Federal Aviation Administration: Plan Still Needed to Meet	 
Challenges to Effectively Managing Air Traffic Controller	 
Workforce (15-JUN-04, GAO-04-887T).				 
                                                                 
In the summer of 2000, the air traffic control system lacked the 
capacity to handle demand efficiently, and flight delays produced
near-gridlock conditions at several U.S. airports. A combination 
of factors, including the crises instigated by the events of	 
9/11, temporarily reduced air traffic, but air traffic is now	 
back to near pre-9/11 levels. The ability of the air traffic	 
control system to handle expected traffic in coming years may	 
depend in part on the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA)	 
effectiveness in planning for a long-expected wave of air traffic
controller retirements. GAO's testimony focuses on (1) the	 
magnitude and timing of the pending wave of air traffic 	 
controller retirements, (2) the challenges FAA faces in ensuring 
that well-qualified air traffic controllers are ready to step	 
into the gap created by the expected large number of retirements,
and (3) challenges that will affect the ability of the air	 
traffic controller workforce to meet future changes in the	 
airline industry and use of airspace. GAO's statement is based on
past reports on the air traffic controller workforce, including  
GAO's 2002 report that surveyed controllers and analyzed	 
controller workforce data. GAO has updated this work through	 
interviews with and the collection of data from key stakeholders 
in the aviation community. This work was performed in accordance 
with generally accepted government auditing standards.		 
-------------------------Indexing Terms------------------------- 
REPORTNUM:   GAO-04-887T					        
    ACCNO:   A10542						        
  TITLE:     Federal Aviation Administration: Plan Still Needed to    
Meet Challenges to Effectively Managing Air Traffic Controller	 
Workforce							 
     DATE:   06/15/2004 
  SUBJECT:   Air traffic control systems			 
	     Air traffic controllers				 
	     Working conditions 				 
	     Labor force					 
	     Personnel management				 
	     Federal employees					 
	     Personnel recruiting				 
	     Education or training				 
	     Hiring policies					 
	     Attrition rates					 
	     Systems conversions				 
	     Productivity in government 			 
	     Planning						 
	     Retired personnel					 
	     Personnel qualifications				 

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GAO-04-887T

United States General Accounting Office

GAO Testimony

Before the Subcommittee on Aviation, House Committee on Transportation and
Infrastructure

For Release on Delivery

Expected at 10:30 a.m. EDT FEDERAL AVIATION

Tuesday, June 15, 2004

ADMINISTRATION

    Plan Still Needed to Meet Challenges to Effectively Managing Air Traffic
                              Controller Workforce

Statement of JayEtta Z. Hecker, Director Physical Infrastructure Team

GAO-04-887T

Highlights of GAO-04-887T, a testimony before the Subcommittee on
Aviation, House Committee on Transportation and Infrastructure

In the summer of 2000, the air traffic control system lacked the capacity
to handle demand efficiently, and flight delays produced near-gridlock
conditions at several U.S. airports. A combination of factors, including
the crises instigated by the events of 9/11, temporarily reduced air
traffic, but air traffic is now back to near pre-9/11 levels. The ability
of the air traffic control system to handle expected traffic in coming
years may depend in part on the Federal Aviation Administration's (FAA)
effectiveness in planning for a long-expected wave of air traffic
controller retirements.

GAO's testimony focuses on (1) the magnitude and timing of the pending
wave of air traffic controller retirements, (2) the challenges FAA faces
in ensuring that well-qualified air traffic controllers are ready to step
into the gap created by the expected large number of retirements, and (3)
challenges that will affect the ability of the air traffic controller
workforce to meet future changes in the airline industry and use of
airspace. GAO's statement is based on past reports on the air traffic
controller workforce, including GAO's 2002 report that surveyed
controllers and analyzed controller workforce data. GAO has updated this
work through interviews with and the collection of data from key
stakeholders in the aviation community. This work was performed in
accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.

www.gao.gov/cgi-bin/getrpt?GAO 04-887T.

