Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-Range Planning
Process (Correspondence, 01/25/2001, GAO/GAO-01-308R).

GAO reported on the Administrative Office of the United States Courts'
(AOUSC) progress in implementing six GAO recommendations to improve its
long-range space planning process.. Of the six recommendations made,
AOUSC has fully implemented five and partially implemented one.
Specifically, AOUSC began (1) using a statistical classification
technique, known as cluster analysis, to create groups of federal
districts with similar characteristics, (2) relying on an automated
computer program called AnyCourt to verify that districts' estimates of
space baselines are consistent with the U.S. Courts Design Guide, (3)
using a standard statistical forecasting technique, known as
AutoRegressive Integrated Moving-Average, as a basis for developing more
accurate caseload projections, (4) helping districts improve their
personnel projections by comparing their projections to AOUSC personnel
projections and discussing the results with districts when large
deviations occurred, and (5) providing the General Services
Administration (GSA) with data related to 10-year projections of
districts' estimated space needs to support the judiciary's request for
congressional approval of funds to build new court-related facilities
and modify existing buildings. AOUSC has been unable to fully implement
the remaining recommendation to update the districts' plans every 3 to 5
years. Nevertheless, AOUSC said it will continue to focus its efforts on
updating the plans so that Congress and GSA can have the most accurate
information on space requirements.

--------------------------- Indexing Terms -----------------------------

 REPORTNUM:  GAO-01-308R
     TITLE:  Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the
	     Long-Range Planning Process
      DATE:  01/25/2001
   SUBJECT:  Federal property management
	     Strategic planning
	     Facility construction
	     Projections
	     Federal courts
	     Federal office buildings
	     Statistical methods

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GAO-01-308R

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space United States
General Accounting Office

Washington, DC 20548

January 25, 2001 The Honorable Don Young Chairman The Honorable James L.
Oberstar Ranking Democratic Member Committee on Transportation and
Infrastructure House of Representatives

The Honorable Bud Shuster House of Representatives

Subject: Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long- Range
Planning Process

This letter responds to an August 9, 2000, request from your Subcommittee on
Economic Development, Public Buildings, Hazardous Materials, and Pipeline
Safety. The Subcommittee asked that we obtain updated information on the
Administrative Office of the U. S. Courts' (AOC) progress in implementing
six GAO recommendations that were included in our 1993 report entitled
Federal Judiciary Space: Long- Range Planning Process Needs Revision (GAO/
GGD- 93- 132, Sept. 28, 1993). In that report, we identified three major
problems associated with AOC's long- range planning process: (1) the
inconsistent treatment of federal districts, (2) the use of inaccurate
information in estimating space baselines, and (3) the use of an
inappropriate methodology for projecting caseloads. The report's six
recommendations identified various steps that AOC could take to help address
the problems and improve its longrange planning process.

In the late 1980s, the judiciary recognized that it faced growing space
shortages, security shortfalls, and operational inefficiencies at courthouse
facilities. To address these problems, the Judicial Conference of the United
States directed each of the 94 federal judicial districts, with assistance
from AOC- the administrative arm of the judiciary- to develop long- range
space plans identifying where new and additional space was needed. The
districts' plans comprise the cornerstone of AOC's overall long- range
planning process, which primarily involves developing projections for future
workload, personnel, and space needs for the judiciary's 94 federal
districts. The results of AOC's long- range planning process are used by the
General Services Administration (GSA) to develop funding requests for new or
expanded space in the districts.

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space 2 Our initial
update of AOC's progress in implementing the six 1993 recommendations

occurred in May 1994 when we testified before the Senate Committee on
Governmental Affairs. 1 At that time, we found that AOC had made progress in
improving its long- range planning process by taking action to implement two
of our six recommendations. The two recommendations involved AOC's efforts
to update the federal districts' long- range plans and the time periods
covered by AOC's projections of the space needed in court- related
facilities within various districts. We also found that AOC was assessing
other options to fully address the remaining four recommendations that had
been partially implemented or not yet fully addressed. These recommendations
addressed such matters as the use of improved statistical methods for
classifying districts, forecasting caseloads, and projecting personnel
needs.

