[Federal Register Volume 89, Number 107 (Monday, June 3, 2024)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 47474-47481]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2024-11839]


=======================================================================
-----------------------------------------------------------------------

ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

40 CFR Part 52

[EPA-R03-OAR-2024-0162; FRL-11869-01-R3]


Air Plan Approval; District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia; 
Update of the Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for the Washington-MD-VA 
2008 8-Hour Ozone National Ambient Air Quality Standard Maintenance 
Area

AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

ACTION: Proposed rule.

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to 
approve state implementation plan (SIP) revisions submitted by the 
District of Columbia (the District), State of Maryland (MD), and 
Commonwealth of Virginia (VA). The revisions update the

[[Page 47475]]

motor vehicle emissions budgets (MVEBs) and the onroad and nonroad 
(except for marine, airport, and railroad) mobile emissions for 
volatile organic compounds (VOC) and nitrogen oxides (NOX) 
for the years 2025 and 2030. EPA proposes to approve the updated MVEBs 
and updates to the applicable onroad and nonroad mobile emissions for 
VOC and NOX for the years 2025 and 2030. EPA is also 
approving the allocation of a portion of the safety margins for VOC and 
NOX in the ozone maintenance plan to the 2025 and 2030 
MVEBs. The MVEBs will be available for transportation conformity 
purposes, in accordance with the requirements of the Clean Air Act 
(CAA).

DATES: Written comments must be received on or before July 3, 2024.

ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-R03-
OAR-2024-0162 at www.regulations.gov, or via email to 
[email protected]. For comments submitted at Regulations.gov, follow 
the online instructions for submitting comments. Once submitted, 
comments cannot be edited or removed from Regulations.gov. For either 
manner of submission, EPA may publish any comment received to its 
public docket. Do not submit electronically any information you 
consider to be confidential business information (CBI) or other 
information whose disclosure is restricted by statute. Multimedia 
submissions (audio, video, etc.) must be accompanied by a written 
comment. The written comment is considered the official comment and 
should include discussion of all points you wish to make. EPA will 
generally not consider comments or comment contents located outside of 
the primary submission (i.e., on the web, cloud, or other file sharing 
system). For additional submission methods, please contact the person 
identified in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section. For the full 
EPA public comment policy, information about CBI or multimedia 
submissions, and general guidance on making effective comments, please 
visit www.epa.gov/dockets/commenting-epa-dockets.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Gregory Becoat, Planning & 
Implementation Branch (3AD30), Air & Radiation Division, U.S. 
Environmental Protection Agency, Region III, 1600 John F Kennedy 
Boulevard, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania 19103. The telephone number is 
(215) 814-2053. Mr. Becoat can also be reached via electronic mail at 
[email protected].

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: On November 14, 2023, September 6, 2023, and 
October 11, 2023, the District, Maryland, and Virginia, respectively, 
formally submitted requests to update the 2008 8-Hour Ozone national 
ambient air quality standard (NAAQS) maintenance plan for the 
Washington DC-MD-VA 2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS Maintenance Area (hereafter 
``the Washington Area'' or ``the Area''). These revisions update the 
Area's maintenance plan to include revised onroad and nonroad MVEBs for 
VOCs and NOX that reflect the updated EPA Motor Vehicle 
Emission Simulator (MOVES3.04) model and increased onroad vehicle 
emission rates.

I. Background

    On April 15, 2019 (84 FR 15108), EPA approved Maryland and 
Virginia's requests to redesignate to attainment their portions of the 
Washington Area from marginal nonattainment to attainment of the 2008 
8-Hour Ozone NAAQS, as well as the VOC and NOX MVEBs for the 
years 2014, 2025, and 2030 for the entire Area. On July 16, 2019 (84 FR 
33855), EPA approved the District's request to redesignate to 
attainment its portion of the Washington Area from marginal 
nonattainment to attainment of the 2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS.
    Motor vehicle budgets are the projected levels of controlled 
emissions from the transportation sector (mobile sources) that are 
estimated in the SIP to provide for maintenance of the ozone standard. 
The transportation conformity rule (40 CFR part 93, subpart A) allows 
States to update existing SIP-approved MVEBs from older emissions 
models (e.g., MOVES2014 or MOVES2010), if it is determined that it is 
appropriate to update the MVEBs with a new emissions model for future 
conformity determinations (in this case MOVES3.04).
    The current SIP-approved MVEBs for the Area were developed using 
the Highway Mobile Source Emission Factor Model (MOVES2014a) to 
generate onroad estimates and projections. On January 7, 2021 (86 FR 
1106), EPA published an updated MOVES3 model, which became mandatory 
for use in transportation conformity analyses effective January 10, 
2023.

