[Federal Register Volume 84, Number 204 (Tuesday, October 22, 2019)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 56540-56587]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2019-22537]



[[Page 56539]]

Vol. 84

Tuesday,

No. 204

October 22, 2019

Part II





Department of Energy





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10 CFR Part 430





Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for 
Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts; Proposed Rule

  Federal Register / Vol. 84, No. 204 / Tuesday, October 22, 2019 / 
Proposed Rules  

[[Page 56540]]


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DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

10 CFR Part 430

[EERE-2015-BT-STD-0006]
RIN 1905-AD51


Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for 
Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts

AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of 
Energy.

ACTION: Notice of proposed determination and request for comment.

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SUMMARY: The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975, as amended 
(EPCA), prescribes energy conservation standards for various consumer 
products and certain commercial and industrial equipment, including 
fluorescent lamp ballasts. EPCA also requires the U.S. Department of 
Energy (DOE) to periodically determine whether more-stringent, amended 
standards would be technologically feasible and economically justified, 
and would result in significant energy savings. In this notice of 
proposed determination (NOPD), DOE has initially determined that energy 
conservation standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts do not need to be 
amended and also asks for comment on this proposed determination and 
associated analyses and results.

DATES: 
    Meeting: DOE will hold a webinar on Wednesday, October 30, 2019, 
from 10:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. See section V, ``Public Participation,'' 
for webinar registration information, participant instructions, and 
information about the capabilities available to webinar participants. 
If no participants register for the webinar than it will be cancelled. 
DOE will hold a public meeting on this proposed determination if one is 
requested by November 5, 2019.
    Comments: Written comments and information are requested and will 
be accepted on or before December 23, 2019.

ADDRESSES: Interested persons are encouraged to submit comments using 
the Federal eRulemaking Portal at http://www.regulations.gov. Follow 
the instructions for submitting comments. Alternatively, interested 
persons may submit comments, identified by docket number EERE-2015-BT-
STD-0006, by any of the following methods:
    (1) Federal eRulemaking Portal: http://www.regulations.gov. Follow 
the instructions for submitting comments.
    (2) Email: [email protected]. Include the 
docket number EERE-2015-BT-STD-0006 in the subject line of the message.
    (3) Postal Mail: Appliance and Equipment Standards Program, U.S. 
Department of Energy, Building Technologies Office, Mailstop EE-5B, 
1000 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20585-0121. Telephone: 
(202) 287-1445. If possible, please submit all items on a compact disc 
(``CD''), in which case it is not necessary to include printed copies.
    (4) Hand Delivery/Courier: Appliance and Equipment Standards 
Program, U.S. Department of Energy, Building Technologies Office, 950 
L'Enfant Plaza SW, 6th Floor, Washington, DC 20024. Telephone: (202) 
287-1445. If possible, please submit all items on a CD, in which case 
it is not necessary to include printed copies.
    No telefacsimiles (faxes) will be accepted. For detailed 
instructions on submitting comments and additional information on this 
process, see section VII of this document.
    Docket: The docket, which includes Federal Register notices, public 
meeting attendee lists and transcripts, comments, and other supporting 
documents/materials, is available for review at http://www.regulations.gov. All documents in the docket are listed in the 
http://www.regulations.gov index. However, not all documents listed in 
the index may be publicly available, such as information that is exempt 
from public disclosure.
    The docket web page can be found at https://www.regulations.gov/document?D=EERE-2015-BT-STD-0006. The docket web page contains 
instructions on how to access all documents, including public comments, 
in the docket. See section VII, ``Public Participation,'' for further 
information on how to submit comments through http://www.regulations.gov.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: 
    Ms. Lucy deButts, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy 
Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Building Technologies Office, EE-5B, 
1000 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20585-0121. Email: 
[email protected].
    Ms. Sarah Butler, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of the General 
Counsel, GC-33, 1000 Independence Avenue SW, Washington, DC 20585-0121. 
Telephone: (202) 586-1777. Email: [email protected].
    For further information on how to submit a comment or review other 
public comments and the docket contact the Appliance and Equipment 
Standards Program staff at (202) 287-1445 or by email: 
[email protected].

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Table of Contents

I. Synopsis of the Proposed Determination
II. Introduction
    A. Authority and Background
    1. Current Standards
    2. History of Standards Rulemakings for Fluorescent Lamp 
Ballasts
III. General Discussion
    A. Product Classes and Scope of Coverage
    B. Test Procedure
    C. Technological Feasibility
    1. General
    2. Maximum Technologically Feasible Levels
    D. Energy Savings
    1. Determination of Savings
    2. Significance of Savings
    E. Cost Effectiveness
    F. Other Analyses
IV. Methodology and Discussion of Related Comments
    A. Market and Technology Assessment
    1. Scope of Coverage and Product Classes
    a. Dimming Ballasts
    b. Ballasts Operating at 480 V
    c. Low-Current PS Ballasts
    d. Low Frequency EMI Ballasts
    2. Metric
    a. Active Mode Energy Consumption
    b. Standby Mode Energy Consumption
    3. Technology Options
    4. Screening Analysis
    a. Screened-Out Technologies
    b. Remaining Technologies
    5. Product Classes
    a. Existing Product Classes
    b. Additional Product Classes
    c. Summary
    B. Engineering Analysis
    1. Significant Data Sources
    2. Representative Product Classes
    3. Baseline Ballasts
    4. More-Efficient Substitutes
    5. Efficiency Levels
    6. Scaling to Other Product Classes
    7. Proprietary Designs
    C. Product Price Determination
    D. Energy Use Analysis
    1. Reduced Wattage Fluorescent Lamps
    2. Occupancy Sensors
    3. Dimming Ballasts
    4. Tubular LEDs
    E. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis
    1. Product Cost
    2. Installation Cost
    3. Annual Energy Consumption
    4. Energy Prices
    5. Maintenance and Repair Costs
    6. Product Lifetime
    7. Discount Rates
    8. Energy Efficiency Distribution in the No-New-Standards Case
    9. Payback Period Analysis
    F. Shipments Analysis
    1. Shipment Scenarios Modeled
    2. Dimming Ballasts
    3. Tubular LEDs
    G. National Impact Analysis

[[Page 56541]]

    1. Product Efficiency Trends
    2. National Energy Savings
    3. Net Present Value Analysis
    H. Manufacturer Impact Analysis
    1. Manufacturer Production Costs
    2. Shipments Projections
    3. Product and Capital Conversion Costs
    4. Markup Scenarios
    5. Manufacturer Interviews
    a. Shift to Solid-State Lighting
    b. Limited Investment in Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts
    6. Discussion of MIA Comments
V. Analytical Results and Conclusions
    A. Economic Impacts on Individual Consumers
    1. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period
    2. Rebuttable Presumption Payback
    B. National Impact Analysis
    1. Significance of Energy Savings
    2. Net Present Value of Consumer Costs and Benefits
    C. Economic Impacts on Manufacturers
    1. Industry Cash Flow Analysis Results
    2. Direct Impacts on Employment
    3. Impacts on Manufacturing Capacity
    4. Impacts on Subgroups of Manufacturers
    5. Cumulative Regulatory Burden
    D. Proposed Determination
    1. Technological Feasibility
    2. Cost Effectiveness
    3. Significant Conservation of Energy
    4. Other Analysis
    5. Summary
VI. Procedural Issues and Regulatory Review
    A. Review Under Executive Order 12866
    B. Review Under Executive Orders 13771 and 13777
    C. Review Under the Regulatory Flexibility Act
    D. Review Under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969
    E. Review Under Executive Order 13132
    F. Review Under Executive Order 12988
    G. Review Under the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995
    H. Review Under the Treasury and General Government 
Appropriations Act, 1999
    I. Review Under Executive Order 12630
    J. Review Under the Treasury and General Government 
Appropriations Act, 2001
    K. Review Under Executive Order 13211
    L. Information Quality
VII. Public Participation
    A. Participation in the Webinar
    B. Submission of Comments
    C. Issues on Which DOE Seeks Comment
VIII. Approval of the Office of the Secretary

I. Synopsis of the Proposed Determination

    Title III, Part B \1\ of the Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 
1975, as amended (EPCA),\2\ established the Energy Conservation Program 
for Consumer Products Other Than Automobiles. (42 U.S.C. 6291-6309) 
These products include fluorescent lamp ballasts, the subject of this 
NOPD.
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    \1\ For editorial reasons, upon codification in the U.S. Code, 
Part B was redesignated Part A.
    \2\ All references to EPCA in this document refer to the statute 
as amended through America's Water Infrastructure Act of 2018, 
Public Law 115-270 (October 23, 2018).
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    DOE is issuing this NOPD pursuant to the EPCA requirement that not 
later than 6 years after issuance of any final rule establishing or 
amending an energy conservation standard for a covered product, DOE 
must publish either a notice of determination indicating that standards 
for the product do not need to be amended, or a notice of proposed 
rulemaking (NOPR) including new proposed energy conservation standards. 
(42 U.S.C. 6295(m)(1)(A) and (B))
    For this proposed determination, DOE analyzed fluorescent lamp 
ballasts subject to standards specified in 10 CFR 430.32(m). In 
addition, DOE evaluated whether current standards should be extended to 
additional fluorescent lamp ballasts. Specifically, DOE considered 
standards for dimming ballasts and 4-foot T8 medium bipin (MBP) 
programmed start (PS) ballasts with an average current less than 140 mA 
(hereafter low-current PS ballasts). Hence, potential amended energy 
conservation standards in this NOPD refer not only to changes to 
existing standards but also extension of standards to additional 
fluorescent lamp ballasts.
    DOE first analyzed the technological feasibility of more efficient 
fluorescent lamp ballasts. For those fluorescent lamp ballasts for 
which DOE determined it to be technologically feasible to have higher 
standards or be subject to standards, DOE estimated energy savings that 
would result from potential energy conservation standards by conducting 
a national impacts analysis (NIA). DOE evaluated whether these amended 
standards would be cost effective by conducting life-cycle cost (LCC) 
and payback period (PBP) analyses, and estimated the net present value 
(NPV) of the total costs and benefits experienced by consumers. In 
addition to the consideration of these criteria, DOE conducted a 
manufacturer impact analyses (MIA).
    Based on the results of these analyses summarized in section V of 
this document, DOE has tentatively determined that current standards 
for fluorescent lamp ballasts do not need to be amended because amended 
standards would not be cost effective.

II. Introduction

    The following section briefly discusses the statutory authority 
underlying this proposed determination, as well as some of the relevant 
historical background related to the establishment of standards for 
fluorescent lamp ballasts.

A. Authority and Background

    Title III, Part B of EPCA includes the fluorescent lamp ballasts 
that are the subject of this proposed determination. (42 U.S.C. 
6292(a)(13)) EPCA prescribed energy conservation standards for these 
products. (42 U.S.C. 6295(g)(5)) EPCA directed DOE to (1) conduct two 
rulemaking cycles to determine whether these standards should be 
amended; and (2) for each rulemaking cycle, determine whether the 
standards in effect for fluorescent lamp ballasts should be amended so 
that they would be applicable to additional fluorescent lamp ballasts. 
(42 U.S.C. 6295(g)(7)(A) and (B)) Through amendments to EPCA under the 
Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPACT 2005), Public Law 109-58, Congress 
promulgated new energy conservation standards for certain fluorescent 
lamp ballasts. (EPACT section 135(c)(2); codified at 42 U.S.C. 
6295(g)(8)(A))
    The energy conservation program for covered products under EPCA 
consists essentially of four parts: (1) Testing, (2) labeling, (3) the 
establishment of Federal energy conservation standards, and (4) 
certification and enforcement procedures. The Federal Trade Commission 
(FTC) is primarily responsible for labeling, and DOE implements the 
remainder of the program.
    Subject to certain criteria and conditions, DOE is required to 
develop test procedures to measure the energy efficiency, energy use, 
or estimated annual operating cost of each covered product. (42 U.S.C. 
6295(o)(3)(A) and (r)) Manufacturers of covered products must use the 
prescribed DOE test procedure as the basis for certifying to DOE that 
their products comply with the applicable energy conservation standards 
adopted under EPCA and when making representations to the public 
regarding the energy use or efficiency of those products. (42 U.S.C. 
6293(c) and 6295(s)) Similarly, DOE must use these test procedures to 
determine whether the products comply with standards adopted pursuant 
to EPCA. (42 U.S.C. 6295(s)) The DOE test procedures for fluorescent 
lamp ballasts appear at title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations 
(CFR) part 430, subpart B, appendix Q.
    Federal energy conservation requirements generally supersede State 
laws or regulations concerning energy conservation testing, labeling, 
and standards. (42 U.S.C. 6297(a) through (c)) DOE may, however, grant 
waivers of Federal preemption for particular State laws or regulations, 
in accordance with

[[Page 56542]]

the procedures and other provisions set forth under 42 U.S.C. 6297(d)).
    Pursuant to the amendments contained in the Energy Independence and 
Security Act of 2007 (EISA 2007), Public Law 110-140, any final rule 
for new or amended energy conservation standards promulgated after July 
1, 2010, is required to address standby mode and off mode energy use. 
(42 U.S.C. 6295(gg)(3)) Specifically, when DOE adopts a standard for a 
covered product after that date, it must, if justified by the criteria 
for adoption of standards under EPCA (42 U.S.C. 6295(o)), incorporate 
standby mode and off mode energy use into a single standard, or, if 
that is not feasible, adopt a separate standard for such energy use for 
that product. (42 U.S.C. 6295(gg)(3)(A) and (B)) DOE's current test 
procedures for fluorescent lamp ballasts address standby mode and off 
mode energy use. In this analysis DOE considers such energy use in its 
determination of whether energy conservation standards need to be 
amended.
    DOE is issuing this proposed determination pursuant to 42 U.S.C. 
6295(m), which states that DOE must periodically review its already 
established energy conservation standards for a covered product no 
later than 6 years from the issuance of a final rule establishing or 
amending a standard for a covered product. As a result of this review, 
DOE must either publish a determination that standards do not need to 
be amended or a NOPR, including new proposed standards (proceeding to a 
final rule, as appropriate). (42 U.S.C. 6295(m)(1)) EPCA further 
provides that, not later than 3 years after the issuance of a final 
determination not to amend standards, DOE must make a new determination 
and publish either a notice of determination that standards for the 
product do not need to be amended, or a NOPR including new proposed 
energy conservation standards (proceeding to a final rule, as 
appropriate). (42 U.S.C. 6295(m)(3)(B)) DOE must make the analysis on 
which the determination is based publicly available and provide an 
opportunity for written comment. (42 U.S.C. 6295(m)(2)) A determination 
that amended standards are not needed must be based on consideration of 
whether amended standards will result in significant conservation of 
energy, are technologically feasible, and are cost effective. (42 
U.S.C. 6295(m)(1)(A) and (n)(2)) An evaluation of cost effectiveness 
requires that DOE consider savings in operating costs throughout the 
estimated average life of the covered products in the type (or class) 
compared to any increase in the price of, or initial charges for, or 
maintenance expenses of, the covered products that are likely to result 
from the standard. (42 U.S.C. 6295(n)(2) and (o)(2)(B)(i)(II))
1. Current Standards
    In a final rule published on November 14, 2011, DOE prescribed the 
current energy conservation standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts 
manufactured on and after November 14, 2014 (2011 FL Ballast Rule). 76 
FR 70548. These standards require a minimum power factor of 0.9 or 
greater for ballasts that are not residential ballasts or 0.5 or 
greater for residential ballasts and a minimum ballast luminous 
efficiency (BLE) as set forth in DOE's regulations at 10 CFR 430.32(m) 
and repeated in Table II.1.

                 Table II.1--Federal Energy Conservation Standards for Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts
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         BLE = A / (1 + B * average total lamp arc power [supcaret]-C) Where A, B, and C are as follows:
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                               Description                                      A            B            C
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Instant start and rapid start ballasts (not classified as residential)
 that are designed to operate:
    4-foot medium bipin lamps, 2-foot U-shaped lamps, 8-foot slimline            0.993         0.27         0.25
     lamps...............................................................
Programmed start ballasts (not classified as residential) that are
 designed to operate:
    4-foot medium bipin lamps, 2-foot U-shaped lamps, 4-foot miniature           0.993         0.51         0.37
     bipin standard output lamps, 4-foot miniature bipin high output
     lamps...............................................................
Instant start and rapid start ballasts (not classified as sign ballasts)         0.993         0.38         0.25
 that are designed to operate 8-foot high output lamps...................
Programmed start ballasts (not classified as sign ballasts) that are             0.973         0.70         0.37
 designed to operate 8-foot high output lamps............................
Sign ballasts that operate 8-foot high output lamps......................        0.993         0.47         0.25
Instant start and rapid start residential ballasts that operate:
    4-foot medium bipin lamps, 2-foot U-shaped lamps, 8-foot slimline            0.993         0.41         0.25
     lamps...............................................................
Programmed start residential ballasts that are designed to operate:
    4-foot medium bipin lamps, 2-foot U-shaped lamps.....................        0.973         0.71         0.37
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2. History of Standards Rulemakings for Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts
    On September 19, 2000, DOE published a final rule in the Federal 
Register, which completed the first of the two rulemaking cycles to 
evaluate and amend the energy conservation standards for fluorescent 
lamp ballasts (2000 FL Ballast Rule). 65 FR 56740. The rulemaking 
established a standard reflecting a recommendation presented in a joint 
comment submitted by members of the fluorescent lamp ballast (FLB) 
industry and energy efficiency advocacy organizations. (Id.)
    On October 18, 2005, DOE published a final rule in the Federal 
Register codifying the new FLB standards established in EPACT 2005 
section 135(c)(2) into the CFR at 10 CFR 430.32(m). 70 FR 60407. These 
standards established ballast efficiency requirements for ballasts that 
operate ``energy saver'' versions of full-wattage lamps, such as the 
F34T12 lamp.
    Following the amendments from EPACT 2005, the second rulemaking 
cycle required by 42 U.S.C. 6295(g)(7) was completed with publication 
of the 2011 FL Ballast Rule. 76 FR 70548. The 2011 FL Ballast Rule 
changed the metric required for fluorescent lamp ballasts from ballast 
efficacy factor (BEF) to ballast luminous efficiency (BLE) and set new 
and amended energy conservation standards.
    In support of the present review of the fluorescent lamp ballast 
energy conservation standards, DOE prepared the ``Energy Conservation 
Standards Rulemaking Framework Document for Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts'' 
(Framework Document), which describes the procedural and analytical 
approaches DOE anticipated using to evaluate energy conservation 
standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts. On June 23, 2015, DOE 
published a notice announcing the availability of the Framework 
document. 80 FR 35886. The Framework document is available

[[Page 56543]]

at https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/standards.aspx?productid=3.
    DOE held a public meeting on July 17, 2015, at which it described 
the various analyses that DOE would conduct as part of its review of 
the energy conservation standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts, such 
as the engineering analysis, the LCC and PBP analyses, and the NIA. 
Representatives for manufacturers, trade associations, environmental 
and energy efficiency advocates, and other interested parties attended 
the meeting.\3\
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    \3\ A transcript of the public meeting and supporting documents 
are available in the docket for this proposed determination at: 
https://www.regulations.gov/docket?D=EERE-2015-BT-STD-0006.
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III. General Discussion

    DOE developed this proposed determination after considering oral 
and written comments, data, and information from interested parties 
that represent a variety of interests. This notice addresses issues 
raised by these commenters.

A. Product Classes and Scope of Coverage

    When evaluating and establishing energy conservation standards, DOE 
divides covered products into product classes by the type of energy 
used or by capacity or other performance-related features that justify 
differing standards. In making a determination whether a performance-
related feature justifies a different standard, DOE must consider such 
factors as the utility of the feature to the consumer and other factors 
DOE determines are appropriate. (42 U.S.C. 6295(q)) The product classes 
for this proposed determination are discussed in further detail in 
section IV.A.5. This proposed determination covers fluorescent lamp 
ballasts defined as a device which is used to start and operate 
fluorescent lamps by providing a starting voltage and current and 
limiting the current during normal operation. 10 CFR 430.2. The scope 
of coverage is discussed in further detail in section IV.A.1.

B. Test Procedure

    EPCA sets forth generally applicable criteria and procedures for 
DOE's adoption and amendment of test procedures. (42 U.S.C. 6293) 
Manufacturers of covered products must use these test procedures to 
certify to DOE that their product complies with energy conservation 
standards and to quantify the efficiency of their product. DOE's 
current energy conservation standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts are 
expressed in terms of BLE. (See 10 CFR 430.32(m).)
    DOE published a test procedure final rule on October 22, 2009, 
establishing standby mode energy consumption test procedures for 
fluorescent lamp ballasts (2009 Standby Test Procedure). 74 FR 54445. 
DOE published a test procedure final rule on May 4, 2011, establishing 
revised active mode test procedures for fluorescent lamp ballasts (2011 
Active Mode Test Procedure). 76 FR 25211. The test procedures for 
fluorescent lamp ballasts are codified in appendix Q to subpart B of 
part 430.\4\
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    \4\ The 2011 Active Mode Test Procedure Final Rule established 
appendix Q1 to subpart B of part 430, which was subsequently 
redesignated as appendix Q to subpart B of part 430 by the 
clarification rule published in 2015. 80 FR 31971 (June 5, 2015).
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    Subsequently, DOE published several final rules further refining 
the test procedures for fluorescent lamp ballasts. On February 4, 2015, 
in a final rule, DOE adopted amendments to further specify the 
appropriate test procedure and that followed the intent of the 2011 
Active Mode Test Procedure to support any new or revised energy 
conservation standards at the time those standards require compliance. 
80 FR 5896. On June 5, 2015, in a final rule, DOE revised definitions 
and test setup, modified organization of requirements, and deleted 
obsolete requirements. 80 FR 31971. On April 29, 2016, in a final rule, 
DOE replaced all instances of ballast efficacy factor (BEF) with BLE as 
applicable, added rounding instructions for BLE and power factor, 
clarified represented value instructions for power factor, and 
clarified lamp-ballast pairings for testing. 81 FR 25595.
    In the Framework document, DOE requested comments on the current 
test procedures for fluorescent lamp ballasts and whether amendments 
are needed. Pacific Gas and Electric Company, Southern California Gas 
Company, San Diego Gas and Electric Company, and Southern California 
Edison, collectively referred to herein as the California investor-
owned utilities (CA IOUs), and the Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance 
(NEEA) recommended that DOE begin a review of its test procedure for 
fluorescent lamp ballasts if it is considering expanding the scope of 
standards to dimming ballasts. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 3; NEEA, Public 
Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 68) The National Electrical 
Manufacturers Association (NEMA) and Philips Lighting North America 
Corporation (Philips) \5\ stated that some technical experts have been 
considering an alternative testing procedure that would require 
preheating potted ballasts. They asserted that this alternative test 
procedure would remove the need to acquire large amounts of data and 
save time but yield comparable results to the current DOE test 
procedure. (Philips, No. 8 at p. 2; NEMA, No. 12 at p. 2)
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    \5\ Between the time of the public meeting and the publication 
of this NOPD, Philips Lighting changed its name to Signify. However, 
because at the time, the name was Philips, as well as comments in 
the docket were provided under the Philips name, throughout this 
document, its comments will refer to the company name at the time of 
the public meeting.
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    DOE appreciates the feedback on DOE's current test procedures for 
fluorescent lamp ballasts. DOE initiated a review of the test 
procedures and on March 18, 2019, published a notice of proposed 
rulemaking for FLB test procedures in which it discusses these comments 
in detail (hereafter ``FLB TP NOPR''). 84 FR 9910.

C. Technological Feasibility

1. General
    In evaluating potential amendments to energy conservation 
standards, DOE conducts a screening analysis based on information 
gathered on all current technology options and prototype designs that 
could improve the efficiency of the products or equipment that are the 
subject of the rulemaking. As the first step in such an analysis, DOE 
develops a list of technology options for consideration in consultation 
with manufacturers, design engineers, and other interested parties. DOE 
then determines which of those means for improving efficiency are 
technologically feasible. DOE considers technologies incorporated in 
commercially available products or in working prototypes to be 
technologically feasible. 10 CFR part 430, subpart C, appendix A, 
section 4(a)(4)(i)
    After DOE has determined that particular technology options are 
technologically feasible, it further evaluates each technology option 
in light of the following additional screening criteria: (1) 
Practicability to manufacture, install, and service; (2) adverse 
impacts on product utility or availability; and (3) adverse impacts on 
health or safety. 10 CFR part 430, subpart C, appendix A, section 
4(a)(4)(ii)-(iv) Additionally, it is DOE policy not to include in its 
analysis any proprietary technology that is a unique pathway to 
achieving a certain efficiency level. Section IV.A.4 of this document 
discusses the results of the screening analysis for fluorescent lamp 
ballasts, particularly the designs DOE considered, those it screened 
out, and

[[Page 56544]]

those that are the basis for the standards considered in this proposed 
determination. For further details on the screening analysis for this 
proposed determination, see chapter 4 of the NOPD technical support 
document (TSD).
2. Maximum Technologically Feasible Levels
    When DOE considers amended standards for a type or class of covered 
product, it must determine the maximum improvement in energy efficiency 
or maximum reduction in energy use that is technologically feasible for 
such a product. (42 U.S.C. 6295(p)(1)) Accordingly, in the engineering 
analysis, DOE determined the maximum technologically feasible (``max-
tech'') improvements in energy efficiency for fluorescent lamp 
ballasts, using the design parameters for the most efficient products 
available on the market or in working prototypes. The max-tech levels 
that DOE determined for this analysis are described in section IV.B of 
this proposed determination and in chapter 5 of the NOPD TSD.

D. Energy Savings

1. Determination of Savings
    For each efficiency level (EL) evaluated, DOE projected energy 
savings from application of the EL to the fluorescent lamp ballast 
purchased in the 30-year period that begins in the assumed year of 
compliance with the potential standards (2023-2052). The savings are 
measured over the entire lifetime of the fluorescent lamp ballasts 
purchased in the previous 30-year period. DOE quantified the energy 
savings attributable to each EL as the difference in energy consumption 
between each standards case and the no-new-standards case. The no-new-
standards case represents a projection of energy consumption that 
reflects how the market for a product would likely evolve in the 
absence of amended energy conservation standards.
    DOE used its NIA spreadsheet model to estimate national energy 
savings (NES) from potential amended standards for fluorescent lamp 
ballasts. The NIA spreadsheet model (described in section IV.G of this 
document) calculates energy savings in terms of site energy, which is 
the energy directly consumed by products at the locations where they 
are used. For electricity, DOE reports NES in terms of both site and 
source energy savings, which is the savings in the energy that is used 
to generate and transmit the site electricity. DOE also calculates NES 
in terms of full-fuel-cycle (FFC) energy savings. The FFC metric 
includes the energy consumed in extracting, processing, and 
transporting primary fuels (i.e., coal, natural gas, petroleum fuels), 
and thus presents a more complete picture of the impacts of energy 
conservation standards.\6\ DOE's approach is based on the calculation 
of an FFC multiplier for each of the energy types used by covered 
products or equipment. For more information on FFC energy savings, see 
section IV.G of this document.
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    \6\ The FFC metric is discussed in DOE's statement of policy and 
notice of policy amendment. 76 FR 51282 (Aug. 18, 2011), as amended 
at 77 FR 49701 (Aug. 17, 2012).
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2. Significance of Savings
    In determining whether amended standards are needed, DOE must 
consider whether such standards will result in significant conservation 
of energy. (42 U.S.C. 6295(m)(1)(A)) In the Proposed Procedures for Use 
in New or Revised Energy Conservation Standards and Test Procedures for 
Consumer Products and Commercial/Industrial Equipment (``Proposed 
Process Rule''), DOE recently proposed to define a significant energy 
savings threshold. (84 FR 3910, February 13, 2019). Specifically, DOE 
stated that it is considering using two step approach that would 
consider both a quad threshold value and a percentage threshold value 
to ascertain whether a potential standard satisfies 42 U.S.C. 
6295(o)(3)(B) to ensure that DOE avoids setting a standard that ``will 
not result in significant conservation of energy.'' 84 FR 3924. In a 
subsequent Notice of Data Availability, DOE noted that because EPCA 
uses a household energy consumption metric as a threshold for setting 
standards for new covered products (42 U.S.C. 6295(l)(1)), DOE believes 
that site energy would be the most appropriate metric for evaluating 
energy savings across rulemakings. (86 FR 36037, July 26, 2019) As a 
result, DOE provided national site energy savings data from its past 
rulemakings for public comment to help inform DOE's decision regarding 
whether (and how) to define a threshold for significant energy savings. 
Consistent with this approach, in addition to source energy savings and 
FFC energy savings, DOE's analysis presents site energy savings. In 
addition, DOE's conclusions with respect to significance of energy 
savings are based on site energy savings. DOE's updates to the Process 
Rule have not yet been finalized.

E. Cost Effectiveness

    In making a determination of whether amended energy conservation 
standards are needed, EPCA requires DOE to consider the cost 
effectiveness of amended standards in the context of the savings in 
operating costs throughout the estimated average life of the covered 
product compared to any increase in the price of, or in the initial 
charges for, or maintenance expenses of, the covered product that are 
likely to result from a standard. (42 U.S.C. 6295(m)(1)(A), (n)(2), and 
(o)(2)(B)(i)(II))
    In determining cost effectiveness of amending standards for 
fluorescent lamp ballasts, DOE conducted LCC and PBP analyses to 
evaluate the economic effects on individual consumers of potential 
energy conservation standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts. To further 
inform DOE's consideration of the cost effectiveness of amended 
standards, DOE considered the NPV of total costs and benefits estimated 
as part of the NIA. The inputs for determining the NPV of the total 
costs and benefits experienced by consumers are (1) total annual 
installed cost, (2) total annual operating costs (energy costs and 
repair and maintenance costs), and (3) a discount factor to calculate 
the present value of costs and savings.

F. Other Analyses

    In addition, DOE conducted a MIA that determines the potential 
economic impact of amended standards on FLB manufacturers.
    The analyses employed by DOE in its consideration of each of the 
criteria applied are discussed in the following sections.

IV. Methodology and Discussion of Related Comments

    This section addresses the analyses DOE performed for this proposed 
determination with regard to fluorescent lamp ballasts. Separate 
subsections address each component of DOE's analyses. DOE used several 
analytical tools to estimate the impact of potential energy 
conservation standards. The first tool is a spreadsheet that calculates 
the LCC savings and PBP of potential energy conservation standards. The 
NIA uses a second spreadsheet set that provides shipments projections 
and calculates NES and net present value of total consumer costs and 
savings expected to result from potential energy conservation 
standards. DOE uses the third spreadsheet tool, the Government 
Regulatory Impact Model (GRIM), to assess manufacturer impacts of 
potential standards. These three spreadsheet tools are available on the 
website: https://

[[Page 56545]]

www.regulations.gov/docket?D=EERE-2015-BT-STD-0006.

