Polar-Orbiting Environmental Satellites: Project Risks Could	 
Affect Weather Data Needed by Civilian and Military Users	 
(15-JUL-03, GAO-03-987T).					 
                                                                 
Polar-orbiting environmental satellites provide data and imagery 
that are used by weather forecasters, climatologists, and the	 
military to map and monitor changes in weather, climate, the	 
ocean, and the environment. The current polar satellite program  
is a complex infrastructure that includes two satellite systems, 
supporting ground stations, and four central data processing	 
centers. In the future, the National Polar-orbiting Operational  
Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) is to merge the two	 
current satellite systems into a single state-of-the-art	 
environment monitoring satellite system. This new $7 billion	 
satellite system is considered critical to the United States'	 
ability to maintain the continuity of data required for weather  
forecasting and global climate monitoring through the year 2018. 
In its testimony GAO was asked, among other topics, to discuss	 
risks to the success of the NPOESS deployment.			 
-------------------------Indexing Terms------------------------- 
REPORTNUM:   GAO-03-987T					        
    ACCNO:   A07554						        
  TITLE:     Polar-Orbiting Environmental Satellites: Project Risks   
Could Affect Weather Data Needed by Civilian and Military Users  
     DATE:   07/15/2003 
  SUBJECT:   Climate statistics 				 
	     Satellites 					 
	     Weather forecasting				 
	     Schedule slippages 				 
	     Financial management				 
	     National Polar-Orbiting Operational		 
	     Environmental Satellite System			 
                                                                 

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GAO-03-987T

Testimony Before the Subcommittee on Environment, Technology, and
Standards, Committee on Science, House of Representatives

United States General Accounting Office

GAO For Release on Delivery Expected at 2 p. m. EDT Tuesday, July 15, 2003
POLAR- ORBITING

ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES

Project Risks Could Affect Weather Data Needed by Civilian and Military
Users

Statement of David A. Powner, Acting Director, Information Technology
Management Issues

GAO- 03- 987T

The NPOESS program faces key programmatic and technical risks that may
affect the successful and timely deployment of the system. The original
plan for NPOESS was that it would be available to serve as a backup to the
March 2008 launch of the final satellite in one of the two current
satellite programs* the Polar- orbiting Operational Environmental
Satellite (POES) system. However, changing funding streams and revised
schedules have delayed the expected launch date of the first NPOESS
satellite by 21 months. Thus, the first NPOESS satellite will not be ready
in time to back up the final POES satellite, resulting in a potential gap
in satellite coverage should that satellite fail. Specifically, if the
final POES launch fails and if existing satellites are unable to continue
operations beyond their expected lifespans, the continuity of weather data
needed for weather forecasts and climate monitoring will be put at risk.
Moreover, concerns with the development of key NPOESS components,
including critical sensors and the data processing system, may cause
additional delays in the satellite launch date.

The program office is working to address the changes in funding levels and
schedule, and to make plans for addressing specific risks. Further, it is
working to develop a new cost and schedule baseline for the NPOESS program
by August 2003. Timeline of Delay in Launch Availability

Polar- orbiting environmental satellites provide data and imagery that are
used by weather forecasters, climatologists, and the military to map and
monitor

changes in weather, climate, the ocean, and the environment. The current
polar satellite program is a

complex infrastructure that includes two satellite systems, supporting
ground stations, and four central data processing centers. In the future,
the National Polar- orbiting Operational

Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) is to merge the two current
satellite systems into a single state- of- the- art environment monitoring
satellite system. This new $7 billion satellite system is considered
critical to the United States* ability to maintain the continuity of data
required for

weather forecasting and global climate monitoring through the year 2018.
In its testimony GAO was asked, among other topics, to discuss risks to
the success of the

NPOESS deployment. www. gao. gov/ cgi- bin/ getrpt? GAO- 03- 987T. To view
the full product, including the scope and methodology, click on the link
above. For more information, contact David Powner at (202) 512- 9286 or
pownerd@ gao. gov. Highlights of GAO- 03- 987T, a testimony

before the Subcommittee on Environment, Technology, and Standards,
Committee on Science, House of Representatives

July 15, 2003

POLAR- ORBITING ENVIRONMENTAL SATELLITES

Project Risks Could Affect Weather Data Needed by Civilian and Military
Users

Page 1 GAO- 03- 987T

Mr. Chairman and Members of the Subcommittee: We appreciate the
opportunity to join in today*s hearing to discuss our work on the planned
National Polar- orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System
(NPOESS). At your request, we will provide an overview of our nation*s
current polar- orbiting environmental satellite program and the planned
NPOESS program. We will also discuss key risks to the successful and
timely deployment of NPOESS.