II. Summary of SIP Revision and EPA Analysis

A. Requirements for Revising Maintenance Plans

    EPA's MOVES3 guidance document describes how and when to use the 
latest version of the MOVES emissions model for SIP development, 
transportation conformity determinations, general conformity 
determinations, and other purposes.\1\ The Area submitted a SIP 
revision that included an update to the MVEBs for VOCs and 
NOX, that were initially developed using the MOVES2014a 
model, for the years 2025 and 2030. The revised MVEBs for the onroad 
MVEBs were developed using the MOVES3.04 emissions model and followed 
the requirements described in EPA's MOVES3 Technical Guidance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \1\ EPA's MOVES3 Technical Guidance: Using MOVES to Prepare 
Emission Inventories for State Implementation Plans and 
Transportation Conformity is located in the EPA's guidance portal at 
www.epa.gov/state-and-local-transportation/policy-and-technical-guidance-state-and-local-transportation.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    If a state revises an existing SIP with MOVES3, it must show that 
the SIP continues to meet applicable requirements with the new level of 
motor vehicle emissions calculated by the new model. EPA's MOVES3 
Policy Guidance provides the following description on how to meet the 
applicable requirements for existing SIPs that are revised with MOVES3, 
including ideas for how to streamline these revisions whenever 
possible: (1) use of latest planning assumptions: the motor vehicle 
emissions inventories for base year, milestone year and attainment/
maintenance year will need to be recalculated with the latest available 
planning assumptions; (2) states will need to consider and evaluate 
whether growth and control strategy assumptions for non-motor vehicle 
sources (i.e., stationary, area, and nonroad mobile sources) are still 
accurate at the time that the MOVES3 SIP revision is developed to 
ensure the revised emissions inventories are consistent with the 
relevant applicable requirement (e.g., reasonable further progress, 
attainment, or maintenance); and (3) if these assumptions have not 
changed, the state can explain this and re-submit the original SIP with 
the revised motor vehicle emissions inventories and budgets to meet the 
remaining applicable requirements as described in the guidance 
document.\2\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \2\ EPA's MOVES3 Policy Guidance (pp. 9-10) located in the EPA's 
guidance portal at www.epa.gov/sites/default/files/2020-11/documents/420b20044_0.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Areas may be able to revise their motor vehicle emissions 
inventories and budgets using MOVES3 without revising the entire SIP or 
completing additional modeling if: (1) the SIP meets applicable 
requirements when the previous motor vehicle emissions inventories are 
replaced with MOVES3 inventories; and (2) the state can document that 
the growth and control strategy assumptions

[[Page 47476]]

for non-motor vehicle sources continue to be valid and any minor 
updates do not change the overall conclusions of the SIP.\3\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \3\ Id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The Area did not meet both required criteria for nonroad model 
source emissions. Consequently, the SIP revision included information 
addressing the recommendations described in the MOVES3 Policy Guidance. 
The SIP revision includes the following: (1) a demonstration that the 
2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS maintenance plan continues to meet applicable 
requirements with the revised motor vehicle emissions inventories, as 
calculated by the MOVES3.0.4 model; (2) a review of the point, nonpoint 
(area), and marine, airport, and railroad (MAR) source missions 
inventories for the interim and maintenance years to determine if 
growth and control strategy assumptions have changed; and (3) an 
assessment to confirm that excess emissions exist and the 
quantification of these excess emissions for use in the safety margin 
applied to the MVEBs.