A. Market and Technology Assessment

    DOE develops information in the market and technology assessment 
that provides an overall picture of the market for the products 
concerned, including the purpose of the products, the industry 
structure, manufacturers, market characteristics, and technologies used 
in the products. This activity includes both quantitative and 
qualitative assessments, based primarily on publicly available 
information. The subjects addressed in the market and technology 
assessment for this proposed determination include (1) a determination 
of the scope and product classes, (2) manufacturers and industry 
structure, (3) existing efficiency programs, (4) shipments information, 
(5) market and industry trends, and (6) technologies or design options 
that could improve the energy efficiency of fluorescent lamp ballasts. 
The key findings of DOE's market assessment are summarized in the 
following sections. See chapter 3 of the NOPD TSD for further 
discussion of the market and technology assessment.
1. Scope of Coverage and Product Classes
    Fluorescent lamp ballast means a device which is used to start and 
operate fluorescent lamps by providing a starting voltage and current 
and limiting the current during normal operation. 10 CFR 430.2. In this 
analysis, DOE relied on the definition of ``fluorescent lamp'' in 10 
CFR 430.2, which provides the specific lamp lengths, bases, and 
wattages included by the term. Any product meeting the definition of 
fluorescent lamp ballast is included in DOE's scope of coverage, though 
all products within the scope of coverage may not be subject to 
standards.
    As part of its review of energy conservation standards for 
fluorescent lamp ballasts, DOE also evaluated whether current standards 
should be extended to additional fluorescent lamp ballasts.
    Fluorescent lamp ballasts manufactured on or after November 14, 
2014, that are designed and marketed to operate at an input voltage at 
or between 120 volts (V) and 277 V, to operate with an input current 
frequency of 60 hertz, and for use with fluorescent lamps as defined in 
10 CFR 430.2, are currently required to comply with the energy 
conservation standards at 10 CFR 430.32(m)(1).
    Fluorescent lamp ballasts manufactured on or after November 14, 
2014, that are designed and marketed to operate at an input voltage at 
or between 120 and 277 V, to operate with an input current frequency of 
60 hertz, for dimming to 50 percent or less of the maximum output of 
the ballast, and to operate one or two F34T12 lamps, two F96T12 Energy 
Saver (ES) lamps, or two F96T12 high output (HO) ES lamps are required 
to comply with the energy conservation standards at 10 CFR 
430.32(m)(2).
    The following fluorescent lamp ballasts are exempt from standards: 
(1) A dimming ballast designed and marketed to operate exclusively lamp 
types other than one F34T12, two F34T12, two F96T12/ES, or two 
F96T12HO/ES lamps; (2) a low frequency ballast that is designed and 
marketed to operate T8 diameter lamps; is designed and marketed for use 
in electromagnetic-interference-sensitive-environments only; and is 
shipped by the manufacturer in packages containing 10 or fewer 
ballasts; or (3) a programmed start ballast that operates 4-foot medium 
bipin T8 lamps and delivers on average less than 140 milliamperes (mA) 
to each lamp. 10 CFR 430.32(m)(3).
    In the Framework document, DOE considered extending the scope of 
standards to the following: (1) All dimming ballasts, (2) 4-foot T8 MBP 
programmed start (PS) ballasts with an average current less than 140 
mA, and (3) ballasts that operate on an input voltage of 480 V. DOE did 
not consider extending the scope of standards to low frequency ballasts 
that are designed and marketed to operate T8 diameter lamps and for use 
in electromagnetic-interference-sensitive-environments (EMI-sensitive-
environments) only.
    DOE received several general comments on its consideration of 
extending standards to additional fluorescent lamp ballasts. Philips 
noted that such consideration should account for the declining ballast 
market that is reducing annually by about 20 percent. (Philips, No. 8 
at p. 16) NEMA noted that no new products or categories of ballasts are 
under development. (NEMA, No. 12 at p. 5) However, CA IOUs stated that 
DOE has the opportunity to capture significant energy savings for 
fluorescent lamp ballasts by expanding the scope of standards to 
previously exempted products (e.g., dimming ballasts). CA IOUs 
recommended that DOE evaluate the market and utility for ballasts used 
in EMI environments, ballasts that operate at input voltages of 480 V, 
and low-current PS ballasts to determine if exemptions for these 
products are still warranted. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 1) The Appliance 
Standards Awareness Project (ASAP) similarly stated that DOE should 
consider expanding the scope of standards to include other fluorescent 
lamp ballasts to avoid potential loopholes. (ASAP, No. 7 at p. 3) 
Lutron noted that because light-emitting diode (LED) technology is 
still new and already more efficacious than fluorescent technology, it 
is premature to subject LED drivers to standards. (Lutron, No. 9 at p. 
3)
    DOE conducted an assessment of whether standards should be extended 
to certain fluorescent lamp ballasts that are not currently subject to 
standards. DOE also evaluated whether current exemptions from standards 
should be maintained. DOE notes that this proposed determination 
addresses only fluorescent lamp ballasts and not any other technology 
such as LED drivers. The following sections discuss DOE's consideration 
of extending the scope of standards to additional fluorescent lamp 
ballasts.
a. Dimming Ballasts
    Currently, only certain dimming ballasts are subject to 
standards.\7\ In the Framework document, DOE stated it would consider 
extending standards to all dimming ballasts. Several stakeholders did 
not support DOE considering standards for all dimming ballasts. 
Universal Lighting Technologies (ULT) asserted that energy savings from 
improving the efficiency of dimming ballasts were likely to be smaller 
than energy savings from the use of controls in a space. (ULT, No. 6 at 
p. 2) NEMA stated that its business market survey data indicated that 
dimming ballasts are about 2.29 percent of the linear FLB market. 
(NEMA, No. 12 at pp. 3-4) Philips stated that while the fixed output 
ballast market has declined overtime and dimming ballasts have become a 
larger portion of the overall mix, in absolute numbers, dimming 
ballasts have not increased as indicated by NEMA's market data from the 
past 12 quarters. Further, Philips noted that it will be difficult to 
justify costs to improve efficiency of dimming ballasts over investment 
in solid-state lighting (SSL) development. (Philips, No. 8 at pp. 10-
11) NEMA, Philips, and ULT indicated that the dimming ballast market 
will shrink due to the penetration of solid-state lighting. (ULT,

[[Page 56546]]

No. 6 at p. 2; Philips, No. 8 at pp. 10-11; NEMA, No. 12 at p. 4)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \7\ Fluorescent lamp ballasts manufactured on or after November 
14, 2014, that are designed to operate at an input voltage at or 
between 120 and 277 V and with an input current frequency of 60 
hertz, for dimming to 50 percent or less of the maximum output of 
the ballast, and to operate one or two F34T12 lamps, two F96T12 ES 
lamps, or two F96T12 HO ES lamps. 10 CFR 430.32(m)(2)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Several stakeholders expressed support for DOE analyzing standards 
for all dimming ballasts. ASAP requested that DOE consider standards 
for fluorescent lamp ballasts capable of dimming below 50 percent of 
full output, and to include digitally addressable or networkable 
ballasts. (ASAP, No. 7 at p. 2) ASAP and CA IOUs stated that the 
California Title 24 (CA Title 24 \8\) building code will greatly 
increase sales of ballasts capable of dimming below 50 percent of full 
light output, which currently are not subject to DOE standards. 
Therefore, ASAP and CA IOUs stated that the majority of ballasts 
purchased for new construction projects (as well as some retrofit 
projects according to CA IOUs) in California will not be regulated by 
DOE. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 2; ASAP, No. 7 at p. 2; CA IOUs, Public 
Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 106) ASAP added that it expects that 
these changes in California will occur across the country as new 
dimming ballasts become more widely available. (ASAP, No. 7 at p. 2)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \8\ California Energy Commission. 2013 Building Energy 
Efficiency Standards for Residential and Nonresidential Buildings. 
CEC[hyphen]400[hyphen]2012[hyphen]004-CMF-REV2. Sacramento, CA: CEC, 
2012. Available at http://www.energy.ca.gov/2012publications/CEC-400-2012-004/CEC-400-2012-004-CMF-REV2.pdf.
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    However, ULT and NEMA asserted that PS fixed output ballasts that 
are controlled by occupancy sensors or other control devices can meet 
the requirements of California building codes and ASHRAE standards 
(when adopted) and are already covered by DOE standards. ULT added that 
outside of a specific room (e.g., conference room) a continuously 
dimmed product is not necessary. Further, ULT noted that solid-state 
lighting already comes standard with the ability to continuously dim. 
(ULT, No. 6 at p. 2; NEMA, No. 12 at p. 4)
    DOE appreciates the feedback regarding the shipment trends of 
fluorescent lamp ballasts as a whole and that of dimming ballasts. 
However, DOE has observed that since the 2011 FL Ballast Rule, product 
offerings of dimming ballasts have increased. DOE's review of 
manufacturer catalogs indicates a wide range of dimming ballast 
products are now available for use with several lamp types.\9\ Further, 
DOE has observed a range of efficiencies for dimming ballasts, 
indicating that less efficient products can be improved. Additionally, 
as noted by stakeholders, state and local regulations and building 
codes with increased dimming and/or lighting control requirements 
(e.g., CA Title 24 and ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2016 \10\) will 
continue to support installation of dimming ballasts in the near 
future. Therefore, DOE considers that standards for dimming ballasts 
could result in potential energy savings.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \9\ Specifically, 4-foot MBP lamps, 2-foot U-shaped lamps, 4-
foot MiniBP SO lamps, and 4-foot MiniBP HO lamps.
    \10\ American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-
Conditioning Engineers. ANSI/ASHRAE/IES Standard 90.1-2016--Energy 
Standard for Buildings Except Low-Rise Residential Buildings. 
Atlanta, GA: ASHRAE, 2016.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Lutron and NEMA stated that regulations on dimming ballast 
efficiency may reduce their availability and may limit potential energy 
savings from dimming systems. (Lutron, No. 9 at p. 2; NEMA, No. 12 at 
pp. 3-4) Lutron agreed with extending standards to dimming ballasts if 
the standards accommodate functionality and features of dimming 
ballasts when used in an intelligent light system, noting that these 
systems will result in more energy savings than improving the 
efficiency of dimming ballasts. (Lutron, No. 9 at p. 2)
    In evaluating potential standards, DOE's analysis contemplates that 
performance characteristics (including reliability), features, sizes, 
capacities, and volumes available to the consumer would remain 
available at improved efficiencies of the product.
    In summary, in this analysis DOE considered standards for dimming 
ballasts and presents the results of an analysis of the technological 
feasibility, energy savings, and cost effectiveness of standards for 
dimming ballasts.
b. Ballasts Operating at 480 V
    Currently only fluorescent lamp ballasts designed and marketed to 
operate at nominal input voltages at or between 120 and 277 V are 
subject to standards. 10 CFR 430.32(m)(1)(i), (2)(i). ASAP requested 
that DOE change the scope of current standards to include ballasts that 
operate at 120 V to 480 V. (ASAP, No. 7 at p. 3) However, ULT, General 
Electric (GE), and NEMA stated that the market for ballasts that 
operate at 480 V is very small, and regulation of these products would 
not result in a lot of energy savings. (GE, Public Meeting Transcript, 
No. 5 at p. 38; ULT, No. 6 at p. 3; NEMA, No. 12 at p. 5) Philips 
agreed and noted that current standards cover the vast majority of the 
market by regulating ballasts that operate at input voltages of 120 V 
to 277 V. (Philips, No. 8 at pp. 11-12)
    ASAP and CA IOUs raised concerns that even if the market for these 
products is small, they may become a loophole in industrial 
applications because fluorescent technology has been replacing high-
intensity discharge (HID) lighting in high bay applications that are 
often on 377 V or 480 V circuits. They encouraged DOE to determine if 
this shift to fluorescent technology, particularly in the retrofit 
market, will continue to increase in the future. (ASAP, No. 7 at p. 3; 
CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 10)
    ULT stated that ballasts that operate at 480 V are typically used 
in the industrial applications that function on highly transient power 
(i.e., ``dirty power''). ULT and NEMA stated that these ballasts have 
added circuitry to ensure that they can withstand high transient lines, 
which also makes them expensive. (ULT, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 
at p. 37; ULT, No. 6 at p. 3; NEMA, No. 12 at p. 5) GE added that 
because these ballasts are niche products, manufacturers would not 
expend time and effort to redesign them. (GE, Public Meeting 
Transcript, No. 5 at p. 38) NEMA asserted that if regulated they would 
become obsolete. (NEMA, No. 12 at p. 5)
    When considering extending coverage to additional ballasts, DOE 
considers whether potential energy conservation standards for these 
products would result in significant energy savings. In the 2011 FL 
Ballast Rule, DOE examined the ballast market and found input voltages 
of 120 V to 277 V to be common to the U.S. market. Ballasts outside 
this range were primarily designed for foreign markets, such as 347 V 
ballasts for the Canadian market. 76 FR 70548, 70559. In this analysis, 
based on DOE's review of manufacturer catalogs, fluorescent lamp 
ballasts designed to operate at 120 V to 277 V remain the most common, 
and product offerings for ballasts designed to operate at voltages 
higher than 277 V were minimal. Further, based on manufacturer feedback 
and DOE research, a shift from HID to fluorescent technology will 
likely be minor as SSL technology continues to penetrate the lighting 
market.\11\ Based on DOE's assessment, standards for fluorescent lamp 
ballasts operating at 480 V would not likely result in significant 
energy savings. Hence, DOE is not considering extending the scope of 
standards to fluorescent lamp ballasts designed and marketed to operate 
at voltages higher than 277 V.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \11\ There was no increase in shift from HID technology to 
fluorescent technology in high-bay applications from 2012 to 2014 
according to the DOE Adoption of Light-Emitting Diodes in Common 
Lighting Applications. Available at http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2015/07/f24/led-adoption-report_2015.pdf.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 56547]]

c. Low-Current PS Ballasts
    Currently DOE exempts from standards a PS ballast that operates 4-
foot T8 MBP lamps and delivers on average less than 140 milliamperes 
(mA) to each lamp (i.e., low-current PS ballast). 10 CFR 
430.32(m)(3)(iii). In the Framework document, DOE stated it will 
reevaluate the justification for this exemption. (Framework Document, 
No. 1 at p. 13)
    NEMA, ULT, and GE stated that DOE should continue to exempt low-
current PS ballasts from standards as they are a niche market. (ULT, 
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 37; NEMA, No. 12 at p. 5; GE, 
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 38; Philips, No. 8 at p. 11) ULT 
added that energy savings from standards would be offset by those 
resulting from the low light output. (ULT, Public Meeting Transcript, 
No. 5 at pp. 35-36)
    ASAP raised concerns that low-current PS ballasts may become a 
loophole in the future as they could serve as a low-cost option in 
markets for inefficient equipment. (ASAP, Public Meeting Transcript, 
No. 5 at p. 33) ULT responded that to operate at a low ballast factor, 
a ballast must have an open current voltage, flicker control, as well 
as cathodes, all of which add cost to such products. (ULT, Public 
Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 35-36)
    Further, NEMA and ULT stated that if regulated, these products 
would not comply with DOE efficiency standards and become obsolete as 
their low volume would not warrant redesign, eliminating a unique 
utility. (NEMA, No. 12 at p. 5; ULT, No. 6 at p. 3) ASAP and CA IOUs 
stated that the unique utility of low-current PS ballasts is unclear. 
(ASAP, No. 7 at p. 3; CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 10) ASAP stated that there 
are multiple more-efficient lamp-and-ballast combinations available on 
the market that can provide light output comparable to low-current PS 
ballast systems. (ASAP, No. 7 at p. 3) CA IOUs suggested alternatives 
such as using reduced-wattage lamps or fewer lamps and/or fixtures as 
efficient replacements. However, CA IOUs stated that if DOE does find 
the low-current PS ballasts have a unique utility, DOE should ensure 
that they are operating as efficiently as possible. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at 
p. 10)
    During the 2011 FL Ballast Rule, DOE determined that ballasts 
designed to operate 4-foot T8 MPB lamps are required to use some level 
of cathode power when operating lamps at currents less than 155 mA to 
maintain lamp life. Through testing, DOE learned the ballast factor of 
these ballasts was similar to or less than 0.7, offering a unique 
utility of low light output. Such ballasts also offered energy savings 
from their low power levels and use with occupancy sensors. However, 
DOE concluded that, because BLE decreases as current is decreased, none 
of the PS ballasts tested with an average current of less than 140 mA 
were able to meet the maximum efficiency levels analyzed in the PS 
product class. Therefore, DOE exempted these low-current PS ballasts 
from standards. 76 FR 70548, 70558.
    In this analysis, DOE evaluated whether DOE should continue to 
maintain the exemption of low-current PS ballasts. DOE has tentatively 
determined that alternative options such as using PS ballasts with 
operating current at 140 mA or higher, paired with reduced-wattage 
lamps or decreasing the number of lamps in the system could provide low 
light output levels comparable to those attained using low-current PS 
ballasts. DOE identified lamp-and-ballast replacements that maintained 
system light output within 10 percent of a lamp-and-ballast system 
using a low-current PS ballast and saved energy.
    Because there are reasonable alternatives to providing the low 
light output utility offered by low-current PS ballasts, the low-light 
feature provided may no longer be unique to these products as when DOE 
evaluated them for the 2011 Ballast Rule. As such, DOE included in its 
current analysis potential standards for PS ballasts that operate 4-
foot T8 MBP lamps and deliver on average less than 140 mA to each lamp.
d. Low Frequency EMI Ballasts
    Currently DOE exempts low frequency ballasts designed and marketed 
to operate T8 diameter lamps for use in EMI environments only (``low 
frequency EMI ballasts''). They must be shipped by the manufacturer in 
packages containing 10 or fewer ballasts. 10 CFR 430.32(m)(3)(ii) For 
applications in which EMI has been or is expected to pose safety 
concerns, magnetic ballasts that operate at low frequency are typically 
recommended. Because these EMI-related safety concerns still exist, in 
the Framework document, DOE stated it did not plan to remove this 
exemption.
    NEMA, GE, ULT, and Philips agreed that low frequency EMI ballasts 
should not be subject to standards. (ULT, No. 6 at p. 3; Philips, No. 8 
at p. 12; NEMA, No. 12 at p. 5; GE, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at 
p. 43) GE added that these are a low volume, niche product and the best 
solution for EMI-sensitive environments. (GE, Public Meeting 
Transcript, No. 5 at p. 43) ASAP stated that the exemption of these 
ballasts made sense to the extent that EMI from technology continues to 
be a concern. (ASAP, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 42-43)
    In the 2011 FL Ballast Rule, DOE conducted research and interviews 
with FLB and fixture manufacturers to identify several applications as 
potentially sensitive to EMI. Applications potentially sensitive to EMI 
include but are not limited to medical operating room telemetry or life 
support systems, airport control systems, electronic test equipment, 
radio communication devices, radio recording studios, correctional 
facilities, clean rooms, facilities with low signal-to-noise ratios, 
and aircraft hangars or other buildings with predominantly metal 
construction. 76 FR 70548, 70557. In this analysis, DOE tentatively 
finds that EMI from fluorescent lamp ballasts continues to be a safety 
concern.
    ASAP asked for more information regarding the definition of EMI-
sensitive environments, Federal Communications Commission's (FCC's) 
authority on this issue, and the method of sales and shipment to 
restrict leakage of EMI-labeled product into other applications. (ASAP, 
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 42-43) FCC in 47 CFR part 18 
regulates industrial, scientific, and medical (ISM) equipment that 
emits electromagnetic energy on frequencies within the radio frequency 
spectrum in order to prevent harmful interference to authorized radio 
communication services. 47 CFR 18.101. Falling under the category of 
radio frequency lighting devices, fluorescent lamp ballasts would be 
subject to certain conduction limits. 47 CFR 18.307(c). (The Department 
of Defense (DoD) also has its own EMI requirements.\12\) The FCC should 
be consulted for further information on regulating products that emit 
electromagnetic energy.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \12\ The DoD MIL-STD-461G section CE102 applies to conducted 
emissions from power leads between 10 kilohertz (kHz) and 10 
megahertz (MHz) while the standards in section RE102 apply to 
radiated emissions between 10 kHz and 18 gigahertz (GHz). These 
standards establish ``interface and associated verification 
requirements for the control of the EMI emission and susceptibility 
characteristics of electronic, electrical, and electromechanical 
equipment and subsystems designed or procured for use by activities 
and agencies of the Department of Defense (DoD).''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ASAP stated DOE should examine the full range of existing low EMI, 
energy efficient fluorescent lamp technology options. (ASAP, No. 7 at 
p. 4) CA IOUs stated instead of magnetic ballasts designed and labeled 
specifically for use in EMI-sensitive environments,

[[Page 56548]]

consumers can use ``hybrid'' magnetic/electronic ballasts and remote-
mounted electronic ballasts, as well as LED light sources. CA IOUs 
encouraged DOE to reconsider the need for these less efficient products 
when alternatives are available. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 10)
    The source of EMI in a fluorescent lamp-and-ballast system consists 
mainly of switching components (transistors) in the ballast and the 
fluorescent lamp and lead wires. In high-frequency electronic ballasts, 
switching components create rapidly changing electric fields eventually 
resulting in interference with other circuits on the line. Low-
frequency magnetic ballasts do not have switching components, 
dramatically reducing EMI generation. Additionally, lamp and lead wires 
create a loop that in the presence of a rapidly switching alternating 
current (AC) waveform creates an antenna for radiated EMI. This 
phenomenon is more pronounced with electronic ballasts compared to 
magnetic ballasts. For these reasons, magnetic ballasts are typically 
recommended for use in EMI-sensitive environments.
    In the 2011 FL Ballast Rule, DOE examined alternative options such 
as use of external EMI filters with electronic ballasts as well as 
shielding the ballast with conductive material to mitigate the effects. 
However, DOE could not confirm that such methods would definitely 
prevent issues related to EMI. In this analysis, DOE again researched 
alternative options. In general, DOE found limited product offerings 
for hybrid magnetic/electronic ballasts and remote-mounted electronic 
ballasts. DOE's research indicated that the hybrid magnetic/electronic 
ballasts would not meet existing efficiency standards. Further remote-
mounted electronic ballasts would require separate fixtures for the 
lamp and for the ballast and require installation of additional 
components such as EMI shielding on the leads and ferrite clamp on the 
output wires to safeguard against EMI issues.\13\ While the typical LED 
systems in which AC power is converted to DC would cause the same EMI 
issues as electronic ballasts, direct DC-powered LED systems do have 
the potential to mitigate EMI issues. However, these also would require 
a fixture change. Further, because these products are not designed 
specifically for EMI-sensitive applications, it is not clear that they 
adequately mitigate the effects of EMI.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \13\ Philips states remote mounting impacts EMI behavior and 
additional measures may be necessary to reduce EMI:
    http://images.philips.com/is/content/PhilipsConsumer/PDFDownloads/United%20States/ODL20160330_001_UPD_en_US_PAd-1615DG_Advance_Xitanium_Indoor_Driver_20160324.pdf#page=5.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ASAP stated that because residential ballasts are subject to less 
stringent energy efficiency standards than commercial ballasts due to 
being subject to more stringent FCC EMI requirements, DOE should at 
least subject the low frequency EMI ballasts to the current residential 
FLB energy efficiency standards. (ASAP, No. 7 at p. 4)
    DOE's evaluation indicates that magnetic ballasts continue to not 
meet existing standards, including those for residential ballasts.
    ASAP also stated that DOE should evaluate if it is necessary to 
further limit the language ``designed, labeled, and marketed for use in 
EMI-sensitive environments only'' used to specify the exemption as it 
creates a significant opportunity for low EMI, low price, and energy 
inefficient ballasts to gain significant market share. ASAP encouraged 
DOE to collect sales data on ballasts specified as low EMI and intended 
for commercial use. (ASAP, No. 7 at pp. 3-4; ASAP, Public Meeting 
Transcript, No. 5 at p. 43) Philips stated that EMI environments are 
very specific (e.g., nuclear power plants, military bases) and because 
of the low volume, these ballasts are more expensive. Therefore, it is 
unlikely that they would start replacing electronic ballasts or LED 
technology with low frequency EMI ballasts. (Philips, Public Meeting 
Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 43-44)
    DOE currently describes the exemption as ``A low frequency ballast 
that is designed and marketed to operate T8 diameter lamps; is designed 
and marketed for use in EMI environments only; and is shipped by the 
manufacturer in packages containing 10 or fewer ballasts.'' 10 CFR 
430.32(m)(3)(ii) DOE finds that because the definition requires the 
application to be stated in all publicly available documents and caps 
the amount of ballasts sold in one package, it is a sufficient 
deterrent to potential unintended use of these ballasts. Further, based 
on a review of manufacturer catalogs, DOE did not find a substantial 
number of magnetic ballasts designed and marketed for use in EMI-
sensitive environments only, which might have indicated an increasing 
market share.
    Because magnetic ballasts are the only option that can definitively 
address safety concerns regarding EMI and they do not meet existing 
standards, DOE is not considering removing the current exemption for 
low frequency EMI-sensitive ballasts.
2. Metric
a. Active Mode Energy Consumption
    Current energy conservation standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts 
are applicable to active mode energy use and are based on BLE. This 
metric is a ratio of the power provided by the ballast to the lamp 
divided by the input power to the ballast. The metric also includes an 
adjustment factor to account for the reduced system efficacy associated 
with operation at low-frequency (i.e., 60 Hertz). DOE continues to use 
the BLE metric in this proposed determination to assess active mode 
energy use.
    DOE received comments recommending it adopt a weighted BLE metric 
for dimming ballasts. CA IOUs stated that they had supported California 
Energy Commission (CEC) in developing Title 20 state appliance energy 
efficiency standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts and strongly 
suggested DOE take this analysis into consideration in this effort. (CA 
IOUs, No. 10 at p. 2) CA IOUs stated that dimming ballasts have a large 
potential for energy savings because not all products dim the same way, 
and prior to the CEC rule regarding dimming ballasts, there was no 
description of ballast performance at dimmed settings. (CA IOUs, Public 
Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 72-73)
    Due to this lack of data, CA IOUs tested dimming ballasts to 
understand performance below full light output using the DOE's test 
procedure for fixed output ballasts. (These data are publicly available 
in CEC's rulemaking docket: #14-AAER-1.) Specifically, CA IOUs tested 
34 T8 dimming ballasts that operate from one lamp up to four lamps, 
which were selected from 180 T8 dimming ballasts listed by the 
Consortium for Energy Efficiency (CEE) as qualifying commercial 
lighting products. In addition they tested seven T5 dimming ballasts 
that operate two lamps. CA IOUs stated that this testing, while not 
comprehensive of the full market, was a good starting point. CA IOUs 
measured the performance of dimming ballasts at 100 percent full output 
and then at input powers decreasing by 5 percent increments until 
reaching zero light output using DOE's current test procedure. Based on 
these data, CA IOUs noted that ballasts that have the same efficiency 
at full light output may not perform the same at lower light output 
levels. For instance, two ballasts may have the same performance at 
full light output, but may have a 3-5 W difference in power consumption 
at 50 percent of full output. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at pp. 2-3, 8;

[[Page 56549]]

CA IOUs, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 17, 54)
    Because of this difference in efficiency at lower light outputs, CA 
IOUs stated that CEC has proposed standards for dimming fluorescent 
lamp ballasts based on weighting the ballast efficiency measurements at 
100 percent, 80 percent, and 50 percent of full arc power in order to 
generate one BLE value. CA IOUs stated that 80 percent is a typical 
setting when tuning light and a built-in assumption for savings in 
certain utility lighting programs, and 50 percent is a representative 
operating setting for bi-level dimming ballasts. CA IOUs also stated 
that these levels were established after consulting with major FLB 
manufacturers and stakeholders who agreed that accurate and repeatable 
measurements could be taken at each of those operating levels. CA IOUs 
stated that DOE consider using these two points but supported 
additional test points below 50 percent of full light output and 
recommended DOE conduct further analysis on the feasibility of 
measurements at lower output levels. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at pp. 2-3; CA 
IOUs, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 17, 54) ASAP agreed with 
CA IOUs that the test procedure and metric should be amended to measure 
BLE at partial light output for dimming ballasts, specifically testing 
at 80 and 50 percent of full light output in addition to 100 percent. 
(ASAP, No. 7 at pp. 2-3)
    The efficiency of a dimming ballast may differ at different light 
outputs, and the efficiency at full light output may not reflect the 
efficiency at which the ballast always performs in application. 
However, DOE notes several issues with the accuracy and consistency in 
determining the performance of dimming ballasts using a weighted metric 
approach. First, the lack of conclusive data makes it difficult to 
determine the appropriate weightings to assign to reduced light output 
levels to reflect the most common use of dimming ballasts. For example, 
the weightings proposed by CEC are based on approximate average energy 
savings of dimming ballasts determined from a study on energy savings 
from institutional tuning including the use of dimming ballasts and 
switches (i.e., light levels adjusted based on location-specific needs 
or building policies).\14\ This study determines energy savings for one 
scenario of dimming ballast usage and is not necessarily representative 
of the common application nor actual operating hours of these products.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \14\ Williams, Alison, Barbara Atkinson, Karina Garbesi, and 
Francis Rubinstein. A Meta-Analysis of Energy Savings from Lighting 
Controls in Commercial Buildings. Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley 
National Laboratory. September 2011.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Second, as data provided by CA IOUs show, there is no consistent 
trend between efficiency and light output at lower levels across 
products. Manufacturers apply a range of acceptable cathode powers at 
lower currents and choose to do so through various techniques (i.e., 
step, gradual) resulting in varied performance at lower light output 
levels. The range of acceptable cathode powers for T8 fluorescent 
dimming systems is provided by NEMA LL 9,\15\ and both ballast and lamp 
manufacturers design their products accordingly. Hence, the cathode 
power required by a lamp may vary by lamp manufacturer. A manufacturer 
who produces both ballasts and lamps may design both products to 
provide/use the minimum amount of cathode heat. However, a manufacturer 
who produces only ballasts may design their product to provide the 
maximum amount of cathode heat so that it can operate all lamps 
available on the market. DOE finds that it is important to allow for 
this flexibility in designing ballasts and a metric should not favor 
one approach over another.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \15\ NEMA LL 9-2011, Dimming of T8 Fluorescent Lighting Systems 
(approved April 12, 2011).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Hence, it is unclear if a weighted BLE metric would be an accurate 
representation of dimming ballasts in application or provide an 
approach for appropriately measuring performance across dimming 
products. Therefore, DOE evaluates the efficiency of dimming ballasts 
as the BLE at full light output, which reflects the most energy 
consumptive state. Measuring BLE at full light output ensures the 
accuracy of measured values and provides a consistent basis for 
comparing efficiencies across fluorescent lamp ballasts. DOE seeks 
comments on its evaluation of the efficiency of dimming ballasts as BLE 
at full light output. See section VII.C for a list of issues on which 
DOE seeks comment.
    For dimming ballasts, Philips recommended a ballast efficiency 
metric that would include cathode power as opposed to the BLE metric 
which does not. Philips explained that to dim light output the lamp 
power and thereby cathode power is reduced. To prevent the resulting 
possibility of shortening lamp life and unstable lamp operation, most 
dimming ballasts utilize added cathode power in dimming mode. Philips 
presented an example of a 2L T8 MBP 32 W ballast showing that at full 
light output BLE and ballast efficiency are the same but at lower light 
output levels, ballast efficiency is higher because it includes total 
lamp arc power plus cathode power while BLE includes total lamp arc 
power. Philips concluded that using the BLE metric at lower light 
output levels would underrepresent the efficiency of the ballast. 
(Philips, No. 8 at pp. 16-29) Therefore, Philips asserted and NEMA 
agreed that including cathode power in the metric is important because 
it provides utility to dimming ballasts at lower light output levels. 
(Philips, No. 8 at pp. 16-29; NEMA, No. 12 at p. 7) Philips noted that 
measuring ballast efficiency would require more measurements, but 
testing time could be reduced with the use of a multiport power 
analyzer. (Philips, No. 8 at pp. 16-29)
    Because DOE is using a metric of BLE measured at full light output 
for dimming ballasts, the exclusion of cathode power from this 
measurement would not underrepresent the efficiency of dimming ballasts 
operating at lower light output levels. DOE is aware that the BLE 
metric represents cathode power as a loss and that ballasts that use 
cathode power will therefore appear less efficient than ballasts that 
do not. DOE accounts for this potential difference in efficiency by 
establishing separate product classes based on starting method. 10 CFR 
430.32(m)(1)(ii)(B).
    Philips also commented that the use of dimming ballasts is 
different than fixed output ballasts because they are always part of a 
lighting control system, whether or not it is a simple control. Philips 
stated that if dimming ballasts are required to use less energy, then 
to meet such requirements manufacturers will move control and 
communications designs from within the ballast to a separate extender 
box. Hence, while the ballast may be more efficient, the total 
efficiency of the system may not increase. Therefore, Philips suggested 
that DOE consider the entire system as opposed to only the ballast 
efficiency in its analysis. (Philips, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 
at p. 119)
    The scope of this proposed determination is fluorescent lamp 
ballasts and not an entire fluorescent lighting system. DOE finds that 
BLE adequately captures the efficiency of all fluorescent lamp 
ballasts. DOE does analyze energy use of the lamp-and-ballast system 
and uses this assessment of system energy use in its downstream 
analyses (i.e., LCC, NIA, etc.).
    CA IOUs stated that it is likely that their analysis of 
efficiencies of dimming ballasts in the dimming range below 140 mA will 
also be useful in understanding the cathode heating needs and 
determining appropriate standard levels

