Tax Administration: Status of IRS' Efforts to Develop Measures of
Voluntary Compliance (18-JUN-01, GAO-01-535).			 
								 
The U.S. tax system is based on voluntary reporting--taxpayers	 
self-report their liabilities on the returns they file. The	 
Internal Revenue Service (IRS) reviews all tax returns after they
are filed to ensure compliance with tax laws governing this	 
voluntary system. In spite of IRS' efforts to enforce compliance,
each year billions of dollars in taxes owed are not voluntarily  
reported and paid, which could result in reduced revenue to fund 
federal programs, higher tax rates, or both. There are three	 
types of voluntary compliance measures: filing compliance, which 
measures the percent of taxpayers who file returns in a timely	 
manner; payment compliance, which measures the percent of tax	 
payments that are paid in a timely manner; and reporting	 
compliance, which measures the percent of actual tax liability	 
that is reported accurately on returns. This report reviews the  
status of IRS' plans to measure voluntary reporting compliance as
well as six other federal programs which currently measure	 
voluntary compliance. GAO found that IRS has taken steps to	 
develop an approach for measuring voluntary compliance. It has	 
established objectives and guiding principles for developing this
measure as well as developed database software to collect and	 
analyze data. As of March 2001, IRS' preliminary draft plan	 
included four alternatives related to measuring voluntary	 
reporting compliance. Regarding the six programs reviewed, GAO	 
found that each of the six programs measure compliance by	 
gathering different types and amounts of information from a	 
random sample of clients. Sample sizes range from about 1,400 to 
over 500,000 annually. In each program except for one, clients	 
are randomly selected and interviewed in person.		 
-------------------------Indexing Terms------------------------- 
REPORTNUM:   GAO-01-535 					        
    ACCNO:   A01074						        
  TITLE:     Tax Administration: Status of IRS' Efforts to Develop    
             Measures of Voluntary Compliance                                 
     DATE:   06/18/2001 
  SUBJECT:   Performance measures				 
	     Reporting requirements				 
	     Tax returns					 
	     Voluntary compliance				 
	     Customs Cargo Compliance Measurement		 
	     Program						 
								 
	     Food Stamp Program 				 
	     INS Inspections Traveler Examination		 
	     Program						 
								 
	     IRS Customer Feedback System			 
	     IRS Examination Operational Automated		 
	     Data Base						 
								 
	     IRS Report Generating System			 
	     IRS Taxpayer Compliance Measurement		 
	     Program						 
								 
	     Medicare Program					 
	     Old Age Survivors and Disability			 
	     Insurance Program					 
								 
	     Supplemental Security Income Program		 

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GAO-01-535
     
Report to Congressional Committees

United States General Accounting Office

GAO

June 2001 TAX ADMINISTRATION

Status of IRS? Efforts to Develop Measures of Voluntary Compliance

GAO- 01- 535

Page i GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance Letter 1

Results in Brief 3 Background 4 IRS Has Not Finalized Its Plans on How It
Will Measure Voluntary

Reporting Compliance 5 How Other Programs Measure Compliance 9 Agency
Comments 11

Appendix I Objectives, Scope, and Methodology 13

Appendix II TCMP Studies 15

Appendix III Summary of GAO Assignments Related to Measuring Voluntary
Compliance 16

Appendix IV How Compliance Is Measured for Six Programs 17

Appendix V Comments From the Internal Revenue Service 24

Tables

Table 1: Objectives and Guiding Principles for the NRP Program 6 Table 2:
Compliance Review Characteristics for Six Federal

Programs 10 Table 3: Agencies Contacted and Programs Administered 14 Table
4: Types of TCMP Surveys by Return Type and Tax Year 15 Contents

Page ii GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance Abbreviations

CERT Comprehensive Error Rate Testing CMP Compliance Measurement Program
HCFA Health Care Financing Administration GPRA Government Performance and
Results Act INS Immigration and Naturalization Service IRS Internal Revenue
Service INTEX Inspections? Traveler Examinations NRP National Research
Program OASDI Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance SSA Social
Security Administration SSI Supplemental Security Income TCMP Taxpayer
Compliance Measurement Program

Page 1 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

June 18, 2001 The Honorable Max Baucus, Chairman The Honorable Charles E.
Grassley Ranking Minority Member Committee on Finance United States Senate

The Honorable William M. Thomas, Chairman The Honorable Charles B. Rangel
Ranking Minority Member Committee on Ways and Means House of Representatives

The U. S. tax system is based on voluntary reporting- taxpayers self- report
their liabilities on the returns they file. The Internal Revenue Service
(IRS) reviews all tax returns after they are filed to ensure compliance with
the tax laws governing this voluntary system. These reviews include the math
error program, matching of information returns to tax returns and
operational audits. Operational audits are targeted on returns where IRS
suspects noncompliance, often based on a computerized screening of returns
that looks for indicators of noncompliance. 1

In spite of IRS? efforts to enforce compliance, each year billions of
dollars in taxes owed are not voluntarily reported and paid, which could
result in reduced revenue to fund federal programs, higher tax rates, or
both. In order to understand the overall extent of noncompliance and the
effectiveness of its compliance assurance programs, IRS has periodically
measured voluntary compliance. There are three types of voluntary compliance
measures: filing compliance, which measures the percent of taxpayers who
file returns in a timely manner; payment compliance, which measures the
percent of tax payments that are paid in a timely manner; and reporting
compliance, which measures the percent of actual tax liability that is
reported accurately on returns. This report reviews reporting compliance.

1 Math error checks are electronic reviews of a tax return that identify
clerical or mathematical errors, including incorrect Social Security
numbers. Information return matching compares information on income provided
by payers with information reported by taxpayers on their return. Audits are
examinations of taxpayers? returns in which IRS requests additional
documentation to verify what is on the return.

