Information Generally Not Available on Toy Gun Issues Related to 
Crime, Injuries or Deaths, and Long-Term Impact (30-SEP-03,	 
GAO-03-1135R).							 
                                                                 
Representative Edolphus Towns requested information on several	 
issues related to the use of toy guns. Specifically, he asked	 
that GAO (1) examine crime statistics showing the prevalence of  
crimes that involved toy guns in some capacity; (2) gather any	 
available information on incidents involving toy guns that have  
resulted in injuries or deaths, whether or not related to	 
criminal activity; and (3) determine from available literature	 
whether there are any studies examining the long-term impacts	 
that can be attributed to toy gun play by children.		 
-------------------------Indexing Terms------------------------- 
REPORTNUM:   GAO-03-1135R					        
    ACCNO:   A08625						        
  TITLE:     Information Generally Not Available on Toy Gun Issues    
Related to Crime, Injuries or Deaths, and Long-Term Impact	 
     DATE:   09/30/2003 
  SUBJECT:   Accidents						 
	     Children						 
	     Crimes or offenses 				 
	     Firearms						 
	     Health hazards					 
	     Statistical data					 
	     Data collection					 

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GAO-03-1135R

United States General Accounting Office Washington, DC 20548

September 30, 2003

The Honorable Edolphus Towns House of Representatives

Subject: Information Generally Not Available on Toy Gun Issues Related to
Crime, Injuries or Deaths, and Long-Term Impact

Dear Mr. Towns:

This report responds to your request that we provide you with information
on several issues related to the use of toy guns. Specifically, you asked
that we (1) examine crime statistics showing the prevalence of crimes that
involved toy guns in some capacity; (2) gather any available information
on incidents involving toy guns that have resulted in injuries or deaths,
whether or not related to criminal activity; and (3) determine from
available literature whether there are any studies examining the long-term
impacts that can be attributed to toy gun play by children.

As agreed with your office, we focused our study on imitation or
look-alike toy guns and excluded toy guns that fire projectiles, for
example, BB guns, paintball guns, and pellet guns. To obtain relevant
information, we conducted an extensive literature search using the
Internet and other electronic resources to identify applicable statistics,
reports, studies, articles, or other publications. In addition, we
contacted federal officials at various agencies, including the Department
of Justice's Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS), the Department of Health
and Human Services' Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), and
the Consumer Product Safety Commission (CPSC). Furthermore, we interviewed
university researchers or academicians and contacted the counsel for the
Toy Industry Association. We performed our work from May to August 2003 in
accordance with generally accepted government auditing standards.
Enclosure I presents more details on our objectives, scope, and
methodology.

Results in Brief

Our study disclosed that scant data exist on the incidence of crimes,
injuries, or deaths involving toy guns and on the long-term effects that
childhood play with toy guns may have on individuals. Available data on
crimes involving toy guns are dated and insufficient for providing a
national perspective. Also, databases that collect information from
hospital emergency rooms and other sources regarding product-related
injuries and deaths generally are not designed to capture information
about incidents involving toy guns. Thus, the relatively few cases of such
incidents that were recorded in these databases probably do not represent
an accurate or

comprehensive reporting. Finally, our literature search found no
publications or studies specifically addressing the long-term effects of
childhood play with toy guns.

Crimes Involving the Use of Toy Guns

In response to our inquiries, officials at three of the Department of
Justice components we contacted-the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms
and Explosives; the National Institute of Justice; and the Federal Bureau
of Investigation-said they had no information about crimes involving the
use of toy guns. Generally, the only data we found regarding the use of
toy guns in crimes are presented in a June 1990 report-Toy Guns:
Involvement in Crime & Encounters With Police-prepared by the Police
Executive Research Forum (PERF), under a cooperative agreement with BJS.1
In response to our inquiry, in June 2003, BJS informed us the agency has
no current plans to sponsor or undertake a follow-up study to update the
1990 report.

