Redefining Retirement: Options for Older Americans (27-APR-05,	 
GAO-05-620T).							 
                                                                 
In the 21st century our nation faces a growing fiscal imbalance. 
A demographic shift will begin to affect the federal budget in	 
2008 as the first baby boomers become eligible for Social	 
Security benefits. This shift will increase as spending for	 
federal health and retirement programs swells. Long-term	 
commitments for these and other federal programs will drive a	 
massive imbalance between spending and revenues that cannot be	 
eliminated without tough choices and significant policy changes. 
Continued economic growth is critical and will help to ease the  
burden, but the projected fiscal gap is so great that it is	 
unrealistic to expect that we will grow our way out of the	 
problem. Early action to change existing programs and policies	 
would yield the highest fiscal dividends and provide a longer	 
period for prospective beneficiaries to make adjustments in their
own planning. One of the potential policy changes is assisting	 
older workers who want to stay in the workforce past retirement  
age. The Chairman and Ranking Member of the Senate Special	 
Committee on Aging asked GAO to discuss demographic and labor	 
force trends and the economic and fiscal need to increase labor  
force participation among older workers. This testimony will	 
address those factors making it important to encourage those who 
want to work to continue doing so, as well as factors affecting  
older Americans' employment decisions.				 
-------------------------Indexing Terms------------------------- 
REPORTNUM:   GAO-05-620T					        
    ACCNO:   A22800						        
  TITLE:     Redefining Retirement: Options for Older Americans       
     DATE:   04/27/2005 
  SUBJECT:   Baby boomers					 
	     Economic growth					 
	     Elderly persons					 
	     Fringe benefits					 
	     Health insurance					 
	     Labor force					 
	     Labor statistics					 
	     Medicare						 
	     Older workers					 
	     Retirement 					 
	     Social Security Program				 

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GAO-05-620T

United States Government Accountability Office

GAO	Testimony Before the Special Committee on Aging, U.S. Senate

For Release on Delivery

Expected at 10:00 a.m. EDT REDEFINING

Wednesday, April 27, 2005

RETIREMENT

                          Options for Older Americans

Statement of Barbara D. Bovbjerg, Director Education, Workforce, and
Income Security

GAO-05-620T

April 27, 2005

REDEFINING RETIREMENT

Options for Older Americans

[IMG]

What GAO Found

The aging of the baby boom generation (those born between 1946 and 1964),
increased life expectancy, and falling fertility rates pose serious
challenges for our nation. These trends will affect the size and
productivity of the U.S. labor force and its output and will have real and
important impacts on employers and the economy. With the impending
retirement of the baby boom generation, employers face the loss of many
experienced workers and possibly skill gaps in certain occupations. This
could have adverse effects on productivity and economic growth.
Furthermore, the expected increasing ratio of the elderly to those of
working ages will place added pressure on Social Security and Medicare,
both of which face long-term financial problems. Increasing the labor
force by encouraging Americans to work longer may be one part of solutions
to these problems.

Although some people can benefit by remaining in the labor force at later
ages, others may be unable or unwilling to do so. For those who are able,
there are many factors that influence their choices. These include the
eligibility rules of both employer pension plans and Social Security, an
individual's health status, the need for health insurance, personal
preference, and the employment status of a spouse. The availability of
suitable employment, including part-time work or flexible work
arrangements, may also affect the retirement and employment choices of
older workers.

Labor Force Participation Rate at Older Ages is Projected to Rise Slightly

Labor force participation rate 90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10 1970 1972 1974

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

0

Women 65+ Men 65+ Women 55-64 Men 55-64

Source: United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics
from the Current Population Survey, http://www.bls.gov/data/home.htm.

                 United States Government Accountability Office

Mr. Chairman and Members of the Committee:

Slow labor force growth coupled with an aging population pose serious
economic and fiscal challenges to America in the 21st century. Policies
that encourage those older workers who want to work to continue doing so
or that remove work disincentives for this age group could help mitigate
the problem. I am pleased to be here today to discuss the importance of
older workers to the labor force, the economy, and the future health of
U.S. retirement programs.

Today I would like to look at older workers from two perspectives,
considering first those factors making it important to encourage those who
want to work to continue doing so and second factors affecting older
Americans' employment decisions. GAO has conducted several studies related
to older worker issues, including demographic trends and their effects on
employers, older workers, the federal budget, and the economy.1 My
statement is based on some of this prior GAO work. We are currently
working on a study in greater depth of older workers' perspectives
concerning employment and retirement options. We expect to publish a
report in the fall.

