U.S. Postal Service: Despite Recent Progress, Postal Reform	 
Legislation Is Still Needed (14-APR-05, GAO-05-453T).		 
                                                                 
Both the Presidential Commission on the U.S. Postal Service and  
GAO's past work have reported that universal postal service is at
risk and that comprehensive postal reform legislation is needed  
to minimize the risk of a significant taxpayer bailout or	 
dramatic postal rate increases. In April 2001, GAO added the	 
Postal Service's (the Service) transformation efforts and	 
long-term outlook to its High-Risk List. GAO has testified that  
comprehensive postal reform legislation is needed to clarify the 
Service's mission and role; enhance governance, transparency, and
accountability; improve regulation of postal rates and oversight;
help to ensure the rationalization of the Service's		 
infrastructure and workforce; and make certain human capital	 
reforms. The Service has made significant progress on some of its
key challenges but postal reform legislation continues to be	 
needed in order to facilitate a broader transformation effort. To
help Congress and other stakeholders understand Service progress 
and the need for postal reform, GAO will focus on (1) Service	 
progress since GAO put Service transformation efforts and	 
long-term outlook on GAO's High-Risk List, (2) why comprehensive 
postal reform legislation is needed, and (3) key areas for	 
comprehensive postal reform. This testimony is based on an update
of GAO's statement to Congress last year.			 
-------------------------Indexing Terms------------------------- 
REPORTNUM:   GAO-05-453T					        
    ACCNO:   A21697						        
  TITLE:     U.S. Postal Service: Despite Recent Progress, Postal     
Reform Legislation Is Still Needed				 
     DATE:   04/14/2005 
  SUBJECT:   Accountability					 
	     Agency missions					 
	     Cost analysis					 
	     Federal agency reorganization			 
	     Federal legislation				 
	     Financial analysis 				 
	     Financial management				 
	     Government retirement benefits			 
	     Internal controls					 
	     Performance management				 
	     Performance measures				 
	     Postal rates					 
	     Postal service					 
	     Postal service employees				 
	     Productivity in government 			 
	     Strategic planning 				 
	     Benefit-cost tracking				 
	     High Risk Series 2001				 

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GAO-05-453T

United States Government Accountability Office

GAO Testimony

Before the Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs, U.S.
Senate

For Release on Delivery

Expected at 2:00 p.m. EDT U.S. POSTAL SERVICE

Thursday, April 14, 2005

       Despite Recent Progress, Postal Reform Legislation Is Still Needed

Statement of David M. Walker Comptroller General of the United States

GAO-05-453T

Highlights of GAO-05-453T, a testimony before the Senate Committee on
Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs

Both the Presidential Commission on the U.S. Postal Service and GAO's past
work have reported that universal postal service is at risk and that
comprehensive postal reform legislation is needed to minimize the risk of
a significant taxpayer bailout or dramatic postal rate increases. In April
2001, GAO added the Postal Service's (the Service) transformation efforts
and long-term outlook to its High-Risk List. GAO has testified that
comprehensive postal reform legislation is needed to clarify the Service's
mission and role; enhance governance, transparency, and accountability;
improve regulation of postal rates and oversight; help to ensure the
rationalization of the Service's infrastructure and workforce; and make
certain human capital reforms.

The Service has made significant progress on some of its key challenges
but postal reform legislation continues to be needed in order to
facilitate a broader transformation effort. To help Congress and other
stakeholders understand Service progress and the need for postal reform,
GAO will focus on (1) Service progress since GAO put Service
transformation efforts and long-term outlook on GAO's High-Risk List, (2)
why comprehensive postal reform legislation is needed, and (3) key areas
for comprehensive postal reform. This testimony is based on an update of
GAO's statement to the Committee last year.

www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO-05-453T.

To view the full product click on the link above. For more information,
contact Katherine Siggerud at (202) 512-2834 or [email protected].

April 14, 2005

U.S. POSTAL SERVICE

Despite Recent Progress, Postal Reform Legislation Is Still Needed

The Postal Service has made significant progress since its transformation
efforts and long-term outlook were added to GAO's High-Risk List in 2001,
including achieving record net income, repaying most debt, increasing
productivity, and downsizing the postal workforce. However, the Service's
financial progress was largely due to a transitory boost provided by 2003
pension reform legislation that reduced the Service's pension costs in
fiscal years 2003 through 2005, but also benefited from increased Standard
Mail volume and revenues, and certain cost-cutting and efficiency
initiatives.

