Interim Report on the Effects of COPS Funds on the Decline in	 
Crime during the 1990s (03-JUN-05, GAO-05-699R).		 
                                                                 
The enactment of the Public Safety Partnership and Community	 
Policing Act of 1994, Title 1 of the Violent Crime Control and	 
Law Enforcement Act (VCCLEA), authorized appropriations of $8.8  
billion to advance the practice of community policing as an	 
effective strategy in communities' efforts to improve public	 
safety. It had as a goal adding 100,000 new police officers	 
nationwide. The Attorney General created the Office of Community 
Oriented Policing Services (COPS) to administer community	 
policing grants. VCCLEA was enacted shortly after a period of	 
increasing violent crimes such as murder, rape, robbery and	 
aggravated assault. In December 1993, the Department of Justice  
(DOJ) began making community policing grants to state and local  
law enforcement agencies. By 2001, COPS grants totaling $7.3	 
billion in obligations had been made to state and local law	 
enforcement agencies, and these agencies had expended about $5	 
billion of these obligated amounts. The COPS grant expenditures  
amounted to about 1 percent of total local law enforcement	 
expenditures from 1994 through 2001. During the time that	 
agencies were spending COPS funds, violent crimes declined. One  
recent study of the effects of COPS grants on crime concluded	 
that the COPS grants contributed to reductions in crime in the	 
1990s. However, we previously reviewed the study and reported	 
that its methodological limitations were such that the study's	 
results should be viewed as inconclusive. Moreover, neither the  
study we reviewed nor a second study of the effects of COPS grant
funds on crime analyzed specific ways by which COPS funds could  
affect crime. In response to the inconclusive results of the	 
study we reviewed, Congress asked us to undertake our own	 
independent evaluation of the impact of COPS grants on the	 
decline in crime that occurred during the 1990s. This report	 
provides results to date from our evaluation regarding three	 
interrelated questions about the extent to which, if any, that	 
COPS grants affected the decline in crime in the 1990s: (1) How  
were the COPS grant funds distributed among local law enforcement
agencies, and to what extent did the distribution of funds	 
correspond to the distribution of total crime and violent crime? 
(2) Were COPS grants associated with changes in policing	 
practices such as proactive problem identification and		 
intervention, collaboration between police and their communities,
and a focus on specific places with high concentrations of crime?
(3) Did COPS grant funds lead to increases in the number of sworn
police officers, and if so, what was the impact of these	 
COPS-funded officers on the decline in crime during the 1990s?	 
Our final report on our evaluation--due for release in fall	 
2005--will assess additional aspects of these research		 
objectives, such as other distributional issues related to the	 
flow of funds, officers, and crime; cost-effectiveness issues;	 
and the relationship between policing practices and crime.	 
-------------------------Indexing Terms------------------------- 
REPORTNUM:   GAO-05-699R					        
    ACCNO:   A25718						        
  TITLE:     Interim Report on the Effects of COPS Funds on the       
Decline in Crime during the 1990s				 
     DATE:   06/03/2005 
  SUBJECT:   Appropriated funds 				 
	     Crime prevention					 
	     Federal funds					 
	     Federal grants					 
	     Funds management					 
	     Grants to local governments			 
	     Grants to states					 
	     Law enforcement					 
	     Law enforcement agencies				 
	     Police						 
	     Statistical data					 

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GAO-05-699R

Washington, DC 20548

June 3, 2005

The Honorable F. James Sensenbrenner, Jr.
Chairman
Committee on the Judiciary
House of Representatives

Subject: Interim Report on the Effects of COPS Funds on the Decline in
Crime during the 1990s

Dear Mr. Chairman:

The enactment of the Public Safety Partnership and Community Policing Act
of 1994, Title 1 of the Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act
(VCCLEA),1 authorized appropriations of $8.8 billion to advance the

practice of community policing as an effective strategy in communities'
efforts to improve public safety. It had as a goal adding 100,000 new
police officers nationwide.2 The Attorney General created the Office of

Community Oriented Policing Services (COPS) to administer community
policing grants. VCCLEA was enacted shortly after a period of increasing
violent crimes such as murder, rape, robbery and aggravated assault. For
example, from 1983 to 1992-the year before the nationwide volume of
violent crime began to decline-the number of violent crimes known to the
police increased from less than 1.3 million to more than 1.9 million (or
about 54 percent), and the violent crime rate per 100,000 population
increased from 538 to 758 (or about 41 percent).

In December 1993, the Department of Justice (DOJ) began making community
policing grants to state and local law enforcement agencies.3

1Pub. L. 103-322 (1994), 42 U.S.C. S: 3796dd.

2The act contained other provisions to address violent crime, such
encouraging states to increase the use of incarceration for violent
offenders through the Violent Offender Initiative and Truth-in-Sentencing
grants, enhancing penalties for gang crimes, and expanding the number of
federal death penalty offenses.

3Prior to the enactment of VCCLEA, DOJ awarded grants under the Police
Hiring Supplement Program, established by the Supplemental Appropriations
Act of 1993 ((P.L. 103-50 (1993)). Grants made under this program were
funded by DOJ's Bureau of Justice Assistance and monitored by the COPS
Office. In this report, COPS grants refer to both these grants and
community policing grants authorized under VCCLEA.

                               Page 1 GAO-05-699R

By 2001, COPS grants totaling $7.3 billion in obligations had been made to
state and local law enforcement agencies, and these agencies had expended
about $5 billion of these obligated amounts.4 The COPS grant

expenditures amounted to about 1 percent of total local law enforcement
expenditures from 1994 through 2001. During the time that agencies were
spending COPS funds, violent crimes declined. For example, between 1994
and 2001, the number of violent crimes declined from about 1.9 million to
about 1.4 million (or about 23 percent), and the violent crime rate per
100,000 population declined from 714 to 504 (or about 29 percent). While
the less than 1 percent of total local law enforcement expenditures
contributed by COPS funds during this period is unlikely in itself to have
generated the 29 percent decrease in the violent crime rate, the questions
of whether and, if so how much, the roughly $5 billion in COPS
expenditures contributed to the decline in crime merit attention.

