Defense Management: Munitions Requirements and Combatant	 
Commander's Needs Still Require Linkage (12-AUG-05, GAO-05-765R).
                                                                 
In October 2002 we reported that inadequate linkage existed	 
between near-term munitions needs of the combatant commanders and
the purchases made by the military services. The Department of	 
Defense (DOD) concurred with our recommendations and took steps  
to address them by rewriting the overarching DOD Instruction for 
determining munitions requirements. Related to our ongoing work  
on prepositioned stocks, we assessed whether DOD's efforts thus  
far and initiatives planned for the future will ensure the	 
required linkage since successful implementation of operational  
war plans is contingent on the availability of the right mix and 
quantity of munitions. To make our assessment, we obtained and	 
analyzed information from cognizant organizations within DOD,	 
Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS), Headquarters and subordinate units  
of the Military Services, and U.S. Forces Korea (USFK). We	 
conducted our analysis of DOD's munitions requirements process in
accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.
-------------------------Indexing Terms------------------------- 
REPORTNUM:   GAO-05-765R					        
    ACCNO:   A32981						        
  TITLE:     Defense Management: Munitions Requirements and Combatant 
Commander's Needs Still Require Linkage 			 
     DATE:   08/12/2005 
  SUBJECT:   Accountability					 
	     Defense budgets					 
	     Defense procurement				 
	     Military operations				 
	     Munitions						 
	     Policy evaluation					 
	     Risk assessment					 

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GAO-05-765R

United States Government Accountability Office Washington, DC 20548

August 12, 2005

The Honorable Donald H. Rumsfeld The Secretary of Defense

Subject: Defense Management:MunitionsRequirements and Combatant
Commander's Needs Still Require Linkage

Dear Mr. Secretary:

In October 2002 we reported1 that inadequate linkage existed between
near-term munitions needs of the combatant commanders and the purchases
made by the military services. The Department of Defense (DOD) concurred
with our recommendations and took steps to address them by rewriting the
overarching DOD Instruction for determining munitions requirements.2
Related to our ongoing work on prepositioned stocks, we assessed whether
DOD's efforts thus far and initiatives planned for the future will ensure
the required linkage since successful implementation of operational war
plans is contingent on the availability of the right mix and quantity of
munitions. To make our assessment, we obtained and analyzed information
from cognizant organizations within DOD, Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS),
Headquarters and subordinate units of the Military Services, and U.S.
Forces Korea (USFK). We conducted our analysis of DOD's munitions
requirements process in accordance with generally accepted government
auditing standards.

Results in Brief

While the revised DOD Instruction established requirements to create the
needed linkage between the combatant commander's munitions needs and the
military services procurement decisions, limited implementation has been
achieved. The Instruction, which was revised in October 2003, in response
to our recommendation, identified key timeline dates and requirements for
each of the DOD organizations involved in the process. The Instruction was
modified to create a linkage between the combatant commander's munitions
needs and the purchasing decisions of the military services. However, this
linkage did not occur because there has been little, if any, compliance by
DOD organizations with the Instruction's requirements. Our recent
assessment of prepositioned munitions supporting the operational war plan
of USFK revealed that key timeline dates were missed and required
coordination with USFK was not accomplished. For instance, threat reports
developed by the Defense Intelligence Agency that are used to identify key
targets were late. As a result, USFK

1 U.S. General Accounting Office, DefenseManagement:Munitions
Requirementsand Combatant Commanders'Needs Require Linkage,GAO-03-17
(Washington, D.C.: October15, 2002). 2 Department of Defense Instruction
3000.4, DOD Munitions Requirements Process,October 23, 2003.

GAO-05-765R Defense Management

officials told us they had to identify target lists based on dated
information. DOD officials stated that the specific timeline and other
requirements were not met because formal communication links needed to
ensure compliance were not established. The department recognizes that
further changes are needed and is revising the Instruction a second time.
Our review of the current draft Instruction raises two concerns. First,
the draft Instruction does not include additional oversight and control
criteria to ensure compliance by all organizations involved in the
munitions requirement process. Second, the draft Instruction does not
require combatant commander participation in risk assessments performed
prior to and after the Program Objective Memorandum (POM) submission
occurs. Combatant commanders are in the best position to identify the
impact of not having munitions needed to support the operational plan.
Non-compliance by any of the myriad of organizations involved in the
munitions requirements process could result in procurement decisions that
will not support operational war plans and impact the war fighter's
ability to execute them.