To view the full testimony, click on the link above. For more information,
contact JayEtta Hecker, (202) 512-2834 or [email protected].

June 15, 2004

FEDERAL AVIATION ADMINISTRATION

Plan Still Needed to Meet Challenges to Effectively Managing Air Traffic
Controller Workforce

FAA faces a bow wave of thousands of air traffic controller retirements
over the coming decade. GAO's 2002 report warned that almost half of the
controller workforce (about 7,000 controllers) would retire over the next
10 years and about 93 percent of controller supervisors would be eligible
to retire by the end of 2011. In addition, GAO's analysis showed that
retirements could increase dramatically at the busiest air traffic control
facilities. FAA and the Department of Transportation's Inspector General
have also reported that a surge in controller retirements is on the way.

Past and Projected Air Traffic Controller Retirement Eligibility, by
Fiscal Year (2002 Report)

FAA faces numerous hiring and training challenges to ensuring that
wellqualified controllers are ready to fill the gap created by the
expected retirements. For example, it can take 2-4 years or more to
certify new controllers, and FAA's training facility and air traffic
control facilities, where years of on-the-job training occur, have limited
capacity. While FAA must make hiring decisions from a long-term
perspective, it has generally hired replacements only after a current
controller leaves. In 2002, GAO recommended that FAA develop a
comprehensive workforce plan to deal with these challenges. However, FAA
has not finalized a plan, and its recent actions call into question
whether it has adequate strategies to address these challenges. For
example, since the beginning of this year, FAA lost nearly 400 controllers
and has hired only 1 new controller. Its fiscal year 2005 budget proposal
does not request any funding to hire additional controllers.

Challenges will also affect the ability of the air traffic controller
workforce to meet future changes in the airline industry and use of
airspace. Challenges include the need for FAA to overcome management
problems with acquiring systems to modernize the air traffic control
system and to adjust to shifts in the use of airspace, including increases
in the use of smaller aircraft and changes in air traffic patterns around
the country.

Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee:

We appreciate the opportunity to participate in today's hearing on the
challenges the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) faces in effectively
managing its air traffic controller workforce: in particular, challenges
in planning effectively to address the large number of controller
retirements expected over the next decade in order to help avoid any
related disruptions to air travel. We all recall that in the summer of
2000, the air traffic control system lacked the capacity to handle demand
efficiently, and flight delays produced near-gridlock conditions at
several U.S. airports. A combination of factors-the downturn in travel
caused by the general economic slowdown and of course the crises
instigated by the events of 9/11-temporarily reduced traffic significantly
and reduced pressure on the air traffic control system-but air traffic is
now back to near pre 9/11 levels.

The ability of the air traffic control system to handle expected traffic
in coming years, including the status of FAA's preparations for handling
the long-expected wave of air traffic controller retirements, has again
become a pressing issue. Air traffic controllers play an integral role in
maintaining the safety and efficiency of the nation's air traffic control
system, and ensuring an appropriately sized and trained workforce is of
high importance. We applaud the subcommittee's focus on this critical
issue and seek to contribute to the discussion by focusing on the
following three topics: (1) the magnitude and timing of the pending wave
of air traffic controller retirements, (2) challenges FAA faces in
ensuring that wellqualified air traffic controllers are ready to step into
the gap created by the expected large number of retirements, and (3)
challenges that will affect the ability of the air traffic controller
workforce to meet future changes in the airline industry and use of
airspace.

Our statement is based on our past reports in three areas: the air traffic
controller workforce, including our 2002 report in which we surveyed
controllers and analyzed controller workforce data;1 air traffic control
modernization; and airline competition. We have updated this work through
interviews with and collection of data from key stakeholders in the
aviation community, including several current and former senior FAA

1Air Traffic Control: FAA Needs to Better Prepare for Impending Wave of
Controller Attrition (GAO-02-591, June 14, 2002).

officials. We performed our work in accordance with generally accepted
government auditing standards.

