Budget Issues: Fiscal Year 1993 Budget Estimates and Actual Results
(Letter Report, 02/04/94, GAO/AIMD-94-68).

This report compares the Office of Management and Budget's (OMB)
original and revised estimates of the deficit, outlays, receipts, and
economic conditions with the actual fiscal year 1993 results. GAO (1)
identifies reasons for the major difference between OMB's original
estimates and actual results; (2) assesses whether patterns of
estimating problems are discernable; and (3) includes, for comparison
purposes, the recent estimates reported by the Congressional Budget
Office (CBO).  Excluding deposit insurance, OMB's estimate of the budget
deficit for fiscal year 1993 tracked closely to the final adjusted
deficit.  The budget estimation process is, however, unlikely to become
any easier given upcoming tax changes and the proposals for health care
and welfare reform. Although the fiscal year 1993 budget deficit was the
lowest in three years, it still added more than $250 billion to the
nation's debt; in fiscal year 1993, interest payments on this borrowing
totaled another $293 billion.  CBO projects that the deficit will shrink
to $166 million in fiscal year 1996 but will turn upward at the end of
the decade unless additional action is taken.  In GAO's view, now is the
time--while the economy is growing and the deficit is not--to adopt
policies to put the deficit on a downward path.

--------------------------- Indexing Terms -----------------------------

 REPORTNUM:  AIMD-94-68
     TITLE:  Budget Issues: Fiscal Year 1993 Budget Estimates and Actual 
             Results
      DATE:  02/04/94
   SUBJECT:  Budget deficit
             Deficit reduction
             Budget outlays
             Trust funds
             Budget receipts
             Budget administration
             Fiscal policies
             Macroeconomic analysis
             Future budget projections
             Balanced budgets
IDENTIFIER:  Medicaid Program
             Medicare Program
             OMB Budget Preparation System
             Bank Insurance Fund
             FSLIC Resolution Fund
             Savings Association Insurance Fund
             Defense Business Operations Fund
             Unemployment Insurance Trust Fund
             Supplemental Security Income Program
             BIF
             SAIF
             
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Cover
================================================================ COVER


Report to the Chairman
House Committee on the Budget

February 1994

BUDGET ISSUES - FISCAL YEAR 1993
BUDGET ESTIMATES AND ACTUAL
RESULTS

GAO/AIMD-94-68

Budget Estimates


Abbreviations
=============================================================== ABBREV

  BIF - Bank Insurance Fund
  BPS - Budget Preparation System
  CBO - Congressional Budget Office
  DBOF - Defense Business Operations Fund
  DOD - Department of Defense
  DI - Disability Insurance
  EPA - Environmental Protection Agency
  FDIC - Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
  FRF - Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation Resolution
     Fund
  GSA - General Services Administration
  HCFA - Health Care Financing Administration
  HHS - Department of Health and Human Services
  HUD - Department of Housing and Urban Development
  HI - Hospital Insurance
  MVPS - Medicare Volume Performance Standard
  MTS - Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the
     United States Government
  NASA - National Aeronautics and Space Administration
  OMB - Office of Management and Budget
  OPM - Office of Personnel Management
  OASI - Old Age and Survivors' Insurance
  RDT&E - research, development, test, and evaluation
  RRB - Railroad Retirement Board
  RTC - Resolution Trust Corporation
  S&E - salaries and expenses
  SAIF - Savings Association Insurance Fund
  SNFs - skilled nursing facilities

Letter
=============================================================== LETTER


B-256129

February 4, 1994

The Honorable Martin Olav Sabo
Chairman, Committee on the Budget
House of Representatives

Dear Mr.  Chairman: 

This report responds to your request that we compare the Office of
Management and Budget's (OMB) original and revised estimates of the
deficit, outlays, receipts, and economic conditions with the actual
fiscal year 1993 results.  Specifically, you asked that we (1)
identify reasons for major differences between OMB's original
estimates and actual results, (2) assess whether patterns of
estimating problems are discernable, and (3) include, for comparison
purposes, the receipt estimates reported by the Congressional Budget
Office (CBO). 

We share your conviction that an increased understanding of the
factors that affect estimates of outlays and receipts is important to
both sound financial management and to the credibility of efforts to
reduce the federal deficit.  To that end, this report, the third in a
series of annual reports,\1 highlights factors that have led to large
differences between budget estimates and actual results.  This is
also the second year in which we examine account-level budget
estimates.  This analysis, which we plan to continue in future years,
highlights components of the budget that are persistently difficult
to estimate and that would be priority targets for financial
management reform. 


--------------------
\1 Budget Issues:  A Comparison of Fiscal Year 1992 Budget Estimates
and Actual Results (GAO/AFMD-93-51, February 12, 1993) and Budget
Issues:  1991 Budget Estimates:  What Went Wrong (GAO/OCG-92-1,
January 15, 1992). 


   RESULTS IN BRIEF
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :1

The $254.9 billion federal budget deficit for fiscal year 1993 was
the government's lowest since fiscal year 1990 and represented 4
percent of gross domestic product.  This result contrasts sharply
with OMB's original (February 1992) fiscal year 1993 estimate of
$349.9 billion.  The $95 billion improvement over OMB's estimate of
20 months earlier was primarily a function of lower-than-anticipated
outlays for deposit insurance programs.  Overall, outlays were $107.2
billion lower and receipts $12.2 billion lower than the original
estimates. 

The original outlay estimate for deposit insurance was $75.7 billion. 
However, the deposit insurance programs resulted in $28 billion in
net receipts (negative outlays).  This meant that actual outlays were
$103.7 billion lower than OMB's original estimate.  This sharp
difference reflects (1) the improved health of the banking and thrift
industries as a result of higher earnings due to low interest rates
and improved economic conditions and (2) the delay in providing
appropriations for the Resolution Trust Corporation to close or merge
institutions. 

Excluding deposit insurance from OMB's original estimate and the
actual deficit, the adjusted estimate would have been $274.2 billion,
which was only 3.2 percent below the comparably adjusted deficit of
$282.9 billion.  Although the original deficit estimate without
deposit insurance outlays was close to the adjusted final result,
offsetting differences between original estimates and actual results
occurred in several components of the budget.  On the outlay side,
Medicaid outlays were lower than originally estimated, but the
difference was partially offset by higher-than- anticipated outlays
for Medicare.  On the revenue side, lower-than-
estimated receipts from individual and social insurance taxes and
contributions were partially offset by higher-than-estimated
corporate income tax receipts. 

Actual economic conditions that differed from OMB's original
assumptions also contributed to offsetting differences between budget
estimates and actual results.  Higher-than-expected unemployment and
slightly slower-than-anticipated economic growth increased outlays
for unemployment benefits, while the steep decline in interest rates
reduced net interest outlays.  Lower-than-expected inflation also
reduced actual receipts. 

In examining patterns of estimation variations at the account level
for fiscal years 1992 and 1993, estimation difficulties were
discernable primarily for mandatory programs.  During this period,
outlays for mandatory programs experienced the largest changes
between the revised estimates made midway through each fiscal year
and actual results.  The average change for mandatory spending
accounts, measured as a percent of the revised outlay estimate, was
more than twice as large as the average change for discretionary
spending accounts. 


   BACKGROUND
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :2

On October 28, 1993, the Department of the Treasury released the
Final Monthly Treasury Statement of Receipts and Outlays of the
United States Government (MTS) for fiscal year 1993, which reported a
$254.9 billion deficit for the year.  The President's budget request
for fiscal year 1993,\2 transmitted to the Congress in January and
February 1992, presented detailed estimates of receipts and outlays
and a total deficit estimate of $349.9 billion.  As part of the
President's fiscal year 1994 budget request submitted to the Congress
in April 1993, OMB revised its fiscal year 1993 estimates to show a
$322 billion deficit.\3 Throughout this report, we will refer to the
fiscal year 1993 estimates in the January/February 1992 and April
1993 budget requests as OMB's original and revised estimates,
respectively. 


--------------------
\2 Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1993, January
1992 and Supplement, February 1992, Executive Office of the
President, Office of Management and Budget. 

\3 Budget of the United States Government, Fiscal Year 1994, April
1993, Executive Office of the President, Office of Management and
Budget. 


   SCOPE AND METHODOLOGY
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :3

To identify large differences between original fiscal year 1993
estimates and actual results, we compared OMB's estimates to actual
results both in the aggregate and on an account-level basis. 

For analysis on an aggregate basis, we used OMB's original and
revised estimates of total outlays, receipts, and the resulting
deficits as reported in the President's budget requests for fiscal
years 1993 and 1994.  We compared these estimates with the fiscal
year 1993 results published in the Department of the Treasury's final
MTS. 

For detailed analysis of receipts, we focused on the Department of
the Treasury's estimates for seven "receipt source" categories
contained in the President's budget requests and Treasury's final
MTS.  We reviewed more detailed estimates of individual, corporate,
and social insurance receipts obtained from Treasury and the Social
Security Administration.  We obtained CBO's original (January 1992)
and revised (January 1993) receipt estimates, which are included in
table 6,\4 from its reports.\5

To analyze OMB's estimates of economic conditions, we compared its
macroeconomic projections for calendar year 1993 to those of CBO and
the Blue Chip consensus of private forecasters.\6 Appendix III
displays these forecasts and the actual data. 

For analysis of outlays on an account-level basis, we obtained data
from OMB's Budget Preparation System (BPS)--the automated system used
to collect and process information for the President's budget
request.  Using these data, we identified the 182 accounts that
together represented 95 percent of OMB's revised estimate of gross
outlays.  For each account, we compared OMB's original and revised
net outlay estimates to the actual outlay data obtained from
Treasury.\7 Appendix I displays the estimates and actual outlays for
the 182 accounts.  Throughout this report, in the tables as well as
the narrative, account-level detail may not add to totals because
calculations were performed prior to rounding. 

To determine the factors that contributed to variations between
original estimates and actual results, we interviewed OMB budget
examiners and agency officials.  We also reviewed the economic
assumptions, policy proposals, and program information contained in
the President's budget requests for fiscal years 1993 and 1994 and
the midsession budget updates released in July 1992 and September
1993. 

To assess whether patterns of estimating problems were discernable,
we analyzed differences between the revised estimates and the actual
results for fiscal years 1992 and 1993.  We focused our analysis on
this comparison to highlight estimation difficulties and minimize
differences due to (1) unenacted presidential proposals contained in
the original estimates and (2) enacted congressional initiatives not
assumed in the original estimates.  Appendix II lists major budget
accounts for which actual outlays differed by more than (1) 10
percent and (2) $250 million from the revised estimates in both
fiscal year 1992 and fiscal year 1993. 

We did not attempt to audit the data discussed in this report which
were obtained from the President's budget requests, the final MTS, or
agency officials.  We conducted our work from October 1993 to
December 1993. 


--------------------
\4 The original request letter refers to the Joint Committee on
Taxation's receipt estimates reported by CBO.  However, CBO develops
its own estimates for receipts under the law as it stands at the time
of the estimate.  The Joint Committee on Taxation only estimates the
revenue impact of changes or proposed changes in law.  Such estimates
are not comparable to the OMB receipt estimates and actual receipt
data included in this report.  Thus, we included only the CBO
estimates, which are comparable. 