In brief, today*s polar- orbiting environmental satellite program is a
complex infrastructure encompassing two satellite systems, supporting
ground stations, and four central data processing centers that provide
general weather information and specialized environmental products to a
variety of users, including weather forecasters, military strategists, and
the public. NPOESS is planned to merge the two satellite systems into a
single state- of- the- art environment monitoring satellite system. This
new satellite system, currently estimated to cost about $7 billion, is
considered critical to the United States* ability to maintain the
continuity of data required for

weather forecasting and global climate monitoring through the year 2018.
However, the NPOESS program faces key programmatic and technical risks
that may affect the successful and timely deployment of the system.
Specifically, changing funding streams and revised schedules have delayed
the expected launch date of the first NPOESS satellite by 21 months. Thus,
the first NPOESS satellite will not be ready in time to back up the final
POES satellite, resulting in a potential gap in satellite coverage should
that satellite fail. Specifically, if the final POES launch fails and if
existing satellites are unable to continue operations beyond their
expected lifespans, the continuity of weather data needed for weather
forecasts and climate monitoring will be put at risk. In addition,
concerns with the

development of key NPOESS components, including critical sensors and the
data processing system, could cause additional delays in the satellite
launch date. The program office is working to address the changes in
funding levels

and schedule, and to make plans for addressing specific risks. Further, it
is working to develop a new cost and schedule baseline for the NPOESS
program by August 2003.

Page 2 GAO- 03- 987T

This statement builds on work we have done on environmental satellite
programs over the last several years. 1 An overview of the approach we
used to perform this work* our objectives, scope, and methodology* is
provided in appendix I. Since the 1960s, the United States has operated
two separate operational

polar- orbiting meteorological satellite systems. These systems are known
as the Polar- orbiting Operational Environmental Satellites (POES),
managed by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration*s (NOAA)
National Environmental Satellite, Data, and Information Service (NESDIS),
and the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP), managed by the
Department of Defense (DOD). These satellites obtain environmental data
that are processed to provide graphical weather images and specialized
weather products, and that are the predominant input to numerical weather
prediction models* all used by weather forecasters, the military, and the
public. Polar satellites also provide data used to monitor environmental
phenomena, such as ozone depletion and drought conditions, as well as data
sets that are used by researchers for a variety of studies, such as
climate monitoring.

Unlike geostationary satellites, which maintain a fixed position above the
earth, polar- orbiting satellites constantly circle the earth in an almost
north- south orbit, providing global coverage of conditions that affect
the weather and climate. Each satellite makes about 14 orbits a day. As
the earth rotates beneath it, each satellite views the entire earth*s
surface twice a day. Today, there are two operational POES satellites and
two operational DMSP satellites that are positioned so that they can
observe the earth in early morning, mid- morning, and early afternoon
polar orbits. Together, they ensure that for any region of the earth, the
data provided to users are generally no more than 6 hours old. Figure 1
illustrates the

current operational polar satellite configuration. Besides the four
operational satellites, there are five older satellites in orbit that
still collect some data and are available to provide some limited backup
to the operational satellites should they degrade or fail. In the future,
both NOAA

1 U. S. General Accounting Office, Polar- orbiting Environmental
Satellites: Status, Plans, and Future Data Management Challenges, GAO- 02-
684T (Washington, D. C.: July 24, 2002);

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration: National Weather Service
Modernization and Weather Satellite Program, GAO/ T- AIMD- 00- 86
(Washington, D. C.: Mar. 29, 2000); and Weather Satellites: Planning for
the Geostationary Satellite Program Needs More Attention, GAO- AIMD- 97-
37 (Washington, D. C.: Mar. 13, 1997). Existing Polar

Satellite Infrastructure

Page 3 GAO- 03- 987T

and DOD plan to continue to launch additional POES and DMSP satellites
every few years, with final launches scheduled for 2008 and 2010,
respectively. Figure 1: Configuration of Operational Polar Satellites

Each of the polar satellites carries a suite of sensors designed to detect
environmental data either reflected or emitted from the earth, the
atmosphere, and space. The satellites store these data and then transmit
the data to NOAA and Air Force ground stations when the satellites pass
overhead. The ground stations then relay the data via communications
satellites to the appropriate meteorological centers for processing.

Under a shared processing agreement among the four processing centers*
NESDIS, 2 the Air Force Weather Agency, Navy*s Fleet Numerical

2 Within NOAA, NESDIS processes the satellite data, and the National
Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP), a component of NOAA*s
National Weather Service, runs the models. For simplicity, we refer to the
combined NESDIS/ NCEP processing center as

the NESDIS processing center.

Page 4 GAO- 03- 987T

Meteorology and Oceanography Center, and the Naval Oceanographic Office*
different centers are responsible for producing and distributing different
environmental data sets, specialized weather and oceanographic products,
and weather prediction model outputs via a shared network. Each of the
four processing centers is also responsible for distributing the data to
its respective users. For the DOD centers, the users include regional
meteorology and oceanography centers as well as meteorology and
oceanography staff on military bases. NESDIS forwards the data to NOAA*s
National Weather Service for distribution and use by forecasters. The
processing centers also use the Internet to distribute data to the general
public. NESDIS is responsible for the long- term archiving of data and
derived products from POES and DMSP.

In addition to the infrastructure supporting satellite data processing
noted above, properly equipped field terminals that are within a direct
line of sight of the satellites can receive real- time data directly from
the polarorbiting satellites. There are an estimated 150 such field
terminals operated by the U. S. government, many by DOD. Field terminals
can be taken into areas with little or no data communications
infrastructure* such as on a battlefield or ship* and enable the receipt
of weather data directly from the polar- orbiting satellites. These
terminals have their own software and processing capability to decode and
display a subset of the

satellite data to the user. Figure 2 depicts a generic data relay pattern
from the polar- orbiting satellites to the data processing centers and
field terminals.

