[Federal Register Volume 84, Number 116 (Monday, June 17, 2019)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 28132-28170]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2019-12176]
[[Page 28131]]
Vol. 84
Monday,
No. 116
June 17, 2019
Part II
Environmental Protection Agency
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40 CFR Part 52
Approval of Air Quality Implementation Plans; California; South Coast
Air Basin; 1-Hour and 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area Requirements;
Proposed Rule
Federal Register / Vol. 84 , No. 116 / Monday, June 17, 2019 /
Proposed Rules
[[Page 28132]]
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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY
40 CFR Part 52
[EPA-R09-OAR-2019-0051; FRL-9994-76-Region 9]
Approval of Air Quality Implementation Plans; California; South
Coast Air Basin; 1-Hour and 8-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area
Requirements
AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).
ACTION: Proposed rule.
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SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to
approve, or conditionally approve, all or portions of five state
implementation plan (SIP) revisions submitted by the State of
California to meet Clean Air Act (CAA or ``the Act'') requirements for
the 1979 1-hour, 1997 8-hour, and 2008 8-hour ozone national ambient
air quality standards (NAAQS or ``standards'') in the Los Angeles--
South Coast Air Basin, California (``South Coast'') ozone nonattainment
area. The five SIP revisions include the ``Final 2016 Air Quality
Management Plan,'' the ``Revised Proposed 2016 State Strategy for the
State Implementation Plan,'' the ``2018 Updates to the California State
Implementation Plan,'' the ``Updated Federal 1979 1-Hour Ozone Standard
Attainment Demonstration,'' and a local emission statement rule. In
today's action, the EPA refers to these submittals collectively as the
``2016 South Coast Ozone SIP.'' The 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP
addresses the nonattainment area requirements for the 2008 ozone NAAQS,
including the requirements for an emissions inventory, attainment
demonstration, reasonable further progress, reasonably available
control measures, contingency measures, among others; establishes motor
vehicle emissions budgets; and updates the previously-approved control
strategies and attainment demonstrations for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS and
the 1997 ozone NAAQS. The EPA is proposing to approve the 2016 South
Coast Ozone Plan as meeting all the applicable ozone nonattainment area
requirements except for the reasonable further progress contingency
measure requirement, for which the EPA is proposing conditional
approval.
DATES: Written comments must arrive on or before July 17, 2019.
ADDRESSES: Submit your comments, identified by Docket ID No. EPA-R09-
OAR-2019-0051 at https://www.regulations.gov. For comments submitted at
Regulations.gov, follow the online instructions for submitting
comments. Once submitted, comments cannot be edited or removed from
Regulations.gov. The EPA may publish any comment received to its public
docket. Do not submit electronically any information you consider to be
Confidential Business Information (CBI) or other information whose
disclosure is restricted by statute. Multimedia submissions (audio,
video, etc.) must be accompanied by a written comment. The written
comment is considered the official comment and should include
discussion of all points you wish to make. The EPA will generally not
consider comments or comment contents located outside of the primary
submission (i.e., on the web, cloud, or other file sharing system). For
additional submission methods, please contact the person identified in
the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section. For the full EPA public
comment policy, information about CBI or multimedia submissions, and
general guidance on making effective comments, please visit https://www.epa.gov/dockets/commenting-epa-dockets.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: John Ungvarsky, Air Planning Office
(AIR-2), EPA Region IX, 75 Hawthorne Street, San Francisco, CA 94105,
(415) 972-3963, or by email at [email protected].
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Throughout this document, ``we,'' ``us''
and ``our'' refer to the EPA.
Table of Contents
I. Regulatory Context
A. Ozone Standards, Area Designations, and SIPs
B. The South Coast Ozone Nonattainment Area
C. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for 2008 Ozone Nonattainment
Area SIPs
II. Submissions From the State of California To Address 2008 Ozone
Requirements in the South Coast
A. Summary of Submissions
B. Clean Air Act Procedural Requirements for Adoption and
Submission of SIP Revisions
III. Evaluation of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP
A. Emissions Inventories
B. Emissions Statement
C. Reasonably Available Control Measures Demonstration and
Control Strategy
D. Attainment Demonstration
E. Rate of Progress Plan and Reasonable Further Progress
Demonstration
F. Transportation Control Strategies and Measures To Offset
Emissions Increases From Vehicle Miles Traveled
G. Contingency Measures
H. Clean Fuels or Advanced Control Technology for Boilers
I. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity
J. General Conformity Budgets
K. Other Clean Air Act Requirements Applicable to Extreme Ozone
Nonattainment Areas
IV. Proposed Action
V. Incorporation by Reference
VI. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
I. Regulatory Context
A. Ozone Standards, Area Designations, and SIPs
Ground-level ozone pollution is formed from the reaction of
volatile organic compounds (VOC) and oxides of nitrogen
(NOX) in the presence of sunlight.\1\ These two pollutants,
referred to as ozone precursors, are emitted by many types of sources,
including on-and off-road motor vehicles and engines, power plants and
industrial facilities, and smaller area sources such as lawn and garden
equipment and paints.
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\1\ The State of California refers to reactive organic gases
(ROG) rather than VOC in some of its ozone-related SIP submissions.
As a practical matter, ROG and VOC refer to the same set of chemical
constituents, and for the sake of simplicity, we refer to this set
of gases as VOC in this proposed rule.
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Scientific evidence indicates that adverse public health effects
occur following exposure to ozone, particularly in children and adults
with lung disease. Breathing air containing ozone can reduce lung
function and inflame airways, which can increase respiratory symptoms
and aggravate asthma or other lung diseases.\2\
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\2\ ``Fact Sheet--2008 Final Revisions to the National Ambient
Air Quality Standards for Ozone'' dated March 2008.
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Under section 109 of the CAA, the EPA promulgates NAAQS for
pervasive air pollutants, such as ozone. The NAAQS are concentration
levels that, the attainment and maintenance of which, the EPA has
determined to be requisite to protect public health and welfare. In
1979, the EPA established the 1-hour ozone NAAQS of 0.12 parts per
million (ppm) (referred to herein as the ``1-hour ozone NAAQS'').\3\
Section 110 of the CAA requires states to develop and submit SIPs to
implement, maintain, and enforce the NAAQS.
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\3\ 44 FR 8202 (February 8, 1979).
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Under the CAA, as amended in 1977, the EPA designated all areas of
the country as ``nonattainment,'' ``attainment,'' or ``unclassifiable''
with respect to each NAAQS, and in so doing, designated the South Coast
\4\ as a nonattainment area for photochemical oxidant (later ozone).\5\
States with nonattainment areas are required to submit revisions to
their SIPs that
[[Page 28133]]
include a control strategy and technical analysis to demonstrate how
the area will attain the NAAQS (referred to as an ``attainment
demonstration''), and the EPA took action on a number of related SIP
revisions submitted by the California Air Resources Board (CARB) in the
late 1970s and 1980s for the South Coast 1-hour ozone nonattainment
area.\6\ By 1990, like many other areas throughout the country, the
South Coast had not attained the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, and under the CAA
Amendments of 1990, the South Coast was classified as an ``Extreme''
nonattainment area for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS with an attainment
deadline of November 15, 2010 and was subject to additional SIP
planning requirements, including a revised attainment demonstration.\7\
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\4\ The South Coast includes Orange County, the southwestern
two-thirds of Los Angeles County, southwestern San Bernardino
County, and western Riverside County (see 40 CFR 81.305).
\5\ 43 FR 8962 (March 3, 1978).
\6\ Under California law, CARB is the state agency that is
responsible for the adoption and submission to the EPA of California
SIPs and SIP revisions, and it has broad authority to establish
emissions standards and other requirements for mobile sources. Local
and regional air pollution control districts in California are
responsible for the regulation of stationary sources and are
generally responsible for the development of regional air quality
plans. In the South Coast, the South Coast Air Quality Management
District develops and adopts air quality management plans to address
CAA planning requirements applicable to that region. Such plans are
then submitted to CARB for adoption and submittal to the EPA as
revisions to the California SIP.
\7\ 56 FR 56694 (November 6, 1991).
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In the wake of the classification of the South Coast nonattainment
area as Extreme for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, CARB submitted a number of
SIP revisions for the South Coast that contained attainment
demonstrations for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS and other SIP elements, and
that relied on a combination of mobile source control measures adopted
by CARB and stationary source control measures adopted by the South
Coast Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD or ``District''). In
connection with these submittals, the EPA took the following actions:
1994 South Coast Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) and
related state strategy--The EPA approved the 15 percent Rate-of-
Progress (ROP) demonstration and the attainment demonstration, among
other elements, for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS at 62 FR 1150 (January 8,
1997);
1997 AQMP, as revised in 1999--The EPA approved the
revised control strategy and attainment demonstration for the 1-hour
ozone NAAQS at 65 FR 18903 (April 10, 2000); and
2003 AQMP and related state strategy--The EPA approved
certain new commitments for emissions reductions but disapproved the
revised 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration at 74 FR 10176 (March 10,
2009).
Each of these plans builds upon a foundation of regulations adopted
and implemented by the SCAQMD, CARB, and the EPA for stationary and
mobile sources, and includes commitments for new or more stringent
regulations to achieve additional emissions reductions necessary for
attainment. Each subsequent ozone plan then builds upon the foundation
of the new or strengthened regulations that were adopted to support the
previous plan. While the emissions reduction measures implemented under
these South Coast ozone plans have been successful in reducing ozone
concentrations in the South Coast, the South Coast failed to attain the
1-hour ozone NAAQS by the applicable attainment date of November 15,
2010.\8\
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\8\ 76 FR 82133 (December 30, 2011).
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In 1997, the EPA revised the NAAQS for ozone, setting it at 0.08
ppm averaged over an 8-hour timeframe (referred to herein as the ``1997
ozone NAAQS'') to replace the existing 1-hour ozone NAAQS of 0.12
ppm.\9\ In 2004, the EPA designated and classified the South Coast area
as a ``Severe-17'' nonattainment area for the 1997 ozone NAAQS but
later granted CARB's request to reclassify the South Coast to Extreme
nonattainment for the 1997 ozone NAAQS.\10\ The corresponding
applicable attainment year for the 1997 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast
is 2023. In response to this designation, CARB submitted the 2007 South
Coast AQMP and related 2007 State Strategy, as amended in 2009 and 2011
(collectively, referred to as the ``2007 South Coast Ozone SIP'') and
the EPA took the following action:
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\9\ 62 FR 38856 (July 18, 1997).
\10\ 75 FR 24409 (May 5, 2010).
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2007 South Coast Ozone SIP--Among other elements, the EPA
approved the emission inventory, reasonably available control measures
demonstration, reasonable further progress demonstration, control
strategy and attainment demonstration for the 1997 ozone NAAQS at 77 FR
12674 (March 1, 2012), amended at 77 FR 70707 (November 27, 2012).
The 1997 ozone NAAQS control strategy in the 2007 South Coast Ozone
SIP builds upon the control strategy established under the previous 1-
hour ozone plans. In connection with our approval of the South Coast
attainment demonstration for the 1997 ozone NAAQS, the EPA approved a
number of commitments by CARB and the SCAQMD as part of the California
SIP. The commitments included bringing certain defined measures before
their respective boards by certain dates, achieving certain aggregate
emissions reductions by certain milestone years, and achieving
emissions reductions from development and implementation of advanced
control technologies under CAA section 182(e)(5).
In 2012, the EPA's 2009 final partial approval and partial
disapproval action on the 2003 AQMP and related state strategy for the
1-hour ozone NAAQS was successfully challenged in the Ninth Circuit
Court of Appeals,\11\ and in response, the EPA issued a SIP call under
CAA section 110(k)(5) to California for a new 1-hour ozone attainment
demonstration for the South Coast.\12\ CARB and the District, in turn,
prepared and submitted a new attainment demonstration for the 1-hour
ozone NAAQS as part of the 2012 AQMP, and the EPA took the following
action:
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\11\ Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d 584
(9th Cir. 2011), reprinted as amended on January 27, 2012, 686 F.3d
668, further amended February 13, 2012.
\12\ 78 FR 889 (January 7, 2013).
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2012 AQMP--The EPA approved new control measures and
commitments for both the 1-hour ozone NAAQS and 1997 ozone NAAQS and
approved a new attainment demonstration for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS in
the South Coast that provides for attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS
by December 31, 2022 at 79 FR 52526 (September 3, 2014).
The SIP revisions that are the subject of today's proposed action
update certain commitments made in connection with the 2007 South Coast
Ozone SIP for the 1997 ozone NAAQS and the 2012 AQMP for both the 1997
ozone NAAQS and the 1-hour ozone NAAQS. These revised commitments
reflect updated emissions inventories and new modeling results.
In 2008, the EPA lowered the 8-hour ozone NAAQS to 0.075 ppm
(referred to herein as the ``2008 ozone NAAQS'') to replace the 1997
ozone NAAQS of 0.08 ppm.\13\ In 2012, the EPA designated the South
Coast as nonattainment for the 2008 ozone NAAQS and classified the area
as Extreme.\14\ Areas classified as Extreme must attain the NAAQS
within 20 years of the effective date of the nonattainment
designation.\15\ The SIP
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revisions that are the subject of today's proposed action address the
Extreme nonattainment area requirements that apply to the South Coast
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
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\13\ 73 FR 16436 (March 27, 2008). The EPA further tightened the
8-hour ozone NAAQS to 0.070 ppm in 2015, but this proposed action
relates to the requirements for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, the 1997
ozone NAAQS and the 2008 ozone NAAQS. Information on the 2015 ozone
NAAQS is available at 80 FR 65292 (October 26, 2015).
\14\ 77 FR 30088 (May 21, 2012).
\15\ CAA section 181(a)(1), 40 CFR 51.1102 and 51.1103(a).
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B. The South Coast Ozone Nonattainment Area
The South Coast nonattainment area for the 2008 ozone NAAQS
consists of Orange County, the southwestern two-thirds of Los Angeles
County, southwestern San Bernardino County, and western Riverside
County. The South Coast nonattainment area encompasses an area of
approximately 6,600 square miles and is bounded by the Pacific Ocean to
the west and the San Gabriel, San Bernardino, and San Jacinto mountains
to the north and east.\16\ The population of the South Coast
nonattainment area is over 16 million people, and it is projected to
increase by 13 percent to over 18 million people in 2031.\17\ The AQMPs
and state control measures discussed above have produced significant
emissions reductions over the years and improved air quality in the
South Coast. For instance, the 8-hour ozone design value for the South
Coast decreased from 0.166 ppm to 0.102 ppm from 1995 to 2015, despite
substantial increases in population and business and vehicular
activity, and the 1-hour ozone design value decreased from 0.250 ppm to
0.130 ppm over that same period.\18\
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\16\ For a precise definition of the boundaries of the South
Coast 2008 ozone nonattainment area, see 40 CFR 81.305.
\17\ 2016 AQMP, page 1-5.
\18\ For the 8-hour ozone NAAQS, the design value at any given
monitoring site is the 3-year average of the annual fourth highest
daily maximum 8-hour average ambient air quality ozone
concentration. For the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, the design value at any
given monitoring site is the fourth highest daily maximum 1-hour
ozone concentration measured over a three-year period. The maximum
design value among the various ozone monitoring sites is the design
value for the area. The ozone data for 1995 through 2015 are from
appendix II (``Current Air Quality'') of the 2016 AQMP.
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C. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for 2008 Ozone Nonattainment Area
SIPs
States must implement the 2008 ozone NAAQS under Title 1, part D of
the CAA, including sections 171-179B of subpart 1 (``Nonattainment
Areas in General'') and sections 181-185 of subpart 2 (``Additional
Provisions for Ozone Nonattainment Areas''). To assist states in
developing effective plans to address ozone nonattainment problems, in
2015, the EPA issued a SIP Requirements Rule (SRR) for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS (``2008 Ozone SRR'') that addressed implementation of the 2008
standards, including attainment dates, requirements for emissions
inventories, attainment and reasonable further progress (RFP)
demonstrations, among other SIP elements, as well as the transition
from the 1997 ozone NAAQS to the 2008 ozone NAAQS and associated anti-
backsliding requirements.\19\ The 2008 Ozone SRR is codified at 40 CFR
part 51, subpart AA. We discuss the CAA and regulatory requirements for
the elements of 2008 ozone plans relevant to this proposal in more
detail below.
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\19\ 80 FR 12264 (March 6, 2015).
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The EPA's 2008 Ozone SRR was challenged, and on February 16, 2018,
the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit (``D.C. Circuit'')
published its decision in South Coast Air Quality Management District
v. EPA \20\ (``South Coast II'') \21\ vacating portions of the 2008
Ozone SRR. The only aspect of the South Coast II decision that affects
this proposed action is the vacatur of the alternative baseline year
for RFP plans. More specifically, the 2008 Ozone SRR required states to
develop the baseline emissions inventory for RFP plans using the
emissions for the most recent calendar year for which states submit a
triennial inventory to the EPA under subpart A (``Air Emissions
Reporting Requirements'') of 40 CFR part 51, which was 2011. However,
the 2008 Ozone SRR allowed states to use an alternative year, between
2008 and 2012, for the baseline emissions inventory provided that the
state demonstrated why the alternative baseline year was appropriate.
In the South Coast II decision, the D.C. Circuit vacated the provisions
of the 2008 Ozone SRR that allowed states to use an alternative
baseline year for demonstrating RFP.
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\20\ South Coast Air Quality Management District v. EPA, 882
F.3d 1138 (D.C. Cir. 2018) (``South Coast II'').
\21\ The term ``South Coast II'' is used in reference to the
2018 court decision to distinguish it from a decision published in
2006 also referred to as ``South Coast.'' The earlier decision
involved a challenge to the EPA's Phase 1 implementation rule for
the 1997 ozone NAAQS. South Coast Air Quality Management Dist. v.
EPA, 472 F.3d 882 (D.C. Cir. 2006).
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II. Submissions From the State of California To Address 2008 Ozone
Requirements in the South Coast
A. Summary of Submissions
In this document, we are proposing action on all or portions of
five SIP revisions, which are described in detail in the following
paragraphs. Collectively, we refer to the relevant portions of the five
SIP revisions as the ``2016 South Coast Ozone SIP.''
1. SCAQMD's 2016 Air Quality Management Plan
On April 27, 2017, CARB submitted the Final 2016 Air Quality
Management Plan (March 2017) (``2016 AQMP'') to the EPA as a revision
to the California SIP.\22\ The 2016 AQMP addresses the nonattainment
area requirements for the South Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, the
2006 fine particle (PM2.5) NAAQS and the 2012
PM2.5 NAAQS, and for the Coachella Valley for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS. It also updates the approved attainment demonstrations for the
1-hour ozone and 1997 ozone NAAQS for the South Coast and adds new
measures to reduce the reliance on section 182(e)(5) new technology
measures to attain those standards. We have already taken action to
approve the 2016 AQMP with respect to the 2006 PM2.5 NAAQS
(except for the related contingency measure element).\23\ In this
document, we are proposing action on the ozone portion of the 2016 AQMP
for the South Coast. Action on the portions of the 2016 AQMP that
relate to the 2012 PM2.5 NAAQS in the South Coast and to the
2008 ozone NAAQS in Coachella Valley will be taken in separate
rulemakings.
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\22\ Letter dated April 27, 2017, from Richard Corey, Executive
Officer, CARB, to Alexis Strauss, Acting Regional Administrator, EPA
Region IX.
\23\ 84 FR 3305 (February 12, 2019).