United States General Accounting Office Washington, DC 20548

Page 2 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

IRS? past estimates of reporting compliance were based on audits conducted
on random samples of taxpayers that were then statistically projected to the
entire population of taxpayers. Unlike operational audits, done to help
ensure compliance and targeted on suspected noncompliance, random audits are
done to measure compliance and are conducted on a sample of returns selected
without regard to suspected noncompliance.

IRS does not have a current measure of voluntary reporting compliance. The
last time IRS measured voluntary reporting compliance was for tax year 1988
returns. IRS planned to measure voluntary reporting compliance for tax year
1994, but canceled the effort because of criticism that the project was too
costly and random audits were intrusive and burdensome on compliant
taxpayers. However, the Commissioner of Internal Revenue has said that a
current measure of voluntary compliance is needed to assess how well IRS is
accomplishing its mission.

In light of the controversy surrounding IRS? last effort to measure
voluntary reporting compliance by randomly auditing taxpayers, we initiated
this review to determine the status of IRS? current efforts. In addition, we
looked at how selected programs in other federal agencies use random
sampling to measure compliance with the rules and regulations governing
their programs. We undertook this review on our own initiative and, as
agreed, are addressing it to you because of your interest in IRS?
operations.

To determine the status of IRS? plans to measure voluntary reporting
compliance, we reviewed available planning documents and discussed the plans
with IRS officials. To obtain information on how others measure compliance,
we identified six large programs in five other agencies that used random
samples to gauge compliance. We then contacted and interviewed officials in
the five federal agencies responsible for the six programs and reviewed
available documentation. The six programs and associated agencies were the
(1) Health Care Financing Administration?s (HCFA) Medicare Program; (2)
Department of Agriculture?s Food Stamp Program; (3) Social Security
Administration?s (SSA) Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI)
Program; (4) SSA?s Supplemental Security Income (SSI) Program; (5) U. S.
Customs Service?s Compliance Measurement Program (CMP); and (6) Immigration
and Naturalization Service?s (INS) Inspections? Traveler Examinations
(INTEX) pilot program. We did not attempt to assess the effectiveness of the
agencies? random sampling programs. In appendix I, we discuss our
objectives, scope, and methodology in detail.

Page 3 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

We did our audit work from May 2000 through March 2001 in accordance with
generally accepted government auditing standards.

In May 2000, IRS established the National Research Program (NRP) Office to
develop an approach for measuring voluntary compliance. While IRS has not
finalized plans for such a measure, the program staff has established study
objectives and developed a set of guiding principles that are to be adhered
to when conducting the study. The study objectives consist of gathering data
to measure voluntary compliance and to design and enhance operating programs
and services. The guiding principles for the study are to limit undue burden
on taxpayers; seek design input from external stakeholders, including
Congress and Department of the Treasury officials; and ensure that the data
meet operational needs.

As of March 2001, IRS had a preliminary draft of a business plan for
measuring voluntary compliance. Included in the plan are four alternatives
related to measuring voluntary reporting compliance, including two that
involve auditing random samples of returns; one that uses operational data;
and one in which voluntary reporting compliance is not measured. Also, IRS
was developing database software that is to interface with existing systems
to collect and analyze data. IRS intends to conduct a comprehensive test of
all the software because these systems are a key component of the program.

Each of the six programs we looked at measures compliance by gathering
different types and amounts of information from a random sample of clients.
Sample sizes range from about 1,400 to over 500,000 annually. In each
program except Medicare, clients are randomly selected and interviewed in
person. For the Medicare program, claims are sampled from providers of
services, such as doctors and vendors providing medical equipment.
Generally, Medicare officials conducting the reviews communicate with
providers through correspondence or telephone. Officials from each agency
told us that the reviews are necessary to determine the agency?s progress in
meeting its performance goals and to help managers identify areas where
operational changes are needed.

In commenting on a draft of this report, the Commissioner of Internal
Revenue agreed with our assessment of the NRP. He also noted that,
subsequent to completion of our work, IRS proposed a somewhat modified
approach that shifts even more of the burden to IRS and reduces the need to
conduct traditional face- to- face audits. The Commissioner noted that IRS
is beginning to seek external stakeholder help in refining Results in Brief

Page 4 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

the approach to measuring voluntary compliance. The Commissioner?s comments
are discussed later in this report and are reprinted in app. IV.

One of IRS? strategic goals is to provide top- quality service to all
taxpayers through fair and uniform application of the law. The Commissioner
of Internal Revenue has stated that measuring voluntary compliance is
essential for determining IRS? progress in meeting this goal. 2 However,
IRS? last measure of voluntary reporting compliance was done on tax year
1988 returns, where an estimated 8 percent of taxes owed were underreported
on individual tax returns. This measure was developed from data obtained
under IRS? 1988 Taxpayer Compliance Measurement Program (TCMP), which
audited a random sample of about 50,000 individual taxpayers. 3 IRS is
concerned that these data are too old to be meaningful.

IRS last planned to measure voluntary reporting compliance for tax year 1994
returns under TCMP. The 1994 TCMP was an ambitious effort, with IRS planning
to audit over 150,000 randomly selected tax returns of individuals,
corporations, partnerships, and S- corporations. Over 92,000 of these audits
were to be conducted on individuals (including sole proprietors and farmers)
filing the Form 1040. Before beginning the audit process, however, IRS
canceled TCMP because it was too costly. 4 Also contributing to the
project?s cancellation was criticism from Congress, the media, tax
community, and taxpayers, because the sample was considered too large and
the audits too burdensome on taxpayers.