One recent study of the effects of COPS grants on crime concluded that the
COPS grants contributed to reductions in crime in the 1990s.5 However, we
previously reviewed the study and reported that its methodological
limitations were such that the study's results should be viewed as
inconclusive.6 Moreover, neither the study we reviewed nor a second study
of the effects of COPS grant funds on crime analyzed specific ways by
which COPS funds could affect crime.7 For example, the two studies did not
examine whether reductions in crime were associated with the additional
police officers that COPS funds provided or whether they

4Grants were also available to other public enforcement agencies, Indian
tribal governments, other public and private entities, and
multi-jurisdictional or regional consortia that employ sworn law
enforcement officers.

5Zhao, J., and Thurman, Q., A National Evaluation of the Effect of COPS
Grants on Crime from 1994 to 1999 (December 2001).

6Our review of this study was reported in: Technical Assessment of Zhao
and Thurman's 2001 Evaluation of the Effects of COPS Grants on Crime,
GAO-03-867R (Washington, D.C.: June 13, 2003).

7In addition to the Zhao and Thurman work cited above, David Muhlhausen
has assessed the effects of COPS funds on crime rates. Using county-level
data, Muhlhausen found that other than the various grants used to fund
specific actions such as targeting domestic violence and gang activities,
COPS grants used to hire additional officers and redeploy current officers
were not associated with reductions in crime. See Muhlhausen, D. Do
Community Oriented Policing Services Grants Affect Violent Crime Rates
(Washington, D.C.: The Heritage Foundation, May 25, 2001). An updated
version of the Zhao and Thurman study can be found at Zhao, J., and
Thurman, Q., "Funding Community Policing to Reduce Crime: Have COPS Grants
Made a Difference from 1994 to 2000?" Report submitted to the Office of
Community Policing Services, U.S. Department of Justice, July 2004.

                               Page 2 GAO-05-699R

were associated with changes in policing practices that may have been
stimulated by COPS funds.

In response to the inconclusive results of the study we reviewed, you
asked us to undertake our own independent evaluation of the impact of COPS
grants on the decline in crime that occurred during the 1990s. This report
provides results to date from our evaluation regarding three interrelated
questions about the extent to which, if any, that COPS grants affected the
decline in crime in the 1990s: (1) How were the COPS grant funds
distributed among local law enforcement agencies, and to what extent did
the distribution of funds correspond to the distribution of total crime
and violent crime? (2) Were COPS grants associated with changes in
policing practices such as proactive problem identification and
intervention, collaboration between police and their communities, and a
focus on specific places with high concentrations of crime? (3) Did COPS
grant funds lead to increases in the number of sworn police officers, and
if so, what was the impact of these COPS-funded officers on the decline in
crime during the1990s? Our final report on our evaluation-due for release
in fall 2005-will assess additional aspects of these research objectives,
such as other distributional issues related to the flow of funds,
officers, and crime; cost-effectiveness issues; and the relationship
between policing practices and crime.

To address our reporting objectives, we created and analyzed a database
consisting of data on 13,133 local law enforcement agencies that had
reported complete crime data for at least 1 year during the years from
1990 through 2001. We organized the database as a panel data set, in that
it contained information on multiple units of analysis (law enforcement
agencies) over multiple years. For each agency, we obtained data on COPS
and other federal law enforcement grant obligations and expenditures from
the DOJ's Office of Justice Programs (OJP), and data on index crimes and
the number of sworn officers from the Federal Bureau of Investigation's
(FBI) Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program. Index crimes include the
violent crimes of murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape,
robbery, and aggravated assault, and the property crimes of burglary,
larceny-theft, motor vehicle theft, and arson.8 We obtained data on some
of the factors that the research literature on crime suggests are related
to changes in crime. From the Department of Commerce's Bureau of Economic
Analysis, we obtained data on local economic conditions---including
employment rates and per capita

8We excluded arson from our analyses because according to the FBI, there
is limited reporting of arson offenses to the UCR Program by law
enforcement agencies.

Page 3 GAO-05-699R

income-and from the Census Bureau, we obtained data on demographic
variables-including the percent of the population aged 15 to 24, and the
racial and gender composition of the population. We also obtained data
from two surveys of nationally representative samples of police
departments on the policing practices that they reportedly used. Each
survey was administered to its respective sample of agencies in 2 separate
years, thereby allowing for analyses of changes in policing practices.9

Using agency and year identifiers, we matched and merged data on funds,
crime, officers, and economic and demographic conditions from our database
with the agency-level records in each of the surveys. Prior to developing
our database, we assessed the reliability of each data source and in
preparing this report, we used only the data that we found to be
sufficiently reliable for the purposes of our report. See enclosure I for
more information on the data that we used and the procedures we undertook
to assess the reliability of the data.

We analyzed the data on COPS and other federal grant obligation and
expenditure amounts to describe how many agencies received COPS grants and
the types and amounts of grants and expenditures. We compared the amounts
of COPS grants with selected characteristics of each agency's community,
such as its population size and volume of crime. To address the
relationship between COPS grants and changes in policing practices, we
analyzed data from the two surveys by comparing changes in reported
policing practices between agencies that received COPS grants and those
that did not receive them. To assess the effects of COPS expenditures on
the number of officers and crime, we developed and estimated fixed-effects
regression models to determine the size and significance of these
relationships. The fixed-effects models assisted us in controlling for
unobserved factors that are not accounted for by the control variables
included in the models. Our regressions estimated the effects of COPS and
other federal law enforcement grant expenditures on

9The first survey was The National Survey of Community Policing Strategies
which was administered at two time points, in 1993 and 1997 (Rosenthal,
Arlen M., and Fridell, Lorie.

National Survey of Community Policing Strategies Update, 1997, and
Modified 19921993 Data [Computer file]. Inter-university Consortium for
Political and Social Research (ICPSR) version. Calverton, Md: ORC Macro
International, Inc. [producer], 2002. Ann Arbor, MI: ICPSR [distributor],
2002). In the remainder of this letter, we refer to the two
administrations of this longitudinal survey as the Policing Strategies
Survey. The second survey was conducted by the National Opinion Research
Center for the Urban Institute in 1996 and 2000 as part of the National
Institute of Justice-funded implementation evaluation of the COPS program.
See Roth, J., et al., National Evaluation of the COPS Program- Title I of
the 1994 Crime Act, Washington, D.C.: National Institute of Justice,
August 2000. In the remainder of this letter, we refer to the two
administrations of this second longitudinal survey as the National
Evaluation of COPS Survey.