In conducting its study, PERF surveyed 699 state and local law enforcement
agencies and received 458 usable responses (a response rate of 66
percent). PERF's report does not include information on whether the
nonrespondents differed in significant ways from the respondents. Without
such information, it is not possible to determine if the lack of response
from 34 percent of the agencies distorted the findings.

Among other questions, the survey solicited information on the number of
robberies and assaults that involved the use of toy guns during the period
January 1, 1985, to September 1, 1989. According to PERF, police
department reporting systems typically are not coded to identify the
involvement of imitation or toy guns in crimes. As a result, most
responding agencies provided information from either a manual records
check or a solicitation of information from officers. Relying on officers'
memories may have resulted in either an under- or over-reporting of
incidents involving toy guns. For the period January 1, 1985, to September
1, 1989,

o  	148 law enforcement agencies (32 percent of the 458 usable responses)
reported a total of 2,796 robberies committed with the use of toy guns and

o  	121 law enforcement agencies (26 percent of the 458 usable responses)
reported a total of 3,104 assaults committed with the use of toy guns.

As a collateral issue, PERF also reported that-for the period January 1,
1985, to September 1, 1989-law enforcement agencies seized a total of
10,065 toy guns. According to PERF, this total does not include guns that
were stolen property. Rather, the total consists only of those toy guns
that were directly or indirectly involved in an incident-such as robbery,
assault, domestic disturbance, suspicious person, etc.-where the police
took some form of action.

1PERF is a national membership organization of police executives from the
largest city, county, and state law enforcement agencies.

The PERF researchers concluded that insufficient data were available to
clearly determine whether the use of toy guns to commit crimes was a
serious problem, particularly in comparison to all crimes of violence and
police-involved shootings throughout the nation. As noted above, two
factors-response rate issues and concerns about the reliability of
information based to some extent on officers' recall of incidents-result
in reservations about the findings. Enclosure II presents more details
about PERF's report.

Injuries or Deaths Involving Toy Guns

One way an injury or death could occur is for a police officer to mistake
a toy gun for a real firearm. As part of PERF's survey, researchers asked
law enforcement agencies to report the number of incidents where officers
had used actual force (deadly or less than deadly) based on the belief
that a toy gun was real. For the study period (Jan. 1, 1985, to Sep. 1,
1989), 31 law enforcement agencies (7 percent of the 458 usable responses)
reported a total of 105 applicable incidents where officers had used
actual force, either deadly or less than deadly (see table 3 in enc. II).
PERF's report did not specify how many of the 105 incidents resulted in
injuries nor how many resulted in deaths.

To further determine the availability of information on incidents
involving toy guns that have resulted in injuries or deaths, whether or
not related to criminal activity, we contacted two federal agencies-CPSC
and CDC-that have databases with information on health and/or safety
issues. At our request, CPSC officials reviewed the agency's three major
databases that provide information on product-related hazards, and the
officials reported the following to us:

o  	National Electronic Injury Surveillance System. This system collects
information and provides national estimates on the number of victims
treated in hospital emergency rooms for product-related injuries. The
entire system includes 98 hospitals reporting almost 700,000 cases each
year. For the period January 2000 to July 2003, the database showed 301
incidents of injuries that resulted from many hazard patterns involving
toy guns, including children swinging or throwing toy guns. According to
CPSC, the 301 incidents encompass the broad category of toy guns-not just
the limited category of replica guns. CPSC's review of about 100 of these
incidents that involved victims aged 10 years or older disclosed no injury
incidents in which police officers mistook toy guns for real firearms.

o  	Death Certificate System. This database contains records of death
certificates for product-related deaths from each of the 50 states. The
database excludes data on firearm-related deaths but may record deaths
involving toy guns not caused by a firearm. For the most recent 10 years
(1993 through 2002), the database showed no cases of deaths involving toy
guns or situations where police officers mistook toy guns for real
firearms.

o  	Incident Data Base. This data file contains records of cases received
from news clips, medical examiner reports, consumer complaints, and
reports from other sources. For the most recent 10 years (1993 through
2002), the data file showed four cases of individuals being fatally shot
by police officers who mistook toy guns for real firearms.