In summary, Mr. Chairman, we found that:

o  	FAA faces a bow wave of thousands of air traffic controller
retirements over the coming decade. Our 2002 report warned that almost
half of the controller workforce (about 7,000 controllers) would retire
over the next 10 years and that FAA estimated it would experience
retirements of controllers at a level 3 times higher than that experienced
over the 5-year period from 1996-2000. On top of the substantial
retirements, at the time, FAA also projected that an additional 2,000
controllers would be needed by 2010 to address forecasted increases in
demand for air travel. We also found that about 93 percent of the 1,862
controller supervisors would be eligible to retire by the end of 2011,
which could exacerbate the problem of maintaining adequate controller
staffing. In addition, our analysis showed that the busiest terminal
facilities and the "en route" centers, used to manage aircraft beyond a
50-nautical-mile radius from airports, would experience a sizable increase
in controllers reaching retirement eligibility. FAA and the Department of
Transportation Inspector General have also reported that a surge in
controller retirements is on the way; the question is - Will FAA be ready
for it?

o  	FAA faces numerous challenges related to ensuring that well-qualified
controllers are ready to step into the gap created by the expected wave of
retirements but it has not implemented strategies to meet them. Key among
these challenges is efficiently hiring and training new controllers in
numbers large enough to meet anticipated shortfalls. For example, since it
takes 2-4 years and sometimes longer for a newly hired controller to
become certified, hiring and training decisions need to be made from a
longer-term perspective. However, we found in prior work that FAA's
process of generally hiring replacements only after a current controller
leaves does not adequately take into consideration this training time.
Hiring challenges include effectively screening candidates to help ensure
that they have the aptitude needed to control air traffic. Efficiency in
hiring will become even more important as FAA faces the large surge in
controller retirements, for hiring people who do not make it through the
training process wastes money and time-and may affect both the cost of the
controller workforce and the ability of FAA to fill positions quickly
enough to maintain a sufficient controller workforce to meet its mission.
Training challenges include the limited capacity at the training center in
Oklahoma City and at the air traffic control facilities. In addition,
because of the significant amount of on-the-job training that currently
occurs through one-on-one training, to effectively handle a large number
of new

controllers, there needs to be an overlap period during which experienced
controllers likely to retire soon and newly hired controllers are both on
board. While this will result in a temporary increase in the cost of the
air traffic controller workforce, eventually more senior, high salary
controllers will retire and be replaced by new controllers at lower
salaries, possibly reducing expenses; and the need for overlap between
these two groups can be reduced. Our 2002 report recommended that FAA
develop a comprehensive workforce plan to deal with these challenges, but
FAA has not finalized a plan and its recent actions call into question
whether it will have adequate strategies to address these challenges. For
example, last year, FAA hired 762 controllers, but according to a senior
National Air Traffic Controllers Association official, many of these hires
took place at the end of the year, and because of limited space in
training facilities, many of those hired were unable to begin entry level
training immediately. Moreover, since hiring those controllers at the end
of the year to reach a level of 15,635, FAA has lost nearly 400
controllers and has hired only 1 new controller through May of this year.
Its fiscal year 2005 budget proposal does not request any funding to hire
additional controllers to address the wave of retirements.

o  	Challenges will also affect the ability of the air traffic controller
workforce to meet future changes in the airline industry and use of
airspace, and these challenges underscore the importance of comprehensive
workforce planning that considers and addresses the entire context in
which air traffic controllers operate. Among these challenges is the need
for FAA to overcome significant and longstanding management problems it
has had with acquiring new air traffic control modernization systems
within cost, schedule, and performance goals, including the need to
effectively involve controllers in the development, deployment, and
refinement of these new systems and consider how these new systems will
affect the workforce. Another challenge will be adjusting to shifts in the
types of aircraft used in commercial aviation (e.g., more flights by
smaller aircraft, such as regional jets or air taxis), general aviation,
and fractional ownership, where individuals or companies purchase a share
in an aircraft for their occasional use. These shifts could have
implications for the Aviation Trust Fund. Another challenge likely to
impact the controller workforce will be keeping pace with the dynamic
nature of the airline industry, in which major and low cost airlines are
likely to change flight patterns, in part by adding or removing hubs. For
example, industry sources have recently reported that US Airways plans to
reduce service to Pittsburgh. Such changes may alter the flow of air
traffic in particular areas, emphasizing the need for an air traffic
control system that is nimble and can seamlessly continue to provide
services as demand shifts.

