[Federal Register Volume 86, Number 204 (Tuesday, October 26, 2021)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 59042-59062]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2021-23188]


 ========================================================================
 Proposed Rules
                                                 Federal Register
 ________________________________________________________________________
 
 This section of the FEDERAL REGISTER contains notices to the public of 
 the proposed issuance of rules and regulations. The purpose of these 
 notices is to give interested persons an opportunity to participate in 
 the rule making prior to the adoption of the final rules.
 
 ========================================================================
 

  Federal Register / Vol. 86, No. 204 / Tuesday, October 26, 2021 / 
Proposed Rules  

[[Page 59042]]



DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

10 CFR Part 460

[EERE-2009-BT-BC-0021]
RIN 1904-AC11


Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for 
Manufactured Housing: Availability of Provisional Analysis

AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of 
Energy.

ACTION: Supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking; reopening of public 
comment period and notification of data availability (NODA).

-----------------------------------------------------------------------

SUMMARY: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is reopening the public 
comment period for the supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking 
(``SNOPR'') regarding proposals to amend energy conservation standards 
for manufactured housing. DOE published the SNOPR in the Federal 
Register on August 26, 2021. DOE is also publishing a notice of data 
availability (NODA) for the manufactured housing energy conservation 
standards rulemaking announcing the availability of updated analyses 
and results, and is giving interested parties an opportunity to comment 
on these analyses and submit additional data.

DATES: The comment period for the SNOPR which published on August 26, 
2021 (86 FR 47744), is reopened. DOE will accept comments, data, and 
information regarding the SNOPR and NODA received no later than 
November 26, 2021. See section IX, ``Public Participation,'' for 
details.

ADDRESSES: Any comments submitted must identify the NODA for Energy 
Conservation Standards for Manufactured Housing and provide docket 
number EERE-2009-BT-STD-0021 and/or regulatory information number (RIN) 
number 1904-AC11. Submit electronic comments in WordPerfect, Microsoft 
Word, PDF, or ASCII file format, and avoid the use of special 
characters or any form of encryption.
    Although DOE has routinely accepted public comment submissions 
through a variety of mechanisms, including postal mail and hand 
delivery/courier, the Department has found it necessary to make 
temporary modifications to the comment submission process in light of 
the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic. DOE is currently suspending receipt of 
public comments via postal mail and hand delivery/courier. If a 
commenter finds that this change poses an undue hardship, please 
contact Appliance Standards Program staff at (202) 586-1445 to discuss 
the need for alternative arrangements. Once the Covid-19 pandemic 
health emergency is resolved, DOE anticipates resuming all of its 
regular options for public comment submission, including postal mail 
and hand delivery/courier.
    No telefacsimilies (faxes) will be accepted. For detailed 
instructions on submitting comments and additional information on the 
rulemaking process, see section IX.A of this document.
    Docket: The docket for this activity, which includes Federal 
Register notices, comments, and other supporting documents/materials, 
is available for review at www.regulations.gov. All documents in the 
docket are listed in the www.regulations.gov index. However, not all 
documents listed in the index may be publicly available, such as 
information that is exempt from public disclosure.
    The docket web page can be found at www.regulations.gov/docket?D=EERE-2009-BT-BC-0021. The docket web page contains 
instructions on how to access all documents, including public comments, 
in the docket. See section IX.A for information on how to submit 
comments through www.regulations.gov.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Mr. John Cymbalsky, U.S. Department of 
Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Building 
Technologies Program (EE-2J), 1000 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, 
DC 20585; 202-287-1692; [email protected].
    Mr. Matthew Ring, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of the General 
Counsel (GC-33), 1000 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20585; 
202-586-2555; [email protected].

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Table of Contents

I. Background
II. Summary of the Analyses Performed by the Department of Energy
III. Summary of the Updated Inputs Since the August 2021 MH SNOPR
    A. 2021 CFPB Manufactured Housing Finance Report
    B. 2020 Manufactured Housing Survey
    C. AEO 2021
    D. 2020 Shipments
IV. Summary of Updated SNOPR Analysis Results
V. Sensitivity Analysis Results--Alternate Size-Based Tier Threshold 
For the Tiered Standard
VI. Sensitivity Analysis Results--Alternate R-21 Exterior Wall 
Insulation for Climate Zone 2 and 3 for Tier 2 and Untiered 
Standards
    A. Sensitivity Analysis Results--Alternate R-21 Exterior Wall 
Insulation for Climate Zone 2 and 3 Combined With Alternate Size-
Based Tier Threshold for Tiered Standard
VII. Comparison of the August 2021 MH SNOPR and NODA Results
VIII. Reopening of Comment Period
IX. Public Participation
    A. Submission of Comments
X. Approval of the Office of the Secretary

I. Background

    DOE published a supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking 
(``SNOPR'') proposing amended energy conservation standards for 
manufactured housing on August 26, 2021 (``August 2021 MH SNOPR''). 86 
FR 47744. In the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE's primary proposal was the 
``tiered'' approach, based on the 2021 IECC, wherein a subset of the 
energy conservation standards would be less stringent for certain 
manufactured homes in light of the cost-effectiveness considerations 
required by statute. Under the tiered proposal, two sets of standards 
would be established in proposed 10 CFR part 460, subpart B (i.e., Tier 
1 and Tier 2). Tier 1 would apply to manufactured homes with a 
manufacturer's retail list price of $55,000 or less, and also 
incorporate building thermal envelope measures based on certain thermal 
envelope components subject to the 2021 IECC, but would limit the 
incremental purchase price increase to an average of approximately 
$750. Tier 2 would apply to manufactured homes with a manufacturer's 
retail list price

[[Page 59043]]

above $55,000, and incorporate building thermal envelope measures based 
on certain thermal envelope components and specifications of the 2021 
IECC (i.e., the Tier 2 requirements would be the same as those under 
the proposed single, ``untiered'' set of standards). 86 FR 47744, 
47746.
    As noted in the August 2021 MH SNOPR, several data sources that 
served as inputs to the August 2021 MH SNOPR have since been updated to 
include more recent data that DOE did not incorporate in its analyses 
in the August 2021 MH SNOPR. 86 FR 47758. DOE sought comment on the use 
of these data sources for this rulemaking. Further, based on comments 
and consultations with the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban 
Development (HUD), DOE conducted a sensitivity analysis using an 
alternate tier threshold based on size (e.g., single-section vs. multi-
section homes) for the tiered proposal. DOE also performed a 
sensitivity analysis with alternate wall insulation requirements for 
climate zones 2 and 3 for both the tiered and the untiered standards. 
This notice of data availability (NODA) announces the availability of 
these updated inputs and corresponding analyses results and invites 
interested parties to submit comments on these analyses or provide any 
additional data. DOE will consider the updated inputs and corresponding 
analyses, as well comments on the inputs and analyses, as part of this 
rulemaking. DOE may further revise the analysis presented in this 
rulemaking based on any new or updated information or data it obtains. 
DOE encourages stakeholders to provide any additional data or 
information that may inform the analysis.

II. Summary of the Analyses Performed by the Department of Energy

    DOE conducted analyses of manufactured housing for both the August 
2021 MH SNOPR and this NODA in the following areas: (1) Life-cycle cost 
(``LCC'') and payback period (``PBP''), (2) national impacts, and (3) 
emissions impacts.
    DOE conducts LCC and PBP analyses to evaluate the economic impacts 
on individual consumers of energy conservation standards for 
manufactured housing. The LCC is the total consumer expense of a 
manufactured home over the life of that home, consisting of total 
installed cost plus total operating costs. To compute the total 
operating costs, DOE discounts future operating costs to the time of 
purchase and sums them over the lifetime of the product (or another 
specified period).\1\ The PBP is the estimated amount of time (in 
years) it takes consumers to recover the increased purchase cost of a 
more-efficient manufactured home through lower operating costs.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \1\ In the August 2021 SNOPR, DOE performed LCC analyses for a 
30-year period, based on the assumed lifetime of manufactured homes. 
86 FR 87744, 87791-87792. Additionally, based on comments received, 
to measure the LCC of the first homeowner of a manufactured home, 
DOE also performed LCC analyses for a 10-year period. Id. Analyses 
for both a 30-year and 10-year period are presented in this NODA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DOE conducts the national impact analysis (``NIA'') to assess the 
national energy savings (``NES'') and the national net present value 
(``NPV'') from a national perspective of total consumer costs and 
savings that would be expected to result from new or amended standards. 
DOE calculates the NES and NPV based on projections of annual product 
shipments, along with the annual energy consumption and total 
incremental cost data from the LCC analyses.
    Finally, DOE estimates environmental benefits in the form of 
reduced emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases associated 
with electricity production. DOE bases these estimates on a 30-year 
analysis period of manufactured home shipments and includes the 
reductions in emissions that accrue over the 30-year home lifetime. 
DOE's analysis estimates reductions in emissions of six pollutants 
associated with energy savings: Carbon dioxide (CO2), 
mercury (Hg), nitric oxide and nitrogen dioxide (NOX), 
sulfur dioxide (SO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous 
oxide (N2O). These reductions are referred to as ``site'' 
emissions reductions. Furthermore, DOE estimates reductions due to 
``upstream'' activities in the fuel production chain. These upstream 
activities comprise extraction, processing, and transporting fuels to 
the site of combustion. Together, site emissions reductions and 
upstream emissions reductions account for the FFC. Further, DOE 
calculates the value of the reduced emissions of CO2, 
CH4, and N2O (collectively, greenhouse gases or 
GHGs) using a range of values per metric ton of pollutant, consistent 
with the interim estimates issued in February 2021 under Executive 
Order 13990. Separately, DOE also estimates the monetary benefits from 
the reduced emissions of NOX and SO2.