CPSC officials told us that these statistics on police shootings involving
toy guns likely represent an undercounting of such incidents. The
officials explained that CPSC would not generally collect data on police
shootings because the agency's focus is on consumer product issues rather
than firearms.

CDC is a data contributor and has inquiry access to CPSC's National
Electronic Injury Surveillance System. At our request, CDC officials
reviewed the system's database. For the 1 year reviewed (2001), the
officials reported identifying 66 incidents involving toy guns. Of these
66 incidents, the majority (62) involved individuals 0 to 19 years of age,
and the remaining 4 incidents occurred among the over-19 age group.

According to the CDC officials, of the 62 incidents among individuals 0 to
19 years old, 57 incidents involved unintentional injuries, such as
choking on a toy gun part or being hit with toy gun or projectile part.
The other 5 incidents apparently were reported to the police as being
assaults and involved children hitting other children with a toy gun while
fighting or engaging in rough play. CDC officials described these 5
incidents as follows:

o  A 13-year old child was hit on head with a plastic gun.

o  A 12-year old female was hit on the elbow by a toy gun.

o  A 12-year old male was injured in a fight involving a toy gun.

o  A 7-year old was poked in the right eye with a plastic gun.

o  An individual was struck on the head by a toy gun.

Also, CDC officials told us that the agency's National Violent Death
Reporting System (NVDRS)-being designed to collect information on all
violent deaths, including those involving toy guns-was not yet
operational. The officials referred us to Harvard University's National
Violent Injury Statistics System (NVISS), which is a pilot program for
CDC's NVDRS and encompasses 12 sites nationwide.2 The codirector of the
pilot program told us that the NVISS database contained information for 2
years (2000 and 2001) but does not include a variable to facilitate an
electronic search for injuries or deaths involving toy gun incidents.
Nevertheless, the co-director responded to our questions based on her
knowledge of the database and her review of the more recent year's (2001)
data for 7 sites-Connecticut, Maine, Wisconsin, Utah, San Francisco,
Miami-Dade County, and Allegany County. For the 2001 data, the co-director
reported finding no deaths involving toy guns. In addition, the

2The 12 sites consist of 6 states (Connecticut, Kentucky, Maine, Maryland,
Wisconsin, and Utah);
5 metropolitan areas or counties-Atlanta (Ga.), Detroit (Mich.),
Miami-Dade County (Fla.), Allegany County (Pa.), and
San Francisco (Cal.)-and 1 pilot (conducted by the University of
Pennsylvania) collectively covering three metropolitan
areas-Bethlehem (Pa.), Youngstown (Ohio), and Iowa City (Iowa).

co-director did not recall seeing any toy gun-related deaths in the first
year's (2000) data.

Our literature search found that, in 1987, the American Academy of
Pediatrics' Committee on Accident and Poison Prevention issued a policy
statement, which said that, "The main hazard presented by nonprojectile
toy guns is that children who play with them may inadvertently be drawn to
playing with real weapons which they mistake for toys."3 The policy
statement recommended that pediatricians counsel parents concerning the
hazards of having toy guns in the house.

Long-Term Effects of Childhood Play with Toy Guns

Our literature search of social science, scientific, educational, crime
and justice, and other journals and publications disclosed no
authoritative study on the possible long-term effects on individuals of
childhood play with toy guns. Generally, the literature discussed numerous
possible causes of aggressive behavior, including exposure to violence in
video games and television, and did not focus specifically on childhood
play with toy guns.

One exception we found was a 1992 Brandeis University study, entitled "The
Relation Between Toy Gun Play and Children's Aggressive Behavior."4 The
study was based on a small number of preschoolers in one daycare center
and found limited evidence that toy gun play was associated with increased
real aggression and with decreased pretend aggression in free-play
settings. However, due to the small number of children involved, all from
one location and in one setting, the results are not generalizable to
other children. Further, the analytical method used may have overstated
the significance of the association between toy gun play and aggression.
In addition, the study did not examine whether longer-term associations
between toy gun play and future aggression are likely.