Based on our follow-up efforts and analysis, this letter includes
recommendations to ensure that there is adequate linkage between combatant
commanders' munitions needs and the purchases made by the military
services. In commenting on a draft of the letter, DOD concurred with our
recommendations and identified steps that it is taking to implement them.

Background

Our October 2002 report revealed that inadequate linkage existed between
near-term munitions needs of the combatant commanders and the purchases
made by the military services based on computations derived from the
department's munitions requirements process. This disconnect resulted in
the combatant commanders and the services identifying different munitions
needs and, ultimately, in the combatant commanders reporting shortages.
The disconnect occurred because DOD's munitions requirements determination
process did not fully consider the combatant commander's preferences for
munitions and weapon systems to be used against targets identified in
projected scenarios. We recommended that DOD establish a direct link
between the munitions needs of the combatant commanders and the purchasing
decisions made by the military services. In concurring with this report,
DOD stated that that the lack of linkage between the combatant commander's
needs and the requirements established by the military services had been
studied and that a solution would be documented in the next update of the
DOD Instruction 3000.4 in Fiscal Year 2003.

On October 23, 2003, DOD Instruction 3000.4, DOD Munitions Requirements
Process was reissued. The new Instruction identified specific
responsibilities for each organization involved in the Munitions
Requirements Process and identified multiple instances of required
coordination with combatant commanders to ensure a linkage between the
combatant commander's needs and the munitions purchased by the military
services.

Page 2 GAO-05-765R Defense Management

Land Warfare & Munitions Division, Defense Systems, Under Secretary of
Defense for Acquisition, Technology, and Logistics (USD (AT&L) officials
stated that, in November 2004, they convened a conference of the military
services, combatant commanders, and DOD organizations who participate in
the munitions requirements process to determine what had to be done to
establish linkage between the combatant commanders' needs and the
munitions purchased by the military services. This conference resulted in
a decision to, again, revise DOD Instruction 3000.4 to include more
specificity as to when and why combatant commanders must be involved in
the munitions requirements determination process and to more closely align
munitions requirements to combatant commanders' operational war plans.

Inadequate Linkage Continues to Exist

Despite the department's efforts to establish linkage between combatant
commanders' needs and purchasing decisions of the military services,
inadequate linkage continues to exist. During our assessment of
prepositioned munitions supporting the operational war plan of USFK, we
found that specific requirements and timelines established by DOD
Instruction 3000.4, as revised in 2003, were not met by DOD organizations.
We found that not all organizations complied with the Instruction's
requirements in developing the Fiscal Year 2005 munitions budget
submission. For example

o 	The Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) did not coordinate with combatant
commanders prior to developing threat reports. According to USFK
officials, updated intelligence information was not included.

o 	DIA Threat Reports needed by the combatant commanders to produce Phased
Threat Distributions3 (PTD) were late. According to USFK officials, they
had to develop PTD's on prior year threat reports.

o 	Only the Air Force coordinated with USFK prior to modeling munitions
requirements, the other services developed their requirements independent
of USFK involvement.

o 	None of the services coordinated with USFK on the results of their
individual modeling processes prior to development of POM submissions. As
a result, there were no assurances that combatant commander munitions
needs were met.

DOD officials stated that the specific timeline and other requirements
were not met because formal communication links needed to ensure
compliance were not established.

DOD is currently revising the Instruction again. According to DOD
officials, a new element requires combatant commanders to present and
defend operational war plan

3 Phased Threat Distribution allocates targets to each military service
and allied forces where political commitments exist.

Page 3 GAO-05-765R Defense Management

munitions requirements as part of the Current Year Analytic Agenda
Process4. This process, separate and apart from the munitions requirements
process, results in the development of a current year baseline requirement
for munitions needed to support operational war plans. The current year
baseline provides the military services with an early look at what they
should see in the near year PTDs prepared by the combatant commanders as
part of the Munitions Requirements Process. It also provides a level of
coordination between the military services and the combatant commanders in
determining what is needed to support the operational war plan.