III. Summary of the Updated Inputs Since the August 2021 MH SNOPR

    As noted in the August 2021 MH SNOPR, several data sources that 
served as inputs to the August 2021 MH SNOPR have since been updated to 
include more recent data that DOE did not incorporate in its analyses 
in the August 2021 MH SNOPR. 86 FR 47758. Table III.1 presents a 
summary of the updated inputs and the analyses that are impacted 
because of the updates to the data. DOE will consider the updated 
inputs and corresponding analyses, as well comments on the inputs and 
analyses, as part of this rulemaking. DOE may further revise the 
analysis presented in this rulemaking based on any new or updated 
information or data it obtains. DOE encourages stakeholders to provide 
any additional data or information that may inform the analysis.

  Table III.1--Updated Inputs to the Analysis Conducted for the Energy
                         Conservation Standards
------------------------------------------------------------------------
              SNOPR                      NODA          Analyses impacted
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2014 Consumer Finance Protection  2021 CFPB           Impacts the LCC,
 Bureau (CFPB) Manufactured        Manufactured        PBP and NIA
 Housing Finance Report.           Housing Finance     analyses.
                                   Report.
2019 Manufactured Housing Survey  2020 MHS..........  Determines the
 (MHS).                                                manufacturer's
                                                       retail list price
                                                       threshold for the
                                                       tiered proposal,
                                                       and affects
                                                       shipments for NIA
                                                       and emissions
                                                       analyses.
Annual Energy Outlook (AEO) 2020  AEO 2021..........  Impacts the LCC,
                                                       PBP, NIA and
                                                       emissions
                                                       analyses.
2019 Shipments..................  2020 Shipments....  Impacts the NIA
                                                       and emissions
                                                       analyses.
2015 Energy Star Shipments......  2020 Energy Star
                                   Shipments.
------------------------------------------------------------------------


[[Page 59044]]

    Sections III.A through III.D provide a summary of the input updates 
for this NODA. Sections IV through VI provide the LCC, PBP, national 
and emissions impacts results based on the input updates discussed in 
this section.

A. 2021 CFPB Manufactured Housing Finance Report

    The CFPB manufactured housing (``MH'') report analyzes the 
differences between mortgage loans used for site-built homes, and 
mortgage loans and chattel loans used for manufactured homes.\2\ For 
the August 2021 MH SNOPR, the proposed manufacturer's retail list price 
tier threshold for the tiered standard was developed using loan data 
derived from the 2014 CFPB report,\3\ and purchase price data derived 
from the MHS 2019 Public Use File (``PUF'') data.\4\ 86 FR 47744, 
47760. In this NODA, DOE maintained the same analysis as the August 
2021 MH SNOPR, but updated the CFPB MH report source to the latest 
version, which is the 2021 CFPB MH report. Section III.B provides the 
discussion regarding the updated purchase price data using MHS 2020 PUF 
data.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \2\ Manufactured Housing Finance: New Insights from the Home 
Mortgage Disclosure Act; https://www.consumerfinance.gov/data-research/research-reports/manufactured-housing-finance-new-insights-hmda/.
    \3\ CFPB report, 2014. https://files.consumerfinance.gov/f/201409_cfpb_report_manufactured-housing.pdf.
    \4\ Manufactured Housing Survey, Public Use File (PUF) 2019. 
https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/2019/econ/mhs/puf.html.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    To calculate the tier threshold for the tiered standard, DOE 
considered that low-income purchasers of manufactured homes would 
mostly likely use chattel loans, or similar loans that are high-
priced.\5\ The 2014 CFPB MH report explicitly stated that high-priced 
manufactured housing loans (including chattel loans) account for 
roughly 68 percent of total manufactured housing loans.\6\
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    \5\ The Consumer Finance Protection Bureau (CFPB) generally 
describes a higher-priced mortgage loan as a loan with an annual 
percentage rate, or APR, higher than a benchmark rate called the 
Average Prime Offer Rate. The requirements for this loan can be 
found in 12 CFR 1026.35.
    \6\ 2014 CFPB MH report; See page 6.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The 2021 CFPB MH report no longer reports this information. 
Instead, the 2021 CFPB MH report lists the proportion of loans that are 
chattel loans, as well as the proportion of chattel and non-chattel 
loans that are high-priced loans. The 2021 CFPB MH report states that 
42 percent of all manufactured home loans are chattel loans; 
accordingly, DOE determined that the remaining (58 percent) would be 
non-chattel loans. Of the chattel loans, the 2021 CFPB MH report states 
that 93.8 percent are high-priced loans. Similarly, of the non-chattel 
loans, the 2021 CFPB MH report states that 52.4 percent are high-priced 
loans. Using these data, DOE estimates that approximately 70 percent 
(42% * 93.8% + 58% * 52.4% = 70%) of all manufactured housing loans 
(i.e., chattel and non-chattel loans) were high-priced loans. 
Accordingly, for this NODA, DOE assumed that high-priced manufactured 
housing loans (including chattel loans) account for roughly 70 percent 
of total manufactured housing loans. This percentage is used to 
determine the updated manufacturer's retail list price tier threshold, 
which is discussed further in section III.B.
    Additionally, the 2021 CFPB MH report also lists the median chattel 
loan term as 23 years, which differs from the 15-year value that DOE 
assumed in the August 2021 MH SNOPR, which was based on suggestions 
from the MH working group. 86 FR 47744, 47793. For this NODA, DOE 
assumes a chattel loan term of 23 years, which is consistent with the 
2021 CFPB MH report. The impact of the longer loan on the analysis is 
that it increased LCC savings and decreased NPV at 3 percent discount 
rate.

B. 2020 Manufactured Housing Survey

    The MHS, which is sponsored by HUD and collected by the Census 
Bureau, provides data on shipments, prices and characteristics of new 
manufactured housing.\7\ Specifically, the MHS PUF data provide 
estimates of average sales prices for new manufactured homes sold or 
intended for sale by geographical region and size of home.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \7\ Manufactured Housing Survey; www.census.gov/programs-surveys/mhs.html.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As discussed in section III.A, for the August 2021 MH SNOPR, the 
purchase price data used to determine the manufacturer's retail list 
price tier threshold was derived from the MHS 2019 PUF data. 86 FR 
47744, 47760. In this section, DOE discusses the updates based on the 
latest MHS data, which is the MHS 2020 PUF data.\8\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \8\ Manufactured Housing Survey, Public Use File (PUF) 2020. 
https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/2020/econ/mhs/puf.html.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The MHS 2020 PUF data set provides data that relates Census region 
(the U.S. Census Bureau divides the country into four census regions) 
with sales price. Table III.2 summarizes the average, minimum and 
maximum sales prices based on census region and number of sections. In 
general, the data indicate that average sales price (specifically for 
single-section homes) does not differ significantly based on census 
region.

                                              Table III.2--MHS PUF 2020 Census Region and Sales Price Data
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                Single-section sales price  (2020$)              Dual-section sales price* (2020$)
                      Census region                      -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              Average         Minimum         Maximum         Average         Minimum         Maximum
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Northeast...............................................         $57,916         $35,600         $95,000        $107,951         $56,000        $233,000
Midwest.................................................          56,983          33,200          79,000         104,987          54,000         184,000
South...................................................          56,798          31,400          79,000         106,942          58,000         170,000
West....................................................          61,748          34,100         117,000         118,282          64,000         236,000
All.....................................................          57,233          31,400         117,000         108,583          54,000         236,000
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* The MHS PUF 2020 dataset provides multi-section home sales price separately for dual-section homes and triple-section (or larger) homes; however the
  triple-section (or larger) homes data is not differentiated by census region. Therefore, DOE only presents the dual-section data in this table, which
  should generally represent the sales price for multi-section homes (triple-section or larger represent 1 percent of the market in 2020 based on the
  MHS PUF 2020 dataset).

    Further, the MHS also summarizes average manufactured home sales 
price by state.\9\ Table III.3 presents the average sales prices in 
2020 per HUD climate zone based on the MHS data discussed previously 
and manufactured

[[Page 59045]]

home shipments published by Manufactured Housing Institute.\10\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \9\ Manufactured Housing Survey, Annual Tables of New 
Manufactured Homes: 2014-2020; https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/econ/mhs/annual-data.html.
    \10\ Manufactured Housing Institute, Annual Production and 
Shipment Data; https://www.manufacturedhousing.org/annual-production/ production/.

