[Federal Register Volume 86, Number 204 (Tuesday, October 26, 2021)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 59042-59062]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2021-23188]
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Proposed Rules
Federal Register
________________________________________________________________________
This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER contains notices to the public of
the proposed issuance of rules and regulations. The purpose of these
notices is to give interested persons an opportunity to participate in
the rule making prior to the adoption of the final rules.
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Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 204 / Tuesday, October 26, 2021 /
Proposed Rules
[[Page 59042]]
DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
10 CFR Part 460
[EERE-2009-BT-BC-0021]
RIN 1904-AC11
Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for
Manufactured Housing: Availability of Provisional Analysis
AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of
Energy.
ACTION: Supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking; reopening of public
comment period and notification of data availability (NODA).
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SUMMARY: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is reopening the public
comment period for the supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking
(``SNOPR'') regarding proposals to amend energy conservation standards
for manufactured housing. DOE published the SNOPR in the Federal
Register on August 26, 2021. DOE is also publishing a notice of data
availability (NODA) for the manufactured housing energy conservation
standards rulemaking announcing the availability of updated analyses
and results, and is giving interested parties an opportunity to comment
on these analyses and submit additional data.
DATES: The comment period for the SNOPR which published on August 26,
2021 (86 FR 47744), is reopened. DOE will accept comments, data, and
information regarding the SNOPR and NODA received no later than
November 26, 2021. See section IX, ``Public Participation,'' for
details.
ADDRESSES: Any comments submitted must identify the NODA for Energy
Conservation Standards for Manufactured Housing and provide docket
number EERE-2009-BT-STD-0021 and/or regulatory information number (RIN)
number 1904-AC11. Submit electronic comments in WordPerfect, Microsoft
Word, PDF, or ASCII file format, and avoid the use of special
characters or any form of encryption.
Although DOE has routinely accepted public comment submissions
through a variety of mechanisms, including postal mail and hand
delivery/courier, the Department has found it necessary to make
temporary modifications to the comment submission process in light of
the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. DOE is currently suspending receipt of
public comments via postal mail and hand delivery/courier. If a
commenter finds that this change poses an undue hardship, please
contact Appliance Standards Program staff at (202) 586-1445 to discuss
the need for alternative arrangements. Once the Covid-19 pandemic
health emergency is resolved, DOE anticipates resuming all of its
regular options for public comment submission, including postal mail
and hand delivery/courier.
No telefacsimilies (faxes) will be accepted. For detailed
instructions on submitting comments and additional information on the
rulemaking process, see section IX.A of this document.
Docket: The docket for this activity, which includes Federal
Register notices, comments, and other supporting documents/materials,
is available for review at www.regulations.gov. All documents in the
docket are listed in the www.regulations.gov index. However, not all
documents listed in the index may be publicly available, such as
information that is exempt from public disclosure.
The docket web page can be found at www.regulations.gov/docket?D=EERE-2009-BT-BC-0021. The docket web page contains
instructions on how to access all documents, including public comments,
in the docket. See section IX.A for information on how to submit
comments through www.regulations.gov.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Mr. John Cymbalsky, U.S. Department of
Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Building
Technologies Program (EE-2J), 1000 Independence Avenue SW, Washington,
DC 20585; 202-287-1692; [email protected].
Mr. Matthew Ring, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of the General
Counsel (GC-33), 1000 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20585;
202-586-2555; [email protected].
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Table of Contents
I. Background
II. Summary of the Analyses Performed by the Department of Energy
III. Summary of the Updated Inputs Since the August 2021 MH SNOPR
A. 2021 CFPB Manufactured Housing Finance Report
B. 2020 Manufactured Housing Survey
C. AEO 2021
D. 2020 Shipments
IV. Summary of Updated SNOPR Analysis Results
V. Sensitivity Analysis Results--Alternate Size-Based Tier Threshold
For the Tiered Standard
VI. Sensitivity Analysis Results--Alternate R-21 Exterior Wall
Insulation for Climate Zone 2 and 3 for Tier 2 and Untiered
Standards
A. Sensitivity Analysis Results--Alternate R-21 Exterior Wall
Insulation for Climate Zone 2 and 3 Combined With Alternate Size-
Based Tier Threshold for Tiered Standard
VII. Comparison of the August 2021 MH SNOPR and NODA Results
VIII. Reopening of Comment Period
IX. Public Participation
A. Submission of Comments
X. Approval of the Office of the Secretary
I. Background
DOE published a supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking
(``SNOPR'') proposing amended energy conservation standards for
manufactured housing on August 26, 2021 (``August 2021 MH SNOPR''). 86
FR 47744. In the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE's primary proposal was the
``tiered'' approach, based on the 2021 IECC, wherein a subset of the
energy conservation standards would be less stringent for certain
manufactured homes in light of the cost-effectiveness considerations
required by statute. Under the tiered proposal, two sets of standards
would be established in proposed 10 CFR part 460, subpart B (i.e., Tier
1 and Tier 2). Tier 1 would apply to manufactured homes with a
manufacturer's retail list price of $55,000 or less, and also
incorporate building thermal envelope measures based on certain thermal
envelope components subject to the 2021 IECC, but would limit the
incremental purchase price increase to an average of approximately
$750. Tier 2 would apply to manufactured homes with a manufacturer's
retail list price
[[Page 59043]]
above $55,000, and incorporate building thermal envelope measures based
on certain thermal envelope components and specifications of the 2021
IECC (i.e., the Tier 2 requirements would be the same as those under
the proposed single, ``untiered'' set of standards). 86 FR 47744,
47746.
As noted in the August 2021 MH SNOPR, several data sources that
served as inputs to the August 2021 MH SNOPR have since been updated to
include more recent data that DOE did not incorporate in its analyses
in the August 2021 MH SNOPR. 86 FR 47758. DOE sought comment on the use
of these data sources for this rulemaking. Further, based on comments
and consultations with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban
Development (HUD), DOE conducted a sensitivity analysis using an
alternate tier threshold based on size (e.g., single-section vs. multi-
section homes) for the tiered proposal. DOE also performed a
sensitivity analysis with alternate wall insulation requirements for
climate zones 2 and 3 for both the tiered and the untiered standards.
This notice of data availability (NODA) announces the availability of
these updated inputs and corresponding analyses results and invites
interested parties to submit comments on these analyses or provide any
additional data. DOE will consider the updated inputs and corresponding
analyses, as well comments on the inputs and analyses, as part of this
rulemaking. DOE may further revise the analysis presented in this
rulemaking based on any new or updated information or data it obtains.
DOE encourages stakeholders to provide any additional data or
information that may inform the analysis.
II. Summary of the Analyses Performed by the Department of Energy
DOE conducted analyses of manufactured housing for both the August
2021 MH SNOPR and this NODA in the following areas: (1) Life-cycle cost
(``LCC'') and payback period (``PBP''), (2) national impacts, and (3)
emissions impacts.
DOE conducts LCC and PBP analyses to evaluate the economic impacts
on individual consumers of energy conservation standards for
manufactured housing. The LCC is the total consumer expense of a
manufactured home over the life of that home, consisting of total
installed cost plus total operating costs. To compute the total
operating costs, DOE discounts future operating costs to the time of
purchase and sums them over the lifetime of the product (or another
specified period).\1\ The PBP is the estimated amount of time (in
years) it takes consumers to recover the increased purchase cost of a
more-efficient manufactured home through lower operating costs.
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\1\ In the August 2021 SNOPR, DOE performed LCC analyses for a
30-year period, based on the assumed lifetime of manufactured homes.
86 FR 87744, 87791-87792. Additionally, based on comments received,
to measure the LCC of the first homeowner of a manufactured home,
DOE also performed LCC analyses for a 10-year period. Id. Analyses
for both a 30-year and 10-year period are presented in this NODA.
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DOE conducts the national impact analysis (``NIA'') to assess the
national energy savings (``NES'') and the national net present value
(``NPV'') from a national perspective of total consumer costs and
savings that would be expected to result from new or amended standards.
DOE calculates the NES and NPV based on projections of annual product
shipments, along with the annual energy consumption and total
incremental cost data from the LCC analyses.
Finally, DOE estimates environmental benefits in the form of
reduced emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases associated
with electricity production. DOE bases these estimates on a 30-year
analysis period of manufactured home shipments and includes the
reductions in emissions that accrue over the 30-year home lifetime.