                               Page 4 GAO-05-699R

Background

officers and crime, respectively, while controlling for differences among
agencies in their pre-COPS program trends in crime rates and sworn
officers, and for differences over time in socio-economic factors that
could affect both the number of police officers and crime rates, such as
unemployment and per-capita income, and changes in population composition.
We used agency-level fixed-effects to control for systematic
cross-sectional differences, and we used year-fixed effects to control for
time-specific differences between the agencies. In addition, we used
stateby-year fixed effects to control for changes in state-level practices
that could affect crime, such as changes in incarceration, sentencing
practices, or other state programs. Because of the complexity of the
statistical models that we used to estimate the effects of COPS grants on
crime, we reviewed our approach and methods with a group of experts in the
field of policing and crime. The group consisted of criminologists,
economists, statisticians, and practitioners, and was convened for us by
the National Research Council of the National Academies to enable
participants to offer their individual advice as experts in the field. See
enclosure I for additional details on our methods.

We conducted our work between January 2004 and June 2005 in accordance
with generally accepted government auditing standards.

The COPS Office distributed grants in about 30 different grant program
funding categories. The largest grant program category was the COPS hiring
grants,10 which required agencies to hire new officers and at the

same time to indicate the types of community policing strategies that they
intended to implement with the officers that they were to hire with these
grants. The hiring grants paid a maximum of $75,000 per officer over a
3year period (or at most 75 percent of an officer's salary) and generally
required that local agencies cover the remaining salary and benefits with
state or local funds. The next largest grant category was the Making
Officer Redeployment Effective (or MORE) grant program, which provided
funds to law enforcement agencies to purchase equipment and hire
civilians, with the goal of expanding the amount of time spent on
community policing. Additional COPS grant programs provided funds for
specific innovations in policing. For example, the Distressed

10Hiring programs authorized under VCCLEA and administered by the COPS
office included the Phase I program, which funded qualified applicants who
had applied for the Police Hiring Supplement but were denied because of
the limited funds available; COPS AHEAD (Accelerated Hiring, Education,
and Deployment) for municipalities with populations 50,000 and above; and
COPS FAST (Funding Accelerated for Smaller Towns) for towns with
populations below 50,000. In June 1995, Phase I, COPS AHEAD and COPS FAST
were replaced by the Universal Hiring Program.

                               Page 5 GAO-05-699R

Neighborhoods Pilot Project grants provided funds to communities with high
levels of crime and/or economic distress to hire officers and implement a
variety of strategies to improve public safety, and the Methamphetamine
Initiative provided funds to state and local agencies to support a variety
of enforcement, intervention, and prevention efforts to combat the
methamphetamine problem. COPS also provided grants for a variety of other
purposes, including funding to meet the community policing training needs
of officers and representatives of communities and local governments
(through a network of Regional Community Policing Institutes), and grants
to law enforcement agencies to hire and train school resource officers to
help prevent school violence and improve school and student safety (the
COPS in Schools Program).

Each year COPS was required to distribute half of the grant funds to
agencies in communities whose populations exceeded 150,000 persons and
half of the grant funds to agencies in communities with populations of
150,000 or fewer persons.11

The COPS program aimed to affect change in policing practices. For
example, in the application for COPS hiring grants, agencies were asked to
report the types of practices that they planned to implement with their
grants, such as identifying crime problems by looking at records of crime
trends and analyzing repeat calls for service, working with other public
agencies to solve disorder problems, locating offices or stations within
neighborhoods, and collaborating with community residents by increasing
officer contact with citizens and improving citizen feedback. The types of
practices that agencies planned to implement with their grants correspond
with general approaches to policing. For example, problem-solving policing
practices may rely on crime-analysis tools to identify crime problems in
developing solutions to these problems. Place-oriented practices attempt
to identify the locations where crime occurs repeatedly and to implement
procedures to disrupt these recurrences of crime. By collaborating with
community residents, agencies attempt to improve citizen feedback about
crime problems and the effectiveness of policing efforts to address these
problems.

Assessing whether COPS funds contributed to the decline in crime during
the 1990s is complicated by many factors. Nationwide, the decline in crime

11Of funds available in any fiscal year, up to 3 percent may be used for
technical assistance or for evaluations or studies carried out or
commissioned by the Attorney General. The requirement to allocate the
funds by size of agency population applies to the remaining funds in any
fiscal year (42 U.S.C. S: 3793(a)(11)(B)).

                               Page 6 GAO-05-699R

began in 1993 before the COPS program made its first grants, and the
general decline in crime makes it difficult to isolate the effect, if any,
of COPS funds on crime. COPS grants were distributed in ways that make
rigorous evaluations of their causal impacts difficult to implement. For
example, the majority of police agencies in our analysis-82 percent-
received at least one COPS grant. This wide distribution of COPS grant
recipient agencies limits the number of agencies that could be used as
comparison agencies against which to assess the effects of COPS grant
funds on the decline in crime. Further, the amount of funding certain
agencies receive may also relate to the agency's ability to combat crime.
For example, certain police chiefs may be more capable than others at
acquiring funds and also more up-to-date on policing methods. Therefore,
to assess the effects of COPS funds on crime, it is necessary to attempt
to control for an agency's underlying ability to address crime problems
and obtain funds, as well as other unobserved factors.

Appropriate methodologies from research on crime have been developed to
address these constraints. For example, fixed-effects regression models
that use a panel of data-or repeated observations on the same units, such
as police agencies, over several time periods-allow for assessing changes
in the number of sworn officers and crime rates that are associated with
variation in the timing and amount of COPS grant expenditures. These
regression methods also allow for the introduction of controls for
unobserved pre-existing differences between units (agencies) and
differences over time within units. In addition, methods incorporating the
underlying trajectories in crime rates and sworn officers in each agency
into the modeling of the effects of COPS funds allow for explicit
comparisons within groups of agencies sharing similar trajectories. By
identifying and explicitly modeling the mechanisms through which a program
could have its effects-such as COPS funds leading to increases in the
number of officers and their effects on crime-the possibility of a
spurious relationship between inputs (such as COPS funds) and outcomes
(such as crime) can be minimized.