      Table III.3--MHS Average Sales Price Data by HUD Climate Zone
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          Single-section   Dual-section
            HUD climate zone               average sales   average sales
                                           price (2020$)   price (2020$)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.......................................         $57,124        $107,003
2.......................................          57,290         111,208
3.......................................          56,207         109,147
------------------------------------------------------------------------

    To determine the updated manufacturer's retail list price tier in a 
similar manner to what was considered in the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE 
assumed that price-sensitive, low-income purchasers rely on high-priced 
loans, given the inability to qualify for conventional loans. Based on 
the analysis in section III.A, the 70th percentile manufactured housing 
price gives an estimate for the upper bound for a manufactured home 
sales price that a price-sensitive low-income purchaser could afford. 
If people typically receive one primary loan, the percentage of high-
priced loans used should be roughly equivalent to the percentage of 
people receiving high-priced loans (e.g., 70 percent). DOE considered 
that low-income purchasers would mainly purchase single-section homes 
that are, on average, at a lower sales price than multi-section homes. 
Applying the 70th percentile for single-section manufactured homes 
using the MHS PUF 2020 data yields a sales price of approximately 
$63,000 (in real 2020$).
    Using the updated tier threshold at $63,000 (in real 2020$) and the 
MHS PUF 2020 data set, DOE determined the shipment breakdown based on 
tier and climate zone using the same methodology as presented in the 
August 2021 MH SNOPR. 86 FR 47744, 47809-47810. This included applying 
a ``substitution effect'' \11\ to 20 percent of homes within $1,000 of 
the price threshold ($63,001-$64,000) that would shift to less 
stringent standards, i.e., from Tier 2 to Tier 1. Id. Accordingly, 
Table III.4 presents the corresponding percentage of total manufactured 
homes placed/sold applicable to each tier based on climate zone and 
size using the updated inputs. Compared to the August 2021 MH SNOPR, a 
higher percentage of single-section manufactured home shipments are in 
Tier 1, i.e., Climate zone 1 or 2: 73.85 percent in this document vs. 
53.58 percent in the August 2021 MH SNOPR; Climate zone 3: 73.28 
percent in this document vs. 57.32 percent in the August 2021 MH 
SNOPR). Further, a portion of multi-section manufactured home shipments 
will also be in Tier 1.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \11\ DOE considered that a percentage of manufactured homes 
placed/sold would shift to less stringent standards, i.e., a 
percentage of homes from Tier 2 would shift to Tier 1. The inclusion 
of this shift in the market is to more accurately estimate energy 
savings (and other downstream results).

                     Table III.4--Shipment Breakdown Based on Tier and Proposed Climate Zone
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                        Climate zone 1 or 2               Climate zone 3
                                 ----------------------------------------------------------------    Combined
                                  Single-section   Multi-section  Single-section   Multi-section   climate zone
                                        (%)             (%)             (%)             (%)             (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 Standard.................              74               5              73               3              35
Tier 2 Standard.................              26              95              27              97              65
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.......................             100             100             100             100             100
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

C. AEO 2021

    The AEO presents long-term annual projections of energy supply, 
demand, and prices. The projections, focused on U.S. energy markets, 
are based on results from DOE Energy Information Administration's 
(``EIA'') National Energy Modeling System (``NEMS''). NEMS enables EIA 
to make projections under internally consistent sets of assumptions. 
DOE used AEO projections as inputs into several analyses for the August 
2021 MH SNOPR, which are discussed in more detail in this section.
    For the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE used inputs from AEO 2020 for 
establishing energy prices, escalation rates, inflation rates and 
housing starts. 86 FR 47744, 47794. In this NODA, DOE maintains the 
same source as the August 2021 MH SNOPR, but updated the AEO source to 
the latest version, which is AEO 2021.\12\ Further, DOE updated the 
electricity prices from the EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook.\13\ 
Specifically, DOE used electricity prices from 2020 quarter 2 and 
quarter 3 for summer electricity prices, and quarter 4 of 2020 and 
quarter 1 of 2021 for winter electricity prices. Table III.5 presents a 
comparison of the August 2021 MH SNOPR and NODA fuel prices and 
escalation rates.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \12\ Energy Information Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 
2021 with Projections to 2050. (2021).
    \13\ Energy Information Administration. Short-Term Energy 
Outlook: Real Prices Viewer. Available at: www.eia.gov/forecasts/steo/realprices/.

                         Table III.5--AEO 2021 Fuel Prices and Escalation Rates Updates
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    SNOPR                                   NODA
                                   -----------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                             Escalation                             Escalation
                                            Price             rate (%)             Price             rate (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Electricity:
    Summer........................  13.3 cents/kWh.......             2.3  13.3 cents/kWh.......             2.2
    Winter........................  12.9 cents/kWh                         13.2 cents/kWh
Natural gas.......................  10.3 $/MBtu..........             2.8  10.1 $/Mbtu..........             2.8
Liquid petroleum gas (LPG)........  21.6 $/Mbtu..........             4.1  17.3 $/Mbtu..........             3.7
Oil...............................  22.8 $/Mbtu..........             3.3  17.8 $/Mbtu..........             3.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


[[Page 59046]]

    To forecast the nominal price increase of manufactured homes, DOE 
used the inflation forecast rate built into the AEO 2021 at 2.28 
percent, compared to the August 2021 MH SNOPR inflation based on AEO 
2020 at 2.33 percent. To forecast shipments into the future, DOE used a 
5-year-average projection for growth in new housing starts from AEO 
2021 resulting in a 0.42 percent growth per year compared to the August 
2021 MH SNOPR projection for growth based on AEO 2020 at 0.3 percent 
growth per year.
    For the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE derived annual average site-to-
power plant factors based on the version of the NEMS that corresponds 
to AEO 2020. DOE calculated primary energy savings (power plant 
consumption) from site electricity savings by applying a factor to 
account for losses associated with the generation, transmission, and 
distribution of electricity. DOE computed the full-fuel cycle (``FFC'') 
by encompassing the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and 
transporting or distributing primary fuels, which we refer to as 
``upstream'' activities. 86 FR 47744, 47814. In this NODA, DOE updated 
the same inputs to AEO 2021. Table III.6 presents a comparison of the 
August 2021 MH SNOPR (based on AEO 2020) and NODA (based on AEO 2021) 
primary energy and FFC factors.

                             Table III.6--Primary Energy and FFC Factors, 2020-2050
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                       Dimensionless factor
          Factor type               Fuel type    ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                       2020            2030            2040            2050
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      SNOPR
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Primary.......................  Electricity.....           2.881           2.669           2.650           2.653
FFC...........................  Electricity.....           1.049           1.044           1.044           1.041
                                Natural Gas.....           1.109           1.114           1.112           1.107
                                LPG/Oil.........           1.174           1.172           1.176           1.180
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      NODA
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Primary.......................  Electricity.....           2.845           2.714           2.698           2.677
FFC...........................  Electricity.....           1.044           1.039           1.037           1.037
                                Natural Gas.....           1.101           1.098           1.098           1.099
                                LPG/Oil.........           1.169           1.171           1.179           1.185
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE also used the AEO 2020 to derive 
the power sector marginal emissions intensity factors for 
CO2, NOX, SO2, and Hg. 86 FR 47744, 
47814. For this NODA, DOE updated the emissions factors to AEO 2021.
    Finally, in the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE also proposed that under 
the tiered proposal the manufacturer's retail list price thresholds 
would be adjusted for inflation (for the applicable year of compliance) 
using the most recently available AEO GDP deflator time series, which 
at the time was AEO 2020. 86 FR 47744, 47761. As such, in Table III.7, 
DOE provides the updated AEO 2021 GDP deflator series.

                   Table III.7--AEO 2021 GDP Deflator
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                           GDP deflator
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020....................................................               1
2025....................................................          1.0756
2030....................................................          1.2203
2035....................................................          1.3702
2040....................................................          1.5208
2045....................................................          1.7038
2050....................................................          1.9527
------------------------------------------------------------------------

D. 2020 Shipments

    The Institute for Building Technology and Safety (``IBTS'') 
provides yearly shipments of manufactured homes, which is also 
published by the Manufactured Housing Institute (``MHI'').\14\ For the 
August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE considered the 2019 shipment data provided 
through MHI as the latest data available at the time of the analysis. 
86 FR 47744, 47798. For the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE only received 
historical shipment data of ENERGY STAR certified manufactured homes 
categorized by state from 2001 to 2015. Chapter 10 of the August 2021 
MH SNOPR Technical Support Document (``TSD''). Further, DOE did not 
account for ENERGY STAR homes for the no-standard shipments and 
therefore excluded any ENERGY STAR shipments to avoid overestimating 
energy savings. 86 FR 47744, 47808.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \14\ See Manufactured Home Shipments by Product Mix, 2019, 
Manufactured Housing Institute. www.manufacturedhousing.org/annual- 
production/.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In this NODA, DOE updated the August 2021 MH SNOPR analysis by 
considering the 2020 shipment data provided through MHI.\15\ Further, 
DOE also received updated 2020 ENERGY STAR shipment data, albeit not 
separated by size (i.e., single-section vs. multi-section). DOE notes 
that there are more ENERGY STAR shipments in 2020 than projected in the 
August 2021 MH SNOPR, which reduces the total number of shipments 
applicable for the no-standards case and standards case compared to the 
August 2021 MH SNOPR, in turn reducing the net present value (NPV) for 
both the untiered and tiered standards. Finally, as discussed in 
section III.C, DOE also updated the housing starts (shipment growth 
rate) to be consistent with AEO 2021. Table III.8 and Table III.9 
presents the single-section and multi-section manufactured home 
shipments considered in the August 2021 MH SNOPR and this NODA.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \15\ See Manufactured Home Shipments by Product Mix, 2020, 
Manufactured Housing Institute. www.manufacturedhousing.org/annual- 
production/.

