[Federal Register Volume 87, Number 224 (Tuesday, November 22, 2022)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 71269-71271]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2022-25415]


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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Census Bureau

15 CFR Part 90

[Docket Number: 221116-0243]
RIN 0607-AA60


Resumption of the Population Estimates Challenge Program and 
Proposed Changes to the Program

AGENCY: Census Bureau, Department of Commerce.

ACTION: Notice of proposed rulemaking and request for comments.

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SUMMARY: The Bureau of the Census (Census Bureau) is proposing to amend 
the regulations for the Population Estimates Challenge Program which 
provides eligible general-purpose governmental entities (units) with 
the opportunity to file requests for the review of their population 
estimates for 2021 and subsequent years in forthcoming estimates 
series, beginning with the Vintage 2022 series that is scheduled to be 
published in 2023. Under this program, a governmental unit may file a 
challenge to its official population estimate by submitting additional 
data to the Census Bureau for evaluation, or by identifying a technical 
error in processing input data or producing the estimates. 
Specifically, the Census Bureau is proposing to amend its regulations 
to: update references to the input data used to produce the official 
population estimates and revise the evidence required to support a 
challenge.

DATES: Written comments must be submitted on or before December 22, 
2022.

ADDRESSES: Interested persons are invited to submit written comments by 
email to census.gov">POP.challenge@census.gov. You also may submit comments, 
identified by RIN number 0607-AA60, to the Federal e-Rulemaking Portal: 
https://www.regulations.gov. All comments received are a part of the 
public record. Comments will be posted to https://www.regulations.gov 
for public viewing on a rolling basis. Comments generally will be 
posted without change. All Personal Identifying Information (for 
example, name, address) voluntarily submitted by the commenter may be 
publicly accessible. Do not submit Confidential Business Information or 
otherwise sensitive or protected information. The Census Bureau will 
accept anonymous comments (enter N/A in the required fields, if you 
wish to remain anonymous). You may submit attachments to electronic 
comments in Microsoft Word, Excel, or Adobe PDF file formats only.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Requests for additional information 
should be directed to Amel Toukabri, Chief, Local Government Estimates 
and Migration Processing Branch, Population Division, 301-763-2461 or 
census.gov">POP.challenge@census.gov.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: 

Background

    The Census Bureau typically releases annual population estimates, 
in accordance with Title 13 of the United States Code (U.S.C.). These 
estimates are typically based to some extent upon the most recent 
Decennial Census of Population and Housing and compiled from the most 
current administrative and survey data available for that purpose. 
Although not required by any statute, the Census Bureau also typically 
offers an opportunity for local units of general-purpose government 
(hereinafter collectively ``governmental unit'') to challenge these 
official estimates through its Population

[[Page 71270]]