B. Retaining the 2014 Attainment Year Inventories

    The Area's maintenance demonstration must show that emissions of 
VOC and NOX do not increase in future years beyond the 
actual estimated emissions in the 2014 attainment year in order to 
maintain compliance with the 2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS. The SIP revision 
describes the revisions to the interim year and the outyear 
inventories, which reflect changes in the onroad and nonroad mobile 
sectors. The Area's comparative analysis of the two models showed that 
NOX onroad emissions estimates generated using MOVES3.0.4 
were higher than those generated by MOVES2014b for years 2021, 2023, 
2025, 2030, 2040, and 2045 by 1%, 4%, 9%, 26%, 52%, and 54%, 
respectively. The same analysis showed VOC onroad emissions generated 
using MOVES3.0.4 were lower than those generated by MOVES2014b for 
years 2021, 2023, 2025, 2030, 2040, and 2045 by 17%, 17%, 18%, 14%, 8%, 
and 7%, respectively. The negligible increase in onroad NOX 
emissions when comparing MOVES2014b to MOVES3.04 for the year 2021 
(1%), resulted in the Area only updating 2025 and 2030 onroad emissions 
while retaining the attainment year 2014 onroad emissions developed 
using MOVES2014a.
    The Area also compared the nonroad mobile emissions using 
MOVES3.0.4 and MOVES2014a. This comparative analysis showed that the 
MOVES3.0.4 nonroad model emissions were much lower compared to 
MOVES2014a nonroad model emissions for 2025 and 2030. Tables 1 and 2 in 
this document, show that even with the estimated lower 2014 MOVES3.0.4 
nonroad model emissions, total VOC and NOX emissions from 
all four sectors (point, nonpoint, nonroad, and onroad) remained higher 
in 2014 compared to total emissions in 2025 and 2030. The fact that the 
revised total emissions from all four sectors in 2014 was still higher 
when compared to the revised total emissions in 2025 and 2030, provides 
the reasoning for the Area not having to update the 2014 nonroad model 
emissions using MOVES3.0.4.\4\ This is one of the most important 
criteria for approval of a maintenance plan, as maintenance is 
demonstrated when the emissions in the final year of the maintenance 
plan are less than the emissions in the baseline attainment year. In 
the current SIP-approved inventories, the attainment year is 2014 and 
the maintenance year is 2030.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \4\ Tables 1 and 2 of this document, show a comparative analysis 
of the emissions inventories for the years 2014, 2025, and 2030 in 
the 2017 and revised maintenance plans using both MOVES3.0.4 and 
MOVES2014a. The total inventories from all sources together for 2014 
are higher compared to the total inventories for 2025 and 2030 in 
the revised maintenance plan.
    \5\ MOVES3.0.4 nonroad model emissions for 2014 were derived by 
reducing MOVES2014a nonroad model emissions for VOC and 
NOX in the 2017 plan by 16.3% and 35.1% respectively in 
that year.
    \6\ The comparative analysis showed that while NOX 
emission generated by both models are expected to be essentially the 
same for 2014, VOC emission is expected to be much lower for 
MOVES3.0.4 compared to MOVES2014b in that year. In this case, both 
VOC and NOX emissions generated by MOVES3.0.4 are assumed 
to be the same as MOVES2014a for 2014.

                                 Table 1--2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS VOC Emissions Inventories for the Area in Tons per Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                                               Revised
                 Year                   Point    Nonpoint    MAR *       Nonroad       Nonroad       Onroad        Onroad      2017  Plan    maintenance
                                                                       MOVES2014a    MOVES3.0.4    MOVES2014a    MOVES3.0.4       total      plan total
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014.................................     8.95     139.29       2.37         47.48     \5\ 39.72         61.25     \6\ 61.25        259.34        251.58
2025.................................    10.08     153.70       2.55         44.88         37.55         33.18         27.92        244.39        231.80
[Delta](2014-2025)...................    -1.13     -14.41      -0.18          2.60          2.17         28.07         33.33         14.95         19.78
2030.................................    10.66     160.31       2.64         47.15         37.61         24.06         21.75        244.81        232.97
[Delta](2014-2030)...................    -1.71     -21.01      -0.27          0.33          2.11         37.19         39.50         14.53         18.61
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* MAR sources are marine, airport, and railroad.


                                 Table 2--2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS NOX Emissions Inventories for the Area in Tons per Day
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                                               Revised
                 Year                   Point    Nonpoint    MAR *       Nonroad       Nonroad       Onroad        Onroad      2017  plan    maintenance
                                                                       MOVES2014a    MOVES3.0.4    MOVES2014a    MOVES3.0.4       total      plan total
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014.................................    79.22       9.62      19.21         51.99     \4\ 33.74        136.84    \5\ 136.84        296.88        278.63
2025.................................    80.40       9.85      21.41         29.62         19.23         40.68         46.52        181.96        177.41
[Delta](2014-2025)...................    -1.18      -0.23      -2.19         22.36         14.51         96.16         90.32        114.92        101.22
2030.................................    82.87       9.96      22.36         27.80         16.94         27.39         34.26        170.38        166.39
[Delta](2014-2030)...................    -3.65      -0.34      -3.14         24.19         16.80        109.45        102.58        126.51        112.24
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

C. Inventories for Point Sources

    EPA requires areas to demonstrate how the area will remain in 
compliance with the 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS for the 10-year period following 
the effective date of redesignation. One method that areas use to 
demonstrate that the area will maintain the 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS is to 
identify the level of ozone precursor emissions in the area which is 
sufficient to attain the NAAQS (attainment year 2014 inventory) and to 
show that future emissions of ozone precursors will not exceed the 
attainment levels. The comparison of