We have previously reported that the results of TCMP studies provided more
than just an indicator of compliance status. (See app. III for a list of the
reports we have issued on TCMP studies.) The information generated from TCMP
surveys was used to help IRS identify compliance trends, and it allowed IRS
to suggest changes in tax laws and regulations to improve voluntary
reporting compliance. TCMP results were also used to develop

2 The National Commission on Restructuring the Internal Revenue Service also
reported in June 1997 that it was important that IRS measure voluntary
compliance. 3 TCMP audits have been conducted periodically since 1963 on
individuals, corporations, partnerships, S- corporations, and estates.
Appendix II lists the TCMP surveys. 4 IRS estimated that the 1994 TCMP would
cost about $559 million in direct costs over 3 fiscal years and about $1. 5
billion in opportunity costs, which are the revenues that would not be
realized from conducting regular audits. While the primary purpose of TCMP
audits was not to produce revenues, IRS estimated that the revenue yield
from these cases would have been about $685 million. Background

Page 5 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

formulas that helped IRS more effectively identify noncompliant taxpayers
for operational audits. 5 The formulas developed from TCMP data help IRS
identify tax returns with a high probability that an audit would detect
changes to tax liability. The lower the numbers of returns with no change to
tax liability the better the formulas are as predictors of audit
opportunity. According to IRS, since return selection formulas were first
developed from TCMP data and used to select 1968 tax returns for audit, the
number of audits that result in no change to tax liability have been reduced
from about 46 percent in the year before the use of formulas to about 19
percent in fiscal year 1994. Starting in fiscal year 1995, however, the
number of audits where there was no- change to tax liability after an audit
began to increase, and it was 24 percent in fiscal year 1998, raising IRS?
concerns about increasing the burden on compliant taxpayers.

TCMP data also enabled IRS to estimate the tax gap, which is the difference
between the amount of tax owed and the amount of tax voluntarily paid. The
last tax gap estimate was made using 1985 and 1988 TCMP data, in which IRS
projected that the individual tax gap for 1992 would be over $93.2 billion.
TCMP data were also used by congressional tax writing committees, the
Department of Commerce, Department of the Treasury?s Office of Tax Analysis,
and state governments. These uses included estimating revenue impacts of new
legislation; making adjustments to the national income accounts, such as
gross domestic product; and researching tax noncompliance. Some states have
also used compliance measurement data to help them develop state compliance
programs.

In May 2000, IRS established a NRP Program Office to develop an approach for
measuring voluntary compliance. While IRS has not finalized its plans for
how to measure voluntary reporting compliance as of March 2001, some steps
have been taken. The staff has established study objectives and developed a
set of guiding principles that are to be adhered to when conducting the
study. As of March 2001, IRS had a draft business plan that contained
information on four different approaches for measuring voluntary reporting
compliance, including two that use random audits. Also, in the event that
IRS decides to use audits to measure compliance, the staff plans to use
existing data collection software and has

5 Operational audits are the audits of taxpayer?s books and records done
annually as part of IRS? enforcement effort. Returns are selected because
IRS has some indication that the taxpayer is not compliant. IRS Has Not
Finalized

Its Plans on How It Will Measure Voluntary Reporting Compliance

Page 6 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

started developing database software to organize the data and make it more
accessible to staff in the operating divisions. Given the importance of
these systems to the program, IRS plans to conduct a comprehensive test of
all the software.

NRP is IRS? effort to measure its progress in meeting its strategic goal of
providing top- quality service to all taxpayers through fair and uniform
application of the law. The NRP Office has developed objectives and
established several guiding principles to direct its efforts to plan and
implement this program. Table 1 outlines these objectives and guiding
principles.

Table 1: Objectives and Guiding Principles for the NRP Program Objectives
Guiding principles

 Measure taxpayer reporting compliance

 Improve ability to detect taxpayer noncompliance and develop methods for
allocating compliance resources

 Support strategic measures and planning

 Use results to improve tax system operations

 Minimize taxpayer burden as data are collected

 Solicit external stakeholder ideas and support in design of the study

 Engage IRS? operating divisions in the ownership of the study a

a IRS has four business operating divisions specializing in different types
of taxpayers: Wage and Investment income, Small Business/ Self- Employed,
Large and Mid- Size Business, and Tax Exempt/ Government Entities.

Source: IRS? draft business plan for measuring compliance.

The objectives for NRP cover a wide range of uses for compliance data. In
addition to the objective of determining the voluntary reporting compliance
rate, IRS expects the approved measurement approach to produce data that can
be used to update return selection criteria so that it can better detect
noncompliance, thus reducing the number of compliant taxpayers selected for
operational audits. Similarly, NRP is intended to obtain data that can be
used to improve IRS? operations by providing specific information about
noncompliance, allowing IRS to make operational changes that could improve
compliance. For example, TCMP data indicated that many taxpayers erroneously
claimed dependents on their tax returns. IRS subsequently recommended that
Congress require taxpayers to include the dependent?s social security number
on their returns. Taxpayers claimed 7 million fewer dependents on their 1987
tax returns, the first year dependent social security numbers were required.
IRS Has Established

Objectives and Guiding Principles for Developing a Measure of Voluntary
Reporting Compliance

Page 7 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

The guiding principles represent the conditions under which the study will
be conducted to meet the objectives. According to IRS, these principles were
developed in response to certain real and perceived deficiencies with prior
TCMP studies. For example, IRS recognized the need to limit the burden
imposed on taxpayers by measuring their compliance. In 1994, taxpayer burden
was one of the key criticisms of doing TCMP audits. Although the current
plans for measuring voluntary reporting compliance are not complete, some
proposed actions seem likely to reduce the burden imposed on taxpayers if
IRS determines that random audits are necessary. These include (1) using a
dedicated cadre of auditors for NRP audits, which IRS believes will reduce
the time needed for an audit; (2) building a comprehensive preaudit case
file for the taxpayers being audited, which will reduce the amount of
information auditors must request from the taxpayer; (3) limiting the number
of lines audited on some returns; and (4) minimizing the sample size,
resulting in fewer taxpayers being inconvenienced by audits.