  FAA Faces a Pending Wave of Air Traffic Controller Retirements

Although the exact number and timing of the controllers' departures are
impossible to determine, scenarios we developed indicate that the total
attrition of controllers from FAA will grow substantially in the short and
long terms. As a result, FAA will likely need to hire thousands of air
traffic controllers in the next decade. At the end of fiscal year 2003,
FAA had 15,635 controllers, and according to its staffing standard, it is
targeting a controller staffing level of 15,136 in fiscal year 2004,
15,300 in fiscal year 2005, and 16,109 in fiscal year 2009. However, so
far this year, the agency has lost nearly 400 controllers due to
retirements and as of May had hired only 1 controller. FAA has reported
similar projections of a wave of air traffic controller retirements, and
in a 2004 report, the Inspector General also reported on the coming wave,
citing FAA's estimate that nearly 7,100 controllers could leave the agency
by 2012.2 Our 2002 report found that FAA estimated it would experience
retirements of controllers at a level three times higher than that
experienced over the 5-year period from 19962000. On top of the
substantial number of retirements, at the time, FAA also projected that an
additional 2,000 controllers would be needed by 2010 to address forecasted
increases in demand for air travel.

Our 2002 report analyzed, among other things, the retirement eligibility
levels for various portions of the controller workforce and found that the
annual number of controllers first becoming eligible for retirement would
peak in fiscal year 2007, when about 10 percent of the air traffic
controllers will become eligible to retire. (See fig. 1.) In addition, we
found that by 2011, about 68 percent of the current controllers would be
eligible to retire.

2Opportunities to Improve FAA's Process for Placing and Training Air
Traffic Controllers In Light of Pending Retirements, (Department of
Transportation Inspector General, Report Number: AV-2004-060, June 2,
2004).

Figure 1: Past and Projected Air Traffic Controller Retirement
Eligibility, by Fiscal Year

Note: This figure appeared in Air Traffic Control: FAA Needs to Better
Prepare for Impending Wave of Controller Attrition (GAO-02-591, June 14,
2002).

We found a similar situation with the retirement eligibility of
supervisors. Because supervisors are important to air traffic control
operations and because they tend to be older than others controlling
traffic, we examined retirement eligibility and survey results of
supervisors at FAA as of June 2001. We found that supervisors will also
become eligible to leave FAA in very high numbers over the next decade.
Specifically, we found that 1,205, or 65 percent of current supervisors,
would become eligible to retire between 2002 and 2011. (See fig. 2.)
However, with 28 percent of current supervisors already eligible to retire
and another 65 percent reaching eligibility by 2011, a total of about 93
percent of 1,862 current supervisors will be eligible to retire by the end
of fiscal year 2011. As a result, FAA may face substantial turnover in its
supervisory ranks over the next decade. This turnover could put a further
strain on FAA's ability to maintain a sufficient certified controller
workforce, as experienced controllers will be tapped to fill open
supervisory positions, leaving fewer to control air traffic or provide
training for new controllers.

Figure 2: Past and Projected Retirement Eligibility for Supervisory Air
Traffic Controllers

Note: This figure appeared in Air Traffic Control: FAA Needs to Better
Prepare for Impending Wave of Controller Attrition (GAO-02-591, June 14,
2002).