DOE's analysis estimates reductions in emissions of six pollutants
associated with energy savings: Carbon dioxide (CO2),
mercury (Hg), nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide (NOX),
sulfur dioxide (SO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous
oxide (N2O). These reductions are referred to as ``site''
emissions reductions. Furthermore, DOE estimates reductions due to
``upstream'' activities in the fuel production chain. These upstream
activities comprise extraction, processing, and transporting fuels to
the site of combustion. Together, site emissions reductions and
upstream emissions reductions account for the FFC. Further, DOE
calculates the value of the reduced emissions of CO2,
CH4, and N2O (collectively, greenhouse gases or
GHGs) using a range of values per metric ton of pollutant, consistent
with the interim estimates issued in February 2021 under Executive
Order 13990. Separately, DOE also estimates the monetary benefits from
the reduced emissions of NOX and SO2.
III. Summary of the Updated Inputs Since the August 2021 MH SNOPR
As noted in the August 2021 MH SNOPR, several data sources that
served as inputs to the August 2021 MH SNOPR have since been updated to
include more recent data that DOE did not incorporate in its analyses
in the August 2021 MH SNOPR. 86 FR 47758. Table III.1 presents a
summary of the updated inputs and the analyses that are impacted
because of the updates to the data. DOE will consider the updated
inputs and corresponding analyses, as well comments on the inputs and
analyses, as part of this rulemaking. DOE may further revise the
analysis presented in this rulemaking based on any new or updated
information or data it obtains. DOE encourages stakeholders to provide
any additional data or information that may inform the analysis.
Table III.1--Updated Inputs to the Analysis Conducted for the Energy
Conservation Standards
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SNOPR NODA Analyses impacted
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014 Consumer Finance Protection 2021 CFPB Impacts the LCC,
Bureau (CFPB) Manufactured Manufactured PBP and NIA
Housing Finance Report. Housing Finance analyses.
Report.
2019 Manufactured Housing Survey 2020 MHS.......... Determines the
(MHS). manufacturer's
retail list price
threshold for the
tiered proposal,
and affects
shipments for NIA
and emissions
analyses.
Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2020 AEO 2021.......... Impacts the LCC,
PBP, NIA and
emissions
analyses.
2019 Shipments.................. 2020 Shipments.... Impacts the NIA
and emissions
analyses.
2015 Energy Star Shipments...... 2020 Energy Star
Shipments.
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[[Page 59044]]
Sections III.A through III.D provide a summary of the input updates
for this NODA. Sections IV through VI provide the LCC, PBP, national
and emissions impacts results based on the input updates discussed in
this section.
A. 2021 CFPB Manufactured Housing Finance Report
The CFPB manufactured housing (``MH'') report analyzes the
differences between mortgage loans used for site-built homes, and
mortgage loans and chattel loans used for manufactured homes.\2\ For
the August 2021 MH SNOPR, the proposed manufacturer's retail list price
tier threshold for the tiered standard was developed using loan data
derived from the 2014 CFPB report,\3\ and purchase price data derived
from the MHS 2019 Public Use File (``PUF'') data.\4\ 86 FR 47744,
47760. In this NODA, DOE maintained the same analysis as the August
2021 MH SNOPR, but updated the CFPB MH report source to the latest
version, which is the 2021 CFPB MH report. Section III.B provides the
discussion regarding the updated purchase price data using MHS 2020 PUF
data.
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\2\ Manufactured Housing Finance: New Insights from the Home
Mortgage Disclosure Act; https://www.consumerfinance.gov/data-research/research-reports/manufactured-housing-finance-new-insights-hmda/.
\3\ CFPB report, 2014. https://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/201409_cfpb_report_manufactured-housing.pdf.
\4\ Manufactured Housing Survey, Public Use File (PUF) 2019.
https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/2019/econ/mhs/puf.html.
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To calculate the tier threshold for the tiered standard, DOE
considered that low-income purchasers of manufactured homes would
mostly likely use chattel loans, or similar loans that are high-
priced.\5\ The 2014 CFPB MH report explicitly stated that high-priced
manufactured housing loans (including chattel loans) account for
roughly 68 percent of total manufactured housing loans.\6\
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\5\ The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau (CFPB) generally
describes a higher-priced mortgage loan as a loan with an annual
percentage rate, or APR, higher than a benchmark rate called the
Average Prime Offer Rate. The requirements for this loan can be
found in 12 CFR 1026.35.
\6\ 2014 CFPB MH report; See page 6.
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The 2021 CFPB MH report no longer reports this information.
Instead, the 2021 CFPB MH report lists the proportion of loans that are
chattel loans, as well as the proportion of chattel and non-chattel
loans that are high-priced loans. The 2021 CFPB MH report states that
42 percent of all manufactured home loans are chattel loans;
accordingly, DOE determined that the remaining (58 percent) would be
non-chattel loans. Of the chattel loans, the 2021 CFPB MH report states
that 93.8 percent are high-priced loans. Similarly, of the non-chattel
loans, the 2021 CFPB MH report states that 52.4 percent are high-priced
loans. Using these data, DOE estimates that approximately 70 percent
(42% * 93.8% + 58% * 52.4% = 70%) of all manufactured housing loans
(i.e., chattel and non-chattel loans) were high-priced loans.
Accordingly, for this NODA, DOE assumed that high-priced manufactured
housing loans (including chattel loans) account for roughly 70 percent
of total manufactured housing loans. This percentage is used to
determine the updated manufacturer's retail list price tier threshold,
which is discussed further in section III.B.
Additionally, the 2021 CFPB MH report also lists the median chattel
loan term as 23 years, which differs from the 15-year value that DOE
assumed in the August 2021 MH SNOPR, which was based on suggestions
from the MH working group. 86 FR 47744, 47793. For this NODA, DOE
assumes a chattel loan term of 23 years, which is consistent with the
2021 CFPB MH report. The impact of the longer loan on the analysis is
that it increased LCC savings and decreased NPV at 3 percent discount
rate.
B. 2020 Manufactured Housing Survey
The MHS, which is sponsored by HUD and collected by the Census
Bureau, provides data on shipments, prices and characteristics of new
manufactured housing.\7\ Specifically, the MHS PUF data provide
estimates of average sales prices for new manufactured homes sold or
intended for sale by geographical region and size of home.
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\7\ Manufactured Housing Survey; www.census.gov/programs-surveys/mhs.html.
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As discussed in section III.A, for the August 2021 MH SNOPR, the
purchase price data used to determine the manufacturer's retail list
price tier threshold was derived from the MHS 2019 PUF data. 86 FR
47744, 47760. In this section, DOE discusses the updates based on the
latest MHS data, which is the MHS 2020 PUF data.\8\
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\8\ Manufactured Housing Survey, Public Use File (PUF) 2020.
https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/2020/econ/mhs/puf.html.
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The MHS 2020 PUF data set provides data that relates Census region
(the U.S. Census Bureau divides the country into four census regions)
with sales price. Table III.2 summarizes the average, minimum and
maximum sales prices based on census region and number of sections. In
general, the data indicate that average sales price (specifically for
single-section homes) does not differ significantly based on census
region.
Table III.2--MHS PUF 2020 Census Region and Sales Price Data
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section sales price (2020$) Dual-section sales price* (2020$)
Census region -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Average Minimum Maximum Average Minimum Maximum
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Northeast............................................... $57,916 $35,600 $95,000 $107,951 $56,000 $233,000
Midwest................................................. 56,983 33,200 79,000 104,987 54,000 184,000
South................................................... 56,798 31,400 79,000 106,942 58,000 170,000
West.................................................... 61,748 34,100 117,000 118,282 64,000 236,000
All..................................................... 57,233 31,400 117,000 108,583 54,000 236,000
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* The MHS PUF 2020 dataset provides multi-section home sales price separately for dual-section homes and triple-section (or larger) homes; however the
triple-section (or larger) homes data is not differentiated by census region. Therefore, DOE only presents the dual-section data in this table, which
should generally represent the sales price for multi-section homes (triple-section or larger represent 1 percent of the market in 2020 based on the
MHS PUF 2020 dataset).
Further, the MHS also summarizes average manufactured home sales
price by state.\9\ Table III.3 presents the average sales prices in
2020 per HUD climate zone based on the MHS data discussed previously
and manufactured
[[Page 59045]]
home shipments published by Manufactured Housing Institute.\10\
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\9\ Manufactured Housing Survey, Annual Tables of New
Manufactured Homes: 2014-2020; https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/econ/mhs/annual-data.html.
\10\ Manufactured Housing Institute, Annual Production and
Shipment Data; https://www.manufacturedhousing.org/annual-production/ production/.