Subsequently, in response to the Subcommittee's August 2000 request, our
objective was to obtain updated information on the extent to which AOC has
continued its efforts to implement our recommendations since 1994. To
accomplish this objective, we interviewed AOC headquarters officials
responsible for long- range planning and the consultants who assisted AOC in
its long- range planning efforts. We also reviewed relevant documents
including (1) prior GAO reports and testimony; (2) AOC materials related to
long- range planning, including plans submitted by two federal districts
that AOC identified as illustrative examples of recently completed plans;
and (3) appropriate sections of a May 2000 study prepared by Ernst & Young
(EY) on the judiciary's space and facilities program. 2

On December 13, 2000, we used the slides that appear in enclosure I to brief
the Subcommittee on the results of our work. The slides include AOC's oral
comments. In addition, AOC's written comments on this letter and the slides
are included in enclosure II. As agreed with the Subcommittee, the
transmittal of this letter and its two enclosures represents the culmination
of our work on this assignment.

Results in Brief

The enclosed slides show that, since 1994, AOC has continued its efforts to
improve the long- range planning process and has made progress in
implementing our six previous recommendations. Of the six recommendations,
AOC has fully implemented five and partially implemented one.

Specifically, AOC's actions for implementing the five recommendations
primarily involved

1 Federal Judiciary Space: Progress Is Being Made to Improve the Long- Range
Planning Process (GAO/ T- GGD- 94- 146, May 4, 1994). 2 Independent
Assessment of the Judiciary's Space and Facilities Program, Ernst & Young,
May 2000.

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space 3

using a statistical classification technique, known as cluster analysis, 3
to create groups of federal districts with similar characteristics;

relying on an automated computer program called AnyCourt, which is based on
the U. S. Courts Design Guide (the Design Guide), to verify that districts'
estimates of space baselines are consistent with the Design Guide;

using a standard statistical forecasting technique, known as AutoRegressive
Integrated Moving- Average (ARIMA), 4 as a basis for developing more
accurate caseload projections;

helping districts improve their personnel projections by comparing their
projections to AOC personnel projections and discussing the results with
districts when large deviations occurred; and

providing GSA with data related to 10- year projections of the districts'
estimated space needs to support the judiciary's request for congressional
approval of funds to build new court- related facilities and modify existing
buildings.

Regarding the remaining partially implemented recommendation related to
updating the districts' plans, AOC has not made as much progress as it had
anticipated when we testified in 1994 on AOC's progress in implementing our
recommendations. AOC's current goal is to update the districts' long- range
plans every 3 to 5 years, but it has not been able to meet this goal. AOC
said that it encourages, but cannot compel, the districts to update their
plans and that the need to modify plans for which funding was delayed
impeded its ability to update some other districts' plans. Nevertheless, AOC
said that districts with space needs have been treated fairly and
consistently. AOC mentioned that it considers the updating of districts'
long- range plans to be an important effort and that it has focused its
efforts on updating plans from those districts that have construction
projects in the judiciary's 5- year plan, so that the Congress and GSA can
have the most accurate and up- to- date space requirements for those
projects. Also, according to AOC, the judiciary is considering whether to
reinstate regular site visits so more consistent updating of the districts'
plans can occur.

In addition to its efforts to implement our recommendations, AOC is
currently considering how to best implement other improvements, including
some that were suggested by EY, to the long- range planning process, such as
using more advanced techniques to forecast caseloads. Although AOC's actions
to date have improved the overall process, additional study would be needed
to determine whether other opportunities exist that could further help
improve the long- range planning process. However, as agreed with the
Subcommittee, we did not follow up on them in order to give AOC time to
fully implement the improvements it already has planned or has underway.

3 Cluster analysis is the generic name for several statistical procedures
that are used to create groups or

“clusters” of similar entities. 4 ARIMA is an advanced
statistical technique that can be used to predict future trends from time
series data (e. g., monthly or yearly data on past activity).

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space 4

AOC's Comments and Our Response

In December 2000, we obtained oral comments on a draft of the enclosed
slides from AOC's Assistant Director, Office of Facilities and Security, and
other responsible AOC officials. The officials generally agreed with the
information presented in the slides. As a result of our discussions with
AOC, we made some technical corrections and clarifications to the slides,
where appropriate.

