2000 Census: Lessons Learned for Planning a More Cost-Effective  
2010 Census (31-OCT-02, GAO-03-40).				 
                                                                 
GAO reviewed the funding of 2000 Census planning and development 
efforts and the impact it had on census operations. Total funding
for the 2000 Census, referred to as the life cycle cost, covers a
13-year period from fiscal year 1991 through fiscal year 2003 and
is expected to total $6.5 billion adjusted to 2000 year dollars. 
This amount was almost double the reported life cycle cost of the
1990 Census of $3.3 billion adjusted to 2000 year dollars.	 
Considering these escalating costs, the experience of the U.S.	 
Census Bureau in preparing for the 2000 Census offers valuable	 
insights for the planning and development efforts now occurring  
for the 2010 Census. Thorough and comprehensive planning and	 
development efforts are crucial to the ultimate efficiency and	 
success of any large, long-term project, particularly one with	 
the scope, magnitude, and the deadlines of the U.S. decennial	 
census. For fiscal years 1991 through 1997, $269 million was	 
requested in the President's Budgets for 2000 Census planning and
development and the program received funding of $224 million by  
Congress, or 83 percent of the amount requested. According to	 
U.S. Census Bureau records, the bulk of the $86 million in	 
funding received through the end of fiscal year 1995 was	 
obligated for program development and evaluation methodologies,  
testing and dress rehearsals, and planning for the acquisition of
automated data processing and telecommunications support. The	 
U.S. Census Bureau was responsible for carrying out its mission  
within the budget provided and bureau management determined the  
specific areas in which available resources were invested. GAO	 
could not determine what effect, if any, that higher funding	 
levels might have had on bureau operations as this is dependent  
upon actual implementation and the results of management	 
decisions that may or may not have occurred. According to bureau 
officials, early planning and development efforts for the 2000	 
Census were adversely affected by lower funding than requested	 
for fiscal years 1993 through 1997. They identified 10 areas	 
where additional funding could have been beneficial. These	 
included difficulties in retaining knowledgeable staff, scaled	 
back plans for testing and evaluating 1990 Census data, delays in
implementing a planning database, and limited resources to update
address databases. The bureau's experience in preparing for the  
2000 Census underscores the importance of solid, upfront planning
and adequate funding levels to carry out those plans.		 
-------------------------Indexing Terms------------------------- 
REPORTNUM:   GAO-03-40						        
    ACCNO:   A05434						        
  TITLE:     2000 Census: Lessons Learned for Planning a More	      
Cost-Effective 2010 Census					 
     DATE:   10/31/2002 
  SUBJECT:   Appropriated funds 				 
	     Budget administration				 
	     Census						 
	     Funds management					 
	     Life cycle costs					 
	     Best practices					 
	     Budget obligations 				 
	     2000 Decennial Census				 
	     1990 Decennial Census				 
	     2010 Decennial Census				 

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GAO-03-40

                                       A

Report to Congressional Requesters

October 2002 2000 CENSUS Lessons Learned for Planning a More Cost-
Effective 2010 Census

GAO- 03- 40

Letter 1 Results in Brief 2 Background 5 Total Funding for Bureau Planning
Was Lower Than Requested 7 Funding and Other Factors Affected Planning
Efforts 9 2000 Census Planning Provides Lessons Learned for The 2010

Census 14 Conclusions 17 Recommendation for Executive Action 18 Agency
Comments and Our Evaluation 18

Appendixes

Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology 20

Appendix II: Analysis of Funding by Fiscal Year for Planning and
Development of the 2000 Census 22

Appendix III: Comments From the Department of Commerce 38 GAO Comments 42

Tables Table 1: 2000 Census Planning and Development Funding Requested and
Received for Fiscal Years 1991 Through

1997 (dollars in millions) 8 Table 2: 2000 Census Planning and Development
Funding for Fiscal Year 1992 (dollars in millions) 23

Table 3: 2000 Census Planning and Development Funding for Fiscal Year 1993
(dollars in millions) 25 Table 4: 2000 Census Planning and Development
Funding for Fiscal Year 1994 (dollars in millions) 28 Table 5: 2000 Census
Planning and Development Funding for Fiscal Year 1995 (dollars in
millions) 30 Table 6: 2000 Census Planning and Development Funding for
Fiscal Year 1996 (dollars in millions) 33 Table 7: 2000 Census Planning
and Development Funding for Fiscal Year 1997 (dollars in millions) 35

Abbreviations

AIR American Indian Reservation DADS Data Access and Dissemination System
DSF Delivery Sequence File FTE full- time equivalent ICM Integrated
Coverage Measurement MAF Master Address File OMB Office of Management and
Budget TIGER Topologically Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing

Lett er

October 31, 2002 The Honorable William Lacy Clay, Jr. House of
Representatives The Honorable Carolyn B. Maloney House of Representatives

This report responds to your request to review the funding of 2000 Census
planning and development efforts and the impact it had on census
operations. Total funding for the 2000 Census, referred to as the life
cycle

cost, covers a 13- year period from fiscal year 1991 through fiscal year
2003 and is expected to total about $6. 5 billion adjusted to 2000 year
dollars. This amount was almost double the reported life cycle cost of the
1990 Census of $3.3 billion adjusted to 2000 year dollars. Current life
cycle unadjusted cost estimates of the 2010 Census range from $10 billion
to $12 billion. Considering these escalating costs, the experience of the
U. S. Census Bureau in preparing for the 2000 Census offers valuable
insights for the planning and development effort now occurring for the
2010 Census. This report is part of a series of GAO studies on lessons to
be learned from the 2000 Census that can help bureau efforts to conduct an
accurate and cost- effective census in 2010.

We classified 2000 Census efforts into the following three phases. * The
planning and development phase consisted of a variety of activities to
prepare for the actual decennial census count on April 1, 2000.

Although planning and development efforts continued into subsequent phases
of the census, this phase involved 7 fiscal years from 1991 through 1997
with actual funding of about $238 million adjusted to 2000 year dollars,
or about 4 percent of the total decennial life cycle cost.  The
implementation phase included conducting the 1998 dress rehearsal,
establishing 511 temporary local census offices in the 50 states, hiring
and training over 500, 000 temporary personnel, and then

conducting the actual census count. This phase involved 3 fiscal years
from 1998 through 2000 with actual funding of about $5. 6 billion adjusted
to 2000 year dollars, or about 86 percent of the total decennial life
cycle cost.  The postenumeration phase involves compiling and checking
the census counts for public release by April 1, 2001, for subsequent use
in

congressional redistricting, and for other postcensus studies. This phase
covers 3 fiscal years from 2001 through 2003 with estimated funding of
about $686 million adjusted to 2000 year dollars, or about 10 percent of
the total decennial life cycle cost.

As agreed with your offices, our review focused on the planning and
development phase of the 2000 Census and (1) the funding requested,
received, and obligated, with funding received and obligated by major
planning category, 1 (2) funding and other factors that affected planning
efforts, and (3) lessons learned for the 2010 Census. Our analysis was
based on unaudited budget and financial data provided by the U. S. Census

Bureau. We performed our work between January 2001 and July 2001 at which
time our review was suspended due to an inability to obtain access to
certain budget records. After lengthy discussions with senior officials of
the bureau, the Department of Commerce, and the Office of Management and
Budget (OMB), and consultation with your staffs, this access issue was
resolved in May 2002 and we completed our analysis in June 2002. Our work
was done in accordance with U. S. generally accepted government auditing
standards. Further details on our scope and methodology are presented in
appendix I.

The Department of Commerce provided written comments on a draft of this
report, including two attachments. We reprinted the comments in appendix
III, except for the second attachment, Potential Life- Cycle Savings for
the 2010 Census, which the bureau stated is currently under

revision and is outside the scope of our review. Results in Brief Thorough
and comprehensive planning and development efforts are crucial

to the ultimate efficiency and success of any large, long- term project,
particularly one with the scope, magnitude, and deadlines of the U. S.
decennial census. For fiscal years 1991 through 1997, about $269 million
was requested in the President*s Budgets for 2000 Census planning and
development and the program received funding of about $224 million by the
Congress, or about 83 percent of the amount requested. For fiscal years

1 The bureau*s use of major categories evolved from 1 activity of general
planning in fiscal year 1991, to 8 major study areas in fiscal years 1992
and 1993, to 8 to 15 broad categories called frameworks beginning in 1994.
For internal management and reporting, the bureau further identified
program efforts by activities and projects that have varied since fiscal
year 1991.

1991 and 1992, OMB deemed the Department of Commerce requests to fund
early census reform as insufficient and doubled the amounts to $1. 5
million and $10.1 million, respectively. These amounts were included in
the President*s Budgets and the Congress concurred by authorizing the full
amount requested. However, funding reductions by the Congress occurred

every subsequent fiscal year from 1993 through 1997. According to the
bureau, these reductions resulted in the elimination, deferral, or scaling
back of certain projects in planning for the 2000 Census. The bureau
obligated 99 percent of its appropriated 2000 Census funding through
fiscal year 1997.