[[Page 59047]]



                                                Table III.8--Single-Section Manufactured Homes Shipments
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 No-Standards case                Tiered standard                Untiered standard
                          Year                           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                               SNOPR           NODA            SNOPR           NODA            SNOPR           NODA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025....................................................          41,304          36,855          40,610          36,388          40,041          35,642
2030....................................................          41,923          37,632          41,225          37,155          40,640          36,395
2035....................................................          42,558          38,429          41,853          37,938          41,255          37,164
2040....................................................          43,198          39,243          42,481          38,744          41,876          37,950
2045....................................................          43,853          40,074          43,128          39,565          42,507          38,754
2050....................................................          44,514          40,927          43,768          40,403          43,153          39,579
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                                                 Table III.9--Multi-Section Manufactured Homes Shipments
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 No-Standards case                Tiered standard                Untiered standard
                          Year                           -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                               SNOPR           NODA            SNOPR           NODA            SNOPR           NODA
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2025....................................................          48,268          43,045          47,247          42,069          47,247          42,038
2030....................................................          48,999          43,952          47,961          42,965          47,961          42,924
2035....................................................          49,738          44,886          48,685          43,869          48,685          43,836
2040....................................................          50,489          45,836          49,421          44,800          49,421          44,768
2045....................................................          51,249          46,803          50,163          45,752          50,163          45,710
2050....................................................          52,019          47,798          50,919          46,727          50,919          46,681
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

IV. Summary of Updated SNOPR Analysis Results

    This section provides the results for the LCC and PBP, NIA and 
Emissions analyses based on the updates discussed in section III.

                                          Table IV.1--Average Manufactured Housing Purchase Price (and Percentage) Increases Under the Tiered Standard
                                                                                             [2020$]
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                              Tier 1                                                          Tier 2
                                                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                          Single-section                   Multi-section                  Single-section                   Multi-section
                                                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                         $               %               $               %               $               %               $               %
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..................................................            $627             1.2            $897             0.9          $2,567             4.8          $4,131             4.0
Climate Zone 2..................................................             627             1.2             897             0.9           4,806             9.0           6,149             5.9
Climate Zone 3..................................................             719             1.4             700             0.7           4,645             8.7           5,822             5.6
                                                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    National Average............................................             660             1.2             839             0.8           3,902             7.3           5,267             5.1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


   Table IV.2--Average Manufactured Housing Purchase Price (and Percentage) Increases Under Untiered Standard
                                                     [2020$]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                             Untiered
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          Single-section                   Multi-section
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                         $               %               $               %
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..................................          $2,567             4.8          $4,131             4.0
Climate Zone 2..................................           4,806             9.0           6,149             5.9
Climate Zone 3..................................           4,645             8.7           5,822             5.6
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
    National Average............................           3,902             7.3           5,267             5.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


     Table IV.3--Average Manufactured Home LCC Savings (30 Years) Under the Tiered Standard by Climate Zone
                                                    [2020$] *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              Tier 1                          Tier 2
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Single-section   Multi-section  Single-section   Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..................................          $1,042          $1,601          $2,427          $3,844

[[Page 59048]]

 
Climate Zone 2..................................           1,143           1,705           1,156           1,983
Climate Zone 3..................................           2,560           3,550           2,311           3,056
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
    National Average............................           1,606           2,205           2,045           3,023
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* No cities exhibit negative LCC savings in Tier 1. San Francisco is the only city that exhibits negative LCC
  savings in Tier 2.


     Table IV.4--Average Manufactured Home LCC Savings (30 Years) Under the Tiered Standard by Climate Zone
                                                    [2020$] *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              Tier 1                          Tier 2
      Climate zone                 City          ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Single-section   Multi-section  Single-section   Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.......................  Miami.................            $460            $850          $1,345          $2,336
1.......................  Houston...............             931           1,541           2,231           3,747
1.......................  Atlanta...............           1,532           2,481           3,258           5,468
1.......................  Charleston............           1,093           1,773           2,494           4,176
1.......................  Jackson...............           1,312           2,104           2,989           4,968
1.......................  Birmingham............           1,317           2,101           2,895           4,806
2.......................  Phoenix...............             616           1,026             665           1,763
2.......................  Memphis...............           1,493           2,364           1,491           2,743
2.......................  El Paso...............             990           1,547           1,106           2,185
2.......................  San Francisco.........             543             812           (387)            (68)
2.......................  Albuquerque...........           1,089           1,719           1,074           2,096
3.......................  Baltimore.............           2,422           3,678           2,002           3,164
3.......................  Salem.................           1,475           2,191             411             822
3.......................  Chicago...............           2,443           3,738           2,018           3,239
3.......................  Boise.................           1,682           2,562             890           1,558
3.......................  Burlington............           2,503           3,798           2,193           3,439
3.......................  Helena................           2,441           3,631           2,431           3,631
3.......................  Duluth................           3,917           5,794           5,013           7,256
3.......................  Fairbanks.............           5,851           8,516           9,307          13,065
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
                          National Average......           1,606           2,205           2,045           3,023
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values in parenthesis.


 Table IV.5--Average Manufactured Home LCC Savings (30 Years) Under the
                    Untiered Standard by Climate Zone
                                [2020$] *
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          Single-section   Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..........................          $2,154          $3,409
Climate Zone 2..........................             863           1,573
Climate Zone 3..........................           1,942           2,583
                                         -------------------------------
    National Average....................           1,733           2,585
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* San Francisco is the only city that exhibits negative LCC savings in
  the untiered standard results.


 Table IV.6--Average Manufactured Home LCC Savings (30 Years) Under the
                    Untiered Standard by Climate Zone
                                [2020$] *
------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Climate zone             City         Single-section   Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...................  Miami.............          $1,142          $1,998
1...................  Houston...........           1,971           3,318
1...................  Atlanta...........           2,931           4,928
1...................  Charleston........           2,217           3,719
1...................  Jackson...........           2,680           4,459
1...................  Birmingham........           2,592           4,308
2...................  Phoenix...........             403           1,368
2...................  Memphis...........           1,176           2,286

[[Page 59049]]

 
2...................  El Paso...........             817           1,766
2...................  San Francisco.....           (585)           (349)
2...................  Albuquerque.......             781           1,674
3...................  Baltimore.........           1,662           2,696
3...................  Salem.............             167             495
3...................  Chicago...........           1,667           2,751
3...................  Boise.............             614           1,183
3...................  Burlington........           1,822           2,929
3...................  Helena............           2,053           3,118
3...................  Duluth............           4,462           6,501
3...................  Fairbanks.........           8,478          11,933
                                         -------------------------------
                      National Average..           1,733           2,585
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values in parenthesis.


      Table IV.7--Average Manufactured Home Simple Payback Period Under the Tiered Standard by Climate Zone
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              Tier 1                          Tier 2
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Single-section   Multi-section  Single-section   Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..................................             4.7             4.5             8.5             8.5
Climate Zone 2..................................             4.5             4.4            13.3            12.5
Climate Zone 3..................................             2.9             2.1            11.5            11.3
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
    National Average............................             3.7             3.5            11.0            10.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


      Table IV.8--Average Manufactured Home Simple Payback Period Under the Tiered Standard by Climate Zone
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                              Tier 1                          Tier 2
      Climate zone                 City          ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Single-section   Multi-section  Single-section   Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.......................  Miami.................             7.4             6.5            10.8            10.5
1.......................  Houston...............             5.1             4.6             8.8             8.6
1.......................  Atlanta...............             3.7             3.3             7.3             7.1
1.......................  Charleston............             4.6             4.2             8.4             8.2
1.......................  Jackson...............             4.1             3.8             7.6             7.5
1.......................  Birmingham............             4.1             3.8             7.8             7.6
2.......................  Phoenix...............             6.5             6.0            14.5            12.9
2.......................  Memphis...............             3.7             3.5            12.6            11.4
2.......................  El Paso...............             4.9             4.6            13.3            12.1
2.......................  San Francisco.........             7.2             7.0            18.5            17.1
2.......................  Albuquerque...........             4.8             4.5            13.9            12.7
3.......................  Baltimore.............             2.9             2.0            11.5            10.7
3.......................  Salem.................             4.3             3.2            15.8            15.1
3.......................  Chicago...............             3.0             2.1            12.1            11.2
3.......................  Boise.................             3.9             2.8            14.4            13.6
3.......................  Burlington............             3.0             2.1            12.2            11.3
3.......................  Helena................             3.0             2.1            11.4            10.7
3.......................  Duluth................             2.0             1.4             8.4             7.8
3.......................  Fairbanks.............             1.4             1.0             5.7             5.3
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
                          National Average......             3.7             3.5            11.0            10.6
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


  Table IV.9--Average Manufactured Home Simple Payback Period Under the
                    Untiered Standard by Climate Zone
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          Single-section   Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..........................             8.5             8.5
Climate Zone 2..........................            13.3            12.5
Climate Zone 3..........................            11.5            11.3
                                         -------------------------------

[[Page 59050]]

 
    National Average....................            11.0            10.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------


 Table IV.10--Average Manufactured Home Simple Payback Period Under the
                    Untiered Standard by Climate Zone
------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Climate zone             City         Single-section   Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1                     Miami.............            10.8            10.5
1                     Houston...........             8.8             8.6
1                     Atlanta...........             7.3             7.1
1                     Charleston........             8.4             8.2
1                     Jackson...........             7.6             7.5
1                     Birmingham........             7.8             7.6
2                     Phoenix...........            14.5            12.9
2                     Memphis...........            12.6            11.4
2                     El Paso...........            13.3            12.1
2                     San Francisco.....            18.5            17.1
2                     Albuquerque.......            13.9            12.7
3                     Baltimore.........            11.5            10.7
3                     Salem.............            15.8            15.1
3                     Chicago...........            12.1            11.2
3                     Boise.............            14.4            13.6
3                     Burlington........            12.2            11.3
3                     Helena............            11.4            10.7
3                     Duluth............             8.4             7.8
3                     Fairbanks.........             5.7             5.3
                                         -------------------------------
                      National Average..            11.0            10.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------


          Table IV.11--National Average Per-Home Cost Savings *
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          Single-section   Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             Tier 1 Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year                   $1,606          $2,205
 Lifetime)..............................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year                     $726          $1,015
 Lifetime)..............................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$.....            $176            $238
Simple Payback Period...................             3.7             3.5
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             Tier 2 Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year                   $2,045          $3,023
 Lifetime)..............................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year                      $78            $235
 Lifetime)..............................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$.....            $354            $496
Simple Payback Period...................            11.0            10.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year                   $1,733          $2,585
 Lifetime)..............................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year                    ($57)             $50
 Lifetime)..............................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$.....            $354            $496
Simple Payback Period...................            11.0            10.6
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values in parenthesis.


