and
certifying the safety and reliability of the nuclear stockpile in the
absence of nuclear testing, we reviewed relevant policy and planning
documents from NNSA and the three weapons laboratories, including
implementation plans and program plans for the six scientific campaigns.
We focused our work principally on the Primary and Secondary campaigns
because the primary and secondary are the key components of the nuclear
explosive package and because the Primary and Secondary campaigns are
intended to set the requirements for the experimental data and computer
models needed to assess and certify the performance of nuclear weapons. We
also reviewed relevant reports, including those from NNSA's Office of
Defense

Programs Science Council, the MITRE Corporation's JASON panel,3 University
of California review committees for LANL and LLNL, and the Strategic
Advisory Group Stockpile Assessment Team for U.S. Strategic Command. In
addition, we interviewed officials from NNSA headquarters and site
offices, as well as contractors who operate NNSA sites. Our primary source
of information was NNSA's Office of Defense Programs. We also met with
officials at LANL, LLNL, and SNL. Finally, we interviewed nuclear weapons
experts, senior scientists, and other relevant officials outside of NNSA
and the laboratories, including members of NNSA's Office of Defense
Programs Science Council, the JASON panel, University of California review
committees for LANL and LLNL, the Strategic Advisory Group Stockpile
Assessment Team for U.S. Strategic Command, and the Deputy Assistant to
the Secretary of Defense (Nuclear Matters) for the Department of Defense.

To evaluate NNSA's management of the implementation of its new methodology
to assess and certify the safety and reliability of nuclear weapons in the
absence of nuclear testing, we reviewed relevant NNSA policy, planning,
and evaluation documents, including the Office of Defense Program's
Program Management Manual, campaign program and implementation plans,
contractor performance evaluation plans and reports, and internal reviews
of NNSA management. We also reviewed contractor planning and evaluation
documents, including LANL, LLNL, and SNL performance evaluation plans and
reports. Finally, we met with campaign managers and other officials at
NNSA headquarters and site offices, LANL, LLNL, and SNL. We performed our
work between August 2004 and December 2005 in accordance with generally
accepted government auditing standards.

Results in Brief

NNSA has endorsed the use of the "quantification of margins and
uncertainties" (QMU) methodology as its principal method for assessing and
certifying the safety and reliability of the existing nuclear stockpile in
the absence of nuclear testing. The QMU methodology focuses on creating a
"watch list" of factors that, in the judgment of nuclear weapon experts,
are the most critical to the operation and performance of a nuclear
weapon. Starting in 2001, LANL and LLNL officials began developing QMU,
which they described as a common methodology for quantifying how close
each critical factor is to the point at which it would fail to perform as
designed (i.e., the margin to failure), as well as quantifying the
uncertainty that exists in calculating the margin, in order to ensure that
the margin is sufficiently greater than the uncertainty. According to NNSA
and laboratory officials, the weapons laboratories intend to use their
calculations of margins and uncertainties to more effectively target their
resources to either increasing the margin in a nuclear weapon or reducing
the uncertainties associated with calculating the margin. In addition,
they said that QMU will be vital to certifying any redesigned weapons,
such as those envisioned by the RRW program.

NNSA and laboratory officials told us that they have made progress in
applying the principles of QMU to the certification and assessment of
nuclear warheads in the stockpile. However, QMU is still in its early
stages of development, and important differences exist among the three
laboratories in their application of QMU. To date, NNSA has commissioned
two technical reviews of the implementation of QMU at the weapons
laboratories. While strongly supporting QMU, the reviews found that the
development and implementation of QMU was still in its early stages. For
example, one review stated that, in the course of its work, it became
evident that there were a variety of differing and sometimes diverging
views of what QMU really was and how it was working in practice. The
reviews recommended that NNSA take steps to further define the technical
details supporting the implementation of QMU and integrate the activities
of the three weapons laboratories in implementing QMU. However, NNSA and
the weapons laboratories have not fully implemented these recommendations.
Beyond the issues raised in the two reports, we also found differences in
the understanding and application of QMU among the three laboratories. For
example, LLNL and LANL officials told us that the QMU methodology only
applies to the nuclear explosive package and not to the nonnuclear
components that control the use, arming, and firing of the nuclear
warhead. However, SNL officials told us that they have been applying their
own version of QMU to nonnuclear components for a long time. In addition,
we found that while LLNL and LANL both agree on the fundamental tenets of
QMU at a high level, their application of the QMU methodology differs in
some important respects. Specifically, LLNL and LANL are pursuing
different approaches to calculating and combining uncertainties. While
there will be methodological differences among the laboratories in the
detailed application of QMU to specific weapon systems, it is
fundamentally important that these differences be understood and, if need
be, reconciled, to ensure that QMU achieves the goal of the common
methodology NNSA has stated it needs to support the continued assessment
of the existing stockpile or the certification of redesigned nuclear
components under the RRW program.

NNSA relies on its Primary and Secondary campaigns to manage the
development and implementation of QMU. According to NNSA policies,
campaign managers at NNSA headquarters are responsible for developing
campaign plans and high-level milestones, overseeing the execution of
these plans, and providing input to the evaluation of the performance of
the weapons laboratories. However, NNSA's management of these processes is
deficient in four key areas. First, the planning documents that NNSA has
established for the Primary and Secondary campaigns do not adequately
integrate the scientific research currently conducted that supports the
development and implementation of QMU. Specifically, a significant portion
of the scientific research that is relevant to the Primary and Secondary
campaigns, and the implementation of QMU, is funded and carried out by a
variety of campaigns and other programs within the Stockpile Stewardship
Program. Second, NNSA has not developed a clear, consistent set of
milestones to guide the development and implementation of QMU. For
example, while one key campaign plan envisions a two-stage path to
identify and reduce key uncertainties in nuclear weapon performance using
QMU by 2014, the performance measures in NNSA's fiscal year 2006 budget
request call for the completion of QMU by 2010. Third, NNSA has not
established formal requirements for conducting annual, technical reviews
of the implementation of QMU at the three weapons laboratories or for
certifying the completion of QMU-related milestones. Finally, NNSA has not
established adequate performance measures to determine the progress of the
laboratories in developing and implementing QMU. Specifically, NNSA
officials were not able to show how they are able to measure progress
toward current performance targets related to the development and
implementation of QMU (e.g., NNSA's statement that the development and
implementation of QMU was 10 percent complete at the end of fiscal year
2004). As a result of these deficiencies, NNSA cannot fully ensure that it
will be able to meet key deadlines for implementing QMU.

GAO is making five recommendations to the Administrator of NNSA to (1)
ensure that the three weapons laboratories have an agreed upon technical
approach for implementing QMU and (2) improve NNSA's management of the
development and implementation of QMU.

We provided NNSA with a draft of this report for their review and comment.
Overall, NNSA generally agreed that there was a need for an agreed-upon
technical approach for implementing QMU and that NNSA needed to improve
the management of QMU through clearer, long-term milestones and better
integration across the program. However, NNSA stated that QMU had already
been effectively implemented and that we had not given NNSA sufficient
credit for its success. In addition, NNSA raised several issues about our
conclusions and recommendations regarding their management of the QMU
effort. We have modified our report to more fully recognize that QMU is
being used by the laboratories to address stockpile issues and to more
completely characterize its current state of development. NNSA also made
technical clarifications, which we incorporated in this report as
appropriate.

Background

Most modern nuclear warheads contain a nuclear explosive package, which
contains the primary and the secondary, and a set of nonnuclear
components.4 The nuclear detonation of the primary produces energy that
drives the secondary, which produces further nuclear energy of a
militarily significant yield. The nonnuclear components control the use,
arming, and firing of the warhead. All nuclear weapons developed to date
rely on nuclear fission to initiate their explosive release of energy.
Most also rely on nuclear fusion to increase their total energy yield.
Nuclear fission occurs when the nucleus of a heavy, unstable atom (such as
uranium-235) is split into two lighter parts, which releases neutrons and
produces large amounts of energy. Nuclear fusion occurs when the nuclei of
two light atoms (such as deuterium and tritium) are joined, or fused, to
form a heavier atom, with an accompanying release of neutrons and larger
amounts of energy.

The U.S. nuclear stockpile consists of nine weapon types. (See table 1.)
The lifetimes of the weapons currently in the stockpile have been extended
well beyond the minimum life for which they were originally
designed-generally about 20 years-increasing the average age of the
stockpile and, for the first time, leaving NNSA with large numbers of
weapons that are close to 30 years old.