[[Page 47477]]

emissions inventories includes ozone precursors from all source 
categories, not only point sources.
    The District, the State of Maryland, and the Commonwealth of 
Virginia, separately reviewed their point source emission inventories, 
growth assumptions, and control assumptions, as well as emissions 
inventory data from more current actual inventories. The Area retained 
the 2025 and 2030 emissions inventories for point and nonpoint sources 
based on analyses of more current emissions inventory data as well as 
the latest growth rates for economic indicators.
    The District's analysis of the point source emissions inventory for 
the 2014 attainment year for VOC and NOX was based on the 
2014 National Emissions Inventory (NEI). The 2014 inventory was used as 
the basis for the projection year inventories of the 2025 interim year 
inventory and the 2030 outyear/maintenance year inventory. Table 3 in 
this document, summarizes the 2014, 2025, and 2030 emission estimates 
for the District's point sources as well as the reported VOC and 
NOX emissions for 2020 and 2021 Title V sources. The data 
show that the 2020 and 2021 emission estimates are below the 2014 
attainment year emission estimates used in the maintenance plan. In 
addition, emission projections for 2025 and 2030 are above the actual 
estimates for 2020 and 2021. Based on these data, updates to the point 
source inventories the District used in the 2017 plan are not necessary 
to ensure continued maintenance of the 2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS.

  Table 3--District of Columbia Point Source Inventory in Tons per Day
------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Data Description                    NOX             VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014 attainment year emissions..........            1.22            0.45
2025 projected interim year emissions...            1.22            0.45
2030 projected outyear emissions........            1.22            0.45
2020 actual reported emissions..........            1.02            0.24
2021 actual reported emissions..........            1.03            0.24
------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The State of Maryland's analysis of the point source emissions 
inventory for the 2014 attainment year for VOC and NOX was 
based on the 2014 NEI and partially based on the 2014 Clean Air Markets 
Division (CAMD) data. The 2014 inventory was used as the basis for the 
projection year inventories of the 2025 interim year inventory and the 
2030 outyear/maintenance year inventory. Table 4 in this document, 
shows that the 2017 and 2020 actual emission estimates are well beneath 
the 2025 and 2030 projected future year emission estimates used in the 
maintenance plan. Therefore, when comparing the actual point source 
emissions to the grown future year point source emissions that 
demonstrate maintenance of the standard, the actual point source 
emissions provide a buffer for other source categories such as onroad 
mobile, nonroad mobile and nonpoint emissions sources. Based on these 
data, updates to the point source inventories for the State of Maryland 
used in the 2017 plan are not necessary to ensure continued maintenance 
of the 2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS.

      Table 4--Maryland Point Source Inventory in Tons per Day \7\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Data description                    NOX             VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014 attainment year emissions..........           47.81            5.27
2025 projected interim year emissions...           53.04            6.48
2030 projected outyear emissions........           55.18            7.02
2017 actual reported emissions..........           49.72            2.52
2020 actual reported emissions..........           48.18            2.71
------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The Commonwealth of Virginia's analysis of the point source 
emissions inventory for the 2014 attainment year for VOC and 
NOX was based on the 2014 NEI and partially based on 2014 
Community Emissions Data Systems (CEDS) data. The Commonwealth of 
Virginia provided data for the electric generating units (EGUs) at the 
only EGU in the Northern Virginia area that operated in 2014, Possum 
Point Power Station. The data provided estimates of the Possum Point 
Power Station's projected emissions in 2025 and 2030. In addition, the 
Commonwealth of Virginia provided data for all non-EGU point sources in 
the Northern Virginia area. For all non-EGU point sources except data 
centers, Virginia used a ``no growth'' scenario in the 2017 plan, 
assuming that future-year point-source emissions would be equivalent to 
the 2014 emissions estimates. Emissions from data centers in Northern 
Virginia were grown based on the estimated employment growth rate 
derived from the Council of Governments (COG) Cooperative Forecasts for 
each county in which each data center is located.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \7\ Maryland's point source emission typically consists of three 
different components--Electric Generating Units (EGUs), Non-Electric 
Generating Units (NEGUs), and Quasi-Point Sources. The data in Table 
4 in this document, does not reflect the total point source emission 
inventory in Tables 1 and 2 in this document, because it includes 
total VOC and NOX emissions from EGUs and Non-EGUs only 
(excludes quasi-point sources).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The 2014, 2025, and 2030 emission estimates for point sources, as 
well as the reported VOC and NOX emissions for 2019, 2020, 
and 2021 for sources required to provide emission statements are 
summarized in Table 5 in this document. The data show that the 2021 
emission estimates are well beneath the attainment year 2014 emission 
estimates used in the 2017 plan. The data also show that emission 
projections for 2025 and 2030 are above the actual estimates for 2021. 
In addition, the data show that there is generally a downward trend in 
actual emissions estimates from 2014, 2019, 2020, and 2021. Based on 
these data, updates to the point source inventories for Northern 
Virginia in the 2017 plan are not necessary to ensure continued 
maintenance of the 2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS.