Estimates Challenge Program. Under this program, a governmental unit 
may challenge its population estimate by submitting additional data to 
the Census Bureau for evaluation, or by identifying a technical error 
in processing input data or producing the estimates. If the additional 
data are accepted during the review period by the Census Bureau, 
resulting in an updated population estimate, the Census Bureau will 
provide a written notification to the governmental unit and publish the 
revised estimate at www.census.gov. If the additional data are not 
accepted for a revised estimate, the Census Bureau will notify the 
governmental unit. In the challenge process, the Census Bureau will 
only accept a challenge when the evidence provided indicates the use of 
incorrect data, processes, or calculations in the estimates.
    In this proposed rule, the Census Bureau is proposing to amend its 
regulations to: (1) update references to the input data used to produce 
the official population estimates, and (2) revise the evidence required 
to support a challenge.
    The Census Bureau is also soliciting comments from the public about 
any ways in which the program might be improved. In particular, the 
Census Bureau welcomes comments about (1) the methodology used in 
preparing the annual Population Estimates, (2) the sources of data that 
the agency considers (or does not consider) in preparing the annual 
Population Estimates, and (3) what sorts of factual or methodological 
arguments the agency considers (or does not consider) in evaluating a 
potential challenge.
    Currently, the Census Bureau begins the process of preparing 
population estimates by updating population information from the most 
recent decennial census and other sources with information found in the 
annual administrative records of Federal and State Agencies. The 
Federal Agencies provide tax records, Medicare records, and some vital 
records and group quarters information. The State Agencies from the 
Federal-State Cooperative for Population Estimates (FSCPE), designated 
by their respective governors to work in cooperation with the Census 
Bureau's Population Estimates Program to produce population estimates, 
also supply vital statistics and information about group quarters like 
college dorms or prisons.\1\ The Census Bureau combines census base 
data, administrative records, and selected survey data to produce 
current population estimates that usually begin with the last decennial 
census. Additionally, the Census Bureau's general-purpose governmental 
units' population estimates are provided to the FSCPE agencies in 
preliminary form for review and comment to resolve data processing 
issues identified during that period. For the purposes of this program, 
the District of Columbia is treated as a statistical equivalent of a 
county and, therefore, eligible to participate.
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    \1\ https://www.census.gov/programs-surveys/popest/about/fscpe.html.
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    A major priority for the Census Bureau is balancing the need to use 
the 2020 Census counts at the lowest level of estimates geography as 
the starting point in estimates production with the statutory 
obligation to protect the respondents' confidentiality at every stage 
of the data lifecycle. Since the 1990 Census, the Bureau has added 
``noise''--or variations from the actual count--to the collected data 
to ensure privacy and confidentiality. For 2020 Census data, the Census 
Bureau applied noise using a newer disclosure avoidance framework based 
on ``differential privacy''.\2\ The Census Bureau uses a housing unit 
method to distribute a county population to places within its legal 
boundaries. The components in this method include housing units 
estimates, average household population per housing unit, and an 
estimate of the population in group quarters. The estimation formula 
was simplified to increase the accuracy of the estimates following the 
application of differential privacy as per the Census Bureau's new 
disclosure avoidance framework: to minimize the impact of differential 
privacy on the population estimates, the Census Bureau reduced the 
number of components requiring privacy protection used to generate 
population estimates. Consequently, the occupancy rate and Persons Per 
Household (PPH) previously used in this method were replaced with the 
average household population per housing unit. The household population 
and the group quarters population used in the calculation of the 
estimate are the only two components subject to differential privacy 
protection compared to three components--occupancy rate, PPH, and group 
quarters population--that would have otherwise required privacy 
protection. Therefore, the PPH and occupancy rate components are no 
longer inputs used to produce those population estimates. The 
distributive housing unit equation used to calculate the population 
estimates for governmental units is simplified to accommodate the 
application of the disclosure avoidance technique prior to releasing 
the estimates. As a result, the Census Bureau is proposing to amend 15 
CFR part 90 to revise: (1) references to the input data used to produce 
the official population estimates, (2) where to file a challenge and 
(3) the evidence required to support a challenge. These changes are 
captured in the proposed updates to Sec. Sec.  90.2, 90.7, and 90.8.
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    \2\ For more information about the differential privacy 
technique, visit Understanding Differential Privacy (census.gov).
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    The Census Bureau proposes no technical changes to its regulations 
except in the following sections:
    Sections 90.2 and 90.7--to ensure that the regulatory text more 
accurately describes how the Population Estimates Challenge Program has 
always functioned and is expected to function in the future. This 
proposed clarification does not reflect any operational changes.
    Section 90.8--to update the challengeable components of change.

Regulatory Flexibility Act

    The Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA), as amended by the Small 
Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act of 1996 (SBREFA), 5 U.S.C. 
601 et seq., generally requires an agency to prepare a regulatory 
flexibility analysis of any rule subject to the notice and comment 
rulemaking requirements under the Administrative Procedure Act (5 
U.S.C. 553) or any other statute, unless the agency certifies that the 
rule will not have a significant economic impact on a substantial 
number of small entities. Under section 605(b) of the RFA, however, if 
the head of an agency certifies that a rule will not have a significant 
impact on a substantial number of small entities, the statute does not 
require the agency to prepare a regulatory flexibility analysis. 
Pursuant to section 605(b), the Chief Counsel for Regulation, 
Department of Commerce, submitted a memorandum to the Chief Counsel for 
Advocacy, Small Business Administration, certifying that this proposed 
rule will not have a significant impact on a substantial number of 
small entities.

Number of Small Entities

    This proposed rule, if implemented, would impact only governmental 
units, some of which may be considered a small entity under the RFA. 
The RFA defines ``small entity'' as a small business, small 
organization, or small governmental jurisdiction. Specifically, the RFA 
defines ``small governmental jurisdiction'' as the government of a 
city, county, town, school district, or special district with a 
population of less

[[Page 71271]]

than 50,000. Using this criterion, the Census Bureau estimates that 
around 37,000 small governmental jurisdictions would be impacted by 
this rulemaking.