To avoid criticism like that received on its plan for the tax year 1994
TCMP, IRS planned to contact external stakeholders and solicit their ideas
and support before making a decision on the final measurement approach. For
example, at the time of our review, NRP staff had contacted officials at
Treasury to begin discussing any concerns they might have with the study.
The Commissioner indicated that he would be contacting interested
congressional officials directly. Finally, NRP staff planned to contact
members of the tax community, such as tax preparers and accountants.
According to NRP staff, other stakeholders would be included as they are
identified.

To ensure that the measurement approach meets the needs of the operating
divisions, NRP officials have begun a dialogue with operating division
staff. This process began when NRP staff briefed senior operating division
managers on the program?s status. Also, IRS has established an executive
steering committee, chaired by the NRP Director, with representatives from
the Commissioner?s office, each of the operating divisions, and other
potential stakeholders, to ensure high- level, oversight over the study.

As of March 2001, the NRP Office had developed a preliminary draft business
plan, providing information on how IRS intends to develop a measure of
voluntary reporting compliance around the framework of the guiding
principles. The plan also shows how IRS intends to determine the most
appropriate method for meeting NRP objectives. The plan discusses the pros
and cons of four approaches for measuring reporting compliance Components of
IRS? Draft

Business Plan for Measuring Voluntary Reporting Compliance

Page 8 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

and how they align with the program?s objectives. These approaches are (1)
do not measure voluntary reporting compliance, (2) use operational audit
data (i. e., results of IRS? day- to- day regular audit program), (3)
conduct annual random audits of a small sample of taxpayers, or (4) conduct
audits of a larger sample once every 3 years. NRP staff has not yet
completed their study of the costs and benefits of the various approaches.
However, the alternative with a larger sample conducted once every three
years is currently the recommended approach.

The draft business plan analysis of the approach to stick with the status
quo and do nothing points out that this approach would not add to taxpayer
burden, but also that it would not meet study objectives. The draft business
plan analysis for the approach using operational data, while incomplete,
suggests that it may be possible to measure voluntary reporting compliance
in this manner. However, the plan notes that although statistical methods
exist for using nonrepresentative data to project to an entire population,
the methods may not be well suited to analyzing the operational audit data
available to IRS. According to NRP officials, more detailed analysis is
being done on this approach.

As part of its analysis of the two approaches using random samples, IRS
plans to minimize the sample size to address the concerns raised about the
proposed tax year 1994 TCMP sample being too large. IRS proposes to limit
the sample size by reducing the number of groups it plans to analyze. The
sample size may also be reduced because IRS does not plan to update the
operational audit selection criteria for most nonbusiness taxpayers. 6
Finally, in previous compliance measurement studies, every line of a
selected tax return was audited. In keeping with the guiding principle of
reducing taxpayer burden, the draft business plan indicates that IRS does
not intend to audit each line of every return selected for audit. According
to NRP officials, criteria for when to audit a line on the tax return and
how to analyze lines that were not audited have not been determined.

IRS also intends to include in its NRP business plan a detailed data
analysis plan that will show how the information gathered in the study is to
be used to meet the study objectives. In the past, we have emphasized the
importance of having an analysis plan to show how the data are to be

6 Generally, two factors determine the size of the NRP sample- number of
returns needed to get a precise estimate of the compliance rate and number
of returns needed to develop the audit selection formulas. In most cases, it
requires more audits to develop the audit selection formulas than to
precisely estimate the compliance rate.

Page 9 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

used. Also, such a plan is important to ensure that institutional systems
and staff are in place to quickly and efficiently analyze the data and get
the results into the hands of managers who can make appropriate changes. NRP
officials told us that they are working on these plans with operating
division staff and that analysis plans will be included in the final
business plan.

If either of the two random audit approaches or the use of operational
audits is deemed the appropriate method for meeting NRP objectives, IRS
plans to use existing reporting and data gathering systems to collect the
data. NRP officials believe that using these existing systems- the Report
Generating System and the Examination Operational Automation Database- will
reduce the time needed to complete data entry. They also believe that using
the existing software to collect NRP data will result in more accurate data
being added to the database because audit information will be directly
entered by auditors in an electronic format, with no need to transcribe it
after the audit. IRS is also developing database prototype software that is
to interface with the existing systems. IRS officials indicated that when
the database program is completed, they plan to conduct an operational test
of the combined systems to ensure that they are operating efficiently and
will provide the services required for NRP.

The six federal programs we studied, like IRS? TCMP studies, randomly sample
their clients to measure compliance with the rules and regulations covering
their programs and services. Agencies responsible for these six programs
measure compliance to conform to the Government Performance and Results Act
(GPRA) of 1993, which required that agencies establish measures to determine
the results of agency activities. 7 In general, the agencies use random
sampling to reduce the cost and burden of collecting this information. Each
of the six programs we studied conducted compliance reviews differently,
gathering different amounts and types of information with varying amounts of
time required for the review. Table 2 summarizes the characteristics of the
random samples used to measure compliance for each of the six programs.

