Climate Change Assessment: Administration Did Not Meet Reporting 
Deadline (14-APR-05, GAO-05-338R).				 
                                                                 
For many years, scientists have observed a warming trend in the  
earth's climate and have projected additional changes in the	 
coming decades, with potential implications for human society. To
provide for the development and coordination of a comprehensive  
and integrated U.S. research program that will assist the nation 
and the world in understanding, assessing, predicting, and	 
responding to such changes, the Congress, in the Global Change	 
Research Act of 1990 (act), required the administration to, among
other things, prepare a national global change research plan, a  
summary of the achievements and expenditures in the area of	 
federal climate change research, and a scientific assessment. The
scientific assessment is to be prepared at least every 4 years	 
and is to: (1) integrate, evaluate, and interpret research	 
findings on climate change of the Global Change Research Program 
(implemented under the Global Change Research Plan) and 	 
scientific uncertainties associated with such findings; (2)	 
analyze the effects of global change on the natural environment, 
human health and welfare, and other specified areas; and (3)	 
analyze current trends in global change and project major trends 
for the next 25 to 100 years. In 2002, the President announced	 
the creation of the interagency Climate Change Science Program	 
(CCSP) to coordinate and direct U.S. research efforts in the area
of climate change. CCSP is now responsible for producing and	 
submitting the climate change assessment and is led by the	 
Assistant Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere at the Department  
of Commerce. In July 2003, CCSP's strategic plan was transmitted 
to the Congress. The strategic plan contained a schedule for	 
preparing the next assessment by publishing 21 reports, each	 
focusing on a specific topic. Congress asked us to evaluate the  
extent to which CCSP's planned assessment meets the requirements 
of the act regarding the timing and content of such an		 
assessment.							 
-------------------------Indexing Terms------------------------- 
REPORTNUM:   GAO-05-338R					        
    ACCNO:   A21679						        
  TITLE:     Climate Change Assessment: Administration Did Not Meet   
Reporting Deadline						 
     DATE:   04/14/2005 
  SUBJECT:   Atmospheric research				 
	     Climate statistics 				 
	     Earth sciences research				 
	     Environment evaluation				 
	     Environmental monitoring				 
	     Environmental research				 
	     Federal law					 
	     Meteorological research				 
	     Reporting requirements				 
	     Research programs					 
	     Strategic planning 				 
	     Assessments					 
	     Climate Change Science Program			 
	     U.S. Global Change Research Program		 

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GAO-05-338R

United States Government Accountability Office Washington, DC 20548

April 14, 2005

The Honorable John McCain The Honorable John F. Kerry United States Senate

Subject:	Climate Change Assessment: Administration Did Not Meet Reporting
Deadline

For many years, scientists have observed a warming trend in the earth's
climate and have projected additional changes in the coming decades, with
potential implications for human society. To provide for the development
and coordination of a comprehensive and integrated U.S. research program
that will assist the nation and the world in understanding, assessing,
predicting, and responding to such changes, the Congress, in the Global
Change Research Act of 1990 (act), required the administration to, among
other things, prepare a national global change research plan, a summary of
the achievements and expenditures in the area of federal climate change
research, and a scientific assessment. The scientific assessment is to be
prepared at least every 4 years and is to

(1) integrate, evaluate, and interpret research findings on climate change
of the Global Change Research Program (implemented under the Global Change
Research Plan) and scientific uncertainties associated with such findings;

(2) analyze the effects of global change on the natural environment, human
health and welfare, and other specified areas; and

(3) analyze current trends in global change and project major trends for
the next 25 to 100 years.

The first scientific assessment under the act was completed in November
2000, when the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) in the
Executive Office of the President1 transmitted to the Congress a 600-plus
page report entitled Climate

1OSTP submitted the assessment, which was prepared by the National
Assessment Synthesis Team, a committee of experts.

Change Impacts on the United States: The Potential Consequences of Climate
Variability and Change. The report sought to identify the key climatic
vulnerabilities of particular regions of the country and sectors of the
economy in the context of other changes in the nation's environment,
resources, and economy. In addition to the full report, the administration
published a 154-page summary of the findings for a more general audience.
Detailed reports were also published on the possible impacts of climate
change on specific regions and the possible effects of climate change on
various environmental, economic, and social sectors. Some of these reports
were published after November 2000, the final one in 2003.