   Table IV.12--Cumulative Full-Fuel-Cycle National Energy Savings of
     Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 with a 30-Year Lifetime
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          Single-section
                                            quadrillion    Multi-section
                                            Btu (quads)       (quads)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             Tiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..........................           0.163           0.526
Climate Zone 2..........................           0.139           0.475
Climate Zone 3..........................           0.274           0.435
                                         -------------------------------

[[Page 59051]]

 
    Total...............................           0.576           1.436
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..........................           0.276           0.542
Climate Zone 2..........................           0.249           0.489
Climate Zone 3..........................           0.370           0.439
                                         -------------------------------
    Total...............................           0.894           1.470
------------------------------------------------------------------------


  Table IV.13--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured
 Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime at a 7% Discount Rate
                                    *
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          Single-section   Multi-section
                                           billion 2020$   billion 2020$
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             Tiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..........................           $0.15           $0.31
Climate Zone 2..........................            0.08          (0.01)
Climate Zone 3..........................            0.33            0.18
                                         -------------------------------
    Total...............................            0.56            0.48
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..........................           $0.16           $0.30
Climate Zone 2..........................          (0.06)          (0.04)
Climate Zone 3..........................            0.11            0.16
                                         -------------------------------
    Total...............................            0.21            0.42
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values in parenthesis.


  Table IV.14--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured
 Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime at a 3% Discount Rate
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          Single-section   Multi-section
                                           billion 2020$   billion 2020$
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             Tiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..........................           $0.45           $1.15
Climate Zone 2..........................            0.29            0.45
Climate Zone 3..........................            0.99            0.86
                                         -------------------------------
    Total...............................            1.73            2.47
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..........................           $0.57           $1.11
Climate Zone 2..........................            0.09            0.35
Climate Zone 3..........................            0.62            0.78
                                         -------------------------------
    Total...............................            1.28            2.23
------------------------------------------------------------------------


Table IV.15--Emissions Reductions Associated With Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          Tiered standard               Untiered standards
                    Pollutant                    ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Single-section   Multi-section  Single-section   Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            Site Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons).......................            23.7            55.1            35.7            56.2
Hg (metric tons)................................           0.037           0.097           0.058          0.0995
NOX (thousand metric tons)......................            12.9            27.5            18.8            28.0

[[Page 59052]]

 
SO2 (thousand metric tons)......................             8.8            20.9            13.4            21.3
CH4 (thousand metric tons)......................            1.28            3.16            1.97            3.24
N2O (thousand metric tons)......................            0.26            0.58           0.383           0.591
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          Upstream Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons).......................             2.4             5.2            3.52             5.3
Hg (metric tons)................................        1.84E-04        4.52E-04        2.84E-04        4.63E-04
NOX (thousand metric tons)......................            30.4            66.6            44.8              68
SO2 (thousand metric tons)......................            0.24            0.48           0.343            0.49
CH4 (thousand metric tons)......................             155             362             234             370
N2O (thousand metric tons)......................           0.013           0.027           0.019           0.028
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           Total Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons).......................            26.2            60.3            39.3            61.5
Hg (metric tons)................................           0.037           0.097           0.059             0.1
NOX (thousand metric tons)......................              43            94.1              64              96
SO2 (thousand metric tons)......................             9.1            21.4            13.7            21.8
CH4 (thousand metric tons)......................             156             365             236             373
N2O (thousand metric tons)......................            0.27            0.61            0.40            0.62
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


             Table IV.16--Net Present Value of Monetized Benefits From GHG and Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                  Net present value million 2020$
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                   Discount rate          Tiered standard                Untiered Standard
                                         %       ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Single-section   Multi-section  Single-section   Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG Reduction (using avg. social               5           254.2           587.8           382.2           600.7
 costs at 5% discount rate) *...
GHG Reduction (using avg. social               3         1,074.3         2,481.0         1,614.1         2,535.2
 costs at 3% discount rate) *...
GHG Reduction (using avg. social             2.5         1,763.2         4,069.6         2,648.5         4,158.4
 costs at 2.5% discount rate) *.
GHG Reduction (using 95th                      3         3,229.0         7,454.7         4,850.7         7,617.5
 percentile social costs at 3%
 discount rate) *...............
NOX Reduction **................               3           114.5           233.6           165.0           243.1
                                               7            39.9            81.6            57.5            84.9
SO2 Reduction **................               3           176.2           373.2           257.2           389.0
                                               7            62.0           132.3            90.8           137.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Estimates of SC-CO2 SC-CH4, and SC-N2O are calculated using a range of discount rates for use in regulatory
  analyses. Three sets of values are based on the average social costs from the integrated assessment models, at
  discount rates of 5 percent, 3 percent, and 2.5 percent. The fourth set, which represents the 95th percentile
  of the social cost distributions. calculated using a 3-percent discount rate, is included to represent higher-
  than-expected impacts from climate change further out in the tails of the social cost distributions. The
  social cost values are emission year specific. See section IV.D of the August 2021 MH SNOPR for more details.
** The benefits from NOX and SO2 were based on the low estimate monetized value.

V. Sensitivity Analysis Results--Alternate Size-Based Tier Threshold 
for the Tiered Standard

    For this NODA, DOE also considered a sensitivity analysis where the 
tier threshold for the tiered standard would be based on the 
manufactured home size instead of the manufacturer's retail list price. 
Specifically, the Tier 1 standard would apply to all single-section 
homes, and the Tier 2 standard would apply to all multi-section homes. 
Table V.1 presents the updated shipments breakdown for this sensitivity 
analysis using the MHS 2020 PUF data set.

              Table V.1--Shipment Breakdown Based on Tier Under the Alternate Size-Based Threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                 All climate zones
                                                                 -----------------------------------------------
                                                                  Single-section   Multi-section
                                                                        (%)             (%)          Total (%)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tier 1 Standard.................................................             100               0              45
Tier 2 Standard.................................................               0             100              55
                                                                 -----------------------------------------------

[[Page 59053]]

 
    Total.......................................................             100             100             100
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The following tables present the results for the NIA and emissions 
analyses results based on the alternate size-based tier threshold for 
the tiered standard only. DOE notes that the LCC and PBP analyses 
results presented in section IV for both the tiered and untiered 
standards would not change for this sensitivity analysis. This is 
because the LCC and PBP analysis evaluates the economic impacts on 
individual consumers of energy conservation standards for manufactured 
housing, not the entire nation. Further, the NIA and emissions results 
presented in section IV for the untiered standard would also not change 
for this sensitivity analysis because the tier threshold does not 
apply.

    Table V.2--Cumulative Full-Fuel-Cycle National Energy Savings of
Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime Under the
                     Alternate Size-Based Threshold
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Tiered standard
                                         -------------------------------
                                          Single-section   Multi-section
                                              (quads)         (quads)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..........................           0.123           0.542
Climate Zone 2..........................           0.100           0.489
Climate Zone 3..........................           0.239           0.439
                                         -------------------------------
    Total...............................           0.462           1.470
------------------------------------------------------------------------


   Table V.3--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year
                                Lifetime Under the Alternate Size-Based Threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                          Tiered Standard
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                         7% discount rate                3% discount rate
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                   Multi-section                   Multi-section
                                                  Single-section     * billion    Single-section     * billion
                                                   billion 2020$       2020$       billion 2020$       2020$
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..................................           $0.15           $0.31           $0.40           $1.17
Climate Zone 2..................................            0.13          (0.03)            0.35            0.44
Climate Zone 3..................................            0.40            0.17            1.10            0.85
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.......................................            0.68            0.45            1.85            2.46
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values in parenthesis.