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The SIP revision for the 2016 AQMP includes the various chapters
and appendices of the 2016 AQMP, described further below, plus the
District's resolution of adoption for the plan (District Resolution 17-
2) and CARB's resolution of adoption of the 2016 AQMP as a revision to
the California SIP (CARB Resolution 17-8) that include commitments on
which the 2016 AQMP relies.\24\ With respect to ozone, the 2016 AQMP
addresses the CAA requirements for emissions inventories, air quality
modeling demonstrating attainment, reasonably available control
measures (RACM), RFP, advanced technology/clean fuels for boilers,
transportation control strategies and measures, and contingency
measures for failure to make RFP, among other requirements.
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\24\ SCAQMD Board Resolution 17-2, March 3, 2017; CARB Board
Resolution 17-8, 2016 Air Quality Management Plan for Ozone and
PM2.5 in the South Coast and the Coachella Valley, March
23, 2017.
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The 2016 AQMP is organized into eleven chapters, most of which are
relevant to the ozone NAAQS in the South Coast.\25\ Chapter 1,
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``Introduction,'' introduces the 2016 AQMP, including its purpose,
historical air quality progress in the South Coast, and the District's
approach to air quality planning. Chapter 2, ``Air Quality and Health
Effects,'' discusses current air quality in comparison with federal
health-based air pollution standards. Chapter 3, ``Base Year and Future
Emissions,'' summarizes emissions inventories, estimates current
emissions by source and pollutant, and projects future emissions with
and without growth. Chapter 4, ``Control Strategy and Implementation,''
presents the control strategy, specific measures, and implementation
schedules to attain the air quality standards by the specified
attainment dates. Chapter 5, ``Future Air Quality,'' describes the
modeling approach used in the 2016 AQMP and summarizes the South
Coast's future air quality projections with and without the control
strategy. Chapter 6, ``Federal and State Clean Air Act Requirements,''
discusses specific federal and state requirements as they pertain to
the South Coast, including anti-backsliding requirements for revoked
standards. Chapter 11, ``Public Process and Participation,'' describes
the District's public outreach effort associated with the development
of the 2016 AQMP. A glossary is provided at the end of the document,
presenting definitions of commonly used terms found in the 2016 AQMP.
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\25\ The following chapters or portions thereof in the 2016 AQMP
were submitted for information only and are not subject to review as
part of the SIP revision: The portion of Chapter 6 that is titled
``California Clean Air Act Requirements'' and that discusses
compliance with state law requirements for clean air plans; Chapter
8, ``Looking Beyond Current Requirements,'' assesses the South
Coast's status with respect to the 2015 8-hour ozone standard of
0.070 ppm; Chapter 9, ``Air Toxic Control Strategy,'' examines the
ongoing efforts to reduce health risk from toxic air contaminants,
co-benefits from reducing criteria pollutants, and potential future
actions; and Chapter 10, ``Climate and Energy,'' provides a
description of current and projected energy demand and supply issues
in the South Coast, and the relationship between air quality
improvement and greenhouse gas mitigation goals. As noted
previously, we are not taking action in this rulemaking on the
portions of the 2016 AQMP that relate to the 2008 ozone NAAQS in
Coachella Valley, which includes Chapter 7 (``Current and Future Air
Quality--Desert Nonattainment Areas SIP'') and the portions that
relate to the PM2.5 NAAQS in the South Coast.
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The 2016 AQMP also includes the following technical appendices:
Appendix I (``Health Effects'') presents a summary of
scientific findings on the health effects of ambient air pollutants.
Appendix II (``Current Air Quality'') contains a detailed
summary of the air quality in 2015, along with prior year trends, in
both the South Coast and the Coachella Valley.
Appendix III (``Base and Future Year Emission Inventory'')
presents the 2012 base year emissions inventory and projected emission
inventories of air pollutants in future attainment years for both
annual average and summer planning inventories.
Appendix IV-A (``SCAQMD's Stationary and Mobile Source
Control Measures'') describes SCAQMD's proposed stationary and mobile
source control measures to attain the federal ozone and fine
particulate matter PM2.5 standards.
Appendix IV-B (``CARB's Mobile Source Strategy'')
describes CARB's proposed 2016 strategy to attain health-based federal
air quality standards.
Appendix IV-C (``Regional Transportation Strategy and
Control Measures'') describes the Southern California Association of
Governments' (SCAG) ``Final 2016-2040 Regional Transportation Plan/
Sustainable Communities Strategy'' and transportation control measures
included in the 2016 PM2.5 Plan.
Appendix V (``Modeling and Attainment Demonstrations'')
provides the details of the regional modeling for the attainment
demonstration.
Appendix VI (``Compliance with Other Clean Air Act
Requirements'') provides the District's demonstration that the 2016
AQMP complies with specific CAA requirements.
As discussed in section III.D of this notice, the attainment
demonstrations for the 1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS in the 2016 AQMP rely
on certain commitments made by CARB in the Revised Proposed 2016 State
Strategy for the State Implementation Plan (March 7, 2017) (``2016
State Strategy''), which was also submitted on April 27, 2017. Since
submittal of the 2016 AQMP, the District and CARB have updated and
supplemented certain other elements of the 2016 AQMP (such as the RFP
demonstration, contingency measure element, motor vehicle emissions
budgets, and 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration) through SIP
revision submittals dated December 5, 2018 and December 20, 2018, also
discussed in section II.A of this notice.
2. CARB's 2016 State Strategy
On April 27, 2017, CARB submitted the 2016 State Strategy to the
EPA as a revision to the California SIP.\26\ The SIP revision for the
2016 State Strategy includes the main document itself plus CARB's
resolution of adoption of the 2016 State Strategy (CARB Resolution 17-
7) that includes commitments on which the 2016 State Strategy
relies.\27\
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\26\ Letter dated April 27, 2017 from Richard Corey, Executive
Officer, CARB, to Alexis Strauss, Acting Regional Administrator, EPA
Region IX.
\27\ CARB Board Resolution 17-7, 2016 State Strategy for the
State Implementation Plan, March 23, 2017.
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CARB worked closely with the District in the development of the
2016 AQMP and anticipated the need to adopt State commitments to
achieve aggregate emission reductions in the South Coast. The
commitment in the 2016 State Strategy includes two components: (1) A
commitment to bring to the CARB Board for consideration, or to
otherwise take action on, certain defined new measures (e.g., new
California low-NOX standards for on-road heavy-duty engines,
low-emission diesel requirements for off-road equipment, and continued
development of advanced technologies pursuant to CAA section
182(e)(5)), and (2) a commitment to achieve aggregate emissions
reductions by specific dates. In the 2016 State Strategy, CARB made
separate aggregate emissions reduction commitments for the South Coast
and San Joaquin Valley.
On February 12, 2019, we approved CARB's commitment from the 2016
State Strategy for the 2008 ozone NAAQS attainment plan for the San
Joaquin Valley.\28\ In today's action, we are proposing approval of
CARB's commitment from the 2016 State Strategy for the 2016 South Coast
Ozone SIP. With respect to the South Coast, CARB's aggregate emissions
reduction commitment amounts to 113 tons per day (tpd) of
NOX and 50 to 51 tpd of VOCs by 2023 to meet the 1997 ozone
NAAQS, and 111 tpd of NOX and 59 to 60 tpd of VOCs by 2031
to meet 2008 ozone NAAQS.\29\
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\28\ 84 FR 3302 (February 12, 2019).
\29\ Staff Report, ARB Review of the 2016 Air Quality Management
Plan for the South Coast Air Basin and Coachella Valley, March 7,
2017; CARB Board Resolution 17-7, 2016 State Strategy for the State
Implementation Plan, March 23, 2017.
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3. CARB's 2018 Updates to the California State Implementation Plan
On December 5, 2018, CARB submitted the 2018 Updates to the
California State Implementation Plan (``2018 SIP Update'') to the EPA
as a revision to the California SIP.\30\ CARB adopted the 2018 SIP
Update on October 25, 2018. CARB developed the 2018 SIP Update in
response to the court's decision in South Coast II vacating the 2008
Ozone SRR with respect to the use of an alternate baseline year for
demonstrating RFP and to address contingency measure requirements in
the wake of the court decision in Bahr v. EPA.\31\ The 2018 SIP
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Update includes an RFP demonstration using the required 2011 baseline
year for the South Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. The 2018 SIP Update
also includes updated motor vehicle emission budgets and information to
support the contingency measure element.
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\30\ Letter dated December 5, 2018, from Richard Corey,
Executive Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA
Region IX.
\31\ Bahr v. EPA, 836 F.3d 1218 (9th Cir. 2016) (``Bahr v.
EPA''). In Bahr v. EPA, the court rejected the EPA's longstanding
interpretation of CAA section 172(c)(9) as allowing for early
implementation of contingency measures. The court concluded that a
contingency measure must take effect at the time the area fails to
make RFP or attain by the applicable attainment date, not before.
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The 2018 SIP Update includes updates for 8 different California
ozone nonattainment areas. We have already taken action to approve the
San Joaquin Valley portion of the 2018 SIP Update,\32\ and in today's
document, we are taking action on the South Coast portion of the 2018
SIP Update. Also, to supplement the contingency measure element of the
2016 South Coast Ozone SIP, CARB forwarded a January 29, 2019 letter of
commitment from the District.\33\ In its letter, the District commits
to modify an existing rule or adopt a new rule to create a contingency
measure that will be triggered if the area fails to meet an RFP
milestone for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.\34\ In the February 13, 2019
letter, CARB commits to submit the revised District rule to the EPA as
a SIP revision within 12 months of the final action on the EPA's final
action on the RFP contingency measure element of the 2016 South Coast
Ozone SIP.\35\
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\32\ 84 FR 11198 (March 25, 2019). In our March 25, 2019 final
rule, the EPA approved Resolution 18-50 (adopting the 2018 SIP
Update as a SIP revision), including Attachments A (``Covered
Districts''), B (``Menu of Enhanced Enforcement Actions'') and C
(``Correction of Typographical Error''), chapter VIII (``SIP
Elements for the San Joaquin Valley''), chapter X (``Contingency
Measures'') and Appendix A (``Nonattainment Area Inventories''), A-
1, A-2 and A-27 through A-30, only.
\33\ Letter dated February 13, 2019, from Richard Corey,
Executive Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA
Region IX.
\34\ Letter dated January 29, 2019, from Wayne Nastri, SCAQMD
Executive Officer, to Richard Corey, CARB Executive Officer. The
District clarified its January 29, 2019 commitment in a letter dated
May 2, 2019, from Wayne Nastri, SCAQMD Executive Officer, to Richard
Corey, CARB Executive Officer. CARB forwarded the District's
clarification to the EPA in a letter dated May 20, 2019, from
Michael Benjamin, CARB, to Amy Zimpfer, EPA Region IX.
\35\ Letter dated February 13, 2019, from Richard Corey,
Executive Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA
Region IX.
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4. SCAQMD's Updated Attainment Demonstration for the 1-Hour Ozone NAAQS
On December 20, 2018, CARB submitted the Updated Federal 1979 1-
Hour Ozone Standard Attainment Demonstration (November 2018) (``1-Hour
Ozone Update'') to the EPA as a revision to the California SIP.\36\ The
emissions inventories used for the 1997 and 2008 (8-hour) ozone
attainment demonstrations in the 2016 AQMP reflect planning assumptions
that were updated after the District had completed the 1-hour ozone
attainment demonstration for the 2016 AQMP, and the District prepared
the 1-Hour Ozone Update to align the attainment demonstration for the
1-hour ozone NAAQS with the attainment demonstrations in the 2016 AQMP
for the 1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS.
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\36\ Letter dated December 20, 2018, from Richard Corey,
Executive Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA
Region IX.
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The 1-Hour Ozone Update includes an updated emissions inventory
consistent with the final emissions inventory used for the 8-hour ozone
attainment demonstrations in the 2016 AQMP, revised air quality
modeling, and an updated attainment strategy that demonstrates
attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by 2022 without the need for
reductions from CAA section 182(e)(5) new technology measures. While
the updated attainment demonstration for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS no
longer relies on emissions reductions from the 2016 State Strategy or
CAA section 182(e)(5) measures, it continues to rely on the District's
commitment from the 2016 AQMP to achieve aggregate emissions reductions
of 20.6 tpd of NOX and 6.1 tpd of VOC by 2022.
5. SCAQMD's Rule 301 (``Permitting and Associated Fees'')
On May 20, 2019, CARB requested that the EPA accept a public draft
revision to District Rule 301 (``Permitting and Associated Fees'') for
parallel processing.\37\ Under the EPA's parallel processing procedure,
the EPA may propose action on a public draft version of a SIP revision
but will take final action only after the state adopts and submits the
final version to the EPA for approval.\38\ If there are no significant
changes from the public draft version of the SIP revision to the final
version, the EPA may elect to take final action on the proposal. The
draft revision was released for public review on May 17, 2019. In this
case, it is anticipated that the District will adopt without
significant modifications revised Rule 301 on July 12, 2019 and will
submit the revised rule to CARB for adoption and submittal to the EPA
as a revision to the California SIP. We are proposing our action based
on the public draft version of revised Rule 301 submitted to us for
parallel processing on May 20, 2019.
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\37\ Letter dated May 20, 2019, from Richard Corey, CARB
Executive Officer, to Michael Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA
Region IX.
\38\ See 40 CFR part 51, appendix V, section 2.3.
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District Rule 301 includes a number of provisions related solely to
fees, which are not required to be in the SIP, but, it also includes
certain provisions (specifically, paragraphs (e)(1)(A) and (B), (e)(2),
(e)(5) and (e)(8)) that require annual reporting of emissions of VOC
and NOX from certain stationary sources. The relevant
provisions of District Rule 301 are intended by the District and CARB
to address the emissions statement requirement in CAA section
182(a)(3)(B) for the South Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. In this
document, we are proposing action on the relevant portions of revised
District Rule 301 based on the public draft version of the rule
submitted to us for parallel processing on May 20, 2019.
B. Clean Air Act Procedural Requirements for Adoption and Submission of
SIP Revisions
CAA sections 110(a) and 110(l) require a state to provide
reasonable public notice and opportunity for public hearing prior to
the adoption and submission of a SIP or SIP revision. To meet this
requirement, every SIP submittal should include evidence that adequate
public notice was given and an opportunity for a public hearing was
provided consistent with the EPA's implementing regulations in 40 CFR
51.102.
Both the District and CARB have satisfied the applicable statutory
and regulatory requirements for reasonable public notice and hearing
prior to the adoption and submittal of the SIP revisions that comprise
the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP. With respect to the 2016 AQMP, the
District held six regional workshops from July 14 through July 21, 2016
to discuss the plan and solicit public input. On December 19 and 20,
2016, the District published notices in several local newspapers of a
public hearing to be held on February 3, 2017, for the adoption of the
2016 AQMP.\39\ On February 3, 2017, the District held the public
hearing, and, through Resolution 17-2, adopted on March 3, 2017, the
2016 AQMP and directed the Executive Officer to forward the plan to
CARB for inclusion in the California SIP.
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\39\ Memorandum dated January 24, 2017, from Denise Garzaro,
Clerk of the Boards, SCAQMD to Arlene Martinez, Administrative
Secretary, Planning, Rule Development and Area Sources, SCAQMD. The
memorandum includes copies of the proofs of publication of the
notice for the February 3, 2017 public hearing.
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CARB also provided public notice and opportunity for public comment
on the 2016 AQMP. On March 6, 2017, CARB
[[Page 28137]]
released for public review its Staff Report for the 2016 AQMP and
published a notice of public meeting to be held on March 23, 2017, to
consider adoption of the 2016 AQMP.\40\ On March 23, 2017, CARB held
the hearing and adopted the 2016 AQMP as a revision to the California
SIP, excluding those portions not required to be submitted to the EPA,
and directed the Executive Officer to submit the 2016 AQMP to the EPA
for approval into the California SIP.\41\ On April 27, 2017, the
Executive Officer of CARB submitted the 2016 AQMP to the EPA and
included the transcript of the hearing held on March 23, 2017.\42\ On
October 23, 2017, the EPA determined that the portions of this
submittal applicable to the 2008 ozone NAAQS were complete.\43\
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\40\ Notice of Public Meeting to Consider Adopting the 2016 Air
Quality Management Plan for Ozone and PM2.5 for the South
Coast Air Basin and the Coachella Valley signed by Richard Corey,
Executive Officer, CARB, March 6, 2017.
\41\ CARB Resolution 17-8, 10.
\42\ Transcript of the March 23, 2017 Meeting of the State of
California Air Resources Board.
\43\ Letter dated October 23, 2017, from Matthew J. Lakin,
Acting Director, Air Division, EPA Region IX to Richard Corey,
Executive Officer, CARB.
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With respect to the 2016 State Strategy, on May 17, 2016, CARB
circulated for public review and comment the Proposed State Strategy,
provided a 60-day comment period, and provided notice of a public
hearing by its Board to be held on September 22, 2016. On March 7,
2017, in response to comments received during the public comment period
and later during public workshops, and, based on Board direction
provided to staff during the September 22, 2016 Board meeting, CARB
released a Revised Proposed State Strategy. On March 23, 2017, through
Resolution 17-7, CARB adopted the 2016 State Strategy following public
hearing. On April 27, 2017, CARB submitted the 2016 State Strategy to
the EPA as a revision to the California SIP.
With respect to the 2018 SIP Update, CARB also provided public
notice and opportunity for public comment. On September 21, 2018, CARB
released for public review the 2018 SIP Update and published a notice
of public meeting to be held on October 23, 2018, to consider adoption
of the 2018 SIP Update.\44\ On October 23, 2018, through Resolution 18-
50, CARB adopted the 2018 SIP Update. On December 5, 2018, CARB
submitted the 2018 SIP Update to the EPA.
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\44\ Notice of Public Meeting to Consider the 2018 Updates to
the California State Implementation Plan signed by Richard Corey,
Executive Officer, CARB, September 21, 2018.
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With respect to the 1-Hour Ozone Update, the District held a
workshop on September 20, 2018. On October 3, 2018, the District
published notices in several local newspapers for a public hearing to
be held on November 2, 2018, for the adoption of the 1-Hour Ozone
Update.\45\ On November 2, 2018, the District held the public hearing,
and, through Resolution 18-20, adopted the 1-Hour Ozone Update and
directed the Executive Officer to forward the plan to CARB for
inclusion in the California SIP. On November 9, 2018, CARB published a
notice of public meeting to be held on December 5, 2018, to consider
adoption of the 1-Hour Ozone Update.\46\ On December 13, 2018, through
Resolution 18-55, CARB adopted the 1-Hour Ozone Update, and on December
20, 2018, CARB submitted the 1-Hour Ozone Update to the EPA.
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\45\ See proofs of publications dated October 3, 2018, from the
Inland Daily Bulletin, Los Angeles Daily Journal, Orange County
Reporter, The Press Enterprise, and San Bernardino Sun.
\46\ Notice of Public Meeting to Consider the Proposed Revision
to the South Coast 1-Hr Ozone State Implementation Plan signed by
Richard Corey, Executive Officer, CARB, November 9, 2018.
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With respect to District Rule 301, by letter dated May 20, 2019,
CARB submitted the public draft revision to District Rule 301 to the
EPA with a request for parallel processing. The District is expected to
adopt the revision on July 12, 2019, and to forward the rule (along
with the necessary public process documentation) to CARB for approval
and submittal to the EPA as a revision the California SIP.
Based on information provided in each of the SIP revisions
summarized above, the EPA has determined that all hearings were
properly noticed. Therefore, we find that the submittals of the 2016
AQMP, the 2016 State Strategy, the 2018 SIP Update, and the 1-Hour
Ozone Update meet the procedural requirements for public notice and
hearing in CAA sections 110(a) and 110(l) and 40 CFR 51.102. We
anticipate receipt of all the necessary public process documentation
for adoption of District Rule 301 when we receive the formal SIP
submittal package from CARB.