Despite this progress, comprehensive postal reform legislation is needed
to address the continuing financial, operational, governance, and human
capital challenges that threaten the Service's long-term ability to
provide high-quality, universal postal service at affordable rates. The
Service's core business of First-Class Mail is declining, squeezing
revenues available to help fund universal service costs. Meanwhile,
compensation and benefits costs are rising despite workforce downsizing.
The Service's financial liabilities and obligations of roughly $70 billion
to $80 billion include about $50 billion to $60 billion in unfunded
retiree health benefits. Progress is needed to move toward prefunding
these benefits, and to increase productivity to offset rising costs,
rationalize the Service's infrastructure and workforce, and implement more
market-based and performanceoriented compensation systems for all
employees. However, progress is hindered by limited flexibility and
incentives for success under current law.

First-Class Mail Volume Growth/Decline, Fiscal Years 1984 through 2004

Key elements for postal reform include clarifying the Service's mission
and role so that the Service remains focused on universal postal service
and competes appropriately; enhancing the Service's flexibility to operate
in a businesslike manner with a governance structure suitable for a
$70-billion entity, balanced by enhanced transparency, accountability, and
oversight; making needed human capital reforms; and moving toward
prefunding retiree health benefits.

Chairman Collins, Senator Lieberman, and Members of the Committee:

I am pleased to be here today to participate in this hearing on postal
reform. Today, I will focus on (1) the Postal Service (the Service)
results since we put its transformation efforts and long-term outlook on
our High-Risk List in 2001, (2) the need for comprehensive postal reform,
and (3) selected key areas for postal reform. This testimony is an update
of our last statement to the Committee.1 Our bottom line is that the
Service has made significant progress since 2001, but its recent financial
success was largely due to a transitory boost provided by 2003 pension
reform legislation. Comprehensive postal reform is urgently needed because
the Service's fundamental transformation challenges continue to exist,
thereby placing universal postal service at risk. Because comprehensive
postal reform legislation has not been enacted and the Service continues
to face formidable competition, cost and other challenges, its
transformation efforts and long-term outlook remain on our High-Risk List.
More specifically:

o  	The Service has made significant progress since fiscal year 2001,
including achieving record net income, repaying debt, achieving additional
productivity increases, and downsizing the postal workforce.2 However,
most net income was due to a 2003 law3 that reduced Service pension
benefit payments for fiscal years 2003 through 2005. Starting in fiscal
year 2006, these "savings" 4 must be set aside in a dedicated escrow
account. Under the 2003 law, the Service cannot use the funds in the
escrow account unless Congress eliminates the escrow requirement or
specifies by law how the escrow funds may be used. Legislative proposals
would abolish the escrow and require the Service to begin prefunding
existing and future Service obligations for retiree health benefits.

o  	Comprehensive postal reform legislation continues to be needed to
address the fundamental financial, operational, governance, and human

1GAO, U.S. Postal Service: Key Reasons for Postal Reform, GAO-04-565T
(Washington, D.C.: Mar. 23, 2004).

2GAO, High-Risk Series: An Update, GAO-05-207 (Washington, D.C.: January
2005)

3The Postal Civil Service Retirement System (CSRS) Funding Reform Act of
2003 (P.L. 108

18) was enacted in response to Office of Personnel Management's finding
that the Service was on course to overfund its CSRS obligations.

4GAO, Postal Pension Funding Reform: Issues Related to the Postal
Service's Proposed Use of Pension Savings, GAO-04-238 (Washington, D.C.:
Nov. 26, 2003).

capital challenges that continue to threaten the Service's long-term
ability to remain self-supporting while providing high-quality, universal
postal service at affordable rates. The Service's core business of
First-Class Mail continues to decline, squeezing revenues available to pay
universal service costs. Meanwhile, compensation and benefits costs
continue to rise despite decreases in the number of postal employees. The
Service's financial liabilities and obligations of roughly $70 billion to
$80 billion are comprised of roughly $50 billion to $60 billion in
unfunded retiree health benefits. The current pay-as-you-go approach for
these benefits will likely lead to more dramatic and frequent postal rate
increases in the future. Progress is needed to move toward prefunding
these benefits as well as increasing productivity to offset rising costs,
rationalizing and restructuring the outmoded postal infrastructure,
rightsizing the postal workforce, and implementing more market-based and
performanceoriented compensation systems for all employees. In this
regard, progress is hindered by the Service's limited flexibility and
incentives for success under current law.

o  	Key areas for postal reform include clarifying the Service's mission
and role so that the Service remains focused on universal postal service
and competes appropriately; enhancing the Service's flexibility to operate
in a businesslike manner with a governance structure suitable for a
$70-billion entity, balanced by enhanced transparency, accountability, and
oversight; making needed human capital reforms; and moving toward
prefunding retiree health benefits. It is important that Congress act
before the Service faces a crisis that could limit congressional options,
particularly because it will take time for the Service to implement any
major changes.