Page 5 GAO- 03- 987T

Figure 2: Generic Data Relay Pattern for the Polar Meteorological
Satellite System Polar satellites gather a broad range of data that are
transformed into a variety of products for many different uses. When first
received, satellite data are considered raw data. 3 To make them usable,
the processing centers format the data so that they are time- sequenced
and include earth location and calibration information. After formatting,
these data are called raw data records. The centers further process these
raw data records into data sets, called sensor data records and
temperature data records. These data records are then used to derive
weather products called environmental data records (EDR). EDRs range from
atmospheric products detailing cloud coverage, temperature, humidity, and
ozone distribution; to land surface products showing snow cover,
vegetation, and land use; to ocean products depicting sea surface
temperatures, sea ice,

3 NOAA uses different nomenclature for its data processing stages: raw
data are known as level 0 data; raw data records are known as level 1a
data; sensor data records and temperature data records are known as level
1b data; and environmental data records are known as level 2 data. Polar
Satellite Data,

Products, and Uses

Page 6 GAO- 03- 987T

and wave height; to characterizations of the space environment.
Combinations of these data records (raw, sensor, temperature, and
environmental data records) are also used to derive more sophisticated
products, including outputs from numerical weather models and assessments
of climate trends. Figure 3 is a simplified depiction of the various
stages of data processing.

Figure 3: Satellite Data Processing Steps

EDRs can be either images or quantitative data products. Image EDRs
provide graphical depictions of the weather and are used to observe
meteorological and oceanographic phenomena to track operationally
significant events (such as tropical storms, volcanic ash, 4 and
icebergs), and to provide quality assurance for weather prediction models.

The following figures demonstrate polar- orbiting satellite images. Figure
4 is an image from a DMSP satellite showing an infrared picture taken over
the west Atlantic Ocean. Figure 5 is a POES image of Hurricane Floyd,
which struck the southern Atlantic coastline in 1999. Figure 6 is a
polarsatellite image used to detect volcanic ash clouds, in particular the
ash cloud resulting from the eruption of Mount Etna in 2001. Figure 7
shows the location of icebergs near Antarctica in February 2002.

4 Volcanic ash presents a hazard to aviation because of its potential to
damage engines.

Page 7 GAO- 03- 987T Figure 4: DMSP Image of the West Atlantic Ocean

Source: Navy Fleet Numerical Meteorology and Oceanography Center.

Page 8 GAO- 03- 987T

Figure 5: POES Image of Hurricane Floyd in 1999

Source: NOAA.

Figure 6: POES Image of Volcanic Ash Cloud from Mt. Etna, Sicily, in 2001

Source: NOAA.

Page 9 GAO- 03- 987T

Figure 7: DMSP Image of Icebergs Near Antarctica

Source: Naval/ National Ice Center.

Quantitative EDRs are specialized weather products that can be used to
assess the environment and climate or to derive other products. These EDRs
can also be depicted graphically. Figures 8 and 9 are graphic depictions
of quantitative data on sea surface temperature and ozone measurements,
respectively. An example of a product that was derived from EDRs is
provided in figure 10. This product shows how long a person could survive
in the ocean* information used in military as well as search and rescue
operations* and was based on sea surface temperature EDRs from polar-
orbiting satellites.

Page 10 GAO- 03- 987T

Figure 8: Analysis of Sea Surface Temperatures from POES Satellite Data

Source: NOAA/ NESDIS.

Page 11 GAO- 03- 987T

Figure 9: Analysis of Ozone Concentration from POES Satellite Data

Source: NESDIS.

Page 12 GAO- 03- 987T

Figure 10: Analysis of Water Survivability off the Atlantic Seaboard,
January 2002

Source: Naval Oceanographic Office. Note: Contour lines with blocked
numbers depict survival time, in hours, without a survival suit..

Another use of quantitative satellite data is in numerical weather
prediction models. Based predominantly on observations from polarorbiting
satellites and supplemented by data from other sources such as
geostationary satellites, radar, weather balloons, and surface observing
systems, numerical weather prediction models are used in producing

Page 13 GAO- 03- 987T

hourly, daily, weekly, and monthly forecasts of atmospheric, land, and
ocean conditions. These models require quantitative satellite data to
update their analysis of weather and to produce new forecasts. Table 1
provides examples of models run by the processing centers. Figure 11
depicts the output of one common model.

Table 1: Common Numerical Weather Prediction Models Used by Processing
Centers Model Purpose Processing center

Global Forecast System Global weather forecasts NESDIS/ NCEP Eta Model
Regional weather forecasts NESDIS/ NCEP Mesoscale Model 5 Regional
forecasts Air Force Weather Agency Advect Cloud Model Global cloud
forecast and analysis Air Force Weather Agency Navy Operational Global
Atmospheric Prediction System Global weather forecasts Navy Fleet
Numerical Meteorology and

Oceanography Center Coupled Oceanographic and Atmospheric Mesoscale
Prediction System Regional weather forecasts Navy Fleet Numerical
Meteorology and

Oceanography Center Wave Model Regional oceanographic forecasts Naval
Oceanographic Office Source: NOAA and DOD.