Because of the crucial role certain facilities play in the national air
space system, we analyzed the impact of retirement eligibility on the 21
major "en route" centers (air route traffic control centers used to manage
aircraft beyond a 50-nautical-mile radius from airports), the 10 busiest
airport towers, and the 10 busiest TRACON facilities (terminal radar
approach control facilities used to track airplanes and manage the arrival
and departure of aircraft within a 5-to-50 nautical mile radius of
airports). Based on our analysis of FAA's employee database, we found the
en route centers and the busiest terminal facilities will experience a
sizeable increase in the number of controllers reaching retirement
eligibility. As figure 3 shows, retirement eligibility in these facilities
grows over the next decade.

Figure 3: Past and Projected Retirement Eligibility for En Route Centers,
10 Busiest Towers and 10 Busiest TRACONs, by Fiscal Year

Note: This figure appeared in Air Traffic Control: FAA Needs to Better
Prepare for Impending Wave of Controller Attrition (GAO-02-591, June 14,
2002).

Based on our analysis for the towers, we found that the Denver tower had
the highest proportion of retirement-eligible controllers as of September
30, 2001, with 14 of its 51 controllers (27 percent) eligible to retire.
We found that by the end of fiscal year 2006, 45 percent of Denver's
current controllers would be eligible to retire, and by the end of fiscal
year 2011, 46 of its 51 controllers (90 percent), will reach retirement
eligibility.

Our analysis of the 10 busiest TRACON facilities showed that the
Dallas/Fort Worth TRACON had the highest level of current controllers
eligible to retire at the end of fiscal year 2001, with 36 of its 147
controllers (24 percent) eligible. We found that by the end of fiscal year
2006, the cumulative percentage would grow to 46 percent, and by the end
of fiscal year 2011 would reach 87 percent, as 128 of the 147 controllers
currently at the facility would reach retirement eligibility.

  FAA Faces Challenges to Hiring and Training an Adequate Number of Well-
  Qualified Controllers but Lacks Strategies to Meet These Challenges

In examining the 21 major en route centers, we found that the Jacksonville
center had the highest proportion of retirement-eligible controllers at
the end of fiscal year 2001, with 79 of its 376 controllers (21 percent)
eligible for retirement. According to our analysis, by the end of fiscal
year 2006, at least 29 percent of current controllers would be eligible
for retirement at 10 centers-Albuquerque, Atlanta, Boston, Fort Worth,
Houston, Jacksonville, Los Angeles, Memphis, Seattle, and Washington, D.C.

We are not alone in seeing a bow wave of controller retirements
approaching over the next several years. This month, FAA provided us with
projections that 329 controllers would retire in fiscal year 2004, and
that this level would double by fiscal year 2007 to over 650 in that year,
and double again to 1170 by fiscal year 2013. These levels are
significantly higher than the average of less than 200 retirements per
year over the past 5 years (1999-2003). Similarly, the Department of
Transportation Inspector General reported this month that increasing
numbers of controllers will become eligible to retire through 2012, with a
peak of retirement eligibility around fiscal year 2007, and that FAA had
estimated that nearly 7,100 controllers could leave FAA by fiscal year
2012.

There are several challenges related to hiring and training large numbers
of air traffic controllers in the short amount of time available. Although
we identified these challenges in 2002 and recommended that FAA create a
comprehensive workforce plan that addresses these challenges, FAA has not
yet created a plan. Moreover, its recent actions suggest that it has not
implemented strategies to meet these challenges and put into place a
system that will bring on board air traffic controllers in time to deal
with the projected retirements of many controllers. However, senior FAA
officials told us that the agency's new Air Traffic Organization is
currently preparing a comprehensive business plan, including a
comprehensive controller workforce plan, which is due to the Congress in
December 2004.