In addition to oral comments, in January 2001, AOC's Associate Director
provided us written comments on a draft of this letter and the enclosed
slides. In his written comments, AOC's Associate Director stated that he was
pleased that we recognized the judiciary's progress in improving the process
since we completed our initial review in 1993, including AOC's efforts to
address and implement our recommendations, and that AOC has worked
diligently over the past 10 years to develop a sound long- range planning
process. AOC's Associate Director said that the process was the first of its
kind to establish a systematic approach to space and facilities planning in
the federal government and that it was being used by other agencies as a
model. Furthermore, he mentioned that the value of the process was
nationally recognized in 1998, when AOC received GSA's Annual Achievement
Award for Real Property Innovation. He said that despite these achievements,
however, AOC will continue to refine and improve the process. In addition to
the written comments, AOC provided some technical clarifications to the
letter and the enclosed slides, which we included where appropriate.

We performed our work from August 2000 to December 2000 in accordance with
generally accepted government auditing standards. We are sending copies of
this letter to the Chairman and Ranking Member, Senate Committee on
Environment and Public Works; the Honorable Jane R. Roth, Chair, Judicial
Conference Committee on Security and Facilities; the Honorable L. Ralph
Mecham, Director, AOC; the Honorable Thurman M. Davis, Sr., Acting
Administrator of GSA; the Director of the Office of Management and Budget,
and other interested congressional committees. The letter will also be
available on GAO's home page at http:// www. gao. gov. Major contributors to
this letter included David Sausville, Martin de Alteriis, James M. Fields,
Anne Hilleary, and Casey Brown. If you have any questions about this letter
or the enclosures, please contact me at (202) 512- 8387 or at ungarb@ gao.
gov.

Bernard L. Ungar Director, Physical Infrastructure

Enclosures - 2

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

5

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

Federal Judiciary Space Administrative Office of the U. S. Courts

Update on Improvement of the Long- Range Planning Process

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

6

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

Presentation Overview

Objective ? Scope and methodology

? Background ? Results in brief

? Status of Administrative Office of the U. S. Courts' (AOC) efforts to
implement GAO's recommendations

? Results of Ernst & Young's (EY) May 2000 study ? Other AOC actions to
improve the long- range planning process

? Issues that could merit further inquiry ? AOC's comments and our response

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

7

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

Objective

? Provide updated information on AOC's progress in implementing GAO's six
recommendations intended to help improve the long

range planning process.

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

8

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

Scope and Methodology

? Scope

? AOC headquarters offices, Washington, D. C.

? Methodology

? Interviewed

? AOC officials responsible for long- range planning and

? consultants that assisted in AOC's statistical analyses.

? Reviewed relevant documents, including

? prior GAO reports and testimony;

? appropriate sections of EY's May 2000 report concerning the judiciary's
space and facilities program;

? materials related to long- range planning, such as plans prepared by two
federal districts; and

? AOC's written responses to GAO's questions.

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

9

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

Background

? The purpose of the judiciary's long- range planning process is to project
future workload, personnel, and space needs for federal

district courts.

? Each of the 94 federal districts is expected to prepare and update a long-
range plan (LRP).

? AOC, the administrative arm of the judiciary, assists the districts in
their planning efforts.

? The results of the process are used by the General Services Administration
to develop funding requests for new or expanded

space.

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

10

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

Background: Overview of the Long- Range Planning Process

? To assist the districts, AOC provides workbooks that contain

? workload forecasts,

? formulas for developing personnel projections based on workload forecasts,
and

? the districts' previous personnel projections.

? Districts initially update their existing LRPs to send to AOC. The updates
include

? personnel projections for 5, 10, 20, and 30 years and

? current space and current unmet space needs.

? AOC estimates future space needs based on personnel projections and space
baselines, reviews updates, and provides feedback to

districts.

? Districts finalize their updates after discussions with AOC .

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

11

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

Background: Prior GAO Work

? In 1993, GAO evaluated the reasonableness of the judiciary's process for
projecting long- range space needs.

? We identified three major problems in our report.

? We made six recommendations to address the problems.

? In 1994, we testified that the judiciary had made progress in implementing
our recommendations.

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

12

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

Results in Brief

? Since 1994, AOC has continued its efforts to improve the long range
planning process.

? Of the six recommendations, AOC has

? fully implemented five and

? partially implemented one.

? AOC is also working to implement other improvements to the process, such
as reinstating site visits and using more advanced

forecasting techniques.

? Although AOC's actions have improved the long- range planning process,
additional study would be needed to determine whether

other opportunities exist to further help improve the process.

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

13

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

Results in Brief Problems identified in

1993 report Recommendations Recommendation status and AOC's actions Issues
that could

merit further inquiry

1a) AOC should prepare updated space plans for a ll d istricts whenever
changes

are made to the assumptions that affect staff and space allocations.