Page 14 GAO- 03- 987T

Figure 11: Model Output Depicting a 6- Hour Precipitation Forecast

Source: NOAA/ NCEP. All this information* satellite data, imagery, derived
products, and model output* is used in mapping and monitoring changes in
weather, climate, the ocean, and the environment. These data and products
are provided to weather forecasters for use in issuing weather forecasts
and warnings to the public and to support our nation*s aviation,
agriculture, and maritime communities. Also, weather data and products are
used by climatologists and meteorologists to monitor the environment.
Within the military, these data and products allow military planners and
tactical users to focus on anticipating and exploiting atmospheric and
space environmental conditions. For example, Air Force Weather Agency
officials told us that accurate wind and temperature forecasts are
critical to any decision to launch an aircraft that will need mid- flight
refueling. In addition to these operational uses of satellite data, there
is also a substantial need for polar satellite data for research.
According to experts in climate research, the research community requires
long- term, consistent sets of satellite data collected sequentially,
usually at fixed intervals of time, in order to study

many critical climate processes. Examples of research topics include
longterm trends in temperature, precipitation, and snow cover.

Page 15 GAO- 03- 987T

Given the expectation that merging the POES and DMSP programs would reduce
duplication and result in sizable cost savings, a May 1994 Presidential
Decision Directive required NOAA and DOD to converge the two satellite
programs into a single satellite program capable of satisfying both
civilian and military requirements. The converged program is called the
National Polar- orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System
(NPOESS), and it is considered critical to the United States* ability to
maintain the continuity of data required for weather forecasting and
global climate monitoring. To manage this program, DOD, NOAA, and the
National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) have formed a
triagency Integrated Program Office, located within NOAA.

Within the program office, each agency has the lead on certain activities.
NOAA has overall responsibility for the converged system, as well as
satellite operations; DOD has the lead on the acquisition; and NASA has
primary responsibility for facilitating the development and incorporation
of new technologies into the converged system. NOAA and DOD share the
costs of funding NPOESS, while NASA funds specific technology projects and
studies. NPOESS is a major system acquisition estimated to cost almost $7
billion

over the 24- year period from the inception of the program in 1995 through
2018. 5 The program is to provide satellite development, satellite launch
and operation, and integrated data processing. These deliverables are
grouped into four main categories: (1) the launch segment, which includes
the launch vehicle and supporting equipment, (2) the space segment, which
includes the satellites and sensors, (3) the interface data processing
segment, which includes the data processing system to be located at the
four processing centers, and (4) the command, control, and communications
segment, which includes the equipment and services needed to track and
control satellites.

Program acquisition plans call for the procurement and launch of six
NPOESS satellites over the life of the program and the integration of 14
instruments, comprising 12 environmental sensors and 2 subsystems.
Together, the sensors are to receive and transmit data on atmospheric,
cloud cover, environmental, climate, oceanographic, and solar- geophysical

5 The fiscal year 2004 President*s budget identified the $6. 96 billion
estimate in base year dollars. The National Polarorbiting Operational

Environmental Satellite System NPOESS Overview

Page 16 GAO- 03- 987T

observations. The subsystems are to support nonenvironmental search and
rescue efforts and environmental data collection activities. According to
the Integrated Program Office, 8 of the 14 planned NPOESS instruments
involve new technology development, whereas 6 others are based on existing
technologies. The planned instruments and the state of technology on each
are listed in table 2.

Table 2: Expected NPOESS Instruments Instrument name Description State of

technology

Advanced technology microwave sounder This sensor is to measure microwave
energy released and scattered by the

atmosphere, and is to be used with infrared sounding data from NPOESS*
crosstrack infrared sounder to produce daily global atmospheric
temperature, humidity, and pressure profiles.

New Aerosol polarimetry sensor This sensor is to retrieve specific aerosol
(liquid droplets or solid particles

suspended in the atmosphere, such as sea spray, smog, and smoke) and cloud
measurements. New Conical microwave imager/ sounder This sensor is to
collect microwave images and data needed to measure rain rate,

ocean surface wind speed and direction, amount of water in the clouds, and
soil moisture, as well as temperature and humidity at different
atmospheric levels.

New Cross- track infrared sounder This sensor is to collect measurements
of the earth*s radiation to determine the

vertical distribution of temperature, moisture, and pressure in the
atmosphere. New Data collection system This system collects environmental
data from platforms around the world and

delivers them to users worldwide. Existing Earth radiation budget sensor
This sensor measures solar short- wave radiation and long- wave radiation
released

by the earth back into space on a worldwide scale to enhance long- term
climate studies.

Existing Global Positioning System occultation sensor This sensor is to
measure the refraction of radio wave signals from the Global

Positioning System and Russia*s Global Navigation Satellite System to
characterize the ionosphere.

New Ozone mapper/ profiler suite This sensor is to collect data needed to
measure the amount and distribution of

ozone in the earth*s atmosphere. New Radar altimeter This sensor measures
variances in sea surface height/ topography and ocean

surface roughness, which are used to determine sea surface height,
significant wave height, and ocean surface wind speed and to provide
critical inputs to ocean forecasting and climate prediction models.