A key component of workforce planning is ensuring that appropriately
skilled employees are available when and where they are needed to meet an
agency's mission. This means that an agency continually needs trained
employees to become available in time to fill newly opened positions. We
reported in 2002 that FAA's hiring practice was generally to hire new
employees only when current employees leave, which does not adequately
account for the time needed to train controllers to fully perform their
functions. The amount of time it takes new controllers to gain
certification depends on the facility at which they work, but generally,
training takes from 2 to 4 years and can take up to 5 years at some of the
busiest and

most complex facilities. Moreover, during the training period, the current
training process depends upon substantial one-on-one training, during
which an experienced controller works directly with a controller in
training, monitoring the trainee's actions, so there must be an overlap of
experienced controllers and newly hired controllers. FAA regional
officials, who are responsible for ensuring that FAA's air traffic
facilities are adequately staffed, were particularly concerned about FAA's
general hiring practice. Specifically, the officials were concerned that
significant increases in retirements would leave facilities short of
qualified controllers while new trainees were hired and trained.

Our report also noted that the lack of experienced controllers could have
many adverse consequences. For example, several FAA regional officials
stated that if a facility becomes seriously short of experienced
controllers, the remaining controllers might have to slow down the flow of
air traffic though their airspace. If the situation became dire, FAA could
require airlines to reduce their schedules, but this would be an unlikely,
worstcase scenario, according to some FAA regional officials. Also,
because there would be fewer experienced controllers available to work,
some FAA facility officials stated that those controllers could see
increased workloads and additional, potentially mandatory, overtime. In
addition to potentially resulting in increased work-related stress and
sick leave usage, it could also cause experienced controllers to retire
sooner than they otherwise might. For example, based on our 2002 survey of
controllers, we estimated that 33 percent of controllers would accelerate
their decision to retire if forced to work additional mandatory overtime.

Identifying sources of future potential employees with the requisite
skills and aptitude is also important. Efficiency in hiring will become
even more important as FAA faces the wave of controller retirements, for
hiring people who do not make it through the training process wastes money
and time-and may affect both the cost of the controller workforce and the
ability of FAA to fill positions quickly enough to maintain a sufficient
controller workforce to meet its mission. FAA has historically hired new
controllers from a variety of sources, including graduates from
institutions in FAA's collegiate training institute program, the
Minneapolis Community and Technical College, former FAA controllers who
were fired by President Reagan in 1981, and former Department of Defense
controllers. FAA can also hire off-the-street candidates to become
controllers. The success of hiring candidates who actually become
controllers depends in large part on identifying potential candidates who
have the appropriate aptitude for controllers' work. Historically, FAA
used its initial entry-level training at its academy to screen out
candidates who could not become

successful controllers. According to FAA officials, as many as 50 percent
of off-the-street applicants have dropped out before finishing the
required training program, at a cost of $10 million per year, a rate that
highlights the difficulty of successfully hiring candidates to replace the
thousands of new controllers expected to retire. FAA has recently begun to
test a new screening exam that it hopes will better ensure that potential
new hires have the skills and abilities necessary to become successful
controllers. It will take a number of years to determine if the new test
has the desired results.

Training challenges include the limited capacity at the training center in
Oklahoma City and at the air traffic control facilities. In addition,
because of the significant amount of on-the-job training that currently
occurs through one-on-one training, to effectively handle a large number
of new controllers, there needs to be an overlap period during which both
experienced controllers likely to retire soon and newly hired controllers
are both on board. While this will result in a temporary increase in the
cost of the air traffic controller workforce, eventually more senior, high
salary controllers will retire and be replaced by new controllers at lower
salaries, possibly reducing expenses; and the need for overlap between
these two groups can be reduced.

Our 2002 report recommended that FAA develop a comprehensive workforce
plan for controllers to deal with these challenges, but FAA has not
finalized a plan and its recent actions call into question whether it will
have adequate strategies to address these challenges. For example, last
year, FAA hired 762 controllers, but according to a senior National Air
Traffic Controllers Association official, many of these hires took place
at the end of the year, and because of limited space in training
facilities, many of those hired were unable to begin entry level training
immediately. Moreover, since hiring those controllers at the end of the
year to reach a level of 15,635, FAA has lost nearly 400 controllers and
has hired only 1 new controller through May of this year. Its fiscal year
2005 budget proposal does not request any funding to hire additional
controllers to address the wave of retirements.