7 GPRA seeks to shift the focus of government decision- making and
accountability away from a preoccupation with the activities that are
undertaken- such as grants dispensed or inspections made- to a focus on the
results of those activities, such as real gains in employability, safety,
responsiveness, or program quality. The act requires federal agencies to set
goals, measure performance, and report on their accomplishments. How Other
Programs

Measure Compliance

Page 10 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

Table 2: Compliance Review Characteristics for Six Federal Programs Program
Compliance review characteristic Medicare Food stamps OASDI SSI CMP INTEX a

Sample size and units of measure 120,000 claims

55,000 clients 1,440

clients 7,000 clients 558,000

travelers 17,000 travelers

Size of sampled population (millions) 900 7.9 44.5 6. 6 160.5 208.5 Sampling
period for population Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Annual Meet with
clients in- person No b Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Average time spent with clients
(minutes) c Not applicable d 40 45 60 15 17 Third- party contacts No Yes Yes
Yes Yes Yes

a According to INS officials, this is a pilot program. b Medicare compliance
reviews are conducted on claims and only providers, not Medicare recipients,
are contacted. c Indicates time spent with client during the inspection or
examination. Does not include pre- or postinterview

time. d Providers are generally contacted only through correspondence.

Source: Discussions with program officials and review of documents.

While none of the agencies? mission or responsibilities is exactly like
IRS?, there are similarities in how they and IRS treat compliance with the
laws and regulations governing their programs. For example, the agencies and
IRS try to ensure compliance through efforts that apply to all their
clients. Similarly, each agency uses random samples to measure the
effectiveness of these efforts and to determine how well they are
accomplishing their mission objectives. 8 Another similarity, is that most
of the agencies, when measuring compliance, contact clients in person.
Finally, the agencies statistically project sample results to the entire
client population.

Officials in each of the agencies we contacted indicated that the results of
random sampling were used to measure progress against the agency?s strategic
goals. Most of the agencies also used the data to help make decisions about
operational changes that could improve compliance. For example, HCFA used
its compliance measurement data to track claims through the processing
system and record their disposition so that it could identify areas of
concern and develop corrective actions to improve the efficiency and
accuracy of the claims processing system. Also, HCFA officials considered
the analysis of data generated from compliance

8 IRS? efforts to ensure compliance include taxpayer education and
assistance, math error checks, information returns, and operational audits.

Page 11 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

measurement to be a tool for assessing the validity of complaints received
from health care providers as well as a method for evaluating the
contractors providing payment services to the Medicare Program. INS
officials told us that they may be able to use compliance measurement data
to identify areas where additional training was needed for their inspection
staff. Finally, Customs officials indicated that compliance reviews using
random samples allow them to make estimates of how much contraband they fail
to interdict on the primary inspections. According to these officials,
without some secondary review using random sampling, they would only be able
to provide Congress with data on the amount and number of illegal imports
they were able to identify in their primary inspections. (A more detailed
discussion of each agency?s compliance review program can be found in app.
IV.)

By using statistically valid random samples, agencies can obtain compliance
information from a small fraction of the program?s population. For example,
as shown in table 2, 55,000 food stamp recipients are sampled out of 7.9
million total recipients. Random sampling allows state and federal officials
to obtain data on overall compliance, but burden less than 1 percent of the
program?s population.

We obtained written comments on this report in a June 11, 2001, letter from
the Commissioner of Internal Revenue (see app. IV). In his letter, the
Commissioner noted that our report recognizes IRS? need to measure
compliance and develop approaches to effectively identify noncompliance. He
further noted that the NRP approach is continuing to evolve and has been
somewhat modified to shift more of the burden away from taxpayers and onto
IRS. In his letter, the Commissioner stated that the approach currently
being considered maximizes the use of data available to IRS and further
reduces the need to conduct traditional face- to- face audits.

The Commissioner emphasized that the success of NRP is dependent on the
acceptance and support of the methodology by stakeholders. He noted that IRS
is beginning to get external stakeholders involved in refining the NPR
design and that the process will not in any way be considered final until
this step is complete.

We are sending copies of this report to the Chairman and Ranking Minority
Member, Subcommittee on Oversight, House Committee on Ways and Means; the
Secretary of the Treasury; and the Commissioner of Internal Revenue. The
report is also available at www. gao. gov. Agency Comments

Page 12 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

If you or your staff have any questions, please contact Ralph Block at (415)
904- 2150 or me at (202) 512- 9110. Key contributors to this assignment were
Lou Roberts and Kathleen Seymour.

James R. White Director, Tax Issues

Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Page 13 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

We initiated this assignment as part of our effort to monitor IRS?
activities related to its reorganization, implementation of its new
strategic goals, and development of measures to assess its progress in
meeting these goals. Also, we wanted to explore how other agencies assessed
compliance with their rules and regulations and measured progress against
their strategic goals.

Our objective was to determine the status of IRS? plans to measure voluntary
reporting compliance. In addition, we looked at how compliance is measured
in six other federal programs.

To determine the status of IRS? efforts to measure voluntary compliance, we
reviewed available planning documents, including a preliminary draft of the
business plan. We discussed potential methodologies IRS might use to measure
voluntary compliance with NRP officials. We also discussed potential
sampling methodologies with various officials from IRS? Research Division as
well as NRP officials. We reviewed preliminary documents related to the
random sampling methodologies, including an assessment of IRS? documentation
for the additional cases that would be required to update return selection
formulas. We talked to officials responsible for developing and managing the
data gathering and report writing systems IRS plans to use during its study.
Additionally, we reviewed documentation for these systems.

We did not evaluate IRS? overall efforts to measure voluntary compliance
because parts of the business plan had not yet been completed. We plan to
continue to monitor and report on IRS? efforts to develop an acceptable
approach for measuring voluntary compliance.

To describe how other agencies measure compliance, we reviewed information
available at federal agency Web sites and identified five agencies and six
programs where random sampling was used to determine compliance. We
contacted officials from these agencies and reviewed information from the
random sampling programs. Table 3 lists the agencies and the programs they
administer. Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and

Methodology Objectives

Scope and Methodology

Appendix I: Objectives, Scope, and Methodology

Page 14 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

Table 3: Agencies Contacted and Programs Administered Agency Program
administered

Health Care Financing Administration Medicare U. S. Department of
Agriculture Food Stamps

Old Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance Program Social Security
Administration

Supplemental Security Income Program U. S. Customs Service Compliance
Measurement Program

Immigration and Naturalization Service Inspections? Traveler Examinations
Pilot Program

Source: Agencies contacted.