Existing Search and rescue satellite aided tracking system This system
detects and locates aviators, mariners, and land- based users in

distress. Existing Space environmental sensor suite This suite of sensors
is to collect data to identify, reduce, and predict the effects of

space weather on technological systems, including satellites and radio
links. New Survivability sensor This sensor monitors for attacks on the
satellite and notifies other instruments in

case of an attack. Existing Total solar irradiance sensor This sensor
monitors and captures total and spectral solar irradiance data. Existing
Visible/ infrared imager radiometer suite This sensor is to collect images
and radiometric data used to provide information on the earth*s clouds,
atmosphere, ocean, and land surfaces. New Source: Integrated Program
Office.

Unlike the current polar satellite program, in which the four centers use
different approaches to process raw data into the environmental data

Page 17 GAO- 03- 987T records that they are responsible for, the NPOESS
integrated data processing system to be located at the four centers* is
expected to

provide a standard system to produce these data sets and products. The
four processing centers will continue to use these data sets to produce
other derived products, as well as for input to their numerical prediction
models.

NPOESS is planned to produce 55 EDRs, including atmospheric vertical
temperature profile, sea surface temperature, cloud base height, ocean
wave characteristics, and ozone profile. Some of these EDRs are comparable
to existing products, whereas others are new. The user community
designated six of these data products* supported by four sensors 6 *as key
EDRs, and noted that failure to provide them would cause the system to be
reevaluated or the program to be terminated.

The NPOESS acquisition program consists of three key phases: the concept
and technology development phase, which lasted from roughly 1995 to early
1997; the program definition and risk reduction phase, which began in
early 1997 and ended in August 2002; and the engineering and manufacturing
development and production phase, which began in August

2002 and is expected to continue through the life of the program. The
concept and technology development phase began with the decision to
converge the POES and DMSP satellites and included early planning for the
NPOESS acquisition. This phase included the successful convergence of the
command and control of existing DMSP and POES satellites at NOAA*s
satellite operations center.

The program definition and risk reduction phase involved both systemlevel
and sensor- level initiatives. At the system level, the program office
awarded contracts to two competing prime contractors to prepare for NPOESS
system performance responsibility. These contractors developed unique
approaches to meeting requirements, designing system architectures, and
developing initiatives to reduce sensor development

and integration risks. These contractors competed for the development and
production contract. At the sensor level, the program office awarded

6 The four sensors supporting key EDRs are (1) the advanced technology
microwave sounder, (2) the conical microwave imager/ sounder, (3) the
cross- track infrared sounder, and (4) the visible/ infrared imager
radiometer suite. Acquisition Strategy

Page 18 GAO- 03- 987T

contracts to develop five sensors. 7 This phase ended when the development
and production contract was awarded. At that point, the winning contractor
was expected to assume overall responsibility for managing continued
sensor development.

The final phase, engineering and manufacturing development and production,
began when the development and production contract was awarded to TRW in
August 2002. At that time, TRW assumed system performance responsibility
for the overall program. This responsibility

includes all aspects of design, development, integration, assembly, test
and evaluation, operations, and on- orbit support. Shortly after the
contract was awarded, Northrop Grumman Space Technology purchased TRW and
became the prime contractor on the NPOESS project.

In May 1997, the Integrated Program Office assessed the technical,
schedule, and cost risks of key elements of the NPOESS program, including
(1) overall system integration, (2) the launch segment, (3) the space
segment, (4) the interface data processing segment, and (5) the command,
control, and communications segment. As a result of this assessment, the
program office determined that three elements had high risk components:
the interface data processing segment, the space segment, and the overall
system integration. Specifically, the interface data processing segment
and overall system integration were assessed as high risk in all three
areas (technical, cost, and schedule), whereas the space segment was
assessed to be high risk in the technical and cost areas, and moderate
risk in the schedule area. The launch segment and the command,

control, and communications segment were determined to present low or
moderate risks. The program office expected to reduce its high risk
components to low and moderate risks by the time the development and
production contract was awarded, and to have all risk levels reduced to
low before the first launch. Table 3 displays the results of the 1997 risk
assessment as well as the program office*s estimated risk levels by August
2002 and by first launch. 7 The five sensors include (1) the conical
microwave imager/ sounder, (2) the cross- track

infrared sounder, (3) the Global Positioning System occultation sensor,
(4) the ozone mapper/ profiler suite, and (5) the visible/ infrared imager
radiometer suite. Risk Reduction Activities

Are Underway

Page 19 GAO- 03- 987T

Table 3: Actual Risk Levels in 1997, at Contract Award in August 2002, and
Projected Risk Level by First Launch

In order to meet its goals of reducing program risks, the program office
developed and implemented multiple risk reduction initiatives. One risk
reduction initiative specifically targeted the space segment risks by
initiating the development of key sensor technologies in advance of the
satellite system itself. Because environmental sensors have historically
taken 8 years to develop, the program office began developing six of the
eight sensors with more advanced technologies early. In the late 1990s,
the

program office awarded contracts for the development, analysis,
simulation, and prototype fabrication of five of these sensors. 8 In
addition, NASA awarded a contract for the early development of one other
sensor. 9 Responsibility for delivering these sensors was transferred from
the

8 The five program office- initiated sensors include (1) the conical
microwave imager/ sounder, (2) the cross- track infrared sounder, (3) the
Global Positioning System occultation sensor, (4) the ozone mapper/
profiler suite, and (5) the visible/ infrared imager radiometer suite.