Economic Impact

    The Census Bureau does not anticipate any economic impact as a 
result of this proposed rule. This rulemaking intends to resume the 
implementation of the Population Estimates Challenge Program in 2023 to 
provide eligible entities the opportunity to file a challenge to 
population estimates for 2021 and subsequent years in forthcoming 
estimates series, beginning with the Vintage 2022 series that is 
scheduled to be published in 2023. There are no direct costs imposed on 
governmental entities (units) that wish to initiate a challenge under 
the Population Estimates Challenge Program.

Executive Orders

    This rulemaking has been determined to be not significant for 
purposes of Executive Order 12866. This proposed rule does not contain 
policies with federalism implications as that term is defined in 
Executive Order 13132.

Paperwork Reduction Act

    This notice of proposed rulemaking does not contain a collection of 
information subject to the requirements of the Paperwork Reduction Act 
(PRA), 44 U.S.C., Chapter 35. Notwithstanding any other provision of 
the law, no person is required to respond to, nor shall any person be 
subject to a penalty for failure to comply with, a collection of 
information subject to the requirements of the PRA, unless that 
collection of information displays a currently valid Office of 
Management and Budget (OMB) Control Number.
    Robert L. Santos, Director, Census Bureau, approved the publication 
of this notification in the Federal Register.

List of Subjects in 15 CFR Part 90

    Administrative practice and procedure, Census data, Population 
census, Statistics.

    For the reasons set forth in the preamble, Census Bureau proposes 
to amend 15 CFR part 90 as follows:

PART 90--PROCEDURE FOR CHALLENGING POPULATION ESTIMATES

0
1. The authority citation for part 90 continues to read as follows:

    Authority: 13 U.S.C. 4 and 181.

0
2. Revise Sec.  90.2 to read as follows:


Sec.  90.2  Policy of the Census Bureau.

    It is the policy of the Census Bureau to provide the most accurate 
population estimates possible given the constraints of resources and 
available statistical techniques. It is also the policy of the Census 
Bureau, to the extent feasible, to provide governmental units the 
opportunity to seek a review of and provide additional data for these 
estimates and to present evidence relating to the accuracy of the 
estimates.
0
3. Revise Sec.  90.7 to read as follows:


Sec.  90.7  Where to file a challenge.

    A request for a population estimate challenge must be prepared in 
writing by the governmental unit and filed with the Chief, Population 
Division, Census Bureau by sending the request via email to 
census.gov">POP.challenge@census.gov. The governmental unit must designate a 
contact person who can be reached by telephone or email during normal 
business hours should questions arise with regard to the submitted 
materials.
0
4. Amend Sec.  90.8 by revising paragraphs (a), (c), and (d) to read as 
follows:


Sec.  90.8  Evidence required.

    (a) The governmental unit shall provide whatever evidence it has 
relevant to the request at the time of filing. The Census Bureau may 
request further evidence when necessary. The evidence submitted must be 
consistent with the criteria, standards, and regular processes the 
Census Bureau employs to generate the population estimate. The Census 
Bureau challenge process cannot accept estimates developed from methods 
different from those used by the Census Bureau. The Census Bureau will 
only accept a challenge when the evidence provided indicates the use of 
incorrect data, processes, or calculations in the estimates.
* * * * *
    (c) For minor civil divisions and incorporated places, the Census 
Bureau uses a housing unit method to distribute a county population to 
places within its legal boundaries. The components in this method 
include housing units estimates, average household population per 
housing unit, and an estimate of the population in group quarters. The 
estimation formula was simplified to increase the accuracy of the 
estimates following the application of differential privacy as per the 
Census Bureau's new disclosure avoidance framework. As a result, the 
persons per household (PPH) and occupancy rate components were replaced 
with the average household population per housing unit. Consequently, 
the PPH and occupancy rate are no longer inputs used to produce those 
population estimates and are not eligible to be challenged. The Census 
Bureau will consider a challenge based on data related to changes in an 
area's housing stock, such as data on demolitions, condemned units, 
uninhabitable units, building permits, or mobile home placements or 
other housing inventory-based data deemed comparable by the Census 
Bureau. The Census Bureau will also consider a challenge based on 
additional information about the group quarters population in a 
locality.
    (d) The Census Bureau will also provide a guide on its website as a 
reference for governmental units to use in developing their data as 
evidence to support a challenge to the population estimate. In 
addition, a governmental unit may address any additional questions by 
contacting the Census Bureau at 301-763-2461 or by sending emails to 
census.gov">POP.challenge@census.gov.

    Dated: November 17, 2022.
Shannon Wink,
Program Analyst, Policy Coordination Office, U.S. Census Bureau.
[FR Doc. 2022-25415 Filed 11-21-22; 8:45 am]
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