[[Page 56550]]

for fixed-output, low current ballasts. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 10)
    DOE appreciates the data provided by CA IOUs. As noted, DOE 
evaluates all fluorescent lamp ballasts in this analysis based on BLE 
measured at full light output.
b. Standby Mode Energy Consumption
    EPCA requires energy conservation standards adopted for a covered 
product after July 1, 2010, to address standby mode and off mode energy 
use. (42 U.S.C. 6295(gg)(3)) EPCA defines active mode as the condition 
in which an energy-using piece of equipment is connected to a main 
power source, has been activated, and provides one or more main 
functions. (42 U.S.C. 6295)(gg)(1)(A)(i)) Standby mode is defined as 
the condition in which an energy-using piece of equipment is connected 
to a main power source and offers one or more of the following user-
oriented or protective functions: Facilitating the activation or 
deactivation of other functions (including active mode) by remote 
switch (including remote control), internal sensor, or timer; or 
providing continuous functions, including information or status 
displays (including clocks) or sensor-based functions. (42 U.S.C. 
6295)(gg)(1)(A)(iii)) Off mode is defined as the condition in which an 
energy-using piece of equipment is connected to a main power source, 
and is not providing any standby or active mode function. (42 U.S.C. 
6295)(gg)(1)(A)(ii))
    In the 2009 Standby Test Procedure, DOE determined that fluorescent 
lamp ballasts do not exhibit off mode energy use. In addition, DOE 
stated that the only ballasts subject to standby mode power 
measurements would be those that incorporate some electronic circuit 
enabling the ballast to communicate with and be part of a lighting 
control system (e.g., a digitally addressable lighting interface, 
DALI). 74 FR 54445, 54448.
    Based on DOE's characterization of ballasts capable of operating in 
standby mode in the 2009 Standby Test Procedure, NEMA and Philips 
concluded that DOE considers ballasts capable of operating in standby 
mode as digitally controlled ballasts, such as DALI. (NEMA, No. 12 at 
p. 3; Philips, No. 8 at pp. 5-6) ULT and NEMA stated that DALI ballasts 
are mostly used in conference rooms for atmospheric lighting and are 
shrinking in market size. They stated that the most common linear 
fluorescent lamp ballasts are operated as discrete devices from a 
centralized control panel that sends on/off and dimming commands and do 
not operate in standby mode. Further, ULT and NEMA asserted that 99 
percent of the ballasts in the scope of this analysis do not operate in 
standby mode. (ULT, No. 6 at p. 2; NEMA, No. 12 at pp. 2-3) Lutron 
noted that DALI is not the only communication protocol used in ballasts 
capable of standby mode power consumption. (Lutron, Public Meeting 
Transcript, No. 5 at p. 49)
    ASAP stated DOE should include digitally addressable or networkable 
ballasts and consider the associated standby losses of these products. 
ASAP expected dimming ballasts with digital control will be part of 
luminaire level lighting control, which involves independently 
controlling each luminaire in a space through integrated, programmable, 
network sensors. ASAP added that in such scenarios while the ballast 
may reduce active mode power consumption, it may also continue to 
consume power when switched ``off'' and not emitting light. Therefore, 
ASAP recommended that DOE should consider both standby losses and the 
benefits of increased controllability in its consideration of coverage 
for additional dimming ballasts. ASAP advised DOE to develop a better 
definition for ``network standby.'' (ASAP, No. 7 at p. 2) Additionally, 
CA IOUs recommended that DOE amend its standby mode test procedure to 
specify that a communications network (if applicable) should be 
connected to the ballast during testing to capture energy use in 
``network standby.'' CA IOUs stated that this is important because 
ballasts will likely be consuming additional energy while actively 
``listening'' for commands when connected to a communications network. 
(CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 3)
    NEMA stated that it is not easy to define a power consumption 
standard for a networked product because the standby and full mode 
power consumptions will vary based on the particular design and extent 
of functionality. (NEMA, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 49-50) 
NEEA agreed with NEMA but noted that DOE would likely have to look at 
network standby if it decides to regulate dimming ballasts. (NEEA, 
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 50) Philips stated that DOE's 
determination of ballasts capable of operating in standby mode prevents 
conflict with other modes of operation defined in standards such as IEC 
62301, which distinguishes between standby mode power and network mode 
power. (Philips, No. 8 at pp. 5-7) Philips also recommended that DOE 
develop a standby mode power test method that accounts for the wide 
range of input voltages. (Philips, No. 8 at p. 8)
    EPCA requires DOE to address the standby mode consumption of a 
product. (42 U.S.C. 6295(gg)(3)) Based on DOE's definition of standby 
mode, DOE continues to consider a ballast is in standby mode if it has 
some electronic circuit enabling the ballast to communicate with and be 
part of a lighting control system and if at zero light output the 
ballast is standing by, connected to a main power source without being 
disconnected by an on/off switch or other type of relay. 74 FR 54445, 
54448. Therefore, standby mode energy consumption of a ballast 
encompasses any communication by the ballast at zero light output. DOE 
finds that additional definitions to capture communication through 
specific types of protocols or systems (i.e., network) are not 
necessary.
    CA IOUs stated standby mode power constitutes a significant portion 
of the overall dimming ballast annual energy use and noted that CEC 
proposed a separate standard for standby mode power consumption for 
dimming ballasts. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 4) CA IOUs reported that 
testing done according to DOE's test procedure showed dimming ballasts 
to have standby mode power consumption ranging from 0.3 to 1.9 W. (CA 
IOUs, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 15-16) ASAP supported CA 
IOUs comments recommending testing of standby mode energy consumption 
of ballasts similar to that proposed by CEC. (ASAP, No. 7 at p. 3)
    NEMA and Philips noted that standby power energy use in the U.S. 
lighting industry varies greatly due to the wide range of functionality 
provided by digital ballasts. (NEMA, No. 12 at p. 3; Philips, No. 8 at 
p. 8) NEMA cautioned against overly restrictive limits on standby 
power, as they could reduce consumer-demanded functionality and DOE 
should note that lighting may become the point of connection for smart 
products. (NEMA, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 49-50; NEMA, 
No. 12 at p. 3)
    DOE tentatively finds in this analysis that a separate standard for 
standby power is unnecessary. Currently FLB standards for active mode 
are based on BLE, which is a ratio of the power provided by the ballast 
to the lamp divided by the input power to the ballast. DOE finds that 
for ballasts that are capable of standby mode operation, the 
measurement of input power for BLE in active mode would include standby 
mode power. Thus, DOE finds that energy conservation standards based on 
measuring the BLE of the

[[Page 56551]]

ballast in active mode also capture the energy consumption in standby 
mode, where applicable. Further, DOE's analysis of standards for 
fluorescent lamp ballasts includes consideration of the continued 
availability of products that provide consumer utility presently 
provided.
3. Technology Options
    In the Framework document, DOE identified several technology 
options that would be expected to improve the efficiency of fluorescent 
lamp ballasts, as measured by the DOE test procedure. To develop a list 
of technology options, DOE reviewed manufacturer catalogs, recent trade 
publications and technical journals, and consulted with technical 
experts. Specifically, DOE identified technology options identified in 
the 2011 FL Ballast Rule: magnetic FLB design, electronic FLB design, 
varying lamp diameter, higher grade components, and improved circuit 
design. In addition, DOE considered the following improved components 
as technology options:
     Increasing the number of steel laminations to lower core 
losses,
     Using optimized-gauge copper to increase the conductor 
cross section to reduce winding losses,
     Using wire with multiple smaller coils instead of one 
larger coil to increase the number of turns of wire, and
     Using shape-optimized winding to reduce the proximity 
effect losses.
    In the Framework document, DOE requested comments on technology 
options for improving the BLE of fluorescent lamp ballasts. NEMA 
pointed out that core losses in the transformers and inductors used in 
electronic ballasts can be minimized by using low-loss ferrite 
materials. (NEMA, No. 12 at p. 6) In this analysis, DOE also considered 
the option of using low-loss ferrite materials to reduce the proximity 
effect.
    CA IOUs recommended that DOE analyze the technology options for 
improving efficiency listed in the 2011 FL Ballast Rule, including 
improved components such as magnetics, diodes, capacitors, and 
transistors, as well as improved circuit design. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 
5)
    Philips stated that the only way to increase efficiency would be to 
move to a different technology. ULT, Philips, and GE added that they 
and the industry are focusing on solid-state lighting, specifically 
LED. (ULT, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 45-46; Philips, 
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 58; GE, Public Meeting 
Transcript, No. 5 at p. 67) Further, NEMA, GE, Philips, and ULT 
commented that fluorescent lamp ballasts are already at or close to 
their maximum achievable efficiency, and that the currently regulated 
products have no margin to improve efficiency. (NEMA, Public Meeting 
Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 9-11; GE, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at 
p. 67; Philips, No. 8 at pp. 13-14; ULT, No. 6 at p. 5) NEMA, GE, and 
ULT asserted that the last rulemaking compressed the available levels 
of efficiency such that the current market only consists of a maximum 
and a minimum level, with very little room for differentiation among 
manufacturers. (NEMA, No. 12 at p. 7; GE, Public Meeting Transcript, 
No. 5 at p. 67; ULT, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 45-46) 
Philips and ULT added that technology options such as transistors with 
reduced resistance, lowering impedance value on capacitors, increasing 
steel laminations, reducing winding resistance, increasing the turns of 
wire, and reducing proximity effect losses are already incorporated in 
current products. (Philips, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 58; 
ULT, No. 6 at p. 5) Lutron stated DOE should assume that all the 
dimming ballasts that are going to be available after any rule becomes 
effective are already on the market. (Lutron, Public Meeting 
Transcript, No. 5 at p. 104) Philips and GE noted that because 
fluorescent technology is on the decline, there are no new investments 
in fluorescent lamp ballasts. (Philips, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 
5 at p. 58; GE, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 67)
    Based on DOE's review of the product offerings and their 
efficiencies in manufacturer catalogs and DOE's Compliance 
Certification Management System (CCMS) database, there are ballasts on 
the market at multiple levels of efficiencies. DOE finds that the 
technology options identified, individually and/or in combination, are 
being utilized to improve the efficiency of products. Therefore, DOE 
continues to consider these technology options as a means to improve 
the efficiency of fluorescent lamp ballasts.
    Based on their test data for dimming ballasts, CA IOUs asserted 
that cathode cutout is a major efficiency improvement opportunity for 
dimming ballasts and is currently employed by multiple dimming ballast 
manufacturers. CA IOUs compared two 3-lamp dimming ballasts, one that 
saved energy by using less than the allowable cathode power at lower 
currents and cutout cathode power at higher currents, and another that 
saved less energy by employing a continuous maximum amount of allowable 
cathode power. (CA IOUs, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 57; CA 
IOUs, No. 10 at pp. 5-7)
    NEMA commented that there are several patents on how to employ 
cathode cutout technology and urged DOE to exercise caution not to 
inadvertently favor one method over another. (NEMA, Public Meeting 
Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 58-59) CA IOUs responded that based on 
conservative assumptions for hot cathode resistance per the maximum 
voltage allowance at lower currents defined by NEMA LL 9-2011, any 
ballast can use anywhere from 0 up to 5.6 W per lamp of cathode power 
at lower currents. CA IOUs stated that while not all manufacturers may 
have access to every piece of technology, this range provided enough 
space for achieving significant energy savings. CA IOUs added that 
based on their analysis for CEC's proposed standards for dimming 
ballasts, all major manufacturers had products meeting standards, and 
they determined that the necessary technology is not being limited to 
one or two manufacturers due to intellectual property issues. (CA IOUs, 
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 59-61; CA IOUs, No. 10 at pp. 
5-7)
    DOE agrees that cathode cutout can improve ballast efficiency and 
considered it as a technology option in this analysis. Information 
obtained in manufacturer interviews indicated that patents may apply to 
certain methods of achieving cathode cutout, but achievement of the 
highest levels of efficiency analyzed in this proposed determination 
did not require use of technologies subject to a patent.
    CA IOUs stipulated that improved components and other circuit 
design approaches are also viable methods for improving dimming ballast 
efficiency, and encouraged DOE to explore the full range of technology 
options available to manufacturers. (CA IOUs, Public Meeting 
Transcript, No. 5 at p. 57; CA IOUs, No. 10 at pp. 5-7)
    DOE considers the full range of technology options identified, for 
both dimming and fixed-output ballasts. DOE notes it considers the same 
metric (i.e., BLE at full light output) for dimming ballasts as it does 
for fixed-output ballasts (see section IV.A.2 for further details).
    NEMA commented that steel laminations comprise a very small 
percentage of magnetics in an electronic ballast and are used for line 
frequency ballasts. Further, they are typically used for dedicated line 
voltage such as 120 V AC. (NEMA, No. 12 at p. 6) Philips stated that 
use of amorphous steel doesn't provide for an effective work

[[Page 56552]]

product and it will continue to use it only for magnetic ballasts. 
(Philips, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 64)
    DOE determined that using laminated sheets of steel to create the 
core of the inductor may not minimize losses in ballasts that operate 
at high frequencies. Therefore, because the ballasts analyzed in this 
proposed determination are electronic ballasts and operate at high 
frequencies, DOE did not consider laminated sheets of amorphous steel 
or increasing the number of steel laminations to lower core losses as 
technology options.
    DOE agrees that the use of low-loss ferrite materials can minimize 
losses in transformers and inductors used in ballasts. Ferrite is 
already widely used in electronic ballasts. However, DOE determined 
that ferrite can be optimized to reduce losses by changing the percent 
composition from three principal oxides: Manganese oxide, zinc oxide, 
and iron (III) oxide. If the ideal amounts of each oxide are selected, 
the ferrite can have lower losses.\16\ For example, manganese-zinc 
ferrite is a common solid core material selected for its size 
efficiency and can be optimized for high frequencies, up to 2 MHz.\17\ 
Hence, in this analysis, DOE is including use of low-loss ferrite 
materials to create the core of the inductor in the transformer of the 
ballast as a technology option to increase ballast efficiency.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \16\ Standard Recommendations: Soft Ferrite Cores, A User's 
Guide. 2011.
    \17\ McLyman, C. Transformer and Inductor Design Handbook. 2011. 
Boca Raton, FL: CRC Press.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    NEMA also added that the technology option, as described by DOE, 
which involves using wire with multiple smaller coils instead of one 
larger coil is poorly defined. They indicated that this technology 
option should refer to litz wire and added that most electronic ballast 
manufacturers already use litz wire where appropriate. (NEMA, No. 12 at 
p. 6)
    The technology option of using wire with multiple smaller coils 
(instead of the technology option of using one larger coil to increase 
the number of turns of wire) describes a way to increase the inductance 
of a coil and therefore the induced voltage of the transformer. The 
magnitude of the induced voltage is based on the magnetic field in the 
transformer (which is based on the inductance), the frequency of 
operation, number of turns of the coil, and the cross sectional area of 
the transformer. For the same length of wire, a series of smaller coils 
will have a larger number of turns than one coil that has a core with a 
large cross sectional area. The additional number of turns of the wire 
will increase the induced voltage, and thereby minimize losses from the 
transformer. Provided that the number of turns is increased more than 
the cross sectional area is reduced, the series of smaller coils would 
have fewer losses than one large coil. This technology option is 
different from the use of litz wire. Litz wire refers to a bundle of 
thin insulated wires braided together such that the same sides of the 
two wires are not interacting with one another the entire time, thereby 
minimizing the magnetic effects between wires that negatively affect 
current flow. In this analysis DOE continues to consider both use of 
multiple smaller coils and litz wire as technology options to increase 
the efficiency of the ballast.
    In summary, for this analysis, DOE considers the technology options 
shown in Table IV.1. Detailed descriptions of these technology options 
can be found in chapter 3 of the NOPD TSD.

                             Table IV.1--Fluorescent Lamp Ballast Technology Options
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Technology option                                           Description
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Electronic Ballast.............................  Use an electronic ballast design.
Improved Components:
    Transformers/Inductors.....................  Use litz wire to reduce winding losses.
                                                 Use wire with multiple smaller coils instead of one larger coil
                                                  to increase the number of turns of wire.
                                                 Use optimized-gauge copper to increase the conductor cross
                                                  section to reduce winding losses.
                                                 Use shape-optimized winding to reduce the proximity effect
                                                  losses.
                                                 Use low-loss ferrite materials to create the core of the
                                                  inductor.
    Diodes.....................................  Use diodes with a lower voltage drop.
    Capacitors.................................  Use capacitors with a lower effective series resistance.
    Transistors................................  Use transistors with low drain-to-source resistance.
Improved Circuit Design:
    Cathode Cutout or Cutback..................  Remove or reduce cathode/filament heating after lamp has
                                                  started.
    Integrated Circuits........................  Substitute discrete components with an integrated circuit.
    Starting Method............................  Use of instant start (IS) starting method instead of a rapid
                                                  start (RS) starting method.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

4. Screening Analysis
    DOE uses the following four screening criteria to determine which 
technology options are suitable for further consideration in an energy 
conservation standards rulemaking:
    (1) Technological feasibility. Technologies that are not 
incorporated in commercial products or in working prototypes will not 
be considered further.
    (2) Practicability to manufacture, install, and service. If it is 
determined that mass production and reliable installation and servicing 
of a technology in commercial products could not be achieved on the 
scale necessary to serve the relevant market at the time of the 
projected compliance date of the standard, then that technology will 
not be considered further.
    (3) Impacts on product utility or product availability. If it is 
determined that a technology would have significant adverse impact on 
the utility of the product to significant subgroups of consumers or 
would result in the unavailability of any covered product type with 
performance characteristics (including reliability), features, sizes, 
capacities, and volumes that are substantially the same as products 
generally available in the United States at the time, it will not be 
considered further.
    (4) Adverse impacts on health or safety. If it is determined that a 
technology would have significant adverse impacts on health or safety, 
it will not be considered further.

10 CFR part 430, subpart C, appendix A, 4(a)(4) and 5(b)
    In summary, if DOE determines that a technology, or a combination 
of technologies, fails to meet one or more of the listed four criteria, 
it will be excluded from further consideration in

[[Page 56553]]

the engineering analysis. Additionally, it is DOE policy not to include 
in its analysis any proprietary technology that is a unique pathway to 
achieving a certain efficiency level.
    DOE received some general comments regarding the screening 
methodology and its application to fluorescent lamp ballasts. Philips 
commented that occasionally the criterion of manufacturing practicality 
has been slanted toward being theoretically possible rather than 
economically justifiable for a ballast manufacturer and consumer. 
Philips stated that DOE should be cognizant of the costs associated 
with design-in, approbation, marketing, and implementation of that new, 
revised design into luminaires and that it might not have a positive 
business case. (Philips, No. 8 at p. 15)
    When determining manufacturing practicality, DOE will only consider 
a technology option practical to manufacture if mass production and 
reliable installation and servicing of the technology can be achieved 
in the appropriate scale and timeframe. DOE finds that the technology 
options under consideration are being utilized in ballast designs for 
commercially available ballasts and, therefore, meet the criteria of 
practicable to manufacture. Regarding the costs associated with design 
options, DOE considers economic impacts including costs to the 
individual customers, manufacturers, and the nation of efficiency 
levels incorporating design options under consideration in the LCC, 
NIA, and MIA analyses.
    DOE received several comments regarding the impact of the 
technology options under consideration on the size of the ballast. 
Philips and NEMA commented that any improvements in efficiencies will 
likely cause an increase in the ballast footprint. (Philips, No. 8 at 
p. 11; NEMA, No. 12 at p. 11) ULT, Philips, and NEMA emphasized that 
avoiding technology and efficiency improvements that necessitate 
changes in the physical size outside the normal ballast case footprint 
would be an ideal approach. (ULT, No. 6 at p. 9; Philips, No. 8 at pp. 
13-14; NEMA, No. 12 at p. 11) NEMA added that implementing efficiency 
changes causing fluorescent lamp ballasts to have designs outside of 
standard case sizes would increase maintenance costs. (NEMA, No. 12 at 
p. 11) ULT also noted that any changes in technology that increase 
ballasts' physical volume would be disruptive to the original equipment 
manufacturer (OEM) and replacement channels. (ULT, No. 6 at p. 5) 
Philips stated that while incremental design improvements leading to 
additional energy savings with efficiency gains of 1 to 2 percent are 
theoretically possible, they will result in a negative impact on 
luminaire compliance with existing, size-based electrical requirements. 
(Philips, No. 8 at pp. 13-14)
    When determining adverse impacts to consumer utility and product 
availability, DOE takes into account whether a technology option will 
result in lessening of utility to the consumer. Therefore, in its 
analysis, DOE accounts for scenarios in which a technology option 
increases the size of the ballast making it unusable in an application 
in which it is currently used. DOE found no evidence that the 
technology options identified could not be utilized in a manner that 
would maintain the size of the ballast.
    Regarding impacts of technology options on costs, DOE does not 
consider cost as a factor for screening out technology options. DOE 
considers the economic impacts and costs on individual customers, 
manufacturers, and the nation in the LCC, NIA, and MIA analyses.
    DOE also received specific comments regarding the screening of 
technology options under consideration. In the Framework document, DOE 
considered using optimized-gauge copper or increasing the conductor 
cross section to reduce winding losses, using wire with multiple 
smaller coils, and using shape-optimized winding to improve the 
transformer component of the ballast. ULT stated that industry already 
considers the technology options of using optimized-gauge copper, wire 
with multiple smaller coils, and using shape-optimized winding in the 
development of their product and any adjustments would increase the 
physical volume of these products. (ULT, No. 6 at pp. 4-5) NEMA 
commented that copper losses can be minimized by increasing the cross 
section of the conductor, but increasing the wire gauge can result in 
larger, more costly magnetics. (NEMA, No. 12 at p. 6) Philips stated 
that optimized-gauge copper or increasing the conductor cross section 
may also increase the size of the ballast and increase manufacturing 
costs. (Philips, No. 8 at p. 14)
    Implementing certain technology options to increase ballast 
efficiency may increase the size of the ballast. However, as noted in 
manufacturer comments, these technology options are likely already 
being used in certain commercially available products; therefore, DOE 
believes it is possible to utilize them while maintaining the size of 
the ballast so it would not impact the application in which it is used.
    Philips noted that the use of multiple smaller coils is a good 
approach that has been in use for a long time and is optimized at this 
point; and while manufacturers could use smaller multiple coils, it 
would increase the complexity of the process, possibly making the coil 
wire easier to break. (Philips, No. 8 at p. 14)
    Because DOE has observed ballasts at multiple efficiencies, 
manufacturers are likely utilizing different levels of technology 
options under consideration including the number of small coils used. 
Therefore, DOE continues to consider the use of multiple smaller coils 
as a design option.
    Regarding shape-optimized wiring, Philips stated that while this 
technique can reduce proximity effect losses in industries such as 
motors, it is more complex and expensive for ballast manufacturers. 
Philips added that if it used a special process to make an EF25 \18\ 
coil to reduce the proximity effect losses, it will increase efficiency 
by 0.1 percent. (Philips, No. 8 at p. 14)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \18\ An EF25 coil is a coil for an E-shaped ferrite core that is 
25 mm high.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In identifying design options, DOE does not consider costs, which 
are analyzed in separate analyses. DOE identifies technology options 
that will improve efficiency. However, improvement in efficiency is not 
a criteria used to determine which technology options are suitable for 
further consideration in an energy conservation standards rulemaking. 
10 CFR part 430, subpart C, appendix A, 4(a)(4) Therefore, DOE 
continues to consider shape-optimized wiring as a design option.
a. Screened-Out Technologies
    For this analysis, DOE did not screen out any technology options 
identified.
b. Remaining Technologies
    After reviewing each technology, DOE tentatively concludes that all 
of the identified technologies listed in section IV.A.3 pass all four 
screening criteria to be examined further as design options in this 
analysis. In summary, DOE did not screen out the following technology 
options and considers them as design options in the engineering 
analysis:

(1) Electronic Ballasts
(2) Improved Components
    (a) Use litz wire to reduce winding losses.
    (b) Use wire with multiple smaller coils instead of one larger coil 
to increase the number of turns of wire.
    (c) Use optimized-gauge copper or increase the conductor cross 
section

[[Page 56554]]

to reduce winding losses.
    (d) Use shape-optimized winding to reduce the proximity effect 
losses.
    (e) Use diodes with lower losses.
    (f) Use capacitors with a lower effective series resistance.
    (g) Use transistors with low drain-to-source resistance.
    (h) Use low-loss ferrite to create the core of the inductor.
(3) Improved Circuit Design
    (a) Remove filament heating after the lamp has started.
    (b) Substitute discrete components with an integrated circuit.

    DOE determined that these technology options are technologically 
feasible because they are being used or have previously been used in 
commercially available products or working prototypes. DOE also finds 
that all of the remaining technology options meet the other screening 
criteria (i.e., practicable to manufacture, install, and service and do 
not result in adverse impacts on consumer utility, product 
availability, health, or safety). For additional details, see chapter 4 
of the NOPD TSD.
5. Product Classes
    In general, when evaluating and establishing energy conservation 
standards, DOE divides the covered product into classes by (1) the type 
of energy used, (2) the capacity of the product, or (3) any other 
performance-related feature that affects energy efficiency and 
justifies different standard levels, considering factors such as 
consumer utility. (42 U.S.C. 6295(q))
    DOE received some general comments regarding product classes. ULT 
and NEMA commented that current product class definitions should not be 
changed. (ULT, No. 6 at p. 4; NEMA, No. 12 at p. 5) Giving the example 
of a dimming ballast that can adjust the cathode power for a specific 
lamp based on the lamp's filament impedance, Philips commented that DOE 
should ensure that within the dimming product class, dimming ballasts 
with added features not be eliminated because they consume more energy 
than a standard dimming ballast. (Philips, Public Meeting Transcript, 
No. 5 at p. 61)
    In this analysis, DOE reviewed FLB types to identify those with a 
capacity or other performance-related feature which other FLBs do not 
have, and considered whether such feature would justify a higher or 
lower standard compared to all other ballast types. In the following 
sections, DOE discusses the resulting product classes DOE considered 
for analysis and responds to comments on specific product class setting 
factors.
a. Existing Product Classes
    In the Framework document, DOE considered maintaining the product 
classes for ballasts currently subject to standards. The product 
classes are currently divided based on starting method, lumen package, 
sign ballasts, and residential versus commercial application.
    Both rapid start (RS) and PS ballasts use cathode power; however, 
PS ballasts limit the voltage across the lamp to prevent glow discharge 
during initial cathode heating resulting in an increase in lifetime 
during on/off cycling, and the cathode heat can be removed or reduced 
after the lamp is in full conduction. Therefore, DOE considers PS 
ballasts to offer a performance-related feature that justifies a 
different efficiency level compared to instant start (IS) ballasts. 
Hence, DOE maintains a separate product class for ballasts with the PS 
starting method in this analysis. See chapter 3 of the NOPD TSD for 
further details.
    To obtain a higher lumen package (i.e., amount of light from a 
lamp-and-ballast system), certain lamps are designed to operate with 
ballasts that run the lamps at high currents. Unlike ballasts 
generally, ballasts designed to operate HO lamps are typically used in 
high ceiling or outdoor applications. Ballasts operating HO lamps 
operate at higher total lamp arc powers compared to standard output 
(SO) lamps. BLE generally increases with total lamp arc power. However, 
DOE found that even though 8-foot HO ballasts have higher lamp arc 
powers, they generally have lower BLEs when compared to 8-foot single 
pin (SP) slimline ballasts. This may be because this ballast type has a 
different topology, or circuit design, than other ballast types (e.g., 
4-foot MBP and 8-foot SP slimline ballasts). Because the lumen package 
provides a feature that other ballasts do not and that feature 
justifies a different efficiency requirement compared to other 
ballasts, DOE maintains a separate product class for ballasts that 
operate 8-foot HO lamps. See chapter 3 of the NOPD TSD for further 
details.
    Ballasts that are designed for use in outdoor signs offer 
performance-related features that other ballasts generally do not. To 
operate in outdoor environments and to be able to handle numerous lamp 
combinations, sign ballasts contain more robust components compared to 
regular 8-foot HO ballasts in the commercial sector. Thus, sign 
ballasts are inherently less efficient. Therefore, DOE maintains a 
separate product class for sign ballasts that operate 8-foot HO lamps. 
See chapter 3 of the NOPD TSD for further details.
    Finally, DOE noted in the Framework document that it planned to 
maintain separate product classes for residential and commercial 
ballasts. DOE received several comments on this consideration. ASAP 
encouraged DOE to consider the rationale for a product class for 
residential ballasts. (ASAP, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 
50-51) NEEA agreed asserting that commercial ballasts work just as well 
in a house and have no obvious impact on anything in the house. (NEEA, 
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 51-52) ASAP and CA IOUs 
recommended DOE revisit its analysis of residential ballasts to account 
for changes in the market, such as cost of higher quality components, 
trends in ballast efficiency, or other factors that may have changed 
since standards from the 2011 FL Ballast Rule took effect. (CA IOUs, 
No. 10 at p. 9; ASAP, No. 7 at pp. 4-5; ASAP, Public Meeting 
Transcript, No. 5 at p. 50-51)
    Philips noted that residential ballasts are subject to more 
stringent FCC EMI requirements, and some customers may have sensitive 
equipment that requires extra protection. Further, Philips stated that 
even if residential customers were satisfied with commercial ballasts, 
because of the FCC requirements, manufacturers must produce separate 
ballasts that include additional EMI filtering for the residential 
market. (Philips, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 52) Lutron 
agreed with Philips comments. (Lutron, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 
at p. 52) Philips added that whereas incremental design improvements 
leading to additional energy savings with efficiency gains of 1 to 2 
percent are theoretically possible, they will result in a negative 
impact on ballast compliance with FCC EMI requirements as specified in 
47 CFR part 18. (Philips, No. 8 at pp. 13-14)
    CA IOUs referred to a comment made in the 2011 FL Ballast Rule by 
Acuity Brands Lighting, Inc. (Acuity) stating that a residential 
ballast that achieves the same efficiency as the most efficient 
commercial products would be 50 percent more expensive. CA IOUs stated 
that this indicated it is technically feasible to improve the 
efficiency of residential ballasts, though it may be more expensive. 
(CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 9) Further, ASAP and CA IOUs stated that the 
increasing affordability and confidence in LED technology will provide 
consumers with more cost-effective, efficient technology options while 
regulations from EISA will limit the availability of less energy-
efficient options. Therefore, the potential risk of residential 
fluorescent lighting users

[[Page 56555]]

``backsliding'' to less efficient lighting technologies due to the 
possibly higher cost of energy efficient residential fluorescent lamp 
ballasts has been significantly reduced. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 9; 
ASAP, No. 7 at pp. 4-5; ASAP, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 
50-51)
    Further, ASAP and CA IOUs stated that compared to commercial 
ballasts, more stringent EMI filter requirements for residential 
ballasts may lower efficiency, but the less stringent power factor 
requirements can increase efficiency by not requiring more robust power 
factor control devices. CA IOUs and ASAP suggested that DOE analyze how 
these two factors impact achievable efficiency through additional 
testing and/or modeling, as necessary, and develop an adjustment factor 
that can be applied to the current standard for commercial ballasts to 
define an appropriate standard level for residential ballasts. Further, 
CA IOUs and ASAP suggested that DOE not limit itself to available 
commercial products and model achievable efficiency levels for 
residential ballasts based on the same set of technology options 
available to commercial ballasts. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 9; ASAP, No. 7 
at pp. 4-5; ASAP, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 50-51)
    In the 2011 FL Ballast Rule, DOE determined that the FCC requires 
residential ballasts to have more stringent or maximum allowable EMI 
and per American National Standards Institute (ANSI) standards \19\ 
have a lower minimum power factor than commercial ballasts. Based on 
these differing requirements, DOE concluded that residential ballasts 
serve distinct market sectors and applications. 76 FR at 70564. In this 
analysis, DOE finds that these requirements continue to exist. Further, 
DOE's review of ballast efficiencies showed that residential ballasts 
are unable to achieve similar maximum efficiencies as commercial 
ballasts. Therefore, because residential ballasts serve distinct market 
sectors and applications, and are unable to meet commercial efficiency 
levels, DOE continues to consider separate product classes for 
residential ballasts.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \19\ ANSI C82.77-2002 requires residential ballasts to have a 
minimum power factor of 0.5 and commercial ballasts to have a 
minimum power factor of 0.9. American National Standard for Lighting 
Equipment--Harmonic Emissions Limits--Related Power Quality 
Requirements for Lighting Equipment (Approved January 17, 2002).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DOE did not model efficiencies for residential ballasts. Based on 
its review of patents and product offerings, DOE did not find more 
efficient prototypes or commercially available products with design 
requirements similar to residential ballasts that could serve as a 
basis for modeling higher efficiencies. Further, without a physical 
model to test, it would be difficult to confirm that design changes 
made to improve ballast efficiency would continue to allow the ballast 
to meet FCC's EMI filter requirements. See chapter 5 of the NOPD TSD 
for the assessment of efficiency levels of residential ballast product 
classes.
    NEMA commented that as this rulemaking proceeds and other 
regulatory impacts are discussed, NEMA and Electrofed Canada have been 
in discussions with FCC and Industry Canada regarding revisions to 
emissions requirements for lighting products in North America. They 
expect the forthcoming binational negotiations to determine the 
appropriate emissions limits may take a few years. NEMA stated it will 
keep DOE informed of the progress of these negotiations as this FLB 
rulemaking progresses. NEMA cautioned that if emissions requirements 
become more stringent across the board, added functionality and 
filtering could impact price and efficiency. (NEMA, Public Meeting 
Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 52-53)
    DOE appreciates information on discussions regarding emissions 
requirements for lighting products and looks forward to learning of 
their progress.
b. Additional Product Classes
    In the Framework document, DOE considered product classes for 
dimming fluorescent lamp ballasts based on the following four factors: 
(1) Residential versus commercial, (2) lamp type operated by the 
ballast, (3) continuous versus step dimming, and (4) dimming 
communication protocol.
    Lutron and NEMA commented that proprietary control systems can save 
the same or more energy than standardized control interfaces such as 
DALI, and DOE should broadly define a product class to be ``digitally-
controlled dimming ballasts, such as DALI'' and should only include 
ballasts that operate 4-foot T5 and T8 lamps. Lutron and NEMA added 
that digital dimming ballasts have energy-saving advantages such as the 
ability to react to demand response events and report power usage as 
well as to allow for independent occupancy-sensed and daylighting 
zones. They stated that these features require off-state power 
consumption for which digital ballasts should be given an allowance. 
(Lutron, No. 9 at p. 2; NEMA, No. 12 at pp. 5-6)
    CA IOUs noted that CEC proposed one single product class for all 
dimming ballasts including T5 and T8 dimming ballasts, irrespective of 
number of lamps. However, CA IOUs shared initial test results 
suggesting dimming ballasts operating 2L T5 may be able to achieve 
higher efficiencies than those operating 2L T8 ballasts. CA IOUs 
recommended that DOE test a full range of dimming ballasts that operate 
T5 lamps to determine whether a separate product class is necessary to 
set more appropriate standard levels for these ballasts. (CA IOUs, No. 
10 at pp. 4-5)
    Unlike other ballasts, dimming ballasts allow consumers to control 
the level of light output. Further, DOE's research and feedback from 
manufacturer interviews indicate that due to the added circuitry, 
dimming ballasts are less efficient than standard ballasts. Therefore, 
for this analysis, DOE maintains a separate product class for dimming 
ballasts.
    DOE recently published a request for information (RFI) on the 
emerging smart technology appliance and equipment market. 83 FR 46886 
(Sept. 17, 2018). In that RFI, DOE sought information to better 
understand market trends and issues in the emerging market for 
appliances and commercial equipment that incorporate smart technology. 
DOE's intent in issuing the RFI was to ensure that DOE did not 
inadvertently impede such innovation in fulfilling its statutory 
obligations in setting efficiency standards for covered products and 
equipment. In this NOPD, DOE seeks comment on the same issues presented 
in the RFI as they may be applicable to fluorescent lamp ballasts.
    DOE analyzed one product class for all types of dimming FLBs 
regardless of use in sector, lamp type, or communication protocol used. 
DOE did not identify any dimming ballasts designed and marketed only 
for residential use. While some communication protocols used with 
dimming ballasts provide added features, DOE's evaluation of dimming 
ballast efficiencies indicated that these features did not affect 
efficiency, and analysis of separate product classes based on 
communication protocols was not necessary. Hence, for this analysis DOE 
does not consider a separate product class for ballasts with digital 
communication protocols.
    Additionally, DOE's evaluation of the dimming ballast market and 
feedback from manufacturer interviews did not indicate that 
consideration of a separate product class (or classes) based on the 
lamp type operated by a dimming ballast was justified. DOE's analysis 
showed that with the exception of digital ballasts, the efficiency of 
dimming ballasts operating T8 lamps is

[[Page 56556]]

comparable to those operating T5 lamps. Regarding digital ballasts, 
product offerings showed that digital ballasts that operate T5 lamps 
are slightly more efficient than digital ballasts that operate T8 
lamps. Manufacturer catalogs also indicated that there are more product 
offerings for digital ballasts that operate T5 lamps than T8 lamps. DOE 
identified digital ballasts that operate T8 MBP lamps as lower volume 
products, and tentatively determined that the lower efficiencies are 
not due to the dimming function but instead because these ballasts are 
likely not utilizing the most advanced technologies and the 
efficiencies of these ballasts can be improved. As such, DOE 
tentatively determined that a separate product class for digital 
ballasts that operate T8 MBP lamps would not be justified.
    As noted in section IV.A.1.c, DOE includes in the scope of this 
analysis standards for low-current PS ballasts. In the Framework 
document, DOE considered a separate product class for such ballasts, 
based on factors such as lamp type operated by the ballast, starting 
method, and ballast input voltage. DOE's review of efficiency data 
indicates that low-current PS ballasts have a lower efficiency than 
comparable PS ballasts. These ballasts typically have ballast factors 
equal to or below 0.7 allowing them to offer low light outputs. 
However, DOE finds that the ability to provide low light outputs can be 
achieved by using ballasts with higher ballast factors paired with 
reduced-wattage lamps or by decreasing the number of lamps in the 
system. Therefore, because the ability to provide low light output is 
not limited to low-current PS ballasts, DOE did not consider a separate 
product class for these ballasts for the purpose of this analysis.
c. Summary
    In summary, DOE assessed the product classes shown in the following 
list in its analysis. In describing product classes, DOE includes the 
types of lamps each class of ballast operates. In this analysis, DOE 
updated the list of lamp types based on a review of the latest product 
offerings on the market and added 4-foot T5 SO and 4-foot T5 HO lamp 
types for the IS/RS (not classified as residential), IS/RS residential, 
and PS residential product classes. See chapter 3 of the NOPD TSD for 
further discussion.