Status: Partially Implemented

AOC's actions

: Established a goal to update the plans every 3 to 5 years, but the goal is
not being

met for some d istricts. The judic iary is considering the reintroduction of
s ite v is it p lanning sessions so

that more consistent updating can occur. The reasons why

some districts do not update their p lans and

the possible e ffects on long- range planning

1. Not a ll d istricts were treated consistently.

1b) AOC should devise a method for class ifying districts that would
consider

case complex ity in addition to caseload.

Status: Fully Implemented

AOC's actions

: Adopted a statistical c lassification method that GAO recommended. When

performing the classification, AOC uses 45 variables, several of which
measure case

complexity. AOC's approach in

using cluster analysis to develop personnel

projections from workload forecasts

2. Districts' baselines to which future space needs

were added d id not always accurately ref lect

current space needs. 2) AOC should revise the long- range

planning process to require that baselines reflect the relationships among

caseloads, staff needs, and space requirements and should inc lude a

mechanism to verify that deficits represent actual unmet space needs.

Status

: Fully Im plemented

AOC's actions

: Checks the baselines using a computer program that is based on the
standards

in the U. S. Courts Des ign Guide. In addition, it rev iews and d iscusses
deficits with AOC program

managers. No issues

3a) AOC should identify and use a standard statistical technique that would

generate accurate caseload projections with defined confidence intervals.

Status

: Fully Im plemented

AOC's actions

: Uses a standard statistical forecasting technique (known as ARIMA) that

generates confidence intervals. Possible additional

forecasting improvements

3b) AOC should reduce the subjectiv ity of the process by e liminating the
use of

arbitrarily selected regression models and by verifying the information
provided

by lo cal representatives.

Status

: Fully Im plemented

AOC's actions

: Uses an acceptable modeling technique (ARIMA) and compares local personnel

forecasts to its own data. The extent to which

districts' final space projections differ from

AOC's suggested projections

3. Methodology used for projecting caseloads was

not statistically acceptable.

3c) AOC should limit the time span covered by the projections to 10 years.

Status

: Fully Im plemented

AOC's actions

: Provides GSA with project proposals based on its 10- year space

requirements. No issues

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

14

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

Status of AOC's Efforts to Implement Six GAO Recommendations Since 1994

Status of the recommendations 1994 2000

Fully implemented 2 (Recommendations 1a and 3c)

5 (Recommendations

1b, 2, 3a, 3b, and 3c) Partially

implemented 2 (Recommendations

3a and 3b) 1 (Recommendation 1a)

Not yet fully addressed

2 (Recommendations

1b and 2) 0

Total 6 6 Note: In 2000, we reclassified Recommendation 1a, which dealt with
updating districts' space plans, as “partially implemented”
because AOC has been unable to update the plans regularly in recent years.

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

15

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

Recommendation 1a:

AOC should prepare updated space plans for all districts whenever changes
are made to the assumptions that affect

staff and space allocations.

Status: Partially Implemented

? AOC stated that it would begin to update the plans for all districts
biennially starting in 1994. However, AOC's data show that more than 20
plans have

not been updated since 1994.

? The current goal is to update all plans every 3 to 5 years; however, AOC
said that this goal is not being met.

? AOC stated the following:

? It encourages districts, but cannot compel them, to update their plans. It
has recently focused attention on those districts expressing space needs.

? Districts with space needs are being treated fairly and consistently.

? Recent delays in construction funding have had an impact on updating.

? Updating district plans is an important effort, and the judiciary will
consider whether to reinstate regular site visits so more consistent
updating of districts'

plans can occur. It plans to pilot new updating procedures in three
districts by March 2001.

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

16

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

Recommendation 1b:

AOC should devise a method for classifying the districts that would consider
case complexity in addition to

caseload.

Status: Fully Implemented

? In response to our recommendation, AOC is now using a statistical
classification technique known as cluster analysis.

1

? AOC's cluster analysis uses 45 variables to create groups of districts
with similar characteristics.

? 30 variables are related to court activities, such as the number of
criminal and civil cases per district judge.

? 15 variables are demographic, such as population and income.

? AOC now accounts for case complexity in some of the court- related
variables, including

? weighted caseload and

? the number of defendants per criminal case. 1

Cluster analysis is the generic name for several statistical procedures that
are used to create groups or “clusters” of similar entities.

