Military Readiness: Updated Readiness Status of U.S. Air Transport
Capability (Correspondence, 03/16/2001, GAO/GAO-01-495R).
The National Military Strategy states that the U.S. military should be
able to fight and win two nearly simultaneous wars. Recently, concerns
have been raised about whether the U.S. mobility capabilities may be
inadequate to quickly transport the military forces and supplies
necessary to execute strategy. This correspondence provides updated
information on the readiness status of U.S. airlift and aerial refueling
aircraft. Specifically, GAO provides (1) mission capable data for
various military aircraft, (2) fiscal year 2000 average mission capable
rates, and (3) data on aircraft that are not mission capable for supply
and cannibalization rates for fiscal years 1997-2000.
--------------------------- Indexing Terms -----------------------------
REPORTNUM: GAO-01-495R
TITLE: Military Readiness: Updated Readiness Status of U.S. Air
Transport Capability
DATE: 03/16/2001
SUBJECT: Military aircraft
Mobilization
Defense contingency planning
Logistics
Military airlift operations
Defense capabilities
IDENTIFIER: JCS National Military Strategy
C-5 Aircraft
C-141 Aircraft
C-17 Aircraft
KC-10 Aircraft
KC-135 Aircraft
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GAO-01-495R
Military Readiness
United States General Accounting Office Washington, DC 20548
B- 286562 March 16, 2001 The Honorable Curt Weldon Chairman, Subcommittee on
Readiness Committee on Armed Services House of Representatives
Subject: Military Readiness: Updated Readiness Status of U. S. Air Transport
Capability
Dear Mr. Chairman: This letter conveys updated information on the readiness
status of U. S. airlift and aerial refueling aircraft similar to that
provided in our June 2000 report entitled Military Readiness: Air Transport
Capability Falls Short of Requirements. Your office asked us to provide this
data because of your ongoing concern that U. S. mobility capabilities may be
inadequate to quickly transport the military forces and supplies necessary
to execute the National Military Strategy of fighting and winning two nearly
simultaneous major theater wars. Specifically, we are providing the
following:
charts showing fiscal years 1997- 2000 mission capable data for C- 5s, C-
141s, C17s, KC- 10s and KC- 135s compared to the U. S. Air Force Air
Mobility Command's standards,
tables showing the fiscal year 2000 average mission capable rates, the
resulting shortfalls in airlift and aerial refueling capability at the onset
of war based on the aircraft performing at these rates, and Office of the
Secretary of Defense information relating to wartime surge capability, and
charts showing the C- 5, KC- 10 and KC- 135 not mission capable for supply
and cannibalization rates for fiscal years 1997- 2000.
GAO- 01- 495R Military Readiness Page 2 We briefed your office on this data
on January 25, 2001. As we agreed at that time,
GAO will continue to evaluate the Mobility Requirements Study 2005. If you
have questions, please contact me on (757) 552- 8111 or my Assistant
Director, Mr. William Meredith, on (202) 512- 4275.
Sincerely yours, Neal P. Curtin Director, Defense Capabilities and
Management
Enclosure
Enclosure Page 3 GAO- 01- 495R Military Readiness
Updated Readiness Status of U. S. Air Transport Capability
Enclosure Page 4 GAO- 01- 495R Military Readiness
Three Measures of Air Transport Capability
Number of aircraft required for wartime
- the number of aircraft which are required to meet wartime missions.
?
Number of aircraft mission capable in peacetime
- the number of mission authorized aircraft that were fully or partially
mission capable based on monthly
fleet- wide Air Mobility Command Health of Force data. ?
Projected military wartime surge capability
- the million- ton miles per day (MTM/ D) DOD estimates it has to meet
military wartime objectives in the first 45
days of the most demanding wartime operations. Wartime surge is predicated
on:
? full activation of the Air Reserve Component crews and maintenance, ?
temporary deferral of scheduled maintenance activity,
? accelerating the return of aircraft in depot status to operational status,
? using unit training aircraft for operational missions, and
? only grounding aircraft that are not- mission capable for items on the
minimum equipment list.