(1) IS and RS ballasts (not classified as residential) that operate
    (a) 4-foot MBP lamps
    (b) 2-foot U-shaped lamps
    (c) 4-foot T5 SO lamps
    (d) 4-foot T5 HO lamps
    (e) 8-foot SP slimline lamps
(2) PS ballasts (not classified as residential) that operate
    (a) 4-foot MBP lamps
    (b) 2-foot U-shaped lamps
    (c) 4-foot T5 SO lamps
    (d) 4-foot T5 HO lamps
(3) IS and RS ballasts (not classified as sign ballasts) that operate
    (a) 8-foot HO lamps
(4) PS ballasts (not classified as sign ballasts) that operate
    (a) 8-foot HO lamps
(5) Sign ballasts that operate
    (a) 8-foot HO lamps
(6) IS and RS residential ballasts that operate
    (a) 4-foot MBP lamps
    (b) 2-foot U-shaped lamps
    (c) 4-foot T5 SO lamps
    (d) 4-foot T5 HO lamps
    (e) 8-foot SP slimline lamps
(7) PS residential ballasts that operate
    (a) 4-foot MBP lamps
    (b) 2-foot U-shaped lamps
    (c) 4-foot T5 SO lamps
    (d) 4-foot T5 HO lamps
(8) Dimming ballasts that operate
    (a) 4-foot MBP lamps
    (b) 2-foot U-shaped lamps
    (c) 4-foot T5 SO lamps
    (d) 4-foot T5 HO lamps

B. Engineering Analysis

    In the engineering analysis, DOE selects representative product 
classes to analyze, selects baseline ballasts within those 
representative product classes, and identifies more-efficient 
substitutes for the baseline ballasts. DOE uses these more-efficient 
ballasts to develop efficiency levels.
    For this proposed determination, DOE selected more efficient 
substitutes in the engineering analysis and determined the consumer 
prices of those substitutes in the product price determination. DOE 
estimated the consumer price of ballasts directly because reverse-
engineering ballasts is impractical due to the use of potting, a black 
pitch added to the ballast enclosure to reduce vibration damage and act 
as a heat sink for the circuit board. Potting does not allow for the 
visual observation and identification of individual components of the 
ballast making it infeasible to apply a reverse-engineering approach. 
By combining the results of the engineering analysis and the product 
price determination, DOE derived typical inputs for use in the LCC 
analysis and NIA. Section IV.C discusses the product price 
determination (see chapter 6 of the NOPD TSD for further detail).
    The methodology for the engineering analysis consists of the 
following steps: (1) Selecting representative product classes, (2) 
selecting baseline lamps, (3) identifying more efficient substitutes, 
(4) developing efficiency levels by directly analyzing representative 
product classes, and (5) scaling efficiency levels to non-
representative product classes. The details of the engineering analysis 
are discussed in chapter 5 of the NOPD TSD.
1. Significant Data Sources
    DOE received several comments on data used in the engineering 
analysis. To ensure DOE analyzes currently available compliant 
products, Philips advised DOE to only use ballasts in DOE's CCMS 
database to analyze the performance of fixed output ballasts. (Philips, 
No. 8 at p. 30) Regarding dimming ballasts, low-current PS ballasts, or 
480 V ballasts, ULT and NEMA commented that these products have not 
been evaluated in terms of efficiency or test method changes, and such 
assessments are necessary to ensure a meaningful analysis. (ULT, No. 6 
at p. 5; NEMA, No. 12 at p. 7)
    CA IOUs suggested DOE take into account the analysis they had 
conducted in support of developing CEC's proposed standards for 
fluorescent lamp ballasts. CA IOUs stated that for this analysis they 
tested 34 T8 dimming ballasts selected from 180 T8 dimming ballasts 
listed by the CEE as qualifying commercial lighting products and 
additionally tested seven T5 dimming ballasts. CA IOUs noted that this 
testing, while not comprehensive of the full market, was a good 
starting point. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 8) Further, CA IOUs added that 
it is likely that their analysis of efficiencies of low-current PS 
dimming ballasts will also be useful in understanding the cathode 
heating needs and determining appropriate standard levels for fixed-
output, low-current ballasts. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 10)
    For this analysis, DOE developed a database of ballasts based on 
manufacturer catalogs and DOE's CCMS public database.\20\ For ballasts 
currently subject to energy conservation standards, DOE used BLE values 
in the CCMS database. For ballasts not subject to standards, BLE values 
are not present in the CCMS database, and DOE determined BLE values 
using catalog data. This method was used for low-current PS ballasts 
and dimming ballasts designed and marketed to operate exclusively lamp 
types other than one F34T12, two F34T12, two

[[Page 56557]]

F96T12/ES, or two F96T12HO/ES lamps.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \20\ Compliance data are publicly available on DOE's Compliance 
Certification Database available at http://www.regulations.doe.gov/certification-data/.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DOE used the test data for dimming ballasts provided by CA IOUs to 
understand the general performance of these types of ballasts. However, 
for the engineering analysis DOE relied on catalog data as it allowed 
for an analysis of all dimming products available on the market. 
Further, because DOE considered only standards based on a BLE value at 
full light output, it did not analyze BLEs at lower light outputs to 
develop ELs.
    Additionally, DOE paired baseline and more-efficient ballasts with 
full-wattage and/or reduced-wattage lamps, where appropriate, to 
reflect the most common configurations of lamp-and-ballast systems. DOE 
reviewed the lamp market and identified performance characteristics 
common for the chosen lamps and determined the system initial and mean 
lumen outputs. The tables provided in the sections that follow specify 
only the characteristics of the representative unit with a full 
wattage-lamp. The complete list of pairings of lamps with selected 
representative units is available in chapter 5 of the NOPD TSD.
2. Representative Product Classes
    In the case where a covered product has multiple product classes, 
DOE identifies and selects certain product classes as 
``representative'' and concentrates its analytical effort on those 
classes. For fluorescent lamp ballasts, DOE chose product classes as 
representative primarily because of their high market volumes. Within 
certain representative product classes, DOE also selected multiple 
representative ballast types to account for multiple high volume units 
within the same product class.
    In response to the Framework document, Philips commented that most 
dimming ballasts use a 0-10 V communication protocol and nearly all are 
in the commercial sector especially if it includes retail space but 
noted that they do not have full visibility into application-specific 
dimming habits. (Philips, No. 8 at p. 33)
    In selecting representative product classes, DOE took into account 
comments from stakeholders and also reviewed product offerings and 
feedback from manufacturer interviews regarding market shares of 
ballast types. Based on its assessment, DOE analyzed as representative 
6 product classes and 13 ballast types as shown (in grey shading) in 
Table IV.2. This includes analyzing ballasts using a 0-10 V 
communication protocol as representative in the dimming product class.
BILLING CODE 6450-01-P

[[Page 56558]]

[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP22OC19.000

BILLING CODE 6450-01-C
3. Baseline Ballasts
    For each representative product class, DOE selected a baseline 
ballast as a reference point against which to measure changes resulting 
from energy conservation standards. Typically the baseline ballast is 
the most common, least efficient ballast that meets existing energy 
conservation standards. In this analysis, DOE selected as baselines the 
least efficient ballast meeting standards that operated the most common 
lamp type (i.e., wattage and diameter) and where possible, has the most 
common ballast factor, input voltage, and operating voltage type \21\ 
for the product class. DOE used the BLE values from the CCMS database 
to identify baseline ballasts for all product classes except dimming. 
Because most dimming ballasts are not currently subject to standards 
and therefore do not have CCMS data, DOE determined BLE values by using 
catalog input power and associated total lamp arc power based on the 
catalog ballast factor of the ballast.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \21\ Operating voltage type denotes whether the ballast can 
operate multiple voltages and is considered universal or can only 
operate one voltage and is considered dedicated.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In summary, DOE directly analyzed the baseline ballasts shown in 
Table

[[Page 56559]]

IV.3. See chapter 5 of the NOPD TSD for more detail.

                                                              Table--IV.3 Baseline Ballasts
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                Input voltage/                          Input
          Product class               Ballast type         Lamp type       Starting  method   operating  voltage    Power    Ballast    power      BLE
                                                                                                    *  (V)         factor    factor      (W)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IS/RS Commercial................  2L 4-foot MBP......  32 W T8            IS                 277, Universal.....      0.97      0.89      57.6     0.903
                                  4L 4-foot MBP......  32 W T8            IS                 277, Universal.....      0.98      0.88     112.2     0.916
                                  2L 8-foot SP         59 W T8            IS                 277, Universal.....      0.98      0.88     109.2     0.920
                                   slimline.
PS Commercial...................  2L 4-foot MBP......  32 W T8            PS                 277, Universal.....      0.90      0.88      57.1     0.900
                                  4L 4-foot MBP......  32 W T8            PS                 277, Universal.....      0.90      0.87     110.5     0.920
                                  2L 4-foot MiniBP SO  28 W T5            PS                 277, Universal.....      0.98      1.00      62.4     0.891
                                  2L 4-foot MiniBP HO  54 W T5            PS                 277, Universal.....      0.98      0.99     116.8     0.912
IS/RS 8-foot HO.................  2L 8-foot RDC HO...  110 W T12          RS                 277, Universal.....      0.99      0.89     197.7     0.900
Sign............................  4L 8-foot RDC HO...  110 W T12          RS                 120, Dedicated.....      0.90   ** 0.61     271.6     0.898
IS/RS Residential...............  2L 4-foot MBP......  32 W T8            IS                 120, Dedicated.....      0.50      0.88      58.9     0.872
Dimming.........................  2L 4-foot MBP 0-10V  32 W T8            PS                 277, Universal.....      0.98      0.88      59.0     0.871
                                  2L 4-foot MiniBP SO  28 W T5            PS                 277, Universal.....      0.98      1.00      64.0     0.869
                                   0-10V.
                                  2L 4-foot MiniBP HO  54 W T5            PS                 277, Universal.....      0.98      1.00     118.0     0.912
                                   0-10V.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Universal indicates that the ballast can operate multiple voltages (i.e., 120 V or 277 V); dedicated indicates it can only operate the voltage
  specified.
** DOE found limited information on ballast factors of ballasts in the Sign product class. Based on this information, DOE used the most common ballast
  factor found in catalogs for the product class for representative units that did not specify ballast factor.

4. More-Efficient Substitutes
    DOE selected more-efficient ballasts as replacements for each of 
the baseline ballasts by considering technologies not eliminated in the 
screening analysis. DOE considered these technologies in the 
engineering analysis, either by modeling potential efficiency 
improvements due to the design options or by analyzing commercially 
available ballasts in which the design options are incorporated.
    As fluorescent lamp ballasts are designed to operate fluorescent 
lamps, DOE considered properties of the entire lamp-and-ballast system 
in the engineering analysis. Fluorescent lamp ballasts are capable of 
operating several different configurations and wattages of lamps, so 
DOE chose the most common fluorescent lamp used with each ballast type 
for analysis. Further, DOE selected a more-efficient fluorescent lamp 
ballast with the same or similar ballast factor as the baseline 
ballast, so that light output would be maintained without needing to 
change the spacing of the fixture. Specifically, DOE ensured that 
potential substitutes maintained the system light output within 10 
percent of the baseline lamp-and-ballast system light output.
    Finally, DOE selected more-efficient substitutes that showed an 
improvement in BLE and a reduction in input power. As with the baseline 
ballasts, DOE used the BLE values from the CCMS database for all 
product classes except those dimming classes which are not currently 
subject to standards and therefore do not have CCMS data. For dimming 
ballasts, DOE determined BLE values by using catalog input power and 
associated total lamp arc power based on the catalog ballast factor of 
the ballast.
    ULT and NEMA commented that the data manufacturers submit to DOE's 
CCMS database should be reproducible and, therefore, could be used in 
modeling. (ULT, No. 6 at p. 6; NEMA, No. 12 at p. 8) Regarding modeling 
potential system efficiency, NEMA and ULT encouraged DOE to take into 
account factors such as form factor, ability to reproduce in 
manufacturing, and tolerance of all incorporated parts, and then 
conduct physical tests of any models and design projections not 
available in the market or dismiss them from analysis. (NEMA, No. 12 at 
p. 7; ULT, No. 6 at p. 6) ULT also asserted that the HID rulemaking had 
modeled products at efficiency levels that could not be manufactured. 
(ULT, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 70)
    When evaluating more-efficient substitutes, DOE can model potential 
efficiency improvements based on design options identified in the 
screening analysis. As noted in section IV.A.4, the technology options 
identified as design options must be technologically feasible; 
practicable to manufacture, install, and service; have no adverse 
impacts on product utility or product availability; and have no adverse 
impacts on health or safety.
    For the IS/RS 2L 8-foot SP slimline representative ballast type, 
DOE modeled a representative unit at EL 3 (EL values are provided in 
Table IV.4). As noted, in most cases BLE increases with increasing 
total lamp arc power for fluorescent lamp ballasts. DOE found that 4L 
4-foot MBP ballasts, which operate similar total lamp arc powers as 2L 
8-foot SP slimline ballasts, are able to meet EL 3. Further, DOE found 
that ballasts operating 2L 8-foot T12 SP slimline lamps also meet EL 3. 
Therefore, DOE determined that design options in commercially available 
ballasts meeting EL 3 could be applied to a ballast operating two 8-
foot T8 SP slimline lamps to achieve a higher efficiency. DOE assumed 
the modeled ballast would have characteristics common to the product 
class such as universal operating voltage, normal ballast factor, and 
0.98 power factor (PF). Using a common ballast factor for the product 
class, DOE determined the lamp arc power and BLE for a ballast 
operating two 8-foot T8 SP slimline lamps that would meet EL 3. The 
performance characteristics of the modeled 2L 8-foot SP slimline 
ballast are shown in Table IV.4.
    ULT and NEMA stated that while reduced-wattage lamp-and-ballast 
systems are common and the first step to offering higher energy 
savings, the ballasts in these systems have added features that make 
them less efficient. ULT noted that ballasts designed to operate 
reduced-wattage lamps require higher open circuit voltages and flicker 
control. (ULT, No. 6 at p. 7; ULT, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at 
pp. 82-83; NEMA, No. 12 at p. 9)
    As noted previously, DOE chose baseline and more-efficient 
substitute representative units that operate the most common lamps, 
which in many cases are full-wattage lamps. DOE's review of products in 
the market indicates that highly efficient ballasts operating full-
wattage lamps can also operate reduced-wattage lamps. DOE notes sign 
ballasts as an exception, which predominantly operate full-wattage 8-
foot T12 recessed double contact (RDC) HO lamps and have limited 
reduced-wattage options. Therefore, the analysis accounts for any

[[Page 56560]]

potential impacts on efficiency due to added features required for 
operating reduced-wattage lamps.
    ASAP recommended that reference lamps rather than ballast 
manufacturer's specified lamps be used in DOE's analysis of total 
system energy consumption of the lamp-and-ballast system. (ASAP, Public 
Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 71-72)
    DOE paired baseline and more-efficient ballasts with full-wattage 
and/or reduced-wattage lamps, where appropriate, to reflect the most 
common configurations of lamp-and-ballast systems. DOE reviewed the 
lamp market and identified performance characteristics common for the 
chosen lamps and determined the system initial and mean lumen outputs. 
The complete list of pairings of lamps with selected representative 
units is available in chapter 5 of the NOPD TSD.
5. Efficiency Levels
    After identifying more-efficient substitutes for each of the 
baseline ballasts, DOE developed ELs based on the consideration of 
several factors, including: (1) The design options associated with the 
specific ballasts being studied, (2) the ability of ballasts across 
wattages to comply with the standard level of a given product class, 
and (3) the max-tech level.
    In this analysis, DOE used the same equation-based approach used in 
the 2011 FL Ballast Rule. DOE determined that a power law equation best 
modeled the observed trend between total lamp arc power and average 
BLE. Specifically, DOE used the following equation that relates the 
total lamp arc power operated by a ballast to BLE to develop ELs:
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP22OC19.001

where power = average total lamp arc power and A, B, and C are 
constants that vary by product class.
    DOE conducted extensive testing in the 2011 FL Ballast Rule to 
develop the above equation. Based on this testing, DOE determined the 
exponent C, which relates power to ballast losses, to be 0.25 for the 
IS starting method and 0.37 for the PS starting method. Further, DOE 
applied an adjustment factor A to reflect BLE values representative of 
testing at the average test lab. DOE developed coefficient B based on 
the tested BLE values for each product class and adjusted it to reflect 
different levels of efficiencies based on representative 
characteristics of the product class. Based on DOE's analysis of data 
in this proposed determination, DOE determined that the methodology 
used in the 2011 FL Ballast Rule to determine exponent C and adjustment 
factor A remain valid.
    DOE received some general comments on ballast efficiency levels. 
ASAP stated that the shift to solid-state lighting will come with 
higher costs of drivers and light sources, and fluorescent lamp 
ballasts should not become the lowest common denominator in terms of 
price and performance. (ASAP, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 
31-32) ULT and NEMA commented that because manufacturing was close to 
the implementation date of the last rulemaking, all products on the 
market manufactured after November 2014 will be at the minimum or 
slightly higher than the minimum BLE standard. Therefore, these 
products reflect both the minimum and maximum technology efficiency 
levels. (ULT, No. 6 at p. 5; NEMA, No. 12 at p. 7) Philips agreed that 
ballast technology is already close to its maximum potential. (Philips, 
No. 8 at p. 15)
    DOE identified several commercially available ballasts performing 
at efficiency levels higher than existing standards. The efficiencies 
determined from manufacturer catalogs and certification data indicate 
several efficiency levels higher than the existing standard. Thus, 
manufacturers appear to be utilizing more advanced technologies than 
required to just meet the standard level.
    DOE based initial ELs on the more-efficient representative units 
selected for each product class. For product classes with multiple 
representative ballast types, DOE established ELs after considering the 
representative units of all representative ballast types in the product 
class.
    To establish final minimum efficiency requirements for each EL, DOE 
evaluated whether any adjustments were necessary to the initial ELs to 
ensure ballasts were available across a range of lamp arc powers and 
ballast factors representative of each product class. For example, DOE 
found ballasts operating certain lamp arc powers or ballasts factors do 
not meet the highest efficiency level. DOE reviewed these products and 
found they are low volume and are likely not using the most recent 
advanced technologies. Some of them operated a total lamp arc power 
that was between the total lamp arc powers operated by ballasts that 
did comply with the highest standard level analyzed. Based on this 
review, these FLBs appear to not have been fully optimized to achieve 
the highest efficiency levels, and can be improved. Based on its 
observations and analysis, DOE tentatively determined that no 
additional adjustments to the initial ELs were necessary.
    The ELs and characteristics of the representative units are 
summarized in Table IV.4 through Table IV.9. Grey shading indicates the 
modeled unit for the two-lamp 8-foot SP slimline representative ballast 
type operating a T8 lamp. See chapter 5 of the NOPD TSD for more 
detail.
BILLING CODE 6450-01-P

[[Page 56561]]

[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP22OC19.002

    As shown in Table IV.4 for the IS/RS commercial representative 
product class, three ELs are analyzed. The baseline, presented in Table 
IV.3, represents a basic ballast with an efficiency near the existing 
standard level. EL 1 represents an improved ballast with more-efficient 
components (e.g., transformers, diodes, capacitors, transistors) that 
minimize losses and circuit design (e.g., integrated circuitry). EL 2 
represents an advanced ballast with improved components and improved 
circuit design. EL 3 is the maximum technologically feasible level and 
represents a ballast with the most efficient combination of improved 
components and circuit design.

                                                     Table IV.5--PS Commercial Representative Units
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                 Input  voltage/                        Input
        Product class                EL          Ballast type       Lamp type       Starting         operating      Power    Ballast    power      BLE
                                                                                     method       voltage *  (V)   factor    factor      (W)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PS Commercial................  EL 1            2L 4-foot MBP...  32 W T8         PS              277, Universal.      0.97      0.88      56.3     0.913
                                               4L 4-foot MBP...  32 W T8         PS              277, Universal.      0.98      0.87     109.5     0.928
                                               2L 4-foot MiniBP  28 W T5         PS              277, Universal.      0.98      1.00      61.4     0.905
                                                SO.
                                               2L 4-foot MiniBP  54 W T5         PS              277, Universal.      0.97      1.00     115.9     0.928
                                                HO.
                               EL 2            2L 4-foot MBP...  32 W T8         PS              277, Universal.      0.98      0.88      53.9     0.953
                                               4L 4-foot MBP...  32 W T8         PS              277, Universal.      0.99      0.87     107.6     0.944
                                               2L 4-foot MiniBP  28 W T5         PS              277, Universal.      0.98      1.00      59.8     0.929
                                                SO.
                                               2L 4-foot MiniBP  54 W T5         PS              277, Universal.      0.98      1.00     113.6     0.947
                                                HO.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Universal indicates that the ballast can operate multiple voltages (i.e., 120 V or 277 V).

    As shown in Table IV.5 for the PS commercial product class, two ELs 
are analyzed. The baseline, presented in Table IV.3, represents a basic 
ballast with an efficiency near the existing standard level. EL 1 
represents an improved ballast with more-efficient components (e.g., 
transformers, diodes, capacitors, transistors) that minimize losses and 
circuit design (e.g., integrated circuitry). EL 2 is the maximum 
technologically feasible level and represents a ballast with the most 
efficient combination of improved components and circuit design.

[[Page 56562]]

[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP22OC19.003

    As shown in Table IV.6 for the IS 8-foot HO commercial product 
class, two ELs are analyzed. The baseline, presented in Table IV.3, 
represents a basic ballast with an efficiency near the existing 
standard level. EL 1 represents an improved ballast with more-efficient 
components (e.g., transformers, diodes, capacitors, transistors) that 
minimize losses and circuit design (e.g., use of cathode cutout 
technology, integrated circuitry). EL 2 is the maximum technologically 
feasible level and represents a ballast with the most efficient 
combination of improved components and circuit design.

                                                          Table IV.7--Sign Representative Units
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                 Input  voltage/             Ballast    Input
        Product class                EL          Ballast type       Lamp type       Starting         operating      Power    factor     power      BLE
                                                                                     method       voltage *  (V)   factor      **        (W)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sign.........................  EL 1            4L 8-foot RDC HO  110 W T12       IS              120, Dedicated.      0.99      0.61     265.1     0.920
                               EL 2            4L 8-foot RDC HO  110 W T12       IS              120, Dedicated.      0.90      0.61     258.4     0.944
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Dedicated indicates it can only operate the voltage specified.
** DOE found limited information for ballast factor, and therefore used the most common ballast factor found in product class for representative units
  that did not specify ballast factor.

    As shown in Table IV.7 for the sign product class, two ELs are 
analyzed. The baseline, presented in Table IV.3, represents a basic 
ballast with an efficiency near the existing standard level. EL 1 
represents an improved ballast with more-efficient components (e.g., 
transformers, diodes, capacitors, transistors) that minimize losses and 
circuit design (e.g., integrated circuitry). EL 2 is the maximum 
technologically feasible level and represents a ballast with the most 
efficient combination of improved components and circuit design.

                                                   Table IV.8--IS/RS Residential Representative Units
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                 Input  voltage/                        Input
        Product class                EL          Ballast type       Lamp type       Starting         operating      Power    Ballast    power      BLE
                                                                                     method       voltage *  (V)   factor    factor      (W)
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IS/RS Residential............  EL 1            2L 4-foot MBP...  32 W T8         IS              120, Dedicated.      0.56      0.85      56.2     0.884
                               EL 2            2L 4-foot MBP...  32 W T8         IS              120, Dedicated.      0.56      0.85      55.2     0.899
                               EL 3            2L 4-foot MBP...  32 W T8         IS              120, Dedicated.      0.55      0.83      53.1     0.913
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Dedicated indicates it can only operate the voltage specified.

    As shown in Table IV.8 for the IS/RS residential product class, 
three ELs are analyzed. The baseline, presented in Table IV.3, 
represents a basic ballast with an efficiency near the existing 
standard level. EL 1 represents an improved ballast with more-efficient 
components (e.g., transformers, diodes, capacitors, transistors) that 
minimize losses and circuit design (e.g., integrated circuitry). EL 2 
represents an advanced ballast with improved components and improved 
circuit design. EL 3 is the maximum technologically feasible level and 
represents a ballast with the most efficient combination of improved 
components and circuit design.
    CA IOUs stated DOE has the opportunity to capture significant 
energy savings by raising standards for residential ballasts to levels 
closer to those of commercial ballasts. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 1) ASAP 
agreed that DOE should reassess the market and set more appropriate 
levels for residential ballasts to capture additional energy savings. 
(ASAP, No. 7 at p. 4)
    Based on DOE's review of ballast efficiencies discussed previously, 
residential ballasts are unable to achieve maximum efficiencies similar 
to commercial ballasts. DOE identified the more-efficient substitute 
representative units for residential ballasts and identified the 
efficiency levels specified in Table IV.8. Based on the methodology and 
data, DOE finds these efficiency levels to be appropriate for the 
residential ballast product class.

[[Page 56563]]

[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP22OC19.004

BILLING CODE 6450-01-C
    As shown in Table IV.9 for the dimming product class, three ELs are 
analyzed. The baseline, presented in Table IV.3, represents a basic 
ballast with an efficiency near the existing standard level. EL 1 
represents an improved ballast with more-efficient components (e.g., 
transformers, diodes, capacitors, transistors) that minimize losses and 
circuit design (e.g., use of cathode cutout technology, integrated 
circuitry). EL 2 represents an advanced ballast with improved 
components and improved circuit design. EL 3 is the maximum 
technologically feasible level and represents a ballast with the most 
efficient combination of improved components and circuit design.
    CA IOUs requested DOE review their work in support of developing 
CEC's standards for dimming ballasts and noted that they have provided 
numerous associated documents to the docket of this rulemaking 
including results from testing performance of dimming ballasts from 100 
percent full light output down to the minimum dimming level where the 
lamp is still producing light. (CA IOUs, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 
5 at pp. 72-73; CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 2) CA IOUs stated that while they 
supported DOE's consideration of dimming ballasts for standards, they 
recommended that DOE not adopt a less stringent standard than the one 
proposed by CEC for dimming ballasts. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 2)
    However, NEMA stated that DOE should not simply implement the 
standards proposed by CEC for T8 and T5 dimming ballasts because if 
those dimming ballasts were tested using DOE's current test method, no 
dimming ballasts would be available for sale in the United States. 
(NEMA, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 9-11) Lutron asserted 
that the market in California will be driving dimming ballast sales as 
it is the only state that has building code requirements for dimming 
ballasts. Therefore, Lutron questioned the need for standards stricter 
than those already adopted by California for dimming ballasts as no one 
will manufacture separate products for California and the rest of the 
country. (Lutron, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 61-62)
    DOE recognizes that certain products evaluated for this NOPD may be 
subject to State regulation. As noted, DOE is conducting this 
evaluation of FLB pursuant to the direction in EPCA (see section II.A). 
Consistent with that statutory direction DOE is evaluating a potential 
standard for dimming ballasts

[[Page 56564]]

based on BLE at full light output rather than based on a weighted 
metric.
    Table IV.10 summarizes the efficiency requirements at each EL for 
the representative product classes. DOE seeks comment on the ELs under 
consideration for the representative product classes, including the max 
tech levels. See section VII.C for a list of issues on which DOE seeks 
comment.