According to U. S. Census Bureau records, the bulk of the $86 million in
funding received through the end of fiscal year 1995 was obligated for
program development and evaluation methodologies, testing and dress
rehearsals, and planning for the acquisition of automated data processing
and telecommunications support. For fiscal years 1996 and 1997, bureau
records indicated the bulk of $138 million of decennial funding received
was obligated for planning for the establishment of field data collection
and

support systems, refining data content and products, evaluating test
results, and procuring automated data processing and telecommunications
support. For the planning and development phase, personnel costs consumed
about 53 percent of total costs; contractual services consumed 16 percent;
and space, supplies, travel, and other expenses consumed the remaining 31
percent. The U. S. Census Bureau was responsible for carrying out its
mission within

the budget provided and bureau management determined the specific areas in
which available resources were invested. We could not determine what
effect, if any, that higher funding levels might have had on bureau

operations as this is dependent upon actual implementation and the results
of management decisions that may or may not have occurred. According to
bureau officials, early planning and development efforts for the 2000
Census were adversely affected by lower funding than requested for fiscal
years 1993 through 1997. They identified 10 areas where additional funding

could have been beneficial. These included difficulties in retaining
knowledgeable staff, scaled back plans for testing and evaluating 1990
Census data, delays in implementing a planning database, and limited
resources to update address databases. While lower funding may have
affected these areas, information from various bureau and GAO reports and
testimony, as well as our current review, showed that operational,
methodological, and other factors also contributed to weaknesses in the
bureau*s planning efforts.

The bureau*s experience in preparing for the 2000 Census underscores the
importance of solid, upfront planning and adequate funding levels to carry
out those plans. As we have reported in the past, planning a decennial
census that is acceptable to stakeholders 2 includes analyzing the lessons

learned from past practices, identifying initiatives that show promise for
producing a better census while controlling costs, testing these
initiatives to ensure their feasibility, and convincing stakeholders of
the value of proposed plans. A major contributing factor to the funding
reductions was the bureau*s persistent lack of comprehensive planning and
priority setting,

coupled with minimal research, testing, and evaluation documentation to
promote informed and timely decision making. Over the course of the 1990s,
the Congress, GAO, and others criticized the bureau for not fully
addressing such areas as (1) capitalizing on its experiences from past
decennial censuses to serve as lessons learned in future planning, (2)

documenting its planning efforts, particularly early in the process, (3)
concentrating its efforts on the few critical projects that significantly
affected the census count, such as obtaining a complete and accurate
address list, (4) presenting key implementation issues with decision

milestones, and (5) identifying key performance measures for success. In
light of the challenges facing the bureau as it prepares for the next
decennial census in 2010, we are recommending to the Secretary of Commerce
that the bureau*s requests for funding of planning and

development activity provide comprehensive information supported by sound
data. This information would include, but is not limited to, such
information as

 specific performance goals for the 2010 Census and how bureau efforts,
procedures, and projects would contribute to those goals;

 detailed information on project feasibility, priorities, and potential
risks;

 key implementation issues and decision milestones; and,

 performance measures. 2 Stakeholders include the Congress, federal
agencies, state and local governments, the public, demographers, and
others who rely upon census information.

The department agreed with our recommendation and stated that the bureau
is expanding documents justifying its budgetary requests.

Background As a result of controversy and litigation surrounding the 1990
Decennial Census, the U. S. Census Bureau recognized the need for a full-
scale review of its decennial census program. The Congress, OMB, and GAO
also agreed that this review was needed and that it must occur early in
the decade to implement viable actions for the 2000 Census and to prepare
for the 2010 Census. 3 Early in the 1990s, in reports and testimonies, we
stressed the importance of strong planning and the need for fundamental
reform to avoid the risk of a very expensive and seriously flawed census
in 2000. 4

To address a redesign effort, in November 1990 the bureau formed the Task
Force for Planning the Year 2000 Census and Census- Related Activities for
2000- 2009. The task force was to consider lessons learned from the 1990
Census, technical and policy issues, constitutional and statutory
mandates, changes in U. S. society since earlier decennial censuses, and
the most current knowledge of statistical and social measurement. The
bureau also established a Year 2000 Research and Development Staff to
assist the task

force and conduct numerous research projects designed to develop new
approaches and techniques for possible implementation in the 2000 Census.
In June 1995, the task force issued its report, Reinventing the Decennial
Census.

Concerns about the 1990 Census also led the Congress to pass the Decennial
Census Improvement Act of 1991 (Public Law 102- 135) requiring the
National Academy of Sciences to study the means by which the government
could achieve the most accurate population count possible and collect
other demographic and housing data. The academy established a panel on
methods to provide an independent review of the technical and operational
feasibility of design alternatives and tests conducted by the

3 Global Report of the Task Force for Planning the Year 2000 Census,
Reinventing the Decennial Census (Washington, D. C.: June 1995). 4 U. S.
General Accounting Office, Census Reform Needs Attention Now, GAO/ T- GGD-
91- 13 (Washington, D. C.: Mar. 12, 1991); Decennial Census: 1990 Results
Show Need for Fundamental Reform, GAO/ GGD- 92- 94 (Washington, D. C.:
June 9, 1992); Decennial Census: Fundamental Reform Jeopardized by Lack of
Progress, GAO/ T- GGD- 93- 6 (Washington, D. C.: Mar. 2, 1993); and
Decennial Census: Focused Action Needed Soon to Achieve Fundamental
Breakthroughs, GAO/ T- GGD- 93- 32 (Washington, D. C.: May 27, 1993).

U. S. Census Bureau. The panel issued its final report in September 1994.
A second academy panel on requirements examined the role of the decennial
census within the federal statistical system and issued its final report
in November 1994.

In March 1995, the bureau conducted the 1995 Census Test which provided a
critical source of information to decide by December 1995 the final design
of the 2000 Census. These efforts resulted in a planned approach for
reengineering the 2000 Census which was presented in a May 19, 1995, U. S.

Census Bureau report, The Reengineered 2000 Census.

In October 1995, we testified on the bureau*s plans for the 2000 Census. 5
In that testimony, we concluded that the established approach used to
conduct the 1990 Census had exhausted its potential for counting the
population cost- effectively and that fundamental design changes were
needed to reduce census costs and to improve the quality of data
collected. We also raised concerns about the bureau proceeding with design
plans for the 2000 Census without input from the Congress. In the
intervening months, the bureau was unable to come to agreement with the
Congress on critical design and funding decisions. In February 1997, we
designated the 2000 Decennial Census a new high- risk area because of the
possibility that further delays could jeopardize an effective census and
increase the

likelihood that billions of dollars could be spent and the nation be left
with demonstrably inaccurate census results. 6 In July 1997, we updated
our 1995 testimony on bureau design and planning initiatives for the 2000
Census and assessed the feasibility of bureau plans for carrying out the

2000 Census. 7 5 U. S. General Accounting Office, Decennial Census:
Fundamental Design Decisions Merit Congressional Attention, GAO/ T- GGD-
96- 37 (Washington, D. C.: Oct. 25, 1995). 6 U. S. General Accounting
Office, The High- Risk Series, GAO/ HR- 97- 2 (Washington, D. C.: Feb.
1997) is a special effort to review and report on the federal program
areas we have identified as high risk because of their vulnerability to
waste, fraud, abuse, or

mismanagement. 7 U. S. General Accounting Office, 2000 Census: Progress
Made on Design, but Risks Remain, GAO/ GGD- 97- 142 (Washington, D. C.:
July 14, 1997).

To respond to Title VIII of Public Law 105- 18, which required the
Department of Commerce to provide detailed data about the bureau*s plans
by July 12, 1997, the bureau issued its Report to Congress, The Plan For

Census 2000. This plan also incorporated the bureau*s Census 2000
Operational Plan that was updated annually. In November 1997, Public Law
105- 119 established the Census Monitoring Board to observe and monitor
all aspects of the bureau*s preparation and implementation of the 2000
Census. 8 Section 209 (j) of this legislation also required the bureau to
plan for dual tracks of the traditional count methodology and the use of
statistical sampling to identify historically undercounted populations of
children and minorities.

Census Appropriations As 1 of 13 bureaus within the Department of
Commerce, the U. S. Census Bureau must submit its annual budget for review
and inclusion in the department*s budget. The department must then make
choices in consideration of its overall budget to OMB and will therefore
make adjustments to bureau- requested budgets as deemed necessary. OMB
will review and further adjust department and bureau budgets to consider
the

programs and priorities of the entire federal government that become the
President*s Budget. The Congress may then adjust the President*s Budget
through the appropriation process that becomes the budget of the
departments and the bureaus after signature by the President. The
appropriations for decennial census are no- year funds that are available
until expended, rescinded, transferred, or until the account is closed.