[[Page 47478]]



        Table 5--Virginia Point Source Inventory in Tons per Day
------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Data description                    NOX             VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014 attainment year emissions..........           15.83            1.99
2025 projected interim year emissions...           11.78            1.90
2030 projected outyear emissions........           12.11            1.94
2019 actual reported emissions..........           13.00            1.60
2020 actual reported emissions..........           11.21            1.37
2021 actual reported emissions..........            7.93            1.29
------------------------------------------------------------------------

D. Nonpoint & MAR Source Emission Growth and Control Assumptions

    The Area compared growth factors used to project nonpoint and MAR 
emissions from 2014 to 2025 and 2030 in the 2017 plan with current 
estimates from its' Cooperative Forecasts Round 9.2 and the Constrained 
Element of the Long-Range Transportation Plan (CE LRTP).\8\ The 
comparative analysis of the data in Table 6 in this document, shows 
relatively minor changes to the nonpoint and MAR emissions growth 
factors. The data shows a slight increase in population growth factors 
for 2025 and 2030 and the household growth factor for 2030 
(approximately 1%).\9\ Employment, households (for 2025), and vehicle 
miles traveled (VMT) or lane-miles, either remain at the same level or 
decrease (approximately 1% to 2%). Based on the data, EPA agrees that 
the comparative analysis demonstrates that the emission estimates and 
projections from nonpoint and MAR sources in the 2017 plan continue to 
be valid and continue to demonstrate that the area's air quality will 
remain compliant with the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \8\ The CE LRTP, which was updated in both 2020 and 2022, is 
also known as Visualize 2045, and is the source for vehicle miles 
traveled (VMT) estimates and lane-miles estimates.
    \9\ Although emission sources from population growth factors 
contribute about 60% and 26% of total VOC and NOX 
emissions, respectively, in the 2017 plan, a 1% increase in 
population growth factors, together with some amount of decrease in 
other growth factors, should ensure that the overall change in 
nonpoint and MAR source emissions in 2025 and 2030 would be 
relatively insignificant.

                              Table 6--Comparison of Growth Factors in Tons per Day
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
         Growth factor description              2017 Plan    Current factor         Current factor source
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Employment (2025/2014).....................            1.14            1.14  COG Cooperative Forecasts 9.2
                                                                              (Final).
Employment (2030/2014).....................            1.21            1.21  COG Cooperative Forecasts 9.2
                                                                              (Final).
Population (2025/2014).....................            1.12            1.13  COG Cooperative Forecasts 9.2
                                                                              (Final).
Population (2030/2014).....................            1.17            1.18  COG Cooperative Forecasts 9.2
                                                                              (Final).
Household (2025/2014)......................            1.14            1.13  COG Cooperative Forecasts 9.2
                                                                              (Final).
Household (2030/2014)......................            1.19            1.20  COG Cooperative Forecasts 9.2
                                                                              (Final).
VMT (2025/2014)............................            1.12            1.12  2020 & 2022 Amendments to Visualize
                                                                              2045 (CLRP).
VMT (2030/2014)............................            1.17            1.16  2020 & 2022 Amendments to Visualize
                                                                              2045 (CLRP).
Lane-Miles (2025/2014).....................            1.06            1.04  2020 & 2022 Amendments to Visualize
                                                                              2045 (CLRP).
Lane-Miles (2030/2014).....................            1.06            1.06  2020 & 2022 Amendments to Visualize
                                                                              2045 (CLRP).
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

E. Onroad and Nonroad Mobile Model Sources

    The Area updated the projection inventories for NOX and 
VOC for the interim year 2025 and the outyear 2030. The current SIP-
approved NOX and VOC inventories for onroad and nonroad 
(except for MAR) mobile sources for 2014, 2025 and 2030 were developed 
using the MOVES2014a model in the 2017 plan. EPA's MOVES3.0.4 model 
incorporates the latest emissions data and allows users to model the 
benefits from new regulations promulgated since MOVES2014a. In 
particular, the MOVES3.0.4 model contains nonroad equipment population 
growth rates and diesel Tier 4 emission rates that have been updated 
since MOVES2014a. As a result, MOVES3.0.4 generates different nonroad 
and onroad mobile emissions estimates than MOVES2014a. For this reason, 
the Area is updating its 2025 and 2030 onroad and nonroad (except for 
MAR) mobile emissions in this revised plan using the MOVES3.0.4 model. 
The Area did not update the inventories for the attainment year 2014 as 
discussed in detail in section II.B. in this document.
    Based on the onroad mobile emissions trend shown in this SIP 
revision and the most recent air quality conformity analysis for the 
Area, onroad mobile source emissions are decreasing due to the 
implementation of the National Low Emission Vehicle Program (NLEV), the 
Heavy-Duty Engine and Vehicle Standards (HDDV), Tier 3, and Safer 
Affordable Fuel Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles and Corporate Average Fuel 
Economy (CAFE) rules, Stage II, and Maryland's LEV/ZEV (Low Emission 
Vehicle/Zero Emission Vehicle) programs. These emission reductions 
occur even as VMT estimates continue to grow. This trend and onroad 
mobile source emission reductions ensures continued maintenance of the 
2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS.

F. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets and Safety Margins

    The Area's maintenance plan includes NOX and VOC MVEBs 
for 2025 and 2030, an interim year and an outyear of the maintenance 
period, respectively. The budgets were developed as part of an 
interagency consultation process which includes Federal, state, and 
local agencies. The budgets were clearly identified and precisely 
quantified. This process was consistent with the aforementioned 
requirements of 40 CFR part 93. These budgets, when considered together 
with all other emissions sources, are consistent with maintenance of 
the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
    This rulemaking revises the budgets for mobile sources in the 
Washington Area. The maintenance plan is designed to provide for future 
growth while still maintaining the 2008 ozone NAAQS. Growth in 
industries, population, and traffic is offset by reductions from 
cleaner cars and other emission reduction programs. Through the

[[Page 47479]]

maintenance plan, the state and local agencies can manage and maintain 
clean air quality while providing for growth.
    The Area updated the 2025 and 2030 MVEBs, for NOX and 
VOC, using MOVES3.0.4 and updated planning assumptions. These MVEBs 
will ensure that transportation emissions conform with each state's 
SIP. Table 7 in this document, presents the revised MVEBs for 2025 and 
2030 along with the retained 2014 MVEBs from the 2017 plan (using 
MOVES2014a). The Area added safety margins for the projected onroad 
mobile VOC and NOX emissions when developing the MVEBs for 
2025 and 2030. A ``safety margin,'' as defined in the transportation 
conformity rule (40 CFR part 93, subpart A), is the amount by which the 
total projected emissions from all sources of a given pollutant are 
less than the total emissions that would satisfy the applicable 
requirement for reasonable further progress, attainment, or 
maintenance. The attainment level of emissions is the level of 
emissions during one of the years (2014) in which the Area met the 
NAAQS.
    The 2017 plan demonstrated that the Area attained the 2008 8-Hour 
Ozone NAAQS and could therefore emit up to the attainment year 2014 
emission level. Table 7 in this document, gives detailed information on 
the safety margin for the Area. Table 7 in this document, shows the 
differences in total emissions for VOC and NOX from all 
sources between the attainment year 2014 and the intermediate year 2025 
and the attainment year 2014 and the final maintenance year 2030. The 
differences between the projected emissions in the years 2025 and 2030 
and the actual emissions in the year 2014 are referred to as the 
``safety margin'' or the amount of excess emission reductions.\10\ All 
or a portion of these safety margins can be allotted to onroad mobile 
source inventories to develop MVEBs. The Area allotted only portions of 
the total available safety margins for VOC and NOX when 
developing the revised MVEBs for 2025 and 2030.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \10\ The differences in emissions provide estimates of the total 
available safety margins in tons per day (tpd) for VOC for 2025 
(27.7 tpd) and 2030 (44.9 tpd) and for NOX for 2025 
(101.1 tpd) and 2030 (130.4 tpd).

                    Table 7--Revised Onroad Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets Using MOVES3.0.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                  VOC onroad emissions     NOX onroad emissions
                             Year                                        (tpd)                    (tpd)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014 Attainment Year..........................................                    61.25                   136.84
2025 Predicted Emissions without Safety Margin................                    27.92                    46.52
2025 Safety Margin............................................                     5.58                     9.30
2025 Interim Budget with Safety Margin........................                    33.50                    55.82
2030 Predicted Emissions without Safety Margin................                    21.75                    34.26
2030 Safety Margin............................................                     4.35                     6.85
2030 Final Budget with Safety Margin..........................                    26.10                    41.11
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The Area has requested a partial allocation of the safety margin to 
the onroad mobile emissions inventory projections for VOC and 
NOX in 2025 and 2030. The allocation will add 5.58 tpd of 
VOC and 9.30 tpd of NOX from the safety margins to the 2025 
emission inventories, and 4.35 tpd of VOC and 6.85 tpd of 
NOX from the safety margins to the 2030 emission 
inventories. Tables 8 and 9 in this document, show that the 2025 and 
the 2030 projected emissions, even with this allocation, will be below 
the 2014 attainment year emissions for both VOC and NOX, 
respectively.