\5 The Economic and Budget Outlook:  Fiscal Years 1993-1997, January
1992 and The Economic and Budget Outlook:  Fiscal Years 1994-1998,
January 1993, the Congress of the United States, Congressional Budget
Office. 

\6 Eggert Economic Enterprises, Inc., publishes monthly the Blue Chip
Economic Indicators, a summary of major private sector estimates. 

\7 This methodology is similar to that used in our February 1993
report. 


   DECLINE IN DEFICIT NOT FORECAST
   BY OMB
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :4

The fiscal year 1993 deficit of $254.9 billion reversed a 3-year
trend in the growth of annual deficits.  The $35.3 billion drop from
the 1992 deficit level of $290.2 billion was the largest single-year
decline since 1987.  Aside from the positive development in deposit
insurance, which was the major factor in the lower deficit, there
were other positive trends.  Nondeposit insurance outlays grew at a
slower rate (4.2 percent) than receipts, which were up 5.7 percent
over the fiscal year 1992 level. 



                           Table 1
           
           Fiscal Year 1993 Aggregate Estimates and
                        Actual Results

                    (Dollars in billions)


                                            Actual   Percent
            Original   Revised               minus        of
            estimate  estimate    Actual  original  original
----------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
Receipts    $1,165.4  $1,145.7  $1,153.2    $-12.2      -1.0
Outlays      1,515.3   1,467.6   1,408.1    -107.2      -7.1
============================================================
Deficit       $349.9    $322.0    $254.9    $-95.0     -27.1
------------------------------------------------------------
Note:  Detail may not add to totals due to rounding. 

Sources:  Office of Management and Budget and Department of the
Treasury. 

As table 1 shows, the final deficit was $95 billion below OMB's
original $349.9 billion estimate for fiscal year 1993.  A $103.7
billion difference between the original estimate and actual outlays
for deposit insurance was by far the largest change affecting the
deficit estimates.  Excluding deposit insurance, OMB's original
deficit estimate would have been $274.2 billion which closely tracked
with the adjusted $282.9 billion deficit, as shown in table 2.  The
revised deficit estimate in table 2 included the President's proposed
economic stimulus plan which was not approved by the Congress.  In
addition, the revised estimate reflected lower social insurance
receipts and higher outlays for unemployment benefits and disaster
relief.  These increases to the deficit were offset by changes in
other components after the revised estimate had been made and are
discussed in following sections. 



                           Table 2
           
           Fiscal Year 1993 Aggregate Estimates and
              Actual Results, Excluding Deposit
                          Insurance

                    (Dollars in billions)


                                            Actual   Percent
            Original   Revised  Adjusted     minus        of
            estimate  estimate    actual  original  original
----------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
Receipts    $1,165.4  $1,145.7  $1,153.2    $-12.2      -1.0
Outlays      1,439.6   1,464.8   1,436.1      -3.5      -0.2
============================================================
Deficit       $274.2    $319.1    $282.9      $8.7       3.2
------------------------------------------------------------
Note:  Detail may not add to totals due to rounding. 

Sources:  Office of Management and Budget, Department of the
Treasury, and Congressional Budget Office. 


   OUTLAYS WERE LOWER THAN
   ORIGINALLY ESTIMATED PRIMARILY
   DUE TO DEPOSIT INSURANCE
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :5

As table 3 shows, actual fiscal year 1993 outlays of $1,408.1 billion
were more than $107 billion lower than originally estimated.  Nearly
97 percent of the net reduction from the original estimate was due to
the difference between estimated and actual outlays for deposit
insurance activities.  Excluding outlays for deposit insurance, total
spending was lower than the original estimate by $3.5 billion or 0.2
percent.  However, as shown in appendix I and summarized below, large
but offsetting differences between estimated and actual outlays were
observed in other areas of the budget. 



                           Table 3
           
           Outlay Estimates and Actual Results for
                       Fiscal Year 1993

                    (Dollars in billions)


                     Origina                    Actua  Perce
                           l  Revised               l     nt
                      outlay   outlay           minus     of
Budget Enforcement   estimat  estimat   Actual  origi  origi
Act category               e        e  outlays    nal    nal
-------------------  -------  -------  -------  -----  -----
Discretionary         $537.3   $553.7   $544.3   $7.0    1.3
National defense       292.0    292.1    292.5    0.5    0.2
International           20.6     21.9     21.6    1.0    4.7
Domestic               224.7    239.7    230.3    5.6    2.5
Mandatory              804.5    749.7    702.2      -      -
                                                102.3   12.7
Social Security        299.7    302.2    302.0    2.3    0.8
Deposit insurance       75.7      2.8    -28.0      -      -
                                                103.7  137.0
Medicaid\a              84.5     80.5     75.8   -8.7      -
                                                        10.3
Medicare               126.5    129.8    127.8    1.3    1.1
Unemployment            25.5     35.9     35.4    9.9   38.6
 compensation
Other                  192.6    198.5    189.3   -3.3   -1.7
Net interest           213.7    201.5    198.9      -   -6.9
                                                 14.8
Undistributed         40.1 -   37.2 -   37.4 2   .7 <  b>6.8
 offsetting -
 receipts\b
============================================================
Total $              1,515.3  1,467.6  $1,408.     $-   -7.1
                           $                 1  107.2
============================================================
Total excluding      1,439.6  1,464.8  $1,436.     $-   -0.2
 deposit $                 $                 1    3.5
 insurance
------------------------------------------------------------
\a The original outlay estimate excludes approximately $100 million
in proposed offsetting collections which were categorized as domestic
discretionary. 

\b Undistributed offsetting receipts, primarily the employer share of
employee retirement payments and rents and royalties on the Outer
Continental Shelf, are deducted from totals for the government as a
whole to avoid distortion of subtotals. 

Note:  Detail may not add to totals due to rounding. 

Sources:  Office of Management and Budget, Congressional Budget
Office, and Department of the Treasury. 


      IMPROVED HEALTH OF THE BANK
      AND THRIFT INDUSTRIES
      SHARPLY REDUCED OUTLAYS FOR
      DEPOSIT INSURANCE
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :5.1

Outlays for deposit insurance programs were by far the most difficult
component of the budget to estimate in fiscal year 1993, continuing a
pattern observed in fiscal years 1991 and 1992.  Actual results were
negative outlays (net receipts) of $28.0 billion, a change of $103.7
billion from the original estimate of $75.7 billion in outlays. 
Approximately two-thirds of this change resulted from improvement in
the profitability of the banking and thrift industries due to
favorable economic conditions.  Most of the remaining change was due
to the delay in providing appropriations to complete the savings and
loan cleanup.  As table 4 shows, there were large variations in both
the Resolution Trust Corporation's (RTC) revolving fund and the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation's (FDIC) Bank Insurance Fund
(BIF).  The Federal Savings and Loan Insurance Corporation Resolution
Fund (FRF) experienced a smaller but still significant variation. 

Resolution of insolvent thrifts and banks, which involves selling the
assets of failed institutions and settling all claims including the
deposit guarantees of insured customers, is handled by two federal
agencies--RTC and FDIC.  The Financial Institutions Reform, Recovery,
and Enforcement Act of 1989 established RTC as a temporary agency
charged with bailing out the thrift industry.  Since February 1989,
thrift resolutions have been funded through the RTC's revolving fund. 
FDIC administers the other bank and thrift deposit insurance
activities through (1) BIF for banks, (2) FRF for resolution
commitments stemming from thrifts which failed before RTC was
established, and (3) the Savings Association Insurance Fund (SAIF),
which is scheduled to take over the resolution of failed thrifts from
RTC in the first half of 1995.\8



                           Table 4
           
            Deposit Insurance Estimates and Actual
                 Results for Fiscal Year 1993

                    (Dollars in billions)


Deposit                                     Actual   Percent
insurance   Original   Revised               minus        of
component   estimate  estimate    Actual  original  original
----------  --------  --------  --------  --------  --------
RTC            $32.5     $-3.9    $-19.2    $-51.7    -159.0
BIF             38.0       4.0      -9.8     -47.9    -125.8
FRF              6.4       3.8       2.4      -4.0     -63.0
Other           -1.2      -1.1      -1.3      -0.1      -7.4
============================================================
Total          $75.7      $2.8    $-28.0   $-103.7    -137.0
------------------------------------------------------------
Note:  Detail may not add to totals due to rounding. 

Sources:  Office of Management and Budget and Congressional Budget
Office. 


--------------------
\8 The RTC Completion Act of 1993 extended RTC's resolution authority
to at least January 1, 1995, and no later than July 1, 1995.  The act
authorized the Chairman of the Thrift Deposit Protection Board to
determine the specific date within this 6-month period. 


         RESOLUTION TRUST
         CORPORATION
-------------------------------------------------------- Letter :5.1.1

RTC outlays were $51.7 billion lower than originally estimated by
OMB.  Rather than spending $32.5 billion, RTC netted $19.2 billion
from asset sales.  The large change from the original estimate to the
actual was a function of the (1) lack of available funding for the
savings and loan cleanup and (2) improving financial condition of the
thrift industry.  We estimate that approximately half of the change
was attributable to the delayed funding, although estimates range
from $15 billion to $32 billion. 

RTC relies on appropriations from the Congress to cover the losses
incurred in resolving failed thrifts.  The Congress did not
appropriate any new funds for RTC between December 1991 and the end
of fiscal year 1993, even though it received requests for additional
funding from both the Bush and Clinton administrations.  Although
this lack of funding restricted RTC's ability to resolve insolvent
thrifts during fiscal year 1993,\9 RTC continued to sell off its
inventory of failed thrift assets.  However, RTC cannot use the
proceeds of asset sales to resolve failed thrifts until it first
repays all funds borrowed from the Federal Financing Bank (part of
Treasury).  Sale proceeds exceeded expenditures on resolution
activities for the fiscal year, producing the negative outlay
condition or net receipts in the account. 

Favorable economic conditions, particularly lower interest rates,
also contributed to lower-than-estimated RTC outlays.  First, lower
interest rates improve the profitability of thrifts by allowing them
to lower the average interest rates paid to depositors but to
maintain higher average interest rates on loans.  This improvement in
profitability during fiscal year 1993 resulted in fewer thrift
failures than originally estimated.  Second, generally improved
economic conditions have reduced RTC's losses on thrift resolutions
and increased rates of recovery on sales of failed thrift assets. 

The improved financial position of the thrift industry has lowered
projections for the remaining cost of the cleanup.  Between January
1992 and September 1993, OMB reduced its estimate of funds required
for thrift resolutions by about $23 billion for 1992 through 1997. 
However, the overall cost of the bailout would have been even lower
if funding had been provided in a timely manner because insolvent
thrifts continued to operate and lose money.  In November 1993, the
Congress made up to $18.3 billion available for RTC and authorized $8
billion for SAIF.\10


--------------------
\9 The availability of the loss funds appropriated in December 1991
ended on March 31, 1992.  RTC was able to resolve 23 thrifts during
fiscal year 1993 with funds that had previously been reserved to
cover losses, when its loss estimates for earlier closures proved to
be too high.  However, at the end of fiscal year 1993, RTC had a
backlog of 68 institutions--only one less than a year earlier. 