    Table V.4--Emissions Reductions Associated for Manufactured Homes
  Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime Under the Alternate Size-
                             Based Threshold
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             Tiered Standard
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Pollutant                 Single-section   Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        Site Emissions Reductions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)...............            19.5            56.2
Hg (metric tons)........................          0.0292          0.0995
NOX (thousand metric tons)..............            10.9            28.0
SO2 (thousand metric tons)..............             7.2            21.3
CH4 (thousand metric tons)..............            1.03            3.24
N2O (thousand metric tons)..............            0.21            0.59
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      Upstream Emissions Reductions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)...............             2.0             5.3
Hg (metric tons)........................        1.48E-04        4.63E-04
NOX (thousand metric tons)..............            25.4            68.0
SO2 (thousand metric tons)..............            0.21            0.49
CH4 (thousand metric tons)..............             127             370
N2O (thousand metric tons)..............           0.011           0.028
------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 59054]]

 
                       Total Emissions Reductions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)...............            21.5            61.5
Hg (metric tons)........................           0.029           0.100
NOX (thousand metric tons)..............            36.3              96
SO2 (thousand metric tons)..............             7.4            21.8
CH4 (thousand metric tons)..............             128             373
N2O (thousand metric tons)..............            0.23            0.62
------------------------------------------------------------------------


 Table V.5--Net Present Value of Monetized Benefits From GHG and Emissions Reductions Under the Alternate Size-
                                                 Based Threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                 Tiered standard
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                     Net present value million
                                                                   Discount rate               2020$
                        Monetary benefits                                %       -------------------------------
                                                                                  Single-section   Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 5% discount rate) *...               5           208.5           600.7
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 3% discount rate) *...               3           881.3         2,535.2
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 2.5% discount rate) *.             2.5         1,446.6         4,158.4
GHG Reduction (using 95th percentile social costs at 3% discount               3         2,648.9         7,617.5
 rate) *........................................................
NOX Reduction **................................................               3            96.4           243.1
                                                                               7            33.5            84.9
SO2 Reduction **................................................               3           147.2           389.0
                                                                               7            51.7           137.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Estimates of SC-CO2 SC-CH4, and SC-N2O are calculated using a range of discount rates for use in regulatory
  analyses. Three sets of values are based on the average social costs from the integrated assessment models, at
  discount rates of 5 percent, 3 percent, and 2.5 percent. The fourth set, which represents the 95th percentile
  of the social cost distributions calculated using a 3-percent discount rate, is included to represent higher-
  than-expected impacts from climate change further out in the tails of the social cost distributions. The
  social cost values are emission year specific. See section IV.D of the August 2021 MH SNOPR for more details.
** The benefits from NOX and SO2 were based on the low estimate monetized value.

VI. Sensitivity Analysis Results--Alternate R-21 Exterior Wall 
Insulation for Climate Zone 2 and 3 for Tier 2 and Untiered Standards

    For this NODA, DOE also conducted a sensitivity analysis using less 
stringent measures for exterior wall insulation for the Tier 2 and 
untiered standards. Specifically, the component requirements proposed 
in the August 2021 MH SNOPR for the prescriptive path for Climate Zone 
2 and 3 require that exterior walls be sealed using R-20+5 exterior 
wall insulation. DOE proposed this requirement based on the 2021 IECC 
without modification. The ``+5'' involves using ``continuous 
insulation,'' which is insulation that runs continuously over 
structural members and is free of significant thermal bridging. DOE's 
proposal requires continuous insulation only for the exterior wall 
insulation component. 86 FR 47744, 47772.
    Accordingly, in this NODA, DOE considered a sensitivity analysis 
wherein DOE analyzed a less stringent exterior wall insulation 
requirement for the Tier 2/untiered standard instead. In this 
sensitivity analysis, DOE considered an R-21 exterior wall insulation 
as opposed to the proposed R-20+5, which would require continuous 
insulation. At R-20+5, the incremental cost relative to the baseline is 
$2,500, versus $850 for R-21. For this analysis, DOE maintained the 
NODA-updated manufacturer tier threshold (at $60,000 in real 2020$) for 
the tiered standard.
    The following tables present the results based on the alternate 
wall insulation for climate zone 2 and 3 for the Tier 2 and untiered 
standards only. DOE notes that the Tier 1 results presented in section 
IV would not change for this sensitivity analysis.

  Table VI.1--Average Manufactured Housing Purchase Price (and Percentage) Increases Under Tier 2 of the Tiered
                                       Standard and the Untiered Standard
                                                     [2020$]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                          Tier 2/untiered
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          Single-section                   Multi-section
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                         $               %               $               %
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..................................          $2,567             4.8          $4,131             4.0
Climate Zone 2..................................           3,082             5.8           4,438             4.3
Climate Zone 3..................................           2,921             5.5           4,111             4.0
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 59055]]

 
    National Average............................           2,830             5.3           4,222             4.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                  Table VI.2--Average Manufactured Home LCC Savings (30 Years) by Climate Zone
                                                    [2020$] *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          Tier 2 standard                Untiered standard
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Single-section   Multi-section  Single-section   Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..................................          $2,427          $3,844          $2,154          $3,409
Climate Zone 2..................................           2,401           3,238           2,105           2,826
Climate Zone 3..................................           3,333           4,101           2,977           3,639
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
    National Average............................           2,740           3,727           2,432           3,291
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* No cities exhibit negative LCC savings in Tier 1 or Tier 2.


                  Table VI.3--Average Manufactured Home LCC Savings (30 Years) by Climate Zone
                                                     [2020$]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          Tier 2 standard                Untiered standard
      Climate zone                 City          ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Single-section   Multi-section  Single-section   Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.......................  Miami.................          $1,345          $2,336          $1,142          $1,998
1.......................  Houston...............           2,231           3,747           1,971           3,318
1.......................  Atlanta...............           3,258           5,468           2,931           4,928
1.......................  Charleston............           2,494           4,176           2,217           3,719
1.......................  Jackson...............           2,989           4,968           2,680           4,459
1.......................  Birmingham............           2,895           4,806           2,592           4,308
2.......................  Phoenix...............           1,987           3,076           1,718           2,674
2.......................  Memphis...............           2,718           3,967           2,402           3,508
2.......................  El Paso...............           2,353           3,431           2,061           3,008
2.......................  San Francisco.........             951           1,274             745             985
2.......................  Albuquerque...........           2,306           3,325           2,012           2,902
3.......................  Baltimore.............           3,053           4,211           2,723           3,752
3.......................  Salem.................           1,582           1,992           1,341           1,668
3.......................  Chicago...............           3,079           4,291           2,738           3,814
3.......................  Boise.................           2,001           2,669           1,732           2,301
3.......................  Burlington............           3,230           4,468           2,872           3,970
3.......................  Helena................           3,381           4,583           3,021           4,087
3.......................  Duluth................           5,778           8,015           5,258           7,290
3.......................  Fairbanks.............           9,600          13,363           8,831          12,291
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
                          National Average......           2,740           3,727           2,432           3,291
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


 Table VI.4--Average Manufactured Home Simple Payback Period by Climate
                                  Zone
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                             Tier 2/untiered standard
                                         -------------------------------
                                          Single-section   Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..........................             8.5             8.5
Climate Zone 2..........................             9.3             9.6
Climate Zone 3..........................             8.1             8.6
                                         -------------------------------
    National Average....................             8.5             8.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------


[[Page 59056]]


 Table VI.5--Average Manufactured Home Simple Payback Period by Climate
                                  Zone
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                             Tier 2 standard/untiered
                                                     standard
    Climate zone             City        -------------------------------
                                          Single-section   Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
1                     Miami.............            10.8            10.5
1                     Houston...........             8.8             8.6
1                     Atlanta...........             7.3             7.1
1                     Charleston........             8.4             8.2
1                     Jackson...........             7.6             7.5
1                     Birmingham........             7.8             7.6
2                     Phoenix...........            10.1             9.8
2                     Memphis...........             8.8             8.7
2                     El Paso...........             9.3             9.3
2                     San Francisco.....            13.0            13.2
2                     Albuquerque.......             9.7             9.7
3                     Baltimore.........             8.1             8.2
3                     Salem.............            11.2            11.6
3                     Chicago...........             8.5             8.5
3                     Boise.............            10.3            10.5
3                     Burlington........             8.6             8.7
3                     Helena............             8.1             8.2
3                     Duluth............             5.9             5.9
3                     Fairbanks.........             4.0             4.1
                                         -------------------------------
                      National Average..             8.5             8.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------


           Table VI.6--National Average Per-Home Cost Savings
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          Single-section   Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             Tier 2 Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year                   $2,740          $3,727
 Lifetime)..............................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year                     $632            $788
 Lifetime)..............................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$.....            $331            $475
Simple Payback Period...................             8.5             8.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Lifecycle Cost Savings (30-Year                   $2,432          $3,291
 Lifetime)..............................
Lifecycle Cost Savings (10-Year                     $518            $622
 Lifetime)..............................
Annual Energy Cost Savings in 2020$.....            $331            $475
Simple Payback Period...................             8.5             8.9
------------------------------------------------------------------------


    Table VI.7--Cumulative Full-Fuel-Cycle National Energy Savings of
     Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 with a 30-Year Lifetime
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          Single-section   Multi-section
                                              (quads)         (quads)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             Tiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..........................           0.163           0.526
Climate Zone 2..........................           0.134           0.451
Climate Zone 3..........................           0.265           0.405
                                         -------------------------------
    Total...............................           0.562           1.382
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..........................           0.276           0.542
Climate Zone 2..........................           0.231           0.463
Climate Zone 3..........................           0.336           0.408
                                         -------------------------------
    Total...............................           0.843           1.414
------------------------------------------------------------------------


[[Page 59057]]


   Table VI.8--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured
 Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime at a 7% Discount Rate
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          Single-section   Multi-section
                                           billion 2020$   billion 2020$
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             Tiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..........................           $0.15           $0.31
Climate Zone 2..........................            0.12            0.21
Climate Zone 3..........................            0.37            0.33
                                         -------------------------------
    Total...............................            0.65            0.85
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..........................            0.16            0.30
Climate Zone 2..........................            0.10            0.20
Climate Zone 3..........................            0.29            0.32
                                         -------------------------------
    Total...............................            0.55            0.82
------------------------------------------------------------------------


   Table VI.9--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured
 Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime at a 3% Discount Rate
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          Single-section   Multi-section
                                           billion 2020$   billion 2020$
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             Tiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..........................           $0.45           $1.15
Climate Zone 2..........................            0.37            0.89
Climate Zone 3..........................            1.07            1.16
                                         -------------------------------
    Total...............................            1.90            3.20
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                            Untiered Standard
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..........................            0.57            1.11
Climate Zone 2..........................            0.43            0.83
Climate Zone 3..........................            0.96            1.10
                                         -------------------------------
    Total...............................            1.96            3.03
------------------------------------------------------------------------


