[Federal Register Volume 89, Number 177 (Thursday, September 12, 2024)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 74137-74161]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2024-20616]


 ========================================================================
 Proposed Rules
                                                 Federal Register
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 This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER contains notices to the public of 
 the proposed issuance of rules and regulations. The purpose of these 
 notices is to give interested persons an opportunity to participate in 
 the rule making prior to the adoption of the final rules.
 
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  Federal Register / Vol. 89, No. 177 / Thursday, September 12, 2024 / 
Proposed Rules  

[[Page 74137]]



DEPARTMENT OF HOMELAND SECURITY

Transportation Security Administration

6 CFR Part 37

[Docket No. TSA-2023-0003]
RIN 1652-AA77


Minimum Standards for Driver's Licenses and Identification Cards 
Acceptable by Federal Agencies for Official Purposes; Phased Approach 
for Card-Based Enforcement

AGENCY: Transportation Security Administration (TSA), Department of 
Homeland Security (DHS).

ACTION: Notice of proposed rulemaking (NPRM).

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SUMMARY: This proposed rule would ensure that Federal agencies have 
appropriate flexibility to implement the card-based enforcement 
provisions of the REAL ID regulations after the May 7, 2025, 
enforcement deadline by explicitly permitting agencies to implement 
card-based enforcement in phases. This rulemaking proposes that 
agencies may implement the card-based enforcement provisions through a 
phased enforcement plan if they determine it is appropriate upon 
consideration of relevant factors including security, operational 
feasibility, and public impact. The proposed rule would also require 
agencies to coordinate their plans with DHS, make the plans publicly 
available, and achieve full enforcement by May 5, 2027.

DATES: Interested persons are invited to submit comments on or before 
October 15, 2024.

ADDRESSES: 
    Comments: You may submit comments, identified by the TSA docket 
number to this rulemaking, to the Federal Docket Management System 
(FDMS), a government-wide, electronic docket management system. To 
avoid duplication, please use only one of the following methods:
     Electronic Federal eRulemaking Portal: https://www.regulations.gov. Follow the online instructions for submitting 
comments.
     Mail: Docket Management Facility (M-30), U.S. Department 
of Transportation, 1200 New Jersey Avenue SE, West Building Ground 
Floor, Room W12-140, Washington, DC 20590-0001. The Department of 
Transportation (DOT), which maintains and processes TSA's official 
regulatory dockets, will scan the submission and post it to FDMS.
     Fax: (202) 493-2251.
    See the SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION section for format and other 
information about comment submissions.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: George Petersen, Senior Program 
Manager, REAL ID Program, Enrollment Services and Vetting Programs, 
Transportation Security Administration, 6595 Springfield Center Drive, 
Springfield, VA 20598; telephone: (571) 227-2215; email: 
[email protected].
    Please do not submit comments to these addresses.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: 

Public Participation and Request for Comments

    DHS invites interested persons to participate in this NPRM by 
submitting written comments, including relevant data. Comments that 
will provide the most assistance to DHS will reference a specific 
portion of this proposed rule, explain the reason for any suggestion or 
recommended change, and include data, information, or authority that 
supports such suggestion or recommended change.

Submitting Comments

    DHS will review all comments received on this proposed rule, but 
may choose not to post off-topic, inappropriate, or duplicative 
comments. To submit a comment:
     Go to https://www.regulations.gov and follow the 
instructions for submitting comments for docket number TSA-2023-0003. 
If your material cannot be submitted using https://www.regulations.gov, 
contact the persons listed in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT 
section of this document for alternative instructions.
     All submissions received must include the agency name and 
docket number for this rulemaking.
     Comments posted to https://www.regulations.gov are posted 
without change and will include any personal information provided. For 
more information about privacy and submissions in response to this 
document, see DHS's eRulemaking System of Records notice (85 FR 14226, 
March 11, 2020).

Abbreviations and Terms Used in This Document

DHS--U.S. Department of Homeland Security
DL/IDs--Driver's Licenses and Identification Cards
NPRM--Notice of Proposed Rulemaking
TSA--Transportation Security Administration

Table of Contents

I. Executive Summary
    A. Purpose of the Regulatory Action
    B. Overview of the Proposed Rule
II. Background
    A. The REAL ID Act and Implementing Regulations
    B. Progress Towards Full Implementation
    C. Factors Impacting REAL ID Adoption Rates
III. Summary of the Proposed Rule
    A. Phased Enforcement Plans
    B. Consideration of Further Extending the Card-Based Enforcement 
Deadline
    C. Broad DHS Approach
    D. Phased Enforcement Guidance
IV. Regulatory Analyses
    A. Paperwork Reduction Act
    B. Economic Impact Analyses
    C. Executive Order 13132 (Federalism)
    D. Executive Order 13175 (Tribal Consultation)
    E. Environmental Analysis
    F. Energy Impact Analysis

I. Executive Summary

A. Purpose of the Regulatory Action

    Secure driver's licenses and identification documents are a vital 
component of our national security framework. The REAL ID Act,\1\ 
passed by Congress in 2005, enacted the 9/11 Commission's 
recommendation that the Federal Government ``set standards for the 
issuance of . . . sources of identification, such as drivers 
licenses.'' \2\ The requirements of the

[[Page 74138]]

REAL ID Act and its implementing regulations set minimum security 
standards for the issuance of DL/IDs, which are designed to improve the 
reliability of those State-issued documents. These requirements allow 
Federal agencies that accept State-issued DL/IDs for official purposes 
to determine with greater accuracy whether individuals presenting a DL/
ID are who they say they are.
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    \1\ Public Law 109-13, 119 Stat. 231, 302 (May 11, 2005) 
(codified at 49 U.S.C. 30301 note).
    \2\ The 9/11 Commission Report, Final Report of the National 
Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States (July 2004) 
(9/11 Commission Report), p. 390, available at https://www.govinfo.gov/app/details/GPO-911REPORT (last visited April 16, 
2024).
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    Pursuant to the current REAL ID regulations, after REAL ID card-
based enforcement begins on May 7, 2025, Federal agencies may only 
accept State-issued driver's licenses and identification cards (DL/IDs) 
for official purposes, as defined in the REAL ID Act and regulation, if 
that DL/ID is issued in accordance with REAL ID requirements by a REAL 
ID-compliant State.\3\ In order to fully realize the enhanced security 
provided by the REAL ID requirements, DHS is committed to beginning 
card-based enforcement on May 7, 2025. However, as of January 2024, 
only approximately 56 percent of DL/IDs in circulation nationally are 
REAL ID-compliant.\4\ In 34 States,\5\ less than 60 percent of DL/IDs 
in circulation are REAL ID-compliant, and in 22 States less than 40 
percent are REAL ID-compliant.\6\ Further, because of the history of 
extensions related to REAL ID enforcement, DHS believes that the public 
may continue to expect that additional extensions are likely and not 
feel urgency to obtain a REAL ID. DHS believes this pattern is likely 
to delay increased adoption in many States despite best efforts to 
inform the public, potentially leading to last-minute surges in demand 
for REAL IDs leading up to the deadline.
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    \3\ 6 CFR 37.5(b).
    \4\ Based on REAL ID issuance data, as of January 2024, 
voluntarily submitted monthly to DHS by the compliant states.
    \5\ DHS uses ``states'' and ``licensing jurisdictions'' 
interchangeably throughout this document to refer collectively to 
the 56 different U.S. jurisdictions that issue DL/IDs that are 
governed by the REAL ID regulations. These jurisdictions are the 50 
states, the District of Columbia, and the territories of Puerto 
Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern 
Mariana Islands, and American Samoa. 6 CFR 37.3.
    \6\ See supra note 3.
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    DHS believes this surge could overwhelm States and result in 
backlogs and delays in REAL ID issuance. In light of this, DHS 
anticipates that a significant number of individuals seeking to use 
their DL/ID for a REAL ID official purposes on and after May 7, 2025, 
may not have a compliant DL/ID. DHS recognizes that this could result 
in a situation where individuals are unable to present a compliant DL/
ID to access a Federal facility or board a federally regulated 
commercial aircraft on a large scale. For some agencies, this scenario 
may raise serious concerns related to security, agency operations, and 
potential impact to the public. While these concerns are especially 
acute in an airport security environment, DHS anticipates that other 
Federal agencies that operate facilities visited frequently by the 
general public \7\ may also face similar concerns. This proposed rule 
recognizes these concerns and would provide flexibility by permitting 
agencies to, for a period of up to 2 years, implement REAL ID card-
based enforcement using a phased approach tailored to their specific 
operations.
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    \7\ The requirements of the REAL ID Act and regulation apply 
only in contexts where individuals are required to present an 
identification document to Federal agencies for official purposes. 
See REAL ID Act of 2005 Implementation: An Interagency Security 
Committee Guide (2019), p. 4-7, available at https://www.cisa.gov/resources-tools/resources/isc-guide-real-id-act-2005-implementation 
(last visited April 19, 2024).
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    DHS believes that this approach will be more effective at achieving 
full enforcement than further extensions of the enforcement deadline. 
By demonstrating that the government is preparing for and planning to 
begin enforcement, the proposed rule reiterates for the public that 
REAL ID card-based enforcement will start on May 7, 2025, and provides 
an opportunity for States and the public to prepare for full 
enforcement. After May 7, 2025, when agencies begin full enforcement or 
implement a phased enforcement plan, as appropriate, the public will be 
further incentivized to obtain a REAL ID as they anticipate 
consequences for presenting a non-compliant DL/ID. At the same time, 
the proposed rule is intended to allow a transition to full enforcement 
that mitigates the potential negative impact to agencies and the public 
if full enforcement began immediately on the card-based enforcement 
date. Given the current percentage of REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs that 
have been issued (as a percentage of all DL/IDs), the challenges many 
States are experiencing as they seek to increase adoption of compliant 
DL/ID, and the resulting concerns of Federal agencies, the proposed 
rule would provide important flexibility to agencies to ensure a smooth 
transition to card-based enforcement. The proposed rule balances the 
increased security benefits of beginning card-based enforcement with an 
understanding of the significant risks that some Federal agencies may 
experience as a result of the transition to full enforcement.\8\
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    \8\ ``Full enforcement'' or ``full card-based enforcement'' 
means that an agency only accepts REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs for 
official purposes.
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B. Overview of the Proposed Rule

    Under current regulations, Federal agencies may not accept non-
compliant DL/IDs for REAL ID official purposes when card-based 
enforcement is required on May 7, 2025. While Federal agencies would 
still be required to commence REAL ID card-based enforcement on May 7, 
2025, this proposed rule would provide agencies, for a period of up to 
2 years, flexibility to determine that a phased approach to card-based 
enforcement is appropriate after considering relevant factors including 
security, operational feasibility, and impact to the public offered by 
their agency. The proposed rule seeks to provide an enforcement 
approach that allows agencies to maximize security gains in contexts 
where a swift transition to full enforcement poses little risk, while 
minimizing the risks in contexts where large numbers of individuals 
seeking to use noncompliant DL/IDs raises serious concerns.
    To ensure that agencies' phased enforcement plans consistently and 
appropriately advance the objectives of the REAL ID regulations, this 
proposed rule would require agencies to coordinate their phased 
enforcement plans with DHS and begin full enforcement no later than May 
5, 2027. To ensure transparency and public visibility, the proposed 
rule would require agencies that use a phased enforcement plan to make 
their plan publicly available on their web page and require DHS to make 
publicly available a list of agencies that have coordinated phased 
enforcement plans with DHS. Finally, the proposed rule's preamble 
provides guidance to Federal agencies on types of phased enforcement 
plans that agencies may consider.

II. Background

A. The REAL ID Act and Implementing Regulations

    All but one of the September 11, 2001, terrorist hijackers acquired 
some form of identification document, some by fraud, and used these 
forms of identification to assist them in boarding commercial flights, 
renting cars, and other necessary activities leading up to the 
attacks.\9\ Consequently, the 9/11 Commission recommended that the 
Federal Government set standards for the issuance of more secure 
sources of

[[Page 74139]]

identification for use in, among other activities, boarding aircraft 
and accessing vulnerable facilities.\10\
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    \9\ Id.
    \10\ Id.
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    The REAL ID Act of 2005 (the REAL ID Act) addressed the 9/11 
Commission's recommendation that the Federal Government ``set standards 
for the issuance of . . . sources of identification, such as drivers 
licenses.'' \11\ The REAL ID Act sets minimum security requirements for 
the issuance and production of DL/IDs issued by the States, 
territories, and the District of Columbia in order for Federal agencies 
to accept these documents for official purposes.\12\ Official purposes 
include: (1) accessing Federal facilities, (2) boarding federally 
regulated commercial aircraft, (3) entering nuclear power plants, and 
(4) any other purposes that the Secretary of Homeland Security shall 
determine.\13\
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    \11\ Id.
    \12\ Emergency Supplemental Appropriations Act for Defense, the 
Global War on Terror, and Tsunami Relief, 2005, Public Law 109-13, 
Div. B. title II, sections 201 to 207, May 11, 2005, as amended 
(codified at 49 U.S.C. 30301 note).
    \13\ Id. at section 201.
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    On January 29, 2008, DHS published a final rule implementing the 
REAL ID Act's requirements.\14\ The regulations include both a deadline 
for State compliance with the REAL ID requirements and a separate 
deadline after which individuals must present a REAL ID-compliant 
license or identification card in order for Federal agencies to accept 
the document for official purposes.\15\ DHS refers to these deadlines 
as ``state-based'' and ``card-based'' enforcement, respectively. Under 
existing regulations, card-based enforcement is scheduled to begin on 
May 7, 2025.\16\ On this date, Federal agencies may not accept for 
official purposes a license or identification card issued by a State 
unless that license or card was issued in accordance with the REAL ID 
standards by a REAL ID-compliant jurisdiction.
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    \14\ See 73 FR 5272 (Jan. 29, 2008) (codified as amended at 6 
CFR part 37).
    \15\ 6 CFR 37.51(a) and 37.5.
    \16\ 6 CFR 37.5(b); 88 FR 14473 (Mar. 9, 2023) (extending the 
REAL card-based enforcement deadline from May 3, 2023, to May 7, 
2025).
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    In addition to compliant licenses and identification cards, States 
may issue noncompliant licenses and identification cards, which will 
not be acceptable by Federal agencies for official purposes after the 
card-based deadline, to individuals who are unable or unwilling to 
present the documents and information necessary to obtain a REAL ID-
compliant license or card. These noncompliant licenses and cards must 
(1) clearly state that the card is not acceptable for official 
purposes, and (2) have a unique design or color indicator that clearly 
distinguishes them from compliant licenses and identification 
cards.\17\ The REAL ID regulations authorize, but do not require, 
Federal agencies to accept these noncompliant cards until card-based 
enforcement begins.\18\
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    \17\ 6 CFR 37.71; REAL ID Act sec. 202(d)(11).
    \18\ See 86 FR 23237 (May 3, 2021) (codified at 6 CFR 37.5(c)) 
(clarifying that the deadline by which Federal agencies may no 
longer accept noncompliant driver's licenses and identification 
cards for official purposes applies to all noncompliant cards, 
including state-issued driver's licenses and identification cards 
marked to indicate that they may not be used for official Federal 
purposes), and 88 FR 14473 (extending the deadline by which Federal 
agencies may continue to accept noncompliant cards for official 
purposes until May 7, 2025).
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B. Progress Towards Full Implementation

    Since its enactment in 2005, DHS has worked with the States to 
implement the requirements of the REAL ID Act. DHS has provided 
funding, technical assistance, outreach, and engagement. DHS has 
awarded over $263 million in grant funding to assist in enhancements to 
drivers' license security programs.\19\ These efforts have yielded 
significant progress towards full REAL ID implementation. All 56 
licensing jurisdictions subject to REAL ID have achieved REAL ID 
certification. DHS also completed one phase of a nationwide REAL ID 
advertising campaign (``Be Your REAL ID Self'') and produced an 
advertising toolkit available for free to all DHS stakeholders. DHS 
continues to work with stakeholders to reach full implementation of the 
REAL ID Act and regulations.
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    \19\ Secure Identification State Progress Report-Fiscal Year 
2012 Report to Congress.
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    Considering the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on State and local 
government operations and the desire to reduce further spread by 
encouraging continued social distancing, DHS extended the card-based 
enforcement deadline three times during the pandemic. In April 2020, 
DHS issued a final rule extending the REAL ID card-based enforcement 
date for 1 year until October 1, 2021; \20\ in May 2021, DHS further 
extended the card-based enforcement date until May 3, 2023, through the 
issuance of an interim final rule (IFR) requesting comments; \21\ and, 
on March 9, 2023, DHS issued a final rule finalizing the May 2021 IFR 
and extending the card-based enforcement deadline to May 7, 2025.\22\
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    \20\ 85 FR 23205 (Apr. 27, 2020).
    \21\ 86 FR 23237 (May 3, 2021). DHS received one comment in 
response to the IFR. See, https://www.regulations.gov/comment/DHS-2021-0019-0002. The commenter supported the extension until May 3, 
2023, stating that ``state agencies have either closed offices, 
shortened operating hours, or greatly limited occupancy in 
offices.'' Id.
    \22\ 88 FR 14473.
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C. Factors Impacting REAL ID Adoption Rates

    The U.S. has 56 different jurisdictions that issue DL/IDs and are 
subject to REAL ID requirements, including the 50 States, the District 
of Columbia, and the territories of Puerto Rico, U.S. Virgin Islands, 
Guam, the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands, and American 
Samoa. All but five States offer their residents the option to obtain a 
noncompliant DL/ID for various reasons including State privacy 
requirements, implementation costs to the State and residents, and to 
provide the opportunity to obtain a DL/ID to residents who may not be 
able to obtain a REAL ID-compliant DL/ID.\23\
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    \23\ The five states that only offer REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs 
are Florida, Georgia, Mississippi, Texas, and Wyoming.
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    Based on REAL ID data compiled by compliant licensing 
jurisdictions, as of January 2024, DHS estimates that compliant States, 
territories, and the District of Columbia have issued approximately 162 
million REAL ID-compliant DL/ID, which represent approximately 56 
percent of the population possessing a State-issued DL/ID.\24\ Data 
from the States also indicates that the States have approximately 110 
million noncompliant marked DL/IDs and approximately 14 million legacy 
licenses without any markings (issued before a State's REAL ID 
compliance determination) still in circulation.
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    \24\ DHS began to collect data voluntarily submitted by 
licensing jurisdictions including the total number of DL/IDs, number 
of REAL IDs, number of non-compliant cards, and number of ``legacy'' 
cards in July 2019. Beginning in October 2019, DHS began to receive 
the data on a monthly basis.
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    There are a number of factors that impact the REAL ID adoption rate 
in any given State resulting in significant variability in adoption 
rates from State to State. These factors include: (1) the date a State 
became REAL ID certified and began issuing REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs, 
(2) whether the State offers a noncompliant DL/ID, (3) the number of 
legacy cards (DL/IDs issued before a State became REAL ID certified) 
still in circulation, (4) the validity period of DL/IDs issued by a 
State, (5) the disruption to Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) 
operations and ability to provide services during the COVID-19 
pandemic, and (6) State resource constraints, including budgetary and 
staffing constraints.