\10 In December 1991, the Congress had appropriated up to $25 billion
for RTC, to be available until April 1, 1992.  During this period,
RTC used only $6.7 billion.  The RTC Completion Act of 1993 repealed
the April 1, 1992, cutoff date, thus making the remaining $18.3
billion available for RTC. 


         BANK INSURANCE FUND
-------------------------------------------------------- Letter :5.1.2

Actual outlays for BIF were -$9.8 billion, nearly $48 billion lower
than the original estimate of $38.0 billion.  This difference
resulted primarily from favorable economic conditions.  Declining
interest rates boosted bank profits and reduced the number of
estimated bank failures.  The original estimate of failed bank assets
for fiscal year 1993 was reduced from $110.5 billion to $28.5 billion
in September 1993.  FDIC reported in December that in the first 9
months of 1993, bank earnings were $32.6 billion, slightly exceeding
the $32.1 billion record earnings posted during all of 1992. 

Premiums collected from banks, the primary financing source for BIF,
exceeded expenditures for losses associated with resolving failed
banks during fiscal year 1993.  This excess, along with proceeds from
the sale of failed bank assets, produced the negative outlay
condition or net receipts in the account.  At the beginning of
calendar year 1993, BIF changed its premium rate structure from a
flat system in which all banks paid the same rate to a risk-based
system.  Banks that are financially sound now pay lower premiums than
banks in poor condition.  Since the adoption of this structure, the
average level of assessed premiums has dropped, reflecting the
improved condition of the industry.  In addition, FDIC was able to
pay back all borrowed Federal Financing Bank funds previously used to
acquire the assets of failed banks. 


         FEDERAL SAVINGS AND LOAN
         INSURANCE CORPORATION
         RESOLUTION FUND
-------------------------------------------------------- Letter :5.1.3

Actual outlays for FRF were $4 billion (63 percent) lower than the
original estimate of $6.4 billion.  FRF's costs for renegotiating
agreements from thrift resolutions completed before RTC was created
proved to be lower than initial projections.  However, at least $700
million of the decline represents a shift in outlays to fiscal year
1994 rather than a real reduction in the cost of these agreements. 


      ESTIMATING SPENDING FOR
      HEALTH PROGRAMS REMAINS
      DIFFICULT
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :5.2

Outlays for the two largest health programs, Medicare and Medicaid,
continued to grow during fiscal year 1993 but more slowly than in
recent years.  However, the program components experienced
significant but mostly offsetting changes from the original estimates
to actual outlays.  The recent trend of higher-than-estimated actual
outlays for Medicaid was reversed in fiscal year 1993 with outlays
that were $8.6 billion (10.2 percent) lower than the original
estimate of $84.4 billion.  This change was partially offset by
slightly higher-than-estimated ($1.2 billion) outlays for Medicare. 
Although total Medicare spending exceeded the original estimate of
$144.7 billion by only $1.2 billion (less than 1 percent), this
narrow margin masked larger offsetting differences between the
original estimate and actual outlays for the two Medicare components. 
Outlays for the Hospital Insurance component--Medicare Part A\11
--exceeded the original estimate by $8.0 billion (9.7 percent).  This
difference was largely offset by the $6.8 billion (11.1 percent)
lower-than-estimated outlays for Medicare Part B\12 --the
Supplementary Medical Insurance component. 


--------------------
\11 Medicare Part A funds hospital or related care for the elderly
and disabled. 

\12 Medicare Part B covers expenses for physicians and other medical
services.  Persons eligible for
Part A may purchase Part B. 


         MEDICAID
-------------------------------------------------------- Letter :5.2.1

Difficulty in anticipating state behavior was a key factor in the
difference between the original Medicaid estimate and actual outlays. 
In particular, uncertainty in estimating the impact of the Medicaid
Voluntary Contribution and Provider-Specific Tax Amendments of 1991
(Public Law 102-234)--which sought to limit recent state actions to
unilaterally increase the federal government's share of program
cost--was cited by OMB and the Health Care Financing Administration
(HCFA) as a major factor for lower-than-estimated outlays for
Medicaid.  Enactment of the legislation coincided with the
development of the original Medicaid budget estimate.  In developing
this estimate, HCFA did not assume the legislation would dramatically
change spending trends.  Final results indicate that state behavior
was different than that assumed by HCFA, resulting in
lower-than-expected outlays. 

HCFA's revised estimate also did not assume a significant change in
the trend in Medicaid spending.  Due to the unusually late
preparation of the fiscal year 1994 budget, HCFA had available
several months of actual state claims for federal Medicaid funds when
it prepared the revised fiscal year 1993 estimates.  These claims
were lower than assumed in the original estimate, leading HCFA to
revise its estimate downward by 4.6 percent.  However, HCFA indicated
that it was reluctant to base its outlay estimates entirely on an
extrapolation of these data.  HCFA's caution may be attributed to its
awareness of the previous rapid growth in Medicaid spending, a
recognition that program spending had been underestimated in recent
years, and uncertainty about the effectiveness of the new
legislation. 


         MEDICARE
-------------------------------------------------------- Letter :5.2.2

As in recent years, payments to hospitals for Medicare Part A were
underestimated.  The increase over the original estimate of Medicare
Part A outlays was primarily due to unanticipated growth in the use
of skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) and home health care services. 
SNF outlays of $5.3 billion were nearly double the original estimate
of $2.9 billion.  At the time the original estimate was developed,
growth in expenditures for SNFs was at its lowest since 1989. 
However, the program experienced rapid growth in 1992, which
continued throughout 1993.  OMB attributes the continued growth in
the use of SNFs to increased awareness of the existing skilled
nursing care benefit resulting from the enactment and subsequent
repeal of the Medicare Catastrophic Coverage Act of 1988, which
contained provisions expanding some of the program's benefits. 
Although spending levels initially decreased with the repeal of the
act, new awareness of the existing benefit continues to contribute to
the program's growth. 

The other primary factor affecting Medicare Part A outlays was home
health care expenditures of $9.5 billion, which exceeded the original
estimate by $2.6 billion.  Expenditures for home health care services
began to grow rapidly in 1989.  However, the original estimate
assumed that after 2 years of rapid growth, the rate of program
expenditure growth would slow.  As with skilled nursing facilities,
underestimation of the program's growth resulted in
higher-than-anticipated outlays.  OMB attributes the unanticipated
pace of growth in home health care to expanded coverage resulting
from the out-of-court settlement of a 1989 lawsuit against HCFA.\13
As part of the settlement, certain guidelines in the Medicare
provider manual were rewritten to significantly expand coverage of
services.  These revisions allowed home health care providers to
increase the number of home visits and made it more difficult to deny
benefit claims.  However, the impact of these changes was not
factored into the original estimate.  HCFA expects that growth in
home health service use due to these changes will slow in fiscal year
1995 but that total spending will remain at an elevated level. 

Unanticipated reductions in the volume of services performed by
physicians in response to new reimbursement methods for Medicare
Part B resulted in an original estimate that was $6.8 billion higher
than actual spending.  The changes to the reimbursement schedule
implemented in January 1992 were part of the 1989 legislated overhaul
of the program's payment system.  The reforms included the
development of a nationwide fee schedule and volume standards. 
Payment was changed from the previous reasonable charge reimbursement
system to a resource-based relative value scale system that reflects
the time and intensity of physician services, overhead expenses, and
geographic cost differences.  In addition, the new system developed a
mechanism for updating annually the physician fee schedule based on
actual performance against a predetermined volume standard--the
Medicare volume performance standard (MVPS).  The MVPS is a
prospectively set target for annual growth of physician services,
which was designed to prevent physicians from making up for a
reduction in fees by increasing the volume of services they provide. 
Despite attempts to account for changes in physician behavior,
lower-than-anticipated increases in the volume of services resulted
in lower-than-expected outlays. 


--------------------
\13 Duggan v.  Sullivan, United States District Court for the
District of Columbia, Civil Action 87-0383-SS. 


      OTHER SIGNIFICANT BUT
      OFFSETTING OUTLAY VARIATIONS
---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :5.3

Components of the budget sensitive to fluctuations in economic
conditions experienced large outlay variations from their original
fiscal year 1993 estimates.  Persistently
higher-than-originally-forecast unemployment levels pushed outlays
for unemployment insurance benefits $10.6 billion higher than the
original estimate of $29.1 billion.  Economic growth expected to be
slower-than-originally-forecast also spurred the Congress and the
President to extend the length of time individuals could collect
unemployment benefits.  In contrast, actual outlays for interest on
the public debt of $292.5 billion were $23.3 billion lower than the
original estimate.  Approximately $13.6 billion of this decline was
due to lower interest rates.  The remainder was due to
lower-than-originally-expected borrowing; this was at least partially
due to reduced outlays for deposit insurance resulting from lower
interest rates. 

Although total outlays for the Department of Defense (DOD) were only
$0.5 billion above the original estimate of $278.1 billion, seven
DOD-Military accounts differed from their original estimate by over
$1 billion.  Weaknesses in DOD's financial management capabilities
contributed to the large outlay variations from original estimates in
several accounts.  The largest difference occurred in the Defense
Business Operations Fund (DBOF), which showed a year-end balance of
$4.9 billion compared to the original estimate of $0.6 billion.  As
we have previously reported,\14 accurate estimates for DBOF are
difficult to develop because DOD lacks effective cash management
practices and cost accounting systems.  Further complicating
estimates is the newness of the fund, which was only established in
fiscal year 1992. 

Weaknesses in DOD's cash management practices and systems also
contributed to differences between original estimates and actual
outlays for accounts with operational ties to DBOF.  For example, the
Army, Navy, and Air Force operation and maintenance accounts used to
purchase goods and services through DBOF each exceeded its original
estimate by more than $2 billion.  One contributing factor was the
advance billing by maintenance and selected research and development
activities between June and August of 1993 for $5.7 billion in goods
and services.  This advance billing was initiated to avoid a
projected cash shortage in DBOF.  Lastly, differences between outlay
estimates and final results are not unusual for DOD-Military
accounts.  Reprogramming agreements between congressional committees
and DOD allow the shifting of funds within appropriations, and
transfer authority, which has routinely been provided by the
Congress, allows the shifting of funds between appropriations. 


--------------------
\14 For a discussion of DOD's efforts to improve the operation of
DBOF and a list of related GAO reports see Defense Business
Operations Fund (GAO/AIMD-94-7R, October 12, 1993). 


   TOTAL RECEIPTS WERE CLOSE TO
   ESTIMATE WITH OFFSETTING
   DIFFERENCES
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :6

Actual receipts for fiscal year 1993 were $1,153.2 billion--only 1
percent less than the original estimate.  This result represented a
significant improvement over fiscal years 1991 and 1992, in which
receipts fell short of the original estimates by an average of 7.6
percent.  However, as summarized in table 5, the slight difference in
fiscal year 1993 masked larger offsetting estimate variations within
and among major receipt categories.\15 Overall, receipt estimates
were affected by discretion that individual and corporate taxpayers
have in determining the timing of certain types of tax liabilities. 
Specifically, social insurance receipts were 4.1 percent lower than
the original estimate, while corporate tax receipts were 13.2 percent
higher than projected.  Individual income taxes and miscellaneous
receipts were, respectively, 1.1 percent and 12.1 percent below the
original estimates.  These results are summarized in table 5.  For
comparison, CBO's estimates are shown in table 6. 