While this procedure, as well as other refinements to the Instruction
should result in better linkage between combatant commanders' munitions
needs and the munitions purchased by the military services, we identified
two main concerns: (1) inadequate mechanisms to ensure compliance with
requirements and (2) insufficient combatant commander participation.

We determined that the draft Instruction still assigns responsibility for
ensuring compliance with requirements by all organizations involved in the
munitions requirement process to USD (AT&L). In our discussions with USD
(AT&L) officials, we pointed out that no additional oversight and control
measures have been added to the draft to ensure compliance with the
Instruction's requirements. We believe and JCS and USD (AT&L) officials
agree that without additional oversight and control at a high enough
level, compliance by all organizations to meet the Instruction's
requirements prior to Program Objective Memorandum submission may not
occur.

The draft Instruction also calls for a risk assessment both prior to and
after the Program Objective Memorandum submission occurs. According to DOD
officials, while the military services and JCS representatives participate
in these assessments, combatant commanders are not required to attend.
Both JCS and USD (AT&L) officials agreed with our opinion that the
combatant commanders need to participate in these assessments because they
would be in the best position to identify the impact of not having the
munitions needed to support the operational war plan. In addition, their
participation in these risk assessments could impact military service
procurement decisions and reduce the quantities of munitions shortages
that combatant commanders report through Joint Quarterly Readiness
Reports.

Recommendations for Executive Action

To ensure that there is adequate linkage between combatant commanders'
munitions needs and the purchases made by the military services, we
recommend that you

o 	Direct the incorporation of oversight and control measures into DOD
Instruction 3000.4 to ensure that all organizations involved in the
munitions requirement process fully comply with all requirements.

4 The Current Year Analytical Agenda Process begins with the National
Military Strategy and incorporates the requirements of Contingency
Planning Guidance, Strategic Guidance Summary, the Joint Strategic
Capabilities Plan, Operational Plans, Concept of Operations, and the
Current Forces Database to arrive at Current Year Baselines for Munitions
requirements.

Page 4 GAO-05-765R Defense Management

o 	Direct combatant commander to participate in pre- and post POM risk
assessments.

As you know, 31 U.S.C. 720 requires the head of a federal agency to submit
a written statement of the action taken on our recommendations to the
Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs and the House Committee on
Government Reform not later than 60 days after the date of this letter. A
written statement must also be sent to House and Senate Committees on
appropriations with the agency's first request for appropriations made
more than 60 days after the date of this letter.

Agency Comments and Our Evaluation

In commenting on a written draft of this letter, DOD agreed with our
recommendations and identified steps that it is taking to implement them.
DOD's comments are reprinted in the enclosure.

In commenting on our recommendation to direct the incorporation of
oversight and control into DOD Instruction 3000.4, DOD stated that
incorporation of oversight and control measures will help ensure that all
Military Services follow strict guidelines for munitions requirements
determination and validation. Additionally recent changes in the revised
Instruction, along with newly instituted communications measures and
organizational taskings, have greatly improved the participation and
timeliness of the process.

In commenting on our recommendation to direct Combatant Commanders to
participate in pre- and post POM risk assessments, DOD stated that
Combatant Commander participation in the process is absolutely necessary.
The Services have already implemented several actions this past Munitions
Requirements Process cycle to facilitate dialog with Combatant Commanders
to improve collaboration and engage them in conflict resolution of risk
assessment issues. DOD Instruction 3000.4, currently under revision,
includes additional control measures to ensure appropriate risk
assessments by Combatant Commanders and the Services.

We are sending copies of this letter to the appropriate congressional
committees and the director, Office of Management and Budget. The letter
is also available on GAO's homepage at http://www.gao.gov. If you or any
of your staff have any questions on the matters discussed in this letter,
please contact me at (202) 512-8365. Key contributors to this letter were
John Pendleton, Jeffrey Kans, Enemencio Sanchez, and Robyn Trotter.

William M. Solis, Director
Defense Capabilities and Management

Enclosure

Page 5 GAO-05-765R Defense Management

                                   Enclosure

                     Page 6 GAO-05-765R Defense Management

                                   Enclosure

(350593)

                     Page 7 GAO-05-765R Defense Management

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