[[Page 74140]]

    Generally, States that have become REAL ID certified more recently 
are more likely to have a lower REAL ID adoption rate than States that 
were certified earlier, as their populations have had less time to 
obtain a REAL ID-compliant DL/ID. While some licensing jurisdictions 
have been issuing REAL ID-compliant cards for many years and have high 
adoption rates, nearly half (27) of the jurisdictions have only been 
certified since 2018. States that issue cards with longer validity 
periods generally have lower adoption rates than States that issue 
cards with shorter validity periods, as it takes longer for legacy 
cards to cycle through their validity period. REAL ID adoption rates 
are also influenced by whether a State offers its population the option 
to receive a noncompliant card. There are many reasons States choose to 
offer residents the option to obtain a noncompliant card when an 
individual's DL/ID is due for renewal, including the ability to meet 
eligibility requirements for a compliant DL/ID, potential greater 
monetary and time costs associated with obtaining a compliant DL/ID, 
and the convenience of renewing a legacy or existing noncompliant DL/ID 
online instead of travelling in person to the DMV (this became 
particularly relevant during the extended COVID-19 pandemic). In States 
that offer noncompliant cards, a substantial number of individuals 
choose to obtain a noncompliant card, rather than a compliant DL/ID, 
when they seek to renew an existing legacy or noncompliant DL/ID. DHS 
understands that individuals may choose to obtain a noncompliant card 
for a number of reasons including lower monetary costs, reduced time 
burden of collecting necessary documents, and avoiding in-person visits 
to physical DMV locations.
    As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic, most State licensing agencies 
were forced to close branches or operate at a reduced capacity for 
extended periods of time, limiting the ability of their residents to 
obtain REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs. The impact of pandemic-related 
mitigation measures on REAL ID adoption was accentuated by two 
additional factors. First, 27 jurisdictions were certified between 2018 
and 2022, meaning they had very little or no time to issue REAL ID-
compliant DL/IDs prior to the mitigation measures implemented during 
the pandemic. As a result, these States had only issued a relatively 
low number of REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs when adoption rates started 
falling during, and continuing after, the pandemic. The combination of 
low numbers of compliant DL/IDs issued pre-pandemic and the decreased 
rate of adoption during the pandemic suggests that the current number 
of compliant DL/IDs issued in these States is unlikely to be 
significantly higher than the pre-pandemic number. Second, REAL ID-
compliant DL/IDs cannot be issued without the physical presence of the 
applicant, but during the pandemic many States extended license 
expiration dates and offered individuals the ability to obtain 
noncompliant DL/IDs without an in-person visit to the DMV (through an 
online or mail process, for example). To avoid visiting the DMV many 
individuals who might have otherwise obtained a REAL ID likely chose to 
obtain a noncompliant card instead.
    DHS observed widespread decreases in REAL ID adoption rates coupled 
with significant increases in noncompliant card issuance rates during, 
and immediately after, the pandemic. This trend resulted in reduced 
adoption rates. Prior to the pandemic, the national REAL ID adoption 
rate was approximately 2.5 percent per month, however, this rate 
dropped to less than 0.5 percent in April and May of 2020. As of 
January 2024, the national adoption rate has not reached its pre-
pandemic level and continues to stand at approximately 0.56 percent per 
month. As detailed in the regulatory analyses (section IV(b)(2)(e) 
Adoption of REAL ID-Compliant DL/IDs), DHS estimates that only about 
61.2 percent of DL/IDs in circulation would be REAL ID-compliant by the 
card-based enforcement deadline of May 7, 2025.\25\
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    \25\ Over the last twelve months, between January 2023 and 
January 2024, the national compounded monthly growth rate for the 
adoption of REAL IDs was 0.56 percent. DHS applied the 0.56 
compounded growth rate over the next 16 months to forecast the 
percentage of REAL IDs in circulation by May 2025, relative to all 
DL/IDs in circulation.
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    The significant increase in the issuance of noncompliant cards to 
individuals renewing existing noncompliant and legacy DL/IDs will also 
likely continue to depress adoption rates for several years. All States 
provide their residents with the opportunity to obtain a REAL ID-
compliant DL/ID when their current DL/ID comes up for renewal or if 
they are seeking their first driver's license in the State. Depending 
on the State, DL/IDs may be valid anywhere from 3 to 8 years. Because 
REAL ID adoption has been strongly tied to the renewal cycle and period 
of validity of existing DL/IDs, DHS expected adoption rates to rise as 
residents in States with long validity periods needed to renew their 
DL/IDs. However, the significant increase in issuance of noncompliant 
DL/IDs during the pandemic in States where this option was offered as a 
less burdensome alternative for individuals to renew their DL/IDs 
disrupted this expected effect, as a substantial number of individuals 
chose to obtain a noncompliant DL/ID rather than a compliant DL/ID. The 
impact of the pandemic is then two-fold; it not only drove down 
adoption rates by limiting opportunities for individuals to obtain a 
compliant DL/ID, but also delayed the strongest catalyst for REAL ID 
adoption, the renewal of a legacy DL/ID. As a result, many individuals 
have been issued noncompliant DL/IDs with full validity periods, and 
thus would not be incentivized to obtain a REAL ID based upon renewal 
until their noncompliant DL/ID expires, which depending on the State 
validity period could be years away.

III. Summary of Proposed Rule

A. Phased Enforcement Plans

    DHS believes that beginning card-based enforcement on May 7, 2025, 
is the most effective path to achieve full implementation of the REAL 
ID Act and regulations. The requirements of the REAL ID Act and 
regulations provide significant security benefits by improving the 
accuracy of identity verification processes.\26\ Beginning card-based 
enforcement will accelerate the timeline for full realization of these 
increased security standards. The most recent card-based enforcement 
extension until May 7, 2025, was intended to provide sufficient time 
for individuals to obtain a REAL ID and for DMVs across the country to 
fully accommodate the demand for REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs. This 
proposed rule recognizes the importance of retaining the May 7, 2025, 
deadline to begin enforcement while recognizing that for some agencies 
an immediate transition to full enforcement may not be appropriate in 
light of relevant factors.
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    \26\ See 73 FR 5325-5326, and accompanying Regulatory 
Evaluation, Department of Homeland Security, January 17, 2008, 
Regulatory Evaluation, Docket Number DHS-2006-0030; 9 H.R. Rep. No. 
109-72, 176-185 (2005) available at https://www.congress.gov/109/crpt/hrpt72/CRPT-109hrpt72.pdf (last visited June 17, 2024).
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    Today, the REAL ID adoption rate continues to remain well below the 
pre-pandemic rate. DHS recognizes that without a significant increase 
in the adoption rate leading up to the May 7, 2025, deadline millions 
of noncompliant cards will still be in circulation on that date. Even 
assuming a substantial increase in the adoption rate, it is difficult 
to predict the number of people who will seek to use non-

[[Page 74141]]

REAL ID-compliant IDs for Federal official purposes when enforcement 
begins on May 7, 2025. The population-wide adoption rate will likely 
differ from the adoption rate of specific populations who will need to 
present a REAL ID for official purposes including boarding federally-
regulated commercial aircraft or entering a Federal facility. The 
adoption rate is also likely to differ across geographic areas with 
certain regions having relatively higher or lower concentrations of 
individuals without a REAL ID-compliant DL/ID.
    DHS also acknowledges the possible risks to Federal agencies and 
public impact should a significant number of individuals seek to use 
non-REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs for REAL ID official purposes when 
enforcement begins. In some cases, this may impact how agencies provide 
certain services or conduct business with the public. If many 
individuals seek to use noncompliant DL/IDs at the same location, this 
could result in significant backlogs at access points to Federal 
facilities and TSA security checkpoints with the potential to result in 
significant negative downstream outcomes and poor customer experience. 
In TSA's example, if a large number of individuals arrived at an 
airport security checkpoint with noncompliant DL/IDs,\27\ they would 
not be able use that DL/ID to proceed through screening, potentially 
resulting in missed flights. Additionally, long lines, confusion, and 
frustrated travelers at the checkpoint may significantly increase 
security risks both to passengers and TSA personnel by drawing the 
resources and attention of TSA personnel away from other passengers, 
including those known to pose an elevated risk. Although DHS is most 
engaged with the REAL ID official purpose of boarding federally-
regulated commercial aircraft and TSA's operations, other Federal 
agencies may also experience an impact if they begin full enforcement 
May 7, 2025.
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    \27\ Although a segment of the population may not possess a REAL 
ID, they may have other forms of identification acceptable for 
official purposes (e.g., a U.S. passport, U.S. passport card, or 
military identification). TSA's acceptable ID list is available at 
https://www.tsa.gov/travel/security-screening/identification.
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    Given that approximately 56 percent of DL/IDs in circulation are 
REAL ID-compliant as of January 2024 and the low current adoption 
rates, there is a real possibility of disruptions like those described 
above that could occur if all agencies begin full enforcement on May 7, 
2025. Using the compounded monthly growth rate for the last 12 months 
(0.56 percent), DHS estimates that 61.2 percent of REAL IDs, relative 
to all DL/IDs in circulation, would be REAL ID-compliant.\28\ 
Additionally, even if population-wide adoption rates are significantly 
higher than they are currently, these outcomes may nonetheless unfold 
if adoption rates remain low in specific States or amongst specific 
groups of individuals. Operational disruptions could still occur at 
locations in areas that have a high concentration of individuals 
without REAL IDs or during times of the year when large numbers of 
people who do not fly frequently, and who may not possess a REAL ID or 
other acceptable form of identification, seek to travel. DHS 
anticipates that other agencies that operate facilities nationwide or 
experience significant shifts in the number of individuals presenting 
identification for official purposes throughout the year may have 
similar concerns about the possibility of disruption based on the 
current trend in REAL ID adoption rates.
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    \28\ DHS calculates the compounded monthly growth rate for the 
last 12 months in section IV(b)(2)(e) Adoption of REAL ID-Compliant 
DL/IDs.
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    Recognizing these challenges and the uncertainty in the number of 
individuals Federal agencies may encounter who do not have a REAL ID or 
other acceptable identification on May 7, 2025, Federal agencies would 
benefit from added flexibility to implement enforcement of the REAL ID 
regulations in a manner that takes into account relevant factors 
including security, operational feasibility, and public impact. This 
proposed rule would permit agencies to make a determination that phased 
enforcement is appropriate, in consideration of these factors. The 
rulemaking would allow individual agencies to use their own expertise 
to structure enforcement plans in such a manner that will lead to 
successful enforcement of the REAL ID regulations while mitigating 
potential risks of immediately transitioning to full enforcement on May 
7, 2025.
    The ability to implement the card-based requirements under a phased 
approach after the deadline, for a two-year period, would allow Federal 
agencies to start card-based enforcement in a manner that reduces 
potential disruption to operations, reduces negative public impact, and 
supports a smooth transition to full card-based enforcement and the 
increased security benefits of REAL ID. For example, agencies would 
have the ability to begin enforcement by issuing warning notices or 
through progressive consequences if they determine that those measures 
would most effectively mitigate the risks of an immediate transition to 
full enforcement. Without this flexibility, and especially if the 
adoption rate remains low leading up to May 7, 2025, DHS believes 
Federal agencies could face a serious risk of operational disruption, 
negative public impact, and potential security vulnerabilities.
    Further, implementation of card-based enforcement through a phased 
approach is consistent with DHS' approach to State-based 
enforcement.\29\ Beginning in January 2013, DHS incrementally enforced 
the State-based regulatory deadline prohibiting agencies from accepting 
licenses and cards issued by States that were not compliant with the 
REAL ID standards. The enforcement schedule began with DHS headquarters 
and other Federal facilities in 2014 with the final phase, boarding a 
Federally regulated commercial aircraft, going into effect in 2018.\30\ 
This phased enforcement period allowed States to continue to build the 
infrastructure and institutional capacity to issue REAL ID-compliant 
DL/IDs before enforcement began in the most impactful context (boarding 
federally regulated commercial aircraft).
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    \29\ DHS Releases Phased Enforcement Schedule for REAL ID (Dec. 
20, 2013), available at https://www.dhs.gov/news/2013/12/20/dhs-releases-phased-enforcement-schedule-real-id.
    \30\ TSA to Notify Travelers of Upcoming 2018 REAL ID Airport 
Enforcement--Signs at Airports to Inform Travelers of ID 
Requirements at Security Checkpoints (Dec. 12, 2016), available at 
https://www.dhs.gov/news/2016/12/12/tsa-notify-travelers-upcoming-2018-real-id-airport-enforcement.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DHS' approach to State-based enforcement demonstrated that phased 
enforcement can be effective in achieving compliance with REAL ID 
requirements. This proposed rule would provide Federal agencies the 
flexibility to determine whether a phased plan to implement the REAL ID 
card-based enforcement requirements beginning on May 7, 2025, is 
appropriate for its particular circumstances. Such flexibility would 
allow agencies to begin card-based enforcement as part of measured, 
responsible, and achievable plan leading to full enforcement of the 
REAL ID regulations.
    Additionally, permitting agencies to begin enforcement using a 
phased approach may facilitate increased adoption of REAL ID-compliant 
DL/IDs. It would allow agencies to reiterate that further extensions of 
the May 7, 2025, enforcement deadline are unlikely by demonstrating 
that the government is planning and preparing to begin enforcement. DHS 
anticipates that agencies announcing concrete plans for commencing 
enforcement on May 7, 2025, could likely incentivize individuals to 
obtain a REAL ID-

[[Page 74142]]

compliant DL/ID and result in increased demand at State DMVs. Increased 
demand leading up to and after the deadline may outpace the ability of 
licensing jurisdictions to meet that demand. The TSA REAL ID Program 
has been working with States in preparation for the beginning of REAL 
ID enforcement. During this engagement, some States have expressed 
concern with ability to meet potential demand.\31\ Using a phased 
approach may also allow agencies to provide licensing jurisdictions the 
opportunity to make adjustments to alleviate potential backlogs.
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    \31\ For example, Oregon has recently approved an increase in 
DMV staff dedicated to issuing REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs in 
anticipation of the May 7, 2025, deadline. Oregon Department of 
Transportation (ODOT), ODOT Operational Report to the Oregon 
Transportation Commission (March 5, 2024), available at https://www.oregon.gov/odot/Get-Involved/OTCSupportMaterials/Agenda_F_Operational_Report_PACKET.pdf (last visited April 17, 
2024).
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    This proposed rule also recognizes that individual Federal agencies 
are in the best position to determine how to ensure successful 
implementation of the REAL ID requirements within their operational 
context. In making a determination of whether phased enforcement 
instead of an immediate transition to full enforcement is appropriate, 
agencies must, at a minimum, consider three relevant factors that will 
inform their decision. DHS identified the three factors it believes are 
most likely to impact efficient and successful implementation of card-
based enforcement: security, operational feasibility, and public 
impact.
    In considering security, agencies should weigh both the security 
benefits that card-based enforcement provides as well as potential 
security vulnerabilities that an immediate transition to full 
enforcement might create. For many agencies, DHS anticipates that the 
increased security provided by card-based enforcement weigh in favor of 
an immediate transition to full enforcement. However, in certain 
contexts, an immediate transition to full enforcement may result in 
security vulnerabilities. For example, no longer accepting noncompliant 
DL/IDs may lead to long lines and crowding at access points to Federal 
facilities or airport security checkpoints \32\ creating soft targets 
for terrorists or violent extremists.\33\ Additionally, an atmosphere 
of confusion and frustrated individuals who are denied access risks 
distracting security personnel from correctly executing their 
procedures. Agencies should take a holistic approach in evaluating the 
security implications of transitioning to full card-based enforcement.
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    \32\ The requirements of the REAL ID Act and regulations 
specifically apply to Federal agencies accepting DL/IDs for official 
purposes.
    \33\ See U.S. Department of Homeland Security Soft Targets and 
Crowded Places Security Plan Overview, 5-6 (May 2018), available at 
https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/DHS-Soft-Target-Crowded-Place-Security-Plan-Overview-052018-508_0.pdf (last 
visited April 18, 2024).
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    Regarding operational feasibility, agencies should consider any 
implications that transitioning to full enforcement may have on their 
ability to continue effectively carrying out operations in support of 
their mission. DHS anticipates that in many cases, immediately 
transitioning to full enforcement would have little to no impact on 
agencies' ability to execute their missions and would enhance security. 
Agencies may have limited interactions with the public that necessitate 
members of the public seeking to access Federal facilities that require 
proof of identity for entry. In cases where agencies currently interact 
with members of the public at such facilities, agencies may be able to 
easily adjust the manner in which they interact with the public or 
provide a service to alleviate the need for individuals to use their 
DL/ID for a REAL ID official purpose. For example, agencies may be able 
to hold meetings in facilities that do not require the presentation of 
identification documents or hold virtual meetings. For certain agencies 
whose missions include operations requiring frequent use of 
identification documents for a REAL ID official purpose, an immediate 
transition to full enforcement may challenge an agency's ability to 
effectively carry out its mission if a significant number of 
individuals seek to use noncompliant DL/IDs after the May 7, 2025, 
deadline. For these agencies, implementing card-based enforcement 
through a phased approach would allow the opportunity to observe 
changes in the number of noncompliant cards they encounter after the 
deadline and transition to full enforcement in a manner that ensures 
continuity of operations.
    Finally, agencies should assess whether an immediate transition to 
full enforcement would negatively impact the public and the provision 
of services to the public. The requirements of the REAL ID Act and 
regulation apply only in contexts where individuals must present an 
identification document to Federal agencies for REAL ID official 
purposes.\34\ Card-based enforcement should not impact access to 
Federal facilities that do not require identification (for example, 
public areas of the Smithsonian museums). Card-based enforcement also 
should not impact public services that require identification for 
purposes other than an official purpose as defined by the Act and 
regulation (for example, applying for or receiving Federal benefits is 
not a REAL ID official purpose). However, in cases where a government 
function impacting the public does involve a REAL ID official purpose 
(for example, boarding a federally-regulated commercial aircraft or 
providing a public service that necessitates members of the public 
accessing a Federal facility that requires proof of identity for 
entry), agencies should consider the extent to which an immediate 
transition to full enforcement would impact their ability to provide 
that service.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \34\ See REAL ID Act of 2005 Implementation: An Interagency 
Security Committee Guide (2019), p. 4-7, available at https://www.cisa.gov/resources-tools/resources/isc-guide-real-id-act-2005-implementation.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In addition to these factors, agencies may consider other factors 
they deem relevant and necessary to make their determination. Agencies' 
consideration of all relevant factors will be informed by changes in 
the adoption rate leading up to the card-based enforcement deadline. 
Certain factors may be given more or less weight depending on the 
number of REAL ID noncompliant DL/IDs agencies are likely to encounter 
on and after the deadline. For agencies that determine that beginning 
full card-based enforcement on May 7, 2025, would not pose significant 
risks after considering security, operational feasibility, public 
impact, and other relevant factors, the proposed rule maintains the 
current regulatory default of an immediate transition to full 
enforcement. Agencies that determine that commencing full card-based 
enforcement on May 7, 2025, is not appropriate after considering the 
relevant factors, may utilize a phased approach that would allow them 
to facilitate continued secure and orderly operations and minimize 
impacts to the public while implementing enforcement phases that lead 
to full REAL ID enforcement. This flexibility would allow these 
agencies to maintain operational efficiency; reduce security risks born 
from long lines, incidents, and distractions caused by additional 
identity verification procedures or turning away individuals who do not 
have acceptable identification; decrease potential public backlash to 
security personnel enforcing REAL ID; and limit potential negative 
impacts to the public.
    Should an agency determine that phased enforcement is appropriate, 
DHS