Total Funding for As shown in table 1, the Department of Commerce
requested a total of Bureau Planning Was $268.7 million for 2000 Census
planning and development in the President*s

Budgets for fiscal years 1991 through 1997. The program received total
Lower Than Requested funding of $223. 7 million from the Congress, or
about 83 percent of the amount requested. Although the 2000 Census
received all of the funding

requested in the President*s Budgets for fiscal years 1991 and 1992, it
received reduced funding for each fiscal year from 1993 through 1997.
According to the bureau, these reductions resulted in the elimination,
deferral, or scaling back of certain projects in planning for the 2000
Census. The bureau subsequently obligated 99 percent of its appropriated
2000 Census funding through fiscal year 1997.

8 Public Law 105- 119, S: 210, 111 Stat. 2483 (Nov. 26, 1997).

Table 1: 2000 Census Planning and Development Funding Requested and
Received for Fiscal Years 1991 Through 1997 (dollars in millions) 2000
Census requested

funding (President*s 2000 Census appropriated

2000 Census requested Percent of requested

Fiscal year Budget) a funding by Congress b funding not appropriated
annual funding received

1991 $1. 5 $1. 5 $0 100 1992 10. 1 10. 1 0 100 1993 19. 4 13. 7 5.7 71
1994 23. 1 18. 7 4.4 81 1995 48. 6 42. 0 6.6 86 1996 60. 1 51. 3 8.8 85
1997 105.9 86. 4 19.5 82

Tot al $268.7 $223. 7 $45.0 83 a Amounts include prior year recoveries of
$1.6 million.

b Amounts include prior year recoveries and carry- in of $16.1 million.
Source: U. S. Census Bureau.

Bureau records indicated that the bulk of $86 million of decennial funding
received through the end of fiscal year 1995 was obligated for program
development and evaluation methodologies, testing and dress rehearsals,
and planning for the acquisition of automated data processing and
telecommunications support. For fiscal years 1996 and 1997, bureau records
indicated that the bulk of $138 million of decennial funding received was
obligated for planning the establishment of field data collection and
support systems, refining data content and products,

evaluating test results, and procuring automated data processing and
telecommunications support. For the planning and development phase,
personnel costs consumed about 53 percent of planning and development
funds; contractual services consumed 16 percent; and space, supplies,

travel, and other expenses consumed the remaining 31 percent. Because of
different major program categories used by the bureau from fiscal years
1991 through 1997, we could not present a comprehensive table of funding
for the period. However, we were able to analyze the funding by fiscal
year and a detailed analysis of funding requested, received, and
obligated, and funds budgeted by major program category for fiscal years
1991 through 1997 are presented in appendix II.

Funding and Other The U. S. Census Bureau was responsible for carrying out
its mission within

Factors Affected the budget provided and bureau management determined the
specific areas

in which available resources were invested. We could not determine what
Planning Efforts effect, if any, that higher funding levels might have had
on census operations as this is dependent upon actual implementation and
the results of management decisions that may or may not have occurred.
However, according to bureau officials, lower than requested funding
levels for fiscal

years 1993 through 1997 adversely affected the bureau*s planning and
development efforts for the 2000 Census. As examples, they cited the
following 10 areas where reduced funding levels caused the bureau to
curtail planning initiatives. Although lower funding levels may have

affected these areas, information from previous bureau and GAO reports and
testimony indicated that operational, methodological, and other factors
also contributed to weaknesses in the bureau*s planning efforts.

1. Difficulties in retaining knowledgeable staff. Although many key bureau
personnel and project managers involved with the 2000 Census had also
worked on the 1990 and earlier decennial censuses, bureau officials stated
that many experienced people retired or left the bureau after the 1990
Census. According to the bureau, a contributing factor was lower funding
levels to pay personnel compensation and benefits, which in turn affected
the number of personnel with institutional knowledge of the decennial
census to lend support to the 2000 Census

planning and development effort. We noted that soon after a major event
such as the decennial census count, it is not unusual for personnel to
leave the bureau, as did three senior executives after the 2000 Census. In
addition, Office of Personnel Management data indicated that over half of
the bureau*s

full- time, nonseasonal work force of 5,345 employees as of March 2002 is
eligible for retirement by 2010. Thus, the human capital issue will remain
a key planning area to ensure that the bureau has the skill mix

necessary to meet its future requirements. 2. Scaled- back plans for
testing and evaluating 1990 Census data. A

bureau official stated that the amount of qualitative and quantitative
data from the 1990 Census was limited and hampered the quality and results
of planning and development efforts for the 2000 Census.

Additionally, many opportunities were lost in capitalizing on the 1990
Census data that did exist and more funding to evaluate this data could
have facilitated 2000 Census research and planning efforts. Bureau

officials stated that as they moved forward with planning for the 2000
Census, they had to scale back plans for testing and evaluating 1990
Census data because of a lack of funding. For example, they cited the
inability to update a 1990 Census study of enumerator supervisor ratios.
3. Delays in implementing a planning database. Bureau officials stated

that they were unable to implement an effective planning database in the
early years of the 2000 Census. In one of its first plans, the bureau
conceived of a planning database that would capture data down to very
small geographic levels and would be continuously updated over the decade
for a number of census purposes. This database would have enabled the
bureau to target areas where language resources were needed, identify
areas where enumeration and recruiting could be difficult, and position
data capture centers to support the most costefficient and effective
infrastructure. However, according to bureau officials, with lower funding
through fiscal year 1995, the planning database was put on hold. Later in
the decade, the bureau resurrected the planning database but did not
develop and use it fully. 4. Limited resources to update address
databases. According to bureau

officials, sufficient resources to update and coordinate large databases
of addresses and physical locations provided a continuous challenge to the
bureau. At the end of the 1990 Census, the bureau*s database contained 102
million addresses, each assigned to the census block

area in which it was located. At that point, the U. S. Census Bureau*s
Geography Division initiated discussions with the U. S. Postal Service to
utilize its Delivery Sequence File (DSF) that contained millions of
addresses used to deliver the U. S. mail. 9 The bureau planned to use the

DSF in updating its address database which became the Master Address File
(MAF). 10 With lower funding through 1995, bureau officials cited limited
resources to update the MAF database and to assess the quality of entered
information.

9 The Census Address List Improvement Act of 1994 (Public Law 103- 430),
required the U. S. Census Bureau to use the DSF and address lists from
local and tribal governments to build the Census 2000 address list. 10 MAF
is a computer database of household addresses contained in the database
from the 1990 Census, various versions of the U. S. Postal Service*s DSF,
and update information provided by state, local, and tribal governments.
The MAF was to be updated throughout the decade to provide a basis for
producing address labels needed to deliver 2000 Census questionnaires, to
track questionnaires returned, and to identify addresses for later site
visits by enumerators.

5. Program to identify duplicate responses was not fully developed. Bureau
officials stated the program to identify duplicate responses was not fully
developed for the 2000 Census and more emphasis and funding were needed to
develop appropriate software and procedures. It is important to be able to
identify duplications in the MAF and

multiple responses from a person or household that contribute to a
population overcount. This includes operations to identify multiple
responses for the same address and computer matching of census responses
received against all other people enumerated in the block.

Duplications also occurred due to college students counted both at school
and at home, people with multiple residences, and military personnel
residing outside their home state. 6. Abandoned plans to use
administrative records. In early planning for the 2000 Census, the bureau
funded efforts to use records from

nonbureau sources of information (such as driver licenses, voter
registrations, and other government programs) to supplement the census
count. This administrative records project was the result of extensive
research studies conducted by the bureau beginning in 1993

that focused on initial plans for three uses of nonbureau information to

 derive census totals for some nonresponding households,

 enhance the coverage measurement operations, and

 help provide missing content from otherwise responding households.
Although bureau officials determined that administrative records had the
potential to improve coverage, the bureau abandoned plans to fund and more
fully develop an administrative records database in February 1997. While
the lack of funding may have been a contributing factor,

bureau documents indicated that this action was primarily due to questions
about the accuracy and quality of administrative records and issues of
privacy protection. 7. Problems with multiple language questionnaires.
Bureau officials cited several funding and operational problems with
census questionnaires in the five languages that were used other than

English. 11 In 1995, the bureau planned to mail forms in both Spanish 11
Questionnaires were available in Spanish, Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, and
Tagalog.

and English to areas with high concentrations of Spanish speakers and
produce forms in other languages as needed. In March 1997, in response to
requests for forms in other languages, the bureau announced its intent to
print questionnaires in multiple languages in an effort to increase the
mail response rate. The bureau selected four additional languages as a
manageable number based upon a perceived

demand. However, the bureau could not determine how to pinpoint the
communities that needed the non- English questionnaires. Instead, the
bureau indicated in a mailing that the questionnaires were available in
five languages and if an individual wanted a questionnaire in a language

other than English, the individual had to specifically request the
questionnaire in that language. As a result, the bureau did not know the
number of questionnaires to print in the five languages until late in the
process. Finally, the bureau did not have the time to comprehensively
assess the demand for questionnaires in other languages.