In summary, the aging of the baby boom generation (those born between 1946
and 1964), increased life expectancy, and falling fertility rates pose
serious challenges for our nation. These trends will affect the size and
productivity of the U.S. labor force and its output and will have real and
important impacts on employers and the economy. With the impending
retirement of the baby boom generation, employers face the loss of many
experienced workers and possibly skill gaps in certain occupations. This
could have adverse effects on productivity and economic growth.
Furthermore, the expected increasing ratio of the elderly to those of
working ages will place added pressure on Social Security and Medicare,

1For further information on older worker issues please see the following
reports and testimonies: GAO, Older Workers: Demographic Trends Pose
Challenges for Employers and Workers, GAO-02-85 (Washington, D.C.: Nov.16,
2001); Highlights of a GAO Forum: Workforce Challenges and Opportunities
For the 21st Century--Changing Labor Force Dynamics and the Role of
Government Policies , GAO-04-845SP (Washington, D.C.: Jun.1, 2004);
Retiree Health Insurance: Erosion in Employer-Based Health Benefits for
Early Retirees, GAO/HEHS-97-150 (Washington, D.C.: Jul.11, 1997); Private
Health Insurance: Declining Employer Coverage May Affect Access for 55 to
64 Year Olds, GAO/HEHS-98-133 (Washington, D.C.: Jun.1, 1998); Older
Workers: Policies of Other Nations to Increase Labor Force Participation,
GAO-03-307 (Washington, D.C.: Feb.13, 2003).

both of which face long-term financial problems. Increasing the labor
force by encouraging Americans to work longer may be one part of solutions
to these problems.

Encouraging Americans to work longer, if they are able to, requires first
understanding the factors influencing that decision. These include
retirement income, the availability of health insurance, an individual's
health status, and the employment status of a spouse. The availability of
suitable employment, including part-time work or flexible work
arrangements, also may affect older workers' choices regarding retirement
and employment. Given these options, federal policymakers may want to
consider creating incentives for older Americans who are able to work to
remain in the workforce and ensuring that federal policies do not
discourage the choice to work longer. Doing so could enhance future
supplies of skilled workers, bolster economic growth, and help many people
secure adequate retirement income.

In the 21st century the nation faces a growing fiscal imbalance. A
demographic shift will begin to affect the federal budget in 2008 as the
first baby boomers become eligible for Social Security benefits. This
shift will increase as spending for federal health and retirement programs
swells. Long-term commitments for these and other federal programs will
drive a massive imbalance between spending and revenues that cannot be
eliminated without tough choices and significant policy changes. Over the
past several years, GAO has called attention to this problem. Long-term
budget simulations by GAO, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), and
others illustrate the growing fiscal imbalance. (See fig. 1.)

Background

Figure 1: Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid Spending as a Percent of
GDP

Percent of GDP

30

25

20

15

10

5

0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Source: GAO analysis based on data from the Office of the Chief Actuary,
Social Security Administration, Office of the Actuary, Centers for
Medicare and Medicaid Services, and the Congressional Budget Office.

Note: Social Security and Medicare projections are based on the
intermediate assumptions of the 2005 Trustees' Reports. Medicaid
projections are based on CBO's January 2005 short-term Medicaid estimates
and CBO's December 2003 long-term Medicaid projections under midrange
assumptions.

Continued economic growth is critical to addressing this challenge and
will help to ease the burden, but the projected fiscal gap is so great
that it is unrealistic to expect that the United States will grow its way
out of the problem. Early action to change existing programs and policies
would yield the highest fiscal dividends and provide a longer period for
prospective beneficiaries to make adjustments in their own planning. One
of the potential policy changes that could address both the demographic
shift and the need for robust economic growth is assisting older workers
who want to stay in the workforce past retirement age.

These demographic problems are not unique to the United States. Other
countries are also confronting the economic and labor force consequences
of aging populations. In fact, the challenges arising from these
demographic shifts alone will be less pronounced in the United States than
in several other high-income nations. In prior work that we conducted for
this committee, we found that Sweden, Japan, and the United Kingdom had
enacted retirement policy reforms that included incentives for older

Economic and Demographic Trends Call For Policies Encouraging Longer
Working Lives

workers to extend their working lives.2 At the same time, these countries
were also seeking policies that would reduce barriers to employment for
older workers.