Table III.3--MHS Average Sales Price Data by HUD Climate Zone
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Dual-section
HUD climate zone average sales average sales
price (2020$) price (2020$)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1....................................... $57,124 $107,003
2....................................... 57,290 111,208
3....................................... 56,207 109,147
------------------------------------------------------------------------
To determine the updated manufacturer's retail list price tier in a
similar manner to what was considered in the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE
assumed that price-sensitive, low-income purchasers rely on high-priced
loans, given the inability to qualify for conventional loans. Based on
the analysis in section III.A, the 70th percentile manufactured housing
price gives an estimate for the upper bound for a manufactured home
sales price that a price-sensitive low-income purchaser could afford.
If people typically receive one primary loan, the percentage of high-
priced loans used should be roughly equivalent to the percentage of
people receiving high-priced loans (e.g., 70 percent). DOE considered
that low-income purchasers would mainly purchase single-section homes
that are, on average, at a lower sales price than multi-section homes.
Applying the 70th percentile for single-section manufactured homes
using the MHS PUF 2020 data yields a sales price of approximately
$63,000 (in real 2020$).
Using the updated tier threshold at $63,000 (in real 2020$) and the
MHS PUF 2020 data set, DOE determined the shipment breakdown based on
tier and climate zone using the same methodology as presented in the
August 2021 MH SNOPR. 86 FR 47744, 47809-47810. This included applying
a ``substitution effect'' \11\ to 20 percent of homes within $1,000 of
the price threshold ($63,001-$64,000) that would shift to less
stringent standards, i.e., from Tier 2 to Tier 1. Id. Accordingly,
Table III.4 presents the corresponding percentage of total manufactured
homes placed/sold applicable to each tier based on climate zone and
size using the updated inputs. Compared to the August 2021 MH SNOPR, a
higher percentage of single-section manufactured home shipments are in
Tier 1, i.e., Climate zone 1 or 2: 73.85 percent in this document vs.
53.58 percent in the August 2021 MH SNOPR; Climate zone 3: 73.28
percent in this document vs. 57.32 percent in the August 2021 MH
SNOPR). Further, a portion of multi-section manufactured home shipments
will also be in Tier 1.
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\11\ DOE considered that a percentage of manufactured homes
placed/sold would shift to less stringent standards, i.e., a
percentage of homes from Tier 2 would shift to Tier 1. The inclusion
of this shift in the market is to more accurately estimate energy
savings (and other downstream results).
Table III.4--Shipment Breakdown Based on Tier and Proposed Climate Zone
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Climate zone 1 or 2 Climate zone 3
---------------------------------------------------------------- Combined
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section climate zone
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
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Tier 1 Standard................. 74 5 73 3 35
Tier 2 Standard................. 26 95 27 97 65
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Total....................... 100 100 100 100 100
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C. AEO 2021
The AEO presents long-term annual projections of energy supply,
demand, and prices. The projections, focused on U.S. energy markets,
are based on results from DOE Energy Information Administration's
(``EIA'') National Energy Modeling System (``NEMS''). NEMS enables EIA
to make projections under internally consistent sets of assumptions.
DOE used AEO projections as inputs into several analyses for the August
2021 MH SNOPR, which are discussed in more detail in this section.
For the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE used inputs from AEO 2020 for
establishing energy prices, escalation rates, inflation rates and
housing starts. 86 FR 47744, 47794. In this NODA, DOE maintains the
same source as the August 2021 MH SNOPR, but updated the AEO source to
the latest version, which is AEO 2021.\12\ Further, DOE updated the
electricity prices from the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook.\13\
Specifically, DOE used electricity prices from 2020 quarter 2 and
quarter 3 for summer electricity prices, and quarter 4 of 2020 and
quarter 1 of 2021 for winter electricity prices. Table III.5 presents a
comparison of the August 2021 MH SNOPR and NODA fuel prices and
escalation rates.
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\12\ Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook
2021 with Projections to 2050. (2021).
\13\ Energy Information Administration. Short-Term Energy
Outlook: Real Prices Viewer. Available at: www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/realprices/.
Table III.5--AEO 2021 Fuel Prices and Escalation Rates Updates
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SNOPR NODA
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Escalation Escalation
Price rate (%) Price rate (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Electricity:
Summer........................ 13.3 cents/kWh....... 2.3 13.3 cents/kWh....... 2.2
Winter........................ 12.9 cents/kWh 13.2 cents/kWh
Natural gas....................... 10.3 $/MBtu.......... 2.8 10.1 $/Mbtu.......... 2.8
Liquid petroleum gas (LPG)........ 21.6 $/Mbtu.......... 4.1 17.3 $/Mbtu.......... 3.7
Oil............................... 22.8 $/Mbtu.......... 3.3 17.8 $/Mbtu.......... 3.8
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[[Page 59046]]
To forecast the nominal price increase of manufactured homes, DOE
used the inflation forecast rate built into the AEO 2021 at 2.28
percent, compared to the August 2021 MH SNOPR inflation based on AEO
2020 at 2.33 percent. To forecast shipments into the future, DOE used a
5-year-average projection for growth in new housing starts from AEO
2021 resulting in a 0.42 percent growth per year compared to the August
2021 MH SNOPR projection for growth based on AEO 2020 at 0.3 percent
growth per year.
For the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE derived annual average site-to-
power plant factors based on the version of the NEMS that corresponds
to AEO 2020. DOE calculated primary energy savings (power plant
consumption) from site electricity savings by applying a factor to
account for losses associated with the generation, transmission, and
distribution of electricity. DOE computed the full-fuel cycle (``FFC'')
by encompassing the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and
transporting or distributing primary fuels, which we refer to as
``upstream'' activities. 86 FR 47744, 47814. In this NODA, DOE updated
the same inputs to AEO 2021. Table III.6 presents a comparison of the
August 2021 MH SNOPR (based on AEO 2020) and NODA (based on AEO 2021)
primary energy and FFC factors.
Table III.6--Primary Energy and FFC Factors, 2020-2050
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Dimensionless factor
Factor type Fuel type ---------------------------------------------------------------
2020 2030 2040 2050
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SNOPR
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Primary....................... Electricity..... 2.881 2.669 2.650 2.653
FFC........................... Electricity..... 1.049 1.044 1.044 1.041
Natural Gas..... 1.109 1.114 1.112 1.107
LPG/Oil......... 1.174 1.172 1.176 1.180
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NODA
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Primary....................... Electricity..... 2.845 2.714 2.698 2.677
FFC........................... Electricity..... 1.044 1.039 1.037 1.037
Natural Gas..... 1.101 1.098 1.098 1.099
LPG/Oil......... 1.169 1.171 1.179 1.185
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
For the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE also used the AEO 2020 to derive
the power sector marginal emissions intensity factors for
CO2, NOX, SO2, and Hg. 86 FR 47744,
47814. For this NODA, DOE updated the emissions factors to AEO 2021.
Finally, in the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE also proposed that under
the tiered proposal the manufacturer's retail list price thresholds
would be adjusted for inflation (for the applicable year of compliance)
using the most recently available AEO GDP deflator time series, which
at the time was AEO 2020. 86 FR 47744, 47761. As such, in Table III.7,
DOE provides the updated AEO 2021 GDP deflator series.
Table III.7--AEO 2021 GDP Deflator
------------------------------------------------------------------------
GDP deflator
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020.................................................... 1
2025.................................................... 1.0756
2030.................................................... 1.2203
2035.................................................... 1.3702
2040.................................................... 1.5208
2045.................................................... 1.7038
2050.................................................... 1.9527
------------------------------------------------------------------------
D. 2020 Shipments
The Institute for Building Technology and Safety (``IBTS'')
provides yearly shipments of manufactured homes, which is also
published by the Manufactured Housing Institute (``MHI'').\14\ For the
August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE considered the 2019 shipment data provided
through MHI as the latest data available at the time of the analysis.
86 FR 47744, 47798. For the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE only received
historical shipment data of ENERGY STAR certified manufactured homes
categorized by state from 2001 to 2015. Chapter 10 of the August 2021
MH SNOPR Technical Support Document (``TSD''). Further, DOE did not
account for ENERGY STAR homes for the no-standard shipments and
therefore excluded any ENERGY STAR shipments to avoid overestimating
energy savings. 86 FR 47744, 47808.
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\14\ See Manufactured Home Shipments by Product Mix, 2019,
Manufactured Housing Institute. www.manufacturedhousing.org/annual-
production/.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In this NODA, DOE updated the August 2021 MH SNOPR analysis by
considering the 2020 shipment data provided through MHI.\15\ Further,
DOE also received updated 2020 ENERGY STAR shipment data, albeit not
separated by size (i.e., single-section vs. multi-section). DOE notes
that there are more ENERGY STAR shipments in 2020 than projected in the
August 2021 MH SNOPR, which reduces the total number of shipments
applicable for the no-standards case and standards case compared to the
August 2021 MH SNOPR, in turn reducing the net present value (NPV) for
both the untiered and tiered standards. Finally, as discussed in
section III.C, DOE also updated the housing starts (shipment growth
rate) to be consistent with AEO 2021. Table III.8 and Table III.9
presents the single-section and multi-section manufactured home
shipments considered in the August 2021 MH SNOPR and this NODA.