                         Table IV.10--Summary of ELs for Representative Product Classes
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    BLE = A/(1+B*total lamp arc power[caret]-C)
                                                                         where A, B, and C are as follows:
     Representative  product class          Efficiency level     -----------------------------------------------
                                                                         A               B               C
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
IS/RS Commercial......................  EL 1....................           0.993            0.24            0.25
                                        EL 2....................  ..............            0.21  ..............
                                        EL 3....................  ..............            0.16  ..............
PS Commercial.........................  EL 1....................           0.993            0.43            0.37
                                        EL 2....................  ..............            0.31  ..............
IS/RS Residential.....................  EL 1....................           0.993            0.33            0.25
                                        EL 2....................  ..............            0.28  ..............
                                        EL 3....................  ..............            0.24  ..............
IS/RS 8-foot HO.......................  EL 1....................           0.993            0.24            0.25
                                        EL 2....................  ..............            0.14  ..............
Sign..................................  EL 1....................           0.993            0.32            0.25
                                        EL 2....................  ..............            0.24  ..............
Dimming...............................  EL 1....................           0.993            0.56            0.37
                                        EL 2....................  ..............            0.48  ..............
                                        EL 3....................  ..............            0.40  ..............
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

6. Scaling to Other Product Classes
    DOE identified and selected certain product classes as 
representative and analyzed these product classes directly. DOE chose 
these representative product classes primarily due to their high market 
volumes. The ELs for product classes that were not directly analyzed 
(``non-representative product classes'') were then determined by 
scaling the ELs of the representative product classes. Specifically, 
DOE did not analyze PS 8-foot HO ballasts or PS residential ballasts 
directly. NEMA and ULT recommended that DOE test all products to be 
covered because scaling may not produce the correct values. (NEMA, No. 
12 at p. 8; ULT, No. 6 at p. 6)
    In this analysis, DOE developed ELs for the PS 8-foot HO product 
class by scaling the ELs of the IS/RS 8-foot HO product class and the 
ELs for PS residential product class by scaling the ELs of the IS/RS 
residential product class. The primary difference between these sets of 
product classes is the starting method. Hence, DOE developed scaling 
factors by identifying pairs of the same ballast type manufactured by 
the same manufacturer, within the same product family, that differed 
only by starting method. The tested and certified efficiency values 
submitted to the DOE CCMS as well as manufacturer catalog data for 
these ballast pairs were used to calculate the scaling factors. From 
this analysis DOE determined that the ballasts with a PS starting 
method are 2 percent less efficient than those with IS starting method. 
DOE then applied this reduction in BLE to develop the appropriate EL 
equation curves for the PS 8-foot HO and PS residential product class. 
Because it is based on tested CCMS and manufacturer-provided catalog 
values, DOE has tentatively determined that this an accurate method for 
developing the ELs of the PS 8-foot HO and PS residential product 
classes. See chapter 5 of the NOPD TSD for more details.
    Table IV.11 summarizes the efficiency requirements at each EL for 
the non-representative product classes. DOE seeks comment on the ELs 
under consideration for the non-representative product classes, 
including the max-tech levels. See section VII.C for a list of issues 
on which DOE seeks comment.

                       Table IV.11--Summary of ELs for Non-Representative Product Classes
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                    BLE = A/(1+B*total lamp arc power[caret]-C)
                                                                         where A, B, and C are as follows:
   Non-representative product class         Efficiency level     -----------------------------------------------
                                                                         A               B               C
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
PS 8-foot HO..........................  EL 1....................           0.973            0.45            0.37
                                        EL 2....................  ..............            0.26  ..............
PS Residential........................  EL 1....................           0.973            0.54            0.37
                                        EL 2....................  ..............            0.46  ..............
                                        EL 3....................  ..............            0.39  ..............
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7. Proprietary Designs
    In the Framework document, DOE explained it would consider in its 
engineering and economic analyses all design options that are 
commercially available or present in a working prototype, including 
proprietary designs, that meet the screening criteria discussed in 
section IV.A.4. DOE will consider a proprietary design in the 
subsequent analysis only if it does not represent a unique path to a 
given efficiency level. If the proprietary design is the only approach 
available to achieve a given efficiency level, then DOE will eliminate 
the efficiency level from further analysis. However, if the efficiency 
level can be achieved by a number of design approaches, including a 
proprietary design, DOE will continue to examine the given efficiency 
level.

[[Page 56565]]

    NEMA and ULT commented that as long as DOE follows the methodology 
laid out in the Framework document, they will not have an issue with 
the examination of proprietary designs. (NEMA, No. 12 at p. 8; ULT, No. 
6 at p. 6) NEMA reiterated its comments made in CEC rulemaking 
proceedings on cathode cutout that there may be various interlinked 
patents regarding cathode cutout and encouraged DOE to exercise caution 
not to inadvertently favor one patented method over another. (NEMA, 
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 58-59)
    DOE received feedback in manufacturer interviews that while there 
are various patents related to ballast efficiency, the efficiencies of 
ballasts can be improved without reliance on a patented technology. DOE 
is not aware of any efficiency level under consideration that can only 
be achieved by a proprietary design.

C. Product Price Determination

    Typically, DOE develops manufacturer selling prices (MSPs) for 
covered products and applies markups to create end-user prices to use 
as inputs to the LCC analysis and NIA. Because fluorescent lamp 
ballasts are difficult to reverse-engineer (i.e., not easily 
disassembled due to potting), DOE directly derives end-user prices for 
the ballasts covered in this proposed determination.
    In the Framework document, DOE stated that for commercial and 
industrial ballast designs, fluorescent lamp ballasts can go through 
two types of distribution channels: sold within fixtures and sold as 
replacement ballasts. In the fixture distribution channel, the 
manufacturer sells the ballast to an OEM--in this case, the fixture 
manufacturer--who in turn sells the ballast in a fixture to an 
electrical wholesaler (i.e., distributor). The distributor sells it to 
a contractor, who passes it on to the end-user. In the replacement 
distribution channel, the manufacturer sells the ballast to an 
electrical wholesaler, who sells it to a contractor, who passes it on 
to the end-user. For residential ballast designs, DOE assumes that the 
manufacturer sells the ballast to an OEM who in turn sells it in a 
fixture to a home improvement retailer, where it is purchased by the 
consumer.
    GE commented that the distribution channels considered in the 
Framework document analysis are similar to the 2011 FL Ballast Rule and 
appear to be appropriate. (GE, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 
91) Philips agreed that the value chain had been accurately mapped out. 
(Philips, No. 8 at p. 34)
    In this analysis, DOE retained the basic structure of distribution 
channels described in the Framework document with minor modifications 
based on additional research and information learned through 
manufacturer interviews. DOE determined that ballasts can be sold by 
electrical wholesalers to the end-user in large volume via a 
contractor; in large volume without a contractor; and in low volume 
without a contractor (e.g., homeowners). Based on estimated shipments, 
DOE assigned a weighting of 85 percent for large volume via contractor; 
10 percent for large volume without a contractor; and 5 percent for low 
volume without a contractor. DOE accounted for all three scenarios in 
developing end-user prices for representative units identified in the 
engineering analysis.
    ULT and NEMA commented that the best way to understand the cost of 
products is to work with individual manufacturers under a 
confidentiality agreement. They stated that teardown analysis or 
bottom-up analysis would be difficult because of the use of potting 
material in ballast design, which is still very common. (ULT, Public 
Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 75; ULT, No. 6 at p. 6; NEMA, No. 12 at 
p. 8) Philips commented that product teardowns should not be used for 
market pricing predictions, but only for possible product manufacturing 
cost analysis and reverse engineering because market prices are not 
determined on a cost plus basis. Further, Philips noted that while blue 
book prices may be directionally accurate, they will not account for 
additional discounts and pricing programs available in the value chain. 
Philips commented that NEMA data on market units and dollars could be 
useful in making pricing assumptions and suggested DOE work directly 
with NEMA to obtain relevant data by channel, and if that was not 
possible they could provide DOE with their local market analysis 
expert. (Philips, No. 8 at pp. 30, 34)
    DOE was unable to obtain blue book prices (i.e., manufacturer 
suggested prices) for ballasts and did not utilize the teardown 
approach due to use of potting in ballasts. To develop end-user prices 
for fluorescent lamp ballasts, DOE began with a consistent set of 
prices by determining an average electrical wholesaler price for each 
representative unit. DOE determined that in addition to electrical 
distributors such as Grainger, internet retailers can also serve as 
wholesalers of fluorescent lamp ballasts. Therefore, DOE collected 
prices from electrical distributors and internet retailers for each 
representative unit and/or ballast with similar performance 
characteristics to develop an average wholesaler price.
    For the replacement channel, DOE used this average wholesaler price 
to determine the end-user prices for ballasts going through each 
wholesaler pathway: Large volume (no contractor), large volume (with 
contractor), and low volume (no contractor). DOE used the average 
wholesaler price as the large volume (no contractor) end-user price. 
DOE applied a contractor markup of 13 percent to the average wholesaler 
price to develop the large volume (with contractor) end-user price. DOE 
determined that ballasts sold through the low volume pathway would be 
sold by home centers. However, DOE found limited price data for 
representative units at home centers. Therefore, based on manufacturer 
feedback DOE applied an estimated 20 percent markup to the average 
wholesaler price to determine the low volume (no contractor) consumer 
price. DOE then weighted the large volume (with contractor) price by 85 
percent; large volume (no contractor) price by 10 percent; and low 
volume (no contractor) price by 5 percent to develop an average 
weighted end-user price for each representative unit.
    For the fixture channel, DOE applied an OEM markup of 21 percent to 
the average weighted end-user price determined for the replacement 
channel.
    Based on manufacturer feedback, DOE determined that the estimated 
shipments going through the replacement channel and fixture channel are 
each 50 percent. DOE applied this weighting to the average end-user 
prices for the replacement and OEM channels to develop the final end-
user price of a representative unit. Once DOE calculated end-user 
prices, DOE added sales tax and, if appropriate, installation costs to 
derive the total, installed end-user cost. See chapter 6 of the NOPD 
TSD for pricing results and further details on the pricing methodology.
    DOE received comments on price trends for dimming ballasts. 
Although CA IOUs and CEC used slightly different methods to understand 
the cost effectiveness of dimming ballasts, CA IOUs stated that both 
methods showed cost-effective results. They encouraged DOE to review 
both CEC methodology, which was more similar to a tear down approach, 
and the CA IOU methodology, which was more of a statistical analysis of 
ballast prices on the market. (CA IOUs, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 
5 at p. 75)
    CA IOUs stated that they completed a multivariable regression 
analysis on dimming fluorescent lamp ballasts

[[Page 56566]]

available from online retailers to evaluate cost effectiveness of a 
standard for dimming ballasts. Through this research, CA IOUs found no 
statistical correlation between product efficiency and price, but 
rather the results of the regression model suggested that dimming FLB 
price is more strongly correlated to manufacturer, how many lamps it 
can operate, and whether or not it is digitally controllable, rather 
than efficiency. CA IOUs referred to a graphical representation of data 
they had collected, which indicated that there is no clear trend 
suggesting that higher efficiency ballasts are generally more expensive 
than lower efficiency ballasts. CEC's cost-effectiveness evaluation 
focused on the cost of implementing cathode cutout technology to make 
the dimming ballasts more efficient. Based on the TSD from the 2011 FL 
Ballast Rule, CEC assumed that the incremental cost of cathode cutout 
was $0.89 for a 2-lamp ballast, which was scaled by $0.10 per lamp, 
resulting in the highest incremental cost for a 4-lamp ballast as 
$1.09. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at pp. 8-9)
    In the product price determination, DOE developed end-user prices 
for each representative unit. As noted in the engineering analysis, 
these representative ballasts incorporate the design options to achieve 
the EL under consideration. Therefore, DOE's end-user prices would 
include the use of the cathode cutout design option used in a 
representative unit. DOE's evaluation of prices for dimming ballasts 
indicate that end-user price does increase with the efficiency of 
dimming ballast. Further, in interviews, manufacturers indicated that 
generally all things considered equal, prices will increase with FLB 
efficiency. DOE seeks comment on the methodology and results for 
estimating end-user prices for fluorescent lamp ballasts in this 
analysis. See section VII.C for a list of issues on which DOE seeks 
comment. Chapter 6 of the NOPD TSD provides details on DOE's 
development of end-user prices for fluorescent lamp ballasts.

D. Energy Use Analysis

    The purpose of the energy use analysis is to determine the annual 
energy consumption of fluorescent lamp ballasts at different BLE in 
representative U.S. commercial and industrial buildings, outdoor 
installations, and single-family homes and multi-family residences, and 
to assess the energy savings potential of increased BLE for fluorescent 
lamp ballasts. The energy use analysis estimates the range of energy 
use of fluorescent lamp ballasts in the field (i.e., as they are 
actually used by consumers). The energy use analysis provides the basis 
for other analyses DOE performed, particularly assessments of the 
energy savings and the savings in consumer operating costs that could 
result from adoption of amended standards.
    The energy conservation standards for fluorescent lamps are not 
within the scope of this analysis; however, the input power of the 
complete lamp-and-ballast system is considered for the energy use 
analysis because ballasts are not intended to operate without lamps. 
The energy use characterization provides estimates of annual energy use 
for representative lamp-and-ballast systems that DOE evaluates in the 
LCC and PBP analyses and the NIA. To develop annual energy use 
estimates, DOE multiplied annual usage (in hours per year) by the 
system input power (in watts).
    DOE selected the most common fluorescent lamps used with each 
analyzed ballast to develop representative lamp-and-ballast systems. 
DOE developed the system input power estimates in the engineering 
analysis. To characterize the country's average use of fluorescent lamp 
ballasts for a typical year, DOE developed annual operating hours by 
sector, using data from the 2015 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization 
(LMC), which was published in 2017.\22\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \22\ U.S. Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and 
Renewable Energy. 2015 U.S. Lighting Market Characterization. 
November 2017. https://energy.gov/eere/ssl/2015-us-lighting-market-characterization.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Philips stated that it was unclear how DOE would assign each 
ballast type into one or more sectors. Many types of ballasts can be 
used in both commercial and industrial applications that would affect 
their usage profile. Philips expected DOE to use an appropriate method 
to assign the different ballasts the various sectors. (Philips, No. 8 
at p. 31) DOE agrees that fluorescent lamp ballasts are used in many 
applications, and a single ballast model could be used within different 
sectors. In chapter 7 of the NOPD TSD, DOE analyzed the typical 
operating hours of the different sectors. DOE then weighted the ballast 
operation by sector to develop average operating hours.
1. Reduced Wattage Fluorescent Lamps
    ULT stated that the use of reduced wattage (also known as energy 
saving) lamps in the marketplace is very common. (ULT, No. 6 at p. 7) 
NEMA, SCE, and ULT stated that reduced wattage lamps are the first step 
in energy savings for a large portion of the market. (NEMA, No. 12 at 
p. 9; SCE, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 81-82; ULT, No. 6 at 
p. 7) DOE agrees and modeled a mixture of full wattage and multiple 
reduced wattage options (where they exist) for many of the fluorescent 
lamps operated by the fluorescent lamp ballasts. See chapter 5 of the 
NOPD TSD for more details.
2. Occupancy Sensors
    NEMA and ULT stated that occupancy sensors will be in the off mode 
more than the on mode with the exception of those installed in offices. 
In general, these are installed in areas that are not frequently 
occupied. Spaces can include but are not limited to bathrooms, 
stairwells, closets, hallways, and warehouse aisles, where sensors are 
off most of the time. For occupancy sensors used in offices to turn 
lights off after a preset time of inactivity, the time in the on mode 
would be difficult to generalize because it would differ greatly from 
installation to installation. (NEMA, No. 12 at p. 4; ULT, No. 6 at p. 
8) NEMA and Lutron directed DOE to review work conducted by Lawrence 
Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) for additional data on occupancy 
sensors.\23\ (NEMA, No. 12 at pp. 9-10; Lutron, No. 9 at pp. 2-3) DOE 
reviewed the LBNL reports and one report specifically mentioned by 
Lutron states that energy savings from occupancy controls per zone were 
27 percent. However, savings primarily occurred at night between 6 p.m. 
and 1 a.m. and during early morning and evening hours when occupancy 
tended to be irregular.\24\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \23\ A technical publications list is available at Lawrence 
Berkeley National Laboratory. DOE relied primarily on A Meta-
Analysis of Energy Savings from Lighting Controls in Commercial 
Buildings, available at https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/meta-analysis-energy-savings-lighting.
    \24\ Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. Monitored Lighting 
Energy Savings from Dimmable Lighting Controls in the New York Times 
Headquarters Building. 2013. Available at https://windows.lbl.gov/publications/monitored-lighting-energy-savings-dimmable-lighting-controls-new-york-times.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DOE stated in the Framework document that in the 2011 FL Ballast 
Rule, DOE adjusted the annual operating hours for the ballasts in the 
commercial sector that are controlled by occupancy sensors by roughly 
30 percent compared to the other ballasts. Lutron and NEMA stated that 
reduced hours are high for intelligent systems using dimming ballasts 
with multiple control types. Occupancy sensors and time clock operation 
have the potential to dramatically reduce operating hours. For this 
analysis, DOE also reduced the operating hours for MBP lamps in the PS 
commercial product class by 30

[[Page 56567]]

percent to account for the use of occupancy sensors.
    NEMA and ULT stated that operating hours can vary for the same 
model of a ballast installed in different applications. NEMA and ULT 
suggested that it would be best to develop an average usage number to 
apply to ballasts and that to figure all scenarios would be virtually 
impossible. (NEMA, No. 12 at p. 9; ULT, No. 6 at p. 7) DOE agrees and 
assigned a single average usage to each of the different ballast types. 
Within the LCC analysis, DOE includes a distribution of operating hours 
in the Crystal Ball \TM\ (a commercially available software program) 
analysis used to determine the average LCC savings as well as the 
percentage of net customers experiencing a net cost. Resultant average 
values calculated from the Crystal Ball \TM\ distributions were used in 
the NIA.
3. Dimming Ballasts
    During the framework public meeting, both GE and CA IOUs stated 
that dimming ballasts will have an operating profile different from 
fixed-output (non-dimming) ballasts. Dimming ballasts are typically 
operating in advanced systems, and as a result, might have fewer 
operating hours or be operating in a dim mode compared to a standard 
static system. GE stated that dimming ballasts will have a lower energy 
use profile, which might be difficult to determine, but it will be less 
than a non-dimming ballast profile of 100 percent output, 100 percent 
of the time. (GE, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 78-79, 88-89; 
CA IOUs, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 89)
    To develop the energy usage profile for dimming ballasts, DOE 
reviewed A Meta-Analysis of Energy Savings from Lighting Controls in 
Commercial Buildings by LBNL.\25\ GE suggested this document as a 
potential source on the effects of controls on lighting systems but 
cautioned that there is a broad range of results from even the same 
control type. (GE, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 86-87) 
Lutron also stated during the public meeting that they would provide 
references in written comments. (Lutron, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 
5 at p. 88) Lutron and NEMA both referenced in written comments an LBNL 
study on energy savings using controls with dimming ballasts. (Lutron, 
No. 10 at p. 3; NEMA, No. 12 at p. 10) The LBNL study referenced in the 
written comments is a different version but includes the same data as 
the LBNL meta-analysis previously cited.\26\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \25\ Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory. A Meta-Analysis of 
Energy Savings from Lighting Controls in Commercial Buildings. 
Available at https://eta.lbl.gov/publications/meta-analysis-energy-savings-lighting.
    \26\ Williams et al. Lighting Controls in Commercial Buildings. 
Leukos: The Journal of the Illuminating Engineering Society. 2012. 
8(3): pp. 161-180. Available at https://eaei.lbl.gov/publications/lighting-controls-commercial.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DOE reviewed the meta-analysis and found that Tables 3 and 4 in the 
LBNL study present the average savings for each control type by 
building and by control type for peer-reviewed and non-peer-reviewed 
papers, respectively. Energy savings greater than 30 percent were 
common from daylighting and personal tuning (controls typically 
utilizing dimming technology).
    Lutron and NEMA stated that dimming ballasts and associated 
controls and sensors have the potential to save energy in the form of a 
reduced load and not solely in the reduction of operating hours. 
(Lutron, No. 10 at p. 3; NEMA, No. 12 at p. 10) DOE agrees and 
developed a duty cycle of operation to characterize the energy use of 
the dimming ballast.
    Southern California Edison (SCE) suggested that DOE consider 
dimming ballasts operating below 50 percent. (SCE, Public Meeting 
Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 38-39) CA IOUs recommended that DOE review 
documents generated for and submitted to CEC's efforts to develop state 
requirements for dimming ballasts. CA IOUs submitted these documents to 
DOE as part of their written comments. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 2) In 
addition, CA IOUs stated that California's duty cycle for fluorescent 
dimming ballasts was designed to coincide with elements in California's 
energy code, Title 24, and involves output at 100 percent, 80 percent, 
and 50 percent light output. (CA IOUs, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 
at p. 86)
    California's analysis assumes that the dimming ballast operates 20 
percent of the time at 100 percent light output, 50 percent of the time 
at 80 percent light output, and 30 percent of the time at 50 percent 
light output.\27\ Compared to 100 percent of the time at 100 percent 
light output, this California duty cycle results in an energy savings 
of 26 percent. In contrast for this preliminary analysis, DOE analyzed 
a different duty cycle. DOE analyzed a duty cycle that yielded energy 
savings closer to the values reported in the LBNL meta-analysis. DOE 
used 10 percent of the time at 100 percent light output, 30 percent of 
the time at 70 percent light output, and 60 percent of the time at 30 
percent light output.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \27\ Table 4.3 Average Energy Use for Qualifying Products. p. 16 
CA IOUS. Dimming Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts. Codes and Standards 
Enhancement (CASE) Initiative for PR2013: Title 20 Standards 
Development. (TN 78109) Updated version dated August 5, 2013. 
Available at https://efiling.energy.ca.gov/Lists/DocketLog.aspx?docketnumber=12-AAER-02B.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Dimming ballasts have very limited use in residential applications. 
Both Lutron and NEEA reiterated the low use of dimming ballasts in 
residential applications. (Lutron, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at 
pp. 87-88; NEEA, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 87) DOE agrees 
and assumed 98 percent of dimming ballasts were in commercial 
applications and 2 percent were in residential applications.
    GE and ULT stated that reduced wattage lamps are not used with 
dimming ballasts because of difficulties with dimming these lamps and 
other reasons. (GE, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 80; ULT, 
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 81-82) Because dimming ballasts 
are compatible with reduced wattage lamps, some dimming ballasts and 
reduced wattage systems are likely in use. DOE accounts for this low 
usage in its weighting of such systems.
4. Tubular LEDs
    ULT stated that although tubular LEDs (TLEDs) are becoming 
prevalent, the ballasts in the field were not designed to operate 
TLEDs. NEMA and ULT highlighted that standards bodies require 
certification that the ballast and given lamp can operate. (ULT, Public 
Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 83; NEMA, Public Meeting Transcript, 
No. 5 at pp. 84-85) Both NEMA and ULT cautioned that some 
incompatibility between the ballast and the TLED may occur in the 
field. NEMA and ULT recommended to not include these lamps in the 
analysis and if necessary address TLEDs separate from the ballast. 
(NEMA, No. 12 at p. 9; ULT, No. 6 at p. 7) DOE agrees with ULT that 
TLEDs are becoming prevalent. DOE also reiterates that the scope of 
this analysis is the fluorescent lamp ballast and only includes TLEDs 
in the analysis because the operation of these lamps by the ballast 
affects the energy use, and that in the field fluorescent lamp ballasts 
are operated, to a degree, with TLEDs.
    ASAP referenced research by other DOE programs that TLEDs operating 
in a luminaire designed for a fluorescent lamp are significantly less 
energy efficient than dedicated LED luminaires. (ASAP, No. 7 at p. 5) 
DOE agrees that differences exist between modified fluorescent 
luminaires using a TLED and a luminaire designed solely to operate 
LEDs. DOE notes that LED luminaires are not part of this analysis.

[[Page 56568]]

    ASAP recommended analyzing the TLED market to evaluate its effect 
on the overall energy savings over time. (ASAP, No. 7 at p. 5) GE and 
Philips stated that the prevalence of TLEDs is growing rapidly. GE 
speculated that TLEDs are currently a low percentage of the overall 
installed base. (GE, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 80; 
Philips, No. 8 at p. 32) DOE includes a change in TLED penetration over 
time in this analysis. As the mixture of lamps operated by the ballast 
changes to include differing amount of TLEDs, the energy use of the 
ballast changes.
    Philips discussed that there is an inverse relationship with the 
use of TLEDs on fluorescent lamp ballasts. As a general rule, the 
combination of fluorescent lamp ballast and TLED results in a lower 
power draw, but the operation of a fluorescent lamp ballast and 
fluorescent lamp results in a greater ballast efficiency. (Philips, No. 
8 at p. 32) Philips also stated that it manufactures a ballast to be 
paired with specific fluorescent lamps and does not know if the ballast 
is being paired with a TLED or if the wattage of the TLED is 14, 15, 17 
or some other wattage value. (Philips, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 
at pp. 83-84) Philips stated that TLEDs are available in the 12 to 17 W 
range and offer significant energy savings when used with compatible 
fluorescent lamp ballasts. (Philips, No. 8 at p. 32) Philips stated 
that the power draw for TLEDs will continue to decrease into the 
future. (Philips, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 82) DOE agrees 
that ballast efficiency can differ for the same ballast operating a 
fluorescent lamp and a TLED. DOE used the operating power for TLEDs in 
the analysis. DOE also analyzed the larger TLED market to determine 
representative values of fluorescent lamp ballasts operating TLEDs.
    DOE seeks comment on the methods to improve DOE's energy-use 
analysis, as well as any data supporting alternate operating hour 
estimates or assumptions regarding dimming of fluorescent lamp 
ballasts. DOE seeks comment on the type, prevalence, and operating hour 
reductions related to the use of lighting controls used separately in 
commercial, industrial, and residential sectors. DOE seeks comment on 
the assumptions and methodology for estimating annual operating hours. 
See section VII.C for a list of issues on which DOE seeks comment. 
Chapter 7 of the NOPD TSD provides details on DOE's energy use analysis 
for fluorescent lamp ballasts.

E. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis

    DOE conducted LCC and PBP analyses to evaluate the economic effects 
on individual consumers of potential energy conservation standards for 
fluorescent lamp ballasts. In particular, DOE performed LCC and PBP 
analyses to evaluate, in part, the savings in operating costs 
throughout the estimated average life of fluorescent lamp ballasts at 
different ELs compared to any associated increase in costs of 
fluorescent lamp ballasts likely to result from standards at each EL. 
The effect of amended energy conservation standards on individual 
consumers usually involves a reduction in operating cost and an 
increase in purchase cost. DOE used the following two metrics to 
measure effects on the consumer:
     The LCC (life-cycle cost) is the total consumer expense of 
an appliance or product over the life of that product, consisting of 
total installed cost (manufacturer selling price, distribution chain 
markups, sales tax, and installation costs) plus operating costs 
(expenses for energy use, maintenance, and repair). To compute the 
operating costs, DOE discounts future operating costs to the time of 
purchase and sums them over the lifetime of the product.
     The PBP (payback period) is the estimated amount of time 
(in years) it takes consumers to recover the increased purchase cost 
(including installation) of a more-efficient product through lower 
operating costs. DOE calculates the PBP by dividing the change in 
purchase cost at higher efficiency levels by the change in annual 
operating cost for the year that amended standards are assumed to take 
effect.
    For any given efficiency level, DOE measures the change in LCC 
relative to the LCC in the no-new-standards case, which reflects the 
estimated efficiency distribution of fluorescent lamp ballasts in the 
absence of new or amended energy conservation standards. Similarly, the 
PBP for a given efficiency level is measured relative to the baseline 
reflecting the efficiencies customers are estimated to select absent an 
amended standard.
    For each considered efficiency level in each product class, DOE 
calculated the LCC and PBP for a nationally representative set of 
potential customers. Fluorescent lamp ballasts are used widely in 
commercial, industrial, and residential settings. For each ballast 
class, DOE identified the types of customers likely to use the 
ballasts, the number of hours per year each customer type would likely 
use the ballasts, and a probability of selection for each customer type 
in the Monte Carlo analysis.
    Inputs to the calculation of total installed cost include the cost 
of the product--which includes manufacturer production costs (MPCs), 
manufacturer markups, retailer and distributor markups, and sales 
taxes--and installation costs. Inputs to the calculation of operating 
expenses include annual energy consumption, energy prices and price 
projections, repair and maintenance costs, product lifetimes, and 
discount rates. DOE created distributions of values for product 
lifetime, energy prices, annual operating hours (which determines 
energy consumption), discount rates, and sales taxes, with 
probabilities attached to each value, to account for their uncertainty 
and variability.
    The computer model DOE uses to calculate the LCC and PBP, which 
incorporates Crystal Ball\TM\, relies on a Monte Carlo simulation to 
incorporate uncertainty and variability into the analysis. The Monte 
Carlo simulations sample input values from the probability 
distributions and FLB user samples. The model calculated the LCC and 
PBP for products at each efficiency level for 10,000 FLB installations 
per simulation run.
    DOE calculated the LCC and PBP for all consumers of fluorescent 
lamp ballasts as if each were to purchase a new product in the expected 
year of required compliance with potential amended standards. Any 
amended standards would apply to fluorescent lamp ballasts manufactured 
3 years after the date on which any amended standard is published. (42 
U.S.C. 6295(m)(4)(A)) For purposes of its analysis, DOE used 2023 as 
the first year of compliance with any amended standards for fluorescent 
lamp ballasts.
    Table IV.12 summarizes the approach and data DOE used to derive 
inputs to the LCC and PBP calculations. The subsections that follow 
provide further discussion. Details of the spreadsheet model, and of 
all the inputs to the LCC and PBP analyses, are contained in chapter 8 
of the NOPD TSD and its appendices.

[[Page 56569]]



 Table IV.12--Summary of Inputs and Methods for the LCC and PBP Analysis
                                    *
------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Inputs                           Source/method
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Product Cost.................  Derived by multiplying product costs from
                                the engineering analysis by (one plus)
                                sales tax rates.
Installation Costs...........  Baseline installation cost determined
                                with data from RSMeans. Assumed no
                                change with efficiency level.
Annual Energy Use............  The total annual energy use multiplied by
                                the hours per year. Average number of
                                hours based 2015 LMC.
Energy Prices................  Based on the Energy Information
                                Administration's (EIA's) Form 861 data
                                for 2017.\28\ Average energy prices
                                determined for 50 states plus the
                                District of Columbia.
Energy Price Trends..........  Based on Annual Energy Outlook 2019
                                (AEO2019) price projections.
Repair and Maintenance Costs.  Assumed no change with efficiency level.
Product Lifetime.............  Average: 12.5 Years for commercial
                                installations (approximately 38,000
                                hours), 12.5 years for outdoor
                                installations (approximately 41,000
                                hours), 11.4 years for industrial
                                installations (50,000 hours), and 15
                                years for residential installations
                                (approximately 10,800 hours).
Discount Rates...............  For residential product class, the
                                calculations involve identifying all
                                possible debt or asset classes that
                                might be used to purchase the considered
                                appliances, or might be affected
                                indirectly. Primary data source was the
                                Federal Reserve Board's Survey of
                                Consumer Finances. For other product
                                classes, the calculations involve
                                estimating weighted average cost of
                                capital for large numbers of companies
                                and using the results to develop
                                discount rate distributions. Primary
                                data were from the Damodaran online web
                                site \29\ and the Federal Reserve
                                Board.\30\
Rebound Effect...............  Rebound is not assumed to be present
                                among FLB consumers. Most consumers are
                                commercial and industrial consumers, and
                                the FLB/light user tends to not see the
                                bills so there would be no perceived
                                change in the cost of using the light.
Compliance Date..............  2023.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* References for the data sources mentioned in this table are provided
  in the sections following the table or in chapter 8 of the NOPD TSD.

1. Product Cost
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \28\ DOE used Average Price by State by Provider (EIA-826), 
sorted for Total Electric Industry, obtained from the EIA web page 
https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data/state/.
    \29\ See the data page on Damodaran Online, http://
pages.stern.nyu.edu/~adamodar.
    \30\ In addition to the previously referenced Survey of Consumer 
Finances, DOE used interest rate data obtained from the Federal 
Reserve Bank of St. Louis' FRED Economic Data tool found at https://fred.stlouisfed.org/.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As noted in section IV.C, DOE rulemaking analyses typically 
calculate consumer product costs by multiplying MPCs developed in the 
engineering analysis by the markups along with sales taxes. For 
fluorescent lamp ballasts, the engineering analysis determined customer 
prices directly; therefore, for the LCC analysis, the only adjustment 
was to add sales taxes.
    In prior energy conservation standards rulemakings, DOE estimated 
the total installed costs per unit for equipment and then assumed that 
costs remain constant throughout the analysis period. This assumption 
is conservative because equipment costs tend to decrease over time. In 
2011, DOE published a notice of data availability (NODA) titled 
Equipment Price Forecasting in Energy Conservation Standards Analysis. 
76 FR 9696 (Feb. 22, 2011). In the NODA, DOE proposed a methodology for 
determining whether equipment prices have trended downward in real 
terms. The methodology examines so-called price or experiential 
learning, wherein, with ever-increasing experience with the production 
of a product, manufacturers are able to reduce their production costs 
through innovations in technology and process.
    Consistent with the February 2011 NODA, DOE examined historical 
price data specific to electronic ballasts. As discussed in Chapter 8 
and Appendix 8C of the NOPD TSD, this analysis yielded learning 
coefficients indicating a 14.8 percent decrease in ballast prices for 
every doubling in cumulative ballast shipments. Although this price 
trend was incorporated into the LCC model, it was excluded from the LCC 
results presented in this NOPD. With shipments falling from historical 
values, cumulative shipments do not double relative to 2015 (the last 
year of historical data) in any shipments scenario, and shipments go to 
zero in one scenario essentially at the projected start date for 
amended standards. See section IV.F.1 for further details on shipments. 
Given this range of possible shipments, for the LCC results presented 
in this NOPD, the price change over time was assumed to be zero; or, in 
other words, the price trend coefficient was set to 1.00 for all years 
of the LCC (and NIA) analyses.
    Lamp manufacturing is also subject to the learning process. The 
focus of this NOPD is the fluorescent lamp ballast. However, 
fluorescent lamp ballasts are designed to operate fluorescent lamps and 
therefore, the cost analysis accounts for the lamp-and-ballast system. 
The analysis assumes a differing mixture of general service fluorescent 
lamps (GSFL) and TLEDs operated by the ballasts. TLED prices are 
expected to be affected by price learning and are expected to decline 
significantly over the next 3 years. Therefore, to better represent the 
total installed cost of the ballast and lamp systems, price learning 
was applied to the lamps operated by the fluorescent lamp ballasts.
    Because this proposed determination is not analyzing lamps, lamp 
shipments and price information were not collected for this rulemaking. 
Rather, price trend information for lamps was developed from the final 
rule for the general service fluorescent lamps (GSFL) standards 
rulemaking published in January 2015. 80 FR 4041 (January 26, 2015). As 
discussed in this FLB NOPD TSD Appendix 8C, the GSFL price trends were 
incorporated into the LCC analysis to account for learning in the lamp 
manufacturing process. The distribution of lamps selected for use by 
consumers is not expected to differ for ballasts at different 
efficiency levels.
2. Installation Cost
    Installation cost includes labor, overhead, and any miscellaneous 
materials and parts needed to install the product. DOE used data from 
RSMeans to estimate the baseline installation cost for fluorescent lamp 
ballasts. For installation and repair costs, both NEMA and ULT found 
the ones discussed in DOE's Framework document to be reasonable. (NEMA, 
No. 12 at p. 11; ULT, No. 6 at p. 9) Philips also stated that it is 
unlikely that installation costs would change for ballasts at different 
efficiency levels. (Philips, No. 8 at p. 35) However, ULT cautioned 
that if new ballasts required as part of a potential standard changed 
in size, maintenance costs could change.

