[Federal Register Volume 91, Number 7 (Monday, January 12, 2026)]
[Notices]
[Pages 1190-1192]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2026-00325]


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DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH AND HUMAN SERVICES

Food and Drug Administration

[Docket No. FDA-2025-D-3217]


Use of Bayesian Methodology in Clinical Trials of Drug and 
Biological Products; Draft Guidance for Industry; Availability

AGENCY: Food and Drug Administration, HHS.

ACTION: Notice of availability.

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SUMMARY: The Food and Drug Administration (FDA or Agency) is announcing 
the availability of a draft guidance for industry entitled ``Use of 
Bayesian Methodology in Clinical Trials of Drug and Biological 
Products.'' This document provides guidance on the appropriate use of 
Bayesian methods in clinical trials. The primary focus is on the use of 
Bayesian methods to support primary inference in pivotal clinical 
trials designed to support the effectiveness and safety of drug and 
biological products.

DATES: Submit either electronic or written comments on the draft 
guidance by March 13, 2026 to ensure that the Agency considers your 
comment on this draft guidance before it begins work on the final 
version of the guidance.

ADDRESSES: You may submit comments on any guidance at any time as 
follows:

Electronic Submissions

    Submit electronic comments in the following way:
     Federal eRulemaking Portal: https://www.regulations.gov. 
Follow the instructions for submitting comments. Comments submitted 
electronically, including attachments, to https://www.regulations.gov 
will be posted to the docket unchanged. Because your comment will be 
made public, you are solely responsible for ensuring that your comment 
does not include any confidential information that you or a third party 
may not wish to be posted, such as medical information, your or anyone 
else's Social Security number, or confidential business information, 
such as a manufacturing process. Please note that if you include your 
name, contact information, or other information that identifies you in 
the body of your comments, that information will be posted on https://www.regulations.gov.
     If you want to submit a comment with confidential 
information that you do not wish to be made available to the public, 
submit the comment as a written/paper submission and in the manner 
detailed (see ``Written/Paper Submissions'' and ``Instructions'').

Written/Paper Submissions

    Submit written/paper submissions as follows:
     Mail/Hand Delivery/Courier (for written/paper 
submissions): Dockets Management Staff (HFA-305), Food and Drug 
Administration, 5630 Fishers Lane, Rm. 1061, Rockville, MD 20852.
     For written/paper comments submitted to the Dockets 
Management Staff, FDA will post your comment, as well as any 
attachments, except for

[[Page 1191]]

information submitted, marked and identified, as confidential, if 
submitted as detailed in ``Instructions.''
    Instructions: All submissions received must include the Docket No. 
FDA-2025-D-3217 for ``Use of Bayesian Methodology in Clinical Trials of 
Drug and Biological Products.'' Received comments will be placed in the 
docket and, except for those submitted as ``Confidential Submissions,'' 
publicly viewable at https://www.regulations.gov or at the Dockets 
Management Staff between 9 a.m. and 4 p.m., Monday through Friday, 240-
402-7500.
     Confidential Submissions--To submit a comment with 
confidential information that you do not wish to be made publicly 
available, submit your comments only as a written/paper submission. You 
should submit two copies total. One copy will include the information 
you claim to be confidential with a heading or cover note that states 
``THIS DOCUMENT CONTAINS CONFIDENTIAL INFORMATION.'' The Agency will 
review this copy, including the claimed confidential information, in 
its consideration of comments. The second copy, which will have the 
claimed confidential information redacted/blacked out, will be 
available for public viewing and posted on https://www.regulations.gov. 
Submit both copies to the Dockets Management Staff. If you do not wish 
your name and contact information to be made publicly available, you 
can provide this information on the cover sheet and not in the body of 
your comments and you must identify this information as 
``confidential.'' Any information marked as ``confidential'' will not 
be disclosed except in accordance with 21 CFR 10.20 and other 
applicable disclosure law. For more information about FDA's posting of 
comments to public dockets, see 80 FR 56469, September 18, 2015, or 
access the information at: https://www.govinfo.gov/content/pkg/FR-2015-09-18/pdf/2015-23389.pdf.
    Docket: For access to the docket to read background documents or 
the electronic and written/paper comments received, go to https://www.regulations.gov and insert the docket number, found in brackets in 
the heading of this document, into the ``Search'' box and follow the 
prompts and/or go to the Dockets Management Staff, 5630 Fishers Lane, 
Rm. 1061, Rockville, MD 20852, 240-402-7500.
    You may submit comments on any guidance at any time (see 21 CFR 
10.115(g)(5)).
    Submit written requests for single copies of the draft guidance to 
the Division of Drug Information, Center for Drug Evaluation and 
Research, Food and Drug Administration, 10001 New Hampshire Ave., 
Hillandale Building, 4th Floor, Silver Spring, MD 20993-0002. Send one 
self-addressed adhesive label to assist that office in processing your 
requests. See the SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION section for electronic 
access to the draft guidance document.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Scott N. Goldie, Center for Drug 
Evaluation and Research, 10903 New Hampshire Ave., Bldg. 21, Rm. 3557, 
Silver Spring, MD 20993-0002, 301-796-2055, [email protected], 
or Phillip Kurs, Center for Biologics Evaluation and Research, Food and 
Drug Administration, 240-402-7911.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