III. Evaluation of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP
A. Emissions Inventories
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
CAA sections 172(c)(3) and 182(a)(1) require states to submit for
each ozone nonattainment area a ``base year inventory'' that is a
comprehensive, accurate, current inventory of actual emissions from all
sources of the relevant pollutant or pollutants in the area. In
addition, the 2008 Ozone SRR requires that the inventory year be
selected consistent with the baseline year for the RFP demonstration,
which is the most recent calendar year for which a complete triennial
inventory is required to be submitted to the EPA under the Air
Emissions Reporting Requirements.\47\
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\47\ 2008 Ozone SRR at 40 CFR 51.1115(a) and the Air Emissions
Reporting Requirements at 40 CFR part 51 subpart A.
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The EPA has issued guidance on the development of base year and
future year emissions inventories for 8-hour ozone and other
pollutants.\48\ Emissions inventories for ozone must include emissions
of VOC and NOX and represent emissions for a typical ozone
season weekday.\49\ States should include documentation explaining how
the emissions data were calculated. In estimating mobile source
emissions, states should use the latest emissions models and planning
assumptions available at the time the SIP is developed.\50\
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\48\ ``Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of Ozone
and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air Quality Standards
(NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations,'' EPA-454/B-17-002, May 2017.
At the time the 2016 AQMP was developed, the following EPA emissions
inventory guidance applied: ``Emissions Inventory Guidance for
Implementation of Ozone and Particulate Matter National Ambient Air
Quality Standards (NAAQS) and Regional Haze Regulations'' EPA-454-R-
05-001, November 2005.
\49\ 40 CFR 51.1115(a) and (c), and 40 CFR 51.1100(bb) and (cc).
\50\ 80 FR 12264, at 12290 (March 6, 2015).
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Future baseline emissions inventories must reflect the most recent
population, employment, travel and congestion estimates for the area.
In this context, ``baseline'' emissions inventories refer to emissions
estimates for a given year and area that reflect rules and regulations
and other measures that are already adopted. Future baseline emissions
inventories are necessary to show the projected effectiveness of SIP
control measures. Both the base year and future year inventories are
necessary for photochemical modeling to demonstrate attainment.
2. Summary of State's Submission
The 2016 AQMP includes base year (2012) and future year baseline
inventories for NOX and VOC for the South Coast ozone
nonattainment area. Documentation for the inventories is found in
Chapter 3 (``Base Year and Future Emissions'') and Appendix III (``Base
Year and Future Year Emission Inventory'') of the 2016 AQMP. Because
ozone levels in South Coast are typically higher from May through
October, these
[[Page 28138]]
inventories represent average summer day emissions. The 2012 base year
and future year inventories in the 2016 AQMP reflect District rules
adopted prior to December 2015 and CARB rules adopted by November 2015.
Both base year and projected future year inventories use the current
EPA-approved version of California's mobile source emissions model,
EMFAC2014, for estimating on-road motor vehicle emissions.\51\
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\51\ 80 FR 77337 (December 14, 2015). EMFAC is short for
EMission FACtor. The EPA announced the availability of the EMFAC2014
model for use in state implementation plan development and
transportation conformity in California on December 14, 2015. The
EPA's approval of the EMFAC2014 emissions model for SIP and
conformity purposes was effective on the date of publication of the
notice in the Federal Register.
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VOC and NOX emissions estimates in the 2016 AQMP are
grouped into two general categories, stationary sources and mobile
sources. Stationary sources are further divided into ``point'' and
``area'' sources. Point sources typically refer to permitted facilities
and have one or more identified and fixed pieces of equipment and
emissions points. Area sources consist of widespread and numerous
smaller emission sources, such as small permitted facilities,
households, and road dust. The mobile sources category is divided into
two major subcategories, ``on-road'' and ``off-road'' mobile sources.
On-road mobile sources include light-duty automobiles, light-, medium-,
and heavy-duty trucks, and motorcycles. Off-road mobile sources include
aircraft, locomotives, construction equipment, mobile equipment, and
recreational vehicles.
For the 2016 AQMP, point source emissions for the 2012 base year
emissions inventory are based on reported data from facilities using
the District's annual emissions reporting program, which applies under
District Rule 301 to stationary sources in the South Coast that emit
more than 4 tons per year (tpy) or more of VOC or NOX. Area
sources include smaller emissions sources distributed across the
nonattainment area. CARB and the District estimate emissions for about
400 area source categories using established inventory methods,
including publicly-available emission factors and activity information.
Activity data are derived from national survey data such as the Energy
Information Administration or from local sources such as the Southern
California Gas Company, paint suppliers, and District databases.
Emission factors used for the estimates come from a number of sources
including source tests, compliance reports, and the EPA's compilation
of emissions factor document known as ``AP-42.''
On-road emissions inventories in the 2016 AQMP are calculated using
CARB's EMFAC2014 model and the travel activity data provided by SCAG in
``The 2016-2040 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities
Strategy.'' \52\ CARB provided emissions inventories for off-road
equipment, including construction and mining equipment, industrial and
commercial equipment, lawn and garden equipment, agricultural
equipment, ocean-going vessels, commercial harbor craft, locomotives,
cargo handling equipment, pleasure craft, and recreational vehicles.
CARB uses several models to estimate emissions for more than one
hundred off-road equipment categories.\53\ Aircraft emissions are
developed in conjunction with the airports in the region. For the base
year and future attainment year inventories, marine vessel emissions
out to 100 nautical miles from the coastline are included.
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\52\ See http://scagrtpscs.net/Pages/FINAL2016RTPSCS.aspx.
\53\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix III, page III-1-24.
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Table 1 provides a summary of the District's 2012 base year and
future attainment year baseline emissions estimates in tons per average
summer day for NOX and VOC. These inventories provide the
basis for the control measure analysis and the attainment
demonstrations in the 2016 AQMP. Based on the inventory for 2012,
stationary and area sources currently account for roughly 40 percent of
VOC emissions and 10 percent of the NOX emissions in the
South Coast while mobile sources account for roughly 60 percent of the
VOC emissions and 90 percent of the NOX emissions. For a
more detailed discussion of the inventories, see Appendix III of the
2016 AQMP.
Table 1--South Coast Base Year and Attainment Year Baseline Emissions Inventories
[Summer planning inventory, tpd]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012 2022 2023 2031
Category -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOX VOC NOX VOC NOX VOC NOX VOC
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stationary and Area Sources............................. 65 211 50 220 50 220 50 231
On-Road Mobile Sources.................................. 293 162 117 71 88 68 65 49
Off-Road Mobile Sources................................. 165 126 120 92 117 90 100 81
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total............................................... 522 500 287 383 255 379 214 362
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2016 AQMP, Chapter 3, tables 3-2, 3-4B, 3-4C and 3-4E. The sum of the emissions values may not equal the total shown due to rounding of the
numbers.
Future emissions forecasts in the 2016 AQMP are primarily based on
demographic and economic growth projections provided by SCAG, the
metropolitan planning organization (MPO) for the South Coast, and
control factors developed by the District in reference to the 2012 base
year. Growth factors used to project these baseline inventories are
derived mainly from data obtained from SCAG.\54\
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\54\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix III, page III-2-6.
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3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
We have reviewed the 2012 base year emissions inventory in the 2016
AQMP, and the inventory methodologies used by the District and CARB,
for consistency with CAA requirements and EPA's guidance. First, as
required by EPA regulation, we find that the 2012 inventory includes
estimates for VOC and NOX for a typical ozone season
weekday, and that CARB has provided adequate documentation explaining
how the emissions are calculated. Second, we find that the 2012 base
year emissions inventory in the 2016 AQMP reflects appropriate
emissions models and methodologies, and, therefore, represents a
comprehensive, accurate, and current inventory of actual emissions
during that year in the South Coast nonattainment area. Third, we
[[Page 28139]]
find that selection of year 2012 for the base year emissions inventory
is appropriate because it is consistent with the 2011 RFP baseline year
(from the 2018 SIP Update) because both inventories are derived from a
common set of models and methods. Lastly, although the requirement for
a base year emissions inventory applies to the nonattainment area, we
find that the inclusion of marine emissions out to 100 miles (i.e.,
beyond the nonattainment area boundary, which lies 3 miles offshore) in
the base year inventory to be appropriate given that such emissions
must be accounted for in the ozone attainment demonstrations.
Therefore, the EPA is proposing to approve the 2012 emissions inventory
in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the requirements for a base year inventory
set forth in CAA section 182(a)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1115.
With respect to future year baseline projections, we have reviewed
the growth and control factors and find them acceptable and conclude
that the future baseline emissions projections in the 2016 AQMP reflect
appropriate calculation methods and the latest planning assumptions.
Also, as a general matter, the EPA will approve a SIP revision that
takes emissions reduction credit for a control measure only where the
EPA has approved the measure as part of the SIP. Thus, to take credit
for the emissions reductions from newly-adopted or amended District
rules for stationary sources, the related rules must be approved by the
EPA into the SIP. Table 2 in the technical support document (TSD)
accompanying this rulemaking shows District rules with post-2012
compliance dates that were incorporated in the future year inventories,
along with information on EPA approval of these rules, and shows that
emissions reductions assumed by the 2016 AQMP for future years for
stationary sources are supported by rules approved as part of the SIP.
With respect to mobile sources, the EPA has taken action in recent
years to approve CARB mobile source regulations into the California
SIP.\55\ We therefore find that the future year baseline projections in
the 2016 AQMP are properly supported by SIP-approved stationary and
mobile source measures.\56\
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\55\ See 81 FR 39424 (June 16, 2016), 82 FR 14446 (March 21,
2017), and 83 FR 23232 (May 18, 2018).
\56\ In August 2018, the U.S. Department of Transportation and
the EPA published the proposed ``Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient
(SAFE) Vehicles Rule'' (``SAFE rule'') that, among other things,
proposes to withdraw the EPA's 2013 waiver of preemption for CARB's
Zero Emissions Vehicle (ZEV) mandate and Greenhouse Gas (GHG)
standards that are applicable to new model year 2021 through 2025
light-duty vehicles. See 83 FR 42986 (August 24, 2018) and 78 FR
2112 (January 9, 2013). The baseline emissions projections in the
2016 South Coast Ozone SIP assume implementation of the ZEV mandate
and GHG standards. In its comments on the SAFE proposal, CARB
estimates an emission increase of 1.2 tons per day of NOX
in the South Coast if the SAFE rule is finalized. See ``Analysis in
Support of Comments of the California Air Resources Board on the
Safer Affordable Fuel-Efficient (SAFE) Vehicles Rule for Model Years
2021-2026 Passenger Cars and Light Trucks,'' CARB, October 26, 2018.
At this time, we cannot predict the date of final action on the SAFE
rule, nor can we pre-judge the outcome of the final rule. This
proposed action reflects the emissions projections in the 2016 South
Coast Ozone SIP. If the SAFE rule is finalized prior to our final
rulemaking on the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP, we will evaluate and
address, as appropriate, the impact of the final SAFE rule on our
proposed action.
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B. Emissions Statement
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
Section 182(a)(3)(B)(i) of the Act requires states to submit a SIP
revision requiring owners or operators of stationary sources of VOC or
NOX to provide the state with statements of actual emissions
from such sources. Statements must be submitted at least every year and
must contain a certification that the information contained in the
statement is accurate to the best knowledge of the individual
certifying the statement. Section 182(a)(3)(B)(ii) of the Act allows
states to waive the emissions statement requirement for any class or
category of stationary sources that emit less than 25 tpy of VOC or
NOX, if the state provides an inventory of emissions from
such class or category of sources as part of the base year or periodic
inventories required under CAA sections 182(a)(1) and 182(a)(3)(A),
based on the use of emission factors established by the EPA or other
methods acceptable to the EPA.
The preamble of the 2008 Ozone SRR states that if an area has a
previously approved emissions statement rule for the 1997 ozone NAAQS
or the 1-hour ozone NAAQS that covers all portions of the nonattainment
area for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, such rule should be sufficient for
purposes of the emissions statement requirement for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS.\57\ The state should review the existing rule to ensure it is
adequate and, if so, may rely on it to meet the emission statement
requirement for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. Where an existing emission
statement requirement is still adequate to meet the requirements of
this rule, states can provide the rationale for that determination to
the EPA in a written statement in the SIP to meet this requirement.
States should identify the various requirements and how each is met by
the existing emissions statement program. Where an emissions statement
requirement is modified for any reason, states must provide the
revision to the emissions statement as part of its SIP.
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\57\ See 80 FR 12264, at 12291 (March 6, 2015).
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2. Summary of the State's Submission
The 2016 AQMP addresses compliance with the emissions statement
requirement in CAA section 182(a)(3)(B) for the 2008 ozone NAAQS by
reference to District Rule 301 (``Permitting and Associated Fees'')
that, among other things, requires emissions reporting from all
stationary sources of NOX and VOC greater than or equal to 4
tpy. On May 20, 2019, CARB submitted certain provisions from a public
draft version of District Rule 301 to the EPA for parallel processing.
Once adopted, the District will be forwarding the revised rule to CARB
for adoption and submittal to the EPA as a revision to the California
SIP.
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
For this action, we have evaluated the public draft version of
District Rule 301 (i.e., the relevant portions of the rule--paragraphs
(e)(1)(A) and (B), (e)(2), (e)(5) and (e)(8)), as submitted for
parallel processing on May 20, 2019, for compliance with the specific
requirements for emissions statements under CAA section
182(a)(3)(B).\58\ We find that District Rule 301 (paragraphs (e)(1)(A)
and (B), (e)(2), (e)(5) and (e)(8)) applies within the entire ozone
nonattainment area; applies to all permit holders and to all equipment
operating under permit; and requires reporting, on an annual basis, of
total emissions of various air pollutants, including VOC and
NOX, if emissions of any one pollutant are equal to or
greater than 4 tpy. Also, as required under CAA section 182(a)(3)(B),
District Rule 301 requires certification that the information provided
to the District is accurate to the best knowledge of the individual
certifying the emissions data.
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\58\ District Rule 301 covers a wide array of fees and is over
90 pages long. We are proposing action only on those few sections of
the rule that are relevant to the emissions statement requirement.
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We also note that, while the emissions reporting requirements in
District Rule 301 do not apply to permitted sources of emissions less
than 4 tpy, such an exclusion is allowed under CAA section
182(a)(3)(B)(ii) so long as the state includes estimates of such class
or category of stationary sources in base year emission inventories and
periodic inventories submitted under CAA sections 182(a)(1) and
182(a)(3)(A), based on EPA emission factors or other
[[Page 28140]]
methods acceptable to the EPA. We recognize that emissions inventories
developed by the SCAQMD for the South Coast routinely include actual
emissions estimates for all stationary sources or classes or categories
of such sources, including those emitting less than 4 tpy, and that
such inventories provide the basis for inventories submitted to meet
the requirements of CAA sections 182(a)(1) and 182(a)(3)(A). By
approval of emission inventories as meeting the requirements of CAA
sections 182(a)(1) and 182(a)(3)(A), the EPA is implicitly accepting
the methods and factors used by the SCAQMD to develop those emission
estimates. Our most recent approval of a base year emission inventory
for the South Coast is found at 77 FR 12674 (March 1, 2012) (approval
of base year emission inventory for the 1997 ozone NAAQS). In addition,
we are proposing approval of the base year inventory for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS in this action.
Therefore, for the reasons described in the preceding paragraphs,
we propose to approve the public draft version of District Rule 301
(paragraphs (e)(1)(A) and (B), (e)(2), (e)(5) and (e)(8)) as meeting
the emissions statement requirements under CAA section 182(a)(3)(B). We
will not take final action on District Rule 301 until we receive the
formal SIP submittal package from CARB including the final adopted
version of the relevant portions of the rule.
C. Reasonably Available Control Measures Demonstration and Control
Strategy
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
CAA section 172(c)(1) requires that each attainment plan provide
for the implementation of all RACM as expeditiously as practicable
(including such reductions in emissions from existing sources in the
area as may be obtained through implementation of reasonably available
control technology), and also provide for attainment of the NAAQS. The
2008 Ozone SRR requires that, for each nonattainment area required to
submit an attainment demonstration, the state concurrently submit a SIP
revision demonstrating that it has adopted all RACM necessary to
demonstrate attainment as expeditiously as practicable and to meet any
RFP requirements.\59\
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\59\ 40 CFR 51.1112(c).
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The EPA has previously provided guidance interpreting the RACM
requirement in the General Preamble for the Implementation of the Clean
Air Act Amendments of 1990 and in a memorandum entitled ``Guidance on
the Reasonably Available Control Measure Requirement and Attainment
Demonstration Submissions for Ozone Nonattainment Areas.'' \60\ In
short, to address the requirement to adopt all RACM, states should
consider all potentially reasonable control measures for source
categories in the nonattainment area to determine whether they are
reasonably available for implementation in that area and whether they
would, if implemented individually or collectively, advance the area's
attainment date by one year or more.\61\ Any measures that are
necessary to meet these requirements that are not already either
federally promulgated, or part of the state's SIP, must be submitted in
enforceable form as part of the state's attainment plan for the
area.\62\
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\60\ See General Preamble, 57 FR 13498 at 13560 (April 16, 1992)
and memorandum dated November 30, 1999, from John Seitz, Director,
OAQPS, to Regional Air Directors, titled ``Guidance on the
Reasonably Available Control Measure Requirement and Attainment
Demonstration Submissions for Ozone Nonattainment Areas.''
\61\ Id. See also 44 FR 20372 (April 4, 1979), and memorandum
dated December 14, 2000, from John S. Seitz, Director, OAQPS, to
Regional Air Directors, titled ``Additional Submission on RACM From
States with Severe One-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area SIPs.''
\62\ For ozone nonattainment areas classified as Moderate or
above, CAA section 182(b)(2) also requires implementation of
reasonably available control technology (RACT) for all major sources
of VOC and for each VOC source category for which the EPA has issued
a control techniques guideline. CAA section 182(f) requires that
RACT under section 182(b)(2) also apply to major stationary sources
of NOX. In Extreme areas, a major source is a stationary
source that emits or has the potential to emit at least 10 tpy of
VOC or NOX (see CAA section 182(e) and (f)). Under the
2008 Ozone SRR, states were required to submit SIP revisions meeting
the RACT requirements of CAA sections 182(b)(2) and 182(f) no later
than 24 months after the effective date of designation for the 2008
Ozone NAAQS and to implement the required RACT measures as
expeditiously as practicable but no later than January 1 of the 5th
year after the effective date of designation (see 40 CFR
51.1112(a)). California submitted the CAA section 182 RACT SIP for
the South Coast on July 18, 2014, and the EPA fully approved this
submission at 82 FR 43850 (September 20, 2017).
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2. Summary of the State's Submission
For the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP, the District, CARB, and SCAG
each undertook a process to identify and evaluate potential RACM that
could contribute to expeditious attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in
the South Coast. We describe each agency's efforts below.
a. District's RACM Analysis
The District's RACM demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS focuses
on stationary and area source controls, and it is described in Appendix
VI-A (``Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM)/Best Available
Control Measures (BACM) Demonstration'') of the 2016 AQMP. Appendix VI-
A contains analyses of all potential control measures for emission
reduction opportunities, as well as economic and technological
feasibility.
As a first step in the RACM analysis, the District prepared a
detailed inventory of emissions sources that emit VOC and
NOX to identify source categories from which emissions
reductions would effectively contribute to attainment. Details on the
methodology and development of the emission inventory are discussed in
chapter 3 and appendix III of the 2016 AQMP. A total of 76 source
categories are included in the base year emission inventory, 46
represent stationary and area sources and 30 for mobile sources.\63\
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\63\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix VI-A, Table VI-A-3.