[[Page 56570]]

(ULT, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 96; ULT, No. 6 at p. 9) 
DOE agrees and uses the same installation costs for ballasts at each 
efficiency level. Per the engineering analysis, the ballasts at the 
different efficiency levels are not expected to change in size at the 
different efficiency levels and therefore would not affect installation 
or maintenance costs as suggested by ULT. DOE found no evidence that 
installation costs would be affected with increased efficiency levels.
3. Annual Energy Consumption
    DOE determined the energy consumption for fluorescent lamp ballasts 
at different efficiency levels using the approach described previously 
in section IV.D of this document.
4. Energy Prices
    DOE derived average annual electricity prices for 50 states plus 
the District of Columbia using data from the EIA's Form EIA-861 annual 
survey.\31\ EIA calculated average electric prices by dividing total 
electric revenues by total kWh energy sales, using data aggregated by 
customer class and by state. The NOPD analysis used the data for 2017, 
with prices adjusted to 2018 dollars.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \31\ Available at https://www.eia.gov/electricity/data.php#sales.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    To estimate energy prices in future years, DOE multiplied the 
average state-level electricity prices by a projection of annual change 
in regional electricity prices in the Annual Energy Outlook 2019 
(AEO2019), which has an end year of 2050.\32\ The AEO includes price 
projections by Census regions, which were used for the analyses 
presented herein. To estimate future electricity prices, DOE uses the 
price index for the regions corresponding to each state. To estimate 
price trends after 2050, DOE used the average annual rate of change in 
prices from 2040 through 2050.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \32\ U.S. Department of Energy--Energy Information 
Administration. Annual Energy Outlook 2019 with Projections to 2050. 
2019. Washington, DC. (AEO2019). Available at https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Both ASAP and ULT stated that electricity prices can vary both 
between utilities as well as a result of larger national trends like 
distributed generation or Congressional requirements. ASAP suggested an 
analysis that addressed uncertainty in the electricity market. (ASAP, 
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 94; ULT, No. 6 at p. 6) DOE 
accounted for considerable electricity price variability by using data 
from 50 states plus the District of Columbia. Although this represents 
a higher level of aggregation than utility-by-utility, it reflects the 
considerable variability in electricity prices in the analysis and it 
captures some of the policy and other trends alluded to by ASAP and ULT 
insofar as the influx of distributed generation typically follows 
state-level policies and legislation promoting such.
5. Maintenance and Repair Costs
    Repair costs are associated with repairing or replacing product 
components that have failed in an appliance; maintenance costs are 
associated with maintaining the operation of the product. Typically, 
small incremental increases in product efficiency produce no, or only 
minor, changes in repair and maintenance costs compared to baseline 
efficiency products. For this NOPD, DOE modeled ballasts as not being 
repaired, and maintenance costs as lamp replacement costs only. Philips 
agreed with DOE's proposal during the framework public meeting and in 
written comments that ballasts are not repaired. (Philips, Public 
Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 95; Philips, No. 8 at p. 35) DOE agrees 
and did not include ballast repair costs in the LCC analysis.
6. Product Lifetime
    For fluorescent lamp ballasts, DOE used lifetime estimates from 
manufacturer datasheets. In the Framework document, DOE estimated a 
life of 50,000 hours for fluorescent lamp ballasts. Both NEMA and ULT 
stated that the standard warranty period within the lighting industry 
for fluorescent lamp ballasts is 3 to 5 years, depending on 
application. (NEMA, No. 12 at p. 11; ULT, No. 6 at p. 9) Philips stated 
they use 50,000 hours as useful life, but in certain circumstances 
thermal effects can reduce this rated life value. Philips speculated 
that, depending on the operating hours of the ballast, this translates 
to 10-15 years as a reasonable estimate for FLB life. (Philips, No. 8 
at p. 35) The number of years can vary in operation, and DOE used a 
life value in total number of years rather than solely relying on 
operating hours. For this analysis, DOE used a 12.5-year average 
lifetime for the commercial sector, 11.4-year average lifetime for the 
industrial sector, and 12.5-year average lifetime for the outdoor 
sector. Combining DOE's estimate of 50,000 hours and the average 
operating hours for fluorescent lamps in the commercial and industrial 
sectors yielded average ballast lifetimes of 16.6 years and 11.4 years, 
respectively. However, 16.6 years is significantly longer than the 
lifetime of commercial ballasts used in the 2011 Ballast Rule. For that 
final rule, DOE used 12.5 years, a value DOE found consistent with the 
literature at the time of the analyses, and consistent with the comment 
from Phillips. (Philips, No. 8 at p. 35) DOE has found no literature 
confirming that the product lifetime would increase by 33 percent when 
measured in years and focused instead on searching for evidence 
contradicting the lifetime of 12.5 years. No such evidence was 
identified. Thus, for the NOPD DOE assumed commercial ballasts would 
have a 12.5-year average lifetime which, when multiplied by the average 
commercial sector operating hours per year, yields a lifetime of 
approximately 38,000 hours.
    Replacement of fluorescent lamps have to be considered because it 
is a cost that will be incurred by the consumer over the course of the 
life of the fluorescent lamp ballast. GE stated that in contrast to 
dimming incandescent lamps, dimming fluorescent lamps does not extend 
lamp life. In fact, in some cases if not done properly, life can be 
negatively affected. Overall, GE stated to not increase lamp life for 
lamps operated on dimming ballasts compared to non-dimming ballasts. 
(GE, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 95) Philips stated that 
without knowing the extent of ballast modifications to meet a potential 
new or amended standard, it was difficult to predict the effect on lamp 
life. (Philips, No. 8 at p. 35) ASAP stated that the typical operating 
life of a T8 fluorescent lamp is 20,000 hours and the advertised 
lifespan range of TLED is 50,000 to 80,000 hours. (ASAP, No. 7 at p. 5) 
DOE does not expect the fluorescent lamp life to extend as a result of 
modifications to the ballasts. The life of the fluorescent lamps used 
in the LCC analysis can be found in the engineering analysis. DOE used 
a life of 50,000 hours for the TLEDs used in the analysis.
7. Discount Rates
    In the calculation of LCC, DOE applies discount rates appropriate 
to commercial, industrial, and residential consumers to estimate the 
present value of future operating costs. DOE estimated a distribution 
of discount rates for fluorescent lamp ballasts based on consumer 
financing costs and the opportunity cost of consumer funds.
    DOE applies weighted average discount rates calculated from 
consumer debt and asset data, rather than marginal or implicit discount 
rates.\33\ DOE notes

[[Page 56571]]

that the LCC does not analyze the product purchase decision, so the 
implicit discount rate is not relevant in this model. The LCC estimates 
NPV over the lifetime of the product, so the appropriate discount rate 
will reflect the general opportunity cost of household or business 
funds, taking this time scale into account. Given the long time frame 
modeled in the LCC, the application of a marginal interest rate 
associated with an initial source of funds is inaccurate. Regardless of 
the method of purchase, consumers are expected to continue to rebalance 
their debt and asset holdings over the LCC analysis period, based on 
the restrictions consumers face in their debt payment requirements and 
the relative size of the interest rates available on debts and assets. 
DOE estimates the aggregate effect of this rebalancing using the 
historical distribution of debts and assets.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \33\ The implicit discount rate is inferred from a consumer 
purchase decision between two otherwise identical goods with 
different first cost and operating cost. It is the interest rate 
that equates the increment of first cost to the difference in net 
present value of lifetime operating cost, incorporating the 
influence of several factors: Transaction costs, risk premiums and 
response to uncertainty, time preferences, and interest rates at 
which a consumer is able to borrow or lend.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    To establish residential discount rates for the LCC analysis, DOE 
identified all relevant household debt or asset classes in order to 
approximate a consumer's opportunity cost of funds related to appliance 
energy cost savings. It estimated the average percentage shares of the 
various types of debt and equity by household income group using data 
from the Federal Reserve Board's Survey of Consumer Finances \34\ (SCF) 
for 1995, 1998, 2001, 2004, 2007, 2010, 2013, and 2016. Using the SCF 
and other sources, DOE developed a distribution of rates for each type 
of debt and asset by income group to represent the rates that may apply 
in the year in which amended standards would take effect. In the 
Crystal Ball\TM\ analyses, for each of the 10,000 simulations, the 
model selects an income group and then selects a discount rate from the 
distribution for that group.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \34\ Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. Survey of 
Consumer Finances. Available at http://www.federalreserve.gov/PUBS/oss/oss2/scfindex.html.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    For commercial and industrial consumers, DOE used the cost of 
capital to estimate the present value of cash flows to be derived from 
a typical company project or investment. Most companies use both debt 
and equity capital to fund investments, so the cost of capital is the 
weighted-average cost to the firm of equity and debt financing. This 
corporate finance approach is referred to as the weighted-average cost 
of capital. DOE used currently available economic data in developing 
discount rates. See chapter 8 of the NOPD TSD for details on the 
development of consumer discount rates.
8. Energy Efficiency Distribution in the No-New-Standards Case
    To accurately estimate the share of consumers that would be 
affected by a potential energy conservation standard at a particular 
efficiency level, DOE's LCC analysis considered the projected 
distribution (market shares) of product efficiencies under the no-new-
standards case (i.e., the case without amended energy conservation 
standards).
    To estimate the energy efficiency distribution of fluorescent lamp 
ballasts for 2023, DOE analyzed the distribution of ballasts in the 
databases used in the engineering analysis. For the non-dimming 
ballasts, the main source of information is the CCMS database. For non-
dimming ballasts, DOE relied on product offerings in manufacturer 
catalogs. See chapter 8 of the NOPD TSD for the estimated efficiency 
distributions.
9. Payback Period Analysis
    The PBP is the amount of time it takes the consumer to recover the 
additional installed cost of more-efficient products, compared to 
baseline products, through energy cost savings. PBPs are expressed in 
years. PBPs that exceed the life of the product mean that the increased 
total installed cost is not recovered in reduced operating expenses.
    The inputs to the PBP calculation for each efficiency level are the 
change in total installed cost of the product and the change in the 
first-year annual operating expenditures relative to the baseline. The 
PBP calculation uses the same inputs as the LCC analysis, except that 
discount rates are not needed.
    EPCA, as amended, establishes a rebuttable presumption that a 
standard is economically justified if the Secretary finds that the 
additional cost to the consumer of purchasing a product complying with 
an energy conservation standard level will be less than three times the 
value of the first year's energy savings resulting from the standard, 
as calculated under the applicable test procedure. (42 U.S.C. 
6295(o)(2)(B)(iii)) For each considered efficiency level, DOE 
determined the value of the first year's energy savings by calculating 
the energy savings in accordance with the applicable DOE test 
procedure, and multiplying those savings by the average energy price 
projection for the year in which compliance with the amended standards 
would be required.

F. Shipments Analysis

    DOE uses projections of annual product shipments to calculate the 
national impacts of potential amended energy conservation standards on 
energy use, NPV, and future manufacturer cash flows.\35\ The shipments 
model takes an accounting approach in tracking market shares of each 
product class and the vintage of units in the stock. Stock accounting 
uses product shipments as inputs to estimate the age distribution of 
in-service product stocks for all years. The age distribution of in-
service product stocks is a key input to calculations of both the NES 
and NPV, because operating costs for any year depend on the age 
distribution of the stock. DOE received many comments on the shipments 
and trends related to fluorescent lamp ballasts. Overall, the market is 
declining; however, DOE received comments on the different rates of 
decline.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \35\ DOE uses data on manufacturer shipments as a proxy for 
national sales, as aggregate data on sales are lacking. In general, 
one would expect a close correspondence between shipments and sales.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Philips stated that DOE should be working with NEMA in order to 
obtain market shipment data and, if needed, Philips can work with NEMA 
to supply the data. Philips also stated that they would provide data to 
DOE during the interview process. (Philips, No. 8 at pp. 12-13) DOE did 
receive data from NEMA in written comments that provided indexed values 
of shipments for a recent set of years. (NEMA, No. 12, at p. 4) DOE 
also used aggregated data gathered from manufacturers to calibrate the 
current volume of shipments.
    Philips suggested resources for projecting lighting shipments, not 
just FLB shipments, from Strategies Unlimited, other DOE publications, 
and NEMA. (Philips, No. 8 at p. 39) DOE reviewed the materials 
suggested by Philips as well as other data sources to generate shipment 
projections.
    NEMA, Philips, and ULT provided in written comments a graph of 
fluorescent lamp ballasts indexed to 2010 and shipments through 2014 as 
a percentage of the index year. This figure indicates a declining 
market for fluorescent lamp ballasts. (NEMA, No. 12 at pp. 4; Philips, 
No. 8 at p. 39; ULT, No. 6 at pp. 3-4) NEMA attributes the decline to 
solid-state lighting and expects the decline to continue into the 
future. (NEMA, No. 12 at p. 11) NEMA and ULT speculated that based on 
the data in the figure and certain fit functions that circa 2018 that 
FLB shipments would end. (NEMA, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 
9-11; ULT, No. 6 at pp. 3-4) However, NEMA did speculate that although 
an analysis of the data provided suggests an end of the

[[Page 56572]]

FLB market in 2018, it is probably not realistic. (NEMA, Public Meeting 
Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 9-11) DOE agrees that the market for 
fluorescent lamp ballasts is declining. DOE modeled a rapid decline in 
shipment scenario #1 based on these data provided. NEMA suggested that 
the ballast shipments curtailing in 2018 was based on 2010 to 2014 
shipment data and a second degree polynomial fit standard S-curve shape 
function. (NEMA, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 9) Shipment 
scenario #1 was modeled as a similar S-curve shaped function with 
shipments curtailing shortly after the start of the analysis period.
    Philips stated that the submitted figure indicates the FLB market 
is declining at a fast rate. Philips speculated that the market was 
declining at a rate of about 20 percent per year. According to Philips, 
LED technologies are competing with fluorescent light sources to 
illuminate the same spaces and LED prices are decreasing whereas 
fluorescent technologies are mature. This is one of the reasons for 
declining FLB shipments. (Philips, No. 8 at pp. 16, 39) Philips also 
commented that it has reduced the number of its factories manufacturing 
fluorescent lamp ballasts from five to one. (Philips, Public Meeting 
Transcript, No. 5 at p. 55) Lutron stated that FLB shipments are 
declining at an accelerating rate and potential new amended standards 
can only affect shipments. (Lutron, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at 
p. 41) DOE agrees that the market for fluorescent lamp ballasts is 
declining. DOE modeled a rate of decline similar to the 20-percent rate 
suggested by Philips in shipment scenario #2 based on the data 
provided.
    NEEA mentioned that 10 percent of lamps sales are T12 lamps. 
Although T12 lamps are less efficient, as legacy products they can have 
a significant life and sizeable volume of shipments. NEEA also stated 
that ballasts have a longer life than fluorescent lamps. (NEEA, Public 
Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 40-41) GE acknowledged that although 
certain ballasts have long lives and there might be legacy products 
still in operation, the lighting industry is currently at the trailing 
end of those systems. (GE, Public Meeting Transcript, No.5 at p. 55)
    ULT stated during the framework public meeting that the retrofit 
market is very small and little retrofitting is occurring in the 
market. (ULT, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 105-106)
    ULT stated that LED lighting penetration is increasing in the new 
construction market, and ULT expected 90 to 95 percent penetration near 
2017. Beyond new construction, rebates for fluorescent lamp ballasts 
and FLB retrofit kits are virtually nonexistent as utilities and other 
energy efficiency programs are incentivizing LED technologies. (ULT, 
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 104-106)
    NEMA and ULT stated that there is no indication of growth in the 
FLB market and every segment is declining. Both NEMA and ULT suggested 
that new construction is moving to SSL and by the effective date of a 
potential standard all new construction will utilize SSL. Rebates for 
fluorescent systems have declined and in some markets disappeared. Both 
NEMA and ULT expected these trends to continue through the analysis 
period of the potential rule. (NEMA, No. 12 at p. 11; ULT, No. 6 at p. 
9) DOE agrees and has modeled all shipment scenarios as declining 
markets.
    CA IOUs stated that it is generally accepted that the LED market is 
growing quickly as LED performance improves and prices come down, and 
that as a result, LEDs are generally expected to expand into most 
applications in the coming years. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 11) DOE agrees 
and has modeled all shipment scenarios as declining markets.
    ASAP stated that the widespread installation of UL Type A TLEDs 
could create an extended ``hybrid'' phase where an LED light source is 
driven by a ballast designed for a fluorescent light source. (ASAP, No. 
7 at p. 5) DOE agrees that this could be a possibility. Shipment 
scenarios #3 and #4 differ in rates of decline partially to address 
this aspect of the use of UL Type A TLEDs, which are designed to 
operate on existing fluorescent lamp ballasts.
1. Shipment Scenarios Modeled
    DOE agrees with the commenters that FLB shipments are declining. 
DOE modeled four different no-new-standards shipment scenarios. These 
scenarios include the following:
    (1) Scenario #1--declining shipments that all terminate in 2024. 
This scenario is based on the data supplied by NEMA and others 
depicting the decline between 2010 and 2014. The scenario also assumes 
that all new construction migrates to other light sources than 
fluorescent technology.
    (2) Scenario #2--declining shipments that all terminate in 2040. 
This scenario is based on comments from manufacturers during the 
interview process and written comments of a reduction in shipments of 
10 to 20 percent per year. This scenario assumes that most new 
construction is utilizing other light sources besides fluorescent 
technology.
    (3) Scenario #3--declining shipments that approach zero near the 
end of the analysis period. This scenario is based on data of shipments 
of other lighting technologies publicly available. The rate of decline 
is less compared to the previous scenarios partially also to address 
comments received about UL Type A TLEDs operating on fluorescent lamp 
ballasts.
    (4) Scenario #4--declining shipments that terminate near the end of 
the analysis period. This scenario is based on a slower decline rate in 
the initial part of the analysis period.
    DOE presents in this proposed determination the results of analysis 
for each of the shipment scenarios, but shipment scenario #3 is the 
Reference Case. This scenario is consistent with other estimates of 
fluorescent technology in the analysis period.
    Beyond the no-new-standards case, DOE also received comments about 
potential standards-induced changes to shipments and thus the effects 
on NIA. CA IOUs stated that DOE should account for additional energy 
savings resulting from an accelerated shift to LED lighting induced by 
more stringent standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts. (CA IOUs, No. 
10 at p. 11) Philips also commented that it would be worthwhile to 
consider the effect of a new ballast energy efficiency rule if ballast 
declines continued at a faster rate. (Philips, No. 8 at p. 39) Philips 
speculated that if the incremental ballast price from ballast 
modifications necessary for compliance to a potential new and amended 
standard does not pay back within 2 years using the incremental energy 
savings, customers will choose something else and in reality it will 
lead to greater LED adoption. (Philips, No. 8 at pp. 36-37)
    Lutron stated that FLB shipments are declining at an accelerating 
rate and potential new amended standards can only affect shipments. 
(Lutron, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 41) CA IOUs stated that 
first costs can still be a barrier to LED adoption and if potential new 
energy efficiency standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts increase the 
costs for the ballasts, the result will likely accelerate the shift 
towards more efficient LEDs. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at p. 11) NEEA stated 
during the framework public meeting that shipment rates of different 
technologies will depend on the price relationship of the different 
technologies. (NEEA, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 99-101)

[[Page 56573]]

    DOE agrees that there is a possibility that standards could induce 
consumers to opt for different technologies other than fluorescent lamp 
ballasts. Utilizing the shipments model, DOE modeled within the NIA 
model a potential standards-induced shift to SSL.
2. Dimming Ballasts
    NEMA and manufacturers stated that the dimming ballast market was 
small, not growing, and possibly that dimming ballasts would not be 
shipped by the start of the analysis period. In contrast, ASAP, SCE, 
and CA IOUs speculated growth in the dimming ballast market. (CA IOUs, 
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 24, 106)
    NEMA stated that dimmable linear fluorescent lamp ballasts are 
roughly 2 percent of the overall FLB market. NEMA speculated that this 
small portion did not represent significant energy savings potential. 
Dimming ballast shipments have been declining for the last 5 years, 
according to NEMA and Lutron. (Lutron, No. 9 at p. 2; NEMA, No. 12 at 
pp. 3-4, 11) NEMA believes that dimming ballast shipments will continue 
to decline into the future like all other linear FLB shipments. 
Finally, Lutron and NEMA speculated that standards on dimming ballasts 
may reduce shipments of ballasts. (Lutron, No. 9 at p. 2; NEMA, No. 12 
at pp. 3-4, 11)
    GE stated that other than in California, that most retrofits of FLB 
systems do not include dimming ballasts. GE discussed during the 
framework public meeting that California was considering modifying the 
requirements of dimming ballasts in retrofit applications in Title 24 
because of claims of negative effects on the retrofit market. (GE, 
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 25-26)
    Lutron commented during the public meeting that the requirements in 
California's Title 24 had changed and the adoption of dimming ballasts 
in retrofit applications is unknown at this time. (Lutron, Public 
Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 27-28) During the public meeting, 
Lutron stated that they believe it is prudent for DOE to assume that 
all dimming ballasts that are going to be available after the rule 
becomes effective are already in the market. (Lutron, Public Meeting 
Transcript, No. 5 at p. 104) In contrast, during the framework public 
meeting, CA IOUs stated that they expected the absolute number or the 
percentage of dimming FLB shipments to increase. (CA IOUs, Public 
Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 106)
    ULT commented that although California's Title 24 required the 
installation of dimming ballasts, sites were installing TLEDs to not 
trigger the energy code. ULT stated that as a result, there would be 
probably fewer dimming systems than compared to previous analysis. 
(ULT, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 29-31)
    ASAP stated that the revised California Title 24 would dramatically 
alter the market for fluorescent lamp ballasts within California, 
resulting in greater sales of ballasts capable of dimming below 50 
percent full light output. ASAP expected the change in California to 
affect other states and that dimming ballasts will be in greater 
demand. (ASAP, No. 7 at p. 2)
    Utility rebates for most fluorescent lamp ballasts have 
disappeared, but SCE did state that some rebates still exist for 
dimming ballasts as they related to demand response. (SCE, Public 
Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 109-110)
    CA IOUs stated during the framework public meeting that the dimming 
ballast requirements within California's Title 24 is having a major 
effect on the dimming ballast market within California. The 2016 
version of Title 24 essentially requires new construction to use linear 
fluorescent and that the ballast be a dimming ballast. Title 24 
installation of dimming ballast requirements also apply to retrofit 
applications. (CA IOUs, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 23-24) 
NEEA also added during the framework public meeting that the four 
states in the Pacific Northwest might have dimming ballast requirements 
similar to Title 24 by the time any potential rule goes into effect. 
(NEEA, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 24) NEMA stated that they 
would review its data to see if it could determine any effects on 
dimming ballast shipments as a result of the Title 24 requirements. 
(NEMA, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 25)
    As stated earlier, DOE agrees with commenters that the overall FLB 
market is declining. Although dimming ballasts may be a smaller portion 
of the entire FLB market, DOE does not have enough information to 
indicate a significantly different rate of decline for dimming ballasts 
compared to the larger FLB market. DOE modeled the same rate of decline 
for dimming ballasts as other similar non-dimming fluorescent lamp 
ballasts operating the same type and quantity of lamps in each of the 
four different scenarios.
    GE speculated that if a potential new standard resulted in a very 
expensive fluorescent dimming ballast, it would accelerate new 
construction use of LEDs if they wanted a system that dims. (GE, Public 
Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 101) Lutron speculated that setting 
efficiency standards too aggressively will only hasten the decline of 
dimming ballasts. (Lutron, No. 9 at p. 3) DOE agrees that potential 
standards could induce a shift from dimming fluorescent lamp ballasts 
to solid-state lighting. As part of the NIA analysis, DOE included a 
secondary analysis of a standards-induced shift from dimming ballasts 
to SSL.
3. Tubular LEDs
    During the framework public meeting, SCE stated that many lighting 
customers are focused on inexpensive solutions and often consider 
retrofitting options rather than replacing the entire system. 
Specifically, replacing fluorescent lamps with TLEDs is an option that 
many customers consider. (SCE, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 
39) CA IOUs agreed with other commenters that LED products are 
increasing across many applications, but fluorescent lighting is still 
prevalent across many sectors. Many manufacturers offer UL Type A TLEDs 
that are designed to operate on existing fluorescent lamp ballasts and 
thus the potential need for fluorescent lamp ballasts to exist. (CA 
IOUs, No. 10 at pp. 1-2)
    DOE agrees that TLEDs are currently desired as a low-cost initial 
energy option and that the use of TLEDs is growing. DOE included in the 
NIA analysis a greater penetration of UL Type A TLEDs through the 
course of the analysis period.
    GE views the retrofitting of fluorescent luminaires with TLEDs as a 
short-term solution while the larger new installation market moves to 
dedicated LED systems. In 10 or 15 years, more dedicated LED systems 
will be installed and fewer TLEDs will be retrofitting fluorescent 
luminaires. (GE, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 39) ASAP also 
speculates that if TLEDs have lifetimes equal or longer than the 
lifetimes of the fluorescent lamp ballasts that operate them, the TLEDs 
could disrupt the normal fluorescent maintenance and replacement cycle. 
Currently ballast failure in a fluorescent luminaire can present a 
cost-effective opportunity for luminaire replacement with a LED 
luminaire. However, if the fluorescent lamps have been replaced with 
TLEDs and the ballast fails at a later point, this might no longer 
present a cost-effective opportunity to convert the fixture to a 
dedicated LED luminaire. ASAP cautioned that this might increase the 
volume of UL Type A TLEDs that operate on a fluorescent lamp ballast. 
(ASAP, No. 7 at p. 5)
    ASAP stated that the widespread installation of TLEDs could create 
an

[[Page 56574]]

extended ``hybrid'' phase where a LED light source is driven by a 
ballast designed for a fluorescent light source. (ASAP, No. 7 at p. 5) 
Philips stated that retrofit jobs using TLEDs to replace linear 
fluorescent lamps is a big trend, noting that the prevalence of TLEDs 
operating on fluorescent lamp ballasts is growing rapidly. (Philips, 
No. 8 at pp. 12, 38)
    DOE agrees that the use of UL Type A TLEDs can achieve early energy 
savings that might prolong the conversion of the lighting system to 
other technologies. DOE also agrees that this might encourage sites 
using UL Type A TLEDs to replace a failed fluorescent lamp ballast with 
another fluorescent lamp ballast to continue the life of the lighting 
system. Shipment scenarios #3 and #4 incorporate the prolonged 
shipments of fluorescent lamp ballasts to service systems modified to 
use UL Type A TLEDs.
    Lutron did not believe that there was a scenario where a consumer 
would purchase a TLED and a fluorescent lamp ballast in a new system. 
(Lutron, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 84) DOE disagrees with 
Lutron. DOE's research indicates at least a few UL Type A TLED 
manufacturers provide warranties for UL Type A TLEDs that are directly 
related to the installation of a new ballast. However, DOE stipulates 
that this is rare combination and that the major benefit of UL Type A 
TLEDs is that this type TLED can operate on the existing fluorescent 
lamp ballasts, thus reducing initial costs of installation.
    DOE seeks comment whether the shipment scenarios under various 
policy scenarios are reasonable and likely to occur. DOE seeks comment 
and information on whether dimming ballasts should have a different 
rate of decline than the similar non-dimming fluorescent lamp ballasts. 
DOE seeks comments on which shipment scenario most accurately 
characterizes future dimming FLB shipments. DOE seeks comments on which 
of the four scenarios best characterize future shipments of fluorescent 
lamp ballasts. See section VII.C for a list of issues on which DOE 
seeks comment. Chapter 9 of the NOPD TSD provides details on DOE's 
shipments analysis for fluorescent lamp ballasts.

G. National Impact Analysis

    The NIA assesses the NES and the NPV from a national perspective of 
total consumer costs and savings that would be expected to result from 
amended standards at specific efficiency levels.\36\ (``Consumer'' in 
this context refers to consumers of the product being regulated.) DOE 
calculates the NES and NPV for the potential standard levels considered 
based on projections of annual product shipments, along with the annual 
energy consumption and total installed cost data from the energy use 
and LCC analyses. For the present analysis, DOE projected the energy 
savings, operating cost savings, product costs, and NPV of consumer 
benefits over the lifetime of fluorescent lamp ballasts sold from 2023 
through 2052.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \36\ The NIA accounts for impacts in the 50 states and 
Washington, D.C.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    DOE evaluates the effects of amended standards by comparing a case 
without such standards with standards-case projections. The no-new-
standards case characterizes energy use and consumer costs for each 
product class in the absence of amended energy conservation standards. 
For this projection, DOE considers historical trends in efficiency and 
various forces that are likely to affect the mix of efficiencies over 
time. DOE compares the no-new-standards case with projections 
characterizing the market for each product class if DOE adopted amended 
standards at specific energy efficiency levels (i.e., the ELs or 
standards cases) for that class. For the standards cases, DOE considers 
how a given standard would likely affect the market shares of products 
with efficiencies greater than the standard.
    DOE uses a spreadsheet model to calculate the energy savings and 
the national consumer costs and savings from each EL. Interested 
parties can review DOE's analyses by changing various input quantities 
within the spreadsheet. The NIA spreadsheet model uses typical values 
(as opposed to probability distributions) as inputs.
    Table IV.13 summarizes the inputs and methods DOE used for the NIA 
analysis for the NOPD. Discussion of these inputs and methods follows 
the table. See chapter 10 of the NOPD TSD for details.