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\15\ See Manufactured Home Shipments by Product Mix, 2020,
Manufactured Housing Institute. www.manufacturedhousing.org/annual-
production/.
[[Page 59047]]
Table III.8--Single-Section Manufactured Homes Shipments
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No-Standards case Tiered standard Untiered standard
Year -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SNOPR NODA SNOPR NODA SNOPR NODA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025.................................................... 41,304 36,855 40,610 36,388 40,041 35,642
2030.................................................... 41,923 37,632 41,225 37,155 40,640 36,395
2035.................................................... 42,558 38,429 41,853 37,938 41,255 37,164
2040.................................................... 43,198 39,243 42,481 38,744 41,876 37,950
2045.................................................... 43,853 40,074 43,128 39,565 42,507 38,754
2050.................................................... 44,514 40,927 43,768 40,403 43,153 39,579
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table III.9--Multi-Section Manufactured Homes Shipments
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
No-Standards case Tiered standard Untiered standard
Year -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SNOPR NODA SNOPR NODA SNOPR NODA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025.................................................... 48,268 43,045 47,247 42,069 47,247 42,038
2030.................................................... 48,999 43,952 47,961 42,965 47,961 42,924
2035.................................................... 49,738 44,886 48,685 43,869 48,685 43,836
2040.................................................... 50,489 45,836 49,421 44,800 49,421 44,768
2045.................................................... 51,249 46,803 50,163 45,752 50,163 45,710
2050.................................................... 52,019 47,798 50,919 46,727 50,919 46,681
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IV. Summary of Updated SNOPR Analysis Results
This section provides the results for the LCC and PBP, NIA and
Emissions analyses based on the updates discussed in section III.
Table IV.1--Average Manufactured Housing Purchase Price (and Percentage) Increases Under the Tiered Standard
[2020$]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 Tier 2
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
$ % $ % $ % $ %
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.................................................. $627 1.2 $897 0.9 $2,567 4.8 $4,131 4.0
Climate Zone 2.................................................. 627 1.2 897 0.9 4,806 9.0 6,149 5.9
Climate Zone 3.................................................. 719 1.4 700 0.7 4,645 8.7 5,822 5.6
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
National Average............................................ 660 1.2 839 0.8 3,902 7.3 5,267 5.1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV.2--Average Manufactured Housing Purchase Price (and Percentage) Increases Under Untiered Standard
[2020$]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered
---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
---------------------------------------------------------------
$ % $ %
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.................................. $2,567 4.8 $4,131 4.0
Climate Zone 2.................................. 4,806 9.0 6,149 5.9
Climate Zone 3.................................. 4,645 8.7 5,822 5.6
---------------------------------------------------------------
National Average............................ 3,902 7.3 5,267 5.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV.3--Average Manufactured Home LCC Savings (30 Years) Under the Tiered Standard by Climate Zone
[2020$] *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 Tier 2
---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.................................. $1,042 $1,601 $2,427 $3,844
[[Page 59048]]
Climate Zone 2.................................. 1,143 1,705 1,156 1,983
Climate Zone 3.................................. 2,560 3,550 2,311 3,056
---------------------------------------------------------------
National Average............................ 1,606 2,205 2,045 3,023
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* No cities exhibit negative LCC savings in Tier 1. San Francisco is the only city that exhibits negative LCC
savings in Tier 2.
Table IV.4--Average Manufactured Home LCC Savings (30 Years) Under the Tiered Standard by Climate Zone
[2020$] *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 Tier 2
Climate zone City ---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1....................... Miami................. $460 $850 $1,345 $2,336
1....................... Houston............... 931 1,541 2,231 3,747
1....................... Atlanta............... 1,532 2,481 3,258 5,468
1....................... Charleston............ 1,093 1,773 2,494 4,176
1....................... Jackson............... 1,312 2,104 2,989 4,968
1....................... Birmingham............ 1,317 2,101 2,895 4,806
2....................... Phoenix............... 616 1,026 665 1,763
2....................... Memphis............... 1,493 2,364 1,491 2,743
2....................... El Paso............... 990 1,547 1,106 2,185
2....................... San Francisco......... 543 812 (387) (68)
2....................... Albuquerque........... 1,089 1,719 1,074 2,096
3....................... Baltimore............. 2,422 3,678 2,002 3,164
3....................... Salem................. 1,475 2,191 411 822
3....................... Chicago............... 2,443 3,738 2,018 3,239
3....................... Boise................. 1,682 2,562 890 1,558
3....................... Burlington............ 2,503 3,798 2,193 3,439
3....................... Helena................ 2,441 3,631 2,431 3,631
3....................... Duluth................ 3,917 5,794 5,013 7,256
3....................... Fairbanks............. 5,851 8,516 9,307 13,065
---------------------------------------------------------------
National Average...... 1,606 2,205 2,045 3,023
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values in parenthesis.
Table IV.5--Average Manufactured Home LCC Savings (30 Years) Under the
Untiered Standard by Climate Zone
[2020$] *
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... $2,154 $3,409
Climate Zone 2.......................... 863 1,573
Climate Zone 3.......................... 1,942 2,583
-------------------------------
National Average.................... 1,733 2,585
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* San Francisco is the only city that exhibits negative LCC savings in
the untiered standard results.
Table IV.6--Average Manufactured Home LCC Savings (30 Years) Under the
Untiered Standard by Climate Zone
[2020$] *
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate zone City Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1................... Miami............. $1,142 $1,998
1................... Houston........... 1,971 3,318
1................... Atlanta........... 2,931 4,928
1................... Charleston........ 2,217 3,719
1................... Jackson........... 2,680 4,459
1................... Birmingham........ 2,592 4,308
2................... Phoenix........... 403 1,368
2................... Memphis........... 1,176 2,286
[[Page 59049]]
2................... El Paso........... 817 1,766
2................... San Francisco..... (585) (349)
2................... Albuquerque....... 781 1,674
3................... Baltimore......... 1,662 2,696
3................... Salem............. 167 495
3................... Chicago........... 1,667 2,751
3................... Boise............. 614 1,183
3................... Burlington........ 1,822 2,929
3................... Helena............ 2,053 3,118
3................... Duluth............ 4,462 6,501
3................... Fairbanks......... 8,478 11,933
-------------------------------
National Average.. 1,733 2,585
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values in parenthesis.
Table IV.7--Average Manufactured Home Simple Payback Period Under the Tiered Standard by Climate Zone
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 Tier 2
---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.................................. 4.7 4.5 8.5 8.5
Climate Zone 2.................................. 4.5 4.4 13.3 12.5
Climate Zone 3.................................. 2.9 2.1 11.5 11.3
---------------------------------------------------------------
National Average............................ 3.7 3.5 11.0 10.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV.8--Average Manufactured Home Simple Payback Period Under the Tiered Standard by Climate Zone
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 Tier 2
Climate zone City ---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1....................... Miami................. 7.4 6.5 10.8 10.5
1....................... Houston............... 5.1 4.6 8.8 8.6
1....................... Atlanta............... 3.7 3.3 7.3 7.1
1....................... Charleston............ 4.6 4.2 8.4 8.2
1....................... Jackson............... 4.1 3.8 7.6 7.5
1....................... Birmingham............ 4.1 3.8 7.8 7.6
2....................... Phoenix............... 6.5 6.0 14.5 12.9
2....................... Memphis............... 3.7 3.5 12.6 11.4
2....................... El Paso............... 4.9 4.6 13.3 12.1
2....................... San Francisco......... 7.2 7.0 18.5 17.1
2....................... Albuquerque........... 4.8 4.5 13.9 12.7
3....................... Baltimore............. 2.9 2.0 11.5 10.7
3....................... Salem................. 4.3 3.2 15.8 15.1
3....................... Chicago............... 3.0 2.1 12.1 11.2
3....................... Boise................. 3.9 2.8 14.4 13.6
3....................... Burlington............ 3.0 2.1 12.2 11.3
3....................... Helena................ 3.0 2.1 11.4 10.7
3....................... Duluth................ 2.0 1.4 8.4 7.8
3....................... Fairbanks............. 1.4 1.0 5.7 5.3
---------------------------------------------------------------
National Average...... 3.7 3.5 11.0 10.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV.9--Average Manufactured Home Simple Payback Period Under the
Untiered Standard by Climate Zone
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 8.5 8.5
Climate Zone 2.......................... 13.3 12.5
Climate Zone 3.......................... 11.5 11.3
-------------------------------
[[Page 59050]]
National Average.................... 11.0 10.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV.10--Average Manufactured Home Simple Payback Period Under the
Untiered Standard by Climate Zone
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate zone City Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Miami............. 10.8 10.5
1 Houston........... 8.8 8.6
1 Atlanta........... 7.3 7.1
1 Charleston........ 8.4 8.2
1 Jackson........... 7.6 7.5
1 Birmingham........ 7.8 7.6
2 Phoenix........... 14.5 12.9
2 Memphis........... 12.6 11.4
2 El Paso........... 13.3 12.1
2 San Francisco..... 18.5 17.1
2 Albuquerque....... 13.9 12.7
3 Baltimore......... 11.5 10.7
3 Salem............. 15.8 15.1
3 Chicago........... 12.1 11.2
3 Boise............. 14.4 13.6
3 Burlington........ 12.2 11.3
3 Helena............ 11.4 10.7
3 Duluth............ 8.4 7.8
3 Fairbanks......... 5.7 5.3
-------------------------------
National Average.. 11.0 10.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV.11--National Average Per-Home Cost Savings *
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year $1,606 $2,205
Lifetime)..............................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year $726 $1,015
Lifetime)..............................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$..... $176 $238
Simple Payback Period................... 3.7 3.5
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 2 Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year $2,045 $3,023
Lifetime)..............................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year $78 $235
Lifetime)..............................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$..... $354 $496
Simple Payback Period................... 11.0 10.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year $1,733 $2,585
Lifetime)..............................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year ($57) $50
Lifetime)..............................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$..... $354 $496
Simple Payback Period................... 11.0 10.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values in parenthesis.