[[Page 74143]]

also recognizes that the individual agency is best positioned to 
structure its enforcement plan to account for its particular 
operational setting. The proposed rule would allow agencies to develop 
a phased enforcement best suited to ensuring a successful transition to 
phased enforcement in their specific context. Although this proposed 
rule does not prescribe the form that phased enforcement plans must 
take in incrementally implementing enforcement of the requirements, DHS 
does provide some options that agencies may consider.\35\ For example, 
agencies' plans may include an initial phase during which warning 
notices are issued and/or a phase involving progressive enforcement 
measures--like a ``three-strikes'' system or other methods--that enable 
agencies to begin enforcement without immediately denying access to 
individuals with noncompliant identification on the card-based 
enforcement deadline.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \35\ More detailed discussion of these options is provided in 
section D. below.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In order to ensure that agencies' enforcement plans appropriately 
advance the objectives of the REAL ID regulations and maintain 
consistent progress towards full enforcement, the plans must be 
coordinated with DHS. The REAL ID Act charges DHS with authority to 
implement the Act's requirements.\36\ Requiring agencies that make a 
determination to implement the REAL ID regulations through a phased 
enforcement plan to coordinate their plan with DHS ensures consistency, 
as appropriate, and DHS oversight of successful implementation of the 
Act and regulatory requirements. Agencies seeking to use a phased 
enforcement plan would be required to coordinate with DHS through the 
TSA REAL ID Program Office.\37\ DHS expects and strongly encourages 
agencies to make a determination on whether a phased enforcement plan 
is appropriate and, where appropriate, develop their plan in advance of 
the May 7, 2025, deadline. However, DHS recognizes that agencies may 
seek to begin full enforcement on the deadline and encounter 
unanticipated challenges or agencies may encounter unforeseen issues in 
implementing the plan they developed. In such cases, agencies may 
coordinate a new or modified phased enforcement plan with DHS after the 
enforcement deadline. Additional information regarding how agencies 
should coordinate with DHS will be provided on the DHS REAL ID web 
page.\38\
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    \36\ 49 U.S.C. 30301 note; 73 FR 5271.
    \37\ On December 29, 2022, the Consolidated Appropriations Act, 
2023 (Pub. L. 117-328), was signed into law, authorizing the 
transfer of the REAL ID Program from the DHS Office of Strategy, 
Policy, and Plans to TSA. On May 22, 2023, the Secretary of Homeland 
Security approved a delegation formally vesting in TSA the authority 
to manage, administer, and coordinate DHS actions necessary for 
implementation of the REAL ID Act.
    \38\ https://www.dhs.gov/real-id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DHS acknowledges the potential for some confusion resulting from 
the possibility of various agencies implementing different phased 
enforcement plans. This proposed rule seeks to mitigate that potential 
confusion by (1) requiring agencies using a phased approach to make 
their plan publicly available on their web page, and (2) requiring DHS 
to post a list of agencies that have coordinated phased enforcement 
plans with DHS on the DHS REAL ID web page \39\ to provide public 
notice of the agencies implementing phased approaches. Agencies should 
also clearly provide their policies for access control, including other 
acceptable forms of identification. Ultimately, even with the risk of 
some confusion, DHS believes this approach is preferable to full 
enforcement on May 7, 2025, with the potential to cause significant 
disruption or another extension of the deadline, which is unlikely to 
incentivize increased REAL ID adoption.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \39\ Id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The proposed rule also would require that any agency that chooses 
to implement card-based enforcement under a phased approach must fully 
enforce the card-based requirements no later than May 5, 2027. On and 
after that date, agencies may not accept noncompliant marked DL/IDs or 
legacy DL/IDs for official purposes. As mentioned above, DHS 
anticipates that shortly before, and as REAL ID card-based enforcement 
begins on May 7, 2025, individuals' urgency to obtain a compliant DL/ID 
will likely increase as they realize that they will need a compliant 
DL/ID when they seek to use their DL/ID for REAL ID official purposes. 
In States with low adoption rates, large numbers of individuals may 
rapidly seek to obtain REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs. This potential rapid 
increase in demand may challenge the capacity of licensing 
jurisdictions and may create backlogs in issuance of REAL ID-compliant 
cards. The two-year window during which agencies may implement 
enforcement in phases is designed, in part, to provide States 
sufficient additional time to meet increases in demand for REAL ID-
compliant cards. Agencies who decide to use a phased enforcement plan 
may choose to implement plans that reach full enforcement in less than 
2 years, but all phased plans must conclude, reaching full card-based 
enforcement, no later than May 5, 2027.
    DHS chose a two-year period during which agencies may implement 
phased enforcement plans to balance delay in fully realizing the 
security benefits of REAL ID with allowing sufficient time for Federal 
agencies to encourage greater adoption rates and limit negative 
enforcement impacts, where appropriate, and for States to meet the 
increased demand as individuals seek to obtain compliant DL/IDs. DHS 
also considered phased enforcement periods of one, three, four, or five 
years' duration. DHS chose 2 years as it believes this time period 
provides sufficient opportunity for individuals to obtain a compliant 
DL/IDs, while maintaining an impending need (incentive) to do so, and 
for States to process them (e.g., time to budget any short term ramp up 
that may be necessary) but also requests public comment on the length 
of the phased enforcement period.
    DHS did not select 1 year because DHS believes this timeframe would 
not provide enough time for the anticipated effects of the enforcement 
deadline and phased enforcement plans to be realized and reflected in 
adoption rates. Many individuals may only seek to use their DL/ID for 
official purposes once or twice a year (for example, boarding a 
commercial flight to travel for a holiday or vacation). In a one-year 
phased enforcement period, individuals who learn of the need to obtain 
a REAL ID-compliant DL/ID towards the end of that one-year period--
possibly through a warning notice as part of an agency's phased 
enforcement plan--may not have sufficient time to obtain a compliant 
DL/ID before full enforcement begins. Additionally, if increased demand 
for compliant DL/IDs leading up to and right after the deadline results 
in backlogs at State DMVs, DHS believes 1 year may not be sufficient 
time for States to make any necessary adjustments to process potential 
backlogs. Although a one-year phased enforcement period would provide a 
shorter delay in obtaining the full security benefits of REAL ID as 
described in the 2008 rule,\40\ DHS does

[[Page 74144]]

not believe it is a long enough period for individuals and States to 
both apprehend the need for action as a result of card-based 
enforcement and take action to obtain or make adjustments needed to 
issue REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \40\ The regulatory evaluation for the Minimum Standards for 
Driver's Licenses and Identification Cards Acceptable by Federal 
Agencies for Official Purposes Final Rule identifies the primary 
benefit of REAL ID as improving security and lessening the 
vulnerability of Federal buildings, nuclear facilities, and aircraft 
to terrorist attacks. Department of Homeland Security, January 17, 
2008, Regulatory Evaluation, Docket Number DHS-2006-0030. https://www.regulations.gov/document/DHS-2006-0030-10704. pgs. 129-130.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DHS did not select three, four, or five years because DHS believes 
a time period longer than 2 years would further delay the security 
benefits of REAL ID and is unlikely to provide the same incentive for 
individuals to obtain a complaint DL/ID. DHS believes that 2 years 
after the card-based enforcement deadline is a sufficient amount of 
time for individuals to obtain and States to provide REAL ID-compliant 
DL/IDs to any eligible individual who seeks to obtain one. DHS believes 
that allowing more time for phased enforcement beyond 2 years is 
unlikely to offer a meaningful additional opportunity for individuals 
and States to take necessary action and could further delay the 
security benefits of REAL ID. Additionally, allowing for phased 
enforcement for more than 2 years may discourage individuals and States 
from prioritizing necessary action.
    Finally, to avoid any confusion about the ability of Federal 
agencies to continue to accept noncompliant marked DL/IDs issued under 
Sec.  37.71, the proposed rule would clarify that Federal agencies may 
continue to accept these licenses past May 7, 2025, if they are doing 
so pursuant to an enforcement plan coordinated with DHS. Although some 
agencies may accept noncompliant marked DL/IDs for official purposes as 
part of a phased enforcement plan, other agencies may choose not to 
accept noncompliant marked DL/IDs as part of their phased enforcement 
plan, may determine that phased enforcement is not appropriate, or 
currently do not accept noncompliant marked DL/IDs for official 
purposes.\41\ Individuals who need to visit a Federal facility should 
check in advance whether the agency requires identification for access 
purposes and, if they do, review the agency's access control policies.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \41\ For example, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) recently 
finalized an update to its DoD-Wide installation security policy and 
is in the process of no longer accepting noncompliant marked cards 
across all of its facilities and installations.
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B. Consideration of Further Extending the Card-Based Enforcement 
Deadline

    As an alternative to the approach this rule proposes, DHS also 
considered further extending the REAL ID card-based enforcement 
deadline to allow for more time for the adoption rate to increase. 
However, DHS believes that maintaining the deadline of May 7, 2025, 
while providing agencies the flexibility to make a determination that 
phased enforcement is appropriate will allow for a faster and smoother 
transition to full card-based enforcement than another extension of the 
deadline.
    DHS prefers the approach proposed in this rule rather than an 
extension for several reasons. First, by maintaining the current 
deadline, agencies that do not determine that phased enforcement is 
appropriate will immediately transition to full card-based enforcement 
on May 7, 2025. This allows the security benefits of REAL ID to be 
fully realized in contexts where full enforcement poses little risk of 
creating other security risks, interfering with operational 
feasibility, or disrupting public services. If the deadline is 
extended, agencies that could immediately transition to full 
enforcement are unlikely to do so before the new deadline, delaying 
security benefits that would otherwise be available. DHS expects that a 
significant number of agencies will begin full enforcement on the 
deadline because doing so is appropriate within their operational 
context.
    Second, DHS believes that the approach provided by this rulemaking 
is likely to have a positive impact on the REAL ID adoption rate, but 
that an extension would not incentivize an increase in demand for REAL 
ID-compliant DL/IDs. Because of the history of extensions related to 
REAL ID enforcement, DHS expects that there is some confusion, lack of 
awareness, and apathy associated with the May 7, 2025, deadline. Given 
the prior history, DHS believes that the public may continue to expect 
that additional extensions are likely and not feel urgency to obtain a 
REAL ID until DHS demonstrates that another extension is unlikely. 
Further, since the most recent extension in March 2023, DHS has 
observed the rate of growth in adoption of compliant DL/IDs remains 
very low (0.56 percent).\42\ As a result, DHS believes that further 
extensions of the card-based enforcement date are not an effective 
means of incentivizing changed behavior.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \42\ Supra note 26.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Instead, DHS expects that allowing agencies to enforce the May 7, 
2025, deadline through a phased approach will incentivize increased 
demand for REAL IDs in at least two ways. First, it will incentivize 
increased adoption rates as the deadline approaches. In part due to 
concerns related to low adoption rates, DHS has previously extended the 
card-based deadline several months before the enforcement date, 
limiting the effect of urgency to obtain a compliant DL/ID related to 
the deadline. As the deadline approaches, and DHS does not issue an 
extension, DHS expects individuals that were otherwise relying on 
another extension to obtain a compliant DL/ID.
    Second, DHS expects individuals who may not be aware of the 
deadline to be incentivized to obtain a compliant DL/ID when they 
experience the consequences of enforcement. During the phased 
enforcement period individuals will experience varying levels of 
consequences including warning notices and progressive enforcement (as 
part of a phased enforcement plan), or full enforcement (where agencies 
transition to full enforcement on the deadline). These consequences 
will incentivize individuals who experience them to obtain a REAL ID. 
Further, because the individuals who most frequently use their DL/ID 
for REAL ID purposes will be the most likely to experience 
consequences, DHS expects that phased enforcement will especially 
incentivize increased adoption amongst this population. This will in 
turn lessen the likelihood of disruption when agencies transition to 
full enforcement because the individuals who most often use State-
issued DL/IDs for REAL ID official purposes will have been motivated to 
obtain a REAL ID during the phased enforcement period. Additionally, 
individuals may share their experience with personal contacts, 
potentially incentivizing others to obtain a compliant DL/ID. DHS 
expects that as awareness that REAL ID is being enforced becomes 
widespread, individuals who intend to use their DL/ID for official 
purposes will be motivated to obtain a compliant DL/ID.

C. Broad DHS Approach

    This proposed rule represents one aspect of DHS' broad approach 
towards transitioning to enforcement of the REAL ID requirements on May 
7, 2025. Although this proposed rulemaking is critical to providing 
agencies with the necessary flexibility to ensure a smooth transition 
to full card-based enforcement, DHS is engaged in a number of efforts 
to improve adoption rates. This layered approach includes heavy 
engagement with States that have low REAL ID adoption rates, a public 
advertising campaign raising awareness of upcoming REAL ID enforcement 
and the benefits of obtaining a REAL ID,\43\

[[Page 74145]]

and engagement with the travel industry. This proposed rule, in 
combination with these other efforts, works to lay the necessary 
foundation for transitioning the nation to enforcement of REAL ID 
requirements on May 7, 2025.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \43\ DHS Launches ``Be Your REAL ID Self'' Public Awareness 
Campaign, January 15, 2021, https://www.dhs.gov/real-id/news/2021/01/15/dhs-launches-be-your-real-id-self-public-awareness-campaign.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

D. Phased Enforcement Guidance

    Under this proposed rule, agencies would have broad discretion to 
determine the structure of their phased enforcement plan so long as 
they comply with the requirements in the rule to:
    (1) Make a determination that a phased enforcement plan is 
appropriate in consideration of relevant factors including security, 
operational feasibility, and public impact;
    (2) Coordinate the phased enforcement plan with DHS;
    (3) Make the phased enforcement plan publicly available on the 
agency's web page; and
    (4) Achieve full enforcement of the carb-based REAL ID requirements 
no later than May 5, 2027.
    The required coordination with DHS will provide DHS with visibility 
on government-wide implementation of REAL ID as well as allow DHS to 
serve in liaison role between agencies where there may be overlapping 
equities. During the coordination process, DHS seek to provide agencies 
guidance on how best to use their phased plan to transition to full 
enforcement. DHS may offer feedback or suggestions related to an 
agency's plan during this process. However, as long as agencies comply 
with the proposed requirements in this rule, they would have broad 
discretion to structure their plans.
    As guidance to Federal agencies and to promote consistency, DHS 
provides the below discussion and examples of enforcement models as 
options agencies may consider if they determine that a phased approach 
to REAL ID card-based enforcement on May 7, 2025, is appropriate. DHS 
anticipates that informed compliance would be the enforcement model 
best suited for most agencies that determine phased enforcement is 
appropriate. Federal agencies that do not make a determination that 
phased enforcement is appropriate and do not coordinate a phased 
enforcement plan with DHS must begin full card-based enforcement on May 
7, 2025. Under full card-based enforcement, Federal agencies may only 
accept a State-issued DL/ID for official purposes if that DL/ID is 
issued in accordance with REAL ID requirements by a REAL ID-compliant 
State.
    Informed Compliance Model. Under an informed compliance model, 
agencies would provide written and verbal notice to any individual that 
seeks to use a valid, unexpired, noncompliant DL/ID for an official 
purpose on or after the card-based enforcement date of May 7, 2025. 
Individuals would then be permitted to continue the process for 
accessing a Federal facility or boarding a commercial aircraft. The 
written notice agencies provide should inform the individual that their 
DL/ID is noncompliant with REAL ID requirements, that they should 
contact their DMV for further information regarding obtaining a REAL 
ID, the date on which the agency will either begin fully enforcing REAL 
ID requirements or will proceed to a subsequent enforcement phase, and 
what to expect if the individual presents a noncompliant DL/ID and no 
other acceptable form of identification after that date. An 
accompanying verbal notice should briefly summarize the written 
notification and, at a minimum, inform the individual they are not in 
compliance with REAL ID requirements and direct the individual to 
reference the written notice. Under this model, agencies would not 
maintain a record of individuals who have presented a noncompliant DL/
ID and have been issued a notice. Individuals who present an alternate 
acceptable form of identification (for example, a passport at the TSA 
checkpoint) would not receive a noncompliance notification. Under this 
model, agencies would continue to employ existing security and identity 
verification processes to confirm the authenticity and validity of the 
noncompliant DL/ID presented.
    DHS has previously utilized an informed compliance model to balance 
the need to begin enforcement of an identity verification-related 
mandate while minimizing the impact of enforcement on commerce. DHS 
effectively employed Informed Compliance as an enforcement mechanism 
for 6 months after it began enforcing the Safe, Accountable, Flexible, 
Efficient Transportation Equity Act: A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-
LU).\44\ SAFETEA-LU mandated that all foreign commercial hazardous 
materials (hazmat) licensed drivers were required to pass a background 
check that was comparable to that required under the USA PATRIOT Act 
for U.S. commercial hazmat drivers. DHS determined that the background 
check required to obtain the U.S. Customs and Border Protection Free 
and Secure Trade (FAST) card was comparable to that required for U.S. 
licensed commercial drivers. However, DHS estimated that at the start 
of enforcement, a large number of drivers would not have accomplished 
the background check process, and there was risk of significant impact 
to cross-border commerce. DHS implemented a 6-month period of Informed 
Compliance at the start of enforcement. At border checkpoints, foreign 
commercial drivers who did not have the FAST background check were 
provided a written notice that they were not in compliance and had 
until a final enforcement date to achieve compliance, but were allowed 
to drive in the United States in the interim. After the period of 
Informed Compliance, drivers without the appropriate background check 
were not allowed into the United States.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \44\ Safe, Accountable, Flexible, Efficient Transportation 
Equity Act: A Legacy for Users, Public Law 109-59, August 10, 2005.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Informed Compliance with Limits. Under an Informed Compliance with 
Limits model, agencies would limit the number of times an individual 
may present a noncompliant DL/ID for an official purpose. Once an 
individual exceeds the prescribed number of allowable attempts, they 
would be denied the ability to use their noncompliant DL/ID for the 
REAL ID official purpose (e.g., use the noncompliant DL/ID for purposes 
of accessing a Federal facility) if they have no other acceptable form 
of identification. Employing this model would likely create significant 
requirements and obligations for the agency. Specifically:
    1. The agency would collect personally identifiable information 
(PII), including name, DL/ID State, and DL/ID number, as well as other 
information necessary to identify and communicate reliably with the 
individual. This PII would need to be collected, maintained, and used 
in accordance with all applicable Federal guidelines and requirements 
related to collection of PII. This may require agencies to obtain an 
Office of Management and Budget (OMB)-approved Paperwork Reduction Act 
(PRA) information collection and prepare a Privacy Impact Analysis, 
System of Record Notice, and other documentation for collection, 
storage, and use of PII.
    2. The individual would attest that the PII provided is theirs and 
accurate.
    3. The agency would need to be able to demonstrate that they 
delivered a notification of noncompliance to the individual (i.e., 
email, text, or other record of transmittal to address acknowledged by 
individuals).