In the 21st century, older Americans are expected to represent a growing
share of the population, have a longer life expectancy than previous
generations and spend more years in retirement. The baby boom generation
is fast approaching retirement age; the oldest baby boomers will start to
turn 65 in 2011, just 6 years from now. In addition, life expectancy is
increasing. The average life expectancy at age 65 for men has increased
from just over 13 years in 1970 to 16 years in 2005, and is projected to
increase to 17 years by 2020. Women have experienced a similar rise--from
17 years in 1970 to over 19 years in 2005. Women's life expectancy at age
65 is projected to be 20 years by 2020. (See fig. 2.)

2 GAO, Older Workers: Policies of Other Nations to Increase Labor Force
Participation, GAO-03-307 (Washington, D.C.: Feb.13, 2003).

Figure 2: Life Expectancy Has Risen Steadily and May Continue to Do So

Years

22

20

18

16

14

12

10

0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020

Men

Women

Source: Felicitie C. Bell and Michael L. Miller, "Life Tables for the
United States Social Security Area 1900-2100," Actuarial Study No. 116,
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/NOTES/as116/as116TOC.html.

As a consequence of life expectancy increases, individuals are generally
spending more years in retirement. The average male worker spent 18 years
in retirement in 2003, up from less than 12 years in 1950.

A lower fertility rate is the other principal factor underlying the growth
in the elderly's share of the population. In the 1960s, the fertility rate
was an average of three children per woman.3 Since the 1970s, the
fertility rate has hovered around two children per woman. This decline in
the fertility rate is a major factor in the slowing growth of the labor
force over the last decade, a trend that is expected to continue. By 2025
labor force growth is expected to be less than a fifth of what it is
today, as shown in figure 3.

3The fertility rate is defined as the total number of children born per
1000 women aged 15 to 44 years.

Figure 3: U.S. Labor Force Growth Will Continue to Decline

Percentage change (5-year moving average)

3

2

1

0

1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080

Source: GAO analysis of data from the Office of the Chief Actuary, Social
Security Administration.

Note: Percentage change is calculated as a centered 5-year moving average
of projections based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2004 Trustees'
Reports.

As a result of these trends, the share of the population aged 65 and older
is
projected to increase from 12 percent in 2000 to almost 20 percent in
2030.
These developments will lead to significant changes in the elderly
dependency ratio--the estimated proportion of people aged 65 and over to
those of working age. In 1950, there was one elderly person for every 7
workers. The ratio increased to 1 to 5 in 2000 and is projected to rise to
1
to 3 by 2050. (See fig. 4.)

      Figure 4: U.S. Elderly Dependency Ratio Has Increased Substantially

Elderly dependency ratio (in percent)

                            1950 1980 2000 2030 2050

Source: Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social
Affairs of the United Nations Secretariat, World Population Prospects:
2002 Revision and World Urbanization Prospects: 2001 Revision. Data for
2030-2050 are projected.

Note: The elderly dependency ratio is the ratio of the population aged 65
years or over to the population aged 15 to 64.

These demographic developments have real implications for the nation's
economy. If labor force growth continues to decline as projected,
relatively fewer workers will be available to produce goods and services.
Without a major increase in productivity or higher than projected
immigration, low labor force growth will lead to slower growth in the
economy and to slower growth of federal revenues. This in turn will
accentuate the overall pressure on the federal budget.4 Another concern is
the possible loss of many experienced workers as the baby boomers retire.
This could create gaps in skilled worker and managerial occupations,
leading to further adverse effects on productivity and economic growth.

Though long-term trends in labor force growth present significant
challenges, there is some reason for optimism. In recent years, the labor

4For more information on long-term fiscal and economic challenges, please
see GAO, Social Security: Long-Term Challenges Warrant Early Action,
GAO-05-303T (Washington, D.C.: Feb. 3, 2005); Social Security Reform:
Early Action Would be Prudent, GAO-05-397T (Washington, D.C.: Mar. 9,
2005); and GAO's Web site on long-term fiscal challenges:
http://www.gao.gov/special.pubs/longterm/.

force participation rate of men over age 55 has increased, and it is
projected to continue to increase in the future. After hitting a low point
of approximately 65 percent in 1994, the rate for this group rose to more
than 69 percent in 2002, and the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) projects
it will be almost 70 percent in 2012. For men 65 and older, the rate also
increased, to about 19 percent, and is projected to rise to nearly 21
percent by 2012. Similarly, the labor force participation rate of women
over 55 has continued to increase. For women 55 to 64, the rate rose to
more than 56 percent by 2004 and is projected to grow to over 60 percent
by 2012. (See fig. 5.)