8. Cost- effective use of emerging data capture technology. Early bureau
research assessed current and emerging data capture technologies, such as
electronic imaging, optical mark recognition, and hand- held devices,
which offered the potential for significant cost reductions in processing
large volumes of data. Bureau officials indicated they were

unsure of their exact requirements for the emerging data capture
technologies, and this resulted in most contracts being costreimbursement
contracts 12 that required more funding than planned. The bureau estimated
that it ultimately spent about $500 million on contracts to improve the
data capturing process.

Bureau officials also stated that they did not have the time to fully
develop and test the data capture systems or data capture centers, both of
which were contracted for the first time in the 2000 Census. For example,
the bureau said it could not adequately prepare for the full development
and testing of the imaging contract. As a consequence,

the first imaging test did not occur until 1998, and bureau officials
stated that it became clear that imaging was not working due to technical
and implementation problems. To some extent, this is not unexpected when
implementing new technologies. Although the 12 Cost- reimbursement
contracts allow for payment of all allowable incurred costs within a
predetermined ceiling set in the contract. Cost- reimbursement contracts
place less cost and performance risk on the contractor, as opposed to
fixed- price contracts, which place more responsibility on the contractor
for performance costs and resulting profit or loss.

contractor and the bureau felt the system was not ready, it was tested
anyway due to the short time frame and major problems developed. Even
though the system eventually became operational in time for the 2000
Census count, bureau officials indicated that this occurred at a higher
than anticipated risk and cost. 9. More use of the Internet. In the early
1990s, the full impact of the

Internet as a global communications tool was not yet envisioned. Officials
indicated that the bureau did not have sufficient time and funding during
the planning phase to fully understand and test all the implications of
using the Internet as a vehicle for census responses. In addition, the
bureau*s major concern was that computer security issues had not been
adequately addressed, particularly since census

information must be protected and significant penalties may be imposed for
unauthorized disclosure. 13 Also, the public perception of using the
Internet as a response medium had not been fully explored.

Nevertheless, in February 1999, the bureau established a means for
respondents to complete the 2000 Census short forms on the Internet
protected by a 22- digit identification number. According to bureau
officials, they received about 60, 000 short forms via the Internet. The
rapid evolution of the Internet has the potential to significantly reduce
bureau workload and the large volume of paper forms for the 2010 Census.

10. Preparation for dress rehearsals. Bureau officials cited many problems
during the fiscal year 1998 dress rehearsals for the 2000 Census that were
a direct result of funding levels in the early planning

and development years. They stated that because of delays in receiving
funding in the fall of 1997, they had to delay the dress rehearsal census
day from April 4 to April 18, 1998. In addition, because many new items

were incomplete or still under development, the bureau said it could not
fully test them during the dress rehearsals with any degree of assurance
as to how they would affect the 2000 Census.

13 Title 13 U. S. C. S: 9 prohibits (1) use of the information furnished
under Title 13 for any purpose other than the statistical purposes for
which it is supplied, (2) making any publication whereby the data
furnished by any particular establishment or individual under Title 13 can
be identified, or (3) permitting anyone other than sworn officers and
employees

of the Department of Commerce or agency thereof to examine individual
reports. Title 13 U. S. C. S: 214 and 18 U. S. C. S: 3551, et seq.,
provides for a fine of not more than $250, 000 or imprisonment for not
more than 5 years, or both, for disclosure of census information
prohibited by 13 U. S. C. S: 9.

However, despite these problems, the bureau testified in March 1998 that
all preparatory activities for the dress rehearsal* mapping, address
listing, local updates of addresses, opening and staffing offices, and
printing questionnaires* had been completed. 14 In 1999, the bureau issued
an

evaluation that concluded that all in all, the Census 2000 dress rehearsal
was successful. 15 The evaluation also stated that the bureau produced
population numbers on time that compared favorably with independent
benchmarks. It also acknowledged some problems, but devised methods to
address those problems. Although the bureau conceded that planning efforts
could be improved, the lack of funding did not appear to be a significant
issue, except as it affected the ability to earlier plan the dress
rehearsal. 2000 Census Planning

The bureau*s experience in preparing for the 2000 Census underscores the
importance of solid, upfront planning and adequate funding levels to carry
Provides Lessons

out those plans. As we have reported in the past, 16 planning a decennial
Learned for The 2010 census that is acceptable to stakeholders includes
analyzing the lessons Census

learned from past practices, identifying initiatives that show promise for
producing a better census while controlling costs, testing these
initiatives to ensure their feasibility, and convincing stakeholders of
the value of proposed plans.

Contributing factors to the funding reductions for the 2000 Census were
the bureau*s persistent lack of comprehensive planning and priority
setting, coupled with minimal research, testing, and evaluation
documentation to promote informed and timely decision making. Over the
course of the

decade, the Congress, GAO, and others criticized the bureau for not fully
addressing such areas as (1) capitalizing on its experiences from past
decennial censuses to serve as lessons to be learned in future planning,

(2) documenting its planning efforts, particularly early in the process,
(3) concentrating its efforts on a few critical projects that
significantly affected the census count, such as obtaining a complete and
accurate 14 U. S. Census Bureau, Prepared Statement of James F. Holmes,
Acting Director (Washington, D. C.: Mar. 26, 1998). 15 U. S. Census
Bureau, Census 2000 Dress Rehearsal Evaluation Summary (Suitland, MD:

1999). 16 GAO/ GGD- 97- 142.

address list, (4) presenting key implementation issues with decision
milestones, and (5) identifying key performance measures for success.

 Capitalizing on experiences from past censuses. In a fiscal year 1993
conference report, 17 the Congress stated that the bureau should direct
its resources towards a more cost- effective census design that would
produce more accurate results than those from the 1990 Census. Further,
the Congress expected the bureau to focus on realistic alternative means
of collecting data, such as the use of existing surveys, rolling sample
surveys, or other vehicles and that cost considerations should be a
substantial factor in evaluating the desirability of design

alternatives. In March 1993 we testified 18 that time available for
fundamental census reform was slipping away and important decisions were
needed by September 1993 to guide planning for 1995 field tests, shape
budget and

operational planning for the rest of the census cycle, and guide future
discussions with interested parties. We noted that the bureau*s strategy
for identifying promising census designs and features was proving to be
cumbersome and time consuming, and the bureau had progressed

slowly in reducing the design alternatives for the next census down to a
manageable number.  Documenting early planning efforts. It is
particularly important early in the planning process to provide a roadmap
for further work. We found that the bureau did not document its 2000
Census planning until

late in the planning phase. While the U. S. Census Bureau prepared a few
pages to justify its annual budget requests for fiscal years 1991 through
1997, it did not provide a substantive document of its 2000 Census
planning efforts until May 1995, and this plan was labeled a draft. 19
Finally, the Congress mandated that the bureau issue a comprehensive and
detailed plan for the 2000 Census within 30 days from enactment of the
law. 20 On July 12, 1997, the bureau issued its

17 U. S. House of Representatives, Making Appropriations for the
Departments of Commerce, Justice, and State, the Judiciary, and Related
Agencies for the Fiscal Year Ending September 30, 1993, Report 102- 918
(Washington, D. C.: Sep. 28, 1992).

18 GAO/ T- GGD- 93- 6. 19 U. S. Census Bureau, The Reengineered 2000
Census (Suitland, MD: May 19, 1995). 20 Public Law 105- 18, Title VIII
(June 12, 1997).

Report to the Congress* The Plan for Census 2000, along with its

Census 2000 Operational Plan. 21

 Concentrating efforts on a few critical projects. While the bureau
required many activities to count a U. S. population of 281 million
residing in 117.3 million households, a few critical activities
significantly affected the Census 2000 count, such as obtaining a complete
and accurate address list. Although the bureau was aware of serious
problems with its address list development process, it did not

acknowledge the full impact of these problems until the first quarter of
1997. Based upon its work with the postal service database, the 1995
Census Test, and pilot testing at seven sites, the bureau had gained
sufficient evidence that its existing process would result in an
unacceptably inaccurate address list due to  inconsistencies in the
quality of the postal service database across

the nation;

 missing addresses for new construction;

 difficulties in identifying individual units in multiunit structures,
such as apartment buildings; and

 inability of local and tribal governments to provide usable address
lists.

In September 1997, the bureau acknowledged these problems and proposed
changes. 22 However, we believe that this action occurred too late in the
planning process and was not given a higher priority to benefit the 2000
Census enumeration.