[[Page 74146]]

    4. The agency would need to obtain the individual's acknowledgement 
of receipt of the noncompliance notification at the time the individual 
presents the noncompliant DL/ID.
    5. The agency would need to develop a system to track the number of 
instances the individual presented a noncompliant DL/ID and no other 
acceptable ID (violations).
    6. The agency would need to determine a limit on the number of 
times an individual may be authorized access after presenting a 
noncompliant DL/ID and no other acceptable form of identification.
    7. The agency would need to define an appropriate period of time 
(in days/weeks) during which the individual may continue to use a 
noncompliant DL/ID for purposes of accessing the agency, after which 
the applicant would be given another notification of noncompliance if 
they again presented a noncompliant DL/ID (in other words, how long 
individuals may continue to use their noncompliant DL/ID on the same 
``strike'' before incurring a subsequent ``strike'').
    Agencies would need to choose an appropriate time period during 
which individuals can continue to use the noncompliant DL/ID without it 
being treated as an additional instance of noncompliance (``strike''). 
Agencies should choose a time period appropriate to their operations. 
For agencies where the identity verification for official purposes is 
rare or isolated, it may be appropriate to treat each time an 
individual presents a noncompliant DL/ID as an instance of 
noncompliance. However, DHS believes that in certain cases individuals 
may need to use their DL/ID for a REAL ID official purpose for multiple 
instances within a short period of time (e.g., boarding a return flight 
from a destination or returning to a Federal facility to follow-up on 
the purpose of the initial visit). Individuals may not be able to 
obtain a REAL ID in between such related instances, so in these cases 
agencies may choose a time period that allows for multiple uses of a 
noncompliant DL/ID as part of the same instance of noncompliance. After 
the allotted time period expires, the presentation of a noncompliant 
DL/ID would be treated as another instance of noncompliance.
    Agencies employing an Informed Compliance with Limitations model 
should provide individuals who present a noncompliant DL/ID with 
specific notice whenever an instance is being counted towards that 
individual's limit. The notice should reference the agency's overall 
policy and how the particular instance would affect the individual in 
the future. Agencies may choose to adopt different nomenclature for 
initial and subsequent instances of an individual presenting a 
noncompliant DL/ID. DHS recommends that the language and consequences 
of subsequent notifications under this model should progress in 
seriousness. For example, assume an agency chooses to permit access on 
the first two instances of noncompliance and deny access on the third 
(and any subsequent instance). Agencies may choose to refer to the 
notice issued to an individual presenting a noncompliant card for the 
first time as a ``warning'' and a notice issued on a subsequent 
instance counting against that individual's limit as ``counseling.'' 
Upon the third instance, the individual would be issued a ``final'' 
notification that their State-issued DL/ID is noncompliant and can no 
longer be used for the REAL ID official purpose. The Federal agency 
would deny access to the individual at that time and on all future 
instances unless the individual obtains a REAL ID or presents an 
alternative, acceptable form of identification.
    DHS acknowledges that an Informed Compliance with Limitations 
enforcement plan would likely demand significant agency resources. DHS 
expects many agencies to begin full enforcement on the May 7, 2025, 
deadline. Of the agencies that do determine a phased approach is 
appropriate, DHS expects most will use a simple plan that provides a 
time-limited warning period (i.e., ``Informed Compliance''). Given the 
resources required, including the need for secure systems, DHS expects 
very few agencies to choose an enforcement plan that tracks individual 
instances of noncompliance.
    Additional Considerations. Agencies may determine to implement a 
phased approach that employs one of these models followed by full 
enforcement. For example, an agency may choose to begin enforcement 
with an Informed Compliance Phase or Informed Compliance with Limits 
Phase for a set period of time (e.g., 3 months, 6 months, 1 year) 
followed by a transition to full enforcement at the end of that period. 
Alternatively, agencies may develop a plan that combines both models 
before transitioning to full enforcement. For example, an agency may 
begin enforcement with an initial Informed Compliance Phase for a set 
period of time, followed by an Informed Compliance with Limits Phase 
for an additional period of time, before beginning full enforcement. 
Agencies would have the flexibility to determine the model(s) and 
timing that best suit their operational environment.
    Although DHS believes the models discussed above are likely to be 
the most common and effective, they are not exclusive. Agencies may 
develop plans based on other models. However, all phased enforcement 
plans, whether based on the above models or a different model must be 
coordinated with DHS and must conclude, and agencies must fully enforce 
REAL ID card-based requirements, no later than May 5, 2027. For 
agencies that make a determination that phased enforcement is 
appropriate, the same factors that they considered to make that 
determination should inform their determination of how to structure 
their plan.
    Finally, although REAL ID adoption rates should inform agencies 
when developing their enforcement plans, agencies' plans should be 
consistent across all States and territories. In other words, agencies 
should have a consistent national policy and individuals should not be 
subject to different consequences based on the adoption rate of a 
particular jurisdiction. To reduce the potential for confusion, ensure 
fair and equitable treatment of residents of all States, and ensure 
operational consistency, agencies that have operations or facilities 
spanning multiple States and territories should have one plan for all 
their facilities. Agencies' plans may make distinctions based on the 
types of facilities they operate (e.g., agencies may wish to begin full 
enforcement at certain types of facilities but use a phased approach at 
another type of facility) as long as the same policies apply to the 
same types of facilities nationwide and treat all DL/ID holders 
similarly. For example, agencies may choose to begin full enforcement 
at their headquarters facility while implementing a phased approach at 
field offices where the public more frequently seeks to use DL/IDs for 
official purposes, but (in this example) the same phased enforcement 
policy should apply to all field offices no matter where they are 
located. Agencies should provide information regarding their plans on 
their website and take other appropriate measures to inform the public 
and provide notice regarding their plan.
    DHS acknowledges that some agencies may maintain offices in or 
conduct operations out of leased facilities or multi-tenant facilities 
where the agency does not have direct control over the access control 
policies of the facility. Agencies leasing space in their facilities to 
other agencies and lead tenants as part of facility security

[[Page 74147]]

committees determining physical security polices for multi-tenant 
facilities should develop plans that take into account the operations 
of tenant agencies and potential public impact associated with those 
operations when developing phased enforcement plans. As previously 
discussed, agencies may make distinctions based on the types of 
facilities they operate. Depending on the context, it may be 
appropriate for an agency developing a phased enforcement plan to draw 
a distinction between facilities that are shared by with agencies and 
facilities that are used solely by the agency developing the plan.

IV. Regulatory Analyses

A. Paperwork Reduction Act

    The Paperwork Reduction Act of 1995 (PRA) (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.) 
requires that DHS consider the impact of paperwork and other 
information collection burdens imposed on the public and, under the 
provisions of 44 U.S.C. 3507(d), obtain approval from the OMB for each 
collection of information it conducts, sponsors, or requires through 
regulations. This proposed rule itself does not directly call for new 
collection of information under the PRA as the rulemaking relates to 
Federal agency submission of phased enforcement plans which are not 
covered under the PRA. However, agencies that utilize a phased 
enforcement plan, depending on the requirements associated with their 
respective plan, may need to submit or modify an OMB information 
collection request.

B. Economic Impact Analyses

1. Regulatory Impact Analysis Summary
    Changes to Federal regulations must undergo several economic 
analyses. First, Executive Order (E.O.) 12866 of October 4, 
1993(Regulatory Planning and Review),\45\ as supplemented by E.O. 13563 
of January 21, 2011 (Improving Regulation and Regulatory Review),\46\ 
and E.O. 14094 of April 6, 2023 (Modernizing Regulatory Review) \47\ 
directs each Federal agency to propose or adopt a regulation only upon 
a reasoned determination that the benefits of the intended regulation 
justify its costs. Second, the Regulatory Flexibility Act of 1980 (RFA) 
requires agencies to consider the economic impact of regulatory changes 
on small entities.\48\ Third, the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995 
(UMRA) requires agencies to prepare a written assessment of the costs, 
benefits, and other effects of proposed or final rules that include a 
Federal mandate likely to result in the expenditure by State, local, or 
Tribal governments, in the aggregate, or by the private sector, of $100 
million ($183 million in 2023 dollars) or more annually (adjusted for 
inflation).\49\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \45\ 58 FR 51735 (Oct. 4, 1993).
    \46\ 76 FR 3821 (Jan. 21, 2011).
    \47\ 88 FR 21879 (Apr. 11, 2023).
    \48\ Public Law 96-354, 94 Stat. 1164 (Sept. 19, 1980) (codified 
at 5 U.S.C. 601 et seq., as amended by the Small Business Regulatory 
Enforcement Fairness Act of 1996 (SBREFA)).
    \49\ Public Law 104-4, 109 Stat. 66 (Mar. 22, 1995) (codified at 
2 U.S.C. 1181-1538).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Executive Orders 12866, 13563, and 14094 Assessment
    Under the requirements of E.O. 12866, as amended by E.O. 14094, 
agencies must assess the costs and benefits of available regulatory 
alternatives and, if regulation is necessary, select regulatory 
approaches that maximize net benefits (including potential economic, 
environmental, public health and safety effects, distributive impacts, 
and equity). These requirements were supplemented by E.O. 13563, which 
emphasizes the importance of quantifying both costs and benefits, of 
reducing costs, of harmonizing rules, and of promoting flexibility.
    DHS summarizes the findings:
     In accordance with E.O. 12866, the Office of Management 
and Budget (OMB) has designated this rulemaking a ``significant 
regulatory action'' as defined under section 3(f) of E.O. 12866, as 
amended by E.O. 14094 but not significant under section 3(f)(1). 
Accordingly, the proposed rule has been reviewed by OMB.
     The Secretary, pursuant to 5 U.S.C. 605(b), certifies that 
the proposed rule would not have a significant economic impact on a 
substantial number of small entities. The proposed rule would only be 
applicable to Federal Government agencies, who under the RFA are not 
considered small entities.
     This proposed rule is not likely to result in the 
expenditure by State, local, or Tribal governments, in the aggregate, 
or by the private sector, of $100 million ($183 million in 2023 
dollars) or more annually (adjusted for inflation) such that a written 
statement would not be required under UMRA.
a. OMB A-4 Statement
    The OMB A-4 Accounting Statement presents the annualized costs and 
benefits, as well as the qualitative benefits of the proposed rule.

                                                     Table 1--OMB Circular A-4 Accounting Statement
                                                                      [$ millions]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          Estimates                           Units
                                              --------------------------------------------------------------------
                   Category                                                                               Time                     Notes
                                                Primary      Low        High       Year     Discount     horizon
                                                                                  dollar    rate  (%)    (years)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                        Benefits
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annualized Monetized.........................        N/A        N/A        N/A        N/A           2         N/A  Not Quantified.
Annualized Quantified, But Non-Monetized.....        N/A        N/A        N/A        N/A           2         N/A  Not Quantified.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unquantified.................................    The proposed rule would provide Federal agencies flexibility to   .....................................
                                                decide whether to enforce the REAL ID card-based regulations in a
                                                     phased manner that may reduce security vulnerabilities,
                                                  operational disruption and public impact related to official
                                                Federal purposes. A phased approach would not unnecessarily delay
                                                  REAL ID enforcement for those Federal agencies ready to fully
                                                   implement on the card-based enforcement deadline. A phased
                                                approach would also allow individuals more time to obtain a REAL
                                                ID and may help mitigate potential application backlogs at State
                                                  licensing agencies. Furthermore, a phased approach may reduce
                                                    potential queuing and associated delays at access points.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 74148]]

 
                                                                          Costs
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annualized Monetized.........................      $0.87        N/A        N/A       2023           2           2  .....................................
Annualized Quantified, But Non-Monetized.....        N/A        N/A        N/A        N/A           2         N/A  Not Quantified.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unquantified.................................  Full security benefits associated with REAL ID rule would not be    .....................................
                                               realized, as a result of agencies implementing a phased approach,
                                               until full enforcement occurs. Federal agencies would also incur
                                               costs related to plan implementation, including, but not limited
                                               to training personnel on the policies of the plan, and efforts to
                                               inform individuals of the new identity verification policies
                                               related to plans. Individuals may also incur costs to become aware
                                               of phased enforcement plans and respond accordingly.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                        Transfers
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annualized Monetized Federal Budgetary               N/A        N/A        N/A        N/A           2         N/A  Not Quantified.
 Transfers.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From/To......................................               From:
                                                                   To:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Other Annualized Monetized Transfers.........        N/A        N/A        N/A        N/A           2         N/A  Not Quantified.
                                              ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
From/To......................................               From:
                                                                   To:
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                      Net Benefits
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Annualized Monetized Net Benefits............        N/A        N/A        N/A        N/A           2         N/A  Not Quantified.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                         Effects
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
State, Local, and/or Tribal Government.......  None                                                                .....................................
Small Business...............................  None.                                                               .....................................
Wages........................................  None.                                                               .....................................
Growth.......................................  Not measured.                                                       .....................................
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

b. Need for Regulation
    In January 2008, DHS published the Minimum Standards for Driver's 
Licenses and Identification Cards Acceptable by Federal Agencies for 
Official Purposes Final Rule to implement the requirements of the Act. 
Since the publication of the original Final Rule, DHS extended the 
original compliance date multiple times in response to challenges in 
REAL ID adoption, including but not limited to, the COVID-19 pandemic. 
In accordance with the Final Rule published in March 2023, Federal 
agencies are required to commence card-based enforcement on May 7, 
2025, at which point Federal agencies may not accept for official 
purposes a license or identification card issued by a State unless that 
license or card was issued in accordance with the REAL ID standards by 
a REAL ID- compliant jurisdiction.\50\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \50\ See 88 FR 14473 (Mar. 9, 2023), codified at 6 CFR 37.5.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DHS does not intend to extend the card-based enforcement deadline 
further and intends to commence enforcement of the REAL ID card-based 
requirements on May 7, 2025. However, based on current adoption rates 
of REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs and the projected number of compliant DL/
IDs in circulation by the card-based enforcement date (discussed in the 
succeeding section), DHS believes this proposed rulemaking is necessary 
to provide flexibility to mitigate potential risks related to security, 
operational feasibility, and public impact.
    Without the flexibility the proposed rule permits, agencies may be 
faced with serious concerns that immediate implementation of full 
enforcement may create including security vulnerabilities, operational 
challenges, and disruption of government services. For instance, there 
could be cases where an agency needs to conduct work with a subject-
matter expert or specialist that does not have REAL ID-compliant 
identification and is therefore unable to access the Federal facility. 
Barring a phased enforcement plan, the agency may need to come up with 
alternate accommodations, which could include holding meetings or 
presentations offsite or standing up a virtual option. These options 
may result in additional costs that would otherwise not be incurred if 
the agency was operating under a phased enforcement plan. Additionally, 
absent a phased enforcement plan, individuals without a REAL ID-
compliant DL/ID or acceptable alternative would be unable to board 
federally regulated aircraft upon card-based enforcement. This 
represents a large use case for REAL ID. These individuals would not be 
able to use their noncompliant DL/ID to access the security checkpoint 
which could result in backlogs and other negative outcomes on travel 
(e.g., delayed or missed flights). This may also have a potential 
impact on the customer experience and air travel. Long lines, 
confusion, and frustrated travelers at the checkpoint may also increase 
security risks.\51\ Given the current level of REAL ID adoption across 
various States, the start of card-based enforcement may also create an 
increased demand on States to issue

[[Page 74149]]