Of the $6.01 billion in total COPS grant funds obligated to agencies in
our sample between 1994 and 2001, the majority was obligated in the form
of hiring grants, which accounted for about $4.05 billion, or 67 percent
of all obligations.12 About 82 percent, or about 9,100, of the agencies in
our

12The sample consisted of 11,187 agencies out of the 13,133 agencies in
our entire sample of agencies with at least 1 complete year of crime data.
The 11,187 agencies are those for which we were able to link crime, COPS,
and other federal law enforcement expenditures' data. The 11,187 agencies
accounted for about 86 percent of the reported index crimes in the United
States from 1990 through 2001.

                                    Results

Page 7 GAO-05-699R

sample received at least one COPS grant, of any type, during this period,
and about 75 percent received at least one hiring grant. By 2001, about 70
percent of the obligated amounts had been spent by the agencies that
received the grants.13 In the sample of COPS grantee agencies for which we
obtained population and crime data and could make comparisons, we found
that the COPS Office distributed about half of the grant money to agencies
covering populations of more than 150,000 and half to agencies with
populations of less than 150,000. Because crime may not be directly
related to population, one potential effect of the statutory requirement
to allocate funds based upon population is that funds might not
necessarily be allocated in relation to the volume of crime. We found
that, in the aggregate, COPS grant funds were distributed in proportion to
the total volume of index crimes, but they were not distributed in
proportion to the volume of violent crimes in the agencies that fell into
these two population categories. For example, agencies serving populations
of less than 150,000 persons received about 53 percent of COPS funding,
but they accounted for about 38 percent of violent crimes reported to the
police. The disparity was even greater for agencies serving the smallest
populations (such as places with populations of fewer than 25,000
persons).

Our analysis of changes in policing practices shows that agencies that
received COPS grant funds reported on average larger increases in policing
practices than those agencies that did not receive a COPS grant. However,
it may be the case that the receipt of COPS grants resulted from agencies'
efforts to change policing as opposed to being the cause of the change in
policing practices.

We compared the pre-COPS grant program (i.e., 1993) levels of reported
policing practices overall, and for four types of policing practices-
problem-solving practices, place-oriented practices, crime analysis, and
community collaboration-with their reported levels during the COPS program
(i.e., in 1997) in the Policing Strategies Survey sample of police
agencies. We found that there were larger increases in the reported use of
policing practices among the agencies that received at least one COPS
grant in this period than occurred among the agencies that did not receive
a COPS grant. The average increase in the level of reported use of all

13We obtained a total of $7.32 billion in COPS grant obligations from 1994
through 2001 among all agencies in our database that received at least one
federal law enforcement grant from 1990 through 2001 regardless of whether
these agencies could be matched with the UCR crime data. Of this total,
$4.69 billion was in the form of hiring grants. Not all COPS obligated
amounts were expended in the same years that agencies received grants.
This may be due to lags between the time of the receipt of a grant and the
hiring of officers or purchasing equipment.

                               Page 8 GAO-05-699R

policing practices among the COPS grantee agencies was about 31 percent,
while among the agencies that did not receive a COPS grant, the increase
was about 17 percent. For example, the mean level of reported practices
among agencies that received a COPS grant increased from 9.9 to 12.9
practices, while among the non-grantee agencies the mean level increased
from 8.3 to 9.8 practices.14 In addition, the agencies that received

COPS grants also had larger increases in the average levels of reported
use of problem-solving, place-oriented, and community-collaboration
practices than did the agencies that did not receive a COPS grant. For
example, among agencies that received COPS grant funds in this period, the
average level of reported use of problem-solving practices increased by
about 35 percent, as compared to about a 20 percent increase among the
nongrantee agencies. The increase in place-oriented practices among COPS
grantee agencies was about 32 percent, as compared to about 13 percent
among the non-COPS grantee agencies.

Our analysis of the National Evaluation of COPS Survey data on policing
practices in 1996 and in 2000 also showed that agencies that received COPS
grants reported larger increases in the use of policing practices than did
non-COPS grantee agencies. We found this relationship regardless of when
an agency received its first COPS grant. For example, for the agencies
that received their first COPS grant prior to 1996, the average increase
in reported use of policing practices from 1996 to 2000 was about 22
percent, and for the agencies that received their first COPS grant between
1996 and 2000, the average increase in reported use of policing practices
was about 16 percent. By contrast, for the agencies that had not received
a COPS grant by 2000, there was about a 2 percent increase in the reported
use of policing practices from 1996 to 2000.

Our regression models for estimating the effects of the variation in the
timing and amount of COPS hiring grant expenditures per capita on the
levels of sworn officers over the years from 1991 through 2001 showed that
COPS hiring grant expenditures were associated with increases in the net
number of sworn police officers. We obtained these results after
controlling for agency-level differences in the timing and amount of other
COPS grant expenditures and other federal law enforcement grant
expenditures; after controlling for annual changes in local economic and
demographic conditions in the county in which an agency was located; and
after controlling for changes in state-level factors that could affect the

14Reported changes in this paragraph are based on statistical tests of
differences in levels of policing practices from 1993 to 1997 between
agencies that received a COPS grant and those that did not receive a COPS
grant in this period.

                               Page 9 GAO-05-699R

level of sworn officers. Specifically, from our analyses of data for
police agencies serving populations of 10,000 or more persons we estimated
that each $25,000 in COPS hiring grant expenditures per year added about
0.6 of a sworn officer to the net number of sworn officers. We assessed
the effects of all COPS grant expenditures in specific years on the level
of sworn officers in these years, compared to the baseline, pre-COPS
program year of 1993. In 1998 through 2000-the 3 highest years of COPS
expenditures-we estimated that COPS expenditures were responsible for an
increase in the number of sworn officers per capita of about 3 percent
above the levels that would have been expected without the funds.15 Upon
projecting the results from our analysis of our sample of agencies to the
entire U. S. population, we estimated that, in the years from 1998 to
2000, COPS grant funds were associated with about 18,000 officers in each
year.