Table IV.12--Cumulative Full-Fuel-Cycle National Energy Savings of
Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 with a 30-Year Lifetime
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section
quadrillion Multi-section
Btu (quads) (quads)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 0.163 0.526
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.139 0.475
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.274 0.435
-------------------------------
[[Page 59051]]
Total............................... 0.576 1.436
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 0.276 0.542
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.249 0.489
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.370 0.439
-------------------------------
Total............................... 0.894 1.470
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV.13--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured
Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime at a 7% Discount Rate
*
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
billion 2020$ billion 2020$
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... $0.15 $0.31
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.08 (0.01)
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.33 0.18
-------------------------------
Total............................... 0.56 0.48
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... $0.16 $0.30
Climate Zone 2.......................... (0.06) (0.04)
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.11 0.16
-------------------------------
Total............................... 0.21 0.42
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values in parenthesis.
Table IV.14--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured
Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime at a 3% Discount Rate
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
billion 2020$ billion 2020$
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... $0.45 $1.15
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.29 0.45
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.99 0.86
-------------------------------
Total............................... 1.73 2.47
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... $0.57 $1.11
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.09 0.35
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.62 0.78
-------------------------------
Total............................... 1.28 2.23
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV.15--Emissions Reductions Associated With Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered standard Untiered standards
Pollutant ---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Site Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)....................... 23.7 55.1 35.7 56.2
Hg (metric tons)................................ 0.037 0.097 0.058 0.0995
NOX (thousand metric tons)...................... 12.9 27.5 18.8 28.0
[[Page 59052]]
SO2 (thousand metric tons)...................... 8.8 20.9 13.4 21.3
CH4 (thousand metric tons)...................... 1.28 3.16 1.97 3.24
N2O (thousand metric tons)...................... 0.26 0.58 0.383 0.591
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Upstream Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)....................... 2.4 5.2 3.52 5.3
Hg (metric tons)................................ 1.84E-04 4.52E-04 2.84E-04 4.63E-04
NOX (thousand metric tons)...................... 30.4 66.6 44.8 68
SO2 (thousand metric tons)...................... 0.24 0.48 0.343 0.49
CH4 (thousand metric tons)...................... 155 362 234 370
N2O (thousand metric tons)...................... 0.013 0.027 0.019 0.028
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)....................... 26.2 60.3 39.3 61.5
Hg (metric tons)................................ 0.037 0.097 0.059 0.1
NOX (thousand metric tons)...................... 43 94.1 64 96
SO2 (thousand metric tons)...................... 9.1 21.4 13.7 21.8
CH4 (thousand metric tons)...................... 156 365 236 373
N2O (thousand metric tons)...................... 0.27 0.61 0.40 0.62
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table IV.16--Net Present Value of Monetized Benefits From GHG and Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net present value million 2020$
---------------------------------------------------------------
Discount rate Tiered standard Untiered Standard
% ---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG Reduction (using avg. social 5 254.2 587.8 382.2 600.7
costs at 5% discount rate) *...
GHG Reduction (using avg. social 3 1,074.3 2,481.0 1,614.1 2,535.2
costs at 3% discount rate) *...
GHG Reduction (using avg. social 2.5 1,763.2 4,069.6 2,648.5 4,158.4
costs at 2.5% discount rate) *.
GHG Reduction (using 95th 3 3,229.0 7,454.7 4,850.7 7,617.5
percentile social costs at 3%
discount rate) *...............
NOX Reduction **................ 3 114.5 233.6 165.0 243.1
7 39.9 81.6 57.5 84.9
SO2 Reduction **................ 3 176.2 373.2 257.2 389.0
7 62.0 132.3 90.8 137.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Estimates of SC-CO2 SC-CH4, and SC-N2O are calculated using a range of discount rates for use in regulatory
analyses. Three sets of values are based on the average social costs from the integrated assessment models, at
discount rates of 5 percent, 3 percent, and 2.5 percent. The fourth set, which represents the 95th percentile
of the social cost distributions. calculated using a 3-percent discount rate, is included to represent higher-
than-expected impacts from climate change further out in the tails of the social cost distributions. The
social cost values are emission year specific. See section IV.D of the August 2021 MH SNOPR for more details.
** The benefits from NOX and SO2 were based on the low estimate monetized value.
V. Sensitivity Analysis Results--Alternate Size-Based Tier Threshold
for the Tiered Standard
For this NODA, DOE also considered a sensitivity analysis where the
tier threshold for the tiered standard would be based on the
manufactured home size instead of the manufacturer's retail list price.
Specifically, the Tier 1 standard would apply to all single-section
homes, and the Tier 2 standard would apply to all multi-section homes.
Table V.1 presents the updated shipments breakdown for this sensitivity
analysis using the MHS 2020 PUF data set.
Table V.1--Shipment Breakdown Based on Tier Under the Alternate Size-Based Threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
All climate zones
-----------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
(%) (%) Total (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 Standard................................................. 100 0 45
Tier 2 Standard................................................. 0 100 55
-----------------------------------------------
[[Page 59053]]
Total....................................................... 100 100 100
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
The following tables present the results for the NIA and emissions
analyses results based on the alternate size-based tier threshold for
the tiered standard only. DOE notes that the LCC and PBP analyses
results presented in section IV for both the tiered and untiered
standards would not change for this sensitivity analysis. This is
because the LCC and PBP analysis evaluates the economic impacts on
individual consumers of energy conservation standards for manufactured
housing, not the entire nation. Further, the NIA and emissions results
presented in section IV for the untiered standard would also not change
for this sensitivity analysis because the tier threshold does not
apply.
Table V.2--Cumulative Full-Fuel-Cycle National Energy Savings of
Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime Under the
Alternate Size-Based Threshold
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered standard
-------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
(quads) (quads)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 0.123 0.542
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.100 0.489
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.239 0.439
-------------------------------
Total............................... 0.462 1.470
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table V.3--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year
Lifetime Under the Alternate Size-Based Threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard
---------------------------------------------------------------
7% discount rate 3% discount rate
---------------------------------------------------------------
Multi-section Multi-section
Single-section * billion Single-section * billion
billion 2020$ 2020$ billion 2020$ 2020$
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.................................. $0.15 $0.31 $0.40 $1.17
Climate Zone 2.................................. 0.13 (0.03) 0.35 0.44
Climate Zone 3.................................. 0.40 0.17 1.10 0.85
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................................... 0.68 0.45 1.85 2.46
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values in parenthesis.