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The District's RACM analysis builds upon a foundation of District
rules developed for earlier ozone plans and approved as part of the
SIP. We provide a list of the District's NOX and VOC rules
approved into the California SIP in Table 1 of our TSD for this
proposed action. The 86 SIP-approved District VOC or NOX
rules listed in Table 1 of our TSD establish emission limits or other
types of emissions controls for a wide range of sources, including use
of solvents, refineries, gasoline storage, architectural coatings,
spray booths, various types of commercial coatings, boilers, steam
generators and process heaters, oil and gas production well, marine
tank vessel operations, and many more. These rules have already
provided significant and ongoing reductions toward attainment of the
2008 ozone NAAQS by 2031.
To demonstrate that the SCAQMD considered all candidate measures
that are available and technologically and economically feasible, the
District conducted a six-step analysis, as described below.
Step 1. 2015 Air Quality Technology Symposium (``2015 Symposium'').
The 2015 Symposium was held on June 10 and 11, 2015, with
participation of technical experts and the public to solicit new and
innovative concepts to assist in attaining the 1997 and 2008 ozone
NAAQS by the applicable attainment dates. The SCAQMD also conducted an
extensive outreach to engage a wide range of stakeholders in the
process.
[[Page 28141]]
Step 2. Reasonably Available Control Technology/Best Available
Control Technology Analysis.\64\
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\64\ BACM, including BACT, is a requirement for certain
PM2.5 nonattainment areas. BACM is not a requirement for
ozone nonattainment areas, but because the District addresses both
PM2.5 and ozone in its 2016 AQMP, the District prepared
an analysis that addresses both RACT and BACT.
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The District's Reasonably Available Control Technology/Best
Available Control Technology (RACT/BACT) analysis found four VOC or
NOX SCAQMD rules (i.e., District Rules 462 (``Organic Liquid
Loading''), 1115 (``Motor Vehicle Assembly Line Coating Operations''),
1118 (``Control of Emissions from Refinery Flares'') and 1138
(``Control of Emissions from Restaurant Operations'')) that are less
stringent than EPA control techniques guidelines or analogous rules in
other air districts. The SCAQMD evaluated the rules as candidate
potential measures.
Step 3. EPA TSDs.
The District researched TSDs from recent EPA rulemakings on South
Coast rules for EPA recommendations on potential control measures. The
TSD for EPA's action on South Coast Rule 1125, ``Metal Container,
Closure, and Coil Coating Operations'' (amended March 7, 2008) was the
only applicable and recent TSD that met the criteria for review.
Step 4. Control measures in other areas.
The District reviewed control measures in other areas (i.e.,
Ventura County, San Francisco Bay Area, San Joaquin Valley, Sacramento
Metropolitan, Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston-Galveston-Brazoria, New
York, and New Jersey) to evaluate whether control technologies
available and cost-effective within other areas would be available and
cost-effective for use in the South Coast.
Step 5. Control Measures beyond RACM in 2012 AQMP.
The District updated the RACM analysis for four control measures
that were determined to be beyond RACM in the analysis for the prior
2012 AQMP, including reconsideration of emission reductions of VOC from
greenwaste composting.
Step 6. EPA Menu of Control Measures.
The Menu of Control Measures (MCM) \65\ compiled by the EPA's
Office of Air Quality Planning and Standards was created to provide
information useful in the development of emission reduction strategies
and to identify and evaluate potential control measures. District staff
reviewed the MCM for point and nonpoint sources of NOX and
VOC.
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\65\ EPA, MCM, http://www3.epa.gov/ttn/naaqs/pdfs/MenuOfControlMeasures.pdf.
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The District provides a comprehensive evaluation of its RACM
control strategy in Appendix VI-A of the 2016 AQMP. The evaluation
includes the following: Description of the sources within the category
or sources subject to the rule; base year and projected baseline year
emissions for the source category affected by the rule; discussion of
the current requirements of the rule; and discussion of potential
additional control measures, including, in many cases, a discussion of
the technological and economic feasibility of the additional control
measures. This includes comparison of each District rule to analogous
control measures adopted by other agencies.
Based on its RACM analysis for stationary and area sources under
its jurisdiction, the District identified the following three
additional RACM with quantifiable VOC and NOX emission
reductions: CMB-02--Emission Reductions from Replacement with Zero or
Near-Zero NOX Appliances in Commercial and Residential
Applications; CMB-03--Emission Reductions from Non-Refinery Flares; and
BCM-10--Emission Reductions from Greenwaste Composting. These three
RACM are included in the District's stationary source measures in Table
4-2 of the 2016 AQMP that the District Board adopted through Resolution
17-2. The District estimates that the three RACM measures, once adopted
and implemented, will reduce VOC emissions by 1.9 tpd by 2022 and 2023
and by 2.2 tpd by 2031, and will reduce NOX emissions by 2.5
tpd by 2022 and 2023 and by 4.3 tpd 2031. See tables 4-9, 4-10 and 4-11
of the 2016 AQMP. As to the few remaining measures that the District
rejected from its RACM analysis, the District determined that these
measures would not collectively advance the attainment date or
contribute to RFP due to the uncertain or non-quantifiable emissions
reductions they would potentially generate.\66\
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\66\ See 2016 AQMP, Appendix VI-A, page VI-A-40, and Attachments
VI-A-1c, VI-A-1d, and VI-A-2.
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Based on its evaluation of all available measures, the District
concludes that the District's existing rules are generally as stringent
as, or more stringent than the analogous rules in other districts.
Further, the District concludes that, based on its comprehensive review
and evaluation of potential candidate measures and the adoption of
commitments to implement the three measures determined to be
technologically and economically feasible, the District meets the RACM
requirement for the 2008 ozone NAAQS for all sources under the
District's jurisdiction.
b. Local Jurisdictions' RACM Analysis and Transportation Control
Measures
Appendix IV-C, Regional Transportation Strategy and Control
Measures, of the 2016 AQMP, contains the transportation control
measures (TCMs) RACM component for the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP.
SCAG, the MPO for the South Coast region, conducted the local
jurisdictions' TCM RACM analysis, which is based on SCAG's Final 2016-
2040 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable Communities Strategy
(2016 RTP/SCS) and 2015 Federal Transportation Improvement Program
(FTIP) as amended. The 2016 RTP/SCS and FTIP were developed in
consultation with federal, state and local transportation and air
quality planning agencies and other stakeholders. The four county
transportation commissions \67\ in the South Coast were involved in the
development of the regional transportation measures in Appendix IV-
C.\68\
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\67\ Los Angeles County Metropolitan Transportation Authority,
Riverside County Transportation Commission, Orange County
Transportation Authority, and the San Bernardino County
Transportation Authority (formerly known as the San Bernardino
Associated Governments).
\68\ Appendix IV-C, page IV-C-1.
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For the TCM RACM analysis, SCAG compared the list of measures
implemented within the South Coast with those implemented in other
ozone and PM2.5 nonattainment areas.\69\ SCAG then organized
measures, including candidate measures and those measures currently
implemented in the region, according to the sixteen categories
specified in section 108(f)(1)(A) of the CAA. SCAG found a small number
of candidate measures that were not currently implemented in the region
and not included in the prior 2012 AQMP TCM RACM analysis. Attachment A
(``Committed Transportation Control Measures (TCMs)'') to Appendix IV-C
of the 2016 AQMP lists the TCM projects that are specifically
identified and committed to in the 2016 AQMP. The complete listing of
all candidate measures evaluated for the RACM determination is included
in Attachment B (``2016 South Coast AQMP Reasonably Available Control
Measures (RACM) Analysis--TCMs'') to
[[Page 28142]]
Appendix IV-C of the 2016 AQMP. Based on its comprehensive review of
TCM projects in other nonattainment areas or otherwise identified, SCAG
determined that the TCMs being implemented in the South Coast are
inclusive of all RACM.\70\
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\69\ The specific nonattainment area SIPs that were reviewed for
candidate TCMs are listed in Table 8 of Appendix IV-C of the 2016
AQMP.
\70\ Appendix IV-C, page IV-C-30.
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c. CARB's RACM Analysis
CARB's RACM analysis is contained in Attachment VI-A-3
(``California Mobile Source Control Program Best Available Control
Measures/Reasonably Available Control Measures Assessment'') (``BACM/
RACM Assessment'') to Appendix VI-A of the 2016 AQMP. CARB's BACM/RACM
assessment provides a general description of CARB's existing mobile
source programs. A more detailed description of CARB's mobile source
control program, including a comprehensive table listing on- and off-
road mobile source regulatory actions taken by CARB since 1985, is
contained in Attachment VI-C-1 to Appendix VI-C of the 2016 AQMP. The
BACM/RACM assessment and 2016 State Strategy collectively contain
CARB's evaluation of mobile source and other statewide control measures
that reduce emissions of NOX and VOC in the South Coast. The
2016 State Strategy includes a commitment consisting of two components:
A commitment to bring to the CARB Board, or otherwise take action on,
certain defined new measures; and a commitment to achieve aggregate
emissions reductions by specific dates.\71\
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\71\ 2016 State Strategy, Chapter 3 (``Proposed SIP
Commitment''), 26.
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Source categories for which CARB has primary responsibility for
reducing emissions in California include most new and existing on- and
off-road engines and vehicles, motor vehicle fuels, and consumer
products. CARB developed its 2016 State Strategy through a multi-step
measure development process, including extensive public consultation,
to develop and evaluate potential strategies for mobile source
categories under CARB's regulatory authority that could contribute to
expeditious attainment of the standard.\72\ Through the process of
developing the 2016 State Strategy, CARB identified certain defined
measures as available to achieve additional VOC and NOX
emissions reductions from sources under CARB jurisdiction, including
tighter requirements for new light- and medium-duty vehicles (referred
to as the ``Advanced Clean Cars 2'' measure), a low-NOX
engine standard for vehicles with new heavy-duty engines, tighter
emissions standards for small off-road engines, and more stringent
requirements for consumer products, among others.\73\ In adopting the
2016 State Strategy, CARB commits to bringing the defined measures to
the CARB Board for action according to the specific schedule included
as part of the strategy.\74\
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\72\ Appendix VI-A, Attachment VI-A-3, page VI-A-102.
\73\ 2016 State Strategy, chapter 4 (``State SIP Measures'').
\74\ CARB Resolution 17-7 (dated March 23, 2017), 7.
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Given the need for substantial emissions reductions from mobile and
area sources to meet the NAAQS in California nonattainment areas, CARB
has been a leader in the development of stringent control measures for
on-road and off-road mobile sources and the fuels that power them.
California has unique authority under CAA section 209 (subject to a
waiver by the EPA) to adopt and implement new emission standards for
many categories of on-road vehicles and engines, and new and in-use
off-road vehicles and engines.
Historically, the EPA has allowed California to take into account
emissions reductions from CARB regulations for which the EPA has issued
waiver or authorizations under CAA section 209, notwithstanding the
fact that these regulations have not been approved as part of the
California SIP. However, in response to the decision by the United
States Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit (``Ninth Circuit'') in
Committee for a Better Arvin v. EPA, the EPA has since approved mobile
source regulations for which waiver authorizations have been issued as
revisions to the California SIP.\75\
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\75\ See, e.g., 81 FR 39424 (June 16, 2016), 82 FR 14447 (March
21, 2017), and 83 FR 8404 (February 27, 2018). See also Committee
for a Better Arvin, 786 F.3d 1169 (9th Cir. 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
CARB's mobile source program extends beyond regulations that are
subject to the waiver or authorization process set forth in CAA section
209 to include standards and other requirements to control emissions
from in-use heavy-duty trucks and buses, gasoline and diesel fuel
specifications, and many other types of mobile sources. Generally,
these regulations have been submitted and approved as revisions to the
California SIP.\76\
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\76\ See, e.g., the EPA's approval of standards and other
requirements to control emissions from in-use heavy-duty diesel-
powered trucks, at 77 FR 20308 (April 4, 2012), revisions to the
California on-road reformulated gasoline and diesel fuel regulations
at 75 FR 26653 (May 12, 2010), and revisions to the California motor
vehicle inspection and maintenance program at 75 FR 38023 (July 1,
2010).
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In the BACM/RACM Assessment, CARB concludes that, in light of the
extensive public process culminating in the 2016 State Strategy, with
the current mobile source program and proposed measures included in the
2016 State Strategy, there are no additional RACM that would advance
attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast. As a result,
CARB concludes that California's mobile source programs fully meet the
RACM requirement.\77\
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\77\ Appendix VI-A, Attachment VI-A-3, page VI-A-106.
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3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
As described above, the District already implements many rules to
reduce VOC and NOX emissions from stationary sources in the
South Coast. For the 2016 AQMP, the District evaluated a range of
potentially available measures and committed to adopt certain
additional measures it found to be reasonably available for
implementation in the South Coast nonattainment area (specifically,
control measures CMB-02, CMB-03 and BCM-10). We find that the process
followed by the District in the 2016 AQMP to identify additional RACM
is generally consistent with the EPA's recommendations in the General
Preamble, that the District's evaluation of potential measures to be
appropriate, and that the District has provided reasoned justifications
for rejection of measures deemed not reasonably available.
With respect to mobile sources, CARB's current program addresses
the full range of mobile sources in the South Coast through regulatory
programs for both new and in-use vehicles. Moreover, we find that the
process conducted by CARB to prepare the 2016 State Strategy was
reasonably designed to identify additional available measures within
CARB's jurisdiction, and that CARB has adopted those measures that are
reasonably available (such as the low-NOX heavy-duty engine
standard, among others). With respect to TCMs, we find that SCAG's
process for identifying additional TCM RACM and conclusion that the
TCMs being implemented in the South Coast (i.e., the TCMs listed in
Attachment A to Appendix IV-C of the 2016 AQMP) are inclusive of all
TCM RACM to be reasonably justified and supported.
Based on our review of these RACM analyses and the District's and
CARB's adopted rules, as well as the District's and CARB's commitments
in the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy, respectively, to adopt and
implement
[[Page 28143]]
additional control measures, we propose to find that there are, at this
time, no additional RACM (including RACT) that would advance attainment
of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast. For the foregoing reasons,
we propose to find that the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP provides for the
implementation of all RACM as required by CAA section 172(c)(1) and 40
CFR 51.1112(c).
D. Attainment Demonstration
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
An attainment demonstration consists of: (1) Technical analyses,
such as base year and future year modeling, to locate and identify
sources of emissions that are contributing to violations of the ozone
NAAQS within the nonattainment area (i.e., analyses related to the
emission inventory for the nonattainment area and the emissions
reductions necessary to attain the standard); (2) a list of adopted
measures (including RACT controls) with schedules for implementation
and other means and techniques necessary and appropriate for
demonstrating RFP and attainment as expeditiously as practicable but no
later than the outside attainment date for the area's classification;
(3) a RACM analysis; and (4) contingency measures required under
sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) of the CAA that can be implemented
without further action by the state or the EPA to cover emissions
shortfalls in RFP plans and failures to attain.\78\ This subsection of
today's proposed rule addresses the first two components of the
attainment demonstration--the technical analyses and a list of adopted
measures. Section III.C (Reasonably Available Control Measures
Demonstration and Control Technology) of this document addresses the
RACM component, and section III.G (Contingency Measures) addresses the
contingency measures component of the attainment demonstration in the
2016 South Coast Ozone SIP.
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\78\ 78 FR 34178, at 34184 (June 6, 2013) (proposed rule for
implementing the 2008 ozone NAAQS).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
With respect to the technical analyses, section 182(c)(2)(A) of the
CAA requires that a plan for an ozone nonattainment area classified
Serious or above include a ``demonstration that the plan . . . will
provide for attainment of the ozone [NAAQS] by the applicable
attainment date. This attainment demonstration must be based on
photochemical grid modeling or any other analytical method determined .
. . to be at least as effective.'' The attainment demonstration
predicts future ambient concentrations for comparison to the NAAQS,
making use of available information on measured concentrations,
meteorology, and current and projected emissions inventories of ozone
precursors, including the effect of control measures in the plan.
Areas classified Extreme for the 2008 ozone NAAQS must demonstrate
attainment as expeditiously as practicable, but no later than 20 years
after the effective date of designation to nonattainment. The South
Coast was designated nonattainment effective July 20, 2012, and the
area must demonstrate attainment of the standards by July 20, 2032.\79\
An attainment demonstration must show attainment of the standards for a
full calendar year before the attainment date, so in practice, Extreme
nonattainment areas must demonstrate attainment in 2031.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\79\ 80 FR 12264.
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The EPA's recommended procedures for modeling ozone as part of an
attainment demonstration are contained in ``Modeling Guidance for
Demonstrating Attainment of Air Quality Goals for Ozone,
PM2.5, and Regional Haze'' (``Modeling Guidance'').\80\ The
Modeling Guidance includes recommendations for a modeling protocol,
model input preparation, model performance evaluation, use of model
output for the numerical NAAQS attainment test, and modeling
documentation. Air quality modeling is performed using meteorology and
emissions from a base year, and the predicted concentrations from this
base case modeling are compared to air quality monitoring data from
that year to evaluate model performance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\80\ Modeling Guidance, December 2014 Draft, EPA OAQPS;
available at https://www.epa.gov/scram/state-implementation-plan-sip-attainment-demonstration-guidance. The 2014 modeling guidance
updates, but is largely consistent with, the earlier ``Guidance on
the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainment of
Air Quality Goals for the 8-Hour Ozone and PM2.5 NAAQS
and Regional Haze,'' EPA-454/B-07-002, April 2007. Additional EPA
modeling guidance can be found in 40 CFR 51 Appendix W, ``Guideline
on Air Quality Models,'' 82 FR 5182 (January 17, 2017); available at
https://www.epa.gov/scram/clean-air-act-permit-modeling-guidance.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Once the model performance is determined to be acceptable, future
year emissions are simulated with the model. The relative (or percent)
change in modeled concentration due to future emissions reductions
provides a Relative Response Factor (RRF). Each monitoring site's RRF
is applied to its monitored base year design value to provide the
future design value for comparison to the NAAQS. The Modeling Guidance
also recommends supplemental air quality analyses, which may be used as
part of a Weight of Evidence (WOE) analysis. A WOE analysis
corroborates the attainment demonstration by considering evidence other
than the main air quality modeling attainment test, such as trends and
additional monitoring and modeling analyses.
The Modeling Guidance also does not require a particular year to be
used as the base year for 8-hour ozone plans.\81\ The Modeling Guidance
states that the most recent year of the National Emissions Inventory
may be appropriate for use as the base year for modeling, but that
other years may be more appropriate when considering meteorology,
transport patterns, exceptional events, or other factors that may vary
from year to year.\82\ Therefore, the base year used for the attainment
demonstration need not be the same year used to meet the requirements
for emissions inventories and RFP.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\81\ Modeling Guidance at section 2.7.1.
\82\ Ibid.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
With respect to the list of adopted measures, CAA section 172(c)(6)
requires that nonattainment area plans include enforceable emission
limitations, and such other control measures, means or techniques
(including economic incentives such as fees, marketable permits, and
auctions of emission rights), as well as schedules and timetables for
compliance, as may be necessary or appropriate to provide for timely
attainment of the NAAQS.\83\ Under the 2008 Ozone SRR, all control
measures needed for attainment must be implemented no later than the
beginning of the attainment year ozone season.\84\ The attainment year
ozone season is defined as the ozone season immediately preceding a
nonattainment area's maximum attainment date.\85\
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\83\ See also CAA section 110(a)(2)(A).
\84\ 40 CFR 51.1108(d).
\85\ 40 CFR 51.1100(h).
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2. Summary of the State's Submission
a. Photochemical Modeling
The 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP updates the photochemical modeling
for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS and the 1997 ozone NAAQS and includes
photochemical modeling for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. The SCAQMD performed
the air quality modeling for the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP. The
modeling relies on a 2012 base year and demonstrates attainment of the
1-hour ozone NAAQS in 2022, the 1997 ozone NAAQS in 2023, and the 2008
ozone NAAQS in 2031.