Using COPS hiring grants as a statistical link between the change in the
number of sworn officers and the change in crime, we estimated that
COPS-funded increases in sworn officers per capita were associated with
declines in the rates of total index crimes, violent crimes, and property
crimes in our sample of agencies serving populations of 10,000 or more
persons.16 These effects held after we controlled for the effects of other
federal law enforcement grant program expenditures by agencies, local
socio-economic and demographic changes that could affect crime, and
state-level factors-such as increases in incarceration, changes in
sentencing practice, and state-level changes in other programs such as
welfare-that could also affect crime.17 The effects of COPS funds on crime
varied among specific categories of index crimes. We calculated that a 1
percent increase in the level of sworn officers per capita was associated
with reductions in the rates of specific index crimes from about 0.1
percent to about 2 percent. For example, a 1 percent increase in the level
of officers was associated with about a 2 percent reduction in robbery
rates, about a 0.5 percent reduction in the rate of aggravated assaults,
and about a 0.1 percent reduction in the larceny-theft rate.18

15COPS expenditures were $785 million in 1998, $790 million in 1999, and
$869 million in 2000.

16In addition, in our analyses of the effects of sworn officers on
specific categories of crimes, we found reductions in the rates of murder
and non-negligent manslaughter, aggravated assault, robbery, burglary,
larceny, and motor vehicle theft.

17While our results are based upon statistically significant findings,
uncertainties associated with model formulation are always of potential
concern.

18In our analyses, COPS expenditures were not associated with reductions
in the rate of forcible rape.

                              Page 10 GAO-05-699R

In our analysis, the total effect of COPS grant expenditures on crime
rates depended upon the level of all COPS grant expenditures in a given
year, and level of expenditures varied from year to year. For the years
from 1998 through 2000-when COPS grant expenditures were at their peak
levels- and among the agencies in our sample, we estimated that COPS grant
expenditures were associated with about 1 percentage point of the annual
reduction in the index crime rate from its 1993 level, and about 3
percentage points of the annual reduction in the violent crime rate from
its 1993 level. When we projected these results from the analysis of our
sample to the entire U. S. population, we estimated the annual reductions
in crimes attributable to COPS funds nationwide. For the years 1998
through 2000, we estimated that COPS grant expenditures were associated
with reductions in index crimes from their 1993 levels that ranged from
about 200,000 to 225,000 index crimes, and about one-third of these were
violent crimes and about two-thirds were property crimes. In 1998-when
COPS grant expenditures amounted to about $785 million or 1.5 percent of
all local law enforcement expenditures-we estimated that the crimes
reduced due to COPS grant expenditures amounted to about 8 percent of the
total decline in index crimes and about 13 percent of the total decline in
violent crimes from their 1993 levels. During the years 1999 and 2000-
when COPS expenditures averaged about $829 million per year, or also about
1.5 percent of all local law enforcement expenditures-and crime continued
to decline, we calculated that the COPS-funded reductions in crimes
accounted for about 5 percent of the total reduction in index crimes and
about 10 percent of the total reduction in violent crimes from their 1993
levels.

We requested comments on a draft of this report from the Attorney General.
Department of Justice officials informed us that the agency did not have
any comments on the report.

                                Agency Comments

                               and Our Evaluation

As agreed with your office, unless you publicly announce the contents of
this report earlier, we plan no further distribution of it until 30 days
from the date of this report. We will then send copies of the report to
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If you or your staff have any questions concerning this report, please
contact Laurie Ekstrand at (202) 512-8777 or by e-mail at
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Relations and Public Affairs may be found on the last page of this report.

                              Page 11 GAO-05-699R

In addition, William J. Sabol, Tom Jessor, David Lilley, and Benjamin
Bolitzer made major contributions to this report.

Sincerely yours,

Laurie Ekstrand, Director
Homeland Security and Justice Issues

Nancy Kingsbury, Managing Director
Applied Research and Methods

Enclosures -I

                              Page 12 GAO-05-699R

 Enclosure I: Elements of the Database Used in Our Analysis and Methods Used to
                        Address Our Research Objectives

We constructed a database-our primary analysis database-that consisted of
up to 12 years of data (covering the period from 1990 through 2001) for
each of 13,133 law enforcement agencies that reported at least 1 complete
year of crime data to the FBI's Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program.
These agencies represented about 71 percent of the roughly 18,000 to over
19,000 agencies that were included in the data that we received from the
UCR. The 13,133 agencies covered about 88 percent of index crimes reported
in the UCR. We constructed our database in the form of a panel, in which
we obtained repeated measures on key variables in each agency over time.

The database contained information on federal law enforcement grant
amounts, reported crime, number of police officers, and socio-economic and
demographic factors associated with crime. The types of information
contained in our database were:

o  	Grant obligation amounts to and annual amounts expended by each
recipient of a community-oriented policing (or COPS) grant.1

o  	Annual amounts of other federal local law enforcement grants expended
both by agencies that received COPS funds and those that did not.

o  	Annual data on the number of index crimes and seven categories of
index crimes, along with annual data on the number of such crimes per
100,000 persons.

o  	Annual observations on the number of sworn police officers and the
number of officers per 10,000 persons.

o  	Annual data on economic and demographic factors that are related to
crime, such as employment, per-capita income, relative number of persons
in the 15 to 24 age group-an age group associated with high crime
rates-the gender and racial composition of populations, and total
population.

We linked data from the various sources to each law enforcement agency
contained in our sample of agencies. The sources of data used to compile

1In this report, COPS grants refer both to DOJ grants awarded through the
Police Hiring Supplement Program and the COPS Office's community policing
grants authorized under VCCLEA.

                              Page 13 GAO-05-699R

Enclosure I: Elements of the Database Used in Our Analysis and Methods
Used to Address Our Research Objectives

the annual observations from 1990 through 2001 on local police departments
included:

o  	The UCR-Annual data files on the number of crimes and sworn officers
reported by each agency to the UCR. We analyzed data for the violent
crimes of murder and non-negligent manslaughter, forcible rape, robbery,
and aggravated assault, and the property crimes of burglary,
larceny-theft, and motor vehicle theft. In addition, the data on sworn
officers represent the reported number of full-time officers in each
agency on October 31 of each year. We used the originating agency
identifier (or ORI) variable and place codes to link crime and officer
data to other data sources. 2

o  	Office of Justice Programs (OJP) Financial Data-Annual data on the
amounts obligated and paid (expended) from each grant awarded by OJP.
Because OJP and COPS share data, these OJP data also included COPS grant
expenditures. We used information about place codes and OJP vendors to
link these data to our other sources.

o  	Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Department of Commerce)- County
level data on per capita income and employment. We linked these data to
agency-level data using place codes. Local economic conditions within each
county are applied to each agency within a county.

o  	Population Estimates Program (U.S. Census Bureau)-For each county, we
obtained population totals and population breakdowns by gender, race, and
age. We linked these data using place codes.