Table 1: Nuclear Weapons in the Enduring Stockpile

                                        

Warhead or  Description      Date of entry into     Laboratory  Military   
bomb mark                         stockpile                      service   
B61 3/4/10 Tactical bomb  1979/1979/1990            LANL, SNL  Air Force   
B61 7/11   Strategic bomb 1985/1996                 LANL, SNL  Air Force   
W62        ICBM warheada  1970                      LLNL, SNL  Air Force   
W76        SLBM warheadb  1978                      LANL, SNL  Navy        
W78        ICBM warheada  1979                      LANL, SNL  Air Force   
W80 0/1    Cruise missile 1984/1982                 LLNL, SNL  Air Force / 
              warhead                                             Navy        
B83 0/1    Strategic bomb 1983/1993                 LLNL, SNL  Air Force   
W87        ICBM warheada  1986                      LLNL, SNL  Air Force   
W88        SLBM warheadb  1989                      LANL, SNL  Navy        

Source: NNSA.

Note: The dates of entry into the enduring nuclear stockpile are based on
when the weapon reached phase 6 of the weapons development and production
cycle. As of 2005, responsibility for the W80 0/1 was transferred from
LANL to LLNL.

aICBM = intercontinental ballistic missile.

bSLBM = submarine launched ballistic missile.

Established in 1993, the Stockpile Stewardship Program faces two main
technical challenges: provide (1) a better scientific understanding of the
basic phenomena associated with nuclear weapons and (2) an improved
capability to predict the impact of aging and remanufactured components on
the safety and reliability of nuclear weapons. Specifically,

o An exploding nuclear weapon creates the highest pressures, greatest
temperatures, and most extreme densities ever made by man on earth, within
some of the shortest times ever measured. When combined, these variables
exist nowhere else in nature. While the United States conducted about
1,000 nuclear weapons tests prior to the moratorium, these tests were
conducted mainly to look at broad indicators of weapon performance (such
as the yield of a weapon) and were often not designed to collect data on
specific properties of nuclear weapons physics. After more than 60 years
of developing nuclear weapons, while many of the physical processes are
well understood and accurately modeled, the United States still does not
possess a set of completely known and expressed laws and equations of
nuclear weapons physics that link the physical event to first principles.

o As nuclear weapons age, a number of physical changes can take place. The
effects of aging are not always gradual, and the potential for unexpected
changes in materials causes significant concerns as to whether weapons
will continue to function properly. Replacing aging components is,
therefore, essential to ensure that the weapon will function as designed.
However, it may be difficult or impossible to ensure that all
specifications for the manufacturing of new components are precisely met,
especially since each weapon was essentially handmade. In addition, some
of the manufacturing process lines used for the original production have
been disassembled.

In 1995, the President established an annual assessment and reporting
requirement designed to help ensure that nuclear weapons remain safe and
reliable without underground testing.5 As part of this requirement, the
three weapons laboratories are required to issue a series of reports and
letters that address the safety, reliability, performance, and military
effectiveness of each weapon type in the stockpile. The letters, submitted
to the Secretary of Energy individually by the laboratory directors,
summarize the results of the assessment reports and, among other things,
express the directors' conclusions regarding whether an underground
nuclear test is needed and the adequacy of various tools and methods
currently in use to evaluate the stockpile.

To address these challenges, in 1999 DOE developed a new three-part
program structure for the Stockpile Stewardship Program that included a
series of campaigns, which DOE defined as technically challenging,
multiyear, multifunctional efforts to develop and maintain the critical
capabilities needed to continue assessing the safety and reliability of
the nuclear stockpile into the foreseeable future without underground
testing. DOE originally created 18 campaigns that were designed to focus
its efforts in science and computing, applied science and engineering, and
production readiness. Six of these campaigns currently focus on the
development and improvement of the scientific knowledge, tools, and
methods required to provide confidence in the assessment and certification
of the safety and reliability of the nuclear stockpile in the absence of
nuclear testing. These six campaigns are as follows:

o The Primary and Secondary campaigns were established to analyze and
understand the different scientific phenomena that occur in the primary
and secondary stages of a nuclear weapon during detonation. As such, the
Primary and Secondary campaigns are intended to support the development
and implementation of the QMU methodology and to set the requirements for
the computers, computer models, and experimental data needed to assess and
certify the performance of nuclear weapons.

o The ASC campaign provides the leading-edge supercomputers and models
that are used to simulate the detonation and performance of nuclear
weapons.

o Two campaigns-Advanced Radiography and Dynamic Materials
Properties-provide data from laboratory experiments to support nuclear
weapons theory and computational modeling. For example, the Advanced
Radiography campaign conducts experiments that measure how stockpile
materials behave when exposed to explosively driven shocks. One of the
major facilities being built to support this campaign is the Dual Axis
Radiographic Hydrodynamic Test Facility at LANL.

o The ICF campaign develops experimental capabilities and conducts
experiments to examine phenomena at high temperature and pressure regimes
that approach but do not equal those occurring in a nuclear weapon. As a
result, scientists currently have to extrapolate from the results of these
experiments to understand similar phenomena in a nuclear weapon. One of
the major facilities being built as part of this campaign is the National
Ignition Facility at LLNL.

The other two program activities associated with the Stockpile Stewardship
Program are "Directed Stockpile Work" and "Readiness in Technical Base and
Facilities." Directed Stockpile Work includes the activities that directly
support specific weapons in the stockpile, such as the Stockpile Life
Extension Program, which employs a standardized approach for planning and
carrying out nuclear weapons refurbishment activities to extend the
operational lives of the weapons in the stockpile well beyond their
original design lives. The life extension for the W87 was completed in
2004, and three other weapon systems-the B61, W76, and W80-are currently
undergoing life extensions. Each life extension program is specific to
that weapon type, with different parts being replaced or refurbished for
each weapon type. Readiness in Technical Base and Facilities includes the
physical infrastructure and operational readiness required to conduct
campaign and Directed Stockpile Work activities across the nuclear weapons
complex. The complex includes the three nuclear weapons design
laboratories (LANL, LLNL, and SNL), the Nevada Test Site, and four
production plants-the Pantex Plant in Texas, the Y-12 Plant in Tennessee,
a portion of the Savannah River Site in South Carolina, and the Kansas
City Plant in Missouri.

From fiscal year 2001 through fiscal year 2005, NNSA spent over $7 billion
on the six scientific campaigns (in inflation-adjusted dollars). (See
table 2.) NNSA has requested almost $7 billion in funding for these
campaigns over the next 5 years. (See table 3.)

Table 2: NNSA Funding for the Scientific Campaigns, Fiscal Years 2001-2005

                                        

Dollars in millions                                               
                         FY 2001  FY 2002  FY 2003  FY 2004  FY 2005    Total 
Primary                 $49.8    $52.4    $48.7    $41.2    $73.4   $265.5 
Secondary                43.7     42.1     49.2     54.6     57.2    246.8 
ASC                     770.9    692.2    799.3    738.9    685.9  3,687.2 
Advanced Radiography     85.7    100.3     74.2     53.5     52.7    366.4 
Dynamic Materials        79.4     80.7     85.2     87.8     74.2    407.3 
Properties                                                        
ICF                     515.7    593.3    518.9    480.1    492.1  2,600.1 
Total                $1,545.2 $1,561.0 $1,575.5 $1,456.1 $1,435.5 $7,573.3 

Source: NNSA.

Note: In constant dollars, base year 2005.

Table 3: NNSA Funding Requests and Projections for the Scientific
Campaigns, Fiscal Years 2006-2010

                                        

Dollars in millions                                               
                         FY 2006  FY 2007  FY 2008  FY 2009  FY 2010    Total 
Primary                 $45.2    $47.5    $48.9    $48.7    $45.6   $235.9 
Secondary                61.3     63.9     65.0     65.0     65.0    320.2 
ASC                     660.8    666.0    666.0    666.0    666.0  3,324.8 
Advanced Radiography     49.5     42.7     39.5     38.7     41.9    212.3 
Dynamic Materials        80.9     85.1     86.5     87.4     87.4    427.3 
Properties                                                        
ICF                     460.4    461.6    461.6    461.6    461.6  2,306.8 
Total                $1,358.1 $1,366.8 $1,367.5 $1,367.4 $1,367.5 $6,827.3 

Source: DOE, FY 2006 Congressional Budget Request, February 2005.

Within NNSA, the Office of Defense Programs is responsible for managing
the campaigns and the Stockpile Stewardship Program in general. Within
this office, two organizations share responsibility for overall management
of the scientific campaigns: the Office of the Assistant Deputy
Administrator for Research, Development, and Simulation and the Office of
the Assistant Deputy Administrator for Inertial Confinement Fusion and the
National Ignition Facility Project. The first office oversees campaign
activities associated with the Primary and Secondary campaigns-as well as
the ASC, Advanced Radiography, and Dynamic Materials Properties
campaigns-with a staff of about 13 people. The second office oversees
activities associated with the ICF campaign with a single staff person.
Actual campaign activities are conducted by scientists and other staff at
the three weapons laboratories. LANL and LLNL conduct activities
associated with the nuclear explosive package, while SNL performs
activities associated with the nonnuclear components that control the use,
arming, and firing of the nuclear warhead.