Figure 5: Labor Force Participation at Older Ages Is Projected to Rise
Slightly

Labor force participation rate 90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

Women 65+

Men 65+

Women 55-64

Men 55-64

Source: United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, Labor Force Statistics
from the Current Population Survey, http://www.bls.gov/data/home.htm.

These recent increases in labor force participation by older workers are
encouraging. If Americans increase the number of years they work it could
ease pressure on government retirement programs by increasing revenues to
the Social Security and Medicare trust funds. In addition, individuals can
significantly improve their standard of living in retirement. By remaining
in the labor force, workers continue to earn income and delay drawing down
assets such as pensions and personal savings, resulting in a

1970 1972 1974

1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004

Many Factors Influence Workers' Retirement and Employment Decisions

shorter period over which they have to budget their resources. Some
researchers have found that delaying retirement can substantially increase
annual income in retirement.5 For example, they found that postponing
retirement from age 55 to age 65 could nearly double real annual income at
age 75.

Although some people can benefit by remaining in the labor force at later
ages, others may be unable or unwilling to do so. For those who are able,
there are many factors that influence their choices. These include the
eligibility rules of both employer pension plans and Social Security, an
individual's health status, the need for health insurance, personal
preference, and the employment status of a spouse. The availability of
suitable employment, including part-time work or flexible work
arrangements, may also affect the retirement and employment choices of
older workers.

                               Eligibility Rules

Depending on the eligibility rules and schedule of benefits, it can
sometimes be more advantageous for workers to retire than to continue
employment. The eligibility age for full Social Security benefits is
currently 65 years and 6 months and rising, with reduced benefits
available at age 62.6 Data from 2002 show that a majority of people (56.1
percent) elect to start benefits at age 62.7 Another important retirement
incentive is eligibility for employer-provided pension benefits. In the
United States, less than half of the labor force has some type of
employer-provided pension coverage. In some cases the rules governing
these plans create incentives to retire, even for those who may prefer to
continue working.

                                 Health Status

Health status and occupation are other key factors that influence the
decision to work at older ages. As people age, they tend to encounter more

5Butrica, Johnson, Smith, and Steuerle, "Does Work Pay at Older Ages?"
Urban Institute. December 2004.

6The full eligibility age (or normal retirement age) for Social Security
benefits is being raised from 65 to 67 from 2000 to 2022. The reduction
for taking benefits at age 62 was 20 percent when the full eligibility age
was 65. When the age increase to 67 is fully implemented, the reduction
will be 30 percent.

7"2004 Green Book: Background Material and Data on the Programs within the
Jurisdiction of the House Committee on Ways and Means," March 2004, p.
1-47.

health problems that make it more difficult to continue working or to work
full-time. Thus, jobs that are physically demanding, usually found in the
blue-collar and service sectors of the economy, can be difficult for many
people to perform at older ages. Moreover, health status and occupation
are often interrelated since health can be affected by work environment.
Although blue-collar and service sector workers may continue to face
significant health problems, there is evidence that the health of older
persons generally is improving. Research has shown that the majority of
workers aged 62 to 67 do not appear to have health limitations that would
prevent them from extending their careers, although some could face severe
challenges in attempting to remain in the workforce.8 In general, however,
today's older population may have an increased capacity to work compared
with that of previous generations.

                                Health Insurance

Rising health care costs have made the availability of health insurance
and anticipated medical expenditures important factors in the decision to
retire. As health care costs continue to rise, many employers have decided
to discontinue their retiree health benefits. A recent study estimated
that the percentage of after-tax income spent on health care will
approximately double for older married couples and singles by 2030.9
People at the lower end of the income distribution will be the most
adversely affected. The study projected that by 2030 those in the bottom
20 percent of the income distribution would spend more than 50 percent of
their after-tax income on insurance premiums and health care expenses, an
increase of 30 percentage points from 2000. Continued employment could
provide older workers with more income to help finance health care and in
some cases could provide them with employer-sponsored health insurance.
However, those least able to work at older ages may also be those with
higher health care expenses.

Personal Preference 	Researchers have also found that some older workers
choose to remain in the labor force for reasons of physical and mental
well-being. In recent

8See GAO, Social Security Reform: Raising Retirement Ages Improves Program
Solvency but May Cause Hardship for Some, GAO/T-HEHS-98-207 (Washington
D.C.: July 15, 1998).