REAL IDs, which could result in strained resources and a potential 
delay of application processing time or backlog. Additional disruptive 
impacts to those who currently rely upon non-REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs 
for official Federal purposes may also occur.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \51\ The requirements of the REAL ID Act and regulations 
specifically apply to Federal agencies accepting DL/IDs for official 
purposes. To the extent air carriers also require individuals to 
present a compliant DL/ID for check-in or to drop off luggage, lines 
and crowding may also occur at ticket counters and baggage drop-off 
locations at airports. See U.S. Department of Homeland Security. 
``Soft Targets and Crowded Places Security Plan Overview''. (May 
2018). Available at https://www.cisa.gov/sites/default/files/publications/DHS-Soft-Target-Crowded-Place-Security-Plan-Overview-052018-508_0.pdf. Accessed on Apr. 17, 2024.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Federal agencies that determine an immediate transition to full 
enforcement would raise concerns related to security, operational 
feasibility, or negatively impact the public, would benefit from phased 
enforcement, and would be able to implement a phased enforcement plan, 
coordinated with DHS, to provide a smoother transition to full card-
based enforcement.\52\ This proposed rule would also enable these 
agencies to minimize negative impact to individuals who do not have 
REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs and provide States time to issue and 
individuals time to obtain REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs during initial 
phases of enforcement.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \52\ Card-based enforcement should not impact access to Federal 
facilities that do not require identification (e.g., public areas of 
the Smithsonian). Card-based enforcement also should not impact 
public services that require identification for purposes other than 
an official purpose as defined by the Act and regulation (e.g., 
applying for or receiving Federal benefits is not a REAL ID official 
purpose). However, in cases where provision of a public service does 
involve a REAL ID official purpose, agencies should consider the 
extent to which an immediate transition to full enforcement would 
impact their ability to provide that service.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    TSA requests comments on the assumptions and estimates presented 
within this economic impact analysis. Comments that will provide the 
most assistance to TSA will reference a specific portion of this 
proposed rule, explain the reason for any suggestion or recommended 
change, and include data, information, or authority that supports such 
suggestion or recommended change.
c. Baseline Summary
    The baseline represents DHS' best assessment of what the world 
would be like absent this regulatory action.\53\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \53\ Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs. Circular No. 
A-4. November 9, 2023. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/11/CircularA-4.pdf. Accessed February 12, 2024.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In January 2008, DHS published the Minimum Standards for Driver's 
Licenses and Identification Cards Acceptable by Federal Agencies for 
Official Purposes Final Rule to implement the requirements of the REAL 
ID Act of 2005.\54\ Since the publication of the Final Rule in 2008, 
DHS has delayed the card-based enforcement date for REAL ID multiple 
times due to various challenges that have prevented full enforcement 
including, most recently, the COVID-19 pandemic. The last extension was 
issued in March 2023, when DHS extended the card-based enforcement date 
from May 3, 2023, to May 7, 2025.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \54\ 73 FR 5272, codified at 6 CFR part 37.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Absent this regulatory action, beginning on that date, all Federal 
agencies would be prohibited from accepting non-REAL ID-compliant 
State-issued DL/IDs for REAL ID official purposes.\55\ If an individual 
does not have a REAL ID-compliant DL/ID, the individual may use another 
acceptable form of identification as determined by individual agencies' 
identity verification and access policies.\56\ In accordance with the 
2008 Final Rule, enforcement on the card-based enforcement date would 
be applied unilaterally, across all respective agency locations in the 
United States and its territories including, accessing Federal 
facilities, boarding federally regulated commercial aircrafts (i.e., 
TSA airport security checkpoints), and entering nuclear power plants.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \55\ The Act does not require individuals to present 
identification where it is not currently required to access a 
Federal facility (such as to enter the public areas of the 
Smithsonian).
    \56\ Alternate acceptable forms of identification may include, 
and are not limited to, Enhanced Driver's Licenses (EDL), U.S. 
passports, and passport cards.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DHS estimates that by the card-based enforcement date, 
approximately between 61 and 66 percent of all State-issued DL/IDs 
would be REAL ID-compliant based on adoption data provided by States, 
to DHS, through January 2024.\57\ The lower-end values represent a 
monthly adoption rate similar to current rates through card-based 
enforcement. However, DHS expects that the adoption rate may also 
increase ahead of the card-based enforcement date as a result of both 
natural adoption prior to enforcement and efforts by DHS to drive 
awareness and action. Ahead of the card-based enforcement deadline, DHS 
plans to launch additional phases of its public service campaign ``Be 
Your REAL ID Self'', which in part, provides toolkits for government 
and industry partners. To account for this increased rate of adoption, 
DHS uses a Compounded Monthly Growth Rate of 1.03 percent (compared to 
a current 0.56 percent CMGR) for its higher-end value of 66 percent of 
REAL ID compliant DL/IDs by the card-based enforcement date.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \57\ In section IV(B)(2)(d)(4), Forecast of REAL ID Compliance 
Under Phased Enforcement, DHS estimates 61.2 percent of REAL ID 
Compliant DL/IDs by applying a 0.56 percent compounded monthly 
growth rate which represents the adoption of REAL IDs between 
January 2023 and January 2024. This represents a lower-end forecast 
where DHS assumes the monthly adoption rate of REAL IDs remains 
unchanged leading up to the card-based enforcement date of May 7, 
2025. DHS also presents a high-end forecast of 66.0 percent of REAL 
ID compliant DL/IDs that uses a compounded monthly growth rate of 
1.03 percent and represents the adoption of REAL IDs between January 
2020 and January 2024 which captures periods of high and low 
adoption of REAL IDs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As a result, approximately between 34 percent and 39 percent of DL/
IDs in circulation would be non-compliant (either legacy or non-
compliant marked DL/IDs). Individuals with non-REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs 
would not be permitted to use those DL/IDs to access Federal facilities 
nationwide, including the security checkpoint at airports, unless they 
are able to present an approved alternate form of identification such 
as a passport.\58\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \58\ In 2008, DHS issued the Minimum Standards for Driver's 
Licenses and Identification Cards Acceptable by Federal Agencies for 
Official Purposes Final Rule. In the Regulatory Evaluation for the 
Final Rule, DHS noted that 25 percent of the population already held 
a valid passport and that in a few years' time the Department of 
State anticipated that the figure would increase to approximately 33 
percent. As of 2023, the Department of State reports that 
160,668,889 valid passports (including passport books) are in 
circulation. (https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/about-us/reports-and-statistics.html). Over the 10-year period of 2014 to 
2023, approximately 13.24 percent of passports issued were passports 
cards. The Department of State notes that one customer may also have 
both a passport book and card which counts as two valid passports. 
To prevent double counting for individuals that hold both a passport 
book and a passport card, DHS multiplies 160,668,889 by 1 minus 
13.24 percent to estimate 139,396,328 passports. Using the Census 
Bureau's projected population for 2023, DHS estimates that 
approximately 41 percent of the population has a passport. DHS 
acknowledges that some percentage of individuals with REAL-ID 
compliant DL/IDs may also hold a passport and thus there is 
uncertainty with how many individuals with non-compliant IDs would 
be able to use a passport as an alternate form of identification.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

d. Adoption of REAL ID-Compliant DL/IDs
    Prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States in 
October 2019, DHS estimated that approximately 33 percent, or 90.9 
million of the 274.8 million DL/IDs in circulation, were REAL ID-
compliant.\59\ In April 2020, DHS issued an amended final rule to 
further delay the card-based enforcement date from October 1, 2020, to 
October 1, 2021. DHS noted that the COVID-19 pandemic had caused 
significant disruption citing that State and local government offices, 
including the DMV, have restricted all but the most essential services, 
and that in some cases, had been temporarily closed to the public. In 
October 2020, national REAL ID compliance was approximately

[[Page 74150]]

41 percent.\60\ Three years later, in October 2023, the national REAL 
ID compliance rate increased to approximately 56 percent.\61\ Although 
there has been a modest increase in the number of compliant REAL IDs, 
the overall percentage as of January 2024 remains unchanged at 56 
percent, with the remaining 44 percent of State-issued DL/IDs being 
noncompliant.\62\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \59\ DHS began to collect data from the states including, total 
number of DL/IDs, number of REAL IDs, number of non-compliant cards, 
and number of ``legacy'' cards in July 2019. Monthly reporting 
subsequently began in October 2019.
    \60\ 41.08 Percent of REAL ID-compliant IDs in October 2020 = 
112,807,718 REAL IDs / 274,611,013 Total IDs in Circulation.
    \61\ 56.11 Percent of REAL ID-compliant IDs in October 2023 = 
160,039,272 REAL IDs / 285,246,641 Total IDs in Circulation.
    \62\ 56.42 Percent of REAL ID-compliant IDs in January 2024 = 
162,111,658 REAL IDs / 287,321,596 Total IDs in Circulation.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    However, individual State compliance includes a wider range of 
rates. Table 2 presents REAL ID compliance over time based on the 56 
licensing jurisdictions percentage of REAL IDs issued relative to the 
total number of IDs in circulation for each jurisdiction. As shown in 
the table, State compliance rates have generally increased over time. 
For instance, the number of licensing jurisdictions where the 
percentage of REAL IDs, relative to all DL/IDs in circulation, is 
greater than 75 percent has increased from eight jurisdictions in 
October 2019 to 17 in January 2024. Similarly, the number of licensing 
jurisdictions where the percentage of REAL IDs, relative to all DL/IDs 
in circulation, is less than 25 percent has decreased from 31 in 
October 2019 to 9 in January 2024.

                                      Table 2--REAL ID Compliance Over Time
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                       Number of licensing jurisdictions
Range  (REAL IDs as a percentage of total IDs in circulation ---------------------------------------------------
                      by jurisdiction)                          October      October      October      January
                                                                  2019         2020         2023         2024
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
0%-24%......................................................           31           22           12            9
25%-49%.....................................................           11           15           16           18
50%-74%.....................................................            6            9           12           12
75%-100%....................................................            8           10           16           17
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

1. Compounded Monthly Growth Rates (CMGR)
    DHS began receiving monthly data on the number of REAL IDs for each 
of the 56 licensing jurisdictions in October 2019 (and has monthly data 
through early 2024). Using this data, DHS calculates the growth, or 
increase, in number of REAL IDs month over month, relative to the total 
number of DL/IDs in circulation. Using the historic adoption data, DHS 
calculates CMGRs which represents growth over various intervals of 
time. In subsequent sections, DHS uses CMGRs to forecast REAL ID 
compliance.
    In the first 6 months that DHS began to receive monthly data, 
between October 2019 and March 2020, the CMGR of REAL IDs was 
approximately 2.5 percent. Between April and May of 2020, the CMGR of 
REAL IDs had decreased to 0.5 percent. The CMGR later increased to 
approximately 2.0 percent between June 2020 and October 2020. Over the 
next 3 years, the CMGR of REAL IDs was 1.3 percent between October 2020 
and September 2021, 0.9 percent between October 2021 and September 
2022, and 0.8 percent between October 2022 and September 2023. Over the 
12-month period, between January 2023 and January 2024, the national 
CMGR for the adoption of REAL IDs was 0.56 percent.\63\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \63\ 0.56 percent CMGR (January 2023 through January 2024) = 
((162,111,658 REAL IDs in January 2024 / 151,652,714 REAL IDs in 
January 2023) [caret] (1 / 12)-1).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Projection of Total Number of DL/IDs
    DHS leverages monthly data received from the 56 licensing 
jurisdictions to estimate the total number of DL/IDs in future months. 
The report provides DHS with the total number of DL/IDs in circulation, 
including the proportions of REAL-ID compliant, ``legacy'' cards, and 
non-compliant cards. Based on the January 2024 data from the licensing 
jurisdictions, there were 287,321,596 DL/IDs in circulation.
    DHS uses this value as a starting overall DL/ID population. Next, 
DHS leverages the U.S. Census Bureau's Monthly Population Estimates for 
the United States to estimate the total U.S. population and proportion 
with a DL/ID. DHS first estimates the total population using Census 
Bureau annual population data to calculate a compound annual growth 
rate (CAGR) of 0.60 percent in the U.S. population from 2012 to 
2022.\64\ DHS divides the CAGR of 0.60 percent by 12 to calculate a 
simple compound monthly growth rate (CMGR) of 0.05 percent. DHS then 
uses Census Bureau monthly population estimates through December 2023, 
and applies the simple CMGR of 0.05 percent to forecast the population 
for each month through October 2027.\65\ DHS estimates a total 
population of 355,966,451 in January 2024.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \64\ U.S. Census Bureau. (December 2019). Annual Estimates of 
the Resident Population for the United States: April 1, 2010, to 
July 1, 2019 (NST-EST2019-01). Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2010s-national-total.html. Accessed on May 12, 2023.
    \65\ U.S. Census Bureau. (December 2023). Monthly Population 
Estimates for the United States: April 1, 2020, to December 1, 2024 
(NA-EST2023-POP). Retrieved from https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/popest/2020s-national-total.html. Accessed on 
January 4, 2024.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Last, DHS divides the total number of DL/IDs by the total 
population. As of January 2024, 85.5 percent of the population held a 
driver's license or identification card.\66\ DHS assumes this 
proportion of the population holds true through October 2027 (some 
portion of the adult population may not need a DL/ID, along with most 
of the population under the legal driving age). DHS multiplies the 85.5 
percent proportion by the projected population each month to estimate 
the total number of DL/IDs in circulation.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \66\ 85.5 percent of the population as DL/ID holders in January 
2024 = 287,321,596 (DL/IDs in circulation as of January 2024) / 
355,966,451 (total population in January 2024).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. Forecast of REAL ID Compliance Under Status Quo
    If full card-based enforcement, absent phased enforcement, were to 
take place on May 7, 2025, DHS assumes that the adoption of REAL ID-
compliant DL/IDs would spike leading up to, and continuing for a period 
of time past, the card-based enforcement date as individuals, who may 
otherwise have held off on acquiring a REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs, would 
take steps to ensure they would not be turned away from Federal 
facilities where a REAL ID would be required for official purposes.
    DHS assumes such a spike would be similar to a 23 percent increase 
that the Department of State experienced after

[[Page 74151]]

implementation of the first phase of the Western Hemisphere Travel 
Initiative (WHTI).\67\ Specifically, in fiscal year 2007, the 
Department of State experienced an influx of passport applications 
prior to, and after, the implementation of its first phase of the WHTI, 
which established new document requirements for travelers entering the 
United States from within the Western Hemisphere at airports of entry. 
At the time, the Department of State forecasted it would receive 
approximately 15 million passport applications in the 2007 fiscal year, 
however, it ended up receiving approximately 18.6 million passport 
applications, an approximate 23 percent increase over the original 
estimate.\68\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \67\ The populations affected by WHTI and REAL ID, while not 
exact, are similar in the sense that both initiatives affect 
identity documentation required by the traveling public and are not 
intended to represent the population of those who are obtaining 
government services. DHS believes WHTI represents a situation 
similar enough to REAL ID to serve as a proxy absent better 
information, but also requests public comment on this estimate.
    \68\ Government Accountability Office (GAO). (July 2008). State 
Department: Comprehensive Strategy Needed to Improve Passport 
Operations. GAO-08-891, page 16. Retrieved from https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-08-891.pdf. Accessed on March 15, 2024.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As aforementioned, in January 2024, 56.42 percent or 162.1 million 
of the 287.3 total IDs in circulation are REAL ID-compliant. Based on 
the data range of January 2023 through January 2024, DHS expects that 
through April 2024, the 0.56 percent CMGR for the adoption of REAL IDs 
to remain unchanged,\69\ bringing the percentage of REAL IDs relative 
to all IDs in circulation to 57.3 percent. In the year leading up to 
the card-based enforcement deadline, DHS considers a similar situation 
as the influx of passports leading up to, and through, the 
implementation of WHTI, and applies a 23 percent increase in the 
adoption of REAL IDs (equivalent to a CMGR of 1.61 percent).\70\ Using 
this methodology, by May 2025, approximately 70 percent or 202.7 
million of the total 289.6 million IDs in circulation would be REAL-ID 
compliant.71 72 DHS requests public comment on the 
assumptions related to the forecast of REAL ID compliance under the 
status quo, including the estimate and duration of the spike in REAL ID 
compliance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \69\ See footnote 63.
    \70\ Based upon the WHTI scenario, DHS assumes a 23 percent 
increase to the total number of REAL IDs in April 2024 (164,837,213 
REAL IDs), approximately one-year prior to card based enforcement. 
TSA assumes the 23 percent increase will be spread across the 13 
months leading up to card-based enforcement on May 7, 2025. 
202,749,772 REAL IDs in May 2025 = 164,837,213 REAL IDs in April 
2024 x (1 + 23 Percent). Since the 23 percent increase is spread out 
over the year leading up to the card-base enforcement date, DHS uses 
the resulting number of REAL IDs in May 2025 to calculate a 1.61 
Percent CMGR. 1.61 Percent CMGR = (202,749,772 REAL IDs in May 2025 
/ 164,837,213 REAL IDs in April 2024) [supcaret] (1 / 13)-1).
    \71\ 70.00 Percent of REAL IDs in May 2025 = 202,749,772 REAL 
IDs in May 2025 / 289,641,636 IDs in Circulation in May 2025.
    \72\ Under the status quo, which would result in full, and 
immediate, card-based enforcement on May 7, 2025, DHS estimates a 23 
percent increase in the adoption of REAL IDs in the year leading up 
to card-based enforcement, adopted based on the implementation of 
WHTI. Absent this influx, and under Phased Enforcement beginning May 
7, 2025, DHS evaluates two scenarios in section IV(B)(2)(d)(4), 
Forecast of REAL ID Compliance Under Phased Enforcement. First, a 
lower estimate which assumes no changes to the 0.56 percent CMGR 
which results in 61.2 percent of all DL/IDs in May 2025 being REAL 
ID compliant. Second, a higher estimate which uses a 1.03 percent 
CMGR resulting in 66 percent of all REAL DL/IDs being REAL ID 
compliant in May 2025.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Following the card-based enforcement date, DHS expects the spike to 
remain in place for approximately 4 to 5 months as individuals work to 
secure appointments with their local DMV.\73\ DHS applies the 1.61 
percent CMGR to estimate the percentage of REAL IDs in October 2025. 
DHS estimates approximately 75 percent of DL/IDs in circulation would 
be REAL ID-compliant.\74\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \73\ The WHTI was implemented in two phases with the second 
impacting land and seaports beginning at the end of January 2008 
(2008 fiscal year). As such, following the initial spike in passport 
applications within fiscal year 2007, the Department of State also 
issued a higher than historical number of passports in fiscal year 
2008 despite the total number of passports issued being lower than 
the preceding year. (Department of State. Reports and Statistics. 
U.S. Passports Issued Per Fiscal Year (1996-2023). Retrieved from 
https://travel.state.gov/content/travel/en/about-us/reports-and-statistics.html. Accessed on March 15, 2024.) Absent the proposed 
rule, following the card-based enforcement date, full enforcement 
would begin so there would be no similar resurgence as seen with 
WHTI implementation. However, a similar spike may be seen with the 
implementation of the phased enforcement rule. Under which, 
following the initial spike, there would likely be a decrease in 
adoption rates, before a second spike leading up to the May 2027 
full compliance date.
    \74\ 75.09 Percent of REAL IDs Compliant in October 2025 = 
218,052,964 REAL IDs in October 2025 / 290,370,483 IDs in 
Circulation in October 2025.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    To forecast beyond October 2025, under the status quo of full 
enforcement beginning May 2025, DHS assumes a 50-percent decrease of 
the initial spike in the adoption of REAL IDs between October 2025 and 
October 2026 but requests public comment on the duration and level of 
decrease in the months following card-based enforcement.\75\ DHS 
estimates that by October 2026, one and a half years after the card-
based enforcement deadline, approximately 83 percent of DL/IDs in 
circulation would be REAL ID-compliant.\76\ Subsequently, to estimate 
the percentage of REAL IDs relative to all DL/IDs in circulation, 2 
years after the card-based enforcement date, DHS assumes an additional 
50-percent decrease in the adoption of REAL IDs between October 2026 
and October 2027.\77\ Under this assumption, DHS estimates that 
approximately 87 percent of DL/IDs would be REAL ID-compliant by 
October 2027.\78\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \75\ 11.5 Percent Increase in REAL IDs (One Year After Card-
Based Enforcement) = (23 Percent Initial Surge / 2) x 100. 
Equivalent to a 0.91 Percent CMGR. 0.91 Percent CMGR = ((243,121,919 
REAL IDs in October 2026 / 218,052,964 REAL IDs in October 2025) 
[supcaret] (1 /12)-1).
    \76\ In the Regulatory Evaluation for the 2008 Final Rule, DHS 
assumed 75 percent of the population that hold DL/IDs would seek to 
obtain a REAL ID. DHS describes this assumption further in the 
subsequent section, however, the 83 percent compliance rate by 
October 2026, roughly over one-and-a-half-years post card-based 
enforcement exceeds the 75 percent assumption. DHS notes that the 
adoption rate for REAL ID may decrease when REAL ID reaches a 
natural adoption threshold.
    \77\ 5.75 Percent Increase in REAL IDs = (11.5 Percent Initial 
Surge / 2) x 100. Equivalent to a 0.47 Percent CMGR. 0.47 Percent 
CMGR = ((257,101,923 REAL IDs in October 2027 / 243,121,919 REAL IDs 
in October 2026) [supcaret] (1 /12)-1).
    \78\ Supra note 76.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DHS assumes that once the percentage of REAL IDs, relative to all 
DL/IDs in circulation reach a natural adoption threshold or equilibrium 
\79\ (with all those who want/need a REAL ID largely have them or an 
alternate form of identification), which DHS currently assumes as 75 
percent, the increase in the proportional value over subsequent months 
and years would be minimal.\80\ In 2008, DHS issued the Minimum 
Standards for Driver's Licenses and Identification Cards Acceptable by 
Federal Agencies for Official Purposes Final Rule. The NPRM included 
DHS's previous assumption that 100 percent of the population that hold 
DL/IDs would seek to obtain a REAL ID. However, in the 2008 Final Rule, 
the assumption was revised to 75 percent.\81\ DHS noted that