At each agency, we obtained documentation about the random sampling efforts
and discussed random sampling procedures with agency officials. We also
discussed how the data from the random samples were used and how agency
operations had been changed based on these data. Our work on the six
programs was descriptive, and we did not attempt to assess the effectiveness
of the random sampling programs.

Appendix II: TCMP Surveys Page 15 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary
Compliance

The following table summarizes IRS? efforts to measure voluntary compliance
using the TCMP surveys between 1963 and 1988.

Table 4: Types of TCMP Surveys by Return Type and Tax Year Type of TCMP
survey Tax year Sample size

1963 92,000 1965 50,000 1969 53,000 1971 26,000 1973 55,000 1976 50,000 1979
55,000 1982 50,000 1985 50,000 Individual income tax

1988 54,000 1969 16,000 1973 20,000 1978 33,000 1981 33,000 Small
corporations

1987 19,000 Estate returns 1971 4,600

1974 11,400 1979 20,000 Exempt organization returns

1988 3,000 Fiduciary returns 1975 8,900 Employee plan returns 1982 18,000
Partnership returns 1982 27,000 S corporation returns 1985 10,000

1963 27,000 1966 114,000 Delinquent returns- non farm business

1969 70,000 1979 25,000 Delinquent returns- individual 1988 25,000 1963
178,000 1964 166,000 1969 1,800,000 1970 1,800,000 1971 1,800,000 1981
1,800,000 Surveys of delinquent accounts

1984 1,800,000 Source: Tax Administration: IRS? Plans to Measure Tax
Compliance Can Be Improved (GAO/ GGD 93- 52, Apr. 5, 1993).

Appendix II: TCMP Surveys

Appendix III: Summary of GAO Assignments Related to Measuring Voluntary
Compliance

Page 16 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

GAO report Summary

Tax Administration: IRS? Plans to Measure Tax Compliance Can Be Improved
(GAO/ GGD- 93- 52, Apr. 5, 1993) Summarizes uses of TCMP data and outlines
who uses the data.

Identifies weaknesses of proposed changes and establishes criteria for
evaluating proposed changes to measures of voluntary compliance.

Tax Compliance: Status of the Tax Year 1994 Compliance Measurement Program
(GAO/ GGD- 95- 39, Dec. 30, 1994) Summarizes IRS? plans for the 1994 TCMP
and discusses promising

changes. Identifies several weaknesses in the plan that IRS needs to fix
before implementing the project.

Tax Compliance: 1994 Taxpayer Compliance Measurement Program (GAO/ T- GGD-
95- 207, July 18, 1995) Testimony on 1994 TCMP before the Subcommittee on
Oversight,

Committee on Ways and Means. Discusses uses of TCMP data and status of
planned 1994 TCMP effort. Discusses some of the criticisms of TCMP.
Identifies GAO reports where TCMP data were used. Letter to the Commissioner
on TCMP Errors (GAO/ GGD- 95199R,

July 19, 1995) Summarizes errors in audits for 1988 TCMP and suggests
changes to codes to be used to categorize the cause of noncompliance for the

planned 1994 TCMP project.

Tax Administration: Information on IRS? Taxpayer Compliance Measurement
Program (GAO/ GGD- 96- 21, Oct. 6, 1995) Follow- up on issues raised in our
December 1994 report concerning

timeliness and the types of data IRS planned to gather for TCMP audits.
Also, briefly discusses other sources of data on voluntary compliance and
the relevance of TCMP data for alternative tax system proposals. Indicates
how IRS responded to our recommendations.

Tax Administration: Alternative Strategies to Obtain Compliance Data (GAO/
GGD- 96- 89. Apr. 26, 1996) Summarizes the problems caused by cancellation
of the 1994 TCMP

project. This report also identifies sampling strategies that will reduce
the sample size and still provide some data.

Source: Developed from prior GAO reports on TCMP.

Appendix III: Summary of GAO Assignments Related to Measuring Voluntary
Compliance

Appendix IV: How Compliance Is Measured for Six Programs

Page 17 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

Similar to IRS? prior studies on measuring taxpayer compliance, some federal
agencies randomly sample their clients to measure compliance with the rules
and regulations covering their programs and services. In general, agencies
use random samples to reduce the cost and burden of collecting information
on how well the agency is performing its functions. We tried to focus on the
following six areas, when the data were available: (1) sample population
from which the sample is drawn; (2) sample size; (3) methodology used to
select the sample; (4) what data were collected and how they were used; (5)
length of time to conduct the case reviews; and (6) cost of the reviews.

The agencies we contacted have augmented their efforts to measure compliance
since passage of the Government Performance and Results Act (GPRA), which
required that agencies establish measures to determine the results of agency
activities. GPRA seeks to shift the focus of government decision- making and
accountability away from a preoccupation with the activities that are
undertaken- such as grants dispensed or inspections made- to focus on the
results of those activities, such as real gains in employability, safety,
responsiveness, or program quality. GPRA also requires federal agencies to
set goals, measure performance, and report on their accomplishments.

Measuring compliance is not the same thing as ensuring compliance. Agencies
use various processes, including verification of submitted information, in
an effort to ensure that all clients are in compliance with the rules and
regulations governing the programs. For example, in the Food Stamp program,
states verify income and household circumstances during the application
process. In contrast, agencies measure compliance to determine the
effectiveness of these efforts to ensure compliance. A key difference
between efforts to assure compliance and efforts to measure compliance is
that assurance generally applies to every client the agency serves while
measurements are generally based on a random sample of a small portion of
the clientele. The following sections describe the steps five agencies are
taking to measure compliance with the laws and regulations governing the six
programs we reviewed.