The QMU Methodology Is Highly Promising but Still in the Early Stages of
Development

NNSA has endorsed the use of a new common methodology, known as the
quantification of margins and uncertainties, or QMU, for assessing and
certifying the safety and reliability of the nuclear stockpile. NNSA and
laboratory officials told us that they have made progress in applying the
principles of QMU to the certification and assessment of nuclear warheads
in the stockpile. However, QMU is still in its early stages of
development, and important differences exist among the three laboratories
in their application of QMU. To date, NNSA has commissioned two technical
reviews of the implementation of QMU at the weapons laboratories. While
strongly supporting QMU, the reviews found that the development and
implementation of QMU was still in its early stages. The reviews
recommended that NNSA take steps to further define the technical details
supporting the implementation of QMU and integrate the activities of the
three weapons laboratories in implementing QMU. However, NNSA and the
weapons laboratories have not fully implemented these recommendations.
Beyond the issues raised in the two reports, we also found differences in
the understanding and application of QMU among the three laboratories.

NNSA Has Endorsed QMU as a New, Common Methodology for Assessing and
Certifying Stockpile Safety and Reliability

When the Primary and Secondary campaigns were established in 1999, they
brought some organization and overall goals to the scientific research
conducted across the weapons complex. For example, as we noted in April
2005, the Primary campaign set an initial goal in the 2005 to 2010 time
frame for certifying the performance of the primary of a nuclear weapon to
within a stated yield level.6 However, according to senior NNSA officials,
NNSA still lacked a coherent strategy for relating the scientific work
conducted by the weapons laboratories under the campaigns to the needs of
the nuclear stockpile and the overall Stockpile Stewardship Program. This
view was echoed by a NNSA advisory committee report, which stated in 2002
that the process used by the weapons laboratories to certify the safety
and reliability of nuclear weapons was ill defined and unevenly applied,
leading to major delays and inefficiencies in programs.7

Starting in 2001, LLNL and LANL began developing what is intended to be a
common methodology for assessing and certifying the performance and safety
of nuclear weapons in the absence of nuclear testing. In 2003, the
associate directors for nuclear weapons at LLNL and LANL published a white
paper-entitled "National Certification Methodology for the Nuclear Weapon
Stockpile"-that described this new methodology, which they referred to as
the quantification of margins and uncertainties or QMU. According to the
white paper, QMU is based on an adaptation of standard engineering
practices and lends itself to the development of "rigorous, quantitative,
and explicit criteria for judging the robustness of weapon system and
component performance at a detailed level." Moreover, the quantitative
results of this process would enable NNSA and the weapons laboratories to
set priorities for their activities and thereby make rational decisions
about allocating program resources to the nuclear stockpile.

The process envisaged in the white paper focuses on creating a "watch
list" of factors that, in the judgment of nuclear weapons experts, are the
most critical to the operation and performance of a nuclear weapon. These
factors include key operating characteristics and components of the
nuclear weapon. For each identified, critical factor leading to a nuclear
explosion, nuclear weapons experts would define performance metrics. These
performance metrics would represent the experts' best judgment of what
constitutes acceptable behavior-i.e., the range of acceptable values for a
critical function to successfully occur or for a critical component to
function properly-as well as what constitutes unacceptable behavior or
failure. To use an analogy, consider the operation of a gasoline engine.
Some of the events critical to the operation of the engine would include
the opening and closing of valves, the firing of the spark plugs, and the
ignition of the fuel in each cylinder. Relevant performance metrics for
the ignition of fuel in a cylinder would include information on the
condition of the spark plugs (e.g., whether they are corroded) and the
fuel/air mixture in the cylinder.

Once nuclear experts have identified the relevant performance metrics for
each critical factor, according to the 2003 white paper, the goal of QMU
is to quantify these metrics. Specifically, the QMU methodology seeks to
quantify (1) how close each critical factor is to the point at which it
would fail to perform as designed (i.e., the performance margin or the
margin to failure) and (2) the uncertainty in calculating the margin.
According to the white paper, the weapons laboratories would be able to
use their calculated values of margins and uncertainties as a way to
assess their confidence in the performance of a nuclear weapon. That is,
the laboratories would establish a "confidence ratio" for each critical
factor -they would divide their calculated value for the margin ("M") by
their calculations of the associated uncertainty ("U") and arrive at a
single number ("M/U"). According to the white paper, the weapons
laboratories would only have confidence in the performance of a nuclear
weapon if the margin "significantly" exceeds uncertainty for all critical
issues. However, the white paper did not define what the term
"significantly" meant.

In a broad range of key planning and management documents that have
followed the issuance of the white paper, NNSA and the weapons
laboratories have endorsed the use of the QMU methodology as the principal
tool for assessing and certifying the safety and reliability of the
nuclear stockpile in the absence of nuclear testing. For example, in its
fiscal year 2006 implementation plan for the Primary campaign, NNSA stated
as a strategic objective that it needs to develop the capabilities and
understanding necessary to apply QMU as the assessment and certification
methodology for the nuclear explosive package. In addition, in its fiscal
year 2006 budget request, NNSA selected its progress toward the
development and implementation of QMU as one of its major performance
indicators. Finally, in the plans that NNSA uses to evaluate the
performance of LANL and LLNL, NNSA has established an overall objective
for LANL and LLNL to assess and certify the safety and reliability of
nuclear weapons using a common QMU methodology.

Officials at NNSA and the weapons laboratories have also stated that QMU
will be vital to certifying any weapon redesigns, such as are envisioned
by the RRW program. For example, senior NNSA officials told us that the
Stockpile Stewardship Program will not be sustainable if it only involves
the continued refurbishment in perpetuity of existing weapons in the
current nuclear stockpile. They stated that the accumulation of small
changes over the extended lifetime of the current nuclear stockpile will
result in increasing levels of uncertainty about its performance. If NNSA
moves forward with the RRW program, according to NNSA documents and
officials, the future goal of the weapons program will be to use QMU to
replace existing stockpile weapons with an RRW whose safety and
reliability could be assured with the highest confidence, without nuclear
testing, for as long as the United States requires nuclear forces.

The Development and Implementation of QMU Is at an Early Stage and
Important Differences Exist Among the Weapons Laboratories in their
Application of QMU

According to NNSA and laboratory officials, the weapons laboratories have
made progress in applying the principles of QMU to the certification of
life extension programs and to the annual stockpile assessment process.
For example, LLNL officials told us that they are applying QMU to the
assessment of the W80, which is currently undergoing a life extension.8
They said that, in applying the QMU methodology, they tend to focus their
efforts on identifying credible "failure modes," which are based on
observable problems, such as might be caused by the redesign of components
in a nuclear weapon, changes to the manufacturing process for components,
or the performance of a nuclear weapon under aged conditions. They said
that, for the W80 life extension program, they have developed a list of
failure modes and quantified the margins and uncertainties associated with
these failure modes. Based on their calculations, they said that they have
increased their confidence in the performance of the W80.

Similarly, LANL officials told us that they are applying QMU to the W76,
which is also currently undergoing a life extension and is scheduled to
finish its first production unit in 2007. They said that, in applying the
QMU methodology, they tend to focus their efforts on defining "performance
gates," which are based on a number of critical points during the
explosion of a nuclear weapon that separate the nuclear explosion into
natural stages of operation. The performance gates identify the
characteristics that a nuclear weapon must have at a particular time
during its operation to meet its performance requirements (e.g., to reach
its expected yield). LANL officials told us that they have developed a
list of performance gates for the W76 life extension program and are
beginning to quantify the margins and uncertainties associated with these
performance gates.

Despite this progress, we found that QMU is still in its early stages of
development and that important differences exist among the weapons
laboratories in their application of QMU. To date, NNSA has commissioned
two technical reviews of the implementation of QMU at the weapons
laboratories. The first review was conducted by NNSA's Office of Defense
Programs Science Council (Science Council)-which advises NNSA on
scientific matters across a range of activities, including those
associated with the scientific campaigns-and resulted in a March 2004
report.9 The second review was conducted by the MITRE Corporation's JASON
panel and resulted in a February 2005 report.10 Both reports endorsed the
use of QMU by the weapons laboratories and listed several potential
benefits that QMU could bring to the nuclear weapons program. For example,
according to the Science Council report, QMU will serve an important role
in training the next generation of nuclear weapon designers and will
quantify and increase NNSA's confidence in the assessment and
certification of the nuclear stockpile. According to the JASON report, QMU
could become a useful management tool for directing investments in a given
weapon system where they would be most effective in increasing confidence,
as required by the life extension programs. In addition, the JASON report
described how LANL and LLNL officials had identified potential failure
modes in several weapon systems and calculated the associated margins and
uncertainties. The report noted that, for most of these failure modes, the
margin for success was large compared with the uncertainty in the
performance.