                           Table 5
           
           Receipt Estimates and Actual Results for
             Fiscal Year 1993 Prepared by OMB and
                  Department of the Treasury

                    (Dollars in billions)


                                                      Percen
                      Origin  Revise          Actual       t
                          al       d           minus      of
                      estima  estima          origin  origin
Receipt source            te      te  Actual      al      al
--------------------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------
Individual
 income taxes         $515.2  $515.3  $509.7   $-5.5    -1.1
Corporate
 income taxes          103.8   106.3   117.5    13.7    13.2
Social insurance
 taxes and             446.7   426.8   428.3   -18.4    -4.1
 contributions
Excise taxes            48.1    47.6    48.1     0.0     0.1
Estate and
 gift taxes             12.9    12.6    12.6    -0.3    -2.3
Customs duties          18.0    19.2    18.8     0.8     4.7
Miscellaneous
 receipts               20.7    17.9    18.2    -2.5   -12.0
============================================================
Total                 $1,165  $1,145  $1,153      $-    -1.0
                          .4      .7      .2    12.2
------------------------------------------------------------
Note:  Detail may not add to totals due to rounding. 

Sources:  Office of Management and Budget and Department of the
Treasury. 



                           Table 6
           
           CBO Receipt Estimates and Actual Results
                     for Fiscal Year 1993

                    (Dollars in billions)


                                                      Percen
                      Origin  Revise          Actual       t
                          al       d           minus      of
                      estima  estima          origin  origin
Receipt source            te      te  Actual      al      al
--------------------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------
Individual
 income taxes           $518    $501  $509.7   $-8.3    -1.6
Corporate
 income taxes            109     110   117.5     8.5     7.8
Social insurance
 taxes and               449     434   428.3   -20.7    -4.6
 contributions
Excise taxes              49      48    48.1    -0.9    -1.9
Estate and
 gift taxes               12      12    12.6     0.6     4.8
Customs duties            18      19    18.8     0.8     4.5
Miscellaneous
 receipts                 23      19    18.2    -4.8   -20.7
============================================================
Total                 $1,179  $1,143  $1,153      $-    -2.2
                                          .2    25.8
------------------------------------------------------------
Note:  Detail may not add to totals due to rounding. 

Sources:  Congressional Budget Office and Department of the Treasury. 

Actual social insurance receipts fell $18.4 billion short of the
original estimate.  This difference was the net result of changes in
different social insurance funds.  Three funds make up over 90
percent of social insurance receipts:  Old Age and Survivors'
Insurance (OASI), Disability Insurance (DI), and Hospital Insurance
(HI).  The original estimate for these funds was $19.1 billion lower
than actual receipts because of the following factors: 

  lower-than-estimated growth in salary and wage
     income--approximately $10 billion,

  bookkeeping adjustments\16 --$7.5 billion, and

  an unenacted policy proposal to extend Hospital Insurance coverage
     to all state and local government employees--$1.7 billion. 

The $19.1 billion decline in the OASI, DI, and HI receipts was
partially offset by an unexpected repayment of a state loan to the
unemployment insurance fund (another component of social insurance
taxes and contributions), which helped boost actual unemployment
insurance receipts $1.0 billion above the original estimate. 

Corporate receipts exceeded initial projections by $13.7 billion. 
This result contrasts with fiscal years 1991 and 1992, during which
corporate receipts were originally overestimated by $30.5 billion and
$1.6 billion, respectively.  For fiscal year 1993, approximately $7.1
billion of the difference between the original estimate and actual
receipts can be explained by (1) the completion of recent revisions
to the forecasting model,\17 (2) new data on liabilities and
collections, and (3) lower tax refunds than anticipated.  Other
factors contributing to the difference in corporate receipts were

  higher-than-expected payments due to higher corporate profits
     partially offset by other economic factors--about $2 billion,

  enacted legislation that increased estimated payment requirements
     and prevented thrifts from deducting losses reimbursed by
     tax-exempt federal assistance--about $2.5 billion, and

  unenacted policy proposals such as investment tax breaks included
     in the Bush and Clinton budgets--$2 billion. 

Individual income tax receipts were $5.5 billion lower than the
original estimate.  Economic factors including (1) lower inflation,
(2) slightly slower-than-expected economic growth, and (3) a lower
share of income subject to individual income tax caused Treasury to
lower its estimate by $15 billion.  Internal Revenue Service
initiatives making it easier for taxpayers to obtain extensions or
make installment tax payments further reduced the estimate during the
fiscal year by $1.4 billion.  These downward revisions from the
original estimate were partially offset by the following factors: 

  a $7.5 billion transfer from the social insurance accounts
     partially offset by other data revisions--$4 billion,

  an unexpected increase in taxes withheld--about $1.6 billion,

  enacted legislation requiring the withholding of taxes on pension
     income--$1.4 billion, and

  unenacted policy proposals, including a proposal to expand the tax
     exemption for families with children--$3.8 billion. 

Miscellaneous receipts, which are primarily composed of earnings on
Federal Reserve assets, fell $2.5 billion short of the original
estimate.  This difference was primarily due to changes in foreign
exchange rates and the decline in U.S.  interest rates, which reduced
the value and the interest income of the Federal Reserve's foreign
and domestic holdings. 


--------------------
\15 Although we discuss the individual income and social insurance
categories separately, they are interdependent.  The allocation of
receipts between these two categories is affected by periodic
bookkeeping adjustments made to incorporate data from prior years. 
These changes result only in transfers between the two categories and
have no impact on the combined total. 

\16 As noted earlier in footnote 15, these bookkeeping adjustments
have no impact on total receipts. 

\17 These revisions--which were completed after the original estimate
was made--represented the final installment of a multiyear overhaul
of the model, which fully incorporates the effects of the Tax Reform
Act of 1986. 


   OMB'S ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
   CONSISTENT WITH OTHER
   FORECASTERS
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :7

OMB's economic assumptions for 1993 were generally in line with or
more conservative than forecasts developed by CBO and private
forecasters.  Forecasts made in early 1992 were slightly optimistic
regarding economic growth and unemployment and too pessimistic about
inflation and interest rates.  These unanticipated economic
conditions lowered receipts and had a mixed effect on outlays,
lowering them in some programs and increasing them in others. 

The Council of Economic Advisers, with the Department of the Treasury
and OMB, prepares the economic forecast that is used in developing
the President's budget request.  Estimates of major macroeconomic
indicators that affect outlays and receipts are included in the
budget documents.  CBO and private forecasters also develop estimates
of these indicators.  As shown in appendix III, the administration's
macroeconomic projections for calendar year 1993 were generally quite
close to those of CBO and the Blue Chip consensus of private
forecasters.  In fact, in an effort to minimize disagreements between
the legislative and executive branches about the budget estimates,
the administration adopted CBO's economic projections for the revised
fiscal year 1993 estimates. 

During the fiscal year 1993 budget cycle, the performance of the
economy had a mixed impact on the budget.  Economic growth estimates
were revised downward, as the economy continued a
slower-than-expected recovery from the 1990-91 recession.  Original
estimates of the unemployment rate, which generally declines as a
result of economic growth, proved to be overly optimistic.  The
combination of higher-than-expected unemployment, lower-than-expected
inflation, and slightly slower-than-expected economic growth reduced
receipts and increased spending for income support programs. 

Interest rates were also substantially lower than originally
projected.  This reduced the deficit by (1) strengthening the banking
and thrift industries, which resulted in lower outlays for deposit
insurance activities and (2) lowering the cost of financing the
nation's debt.  Inflation, which generally moves in tandem with
interest rates, was also lower than forecast.  Lower inflation
reduced the projected level of taxable income which, in turn, lowered
receipts from the level originally estimated. 

As we noted in our February 1993 report, economic forecasting is an
enormously complex and imprecise process.  The forecasts in appendix
III illustrate the limited capacity of economic models to accurately
predict economic performance.  Because of the sensitivity of budget
outlays and receipts to changes in economic conditions, differences
between economic forecasts and actual conditions are a key factor in
the accuracy of outlay and receipt estimates. 


   DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ESTIMATED
   AND ACTUAL OUTLAYS LARGER FOR
   MANDATORY PROGRAMS
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :8

Our analysis showed that in both fiscal years 1992 and 1993, outlays
for mandatory programs experienced the largest differences between
the revised estimates made midway through the fiscal year and actual
outlays.  This result was not unexpected.  The larger differences
reflect the open-ended aspect of outlays for mandatory programs in
contrast to the specific appropriated amounts which limit outlays for
discretionary programs.  Furthermore, estimates for mandatory
programs are heavily dependent on estimates for other variables such
as economic conditions and demographic characteristics. 

The average difference, measured as a percent of the revised outlay
estimate, for mandatory spending accounts was more than twice as
large as the average difference for discretionary spending accounts. 
Furthermore, in fiscal years 1992 and 1993, approximately 95 percent
of the total difference between revised estimates and actual outlays
in the major budget accounts listed in appendix I occurred in
mandatory spending accounts.  Tables II.1 and II.2 in appendix II
list the major budget accounts for which actual outlays differed by
more than 10 percent and more than $250 million, respectively, from
the revised estimate in both fiscal year 1992 and fiscal year 1993. 
Of the accounts that met these criteria, approximately 60 percent are
for mandatory expenditures. 

Difficulties in estimating outlays for credit reform liquidating
accounts\18 resulted in 9 of these accounts being among the 31
accounts with variations of greater than 10 percent between the
revised estimate and actual outlays.  The years we analyzed--fiscal
years 1992 and 1993--were the first 2 years of credit reform
implementation.  We have reported\19 previously on agency problems in
implementing credit reform due to severe and long-standing financial
systems problems.  Because of economic uncertainties and because
agencies had to rely on information that has historically been
incomplete and unreliable, estimates were inaccurate.  Difficulties
in establishing initial account balances and estimating cash flows
from existing loans and guarantees, along with subsequent adjustments
to the accounts, are reflected in the differences between the revised
estimates and actual outlays. 

Sensitivity to economic conditions is a common characteristic of the
mandatory programs with large dollar variations in fiscal years 1992
and 1993.  Outlays for interest on the public debt were lower than
the revised estimates in both years due to the unforeseen decline in
interest rates.  As previously discussed, the impact of lower
interest rates, as well as the overall improvement in the economy, is
reflected in the large differences between estimated and actual
outlays for the Bank Insurance Fund in both years.  Other accounts
with large dollar variations primarily due to changes in economic
conditions include the Unemployment Trust Fund, the Supplemental
Security Income Program, and two Commodity Credit Corporation
accounts. 

Some discretionary accounts--in which spending levels are specified
by the Congress in appropriation acts--also are prone to differences
between estimates and final results; these differences often are due
to inadequate agency financial and information management systems.\20
The tables in appendix II reveal that the majority of discretionary
spending accounts which had large differences between the revised
estimates and final results in both fiscal years 1992 and 1993 were
defense-related.  As discussed previously, these reflect the
weaknesses in DOD's financial systems combined with the flexibility
given DOD to move funds among accounts. 