Enclosure Page 5 GAO- 01- 495R Military Readiness
C- 5 Aircraft Required and Peacetime Mission Capable, Fiscal Years 1997-
2000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
Oct 96
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 97
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 98
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 99
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Equivalent Aircraft Mission Capable C- 5 Aircraft
Required
Source: GAO Analysis of U. S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
Shortfall Number of Aircraft
Enclosure Page 6 GAO- 01- 495R Military Readiness
C- 135 Aircraft Required and Peacetime Mission Capable, Fiscal Years 1997-
2000
Source: GAO Analysis of U. S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400
Oct 96
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 97
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 98
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 99
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Equivalent Aircraft Mission Capable KC- 135 Aircraft
Required
Shortfall Number of Aircraft
Enclosure Page 7 GAO- 01- 495R Military Readiness
KC- 10 Aircraft Required and Peacetime Mission Capable, Fiscal Years 1997-
2000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
Oct 96
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 97
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 98
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 99
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Equivalent Aircraft Mission Capable KC- 10 Aircraft
Required
Shortfall
Source: GAO Analysis of U. S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
Number of Aircraft
Enclosure Page 8 GAO- 01- 495R Military Readiness
C- 17 Aircraft Required and Peacetime Mission Capable, Fiscal Years 1997-
2000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60
O ct 9 6
Dec Feb Apr Ju n Au g Oct 9 7
Dec Feb Apr Ju n Au g Oct 9 8
D ec Feb Apr Jun A ug Oct 9 9
D ec Feb A pr Jun A ug Equivalent Aircraft Mission Capable C-17 Aircraft
Required
Shortfall
Source: GAO Analysis of U. S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
Number of Aircraft
Enclosure Page 9 GAO- 01- 495R Military Readiness
C- 141 Aircraft Required and Peacetime Mission Capable, Fiscal Years 1997-
2000
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160
Oct 96
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 97
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 98
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 99
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Equivalent Aircraft Mission Capable C- 141 Aircraft
Required
Shortfall
Source: GAO Analysis of U. S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
Number of Aircraft
Enclosure Page 10 GAO- 01- 495R Military Readiness
Air Mobility Command Airlift and Aerial Refueling Aircraft Mission Capable
Rates
Source: GAO Analysis of U. S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data. a
Average mission capable rates for the C- 5, KC- 135, and KC- 10 were based
on rates for fiscal years 1997 – 99. Average mission capable rates for
the C- 141 and C- 17 were based on fourth quarter fiscal year 1999 data
because these aircraft are in transition. These rates were
computed by dividing the number of aircraft mission capable by the total
number of primary mission aircraft. b
Rate is for the 442 KC- 135s assigned to the Air Mobility Command.
Mission capable rates (percent) Aircraft type
Air Mobility Command standard wartime rates
FY 1997- 99 Average a
peacetime rates FY 2000 Average
peacetime rates
C- 5 75 55 53 C- 17 87. 5 66 63
C- 141 80 61 68 KC- 135 85 67
b 49
b KC- 10 85 88 83
a
Enclosure Page 11 GAO- 01- 495R Military Readiness
Airlift and Aerial Refueling Shortfall Based on Mission Capable Rates
Projected for Wartime and 1995 Requirements
Million- ton miles per day (MTM/ D) Million pounds of fuel per day (MPF/ D)
Source: GAO Analysis of U. S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
Mission Current
peacetime capability
a 1995 Military
wartime requirement
Projected military wartime surge
capability b
Military wartime capability
shortfall Percentage
military wartime shortfall
C- 5 9. 17 MTM/ D 12.98 MTM/ D 9. 47 MTM/ D 3.51 MTM/ D 12.02 KC- 10 3. 01
MTM/ D 3.08 MTM/ D 3. 01 MTM/ D 0.07 MTM/ D 0. 20
C- 17 5.09 MTM/ D 7. 07 MTM/ D 6.96 MTM/ D 0. 11 MTM/ D 0.40 C- 141 3.71
MTM/ D 4. 36 MTM/ D 4.01 MTM/ D 0. 35 MTM/ D 1.20
Programmed Shortfall c
1.71 MTM/ D 1. 71 MTM/ D 5.86
Total military airlift 20.98 MTM/ D 29.20 MTM/ D d
23.44 MTM/ D d
5.76 MTM/ D d
19.73 d
KC- 135 232 aircraft 402 aircraft 232 aircraft e
170 aircraft 38.37 KC- 10 40 ai rcraft 41 aircraft 40 ai rcraft
e 1 aircraft 0. 23
Total refueling aircraft 272 aircraft 443 aircraft 272 aircraft
e
171 aircraft 38.60
KC- 135 43.1 MPF/ D 74.8 MPF/ D 43.1 MPF/ D e
31.7 MPF/ D 29.88 KC- 10 30.5 MPF/ D 31.3 MPF/ D 30.5 MPF/ D
e 0.7 MPF/ D 0.69
Total refueling capacity 73.7 MPF/ D d
106.1 MPF/ D 73.7 MPF/ D d, e
32.4 MPF/ D 30.57
a Based on fiscalyear2000 averagemissioncapablerates.
b Estimates provided by the Office of the Secretary of Defense, Program
Analysis and Evaluation based on February 8, 2001 mission capable rates
proj ected f or wart ime. c
The amount expected to be short during the transition between C- 141 and C-
17 aircraft. d
Totals may not add due to rounding. e
OSD did not provide projected wartime capability estimates for refueling
aircraft.