In this section of my testimony, I will highlight significant progress the
Service has made since we placed its transformation efforts and long-term

                                 Postal Service

                                    Progress

                         outlook on our High-Risk List.

Record Net Income Largely Resulted from Pension Legislation

The Service earned a total of $7 billion in fiscal years 2003 and 2004
combined (see fig. 1) and expects to earn more than $1 billion in fiscal
year 2005. However, this net income largely resulted from 2003 legislation
that reduced Service pension benefit payments by $6.2 billion in fiscal
years 2003 and 2004 combined and $2.8 billion in fiscal year 2005. This
legislation has enabled the Service to keep postal rates stable since 2002
and promise not to raise rates until 2006. Absent the 2003 legislation,
the Service likely would already have raised postal rates to avoid
deficits. Net income also benefited from higher revenues associated with
increased

volumes of Standard Mail (primarily advertising), as well as certain
Service cost-cutting and efficiency initiatives.

Figure 1: Postal Service Net Income, Fiscal Years 1972 through 2004

Dollars in billions

                                      4.0

Postal Service debt was reduced from a peak of $11.3 billion at the end of
fiscal year 2001 to $1.8 billion at end of fiscal year 2004 (see fig. 2).
Debt repayment, which has continued in fiscal year 2005, was primarily
enabled by pension legislation, previously discussed in this testimony, as
well as restraint over capital spending that further reduced the Service's
need for borrowing. For example, the Service imposed a temporary freeze on
most new capital facility projects in fiscal year 2001 that has since been
lifted.5

5Congress appropriated more than $1 billion to the Service for emergency
preparedness funding, including $503 million in December 2004. The Service
has requested $51 million in emergency preparedness appropriations for
fiscal year 2006.

                                      3.5

                                      3.0

                                      2.5

                                      2.0

                                      1.5

                                      1.0

                                      0.5

                                      0.0

                                      -0.5

                                      -1.0

                                      -1.5

-2.0 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
                                   2002 2004

Fical years

                          Source: U.S. Postal Service.

                             The Postal Service Has
                            Repaid Most of Its Debt

         Figure 2: Postal Service Debt, Fiscal Years 1972 through 2004

                             Dollars in billions 12

                                      10 8

                                       6

                                       4

                                       2

                                       0

1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
2002 2004

Fiscal year Source: U.S. Postal Service.

Postal Service Productivity Postal Service productivity increased by 5.2
percent from fiscal years 2001

Has Continued to Increase 	to 2004, reaching its highest level since
fiscal year 1972 (see fig. 3). Productivity rose as a result of many
factors, notably cost containment resulting from large reductions in work
hours enabled by automation, information technology and other efficiency
initiatives; as well as restraint over capital spending.

Figure 3: Cumulative Productivity Growth, Fiscal Years 1972 through 2004
Cumulative percentage change

                                       20

The Postal Service downsized its workforce by 9.4 percent from fiscal
years 2001 to 2004; primarily from reductions in the number of career
postal employees (see fig. 4). This decline reduced the size of the
Service's career workforce to about 707,000 at the end of fiscal year
2004, which was its lowest level since fiscal year 1993. Workforce
reductions were made through attrition instead of layoffs, as employees
retired and were not replaced, notably in mail processing and
administrative functions affected by automation and information
technology. Moreover, the number of career letter carriers was also
reduced slightly despite a 3 percent increase in the number of delivery
points, as more mail was sorted by automation equipment into the order of
delivery.

                                       15

                                      10 5

  0 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
                             2002 2004 Fiscal years

                          Source: U.S. Postal Service.

The Postal Service Has Downsized Its Workforce

Figure 4: Number of Postal Service Employees, Fiscal Years 1984 through
2004

The Need for Postal Key trends and challenges demonstrate the need for
postal reform:

Reform Declining First-Class Mail volume: The Service's core business of
First-Class Mail volume growth has shown a downward trend since the
mid1980s and declined annually since fiscal year 2001-a first-time
occurrence (see fig. 5). This trend is expected to continue for the
foreseeable future, as customers continue to increase their use of
electronic alternatives for communications and payments.