  Challenges Will Also Affect the Ability of the Controller Workforce to Meet
  Future Changes in the Airline Industry and Use of Airspace

There are also challenges in the broader context of the air traffic
control system that will affect the ability of the air traffic controller
workforce to meet future changes in the airline industry and use of
airspace. These challenges need to be considered as FAA develops and
implements a comprehensive plan for its controller workforce. Challenges
include the need for FAA to (1) overcome significant and longstanding
management problems it has had with acquiring new systems to modernize the
air traffic control system intended to facilitate the safe and efficient
movement of air traffic by controllers and (2) adjust to shifts in the use
of airspace, including increases in the use of smaller aircraft and
changes in air traffic patterns around the country.

Controller Workforce Planning Inextricably Linked to FAA's Air Traffic
Control Modernization Efforts

Controller workforce planning needs to take place in the larger context of
FAA's Air Traffic Control modernization efforts in order to make optimal
use of the agency's investments. However, as our past work has shown, FAA
needs to address longstanding problems it has had in deploying new air
traffic control systems on schedule, within budget, and with promised
capabilities to facilitate the safe and efficient flow of air traffic by
controllers. These new systems are intended to improve the safety and
efficiency of the nation's air traffic control system, with some offering
the potential to improve the productivity of the controller workforce. To
maximize the usefulness of new systems to controllers and to help ensure
that safety is not eroded by the introduction of new capabilities,
sustained controller involvement is needed as new systems are developed,
deployed, and refined. When there is an ineffective link between
technology and needs, money and time will be wasted, and the effectiveness
of the air traffic controller workforce may be reduced. Moreover, these
new systems may change the productivity of the controller workforce, an
effect that will need to be taken into account as FAA refines its
estimates of future controller workforce needs.

For example, our past work on the Standard Terminal Automation Replacement
System (STARS)-the workstations used by controllers near airports to
sequence and control air traffic-highlights the importance of controller
involvement in the development, deployment, and refinement of air traffic
control systems. In 1997, when FAA controllers first tested an early
version of this commercially available system, they raised some concerns
about the way aircraft position and other data were displayed and updated
on the controllers' radar screens. For example, the controllers said the
system's lack of detail about an aircraft's position and movement could
hamper their ability to monitor traffic movement. In addition, controllers
noted that many features of the old equipment could

be operated with knobs, allowing controllers to focus on the screen. By
contrast, STARS was menu-driven and required the controllers to make
several keystrokes and use a trackball, diverting their attention from the
screen. To address these concerns, among others, FAA decided to develop a
more customized system and to deploy an incremental approach, thereby
enabling controllers to adjust to some changes before introducing others.
This incremental approach costs more and is taking longer to implement
than the original STARS project. Despite the importance of controller
involvement in the development, deployment, and refinement of new air
traffic control systems, such activities can be very timeconsuming, often
take controllers off-line, and place additional pressure on an already
constrained workforce. FAA needs to take into account these demands on the
controller workforce as part of its comprehensive workforce plan.

Increases in Use of Smaller Aircraft and Changes in Air Traffic Patterns
Around Country May Also Affect the Air Traffic Controller Workforce

Changes in patterns of aircraft usage are likely to affect the needs of
the air traffic controller workforce. The increased use of regional jets,
the possibly expanding use of air taxis, ongoing general aviation aircraft
usage, and fractional ownership, where individuals or companies purchase a
share in an aircraft for their occasional use, could all increase the
number of smaller aircraft in the sky, placing increased demands on the
air traffic controller workforce. In addition, possible changes in air
traffic patterns around the country may also impact this workforce.