Furthermore, we contacted the senior scientific editor of a 2001
report-Youth Violence: A Report of the Surgeon General-to discuss the
extent, if any, that the study addressed or considered the long-term
impacts attributable to toy gun play by children.5 This individual said
that the Surgeon General's study focused on violence involving real
firearms and did not consider toy gun issues. He expressed unawareness of
any research on the long-term effects of childhood play with toy guns.

Agency Comments

We provided a draft of this report for comment to the Department of
Justice, the Department of Health and Human Services, and CPSC. During the
period September 17-25, 2003, we received written or oral comments from
these agencies. The

3American Academy of Pediatrics, "Injuries Related to `Toy' Firearms"
(RE7085), Pediatrics, Volume 79, Number 3 (Mar. 1987).
4Malcolm W. Watson and Ying Peng, Brandeis University, "The Relation
Between Toy Gun Play and Children's Aggressive
Behavior," Early Education and Development, Volume 3, Number 4 (Oct.
1992).
5Youth Violence: A Report of the Surgeon General, U.S. Public Health
Service (Washington, D.C.: Jan. 2001).

comments indicated that the draft accurately presented the information
that we had obtained from the respective agency. Also, the Department of
Health and Human Services (including CDC) and CPSC provided technical
clarifications, which we incorporated in this report where appropriate.

                                   _ _ _ _ _

As agreed with your office, unless you publicly announce its contents
earlier, we plan
no further distribution of this report until 30 days after its issue date.
At that time, we
will provide copies to the Attorney General, the Secretary of Health and
Human
Services, and the Executive Director of CPSC. We will also make copies
available to
others on request.

If you have any questions about this report, please contact me at (202)
512-8777 or
Assistant Director, Danny R. Burton, at (214) 777-5600. Other key
contributors to this
report were Fredrick D. Berry, Ann H. Finley, SaraAnn W. Moessbauer,
Julia A. Rachiele, Miguel A. Salas, and Susan B. Wallace.

Sincerely yours,

Laurie E. Ekstrand
Director, Homeland Security and Justice Issues

Enclosures-2

Enclosure I

                       Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Objectives

Representative Edolphus Towns asked us to (1) examine crime statistics
showing the prevalence of crimes that involved toy guns in some capacity;
(2) gather any available information on incidents involving toy guns that
have resulted in injuries or deaths, whether or not related to criminal
activity; and (3) determine from available literature whether there are
any studies examining the long-term impacts that can be attributed to toy
gun play by children.

Scope and Methodology

As agreed with the requester's office, we focused our study on imitation
or look-alike toy guns and excluded toy guns that fire projectiles, for
example, BB guns, paintball guns, and pellet guns. To obtain relevant
information, we conducted a literature search using the Internet and other
electronic resources to identify applicable statistics, reports, studies,
articles, or other publications. Specifically, we used keywords/key
phrases to search the following three major sources:

o  	Dialog. Dialog provides access to over 800 databases covering
scientific and technical literature, trade journals, and newswires. Our
search covered the period January 1, 1990, to July 10, 2003.

o  	Nexis. Nexis provides access to news stories in major U.S. newspapers.
Our search covered the period January 1, 2000, to July 11, 2003.

o  	Nexis' Statistical Universe. This source provides access to three data
files-(1) the American Statistics Index, which covers statistical
publications of the U.S. government; (2) the Statistical Reference Index,
which covers statistical publications from sources other than the U.S.
government; and (3) the Index to International Statistics, which covers
international publications. Our search of these three data files covered
the periods beginning in 1973, 1980, and 1983, respectively, to July 31,
2003.

In addition to the literature search, we contacted various federal
agencies, university researchers or academicians, and a representative of
the Toy Industry Association (see table 1).

Enclosure I

Table 1: Federal Agencies, Universities, and the Trade Association GAO
Contacted

Source: GAO.

aOur contacts with universities were based on suggestions made by federal
agency officials and the results of our literature search.

bThis university official served as the senior scientific editor for the
Surgeon General's 2001 report on youth violence.