[[Page 74152]]

the 100 percent assumption was unrealistic if States do not require all 
applicants to obtain REAL IDs. DHS further cited, that if States offer 
a choice of either compliant or non-compliant licenses to applicants, 
that some portion of the population would choose to receive non-
compliant licenses because they may not need a REAL ID for [Federal] 
official purposes or they may already possess a compliant alternate 
form of identification.\82\ While DHS maintains the 75 percent 
assumption from the 2008 Final Rule, DHS acknowledges the uncertainty 
and that the natural threshold for REAL ID compliance may be above or 
below 75 percent.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \79\ The natural adoption threshold or equilibrium is the 
estimated proportion at which TSA assumes most people who want a 
REAL ID largely have them, and it is unlikely to change much in the 
absence of any changes in conditions. This accounts for some portion 
of the population that chooses not to obtain a REAL ID (as States 
continue to offer non-compliant DL/IDs).
    \80\ DHS anticipates future renewal surges associated with 
existing REAL-ID holders, and additional initial adoptions 
associated with population growth.
    \81\ In 2008, DHS noted that approximately 25 percent of the 
population held a valid passport. Furthermore, DHS noted that 20 
percent of the population has never flown on a commercial plane, and 
47 percent flies rarely or never. Combining the two groups, at least 
40 percent of the population would not need to obtain a REAL ID. 
However, DHS assumed some proportion of the combined grouping would 
obtain a REAL ID regardless, reducing the estimate to 25 percent. 
Subtracting this 25 percent estimate from the initial 100 percent 
assumption results in 75 percent that would obtain a REAL ID.
    \82\ Department of Homeland Security. April 28, 2008. Regulatory 
Evaluation for REAL ID Program. Docket DHS-2006-0030. https://www.regulations.gov/document/DHS-2006-0030-10704.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In subsequent sections, DHS refers to the 75 percent assumption as 
the 75 percent threshold. The threshold represents an assumed natural 
point where REAL ID adoption would slow and essentially not grow in 
proportion as all those willing to get a REAL ID have done so. While 
DHS assumed this value to be approximately 75 percent, the actual rate 
could be higher or lower.\83\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \83\ DHS believes there is a greater likelihood of the actual 
REAL ID threshold being greater than 75 percent rather than lower 
than 75 percent.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

4. Forecast of REAL ID Compliance Under Phased Enforcement
    To estimate the percentage of REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs by the card-
based enforcement date, May 7, 2025, DHS uses the 0.56 percent CMGR 
estimated from January 2023 to January 2024.\84\ Next, DHS applies the 
0.56 CMGR over the next 16 months to forecast the percentage of REAL 
IDs in circulation by May 2025, relative to all IDs in circulation.\85\ 
Using this methodology, DHS estimates that approximately 61 percent of 
all IDs in circulation would be REAL ID-compliant by the card-based 
enforcement date.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \84\ Supra note 76.
    \85\ 16 months between January 2024 and May 2025 (card-based 
enforcement begins).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The aforementioned methodology assumes that the next 16 months 
would be similar to the trends seen over the last year.\86\ 
Accordingly, DHS provides an alternate forecast on the percentage of 
REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs in May 2025 using the 1.03 percent CMGR for 
the adoption of REAL ID over last 4-years.\87\ DHS applies the 1.03 
percent CMGR over the 16 months between January 2024 and May 2025 to 
forecast that approximately 66 percent of IDs in circulation by May 
2025 would be REAL ID-compliant by the card-based enforcement date.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \86\ DHS acknowledges that there is a level of uncertainty with 
compliance rates. For instance, closer to the card-based enforcement 
date, the adoption rate may increase. Furthermore, the proposed 
rule, and by extent, subsequent phased enforcement plans adopted by 
some agencies may provide individuals additional time to become 
compliant and thus result in lower or stagnant adoption rates.
    \87\ 1.03 percent CMGR (January 2020 through January 2024) = 
((162,111,658 REAL IDs in January 2024 / 99,076,573 REAL IDs in 
January 2020) [supcaret] (1 / 48)-1). DHS uses the last 4 years of 
data reported by all licensing jurisdictions to represent a more 
comprehensive timeframe, capturing periods of high and low adoption 
of REAL IDs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Using the aforementioned CMGRs, 0.56 percent and 1.03 percent, DHS 
estimates that approximately 61 percent (lower-end of forecast) and 66 
(upper-end of forecast) of all DL/IDs in circulation by May 2025 would 
be REAL ID-compliant, respectively. Table 3 reflects the forecasted 
number of REAL IDs using the two CMGR described in this section.

                       Table 3--Forecasted Number, and Percentage of, REAL IDs in May 2025
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                  Last 12 month trend    Last 4 year trend (1.03
                                                                  (0.56 percent CMGR)         percent CMGR)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Approx. IDs in Circulation....................................                     289,641,636
                                                               -------------------------------------------------
Forecasted Number of REAL IDs.................................              177,187,465              191,027,256
REAL IDs as a Percentage of All IDs...........................                    61.2%                    66.0%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As shown in table 3, under both the 0.56 percent CMGR and the 1.03 
percent CMGR, the forecasted percentage of REAL IDs relative to all DL/
IDs in circulation for May 2025, 61.2 percent and 66.0 percent, 
respectively, falls below the 2008 assumption that 75 percent of all 
holders would seek to obtain a REAL ID. In table 4, DHS illustrates the 
breakdown of how many DL/IDs would need to be REAL ID-compliant by the 
card-based enforcement date to meet the 75 percent threshold. Applying 
the 75 percent assumption from the 2008 Rule results in approximately 
217.2 million of the 289.6 million IDs in circulation, in May 2025, 
would be REAL ID-compliant. As shown, in addition to the 25 percent of 
DL/IDs in circulation that DHS assumes would be non-compliant, an 
additional 40.0 million and 26.2 million DL/IDs that would have been 
assumed to be REAL ID-compliant, respectively, would not be able to be 
used for official purposes beginning May 7, 2025.
    Next, DHS estimates the CMGR needed to reach the 75 percent of REAL 
ID-compliant licenses and identification cards by the card-based 
enforcement date using the January 2024 national compliance rate for 
REAL ID of 56 percent. In the sixteen months between January 2024 and 
May 2025, the average monthly CMGR for the adoption of REAL ID would 
need to increase to 1.85 percent.\88\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \88\ 1.85 percent CMGR = ((217,231,227 REAL IDs to Achieve 75 
Percent Threshold in May 2025 / 162,111,658 REAL IDs in January 
2024) [supcaret] (1 / 16)-1).

                     Table 4--Number of REAL IDs in May 2025 To Achieve 75 Percent Threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         Last 12 month trend    Last 4 year trend (1.03    75% Assumption (1.85
                                         (0.56 percent CMGR)         percent CMGR)            percent CMGR)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Approx. IDs in Circulation...........                                 289,641,636
                                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------
Number of REAL IDs Needed to Achieve
 75% Threshold.......................                             217,231,227 (75.0%)
                                      --------------------------------------------------------------------------
DHS Forecasted REAL IDs..............      177,187,465 (61.2%)      191,027,256 (66.0%)              217,231,227

[[Page 74153]]

 
Difference Between Threshold and            40,043,762 (13.8%)        26,203,971 (9.0%)                 0 (0.0%)
 Forecasted..........................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Next, DHS uses two scenarios to forecast the national compliance 
rate following the card-based enforcement date. First, DHS assumes the 
61.2 percent and 66.0 percent REAL ID adoption trends presented in 
table 3 remain unchanged after the start of card-based enforcement. 
Under this scenario, two years after card-based enforcement, in May 
2027, which is when phased approach plans would need to commence full 
enforcement by, the national REAL ID rate would be 69.1 percent and 
83.4 percent.\89\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \89\ The 83.4 percent compliance rate by May 2027, 2 years after 
the card-based enforcement deadline, exceeds the 75 percent 
assumption from the 2008 Regulatory Evaluation. DHS notes that the 
adoption rate for REAL ID may dampen as it approaches or starts to 
exceed 75 percent of the population.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Following the card-based enforcement date, DHS expects a change in 
the rate of adoption. Phased enforcement plans could result in REAL ID 
compliance being spread over time compared to continued increases in 
compliance if full card-based enforcement went into effect across all 
agencies. Phased enforcement may also incentivize some portion of the 
public to obtain a REAL ID as DHS begins card-based enforcement in May 
2025 without further extensions and as non-compliant DL/ID holders 
attempt to use non-compliant identification for official purposes 
during the period of phased enforcement. For this second scenario, DHS 
uses the midpoint of the two CMGRs (0.56 percent and 1.03 percent) used 
to estimate the national REAL ID rate in May 2025 to estimate the 
national REAL ID rate after the card-based enforcement date. Using this 
methodology, DHS calculates a 0.79 percent CMGR which would likely 
capture a balance between potential high and low adoption rates for 
REAL IDs.\90\ Next, DHS applies the 0.79 percent CMGR to the 61.2 
percent and 66.0 percent estimates for May 2025. Two years after the 
commencement of card-based enforcement, by May 2027, DHS estimates 
approximately 73.1 percent and 78.8 percent of DL/IDs issued would be 
REAL ID-compliant, respectively.\91\ Depending on the scenario, the 75 
percent threshold may be reached as early as July 2026. However, under 
a lower CMGR, in which the CMGR stays at 0.56 percent, the 75 percent 
threshold may not be reached until October 2028.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \90\ 0.79 Percent CMGR = (0.557 Percent CMGR (Last Twelve 
Months) + 1.031 Percent CMGR (Last 48 Months)) / 2.
    \91\ In the Regulatory Evaluation for the 2008 Final Rule, DHS 
assumed 75 percent of the population that hold DL/IDs would seek to 
obtain a REAL ID. However, the 78.8 percent compliance rate by May 
2027, roughly 2 years post card-based enforcement exceeds the 75 
percent assumption. DHS notes that the adoption rate for REAL ID may 
decrease when REAL ID reaches a natural adoption threshold.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

5. Summary of REAL ID Compliance
    Table 5 describes the proportion of all DL/IDs that are REAL ID-
compliant under the baseline scenario and phased enforcement at 6-month 
intervals leading up to, and after, the card-based enforcement date. In 
the baseline scenario, as discussed in section IV.B.2.d.3, DHS assumes 
a spike in REAL ID compliance in the year leading up to the card-based 
enforcement date (1.61 percent CMGR). DHS then assumes a reduction in 
the CMGR to 0.91 percent from October 2025 to October 2026 and to 0.47 
percent after October 2026. This accounts for anticipated increases 
leading up to and through enforcement including natural adoption prior 
to a deadline, additional informational campaigns, and increased 
incentives for those without REAL ID compliant DL/IDs that would be 
denied when using non-compliant DL/IDs for official purposes.
    DHS also presents two phased enforcement scenarios that each 
include a lower and upper bound range, as discussed in section 
IV.B.2.d.4. Under the first phased enforcement scenario, DHS assumes 
trend growth rates remain the same before and after the card-based 
enforcement date (0.56 percent CMGR for the lower bound estimate, 1.03 
percent CMGR for the upper bound estimate). This scenario assumes no 
change in identified trends leading up or after enforcement where the 
lower value represents current adoption rates (unchanged) and the 
higher value accounts for enforcement and phased enforcement impacts on 
adoption rates. Under the second phased enforcement scenario, DHS 
assumes the 0.56 percent CMGR for the lower bound estimate and 1.03 
percent CMGR for the upper bound estimate up to the card-based 
enforcement date. After the card-based enforcement date, DHS assumes a 
change in the CMGR to 0.79 percent, the midpoint of the lower bound and 
upper bound trend rates to represent possible changes in behavior post 
enforcement date. Specifically, that in the lower end, more individuals 
will get REAL DL/IDs and on the higher end, less will seek REAL DL/IDs. 
However, DHS acknowledges there is a level of uncertainty with such 
adoption rates and seeks public comment on anticipated adoption and 
compliance rate impacts.

                                     Table 5--REAL ID Compliance by Scenario
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   Phased enforcement scenario 1   Phased enforcement scenario 2
                                                         (constant rates)            (post enforcement change)
              Month                  Baseline    ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    Lower bound     Upper bound     Lower bound     Upper bound
                                                        (%)             (%)             (%)             (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
May 24..........................            58.2            57.6            58.7            57.6            58.7
Nov 24..........................            63.8            59.3            62.2            59.3            62.2
May 25..........................            70.0            61.2            66.0            61.2            66.0
Nov 25..........................            75.7            63.1            69.9            64.0            69.0
May 26..........................            79.7            65.0            74.1            66.9            72.1
Nov 26..........................            83.6            67.0            78.6            69.9            75.4

[[Page 74154]]

 
May 27..........................            85.7            69.1            83.4            73.1            78.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The baseline and phased enforcement scenarios present different 
trade-offs. Under the baseline scenario, the REAL ID compliance rate 
grows and increases more quickly as a result of more rapid surges in 
adoption. Such a surge in application for REAL IDs, may lead to 
potential backlogs at State DMVs and provide individuals reduced 
options after the enforcement date (e.g., denied DL/ID use for official 
purpose). This may serve as a strong motivator but may also have 
negative consequences (e.g., not allowed to board a commercial flight 
for a critical matter).
    Under a phased approach, DHS forecasts a slower adoption of REAL 
ID, as compared to the baseline, with compliance increases being spread 
over the two-year phased enforcement period. This approach provides 
individuals more time to obtain a REAL compliant DL/ID and allows 
individuals who possess non-compliant DL/IDs to use such DL/IDs for 
official purposes while also creating opportunities for enforcement 
mechanisms (e.g., warnings) that may serve to incentivize the public to 
obtain a REAL ID without, or reduced, negative consequences.
    DHS notes that differences in compliance rates between the baseline 
and scenarios could have large impacts. For example, TSA screens 
approximately 2.5 million passengers a day.\92\ If one percent of those 
passengers were to present a noncompliant DL/ID at a checkpoint, it 
would result in 25,000 passengers being unable to use the noncompliant 
DL/ID at the checkpoint in just a single day. If this was extrapolated 
out a week the number increases to 175,000, then 750,000 in a month and 
2,250,000 in three months all of which may result in operational and 
security concerns. DHS recognizes TSA is a large use case, but impacts 
on a smaller scale could also apply to other Federal agencies. In any 
scenario, DHS believes a phased enforcement approach would help reduce 
challenges that large numbers of non-compliant DL/ID holders could 
present compared to full and immediate enforcement under the baseline.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \92\ Transportation Security Administration. (n.d.). TSA 
checkpoint travel numbers (current year versus prior year/same 
weekday). Passenger Volumes. Retrieved from: https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Accessed on August 1, 2024.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

a. Phased Enforcement Population
    Under the REAL ID Act and regulations, on and after the card-based 
enforcement date, Federal agencies are prohibited from accepting non-
REAL ID-compliant DL/IDs for official purposes. The rulemaking would 
allow Federal agencies to implement the card-based enforcement 
requirement of the REAL ID Act and regulations under a phased approach 
if the agency determines a significant security or operational risk, or 
if public services offered by the agency would be impacted with full 
enforcement. Federal agencies that opt to do so must coordinate a plan 
with DHS. After coordination of a plan with DHS, a Federal agency may 
continue to accept non-REAL ID-compliant licenses and IDs on and after 
May 7, 2025, as part of a phased enforcement plan. To ensure that 
agencies' enforcement plans appropriately advance the objectives of the 
REAL ID regulations, this proposed rule would require agencies' plans 
to include measures for full card-based enforcement by May 5, 2027.
    Based on agency information in the Federal Register, DHS estimates 
there are 434 Federal agencies, including cabinet-level departments, 
who may require REAL IDs for official Federal purposes.\93\ To estimate 
the number of Federal agencies that would submit a phased enforcement 
plan under this rulemaking, DHS considers three factors; (1) agencies 
that are on track to not accept noncompliant marked cards on, or 
before, the card-based enforcement date; (2) agencies that do not 
typically require forms of identification for official purposes (e.g., 
to be presented for entry); and (3) DHS' monthly engagements with 
Federal stakeholders.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \93\ Federal Register. Retrieved from https://www.federalregister.gov/agencies. Accessed on May 10, 2023.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Agencies on Track To Not Accept Noncompliant Marked Cards on or Before 
the Card-Based Enforcement Date
    First, each Federal agency has the authority to set its own minimum 
security access requirements and, if desired, can decide not to accept 
noncompliant marked cards before the card-based enforcement date. For 
example, the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) finalized an update to 
its DoD-wide installation security policy and is in the process of no 
longer accepting noncompliant marked cards across all of its facilities 
and installations.\94\ DHS assumes Federal agencies on track to 
implement enforcement by the effective date, are more likely to not 
pursue a phased enforcement plan.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \94\ DoD will continue to accept state-issued noncompliant 
unmarked ``legacy'' cards until the May 7, 2025, deadline. 
Department of Homeland Security. REAL ID Frequently Asked Questions. 
Retrieved from https://www.dhs.gov/real-id/real-id-faqs. Accessed on 
August 2nd, 2024.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

Agencies That Do Not, or Do Not Typically, Require Forms of 
Identification To Be Displayed for Entry
    Each facility makes a risk-based decision to determine if a form of 
identification is needed for entry, and if so, which forms would be 
accepted. For instance, an agency may require identification as part of 
their overall security strategy including, but not limited to, checking 
the individual against a checklist, or to verify that the individual is 
on an invitation or approved visitors list. If an agency only requires 
an individual to present a form of identification solely to record the 
individual's presence as opposed to for screening and access purposes, 
the requirements under the REAL ID Act of 2005 would not apply.
    There are agencies that do not typically require forms of 
identification for official purposes or only experience of low volume 
of such interactions. A key factor in an agency's consideration may be 
the number of individuals that enter, or pass through, the Federal 
facility in a given day. For some Federal agencies, access to certain 
areas of the facility is presently granted without the