 Presenting key implementation issues and decision milestones. The bureau
discussed program areas as part of its annual budget requests for fiscal
years 1991 through 1997, but the requests did not identify key

implementation issues with decision milestones to target its planning
activities. Decision milestones did not appear until July 1997, when the
21 The bureau distributed a revised and reissued version of this report in
August 1997. 22 U. S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Address List
Reengineering, (Suitland, MD: Sept. 24, 1997).

bureau issued its Census 2000 Operational Plan. Stakeholders such as the
Congress are more likely to approve plans and funding requests when they
are thoroughly documented and include key elements such as decision
milestones.  Identifying key performance measures. Census planning
documents provided to us through fiscal year 1997 did not identify key
performance measures. We believe that identifying key performance measures
is critical to assessing success in the planning phase of the

census and can provide quantitative targets for accomplishments by
framework, activity, and individual projects. Such measures could include
performance goals such as increasing mail response rates, reducing
population overcount and undercount rates, and improving enumerator
productivity rates. Conclusions The lessons learned from planning the 2000
Census become even more crucial in planning for the next decennial census
in 2010, which has current

unadjusted life cycle cost estimates ranging from $10 billion to $12
billion. Thorough and comprehensive planning and development efforts are
crucial to the ultimate efficiency and success of any large, long- term
project, particularly one with the scope, magnitude, and deadlines of the
U. S. decennial census. Initial investment in planning activities in areas
such as technology and administrative infrastructure can yield significant
gains in efficiency, effectiveness, and cost reduction in the later
implementation

phase. The success of the planning and development activities now
occurring will be a major factor in determining whether this large
investment will result in an accurate and efficient national census in
2010. Critical considerations are

 early planning;

 a comprehensive and prioritized plan of goals, objectives, and projects;

 milestones and performance measures; and

 documentation to support research, testing, and evaluation. A well-
supported plan early in the process that includes these elements will be a
major factor in ensuring that stakeholders have the information to make
funding decisions.

Recommendation for As the U. S. Census Bureau plans for the 2010 Census,
we recommend that Executive Action

the Secretary of Commerce direct that the bureau provide comprehensive
information backed by supporting documentation in its future funding
requests for planning and development activities, that would include, but
is not limited to, such items as  specific performance goals for the 2010
Census and how bureau efforts,

procedures, and projects would contribute to those goals;

 detailed information on project feasibility, priorities, and potential
risks;

 key implementation issues and decision milestones; and

 performance measures. Agency Comments and

In commenting on our report, the department agreed with our Our Evaluation
recommendation and stated that the bureau is expanding the documents
justifying its budgetary requests. For example, the bureau cited a
document which outlines planned information technology development and
activities throughout the decennial cycle of the 2010 Census. The

bureau also included a two- page document, Reengineering the 2010 Census,
which presented three integrated components and other plans to improve
upon the 2000 Census. In this regard, it is essential that, as we

recommended, the bureau follow through with details and documentation to
implement these plans, define and quantify performance measures against
goals, and provide decision milestones for specific activities and
projects.

As agreed with you office, unless you announce its contents earlier, we
plan no futher distribution of this report until 7 days after its issuance
date. At that time, we will send copies of this report to the Chairman and
Ranking Minority Member of the Senate Committee on Governmental Affairs,
the House Committee on Government Reform, and the House Subcommittee on
Civil Service, Census, and Agency Organization. We will also send

copies to the Director of the U. S. Census Bureau, the Secretary of
Commerce, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget, the
Secretary of the Treasury, and other interested parties. This report will
also

be available on GAO*s home page at http:// www. gao. gov.

If you or your staffs have any questions concerning this report, please
contact Gregory D. Kutz at (202) 512- 9095 or kutzg@ gao. gov, Patricia A.
Dalton at (202) 512- 6806 or daltonp@ gao. gov, or Roger R. Stoltz,
Assistant Director, at (202) 512- 9408 or stoltzr@ gao. gov. Key
contributors to this report were Corinne P. Robertson, Robert N.
Goldenkoff, and Ty B. Mitchell.

Gregory D. Kutz Director Financial Management and Assurance

Patricia A. Dalton Director Strategic Issues

Appendi Appendi xes x I

Objectives, Scope, and Methodology The objectives of our review focused on
the planning and development phase of the 2000 Census that we classified
as covering fiscal years 1991 through 1997 and (1) the funding requested,
received, and obligated with funding received and obligated by major
planning category, (2) funding and other factors that affected planning
efforts, and (3) lessons learned for the 2010 Census.

To determine the amount of 2000 Census planning and development funding
requested, received, and obligated, we obtained and analyzed annual
decennial census budgets included in the President*s Budgets for fiscal
years 1991 through 1997, budgets subsequently received after appropriation
by the Congress, and amounts later obligated for the purchase of goods and
services by the bureau against those budgets. We then obtained
explanations from senior bureau officials for significant variances in
these budgets and the effect on decennial planning and

development. However, we did not assess the efficiency of the budgeting
process and the validity, accuracy, and completeness of obligations
against budgeted amounts received.

To determine the funding received and obligated by major planning category
for 2000 Census planning and development, we obtained and analyzed funding
requested, received, and obligated by framework, activity, project, and
object class and examined annual operational plans. However, our analysis
was hampered by the bureau*s inconsistent use of categories that evolved
from 1 activity of general planning in fiscal year 1991, 8 major

study areas in fiscal years 1992 and 1993, and 8 to 15 broad categories
called frameworks beginning in 1994. For internal management and
reporting, the bureau further identified program efforts by activities and
projects that have varied since fiscal year 1991. 23 Additionally, the
bureau expanded, contracted, or modified program names and descriptions
making comparisons more difficult. We also obtained explanations from

bureau officials for significant efforts and variances in its funding
received and obligation of planning and development funding for the 2000
Census. However, we did not assess the merits of budgeting by program and
the subsequent validity, accuracy, and completeness of obligations.

To identify funding and other factors that affected planning efforts, we
analyzed significant changes in funding requested, received, and obligated

23 For example, in fiscal year 2000, within the 8 decennial census
frameworks, the bureau identified 23 activities and 119 projects.

at the framework level; identified initiatives that were reduced,
eliminated, or severely curtailed; discussed the effect of these areas
with bureau officials; and evaluated bureau responses. We also reviewed
various reports, testimony, and supporting documents prepared by the
bureau,

GAO, and others. However, we could not determine what effect, if any, that
higher levels of funding might have had on 2000 Census operations. These
factors are dependent upon actual implementation and the results of
management decisions that may or may not have occurred. To provide lessons
learned for the 2010 Census, we identified areas for improvement and
obtained support from bureau, GAO, and congressional reports, testimony,
interviews, and other documents.

Our work was performed in Washington, D. C. and at U. S. Census Bureau
headquarters in Suitland, Maryland between January and July 2001 when our
review was suspended due to an inability to obtain access to certain
budget records. After lengthy discussions with senior officials of the
bureau, Department of Commerce, and OMB, and consultation with your

staffs, this access issue was resolved in May 2002 and we completed our
analysis in June 2002. Our work was done in accordance with U. S.
generally accepted government auditing standards, except that we did not
audit budget and other financial data provided by the U. S. Census Bureau.

On October 16, 2002, the Department of Commerce provided written comments
on a draft of this report, including two attachments. These comments are
presented in the *Agency Comments and Our Evaluation* section of the
report and are reprinted in appendix III, except for the

second attachment, Potential Life- Cycle Savings for the 2010 Census,

which is currently under revision and is outside the scope of our review.

Analysis of Funding by Fiscal Year for

Appendi x II

Planning and Development of the 2000 Census This appendix includes our
analysis of 2000 Census funding requested, received, and obligated, and
funding received and obligated by major planning category for fiscal years
1991 through 1997. Our analysis was hampered by the bureau*s inconsistent
use of major planning categories that evolved over the period as follows:

 1 activity of general planning in fiscal year 1991,

 8 major study areas in fiscal years 1992 and 1993, and

 8 to 15 broad categories called frameworks beginning in 1994. For
internal management and reporting, the bureau further identified program
efforts by activities and projects that have varied since fiscal year
1991. In addition, the bureau expanded, contracted, or modified program

names and descriptions making comparisons more difficult. Fiscal Year 1991
and 1992 In March 1991 we testified 24 that fundamental census reform was
needed Funding

because escalating costs and the apparently increased undercount of the
1990 Census suggested that the current census methodology may have reached
the limits of its effectiveness. Of three principles we presented,

the last was that the Department of Commerce must be willing to invest
sufficient funds early in the decade to achieve cost savings and census
improvements in 2000. In fact, OMB deemed some of the Department of
Commerce requests to fund early census reform as insufficient and doubled
the department*s requested amounts to $1. 5 million for fiscal year 1991
and $10.1 million for fiscal year 1992. These amounts were included in the
President*s Budgets and the Congress concurred by authorizing the full
amount requested. Census planning officials said that if OMB had not
augmented the department*s request, testing of reform options for 2000
would have been constrained. For the first year of the 7- year 2000 Census
planning and development phase, the fiscal year 1991 funding received was
$1. 5 million and the bureau

obligated the entire amount. The funding contained only one category of
general planning for the 2000 Census with funds to be used for: 24 GAO/ T-
GGD- 91- 13.

 completion of detailed cost- benefit studies of alternatives designs for
conducting the decennial census;

 exploration of new technologies to improve the 2000 Census;

 establishment of research and development efforts for administrative
methods and modeling and estimation techniques; and

 planning of field tests in fiscal year 1993 to include new census
content, methods, technologies, and field structures. Because total
amounts were small and involved only general planning, there were no
significant variances. We noted that about 46 percent of the funding was
obligated for personnel costs relating to 19 full- time equivalent (FTE)
staff, 29 percent for services including consultants; and the

remaining 25 percent for space, supplies, travel, and other costs. Fiscal
year 1992 funding received was $10. 1 million and the bureau obligated
$9.4 million against it. The funding now identified eight major study
areas for the 2000 Census as indicated in table 2.