The Health Care Financing Administration, part of the Department of Health
and Human Services, administers the Medicare Program. Medicare annually pays
more than $200 billion to 1 million health care providers for services
provided to nearly 40 million seniors and disabled Americans. Appendix IV:
How Compliance Is Measured

for Six Programs HCFA, Medicare Program

Appendix IV: How Compliance Is Measured for Six Programs

Page 18 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

In August 2000, HCFA developed and began to implement a new measure that
looks at the accuracy and documentation for payments to providers. This new
compliance measure, called the Comprehensive Error Rate Testing (CERT)
Program, is designed to assess how accurately providers bill the Medicare
Program and improve on the accuracy and usefulness of existing studies. 1
HCFA has contracted the CERT Program functions to an independent third party
that provides the sampled claims database, medical claim reviewers, and
various management reports. The annual cost of this contract is $4.1
million.

Over the course of each year, a random sample of 120,000 claims is chosen
from the over 900 million Medicare claims received. Analysts randomly select
2,000 claims from each of 60 contractors who process Medicare claims-
allowing HCFA to make contractor- specific compliance estimates. Medical
records for the sampled claims are requested from the provider, and medical
professionals independent of HCFA review the records for appropriateness of
treatment and accuracy of billing. If necessary, the provider may be
contacted and asked to explain items on the claim and related medical
records. HCFA is phasing in the CERT project, starting with durable medical
equipment claims. It plans to have a baseline error rate for the entire
program by December 2002. Subsequently, the error rate will be updated
annually.

According to HCFA officials, a primary use of the CERT data will be to
measure how well they meet the goals established for GPRA. HCFA officials
also noted that the data would be used to determine how well contractors
were fulfilling their processing functions. Finally, HCFA officials told us
that they believe that CERT data can be used to identify problems with the
program, such as assertions by providers that claims they submit are often
lost or misplaced by HCFA contractors.

The Food Stamp Program is the largest of the domestic food and nutrition
assistance programs. Administered by the U. S. Department of Agriculture?s
Food and Nutrition Service, food stamps worth $16.9 billion were issued to
an average of 19.8 million persons per month for fiscal year 1998.

1 HCFA?s Office of the Inspector General also conducts audits that provide a
national payment error rate. Inspector General auditors select a
statistically valid sample using a multistage, stratified sample design.
This method estimates the extent of fee- for- service payments that do not
comply with Medicare laws and regulations. Department of

Agriculture, Food Stamp Program

Appendix IV: How Compliance Is Measured for Six Programs

Page 19 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

Each year, states identify a random sample of individuals receiving food
stamps; the sample totals about 50,000 nationwide. States are responsible
for conducting eligibility determinations for this sample of households, and
certifying the correctness of these eligibility determinations. For example,
the state of California had 865,632 food stamp recipients for which the
state completed 1,103 reviews for fiscal year 1998. After the state reviews,
the quality control group in the Food and Nutrition Service selects a
subsample of cases reviewed by the states in order to assess the accuracy of
these certification actions. These subsamples are also used to identify the
state?s error rate, which affects the amount of funding the state receives
for administering the program. In 1998, the Food and Nutrition Service
quality control sample ranged from 150 to about 400 cases per state,
depending on the state?s level of program participation. For example, 377
cases were sampled from California.

State reviews consist of face- to- face interviews with food stamp
recipients to determine eligibility and whether they are receiving the
proper amount of food stamps. Interviews are conducted at the client?s home,
or workplace. The client must provide documentation of their household
circumstances, including information on each household member, their income,
and the household?s income. State reviewers also obtain information from
external databases and other third parties. The interview generally lasts
from 30 to 40 minutes. Data are collected on a 16- page data collection
instrument. These data are aggregated, and a statewide error rate is
calculated. The Food and Nutrition Service validates this process. Food and
Nutrition Service officials estimate that the entire compliance and quality
control program costs about $72 million annually.

According to agency officials, these reviews are used to determine the
quality of the states? efforts to screen applicants for food stamps and to
determine how enhanced funding is awarded and liabilities are assessed.
These reviews are also used to determine how effectively the program is
meeting its goal of improving the accuracy of eligibility determinations and
food stamp allotment amounts.

The Social Security Administration (SSA) administers the Old Age, Survivors,
and Disability Insurance (OASDI) Program, commonly known as Social Security.
In fiscal year 1999, SSA made payments of over $382 billion to more than 44
million claimants of retirement and disability insurance payments. With
payments this large, even very small payment discrepancies can result in the
loss of very large amounts of money. Given the potential magnitude of even
small payment discrepancies and the need SSA, Old Age,

Survivors, and Disability Insurance Programs

Appendix IV: How Compliance Is Measured for Six Programs

Page 20 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

to protect the Social Security Trust Fund, SSA has made improving payment
accuracy a key strategic goal.

The payment accuracy rate is determined through an annual review of
statistically valid samples in both the old age and disability programs. For
the old age program, SSA randomly selects 80 cases per month (960 per year)
for review of payment accuracy. In the disability program, 40 cases per
month are selected (480 per year). According to SSA officials, these are
statistically valid samples from which payment accuracy estimates can be
made for the entire program population.

SSA reviews the case file and also contacts the claimant either in person or
by telephone. Information is obtained from review of SSA files and from the
claimant to assess the accuracy of payments. Claimant data are summarized on
a 16- page questionnaire. Data obtained from the claimant include other
names and social security numbers used in reporting earnings, marital
history, disability information, and information on military service.