[[Page 74155]]

need for an individual to present a form of identification for entry. 
For instance, the public areas of the Smithsonian and the National Park 
Service (NPS). While the Smithsonian and NPS would still be required to 
enforce REAL ID requirements on the card-based enforcement date, the 
enforcement would be limited to the individuals attempting to access 
the non-public areas. Presumably, as the number of individuals to this 
restricted entry area are significantly fewer than the daily number of 
visitors to Smithsonian facilities and National Parks, agencies like 
the Smithsonian and NPS may not need to submit phased enforcement plans 
due to limited security or operational risks.
DHS' Monthly Engagements With Federal Stakeholders
    In Fall 2023 and the first quarter of 2024, DHS began hosting 
monthly stakeholder engagement sessions with Federal agencies. During 
these sessions, DHS briefed agencies regarding the card-based 
enforcement date and the proposed rulemaking to allow agencies the 
option for a phased approach if they determine such a plan is 
appropriate. Through hosting the sessions, DHS was able to establish a 
greater understanding, across the Government, on which agencies may 
consider a phased approach based on security, operational, or public 
impact risks associated with full enforcement. For instance, some 
agencies noted that they would follow guidance put forth by their 
cabinet-level department. Of the sample of agencies invited, 
approximately 63 percent attended one or more stakeholder meetings. 
Based on feedback from agencies and recurring attendance over months, 
DHS assumes that 50 percent of agencies that attended one or more 
meetings would pursue a phased enforcement plan.
    Based on these three factors, DHS assumes that of the 434 Federal 
agencies, 96 percent would not submit a phased enforcement plan. As 
such, these agencies would join the Department of Defense and begin 
full card-based enforcement on May 7, 2025. While individuals would 
need to present a REAL-ID compliant identification or an approved 
alternate identification for official purposes from that date forth; 
based on engagements with DHS subject matter experts (SMEs) and Federal 
agencies, the vast majority of agencies do not handle a significant 
volume, on a daily basis, of individuals required to present REAL ID 
for official Federal purposes.\95\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \95\ DHS notes that most Federal employees and contractors have 
existing access to their respective facilities via employee 
identification/access cards and would not require separate 
submission of a REAL ID for access.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DHS assumes that the remaining 4 percent of Federal agencies would 
develop and coordinate phased enforcement plans with DHS. The majority 
of such plans are anticipated to represent a low-to-medium use case 
(e.g., visitor access to a facility) with TSA representing a high-use 
case given the volume of individuals boarding federally regulated 
commercial aircraft per day.\96\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \96\ TSA presents a unique and the largest use case for REAL ID 
enforcement. Each day, the agency screens over two million 
passengers at airport security checkpoints across the United States 
and its territories.
    TSA Checkpoint Travel Numbers (Current Year Versus Prior 
Year(s)/Same Weekday). https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. 
Accessed August 18, 2023.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

b. Cost of the Proposed Rule
    The following summarizes the estimated costs of the proposed rule 
over a 2-year period of analysis. Specifically, impacts are evaluated 
between 2024 and 2025 to align with agency efforts to develop a phased 
enforcement plan prior to the current card-based enforcement date.
    Federal agencies would incur costs to familiarize themselves with 
the proposed rule, assess whether to implement a phased enforcement 
plan, and if so, develop a plan. DHS, as the agency administering the 
REAL ID program, would incur costs to coordinate with Federal agencies 
that voluntarily implement a phased enforcement plan.
Compensation Rates
    DHS estimates the labor-related costs for DHS and other Federal 
agencies. First, DHS uses the GS, step 3 wage scale for the Washington 
DC metro area to represent the annual wage for each GS level.\97\ For 
Senior Executive Service (SES) employees, DHS uses the midpoint of the 
range of basic pay as the estimate for the SES annual wage.\98\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \97\ Salary Table No. 2023-DCB, Pay & Leave: Salaries & Wages, 
Office of Personnel Management, https://www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/salaries-wages/salary-tables/23Tables/html/DCB.aspx. DHS typically uses the DHS Modular Cost Model (not 
publicly available) which leverages DC-area locality, Step 3, for 
budgeting to assist with calculating benefits, and other forms of 
compensation for Federal employees. DHS uses Step 3 for wages to 
align with DHS Modular Cost Model.
    \98\ The basic pay for SES employees in 2023 ranged from 
$141,022 to $212,200 with a midpoint of $176,561. Salary Table No. 
2023-ES, Pay & Leave: Salaries & Wages, Office of Personnel 
Management, www.opm.gov/policy-data-oversight/pay-leave/salaries-wages/salary-tables/23Tables/exec/html/ES.aspx.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DHS then multiplies annual wages for each GS level and SES by a 
compensation factor that represents fully loaded compensation rates. 
The compensation factor is the sum of all annual compensation which 
includes wages and internal DHS data on awards, bonuses, personnel 
benefits, and transit benefits, divided by the annual wage.
    DHS calculates a compensation rate per hour by dividing the annual 
fully loaded compensation rates by 2,087, which represents the number 
of annual work hours.\99\ Table 6 summarizes the compensation rates per 
hour for the relevant labor categories DHS uses in the analysis.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \99\ OPM changed the 2,080 work hours to 2,087 by amending 5 
U.S.C. 5504(b), the latter is assumed to capture year-to-year 
fluctuations in work hours. Source: Consolidated Omnibus Budget 
Reconciliation Act of 1985 (Pub. Law 99-272, April 7, 1986).

                                      Table 6--Compensation Rates per Hour
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                     Annual
                  Labor category                    Annual wage   Compensation    compensation     Compensation
                                                                  factor \100\        rate        rate per hour
                                                              a               b       c = a x b    d = c / 2,087
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GS-13.............................................     $119,482           1.353        $161,673           $77.47
GS-14.............................................      141,192           1.349         190,482            91.27
GS-15.............................................      166,079           1.346         223,507           107.09

[[Page 74156]]

 
SES...............................................      176,561           1.345         237,416           113.76
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: Calculation may not be exact due to rounding.

DHS Costs
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \100\ Compensation factors for the different GS levels and SES 
vary because DHS calculates some benefits as a percentage of wages 
and other benefits are static amounts that are equal for all GS 
levels and SES.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DHS would incur costs related to coordinating with Federal agencies 
on their phased enforcement plans to address any potential concerns 
ahead of the REAL ID card-based enforcement date. This includes the 
cost to develop guidance for agencies on phased enforcement and time to 
review and coordinate with agencies on their plans. Furthermore, DHS 
must publish the list of agencies that have coordinated phased 
enforcement plans.
    DHS would develop guidance to inform Federal agencies that they may 
implement REAL ID card-based enforcement using a phased approach, how 
to do so, and the level of coordination necessary with DHS. DHS 
consulted with internal SMEs who estimate a range to develop guidance 
between 60 to 100 hours. DHS uses the midpoint of this range, 80 hours, 
to calculate the cost to develop guidance. DHS assumes this time would 
be split between GS-13, GS-14, and GS-15 employees, with a respective 
burden of 45 percent, 45 percent, and 10 percent. DHS calculates a 
weighted average guidance development compensation rate of $86.64 per 
hour by summing the product of the compensation rates and the 
proportion of burdens for the respective groups of employees 
contributing to the efforts.\101\ DHS estimates a $6,931 guidance 
development cost by multiplying the 80-hour burden and the weighted 
average guidance development compensation rate of $86.64 per hour.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \101\ $86.64 guidance development compensation per hour = (45 
percent GS-13 burden x $77.47 GS-13 compensation per hour) + (45 
percent GS-14 burden x $91.27 GS-14 compensation per hour) + (10 
percent GS-15 burden x $107.09 GS-15 compensation per hour).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DHS coordination would also include reviewing phased enforcement 
plans to ensure compliance with the REAL ID Act and regulations (but 
would not include approval of plans). DHS consulted with internal SMEs 
who estimate a range to coordinate and review plans between 8 and 24 
hours per plan.\102\ DHS uses the midpoint of the range, 16 hours per 
plan, to calculate DHS coordination costs. DHS assumes this time would 
be split between GS-13 and GS-14 employees, with a respective burden of 
50 percent and 50 percent. DHS estimates a weighted average 
coordination compensation of $84.37 per hour by summing the product of 
the compensation rates and the proportion of burdens for the respective 
groups of employees contributing to the efforts.\103\ DHS estimates the 
coordination cost by multiplying the 18 agencies that would develop 
plans, the 16-hour time burden, and weighted average coordination 
compensation rate of $84.37 per hour for a total coordination cost of 
$24,298.\104\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \102\ Phased Enforcement Plan coordination and review time 
estimate is less than it would take for a formal approval.
    \103\ $84.37 coordination compensation per hour = (50 percent 
GS-13 burden x $77.47 GS-13 compensation per hour) + (50 percent GS-
14 burden x $91.27 GS-14 compensation per hour).
    \104\ DHS assumes 4 percent of the 434 Federal agencies would 
submit phased enforcement plans, or about 18 agencies (see Phased 
Enforcement Population). DHS coordination cost = 18 agencies x 16 
hours x $84.37 = $24,298.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DHS would also incur costs to make publicly available a list of 
agencies that have coordinated phased enforcement plans with DHS. DHS 
assumes it would publish the list of agencies on a web page on DHS's 
REAL ID website in year two of the analysis, just prior to the card-
based enforcement date. DHS SMEs estimate it would take 16 hours to 
create, review, approve, and publish content on its existing REAL ID 
website. DHS assumes this time would be split between GS-13 and GS-14 
employees, with a respective burden of 50 percent and 50 percent. DHS 
estimates a weighted average publishing compensation of $84.37 per hour 
by summing the product of the compensation rates and the proportion of 
burdens for the respective groups of employees contributing to the 
efforts.\105\ DHS calculates a publishing cost of $1,350 by multiplying 
the 16-hour burden and weighted average publishing compensation rate of 
$84.37 per hour. DHS assumes incremental maintenance costs for this one 
web page would be minimal because DHS would already maintain the DHS 
REAL ID website. Furthermore, DHS would not need to update the website 
content frequently because all Federal agencies that voluntarily 
implement a phased enforcement plan would need to do so by May 7, 2025.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \105\ $84.37 weighted average publishing compensation per hour = 
(50 percent GS-13 burden x $77.47 GS-13 compensation per hour) + (50 
percent GS-14 burden x $91.27 GS-14 compensation per hour).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DHS estimates the 2-year total cost for phased enforcement 
coordination to be $0.033 million undiscounted and $0.031 million 
discounted at 2 percent. Table 7 describes the total costs of the 
proposed rule to DHS.

                                           Table 7--Total Cost to DHS
                                        [$ Actual dollars, 2023 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                            Total cost
                                          Cost to      Cost to        Cost to    -------------------------------
                 Year                     develop     coordinate   publish list                    Discounted at
                                          guidance                                 Undiscounted         2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  a            b               c           d = a + b + c
                                       -------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024: 1...............................       $6,931           $0              $0          $6,931          $6,795

[[Page 74157]]

 
2025: 2...............................            0       24,298           1,350          25,648          24,652
                                       -------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.............................        6,931       24,298           1,350          32,579          31,447
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

Federal Agency Costs
    All Federal agencies would need to familiarize themselves with the 
proposed rule and phased enforcement concept and determine if a phased 
enforcement plan is necessary. DHS assumes at least one attorney and 
one manager at the GS-14 and GS-15 levels within each agency would 
review the proposed rule. DHS estimates that each person reviewing the 
rulemaking would spend an average of 1.1 hours.\106\ DHS calculates a 
weighted average familiarization compensation rate of $99.18 per hour 
by summing the product of the compensation rates and the proportion of 
burdens for the respective groups of employees contributing to the 
efforts.\107\ DHS estimates the cost for all Federal agencies to 
familiarize themselves with phased enforcement by multiplying the 434 
Federal agencies, the two employees per agency reviewing the 
rulemaking, the 1.1 hours familiarization burden and the weighted 
average familiarization compensation rate of $99.18 per hour for an 
initial familiarization cost of $94,145.\108\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \106\ DHS estimates a familiarization cost and time burden based 
on the time required to read all of the words in the notice of 
proposed rulemaking. DHS also assumes that individuals responsible 
for reviewing the proposed rule read at a rate of 238 words per 
minute. 1.09 familiarization time burden = 15,616 words in NPRM / 
238 words per minute / 60 minutes.
    Brysbaert, Marc. ``How many words do we read per minute? A 
review and meta-analysis of reading rate.'' Journal of Memory and 
Language, Aug. 2019.
    \107\ DHS estimates one GS-14 and one GS-15 employee would spend 
an equal amount of time to review the proposed rule (i.e., a 50 
percent burden for the GS-14 level and 50 percent burden for the GS-
15 level). $99.18 weighted average familiarization compensation per 
hour = (50 percent GS-14 burden x $91.27 GS-14 compensation per 
hour) + (50 percent GS-15 burden x $107.09 GS-15 compensation per 
hour).
    \108\ Note: Calculation may not be exact due to rounding.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In addition to familiarization, all Federal agencies would need to 
determine if based on their specific environment, developing and 
coordinating a phased enforcement plan is necessary. DHS SMEs estimate 
Federal agencies would spend, on average, between 10 to 40 hours to 
make a determination. DHS uses the midpoint of the range, 25 hours, to 
calculate the cost to make a determination. DHS assumes this time would 
be split between a GS-15 and SES, with a respective burden of 50 
percent and 50 percent. DHS calculates a weighted average plan 
determination compensation of $110.43 per hour by summing the product 
of the compensation rates and the proportion of burdens for the 
respective groups of employees contributing to the efforts.\109\ DHS 
estimates the cost for all Federal agencies to determine a need for a 
phased enforcement plan by multiplying the 434 Federal agencies, the 
25-hour burden, and the plan determination compensation rate of $110.43 
per hour. This plan determination cost is $1.20 million.\110\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \109\ DHS assumes the burden to make a plan determination is 
split with 50 percent of the effort by GS-15 employees and 50 
percent by SES employees because the determination would be made by 
senior level employees. $110.43 weighted average plan determination 
compensation per hour = (50 percent GS-15 burden x $107.09 GS-15 
compensation per hour) + (50 percent SES burden x $113.76 SES 
compensation per hour).
    \110\ Note: Calculation may not be exact due to rounding.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Federal agencies that develop phased enforcement plans would incur 
costs to develop and coordinate their respective plans with DHS. DHS 
assumes plan development and coordination would also include preparing 
briefing materials for the public and updating the agency's website to 
inform the public of the phased enforcement plan and policies. DHS SMEs 
estimate Federal agencies would spend, on average, between 150 and 300 
hours to develop plans. DHS uses the midpoint of the range, 225 hours, 
to calculate the cost to develop plans. DHS assumes this time would be 
split between GS-14, GS-15, and SES employees, with a respective burden 
of 45 percent, 45 percent, and 10 percent. DHS estimates a weighted 
average plan development compensation of $100.64 per hour by summing 
the product of the compensation rates and the proportion of burdens for 
the respective groups of employees contributing to the efforts.\111\ 
DHS multiplies the 18 agencies that develop plans,\112\ the 225-hour 
development time burden, and the plan development compensation rate of 
$100.64 per hour to calculate a plan development cost of $407,594.\113\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \111\ $100.64 weighted average plan development compensation per 
hour = (45 percent GS-14 burden x $91.27 GS-14 compensation per 
hour) + (45 percent GS-15 burden x $107.09 GS-15 compensation per 
hour) + (10 percent SES burden x $113.76 SES compensation per hour).
    \112\ DHS assumes 4 percent of the 434 Federal agencies would 
submit phased enforcement plans, or about 18 agencies (see Phased 
Enforcement Population).
    \113\ Note: Calculation may not be exact due to rounding.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Table 8 presents the total Federal cost estimates over the 2-year 
period of analysis which equates to $1.70 million undiscounted and 
$1.67 million discounted at 2 percent.

[[Page 74158]]



                               Table 8--Total Quantified Cost to Federal Agencies
                                        [$ Actual dollars, 2023 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                  Total cost to Federal agencies
                                 Familiarization         Plan           Plan     -------------------------------
             Year                      cost         determination    development                   Discounted at
                                                         cost           cost       Undiscounted         2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                a                b             c           d = a + b + c
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2024: 1.......................            $94,145       $1,198,136      $407,594      $1,699,874      $1,666,543
2025: 2.......................                  0                0             0               0               0
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.....................             94,145        1,198,136       407,594       1,699,874      1,6666,543
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

Unquantified Costs
    The proposed rule would also include non-quantified impacts and 
costs to affected entities. Such impacts are difficult to quantify 
largely due to a high degree of uncertainty. One such impact is the 
delay of benefits from the original rule by implementing the card-based 
enforcement requirement of the REAL ID rule in a phased manner. Full 
security benefits associated with the REAL ID rule would not be 
realized, as a result of agencies implementing a phased approach, until 
full enforcement occurs. As the benefits associated with the 2008 rule 
are difficult to quantify, so too is the quantification of their 
delay.\114\ Nonetheless, this proposed rule would have less unrealized 
or delayed security benefits compared to an extension of the full 
compliance date.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \114\ In GAO Report 12-893 (Driver's License Security), GAO 
highlights the steps taken by States to detect counterfeit documents 
and identity thefts, many of the same requirements of the REAL ID 
Act. For instance, the verification of Social Security as well as 
the use of SAVE have helped reduced the number of fraudulent 
licenses issued. Retrieved from https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-12-893.pdf. Accessed on August 28, 2024.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Federal agencies that voluntarily implement card-based enforcement 
in a phased approach would incur costs related to plan implementation. 
However, DHS assumes there would be a high degree of variability among 
such plans, and agencies would have discretion to determine what 
aspects to include in a phased enforcement plan. Nonetheless, Federal 
agencies would likely incur costs related to training necessary 
personnel on the processes and procedures of phased enforcement plans. 
Federal agencies would also likely incur costs to inform the public or 
appropriate stakeholders impacted about the new identity verification 
procedures related to the agencies' phased enforcement plans (e.g., 
awareness campaign through media, signage at access points, and/or 
providing notices for individuals with non-compliant identification). 
Such costs may extend through agencies' phased enforcement plans, 
beyond years one and two of this analysis. Individuals may also incur 
costs to become aware of phased enforcement plans and respond 
accordingly.
Total Cost of Phased Enforcement Rule
    Table 9 presents the two-year total cost of the phased enforcement 
proposed rule. DHS estimates the total cost of the proposed rule to be 
$1.73 million undiscounted and $1.70 million discounted at 2 percent.