Non-DOD outlay estimates are also plagued by inadequate management
information systems.  For example, the Department of Housing and
Urban Development's (HUD) revised estimate of outlays for assistance
for the renewal of expiring Section 8 subsidies was nearly 20 percent
too low in fiscal year 1992 and nearly 20 percent too high in fiscal
year 1993.  HUD currently lacks the financial management and
budgeting systems and data to estimate accurately program funding
needs.  These problems have been well-documented in reports by GAO,
OMB, and HUD.\21 HUD expects new management information systems under
development to produce improved budget estimates no earlier than for
fiscal year 1995. 


--------------------
\18 Liquidating accounts, established by the Federal Credit Reform
Act of 1990, reflect the cash flows to and from the government
resulting from direct loan obligations or loan guarantees made prior
to October 1, 1991. 

\19 Federal Credit Programs:  Agencies Had Serious Problems Meeting
Credit Reform Accounting Requirements (GAO/AFMD-93-17, January 6,
1993). 

\20 For a discussion of financial management weaknesses in federal
agencies, see Financial Management Issues (GAO/OCG-93-4TR, December
1992). 

\21 For a discussion of HUD's difficulties in estimating its Section
8 funding needs and a list of related reports, see Assisted Housing: 
Evening Out the Growth of the Section 8 Program's Funding Needs
(GAO/RCED-93-54, August 5, 1993). 


   OBSERVATIONS
------------------------------------------------------------ Letter :9

The impact of deposit insurance on the accuracy of future deficit
estimates should be considerably less due to the improved
profitability of the banking and thrift industries and the
availability of funds allowing RTC to continue its work.  In recent
years, the volatility of deposit insurance outlays has distorted
changes between deficit estimates and final results.  Excluding
deposit insurance, OMB's estimate of the budget deficit for fiscal
year 1993 tracked closely to the final adjusted deficit. 

The budget estimation process is not likely to become any easier in
the near future given the tax and program changes contained in the
Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act of 1993 and the administration's
planned health care and welfare reforms.  Unpredictable behavior of
individuals and state and local governments in response to changes in
law, in addition to unanticipated changes in economic conditions and
demographic variables, affects estimates for many large programs and
receipt sources.  As previously discussed, unanticipated responses by
states and physicians to new regulations in the Medicaid and Medicare
programs contributed to significant variations from estimated outlays
in fiscal years 1992 and 1993.  Receipt estimates were affected by
the discretion that individual and corporate taxpayers have in
determining the timing of certain types of tax liabilities.  For this
reason, while annual receipt estimates may be relatively accurate
over a 2-year or 3-year period, estimating receipts for a given
fiscal year is more difficult. 

Although the fiscal year 1993 budget deficit was the lowest in 3
years, it still added $255 billion to the nation's debt.  In fiscal
year 1993 alone, interest payments on this borrowing were $292.5
billion--20.8 percent of outlays--and more than the deficit for the
year.  CBO projects\22 that under the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation
Act of 1993 and with continued economic growth, the annual deficit
will shrink to $166 billion in fiscal year 1996 but will turn upward
near the end of the decade unless additional action is taken.  In
previous reports\23 we have discussed the budget deficit in detail
and concluded that strategies to reduce it must include all major
areas of the budget--mandatory spending, discretionary spending, and
revenues.  Today, while the economy is growing and the deficit is
not, is a good time to adopt policies to keep the deficit on a
downward path. 


--------------------
\22 The Economic and Budget Outlook:  Fiscal Years 1995-1999, January
1994, the Congress of the United States, Congressional Budget Office. 

\23 For a discussion of the deficit, see Budget Issues
(GAO/OCG-93-1TR, December 1992); Budget Policy:  Prompt Action
Necessary to Avert Long-Term Damage to the Economy (GAO/OCG-92-2,
June 5, 1992); and The Budget Deficit:  Outlook, Implications, and
Choices (GAO/OCG-90-5, September 12, 1990). 


---------------------------------------------------------- Letter :9.1

As agreed with the Committee, unless you publicly release its
contents earlier, we plan no further distribution of this report
until 10 days from the date of this letter.  At that time, we will
send copies of this report to the Ranking Minority Member of your
Committee, the Chairman and Ranking Minority Member of the Senate
Budget Committee, the Secretary of the Treasury, and the Directors of
the Office of Management and Budget and the Congressional Budget
Office.  We will also make copies available to others upon request. 

Please contact me at (202) 512-9142 if you or your staff have any
questions concerning the report.  Other major contributors to this
report are listed in appendix IV. 

Sincerely yours,




Susan J.  Irving
Associate Director, Budget Issues


FISCAL YEAR 1993 ESTIMATED AND
ACTUAL OUTLAYS FOR MAJOR BUDGET
ACCOUNTS
=========================================================== Appendix I

                     (Dollars in billions in descending order
                              of original estimate)

    Account                         Account     Original     Revised      Actual
    code        Department          title       estimate    estimate     outlays
--  ----------  ------------------  --------  ----------  ----------  ----------
1   20-0550     Treasury            Interest      $315.8      $294.7      $292.5
                                    on the
                                    Public
                                    Debt

2   20-8006     Health and Human    Federal        269.9       270.1       270.0
                Services (HHS)      Old Age
                                    and
                                    Survivor
                                    s
                                    Insuranc
                                    e Trust
                                    Fund

3   75-0512     HHS                 Grants          84.4        80.5        75.8
                                    to
                                    States
                                    for
                                    Medicaid

4   20-8005     HHS                 Federal         83.6        91.5        91.6
                                    Hospital
                                    Insuranc
                                    e Trust
                                    Fund

5   20-8004     HHS                 Suppleme        61.1        56.2        54.3
                                    ntal
                                    Medical
                                    Insuranc
                                    e Trust
                                    Fund

6   75-0580     HHS                 Payments        42.6        44.2        44.7
                                    to
                                    Health
                                    Care
                                    Trust
                                    Funds

7   51-4064     FDIC                Bank            38.0         4.0        -9.8
                                    Insuranc
                                    e Fund

8   24-8135     Office of           Civil           35.0        34.6        34.9
                Personnel           Service
                Management (OPM)    Retireme
                                    nt and
                                    Disabili
                                    ty Trust
                                    Fund

9   22-4055     RTC                 RTC             32.5        -3.9       -19.2
                                    Revolvin
                                    g Fund

10  20-8007     HHS                 Disabili        32.3        34.8        34.6
                                    ty
                                    Insuranc
                                    e Trust
                                    Fund

11  20-8042     Labor               Unemploy        29.1        40.2        39.7
                                    ment
                                    Trust
                                    Fund

12  97-8097     Department of       Military        25.6        25.6        25.7
                Defense (DOD)-      Retireme
                Civil               nt Trust
                                    Fund

13  12-3505\a   Agriculture         Food            23.7        24.5        24.6
                                    Stamp
                                    Program

14  21-2010     DOD-Military        Military        23.4        23.2        22.9
                                    Personne
                                    l, Army

15  75-0406     HHS                 Suppleme        21.2        23.6        22.6
                                    ntal
                                    Security
                                    Income
                                    Program

16  17-1804     DOD-Military        Operatio        21.1        21.9        23.8
                                    n and
                                    Maintena
                                    nce,
                                    Navy

17  24-0200     OPM                 Payment         19.7        19.9        19.8
                                    to Civil
                                    Service
                                    Retireme
                                    nt and
                                    Disabili
                                    ty Trust
                                    Fund

18  17-1453     DOD-Military        Military        19.7        19.2        19.4
                                    Personne
                                    l, Navy

19  57-3500     DOD-Military        Military        18.6        18.5        18.3
                                    Personne
                                    l, Air
                                    Force

20  57-3400     DOD-Military        Operatio        18.5        19.2        20.7
                                    n and
                                    Maintena
                                    nce, Air
                                    Force

21  21-2020     DOD-Military        Operatio        18.5        20.5        20.5
                                    n and
                                    Maintena
                                    nce,
                                    Army

22  69-8083     Transportation      Federal-        16.9        17.6        16.3
                                    Aid,
                                    Highway
                                    Trust
                                    Fund

23  36-0102\a   Veterans Affairs    Compensa        16.4        16.8        17.0
                                    tion and
                                    Pensions

24  75-1501     HHS                 Family          15.3        15.8        15.6
                                    Support
                                    Payments
                                    to
                                    States

25  86-0164     Housing and Urban   Annual          14.9        13.4        14.4
                Development (HUD)   Contribu
                                    tions
                                    for
                                    Assisted
                                    Housing
                                    Programs

26  36-0160     Veterans Affairs    Medical         14.3        14.5        14.3
                                    Care

27  57-3600     DOD-Military        Research        14.1        12.8        12.3
                                    ,
                                    Developm
                                    ent,
                                    Test,
                                    and
                                    Evaluati
                                    on
                                    (RDT&E),
                                    Air
                                    Force

28  97-0040     DOD-Civil           Payment         11.8        12.3        12.3
                                    to
                                    Military
                                    Retireme
                                    nt Fund

29  57-3010     DOD-Military        Aircraft        11.5        10.8        11.4
                                    Procurem
                                    ent, Air
                                    Force

30  12-4336     Agriculture         Commodit        11.3        15.5        15.0
                                    y Credit
                                    Corporat
                                    ion

31  11-8242     Funds Appropriated  Foreign         11.3        12.9        13.2
                to                  Military
                the President       Sales
                                    Trust
                                    Fund

32  97-0400     DOD-Military        RDT&E,           9.8         9.4         9.2
                                    Defense-
                                    Wide

33  97-0100     DOD-Military        Operatio         9.7         9.2         9.6
                                    n and
                                    Maintena
                                    nce,
                                    Defense
                                    Agencies

34  17-1611     DOD-Military        Shipbuil         9.4         9.6        10.1
                                    ding and
                                    Conversi
                                    on, Navy

35  75-9915     HHS                 National         9.1         9.2         9.5
                                    Institut
                                    es of
                                    Health

36  17-1319     DOD-Military        RDT&E,           8.2         9.1         8.9
                                    Navy

37  57-3080     DOD-Military        Other            8.1         7.8         8.1
                                    Procurem
                                    ent, Air
                                    Force

38  60-8010     Railroad            Railroad         8.0         7.9         7.9
                Retirement          Social
                Board (RRB)         Security
                                    Equivale
                                    nt
                                    Benefit
                                    Account

39  20-0906     Treasury            Payment          7.9         8.4         8.8
                                    Where
                                    Earned
                                    Income
                                    Credit
                                    Exceeds
                                    Tax
                                    Liabilit
                                    y

40  17-1506     DOD-Military        Aircraft         7.6         7.5         7.2
                                    Procurem
                                    ent,
                                    Navy

41  97-0130     DOD-Military        Defense          7.3         8.1         8.2
                                    Health
                                    Program

42  91-0200     Education           Student          7.2         7.5         7.7
                                    Financia
                                    l
                                    Assistan
                                    ce

43  80-0108     National            Research         6.8         6.9         7.1
                Aeronautics and     and
                Space               Developm
                Administration      ent
                (NASA)

44  91-0900     Education           Compensa         6.6         7.3         6.6
                                    tory
                                    Educatio
                                    n for
                                    the
                                    Disadvan
                                    taged

45  12-3539     Agriculture         State            6.5         6.8         6.6
                                    Child
                                    Nutritio
                                    n
                                    Programs