Figure 5: First-Class Mail Volume Growth/Decline, Fiscal Years 1984
through 2004

Declining First-Class Mail volume poses a fundamental challenge to the
Service's long-term viability. First-Class Mail generates about half of
the Service's mail volume, more than half of its revenues, and covers more
than two-thirds of the Service's overhead costs (see fig. 6). About half
of overhead costs, also referred to as institutional costs,6 are comprised
of

the universal service costs of maintaining postal delivery and retail
networks. Declining First-Class Mail volume is causing a loss of
First-Class Mail revenues to cover overhead costs, which will be difficult
to recover from other classes of mail.

6Institutional costs comprise roughly 40 percent of all postal costs and
are defined as costs that are not attributed to specific products and
services.

Figure 6: Mail Volume, Revenues, and Contribution to Cover Overhead Costs,
Fiscal Year 2004

Contribution to cover Mail volume Postal Service revenues overhead costs

First-Class Mail First-Class Mail First-Class Mail Standard Mail Standard
Mail Standard Mail Other mail Other mail and services Other mail and
services

Source: U.S. Postal Service.

Note: Contribution data are the most recent available according to Postal
Rate Commission methodology.

aOther mail includes mail such as magazines, newspapers, and parcels.
Other services include postal services such as post office boxes, money
orders, and delivery confirmation.

Changes in the mail mix: The shift in the Service's mail mix from
First-Class Mail to Standard Mail has resulted in shrinking revenues to
cover overhead costs. Standard Mail volume grew to nearly match
First-Class Mail in fiscal year 2004 (see fig. 7) and is expected to
exceed First-Class Mail in fiscal year 2005. However, compared with
First-Class Mail, the average piece of Standard Mail generates only about
half of the revenues and less than 40 percent of the contribution to cover
overhead costs.

Figure 7: First-Class Mail and Standard Mail Volume, Fiscal Years 1990
through 2004

Pieces in billions

120

100

80

60

20

0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
2004

Fiscal year

First-Class Mail

Standard Mail

Source: U.S. Postal Service.

Increased competition from private delivery companies: Private delivery
companies dominate the market for parcels over 2 pounds and appear to be
making inroads into the market for small parcels. Once a highly profitable
growth product for the Service, Priority Mail volume has declined about 30
percent since its volume peaked in fiscal year 2000 (see fig. 8) as the
highly competitive parcel market has turned to lower-priced ground
shipment alternatives. Express Mail volume has also declined for the same
reason. Adding to the competition, United Parcel Service (UPS) and FedEx
have established national retail networks through UPS's acquisition of
MailBoxes Etc., now called UPS Stores, and FedEx's acquisition of Kinko's.

Figure 8: Priority Mail Volume, Fiscal Years 1990 through 2004

Pieces in billions

1,400

1,200

1,000

800

600

400

200

0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
2004

Fiscal years

Source: U.S. Postal Service.

Subpar revenue growth: Postal revenue growth has slowed in recent years
(see fig. 9) due to declining First-Class Mail volume and shifts in the
mail mix to lower-margin products. As noted previously, the Service's
record net income was largely due to lower pension costs instead of rising
mail revenues. If revenues continue to be affected by mail volume trends,
that will lead to greater reliance on rate increases to produce needed
revenues.

Figure 9: Postal Service Revenue Growth, Fiscal Years 1990 through 2004

Annual percentage change

12

10

8

6

4

2

0 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
2004

Fiscal years

No rate increase in fiscal year

Rate increase implemented in fiscal year

Source: U.S. Postal Service.

Note: Average postal rates increased 19.9 percent in fiscal year 1991,
10.2 percent in fiscal year 1995, 2.8 percent in fiscal year 1999, 6.3
percent in fiscal year 2001, and 7.7 percent in fiscal year 2002.

Rising costs: Key Service costs continue to rise despite continued
downsizing and cost-cutting efforts, creating upward pressure on postal
rates. In fiscal year 2004, Service compensation and benefit costs
increased $1.7 billion, despite a decrease of nearly 22,000 career
employees from the prior fiscal year. This cost growth was due to (1) wage
increases for craft employees, including cost-of-living adjustments plus
basic pay increases; (2) rising benefits costs, including about $500
million in additional health benefits costs for active employees and
retirees; and (3) additional workload to serve 1.8 million new delivery
points and handle increased Standard Mail volume.

Significant financial liabilities and obligations: The Service estimated
it had roughly $70 billion to $80 billion in liabilities and obligations
at the end of fiscal year 2004, including roughly $50 billion to $60
billion in unfunded retiree health benefits that were not reported on its
balance

sheet. Given the Service's workforce demographics and health care trends,
its payments for retiree health benefits are projected to rise throughout
the next 3 decades (see fig. 10). The Service will have difficulty
financing these benefit costs, particularly if unfavorable revenue and
cost trends continue.