Table 2: 2000 Census Planning and Development Funding for Fiscal Year 1992
(dollars in millions)

Major study area Description Amount

1 Simplify questionnaire $1. 0 2 Administrative records, modeling, and
estimation 2. 8 3 Technology options for questionnaire distribution and
3.5

collection 4 Various uses of sampling .9 5 Techniques for special areas
and subpopulations .3 6 TIGER b enhancements a 7 Address list maintenance
.8 8 Administration .8

Tot al $10. 1

a Activity or amounts were less than $. 1 million. b Topologically
Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing system.

Source: U. S. Census Bureau.

For fiscal year 1992, the bureau experienced almost a six- fold increase
in its funding received of $10.1 million over the $1.5 million for fiscal
year 1991. About half of the fiscal year 1992 funding was obligated for
personnel costs as a result of almost a five- fold increase in FTE staff
from 19 in fiscal year 1991 to 111 in fiscal year 1992 to work on
decennial planning and development issues. Services, including
consultants, accounted for another quarter of the obligations with the
remaining quarter for space,

supplies, travel, and other costs. Technology options included a $1.7
million services contract to develop emerging data capture technology to
compile census statistics. Fiscal Year 1993 Funding For fiscal year 1993,
the Congress reduced the President*s Budget request of $19. 4 million for
2000 Census planning and development to $13. 7

million, 25 for a reduction of about 29 percent. As a result of this $5.7
million reduction, the bureau made significant cuts in its funding of
techniques for special areas and subpopulations by $2. 2 million, or about
70 percent, and

also eliminated activities to:

 establish contacts with state and local government budgeted for $1. 6
million,

 assess customer needs budgeted for $1.0 million,

 survey public motivation budgeted for $. 8 million, and

 prepare infrastructure for a 1995 Census Test budgeted for $. 5 million.
In a fiscal year 1993 conference report, 26 the Congress stated that the
bureau should direct its resources towards a more cost- effective census
design that will produce more accurate results than those from the 1990
Census. For example, the bureau*s research in fiscal year 1992 indicated

that reducing the number of questions on the census form is an important
way to increase response, thereby increasing accuracy and reducing cost.
25 $13. 0 million of funding plus $. 7 million for prior year recoveries
and carry- in. 26 U. S. House of Representatives, Making Appropriations
for the Departments of Commerce, Justice, and State, the Judiciary, and
Related Agencies for the Fiscal Year Ending September 30, 1993, Report
102- 918 (Washington, D. C.: Sep. 28, 1992).

Therefore, the Congress expected the bureau to focus on realistic
alternative means of collecting data, such as the use of existing surveys,
rolling sample surveys, or other vehicles and that cost considerations
should be a substantial factor in evaluating the desirability of design

alternatives. In March 1993 we testified 27 that time available for
fundamental census reform was slipping away and important decisions were
needed by September 1993 to guide planning for 1995 field tests, shape
budget and

operational planning for the rest of the census cycle, and guide future
discussions with interested parties. The bureau*s strategy for identifying
promising census designs and features was proving to be cumbersome and

time consuming, and the bureau had progressed slowly in reducing the
design alternatives for the next census down to a manageable number.
Fiscal year 1993 funding received was $13. 7 million and the bureau

obligated $13. 5 million against it. The budget continued to identify
eight major study areas for the 2000 Census as indicated in table 3.

Table 3: 2000 Census Planning and Development Funding for Fiscal Year 1993
(dollars in millions)

Major study area Description Amount

1 Simplify questionnaire $1. 2 2 Administrative records, modeling and
estimation 4. 0 3 Technology options for questionnaire distribution and
collection 4. 3 4 Various uses of sampling 1.6 5 Techniques for special
areas and subpopulations .9 6 TIGER b Support .4 7 Address list
maintenance a 8 Administration 1. 3

Total $13. 7

a Activity or amounts were less than $. 1 million. b Topologically
Integrated Geographic Encoding and Referencing system.

Source: U. S. Census Bureau.

27 GAO/ T- GGD- 93- 6.

For fiscal year 1993, the bureau experienced a 36 percent increase in its
funding received of $13.7 million over the $10.1 million for fiscal year
1992. About 53 percent of the fiscal year 1993 funding was obligated for
personnel costs as a result of a 48 percent increase in FTE staff from 111
in fiscal year 1992 to 164 in fiscal year 1993 to work on decennial
planning and

development issues. Services, including consultants, accounted for about
11 percent of the funding with the remaining 36 percent used for space,
supplies, travel, and other costs. Fiscal year 1993 was identified by the
bureau as the beginning of a 3- year period to identify the most promising
changes to be integrated in the 1995 Census Test.

Fiscal Year 1994 Funding For fiscal year 1994, the Congress reduced the
President*s Budget request of $23. 1 million for 2000 Census planning and
development to $18. 7 million, 28 for a reduction of about 19 percent. As
a result of this $4.4 million reduction, the bureau eliminated decennial
operational preparation for $2. 5 million, and reduced funding for
questionnaire design and cost modeling by $1. 6 million or 70 percent.

In May 1993 we testified 29 that the U. S. Census Bureau had altered its
decision- making approach and refocused its 2000 Census research and
development efforts. Driven by its impending September 1993 deadline for

deciding which designs to test in 1995 for the 2000 Census, the bureau
recommended rejecting all 14 design alternatives that had formed the
framework of its research program that was under study for a year.
Instead, the bureau reverted to an earlier approach of concentrating
favorable features into the design for application in the 2000 Census.

28 $8. 1 million of funding plus $10. 6 million for prior year recoveries
and carry- in. 29 GAO/ T- GGD- 93- 32.

A fiscal year 1994 House Appropriations Committee report 30 cited our May
1993 testimony and stated that it was unacceptable for the bureau to
conduct the 2000 Census under a process that followed the general plan

used in the 1990 Census. A fiscal year 1994 conference report 31 expressed
concern that the U. S. Census Bureau had not adequately addressed cost and
scope issues for the 2000 Census and expected the Department of Commerce
and OMB to take a more active role in planning for the

decennial census to ensure that data requirements for federal agencies and
state and local government were considered in the planning effort. In
October 1993 we testified 32 that the U. S. Census Bureau*s research and
development efforts had been slowed by its changing planning strategy and

that the bureau still faced the difficult task of integrating its Test
Design Recommendation proposals into a detailed implementation plan for
the 1995 census test. We noted that the bureau*s plans to conduct research
and evaluations for such promising proposals as the one- number census, 33
sampling for nonresponse, and defining the content of the census were in a

state of flux. Other important research and planning activities, such as
improving the address list and using new automated techniques to convert
respondent answers to machine- readable format, were behind schedule.
Funding for research and test census preparation in fiscal years 1994 and
1995 was in doubt as evidenced by the budget cuts proposed by the House
Appropriations Committee and the opinions expressed in its report
accompanying the fiscal year 1994 appropriations bill. 34

30 U. S. House of Representatives, Departments of Commerce, Justice, and
State, the Judiciary, and Related Agencies Appropriations Bill, Fiscal
Year 1994, Report 103- 157 (Washington, D. C.: June 24, 1993).

31 U. S. House of Representatives, Making Appropriations for the
Departments of Commerce, Justice, and State, the Judiciary, and Related
Agencies for the Fiscal Year Ending September 30, 1994, H. R. Conference
Report 103- 293 (Washington, D. C.: Oct. 14, 1993).

32 U. S. General Accounting Office, Decennial Census: Test Design
Proposals Are Promising, But Fundamental Reform is Still at Risk, GAO/ T-
GGD- 94- 12 (Washington, D. C.: Oct. 7, 1993).

33 A one- number census combines the features of both the traditional head
count and statistical methods to produce a single population count. 34 U.
S. House of Representatives, Departments of Commerce, Justice, and State,
the Judiciary, and Related Agencies Appropriations Bill, Fiscal Year 1994,
Report 103- 157 (Washington, D. C.: June 24, 1993).

The bureau obligated the entire amount of its fiscal year 1994 funding
received of $18.7 million. Funding originally contained 6 design areas for
2000 Census research and development, the 1995 Census test, and decennial
operational preparation but was later revised to present funds received
and obligated in 13 frameworks of effort as indicated in table 4.

Table 4: 2000 Census Planning and Development Funding for Fiscal Year 1994
(dollars in millions) Framework

number Description Amount

1 Program development and management information $1. 1 2 Content
requirements and public use forms .7 3 Test censuses & dress rehearsal 5.
5 4 Decennial geographic support a 5 Evaluation & development 7. 1 6
Address list compilation .1 7 Precensus day operations & support systems a
8 Stakeholder education and consultation .2 9 Puerto Rico & outlying areas
a 10 Tabulation, publication, & data user services a 11 Automated/
telecommunication support 4. 0 12 Year 2001 and beyond a 13 Cooperation
with the U. S Postal Service a

Total $18. 7

a Activity or amounts were less than $. 1 million. Source: U. S. Census
Bureau.