46  75-0404     HHS                 Payments         6.4         6.0         6.2
                                    to
                                    Social
                                    Security
                                    Trust
                                    Fund

47  51-4065     FDIC                FSLIC            6.4         3.8         2.4
                                    Resoluti
                                    on Fund

48  17-1105     DOD-Military        Military         6.1         6.0         5.9
                                    Personne
                                    l,
                                    Marine
                                    Corps

49  21-2040     DOD-Military        RDT&E,           5.7         5.8         6.2
                                    Army

50  57-3020     DOD-Military        Missile          5.7         6.0         5.4
                                    Procurem
                                    ent, Air
                                    Force

51  80-0105     NASA                Space            5.1         5.0         5.0
                                    Flight,
                                    Control,
                                    and Data
                                    Communic
                                    ations

52  17-1507     DOD-Military        Weapons          5.1         5.1         4.7
                                    Procurem
                                    ent,
                                    Navy

53  17-1810     DOD-Military        Other            4.8         6.0         6.4
                                    Procurem
                                    ent,
                                    Navy

54  89-0240     Energy              Atomic           4.8         4.6         4.3
                                    Energy,
                                    Weapons
                                    Activiti
                                    es

55  16-0174     Labor               Training         4.2         5.2         4.2
                                    and
                                    Employme
                                    nt
                                    Services

56  75-1536     HHS                 Children         4.2         4.6         3.4
                                    and
                                    Families
                                    Services
                                    Program

57  89-0242     Energy              Defense          4.1         4.2         4.2
                                    Environm
                                    ental
                                    Restorat
                                    ion and
                                    Waste
                                    Manageme
                                    nt

58  11-1082     Funds Appropriated  Foreign          4.0         4.6         4.6
                to                  Military
                the President       Financin
                                    g Grants

59  24-0206     OPM                 Governme         3.9         3.7         3.8
                                    nt
                                    Payment
                                    for
                                    Annuitan
                                    ts,
                                    Employee
                                    s Health
                                    Benefits

60  20-0913     Treasury            Tax Law          3.8         3.8         3.9
                                    Enforcem
                                    ent

61  86-0162     HUD                 Communit         3.3         3.8         3.2
                                    y
                                    Developm
                                    ent
                                    Grants

62  21-2060     DOD-Military        National         3.2         3.1         3.3
                                    Guard
                                    Personne
                                    l, Army

63  11-1037     Funds Appropriated  Economic         3.2         3.2         3.2
                to                  Support
                the President       Fund

64  91-0230     Education           Federal          3.2         2.8         3.2
                                    Family
                                    Educatio
                                    n Loan
                                    Liquidat
                                    ing
                                    Account\
                                    b

65  69-8104     Transportation      Trust            3.2         2.3         2.3
                                    Fund
                                    Share of
                                    FAA
                                    Operatio
                                    ns

66  60-0113     RRB                 Federal          3.1         3.1         3.0
                                    Payments
                                    to the
                                    Railroad
                                    Retireme
                                    nt
                                    Accounts

67  75-1362\b   HHS                 Substanc         3.1         2.6         2.7
                                    e Abuse
                                    and
                                    Mental
                                    Health
                                    Services
                                    Administ
                                    ration

68  21-2035     DOD-Military        Other            3.0         3.3         3.9
                                    Procurem
                                    ent,
                                    Army

69  89-0224     Energy              Energy           3.0         3.0         2.8
                                    Supply,
                                    R&D
                                    Activiti
                                    es

70  12-3510     Agriculture         Special          2.8         2.9         2.8
                                    Suppleme
                                    ntal
                                    Food
                                    Program
                                    for
                                    Women,
                                    Infants,
                                    and
                                    Children

71  75-1534     HHS                 Social           2.8         2.8         2.8
                                    Services
                                    Block
                                    Grant

72  60-8011     RRB                 Railroad         2.8         2.9         2.8
                                    Industry
                                    Pension
                                    Fund

73  75-1545     HHS                 Payments         2.8         2.9         2.6
                                    to
                                    States
                                    for
                                    Foster
                                    Care and
                                    Adoption
                                    Assistan
                                    ce

74  91-0300     Education           Special          2.8         2.8         2.6
                                    Educatio
                                    n

75  91-0231     Education           Federal          2.6         2.3         2.4
                                    Family
                                    Educatio
                                    n Loan
                                    Program\
                                    b

76  89-0243     Energy              Material         2.6         2.9         2.2
                                    s
                                    Support
                                    and
                                    Other
                                    Defense
                                    Programs

77  57-3840     DOD-Military        Operatio         2.5         2.4         2.6
                                    n and
                                    Maintena
                                    nce, Air
                                    National
                                    Guard

78  69-0201     Transportation      Operatin         2.4         2.6         2.5
                                    g
                                    Expense,
                                    Coast
                                    Guard

79  86-0163     HUD                 Low              2.3         2.4         2.5
                                    Income
                                    Housing
                                    Projects

80  86-0194     HUD                 Assistan         2.3         3.1         2.5
                                    ce for
                                    the
                                    Renewal
                                    of
                                    Expiring
                                    Section
                                    8
                                    Subsidy
                                    Contract
                                    s

81  75-0350     HHS                 Health           2.3         2.5         2.3
                                    Resource
                                    s and
                                    Services

82  20-1851     Treasury            Payment          2.3         2.3         2.3
                                    to the
                                    Resoluti
                                    on
                                    Funding
                                    Corporat
                                    ion

83  97-0300     DOD-Military        Procurem         2.3         2.0         1.7
                                    ent,
                                    Defense-
                                    Wide

84  10-0920     The Judiciary       S&E,             2.2         2.0         2.1
                                    Court of
                                    Appeals

85  20-0904     Treasury            Refundin         2.2         2.6         2.1
                                    g
                                    Internal
                                    Revenue
                                    Collecti
                                    ons,
                                    Interest

86  68-0103     Environmental       Water            2.2         2.4         2.1
                Protection Agency   Infrastr
                (EPA)               ucture
                                    Financin
                                    g\b

87  21-2065     DOD-Military        Operatio         2.1         2.3         2.3
                                    n and
                                    Maintena
                                    nce,
                                    Army
                                    National
                                    Guard

88  19-0113     State               Salaries         2.1         2.1         2.3
                                    and
                                    Expenses

89  21-2032     DOD-Military        Missile          2.1         2.1         2.2
                                    Procurem
                                    ent,
                                    Army

90  21-2070     DOD-Military        Reserve          2.1         2.2         2.2
                                    Personne
                                    l, Army

91  91-0301     Education           Rehabili         2.1         2.2         2.0
                                    tation
                                    Services
                                    and
                                    Disabili
                                    ty
                                    Research

92  69-8107     Transportation      Faciliti         2.0         2.0         2.2
                                    es &
                                    Equipmen
                                    t,
                                    Airport
                                    and
                                    Airway
                                    Trust
                                    Fund

93  49-0100     National Science    Research         2.0         2.0         1.8
                Foundation          and
                                    Related
                                    Activiti
                                    es

94  15-0200     Justice             S&E, FBI         1.9         2.0         2.0

95  21-2031     DOD-Military        Aircraft         1.9         1.8         1.7
                                    Procurem
                                    ent,
                                    Army

96  86-4238     HUD                 Guarante         1.9        -0.4        -0.5
                                    es of
                                    Mortgage
                                    -
                                    Backed
                                    Securiti
                                    es

97  17-1106     DOD-Military        Operatio         1.8         2.1         2.2
                                    n and
                                    Maintena
                                    nce,
                                    Marine
                                    Corps

98  69-8106     Transportation      Grants           1.8         2.1         1.9
                                    in Aid
                                    for
                                    Airports

99  12-3319     Agriculture         Conserva         1.8         1.8         1.7
                                    tion
                                    Reserve
                                    Program

10  15-1060     Justice             S&E,             1.8         1.7         1.7
0                                   Federal
                                    Prison
                                    System

10  80-0103     NASA                Research         1.7         1.6         1.6
1                                   and
                                    Program
                                    Manageme
                                    nt

10  21-2033     DOD-Military        Weapons          1.6         1.8         2.1
2                                   Procurem
                                    ent,
                                    Army

10  91-1000     Education           School           1.6         1.7         2.0
3                                   Improvem
                                    ent
                                    Programs

10  20-0912     Treasury            Processi         1.6         1.6         1.7
4                                   ng Tax
                                    Returns
                                    and
                                    Assistan
                                    ce

10  17-1405     DOD-Military        Reserve          1.6         1.6         1.6
5                                   Personne
                                    l, Navy

10  18-4020     Postal Service      Postal           1.6         1.6         0.9
6                                   Service
                                    Fund

10  13-1450     Commerce            Operatio         1.5         1.7         1.6
7                                   ns,
                                    Research
                                    , and
                                    Faciliti
                                    es;
                                    National
                                    Oceanic
                                    and
                                    Atmosphe
                                    ric
                                    Administ
                                    ration

10  20-8145     EPA                 Hazardou         1.5         1.6         1.4
8                                   s
                                    Substanc
                                    e
                                    Superfun
                                    d

10  75-0943     HHS                 Disease          1.5         1.5         1.4
9                                   Control,
                                    Research
                                    , and
                                    Training

11  89-0222     Energy              General          1.5         1.4         1.4
0                                   Science
                                    and
                                    Research
                                    Activiti
                                    es

11  21-0702     DOD-Military        Family           1.5         1.4         1.4
1                                   Housing,
                                    Army

11  21-2034     DOD-Military        Procurem         1.5         1.3         1.4
2                                   ent of
                                    Ammuniti
                                    on, Army

11  69-8191     Transportation      Mass             1.5         1.3         1.3
3                                   Transit
                                    Capital
                                    Trust
                                    Fund

11  20-0602     Treasury            S&E,             1.5         1.5         1.5
4                                   U.S.
                                    Customs
                                    Service

11  97-0810     DOD-Military        Environm         1.5         0.9         0.0
5                                   ental
                                    Restorat
                                    ion,
                                    Defense

11  69-1301     Transportation      Operatio         1.4         2.2         2.2
6                                   ns,
                                    Federal
                                    Aviation
                                    Administ
                                    ration

11  20-0919     Treasury            Informat         1.4         1.6         1.2
7                                   ion
                                    Systems,
                                    Internal
                                    Revenue
                                    Service

11  97-0350     DOD-Military        National         1.3         1.7         1.7
8                                   Guard
                                    and
                                    Reserve
                                    Equipmen
                                    t

11  64-4110     Tennessee Valley    Tennesse         1.3         1.4         1.6
9               Authority           e Valley
                                    Authorit
                                    y Fund

12  75-0390     HHS                 Indian           1.3         1.5         1.5
0                                   Health
                                    Services
                                    and
                                    Faciliti
                                    es

12  12-1106     Agriculture         National         1.3         1.4         1.4
1                                   Forest
                                    System

12  36-8132     Veterans Affairs    National         1.3         1.2         1.1
2                                   Service
                                    Life
                                    Insuranc
                                    e Fund

12  57-3300     DOD-Military        Military         1.3         1.1         0.9
3                                   Construc
                                    tion,
                                    Air
                                    Force