9 NASA contracted for the advanced technology microwave sounder sensor.

Page 20 GAO- 03- 987T

program office to the prime contractor when the NPOESS contract was
awarded in August 2002. 10 Another major risk reduction initiative
expected to address risks in three

of the four segments with identified risks is called the NPOESS
Preparatory Project (NPP). 11 NPP is a planned demonstration satellite to
be launched in 2006, several years before the first NPOESS satellite
launch in 2009. It is scheduled to host three of the four critical NPOESS
sensors

(the visible/ infrared imager radiometer suite, the cross- track infrared
sounder, and the advanced technology microwave sounder), as well as two
other noncritical sensors. Further, NPP will provide the program office
and the processing centers an early opportunity to work with the sensors,
ground control, and data processing systems. Specifically, this satellite
is expected to demonstrate about half of the NPOESS EDRs and about 93
percent of its data processing load.

Since our statement last year, 12 the Integrated Program Office has made
further progress on NPOESS. Specifically, it awarded the contract for the
overall program and is monitoring and managing contract deliverables,
including products that will be tested on NPP. The program office is also
continuing to work on various other risk reduction activities, including

learning from experiences with sensors on existing platforms, including
NASA research satellites, the WINDSAT/ Coriolis weather satellite, and the
NPOESS airborne sounding testbed. While the program office has made
progress both on the acquisition and

risk reduction activities, the NPOESS program faces key programmatic and
technical risks that may affect the successful and timely deployment of
the system. Specifically, changing funding streams and revised schedules
have delayed the expected launch date of the first NPOESS satellite, and
concerns with the development of key sensors and the data processing
system may cause additional delays in the satellite launch date.

These planned and potential schedule delays could affect the continuity of
weather data. Addressing these risks may result in increased costs for the

10 In the case of the advanced technology microwave sounder sensor, NASA
is responsible for developing the initial sensor while the NPOESS prime
contractor is responsible for subsequent production of these sensors. 11
NPP will not address risks in the launch segment. 12 GAO- 02- 684T. NPOESS
Faces Key

Programmatic and Technical Risks

Page 21 GAO- 03- 987T

overall program. In attempting to address these risks, the program office
is working to develop a new cost and schedule baseline for the NPOESS
program, which it hopes to complete by August 2003.

When the NPOESS development contract was awarded, program office officials
identified an anticipated schedule and funding stream for the program. The
schedule for launching the satellites was driven by a requirement that the
satellites be available to back up the final POES and DMSP satellites
should anything go wrong during these satellites* planned launches. In
general, program officials anticipate that roughly 1 out of every 10
satellites will fail either during launch or during early operations after
launch.

Key program milestones included (1) launching NPP by May 2006 in order to
allow time to learn from that risk reduction effort, (2) having the first
NPOESS satellite available to back up the final POES satellite launch in
March 2008, and (3) having the second NPOESS satellite available to back
up the final DMSP satellite launch in October 2009. If the NPOESS

satellites were not needed to back up the final predecessor satellites,
their anticipated launch dates would have been April 2009 and June 2011,
respectively. However, a DOD program official reported that between 2001
and 2002,

the agency experienced delays in launching a DMSP satellite, causing
delays in the expected launch dates of another DMSP satellite. In late
2002, DOD shifted the expected launch date for the final DMSP satellite
from 2009 to 2010. As a result, DOD reduced funding for NPOESS by about
$65 million between fiscal years 2004 and 2007. According to NPOESS
program officials, because NOAA is required to provide no more funding
than DOD does, this change triggered a corresponding reduction in funding
by NOAA for those years. As a result of the reduced funding, program
office officials were forced to make difficult decisions about what to
focus on first. The program office decided to keep NPP as close to its
original schedule as possible because of its importance to the eventual
NPOESS development, and to shift some of the NPOESS deliverables to later
years. This shift will affect the NPOESS deployment schedule. Table 4
compares the program office*s current estimates for key milestones, given
current funding levels. NPOESS Funding and

Schedule Are Changing

Page 22 GAO- 03- 987T

Table 4: Comparison of Key Milestones Related to the NPOESS Program
Milestone

As of August 2002 contract award As of July 2003

NPP launch May 2006 October 2006 Final POES launch March 2008 March 2008
First NPOESS satellite available for launch March 2008 December 2009 First
NPOESS satellite planned for launch April 2009 November 2009 a Final DMSP
launch October 2009 May 2010

Second NPOESS satellite available for launch October 2009 April 2011
Second NPOESS satellite planned for launch June 2011 June 2011 Source:
Integrated Program Office, DOD, and GAO. a A program official reported
that if the first NPOESS satellite is not needed to back up the final POES

launch in March 2008, the contractor will prepare the satellite to be
launched in a different orbit with a different suite of sensors. These
factors will allow the launch to take place earlier than if the satellite
were to be used as a backup to the final POES launch.

As a result of the changes in funding between 2003 and 2007, project
office officials estimate that the first NPOESS satellite will be
available for launch 21 months after it is needed to back up the final
POES satellite. This means that should the final POES launch fail in March
2008, there would be no backup satellite ready for launch. Unless the
existing operational satellite is able to continue operations beyond its
expected lifespan, there could be a gap in satellite coverage. Figure 12
depicts the schedule delay.