      Table VI.10--Emissions Reductions for Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          Tiered standard                Untiered standard
                    Pollutant                    ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Single-section   Multi-section  Single-section   Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            Site Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons).......................            23.1            52.7            33.5            53.8
Hg (metric tons)................................           0.036           0.094           0.055           0.096
NOX (thousand metric tons)......................            12.6            26.1            17.4            26.6
SO2 (thousand metric tons)......................             8.6            20.0            12.5            20.4
CH4 (thousand metric tons)......................            1.25            3.04            1.86            3.11
N2O (thousand metric tons)......................            0.25            0.55            0.36            0.57
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          Upstream Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons).......................            2.35             5.0             3.3             5.1
Hg (metric tons)................................        1.79E-04        4.35E-04        2.67E-04        4.45E-04
NOX (thousand metric tons)......................            29.6            63.5            41.7            64.8
SO2 (thousand metric tons)......................            0.24            0.46           0.318            0.47
CH4 (thousand metric tons)......................             151             347             219             354
N2O (thousand metric tons)......................           0.013           0.026           0.017           0.026
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           Total Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons).......................            25.5            57.7            36.8            58.9
Hg (metric tons)................................           0.036           0.094           0.056           0.096
NOX (thousand metric tons)......................              42              90              59              91
SO2 (thousand metric tons)......................             8.9            20.4            12.9            20.9
CH4 (thousand metric tons)......................             152             350             221             357

[[Page 59058]]

 
N2O (thousand metric tons)......................            0.26            0.58            0.38            0.59
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


             Table VI.11--Net Present Value of Monetized Benefits From GHG and Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                  Net present value million 2020$
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
        Monetary benefits          Discount rate          Tiered standard                Untiered standard
                                         %       ---------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Single-section   Multi-section  Single-section   Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG Reduction (using avg. social               5           247.8           563.0           358.0           574.9
 costs at 5% discount rate) *...
GHG Reduction (using avg. social               3         1,047.3         2,375.8         1,511.8         2,426.0
 costs at 3% discount rate) *...
GHG Reduction (using avg. social             2.5         1,718.8         3,896.9         2,480.4         3,979.1
 costs at 2.5% discount rate) *.
GHG Reduction (using 95th                      3         3,147.6         7,138.5         4,543.0         7,289.0
 percentile social costs at 3%
 discount rate) *...............
NOX Reduction **................               3           111.4           221.8           153.2           230.8
                                               7            38.8            77.5            53.4            80.7
SO2 Reduction **................               3           171.6           355.4           239.6           370.5
                                               7            60.4           126.0            84.6           131.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Estimates of SC-CO2 SC-CH4, and SC-N2O are calculated using a range of discount rates for use in regulatory
  analyses. Three sets of values are based on the average social costs from the integrated assessment models, at
  discount rates of 5 percent, 3 percent, and 2.5 percent. The fourth set, which represents the 95th percentile
  of the social cost distributions calculated using a 3-percent discount rate, is included to represent higher-
  than-expected impacts from climate change further out in the tails of the social cost distributions. The
  social cost values are emission year specific. See section IV.D of the August 2021 MH SNOPR for more details.
** The benefits from NOX and SO2 were based on the low estimate monetized value.

A. Sensitivity Analysis Results--Alternate R-21 Exterior Wall 
Insulation for Climate Zone 2 and 3 Combined With Alternate Size-Based 
Tier Threshold for Tiered Standard

    DOE also considered the same sensitivity analysis using the 
alternate R-21 exterior wall insulation for climate zone 2 and 3, but 
using the alternate size-based tier threshold (as discussed in section 
V) instead of the manufacturer's retail list price tier threshold (as 
discussed in section III.B).
    The following tables present the results for the NIA and emissions 
analyses results based on this sensitivity for the tiered standard 
only. The LCC and PBP results for Tier 1 presented in section IV and 
Tier 2/untiered standard presented in section VI would remain unchanged 
for this sensitivity analysis. The NIA and emissions analysis results 
for the untiered standard presented in section VI would remain 
unchanged for this sensitivity analysis.

   Table VI.12--Cumulative Full-Fuel-Cycle National Energy Savings of
Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime Under the
                     Alternate Size-Based Threshold
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             Tiered standard
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          Single-section   Multi-section
                                              (quads)         (quads)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..........................           0.123           0.542
Climate Zone 2..........................           0.100           0.463
Climate Zone 3..........................           0.239           0.408
                                         -------------------------------
    Total...............................           0.462           1.414
------------------------------------------------------------------------


  Table VI.13--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year
                                Lifetime Under the Alternate Size-Based Threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 Tiered standard                         7% discount rate                3% discount rate
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                  Single-section   Multi-section  Single-section   Multi-section
                                                   billion 2020$   billion 2020$   billion 2020$   billion 2020$
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Climate Zone 1..................................           $0.15           $0.31           $0.40           $1.17
Climate Zone 2..................................            0.13            0.20            0.35            0.89

[[Page 59059]]

 
Climate Zone 3..................................            0.40            0.33            1.10            1.15
                                                 ---------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.......................................            0.68            0.84            1.85            3.22
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Table VI.14--Emissions Reductions Associated With Electricity Production
for Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime Under
                   the Alternate Size-Based Threshold
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             Tiered standard
-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Pollutant                 Single-section   Multi-section
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                        Site Emissions Reductions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)...............            19.5            53.8
Hg (metric tons)........................          0.0292           0.096
NOX (thousand metric tons)..............            10.9            26.6
SO2 (thousand metric tons)..............             7.2            20.4
CH4 (thousand metric tons)..............            1.03            3.11
N2O (thousand metric tons)..............            0.21            0.57
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      Upstream Emissions Reductions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)...............             2.0             5.1
Hg (metric tons)........................        1.48E-04        4.45E-04
NOX (thousand metric tons)..............            25.4            64.8
SO2 (thousand metric tons)..............            0.21            0.47
CH4 (thousand metric tons)..............             127             354
N2O (thousand metric tons)..............           0.011           0.026
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                       Total Emissions Reductions
------------------------------------------------------------------------
CO2 (million metric tons)...............            21.5            58.9
Hg (metric tons)........................           0.029          0.0964
NOX (thousand metric tons)..............            36.3            91.4
SO2 (thousand metric tons)..............             7.4            20.9
CH4 (thousand metric tons)..............             128             357
N2O (thousand metric tons)..............            0.23            0.59
------------------------------------------------------------------------


Table VI.15--Net Present Value of Monetized Benefits From GHG and Emissions Reductions Under the Alternate Size-
                                                 Based Threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                 Tiered standard
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                     Net present value million
                                                                   Discount rate               2020$
                        Monetary Benefits                                %       -------------------------------
                                                                                  Single-section   Multi-section
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 5% discount rate) *...               5           208.5           574.9
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 3% discount rate) *...               3           881.3         2,426.0
GHG Reduction (using avg. social costs at 2.5% discount rate) *.             2.5         1,446.6         3,979.1
GHG Reduction (using 95th percentile social costs at 3% discount               3         2,648.9         7,289.0
 rate) *........................................................
NOX Reduction **................................................               3            96.4           230.8
                                                                               7            33.5            80.7
SO2 Reduction **................................................               3           147.2           370.5
                                                                               7            51.7           131.4
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Estimates of SC-CO2 SC-CH4, and SC-N2O are calculated using a range of discount rates for use in regulatory
  analyses. Three sets of values are based on the average social costs from the integrated assessment models, at
  discount rates of 5 percent, 3 percent, and 2.5 percent. The fourth set, which represents the 95th percentile
  of the social cost distributions calculated using a 3-percent discount rate, is included to represent higher-
  than-expected impacts from climate change further out in the tails of the social cost distributions. The
  social cost values are emission year specific. See section IV.D of the August 2021 MH SNOPR for more details.
** The benefits from NOX and SO2 were based on the low estimate monetized value.


[[Page 59060]]

VII. Comparison of the August 2021 MH SNOPR and NODA Results

    This section provides summary tables that compare the results from 
the August 2021 MH SNOPR to all the scenarios presented in this NODA, 
including the sensitivity analyses. As such, each table presents 
results for the: (1) August 2021 MH SNOPR analysis; (2) NODA updated 
SNOPR analysis (section IV); (3) NODA sensitivity--alternate size-based 
tier threshold (section V); (4) NODA sensitivity--alternate R-21 wall 
insulation for climate zone 2 and 3 for Tier 2 and untiered (section 
VI); and (5) NODA sensitivity--alternate R-21 wall insulation for 
climate zone 2 and 3 and alternate size-based tier threshold (section 
VI.A).
    In the August 2021 MH SNOPR, DOE estimated the SNOPR would result 
in a decrease in shipments of about 53,329 homes (single section and 
multi-section combined) for the tiered standard and about 71,290 homes 
(single section and multi-section combined) for untiered standards 
based on a price elasticity of demand of -0.48 for the 30 year analysis 
period (2023-2052). 86 FR 47744, 47758. Table VII.1 presents the same 
results for the NODA and sensitivity analyses.