In 2002, the President announced the creation of the interagency Climate
Change Science Program (CCSP) to coordinate and direct U.S. research
efforts in the area of climate change. CCSP is now responsible for
producing and submitting the climate change assessment and is led by the
Assistant Secretary for Oceans and Atmosphere at the Department of
Commerce. In July 2003, CCSP's strategic plan was transmitted to the
Congress. The strategic plan contained a schedule for preparing the next
assessment by publishing 21 reports, each focusing on a specific topic.

The act also requires preparation of a national global change research
plan. In 2002, under the auspices of CCSP, 13 federal departments and
agencies contributed to the drafting of such a plan, and in December 2002,
CCSP held a climate science workshop in Washington, D.C., at which climate
scientists and other information users provided comments and suggestions
on the draft plan. At CCSP's request, under an agreement called for in the
act, the National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council convened
an expert committee to review the draft. According to the committee's
February 2003 review of CCSP's draft strategic plan, the draft plan was
not likely to produce deliverables, such as written reports, within 4
years. In response, CCSP officials developed a set of potential research
topics that they believed would both satisfy the need for deliverables and
meet the act's reporting requirements. These research topics were
subsequently reduced to 21 topics, which became the foundation of the
current assessment.

You asked us to evaluate the extent to which CCSP's planned assessment
meets the requirements of the act regarding the timing and content of such
an assessment. In conducting our work, we reviewed and analyzed the act,
its legislative history, and agency documents. We also interviewed the
CCSP Director and other Department of Commerce officials. We conducted our
work between June 2004 and February 2005 in accordance with generally
accepted government auditing standards.

CCSP Did Not Submit an Assessment in 2004, as Required

CCSP did not submit a scientific assessment in November 2004, 4 years
after the previous assessment, as required by the act. Instead, CCSP's
July 2003 schedule called for issuing 21 shorter reports between 2005 and
2007. According to that schedule, the first 9 reports are due on or before
September 30, 2005, and the other 12 are due on or before September 30,
2007. Thus, by the time the last of these reports is

published, about 7 years will have elapsed since the publication of the
2000 report- nearly twice the interval specified in the act. Further, the
CCSP Director told us that he was not certain that even the first 9
reports would be published in accordance with this planned schedule. Of
these 9 reports, a specific timeline is in place for only the first
report, and that report is on schedule. For 3 other reports, draft
prospectuses, the first step in the writing process, have been released
for public comment, but for the remaining 5 reports, originally planned
for September 2005, no prospectuses had been published as of February
2005. Those reports are now expected to be completed up to a year later
than planned, September 2006. The remaining 12 reports are currently
expected to be completed by September 2007, according to the CCSP
Strategic Plan. The Director said the completion of these 12 reports would
be affected to some extent by the delay in issuing the first 9 reports,
but the delay would be less than 12 months.

According to the CCSP Director, work on the reports was delayed for three
reasons: (1) the CCSP Committee, consisting of senior members of 13
federal departments and agencies overseen by three entities of the
Executive Office of the President, underestimated the complexity and scope
of the work involved to produce the reports; (2) the guidelines for
preparing the assessment were delayed as a result of extensive legal
discussions that included discussions about compliance with the Data
Quality Act and Office of Management and Budget guidance on peer review;
and (3) the director was severely ill for the better part of a year when
the assessment was getting started, which slowed early momentum.

The CCSP Director also told us that, considering the number of
advancements in science and technology today compared with 1990, 4 years
may not be enough time to complete a comprehensive assessment, such as
that called for under the act. Further, over the past decade and a half,
federally sponsored climate research has greatly expanded. For example, in
fiscal year 1991, 9 agencies spent $954 million on climate change science,
compared with fiscal year 2004, when 12 agencies spent about $2 billion on
climate change science. This has increased the burden of analyzing and
synthesizing all of the research. The director also noted that the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, an international body that
assesses scientific, technical, and socio-economic information on climate
change, uses a 7-year reporting cycle.