In addition to the sources above that provided annual data on local
policing agencies, we obtained and analyzed data from two separate surveys
of nationally representative samples of local law enforcement agencies
about the types of policing practices that they reportedly used. Both
surveys consisted of two administrations or waves of observations on the
agencies in their respective samples. The first survey, the National
Survey of Community Policing Strategies (or "Policing Strategies Survey"),
was administered in 1993 and again in 1997. The Police Foundation
administered the 1993 wave of the survey, and Macro International, Inc.

2We used Federal Information Processing Standards codes (or FIPS codes),
which identify named population places and are issued by the National
Institute of Standards and Technology.

                              Page 14 GAO-05-699R

Enclosure I: Elements of the Database Used in Our Analysis and Methods
Used to Address Our Research Objectives

administered the 1997 wave of the survey. 3 We identified agencies in the
Policing Strategies Survey that responded to both waves of the survey, and
of these, we were able to link the data from 1,035 agencies to our larger
database on crime, officers, money, and economic conditions.4 We used the
Policing Strategies Survey data to compare reported changes in the types
and levels of policing practices that occurred during the COPS program
with pre-COPS levels of practices.

The second survey, which we termed the National Evaluation of COPS Survey,
was conducted by the National Opinion Research Center for the Urban
Institute in its national evaluation of the implementation of the COPS
program.5 We used the two waves of the survey from 1996 and 2000, and we
were able to link the data from 1,001 agencies that responded to both of
these waves of the survey to our larger database on crime, officers,
money, and economic conditions.6 We used the data from this survey to
compare changes in reported policing practices occurring during the period
of the COPS program.

Prior to developing our database, we assessed the reliability of each data
source. To assess the reliability of the various data sources, we (1)
performed electronic testing for obvious errors in accuracy and
completeness; (2) reviewed related documentation, including data
dictionaries, codebooks, and published research reports that made use of
the data sources; and (3) worked closely with agency officials to identify
any data problems. When we found discrepancies (such as nonpopulated
fields or what appeared to be data entry errors) we brought them to the
agencies' attention and worked with them to correct the discrepancies
before conducting our analyses. We determined that the data were
sufficiently reliable for the purposes of our report.

3The 1993 survey was designed to provide information on what was occurring
and what needed to occur in the development and implementation of
community policing. The 1997 survey was designed to provide information on
the most current practices and trends in community policing.

4These agencies represented about 82 percent of the agencies that
responded to both waves of the Policing Strategies Survey.

5See Roth, J., et al., National Evaluation of the COPS Program-Title I of
the 1994 Crime Act.

6These agencies also represented about 79 percent of the agencies that
responded to both waves of the National Evaluation of COPS Survey.

                              Page 15 GAO-05-699R

Enclosure I: Elements of the Database Used in Our Analysis and Methods
Used to Address Our Research Objectives

In addition, we assessed potential biases of using UCR reported crime data
for our estimates of the effects of COPS funds on crime. The crime data in
the UCR consist of crimes brought to the attention of law enforcement
agencies. These crimes are a subset of all crimes. Underreporting crimes
by citizens could introduce bias in our results if the rate at which
citizens reported crimes to the police declined during our study period.
Under such a scenario, the true crime rate would diverge from the reported
crime rate, and our results, which are based on the reported crime rate in
the UCR, could attribute reductions in crime to COPS expenditures when in
fact the true crime rate diverged from the reported crime rate. We
assessed the direction of potential biases associated with reporting of
crimes to the police and concluded that, if the rate of reporting crimes
increased or remained the same, then our estimates of the effects of COPS
expenditures on crime would underestimate the true effects of COPS
expenditures. However, if the rate that citizens reported crimes to the
police declined, then our estimated effects would overstate the true
effects of COPS expenditures on crime. To assess possible bias in
reporting crimes to the police, we analyzed data from the National Crime
Victimization Survey (NCVS). These data, which are drawn from a nationally
representative sample of households, report on individuals' experiences as
victims of crimes. If respondents had been victimized, they were asked if
they or others reported the criminal victimization to the police. The NCVS
data show that during the 1990s, victims generally increased the rate at
which they reported crimes to the police, especially if they had been the
victim of a violent crime. Given these findings, it appears that our model
is more likely to underestimate than overestimate the effect of COPS funds
on changes in the true crime rate.

We conducted our work between January 2004 and June 2005 in accordance
with generally accepted government auditing standards.

In analyzing the flow of COPS funds to local law enforcement agencies, our
objectives were to assess how COPS funds were distributed in relation to
population and crime. We used the OJP financial data to compute the amount
of COPS funds obligated by COPS grants and the amount expended by local
police agencies during the period from 1994 through 2001. To describe the
overall COPS funding trends by grant type, we analyzed the universe of
agencies in the OJP data that received any federal law enforcement grant
during the period from 1990 through 2001, regardless of whether or not the
agency received a COPS grant during the period and regardless of whether
we were able to link the data from these agencies to records in the UCR.
For the 1990 through 2001 period, the OJP data show that 13,332 agencies
received any federal law enforcement grant. For analyses of COPS funds by
agency population sizes and for

Methods Used to Analyze the Flow of COPS Funds

                              Page 16 GAO-05-699R

Enclosure I: Elements of the Database Used in Our Analysis and Methods
Used to Address Our Research Objectives

Methods Used to Analyze Changes in Policing Practices

comparisons of funding levels with levels of violent and total index
crime, we limited our analysis to the subsample of agencies whose crime
and population data we were able to link to the OJP data. This resulted in
a sample of 11,187 agencies-or 85 percent-of the 13,133 agencies in our
primary analysis database. These 11,187 agencies accounted for 86 percent
of the reported index crimes in the United States from 1990 through 2001.