Table V.4--Emissions Reductions Associated for Manufactured Homes
Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime Under the Alternate Size-
Based Threshold
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Site Emissions Reductions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)............... 19.5 56.2
Hg (metric tons)........................ 0.0292 0.0995
NOX (thousand metric tons).............. 10.9 28.0
SO2 (thousand metric tons).............. 7.2 21.3
CH4 (thousand metric tons).............. 1.03 3.24
N2O (thousand metric tons).............. 0.21 0.59
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Upstream Emissions Reductions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)............... 2.0 5.3
Hg (metric tons)........................ 1.48E-04 4.63E-04
NOX (thousand metric tons).............. 25.4 68.0
SO2 (thousand metric tons).............. 0.21 0.49
CH4 (thousand metric tons).............. 127 370
N2O (thousand metric tons).............. 0.011 0.028
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 59054]]
Total Emissions Reductions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)............... 21.5 61.5
Hg (metric tons)........................ 0.029 0.100
NOX (thousand metric tons).............. 36.3 96
SO2 (thousand metric tons).............. 7.4 21.8
CH4 (thousand metric tons).............. 128 373
N2O (thousand metric tons).............. 0.23 0.62
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table V.5--Net Present Value of Monetized Benefits From GHG and Emissions Reductions Under the Alternate Size-
Based Threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered standard
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net present value million
Discount rate 2020$
Monetary benefits % -------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 5% discount rate) *... 5 208.5 600.7
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 3% discount rate) *... 3 881.3 2,535.2
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 2.5% discount rate) *. 2.5 1,446.6 4,158.4
GHG Reduction (using 95th percentile social costs at 3% discount 3 2,648.9 7,617.5
rate) *........................................................
NOX Reduction **................................................ 3 96.4 243.1
7 33.5 84.9
SO2 Reduction **................................................ 3 147.2 389.0
7 51.7 137.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Estimates of SC-CO2 SC-CH4, and SC-N2O are calculated using a range of discount rates for use in regulatory
analyses. Three sets of values are based on the average social costs from the integrated assessment models, at
discount rates of 5 percent, 3 percent, and 2.5 percent. The fourth set, which represents the 95th percentile
of the social cost distributions calculated using a 3-percent discount rate, is included to represent higher-
than-expected impacts from climate change further out in the tails of the social cost distributions. The
social cost values are emission year specific. See section IV.D of the August 2021 MH SNOPR for more details.
** The benefits from NOX and SO2 were based on the low estimate monetized value.
VI. Sensitivity Analysis Results--Alternate R-21 Exterior Wall
Insulation for Climate Zone 2 and 3 for Tier 2 and Untiered Standards
For this NODA, DOE also conducted a sensitivity analysis using less
stringent measures for exterior wall insulation for the Tier 2 and
untiered standards. Specifically, the component requirements proposed
in the August 2021 MH SNOPR for the prescriptive path for Climate Zone
2 and 3 require that exterior walls be sealed using R-20+5 exterior
wall insulation. DOE proposed this requirement based on the 2021 IECC
without modification. The ``+5'' involves using ``continuous
insulation,'' which is insulation that runs continuously over
structural members and is free of significant thermal bridging. DOE's
proposal requires continuous insulation only for the exterior wall
insulation component. 86 FR 47744, 47772.
Accordingly, in this NODA, DOE considered a sensitivity analysis
wherein DOE analyzed a less stringent exterior wall insulation
requirement for the Tier 2/untiered standard instead. In this
sensitivity analysis, DOE considered an R-21 exterior wall insulation
as opposed to the proposed R-20+5, which would require continuous
insulation. At R-20+5, the incremental cost relative to the baseline is
$2,500, versus $850 for R-21. For this analysis, DOE maintained the
NODA-updated manufacturer tier threshold (at $60,000 in real 2020$) for
the tiered standard.
The following tables present the results based on the alternate
wall insulation for climate zone 2 and 3 for the Tier 2 and untiered
standards only. DOE notes that the Tier 1 results presented in section
IV would not change for this sensitivity analysis.
Table VI.1--Average Manufactured Housing Purchase Price (and Percentage) Increases Under Tier 2 of the Tiered
Standard and the Untiered Standard
[2020$]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 2/untiered
---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
---------------------------------------------------------------
$ % $ %
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.................................. $2,567 4.8 $4,131 4.0
Climate Zone 2.................................. 3,082 5.8 4,438 4.3
Climate Zone 3.................................. 2,921 5.5 4,111 4.0
---------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 59055]]
National Average............................ 2,830 5.3 4,222 4.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.2--Average Manufactured Home LCC Savings (30 Years) by Climate Zone
[2020$] *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 2 standard Untiered standard
---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.................................. $2,427 $3,844 $2,154 $3,409
Climate Zone 2.................................. 2,401 3,238 2,105 2,826
Climate Zone 3.................................. 3,333 4,101 2,977 3,639
---------------------------------------------------------------
National Average............................ 2,740 3,727 2,432 3,291
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* No cities exhibit negative LCC savings in Tier 1 or Tier 2.
Table VI.3--Average Manufactured Home LCC Savings (30 Years) by Climate Zone
[2020$]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 2 standard Untiered standard
Climate zone City ---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1....................... Miami................. $1,345 $2,336 $1,142 $1,998
1....................... Houston............... 2,231 3,747 1,971 3,318
1....................... Atlanta............... 3,258 5,468 2,931 4,928
1....................... Charleston............ 2,494 4,176 2,217 3,719
1....................... Jackson............... 2,989 4,968 2,680 4,459
1....................... Birmingham............ 2,895 4,806 2,592 4,308
2....................... Phoenix............... 1,987 3,076 1,718 2,674
2....................... Memphis............... 2,718 3,967 2,402 3,508
2....................... El Paso............... 2,353 3,431 2,061 3,008
2....................... San Francisco......... 951 1,274 745 985
2....................... Albuquerque........... 2,306 3,325 2,012 2,902
3....................... Baltimore............. 3,053 4,211 2,723 3,752
3....................... Salem................. 1,582 1,992 1,341 1,668
3....................... Chicago............... 3,079 4,291 2,738 3,814
3....................... Boise................. 2,001 2,669 1,732 2,301
3....................... Burlington............ 3,230 4,468 2,872 3,970
3....................... Helena................ 3,381 4,583 3,021 4,087
3....................... Duluth................ 5,778 8,015 5,258 7,290
3....................... Fairbanks............. 9,600 13,363 8,831 12,291
---------------------------------------------------------------
National Average...... 2,740 3,727 2,432 3,291
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.4--Average Manufactured Home Simple Payback Period by Climate
Zone
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 2/untiered standard
-------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 8.5 8.5
Climate Zone 2.......................... 9.3 9.6
Climate Zone 3.......................... 8.1 8.6
-------------------------------
National Average.................... 8.5 8.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 59056]]
Table VI.5--Average Manufactured Home Simple Payback Period by Climate
Zone
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 2 standard/untiered
standard
Climate zone City -------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1 Miami............. 10.8 10.5
1 Houston........... 8.8 8.6
1 Atlanta........... 7.3 7.1
1 Charleston........ 8.4 8.2
1 Jackson........... 7.6 7.5
1 Birmingham........ 7.8 7.6
2 Phoenix........... 10.1 9.8
2 Memphis........... 8.8 8.7
2 El Paso........... 9.3 9.3
2 San Francisco..... 13.0 13.2
2 Albuquerque....... 9.7 9.7
3 Baltimore......... 8.1 8.2
3 Salem............. 11.2 11.6
3 Chicago........... 8.5 8.5
3 Boise............. 10.3 10.5
3 Burlington........ 8.6 8.7
3 Helena............ 8.1 8.2
3 Duluth............ 5.9 5.9
3 Fairbanks......... 4.0 4.1
-------------------------------
National Average.. 8.5 8.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.6--National Average Per-Home Cost Savings
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 2 Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year $2,740 $3,727
Lifetime)..............................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year $632 $788
Lifetime)..............................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$..... $331 $475
Simple Payback Period................... 8.5 8.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year $2,432 $3,291
Lifetime)..............................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year $518 $622
Lifetime)..............................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$..... $331 $475
Simple Payback Period................... 8.5 8.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.7--Cumulative Full-Fuel-Cycle National Energy Savings of
Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 with a 30-Year Lifetime
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
(quads) (quads)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 0.163 0.526
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.134 0.451
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.265 0.405
-------------------------------
Total............................... 0.562 1.382
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 0.276 0.542
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.231 0.463
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.336 0.408
-------------------------------
Total............................... 0.843 1.414
------------------------------------------------------------------------
[[Page 59057]]
Table VI.8--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured
Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime at a 7% Discount Rate
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
billion 2020$ billion 2020$
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... $0.15 $0.31
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.12 0.21
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.37 0.33
-------------------------------
Total............................... 0.65 0.85
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 0.16 0.30
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.10 0.20
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.29 0.32
-------------------------------
Total............................... 0.55 0.82
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.9--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured
Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime at a 3% Discount Rate
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
billion 2020$ billion 2020$
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... $0.45 $1.15
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.37 0.89
Climate Zone 3.......................... 1.07 1.16
-------------------------------
Total............................... 1.90 3.20
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 0.57 1.11
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.43 0.83
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.96 1.10
-------------------------------
Total............................... 1.96 3.03
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.10--Emissions Reductions for Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered standard Untiered standard
Pollutant ---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Site Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)....................... 23.1 52.7 33.5 53.8
Hg (metric tons)................................ 0.036 0.094 0.055 0.096
NOX (thousand metric tons)...................... 12.6 26.1 17.4 26.6
SO2 (thousand metric tons)...................... 8.6 20.0 12.5 20.4
CH4 (thousand metric tons)...................... 1.25 3.04 1.86 3.11
N2O (thousand metric tons)...................... 0.25 0.55 0.36 0.57
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Upstream Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)....................... 2.35 5.0 3.3 5.1
Hg (metric tons)................................ 1.79E-04 4.35E-04 2.67E-04 4.45E-04
NOX (thousand metric tons)...................... 29.6 63.5 41.7 64.8
SO2 (thousand metric tons)...................... 0.24 0.46 0.318 0.47
CH4 (thousand metric tons)...................... 151 347 219 354
N2O (thousand metric tons)...................... 0.013 0.026 0.017 0.026
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)....................... 25.5 57.7 36.8 58.9
Hg (metric tons)................................ 0.036 0.094 0.056 0.096
NOX (thousand metric tons)...................... 42 90 59 91
SO2 (thousand metric tons)...................... 8.9 20.4 12.9 20.9
CH4 (thousand metric tons)...................... 152 350 221 357
[[Page 59058]]
N2O (thousand metric tons)...................... 0.26 0.58 0.38 0.59
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.11--Net Present Value of Monetized Benefits From GHG and Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net present value million 2020$
---------------------------------------------------------------
Monetary benefits Discount rate Tiered standard Untiered standard
% ---------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG Reduction (using avg. social 5 247.8 563.0 358.0 574.9
costs at 5% discount rate) *...