For fiscal year 1994, the bureau experienced a 36 percent increase in its
funding received of $18.7 million over the $13.7 million for fiscal year
1993. About 44 percent of the fiscal year 1994 funding was obligated for
personnel costs as a result of a 34 percent increase in FTE staff from 164
in fiscal year 1993 to 220 in fiscal year 1994 to work on decennial
planning and

development issues. Services, including consultants, accounted for another
13 percent of obligations with the remaining 43 percent for space,
supplies, travel, and other costs. We noted that six frameworks received
little or no funding and three frameworks accounted for 89 percent of the
fiscal year 1994 funds received and obligated as follows:

Framework 5 - Evaluation and development consumed $7.1 million or 38
percent of funding received and obligated for research and developmental
work to support the 1995 census test. This included

 research on the use of matching keys beyond just a person*s residence
address to develop matching procedures that would allow the bureau to make
use of person- based administrative records files that do not have a
current residential address;

 research on various uses of sampling including technical and policy
issues on conducting the entire census on a sample basis and conducting
only the nonresponse follow- up portion of the census on a sample basis;
and

 race and ethnicity studies including extensive consultation with
stakeholders, focus group testing, and planning of field tests.

Framework 3 - Test census and dress rehearsal consumed $5.5 million or 29
percent of funding received and obligated to increase 1995 Census Test
activities from preliminary studies and planning to the full- scale

preparatory level program. These included such activities as

 completion of questionnaire content determination,

 analysis of a database of population characteristics by geographic area
to make selections of test sites,

 determination of evaluation program objectives for the test, and

 determination of objectives for and design stakeholder consultation.

Framework 11 - Automation/ telecommunication support consumed $4. 0
million or 21 percent of funding received and obligated for automated
systems design and acquisition of data capture technology to upgrade the
1990 Census system (FACT90) to a 2000 Census system (DCS 2000).

Fiscal Year 1995 Funding For fiscal year 1995, the Congress reduced the
President*s Budget request of $48. 6 million for 2000 Census planning and
development to $42.0 million for a reduction of about 14 percent. As a
result of this $6.6 million reduction, the bureau eliminated $9.0 million
for decennial operation

preparation and $. 8 million for 1996 testing while increasing funding for
program development and other areas by $3. 2 million.

In January 1994 we testified 35 that while we were encouraged by the U. S.
Census Bureau*s recent focus on testing specific proposals to modify the
census methodology, we believed that the bureau must aggressively plan for
and carefully implement its research, testing, and evaluation programs.
Further, the results of those efforts must be available to make fully
informed and timely decisions and build needed consensus among key

stakeholders and customers for changes in the 2000 Census. A fiscal year
1995 Senate Appropriations Committee report 36 strongly recommended that
the bureau adopt more cost- effective means of conducting the next census
as the budgetary caps and strict employment ceilings adopted by the
President and the Congress would not accommodate a repeat of the process
used in the 1990 Census.

Fiscal year 1995 funding received was $42. 0 million and the bureau
obligated $40. 9 million against it. The number of frameworks increased to
15 as indicated in table 5.

Table 5: 2000 Census Planning and Development Funding for Fiscal Year 1995
(dollars in millions) Framework

number Description Amount

1 Program development and management $2. 5

information 2 Content requirements and public use forms 1. 7 3 Test
censuses & dress rehearsal 30. 0 4 Decennial geographic products &
services 1. 3 5 Evaluation & development 5. 1 6 Address list compilation a
7 Precensus day operations & support systems a

35 U. S. General Accounting Office, Decennial Census: Promising Proposals,
Some Progress, But Challenges Remain, GAO/ T- GGD- 94- 80 (Washington, D.
C.: Jan. 26, 1994). 36 U. S. Senate, Departments of Commerce, Justice, and
State, the Judiciary, and Related Agencies Appropriation Bill, 1995,
Report 103- 309 (Washington, D. C.: July 14, 1994).

(Continued From Previous Page)

Framework number Description Amount

8 Postcensus day operations a 9 Census marketing, communications, &
partnership .5 10 Puerto Rico & other island territories a 11 Tabulation,
dissemination, & customer services a 12 Automation/ telecommunication
support a 13 Year 2001 & beyond a 14 Cooperation with the U. S. Postal
Service a 15 Follow- on surveys .9

Tot al $42. 0

a Activity or amounts were less than $. 1 million. Source: U. S. Census
Bureau.

For fiscal year 1995, the bureau experienced a 125 percent increase in its
funding received of $42.0 million over the $18.7 million for fiscal year
1994. About 51 percent of the fiscal year 1995 funding was obligated for
personnel costs as a result of a 211 percent increase in FTE staff from
220 in fiscal year 1994 to 685 in fiscal year 1995 to work on decennial
planning and development issues. Services, including consultants,
accounted for about 7 percent of the obligations with the remaining 42
percent for space, supplies, travel, and other costs. We noted that eight
frameworks received little or no funding and Framework 3 accounted for
over 70 percent of fiscal year 1995 funds received and obligated. The main
focus of Framework 3 was conducting the 1995 Census Test, in order to
select by

December 1995 the features to be used for the 2000 Census. According to
census plans and our discussions with officials, the bureau focused on the
following major areas.

 Complete preparation for the 1995 Census Test, conduct the test, and
begin evaluations in order to select the features to be used for the 2000
Census. In addition, the bureau would conduct a full- scale census test in
four district office areas that would be the culmination of the research
and development program.

 Investigate, develop, test, and evaluate components of a continuous
measurement system as a replacement for the 2000 Census sample data
questionnaire.

 Develop, test, and evaluate various matching keys for the automated and
clerical matching and unduplicating 37 systems developed under the
direction of the matching research and specifications working group.

 Conduct activities independent of the research and development program;
these are preparatory activities required to implement the 2000 Census
regardless of the design. This included such activities as planning the
address list update activities as necessary to supplement

the Master Address File (MAF) for use in the 2000 Census and begin initial
planning of the field organization structure for the 2000 Census.

 Recommend the broad scope of content that should be included in the 2000
Census questionnaire based on consulting with both federal and nonfederal
data users, and begin planning for small special purpose tests to
supplement or follow up on the 1995 Census Test.

Fiscal Year 1996 Funding For fiscal year 1996, the Congress reduced the
President*s Budget request of $60. 1 million for 2000 Census planning and
development to $51. 3 million, 38 for a reduction of about 15 percent. As
a result of this $8.8 million reduction, the bureau reduced funding for
field data collection and support systems by $9. 9 million or 43 percent
while increasing funding in other areas.

In October 1995 we testified 39 that the U. S. Census Bureau had decided
to make fundamental changes to the traditional census design such as
shortening census questionnaires, developing an accurate address list, and
sampling households that fail to respond to questionnaires. However, we
noted that successful implementation of these changes would require
aggressive management by the bureau and that the window of opportunity for
the Congress to provide guidance on these changes and applicable funding
was closing.

37 The bureau uses unduplication to refer to the process of detecting
duplicate census responses that contribute to a population overcount.
Causes of duplication include multiple responses for the same address,
college students counted both at school and at home, people with multiple
residences, and military residing outside their home state. 38 $48. 8
million of funding plus $2. 5 million for prior year recoveries and carry-
in. 39 GAO/ T- GGD- 96- 37.

A fiscal year 1996 conference report 40 continued to express concern about
progress related to the next decennial census. It cautioned the bureau
that the cost of the 2000 Census had to be kept in check and only through
early

planning and decision making could costs be controlled. The report further
recognized that fiscal year 1996 was a critical year in planning for the
decennial census, and that numerous decisions will be made and
preparations taken which will have a significant bearing on the overall
cost of conducting the census, as well as the design selected.

The bureau obligated the entire amount of its fiscal year 1996 funding
received of $51.3 million. Beginning with fiscal year 1996, the number of
frameworks was reduced to eight as indicated in table 6 below.

Table 6: 2000 Census Planning and Development Funding for Fiscal Year 1996
(dollars in millions) Framework

number Description Amount

1 Program development and management $8. 2 2 Data content and products 9.
6 3 Field data collection and support systems 13. 3 4 Address list
development 2. 3 5 Automated data processing and 6.8

telecommunications support 6 Testing, evaluation, and dress rehearsal 9. 4
7 Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, and Pacific areas .3 8 Marketing,
communications, and partnerships 1. 4

Tot al $51. 3

Source: U. S. Census Bureau.