To address whether COPS grants were associated with changes in the use of
policing practices, we analyzed the Policing Strategies and National
Evaluation of COPS survey data. We compared differences in the reported
levels of policing practices between agencies that received COPS grants
and those that did not receive grants during the 2 periods covered by the
surveys. With the Policing Strategies Survey, we compared pre-and
within-COPS program differences in the reported use of policing practices
(or from 1993 to 1997), and with the National Evaluation of COPS Survey,
we compared changes in the reported use of policing practices that
occurred during the COPS program (or from 1996 to 2000).

Each of the surveys reported data on the policing practices used by
agencies. Survey responses were obtained from knowledgeable officials
within each agency, such as the police chief or the chief's designee. The
number of items related to policing practices differed between the two
surveys. For the data in each survey, we classified items into four
categories of policing practices: problem-solving practices,
place-oriented practices, community collaboration activities, and crime
analysis activities.

We used 30 items on policing practices from the Policing Strategies
Survey. We combined eight practices pertaining to increasing officer
contact with citizens and improving citizen feedback into a community
collaboration index. We used items on the crime analysis units within
police departments to create our index of crime analysis. We combined
seven practices pertaining to increasing enforcement activity or place
management in buildings, neighborhoods, or other specific places into an
index of place-focused practices. And we compiled the data on 12 items
that reflected organizational efforts to reduce or interrupt recurring
mechanisms that may encourage crime into a problem-solving practices
index. The classification of items from the Policing Strategies Survey
into our four indexes of types of policing practices is shown in table 1.

Page 17 GAO-05-699R

Enclosure I: Elements of the Database Used in Our Analysis and Methods
Used to Address Our Research Objectives

Table 1: Categories of Policing Practices and Specific Items within Each
Category in the Policing Strategies Survey

                            Community collaboration

 Agency uses foot patrol as a specific assignment Agency uses foot patrol as a
               periodic expectation for officers assigned to cars

Agency uses citizen surveys to determine community needs and priorities

Agency uses citizen surveys to evaluate police service

Patrol officers conduct surveys in area of assignment

Patrol officers meet regularly with community groups

Supervisors maintain regular contact with community leaders

Agency uses citizens as volunteers within the police agency

Crime analysis

Agency has a decentralized crime analysis unit/function

Agency has a centralized crime analysis unit/function

    Supervisors manage crime analysis for geographic area of responsibility

                            Place-oriented practices

Agency designates some officers as "community" or "neighborhood" officers

    Agency uses building code enforcement as a means of helping remove crime

Geographically based crime analysis made available to officers

Command or decision-making responsibility tied to neighborhoods or beats
Patrol officers enforce civil and code violations in area
Fixed assignment of patrol officers to specific beats or areas
Agency uses other regulatory codes to combat drugs and crime

Problem-solving practices

Specific training provided officers for problem identification and
resolution

Training for citizens in problem identification or resolution

Landlord/manager training programs for order maintenance

Interagency involvement in problem identification and resolution

Agency has revised procedures to deal with neighborhood problems

Multidisciplinary teams to deal with special problems such as child abuse
and neglect

Specialized problem-solving unit

Patrol officers work with citizens to identify and resolve area problems

Organization has been redesigned to support problem solving efforts

Line supervisors make final decision about which problems are to be
addressed

Line supervisors make final decision about how to handle most community
problems

                              Page 18 GAO-05-699R

Enclosure I: Elements of the Database Used in Our Analysis and Methods
Used to Address Our Research Objectives

Line supervisors make final decision about application of agency resources
to solve problem in geographic area of responsibility

Source: Policing Strategies Survey, 1993 and 1997.

Note: Each individual item is coded dichotomously (yes/no) to indicate
whether an agency implemented the specific practice.

We used 19 items on policing practices from the National Evaluation of
COPS Survey, and we classified these items into the same categories of
practices as we did with the Policing Strategies Survey data (table 2).

                              Page 19 GAO-05-699R

Enclosure I: Elements of the Database Used in Our Analysis and Methods
Used to Address Our Research Objectives

Table 2: Categories of Policing Practices and Specific Items within Each
Category in the National Evaluation of COPS Survey

                            Community collaboration

                  Regular community meetings to discuss crime

Surveys of citizens to determine general community needs and satisfaction
with agency

             Citizen action/advisory councils in precincts or beats

Officers analyze community residents' comments to identify recurring
patterns of crime and disorder on their beats

Considering neighborhood values in creating solutions or planning projects

Varying styles of preventive patrol (e.g., bike patrol, walk-and-talk
patrol)

Joint projects with local businesses to reduce disorder or petty crime

Crime analysis

Analyzing crime patterns using computerized geographic information systems

Officers analyze and use crime data to identify recurring patterns of
crime and disorder on their beats

                            Place-oriented practices

               Clean up/fix up projects with community residents

Joint projects with community residents to reduce disorder such as
loitering, public drinking

 Beat or patrol boundaries that coincide with neighborhood/community boundaries

Alcohol, housing, or other code enforcement to combat crime and disorder

                           Problem-solving practices

Designating certain recurring patterns as "problems" or "projects"
requiring nontraditional responses

Analyzing problems with business or property owners, school principals, or
property managers or occupants

Analyzing problems with probation/parole officers or others who monitor
offenders

Using agency data to measure effects of responses to problems

Using citizens' input to measure effects of responses to problems

Team approach instead of chain of command for prevention, problem-solving,
and law enforcement

Source: National Evaluation of COPS Survey, 1996 and 2000.

Note: Each individual item is coded dichotomously (yes/no) to indicate
whether an agency implemented the specific practice.

From each of the surveys, we developed summary indexes of the overall
number of reported policing practices and the number of practices within
each of the four categories of policing practices. We then computed and
compared changes in the mean levels of reported policing practices between
the COPS grantee and non-grantee agencies. We tested whether

                              Page 20 GAO-05-699R

Enclosure I: Elements of the Database Used in Our Analysis and Methods
Used to Address Our Research Objectives

Methods Used to Estimate the Effects of COPS Funds on Sworn Officers

the differences in reported increases in levels of practices between the
COPS-grantee and non-grantee agencies were statistically significant using
one-way analysis of variance techniques.