Page 23 GAO- 03- 987T

Figure 12: Timeline of Delay in Launch Availability

We have reported on concerns about gaps in satellite coverage in the past.
In the early 1990s, the development of the second generation of NOAA*s
geostationary satellites experienced severe technical problems, cost
overruns, and schedule delays, resulting in a 5- year schedule slip in the
launch of the first satellite; this schedule slip left NOAA in danger of
temporarily losing geostationary satellite data coverage* although no gap
in coverage actually occurred. 13 In 2000, we reported that geostationary
satellite data coverage was again at risk because of a delay in a
satellite launch due to a problem with the engine of its launch vehicle.
14 At that time, existing satellites were able to maintain coverage until
the new satellite was launched over a year later* although one satellite
had exceeded its expected lifespan and was using several backup systems in
cases where primary systems had failed. DOD experienced the loss of DMSP
satellite coverage in the 1970s, which led to increased recognition

13 GAO/ AIMD- 97- 37. 14 GAO/ T- AIMD- 00- 86.

Page 24 GAO- 03- 987T

of the importance of polar- orbiting satellites and of the impact of the
loss of satellite data.

In addition to the schedule issues facing the NPOESS program, concerns
have arisen regarding key components. Although the program office reduced
some of the risks inherent in developing new technologies by initiating
the development of these sensors early, individual sensor development
efforts have experienced cost increases, schedule delays, and performance
shortfalls. The cost estimates for all four critical sensors (the ones
that are to support the most critical NPOESS EDRs) have increased, due in
part to including items that were not included in the original

estimates, and in part to addressing technical issues. 15 These increases
range from approximately $60 million to $200 million. Further, while all
the sensors are still expected to be completed within schedule, many have
slipped to the end of their schedule buffers* meaning that no additional
time is available should other problems arise. Details on the status and
changes in cost and schedule of four critical sensors are provided in
table 5. The timely development of three of these sensors (the visible/
infrared imager radiometer suite, the cross- track infrared sounder, and
the advanced technology microwave sounder) is especially critical, because
these sensors are to be demonstrated on the NPP satellite,

currently scheduled for launch in October 2006. 15 Program officials noted
that the more recent cost estimates include items that were not included
in the original estimates, such as system engineering, integration, and
testing; overhead costs; on- orbit support; and additional units of one of
the sensors, as well as costs to address technical issues. Key Sensor
Development

Efforts Are Experiencing Cost Increases, Schedule Delays, and Performance
Shortfalls

Page 25 GAO- 03- 987T

Table 5: Comparison of Costs and Schedules of Four Critical Sensors a
Comparison of schedule estimates Comparison of cost estimates

(millions of dollars) Critical design review First unit delivery Critical
sensors Original Current Change Contract

award Current date Change Contract

award Current Change

Advanced technology microwave sounder b $78.6 $137.8 $59.2 Dec 2001 May
2002 5 months Oct 2004 Dec 2004 2 months Cross- track infrared sounder
$74.1 $275.3 $201.2 Jan 2003 Aug 2003 7 months Feb 2005 Oct 2005 8 months
Visible/ infrared imager radiometer

suite $297.6 $426.75 $129.15 Mar 2002 Mar 2002 0 months Dec 2004 Nov 2005
11 months

Conical microwave imager/ sounder $298.0 $384.5 $86.5 Apr 2004 Nov 2005 19
months Apr 2006 Apr 2008 24 months Source: Integrated Program Office and
NASA data.

a Program officials noted that the recent estimates include items such as
system integration and testing that were not included in the original
estimates. b NASA is incurring all costs for the development of the
advanced technology microwave sounder

instrument, which is to fly on NPP. The program office expects to fund the
other advanced technology microwave sounder instruments at a cost of
$206.6 million.

Critical sensors are also falling short of achieving the required levels
of performance. As part of a review in early 2003, the program officials
determined that all four critical sensors were at medium to high risk of
shortfalls in performance. Program officials recently reported that since
the time of that review, the concerns that led to those risk designations
have been addressed, which contributed to the schedule delays and cost
increases noted above. We have not evaluated the closure of these risk
items. However, program officials acknowledge that there are still
performance issues on two critical sensors which they are working to
address. Specifically, officials reported that they are working to fix a
problem with radio frequency interference on the conical microwave imager/
sounder. Also, the program office is working with NASA to fix problems
with electrostatic discharge procedures and misalignment of key components
on the advanced technology microwave sounder. Further, the program office
will likely continue to identify additional performance issues as the
sensors are developed and tested. Officials anticipate that there could be
cost increases and schedule delays associated with addressing performance
issues.

Program officials reported that these and other sensor problems are not
unexpected; previous experience with such problems was what motivated

Page 26 GAO- 03- 987T

them to begin developing the sensors early. However, officials acknowledge
that continued problems could affect the sensors* delivery dates and
potentially delay the NPP launch. Any delay in that launch date could
affect the overall NPOESS program because the success of the program
depends on learning lessons in data processing and system integration from
the NPP satellite.