                                 Table 9--Total Cost of Phased Enforcement Rule
                                         [Actual dollars, 2023 dollars]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                           Total cost
                                                              Cost to Federal  ---------------------------------
                     Year                       Cost to DHS       agencies                        Discounted at
                                                                                  Undiscounted          2%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          a                  b              c = a + b
                                               -----------------------------------------------------------------
2024: 1.......................................       $6,931         $1,699,874       $1,706,805       $1,673,339
2025: 2.......................................       25,648                  0           25,648           24,652
                                               -----------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.....................................       32,579          1,699,874        1,732,453        1,697,991
    Annualized................................  ...........  .................  ...............          874,549
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Note: Totals may not add due to rounding.

a. Benefits of the Proposed Rule
    Phased enforcement provides Federal agencies the flexibility on how 
to start enforcing REAL ID card-based enforcement requirements in a 
manner that may reduce operational disruption, security risk, and 
public impact. This is especially relevant for Federal agencies that 
process large numbers of individuals and require identification for 
access purposes. Phased enforcement provides Federal agencies more time 
to implement strategies to engage stakeholders and encourage REAL ID 
adoption. It can also provide time for agencies to develop alternative 
means to ensure continued operations for services or activities that 
require use of REAL ID for official purposes. Allowance of a phased 
approach would not unnecessarily delay REAL ID enforcement for those 
Federal agencies ready to fully implement while also allowing more time 
for those Federal agencies who they themselves, or their stakeholders, 
would benefit from more time to implement.
    Phased Enforcement of the card-based requirement would provide the 
public more time to obtain REAL-ID compliant DL/IDs. This may mitigate 
a potential backlog of applications for States with

[[Page 74159]]

lower compliance rates.\115\ The percentage of DL/IDs that are REAL ID-
compliant lags well behind the national average in some States and 
those States may otherwise experience a surge in REAL ID applications 
in the absence of phased enforcement. States may thus be able to avoid 
an increase in processing times and costs related to measures to 
alleviate backlogs in applications, such as longer operating hours, 
increasing staff, and overtime pay. States and their DMVs may also be 
able to smooth out their operational needs, as the phased enforcement 
approach may mitigate a surge in REAL ID applications prior to full 
enforcement.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \115\ DHS forecasts the rate of REAL IDs under the baseline 
scenario would reach 85.7 percent by May 2027 whereas, DHS forecasts 
the rate under phased enforcement would be between 69.1 to 83.4 
percent by May 2027. This 2.3 to 16.6 difference helps spread the 
processing of REAL ID requests for states as well of reducing 
additional negative impacts associated with rapid enforcement.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    A higher proportion of individuals with compliant identification 
also reduces potential queuing and associated delays. For example, if 
an individual presents valid, non-REAL ID-compliant identification at 
an access point, security or screening workforce may require additional 
time to confirm the individual's identity, and/or explain the 
requirements of REAL ID and thus delay the individual, or not provide 
the individual access.\116\ Such delays may also have downstream 
impacts and cause longer delays for other individuals waiting in line 
at the access point, including for those who may possess a REAL ID-
compliant document. However, under a phased enforcement plan, after 
verifying the individual's identity, the individual may be able to use 
the valid, non-compliant identification to access Federal facilities 
(for a temporary period of time).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \116\ Delays may be short and straightforward or lengthy and 
more complex. For example, simply explaining the REAL ID 
requirements and providing an alternative form of identification may 
only take a few minutes whereas individuals unable to use a 
noncompliant DL/ID may escalate the situation, refusing to leave the 
access point, request to speak with supervisors, or even assaulting 
security or screening workforce which represent longer customer 
interactions and consume more resources (e.g., additional workforce 
and/or law enforcement) to resolve each interaction.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Finally, any benefits to individuals or States associated with 
procuring a noncompliant card would be extended to those impacted 
through the phase-in period of card-based enforcement to the extent the 
agencies such individuals interact with for official purposes determine 
to implement card-based enforcement through a phased approach, in place 
of full and immediate enforcement on May 7, 2025; however, the security 
benefits associated with full enforcement would also be delayed.
b. Alternatives Considered
    DHS considered one alternative in addition to the baseline scenario 
and the proposed rule.
Alternative 1: Baseline Scenario
    In the no action baseline scenario (Alternative 1), full card-based 
enforcement would begin in May 2025 without further extensions of the 
enforcement date or a phased approach to enforcement.
    In the baseline scenario, absent phased enforcement, DHS forecasts 
that by May 2025, approximately 70 percent of all State-issued DL/IDs 
would be REAL ID-compliant. Full card-based enforcement when a 
significant percentage of the population could present non-compliant 
identification may increase operational risks to Federal agencies; 
especially agencies that process a large number of individuals per 
day.\117\ Federal agencies would be unable to accept noncompliant DL/
IDs and may have to turn away individuals unable to present REAL ID-
compliant identification, or another form of acceptable identification. 
Federal agencies would also spend additional time adjudicating such 
transactions where individuals present non-compliant identification, 
including handling additional questions and waiting for individuals to 
present compliant identification. Individuals without compliant 
identification and those waiting in long queues could become frustrated 
and cause incidents, such as a backlash to security personnel enforcing 
REAL ID.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \117\ For example, if an agency processes 2.5 million visitors a 
day and 30 percent of visitors have non-compliant DL/IDs, it could 
potentially result in 750,000 visitors being unable to use their DL/
IDs to gain access per day. Such large numbers of individuals with 
non-compliant identification could result in operational and 
security concerns as well as negative public impacts.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The additional time required to adjudicate transactions involving 
the presentation of non-compliant identification could lead to delays 
including accessing Federal facilities and federally regulated 
commercial aircraft, which could impact both individuals with non-
compliant identification and individuals waiting in queues, increasing 
their time burden and associated opportunity costs. These delays could 
have a significant effect on the travel industry, with individuals 
unable to present compliant identification at TSA checkpoints being 
denied access, or individuals caught in long queues, that may result in 
canceling, postponing, or adjusting travel plans and incurring 
associated costs. This may include making alternative travel 
arrangements whose substitution may include less efficient modes of 
transportation (e.g., travelers deciding to drive rather than fly).
    While nationwide, approximately 56.4 percent of all DL/IDs are REAL 
ID-compliant as of January 2024, there is a wide distribution of 
compliance across States with some lagging well behind the national 
average. Implementation of full card-based enforcement in May 2025 may 
lead to a surge in REAL ID applications and visits to the Department of 
Motor Vehicles, especially in those States with lower levels of REAL ID 
adoption. As a result, States may incur additional costs to resolve 
such potential surges in applications, including, but not limited to, 
operating longer hours, hiring more workers, and providing overtime pay 
for employees. Surges in applications could also lead to additional 
costs for individuals, including increased processing times to obtain a 
REAL ID and increased waiting times at the Department of Motor 
Vehicles.
    For example, in 2007, DHS and the Department of State implemented 
the WHTI rule.\118\ The WHTI rule imposed new passport requirements for 
U.S. citizens and nonimmigrant aliens from certain countries entering 
the United States from countries within the Western Hemisphere. The 
WHTI rule led to a larger than anticipated increase in passport 
applications in 2007, longer passport processing times from 5 weeks to 
10 to 12 weeks, and longer lines and crowded waiting rooms at 
Department of State facilities. The Department of State incurred $42.8 
million in costs (in 2007 dollars) to alleviate the surge in 
applications through additional staff, overtime pay, travel for 
temporary staff, telephone services for its call centers, equipment, 
and furniture.\119\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \118\ 71 FR 68412 (November 24, 2006).
    \119\ State Department: Comprehensive Strategy Needed to Improve 
Passport Operations, United States Government Accountability Office 
(Jul. 28, 2008), available at https://www.gao.gov/assets/gao-08-891.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Implementing full card-based REAL ID enforcement would allow for 
the full realization of the benefits of the REAL ID rule without 
further delay. Specifically, DHS believes the primary benefit of REAL 
ID enforcement, as discussed in the 2008 rule, would be a potential 
increase to U.S. national security by reducing the vulnerability to 
criminal or terrorist activity of Federal buildings, nuclear 
facilities, and aircraft. An additional possible benefit of the

[[Page 74160]]

2008 rule includes reducing fraud, by increasing the difficulty of 
fraudulently obtaining a valid license and increasing the cost to 
create false licenses.
    DHS rejects Alternative 1, however, as it limits the flexibility 
Federal agencies can use to implement REAL ID card-based enforcement. 
The potential for large numbers of individuals presenting non-REAL ID-
compliant identification as a means to verify identity to access 
Federal facilities could cause operational risks to Federal agencies; 
especially those that process large numbers of individuals (e.g., the 
airport security environment). Surges in REAL ID applications may also 
cause negative impacts to States in issuing REAL IDs, and individuals 
in obtaining them. The proposed rule allows Federal agencies to take 
such factors into account and make determinations about how to address 
potential full card-based enforcement risks associated with the card-
based enforcement date.
Alternative 2: Extension of Card-Based Enforcement Deadline
    In this alternative, DHS would issue a rule to extend the card-
based enforcement date from May 7, 2025, to some date between one and 
two years later (Alternative 2). Alternative 2 is distinct from the 
proposed rule because it extends the card-based enforcement date for 
all Federal agencies and does not specifically include an option to 
implement card-based enforcement through a phased approach. Under 
Alternative 2, Federal agencies would be prohibited from accepting 
noncompliant cards by a new date.
    While Alternative 2 would afford the public more time to obtain 
REAL ID-compliant identification, implementing Alternative 2 would 
potentially allow those without REAL ID-compliant DL/ID to prolong 
obtaining such document. REAL ID adoption rates may continue to 
decrease further then they have over the last 12 months. Issuing 
another extension may send a signal to individuals and industry that 
full implementation of REAL ID is delayed indefinitely and that 
additional extensions continue to be real possibilities thereby not 
providing sufficient encouragement or incentive for the public to 
obtain REAL IDs.
    This alternative would also delay the security benefits associated 
with the REAL ID rule across all Federal agencies until the extended 
card-based enforcement date.
    Under the Alternative 2, DHS and Federal agencies would be able to 
avoid the quantifiable and unquantifiable costs related to the proposed 
rule. For Federal agencies, this includes phased enforcement plan 
development and implementation. Alternative 2 also shares some of the 
same benefits as the proposed rule. For example, extending the card-
based enforcement date would provide the public more time to obtain a 
REAL ID and may mitigate a potential backlog of applications for States 
with lower compliance rates (or may simply further put off the issue 
without a real solution). States may be able to avoid costs related to 
measures to alleviate backlogs in applications for a period of time. 
The alternative would help Federal agencies that process large numbers 
of individuals avoid operational disruption in May 2025 because 
agencies would be able to continue to accept valid and unexpired non-
REAL ID-compliant identification.
    DHS does not prefer Alternative 2. Since 2020, DHS has extended the 
card-based enforcement date on three occasions and by nearly 5 years. 
DHS believes the vast majority of Federal agencies would be ready to 
fully enforce the card-based deadline on May 7, 2025. Another extension 
may give the public and industry the impression that REAL ID would 
continue to be delayed and not enforced in the near future. Thus, the 
proposed rule maintains the effective date for those Federal agencies 
able to implement yet also provides flexibilities for those who would 
benefit from additional time.
1. Regulatory Flexibility Assessment
    The RFA of 1980 requires agencies to consider the potential impact 
of regulations on small businesses, small government jurisdictions, and 
small organizations during the development of their rules.\120\ The 
Secretary, pursuant to 5 U.S.C. 605(b), certifies that the proposed 
rule would not have a significant economic impact on a substantial 
number of small entities. The NPRM would only be applicable to Federal 
agencies who under the RFA are not considered small entities. 
Accordingly, DHS is not required to prepare a regulatory flexibility 
analysis. See 5 U.S.C. 603, 604.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \120\ Public Law 96-354, 94 Stat. 1164 (Sept. 19, 1980), 
codified at 5 U.S.C. 601 et seq., as amended by the Small Business 
Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act of 1996 (SBREFA).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Unfunded Mandates Reform Act Assessment
    Title II of the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (UMRA), Public 
Law 104-4, establishes requirements for Federal agencies to assess the 
effects of their regulatory actions on State, local, and Tribal 
governments and the private sector. Under section 202 of the UMRA, DHS 
generally must prepare a written Statement, including a cost-benefit 
analysis, for proposed and final rules with ``federal mandates'' that 
may result in expenditures by State, local, and Tribal governments in 
the aggregate or by the private sector of $100 million or more 
(adjusted for inflation) in any one year.
    Before DHS promulgates a rule for which a written statement is 
required, section 205 of the UMRA generally requires TSA to identify 
and consider a reasonable number of regulatory alternatives and adopt 
the least costly, most cost-effective, or least burdensome alternative 
that achieves the objectives of the rulemaking. The provisions of 
section 205 do not apply when they are inconsistent with applicable 
law. Moreover, section 205 allows DHS to adopt an alternative other 
than the least costly, most cost-effective, or least burdensome 
alternative if the proposed or final rule provides an explanation why 
that alternative was not adopted. Before DHS establishes any regulatory 
requirements that may significantly or uniquely affect small 
governments, including Tribal governments, it must develop under 
section 203 of the UMRA a small government agency plan. The plan must 
provide for notifying potentially affected small governments, enabling 
officials of affected small governments to have meaningful and timely 
input in the development of DHS regulatory proposals with significant 
Federal intergovernmental mandates, and informing, educating, and 
advising small governments on compliance with the regulatory 
requirements.
    When adjusted for inflation, the threshold for expenditures becomes 
$183 million in 2023 dollars. DHS has determined that this proposed 
rule does not contain a Federal mandate that may result in expenditures 
that exceed that amount either for State, local, and Tribal governments 
in the aggregate in any one year thus a written statement would not be 
required under UMRA. DHS will publish a final analysis, including its 
response to public comments, when it publishes a final rule.

C. Executive Order 13132 (Federalism)

    A rule has federalism implications under E.O. 13132, ``Federalism'' 
(64 FR 43255, Aug. 10, 1999), if it has a substantial direct effect on 
State governments, on the relationship between the national government 
and the States, or on the distribution of power and responsibilities 
among the various levels of government. DHS has analyzed this proposed 
rule under E.O. 13132 and has determined that although this rulemaking 
may indirectly affect the States, it does not impose

[[Page 74161]]

substantial direct compliance costs or preempt State law. The direct 
compliance costs to States for implementation of REAL ID requirements 
were already accounted for in DHS 2008 final rule.\121\ In fact, the 
proposed rule is responsive to concerns expressed by State agencies 
regarding the upcoming deadline and would potentially provide States' 
residents more time to obtain a REAL ID-compliant DL/ID if agencies 
determine to implement card-based enforcement through a phased 
approach. The key impact of the rulemaking is to allow Federal agencies 
the authority to provide a phased enforcement approach. DHS has 
determined that the proposed rule is consistent with E.O. 13132.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \121\ See 73 FR 5272 (Jan. 29, 2008).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

D. Executive Order 13175 (Tribal Consultation)

    This proposed rule does not have tribal implications under E.O. 
13175, ``Consultation and Coordination with Indian Tribal 
Governments,'' because it does not have a substantial direct effect on 
one or more Indian tribes, on the relationship between the Federal 
Government and Indian tribes, or on the distribution of power and 
responsibilities between the Federal Government and Indian tribes.

E. Environmental Analysis

    DHS reviews actions to determine whether National Environmental 
Policy Act (NEPA) applies to them and, if so, what degree of analysis 
is required. DHS Directive 023-01 Rev. 01 (Directive) and Instruction 
Manual 023-01-001-01 Rev. 01 (Instruction Manual) establishes the 
procedures that DHS and its components use to comply with NEPA and the 
Council on Environmental Quality (CEQ) regulations for implementing 
NEPA, 40 CFR parts 1500 through 1508.
    The CEQ regulations allow Federal agencies to establish, with CEQ 
review and concurrence, categories of actions (``categorical 
exclusions'') which experience has shown do not individually or 
cumulatively have a significant effect on the human environment and, 
therefore, do not require an environmental assessment or environmental 
impact statement. 40 CFR 1507.3(b)(2)(ii), 1508.4. For an action to be 
categorically excluded, it must satisfy each of the following three 
conditions: (1) the entire action clearly fits within one or more of 
the categorical exclusions; (2) the action is not a piece of a larger 
action; and (3) no extraordinary circumstances exist that create the 
potential for a significant environmental effect. Instruction Manual 
section V.B(2)(a)-(c).
    The clarification and notice provided by this proposed rule fits 
within categorical exclusion A3(d) ``Promulgation of rules...that 
interpret or amend an existing regulation without changing its 
environmental effect.'' Instruction Manual, appendix A, table 1. 
Furthermore, the proposed rule is not part of a larger action and 
presents no extraordinary circumstances creating the potential for 
significant environmental impacts. Therefore, the proposed rule is 
categorically excluded from further NEPA review.

F. Energy Impact Analysis

    The energy impact of this rulemaking has been assessed in 
accordance with the Energy Policy and Conservation Act (EPCA), Public 
Law 94-163, as amended (42 U.S.C. 6362). DHS has determined that this 
rulemaking would not be a major regulatory action under the provisions 
of the EPCA.

List of Subjects in 6 CFR Part 37

    Document security, Driver's licenses, Identification cards, Motor 
vehicle administrations, Physical security.

    For the reasons set forth above, the Department of Homeland 
Security proposes to amend 6 CFR part 37 as follows:

PART 37--REAL ID DRIVER'S LICENSES AND IDENTIFICATION CARDS

0
1. The authority citation for part 37 continues to read as follows:

    Authority: 49 U.S.C. 30301 note; 6 U.S.C. 111, 112.

0
2. Amend Sec.  37.5 by revising paragraphs (b) and (c) and adding 
paragraph (d) and (e) to read as follows:


Sec.  37.5  Validity periods and deadlines for REAL ID driver's 
licenses and identification cards.

* * * * *
    (b) Except as provided in paragraph (d) of this section, on or 
after May 7, 2025, Federal agencies shall not accept a driver's license 
or identification card for official purposes from any individual unless 
such license or card is a REAL ID-compliant driver's license or 
identification card issued by a State that has been determined by DHS 
to be in full compliance as defined under this subpart.
    (c) Through the end of May 6, 2025, Federal agencies may accept for 
official purposes a driver's license or identification card issued 
under Sec.  37.71. Except as provided in paragraph (d) of this section, 
on or after May 7, 2025, Federal agencies shall not accept for official 
purposes a driver's license or identification card issued under Sec.  
37.71.
    (d) Federal agencies may implement the requirements of paragraphs 
(b) and (c) of this section through a phased enforcement plan if the 
agency determines phased implementation is appropriate. Federal 
agencies that implement phased enforcement plans authorized by this 
paragraph (d) must:
    (1) Make a determination that a phased enforcement plan is 
appropriate in consideration of relevant factors including security, 
operational feasibility, and public impact;
    (2) Coordinate the phased enforcement plan with DHS;
    (3) Make the phased enforcement plan publicly available on the 
agency's web page; and
    (4) Achieve full enforcement of the requirements of paragraphs (b) 
and (c) of this section no later than May 5, 2027.
    (e) DHS will make publicly available a list of agencies that have 
coordinated phased enforcement plans with DHS pursuant to paragraph (d) 
of this section.

    Dated: September 6, 2024.
David P. Pekoske,
Administrator.
[FR Doc. 2024-20616 Filed 9-11-24; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 9110-05-P