Enclosure Page 12 GAO- 01- 495R Military Readiness
Airlift Shortfall Based on Projected Wartime Surge Capability Compared to
1995 and 2005 Mobility Requirements
Source: Wartime surge data provided by the Office of the Secretary of
Defense. GAO Analysis of U. S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command Data. 1995
Airlift 2005 Airlift
Total wartime requirement 49.7 MTM/ D a
51. 1– 54.5 MTM/ D b
Military wartime requirement c
29. 2 MTM/ D 30. 6– 34.0 MTM/ D Projected military wartime surge
capability 23. 44 MTM/ D 23.44 MTM/ D
Military wartime capability shortfall 5. 76 MTM/ D 7. 16– 10.56 MTM/ D
Percentage military wartime shortfall 19.73 23. 40– 31. 06
a The 1995 Mobi l it y Requirements St udy Bot t om Up Review Updat e ci t
es t his ai rl if t r equi r ement.
b Mobility Requirements Study 2005 identifies this range of airlift
requirements depending on the scenario.
c Both studies cite that 20. 5 MTM/ D will be provided by the civilian
fleet. The remaining portion of the requirement is expected to be provided
by the military.
Enclosure Page 13 GAO- 01- 495R Military Readiness
Two Indicators of Parts Availability
?
Not Mission Capable Supply Rate (NMCS)
the percent of possessed hours that aircraft were not mission capable
for supply based on monthly fleet- wide Air Mobility Command Health of Force
data.
?
Cannibalization Rate
the average number of serviceable parts removals per 100 sorties based on
monthly fleet- wide
Air Mobility Command Health of Force data.
Enclosure Page 14 GAO- 01- 495R Military Readiness
Source: GAO Analysis of U. S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data. Not
Mission Capable for Supply (NMCS)
C- 5 NMCS Rate Compared to the Air Mobility Command Standard for Fiscal
Years 1997- 2000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Oct 96
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 97
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 98
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 99
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug C- 5 NMCS Rate C- 5 Standard NMCS Rate
Excessive NMCS Rate Rate in Percent
Acceptable NMCS Rate
Enclosure Page 15 GAO- 01- 495R Military Readiness
C- 5 Cannibalizations Per 100 Sorties Compared to the Air Mobility Command
Standard for Fiscal Years 1997- 2000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Oct 96
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 97
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 98
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 99
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug C- 5 Cannibalization Rate C- 5 Standard Cannibalization
Rate
Excess Cannibalization
Source: GAO Analysis of U. S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
Acceptable Cannibalization Cannibalizations Per 100 Sorties
Enclosure Page 16 GAO- 01- 495R Military Readiness
Source: GAO Analysis of U. S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data. Not
Mission Capable for Supply (NMCS)
KC- 135 NMCS Rate Compared to the Air Mobility Command Standard for Fiscal
Years 1997- 2000
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
Oct 96
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 97
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 98
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 99
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug KC- 135 NMCS Rate KC- 135 Standard NMCS Rate
Excessive NMCS Rate Rate in Percent
Acceptable NMCS Rate
Enclosure Page 17 GAO- 01- 495R Military Readiness
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Oct 96
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 97
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 98
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 99
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug KC- 135 Cannibalization Rate KC- 135 S tandar d
Cannibalization Rate
KC- 135 Cannibalizations Per 100 Sorties Compared to the Air Mobility
Command Standard for Fiscal Years 1997- 2000
Source: GAO Analysis of U. S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
Acceptable cannibalization Excess Cannibalization Cannibalizations Per 100
Sorties
Enclosure Page 18 GAO- 01- 495R Military Readiness
KC- 10 NMCS Rate Compared to the Air Mobility Command Standard for Fiscal
Years 1997- 2000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Oct 96
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 97
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 98
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 99
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug KC- 10 NMCS Rate KC- 10 Standard NMCS Rate
Excessive NMCS Rate
Source: GAO Analysis of U. S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
Rate in Percent
Not Mission Capable for Supply (NMCS)
Acceptable NMCS Rate
Enclosure Page 19 GAO- 01- 495R Military Readiness
KC- 10 Cannibalizations Per 100 Sorties Compared to the Air Mobility Command
Standard for Fiscal Years 1997- 2000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Oct 96
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 97
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 98
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct 99
Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug KC- 10 Cannibalization Rate KC- 10 Standard
Cannibalization Rate
Excess Cannibalization
Source: GAO Analysis of U. S. Air Force, Air Mobility Command data.
Acceptable Cannibalization Cannibalizations Per 100 Sorties
*** End of document. ***