[[Page 28144]]
As a general matter, the modeling for the 2016 South Coast Ozone
SIP represents an update to the photochemical modeling performed for
the EPA-approved 2012 AQMP to account for more recent satellite-based
input data, improved chemical gaseous and particulate mechanisms,
improved computational resources and post-processing utilities,
enhanced spatial and temporal allocations of the emissions inventory,
and a revised attainment demonstration methodology. The modeling and
modeled attainment demonstration are described in Chapter 5 (``Future
Air Quality'') of the 2016 AQMP and in the 1-Hour Ozone Update.
Appendix V (``Modeling and Attainment Demonstration'') of the 2016 AQMP
provides a description of model input preparation procedures, various
model configuration options, and model performance statistics. The
modeling protocol is in Chapter 2 (``Modeling Protocol'') of Appendix V
of the 2016 AQMP and contains all the elements recommended in the
Modeling Guidance. Those include: Selection of model, time period to
model, modeling domain, and model boundary conditions and
initialization procedures; a discussion of emissions inventory
development and other model input preparation procedures; model
performance evaluation procedures; selection of days; and other details
for calculating RRFs. Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP provides the
coordinates of the modeling domain and thoroughly describes the
development of the modeling emissions inventory, including its chemical
speciation, its spatial and temporal allocation, its temperature
dependence, and quality assurance procedures.
The modeling analysis used version 5.0.2 of the Community
Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) photochemical model, developed by the
EPA. To prepare meteorological input for CMAQ, the Weather and Research
Forecasting model version 3.6 (WRF) from the National Center for
Atmospheric Research was used. CMAQ and WRF are both recognized in the
Modeling Guidance as technically sound, state-of-the-art models. The
areal extent and the horizontal and vertical resolution used in these
models were adequate for modeling South Coast ozone.
The WRF meteorological model results and performance statistics are
described in Chapter 3 (``Meteorological Modeling and Sensitivity
Analyses'') of Appendix V. The District evaluated the performance of
the WRF model through a series of simulations and concluded that the
daily WRF simulation for 2012 provided representative meteorological
fields that well characterized the observed conditions. The District's
conclusions were supported by hourly time series graphs of wind speed,
direction, and temperature for the South Coast included as Attachment 1
(``WRF Model Performance Time Series'') to Appendix V.
Ozone model performance statistics are described in the 2016 AQMP
Appendix V, Chapter 5 (``8-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration'') and
Chapter 8 (``1-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration''), which include
tables of statistics recommended in the Modeling Guidance for 8-hour
and 1-hour daily maximum ozone for the South Coast sub-regions
(including the coastal, San Fernando, foothills, urban source, urban
receptor, and Coachella Valley zones). Hourly time series are presented
as well as density scatter plots, and plots of bias against
concentration. Note that, because only relative changes are used from
the modeling, the underprediction of absolute ozone concentrations does
not mean that future concentrations will be underestimated.
After model performance for the 2012 base case was accepted, the
model was applied to develop RRFs for the attainment demonstration.
This entailed running the model with the same meteorological inputs as
before, but with adjusted emissions inventories to reflect the expected
changes between 2012 and the 2022, 2023, and 2031 attainment years. The
base year or ``reference year'' modeling inventory was the same as the
inventory for the modeling base case. The 2022, 2023, and 2031
inventory projects the base year into the future by including the
effect of economic growth and emissions control measures. The set of
153 days from May 1 through September 30, 2012 was simulated and
analyzed to determine daily 1-hour average and 8-hour average maximum
ozone concentrations for the 2012, 2022, 2023, and 2031 emissions
inventories. To develop the RRFs for the two 8-hour ozone NAAQS, only
the top 10 days were used, consistent with EPA guidance; for the 1-hour
ozone NAAQS, only the top 3 days were used.
The Modeling Guidance addresses attainment demonstrations with
ozone NAAQS based on 8-hour averages but does not address attainment
demonstrations for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS. For the 1997 and 2008 ozone
NAAQS, the 2016 AQMP carried out the attainment test procedure
consistent with the Modeling Guidance. For the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, the
District adapted the procedures from the Modeling Guidance with certain
modifications intended to address the differences between the form of
the 1-hour ozone NAAQS (i.e., expected number of exceedances of the 1-
hour ozone NAAQS) and the form of the 8-hour ozone standards (fourth
highest daily maximum 8-hour average). The RRFs were calculated as the
ratio of future to base year concentrations. The resulting RRFs were
then applied to 2012 weighted base year design values \86\ for each
monitor to arrive at 2022, 2023, and 2031 future year design
values.\87\ The highest 2022 ozone design value is 0.123 ppm at the
Fontana site; this value demonstrates attainment of the 1-hour ozone
NAAQS of 0.12 ppm. For the 1997 ozone NAAQS, the 2023 ozone design
value is 0.084 ppm also at the Fontana site; this value demonstrates
attainment with the corresponding 1997 ozone NAAQS of 0.085 ppm. The
highest 2031 ozone design value is 0.075 ppm also at the Fontana site;
this value demonstrates attainment of the corresponding 2008 ozone
NAAQS of 0.075 ppm.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\86\ The Modeling Guidance recommends that RRFs be applied to
the average of three three-year design values centered on the base
year, in this case the design values for 2010-2012, 2011-2013, and
2012-2014. This amounts to a 5-year weighted average of individual
year 4th high concentrations, centered on the base year of 2012, and
so is referred to as a weighted design value.
\87\ 2016 AQMP, Table 5-2; 1-Hour Ozone Update, Table 4.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 2016 AQMP modeling includes a weight of evidence demonstration,
based on a model performance evaluation of the temporal profile of on-
road mobile source emissions and spatial surrogate profiles of area
emissions.\88\ The 1-Hour Ozone Update includes a weight of evidence
demonstration for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS.\89\ The demonstration is
based on a sensitivity analysis of four scenarios of emission
reductions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\88\ Appendix V of 2016 AQMP, pages V-5-36--V-5-41.
\89\ 1-Hour Ozone Update, 12.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Finally, the 2016 AQMP includes an ``Unmonitored Area Analysis''
for the 8-hour ozone NAAQS to assess the attainment status of locations
other than monitoring sites.\90\ The Modeling Guidance describes a
``gradient adjusted spatial fields'' procedure along with the EPA
software (i.e., Modeled Attainment Test Software) used to carry it
out.\91\ The 2016 AQMP and 1-Hour Ozone Update show concentrations
below the NAAQS for all locations.\92\ This analysis adds assurance to
the attainment demonstrations that all locations in the
[[Page 28145]]
South Coast will attain the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by 2022, the 1997 ozone
NAAQS by 2023, and the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 2031.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\90\ Appendix V of 2016 AQMP, pages V-5-28--V-5-35.
\91\ Modeling Guidance, section 4.7.
\92\ 2016 Ozone Plan, Figure 5-7, and 1-Hour Ozone Update,
Figure 3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
b. Control Strategy for Attainment
The control strategy for attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, the
1997 ozone NAAQS, and the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the 2016 South Coast
Ozone SIP relies on emissions reductions from already-adopted measures,
commitments by the District to certain regulatory and nonregulatory
initiatives and aggregate emission reductions, and commitments by CARB
to certain regulatory and nonregulatory initiatives and aggregate
emission reductions. Generally, the bulk of the emissions reductions on
which the control strategies rely is expected to come from already-
adopted measures, which are discussed in section III.C of this
document. For the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, 1997 ozone NAAQS, and the 2008
ozone NAAQS, already-adopted measures are expected to achieve
approximately 92 percent, 66 percent, and 67 percent of the reductions
needed, respectively, from the 2012 base year to attain the NAAQS in
2022 (1-hour ozone NAAQS), 2023 (1997 ozone NAAQS) and 2031 (2008 ozone
NAAQS). However, because already-adopted measures will not provide for
attainment of the ozone NAAQS, the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP includes
District and CARB commitments to achieve additional emissions
reductions. These commitments are discussed and evaluated in the
paragraphs that follow.
i. District's Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments
The District has primary responsibility in the South Coast for the
regulation of stationary and certain types of area sources. The
District has more limited authority with respect to mobile sources but
is authorized to implement various programs, such as incentive
programs, to reduce emissions from such sources as well. The District
has made various commitments in previous plans as part of the
attainment strategies to achieve the 1-hour ozone NAAQS and the 1997
ozone NAAQS.
Through adoption of the 2016 AQMP, the District is updating its
previously-approved aggregate emissions reduction commitments made as
part of the attainment demonstrations for the 1997 ozone NAAQS (by
2023) in the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP and for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS
(by 2022) in the 2012 AQMP; the District is also adopting aggregate
emissions reduction commitments for the attainment demonstration for
the 2008 ozone NAAQS. The District's commitments in the 2016 AQMP are
similar in concept to those that were made in connection with the
previously approved plans.
More specifically, through adoption of the 2016 AQMP, the District
has committed to develop, adopt, submit, and implement the ozone
measures listed in tables 4-2 (stationary source ozone measures) and 4-
4 (mobile source ozone measures) in Chapter 4 of the 2016 AQMP to meet
or exceed the emissions reduction commitments in tables 4-9 (1-hour
ozone NAAQS), 4-10 (1997 ozone NAAQS) and 4-11 (2008 ozone NAAQS).\93\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\93\ SCAQMD, Resolution 17-2 (March 3, 2017), 9.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In Table 2 below, we show the District's updated aggregate
emissions reduction commitments from the 2016 AQMP with the
corresponding commitments from the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP and the
2012 AQMP. The District's commitments from the 2016 AQMP are, in
concept, the same as the District's commitments that the EPA has
approved as part of the attainment demonstrations in the 2007 South
Coast Ozone SIP and the 2012 AQMP. In short, the District has committed
to develop, adopt, submit and implement the specific measures listed in
tables 4-2 and 4-4 of the 2016 AQMP on the adoption and implementation
schedule set forth in those tables to meet or exceed the aggregate
emissions reductions commitments. However, as with the earlier plans,
the 2016 AQMP provides for a public process through which the District
may substitute measures in tables 4-2 and 4-4 with other measures,
provided that the overall equivalent emissions reductions by the
adoption and implementation dates are maintained and that the
applicable measure in table 4-2 or 4-4 is deemed by the District to be
infeasible.\94\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\94\ 2016 AQMP, pages 4-52--4-55.
Table 2--District Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments
[Summer planning inventory, tpd]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year 2022 Year 2023 Year 2031
Plan -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOX VOC NOX VOC NOX VOC
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2007 South Coast Ozone SIP \a\.......................... -- -- 9.2 19.3 -- --
2012 AQMP \b\........................................... 10.7 5.8 11.0 6.0 -- --
2016 AQMP \c\........................................... 20.6 6.1 23.0 6.4 31.0 9.6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ 2007 AQMP, Table 4-2A, as revised by Appendix F of the 2011 Progress Report--see 77 FR 12674, 12691 (March 1, 2012). Reductions are from the 2002
base year. The double-dash mark (``--'') indicates that no commitment was made for a given year in a given plan.
\b\ SCAQMD, Resolution 12-19 (December 7, 2012), 7-8; Table 4-11 of the 2012 AQMP; and 79 FR 29712, 29720 (May 23, 2014). Reductions are from the 2008
base year. The double-dash mark (``--'') indicates that no commitment was made for a given year in a given plan.
\c\ 2016 AQMP, tables 4-9, 4-10 and 4-11. Reductions are from the 2012 base year.
As noted above, the District expects to meet its emissions
reduction commitments for NOX and VOC by adopting new
control measures and programs and strengthening existing control
measures, as identified in tables 4-2 and 4-4 of the 2016 AQMP. These
new or revised stationary control measures include stationary source
regulatory measures, measures that recognize emissions reductions from
energy and climate change-related programs, voluntary incentive
measures, and other miscellaneous measures. In Table 3 below, we have
combined the District's new stationary and mobile measures listed in
tables 4-2 and 4-4 of the 2016 AQMP into a single table but only list
those measures for which the District provides estimates of associated
emissions reductions. The emissions reductions for individual measures
shown in Table 3 are not intended to be enforceable but are estimates
prepared by the District to show how the District expects at the
present time to achieve the aggregate emissions reductions for 2022,
2023, and 2031. The enforceable components of the District's
commitments are to effectuate the
[[Page 28146]]
measures to which it has committed on the schedule that it has adopted,
and to achieve the aggregate emissions reductions by the given years.
Table 3--District Stationary and Mobile Source Measures
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOX emission reductions VOC emission reductions
(tpd) (tpd)
Number Title Adoption Implementation period -----------------------------------------------------
2022 2023 2031 2022 2023 2031
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CMB-01................................. Transition to Zero 2018 Ongoing................ \a\ 2.2 2.5 6.0 \a\ 1.0 \c\ 1.2 \c\ 2.8
and Near-Zero
Emission
Technologies for
Stationary Sources.
CMB-02................................. Emission Reductions 2018 2020-2031.............. 1.1 1.1 2.8 ....... ....... .......
from Replacement
with Zero or Near-
Zero NOX Appliances
in Commercial and
Residential
Applications.
CMB-03................................. Emission Reductions 2018 2020................... 1.4 1.4 1.5 0.4 \c\ 0.4 \c\ 0.4
from Non-Refinery
Flares.
CMB-04................................. Emission Reductions 2018 2022................... 0.8 0.8 1.6 ....... ....... .......
from Restaurant
Burners and
Residential Cooking.
CMB-05................................. Further NOX 2022 2025................... ....... 0 \b\ 5.0 ....... ....... .......
Reductions from
RECLAIM Assessment.
BCM-10................................. Emission Reductions 2019 2020................... ....... ....... ....... 1.5 1.5 1.8
from Greenwaste
Composting.
FUG-01................................. Improved Leak 2019 2022................... ....... ....... ....... 2.0 2.0 2.0
Detection and Repair.
CTS-01................................. Further Emission 2017/2021 2020-2031.............. ....... ....... ....... 1.0 1.0 2.0
Reductions from
Coatings, Solvents,
Adhesives, and
Sealants.
ECC-02................................. Co-Benefits from 2018 Ongoing................ \a\ 0.3 0.3 1.1 a c 0.1 \c\ 0.1 \c\ 0.3
Existing Residential
and Commercial
Building Energy
Efficiency Measures.
ECC-03................................. Additional 2018 Ongoing................ \a\ 1.0 1.2 2.1 a c 0.2 \c\ 0.2 \c\ 0.3
Enhancements in
Reducing Existing
Residential Building
Energy Use.
-----------------------------------------------------
Stationary Sources Totals.......... ..................... ......... ....................... 6.7 7.3 20.1 6.1 6.4 9.6
MOB-10................................. Extension of the SOON NA Ongoing................ 1.9 1.9 1.9 ....... ....... .......
\d\ Provision for
Construction/
Industrial Equipment.
MOB-11................................. Extended Exchange NA Ongoing................ \a\ 2.5 2.9 1.0 ....... ....... .......
Program.
MOB-14................................. Emission Reductions NA 2016-2024.............. \a\ 9.5 11 7.8 ....... ....... .......
from Incentive
Programs.
-----------------------------------------------------
Mobile Sources Totals.............. ..................... ......... ....................... 13.9 15.8 10.7 ....... ....... .......
-----------------------------------------------------
Stationary and Mobile Sources ..................... ......... ....................... 20.6 23.1 30.8 6.1 6.4 9.6
Totals.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ 86 percent of 2023 reductions planned for the control measures.
\b\ 5 tpd reduction by 2025.
\c\ Corresponding VOC reductions from other measures.
\d\ Surplus Off-Road Opt-In for NOX Program.
The sum of the emissions values may not equal the total shown due to rounding of the numbers.
Source: 2016 AQMP, tables 4-2, 4-4, 4-9, 4-10 and 4-11.
There are several ``Further Deployment of Cleaner Technologies''
measures (also referred to in today's action as ``new technology''
measures) in the 2016 State Strategy that identify the SCAQMD as an
implementing agency, along with CARB and the EPA. CARB indicated that
the implementation of the new technology measures is based on a
combination of incentive funding, development of regulations, and
quantification of emissions reduction benefits from operational
efficiency actions and deployment of autonomous vehicles, connected
vehicles, and intelligent transportation systems. The District has
proposed numerous mobile source measures to further the implementation
of CARB's new technology measures. These include proposals to continue
several existing incentive programs (e.g., the Carl Moyer Memorial Air
Quality Standards Attainment Program, the Surplus Off-Road Opt-In for
NOX Program, and Proposition 1B--Goods Movement Emissions
Reduction Program). In the 2016 AQMP, the District includes 15 mobile
source measures to reduce VOC and NOX emissions. With the
exception of measures MOB-10, 11, and 14, the District has not yet
quantified or assigned future reductions to their mobile source
measures.\95\ Other proposed District stationary and mobile sources
measures \96\ with future reductions not yet quantified include the
following.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\95\ 2016 AQMP, Table 4-4.
\96\ All measures to be implemented by SCAQMD except: ECC-01
(various agencies); FLX-01 (SCAQMD and other parties); MOB-5, MOB-7,
MOB-8, and MOB-9 (SCAQMD and CARB); MOB-6 (CARB, Bureau of
Automotive Repair (BAR), SCAQMD), and MOB-12 (SoCal Regional Rail
Authority).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stationary source measures: ECC-01, Co-Benefit Emission
Reductions from Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Programs, Policies, and
Incentives; FLX-01, Improved Education and Public Outreach; FLX-02,
Stationary Source VOC Incentives; MCS-01, Improved Breakdown Procedures
and Process Re-Design; MCS-02, Application of All Feasible Measures;
and ECC-04, Reduced Ozone Formation and Emission Reductions from Cool
Roof Technology.
Mobiles source measures: EGM-01, Emission Reductions from
New Development and Redevelopment Projects; MOB-01, Emission Reductions
at Commercial Marine Ports; MOB-02, Emission Reductions at Rail Yards
and Intermodal Facilities; MOB-03, Emission Reductions at Warehouse
[[Page 28147]]
Distribution Centers; MOB-04, Emission Reductions at Commercial
Airports; MOB-05, Penetration of Partial Zero-Emission and Zero-
Emission Vehicles; MOB-06, Accelerated Retirement of Older Light-Duty
and Medium-Duty Vehicles; MOB-07, Accelerated Penetration of Partial
Zero-Emission and Zero-Emission Light-Heavy- and Medium-Heavy-Duty
Vehicles; MOB-08, Accelerated Retirement of Older On-Road Heavy-Duty
Vehicles; MOB-09, On-Road Mobile Source Emission Reduction Credit
Generation Program; MOB-12, Further Emission Reductions from Passenger
Locomotives; and MOB-13, Off-Road Mobile Source Emission Reduction
Credit Generation Program.
ii. CARB Aggregate Emissions Reduction Commitments
Source categories for which CARB has primary responsibility for
reducing emissions in California include most new and existing on- and
off-road engines and vehicles, motor vehicle fuels, and consumer
products. CARB's 2016 State Strategy includes a comprehensive set of
measures to achieve emissions reductions needed in the South Coast from
mobile sources and consumer products. The measures in the 2016 State
Strategy identify the regulatory and programmatic approaches necessary
to deploy cleaner technologies and ensure sufficient penetration to
meet the NAAQS deadlines. The measures in the 2016 State Strategy
include technology-forcing engine standards, cleaner burning fuels,
durability requirements and inspection programs to ensure clean in-use
performance, sales requirements for advanced technologies, pilot
programs to identify and advance new technologies, and incentive
programs to accelerate technology deployment.