Crime Statistics Involving Toy Guns

To determine the availability of statistics regarding the prevalence of
crimes that involved toy guns in some capacity, we contacted the following
Department of Justice components:

o  	Bureau of Justice Statistics (BJS). We followed-up on the results of
our literature search, which identified a June 1990 report (Toy Guns:
Involvement in Crime & Encounters with Police) prepared by the Police
Executive Research Forum, under a cooperative agreement with BJS (see enc.
II).

Enclosure I

o  	National Institute of Justice (NIJ). NIJ is the research, development,
and evaluation agency of the Department of Justice.

o  	Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI). We inquired whether the Uniform
Crime Reporting Program collected any information involving toy gun
incidents.

o  	Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF). We inquired
whether the agency's "Youth Crime Interdiction Initiative" collected any
information involving toy gun incidents.

Toy Gun Incidents Resulting in Injuries or Deaths

To determine the availability of information on incidents involving toy
guns that have resulted in injuries or deaths, whether or not related to
criminal activity, we contacted two federal agencies-the Consumer Product
Safety Commission (CPSC) and the Department of Health and Human Services'
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). These agencies collect
data on health and safety issues in several databases.

At our request, CPSC officials reviewed the agency's three major
surveillance databases that provide information on product-related
hazards:

o  	National Electronic Injury Surveillance System. This system collects
information and provides national estimates on the number of victims
treated in hospital emergency rooms for product-related injuries. From
this database, CPSC officials reviewed cases from January 2000 to July
2003.

o  	Death Certificate System. This database contains records of death
certificates for product-related deaths from each of the 50 states. CPSC
officials reviewed cases reported during the previous 10 years (1993
through 2002).

o  	Incident Data Base. This data file contains records of cases received
from news clips, medical examiner reports, consumer complaints, and
reports from other sources. CPSC officials reviewed cases reported during
the previous 10 years (1993 through 2002).

Regarding these databases, CPSC officials noted that statistics on police
shootings involving toy guns likely represent an undercounting of such
incidents. The officials explained that CPSC would not generally collect
data on police shootings because the agency's focus is on consumer product
issues rather than firearms.

We contacted CDC to inquire whether its National Violent Death Reporting
System (NVDRS) had relevant information. Officials at CDC's National
Center for Injury

Enclosure I

Prevention and Control told us that the system was not yet operational but
eventually would collect national information on all violent deaths,
including firearms-related deaths and those involving toy guns.

The CDC officials referred us to Harvard University's National Violent
Injury Statistics System (NVISS), which is a pilot program for CDC's NVDRS
and

6

encompasses 12 sites nationwide. The co-director of the pilot program told
us that the NVISS database contains information for 2 years (2000 and
2001) but does not include a variable to facilitate an electronic search
for injuries or deaths involving toy gun incidents. Nevertheless, the
co-director responded to our questions based on her knowledge of the
database and her review of data for 7 sites for 2001.7

Long-Term Impacts Attributed to Toy Gun Play by Children

As previously indicated, to determine the availability of studies
examining the long-term impacts that can be attributed to toy gun play by
children, we conducted a literature search and contacted various federal
agencies, university researchers or academicians, and a representative of
the Toy Industry Association. We focused our analysis on the following
potentially relevant study that we identified:

o  	Watson, Malcolm W., and Ying Peng. Brandeis University. "The Relation
Between Toy Gun Play and Children's Aggressive Behavior." Early Education
and Development (Volume 3, Number 4, Oct. 1992): 370-389.

Two of our social scientists examined the study to assess the adequacy of
samples and measures employed, the reasonableness and rigor of the
statistical techniques used to analyze them, and the validity of the
results and conclusions.