   Table VII.1--Change In Shipments for Tiered and Untiered Standards
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                          Reduction in shipments (total)
                                         -------------------------------
                                              Tiered         Untiered
------------------------------------------------------------------------
August 2021 MH SNOPR....................          53,329          71,290
NODA Updated SNOPR......................          45,562          70,203
Sensitivity--Alternate Size-Based Tier            38,288             N/A
 Threshold..............................
Sensitivity--Alternate R-21 Wall                  36,648          53,185
 Insulation.............................
Sensitivity--Alternate R-21 Wall                  31,956             N/A
 Insulation and Size-Based Tier
 Threshold..............................
------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The following tables present the NPV results for the August 2021 MH 
SNOPR and all the scenarios presented in this NODA, including the 
sensitivity analyses.

  Table VII.2--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year
                                         Lifetime at a 7% Discount Rate
                                              [In billion 2020$] *
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                   Sensitivity--
                                                                   Sensitivity--   Sensitivity--  alternate R-21
                                  August 2021 MH   NODA updated   alternate size- alternate R-21       wall
          Climate zone                 SNOPR           SNOPR         based tier        wall       insulation and
                                                                     threshold      insulation      size- based
                                                                                                  tier threshold
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                Tiered Standard (Single-section + Multi-section)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...............................           $0.69           $0.46           $0.46           $0.46           $0.46
2...............................            0.16            0.07            0.10            0.33            0.33
3...............................            0.78            0.51            0.57            0.70            0.73
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.......................            1.62            1.04            1.13            1.50            1.52
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                               Untiered Standard (Single-section + Multi-section)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1...............................            0.70            0.46             N/A            0.46             N/A
2...............................            0.06          (0.10)             N/A            0.30             N/A
3...............................            0.61            0.27             N/A            0.61             N/A
                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.......................            1.36            0.63             N/A            1.37             N/A
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Negative values in parenthesis.


      Table VII.3--Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Manufactured Homes Purchased 2023-2052 With a 30-Year Lifetime at a 3% Discount Rate
                                                                  [In billion 2020$] *
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                                          Sensitivity--
                                                                                                      Sensitivity--     Sensitivity--    alternate R-21
                         Climate zone                            August 2021 MH     NODA updated     alternate size-   alternate R-21    wall insulation
                                                                      SNOPR             SNOPR          based tier      wall insulation   and size- based
                                                                                                        threshold                        tier threshold
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    Tiered Standard (Single-Section + Multi-Section)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.............................................................             $2.39             $1.60             $1.57             $1.60             $1.57
2.............................................................              1.17              0.74              0.79              1.26              1.24

[[Page 59061]]

 
3.............................................................              2.84              1.85              1.95              2.23              2.25
                                                               -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.....................................................              6.40              4.20              4.31              5.10              5.07
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                   Untiered Standard (Single-Section + Multi-Section)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.............................................................              2.48              1.68               N/A              1.68               N/A
2.............................................................              1.02              0.44               N/A              1.26               N/A
3.............................................................              2.56              1.40               N/A              2.06               N/A
                                                               -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total.....................................................              6.06              3.51               N/A              4.99               N/A
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


                                 Table VII.4--Net Present Value of Monetized Benefits From GHG and Emissions Reductions
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                   Net present
                                                                  value million                       Sensitivity--                       Sensitivity--
                                                                      2020$         NODA updated     alternate size-    Sensitivity--    alternate R-21
              Monetary benefits                Discount rate % ------------------       SNOPR          based tier      alternate R-21    wall insulation
                                                                 August 2021 MH                         threshold      wall insulation   and size- based
                                                                      SNOPR                                                              tier threshold
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                     Tiered Standard
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG.........................................                 5          $1,075.4            $842.1            $809.2            $810.8            $783.4
                                                             3           4,525.0           3,555.4           3,416.5           3,423.1           3,307.2
NOX.........................................                 3             446.0             348.1             339.5             333.1             327.2
                                                             7             157.2             121.5             118.5             116.3             114.2
SO2.........................................                 3             734.7             549.5             536.2             527.0             517.7
                                                             7             259.3             194.3             189.6             186.4             183.1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    Untiered Standard
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
GHG.........................................                 5           1,190.5             982.9               N/A             932.9               N/A
                                                             3           5,009.4           4,149.4               N/A           3,937.7               N/A
NOX.........................................                 3             491.7             408.1               N/A             384.0               N/A
                                                             7             173.3             142.5               N/A             134.1               N/A
SO2.........................................                 3             811.0             646.2               N/A             610.1               N/A
                                                             7             286.3             228.7               N/A             216.0               N/A
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VIII. Reopening of Comment Period

    For the August 2021 MH SNOPR, comments were originally due no later 
than October 25, 2021. In light of this NODA, DOE has determined that 
it is appropriate to reopen the comment period to allow additional time 
for interested parties to prepare and submit comments. Therefore, DOE 
is reopening the comment period and will accept comments, data, and 
information on the August 2021 MH SNOPR and this NODA on and before 
November 26, 2021. Accordingly, DOE will consider any comments received 
by this date to be timely submitted.

IX. Public Participation

    While DOE is not requesting comments on specific portions of the 
analysis, DOE is interested in receiving comments on all aspects of the 
data and analysis presented in the NODA and supporting documentation 
that can be found at: www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/standards.aspx?productid=64.

A. Submission of Comments

    DOE will accept comments, data, and information regarding this 
supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking before or after the public 
meeting, but no later than the date provided in the DATES section at 
the beginning of this proposed rule. Interested parties may submit 
comments, data, and other information using any of the methods 
described in the ADDRESSES section at the beginning of this document.
    Submitting comments via www.regulations.gov. The 
www.regulations.gov web page will require you to provide your name and 
contact information. Your contact information will be viewable to DOE 
Building Technologies staff only. Your contact information will not be 
publicly viewable except for your first and last names, organization 
name (if any), and submitter representative name (if any). If your 
comment is not processed properly because of technical difficulties, 
DOE will use this information to contact you. If DOE cannot read your 
comment due to technical difficulties and cannot contact you for 
clarification, DOE may not be able to consider your comment.
    However, your contact information will be publicly viewable if you 
include it in the comment itself or in any documents attached to your 
comment. Any information that you do not want

[[Page 59062]]

to be publicly viewable should not be included in your comment, nor in 
any document attached to your comment. Otherwise, persons viewing 
comments will see only first and last names, organization names, 
correspondence containing comments, and any documents submitted with 
the comments.
    Do not submit to www.regulations.gov information for which 
disclosure is restricted by statute, such as trade secrets and 
commercial or financial information (hereinafter referred to as 
Confidential Business Information (``CBI'')). Comments submitted 
through www.regulations.gov cannot be claimed as CBI. Comments received 
through the website will waive any CBI claims for the information 
submitted. For information on submitting CBI, see the Confidential 
Business Information section.
    DOE processes submissions made through www.regulations.gov before 
posting. Normally, comments will be posted within a few days of being 
submitted. However, if large volumes of comments are being processed 
simultaneously, your comment may not be viewable for up to several 
weeks. Please keep the comment tracking number that www.regulations.gov 
provides after you have successfully uploaded your comment.
    Submitting comments via email. Comments and documents submitted via 
email also will be posted to www.regulations.gov. If you do not want 
your personal contact information to be publicly viewable, do not 
include it in your comment or any accompanying documents. Instead, 
provide your contact information in a cover letter. Include your first 
and last names, email address, telephone number, and optional mailing 
address. The cover letter will not be publicly viewable as long as it 
does not include any comments.
    Include contact information each time you submit comments, data, 
documents, and other information to DOE. No telefacsimiles (``faxes'') 
will be accepted.
    Comments, data, and other information submitted to DOE 
electronically should be provided in PDF (preferred), Microsoft Word or 
Excel, WordPerfect, or text (ASCII) file format. Provide documents that 
are not secured, that are written in English, and that are free of any 
defects or viruses. Documents should not contain special characters or 
any form of encryption and, if possible, they should carry the 
electronic signature of the author.
    Campaign form letters. Please submit campaign form letters by the 
originating organization in batches of between 50 to 500 form letters 
per PDF or as one form letter with a list of supporters' names compiled 
into one or more PDFs. This reduces comment processing and posting 
time.
    Confidential Business Information. Pursuant to 10 CFR 1004.11, any 
person submitting information that he or she believes to be 
confidential and exempt by law from public disclosure should submit via 
email two well-marked copies: One copy of the document marked 
``confidential'' including all the information believed to be 
confidential, and one copy of the document marked ``non-confidential'' 
with the information believed to be confidential deleted. DOE will make 
its own determination about the confidential status of the information 
and treat it according to its determination.
    It is DOE's policy that all comments may be included in the public 
docket, without change and as received, including any personal 
information provided in the comments (except information deemed to be 
exempt from public disclosure).

X. Approval of the Office of the Secretary

    The Secretary of Energy has approved publication of this 
supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking; reopening of comment period 
and notification of data availability.

Signing Authority

    This document of the Department of Energy was signed on October 19, 
2021, by Kelly Speakes-Backman, Principal Deputy Assistant Secretary 
and Acting Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency and Renewable 
Energy, pursuant to delegated authority from the Secretary of Energy. 
That document with the original signature and date is maintained by 
DOE. For administrative purposes only, and in compliance with 
requirements of the Office of the Federal Register, the undersigned DOE 
Federal Register Liaison Officer has been authorized to sign and submit 
the document in electronic format for publication, as an official 
document of the Department of Energy. This administrative process in no 
way alters the legal effect of this document upon publication in the 
Federal Register.

    Signed in Washington, DC, on October 20, 2021.
Treena V. Garrett,
Federal Register Liaison Officer, U.S. Department of Energy.
[FR Doc. 2021-23188 Filed 10-25-21; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450-01-P