   Table IV.13--Summary of Inputs and Methods for the National Impact
                                Analysis
------------------------------------------------------------------------
            Inputs                               Method
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Shipments....................  Annual shipments from shipments model.
Modeled Compliance Date of     2023.
 Standard.
Efficiency Trends............  No-new-standards case. Standards cases.
Annual Energy Consumption per  Annual weighted-average values are a
 Unit.                          function of energy use at each EL.
Total Installed Cost per Unit  Annual weighted-average values are a
                                function of cost at each EL.
                                Incorporates projection of future
                                product prices based on historical data.
Annual Energy Cost per Unit..  Annual weighted-average values as a
                                function of the annual energy
                                consumption per unit and energy prices.
Repair and Maintenance Cost    Annual values do not change with
 per Unit.                      efficiency level.
Energy Prices................  AEO2019 projections (to 2050) and
                                extrapolation through 2061.
Energy Site-to-Source and FFC  A time-series conversion factor based on
 Conversion.                    AEO2019 and/or the NEMS model.
Discount Rate................  3 percent and 7 percent.
Present Year.................  2018.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ULT stated that the NIA should rely on input from manufacturers. 
(ULT, No. 6, at p. 10) Input from manufacturers as well as others was 
captured via the comment process, and DOE considered the comments in 
the development of the inputs that affect the NIA. Interviews were 
conducted with manufacturers as part of the preliminary analysis 
process, and DOE incorporated aggregated feedback during these 
interviews into the inputs that feed the NIA.
    During the framework public meeting, CA IOUs requested that DOE 
provide interim values for statewide energy savings and unit savings 
within the model. (CA IOUs, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 
111-112) NEMA also requested modifications to the typical NIA models 
during the framework public meeting. NEMA

[[Page 56575]]

stated that for other rules, the NIA model is locked and certain inputs 
cannot be modified or model elements are not readily understandable in 
the TSD. (NEMA, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 116-118) DOE 
acknowledges these requests. The LCC provides unit-level savings. DOE 
also provides detail as to how the model works and how it can be 
modified in chapter 10 and appendix 10A of the NOPD TSD.
1. Product Efficiency Trends
    A key component of the NIA is the trend in energy efficiency 
projected for the no-new-standards case and each of the standards 
cases. Section IV.E.8 of this document describes how DOE developed an 
energy efficiency distribution for the no-new-standards case (which 
yields a shipment-weighted average efficiency) for each of the 
considered product classes for the year of anticipated compliance with 
an amended standard.
    For the standards cases, DOE used a ``roll-up'' scenario to 
establish the shipment-weighted efficiency for the year that standards 
are assumed to become effective (2023). In this scenario, the market 
shares of products in the no-new-standards case that do not meet the 
standard under consideration would ``roll up'' to meet the amended 
standard level, and the market share of products above the standard 
would remain unchanged.
    ASAP recommended analyzing the TLED market to evaluate its effect 
on the overall energy savings over time. (ASAP, No. 7 at p. 5) DOE 
includes a change in UL Type A TLED penetration over time in this 
analysis. As the mixture of lamps operated by the ballast changes to 
include differing amount of UL Type A TLEDs, the NES is affected.
    CA IOUs suggested accounting for energy savings from standards-
induced shifts away from fluorescent lamp ballasts. CA IOUs raised a 
concern if the analysis only examined fluorescent lamp ballasts and not 
the energy savings of potential shifts to other lighting technologies. 
(CA IOUs, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 103-104; CA IOUs, No. 
10 at p. 11) Lutron stated that FLB shipments are declining at an 
accelerating rate and potential new amended standards can only affect 
shipments. (Lutron, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 41) Also 
during the framework public meeting, NEEA discussed the possibility of 
setting a potential standard for dimming ballasts that would eliminate 
some of the dimming ballasts. NEEA suggested that consumers would 
switch to LED options. NEEA suggested that there should be a scenario 
that examines consumers switching to LED systems. (NEEA, Public Meeting 
Transcript, No. 5 at p. 102)
    DOE has included within the NIA model a standards-induced shift 
scenario in which if EL 1 is selected 25 percent of the consumers would 
migrate to a new LED technology. If EL 2 is selected 50 percent of the 
consumers would migrate to a new LED technology, and if EL 3 is 
selected 75 percent of the consumers would migrate to a new LED 
technology. Within the NIA model, the percentage of customers migrating 
away is not fixed and can be changed by the user.
    Philips speculated that if the incremental ballast price from 
ballast modifications necessary for compliance to a potential new, 
amended standard does not pay back within 2 years using the incremental 
energy savings, customers will choose something else, and in reality it 
will lead to additional LED adoption. (Philips, No. 8 at pp. 36-37) CA 
IOUs stated that first costs can still be a barrier to LED adoption, 
and if potential new energy efficiency standards for fluorescent lamp 
ballasts increase the costs for the ballasts, the result will likely 
accelerate the shift towards more efficient LEDs. (CA IOUs, No. 10 at 
p. 11)
    Within DOEs standard-induced shift away from a FLB scenario, DOE 
modeled the shift to occur at different increments at each EL and not 
at a specific PBP or specific increase in FLB price. The PBPs vary for 
all of the product classes and ballasts. The potential cost 
differential between the baseline ballast and a more efficient EL 
ballast vary across the products classes as well.
    NEEA stated that although LED replacements of traditional lighting 
are more expensive than traditional lighting systems, the prices will 
reduce over time. (NEEA, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 99) 
However, NEEA also stated that the price of FLB systems is known, 
whereas the price of LED systems in the future is a much bigger 
variable. (NEEA, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 101-102) 
Philips concurred that although LED prices were initially higher, they 
have reduced and they will be lower cost in the future. (Philips, 
Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 102-103)
    DOE agrees that the potential LED options may have a greater 
initial cost than a potential compliant fluorescent lamp ballast. 
Within the standards-induced shift away from the FLB scenario, DOE 
assumed an equal mixture of TLEDs (UL Type B and C), LED retrofit kits, 
and new LED luminaires. DOE researched public pricing for each of these 
devices and developed and aggregate price for the potential LED option. 
DOE also developed an aggregate device efficacy for the potential 
option. Using DOE forecasts for future efficacy improvements circa 
2023, DOE modeled the efficacy for the LED option in 2023. Using the 
engineering analysis and system light output, DOE reverse-engineered 
the input power and price for the LED option. For more information on 
the methodology refer to the Appendix 10D of chapter 10 of the NOPD 
TSD.
    DOE seeks comment on the percentage of customers to model in a 
standards-induced shift that would migrate away from FLB technology. 
DOE seeks comments on the specific incremental cost in fluorescent lamp 
ballasts that could trigger a standards-induced shift away from 
fluorescent lamp ballasts. DOE seeks comment on the approach for input 
power and price for LED devices considered in a standards-induced 
shift. See section VII.C for a list of issues on which DOE seeks 
comment.
    DOE seeks comment on any potential impediments that would prevent 
users of fluorescent lamp ballasts from switching to LED lighting to 
garner additional energy savings. DOE seeks comment on the expected 
effect of potential standards on the rate at which FLB consumers 
transition to non-FLB technology. See section VII.C for a list of 
issues on which DOE seeks comment. Chapter 10 of the NOPD TSD provides 
details on DOE's NIA for fluorescent lamp ballasts.
2. National Energy Savings
    The NES analysis involves a comparison of national energy 
consumption of the considered products between each potential standards 
case (EL) and the case with no new or amended energy conservation 
standards. DOE calculated the national energy consumption by 
multiplying the number of units (stock) of each product (by vintage or 
age) by the unit energy consumption (also by vintage). DOE calculated 
annual NES based on the difference in national energy consumption for 
the no-new-standards case and for each higher efficiency standard case. 
DOE estimated energy consumption and savings based on site energy and 
converted the electricity consumption and savings to source energy 
(i.e., the energy consumed by power plants to generate site 
electricity) using annual conversion factors derived from AEO2019. 
Cumulative energy

[[Page 56576]]

savings are the sum of the NES for each year over the timeframe of the 
analysis.
    In 2011, in response to the recommendations of a committee on 
``Point-of-Use and Full-Fuel-Cycle Measurement Approaches to Energy 
Efficiency Standards'' appointed by the National Academy of Sciences, 
DOE announced its intention to use FFC measures of energy use and 
greenhouse gas and other emissions in the NIA and emissions analyses 
included in future energy conservation standards rulemakings. 76 FR 
51281 (Aug. 18, 2011). After evaluating the approaches discussed in the 
August 18, 2011 notice, DOE published a statement of amended policy in 
which DOE explained its determination that EIA's National Energy 
Modeling System (NEMS) is the most appropriate tool for its FFC 
analysis and its intention to use NEMS for that purpose. 77 FR 49701 
(Aug. 17, 2012). NEMS is a public domain, multi-sector, partial 
equilibrium model of the U.S. energy sector \37\ that EIA uses to 
prepare its AEO. The FFC factors incorporate losses in production, and 
delivery in the case of natural gas, (including fugitive emissions) and 
additional energy used to produce and deliver the various fuels used by 
power plants. The approach used for deriving FFC measures of energy use 
and emissions is described in appendix 10B of the NOPD TSD.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \37\ For more information on NEMS, refer to The National Energy 
Modeling System: An Overview 2009, DOE/EIA-0581(2009), October 2009. 
Available at https://www.eia.gov/analysis/pdfpages/0581(2009)index.php.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    ULT stated that the NIA model needs to include a declining market 
for fluorescent lamp ballasts. (ULT, No. 6 at p. 10) DOE agrees with 
ULT and has included declining shipment scenarios within the shipment 
analysis (chapter 10 of the NOPD TSD). The shipments analysis serves as 
part of the basis of the NIA model, and thus the NIA model includes a 
declining shipments scenario for fluorescent lamp ballasts.
    NEMA and ULT stated that the NIA model should include the energy 
reduction from the natural shift to solid-state lighting. (NEMA, No. 12 
at p. 12; ULT, No. 6 at p. 10) As stated previously, the preliminary 
analysis shipment model includes a declining market scenario that 
includes a shift to solid-state lighting. This decline of fluorescent 
lamps ballasts in transition to SSL is in the absence of standards (a 
natural shift). This decline occurs in the no-new-standards case. The 
NIA model characterizes the energy usage of the fluorescent lamp 
ballast and compares the energy usage in both a no-new-standards and a 
standards scenario. However, DOE has included within the NIA model a 
scenario in which potential standards accelerate the shift away from 
fluorescent lamp ballasts to SSL (standards-induced shift).
    Both NEMA and ULT suggested that the NIA model should focus on the 
effects of potential standards on drawing resources from lighting 
manufacturers from other technologies (i.e., SSL) to comply with 
potential standards. (NEMA, No. 12 at p. 12; ULT, No. 6 at p. 10) DOE 
has not analyzed the potential effects of standards on resources and 
investments of manufacturers as part of the NIA. The MIA assesses the 
investments manufacturers must make to comply with potential standards 
(see section IV.H).
    During the framework public meeting, Lutron inquired whether DOE 
could take credit for energy savings resulting from dimming ballast 
standards across the country. California's Title 20 already contains a 
dimming standard, and therefore Lutron suggested that DOE should only 
include energy saving projections from the rest of the country and not 
in California. (Lutron, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at pp. 27-28) 
The NIA model uses inputs from the shipments analysis factors in 
distributions of different values of efficiency of ballasts. Therefore, 
the ballasts that comply with California's Title 20 are incorporated 
into the shipments model and thus the NIA model. If a potential 
standard shifts ballasts to the California Title 20 values, any related 
savings (or lack of savings because of already compliant ballasts) 
would be captured by the NIA model.
3. Net Present Value Analysis
    The inputs for determining the NPV of the total costs and benefits 
experienced by consumers are (1) total annual installed cost, (2) total 
annual operating costs (energy costs and repair and maintenance costs), 
and (3) a discount factor to calculate the present value of costs and 
savings. DOE calculates net savings each year as the difference between 
the no-new-standards case and each standards case in terms of total 
savings in operating costs versus total increases in installed costs. 
DOE calculates operating cost savings over the lifetime of each product 
shipped during the projection period.
    DOE developed FLB price trends based on historical pricing 
information for electronic ballasts. DOE applied the same trends to 
project prices for each product class at each considered efficiency 
level. By 2052, which is the end date of the projection period, the 
average FLB price is projected to drop 8.2 percent relative to 2016. 
DOE's projection of product prices is described in appendix 8C of the 
NOPD TSD.
    The operating cost savings are energy cost savings, which are 
calculated using the estimated energy savings in each year and the 
projected price of the appropriate form of energy. To estimate energy 
prices in future years, DOE multiplied the average regional energy 
prices by the projection of annual national-average residential energy 
price changes in the Reference Case from AEO2019, which has an end year 
of 2050.
    In calculating the NPV, DOE multiplies the net savings in future 
years by a discount factor to determine their present value. For this 
NOPD, DOE estimated the NPV of consumer benefits using both a 3-percent 
and a 7-percent real discount rate. DOE uses these discount rates in 
accordance with guidance provided by the Office of Management and 
Budget (OMB) to Federal agencies on the development of regulatory 
analysis.\38\ The discount rates for the determination of NPV are in 
contrast to the discount rates used in the LCC analysis, which are 
designed to reflect a consumer's perspective. The 7-percent real value 
is an estimate of the average before-tax rate of return to private 
capital in the U.S. economy. The 3-percent real value represents the 
``social rate of time preference,'' which is the rate at which society 
discounts future consumption flows to their present value.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \38\ United States Office of Management and Budget. Circular A-
4: Regulatory Analysis. September 17, 2003. Section E. Available at 
https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/memoranda_m03-21/.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

H. Manufacturer Impact Analysis

    DOE performed an MIA to estimate the financial impacts of potential 
amended energy conservation standards on manufacturers of fluorescent 
lamp ballasts. DOE relied on GRIM, an industry cash flow model with 
inputs specific to this rulemaking. The key GRIM inputs include data on 
the industry cost structure, unit production costs, product shipments, 
manufacturer markups, and investments in research and development (R&D) 
and manufacturing capital required to produce compliant products. The 
key GRIM outputs are the industry net present value (INPV), which is 
the sum of industry annual cash flows over the analysis period, 
discounted using the industry-weighted average cost of capital, and the 
impact to domestic manufacturing employment. The GRIM calculates cash 
flows using standard accounting principles and compares

[[Page 56577]]

changes in INPV between the no-new-standards case and each standards 
case. The difference in INPV between the no-new-standards case and a 
standards case represents the financial impact of the amended energy 
conservation standard on manufacturers. To capture the uncertainty 
relating to manufacturer pricing strategies following amended 
standards, the GRIM estimates a range of possible impacts under 
different markup scenarios.
    DOE created initial estimates for the industry financial inputs 
used in the GRIM (e.g., tax rate; working capital rate; net property 
plant and equipment expenses; selling, general, and administrative 
(SG&A) expenses; R&D expenses; depreciation expenses; capital 
expenditures; and industry discount rate) based on publicly available 
sources, such as company filings of form 10-K from the SEC or corporate 
annual reports.\39\ DOE then further calibrated these initial estimates 
during manufacturer interviews to arrive at the final estimates used in 
the GRIM.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \39\ 10-Ks are collected from the SEC's EDGAR database: https://www.sec.gov/edgar.shtml or from annual financial reports collected 
from individual company websites.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The GRIM uses several factors to determine a series of annual cash 
flows starting with the announcement of potential standards and 
extending over a 30-year period following the compliance date of 
potential standards. These factors include annual expected revenues, 
costs of sales, SG&A and R&D expenses, taxes, and capital expenditures. 
In general, energy conservation standards can affect manufacturer cash 
flow in three distinct ways: (1) Creating a need for increased 
investment, (2) raising production costs per unit, and (3) altering 
revenue due to higher per-unit prices and changes in sales volumes.
    The GRIM spreadsheet uses inputs to arrive at a series of annual 
cash flows, beginning in 2019 (the reference year of the analysis) and 
continuing to 2052. DOE calculated INPVs by summing the stream of 
annual discounted cash flows during this period. DOE used a real 
discount rate of 9.6 percent for FLB manufacturers. This initial 
discount rate estimate was derived using the capital asset pricing 
model in conjunction with publicly available information (e.g., 10-year 
treasury rates of return and company specific betas). DOE then 
confirmed this initial estimate during manufacturer interviews. 
Additional details about the GRIM, the discount rate, and other 
financial parameters can be found in chapter 11 of the NOPD TSD.
1. Manufacturer Production Costs
    Manufacturing more efficient fluorescent lamp ballasts is typically 
more expensive because of the use of more complex components, which are 
typically more costly than baseline components. The changes in the MPCs 
of covered products can affect the revenues, gross margins, and cash 
flow of the industry. Typically, DOE develops MPCs for the covered 
products using reverse-engineering. These costs are used as an input to 
the LCC analysis and NIA. However, because ballasts are difficult to 
reverse-engineer, DOE directly derived end-user prices in the 
engineering analysis and then used the end-user prices in conjunction 
with markups to calculate the MPCs of fluorescent lamp ballasts. See 
section IV.C for a further explanation of product price determination.
    To determine MPCs of fluorescent lamp ballasts from the wholesale 
prices calculated in the engineering analysis, DOE divided the 
wholesale prices by the wholesaler markup to calculate the MSP. DOE 
then divided the MSP by the manufacturer markup to get the MPCs. DOE 
determined the wholesaler markup to be 1.23 and the manufacturer markup 
to be 1.40 for all fluorescent lamp ballasts. Markups are further 
described in section IV.H.4.
2. Shipments Projections
    The GRIM estimates manufacturer revenues based on total unit 
shipment projections and the distribution of those shipments by EL. 
Changes in sales volumes and efficiency mix over time can significantly 
affect manufacturer finances. For this analysis, the GRIM uses the 
NIA's annual shipment projections from shipments scenario #3 (reference 
case, see section IV.F.1) starting in 2019 (the reference year) and 
ending in 2052 (the end year of the analysis period). See chapter 9 of 
the NOPD TSD for additional details.
3. Product and Capital Conversion Costs
    Potential amended energy conservation standards could cause 
manufacturers to incur conversion costs to bring their production 
facilities and equipment designs into compliance. DOE evaluated the 
level of conversion-related expenditures that would be needed to comply 
with each considered EL in each product class. For the MIA, DOE 
classified these conversion costs into two major groups: (1) Product 
conversion costs; and (2) capital conversion costs. Product conversion 
costs are investments in research, development, testing, marketing, and 
other non-capitalized costs necessary to make product designs comply 
with amended energy conservation standards. Capital conversion costs 
are investments in property, plant, and equipment necessary to adapt or 
change existing production facilities such that new compliant product 
designs can be fabricated and assembled.
    To evaluate the level of capital conversion costs manufacturers 
would likely incur to comply with the analyzed energy conservation 
standards DOE used data submitted during manufacturer interviews and 
data from the 2011 FL Ballast Rule to estimate costs to update 
manufacturer production lines by product class. DOE then estimated the 
number of production lines currently in existence and the number of 
production lines that would be required to be updated at each analyzed 
EL using DOE's public Compliance Certification Database. DOE then 
multiplied these numbers together (i.e., capital conversion costs per 
production line and number of production lines that would need to be 
updated) to get the final estimated capital conversion costs for each 
product class at each analyzed EL.
    To evaluate the level of product conversion costs manufacturers 
would likely incur to comply with the analyzed energy conservation 
standards, DOE used data submitted during manufacturer interviews and 
data from the 2011 FL Ballast Rule to estimate per model R&D and 
testing and certification costs for each product class and EL. DOE then 
estimated the number of models that would need to be redesigned for 
each product class at each analyzed EL. DOE then multiplied these 
numbers together to get the final estimated product conversion costs 
for each product class at each analyzed EL.
    In general, DOE assumes all conversion-related investments occur 
between the year of publication of the final rule and the year by which 
manufacturers must comply with the potential amended standards. The 
conversion cost figures used in the GRIM can be found in Table V.7 and 
section V.C of this document. For additional information on the 
estimated capital and product conversion costs, see chapter 11 of the 
NOPD TSD.
4. Markup Scenarios
    To calculate the MPCs used in the GRIM, DOE divided the wholesaler 
prices calculated in the engineering analysis by the wholesaler markup 
and the manufacturer markup. The wholesaler markup was calculated in 
the 2011 FL Ballast Rule by reviewing SEC 10-K reports of electrical 
wholesalers. DOE also coordinated with

[[Page 56578]]

the National Association of Electrical Distributors by contacting two 
representative electrical wholesalers, who confirmed that DOE's 
calculated markups were consistent with their actual ballast markups. 
DOE continued to use a wholesaler markup of 1.23 in this analysis.
    The manufacturer markup accounts for the non-production costs 
(i.e., SG&A, R&D, and interest) along with profit. Modifying the 
manufacturer markup in the standards case yields different sets of 
impacts on manufacturers. For the MIA, DOE modeled two standards-case 
markup scenarios to represent uncertainty regarding the potential 
impacts on prices and profitability for manufacturers following the 
implementation of analyzed energy conservation standards: (1) A 
preservation of gross margin percentage markup scenario; and (2) a 
preservation of operating profit markup scenario. These scenarios lead 
to different manufacturer markup values that, when applied to the MPCs, 
result in varying revenue and cash flow impacts.
    Under the preservation of gross margin percentage scenario, DOE 
applied a single uniform ``gross margin percentage'' markup across all 
ELs, which assumes that manufacturers would be able to maintain the 
same amount of profit as a percentage of revenues at all ELs within a 
product class. To calculate the preservation of gross margin markup, 
DOE took the manufacturer markup used in the 2011 FL Ballast Rule and 
compared it to the manufacturer markups calculated by examining the SEC 
10-Ks of all publicly traded FLB manufacturers and confirmed this with 
manufacturers during interviews. DOE determined that the manufacturer 
markup used in the 2011 FL Ballast Rule was consistent with the current 
SEC 10-Ks of the publicly traded FLB manufacturers and most 
manufacturers agreed during manufacturer interviews. Therefore, DOE 
used 1.40 as the manufacturer markup in the preservation of gross 
margin markup scenario. DOE assumes that this markup scenario 
represents an upper bound to industry profitability under analyzed 
energy conservation standards.
    Under the preservation of operating profit markup scenario, DOE 
modeled a situation in which manufacturers are not able to increase 
operating profit in proportion to increases in manufacturer production 
costs. Under this scenario, as the cost of production increases, 
manufacturers are generally required to reduce the manufacturer markups 
to maintain cost competitive offerings in the market. Therefore, gross 
margin (as a percentage) shrinks in the standards cases in this markup 
scenario. This markup scenario represents an upper bound of industry 
impacts (lower profitability) under amended energy conservation 
standards.
    A comparison of industry financial impacts under the two 
manufacturer markup scenarios is presented in section V.C.1 of this 
document.
5. Manufacturer Interviews
    DOE interviewed manufacturers of fluorescent lamp ballasts and 
asked them to describe their major concerns regarding a potential 
rulemaking to amend the standards for FLBs. Manufacturer interviews are 
conducted under non-disclosure agreements (NDAs), so DOE does not 
document these discussions in the same way that it does public comments 
and DOE's responses throughout the rest of this document. Manufacturers 
identified two major areas of concern regarding potential FLB 
standards: (1) Shift to SSL (i.e., LEDs) and (2) limited investment in 
fluorescent lamp ballasts.
a. Shift to Solid-State Lighting
    Manufacturers stated that the market is moving from fluorescent 
lighting to LED lighting. As a result, shipments for fluorescent lamp 
ballasts are declining. This trend is expected to continue in the 
future absent amended energy conservation standards. Some manufacturers 
expected sales in 2020 could decline by more than half compared to 
2016. Given this market-driven move in the no-new-standards case from 
fluorescent lighting to LED lighting, manufacturers commented that an 
amended energy conservation would accelerate this transition. 
Specifically, manufacturers stated that consumers of fluorescent lamp 
ballasts are very price sensitive and any increase in consumer price as 
a result of potential amended energy conservation standards would 
significantly reduce FLB shipments.
    DOE is aware that consumers of fluorescent lamp ballasts are 
shifting to purchase all-LED systems. DOE accounts for this in the 
Reference Case by adjusting shipments of fluorescent lamp ballasts 
downward during the analysis period. Amended energy conservation 
standards could accelerate the transition to LED lighting, and DOE 
accounts for this potential accelerated decline by analyzing an 
alternate shipment scenario in which there is a standards-induced shift 
to SSL. (See section IV.F for further information.)
b. Limited Investment in Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts
    Manufacturers commented that fluorescent lamp ballasts are a mature 
technology and increases in efficiency can only be achieved at high 
expense to the industry. Under potential amended energy conservation 
standards, manufacturers stated that they might discontinue non-
compliant products instead of redesigning them, because investments in 
fluorescent lamp ballasts would not be cost-effective. Therefore, any 
amended energy conservation standards could result in reduced product 
offerings. This would impact consumers in the replacement markets, 
particularly in those instances in which there is a preference to 
replace ballasts with exactly the same one. The LCC analysis takes into 
account such effects on consumers; see section IV.E for further 
details.
6. Discussion of MIA Comments
    DOE received several comments related to assessing the manufacturer 
impacts of potential amended standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts. 
NEMA, Lutron, and ULT commented that manufacturers are unlikely to 
develop or redesign new fluorescent lamp ballasts if energy 
conservation standards result in the elimination of products from the 
market. They added that setting efficiency limits will only hasten the 
existing decline of this product category. (NEMA, No. 12 at p. 11; 
Lutron, No. 9 at p. 3; ULT, No. 6 at p. 10) Similarly, Philips 
commented that even though a new ballast could be designed and 
produced, DOE needs to be very cognizant of the costs associated with 
design, approbation, marketing, and implementation of that new, revised 
design into luminaires and there might not be a positive business case. 
(Philips, No. 8 at p. 15)
    The MIA takes conversion costs and the shipment volumes into 
account when analyzing the impacts on manufacturers. Thus, the results 
of the MIA present the impacts of redesigning all non-compliant 
products to comply with the analyzed standard level even if that is not 
the path that manufacturers will choose.
    In addition, NEMA pointed out that fluorescent lamp ballasts have 
been subject to four energy conservation standards since the early 
1990s, including a rulemaking completed in 2011, which NEMA stated had 
a significant negative impact on manufacturers' INPV. NEMA commented 
that because of a declining demand for these products, another 
rulemaking could have a negative

[[Page 56579]]

impact on INPV. (NEMA, No. 12 at p. 8) Philips and ULT commented that 
they used to run five and four FLB factories, respectively, and now 
they are running one factory each as a result of declining sales. 
(Philips, Public Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 55; ULT, Public 
Meeting Transcript, No. 5 at p. 56)
    In those instances in which DOE proposes amended standards, it 
analyzes the benefits and burdens of each standard independently and 
weighs the potential burdens on the industry as one of the factors in 
determining a final standard. In this notice DOE is proposing a 
determination to not amend standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts. See 
section V.D for further details.

V. Analytical Results and Conclusions

    The following section addresses the results from DOE's analyses 
with respect to the considered energy conservation standards for 
fluorescent lamp ballasts. It addresses the ELs examined by DOE and the 
projected impacts of each of these levels. Additional details regarding 
DOE's analyses are contained in the NOPD TSD supporting this document.

A. Economic Impacts on Individual Consumers

    DOE analyzed the cost effectiveness (i.e., the savings in operating 
costs throughout the estimated average life of FLBs compared to any 
increase in the price of, or in the initial charges for, or maintenance 
expenses of, the FLBs which are likely to result from the imposition of 
a standard at the EL) by considering the LCC and PBP at each EL. These 
analyses are discussed in the following sections. DOE usually evaluates 
the LCC impacts of potential standards on identifiable subgroups of 
consumers that may be affected disproportionately by a national 
standard. However, given the tentative conclusion discussed in section 
V.D, DOE did not conduct a consumer subgroup analysis for this proposed 
determination.
1. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period
    In general, higher-efficiency products can affect consumers in two 
ways: (1) Purchase price increases and (2) annual operating costs 
decrease. Inputs used for calculating the LCC and PBP include total 
installed costs (i.e., product price plus installation costs), and 
operating costs (i.e., annual energy use, energy prices, energy price 
trends, repair costs, and maintenance costs). The LCC calculation also 
uses product lifetime and a discount rate. Chapter 8 of the NOPD TSD 
provides detailed information on the LCC and PBP analyses.
    Table V.1 shows the average LCC and PBP results for the ELs 
considered for fluorescent lamp ballasts in this analysis.

       Table V.1--Average LCC and PBP Results by Efficiency Level
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                            LCC savings   Simple payback
            Efficiency level                   2018$       period years
------------------------------------------------------------------------
EL 1....................................               0              12
EL 2....................................               1              10
EL 3....................................               2              10
------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Rebuttable Presumption Payback
    As discussed in section IV.E.9, EPCA establishes a rebuttable 
presumption that an energy conservation standard is economically 
justified if the increased purchase cost for a product that meets the 
standard is less than three times the value of the first-year energy 
savings resulting from the standard. In calculating a rebuttable 
presumption PBP for each of the considered ELs, DOE used discrete 
values, and, as required by EPCA, based the energy use calculation on 
the DOE test procedure for fluorescent lamp ballasts. In contrast, the 
PBPs presented in section V.A.1 were calculated using distributions 
that reflect the range of energy use in the field. See chapter 8 of the 
NOPD TSD for more information on the rebuttable presumption payback 
analysis.

B. National Impact Analysis

    This section presents DOE's estimates of the NES and the NPV of 
consumer benefits that would result from each of the ELs considered as 
potential amended standards.
1. Significance of Energy Savings
    To estimate the energy savings attributable to potential amended 
standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts, DOE compared their energy 
consumption under the no-new-standards case to their anticipated energy 
consumption under each EL. The savings are measured over the entire 
lifetime of products purchased in the 30-year period that begins in the 
year of anticipated compliance with amended standards (2023-2052). 
Table V.2 presents DOE's projections of the NES for each EL considered 
for fluorescent lamp ballasts. The savings were calculated using the 
approach described in section IV.G of this document.

       Table V.2--Cumulative National Energy Savings for Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts; 30 Years of Shipments
                                                   [2023-2052]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                 Efficiency level
           Shipment scenario                   Energy type       -----------------------------------------------
                                                                         1               2               3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                       quads
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.....................................  Site Energy.............           0.000           0.000           0.000
                                        Source Energy...........           0.000           0.000           0.000
                                        FFC Energy..............           0.000           0.000           0.000
2.....................................  Site Energy.............           0.006           0.019           0.025
                                        Source Energy...........           0.017           0.051           0.066
                                        FFC Energy..............           0.018           0.054           0.069
3 (Reference Case)....................  Site Energy.............           0.018           0.055           0.069

[[Page 56580]]

 
                                        Source Energy...........           0.049           0.145           0.183
                                        FFC Energy..............           0.051           0.152           0.192
4.....................................  Site Energy.............           0.037           0.110           0.137
                                        Source Energy...........           0.098           0.292           0.365
                                        FFC Energy..............           0.102           0.306           0.382
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    OMB Circular A-4 \40\ requires agencies to present analytical 
results, including separate schedules of the monetized benefits and 
costs that show the type and timing of benefits and costs. Circular A-4 
also directs agencies to consider the variability of key elements 
underlying the estimates of benefits and costs. For this proposed 
determination, DOE undertook a sensitivity analysis using 9 years, 
rather than 30 years, of product shipments. The choice of a 9-year 
period is a proxy for the timeline in EPCA for the review of certain 
energy conservation standards and potential revision of and compliance 
with such revised standards.\41\ The review timeframe established in 
EPCA is generally not synchronized with the product lifetime, product 
manufacturing cycles, or other factors specific to fluorescent lamp 
ballasts. Thus, such results are presented for informational purposes 
only and are not indicative of any change in DOE's analytical 
methodology. The NES sensitivity analysis results based on a 9-year 
analytical period are presented in Table V.3. The impacts are counted 
over the lifetime of fluorescent lamp ballasts purchased in 2023-2031.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \40\ U.S. Office of Management and Budget. Circular A-4: 
Regulatory Analysis. September 17, 2003. Available at https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/circulars_a004_a-4/.
    \41\ Section 325(m) of EPCA requires DOE to review its standards 
at least once every 6 years, and requires, for certain products, a 
3-year period after any new standard is promulgated before 
compliance is required, except that in no case may any new standards 
be required within 6 years of the compliance date of the previous 
standards. If DOE makes a determination that amended standards are 
not needed, it must conduct a subsequent review within 3 years 
following such a determination. As DOE is evaluating the need to 
amend the standards, the sensitivity analysis is based on the review 
timeframe associated with amended standards. While adding a 6-year 
review to the 3-year compliance period adds up to 9 years, DOE notes 
that it may undertake reviews at any time within the 6-year period 
and that the 3-year compliance date may yield to the 6-year 
backstop. A 9-year analysis period may not be appropriate given the 
variability that occurs in the timing of standards reviews and the 
fact that for some products, the compliance period is 5 years rather 
than 3 years.

        Table V.3--Cumulative National Energy Savings for Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts; 9 Years of Shipments
                                                   [2023-2031]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                 Efficiency level
           Shipment scenario                   Energy type       -----------------------------------------------
                                                                         1               2               3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                       quads
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.....................................  Site Energy.............           0.000           0.000           0.000
                                        Source Energy...........           0.000           0.000           0.000
                                        FFC Energy..............           0.000           0.000           0.000
2.....................................  Site Energy.............           0.006           0.018           0.023
                                        Source Energy...........           0.016           0.047           0.061
                                        FFC Energy..............           0.017           0.049           0.064
3 (Reference Case)....................  Site Energy.............           0.012           0.036           0.047
                                        Source Energy...........           0.032           0.097           0.124
                                        FFC Energy..............           0.034           0.101           0.130
4.....................................  Site Energy.............           0.022           0.065           0.084
                                        Source Energy...........           0.058           0.175           0.224
                                        FFC Energy..............           0.061           0.183           0.235
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Net Present Value of Consumer Costs and Benefits
    DOE estimated the cumulative NPV of the total costs and savings for 
consumers that would result from the ELs considered for fluorescent 
lamp ballasts. In accordance with OMB's guidelines on regulatory 
analysis,\42\ DOE calculated NPV using both a 7-percent and a 3-percent 
real discount rate. Table V.4 shows the consumer NPV results with 
impacts counted over the lifetime of products purchased in 2023-2052.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \42\ U.S. Office of Management and Budget. Circular A-4: 
Regulatory Analysis. September 17, 2003. Available at https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/omb/circulars_a004_a-4/.