GHG Reduction (using avg. social 3 1,047.3 2,375.8 1,511.8 2,426.0
costs at 3% discount rate) *...
GHG Reduction (using avg. social 2.5 1,718.8 3,896.9 2,480.4 3,979.1
costs at 2.5% discount rate) *.
GHG Reduction (using 95th 3 3,147.6 7,138.5 4,543.0 7,289.0
percentile social costs at 3%
discount rate) *...............
NOX Reduction **................ 3 111.4 221.8 153.2 230.8
7 38.8 77.5 53.4 80.7
SO2 Reduction **................ 3 171.6 355.4 239.6 370.5
7 60.4 126.0 84.6 131.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Estimates of SC-CO2 SC-CH4, and SC-N2O are calculated using a range of discount rates for use in regulatory
analyses. Three sets of values are based on the average social costs from the integrated assessment models, at
discount rates of 5 percent, 3 percent, and 2.5 percent. The fourth set, which represents the 95th percentile
of the social cost distributions calculated using a 3-percent discount rate, is included to represent higher-
than-expected impacts from climate change further out in the tails of the social cost distributions. The
social cost values are emission year specific. See section IV.D of the August 2021 MH SNOPR for more details.
** The benefits from NOX and SO2 were based on the low estimate monetized value.
A. Sensitivity Analysis Results--Alternate R-21 Exterior Wall
Insulation for Climate Zone 2 and 3 Combined With Alternate Size-Based
Tier Threshold for Tiered Standard
DOE also considered the same sensitivity analysis using the
alternate R-21 exterior wall insulation for climate zone 2 and 3, but
using the alternate size-based tier threshold (as discussed in section
V) instead of the manufacturer's retail list price tier threshold (as
discussed in section III.B).
The following tables present the results for the NIA and emissions
analyses results based on this sensitivity for the tiered standard
only. The LCC and PBP results for Tier 1 presented in section IV and
Tier 2/untiered standard presented in section VI would remain unchanged
for this sensitivity analysis. The NIA and emissions analysis results
for the untiered standard presented in section VI would remain
unchanged for this sensitivity analysis.
Table VI.12--Cumulative Full-Fuel-Cycle National Energy Savings of
Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime Under the
Alternate Size-Based Threshold
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered standard
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
(quads) (quads)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.......................... 0.123 0.542
Climate Zone 2.......................... 0.100 0.463
Climate Zone 3.......................... 0.239 0.408
-------------------------------
Total............................... 0.462 1.414
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.13--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year
Lifetime Under the Alternate Size-Based Threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered standard 7% discount rate 3% discount rate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section Single-section Multi-section
billion 2020$ billion 2020$ billion 2020$ billion 2020$
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1.................................. $0.15 $0.31 $0.40 $1.17
Climate Zone 2.................................. 0.13 0.20 0.35 0.89
[[Page 59059]]
Climate Zone 3.................................. 0.40 0.33 1.10 1.15
---------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................................... 0.68 0.84 1.85 3.22
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.14--Emissions Reductions Associated With Electricity Production
for Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime Under
the Alternate Size-Based Threshold
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered standard
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
Pollutant Single-section Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Site Emissions Reductions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)............... 19.5 53.8
Hg (metric tons)........................ 0.0292 0.096
NOX (thousand metric tons).............. 10.9 26.6
SO2 (thousand metric tons).............. 7.2 20.4
CH4 (thousand metric tons).............. 1.03 3.11
N2O (thousand metric tons).............. 0.21 0.57
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Upstream Emissions Reductions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)............... 2.0 5.1
Hg (metric tons)........................ 1.48E-04 4.45E-04
NOX (thousand metric tons).............. 25.4 64.8
SO2 (thousand metric tons).............. 0.21 0.47
CH4 (thousand metric tons).............. 127 354
N2O (thousand metric tons).............. 0.011 0.026
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Emissions Reductions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)............... 21.5 58.9
Hg (metric tons)........................ 0.029 0.0964
NOX (thousand metric tons).............. 36.3 91.4
SO2 (thousand metric tons).............. 7.4 20.9
CH4 (thousand metric tons).............. 128 357
N2O (thousand metric tons).............. 0.23 0.59
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VI.15--Net Present Value of Monetized Benefits From GHG and Emissions Reductions Under the Alternate Size-
Based Threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered standard
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net present value million
Discount rate 2020$
Monetary Benefits % -------------------------------
Single-section Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 5% discount rate) *... 5 208.5 574.9
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 3% discount rate) *... 3 881.3 2,426.0
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 2.5% discount rate) *. 2.5 1,446.6 3,979.1
GHG Reduction (using 95th percentile social costs at 3% discount 3 2,648.9 7,289.0
rate) *........................................................
NOX Reduction **................................................ 3 96.4 230.8
7 33.5 80.7
SO2 Reduction **................................................ 3 147.2 370.5
7 51.7 131.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Estimates of SC-CO2 SC-CH4, and SC-N2O are calculated using a range of discount rates for use in regulatory
analyses. Three sets of values are based on the average social costs from the integrated assessment models, at
discount rates of 5 percent, 3 percent, and 2.5 percent. The fourth set, which represents the 95th percentile
of the social cost distributions calculated using a 3-percent discount rate, is included to represent higher-
than-expected impacts from climate change further out in the tails of the social cost distributions. The
social cost values are emission year specific. See section IV.D of the August 2021 MH SNOPR for more details.
** The benefits from NOX and SO2 were based on the low estimate monetized value.
[[Page 59060]]
VII. Comparison of the August 2021 MH SNOPR and NODA Results
This section provides summary tables that compare the results from
the August 2021 MH SNOPR to all the scenarios presented in this NODA,
including the sensitivity analyses. As such, each table presents
results for the: (1) August 2021 MH SNOPR analysis; (2) NODA updated
SNOPR analysis (section IV); (3) NODA sensitivity--alternate size-based
tier threshold (section V); (4) NODA sensitivity--alternate R-21 wall
insulation for climate zone 2 and 3 for Tier 2 and untiered (section
VI); and (5) NODA sensitivity--alternate R-21 wall insulation for
climate zone 2 and 3 and alternate size-based tier threshold (section
VI.A).
In the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE estimated the SNOPR would result
in a decrease in shipments of about 53,329 homes (single section and
multi-section combined) for the tiered standard and about 71,290 homes
(single section and multi-section combined) for untiered standards
based on a price elasticity of demand of -0.48 for the 30 year analysis
period (2023-2052). 86 FR 47744, 47758. Table VII.1 presents the same
results for the NODA and sensitivity analyses.