SSA officials told us that the samples and reviews are conducted primarily
to measure how well the agency is meeting its objectives of improving
payment accuracy. According to SSA officials, however, information from
these samples is also used to identify problems with processes related to
payment accuracy.

The SSI Program is the nation?s largest federally funded cash assistance
program for the poor. The program is administered by SSA, and in 1999, paid
about $28 billion in benefits to 6.6 million recipients. SSI is a
meanstested program designed to provide or supplement the income of aged,
blind, or disabled individuals with limited income and resources.

SSA?s Office of Quality Assurance and Performance Assessment annually
assesses payment accuracy in the SSI Program using a random sample of
program participants. SSA selects about 580 SSI recipients a month- almost
7,000 per year- to assess payment accuracy. The only requirement for
selection in this review is that the recipient has received a SSI payment
during the selection month.

SSA uses a 26- page case analysis worksheet to collect information on each
of the selected SSI recipients. In each case, SSA conducts a desk review and
also contacts the SSI recipient either face- to- face in their homes or over
the telephone. During recipient contacts, SSA obtains demographic SSA,
Supplemental

Security Income Program

Appendix IV: How Compliance Is Measured for Six Programs

Page 21 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

information, documentation of marital status, work history, income
information, and changes in living arrangements, including household
composition and expenses. According to SSA officials, this worksheet
requires about 1 hour to administer.

SSA uses the data obtained from these SSI reviews to calculate a payment
accuracy estimate. This estimate is used to assess how effectively and
efficiently SSA performs its day- to- day business processes and service
delivery functions. These reviews provide the basis for reports to Congress
and other monitoring authorities and measure payment accuracy for the SSI
Program.

Customs is responsible for ensuring that all goods entering and exiting the
United States do so in compliance with all U. S. laws and regulations.
Customs inspects goods and persons arriving by land, sea, and air at over
300 ports of entry. During fiscal year 2000, Customs processed about 482
million passengers arriving at land and airport ports of entry.

Customs conducts several types of random audits as part of its management
and quality control efforts. The largest of these random inspection programs
is conducted at U. S. land border crossings, where during fiscal year 2000,
Customs randomly selected over 326,000 privately owned vehicles entering the
country for a detailed secondary inspection. In these inspections, Customs
looks for illegal contraband, such as drugs, and other goods that were not
declared.

Similar random inspections are conducted at the top 20 commercial air
passenger ports of entry, where in fiscal year 2000, over 232,000 passengers
were randomly selected for detailed secondary inspections. According to
Customs officials, these secondary inspections range from 5 minutes to 20
minutes. Longer inspection times occur at land ports of entry, where the
inspector must conduct a comprehensive inspection of vehicles. A shorter
period is needed at airports, where inspectors generally only look at the
contents of baggage. Inspectors complete a one- page data collection
instrument, obtaining information such as country of origin, passport
information, and other demographic data. Customs also uses a law enforcement
network as a data resource for determining criminal activities.

Customs uses the information from these secondary inspections to provide an
estimate of the number of violators and the effectiveness of its primary
inspection process. These inspections also serve as a measure of Customs
Service,

Compliance Measurement Program

Appendix IV: How Compliance Is Measured for Six Programs

Page 22 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

how well Customs is meeting the goals it established to comply with GPRA.
Results of primary inspections only provide data on the number of
interdictions made-- and not the number that are missed. Customs officials
indicated that using random sampling for secondary inspections better meets
GPRA goals because the secondary inspections allow them to estimate how much
contraband they failed to interdict on the primary inspections.
Consequently, using random samples helps them provide Congress with better
inspection data overall.

Customs officials indicated that the information gathered from these
secondary inspections is used to develop training programs for inspectors
and to indicate where changes in inspection programs are needed.

The mission of the Immigration and Naturalization Service is to ensure that
individuals seeking entry to the United States are legally entitled to do
so. Economic, demographic, and political pressures worldwide have resulted
in continued growth in the number of international migrants seeking to come
to the United States, both legally and illegally. INS conducted over 497
million primary inspections in fiscal year 1999 at more than 300 ports of
entry. Each year since fiscal year 1999, as part of a pilot program, INS
conducts about 17,000 secondary inspections on randomly selected travelers
entering the country through 22 of the ports of entry selected for analysis.
These inspections are rigorous, supplementary inspections of travelers who
have already been cleared through primary inspection. INS is currently
evaluating this pilot program.

INS officials indicated that, under the pilot program, inspectors personally
interview the traveler and review his or her passport and any other
documents needed to legally enter the country. INS inspectors complete a
one- page data collection instrument and collect data such as citizenship
status, date of birth, country of residence, gender, and factors that led to
a determination of inadmissible status (if appropriate). INS also conducts
physical inspections of personal items, such as contents of luggage,
pockets, wallets, and vehicles. Like Customs, INS also uses a law
enforcement network as a data resource for determining criminal activities.

According to INS officials, each of these inspections, on average, requires
an additional 11 minutes for each traveler. INS officials said that primary
inspections take less than one minute. According to INS officials, the
primary purpose of this pilot program is to determine whether or not these
inspections provide a statistically valid performance measure to identify
INS, Inspections?

Traveler Examinations Program

Appendix IV: How Compliance Is Measured for Six Programs

Page 23 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

the extent to which noncitizens are being incorrectly admitted to the United
States at these 22 sites. This information could also be used to train
agents and modify procedures to improve operations. INS officials also noted
that the pilot was used to measure the results of agency operations in
accordance with GPRA. No data were available on the cost of these
activities.

Appendix V: Comments From the Internal Revenue Service

Page 24 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance

Appendix V: Comments From the Internal Revenue Service

Appendix V: Comments From the Internal Revenue Service

Page 25 GAO- 01- 535 Measuring Voluntary Compliance (268919)

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