Unclear How CCSP's Planned Reports Will Explicitly Address All Required
Assessment Topics

It is unclear how the 21 reports proposed in CCSP's July 2003 strategic
plan will address all three of the components of the assessment required
under the act. The planned report topics generally appear to focus on
either of these components: (1) the evaluation and interpretation of
research findings on climate change and associated scientific
uncertainties or (2) the analysis of current trends in global change and
projection of major trends. (See the enclosure for the planned reports and
their estimated publication dates.) However, CCSP has no comparable
explicit plan for addressing the other major required component, assessing
the effects of global change on the eight areas enumerated in the act: the
natural environment, agriculture, energy production and use, land and
water resources, transportation,

human health and welfare, human social systems, and biological diversity.
The National Academy of Sciences-National Research Council noted in its
February 2004 review of the final CCSP strategic plan that, "The purpose
of the plan's proposed [reports] must also be clarified, because it is
unclear whether they ... will ... meet the 1990 Global Change Research Act
requirement for impact assessments...." The Council noted that "...some
areas specified in the Act, such as analyzing the effects on energy
production and use, human health and welfare, and human social systems,
are only peripherally addressed by this portfolio of products. Not a
single [report] explicitly addresses the nation's water supply."

CCSP officials agreed that some of the required topics are not explicitly
included on the current list of planned reports, but told us that they are
committed to reporting on all eight areas and are considering using
various means of doing so. For example, a Commerce Department senior
counsel said that as the authors of the 21 reports prepare their outlines,
they will be asked to document how they intend to respond to the act and
will have the opportunity to modify or extend their reports' coverage.
Moreover, the CCSP Director noted that additional reports could be
commissioned if necessary to cover any assessment areas not otherwise
addressed. However, we believe that, without a well-developed plan that
links the reports to the eight assessment areas-and especially because the
currently planned reports will be issued over a 3-year period-the Congress
and other users will not know how, when, and where the eight areas will be
addressed. Further, the CCSP Director stated that there are currently no
plans to integrate and summarize the findings of the 21 individual reports
into a single volume, as was done in 2000.

Conclusions

The 4-year interval between assessments, which was established 15 years
ago, may not allow sufficient time for CCSP to prepare an assessment that
meets all of the act's requirements. We believe that, if the deadline
cannot be met for any future assessments, the CCSP Director should
recommend that the CCSP interagency committee request an extension from
the Congress.

CCSP's approach for reporting on the eight assessment areas contrasts with
its more structured approach for addressing scientific uncertainties and
trends. Without a well-developed plan for how it will address the eight
assessment areas--and especially because the currently planned reports
will be issued over a period of 3 or more years--the Congress and other
users will not know when and where all of the issues will be addressed or
whether the reports meet the requirements established by the act.
Accordingly, we believe that a well-developed plan for addressing all
eight assessment areas would provide assurance to the Congress and others
on when and where all eight areas will be covered.

Because the 21 individual reports are planned to address scientific
uncertainties associated with climate change and other technical subjects
and are to be issued over a period of 3 or more years, it may be difficult
for the Congress and others to use this information effectively as the
basis for making decisions on climate policy. We

believe it would be helpful to the Congress and other users if CCSP
summarized the 21 reports in a single volume for a general audience, as
was done in 2000.

Recommendations

To ensure that the climate change assessments required under the Global
Change Research Act of 1990 present information in a manner that is most
useful for the Congress and the public, we recommend that the CCSP
director take the following three actions:

o  	develop plans to prepare the next assessment within the prescribed
time frame, or if 4 years are insufficient to complete the assessment,
recommend to the CCSP interagency Committee that CCSP request an extension
from the Congress;

o  develop a specific plan to address all eight of the assessment areas;
and

o  	recommend to the CCSP interagency Committee that a summary report be
prepared to integrate the findings of the 21 or more individual reports.

Agency Comments and Our Evaluation

We provided the Assistant Secretary of Commerce for Oceans and Atmosphere,
who also serves as the Director, CCSP, with a draft of this report for
review and comment. He generally agreed with our recommendations, but he
provided no specific information on whether and when he intends to develop
a plan that addresses all eight assessment areas. We continue to believe
that such a plan should be developed. The Director also provided technical
comments, which we incorporated. His comments and our response are
included in enclosure II.

As agreed with your offices, we plan no further distribution of this
report until 30 days after the date of this report. At that time, we will
send copies to the Director, CCSP, and other interested officials. The
report will also be available on GAO's home

page at http://www.gao.gov. If you have questions, please contact me or
David Marwick at (202) 512-3841. Anne K. Johnson was the major contributor
to this report. John Delicath and Amy Webbink also made important
contributions.