However, according to both the Science Council and the JASON reports, the
development and implementation of QMU is still in its early stages. For
example, the JASON report described QMU as highly promising but
unfinished, incomplete and evolving, and in the early stages of
development. Moreover, the chair of the JASON panel on QMU told us in June
2005 that, during the course of his review, members of the JASON panel
found that QMU was not mature enough to assess its reliability or
usefulness. The reports also stated that the weapons laboratories have not
fully developed or agreed upon the technical details supporting the
implementation and application of QMU. For example, the JASON report
stated that, in the course of its review, it became evident that there
were a variety of differing and sometimes diverging reviews of what QMU
really was and how it was working in practice. As an example, the report
stated that some of the scientists, designers, and engineers at LANL and
LLNL saw the role of expert judgment as an integral part of the QMU
process, while others did not. In discussions with the weapons
laboratories about the two reports, LANL officials told us that they
believed that the details of QMU as a formal methodology are still
evolving, while LLNL officials stated that QMU was "embryonic" and not
fully developed.

While supporting QMU, the two reports noted that the weapons laboratories
face challenges in successfully implementing a coherent and credible
analytical method based on the QMU methodology. For example, in its 2004
report, the Science Council stated that, in its view, the QMU methodology
is based on the following core assumptions:

o Computer simulations can accurately predict the behavior of a complex
nuclear explosive system as a function of time.

o It is sufficient for the assessment of the performance of a nuclear
weapon to examine the simulation of the time evolution of a nuclear
explosive system at a number of discrete time intervals and to determine
whether the behavior of the system at each interval is within acceptable
bounds.

o The laboratories' determinations of acceptable behavior can be made
quantitatively-that is, they will make a quantitative estimate of a
system's margins and uncertainties.

o Given these quantitative measures of the margins and uncertainties, it
is possible to calculate the probability (or confidence level) that the
nuclear explosive system will perform as desired.

However, the Science Council's report noted that extraordinary degrees of
complexity are involved in a rational implementation of QMU that are only
beginning to be understood. For example, in order for the QMU methodology
to have validity, it must sufficiently identify all critical failure
modes, critical events, and associated performance metrics. However, as
described earlier, the operation of an exploding nuclear weapon is highly
integrated and nonlinear, occurs during a very short period of time, and
reaches extreme temperatures and pressures. In addition, the United States
does not possess a set of completely known and expressed laws and
equations of nuclear weapons physics. Given these complexities, it will be
difficult to demonstrate the successful implementation of QMU, according
to the report. In addition, the Science Council stated that it was not
presented with any evidence that there exists a method-even in
principle-for calculating an overall probability that a nuclear explosive
package will perform as designed from the set of quantitative margins and
uncertainties at each time interval.

To address these and other issues, the two reports recommended that NNSA
take steps to further define the technical details supporting the
implementation of QMU and to integrate the activities of the three weapons
laboratories in implementing QMU. For example, the 2004 Science Council
report recommended that NNSA direct the associate directors for nuclear
weapons at LANL and LLNL to undertake a major effort to define the details
of QMU. In particular, the report recommended that a trilaboratory team be
charged with defining a common language for QMU and identifying the
important performance gates, failure modes, and other criteria in the QMU
approach. The report stated that this agreed-upon "reference" set could
then be used to support all analyses of stockpile issues. In addition, the
report recommended that NNSA consider establishing annual or semiannual
workshops for the three weapons laboratories to improve the
identification, study, and prioritization of potential failure modes and
other factors that are critical to the operation and performance of
nuclear weapons.

Similarly, the 2005 JASON panel report noted that the meaning and
implications of QMU are currently unclear. To rectify this problem, the
report recommended that the associate directors for nuclear weapons at
LANL and LLNL write a new, and authoritative, paper defining QMU and
submit it to NNSA. Furthermore, the report recommended that the
laboratories establish a formal process to (1) identify all failure modes
and performance gates associated with QMU, using the same methodology for
all weapon systems, and (2) establish better relationships between the
concepts of failure modes and performance gates for all weapon systems in
the stockpile.

However, NNSA and laboratory officials have not fully implemented these
recommendations, particularly the recommendations of the Science Council.
For example, while LLNL and LANL officials are drafting a new "white
paper" on QMU that attempts to clarify some fundamental tenets of the
methodology, officials from SNL are not involved in the drafting of this
paper. In addition, NNSA has not required the three weapons laboratories
to hold regular meetings or workshops to improve the identification,
prioritization, and integration of failure modes, performance gates, and
other critical factors.

According to NNSA's Assistant Deputy Administrator for Research,
Development, and Simulation, NNSA has not fully implemented the
recommendations of the Science Council's report partly because the report
was intended more to give NNSA a sense of the status of the implementation
of QMU than it was to provide recommendations. For example, the 2004
report states that the "friendly review," as the report is referred to by
NNSA, would not have budget implications and that the report's findings
and recommendations would be reported only to the senior management of the
weapons laboratories. As a result, the Assistant Deputy Administrator told
us that he had referred the recommendations to the directors of the
weapons laboratories and told them to implement the recommendations as
they saw fit.

Furthermore, LLNL and LANL officials disagreed with some of the statements
in the Science Council report and stressed that, in using QMU, they do not
attempt to assign an overall probability that the nuclear explosive
package will perform as desired. That is, they do not attempt to add up
calculations of margins and uncertainties for all the critical factors to
arrive at a single estimate of margin and uncertainty, or a single
confidence ratio, for the entire nuclear explosive package. Instead, they
said that they focus on ensuring that the margin for each identified
critical factor in the explosion of a nuclear weapon is greater than the
uncertainty. However, they said that, for a given critical factor, they do
combine various calculations of individual uncertainties that contribute
to the total amount of uncertainty for that factor.

In addition, in addressing comments in the JASON report, LLNL and LANL
officials stressed that QMU has always relied, and will continue to rely
heavily, on the judgment of nuclear weapons experts. For example, LLNL
officials told us that since there is no single definition of what
constitutes a threshold for failure, they use expert judgment to decide
what to put on their list of failure modes. They also said that the QMU
methodology provides a way to make the entire annual assessment and
certification process more transparent to peer review. Similarly, LANL
officials said that they use expert judgment extensively in establishing
performance metrics and threshold values for their performance gates. They
said that expert judgment will always be a part of the scientific process
and a part of QMU.

Beyond the issues raised in the two reports, we found that there are
differences in the understanding and application of QMU among the three
laboratories. For example, the three laboratories do not agree about the
application of QMU to areas outside of the nuclear explosive package.
Specifically, LLNL officials told us that the QMU methodology, as
currently developed, only applies to the nuclear explosive package and not
to the nonnuclear components that control the use, arming, and firing of
the nuclear warhead. According to LLNL and LANL officials, SNL scientists
can run hundreds of experiments to test their components and, therefore,
can use normal statistical analysis in certifying the performance of
nonnuclear components. As a result, according to LLNL and LANL officials,
SNL does not have to cope with real uncertainty and does not "do" QMU.
Furthermore, according to LLNL officials, SNL has chosen not to
participate in the development of QMU with LLNL and LANL.

However, SNL officials told us that while some of the nonnuclear
components are testable to a degree, SNL is as challenged as the other two
weapons laboratories in certifying the performance of their systems
without actual testing. For example, SNL officials said that they simply
do not have enough money to perform enough tests on all of their
nonnuclear components to be able to rely completely on statistical
analysis to meet their safety performance levels. In addition, SNL
scientists are not able to test their components under the conditions of a
nuclear explosion but are still required to certify the performance of the
components under these conditions. Thus, SNL officials told us that they
had been using their own version of QMU for a long time.

SNL officials told us that they define QMU as a way to make risk-informed
decisions about the effect of variabilities and uncertainties on the
performance of a nuclear weapon, including the nonnuclear components that
control the use, arming, and firing of the nuclear warhead. Moreover, they
said that this kind of risk-informed approach is not unique to the nuclear
weapons laboratories and is used extensively in areas such as nuclear
reactor safety. However, they told us that they have been left out in the
development of QMU by the two other weapons laboratories. Specifically,
they said that while SNL scientists have worked with other scientists at
LANL and LLNL at a "grass roots" level, there has only been limited
cooperation and dialogue between upper-level management at the three
laboratories concerning the development and implementation of QMU.

In addition, we found that while LLNL and LANL both agree on the
fundamental tenets of QMU at a high level, their application of the QMU
methodology differs in some important respects. For example, LLNL and LANL
officials told us that, at a detailed level, the two laboratories are
pursuing different approaches to calculating and combining uncertainties.
For the W80 life extension program, LLNL officials showed us how they
combined calculations of individual uncertainties that contributed to the
total uncertainty for a key failure mode of the primary-the amount of
primary yield necessary to drive the secondary. However, they said that
the scientific support for their method for combining individual
calculations of uncertainty was limited, and they stated that they are
pursuing a variety of more sophisticated analyses to improve their current
approach.