12  11-1021     Funds Appropriated  Function         1.2         1.3         1.5
4               to                  al
                the President       Developm
                                    ent
                                    Assistan
                                    ce
                                    Program

12  14-2100     Interior            Operatio         1.2         1.3         1.4
5                                   n of
                                    Indian
                                    Programs

12  57-3740     DOD-Military        Operatio         1.2         1.2         1.3
6                                   n and
                                    Maintena
                                    nce, Air
                                    Force
                                    Reserve

12  91-0400     Education           Vocation         1.2         1.3         1.2
7                                   al and
                                    Adult
                                    Educatio
                                    n

12  57-3850     DOD-Military        National         1.2         1.2         1.2
8                                   Guard
                                    Personne
                                    l, Air
                                    Force

12  17-1205     DOD-Military        Military         1.2         1.0         0.9
9                                   Construc
                                    tion,
                                    Navy

13  47-4542     GSA                 Federal          1.2         1.1         0.6
0                                   Building
                                    s Fund

13  69-8350     Transportation      Trust            1.2         1.2         0.6
1                                   Fund
                                    Share of
                                    Transit
                                    Programs

13  68-0108     EPA                 Abatemen         1.1         1.3         1.3
2                                   t,
                                    Control,
                                    and
                                    Complian
                                    ce

13  57-0704     DOD-Military        Family           1.1         1.1         1.0
3                                   Housing,
                                    Air
                                    Force

13  96-3122     DOD-Civil           Construc         1.1         1.1         1.0
4                                   tion,
                                    General

13  68-0200     EPA                 Program          1.1         0.9         0.9
5                                   and
                                    Research
                                    Operatio
                                    ns\b

13  17-1109     DOD-Military        Procurem         1.0         1.2         1.5
6                                   ent,
                                    Marine
                                    Corps

13  12-2278     Agriculture         P.L. 480         1.0         1.2         1.1
7                                   Foreign
                                    Assistan
                                    ce
                                    Grants

13  96-3123     DOD-Civil           Operatio         1.0         1.2         1.1
8                                   n and
                                    Maintena
                                    nce,
                                    General

13  21-2080     DOD-Military        Operatio         1.0         1.1         1.0
9                                   n and
                                    Maintena
                                    nce,
                                    Army
                                    Reserve

14  15-1217     Justice             Immigrat         1.0         1.1         1.0
0                                   ion &
                                    Naturali
                                    zation
                                    Service

14  20-8144     Labor               Black            1.0         1.0         1.0
1                                   Lung
                                    Disabili
                                    ty Trust
                                    Fund

14  14-1036     Interior            Operatio         1.0         1.1         1.0
2                                   n of the
                                    National
                                    Park
                                    System

14  36-0137     Veterans Affairs    Readjust         1.0         0.8         0.9
3                                   ment
                                    Benefits

14  17-0703     DOD-Military        Family           0.9         0.9         0.9
4                                   Housing,
                                    Navy and
                                    Marine
                                    Corps

14  19-1126     State               Contribu         0.9         0.9         0.9
5                                   tions to
                                    Internat
                                    ional
                                    Organiza
                                    tions

14  21-2050     DOD-Military        Military         0.9         0.8         0.8
6                                   Construc
                                    tion,
                                    Army

14  17-1806     DOD-Military        Operatio         0.8         0.8         0.9
7                                   n and
                                    Maintena
                                    nce,
                                    Navy
                                    Reserves

14  36-0151     Veterans Affairs    General          0.8         0.9         0.8
8                                   Operatin
                                    g
                                    Expenses

14  16-0327     Labor               Advances         0.7         4.7         5.0
9                                   to the
                                    Unemploy
                                    ment
                                    Trust
                                    Fund and
                                    Other
                                    Funds

15  58-0104     Federal Emergency   Disaster         0.7         2.5         2.3
0               Management Agency   Relief

15  75-1502     HHS                 Low              0.7         1.0         1.1
1                                   Income
                                    Home
                                    Energy
                                    Assistan
                                    ce

15  12-4155     Agriculture         Rural            0.6         0.6         0.5
2                                   Developm
                                    ent
                                    Insuranc
                                    e Fund
                                    Liquidat
                                    ing
                                    Account

15  12-4141     Agriculture         Rural            0.6         0.6         0.2
3                                   Housing
                                    Insuranc
                                    e Fund
                                    Liquidat
                                    ing
                                    Account

15  12-4085     Agriculture         Federal          0.6         0.5         0.1
4                                   Crop
                                    Insuranc
                                    e
                                    Corporat
                                    ion

15  69-1129     Transportation      Formula          0.5         0.8         1.2
5                                   Grants

15  14-0804     Interior            Surveys,         0.5         0.6         0.6
6                                   Investig
                                    ations,
                                    and
                                    Research

15  86-0143     HUD                 S&E,             0.5         0.5         0.5
7                                   Manageme
                                    nt and
                                    Administ
                                    ration

15  12-2081     Agriculture         Rural            0.5         1.0         0.9
8                                   Housing
                                    Insuranc
                                    e Fund
                                    Program

15  86-4072     HUD                 FHA              0.5         0.9         0.3
9                                   General
                                    and
                                    Special
                                    Risk
                                    Insuranc
                                    e

16  16-1521     Labor               Special          0.3         0.3         0.2
0                                   Benefits

16  83-4027     Export-Import Bank  Export-          0.3        -1.3        -1.0
1                                   Import
                                    Bank of
                                    the
                                    United
                                    States

16  12-4338     Agriculture         Commodit         0.2         0.9         0.5
2                                   y Credit
                                    Corporat
                                    ion
                                    Guarante
                                    ed Loans
                                    Liquidat
                                    ing
                                    Account

16  86-4115     HUD                 Housing          0.2         0.3         0.1
3                                   for the
                                    Elderly
                                    or
                                    Handicap
                                    ped

16  16-0178\c   Labor               Payments         0.0         7.8         7.5
4                                   to the
                                    Unemploy
                                    ment
                                    Trust
                                    Fund

16  21-4528     DOD-Military        Army             0.0         0.0         0.2
5                                   Conventi
                                    onal
                                    Ammuniti
                                    on,
                                    Working
                                    Capital
                                    Fund

16  36-4025     Veterans Affairs    Loan             0.0         0.3         0.1
6                                   Guaranty
                                    Revolvin
                                    g Fund
                                    Liquidat
                                    ing
                                    Account

16  75-0511     HHS                 Program          0.0         0.2         0.1
7                                   Manageme
                                    nt

16  47-4548     GSA                 Informat         0.0         0.1         0.0
8                                   ion
                                    Technolo
                                    gy Fund

16  04-4505     Government          Governme         0.0         0.0         0.0
9               Printing            nt
                Office              Printing
                                    Office
                                    Revolvin
                                    g Fund

17  47-4530     GSA                 General          0.0         0.0         0.0
0                                   Supply
                                    Fund

17  20-4521     Treasury            Federal          0.0         0.0         0.0
1                                   Financin
                                    g Bank

17  16-0179     Labor               State            0.0         0.0         0.0
2                                   Unemploy
                                    ment
                                    Insuranc
                                    e and
                                    Employme
                                    nt
                                    Service
                                    Operatio
                                    ns

17  36-4537     Veterans Affairs    Supply           0.0         0.0         0.0
3                                   Fund

17  96-4902     DOD-Civil           Revolvin         0.0         0.0         0.0
4                                   g Fund

17  86-4070     HUD                 FHA             -0.1        -0.2         0.2
5                                   Mutual
                                    Mortgage
                                    and
                                    Cooperat
                                    ive
                                    Housing
                                    Insuranc
                                    e Funds

17  12-4140     Agriculture         Agricult        -0.1         0.0         0.1
6                                   ural
                                    Credit
                                    Insuranc
                                    e Fund

17  89-4045     Energy              Bonnevil        -0.2         0.6         0.6
7                                   le Power
                                    Administ
                                    ration
                                    Fund

17  24-8440     OPM                 Employee        -0.2        -0.1        -0.9
8                                   s Health
                                    Benefits
                                    Fund

17  12-4230     Agriculture         Rural           -0.2        -0.6        -1.4
9                                   Electrif
                                    ication
                                    and
                                    Telephon
                                    e
                                    Liquidat
                                    ing
                                    Account

18  89-0226     Energy              Uranium         -0.3        -0.1         0.2
0                                   Supply
                                    and
                                    Enrichme
                                    nt
                                    Activiti
                                    es

18  97-4930     DOD-Military        Defense         -0.6        -2.8        -4.9
1                                   Business
                                    Operatio
                                    ns Fund

18  24-8424     OPM                 Employee        -1.2        -1.1        -1.1
2                                   s Life
                                    Insuranc
                                    e Fund
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a Represents a combination of accounts to ensure comparability
between original and/or revised estimates and actual outlays. 

\b Reflects change in account code or title. 

\c Account initiated subsequent to original estimate as a result of
amendments to the Emergency Unemployment Law (Public Law 102-164). 

Sources:  OMB's Budget Preparation System for fiscal years 1993 and
1994 and Department of the Treasury. 


FISCAL YEAR 1992 AND 1993
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN REVISED
ESTIMATES AND ACTUAL OUTLAYS FOR
SELECTED ACCOUNTS
========================================================== Appendix II



                                    Table II.1
                     
                      Accounts With Differences From Revised
                       Estimates Greater Than 10 Percent in
                            Fiscal Years 1992 and 1993

                     (Dollars in billions in descending order
                       of 1993 absolute percent difference)


                                                Difference            Difference
                                                      as a                  as a
                                        Actual  percent of  Actual    percent of
    Account                 Account     outlay     revised  outlay       revised
    code      Department    title            s    estimate       s    estimate\a
--  --------  ------------  ----------  ------  ----------  ------  ------------
1   04-4505   Government    Government   $ 0.0       132.0   $ 0.0       -2714.1
              Printing      Printing
              Office        Office
                            Revolving
                            Fund

2   24-8440   OPM           Employees     -0.4        24.3    -0.9         498.4
                            Health
                            Benefits
                            Fund

3   22-4055   RTC           RTC           -9.0      -122.1   -19.2         386.2
                            Revolving
                            Fund

4   89-0226   Energy        Uranium       -0.3        40.1     0.2        -361.3
                            Supply and
                            Enrichment
                            Activities

5   51-4064   FDIC          Bank           3.7       -88.9    -9.8        -345.3
                            Insurance
                            Fund

6   86-4070   HUD           FHA Mutual     0.9      -603.1     0.2        -191.5
                            Mortgage
                            and
                            Cooperativ
                            e Housing
                            Insurance
                            Funds

7   12-4230   Agriculture   Rural         -1.0      -271.2    -1.4         145.2
                            Electrific
                            ation and
                            Telephone
                            Liquidatin
                            g Account

8   97-0810   DOD-          Environmen     0.0      -100.3     0.0        -100.3
              Military      tal
                            Restoratio
                            n, Defense

9   47-4548   GSA           Informatio     0.0       -89.8     0.0         -77.6
                            n
                            Technology
                            Fund

10  97-4930   DOD-          Defense        3.2       -43.0    -4.9          71.9
              Military      Business
                            Operations
                            Fund