To be more specific, the 2016 State Strategy includes actions to
increase the penetration of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and zero-
emission vehicles (ZEVs) in the light-duty vehicle sector. For heavy-
duty vehicles, the 2016 State Strategy includes combustion engine
technology that is effectively 90 percent cleaner than current
standards. The 2016 State Strategy also includes targeted introduction
of zero-emission technologies in heavy-duty applications that are
suited to early adoption of ZEV technologies. The 2016 State Strategy
includes a California action to establish new low-NOX
certification requirements, coupled with in-use performance
requirements. The strategy also provides greater certification
flexibility for advanced technologies. The measures could reduce
emissions from today's heavy-duty trucks by up to 90 percent. Because
trucks licensed outside of California account for a large portion of
truck activity in California, the 2016 State Strategy calls for the EPA
to develop a national low-NOX engine standard and cites
formal petitions for such rulemaking that have been submitted by
several California air districts. In response to the petitions, on
November 13, 2018, the EPA announced the Cleaner Trucks Initiative, a
future rulemaking to update NOX standards for highway heavy-
duty trucks and engines.\97\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\97\ See https://www.epa.gov/regulations-emissions-vehicles-and-engines/cleaner-truck-initiative.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 2016 State Strategy includes similar proposed actions for off-
road sources, with a focus on deployment of ZEV technologies in smaller
equipment types such as forklifts and airport ground support equipment.
A low-emission diesel standard builds upon CARB's existing fuels
framework by requiring that low-emission diesel fuels to be used to
achieve greater criteria pollutant reductions. For sources that are
primarily under federal jurisdiction, such as interstate trucks,
locomotives, and ocean-going vessels, the 2016 State Strategy calls for
EPA action to provide the needed emission reductions from these sources
by setting more stringent engine standards. Lastly, the 2016 State
Strategy contains a measure to address VOC emissions from consumer
products, the largest source category of VOCs in California. Chapter 4
(``State SIP Measures'') of the 2016 State Strategy provides a detailed
description of the various measures included in the 2016 State
Strategy, background and regulatory history for the measures, a
description of the specific proposed actions to be taken and timing for
those actions, an estimate of the related emissions reductions, and the
specific SIP commitment by CARB with respect to each of the measures.
Through adoption of the 2016 State Strategy, CARB is updating its
previously-approved aggregate emissions reduction commitments made as
part of the attainment demonstration for the 1997 ozone NAAQS (by 2023)
in the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP, and CARB is adopting aggregate
emissions reduction commitments for the attainment demonstration for
the 2008 ozone NAAQS. CARB's commitments in the 2016 State Strategy are
similar in concept to those that were made in connection with the
previously approved plan.
More specifically, through adoption of the 2016 State Strategy,
CARB has committed to bring to its Board for consideration the list of
measures contained in Attachment A to CARB Resolution 17-7 according to
the schedule set forth in Attachment A, and to achieve aggregate
emissions reductions of 113 tpd of NOX and 50 to 51 tpd of
VOC by 2023, and 111 tpd of NOX and 59 to 60 tpd of VOC by
2031 in the South Coast.\98\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\98\ CARB, Resolution 17-7 (March 23, 2017), 7.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In Table 4, below, we show CARB's updated aggregate emissions
reduction commitments from the 2016 State Strategy with the
corresponding commitments from the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP for the
1997 ozone NAAQS and from the 2012 AQMP for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS.
CARB's commitments from the 2016 State Strategy are, in concept,
similar to CARB's commitments that the EPA has approved as part of the
attainment demonstrations in the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP and 2012
AQMP. As with the earlier plans, the 2016 State Strategy includes
estimates of the emissions reductions from each of the individual new
measures, but CARB's overall commitment is to achieve the total
emission reductions necessary to attain the NAAQS.
Table 4--CARB Aggregate Emission Reduction Commitments
[Summer planning inventory, tpd]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year 2022 Year 2023 Year 2031
Plan -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOX VOC NOX VOC NOX VOC
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2007 South Coast Ozone SIP \a\:
Defined Measures.................................... -- -- 141 54 -- --
New Technology Measures............................. -- -- 241 40 -- --
[[Page 28148]]
2012 AQMP \b\:
Defined Measures.................................... -- -- -- -- -- --
New Technology Measures............................. 150 17 -- -- -- --
2016 South Coast Ozone SIP \c\:
Defined and New Technology Measures................. 0 0 113 50-51 111 59-60
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ 2009 State Strategy Update, 20; also see 76 FR 57872, 57882 (September 16, 2011). Reductions are from the 2002 base year. The double-dash mark (``--
'') indicates that no commitment was made for a given year in a given plan.
\b\ 2012 AQMP, appendix VII, page VII-46; CARB Resolution 13-3 (January 25, 2013); and letter from Richard W. Cory, Executive Officer, CARB, to Jared
Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX, dated May 2, 2014. Reductions are from the 2008 base year. The double-dash mark (``--'') indicates
that no commitment was made for a given year in a given plan.
\c\ 2016 State Strategy, Table 4, and CARB Resolution 17-7 (March 23, 2017). Reductions are from the 2012 base year.
For previous South Coast ozone plans, CARB's aggregate emissions
reduction commitments distinguished between those that were to be
achieved through adoption and implementation of defined measures and
those that were to be achieved through ``new technology'' measures. In
this case, ``new technology'' measures refer to provisions in an ozone
plan for an Extreme area that anticipate development of new control
techniques or improvement of existing control technologies as provided
for in CAA section 182(e)(5). For the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP,
CARB's aggregate emissions reduction commitments include both types of
measures. However, CARB also identifies new technology measures for
which it is requesting approval by the EPA under CAA section 182(e)(5).
Table 5 below divides CARB's estimates of emissions reductions between
new technology measures (i.e., those identified for approval under CAA
section 182(e)(5) by CARB) and the other measures (which we refer to as
``defined measures.'')
Table 5--Estimates of Emissions Reductions From Defined and New Technology Measures in the 2016 State Strategy
[Summer planning inventory, tpd, from 2012 base year emissions]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VOC NOX
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year New technology New technology
Defined measures measures Total Defined measures measures Total
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2023 9-10 41 50-51 5 108 113
2031 21-22 37 59-60 14 97 111
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources: 2016 State Strategy, Table 4. Tonnage values for defined measures determined by subtracting all the new technology measures from the total
emission reduction estimate. The sum of the emissions values may not equal the total shown due to rounding of the numbers.
Table 6 below lists CARB's defined measures and associated
reductions from the 2016 State Strategy. As shown in Table 6, CARB
estimates that the defined measures would reduce emissions of
NOX and VOC by 5 tpd and 9-10 tpd, respectively, by 2023 and
by 14 tpd and 21-22 tpd, respectively, by 2031. Table 6 includes only
those CARB defined measures for which CARB has developed emissions
estimates.\99\ We note that the emissions estimates shown in Table 6
are only estimates and are not binding on CARB under the terms of the
commitments CARB has made for the South Coast as part of the 2016 State
Strategy. Rather, CARB has committed to take certain regulatory and
nonregulatory actions according to the schedule in the 2016 State
Strategy and to achieve aggregate emissions reductions by 2023 and
2031. The reductions from any one measure in Table 6 could be more or
less than the estimates shown.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\99\ The defined measures in the 2016 State Strategy for which
future reductions are not yet quantified include: Lower In-Use
Emission Performance Assessment for on-road light-duty vehicles
(CARB and the California Bureau of Automotive Repair); Medium and
Heavy-Duty GHG Gas Phase 2 (CARB, EPA), Innovative Technology
Certification Flexibility (CARB), and Zero-Emission Airport Shuttle
Buses (CARB) for on-road heavy-duty vehicles; Incentivize Low
Emission Efficient Ship Visits for ocean-going vessels (CARB); Zero-
Emission Off-Road Emission Reduction Assessment (CARB), Zero-
Emission Off-Road Worksite Emission Reduction Assessment (CARB), and
Transport Refrigeration Units Used for Cold Storage for off-road
equipment (CARB).
Table 6--Defined Measures in the 2016 State Strategy
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Implementation NOX emission VOC emission
--------------------------------------- reductions (tpd) reductions (tpd)
Measure Adoption Time -------------------------------------------
frame Agency 2023 2031 2023 2031
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-Road Light-Duty:
Advanced Clean Cars 2............... 2020-2021.................. 2026 CARB...................... - 0.6 - 0.4
[[Page 28149]]
On-Road Heavy-Duty:
Lower In-Use Emission Performance 2017-2020.................. 2018+ CARB...................... NYQ NYQ <0.1 <0.1
Level.
Low-NOX Engine Standard--California 2019....................... 2023 CARB...................... - 5 - -
Action.
Innovative Clean Transit............ 2017....................... 2018 CARB...................... <0.1 0.1 <0.1 <0.1
Last Mile Delivery.................. 2018....................... 2020 CARB...................... <0.1 0.4 <0.1 <0.1
Incentive Funding to Achieve Further ongoing.................... 2016 CARB, SCAQMD.............. 3 3 0.4 0.4
Emission Reductions from On-Road
Heavy Duty Vehicles \a\.
Ocean-Going Vessels:
At-Berth Regulation Amendments...... 2017-2018.................. 2023 CARB...................... 0.3 1 <0.1 <0.1
Off-Road Equipment:
Zero-Emission Off-Road Forklift 2020....................... 2023 CARB...................... - 1 - 0.1
Regulation Phase 1.
Zero-Emission Airport Ground Support 2018....................... 2023 CARB...................... <0.1 <0.1 <0.1 <0.1
Equipment.
Small Off-Road Engines.............. 2018-2020.................. 2022 CARB...................... 0.7 2 7 16
Low-Emission Diesel Requirement..... by 2020.................... 2023 CARB...................... 0.3 1 NYQ NYQ
Consumer Products:
Consumer Products Program........... 2019-2021.................. 2020 + CARB...................... 0 0 1-2 4-5
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Emission Reductions....... 4.......................... 14 9-10...................... 21-22
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ On March 22, 2018, CARB adopted the ``South Coast On-Road Heavy-Duty Vehicle Incentive Measure.'' On April 25, 2019, the EPA proposed to approve the
measure as achieving 1 tpd of NOX reductions in 2023. See 84 FR 17365.
NYQ means not yet quantified. A dash (-) refers to de minimis reductions.
The sum of the emissions values may not equal the total shown due to rounding of the numbers.
Source: 2016 State Strategy, Table 4; Attachment A to CARB Resolution 17-7 (March 23, 2017).
As noted above, the 2016 State Strategy identifies certain new
technology measures for which CARB is requesting approval by the EPA
under the provisions of section 182(e)(5) of the CAA. The 2016 AQMP
does not rely on the new technology measures in the 2016 State Strategy
to demonstrate RFP, but it does rely on them for attainment of the 1997
and 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast by the applicable attainment
dates.
Table 7 below lists CARB's new technology measures and associated
reductions from the 2016 State Strategy. As shown in Table 7, CARB
estimates that the new technology measures would reduce emissions of
NOX and VOC by 108 tpd and 41 tpd by 2023, and 97 tpd and 37
tpd by 2031, respectively. As noted above in connection with CARB's
defined measures, the emissions estimates shown in Table 7 are only
estimates and are not binding on CARB under the terms of the
commitments CARB has made for the South Coast as part of the 2016 State
Strategy. Rather, CARB has committed to take certain regulatory and
nonregulatory actions according to the schedule in the 2016 State
Strategy and to achieve aggregate emissions reductions by 2023 and
2031. CARB's aggregate emissions reduction commitments for years 2023
and 2031 do not distinguish between the defined measures and the new
technology measures. The new technology measures in the 2016 State
Strategy are accompanied by an enforceable commitment by CARB to
develop, adopt and submit contingency measures by 2028 for the 2008
ozone NAAQS if the new technology measures do not achieve planned
reductions, as required under CAA section 182(e)(5).\100\ CARB's
commitment to submit contingency measures for section 182(e)(5)
purposes thus relates to attainment for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. With
respect to attainment for the 1997 ozone NAAQS, CARB is relying on the
previously-submitted and approved commitment to submit contingency
measures for section 182(e)(5) purposes from the 2007 South Coast Ozone
SIP.\101\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\100\ CARB Resolution 17-8, 9.
\101\ See 76 FR 57872, 57882 (September 16, 2011) referencing
CARB Resolution 11-22, July 21, 2011), and in a letter dated
November 18, 2011, from James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB,
to Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX.
Table 7--New Technology Measures in 2016 State Strategy \a\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Implementation NOX emission VOC emission
--------------------------------------- reductions (tpd) reductions (tpd)
Title Adoption Time -------------------------------------------
frame Agency 2023 2031 2023 2031
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On-Road Light-Duty:
Further Deployment of Cleaner ongoing.................... 2016 CARB, SCAQMD, EPA......... 7 5 16 16
Technologies \b\.
On-Road Heavy-Duty:
Low-NOX Engine Standard--Federal 2019....................... 2024 EPA....................... - 7 - -
Action.
Further Deployment of Cleaner ongoing.................... 2016 CARB, SCAQMD, EPA......... 34 11 4 1
Technologies.
Aircraft:
Further Deployment of Cleaner ongoing.................... 2016 CARB, SCAQMD, EPA......... 9 13 NYQ NYQ
Technologies.
Locomotives:
More Stringent National Locomotive 2017....................... 2023 EPA....................... < 0.1 2 < 0.1 < 0.1
Emission Standards.
Further Deployment of Cleaner ongoing.................... 2016 CARB, SCAQMD, EPA......... 7 3 0.3 0.3
Technologies.
Ocean-Going Vessels:
Tier 4 Vessel Standards............. 2016-2018.................. 2025 CARB, IMO................. - NYQ - NYQ
[[Page 28150]]
Further Deployment of Cleaner ongoing.................... 2016 CARB, SCAQMD, EPA......... 30 38 NYQ NYQ
Technologies.
Off-Road Equipment:
Further Deployment of Cleaner ongoing.................... 2016 CARB, SCAQMD, EPA......... 21 18 21 20
Technologies.
-------------------------------------------
Total Emission Reductions....... -.......................... - -......................... 108 97 41 37
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes:
\a\ CARB requested the EPA approve these measures under the provisions of section 182(e)(5) of the CAA.
\b\ In today's action we also refer to these as new technology measures.
NYQ means not yet quantified. A dash (-) refers to de minimis reductions.
The sum of the emissions values may not equal the total shown due to rounding of the numbers.
Source: 2016 State Strategy, Table 4; Attachment A to CARB Resolution 17-7 (March 23, 2017).
In its 2016 State Strategy, CARB commits to achieving the aggregate
emissions reductions needed in the South Coast for attaining the 1997
and 2008 ozone NAAQS from the defined and new technology measures. Even
though the District does not have a new technology emissions reduction
commitment in the 2016 AQMP, its numerous incentive programs in tables
4-2 and 4-4 of the 2016 AQMP will help advance new control technologies
that will achieve long-term reductions and ultimately reduce CARB's
remaining commitment for reductions in 2023 and 2031.
SCAQMD's Technology Advancement Office (TAO) is responsible for
expediting the development, demonstration and commercialization of
cleaner technologies and clean-burning fuels in the South Coast. TAO's
mobile source projects have included development and demonstration of
less-polluting automobiles, buses, trucks, construction equipment,
boats, locomotives and other off-road vehicles involving advancements
in engine design, improved batteries, fuel cells, and improved
powertrains for electric vehicles. Other projects involve adapting or
designing vehicles to run on clean fuels and developing the
infrastructure needed to produce and deliver those fuels.\102\ TAO's
projects for stationary sources have included a wide array of low-
NOX combustion systems, low-VOC coatings and processes, and
clean energy production systems including fuel cells, solar power, and
other renewable energy systems.\103\ The technical areas currently
identified by TAO as the highest priority include fuel cells for
transportation and power generation; diesel alternatives; electric and
hybrid-electric technologies; off-road applications of alternative fuel
technologies; VOC reduction technologies for stationary sources; and
infrastructure development.\104\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\102\ SCAQMD technology advancement web page at http://yourstory.aqmd.gov/home/technology, February 6, 2019.
\103\ Id.
\104\ Id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In its 2016 State Strategy, CARB builds on and updates the new
technology measures in prior state strategies (e.g., the 2007 State
Strategy as revised in 2009 and 2011). To implement the long-term
strategy, CARB has committed to a process that will help ensure that
the long-term measures are adopted and that reductions are achieved by
the beginning of the last full ozone season before the attainment date.
CARB is coordinating a government, private, and public effort to
establish emission goals for critical mobile and stationary emission
source categories. The effort includes periodic assessment of
technology advancement opportunities and updates to its Board and the
public regarding new emission control opportunities and progress in
achieving the long-term measure reductions. CARB's commitment for
implementing the long-term strategy also includes reporting back to its
Board within one year of adoption of the 2016 State Strategy, and
yearly thereafter.\105\ This report will include:
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\105\ 2016 State Strategy, 46.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
1. The status of partnerships with the South Coast, San Joaquin
Valley, the EPA, other government agencies, and the private sector to
pursue research, demonstration, and pilot projects for further
advancement of zero and near-zero emission technologies;
2. The status of the Financial Incentives Funding Action Plan,
progress in identifying and implementing funding mechanisms, and status
of State level incentive programs and allocation of funding to the
South Coast and San Joaquin Valley regions;
3. The status of technology assessments, emerging technologies and
emissions reduction opportunities. CARB staff will also report on
implementation of actions identified by the SCAQMD and San Joaquin
Valley Air Pollution Control District as well as actions contained in
the California Sustainable Freight Action Plan, the 2030 Target Scoping
Plan Update, SB 375, and other complementary efforts and the criteria
pollutant benefits that result from these actions; and
4. Recommendations on the development of further regulatory
measures and schedules for development for inclusion in the SIP.\106\
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\106\ E.g., On March 22, 2018, CARB staff conducted a public
meeting to brief the Board on substantial progress made in
implementing various elements of the 2016 State Strategy and 2016
AQMP. The staff presentation can be viewed at https://www.arb.ca.gov/board/books/2018/032218/18-2-5pres.pdf?utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Approximately 70 percent of the reductions needed to meet the ozone
standard in the South Coast in 2031 comes from existing or proposed
regulatory actions. This includes ongoing implementation of the
existing control program, combined with new regulatory measures
identified in the 2016 State Strategy. The regulatory approach forms
the core of the strategy. The remaining 30 percent of reductions is
from additional efforts to enhance the deployment of cleaner
technologies through new incentive or new regulatory actions. These
actions will be implemented through the cleaner technologies measures
for each mobile sector to provide further emissions reductions from the
deployment of technologies necessary to meet the South Coast's Extreme
ozone nonattainment area needs. The approaches contained in the cleaner
technology measures include:
Incentive programs to further accelerate technology
penetration;
Identification of additional regulatory approaches based
on further technology assessments;
Increased efficiency in moving people and freight;
[[Page 28151]]
Use of emerging transportation technologies, such as
intelligent transportation systems and autonomous and connected
vehicles; and
Further federal actions, including support for
demonstration programs, and supporting policies to achieve reductions
from sources under federal and international regulatory authority.
The specific combination of approaches to achieve reductions under
these cleaner technologies concepts will vary by source sector and the
timing of needed reductions. Further details regarding the approach for
each sector and identification of technologies are available in the
measure descriptions in Chapter 4 (``State SIP Measures'') of the 2016
State Strategy.