John B. Stephenson

Director, Natural Resources and Environment

Enclosures - 2

Enclosure I

            Planned Reports on Topics Related to Climate Uncertainty

In its July 2003 strategic plan, CCSP identified five broad research goals
for climate change, shown in the table below. Under each goal are the
specific topics, 21 in all, that will comprise the national assessment.

      Estimated completion date                                               
           (starting Oct. 2003)                 Report topics
    Reports that extend knowledge of the Earth's past and present climate and
    environment, including its natural variability, and improve understanding
                                           of the causes of observed changes.
                                   Temperature trends in the lower atmosphere 
1             Within 2 years     --steps for understanding and reconciling 
                                                                 differences. 
2             Within 2 years    Past climate variability and change in the 
                                                Arctic and at high latitudes. 
                                   Re-analyses of historical climate data for 
3                  2-4 years    key atmospheric features. Implications for 
                                    attribution of causes of observed change. 
     Reports that improve quantification of the forces bringing about changes
                                  in the Earth's climate and related systems.
                                Updating scenarios of greenhouse gas          
                                emissions and concentrations, in              
4             Within 2 years collaboration with the Climate Change         
                                Technology Program (CCTP). Review of          
                                integrated scenario development and           
                                application.                                  
5                            North American carbon budget and implications 
                 Within 2 years                  for the global carbon cycle. 
6                  2-4 years       Aerosol properties and their impacts on 
                                                                     climate. 
                                Trends in emissions of ozone-depleting        
7                  2-4 years substances, ozone layer recovery, and         
                                implications for ultraviolet radiation        
                                exposure and climate change.                  
    Reports that reduce uncertainty in projections of how the Earth's climate
                                and related systems may change in the future.
                                            Climate models and their uses and 
8             Within 2 years           limitations, including sensitivity, 
                                         feedbacks, and uncertainty analysis. 
                                         Climate projections for research and 
9                  2-4 years       assessment based on emissions scenarios 
                                                      developed through CCTP. 
                                 Climate extremes, including documentation of 
10                 2-4 years     current extremes. Prospects for improving 
                                                                 projections. 
11                 2-4 years    Risks of abrupt changes in global climate. 
    Reports that improve understanding of the sensitivity and adaptability of
    different natural and managed ecosystems and human systems to climate and
                                                      related global changes.

12 Within 2 years     Coastal elevation and sensitivity to sea-level rise. 
                        State-of-knowledge of thresholds of change that could 
13      2-4 years         lead to discontinuities (sudden changes) in some 
                                  ecosystems and climate-sensitive resources. 
14      2-4 years      Relationship between observed ecosystem changes and 
                                                              climate change. 
15      2-4 years             Preliminary review of adaptation options for 
                                  climate-sensitive ecosystems and resources. 
                               Scenario-based analysis of the climatological, 
16      2-4 years     environmental, resource, technological, and economic 
                      implications of different atmospheric concentrations of 
                                                            greenhouse gases. 
17      2-4 years  State-of-the-science of socioeconomic and environmental 
                                              impacts of climate variability. 
                       Within the transportation sector, a summary of climate 
18      2-4 years change and variability sensitivities, potential impacts, 
                                                        and response options. 
            Reports that explore the uses and identify the limits of evolving
knowledge to manage risks and opportunities related to climate variability
                                                                  and change.
                       Uses and limitations of observations, data, forecasts, 
19 Within 2 years   and other projections in decision support for selected 
                                                         sectors and regions. 
                     Best practice approaches for characterizing,             
20 Within 2 years communicating, and incorporating scientific uncertainty  
                     in decision-making.                                      
                           Decision support experiments and evaluations using 
21 Within 2 years     seasonal to inter-annual forecasts and observational 
                                                                        data. 

                    Source: Climate Change Science Program.

Enclosure II Comments from the Department of Commerce

                                 See comment 1.

                                 See comment 2.

                         See comment 3. See comment 4.

GAO's Comments

The following are GAO's comments on the Department of Commerce letter
dated April 4, 2005.

1. We revised the text to include the word "Change," as suggested.

2. We deleted the number 30, as suggested.

3. 	We revised the text, as suggested, replacing the word "third" with the
word "other."

4. 	Although the Director, CCSP, stated that he agrees with our
recommendation, he did not provide specific information on whether and
when a specific plan will be developed to address all eight assessment
areas. We continue to believe that such a plan should be developed.

(360528)

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