In 2001, we reported that we had found consensus among the studies we
reviewed and the industry experts we interviewed that the growing number
of regional jets had contributed to congestion in our national airspace.3
The industry experts we spoke with repeatedly expressed concern about the
impact of adding so many aircraft so quickly to airspace whose capacity is
already constrained. Because hundreds of new aircraft had been added to
already congested airspace while comparatively few turboprops had been
taken out of service, many of the experts believed it was inevitable that
congestion and delays would increase. They also noted that with many more
regional jets on order, congestion and delays were not likely to diminish
in the near future. Earlier this month, the Chairman and Chief Executive
Officer of AirTran Airways noted that the air traffic

3Aviation Competition: Regional Jet Service Yet to Reach Many Small
Communities (GAO-01-344, February 14, 2001).

control system may have difficulty absorbing the hundreds of regional jets
now on order.4

In coming years, air taxis may also add to crowding in the skies. FAA
officials told us that they have been briefed on proposals for using air
taxis to carry about four passengers each in selected metropolitan areas
where there is heavy surface traffic congestion. The use of such air taxis
could increase the demand on controllers to provide air traffic services
in these metropolitan areas, where it is likely that there is already
heavy air traffic. Furthermore, it is possible that any increases in
general aviation or fractional ownership could also increase the amount of
traffic in the skies-traffic that must be effectively directed by air
traffic controllers to ensure the safety of the airways. Moreover, because
fees collected for the Aviation Trust Fund are based largely on ticket
taxes assessed on paying airline passengers, the change in the mix of
aircraft could have implications for the Aviation Trust Fund.

Given the dynamic nature of the airline industry, in which major airlines
and low cost airlines may change their flight patterns by adding or
removing hubs, the number of flights in any one location may spike or drop
abruptly. Recent examples include Independence Air's move to set up
operations at Washington Dulles International Airport and reports by
industry sources of a US Airways plan to reduce service to Pittsburgh.
These types of potential shifts in the location of demand for air traffic
services underscore the need for a nimble air traffic control system that
can seamlessly continue to provide services as demand shifts.

Concluding Observations

FAA faces a complex task in effectively addressing the bow wave of
controller retirements that is heading its way. The number of factors
involved, including the need to time hiring so as not to overload training
capacities and the need to be responsive to the changing demands of a
dynamic industry, highlight the importance of a carefully considered,
comprehensive workforce plan. This plan needs to include strategies for
addressing the full range of challenges in order to seamlessly transition
from the current workforce to a future workforce that is well qualified,
trained, and can accommodate changes in the use of our airspace.

4Testimony of Joseph Leonard, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer of
AirTran Airways before the Subcommittee on Aviation, House Committee on
Transportation and Infrastructure, June 3, 2004.

However, although we recommended to FAA 2 years ago that it develop a
comprehensive plan for this purpose, it has not yet finalized a plan.
Senior FAA officials told us that the Air Traffic Organization is
currently preparing a comprehensive business plan, including a
comprehensive controller workforce plan, which is due to the Congress in
December 2004. This is an important opportunity to establish strategies to
meet the challenges ahead. Today these challenges continue to underscore
the need for action in developing strategies that take into account (1)
the expected timing and location of anticipated retirements, (2) the
length of the hiring and training processes, (3) limitations on training
capacities, and (4) changes in the airline industry and use of airspace
that may affect the air traffic controller workforce in coming years.
Without focused and timely action on all of these fronts, the gap created
by the expected bow wave of controller retirements could reduce the
effectiveness of the air traffic control workforce to meet its mission
just as increased activity in the skies makes its effectiveness more
critical than ever to the safety of our airways.

This concludes my statement. I would be pleased to respond to any
questions that you or other Members of the Subcommittee may have at this
time.

  Contacts and Acknowledgments

(542037)

For further information on this testimony, please contact JayEtta Z.
Hecker at (202) 512-2834 or by e-mail at [email protected]. Individuals
making key contributions to this testimony include, David Lichtenfeld,
Beverly Norwood, Raymond Sendejas, Glen Trochelman, and Alwynne Wilbur.

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