Also, we contacted the senior scientific editor of a 2001 report-Youth
Violence: A Report of the Surgeon General-to discuss the extent, if any,
that the study addressed or considered the long-term impacts attributable
to toy gun play by children.8

6The 12 NVISS sites consist of 6 states (Connecticut, Kentucky, Maine,
Maryland, Wisconsin, and Utah); 5 metropolitan areas or
counties-Atlanta (Ga.), Detroit (Mich.), Miami-Dade County (Fla.),
Allegany County (Pa.), and San Francisco (Cal.)-and
1 pilot (conducted by the University of Pennsylvania) collectively
covering three metropolitan areas-Bethlehem (Pa.),
Youngstown (Ohio), and Iowa City (Iowa).
7The co-director's review covered the following 7 sites: Connecticut,
Maine, Wisconsin, Utah, San Francisco, Miami-Dade
County, and Allegany County.
8Youth Violence: A Report of the Surgeon General, U.S. Public Health
Service (Washington, D.C.: Jan. 2001). The report is
available on the Surgeon General's Web site at
http://surgeongeneral.gov/library/youthviolence/.

Enclosure II

           June 1990 Report on Toy Guns, Crime, and Police Encounters

Public Law 100-615 (Nov. 5, 1988) required that toy guns have a "blaze
orange plug inserted in the barrel" to minimize the probability of such
guns being mistaken for real firearms. Also, the federal legislation
required that the Department of Justice's Bureau of Justice Statistics
(BJS) conduct a study of the criminal misuse of toy guns, including
studying police reports of such incidents. Effective June 1, 1989, BJS
awarded a cooperative agreement to the Police Executive Research Forum
(PERF) to conduct the study. 9 In June 1990, PERF reported on the results
of its study-Toy Guns: Involvement In Crime & Encounters With Police.

Regarding the overall significance of toy guns and crime, PERF reported
that there is no clear answer to the question, "How serious is the
problem?" The report noted that:

o  "The response is a value judgment based upon one's ideology and
experiences."

o  	"In comparison to all crimes of violence and police-involved shootings
throughout the United States, the proportion of cases involving imitation
guns is small. The nagging element of the `toy gun' problem is that many
of the incidents seem particularly tragic-a child is involved, a mentally
disturbed person does not recognize the gravity of his/her actions, or a
person simply used poor judgment."

In response to our inquiry, in June 2003, BJS officials told us that BJS
had no current plans to sponsor or undertake a follow-up study to update
the information.

Scope and Methodology of PERF's Study

Initially, to ascertain issues and trends, PERF conducted a Lexis/Nexis
computer search for news stories reporting any imitation gun incidents.
PERF reported that its research methods also included developing and
sending a survey instrument to 699 agencies in the study population-that
is, all municipal police and consolidated police departments serving
populations of 50,000 or more, all sheriff's departments with 100 or more
sworn employees, and all primary state police agencies.10 According to
PERF, the usable response rate was 65.5 percent (458 responses). The PERF
report does not include information on whether the nonrespondents differed
in significant ways from the respondents. Without such information, it is
not possible to determine if the lack of response from 34 percent of the
agencies distorted the findings.

9PERF is a national membership organization of police executives from the
largest city, county, and state law enforcement
agencies. Incorporated in 1977, PERF's objectives are to improve policing
and advance professionalism through research and
involvement in public policy debate.
10Also, according to PERF, site visits were made to 27 agencies, which
were selected based partly on news reports and/or self-

reports indicating experiences with imitation gun incidents.

Enclosure II

Questions in the survey instrument solicited information on (1) robberies
and assaults that involved the use of imitation guns and (2) experiences
of officers using deadly force and less than deadly force against
individuals with imitation guns.11

Data Limitations Acknowledged by PERF

In its report, PERF acknowledged that quantitative data were difficult to
obtain. Specifically, PERF reported that:

"The questions for this survey were extraordinarily difficult for the law
enforcement agencies to answer simply because police departments typically
do not maintain data stratified by the identifying character of `toy gun'
(or similar notation). As a result, most agencies resorted to some form of
manual records check and/or solicitation of information from officers."

"The data presented in this report were not easily generated by the
responding departments. Many police agencies conducted manual searches of
their incident reports, others physically searched property room records,
while others went through the laborious process of surveying their
officers and then developing responses to our questions. Thus, while the
data in this report may not be as robust as we initially hoped, it
represents the most comprehensive information available on the subject."

Nonetheless, relying solely on officers' memories in some instances may
have resulted in either an under- or over-reporting of incidents involving
imitation guns.