11  36-4025   Veterans      Loan           0.1       -72.2     0.1         -71.4
              Affairs       Guaranty
                            Revolving
                            Fund
                            Liquidatin
                            g Account

12  86-4072   HUD           FHA            1.1        21.8     0.3         -68.6
                            General
                            and
                            Special
                            Risk
                            Insurance

13  12-4141   Agriculture   Rural          1.3       -18.9     0.2         -67.5
                            Housing
                            Insurance
                            Fund
                            Liquidatin
                            g Account

14  86-4115   HUD           Housing        0.5       -25.5     0.1         -55.3
                            for the
                            Elderly or
                            Handicappe
                            d

15  12-4338   Agriculture   Commodity      0.5       -46.0     0.5         -49.8
                            Credit
                            Corporatio
                            n
                            Guaranteed
                            Loans
                            Liquidatin
                            g Account

16  75-0511   HHS           Program       -0.1       -59.4     0.1         -49.6
                            Management

17  18-4020   Postal        Postal         0.7       -20.1     0.9         -46.8
              Service       Service
                            Fund

18  51-4065   FDIC          FSLIC          8.5        20.6     2.4         -38.4
                            Resolution
                            Fund

19  86-4238   HUD           Guarantees    -0.4        25.8    -0.5          25.5
                            of
                            Mortgage-
                            Backed
                            Securities

20  83-4027   Export-       Export-       -0.2      -155.9    -1.0         -24.2
              Import        Import
              Bank          Bank of
                            the United
                            States

21  64-4110   TVA           Tennessee      1.5       295.1     1.6          19.4
                            Valley
                            Authority
                            Fund

22  57-3300   DOD-          Military       0.9        21.0     0.9         -19.2
              Military      Constructi
                            on, Air
                            Force

23  91-1000   Education     School         1.5       -12.7     2.0          18.5
                            Improvemen
                            t Programs

24  20-0904   Treasury      Refunding      3.3        23.9     2.1         -18.0
                            Internal
                            Revenue
                            Collection
                            s,
                            Interest

25  86-0194   HUD           Assistance     1.5        19.5     2.5         -17.8
                            for the
                            Renewal of
                            Expiring
                            Section 8
                            Subsidy
                            Contracts

26  16-1521   Labor         Special        0.2        16.7     0.2         -16.6
                            Benefits

27  91-0230   Education     Federal        1.5       -20.4     3.2          16.5
                            Family
                            Education
                            Loan
                            Liquidatin
                            g Account

28  21-2033   DOD-          Weapons        2.2       -17.5     2.1          16.5
              Military      Procuremen
                            t, Army

29  11-1021   Funds         Functional     1.4        27.2     1.5          15.3
              Appropriated  Developmen
              to the        t
              President     Assistance
                            Program

30  97-0300   DOD-          Procuremen     1.4       -39.1     1.7         -13.2
              Military      t,
                            Defense-
                            Wide

31  20-8145   EPA           Hazardous      1.3       -13.1     1.4         -11.3
                            Substance
                            Superfund
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a The fiscal year 1993 revised estimate for these accounts is shown
in appendix I. 

Sources:  OMB's Budget Preparation System for fiscal years 1991-1993
and Department of the Treasury. 



                                    Table II.2
                     
                      Accounts With Differences From Revised
                      Estimates Greater Than $250 Million in
                            Fiscal Years 1992 and 1993

                     (Dollars in billions in descending order
                       of 1993 absolute dollar difference)


                                                     Actual               Actual
                                                    outlays              outlays
                                         Actual       minus  Actual        minus
    Account                 Account      outlay     revised  outlay      revised
    code      Department    title             s    estimate       s   estimate\a
--  --------  ------------  -----------  ------  ----------  ------  -----------
1   22-4055   RTC           RTC             $ -      $-49.4     $ -       $-15.2
                            Revolving       9.0                19.2
                            Fund

2   51-4064   FDIC          Bank            3.7       -29.3    -9.8        -13.8
                            Insurance
                            Fund

3   75-0512   HHS           Grants to      67.8        -4.7    75.8         -4.7
                            States for
                            Medicaid

4   20-0550   Treasury      Interest on   292.3        -2.2   292.5         -2.2
                            the Public
                            Debt

5   97-4930   DOD-          Defense         3.2        -2.4    -4.9         -2.0
              Military      Business
                            Operations
                            Fund

6   20-8004   HHS           Supplementa    50.3        -3.9    54.3         -2.0
                            l Medical
                            Insurance
                            Trust Fund

7   57-3400   DOD-          Operation      19.9        -1.1    20.7          1.5
              Military      and
                            Maintenance
                            , Air Force

8   51-4065   FDIC          FSLIC           8.5         1.4     2.4         -1.5
                            Resolution
                            Fund

9   69-8083   Transportati  Federal-       15.2        -0.6    16.3         -1.3
              on            Aid,
                            Highway
                            Trust Fund

10  75-0406   HHS           Supplementa    19.4        -0.3    22.6         -1.0
                            l Security
                            Income
                            Program

    86-0164   HUD           Annual         13.6        -0.5    14.4          1.0
11                          Contributio
                            ns for
                            Assisted
                            Housing
                            Programs

12  97-0810   DOD-          Environment     0.0        -1.3     0.0         -0.9
              Military      al
                            Restoration
                            , Defense

13  12-4230   Agriculture   Rural          -1.0        -1.5    -1.4         -0.8
                            Electrifica
                            tion and
                            Telephone
                            Liquidating
                            Account

14  21-2035   DOD-          Other           3.8         0.3     3.9          0.6
              Military      Procurement
                            , Army

15  57-3010   DOD-          Aircraft       13.2        -0.5    11.4          0.6
              Military      Procurement
                            , Air Force

16  20-8042   Labor         Unemploymen    41.3         5.6    39.7         -0.5
                            t Trust
                            Fund

17  17-1611   DOD-          Shipbuildin    11.0         0.8    10.1          0.5
              Military      g and
                            Conversion,
                            Navy

18  20-0904   Treasury      Refunding       3.3         0.6     2.1         -0.5
                            Internal
                            Revenue
                            Collection,
                            Interest

19  75-0580   HHS           Payments to    39.4        -0.7    44.7          0.5
                            Health Care
                            Trust Funds

20  91-0230   Education     Federal         1.5        -0.4     3.2          0.5
                            Family
                            Education
                            Loan
                            Liquidating
                            Account

21  12-4338   Agriculture   Commodity       0.5        -0.4     0.5         -0.5
                            Credit
                            Corporation
                            Guaranteed
                            Loans
                            Liquidating
                            Account

22  12-4336   Agriculture   Commodity       9.0        -1.9    15.1         -0.4
                            Credit
                            Corporation

23  57-3600   DOD-          RDT&E, Air     12.0        -0.8    12.3         -0.4
              Military      Force

24  12-4141   Agriculture   Rural           1.3        -0.3     0.2         -0.4
                            Housing
                            Insurance
                            Fund
                            Liquidating
                            Account

25  97-0100   DOD-          Operation      14.8        -1.0     9.6          0.4
              Military      and
                            Maintenance
                            , Defense-
                            Agencies

26  86-4070   HUD           FHA Mutual      0.9         1.1     0.2          0.4
                            Mortgage
                            and
                            Cooperative
                            Housing
                            Insurance
                            Funds

27  17-1810   DOD-          Other           6.1         0.6     6.4          0.4
              Military      Procurement
                            , Navy

28  17-1507   DOD-          Weapons         5.9         0.5     4.7         -0.3
              Military      Procurement
                            , Navy

29  11-8242   Funds         Foreign        12.4         1.1    13.2          0.3
              Appropriated  Military
              to the        Sales Trust
              President     Fund

30  83-4027   Export-       Export-        -0.2        -0.7    -1.0          0.3
              Import        Import Bank
              Bank          of the
                            United
                            States

31  21-2033   DOD-          Weapons         2.2        -0.5     2.1          0.3
              Military      Procurement
                            , Army

32  89-0240   Energy        Atomic          4.4        -0.4     4.3         -0.3
                            Energy,
                            Weapons
                            Activities

33  64-4110   TVA           Tennessee       1.5         1.1     1.6          0.3
                            Valley
                            Authority
                            Fund

34  24-8135   OPM           Civil          33.7        -0.4    34.9          0.3
                            Service
                            Retirement
                            and
                            Disability
                            Trust Fund

35  97-0300   DOD-          Procurement     1.4        -0.9     1.7         -0.3
              Military      , Defense-
                            Wide
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a The fiscal year 1993 revised estimate for these accounts is shown
in appendix I. 

Sources:  OMB's Budget Preparation System for fiscal years 1991-1993
and Department of the Treasury. 


CALENDAR YEAR 1993 ECONOMIC
ASSUMPTIONS
========================================================= Appendix III

                                              Blue
                           CBO       OMB      Chip    Actual
--------------------  --------  --------  --------  --------
Real Gross Domestic
 Product\a
 (percent change,                                      2.9\b
 4th quarter over
 4th quarter)
Early 1992                 3.3       3.0       3.0
Midyear 1992               3.2       3.0       3.1
Early 1993                 2.8       2.8       3.0
Midyear 1993               2.3       2.3       2.2
Consumer Price
 Index\c
 (percent change,                                      2.7\b
 4th quarter over
 4th quarter)
Early 1992                 3.6       3.3       3.8
Midyear 1992               3.4       3.3       3.6
Early 1993                 2.8       2.8       3.2
Midyear 1993               3.4       2.9       3.3
Unemployment Rate\d
 (annual average)                                      6.8\e
Early 1992                 6.4       6.5       6.3
Midyear 1992               6.8       6.6       6.7
Early 1993                 7.1       7.1       7.0
Midyear 1993               6.9       7.0       6.9
Long-term interest                                     5.9\e
 rate\f
Early 1992                 7.1       6.9       7.5
Midyear 1992               6.9       7.0       7.6
Early 1993                 6.7       6.7       6.9
Midyear 1993               6.0       6.1       6.1
Short-term interest                                    3.0\e
 rate\g
Early 1992                 5.1       5.1       5.0
Midyear 1992               3.7       4.7       4.4
Early 1993                 3.1       3.2       3.5
Midyear 1993               3.1       3.1       3.1
------------------------------------------------------------
\a Gross domestic product estimates are calculated using base year
1987 dollars. 

\b Computed as compound annual average change using quarterly data. 

\c All estimates use the consumer price index for urban consumers. 

\d All estimates use the civilian labor force. 

\e Computed as a simple average of quarterly rates. 

\f OMB and CBO estimates are for 10-year Treasury notes.  Blue Chip
does not project a similar estimate.  The Blue Chip estimates
presented in the table are constructed by CBO based on an estimated
relationship between rates on 10-year bonds and the Blue Chip
projected Aaa bond rate. 

\g Estimates are for 3-month Treasury bills. 

Sources:  Office of Management and Budget and Congressional Budget
Office. 


MAJOR CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS REPORT
========================================================== Appendix IV

ACCOUNTING AND INFORMATION
MANAGEMENT DIVISION, WASHINGTON,
D.C. 

Christine E.  Bonham, Assistant Director, (202) 512-9576
James R.  McTigue, Jr., Evaluator-in-Charge
Andrew D.  Eschtruth, Evaluator
Elizabeth A.  McClarin, Auditor