[[Page 56581]]



     Table V.4--Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts; 30 Years of
                                                    Shipments
                                                   [2023-2052]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                 Efficiency level
           Shipment scenario             Discount rate (percent) -----------------------------------------------
                                                                         1               2               3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                   Billion 2018$
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.....................................  3.......................         (0.000)           0.000           0.000
                                        7.......................         (0.000)         (0.000)         (0.000)
2.....................................  3.......................         (0.050)         (0.013)         (0.031)
                                        7.......................         (0.053)         (0.054)         (0.080)
3 (Reference Case)....................  3.......................         (0.146)         (0.075)         (0.159)
                                        7.......................         (0.133)         (0.149)         (0.228)
4.....................................  3.......................         (0.293)         (0.165)         (0.350)
                                        7.......................         (0.256)         (0.293)         (0.453)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The NPV results based on the aforementioned 9-year analytical 
period are presented in Table V.5. The impacts are counted over the 
lifetime of products purchased in 2023-2031. As mentioned previously, 
such results are presented for informational purposes only and are not 
indicative of any change in DOE's analytical methodology or decision 
criteria.

Table V.5--Cumulative Net Present Value of Consumer Benefits for Fluorescent Lamp Ballasts; 9 Years of Shipments
                                                   [2023-2031]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                 Efficiency level
           Shipment scenario             Discount rate (percent) -----------------------------------------------
                                                                         1               2               3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                   Billion 2018$
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
1.....................................  3.......................         (0.000)           0.000           0.000
                                        7.......................         (0.000)         (0.000)         (0.000)
2.....................................  3.......................         (0.046)         (0.010)         (0.025)
                                        7.......................         (0.050)         (0.051)         (0.074)
3 (Reference Case)....................  3.......................         (0.096)         (0.030)         (0.066)
                                        7.......................         (0.101)         (0.106)         (0.157)
4.....................................  3.......................         (0.173)         (0.058)         (0.128)
                                        7.......................         (0.180)         (0.192)         (0.285)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

C. Economic Impacts on Manufacturers

    DOE performed an MIA to estimate the impact of analyzed energy 
conservation standards on manufacturers of fluorescent lamp ballasts. 
The following section describes the expected impacts on fluorescent 
lamp manufacturers at each EL. Chapter 11 of the NOPD TSD explains the 
analysis in further detail.
1. Industry Cash Flow Analysis Results
    In this section, DOE provides the results from the MIA, which 
examines changes in the industry that would result from the analyzed 
standards. The following tables illustrate the estimated financial 
impacts (represented by changes in INPV) of potential amended energy 
conservation standards on manufacturers of fluorescent lamp ballasts, 
as well as the conversion costs that DOE estimates manufacturers of 
fluorescent lamp ballasts would incur at each EL.
    To evaluate the range of cash-flow impacts on the FLB industry, DOE 
modeled two markup scenarios that correspond to the range of 
anticipated market responses to potential standards. Each scenario 
results in a unique set of cash flows and corresponding industry values 
at each EL. In the following discussion, the INPV results refer to the 
difference in industry value between the no-new-standards case and the 
standards case that result from the sum of discounted cash flows from 
the reference year (2019) through the end of the analysis period 
(2052).
    To assess the upper (less severe) end of the range of potential 
impacts on FLB manufacturers, DOE modeled a preservation of gross 
margin markup scenario. This scenario assumes that in the standards 
case, manufacturers would be able to pass along all the higher 
production costs required for more efficient products to their 
consumers. To assess the lower (more severe) end of the range of 
potential impacts, DOE modeled a preservation of operating profit 
markup scenario. The preservation of operating profit markup scenario 
assumes that in the standards cases, manufacturers would be able to 
earn the same operating margin in absolute dollars as they would in the 
no-new-standards case. This represents the lower bound of industry 
profitability in the standards cases.
    Table V.6 and Table V.7 present the results of the industry cash 
flow analysis for FLB manufacturers under the preservation of gross 
margin and preservation of operating profit markup scenarios. See 
chapter 11 of the NOPD TSD for results of the complete industry cash 
flow analysis by product class.

[[Page 56582]]



    Table V.6--Manufacturer Impact Analysis for Fluorescent Lamp Ballast--Preservation of Gross Margin Markup
                                                    Scenario
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      No-new-
                                      Units       standards case       EL 1            EL 2            EL 3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INPV..........................  2018$ millions..           489.3           436.9           389.1           381.5
Change in INPV................  2018$ millions..  ..............          (52.4)         (100.2)         (107.8)
                                %...............  ..............          (10.7)          (20.5)          (22.0)
Product Conversion Costs......  2018$ millions..  ..............            68.8           132.2           146.7
Capital Conversion Costs......  2018$ millions..  ..............            17.8            33.8            36.4
Total Conversion Costs........  2018$ millions..  ..............            86.6           166.0           183.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


  Table V.7--Manufacturer Impact Analysis for Fluorescent Lamp Ballast--Preservation of Operating Profit Markup
                                                    Scenario
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      No-new-
                                      Units       standards case       EL 1            EL 2            EL 3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INPV..........................  2018$ millions..           489.3           430.9           375.6           363.3
Change in INPV................  2018$ millions..  ..............          (58.4)         (113.7)         (126.0)
                                %...............  ..............          (11.9)          (23.2)          (25.8)
Product Conversion Costs......  2018$ millions..  ..............            68.8           132.2           146.7
Capital Conversion Costs......  2018$ millions..  ..............            17.8            33.8            36.4
Total Conversion Costs........  2018$ millions..  ..............            86.6           166.0           183.1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Direct Impacts on Employment
    DOE typically presents quantitative estimates of the potential 
changes in production employment that could result from the analyzed 
energy conservation standard levels. However, for this proposed 
determination, DOE determined that no manufacturers have domestic FLB 
production. Further, DOE has tentatively determined that amended energy 
conservation standards are not needed. Therefore, the proposed 
determination would not have a significant impact on domestic 
employment in the FLB industry.
3. Impacts on Manufacturing Capacity
    DOE does not anticipate any significant capacity constraints at any 
of the analyzed energy conservation standards. The more efficient 
components are currently being used in existing FLB models and 
worldwide supply would most likely be able to meet the increase in 
demand given the 3-year compliance period for any potential energy 
conservation standards.
4. Impacts on Subgroups of Manufacturers
    Using average cost assumptions to develop an industry cash-flow 
estimate may not be adequate for assessing differential impacts among 
manufacturer subgroups. Small manufacturers, niche equipment 
manufacturers, and manufacturers exhibiting cost structures 
substantially different from the industry average could be affected 
disproportionately. DOE only identified one manufacturer subgroup for 
fluorescent lamp ballasts, small manufacturers. Given the tentative 
conclusion discussed in section V.D, DOE did not conduct a manufacturer 
subgroup analysis on small business manufacturers for this proposed 
determination.
5. Cumulative Regulatory Burden
    One aspect of assessing manufacturer burden involves looking at the 
cumulative impact of multiple DOE standards and the product-specific 
regulatory actions of other Federal agencies that affect the 
manufacturers of a covered product. While any one regulation may not 
impose a significant burden on manufacturers, the combined effects of 
several existing or impending regulations may have serious consequences 
for some manufacturers, groups of manufacturers, or an entire industry. 
Assessing the impact of a single regulation may overlook this 
cumulative regulatory burden. In addition to energy conservation 
standards, other regulations can significantly affect manufacturers' 
financial operations. Multiple regulations affecting the same 
manufacturer can strain profits and lead companies to abandon product 
lines or markets with lower expected future returns than competing 
products. For these reasons, DOE typically conducts an analysis of 
cumulative regulatory burden as part of its rulemakings pertaining to 
appliance efficiency. However, given the tentative conclusion discussed 
in section V.D, DOE did not conduct a cumulative regulatory burden 
analysis.

D. Proposed Determination

    As required by EPCA, this notice analyzes whether amended standards 
for fluorescent lamp ballasts would result in significant conservation 
of energy, be technologically feasible, and be cost effective. (42 
U.S.C. 6295(m)(1)(A) and (n)(2)) In addition to these criteria, DOE 
also estimated the impact on manufacturers. The criteria considered 
under 42 U.S.C. 6295(m)(1)(A) and the additional analysis are discussed 
below. Because an analysis of potential cost effectiveness and energy 
savings first require an evaluation of the relevant technology, DOE 
first discusses the technological feasibility of amended standards. DOE 
then addresses the cost effectiveness and energy savings associated 
with potential amended standards.
1. Technological Feasibility
    EPCA mandates that DOE consider whether amended energy conservation 
standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts would be technologically 
feasible. (42 U.S.C. 6295(m)(1)(A) and (n)(2)(B)) DOE has tentatively 
determined that there are technology options that would improve the 
efficiency of fluorescent lamp ballasts. These technology options are 
being used in commercially available fluorescent lamp ballasts and 
therefore are technologically feasible. (See section IV.A.3 for further 
information.) Hence, DOE has tentatively determined that

[[Page 56583]]

amended energy conservation standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts are 
technologically feasible.
2. Cost Effectiveness
    EPCA requires DOE to consider whether energy conservation standards 
for fluorescent lamp ballasts would be cost effective through an 
evaluation of the savings in operating costs throughout the estimated 
average life of the covered product compared to any increase in the 
price of, or in the initial charges for, or maintenance expenses of, 
the covered products which are likely to result from the imposition of 
the standard. (42 U.S.C. 6295(m)(1)(A), (n)(2)(C), and 
(o)(2)(B)(i)(II)) DOE conducted an LCC analysis to estimate the net 
costs/benefits to users from increased efficiency in the considered 
fluorescent lamp ballasts. (See results in Table V.1.) DOE then 
aggregated the results from the LCC analysis to estimate the NPV of the 
total costs and benefits experienced by the Nation. (See results in 
Table V.4 and Table V.5.) As noted, the inputs for determining the NPV 
are (1) total annual installed cost, (2) total annual operating costs 
(energy costs and repair and maintenance costs), and (3) a discount 
factor to calculate the present value of costs and savings.
    DOE first considered the most efficient level, EL 3 (max tech), 
which would result in negative NPV at the 3-percent and 7-percent 
discount rates. On the basis of negative NPV, DOE tentatively 
determined that EL 3 is not cost effective.
    DOE then considered the next most efficient level, EL 2, which 
would result in negative NPV at a 3-percent and 7-percent discount 
rate. On the basis of negative NPV, DOE tentatively determined that EL 
2 is not cost effective.
    DOE then considered the next most efficient level, EL 1, which 
would result in negative NPV at both a 3-percent and 7-percent discount 
rate. On the basis of negative NPV, DOE tentatively determined that EL 
1 is not cost effective.
3. Significant Conservation of Energy
    EPCA also mandates that DOE consider whether amended energy 
conservation standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts would result in 
result in significant conservation of energy. (42 U.S.C. 6295(m)(1)(A) 
and (n)(2)(A)) DOE estimates that amended standards for fluorescent 
lamp ballasts would result in site energy savings of 0.018 quads at EL 
1 and 0.069 quads at max tech levels over a 30-year analysis period 
(2023-2052). (See results in Table V.2.) However, as provided in the 
prior section, DOE has tentatively determined that amended standards at 
the evaluated ELs would not be cost effective.
4. Other Analysis
    In this analysis, DOE also conducted an MIA to estimate the impact 
of potential energy conservation standards on manufacturers of 
fluorescent lamp ballasts. (See results in Table V.6 and Table V.7.) 
Each EL for all applicable product classes is estimated to result in 
FLB manufacturers experiencing a loss in INPV.
5. Summary
    In this proposed determination, based on the consideration of cost 
effectiveness and the initial determination that amended standards 
would not be cost effective, DOE has tentatively determined that energy 
conservation standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts do not need to be 
amended. DOE will consider all comments received on this proposed 
determination in issuing any final determination.

VI. Procedural Issues and Regulatory Review

A. Review Under Executive Order 12866

    This proposed determination has been determined to be not 
significant for purposes of Executive Order 12866, ``Regulatory 
Planning and Review,'' 58 FR 51735 (Oct. 4, 1993). As a result, the OMB 
did not review this proposed determination.

B. Review Under Executive Orders 13771 and 13777

    On January 30, 2017, the President issued Executive Order (E.O.) 
13771, ``Reducing Regulation and Controlling Regulatory Costs.'' E.O. 
13771 stated the policy of the executive branch is to be prudent and 
financially responsible in the expenditure of funds, from both public 
and private sources. E.O. 13771 stated it is essential to manage the 
costs associated with the governmental imposition of private 
expenditures required to comply with Federal regulations.
    Additionally, on February 24, 2017, the President issued E.O. 
13777, ``Enforcing the Regulatory Reform Agenda.'' E.O. 13777 required 
the head of each agency to designate an agency official as its 
Regulatory Reform Officer (RRO). Each RRO oversees the implementation 
of regulatory reform initiatives and policies to ensure that agencies 
effectively carry out regulatory reforms, consistent with applicable 
law. Further, E.O. 13777 requires the establishment of a regulatory 
task force at each agency. The regulatory task force is required to 
make recommendations to the agency head regarding the repeal, 
replacement, or modification of existing regulations, consistent with 
applicable law. At a minimum, each regulatory reform task force must 
attempt to identify regulations that:
    (1) Eliminate jobs, or inhibit job creation;
    (2) Are outdated, unnecessary, or ineffective;
    (3) Impose costs that exceed benefits;
    (4) Create a serious inconsistency or otherwise interfere with 
regulatory reform initiatives and policies;
    (5) Are inconsistent with the requirements of Information Quality 
Act, or the guidance issued pursuant to that Act, in particular those 
regulations that rely in whole or in part on data, information, or 
methods that are not publicly available or that are insufficiently 
transparent to meet the standard for reproducibility; or
    (6) Derive from or implement Executive Orders or other Presidential 
directives that have been subsequently rescinded or substantially 
modified.
    DOE initially concludes that this rulemaking is consistent with the 
directives set forth in these executive orders.
    As discussed in this document, DOE is proposing not to amend energy 
conservation standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts. Therefore, if 
finalized as proposed, this proposed determination is expected to be an 
E.O. 13771 other action.

C. Review Under the Regulatory Flexibility Act

    The Regulatory Flexibility Act (5 U.S.C. 601 et seq.) requires 
preparation of an initial regulatory flexibility analysis (IRFA) for 
any rule that by law must be proposed for public comment, unless the 
agency certifies that the rule, if promulgated, will not have a 
significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities. 
As required by Executive Order 13272, ``Proper Consideration of Small 
Entities in Agency Rulemaking,'' 67 FR 53461 (Aug. 16, 2002), DOE 
published procedures and policies on February 19, 2003, to ensure that 
the potential impacts of its rules on small entities are properly 
considered during the rulemaking process. 68 FR 7990. DOE has made its 
procedures and policies available on the Office of the General 
Counsel's website (http://energy.gov/gc/office-general-counsel).
    DOE reviewed this proposed determination under the provisions of 
the Regulatory Flexibility Act and the policies and procedures 
published on February 19, 2003. Because DOE is

[[Page 56584]]

proposing not to amend standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts, if 
adopted, the determination would not amend any energy conservation 
standards. On the basis of the foregoing, DOE certifies that the 
proposed determination, if adopted, would have no significant economic 
impact on a substantial number of small entities. Accordingly, DOE has 
not prepared an IRFA for this proposed determination. DOE will transmit 
this certification and supporting statement of factual basis to the 
Chief Counsel for Advocacy of the Small Business Administration for 
review under 5 U.S.C. 605(b).

D. Review Under the Paperwork Reduction Act

    Manufacturers of fluorescent lamp ballasts must certify to DOE that 
their products comply with any applicable energy conservation 
standards. In certifying compliance, manufacturers must test their 
products according to the DOE test procedures for fluorescent lamp 
ballasts, including any amendments adopted for those test procedures. 
DOE has established regulations for the certification and recordkeeping 
requirements for all covered consumer products and commercial 
equipment, including fluorescent lamp ballasts. 76 FR 12422 (March 7, 
2011); 80 FR 5099 (Jan. 30, 2015). The collection-of-information 
requirement for the certification and recordkeeping is subject to 
review and approval by OMB under the Paperwork Reduction Act (PRA). 
This requirement has been approved by OMB under OMB control number 
1910-1400. Public reporting burden for the certification is estimated 
to average 35 hours per response, including the time for reviewing 
instructions, searching existing data sources, gathering and 
maintaining the data needed, and completing and reviewing the 
collection of information.
    Notwithstanding any other provision of the law, no person is 
required to respond to, nor shall any person be subject to a penalty 
for failure to comply with, a collection of information subject to the 
requirements of the PRA, unless that collection of information displays 
a currently valid OMB Control Number.

E. Review Under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969

    DOE is analyzing this proposed action in accordance with the 
National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) and DOE's NEPA implementing 
regulations (10 CFR part 1021). DOE's regulations include a categorical 
exclusion for actions which are interpretations or rulings with respect 
to existing regulations. 10 CFR part 1021, subpart D, Appendix A4. DOE 
anticipates that this action qualifies for categorical exclusion A4 
because it is an interpretation or ruling in regards to an existing 
regulation and otherwise meets the requirements for application of a 
categorical exclusion. See 10 CFR 1021.410. DOE will complete its NEPA 
review before issuing the final action.

F. Review Under Executive Order 13132

    Executive Order 13132, ``Federalism,'' 64 FR 43255 (Aug. 10, 1999), 
imposes certain requirements on Federal agencies formulating and 
implementing policies or regulations that preempt State law or that 
have federalism implications. The Executive Order requires agencies to 
examine the constitutional and statutory authority supporting any 
action that would limit the policymaking discretion of the States and 
to carefully assess the necessity for such actions. The Executive Order 
also requires agencies to have an accountable process to ensure 
meaningful and timely input by State and local officials in the 
development of regulatory policies that have federalism implications. 
On March 14, 2000, DOE published a statement of policy describing the 
intergovernmental consultation process it will follow in the 
development of such regulations. 65 FR 13735. DOE has examined this 
proposed determination and has tentatively determined that it would not 
have a substantial direct effect on the States, on the relationship 
between the national government and the States, or on the distribution 
of power and responsibilities among the various levels of government. 
EPCA governs and prescribes Federal preemption of State regulations as 
to energy conservation for the products that are the subject of this 
proposed determination. States can petition DOE for exemption from such 
preemption to the extent, and based on criteria, set forth in EPCA. (42 
U.S.C. 6297) Therefore, no further action is required by Executive 
Order 13132.

G. Review Under Executive Order 12988

    With respect to the review of existing regulations and the 
promulgation of new regulations, section 3(a) of Executive Order 12988, 
``Civil Justice Reform,'' imposes on Federal agencies the general duty 
to adhere to the following requirements: (1) Eliminate drafting errors 
and ambiguity, (2) write regulations to minimize litigation, (3) 
provide a clear legal standard for affected conduct rather than a 
general standard, and (4) promote simplification and burden reduction. 
61 FR 4729 (Feb. 7, 1996). Regarding the review required by section 
3(a), section 3(b) of Executive Order 12988 specifically requires that 
Executive agencies make every reasonable effort to ensure that the 
regulation: (1) Clearly specifies the preemptive effect, if any, (2) 
clearly specifies any effect on existing Federal law or regulation, (3) 
provides a clear legal standard for affected conduct while promoting 
simplification and burden reduction, (4) specifies the retroactive 
effect, if any, (5) adequately defines key terms, and (6) addresses 
other important issues affecting clarity and general draftsmanship 
under any guidelines issued by the Attorney General. Section 3(c) of 
Executive Order 12988 requires Executive agencies to review regulations 
in light of applicable standards in section 3(a) and section 3(b) to 
determine whether they are met or it is unreasonable to meet one or 
more of them. DOE has completed the required review and determined 
that, to the extent permitted by law, this proposed determination meets 
the relevant standards of Executive Order 12988.

H. Review Under the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995

    Title II of the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (UMRA) 
requires each Federal agency to assess the effects of Federal 
regulatory actions on State, local, and Tribal governments and the 
private sector. Public Law 104-4, sec. 201 (codified at 2 U.S.C. 1531). 
For a proposed regulatory action likely to result in a rule that may 
cause the expenditure by State, local, and Tribal governments, in the 
aggregate, or by the private sector of $100 million or more in any one 
year (adjusted annually for inflation), section 202 of UMRA requires a 
Federal agency to publish a written statement that estimates the 
resulting costs, benefits, and other effects on the national economy. 
(2 U.S.C. 1532(a) and (b)) The UMRA also requires a Federal agency to 
develop an effective process to permit timely input by elected officers 
of State, local, and Tribal governments on a proposed ``significant 
intergovernmental mandate,'' and requires an agency plan for giving 
notice and opportunity for timely input to potentially affected small 
governments before establishing any requirements that might 
significantly or uniquely affect them. On March 18, 1997, DOE published 
a statement of policy on its process for intergovernmental consultation 
under UMRA. 62 FR 12820. DOE's policy statement is also available at 
http://energy.gov/sites/prod/files/gcprod/documents/umra_97.pdf.

[[Page 56585]]

    This proposed determination does not contain a Federal 
intergovernmental mandate, nor is it expected to require expenditures 
of $100 million or more in any one year by the private sector. As a 
result, the analytical requirements of UMRA do not apply.

I. Review Under the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act, 
1999

    Section 654 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations 
Act, 1999 (Pub. L. 105-277) requires Federal agencies to issue a Family 
Policymaking Assessment for any rule that may affect family well-being. 
This proposed determination would not have any impact on the autonomy 
or integrity of the family as an institution. Accordingly, DOE has 
concluded that it is not necessary to prepare a Family Policymaking 
Assessment.

J. Review Under Executive Order 12630

    Pursuant to Executive Order 12630, ``Governmental Actions and 
Interference with Constitutionally Protected Property Rights,'' 53 FR 
8859 (March 15, 1988), DOE has determined that this proposed 
determination would not result in any takings that might require 
compensation under the Fifth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

K. Review Under the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act, 
2001

    Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations 
Act, 2001 (44 U.S.C. 3516 note) provides for Federal agencies to review 
most disseminations of information to the public under information 
quality guidelines established by each agency pursuant to general 
guidelines issued by OMB. OMB's guidelines were published at 67 FR 8452 
(Feb. 22, 2002), and DOE's guidelines were published at 67 FR 62446 
(Oct. 7, 2002). DOE has reviewed this NOPD under the OMB and DOE 
guidelines and has concluded that it is consistent with applicable 
policies in those guidelines.

L. Review Under Executive Order 13211

    Executive Order 13211, ``Actions Concerning Regulations That 
Significantly Affect Energy Supply, Distribution, or Use,'' 66 FR 28355 
(May 22, 2001), requires Federal agencies to prepare and submit to OIRA 
at OMB, a Statement of Energy Effects for any proposed significant 
energy action. A ``significant energy action'' is defined as any action 
by an agency that promulgates or is expected to lead to promulgation of 
a final rule, and that (1) is a significant regulatory action under 
Executive Order 12866, or any successor Executive Order; and (2) is 
likely to have a significant adverse effect on the supply, 
distribution, or use of energy, or (3) is designated by the 
Administrator of OIRA as a significant energy action. For any proposed 
significant energy action, the agency must give a detailed statement of 
any adverse effects on energy supply, distribution, or use should the 
proposal be implemented, and of reasonable alternatives to the action 
and their expected benefits on energy supply, distribution, and use.
    Because this proposed determination does not propose amended energy 
conservation standards for fluorescent lamp ballasts, it is not a 
significant energy action, nor has it been designated as such by the 
Administrator at OIRA. Accordingly, DOE has not prepared a Statement of 
Energy Effects.

M. Information Quality

    On December 16, 2004, OMB, in consultation with the Office of 
Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), issued its Final Information 
Quality Bulletin for Peer Review (the Bulletin). 70 FR 2664 (Jan. 14, 
2005). The Bulletin establishes that certain scientific information 
shall be peer reviewed by qualified specialists before it is 
disseminated by the Federal Government, including influential 
scientific information related to agency regulatory actions. The 
purpose of the bulletin is to enhance the quality and credibility of 
the Government's scientific information. Under the Bulletin, the energy 
conservation standards rulemaking analyses are ``influential scientific 
information,'' which the Bulletin defines as ``scientific information 
the agency reasonably can determine will have, or does have, a clear 
and substantial impact on important public policies or private sector 
decisions.'' Id. at 70 FR 2667.
    In response to OMB's Bulletin, DOE conducted formal peer reviews of 
the energy conservation standards development process and the analyses 
that are typically used and has prepared a report describing that peer 
review.\43\ Generation of this report involved a rigorous, formal, and 
documented evaluation using objective criteria and qualified and 
independent reviewers to make a judgment as to the technical/
scientific/business merit, the actual or anticipated results, and the 
productivity and management effectiveness of programs and/or projects. 
DOE has determined that the peer-reviewed analytical process continues 
to reflect current practice, and the Department followed that process 
for developing its determination in the case of the present action.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \43\ ``Energy Conservation Standards Rulemaking Peer Review 
Report.'' 2007. Available at http://energy.gov/eere/buildings/downloads/energy-conservation-standards-rulemaking-peer-review-report-0.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

VII. Public Participation

A. Participation in the Webinar

    The time and date of the webinar are listed in the DATES section at 
the beginning of this document. If no participants register for the 
webinar then it will be cancelled. Webinar registration information, 
participant instructions, and information about the capabilities 
available to webinar participants will be published on DOE's website: 
https://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/standards.aspx?productid=3. Participants are responsible for ensuring 
their systems are compatible with the webinar software.
    Additionally, you may request an in-person meeting to be held prior 
to the close of the request period provided in the DATES section of 
this document. Requests for an in-person meeting may be made by 
contacting Appliance and Equipment Standards Program staff at (202) 
287-1445 or by email: [email protected].

B. Submission of Comments

    DOE will accept comments, data, and information regarding this 
proposed determination no later than the date provided in the DATES 
section at the beginning of this proposed determination. Interested 
parties may submit comments, data, and other information using any of 
the methods described in the ADDRESSES section at the beginning of this 
document.
    Submitting comments via http://www.regulations.gov. The http://www.regulations.gov web page will require you to provide your name and 
contact information. Your contact information will be viewable to DOE 
Building Technologies staff only. Your contact information will not be 
publicly viewable except for your first and last names, organization 
name (if any), and submitter representative name (if any). If your 
comment is not processed properly because of technical difficulties, 
DOE will use this information to contact you. If DOE cannot read your 
comment due to technical difficulties and cannot contact you for 
clarification, DOE may not be able to consider your comment.
    However, your contact information will be publicly viewable if you 
include it in the comment itself or in any documents attached to your 
comment.

[[Page 56586]]

Any information that you do not want to be publicly viewable should not 
be included in your comment, nor in any document attached to your 
comment. Otherwise, persons viewing comments will see only first and 
last names, organization names, correspondence containing comments, and 
any documents submitted with the comments.
    Do not submit to http://www.regulations.gov information for which 
disclosure is restricted by statute, such as trade secrets and 
commercial or financial information (hereinafter referred to as 
Confidential Business Information (CBI)). Comments submitted through 
http://www.regulations.gov cannot be claimed as CBI. Comments received 
through the website will waive any CBI claims for the information 
submitted. For information on submitting CBI, see the Confidential 
Business Information section.
    DOE processes submissions made through http://www.regulations.gov 
before posting. Normally, comments will be posted within a few days of 
being submitted. However, if large volumes of comments are being 
processed simultaneously, your comment may not be viewable for up to 
several weeks. Please keep the comment tracking number that http://www.regulations.gov provides after you have successfully uploaded your 
comment.
    Submitting comments via email, hand delivery/courier, or postal 
mail. Comments and documents submitted via email, hand delivery/
courier, or postal mail also will be posted to http://www.regulations.gov. If you do not want your personal contact 
information to be publicly viewable, do not include it in your comment 
or any accompanying documents. Instead, provide your contact 
information in a cover letter. Include your first and last names, email 
address, telephone number, and optional mailing address. The cover 
letter will not be publicly viewable as long as it does not include any 
comments.
    Include contact information each time you submit comments, data, 
documents, and other information to DOE. If you submit via postal mail 
or hand delivery/courier, please provide all items on a CD, if 
feasible, in which case it is not necessary to submit printed copies. 
No telefacsimiles (faxes) will be accepted.
    Comments, data, and other information submitted to DOE 
electronically should be provided in PDF (preferred), Microsoft Word or 
Excel, WordPerfect, or text (ASCII) file format. Provide documents that 
are not secured, that are written in English, and that are free of any 
defects or viruses. Documents should not contain special characters or 
any form of encryption and, if possible, they should carry the 
electronic signature of the author.
    Campaign form letters. Please submit campaign form letters by the 
originating organization in batches of between 50 to 500 form letters 
per PDF or as one form letter with a list of supporters' names compiled 
into one or more PDFs. This reduces comment processing and posting 
time.
    Confidential Business Information. Pursuant to 10 CFR 1004.11, any 
person submitting information that he or she believes to be 
confidential and exempt by law from public disclosure should submit via 
email, postal mail, or hand delivery/courier two well-marked copies: 
one copy of the document marked ``confidential'' including all the 
information believed to be confidential, and one copy of the document 
marked ``non-confidential'' with the information believed to be 
confidential deleted. Submit these documents via email or on a CD, if 
feasible. DOE will make its own determination about the confidential 
status of the information and treat it according to its determination.
    Factors of interest to DOE when evaluating requests to treat 
submitted information as confidential include (1) a description of the 
items, (2) whether and why such items are customarily treated as 
confidential within the industry, (3) whether the information is 
generally known by or available from other sources, (4) whether the 
information has previously been made available to others without 
obligation concerning its confidentiality, (5) an explanation of the 
competitive injury to the submitting person that would result from 
public disclosure, (6) when such information might lose its 
confidential character due to the passage of time, and (7) why 
disclosure of the information would be contrary to the public interest.
    It is DOE's policy that all comments may be included in the public 
docket, without change and as received, including any personal 
information provided in the comments (except information deemed to be 
exempt from public disclosure).

C. Issues on Which DOE Seeks Comment

    Although DOE welcomes comments on any aspect of this proposal, DOE 
is particularly interested in receiving comments and views of 
interested parties concerning the following issues:
    (1) DOE seeks comment on its evaluation of the efficiency of 
dimming ballasts as BLE at full light output. See section IV.A.2.
    (2) DOE seeks comment on the ELs under consideration for the 
representative and non-representative product classes, including the 
max tech levels. See section IV.B.5 and IV.B.6.
    (3) DOE seeks comment on the methodology and results for estimating 
end-user prices for fluorescent lamp ballasts in this analysis. See 
section IV.C.
    (4) DOE seeks comment on the methods to improve DOE's energy-use 
analysis, as well as any data supporting alternate operating hour 
estimates or assumptions regarding dimming of fluorescent lamp 
ballasts. See section IV.E.
    (5) DOE seeks comment on the type, prevalence, and operating hour 
reductions related to the use of lighting controls used separately in 
commercial, industrial, and residential sectors. See section IV.E.
    (6) DOE seeks comment on the assumptions and methodology for 
estimating annual operating hours. See section IV.E.
    (7) DOE seeks comment whether the shipment scenarios under various 
policy scenarios are reasonable and likely to occur. See section IV.F.
    (8) DOE seeks comment and information on whether dimming ballasts 
should have a different rate of decline than the similar non-dimming 
fluorescent lamp ballasts. See section IV.F.
    (9) DOE seeks comments on which shipment scenario accurately 
characterizes future dimming FLB shipments. See section IV.F.
    (10) DOE seeks comments on which of the four scenarios best 
characterize future shipments of fluorescent lamp ballasts. See section 
IV.F.
    (11) DOE seeks comment on the percentage of customers to model in a 
standards-induced shift that would migrate away from FLB technology. 
See section IV.G.1.
    (12) DOE seeks comments on the specific incremental cost in 
fluorescent lamp ballasts that could trigger a standards-induced shift 
away from fluorescent lamp ballasts. See section IV.G.1.
    (13) DOE seeks comment on the approach for determining input power 
and price for LED devices considered in a standards-induced shift. See 
section IV.G.1.
    (14) DOE seeks comment on the impediments that prevent users of 
fluorescent lamp ballasts from switching to LED lighting. See section 
IV.G.
    (15) DOE seeks comment on the expected effect of potential 
standards on

[[Page 56587]]

the rate at which FLB consumers transition to non-FLB technology. See 
section IV.G.

VIII. Approval of the Office of the Secretary

    The Secretary of Energy has approved publication of this notice of 
proposed determination.

    Signed in Washington, DC, on October 1, 2019.
Daniel R Simmons,
Assistant Secretary, Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy.
[FR Doc. 2019-22537 Filed 10-21-19; 8:45 am]
 BILLING CODE 6450-01-P