The interface data processing system is a ground- based system that is to
process the sensors* data so that they are usable by the data processing
centers and the broader community of environmental data users. The
development of this system is critical for both NPP and NPOESS. When used
with NPP, the data processing system is expected to produce 26 of the 55
EDRs that NPOESS will provide, processing approximately 93 percent of the
planned volume of NPOESS data. Further, the central processing centers
will be able to work with these EDRs to begin developing their own
specialized products with NPP data. These activities will allow system
users to work through any problems well in advance of when the NPOESS data
are needed. We reported last year that the volumes

of data that NPOESS will provide present immense challenges to the
centers* infrastructures and to their scientific capability to use these
additional data effectively in weather products and models. 16 We also
noted that the centers need time to incorporate these new data into their
products and models. Using the data processing system in conjunction with
NPP will allow them to begin to do so.

While the data processing segment is currently on schedule, program
officials acknowledge the potential for future schedule delays.
Specifically, an initial version of the data processing system is on track
to be delivered at the end of July, and a later version is being planned.
However, the data processing system faces potential risks that could
affect the availability of NPP and in turn NPOESS. Specifically, program
officials

reported that there is a risk that the roughly 32 months allocated for
developing the remaining software and delivering, installing, and
verifying the system at two central processing centers will not be
sufficient. A

significant portion of the data processing system software involves
converting scientific algorithms for operational use, but program
officials noted that there is still uncertainty in how much time and
effort it will take to complete this conversion. Any significant delays
could cause the

16 GAO- 02- 684T. Level of Effort and Time

Needed to Develop the Interface Data Processing System for NPP and NPOESS
Is Not Known

Page 27 GAO- 03- 987T

potential coverage gap between the launches of the final POES and first
NPOESS satellites to grow even larger.

Program officials are working to address the changes in funding levels and
schedule, and to make plans for addressing specific sensor and data
processing system risks. They acknowledge that delays in the program and
efforts to address risks on key components could increase the overall cost
of the program, which could result on the loss of some or all of the
promised cost savings from converging the two separate satellite systems.
However, estimates on these cost increases are still being determined. The

program office is working to develop a new cost and schedule baseline
based on the fiscal year 2004 President*s budget for the NPOESS program.
Officials noted that this rebaselining effort will involve a major
contract renegotiation. Program officials reported that they hope to
complete the new program baseline by August 2003.

In summary, today*s polar- orbiting weather satellite program is essential
to a variety of civilian and military operations, ranging from weather
warnings and forecasts to specialized weather products. NPOESS is expected
to merge today*s two separate satellite systems into a single state- of-
the- art weather and environmental monitoring satellite system to support
all military and civilian users, as well as the public. This new satellite
system is considered critical to the United States* ability to maintain
the continuity of data required for weather forecasting and global climate
monitoring through the year 2018, and the first satellite was expected to
be ready to act as a backup should the launch of the final satellites in
the predecessor POES and DMSP programs fail.

The NPOESS program office has made progress over the last years in trying
to reduce project risks by developing critical sensors early and by
planning the NPOESS Preparatory Project to demonstrate key sensors and

the data processing system well before the first NPOESS launch. However,
the NPOESS program faces key programmatic and technical risks that may
affect the successful and timely deployment of the system. Specifically,
changing funding streams and revised schedules have delayed the expected
launch date of the first NPOESS satellite, and concerns with the
development of key sensors and the data processing system may cause
additional delays in the satellite launch date. These factors could affect
the continuity of weather data needed for weather forecasts and climate
monitoring. NPOESS Program Office Is

Working to Address Risks

Page 28 GAO- 03- 987T

This concludes my statement. I would be pleased to respond to any
questions that you or other members of the Subcommittee may have at this
time.

If you have any questions regarding this testimony, please contact David
Powner at (202) 512- 9286 or by E- mail at pownerd@ gao. gov. Individuals
making key contributions to this testimony include Barbara Collier, John
Dale, Ramnik Dhaliwal, Colleen Phillips, and Cynthia Scott. Contact and
Acknowledgements

Page 29 GAO- 03- 987T

Our objectives were to provide an overview of our nation*s current
polarorbiting weather satellite program and the planned National Polar-
orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) program and
to identify key risks to the successful and timely deployment of NPOESS.

To provide an overview of the nation*s current and future polar- orbiting
weather satellite system programs, we relied on prior GAO reviews of the
satellite programs of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
(NOAA) and the Department of Defense (DOD). We reviewed documents from
NOAA, DOD, and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA)
that describe the purpose and origin of the polar satellite program and
the status of the NPOESS program. We also interviewed Integrated Program
Office and NASA officials to determine the program*s background, status,
and plans.

To identify key risks to the successful and timely deployment of NPOESS,
we assessed the NPOESS acquisition status and program risk reduction
efforts to understand how the program office plans to manage the
acquisition and mitigate the risks to successful NPOESS implementation. We
reviewed descriptions of the NPOESS sensors and interviewed officials at
the Integrated Program Office, NASA, and DOD to determine the status of
key sensors, program segments, and risk reduction activities. We also
reviewed documents and interviewed program office officials on plans to
address NPOESS challenges.

NOAA, DOD, and NASA officials generally agreed with the facts as presented
in this statement and provided some technical corrections, which we have
incorporated. We performed our work at the NPOESS Integrated Program
Office, NASA headquarters, and DOD offices, all located in the Washington,
D. C., metropolitan area. Our work was performed between April and July
2003 in accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.
Appendix I. Objectives, Scope, and

Methodology

(310445)

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