9Richard W. Johnson and Rudolph G. Penner, "Will Health Care Costs Erode
Retirement Security?" Issue in Brief, Center for Retirement Research at
Boston College, October 2004, No. 23.

surveys by AARP,10 Watson Wyatt,11 and the Employee Benefit Research
Institute (EBRI),12 older workers and retirees indicated that, in addition
to financial considerations, enjoyment of work and a desire to stay active
were important reasons to decide to work in retirement. For example, in
the 2004 Retirement Confidence Survey done by EBRI, retirees most often
said they worked for pay because they enjoyed working and wanted to stay
involved (66 percent); yet a large majority also identify at least one
financial reason for having worked (81 percent).

Spouse 	In addition, the labor force status of a spouse affects the
retirement decision of an older worker. A recent study found that older
married couples tend to retire at the same time.13 Another study which
analyzed the retirement behavior of married men and women separately found
that men were more likely to retire if their wife was also retired, but
women were not significantly affected by the labor force status of their
husbands.14

Alternative Work Arrangements

The labor force decisions of older persons are also influenced by the
availability of alternatives to full-time employment. In the United
States, there has been interest among older workers who wish to work
longer in seeking employment arrangements that allow them to work
part-time in retirement. We define partial retirement as a reduction in
hours from full-time to part-time work. A partial retiree may have
transitioned directly from full- to part-time work at either a current or
a new job, or may have returned to work after full retirement. Although
surveys indicate that

10S. Kathi Brown, "Attitudes of Individuals 50 and Older toward Phased
Retirement," AARP Research Report, March 2005.

11Watson Wyatt, Phased Retirement: Aligning Employer Programs with Worker
Preferences. 2004

12Employee Benefit Research Institute, Encouraging Workers to Save: The
2005 Retirement Confidence Survey. Issue Brief No. 280, April 2005.

13Richard W. Johnson, "Do Spouses Coordinate Their Retirement Decisions?"
Issue in Brief, Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, July
2004, No. 19.

14Courtney Coile, "Retirement Incentives and Couples' Retirement
Decisions," NBER Working Paper No. 9496, February 2003.

many older workers would like to partially retire,15 prior GAO work found
that offering such options is not a widespread practice among private
employers and does not involve large numbers of workers at individual
firms.16

Employment Opportunities

Conclusions

Labor force participation is not solely the workers' decision-there must
also be an effective demand for their labor. Employers' perceptions or
biases against older workers may form potential barriers to older workers'
retaining their current jobs, finding new jobs, or reentering the work
force after retiring. For example, employers may feel that it is more
difficult to recoup the costs of hiring and training older workers. All
other things being equal, older workers can also raise an employer's cost
of providing health insurance. Older workers may also face an obstacle
because of a negative perception among employers about their productivity.
Although the Age Discrimination in Employment Act protects those age 40
and over from age-based discrimination in the workplace, complaints to the
Equal Employment Opportunity Commission suggest that such discrimination
does still occur.

To the extent that people choose to work longer as they live longer, the
increase in the amount of time spent in retirement could be diminished. By
staying in the workforce, older workers could ease financial pressures on
Social Security and Medicare, as well as mitigate the expected slowdown in
labor force growth. The additional income from earnings also could provide
older Americans with greater resources in retirement and improve their
financial security.

Many older Americans are both willing and able to continue working at
older ages. As described above, increased labor force participation of
older workers would benefit both the economy and individuals. Thus, it is
important to (1) encourage more widespread availability of flexible
employment arrangements, such as partial retirement, which would make

15See Laurene A. Graig and Valerie Paganelli, "Phased Retirement:
Reshaping the End of Work," Compensation and Benefits Management, Vol. 16,
No. 2, Spring and S. Kathi Brown, "Attitudes of Individuals 50 and Older
toward Phased Retirement," AARP Research Report, March 2005.

16See GAO, Older Workers: Demographic Trends Pose Challenges for Employers
and Workers, GAO-02-85 (Washington D.C.: November 2001).

GAO Contacts and Staff Acknowledgments

(130473)

it easier for older workers to continue working, and (2) remove incentives
that may induce older workers, who would otherwise choose to continue
working, to retire.

For those older Americans who are able to work, policies, programs, and
alternative employment arrangements that help to extend their working life
can enhance future supplies of skilled workers, bolster economic growth,
and help many people secure adequate retirement income. We at GAO look
forward to continuing to work with this Committee and the Congress in
addressing this and other important issues facing our nation.

Mr. Chairman, Mr. Kohl, members of the Committee, that concludes my
statement. I'd be happy to answer any questions you may have.

For further information regarding this testimony, please contact Barbara
D. Bovbjerg, Director,or Alicia Puente Cackley, Assistant Director, at
(202) 512-7215. Other individuals making key contributions to this
testimony included Mindy Bowman, Sharon Hermes, and Kristy Kennedy.

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