Moreover, the two laboratories are taking a different approach to
generating a confidence ratio for each critical factor, as described in
the 2003 white paper on QMU. For example, for the W80 life extension
program, LLNL officials showed us how they calculated a single confidence
ratio for a key failure mode of the primary, based on their calculations
of margin and uncertainty. They said that the weapon systems for which
they are responsible have a lot of margin built into them, and they feel
comfortable generating this number. In contrast, in discussions with LANL
officials about the W76 life extension program, LANL officials told us
that they prefer not to calculate a single confidence ratio for a
performance gate, partly because they are concerned that their customers
(e.g., the Department of Defense) might think that the QMU methodology is
more formal than it is currently.

In commenting on the differences between the two laboratories, NNSA
officials stated that the two laboratories are pursuing complementary
approaches, and that these differences are part of the rationale for a
national policy decision to maintain two nuclear design laboratories. In
addition, they stated that the confidence in the correctness of scientific
research is improved by achieving the same answer through multiple
approaches. LLNL officials also made similar comments, stating that the
nation will benefit from some amount of independence between the
laboratories to assure that the best methodology for assessing the
stockpile in the absence of nuclear testing is achieved.

NNSA's Management of the Development and Implementation of QMU Is
Deficient in Four Key Areas

NNSA relies on its Primary and Secondary campaigns to manage the
development and implementation of QMU. According to NNSA policies,
campaign managers at NNSA headquarters are responsible for developing
campaign plans and high-level milestones, overseeing the execution of
these plans, and providing input to the evaluation of the performance of
the weapons laboratories. However, NNSA's management of these processes is
deficient in four key areas. First, the planning documents that NNSA has
established for the Primary and Secondary campaigns do not adequately
integrate the scientific research currently conducted that supports the
development and implementation of QMU. Second, NNSA has not developed a
clear, consistent set of milestones to guide the development and
implementation of QMU. Third, NNSA has not established formal requirements
for conducting annual, technical reviews of the implementation of QMU or
for certifying the completion of QMU-related milestones. Finally, NNSA has
not established adequate performance measures to determine the progress of
the laboratories in developing and implementing QMU.

Campaign Planning Documents Do Not Adequately Integrate the Scientific
Activities Supporting QMU

As part of its planning structure, NNSA requires the use of program and
implementation plans to set requirements and manage resources for the
campaigns and other programs associated with the Stockpile Stewardship
Program. Program plans are strategic in nature and identify the long-term
goals, high-level milestones, and resources needed to support a particular
program over a 7-year period, while implementation plans establish
performance expectations for the program and each participating site for
the current year of execution. According to NNSA policies, program and
implementation plans should flow from and interact with each other using a
set of cascading goals and requirements.

NNSA has established a single program plan, which it calls the "Science
campaign program plan," that encompasses the Primary and the Secondary
campaigns, as well as two other campaigns-Advanced Radiography and Dynamic
Materials Properties. NNSA has also established separate implementation
plans for each of these campaigns, including the Primary and Secondary
campaigns. According to NNSA, it relies on these plans-and in particular
the plans related to the Primary and Secondary campaigns-to manage the
development and implementation of QMU, as well as to determine the
requirements for the experimental data and computer modeling needed to
analyze and understand the different scientific phenomena that occur in a
nuclear weapon during detonation.

However, the current Primary and Secondary campaign plans do not contain a
comprehensive, integrated list of the relevant scientific research being
conducted across the weapons complex to support the development and
implementation of QMU. For example, according to the NNSA campaign manager
for the Primary campaign, he had to hold a workshop in 2005 with officials
from the weapons laboratories in order to catalogue all of the scientific
activities that are currently performed under the heading of "primary
assessment" regardless of the NNSA funding source. According to this
official, the existing Primary campaign implementation plan does not
provide the integration across NNSA programs that is needed to achieve the
goals of the Primary campaign and to develop and implement QMU.

According to NNSA officials, the lack of integration has occurred in large
part because a significant portion of the scientific research that is
relevant to the Primary and Secondary campaigns is funded and carried out
by different campaigns and other programs. Specifically, different NNSA
campaign managers use different campaign planning documents to plan and
oversee research and funding for activities that are directly relevant to
the Primary and Secondary campaigns and the development and implementation
of QMU. For example, the ASC campaign provides the supercomputing
capability that the weapons laboratories use to simulate and predict the
behavior of an exploding nuclear weapon. Moreover, the weapons
laboratories rely on ASC supercomputers to quantify their uncertainties
with respect to the accuracy of these computer simulations-a key component
in the implementation of QMU. As a result, the ASC campaign plans and
funds activities that are critical to the development and implementation
of QMU.

To address this problem, according to NNSA officials, NNSA is taking steps
to establish better relationships among the campaign plans. For example,
NNSA is currently drafting a new plan-which it calls the Primary
Assessment Plan-in an attempt to better coordinate the activities covered
under the separate program and implementation plans. The draft plan
outlines high-level research priorities, time lines, and proposed
milestones necessary to support (1) NNSA's responsibilities for the
current stockpile, (2) primary physics design for the development of an
RRW, and (3) certification of an RRW in the 2012 time frame and a second
RRW in the 2018 time frame. According to NNSA officials, they expect to
finalize this plan by the third quarter of fiscal year 2006. In addition,
they expect to have a similar plan for the Secondary campaign finalized by
December 2006 and are considering combining both plans into a full-system
assessment plan. According to one NNSA official responsible for the
Primary and Secondary campaigns, NNSA will revise the existing campaign
program and implementation plans to be consistent with the Primary
Assessment Plan.

More fundamentally, some nuclear weapons experts have suggested that
NNSA's planning structure should be reorganized to better reflect the use
of QMU as NNSA's main strategy for assessing and certifying the
performance of nuclear weapons. For example, the chair of the LLNL Defense
and Nuclear Technologies Director's Review Committee-which conducts
technical reviews of LLNL's nuclear weapons activities for the University
of California-told us that the current campaign structure has become a
series of "stovepipes" that NNSA uses to manage stockpile stewardship. He
said that in order for NNSA to realize its long-term goals for
implementing QMU, NNSA is going to have to reorganize itself around
something that he called an "uncertainty spreadsheet" for each element of
a weapon's performance (e.g., implosion of the primary, transfer of energy
to the secondary, etc.), leading to the weapon's yield. He said that the
laboratories should develop a spreadsheet for each weapon in the stockpile
that (1) identifies the major sources of uncertainty at each critical
event in their assessment of the weapon's performance and (2) relates the
laboratory's scientific activities and milestones to these identified
sources of uncertainty. He said that the development and use of these
spreadsheets would essentially capture the intent of the scientific
campaigns and make them unnecessary.

NNSA Does Not Have a Clear, Consistent Set of QMU-Related Milestones

NNSA has established a number of milestones that relate to the development
and implementation of QMU. Within the Science campaign program plan, NNSA
has established a series of high-level milestones, which it calls
"level-1" milestones. According to NNSA policies, level-1 milestones
should be sufficient enough to allow strategic integration between sites
involved in the campaigns and between programs in NNSA. Within the
implementation plans for the Primary and Secondary campaigns, NNSA has
established a number of lower-level milestones, which it calls "level-2"
milestones, which NNSA campaign managers use to track major activities for
the current year of execution. The level-1 milestones related to QMU are
shown in table 4, and the level-2 milestones related to QMU for the
Primary campaign are shown in table 5.

Table 4: NNSA Level-1 Milestones Related to the Development and
Implementation of QMU

                                        

Due date Milestone number              Milestone description               
FY2007   M46              Publish documented plan to reduce major sources  
                             of uncertainty. (Cycle I)                        
FY2010   M47              Accounting for simulation and experimental       
                             uncertainties, assess ability to reproduce the   
                             full underground test data sets for a            
                             representative group of nuclear tests with a     
                             consistent set of models.                        
FY2011   M48              Publish documented plan to reduce the major      
                             sources of uncertainty assessed in fiscal year   
                             2010. (Cycle II)                                 
FY2014   M20              Accounting for simulation and experimental       
                             uncertainties, reassess ability to reproduce the 
                             full underground test data sets for a            
                             representative group of nuclear tests with a     
                             consistent set of models.                        

Source: NNSA, FY2006 Science campaign program plan.

Table 5: Primary Campaign Level-2 Milestones Related to the Development
and Implementation of QMU

                                        

Due date                       Milestone description                       
FY2004   Analyze specific underground test events in the support of QMU.   
FY2004   Develop QMU certification logic to support the W76.               
FY2004   Develop QMU certification logic to support the W88.               
FY2005   Analyze specific underground test events in the support of QMU.   
FY2005   Predict primary performance and identify major sources of         
            uncertainty for the W-76 LEP. Quantify these sources where        
            possible or develop requirements of a plan to do so.              
FY2005   Develop probabilistic tools and methods to combine various        
            sources of uncertainty for primary performance.                   

Source: NNSA Primary campaign implementation plans, fiscal years 2004 and
2005.