Study Results Reported by PERF

As mentioned previously, questions in PERF's survey instrument solicited
information on (1) robberies and assaults that involved use of imitation
guns and (2) experiences of officers using deadly force and less than
deadly force against individuals with imitation guns.

Robberies and Assaults Using Toy Guns

PERF's report presented data for 4-2/3 years-1985 through 8 months of
1989-on the numbers of robberies and assaults involving toy guns. As table
2 shows, the reported number of robberies totaled 2,796 during this
period.

11PERF reported results separately for three categories of imitation
guns-toy guns (intended for playing), pneumatic guns (such as BB and
pellet guns), and replica guns (inoperable reproductions of actual
weapons). The data presented in tables 2 and 3 in

this enclosure cover toy guns only.

Enclosure II

Table 2: Number of Robberies and Assaults Committed Involving Toy Guns
(Jan. 1, 1985 to Sep. 1, 1989)

                   Number of robberies and assaults committed involving toy
                   guns                           
    Calendar year                      Robberiesa                   Assaultsb 
        1985                                  453                         635 
        1986                                  482                         615 
        1987                                  665                         601 
        1988                                  753                         686 
1989 (8 months)                            443                         567 
        Total                               2,796                       3,104 

Source: Police Executive Research Forum, Toy Guns: Involvement in Crime &
Encounters with Police, June 1990, pp. 29 and

32.

aBased on 148 police agencies reporting robberies known to have been
committed with a toy gun.

bBased on 121police agencies reporting assaults known to have been
committed with a toy gun.

Based partly on these data, PERF reported that survey results "show that
robberies by imitation guns are occurring on a daily basis in the United
States ...". Also, PERF reported that:

"Because of poor record keeping on imitation gun robberies, the fact that
the estimates of investigators are experiential rather than empirical, and
the inherent methodological differences between the UCR [Uniform Crime
Reporting Program] and this study, the authors feel that estimating the
number of imitation gun robberies from those reported in the UCR would
have limited value."

Also, table 2 shows that the reported number of assaults committed with
toy guns totaled 3,104 during the period. PERF reported that:

"While it is conceivable that a person could be physically assailed with
an imitation gun, the more likely crime is the `simple assault' where a
person is threatened and in fear of injury. ... No meaningful comparisons
can be made between these findings and the Uniform Crime Report assault
data since the UCR statistics reflect only aggravated assaults."

Use of Force Incidents Involving Toy Guns

As part of PERF's survey, researchers also asked law enforcement agencies
to report the number of incidents where officers had warned, threatened,
or actually used force in a confrontation where an imitation gun had been
mistaken for a real gun. As table 3 shows, for the period January 1, 1985,
to September 1, 1989:

o  	The number of incidents totaled 385 where an officer warned or
threatened the use of force based on the belief that a toy gun was real.

o  	The number of incidents totaled 105 where an officer used actual force
based on the belief that a toy gun was real.

Enclosure II

Table 3: Number of Incidents Where Police Officers Warned of Using or
Actually Used Force Based on the Belief That a Toy Gun Was Real (Jan. 1,
1985 to Sep. 1, 1989)

                    Number of incidents where an Number of incidents where an 
                    officer warned or threatened officer used actual force    
                   the use of force based on the (deadly or less than deadly) 
                       belief that a toy gun was based on the belief that a   
     Calendar year                         reala toy gun was realb            
              1985                            55                            6 
              1986                            61                            7 
              1987                            72                           45 
              1988                           106                           31 
1989 (8 months)                            91                           16 
             Total                           385                          105 

Source: Police Executive Research Forum, Toy Guns: Involvement in Crime &
Encounters with Police, June 1990, pp. 34 and

35.

aBased on 82 agencies reporting incidents known to have been committed
with a toy gun.

bBased on 31 agencies reporting incidents known to have been committed
with a toy gun.

Regarding the 105 incidents involving actual use of force, PERF reported
that "... it is probable that the data are more accurate since internal
investigations typically follow the use of force."

(440210)
*** End of document. ***