To achieve the emission reductions from the cleaner technology
measures included in the 2016 State Strategy, the South Coast is also
identifying mechanisms under its local authority to achieve emission
reductions from mobile sources within the region. Given the need for
emissions reductions, significant investments to support incentive
programs will be critical to accelerate the penetration of the cleanest
technologies in the South Coast. CARB staff has been working with
SCAQMD and the EPA to identify funding strategies and ensure
appropriate mechanisms are in place for an approvable SIP.
c. Attainment Demonstration
The 2016 AQMP includes a new attainment demonstration for the 2008
ozone NAAQS and updated attainment demonstrations for the 1-hour and
1997 ozone NAAQS. In December 2018, CARB submitted the 1-Hour Ozone
Update, which revises the 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration in the
2016 AQMP. Each of the attainment demonstrations includes enforceable
commitments for additional reductions necessary for attainment as
discussed in the previous sections. To determine the additional
NOX reductions needed, the State and District evaluated
scenarios for a controlled emissions level of NOX necessary
for attainment of the ozone standards. The ``controlled emissions
level'' represents, based on modeling scenarios and implementation of
adequate control measures, the remaining attainment year NOX
inventory consistent with the modeling used to demonstrate attainment.
Table 8 below summarizes the controlled emissions level of
NOX selected by the District and CARB as necessary for
attainment of the ozone standards.
Table 8--NOX Controlled Emissions Level for Ozone Attainment
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Attainment year 2022 2023 2031
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Standard.......................... 1-hour Ozone............ 1997 Ozone.............. 2008 Ozone.
Controlled Emissions Level (tpd).. 269..................... 141..................... 96.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
i. Updated Attainment Demonstration for the 1-Hour Ozone NAAQS
The 2016 AQMP updates the EPA-approved 1-hour ozone attainment
demonstration from the 2012 AQMP to reflect updated emissions
inventories, photochemical models and modeling techniques. In December
2018, CARB submitted to the EPA the 1-Hour Ozone Update, which revises
the 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration in the 2016 AQMP to account
for updated emissions inventories that were not available at the time
the 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration was completed for the 2016
AQMP.
Table 9 below summarizes the updated attainment demonstration for
the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by listing the base year (2012) emissions level,
the modeled attainment emissions level, and the reductions that the
District has committed to achieve through adoption of the 2016 AQMP.
The updated 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration does not rely on
emissions reductions from the 2016 State Strategy. Also, unlike the
approved 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration from the 2012 AQMP, the
updated attainment demonstration does not rely on new technology
measures.
As shown in Table 9, the majority of emission reductions needed for
attaining the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by 2022 comes from baseline measures.
These account for approximately 92 percent of the NOX (233
tpd) and 95 percent of the VOC (113 tpd) reductions needed for
attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS. The baseline measures reflect
CARB rules adopted by November 2015 and District rules adopted by
December 2015.\107\ Based on the modeling analysis in the 1-Hour Ozone
Update, the District determined that additional reductions of 21 tpd of
NOX and 6 tpd of VOC would be sufficient for demonstrating
attainment of the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by 2022. The 2016 South Coast
Ozone SIP relies on the District's enforceable commitments to achieve
aggregate emissions reductions through implementation of the measures
described above in section III.D.2.b.i of this document to provide the
reductions necessary to achieve the 1-hour ozone NAAQS by 2022.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\107\ See the TSD for this proposed action for a list of
District rules with post-2012 compliance dates affecting future
baseline emissions projections. Also see 2016 AQMP, Appendix VI-C,
Attachment VI-C-1 for a list of CARB rules adopted post-2012.
Table 9--Summary of 1-Hour Ozone NAAQS Attainment Demonstration
[Summer planning inventory, tpd]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOX VOC \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
A. 2012 Base Year Emissions Level \b\... 522.5 499.7
B. 2022 Attainment Year Baseline 286.8 382.7
Emissions Level \c\....................
C. Set-Aside (Phase-Out of Toxics, 3.1 4.5
General Conformity, SIP Reserve) \c\...
D. 2022 Adjusted Baseline (i.e., 289.9 387.2
includes Set-Aside) (B + C)............
E. 2022 Modeled Attainment Emissions 269.3 381.2
Level \c\..............................
F. Total Reductions Needed from 2012 253.2 118.5
Base Year Levels to Demonstrate
Attainment (A-E).......................
G. Reductions from Baseline (i.e., 232.6 112.5
adopted) Measures, as adjusted to
account for Set-Aside (A-D)............
H. Reductions from District's Aggregate 21.0 6.1
Emission Reduction Commitments from
2016 AQMP \d\..........................
I. Reductions from CARB's Aggregate 0 0
Emission Reduction Commitments from
2016 State Strategy--Defined Measures..
[[Page 28152]]
J. Reductions from CARB's Aggregate 0 0
Emission Reduction Commitments from
2016 State Strategy--New Technology
Measures...............................
K. Total Reductions from District and 21.0 6.1
CARB Commitments in 2016 AQMP and 2016
State Strategy (H + I + J).............
L. Total Reductions from Baseline 253.6 118.6
Measures plus District and CARB
Commitments in 2016 AQMP and 2016 State
Strategy (G + K).......................
M. 2022 Emissions with Reductions from 268.9 381.1
Control Strategy (A-L).................
-------------------------------
Attainment demonstrated?................ Yes
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes and sources:
\a\ While attainment of the 8-hour ozone NAAQS in the South Coast is
dependent almost exclusively on NOX reductions, both NOX and VOC
emissions reductions reduce 1-hour ozone levels.
\b\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix III, Attachment B.
\c\ 1-Hour Ozone Update, 7.
\d\ 2016 AQMP, Table 4-9.
ii. Updated Attainment Demonstration for the 1997 Ozone NAAQS
In the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy, the District and State
collectively update the attainment demonstration for the 1997 ozone
NAAQS. The 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy update the EPA-approved
1997 ozone NAAQS ozone attainment demonstration from the 2007 South
Coast Ozone SIP to reflect updated emissions inventories, photochemical
models and modeling techniques. Table 10 below summarizes the updated
attainment demonstration for the 1997 ozone NAAQS by listing the base
year (2012) emissions level, the modeled attainment emissions level,
and the reductions that the District and CARB have committed to achieve
through adoption of the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy.
As shown in Table 10, the majority of emission reductions needed
for attaining the 1997 ozone NAAQS by 2023 comes from baseline
measures. These account for approximately 66 percent of the
NOX (251 tpd) reductions needed for attainment of the 1997
ozone NAAQS. The 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP relies on the District's
and CARB's enforceable commitments to achieve aggregate emission
reductions through implementation of the measures described above in
section III.D.2.b.i and III.D.2.b.ii of this document to provide the
reductions (beyond those from baseline measures) that are necessary to
achieve the 1997 ozone NAAQS by 2023.
Table 10--Summary of 1997 Ozone NAAQS Attainment Demonstration
[Summer planning inventory, tpd]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOX \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
A. 2012 Base Year Emissions Level \b\................... 522
B. 2023 Attainment Year Baseline Emissions Level \b\.... 269
C. Set-Aside (Phase-Out of Toxics, General Conformity, 3
SIP Reserve) \c\.......................................
D. 2023 Adjusted Baseline (i.e., includes Set-Aside) (B 272
+ C)...................................................
E. 2023 Modeled Attainment Emissions Level \d\.......... 141
F. Total Reductions Needed from 2012 Base Year Levels to 381
Demonstrate Attainment (A-E)...........................
G. Reductions from Baseline (i.e., adopted) Measures, as 250
adjusted to account for Set-Aside (A-D)................
H. Reductions from District's Aggregate Emission 23
Reduction Commitments from 2016 AQMP \e\...............
I. Reductions from CARB's Aggregate Emission Reduction 5
Commitments from 2016 State Strategy--Defined Measures
\f\....................................................
J. Reductions from CARB's Aggregate Emission Reduction 108
Commitments from 2016 State Strategy--New Technology
Measures \f\...........................................
K. Total Reductions from District and CARB Commitments 136
in 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy (H + I + J).......
L. Total Reductions from Baseline Measures plus District 386
and CARB Commitments in 2016 AQMP and 2016 State
Strategy (G + K).......................................
M. 2023 Emissions with Reductions from Control Strategy 136
(A-L)..................................................
Attainment demonstrated?................................ Yes
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes and sources:
\a\ VOC emissions are not included in this table because attainment of
the 8-hour ozone NAAQS in the South Coast is dependent almost
exclusively on NOX reductions.
\b\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix III, Attachment B; Year 2023 baseline estimates
for aircraft, oceangoing vessels, and commercial harbor craft have
been updated based on information contained in the 2018 SIP Update,
page A-35.
\c\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix III, pages II-2-90 through III-2-92.
\d\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix V, page V-4-2.
\e\ 2016 AQMP, Table 4-10.
\f\ 2016 State Strategy, Table 4; CARB's aggregate emission reduction
commitment is for 113 tpd of NOX reductions by 2023; for analytical
purposes only, we have distinguished the estimated emissions
reductions for defined measures from those for new technology
measures.
iii. Attainment Demonstration for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS
In the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy, the District and State
collectively demonstrate attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS. Table 11
below summarizes the attainment demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS
by listing the base year (2012) emissions level, the modeled attainment
emissions level, and the reductions that the District and CARB have
committed
[[Page 28153]]
to achieve through adoption of the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy.
As shown in Table 11, the majority of emission reductions needed
for attaining the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 2031 comes from baseline
measures. These account for approximately 66 percent of the
NOX (283 tpd) reductions needed for attainment of the 2008
ozone NAAQS. The 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP relies on the District's
and CARB's enforceable commitments to achieve aggregate emission
reductions through implementation of the measures described above in
section III.D.2.b.i and III.D.2.b.ii of this document to provide the
reductions (beyond those from baseline measures) that are necessary to
achieve the 2008 ozone NAAQS by 2031.
Table 11--Summary of 2008 Ozone NAAQS Attainment Demonstration
[Summer planning inventory, tpd]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
NOX \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
A. 2012 Base Year Emissions Level \b\................... 522
B. 2031 Attainment Year Baseline Emissions Level \b\.... 238
C. Set-Aside (Phase-Out of Toxics, General Conformity, 1
SIP Reserve) \c\.......................................
D. 2031 Adjusted Baseline (i.e., includes Set-Aside) (B 239
+ C)...................................................
E. 2031 Modeled Attainment Emissions Level \d\.......... 96
F. Total Reductions Needed from 2012 Base Year Levels to 426
Demonstrate Attainment (A-E)...........................
G. Reductions from Baseline (i.e., adopted) Measures, as 283
adjusted to account for Set-Aside (A-D)................
H. Reductions from District's Aggregate Emission 31
Reduction Commitments from 2016 AQMP \e\...............
I. Reductions from CARB's Aggregate Emission Reduction 14
Commitments from 2016 State Strategy--Defined Measures
\f\....................................................
J. Reductions from CARB's Aggregate Emission Reduction 97
Commitments from 2016 State Strategy--New Technology
Measures \f\...........................................
K. Total Reductions from District and CARB Commitments 142
in 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy (H + I + J).......
L. Total Reductions from Baseline Measures plus District 425
and CARB Commitments in 2016 AQMP and 2016 State
Strategy (G + K).......................................
M. 2031 Emissions with Reductions from Control Strategy 97
(A-L)..................................................
Attainment demonstrated?................................ Yes
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes and sources:
\a\ VOC emissions are not included in this table because attainment of
the 8-hour ozone NAAQS in the South Coast is dependent almost
exclusively on NOX reductions.
\b\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix III, Attachment B; Year 2031 baseline estimates
for aircraft, oceangoing vessels, and commercial harbor craft have
been updated based on information contained in the 2018 SIP Update,
page A-35.
\c\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix III, pages II-2-90 through III-2-92.
\d\ 2016 AQMP, Appendix V, page V-4-2.
\e\ 2016 AQMP, Table 4-11.
\f\ 2016 State Strategy, Table 4; CARB's aggregate emission reduction
commitment is for 111 tpd of NOX reductions by 2031; for analytical
purposes only, we have distinguished the estimated emissions
reductions for defined measures from those for new technology
measures.
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
a. Photochemical Modeling
To approve a SIP's attainment demonstration, the EPA must make
several findings. First, we must find that the demonstration's
technical bases, including the emissions inventories and air quality
modeling, are adequate. As discussed above in section III.A of this
action, we are proposing to approve the base year emissions inventory
and to find that the future year emissions projections in the 2016 AQMP
reflect appropriate calculation methods and that the latest planning
assumptions are properly supported by SIP-approved stationary and
mobile source measures.
With respect to the photochemical modeling in the 2016 AQMP and 1-
Hour Ozone Update, based on our review of appendix V of the 2016 AQMP
and the 1-Hour Ozone Update, the EPA finds that the modeling is
adequate for purposes of supporting the attainment demonstration.\108\
First, we note the extensive discussion of modeling procedures, tests,
and performance analyses called for in the Modeling Protocol (i.e.,
chapter 2 of Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP) and the good model
performance. Second, we find the WRF meteorological model results and
performance statistics including hourly time series graphs of wind
speed, direction, and temperature for the South Coast, to be
satisfactory and consistent with our Modeling Guidance.\109\
Performance was evaluated for each month in each zone for the entire
year of 2012.\110\ Diurnal variation of temperature, humidity and
surface wind are well represented by WRF. Geographically, winds are
predicted most accurately at the inland urban receptor sites. Accurate
wind predictions in this region of elevated ozone concentrations is one
of the most critical factors to simulate chemical transport. Overall,
the daily WRF simulation for 2012 provided representative
meteorological fields that characterized the observed conditions well.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\108\ The EPA's review of the modeling and attainment
demonstration is discussed in greater detail in section V. Modeling
and Attainment Demonstration of the TSD.
\109\ Modeling Guidance, 30.
\110\ Temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and wind speed were
evaluated in terms of normalized gross bias and normalized gross
error.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The model performance statistics for ozone are described in
chapters 5 and 8 of Appendix V and are based on the statistical
evaluation recommended in the Modeling Guidance. Model performance was
provided for 8-hour and 1-hour daily maximum ozone for each of the
South Coast sub-regions.\111\ The model performance varied by zone,
with over-prediction in the ``Coastal zone'' and under-prediction in
the ``San Fernando,'' and ``Foothills'' zones. The model ozone
predictions in the ``Urban Receptor'' zone, where the design site
station is located, agree reasonably well with the measurements.\112\
The 2016
[[Page 28154]]
AQMP also presents ozone frequency distributions, scatter plots, and
plots of bias against concentration. The scatter and density scatter
plots show low bias at high concentrations, and higher bias at low
concentrations. The modeling guidance requires the use of only the top
10 days in the RRF calculation, indicating that the modeling capability
to predict high concentrations is more important than the prediction of
low concentrations. The supplemental hourly time series show generally
good performance, though many individual daily ozone peaks are
underpredicted. Note that, because only relative changes are used from
the modeling, the underprediction of absolute ozone concentrations does
not mean that future concentrations will be underestimated. The 2016
AQMP's unmonitored area analysis showed concentrations below 1997 and
2008 ozone NAAQS for all locations.\113\ This analysis adds assurance
to the attainment demonstrations that all locations in the South Coast
will attain the 1997 ozone NAAQS by 2023 and the 2008 ozone NAAQS by
2031. In addition, the weight of evidence analyses presented in the
2016 AQMP and 1-Hour Update provide additional information with respect
to the sensitivity to emission changes and improve the understanding of
the model performance. We are proposing to find the air quality
modeling adequate to support the updated attainment demonstrations for
the 1-hour ozone and 1997 ozone NAAQS and the attainment demonstration
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, based on reasonable meteorological and ozone
modeling performance, supported by the unmonitored area and weight of
evidence analyses.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\111\ These zones are represented by the following ozone
monitoring sites: ``Coastal''(Costa Mesa, LAX, Long Beach, Mission
Viejo, West Los Angeles); ``Urban Source''(Anaheim, Central Los
Angeles, Compton, La Habra, Pico Rivera, Pomona) ''San
Fernando''(Reseda, Santa Clarita, Burbank); ``Foothills''(Azusa,
Glendora, Pasadena); and ``Urban Receptor''(Crestline, Fontana, Lake
Elsinore, Mira Loma, Redlands, Rubidoux, San Bernardino, Upland).
\112\ Table V-5-7; 2012 Base Year 8-Hour Average Ozone
Performance for Days When Regional 8-Hour Maximum >= 60 parts per
billion in the ``Urban Receptor'' region. Appendix V of the 2016
AQMP, page V-5-13.
\113\ Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP, Unmonitored Area Analysis, V-
5-28 to V-5-35. Spatial projections of the 8-hour and 1-hour design
values were also provided. See Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP, Spatial
Projections of 8-Hour Ozone Design Values, pages V-5-25 to V-5-28,
and 1-Hour Ozone Update, Spatial Projections of 1-Hour Ozone Design
Values, p. 10-11.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
b. Control Strategy for Attainment
Second, we must find that the emissions reductions that are relied
on for attainment are creditable and are sufficient to provide for
attainment. As shown in tables 9, 10, and 11 above, the 2016 South
Coast Ozone SIP relies on adopted measures to achieve a significant
portion of the emissions reductions needed to attain the 1-hour ozone
NAAQS by 2022, the 1997 ozone NAAQS by 2023, and the 2008 ozone NAAQS
by 2031. The balance of the reductions needed for attainment is in the
form of enforceable commitments to take certain specific regulatory and
nonregulatory actions within prescribed periods and to achieve
aggregate tonnage reductions of VOC or NOX by specific years
in the South Coast. The enforceable commitments made by the District
and CARB through adoption of the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy are
similar to the enforceable commitments that the EPA has approved as
part of attainment demonstrations in previous California air quality
plans and that have withstood legal challenge.\114\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\114\ See Committee for a Better Arvin v. EPA, 786 F.3d 1169
(9th Cir. 2015) (approval of state commitments to propose and adopt
emissions control measures and to achieve aggregate emissions
reductions for San Joaquin Valley ozone and particulate matter plans
upheld); Physicians for Social Responsibility--Los Angeles v. EPA,
9th Cir., memorandum opinion issued July 25, 2016 (approval of air
district commitments to propose and adopt measures and to achieve
aggregate emissions reductions for South Coast 1-hour ozone plan
upheld).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As noted in the preceding paragraph the EPA has previously accepted
enforceable commitments in lieu of adopted control measures in
attainment demonstrations when the circumstances warrant them and when
the commitments meet specific criteria. We believe that, with respect
to all three ozone NAAQS, circumstances warrant the consideration of
enforceable commitments as part of the attainment demonstrations for
the South Coast. First, as shown in tables 9, 10 and 11 above, a
substantial portion of the emission reductions needed to demonstrate
attainment in the South Coast come from measures adopted prior to
adoption and submittal of the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy. As a
result of these State and District efforts, most emissions sources in
the South Coast are currently subject to stringent emission limitations
and other requirements, leaving few opportunities to further reduce
emissions. In the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy, the District and
CARB identified potential control measures that could provide many of
the additional emissions reductions needed for attainment. These are
described above in sections III.D.2.b.i and III.D.2.b.ii of this
action. However, the timeline needed to develop, adopt, and implement
these measures went beyond the required submittal date for the
attainment demonstration for the South Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
These circumstances warrant the District's and CARB's reliance on
enforceable commitments as part of the attainment demonstrations for
the 1-hour, 1997, and 2008 ozone NAAQS.
Given the State's demonstrated need for reliance on enforceable
commitments, we now consider the three factors the EPA uses to
determine whether the use of enforceable commitments in lieu of adopted
measures to meet CAA planning requirements is approvable: (a) Does the
commitment address a limited portion of the statutorily-required
program; (b) is the state capable of fulfilling its commitment; and (c)
is the commitment for a reasonable and appropriate period of time.
i. Commitments are a Limited Portion of Required Reductions
For the first factor, we look to see if the commitment addresses a
limited portion of a statutory requirement and review the amount of
emissions reductions needed to demonstrate attainment in a
nonattainment area. For this calculation, reductions assigned to the
new technologies provision (i.e., CAA section 182(e)(5) new technology
measures) are not counted as commitments.\115\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\115\ CAA section 182(e)(5) specifically allows EPA to approve
an attainment demonstration that relies on reductions from new
technologies. This provision is separate from the requirement in CAA
section 172(c)(6) for enforceable emissions limitations under which
enforceable commitments are considered. As a result, reductions
attributed in the attainment demonstration to new technologies are
not considered part of the State's enforceable commitments for
purposes of determining the percentage of reductions needed for
attainment that remain as commitments.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tables 9, 10, and 11 above show emission reductions needed to
demonstrate attainment of the 1-hour, 1997, and 2008 8-hour NAAQS in
the South Coast and the aggregate emissions reductions commitments by
the District and CARB. Based on these values, we have calculated the
percent of required reductions that would come from enforceable
commitments by the District and CARB (other than new technology
measures). See Table 12 below.