According to NNSA officials, the level-1 milestones in table 4 represent a
two-stage path to systematically identify uncertainties and reduce them
through analyzing past underground test results, developing new
experimental capabilities, and performing new experiments to understand
the relevant physical processes. According to these level-1 milestones,
NNSA expects to complete the second stage or "cycle" of this process by
fiscal year 2014 (i.e., milestone M20), at which time NNSA will have
sufficiently reduced major sources of uncertainties and will have
confidence in its ability to predict the performance of nuclear weapons in
the absence of nuclear testing.

However, we identified several problems with the NNSA milestones related
to the development and implementation of QMU. Specifically, the level-1
milestones in the Science campaign program plan have the following
problems:

o The milestones are not well-defined and never explicitly mention QMU.
According to NNSA officials responsible for overseeing the Primary
campaign, these milestones are too qualitative and too far in the future
to enable NNSA to effectively plan for and oversee the implementation of
QMU. They described these milestones as "fuzzy" and said that they need to
be better defined. However, NNSA officials also stated that these
milestones are not just for QMU but for the entire Science campaign, of
which QMU is only a part.

o The milestones conflict with the performance measures shown in other
important NNSA management documents. Specifically, while the Science
campaign program plan envisions a two-stage path to identify and reduce
key uncertainties related to nuclear weapon operations using QMU by 2014,
the performance measures in NNSA's fiscal year 2006 budget request and in
Appendix A of the Science campaign program plan call for the completion of
QMU by 2010.

o The milestones have not been integrated with other QMU-related level-1
milestones in other planning documents. For example, the current ASC
campaign program plan contains a series of level-1 milestones for
completing the certification of several weapon systems-including the B61,
W80, W76, and W88-with quantified margins and uncertainties by the end of
fiscal year 2007. However, these milestones do not appear in and are not
referenced by the Science campaign program plan. Moreover, the ASC
campaign manager told us that, until recently, he was not aware of the
existence of the level-1 milestones for implementing QMU that are
contained in the Science campaign program plan.

In addition, we found that neither the Science campaign program plan nor
the Primary campaign implementation plan describe how the level-2
milestones on QMU in the Primary campaign implementation plan are related
to the level-1 milestones on QMU in the Science campaign program plan.
Consequently, it is unclear how the achievement of specific level-2
milestones-such as the development of probabilistic tools and methods to
combine various sources of uncertainty for primary performance-will result
in the achievement of level-1 milestones for the implementation of QMU or
how NNSA expects to certify several major nuclear weapon systems using QMU
before the QMU methodology is fully developed and implemented.

NNSA, as well as laboratory officials, agreed that there are weaknesses
with the current QMU milestones. According to NNSA officials, when NNSA
established the current tiered structure for campaign milestones in 2003,
the different tiers of milestones served different purposes and,
therefore, were never well-integrated. For example, NNSA officials said
that the level-1 milestones were originally created to reflect measures
that were deemed to be important to senior NNSA officials, while level-2
milestones were created to be used by NNSA campaign managers to perform
more technical oversight of the weapons laboratories. Furthermore,
according to NNSA officials, the current level-2 milestones are only
representative of campaign activities conducted by the weapons
laboratories. That is, the level-2 milestones were never designed to cover
the entire scope of work being conducted by the weapons laboratories and
are, therefore, not comprehensive in scope.

To address these problems, according to NNSA officials, NNSA is taking
steps to develop better milestones to track the implementation of the QMU
methodology. For example, in the draft Primary Assessment Plan, NNSA has
established 19 "high-level" milestones that cover the time period from
fiscal year 2006 to fiscal year 2018. According to these draft milestones,
by fiscal year 2010, NNSA expects to "complete the experimental work and
methodology development needed to demonstrate the ability of primary
certification tools to support certification of existing stockpile system
and RRW." In addition, NNSA expects to certify a RRW in fiscal year 2012
and a second RRW in fiscal year 2018.

NNSA Has Not Established Formal Requirements for Conducting Technical
Reviews or Certifying the Completion of QMU-Related Milestones

According to NNSA policies, campaign managers are required to track the
status of level-1 and level-2 milestones and provide routine, formal
reports on the status of their programs. For example, campaign managers
are required to track, modify, and score the status of level-1 and level-2
milestones through the use of an Internet-based application called the
Milestone Reporting Tool. On a quarterly basis, campaign managers assign
one of four possible scores for each milestone listed in the application:
(1) "blue" for completed milestones, (2) "green" for milestones that are
on track to be finished by the end of the fiscal year, (3) "yellow" for
milestones that may not be completed by the end of the fiscal year, and
(4) "red" for milestones that will not be completed by the end of the
fiscal year. At quarterly program review meetings, campaign managers brief
senior-level NNSA officials on the status of major milestones, along with
cost and expenditure data for their programs. In addition, campaign
managers are responsible for conducting technical reviews of the campaigns
for which they are responsible, at least annually, to ensure that campaign
activities are being executed properly and that campaign milestones are
being completed.

However, NNSA campaign managers have not met all of the NNSA requirements
needed to effectively oversee the Primary and Secondary campaigns. For
example, we found that the campaign managers for the Primary and Secondary
campaigns have not established formal requirements for conducting annual,
technical reviews of the implementation of QMU at the three weapons
laboratories. Moreover, these officials have not established requirements
for certifying the completion of level-2 milestones that relate to QMU.
They could not provide us with documentation showing the specific
activities or outcomes that they expected from the weapons laboratories in
order to certify that the laboratories had completed the level-2
milestones for QMU. Instead, they relied more on ad hoc reviews of
campaign activities and level-2 milestones as part of their oversight
activities for their campaigns. According to the Primary campaign manager,
the officials at the weapons laboratories are the principal managers of
campaign activities. As a result, he views his role as more of a "sponsor"
for his program and, therefore, does not require any written reports or
evidence from the laboratories to certify that they have completed
specific milestones.

In contrast, we found that the ASC campaign manager has established formal
requirements for a variety of reoccurring technical reviews of activities
associated with the ASC campaign. Specifically, the ASC campaign relies on
semiannual reviews conducted by the ASC Predictive Science Committee-which
provides an independent, technical review of the status of level-2
milestones-as well as on annual "principal investigators" meetings that
provide a technical review of every program element within the ASC
campaign. The ASC campaign manager told us that he relies on these
technical reviews to oversee program activities because the quarterly
program review meetings are not meant to help him manage his program but
are really a way for senior-level NNSA officials to stay informed.

In addition, the ASC campaign manager has established detailed, formal
requirements for certifying the completion of level-2 milestones for the
ASC campaign. Specifically, the fiscal year 2006 implementation plan for
the ASC campaign contains a detailed description of what NNSA expects from
the completion of each level-2 milestone, including a description of
completion criteria, the method by which NNSA will certify the completion
of the milestone, and an assessment of the risk level associated with the
completion of the milestone. The ASC campaign manager told us that, when
NNSA officials created the level-2 milestones for the campaigns in 2003,
the milestones were really just "sentences" and lacked the detailed
criteria that would enable NNSA managers to adequately track and document
the completion of major milestones. As a result, the ASC campaign has made
a major effort in recent years to develop detailed, formal requirements to
support the completion of ASC level-2 milestones.

NNSA Has Not Established Adequate Measures to Determine the Laboratories'
Performance in Developing and Implementing QMU

NNSA uses performance measurement data to inform resource decisions,
improve the management and delivery of products and services, and justify
budget requests. According to NNSA requirements, performance measurement
data should explain in clear, concise, meaningful, and measurable terms
what program officials expect to accomplish for a specific funding level
over a fixed period of time. In addition, performance measurement data
should include annual targets that describe specific outputs that can be
measured, audited, and substantiated by the detailed technical milestones
contained in documentation such as campaign implementation plans.

With respect to QMU, NNSA has established an overall annual performance
target to measure the cumulative percentage of progress toward the
development and implementation of the QMU methodology. Specifically, in
its fiscal year 2006 budget request to the Congress, NNSA stated that it
expects to complete the development and implementation of QMU by 2010 as
follows:

o 25 percent complete by the end of fiscal year 2005,

o 40 percent complete by the end of fiscal year 2006,

o 55 percent complete by the end of fiscal year 2007,

o 70 percent complete by the end of fiscal year 2008,

o 85 percent complete by the end of fiscal year 2009, and

o 100 percent complete by the end of fiscal year 2010.

According to NNSA, it had progressed 10 percent toward its target of
completing QMU by the end of fiscal year 2004. However, NNSA officials
could not document how they can measure progress toward the performance
target for developing and implementing QMU. Moreover, NNSA officials could
not explain how the 2010 overall performance target for the completion and
implementation of QMU is related to the level-1 milestones for QMU in the
Science campaign program plan, which describes a two-stage process to
identify and reduce key uncertainties in nuclear weapon performance using
QMU by 2014. According to one NNSA official responsible for overseeing the
Primary campaign, NNSA created this annual performance target because the
Office of Management and Budget requires agencies to express some of their
annual performance targets in percentage terms. However, this official
said the actual percentages are not very meaningful, and he does not have
any specific criteria for how to measure progress to justify the use of
the percentages in the budget request.