To estimate the effects of COPS funds on officers, we used fixed-effects
regression methods that permitted us to assess changes in the levels of
sworn officers per 10,000 persons as a function of the timing and amount
of COPS expenditures, other federal expenditures, local economic
conditions, and changes in the age, gender, and racial composition of
local populations. The fixed effects regression models allow us to control
for two sources of unmeasured variation (i.e., omitted variables): The
preexisting differences among the agencies in our sample that are constant
within agencies over time and the differences within agencies over time in
relation to the overall trends in variables. By adopting these models, we
are able to control for the effects of unmeasured variables that vary over
time between agencies and that might be correlated with our dependent
variables. We introduced fixed effects at the level of the local law
enforcement agency. In addition, to control for state-level influences on
officers that we were unable to observe directly-such as changes in state
sentencing practices-we also introduced state-by-year fixed effects into
our models.

To control for underlying trends in the pre-COPS grant period in sworn
officers and crime, we estimated regressions that analyzed these trends,
and then we classified each agency's trend within population size groups.
This allowed us to compare agencies within population size categories that
had similar trends in officers and crime prior to the COPS program.
Specifically, we separated the agencies in four groups based on the growth
rate in both officers and in crime during 1990-1993, which is prior to the
implementation of the COPS program. We constructed each combination of
these groups, which produced 16 cells. We then interacted these cells with
each of the 11 years of data used in the regressions that analyzed the
effects of COPS funds on sworn officers and with 5 population categories
to yield a total of 880 effects. In essence then, each agency is being
compared with another agency that had a similar trajectory-or growth rate
pattern-of crime and officers in the pre-COPS period.7

We analyzed the data for 4,509 police agencies with populations of 10,000
or more persons. We estimated several regressions of the effect of COPS
funds on sworn officers, and we included as time-varying independent

7This approach was first implemented by Evans, W., and Owens, E.,
"Flypaper COPS," (College Park, Md.: University of Maryland, April 2005).

Page 21 GAO-05-699R Enclosure I: Elements of the Database Used in Our
Analysis and Methods Used to Address Our Research Objectives

Methods Used to Estimate the Effects of COPS Funds on Crime through Sworn
Officers

variables the per capita amounts of COPS hiring grants, COPS MORE grants,
COPS grants for innovative programs, other COPS grants, Edward Byrne
Memorial State and Local Law Enforcement Assistance Discretionary Grants,
Local Law Enforcement Block Grants (LLEBG), the employment to population
ratio, per capita income, the percent of the population that was male, the
percent of the population that was nonwhite, and the percent of the
population that was between the ages of 15 and 24. All of our economic and
demographic measures were observed at the level of the county that
contained the local law enforcement agency. Our regressions included the
agency-level fixed effects, year fixed effects, controls for the pre-COPS
Program trends in the growth of officers and crime, population weights (to
allow us to estimate national-level effects), and state-by-year fixed
effects.

We projected our results to the nation as a whole to obtain an estimate of
the change in the national level of officers attributable to COPS
expenditures in a given year. We did this by multiplying the population of
the United States by our estimate of the per capita effects of COPS
expenditures on officers in our sample.

We estimated the impact of COPS expenditures on crime through these funds'
effects on changes in officers. We made use of the fact that, unlike the
other COPS grant types, hiring grants were earmarked specifically for the
hiring of officers. Consequently, given the number of officers, variation
in hiring grant expenditures should be unrelated with other changes in
crime. Taking advantage of this, we used variation in COPS hiring grant
expenditures to identify the relationship between sworn officers and crime
rates.

We then estimated population-weighted regressions of the impact of the
flow of COPS expenditures on crime rates, net of pre-existing trends in
crime rates and growth of officers, and net of economic conditions,
population change, and other amounts of funding for local law enforcement.
We used the population weights to allow us to develop estimates for the
nation as a whole. We estimated our regressions on the same sample of
4,509 agencies with populations of 10,000 or more that we used in our
officers equations. We estimated crime equations separately by type of
crime. Under the assumption that hiring grants can be used as an
instrument, we used the results from the two regressions-officer rate on
COPS funds and crime rate on COPS funds-to calculate the elasticity of
crime with respect to officers (i.e., percent change in crime rates
attributable to the percent change in officers).

                              Page 22 GAO-05-699R

Enclosure I: Elements of the Database Used in Our Analysis and Methods
Used to Address Our Research Objectives

More specifically, we estimated the effect of COPS hiring expenditures on
crime controlling for measures of specific types of COPS grant funds
(e.g., MORE, grants for innovation, and other COPS grants) expended,
measures of other federal grant funds expended, and the controls for
socioeconomic and demographic changes in the population. We included the
880 variables that controlled for pre-COPS trends in officers and crime,
and we introduced agency-level, year-level, and state-by-year fixed
effects. The state-by-year fixed effects allow us to control for
unmeasured statelevel sources of variation with crime, such as increases
in state incarceration rates, changes in state sentencing practices, and
changes in other state programs-such as welfare reform-that could affect
crime rates. We estimated regressions separately for the index crime rate
and by type of index crime.

After obtaining the coefficients from our officers and crime regressions,
and to obtain estimates of the effects of COPS funds on crime through
officers, we then calculated the elasticity of crime with respect to
officers in any given year. The elasticity of crime with respect to
officers provides an estimate of the effect of a 1 percent change in the
level of sworn officers per capita on the per capita crime rate. Using
these elasticities, we then apportioned the amount of the reduction in
crime that we could attribute to COPS funds. To project the effects of
COPS funds on crime to the nation as a whole, we then weighted the
estimates of COPS effects on crime in our sample up to the nation as
whole.

We projected our results to the nation as a whole to obtain an estimate of
the change in the national level of crimes attributable to COPS
expenditures in a given year. We did this by multiplying the population of
the United States by our estimate of the per capita effects of COPS
expenditures on each category of crime in our sample.

Review of Our Approach by Experts

(440420)

We reviewed our approach and methods with a group of experts in the fields
of policing and crime. The group was convened for us by the National
Research Council of the National Academy of Sciences, and consisted of
criminologists, economists, statisticians, and practitioners. The members
of the group offered their views on our data and methods, and offered
suggestions about additional statistical tests that we could conduct to
determine if our results held under different formulations of our models.
For example, in the information that we presented to the experts, our
regressions of the effects of COPS expenditures on officers and crime did
not include the state-by-year fixed effects, which were suggested as a way
to control for state-level changes in incarceration or sentencing
practices. We included these effects in the regressions on which we
reported in this correspondence.

Page 23 GAO-05-699R

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