   Table 8--The Area Revised Maintenance Plan VOC Emissions, 2014 to 2030, Including MVEBs With Safety Margins
                                                      [tpd]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      2014 W/o    2014 With     2025 W/o    2025 With     2030 W/o    2030 With
          Source category              safety       safety       safety       safety       safety       safety
                                      margins      margins      margins      margins      margins      margins
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Point.............................         7.71         7.71         8.83         8.83         9.41         9.41
Nonpoint..........................       139.29       139.29       153.70       153.70       160.31       160.31
MAR...............................         2.37         2.37         2.55         2.55         2.64         2.64
Nonroad...........................        47.48        47.48        37.55        37.55        37.61        37.61
On-road MVEBs.....................        61.25        61.25        27.92        33.50        21.75        26.10
Quasi-Point.......................         1.24         1.24         1.24         1.24         1.24         1.24
                                   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.........................       259.34       259.34       231.80       237.37       232.97       237.31
    Change from 2014..............          n/a          n/a        27.54        21.97        26.37        22.03
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


   Table 9--The Area Revised Maintenance Plan NOX Emissions, 2014 to 2030, Including MVEBs With Safety Margins
                                                      [tpd]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                      2014 W/o    2014 With     2025 W/o    2025 With     2030 W/o    2030 With
          Source category              safety       safety       safety       safety       safety       safety
                                      margins      margins      margins      margins      margins      margins
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Point.............................        64.85        64.85        66.03        66.03        68.50        68.50
Nonpoint..........................         9.62         9.62         9.85         9.85         9.96         9.96
MAR...............................        19.21        19.21        21.41        21.41        22.36        22.36

[[Page 47480]]

 
Nonroad...........................        51.99        51.99        19.23        19.23        16.94        16.94
On-road MVEBs.....................       136.84       136.84        46.52        55.82        34.26        41.11
Quasi-Point.......................        14.37        14.37        14.37        14.37        14.37        14.37
                                   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.........................       296.88       296.88       177.41       186.71       166.40       173.24
    Change from 2014..............          n/a          n/a       119.47       110.17       130.48       123.64
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The Area has demonstrated that it will continue to maintain the 
2008 8-Hour Ozone NAAQS, even after updating the onroad emissions 
estimates using the MOVES3.0.4 model. For this reason, EPA finds that 
the updated MVEBs and the allocation of the safety margins to the 2025 
and 2030 budgets for the Area, meet the requirements of the 
transportation conformity regulations at 40 CFR part 93 and are 
approvable.

III. Proposed Action

    EPA is proposing to approve the Washington Area's SIP revision 
updating the MVEBs and the onroad and nonroad (except for marine, 
airport, and railroad) mobile emissions for VOC and NOX for 
the years 2025 and 2030. Additionally, EPA is proposing to approve the 
allocation of a portion of the safety margins for VOC and 
NOX in the ozone maintenance plan to the 2025 and 2030 
budgets. EPA is soliciting public comments on the issues discussed in 
this document. These comments will be considered before taking final 
action.

IV. General Information Pertaining to SIP Submittals From the 
Commonwealth of Virginia

    In 1995, Virginia adopted legislation that provides, subject to 
certain conditions, for an environmental assessment (audit) 
``privilege'' for voluntary compliance evaluations performed by a 
regulated entity. The legislation further addresses the relative burden 
of proof for parties either asserting the privilege or seeking 
disclosure of documents for which the privilege is claimed. Virginia's 
legislation also provides, subject to certain conditions, for a penalty 
waiver for violations of environmental laws when a regulated entity 
discovers such violations pursuant to a voluntary compliance evaluation 
and voluntarily discloses such violations to the Commonwealth and takes 
prompt and appropriate measures to remedy the violations. Virginia's 
Voluntary Environmental Assessment Privilege Law, Va. Code Sec. 
10.1198, provides a privilege that protects from disclosure documents 
and information about the content of those documents that are the 
product of a voluntary environmental assessment. The Privilege Law does 
not extend to documents or information that: (1) are generated or 
developed before the commencement of a voluntary environmental 
assessment; (2) are prepared independently of the assessment process; 
(3) demonstrate a clear, imminent, and substantial danger to the public 
health or environment; or (4) are required by law.
    On January 12, 1998, the Commonwealth of Virginia Office of the 
Attorney General provided a legal opinion that states that the 
Privilege Law, Va. Code Sec. 10.1-1198, precludes granting a privilege 
to documents and information ``required by law,'' including documents 
and information ``required by Federal law to maintain program 
delegation, authorization or approval,'' since Virginia must ``enforce 
Federally authorized environmental programs in a manner that is no less 
stringent than their Federal counterparts. . . .'' The opinion 
concludes that ``[r]egarding Sec.  10.1-1198, therefore, documents or 
other information needed for civil or criminal enforcement under one of 
these programs could not be privileged because such documents and 
information are essential to pursuing enforcement in a manner required 
by Federal law to maintain program delegation, authorization or 
approval.''
    Virginia's Immunity Law, Va. Code Sec. 10.1-1199, provides that 
``[t]o the extent consistent with requirements imposed by Federal 
law,'' any person making a voluntary disclosure of information to a 
state agency regarding a violation of an environmental statute, 
regulation, permit, or administrative order is granted immunity from 
administrative or civil penalty. The Attorney General's January 12, 
1998 opinion states that the quoted language renders this statute 
inapplicable to enforcement of any Federally authorized programs, since 
``no immunity could be afforded from administrative, civil, or criminal 
penalties because granting such immunity would not be consistent with 
Federal law, which is one of the criteria for immunity.''
    Therefore, the EPA has determined that Virginia's Privilege and 
Immunity statutes will not preclude the Commonwealth from enforcing its 
program consistent with the Federal requirements. In any event, because 
the EPA has also determined that a state audit privilege and immunity 
law can affect only state enforcement and cannot have any impact on 
Federal enforcement authorities, the EPA may at any time invoke its 
authority under the CAA, including, for example, sections 113, 167, 
205, 211 or 213, to enforce the requirements or prohibitions of the 
state plan, independently of any state enforcement effort. In addition, 
citizen enforcement under section 304 of the CAA is likewise unaffected 
by this, or any, state audit privilege or immunity law.

V. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

    Under the CAA, the Administrator is required to approve a SIP 
submission that complies with the provisions of the CAA and applicable 
Federal regulations. 42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 52.02(a). Thus, in 
reviewing SIP submissions, the EPA's role is to approve state choices, 
provided that they meet the criteria of the CAA. Accordingly, this 
action merely approves state law as meeting Federal requirements and 
does not impose additional requirements beyond those imposed by state 
law. For that reason, this proposed action:
     Is not a significant regulatory action subject to review 
by the Office of Management and Budget under Executive Orders 12866 (58 
FR 51735, October 4, 1993) and 13563 (76 FR 3821, January 21, 2011);

[[Page 47481]]

     Does not impose an information collection burden under the 
provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.);
     Is certified as not having a significant economic impact 
on a substantial number of small entities under the Regulatory 
Flexibility Act (5 U.S.C. 601 et seq.);
     Does not contain any unfunded mandate or significantly or 
uniquely affect small governments, as described in the Unfunded 
Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (Pub. L. 104-4);
     Does not have federalism implications as specified in 
Executive Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, August 10, 1999);
     Is not an economically significant regulatory action based 
on health or safety risks subject to Executive Order 13045 (62 FR 
19885, April 23, 1997);
     Is not a significant regulatory action subject to 
Executive Order 13211 (66 FR 28355, May 22, 2001); and
     Is not subject to requirements of Section 12(d) of the 
National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act of 1995 (15 U.S.C. 272 
note) because application of those requirements would be inconsistent 
with the Clean Air Act;
    This action does not have tribal implications as specified by 
Executive Order 13175 (65 FR 67249, November 9, 2000), because this 
action is not approved to apply in Indian country located in the 
Commonwealth of Virginia, State of Maryland, or District of Columbia, 
and EPA notes that it will not impose substantial direct costs on 
tribal governments or preempt tribal law.
    Executive Order 12898 (Federal Actions to Address Environmental 
Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations, 59 FR 7629, 
February 16, 1994) directs Federal agencies to identify and address 
``disproportionately high and adverse human health or environmental 
effects'' of their actions on minority populations and low-income 
populations to the greatest extent practicable and permitted by law. 
The EPA defines environmental justice (EJ) as ``the fair treatment and 
meaningful involvement of all people regardless of race, color, 
national origin, or income with respect to the development, 
implementation, and enforcement of environmental laws, regulations, and 
policies.'' The EPA further defines the term fair treatment to mean 
that ``no group of people should bear a disproportionate burden of 
environmental harms and risks, including those resulting from the 
negative environmental consequences of industrial, governmental, and 
commercial operations or programs and policies.''
    The District of Columbia, State of Maryland, and Commonwealth of 
Virginia did not evaluate environmental justice considerations as part 
of the SIP submittal; the CAA and applicable implementing regulations 
neither prohibit nor require such an evaluation. The EPA did not 
perform an EJ analysis and did not consider EJ in this action. 
Consideration of EJ is not required as part of this action, and there 
is no information in the record inconsistent with the stated goal of 
E.O. 12898 of achieving environmental justice for people of color, low-
income populations, and Indigenous peoples.

List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52

    Environmental protection, Air pollution control, Incorporation by 
reference, Intergovernmental relations, Nitrogen dioxide, Ozone, 
Reporting and recordkeeping requirements, Volatile organic compounds.

Adam Ortiz,
Regional Administrator, Region III.
[FR Doc. 2024-11839 Filed 5-31-24; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560-50-P