NNSA has also established broad performance measures to evaluate the
performance of LANL and LLNL. Specifically, in its performance evaluation
plans for LANL and LLNL for fiscal year 2006, NNSA has established the
following three performance measures:

o Use progress toward quantifying margins and uncertainty, and experience
in application, to further refine and document the QMU methodology.

o Demonstrate application of a common assessment methodology (i.e., QMU)
in major warhead assessments and the certification of Life Extension
Program warheads.

o Complete the annual assessment of the safety, reliability, and
performance of all warhead types in the stockpile, including reaching
conclusions on whether nuclear testing is required to resolve any issues.

However, the plan that NNSA uses to evaluate the performance of SNL does
not contain any performance measures or targets specifically related to
QMU, and the performance evaluation plans for LANL and LLNL do not contain
any annual targets that can be measured and linked to the specific
performance measures related to QMU. Instead, the plans state that NNSA
will rely on LLNL and LANL officials to develop the relevant targets and
related dates for each performance measure, as well as to correlate the
level-1 and level-2 milestones with these measures. When asked why these
plans do not meet NNSA's own requirements, NNSA officials said that they
have not included specific annual performance targets in the plans because
to do so would make it harder for them to finalize the plans and adjust to
changes in NNSA's budget. However, they said that NNSA is planning on
implementing more stringent plans that will include annual performance
targets when the next contract for LANL and LLNL is developed. In
addition, NNSA officials told us that they recognize the need to develop
performance measures related to QMU for SNL and anticipate implementing
these changes in the fiscal year 2007 performance evaluation plan.

NNSA officials told us that they have used more specific measures, such as
the completion of level-2 milestones, in their assessment of the weapons
laboratories' performance since fiscal year 2004. However, we also found
problems with the way NNSA has assessed the performance of the weapons
laboratories in implementing QMU. For example, in NNSA's annual
performance appraisal of LANL for fiscal year 2004, NNSA states that LANL
had completed 75 percent of the work required to develop "QMU logic" for
the W76 life extension by the end of fiscal year 2004. However, NNSA
officials could not document how they are able to measure progress toward
the development and implementation of QMU logic for the W76 life
extension. Again, an NNSA official responsible for overseeing the Primary
campaign told us that the actual percentages are not very meaningful, and
that he did not have any specific criteria for how to measure progress to
justify the use of the percentage in the appraisal.

In a recent report, we recognized the difficulties of developing useful
results-oriented performance measures for programs such as those geared
toward research and development programs.11 For programs that can take
years to observe program results, it can be difficult to identify
performance measures that will provide information on the annual progress
they are making toward achieving program results. However, we also
recognize that such efforts have the potential to provide important
information to decision makers.

NNSA officials told us that they recognize the need for developing
appropriate measures to ensure that adequate progress is being maintained
toward achieving the goals and milestones of the campaigns. However,
according to NNSA, very few products of the scientific campaigns involve
the repetition of specific operations whose costs can be monitored
effectively as a measure of performance. As a result, the best measure of
progress for the scientific campaigns is through scientific review by
qualified technical peers at appropriate points in the program. However,
NNSA has not established any performance measures or targets for
implementing QMU that require periodic scientific peer reviews or define
what is meant by "appropriate" points in the program.

Conclusions

Faced with an aging nuclear stockpile, as well as an aging workforce, NNSA
needs a methodologically rigorous, transparent, and explainable approach
for how it will continue to assess and certify the safety and reliability
of the nation's nuclear weapons stockpile, now and into the foreseeable
future, without underground testing. After over a decade of conducting
stockpile stewardship, NNSA's selection of QMU as its methodology for
assessment and certification represents a positive step toward a
methodologically rigorous, transparent, and explainable approach that can
be carried out by a new cadre of weapons designers. However, important
technical and management details must be resolved before NNSA can say with
certainty that it has a sound and agreed upon approach.

First, NNSA must take steps to ensure that all three nuclear weapons
laboratories-not just LANL and LLNL-are in agreement about how QMU is to
be defined and applied. While we recognize that there will be
methodological differences between LANL and LLNL in the detailed
application of QMU to specific weapon systems, we believe that it is
fundamentally important that these differences be understood and, if need
be, reconciled, to ensure that QMU achieves the goal of a common
methodology with rigorous, quantitative, and explicit criteria, as
envisioned by the original 2003 white paper on QMU. More importantly, we
believe that SNL has an important role in the development and application
of QMU to the entire warhead, and we find the continuing disagreement over
the application of QMU to areas outside of the nuclear explosive package
to be disconcerting. There have been several recommendations calling for a
new, technical paper defining QMU, as well as the establishment of regular
forums to further develop the QMU methodology and reconcile any
differences in approach. We believe the NNSA needs to fully implement
these recommendations.

Second, NNSA has not made effective use of its current planning and
program management structure to ensure that all of the research needed to
support QMU is integrated and that scarce scientific resources are being
used efficiently. We believe that NNSA must establish an integrated
management approach involving planning, oversight, and evaluation methods
that are all clearly linked to the overall goal of the development and
application of QMU. In particular, we believe that NNSA needs clear,
consistent, and realistic milestones and regular, technical reviews of the
development of QMU in order to ensure sound progress. Finally, while we
support the development of QMU and believe it must be effectively managed,
we also believe it is important to recognize and acknowledge that the
development and application of QMU, especially the complexities involved
in analyzing and combining uncertainties related to potential failure
modes and performance margins, represents a daunting research challenge
that may not be achievable in the time constraints created by an aging
nuclear stockpile.

Recommendations for Executive Action

To ensure that the weapons laboratories will have the proper tools in
place to support the continued assessment of the existing stockpile or the
certification of redesigned nuclear components under the RRW program, we
recommend that the Administrator of NNSA take the following two actions:

o Require the three weapons laboratories to formally document an agreed
upon, technical description of the QMU methodology that clearly recognizes
and reconciles any methodological differences.

o Establish a formal requirement for periodic collaboration between the
three weapons laboratories to increase their mutual understanding of the
development and implementation of QMU.

To ensure that NNSA can more effectively manage the development and
implementation of QMU, we recommend that the Administrator of NNSA take
the following three actions:

o Develop an integrated plan for implementing QMU that contains (1) clear,
consistent, and realistic milestones for the development and
implementation of QMU across the weapons complex and (2) formal
requirements for certifying the completion of these milestones.

o Establish a formal requirement for conducting annual, technical reviews
of the scientific research conducted by the weapons laboratories that
supports the development and implementation of QMU.

o Revise the performance evaluation plans for the three weapons
laboratories so that they contain annual performance targets that can be
measured and linked to specific milestones related to QMU.

Agency Comments and Our Evaluation

We provided NNSA with a draft of this report for their review and comment.
Overall, NNSA agreed that there was a need for an agreed-upon technical
approach for implementing QMU and that NNSA needed to improve the
management of QMU through clearer, long-term milestones and better
integration across the program. However, NNSA stated that QMU had already
been effectively implemented and that we had not given NNSA sufficient
credit for its success. In addition, NNSA raised several issues about our
conclusions and recommendations regarding their management of the QMU
effort. The complete text of NNSA's comments on our draft report is
presented in appendix I. NNSA also made technical clarifications, which we
incorporated in this report as appropriate.

With respect to whether QMU has already been effectively implemented,
during the course of our work, LANL and LLNL officials showed us examples
of where they used the QMU methodology to examine specific issues
associated with the stockpile. At the same time, during our discussions
with laboratory officials, as well as with the Chairs of the JASON panel
on QMU, the Office of Defense Programs Science Counsel, and the Strategic
Advisory Group Stockpile Assessment Team of the U.S. Strategic Command,
there was general agreement that the application of the QMU methodology
was still in the early stages of development. As NNSA pointed out in its
letter commenting on our report, to implement QMU, the weapons
laboratories need to make a number of improvements, including techniques
for combining different kinds of uncertainties, as well as developing
better models for a variety of complex processes that occur during a
nuclear weapon explosion. In addition, the successful implementation of
QMU will continue to rely on the expert judgment and the successful
completion of major scientific facilities such as the National Ignition
Facility. We have modified our report to more fully recognize that QMU is
being used by the laboratories to address stockpile issues and to more
completely characterize its current state of development. At the same
time, however, because QMU is still under development, we continue to
believe that NNSA needs to make more effective use of its current planning
and program management structure.

NNSA raised several specific concerns about our conclusions and
recommendations. First, NNSA disagreed with our conclusion and associated
recommendations that NNSA take steps to ensure that all three nuclear
weapons laboratories are in agreement about how QMU is to be defined and
applied. NNSA stated that we overemphasized the differences between LANL
and LLNL in implementing QMU and that, according to NNSA, LANL and LLNL
have a "common enough" agreement on QMU to go forward with its
implementation. Moreover, NNSA stated that our recommendations blur very
clear distinctions between SNL and the two nuclear design labs. According
to NNSA, QMU is applied to issues regarding the nuclear explosive package,
which is the mission of LANL and LLNL.