Table VII.1--Change In Shipments for Tiered and Untiered Standards
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Reduction in shipments (total)
-------------------------------
Tiered Untiered
------------------------------------------------------------------------
August 2021 MH SNOPR.................... 53,329 71,290
NODA Updated SNOPR...................... 45,562 70,203
Sensitivity--Alternate Size-Based Tier 38,288 N/A
Threshold..............................
Sensitivity--Alternate R-21 Wall 36,648 53,185
Insulation.............................
Sensitivity--Alternate R-21 Wall 31,956 N/A
Insulation and Size-Based Tier
Threshold..............................
------------------------------------------------------------------------
The following tables present the NPV results for the August 2021 MH
SNOPR and all the scenarios presented in this NODA, including the
sensitivity analyses.
Table VII.2--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year
Lifetime at a 7% Discount Rate
[In billion 2020$] *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sensitivity--
Sensitivity-- Sensitivity-- alternate R-21
August 2021 MH NODA updated alternate size- alternate R-21 wall
Climate zone SNOPR SNOPR based tier wall insulation and
threshold insulation size- based
tier threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard (Single-section + Multi-section)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1............................... $0.69 $0.46 $0.46 $0.46 $0.46
2............................... 0.16 0.07 0.10 0.33 0.33
3............................... 0.78 0.51 0.57 0.70 0.73
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................... 1.62 1.04 1.13 1.50 1.52
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard (Single-section + Multi-section)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1............................... 0.70 0.46 N/A 0.46 N/A
2............................... 0.06 (0.10) N/A 0.30 N/A
3............................... 0.61 0.27 N/A 0.61 N/A
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total....................... 1.36 0.63 N/A 1.37 N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values in parenthesis.
Table VII.3--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime at a 3% Discount Rate
[In billion 2020$] *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sensitivity--
Sensitivity-- Sensitivity-- alternate R-21
Climate zone August 2021 MH NODA updated alternate size- alternate R-21 wall insulation
SNOPR SNOPR based tier wall insulation and size- based
threshold tier threshold
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard (Single-Section + Multi-Section)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1............................................................. $2.39 $1.60 $1.57 $1.60 $1.57
2............................................................. 1.17 0.74 0.79 1.26 1.24
[[Page 59061]]
3............................................................. 2.84 1.85 1.95 2.23 2.25
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total..................................................... 6.40 4.20 4.31 5.10 5.07
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard (Single-Section + Multi-Section)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1............................................................. 2.48 1.68 N/A 1.68 N/A
2............................................................. 1.02 0.44 N/A 1.26 N/A
3............................................................. 2.56 1.40 N/A 2.06 N/A
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total..................................................... 6.06 3.51 N/A 4.99 N/A
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Table VII.4--Net Present Value of Monetized Benefits From GHG and Emissions Reductions
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Net present
value million Sensitivity-- Sensitivity--
2020$ NODA updated alternate size- Sensitivity-- alternate R-21
Monetary benefits Discount rate % ------------------ SNOPR based tier alternate R-21 wall insulation
August 2021 MH threshold wall insulation and size- based
SNOPR tier threshold
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tiered Standard
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG......................................... 5 $1,075.4 $842.1 $809.2 $810.8 $783.4
3 4,525.0 3,555.4 3,416.5 3,423.1 3,307.2
NOX......................................... 3 446.0 348.1 339.5 333.1 327.2
7 157.2 121.5 118.5 116.3 114.2
SO2......................................... 3 734.7 549.5 536.2 527.0 517.7
7 259.3 194.3 189.6 186.4 183.1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Untiered Standard
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG......................................... 5 1,190.5 982.9 N/A 932.9 N/A
3 5,009.4 4,149.4 N/A 3,937.7 N/A
NOX......................................... 3 491.7 408.1 N/A 384.0 N/A
7 173.3 142.5 N/A 134.1 N/A
SO2......................................... 3 811.0 646.2 N/A 610.1 N/A
7 286.3 228.7 N/A 216.0 N/A
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VIII. Reopening of Comment Period
For the August 2021 MH SNOPR, comments were originally due no later
than October 25, 2021. In light of this NODA, DOE has determined that
it is appropriate to reopen the comment period to allow additional time
for interested parties to prepare and submit comments. Therefore, DOE
is reopening the comment period and will accept comments, data, and
information on the August 2021 MH SNOPR and this NODA on and before
November 26, 2021. Accordingly, DOE will consider any comments received
by this date to be timely submitted.
IX. Public Participation
While DOE is not requesting comments on specific portions of the
analysis, DOE is interested in receiving comments on all aspects of the
data and analysis presented in the NODA and supporting documentation
that can be found at: www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/standards.aspx?productid=64.
A. Submission of Comments
DOE will accept comments, data, and information regarding this
supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking before or after the public
meeting, but no later than the date provided in the DATES section at
the beginning of this proposed rule. Interested parties may submit
comments, data, and other information using any of the methods
described in the ADDRESSES section at the beginning of this document.
Submitting comments via www.regulations.gov. The
www.regulations.gov web page will require you to provide your name and
contact information. Your contact information will be viewable to DOE
Building Technologies staff only. Your contact information will not be
publicly viewable except for your first and last names, organization
name (if any), and submitter representative name (if any). If your
comment is not processed properly because of technical difficulties,
DOE will use this information to contact you. If DOE cannot read your
comment due to technical difficulties and cannot contact you for
clarification, DOE may not be able to consider your comment.
However, your contact information will be publicly viewable if you
include it in the comment itself or in any documents attached to your
comment. Any information that you do not want
[[Page 59062]]
to be publicly viewable should not be included in your comment, nor in
any document attached to your comment. Otherwise, persons viewing
comments will see only first and last names, organization names,
correspondence containing comments, and any documents submitted with
the comments.
Do not submit to www.regulations.gov information for which
disclosure is restricted by statute, such as trade secrets and
commercial or financial information (hereinafter referred to as
Confidential Business Information (``CBI'')). Comments submitted
through www.regulations.gov cannot be claimed as CBI. Comments received
through the website will waive any CBI claims for the information
submitted. For information on submitting CBI, see the Confidential
Business Information section.
DOE processes submissions made through www.regulations.gov before
posting. Normally, comments will be posted within a few days of being
submitted. However, if large volumes of comments are being processed
simultaneously, your comment may not be viewable for up to several
weeks. Please keep the comment tracking number that www.regulations.gov
provides after you have successfully uploaded your comment.
Submitting comments via email. Comments and documents submitted via
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your personal contact information to be publicly viewable, do not
include it in your comment or any accompanying documents. Instead,
provide your contact information in a cover letter. Include your first
and last names, email address, telephone number, and optional mailing
address. The cover letter will not be publicly viewable as long as it
does not include any comments.
Include contact information each time you submit comments, data,
documents, and other information to DOE. No telefacsimiles (``faxes'')
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Comments, data, and other information submitted to DOE
electronically should be provided in PDF (preferred), Microsoft Word or
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Campaign form letters. Please submit campaign form letters by the
originating organization in batches of between 50 to 500 form letters
per PDF or as one form letter with a list of supporters' names compiled
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time.
Confidential Business Information. Pursuant to 10 CFR 1004.11, any
person submitting information that he or she believes to be
confidential and exempt by law from public disclosure should submit via
email two well-marked copies: One copy of the document marked
``confidential'' including all the information believed to be
confidential, and one copy of the document marked ``non-confidential''
with the information believed to be confidential deleted. DOE will make
its own determination about the confidential status of the information
and treat it according to its determination.
It is DOE's policy that all comments may be included in the public
docket, without change and as received, including any personal
information provided in the comments (except information deemed to be
exempt from public disclosure).
X. Approval of the Office of the Secretary
The Secretary of Energy has approved publication of this
supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking; reopening of comment period
and notification of data availability.
Signing Authority
This document of the Department of Energy was signed on October 19,
2021, by Kelly Speakes-Backman, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary
and Acting Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable
Energy, pursuant to delegated authority from the Secretary of Energy.
That document with the original signature and date is maintained by
DOE. For administrative purposes only, and in compliance with
requirements of the Office of the Federal Register, the undersigned DOE
Federal Register Liaison Officer has been authorized to sign and submit
the document in electronic format for publication, as an official
document of the Department of Energy. This administrative process in no
way alters the legal effect of this document upon publication in the
Federal Register.
Signed in Washington, DC, on October 20, 2021.
Treena V. Garrett,
Federal Register Liaison Officer, U.S. Department of Energy.
[FR Doc. 2021-23188 Filed 10-25-21; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450-01-P