For fiscal year 1996, the bureau experienced a 22 percent increase in its
funding received of $51.3 million over the $42.0 million for fiscal year
1995. About 44 percent of the fiscal year 1996 funding was obligated for
personnel costs as a result of a 5 percent decrease in FTE staff from 685
in 40 U. S. House of Representatives, Making Appropriations for the
Departments of

Commerce, Justice, and State, the Judiciary, and Related Agencies for the
Fiscal Year Ending September 30, 1996, H. R. Conference Report 104- 378
(Washington, D. C.: Dec. 1, 1995).

fiscal year 1995 to 653 in fiscal year 1996 to work on decennial planning
and development issues. Services, including consultants, accounted for
about 13 percent of the obligations with the remaining 43 percent for
space, supplies, travel, and other costs. Three frameworks incurred over
60

percent of funding received and obligated for the following.

 Framework 3 - Field data collection and support systems incurred costs
of $13.3 million including $4. 4 million to develop personnel and
administrative systems for field office enumeration; $3. 1 million for
precensus day data collection activities; and $2.0 million for automation
acquisition and support for field offices.

 Framework 2 - Data content and products incurred costs of $9. 6 million
including $4.4 million to develop and produce questionnaires and public
use forms for the census including conduct of a National Content Test;
$2.9 million for race and ethnicity testing of concepts and respondent
understanding and wording of the race and ethnicity questions; and $1. 6
million for continued work with federal and

nonfederal data users in the content determination process to prepare for
the congressional submission by April 1, 1997.

 Framework 6 - Testing, evaluations, and dress rehearsals incurred costs
of $9.4 million including $3. 3 million for an Integrated Coverage
Measurement (ICM) special test; 41 $2. 6 million for research and
development on sampling and sampling methods for the 2000 decennial count;
and $2.1 million for 1995 Census Test coverage and evaluation.

Fiscal Year 1997 Funding For fiscal year 1997, the Congress reduced the
President*s Budget request of $105.9 million for 2000 Census planning and
development to $86.4 million, 42 for a reduction of about 18 percent. As a
result of this $19.5 million reduction, the bureau reduced funding for
marketing, communications, and partnerships by $14.4 million or 76
percent, and field

data collection and support systems by $23.6 million or 53 percent, while
increasing amounts in other areas by $18.5 million. 41 The ICM Special
Test used cognitive questionnaire testing methods to refine the count
interview instrument and to gather data from the 1995 Census Test to
conduct estimation research. 42 $84. 1 million of funding plus $2. 3
million for prior year recoveries and carry- in.

A fiscal year 1996 House Appropriation Committee report 43 expressed
concern that the bureau appeared not to have developed options and
alternative plans to address issues of accuracy and cost. In addition,

sufficient progress had not been made on issues the committee had
highlighted many times* the number of questions on the long- form and
reimbursement from other agencies for inclusion of such questions to
assure that the question is important.

The bureau obligated the entire amount of its fiscal year 1997 budget of
$86.4 million. Planning continued in eight frameworks as indicated in
table 7.

Table 7: 2000 Census Planning and Development Funding for Fiscal Year 1997
(dollars in millions) Framework

number Description Amount

1 Program development and management $5. 4 2 Data, content, and products
12. 3 3 Field data collection and support systems 20. 9 4 Address list
development 2. 5 5 Automated data processing and 20. 2

telecommunications support 6 Testing, evaluation, and dress rehearsal 19.
8 7 Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, and Pacific areas .8 8 Marketing,
communications, and partnerships 4. 5

Tot al $86. 4

Source: U. S. Census Bureau.

For fiscal year 1997, the bureau experienced a 68 percent increase in its
funding received of $86.4 million over the $51.3 million for fiscal year
1996. About 63 percent of the fiscal year 1997 funding was obligated for
personnel costs as a result of a 36 percent increase in FTE staff from 653
in fiscal year 1996 to 891 in fiscal year 1997 to work on decennial
planning and

development issues. Services, including consultants, accounted for about
43 U. S. House of Representatives, Departments of Commerce, Justice, and
State, the Judiciary, and Related Agencies Appropriations Bill, Fiscal
Year 1997, Report 104- 676 (Washington, D. C.: July 16, 1996).

25 percent of the obligations with the remaining 12 percent for space,
supplies, travel, and other costs. The bureau viewed fiscal year 1997 as
pivotal, since this was the year when research and testing activities
culminated into operational activities and marked the end of the planning
and development phase of the 2000 Census. For the fiscal year, four
frameworks incurred about 85 percent of funding received and obligated as
follows.

Framework 3 - Field data collection and support systems incurred $20.9
million for activities under precensus day operations and support systems,
and postcensus day operations. Projects included:

 $4. 1 million for geographic patterns including questionnaire delivery
methodologies by area and corresponding automated control systems;

 $4. 0 million for planning of data collection efforts including
activities for truncation and/ or the use of sampling for nonresponse
follow- up and increased efforts to develop procedures for enumerating
special populations such as the military, maritime, institutional,
migrant, reservation, and those living in other than traditional housing
units;

 $3. 8 million for direction and control by 12 regional offices that
would provide logistical support and direct enumeration efforts by local
census offices; and

 $3. 1 million for planning and developing personnel and administrative
systems to support 2000 Census data collection and processing activities,
such as types of positions, pay rates, personnel and payroll processes,
and systems, space, and security requirements.

Framework 5 - Automation/ telecommunication support incurred $20.2 million
for activities to include evaluating proposals for the acquisition of
automation equipment and related services, funding the development of

prototype systems, and moving toward awarding contracts to implement such
systems for the 2000 Census. Projects included setting up data capture
systems and support to process census questionnaire responses and
telecommunication systems required to provide nationwide toll- free

800 number services to answer respondent questions and to conduct
interviews.

Framework 6 - Testing, evaluation, and dress rehearsal incurred $19.8
million for the following activities:

 $3. 7 million to begin gearing up for the 1998 dress rehearsal in order
to prepare personnel to conduct the census testing efficiently and
effectively; and

 $7. 0 million to conduct activities for ICM special testing and American
Indian Reservation (AIR) test census such as

 questionnaire delivery and mail return check- in operations,

 nonresponse followup,

 data capture operations,

 ICM computer- assisted personal visit interviews,

 computer and clerical matching,

 follow- up and after follow- up matching, and

 evaluation studies.

Framework 2 - Data content and products incurred $12.3 million for
activities related to the development of computer programs and systems for
data tabulation and for the production of paper, machine- readable, and
on- line data products. Projects included:

 $4. 5 million to move from research in fiscal year 1996 to
implementation in fiscal year 1997 of the Data Access and Dissemination
System (DADs), including development of the requirements for Census 2000
tabulations from DADs, and development of computer programs and control
systems that will format the processed Census 2000 data for use

in DADs; and

 $2. 2 million towards development of a redistricting program for Census
2000.

Comments From the Department of

Appendi x II I Commerce Note: GAO comments supplementing those in the
report text appear at the end of this appendix.

See comment 1. See comment 2.

The following are GAO*s comments on the letter dated October 16, 2002,
from the Department of Commerce.

GAO Comments 1. The objectives of our report did not include assessing the
degree of success of the 2000 Census.

2. See *Agency Comments and Our Evaluation* section of this report.

(192008)

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a

GAO United States General Accounting Office

Page i GAO- 03- 40 Census 2000 Planning

Contents

Contents Page ii GAO- 03- 40 Census 2000 Planning

Page 1 GAO- 03- 40 Census 2000 Planning United States General Accounting
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Washington, D. C. 20548 Page 1 GAO- 03- 40 Census 2000 Planning

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Appendix I

Appendix I Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

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Appendix II

Appendix II Analysis of Funding by Fiscal Year for Planning and
Development of the 2000 Census

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Appendix II Analysis of Funding by Fiscal Year for Planning and
Development of the 2000 Census

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Appendix II Analysis of Funding by Fiscal Year for Planning and
Development of the 2000 Census

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Appendix II Analysis of Funding by Fiscal Year for Planning and
Development of the 2000 Census

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Appendix II Analysis of Funding by Fiscal Year for Planning and
Development of the 2000 Census

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Appendix II Analysis of Funding by Fiscal Year for Planning and
Development of the 2000 Census

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Appendix II Analysis of Funding by Fiscal Year for Planning and
Development of the 2000 Census

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Appendix II Analysis of Funding by Fiscal Year for Planning and
Development of the 2000 Census

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Appendix II Analysis of Funding by Fiscal Year for Planning and
Development of the 2000 Census

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Appendix II Analysis of Funding by Fiscal Year for Planning and
Development of the 2000 Census

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Appendix II Analysis of Funding by Fiscal Year for Planning and
Development of the 2000 Census

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Appendix II Analysis of Funding by Fiscal Year for Planning and
Development of the 2000 Census

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Appendix II Analysis of Funding by Fiscal Year for Planning and
Development of the 2000 Census

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Appendix II Analysis of Funding by Fiscal Year for Planning and
Development of the 2000 Census

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Appendix II Analysis of Funding by Fiscal Year for Planning and
Development of the 2000 Census

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Appendix III

Appendix III Comments From the Department of Commerce

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Appendix III Comments From the Department of Commerce

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Appendix III Comments From the Department of Commerce

Page 41 GAO- 03- 40 Census 2000 Planning

Appendix III Comments From the Department of Commerce

Page 42 GAO- 03- 40 Census 2000 Planning

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