Figure 10: Postal Service Health Benefits Costs, Fiscal Years 1990 through
2040

Dollars in billions 20

15

10

5

0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2038 2040 Fiscal year

Total employees

Retirees (actual)

Retirees (projected) Source: U.S. Postal Service.

Note: Projections are based on current law.

Need for substantial improvements in postal productivity: Substantial
productivity increases continue to be needed to help keep postal rates
affordable, particularly given trends in declining First-Class Mail volume
and rising costs. Some productivity increases may result from initiatives
to standardize processes among mail processing plants where productivity
varies widely. However, it is important to recognize that the current
legal framework provides the Service with limited incentives for
increasing its productivity. Under the Service's break-even mandate and
statutory monopoly to deliver letter mail, no matter how little
productivity increases, the Service can raise rates to cover rising costs.
However, as postal management has recognized, while raising rates may
provide an immediate boost to postal revenues in the short run, raising
rates may also

accelerate the diversion of First-Class Mail to other alternatives, thus
exacerbating the Service's problems in the long run.

Uncertainties regarding postal infrastructure: The Service is using an
"evolutionary" approach to develop a more efficient and flexible
infrastructure but has disclosed limited information about its overall
plans. The Service risks falling short of achieving its goals of
rationalizing its infrastructure and workforce and removing excess
capacity from its mail processing, distribution, and transportation
networks unless it has a clear strategy that includes a comprehensive and
integrated plan along with clear criteria as a basis for its decisions,
measures to assess the impact of actions taken, and a process for
informing key stakeholders, including the Congress.

  Key Areas for Postal Reform

Postal reform is needed to address the following key areas:7

o  	Mission and role: Congress needs to (1) clarify the Service's mission,
because current law has enabled the Service to engage in unprofitable
initiatives that are unrelated to its core mission, as well as (2) clarify
the Service's role in competing fairly, including its monopoly to deliver
letter mail, its authority to regulate the scope of its own monopoly, and
other terms of competition.

o  	Governance, transparency, and accountability: Congress needs to (1)
delineate public policy, operational, and regulatory responsibilities; (2)
ensure managerial accountability through a strong, well-qualified
corporate-style board that holds its officers responsible and accountable
for achieving real results; and (3) define appropriate reporting
mechanisms to enhance the Service's transparency and accountability for
financial and performance results.

o  	Flexibility and oversight: Congress needs to balance (1) increased
flexibility for the Service to operate in a businesslike manner, through
streamlining the rate-setting process and allowing a certain amount of
retained earnings, with (2) enhanced oversight by an independent
regulatory body to protect postal customers against undue discrimination,
restrict cross-subsidies, and ensure due process. In addition, the Service

7U.S. Postal Service: Key Elements of Comprehensive Postal Reform,
GAO-04-397T (Washington, D.C.: Jan. 28, 2004); U.S. Postal Service: Bold
Action Needed to Continue Progress on Postal Transformation, GAO-04-108T
(Washington, D.C.: Nov. 5, 2003).

needs additional flexibility and incentives to rightsize its
infrastructure and reshape its workforce. Additional flexibility should be
balanced by safeguards to prevent abuse as well as enhanced transparency,
accountability, and oversight, starting with appropriate disclosure of the
Service's large financial liabilities and obligations.

o  	Human capital reforms and pension benefit costs: Congress needs to
consider legislative proposals that would (1) revise the Service's current
responsibility for pension costs related to military service, (2) move
toward prefunding retiree health benefits, and (3) abolish the escrow
account established in recent pension legislation. Congress also needs to
decide whether postal workers' compensation benefits should be on par with
those in the private sector and to clarify related pay comparability
standards. In any event, progress continues to be needed toward flexible,
contemporary, performance-oriented, and market-based compensation systems
for all Service employees, consistent with proven approaches to strategic
human capital management.

  Contact and Acknowledgments

(542060)

Chairman Collins, this concludes my prepared statement. I would be pleased
to respond to any questions that you or the Members of the Committee may
have.

For further information regarding this statement, please contact Katherine
Siggerud, Director, Physical Infrastructure Issues at (202) 512-2834 or at
[email protected]. Individuals making key contributions to this statement
included Teresa Anderson, Kenneth E. John, Shirley Abel, Kevin Bailey,
Gerald P. Barnes, Nancy Boardman, Linda Calbom, Margaret Cigno, Kathleen
A. Gilhooly, Donna Leiss, and Laura Shumway.

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