While we believe that some of the technical differences between the
laboratories remain significant, we have revised our report to more
accurately reflect the nature of the differences between LANL and LLNL.
With respect to SNL, we would again point out that SNL officials are still
required to certify the performance of nuclear weapon components under the
conditions of a nuclear explosion and, thus, use similar elements of the
QMU methodology. Therefore, we continue to believe that all three
laboratories, as well as NNSA, would benefit from efforts to more formally
document the QMU methodology and regularly meet to increase their mutual
understanding. As evidence of the benefits of this approach, we would note
that LLNL and LANL are currently developing a revised "white paper" on
QMU, and that in discussions with one of the two authors, he agreed that
inclusion of SNL in the development of the draft white paper could be
beneficial.

Second, NNSA made several comments with respect to our recommendation that
NNSA develop an integrated plan for implementing QMU that contains clear,
consistent, and realistic milestones. For example, NNSA stated that they
expect to demonstrate the success of the implementation of QMU and the
scientific campaigns by the performance of a scientifically defensible QMU
analysis for each required certification problem. In addition, NNSA stated
that the 2010 budget target and the 2014 milestone were developed for
different purposes and measure progress at different times. According to
NNSA, the 2010 target describes developing QMU to the point that it can be
applied to certification of a system (e.g., the W88) without underground
testing, while the 2014 milestone is intended to be for the entire Science
campaign effort.

However, as we state in our report, and as acknowledged by NNSA officials
responsible for the Primary and Secondary campaigns, there continue to be
problems with the milestones that NNSA has established for implementing
QMU. Among these problems is the fact that these milestones are not
well-defined and conflict with other performance measures that NNSA has
established for QMU. Moreover, in its comments on our report, NNSA agreed
that better integration and connectivity of milestones between various
program elements would improve the communications of the importance of
program goals and improve the formality of coordination of program
activities, "which is currently accomplished in an informal and less
visible manner." Given this acknowledgment by NNSA, we continue to believe
that an integrated plan for implementing QMU, rather than NNSA's current
ad hoc approach, is warranted.

Third, NNSA made several comments regarding our recommendation that NNSA
establish a formal requirement for conducting annual, technical reviews of
the scientific research conducted by the weapons laboratories that
supports the development and implementation of QMU. NNSA stated that it
believes the ad hoc  reviews it conducts, such as the JASON review,
provide sufficient information on scientific achievements, difficulties,
and required redirection to manage these programs effectively. As a
result, NNSA stated that it has not selected a single review process to
look at overall success in the implementation of QMU but expects to
continue to rely on ad hoc reviews.

We agree that reviews, such as the JASON review, are helpful, and we
relied heavily on the JASON review, as well as other reviews as part of
our analysis. However, as we point out in the report, the issue is that
the campaign managers for the Primary and Secondary campaigns do not meet
all of NNSA's own requirements for providing effective oversight, which
include the establishment of formal requirements for conducting technical
reviews of campaign activities. Therefore, we believe that NNSA needs to
take steps to implement its own policies. In addition, we believe that the
ASC campaign provides a good role model for how the Primary and Secondary
campaigns should be managed.

Finally, NNSA made several comments with respect to our recommendation for
NNSA to revise the performance evaluation plans for the laboratories so
that they contain annual performance targets that can be measured and
linked to specific milestones related to QMU. Specifically, NNSA stated
that the implementation of QMU is an area where it is difficult to
establish a meaningful metric. According to NNSA, since QMU is implicitly
evaluated in every review of the components of the science campaign, NNSA
does not believe it is necessary to formally state an annual QMU
requirement. However, as we point out in the report, the current
performance evaluation plans for LANL and LLNL do not meet NNSA's own
requirements for the inclusion of annual performance targets that can be
measured and linked to the specific performance measures related to QMU.
More fundamentally, since NNSA has placed such emphasis on the development
and implementation of QMU in the years ahead, we continue to believe that
NNSA needs to develop more meaningful criteria for assessing the
laboratories' progress in developing and implementing QMU.

We are sending copies of this report to the Administrator, NNSA; the
Director of the Office of Management and Budget; and appropriate
congressional committees. We also will make copies available to others
upon request. In addition, the report will be available at no charge on
the GAO Web site at http://www.gao.gov.

If you or your staff have any questions about this report or need
additional information, please contact me at (202) 512-3841 or
[email protected] . Contact points for our Offices of Congressional
Relations or Public Affairs may be found on the last page of this report.
GAO staff who made major contributions to this report are listed in
appendix II.

Gene Aloise Director, Natural Resources and Environment

Comments from the National Nuclear Security Administration Appendix I

GAO Contact and Staff Acknowledgments Appendix II

Gene Aloise (202) 512-3841

In addition to the individual named above, James Noel, Assistant Director;
Jason Holliday; Keith Rhodes; Peter Ruedel; and Carol Herrnstadt Shulman
made key contributions to this report.

(360508)

www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt? GAO-06-261 .

To view the full product, including the scope

and methodology, click on the link above.

For more information, contact Gene Aloise at (202) 512-3841 or
[email protected].

Highlights of GAO-06-261 , a report to the Subcommittee on Strategic
Forces, Committee on Armed Services, House of Representatives

February 2006

NUCLEAR WEAPONS

NNSA Needs to Refine and More Effectively Manage Its New Approach for
Assessing and Certifying Nuclear Weapons

In 1992, the United States began a unilateral moratorium on the testing of
nuclear weapons. To compensate for the lack of testing, the Department of
Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) developed the
Stockpile Stewardship Program to assess and certify the safety and
reliability of the nation's nuclear stockpile without nuclear testing. In
2001, NNSA's weapons laboratories began developing what is intended to be
a common framework for a new methodology for assessing and certifying the
safety and reliability of the nuclear stockpile without nuclear testing.
GAO was asked to evaluate (1) the new methodology NNSA is developing and
(2) NNSA's management of the implementation of this new methodology.

What GAO Recommends

GAO is making five recommendations to the Administrator of NNSA to (1)
ensure that the three laboratories have an agreed-upon technical approach
for implementing QMU and (2) improve NNSA's management of the development
and implementation of QMU.

While NNSA raised concerns with some of GAO's recommendations, it agreed
that it needed to better manage QMU's development and implementation. NNSA
also said that GAO had not given it credit for its success in implementing
QMU. GAO clarified its report to address NNSA's concerns.

NNSA has endorsed the use of the "quantification of margins and
uncertainties" (QMU) methodology as its principal method for assessing and
certifying the safety and reliability of the nuclear stockpile. Starting
in 2001, Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and Lawrence Livermore
National Laboratory (LLNL) officials began developing QMU, which focuses
on creating a common "watch list" of factors that are the most critical to
the operation and performance of a nuclear weapon. QMU seeks to quantify
(1) how close each critical factor is to the point at which it would fail
to perform as designed (i.e., the margin to failure) and (2) the
uncertainty that exists in calculating the margin, in order to ensure that
the margin is sufficiently larger than the uncertainty. According to NNSA
and laboratory officials, they intend to use their calculations of margins
and uncertainties to more effectively target their resources, as well as
to certify any redesigned weapons envisioned by the Reliable Replacement
Warhead program.

According to NNSA and weapons laboratory officials, they have made
progress in applying the principles of QMU to the assessment and
certification of nuclear warheads in the stockpile. NNSA has commissioned
two technical reviews of the implementation of QMU. While strongly
supporting QMU, the reviews found that the development and implementation
of QMU was still in its early stages and recommended that NNSA further
define the technical details supporting the implementation of QMU and
integrate the activities of the three weapons laboratories in implementing
QMU. GAO also found important differences in the understanding and
application of QMU among the weapons laboratories. For example, while LLNL
and LANL both agree on the fundamental tenets of QMU at a high level, they
are pursuing different approaches to calculating and combining
uncertainties.

NNSA uses a planning structure that it calls "campaigns" to organize and
fund its scientific research. According to NNSA policies, campaign
managers at NNSA headquarters are responsible for developing plans and
high-level milestones, overseeing the execution of these plans, and
providing input to the evaluation of the performance of the weapons
laboratories. However, NNSA's management of these processes is deficient
in four key areas. First, NNSA's existing plans do not adequately
integrate the scientific research currently conducted across the weapon
complex to support the development and implementation of QMU. Second, NNSA
has not developed a clear, consistent set of milestones to guide the
development and implementation of QMU. Third, NNSA has not established
formal requirements for conducting annual, technical reviews of the
implementation of QMU at the three laboratories or for certifying the
completion of QMU-related milestones. Finally, NNSA has not established
adequate performance measures to determine the progress of the three
laboratories in developing and implementing QMU.
*** End of document. ***