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

17

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

Recommendation 2:

AOC should revise the long- range planning process to require that baselines
reflect the relationships among caseloads, staff needs,

and space requirements and include a mechanism to verify that deficits
represent actual unmet space needs.

Status: Fully Implemented

? AOC stated that it recently started routine checks of districts' space
baselines, using an automated computer program, called the

AnyCourt model, that is based on the U. S. Courts Design Guide.

? AnyCourt can assess whether a baseline (existing space plus unmet space
needs) is consistent with what the Design Guide

would specify for existing personnel.

? AOC said it investigates any discrepancies between the baselines and the
Design Guide's standards.

? As part of its investigation, AOC said it reviews and discusses the
baselines with AOC program managers who are familiar

with the courthouses.

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

18

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

Recommendation 3a:

AOC should identify and use a standard statistical technique that would
generate accurate caseload

projections with defined confidence intervals.

Status: Fully Implemented

? AOC now uses a standard statistical forecasting technique known as
AutoRegressive Integrated Moving- Average

(ARIMA) 2

modeling that generates caseload projections with confidence intervals.

3

? AOC is developing procedures to use additional techniques that could yield
more accurate forecasts.

2 ARIMA is an advanced statistical technique that can be used to predict
future trends from time

series data (e. g., monthly or yearly data on past activity). 3

Confidence intervals can measure one aspect of the quality of forecasting
models.

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

19

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

Recommendation 3b:

AOC should reduce the subjectivity of the long- range planning process by
(1) eliminating the use of arbitrarily selected regression

models and (2) verifying the information provided by local representatives.

Status: Fully Implemented

? AOC implemented part (1) of this recommendation by instituting ARIMA
modeling.

? Concerning part (2) of this recommendation, AOC

? compares the personnel projections provided by local representatives to
its own statistical data and

? when large deviations occur,

? discusses the data with the districts and

? attempts to help districts develop improved predictions.

? However, the districts finalize the projections based on their own
knowledge and understanding of local conditions.

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

20

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

Recommendation 3c:

AOC should limit the time span covered by the projections to 10 years.

Status: Fully Implemented

? AOC provides GSA with project proposals that are based on 10 year space
requirements.

? The proposals also include 30- year staff projections, which are used for
site selection.

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

21

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

Results of EY's Study

? In May 2000, EY published its study on AOC's Space and Facilities Program,
which included a review of the long- range planning

process.

? EY reported that the process was “essentially sound” but could
be improved.

? Some of EY's recommendations related to the issues that we identified as
possibly meriting further inquiry. Among other things,

EY recommended that AOC should

? use more advanced forecasting techniques,

? improve its use of cluster analysis or replace it with an alternative
statistical technique, and

? establish a more structured approach to obtaining input from knowledgeable
district representatives.

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

22

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

AOC Plans to Improve the Long- Range Planning Process

? AOC is currently working to implement other improvements to the long-
range planning process. For example, AOC stated that it is

? evaluating advanced techniques designed to reduce the error margins in
forecasting caseloads and

? exploring different ways to apply cluster analysis.

? Furthermore, the judiciary is considering the reinstatement of site
visits.

? AOC said that it will need at least 6 months to implement these new
improvements.

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

23

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

Issues That Could Merit Further Inquiry

?

Issue 1

. Why are some districts not updating their plans, and what effect does this
have on AOC's long- range planning? (Related to

Recommendation 1a)

?

Issue 2.

Does AOC's cluster analysis, as implemented, provide a reasonable basis for
developing personnel projections from

workload forecasts? (Related to Recommendation 1b)

?

Issue 3

. Do opportunities exist for AOC to further improve workload forecasting
techniques? (Related to Recommendation

3a)

?

Issue 4

. To what extent do the districts' final space projections differ from AOC's
suggested projections? (Related to

Recommendation 3b)

Enclosure I Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

24

GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

AOC's Comments and Our Response

? On December 8, 2000, we briefed AOC.

? AOC generally agreed with our findings.

? AOC stated that the judiciary is considering actions to address the only
recommendation that has not been fully implemented.

? The reinstatement of site visits is being considered so more consistent
updating of the district plans can occur.

? As a result of our discussions with AOC and the information it provided,
we made some

? technical corrections and

? clarifications.

Enclosure II Federal Judiciary Space: Update on Improvement of the Long-
Range Planning Process

25 GAO- 01- 308R Long- Range Planning for Federal Judiciary Space

(393006)

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