[Federal Register Volume 85, Number 223 (Wednesday, November 18, 2020)]
[Notices]
[Pages 73457-73458]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2020-25457]


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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

Census Bureau


Agency Information Collection Activities; Submission to the 
Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for Review and Approval; Comment 
Request; Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders Survey

    The Department of Commerce will submit the following information 
collection request to the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) for 
review and clearance in accordance with the Paperwork Reduction Act of 
1995, on or after the date of publication of this notice. We invite the 
general public and other Federal agencies to comment on proposed, and 
continuing information collections, which helps us assess the impact of 
our information collection requirements and minimize the public's 
reporting burden. Public comments were previously requested via the 
Federal Register on September 3, 2020 during a 60-day comment period. 
This notice allows for an additional 30 days for public comments.
    Agency: Census Bureau.
    Title: Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3) 
Survey.
    OMB Control Number: 0607-0008.
    Form Number(s): M-3(SD).
    Type of Request: Regular submission, Request for a Revision of a 
Currently Approved Collection.
    Number of Respondents: 5,000.
    Average Hours per Response: 20 minutes.
    Burden Hours: 20,000.
    Needs and Uses: The U.S. Census Bureau is requesting a revision of 
the currently approved collection for the Manufacturers' Shipments, 
Inventories, and Orders (M3) survey. This survey collects monthly data 
from domestic manufacturers on Form M-3 (SD), which is mailed at the 
end of each month. Data requested are shipments, new orders, unfilled 
orders, and inventories by stage of fabrication. It is currently the 
only survey that provides broad-based monthly statistical data on the 
economic conditions in the domestic manufacturing sector. The survey is 
designed to measure current industrial activity and to provide an 
indication of future production commitments. The value of shipments 
measures the value of goods delivered during the month by domestic 
manufacturers. Estimates of new orders serve as an indicator of future 
production commitments and represent the current sales value of new 
orders received during the month, net of cancellations. Substantial 
accumulation

[[Page 73458]]

or depletion of backlogs of unfilled orders measures excess (or 
deficient) demand for manufactured products. The level of inventories, 
especially in relation to shipments, is frequently used to monitor the 
business cycle.
    The M3 survey has been conducted monthly by the U.S. Census Bureau 
since 1957. The Advance Report on Durable Goods, Manufacturers' 
Shipments, Inventories and Orders is an advance snapshot of the current 
value of manufacturing in the U.S. It is available about 18 working 
days after each month. The M3 survey also produces the Full Report on 
Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories and Orders. This report details 
information on the durable goods industries, and also includes the non-
durable goods industries. In addition, the Full Report captures late 
receipts, and is available about 23 working days after each month. 
Beginning in 2021, the U.S. Census Bureau will be accelerating the non-
durable manufacturing data in the advance high-level total 
manufacturing estimates for shipments and inventories. This additional 
data release will provide data users with early access to total 
manufacturing estimates, giving an early snapshot of the direction of 
this critical indicator. Prior to releasing the advance total 
manufacturing data, the U.S. Census Bureau submitted a memo of 
exception to the Office of Management and Budget. The advance 
statistics for shipments and inventories will be released at the same 
time as the Advance Report on Durable Goods Manufacturers' Shipments, 
Inventories and Orders.
    The notice in the Federal Register on September 3, 2020 (Volume 85, 
No. 172, Pages 54981-54982) announcing our plans to submit this request 
included information on the possible upcoming collection of a new 
module of business expectation. At this time, research and testing for 
an uncertainty pilot collection is still underway; once any concrete 
timeline is determined, a request for this additional module will be 
submitted.
    The M3 survey provides an essential component of the current 
economic indicators needed for assessing the evolving status of the 
economy and formulating economic policy. The Office of Information and 
Regulatory Affairs (OIRA), Office of Management and Budget (OMB) has 
designated this survey as a principal federal economic indicator. The 
shipments and inventories data are essential inputs to the gross 
domestic product (GDP), while the orders data are direct inputs to The 
Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI), which is a composite 
index of ten key elements designed to monitor the business cycle 
(https://www.conference-board.org/data/bcicountry.cfm?cid=1). The GDP 
and the LEI would be incomplete without these data. Orders for durable 
goods are an important leading economic indicator. Businesses and 
consumers generally place orders for durable goods when they are 
confident the economy is improving. A durable goods report showing an 
increase in orders is a sign that the economy is trending upwards. 
Durable goods orders tell investors what to expect from the 
manufacturing sector, a major component of the economy. The M3 survey 
also provides valuable and timely domestic manufacturing data for 
economic planning and analysis to business firms, trade associations, 
research and consulting agencies, and academia.
    The data are used for analyzing short- and long-term trends, both 
in the manufacturing sector and as related to other sectors of the 
economy. The data on value of shipments, especially when adjusted for 
change in inventories, measure current levels of production. New orders 
figures serve as an indicator of future production commitments. Changes 
in the level of unfilled orders, because of excess or shortfall of new 
orders compared with shipments, are used to measure the excess (or 
deficiency) in the demand for manufactured products. Changes in the 
level of inventories and the relation of these to shipments are used to 
project future movements in manufacturing activity. These statistics 
are valuable for analysts of business cycle conditions, including 
members of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), the Bureau of 
Economic Analysis (BEA), the Federal Reserve Board (FRB), the 
Department of the Treasury, The Conference Board, business firms, trade 
associations, private research and consulting agencies, and the 
academic community.
    Affected Public: Business or other for-profit organizations.
    Frequency: Monthly.
    Respondent's Obligation: Voluntary.
    Legal Authority: Title 13, United States Code, Sections 131, 182, 
and 193.
    This information collection request may be viewed at 
www.reginfo.gov. Follow the instructions to view the Department of 
Commerce collections currently under review by OMB.
    Written comments and recommendations for the proposed information 
collection should be submitted within 30 days of the publication of 
this notice on the following website www.reginfo.gov/public/do/PRAMain. 
Find this particular information collection by selecting ``Currently 
under 30-day Review--Open for Public Comments'' or by using the search 
function and entering either the title of the collection or the OMB 
Control Number 0607-0008.

Sheleen Dumas,
Department PRA Clearance Officer, Office of the Chief Information 
Officer, Commerce Department.
[FR Doc. 2020-25457 Filed 11-17-20; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 3510-07-P