I. Background

    FDA is announcing the availability of a draft guidance for industry 
entitled ``Use of Bayesian Methodology in Clinical Trials of Drug and 
Biological Products.'' This document provides guidance to sponsors and 
applicants submitting investigational new drug applications (INDs), new 
drug applications (NDAs), biologics licensing applications (BLAs) or 
supplemental applications on the appropriate use of Bayesian methods in 
clinical trials. The primary focus of this guidance is on the use of 
Bayesian methods to support primary inference in pivotal clinical 
trials designed to support the effectiveness and safety of drug and 
biological products. This draft guidance is being issued to satisfy a 
commitment under the sixth reauthorization of the Prescription Drug 
User Fee Act to publish draft guidance on the use of Bayesian 
methodology in clinical trials of drugs and biological products.
    Bayesian statistics is an approach to estimation and inference 
based on the use of Bayes' theorem. In a Bayesian analysis, data 
collected in a study are combined with a prior distribution that 
expresses a pre-study position about a parameter of interest to form a 
posterior distribution that expresses the updated, post-study position 
about the parameter of interest. The prior distribution often 
represents a summary of data or information available before the study 
begins. The posterior distribution is used for inference and to draw 
conclusions about the study results.
    The draft guidance addresses relevant considerations on how to 
appropriately design clinical trials using Bayesian approaches. The 
document describes settings where Bayesian methods have been used and 
provides recommendations related to the choice of success criteria, 
evaluation of trial operating characteristics, and determination of the 
prior distribution. It includes detailed considerations for use of an 
informative prior to borrow external information in the primary 
analysis of a prospective trial. The document also discusses estimands 
and missing data, software and computation, and documentation and 
reporting considerations for trials that use Bayesian methods.
    This draft guidance is being issued consistent with FDA's good 
guidance practices regulation (21 CFR 10.115). The draft guidance, when 
finalized, will represent the current thinking of FDA on ``Use of 
Bayesian Methodology in Clinical Trials of Drug and Biological 
Products.'' It does not establish any rights for any person and is not 
binding on FDA or the public. You can use an alternative approach if it 
satisfies the requirements of the applicable statutes and regulations.
    As we develop final guidance on this topic, FDA will consider 
comments on costs or cost savings the guidance may generate, relevant 
for Executive Order 14192.

II. Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995

    While this guidance contains no collection of information, it does 
refer to previously approved FDA collections of information. The 
previously approved collections of information are subject to review by 
the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) under the Paperwork Reduction 
Act of 1995 (PRA) (44 U.S.C. 3501-3521). The collections of information 
in 21 CFR 312 pertaining to the submissions of investigational new drug 
applications have been approved under OMB control number 0910-0014. The 
collections of information in 21 CFR 314 and 21 CFR 601 pertaining to 
the submission of new drug applications and biologic licensing 
applications have been approved under OMB control numbers 0910-0001 and 
0910-0338, respectively.

III. Electronic Access

    Persons with access to the internet may obtain the draft guidance 
at https://www.fda.gov/drugs/guidance-compliance-regulatory-information/guidances-drugs, https://www.fda.gov/regulatory-information/search-fda-guidance-documents, https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/guidance-compliance-regulatory-information-biologics/biologics-guidances, or https://www.regulations.gov.


[[Page 1192]]


Lowell M. Zeta,
Acting Deputy Commissioner for Policy, Legislation, and International 
Affairs.
[FR Doc. 2026-00325 Filed 1-9-26; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 4164-01-P