[[Page 28155]]
Table 12--Enforceable Aggregate Commitments as a Percentage of Required Reductions a
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2022 2023 2031
Attainment year ---------------------------------------------------------------
NOX VOC NOX NOX
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tons per day.................................... 21 6 28 45
Percentage of Required Reductions \b\........... 8% 5% 7% 11%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Notes and sources:
\a\ CAA section 182(e)(5) reductions are not included below.
\b\ The percentage of required emissions from enforceable commitments is calculated by dividing the sum of Rows
H and I in tables 9, 10, and 11 above by Row F.
As shown in Table 12, when compared to the total reductions needed
to demonstrate attainment (not including the CAA section 182(e)(5)
reductions in the attainment demonstration), the remaining portion of
the enforceable commitments represents a small fraction of the
reductions needed. Historically, the EPA has approved SIPs with
enforceable commitments in the range of approximately 10 percent of the
total needed reductions for attainment.\116\ Thus, we find that the
District's and CARB commitments in the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State
Strategy for the South Coast address a limited proportion of the
required emission reductions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\116\ See our approval of the following plans: San Joaquin
Valley (SJV) PM10 Plan at 69 FR 30005 (May 26, 2004); SJV
1-hour ozone plan at 75 FR 10420 (March 8, 2010); Houston-Galveston
1-hour ozone plan at 66 FR 57160 (November 14, 2001); South Coast
1997 8-hour ozone plan at 77 FR 12674 (March 1, 2012); and South
Coast 1-hour ozone plan at 79 FR 52526 (September 3, 2014).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
ii. The State Is Capable of Fulfilling its Commitment
For the second factor, we consider whether the District and CARB
are capable of fulfilling their commitments. CARB adopted and submitted
the 2016 State Strategy to achieve the reductions necessary from mobile
sources, fuels, and consumer products to meet ozone and
PM2.5 NAAQS over the next 15 years. The 2016 State Strategy
builds on the 2007 State Strategy and its revisions. The 2016 State
Strategy shows that CARB has made significant progress in fulfilling
its enforceable commitments from the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP. The
District has also made significant progress in meeting its enforceable
commitments in its prior AQMPs.
The District and CARB also have a history of funding incentive
grant programs to reduce emissions from the on- and off-road engine
fleets. CARB has also continued to work with the District on defining
funding needs and mechanisms for implementing the 2016 State Strategy.
Working with CARB, the District has estimated that sustained funding
levels of approximately $1 billion per year through 2031 will be needed
to support the necessary scale of technology transformation. The
District developed a Draft Financial Incentives Funding Action Plan
(``Funding Action Plan'') \117\ that describes existing sources of
funding, new funding opportunities, activities that will be undertaken
to pursue each potential funding mechanism, as well as a schedule and
reporting process. As part of this effort, the District has identified
a broad spectrum of potential funding mechanisms that could meet the
region's funding needs. The District established a stakeholder-based
2016 AQMP Funding Working Group that began meeting in August 2017 to
help further develop and implement the Funding Action Plan. CARB will
continue to collaborate with the District on the Funding Action Plan,
as well as play a key role in implementing state-level efforts that are
facilitating the transition to cleaner technologies, such as the
California Sustainable Freight Action Plan, the ZEV Action Plan, and
the Transformative Climate Communities program.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\117\ See http://www.aqmd.gov/docs/default-source/clean-air-plans/air-quality-management-plans/2016-air-quality-management-plan/draftfinancialincentivefunddec2016.pdf.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Given CARB's and the District's efforts to date to reduce
emissions, we believe that the State and District are capable of
meeting their enforceable commitments to adopt measures that will
reduce emissions to the levels needed to attain the 1-hour, 1997, and
2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast by the 2022, 2023, and 2031
attainment years, respectively.
iii. The Commitment Is for a Reasonable and Appropriate Timeframe
For the third and last factor, we consider whether the commitment
is for a reasonable and appropriate period of time. To meet the
commitments to adopt measures to reduce emissions to the levels needed
to attain the 1-hour, 1997, and 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast,
the 2016 AQMP and 2016 State Strategy includes ambitious rule
development, adoption, and implementation schedules. The District and
CARB have committed to take the necessary actions and to achieve the
remaining reductions by 2022, 2023, and 2031. We believe that this
period is appropriate given the technological and economic challenges
associated with the control measures that will be needed to achieve
these reductions and given the procedures under state law for
development and adoption of these measures. In addition, these
reductions are not needed to meet RFP targets for the 2008 ozone NAAQS,
and the adoption and submission timeframe ensures adequate time for
implementation by the beginning of the last full ozone season
applicable to each of the three ozone standards addressed in the 2016
South Coast Ozone SIP. Thus, the commitments are for a reasonable and
appropriate period of time.
iv. CAA Section 182(e)(5) New Technology Provisions
For ozone nonattainment areas classified as Extreme, the CAA
recognizes that an attainment demonstration may need to rely to a
certain extent on new or evolving technologies, given the long time
period between developing the initial plan and attaining the standard,
and the degree of emissions reductions needed to attain. To address
these needs, CAA section 182(e)(5) authorizes the EPA to approve
provisions in an Extreme area plan which ``anticipate development of
new control techniques or improvement of existing control
technologies,'' and to approve an attainment demonstration based on
such provisions, if the state demonstrates that: (1) Such provisions
are not necessary to achieve the incremental emission reductions
required during the first 10 years after November 15, 1990; and (2) the
state has submitted enforceable commitments to develop and adopt
contingency measures to be implemented if the anticipated technologies
do not achieve the planned reductions. The state must submit these
contingency measures to the EPA no later than 3 years before
[[Page 28156]]
proposed implementation of these long-term measures, and the
contingency measures must be ``adequate to produce emissions reductions
sufficient, in conjunction with other approved plan provisions, to
achieve the periodic emissions reductions required by [CAA sections
182(b)(1) or (c)(2)] and attainment by the applicable dates.'' \118\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\118\ Id.
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The General Preamble further provides that the new technology
measures contemplated by section 182(e)(5) may include those that
anticipate future technological developments as well as those that
require complex analyses, decision making, and coordination among a
number of government agencies.\119\ An attainment demonstration that
relies on long-term new technology measures under section 182(e)(5)
must identify any such measures and contain a schedule outlining the
steps leading to final development and adoption of the measures.\120\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\119\ General Preamble, 13524.
\120\ Id.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
CARB and the SCAQMD have demonstrated a clear need for emissions
reductions from new and improved control technologies to reduce air
pollution in the South Coast. The adopted control measures and
enforceable commitments, discussed above, provide the majority, but not
all, of the balance of the emissions reductions needed to attain the
1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS by 2023, and 2031, respectively. (The updated
attainment demonstration in the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP for the 1-
hour ozone NAAQS does not rely on CAA section 182(e)(5) new technology
provisions.)
Through adoption of the 2016 State Strategy, CARB is updating its
previously-approved commitments from the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP to
achieve aggregate emissions reductions from defined and new technology
measures for the 1997 ozone NAAQS. More specifically, CARB is replacing
its commitments to achieve 141 tpd of NOX reductions and 54
tpd of VOC reductions from defined measures and to achieve 241 tpd of
NOX reductions and 40 tpd of VOC reductions from new
technology measures by 2023 with a combined (i.e., defined and new
technology measures together in a single commitment) commitment to
achieve 113 tpd of NOX reductions and 50-51 tpd of VOC
reductions by 2023.
We find that CARB's updated commitment \121\ for the 1997 ozone
NAAQS in the 2016 State Strategy satisfies the criteria in CAA section
182(e)(5) for the following reasons: (1) The 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP
does not rely on the new technology measure reductions until the
attainment year (2023); (2) it does not rely on new technology measure
reductions to achieve RFP milestones for the first 10 years after
designation (for the 1997 ozone NAAQS); and (3) the previously-approved
commitment by CARB to submit contingency measures by 2020 (as necessary
to cover any shortfall from new technology measures) remains in effect.
Moreover, we find that the 2016 State Strategy adequately describes the
new technology measures by, among other things, identifying a schedule
outlining the specific actions to be taken to develop and adopt the
measures and achieve the related reductions.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\121\ We approved CARB's commitment for contingency measures to
cover any new technology measures shortfall as part of our approval
of the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP. 77 FR 12674, at 12695 (March 1,
2012) (approval of section 182(e)(5) contingency measure commitment
in CARB Resolution 11-22 (July 21, 2011).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
With respect to attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS for the South
Coast, through adoption of the 2016 State Strategy, CARB commits to
achieve aggregate emissions reductions from a combination of defined
and new technology measures of 111 tpd of NOX and 59-60 tpd
of VOC by 2031. As described above with respect to CARB's updated
commitment for the 1997 ozone NAAQS, we recognize that the 2016 State
Strategy does not rely on the new technology measure reductions until
the attainment year (2031) and thus, does not rely on them to achieve
RFP milestones for the first 10 years after designation (for the 2008
ozone NAAQS). Also, we find that CARB's description of the new
technology measures in the 2016 State Strategy to be adequate. For the
2008 ozone NAAQS, CARB has submitted a new commitment to develop, adopt
and submit contingency measures by 2028 if new technology measures do
not achieve planned reductions.\122\ We find that CARB's new commitment
complies with the criterion in CAA section 182(e)(5) that requires
submittal of such contingency measures no later than 3 years prior to
implementation of the new technology measures.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\122\ CARB Resolution 17-8, 9 (March 23, 2017) (CARB resolution
adopting the 2016 AQMP as a revision to the California SIP).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
v. Proposed Action on Measures in the Attainment Strategy
As discussed above, we believe that circumstances here warrant the
consideration of enforceable commitments, and that the three criteria
are met: (1) The commitments constitute a limited portion of the
required emissions reductions; (2) both CARB and the District are
capable of meeting their commitments; and (3) the commitments are for
an appropriate timeframe. Based on these evaluations, we are proposing
to approve the enforceable commitments as part of the attainment
demonstration.
More specifically, we propose to approve the SCAQMD's updated
commitments for the 1-hour and 1997 ozone NAAQS and new commitment for
the 2008 ozone NAAQS: (1) To develop, adopt, submit, and implement the
ozone measures in tables 4-2 and 4-4 of Chapter 4 in the 2016 AQMP
(main document); and (2) to meet or exceed the aggregate emissions
reduction commitments identified in tables 4-9 through 4-11 of the 2016
AQMP (main document); and (3) to substitute any other measures as
necessary to make up any emissions reduction shortfall following the
procedures set forth for such substitution in Chapter 4 (pages 4-54 and
4-55) of the 2016 AQMP.
We also propose to approve CARB's updated commitment for the 1997
ozone NAAQS and new commitment for the 2008 ozone NAAQS: (1) To bring
to its Board for consideration the list of proposed SIP measures
outlined in Chapter 4 of the 2016 State Strategy and included in
Attachment A (``Proposed New SIP Measures and Schedule'') of CARB Board
Resolution 17-7 according to the schedule set forth therein; and (2) to
achieve the aggregate emission reductions from defined and new
technology measures for the South Coast outlined in the 2016 State
Strategy of 113 tpd of NOX and 50-51 tpd of VOC by 2023 and
111 tpd of NOX and 59-60 tpd of VOC by 2031. In connection
with the new technology measures, we propose to find that the 2016
South Coast Ozone SIP meets the criteria for reliance on new technology
measures in CAA section 182(e)(5) for the 1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS.
Our proposed finding in this regard is based on the proposed approval
herein of CARB's commitment in Resolution 17-8 (March 23, 2017) to
develop, adopt, and submit contingency measures by 2028 (for the
purposes of attaining the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast) if new
technology measures do not achieve planned reductions. (As noted
previously, CARB has already submitted as part of the 2007 South Coast
Ozone SIP, and the EPA has approved, a commitment to submit such
measures by 2020 for the purposes of attaining the 1997 ozone NAAQS in
the South Coast if new technology measures do not achieve planned
reductions.)
[[Page 28157]]
c. Attainment Demonstration
Based on our proposed determinations that the photochemical
modeling and control strategy are acceptable, and our proposed approval
of the aggregate emissions reduction commitments by the District and
CARB, including the commitment by CARB to submit contingency measures
to cover the reductions from new technology measures if needed, we
propose to approve the updated attainment demonstrations for the 1-hour
ozone NAAQS and the 1997 ozone NAAQS, and the attainment demonstration
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP as meeting
the requirements of CAA section 182(c)(2)(A) and 40 CFR 51.1108.\123\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\123\ We recognize that in Table 11 the control strategy is
expected to achieve a NOX emissions level of 97 tpd by
2031 in the South Coast whereas the modeled attainment demonstration
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS is based on a NOX emissions
level of 96 tpd. However, we believe that the control strategy will
suffice to attain the NAAQS because a shortfall of 1 tpd of
NOX is unlikely to have a 0.001 ppm or greater impact on
the 0.075 ppm model-predicted 8-hour ozone concentration in 2031
(controlled case) at the highest site (Fontana) as shown in Table 5-
2 of the 2016 AQMP based on the isopleth map for the Fontana site
shown on page 7 of Attachment 4 to Appendix V of the 2016 AQMP.
(Note that under the control strategy in the 2016 AQMP and 2016
State Strategy, South Coast VOC emissions in 2031 are expected to be
approximately 292-293 tpd based on the 2031 baseline value (362 tpd)
minus the District's and CARB's aggregate emission reduction
commitments by 2031.)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
E. Rate of Progress Plan and Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
Requirements for RFP for ozone nonattainment areas are specified in
CAA sections 172(c)(2), 182(b)(1), and 182(c)(2)(B). Under CAA section
171(1), RFP is defined as meaning such annual incremental reductions in
emissions of the relevant air pollutant as are required under part D
(``Plan Requirements for Nonattainment Areas'') or may reasonably be
required by the EPA for the purpose of ensuring attainment of the
applicable NAAQS by the applicable date. CAA section 182(b)(1)
specifically requires that ozone nonattainment areas that are
classified as Moderate or above demonstrate a 15 percent reduction in
VOC between the years of 1990 and 1996. The EPA has typically referred
to section 182(b)(1) as the Rate of Progress (ROP) requirement. For
ozone nonattainment areas classified as Serious or higher, section
182(c)(2)(B) requires reductions averaged over each consecutive 3-year
period, beginning 6 years after the baseline year until the attainment
date, of at least 3 percent of baseline emissions per year. The
provisions in CAA section 182(c)(2)(B)(ii) allow an amount less than 3
percent of such baseline emissions each year if the state demonstrates
to the EPA that the plan includes all measures that can feasibly be
implemented in the area in light of technological achievability.
In the 2008 Ozone SRR, the EPA provides that areas classified
Moderate or higher will have met the ROP requirements of CAA section
182(b)(1) if the area has a fully approved 15 percent ROP plan for the
1-hour or 1997 8-hour ozone standards, provided the boundaries of the
ozone nonattainment areas are the same.\124\ For such areas, the EPA
interprets the RFP requirements of CAA section 172(c)(2) to require
areas classified as Moderate to provide a 15 percent emission reduction
of ozone precursors within 6 years of the baseline year. Areas
classified as Serious or higher must meet the RFP requirements of CAA
section 182(c)(2)(B) by providing an 18 percent reduction of ozone
precursors in the first 6-year period, and an average ozone precursor
emission reduction of 3 percent per year for all remaining 3-year
periods thereafter.\125\ To meet CAA sections 172(c)(2) and
182(c)(2)(B) RFP requirements, the state may substitute NOX
emissions reductions for VOC reductions.\126\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\124\ 70 FR 12264, at 12271 (March 6, 2015).
\125\ Id.
\126\ 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(2)(i)(C) and 40 CFR
51.1110(a)(2)(ii)(B); and 70 FR 12264, at 12271 (March 6, 2015).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Except as specifically provided in CAA section 182(b)(1)(C),
emissions reductions from all SIP-approved, federally promulgated, or
otherwise SIP-creditable measures that occur after the baseline year
are creditable for purposes of demonstrating that the RFP targets are
met. Because the EPA has determined that the passage of time has caused
the effect of certain exclusions to be de minimis, the RFP
demonstration is no longer required to calculate and specifically
exclude reductions from measures related to motor vehicle exhaust or
evaporative emissions promulgated by January 1, 1990; regulations
concerning Reid vapor pressure promulgated by November 15, 1990;
measures to correct previous RACT requirements; and, measures required
to correct previous inspection and maintenance (I/M) programs.\127\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\127\ 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(7).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The 2008 Ozone SRR requires the RFP baseline year to be the most
recent calendar year for which a complete triennial inventory was
required to be submitted to the EPA. For the purposes of developing RFP
demonstrations for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, the applicable triennial
inventory year is 2011. As discussed previously, the 2008 Ozone SRR
provided states with the opportunity to use an alternative baseline
year for RFP,\128\ but that provision of the 2008 Ozone SRR was vacated
by the D.C. Circuit in the South Coast II decision.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\128\ 40 CFR 51.1110(b).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. Summary of the State's Submission
In response to the South Coast II decision, CARB developed the 2018
SIP Update, which replaces the RFP portion of the 2016 AQMP and
includes updated emissions estimates for the RFP baseline year,
subsequent milestone years, and the attainment year, and an updated RFP
demonstration relying on a 2011 RFP baseline year.\129\ To develop the
2011 RFP baseline inventory, CARB relied on actual emissions reported
from industrial point sources for year 2011 and backcast emissions from
smaller stationary sources and area sources from 2012 to 2011 using the
same growth and control factors as was used for the 2016 AQMP. To
develop the emissions inventories for the RFP milestone years (i.e.,
2017, 2020, 2023, 2026, 2029) and attainment year (2031), CARB also
relied upon the same growth and control factors as the 2016 AQMP.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\129\ 2018 SIP Update, RFP demonstration, section IX-B, 64 and
65.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Documentation for the South Coast RFP baseline and milestone
emissions inventories is found in the 2018 SIP Update on pages 4-5, 63-
65, and appendix A, pages A-31--A-35. For both sets of baseline
emissions inventories (those in the 2016 AQMP and those in the 2018 SIP
Update), emissions estimates reflect District rules adopted through
December 2015 and CARB rules adopted through November 2015. Unlike the
emissions inventories for the base year (2012) and for the attainment
demonstrations in the 2016 AQMP, the RFP baseline and milestone
emissions inventories only include emissions within the South Coast
ozone nonattainment area and thus do not include marine emissions
(e.g., emissions from ocean-going vessels) beyond three nautical miles
from the coastline. In contrast, the base year (2012) and attainment
demonstration inventories include emissions from marine vessels out to
100 miles from the coastline.
[[Page 28158]]
The updated RFP demonstration for the South Coast for the 2008
ozone NAAQS is shown in Table 13. The updated RFP demonstration
calculates future year VOC targets from the 2011 baseline, consistent
with CAA 182(c)(2)(B)(i), which requires reductions of ``at least 3
percent of baseline emissions each year;'' and it substitutes
NOX reductions for VOC reductions beginning in milestone
year 2020 to meet VOC emission targets.\130\ For the South Coast, CARB
concludes that the RFP demonstration meets the applicable requirements
for each milestone year as well as the attainment year.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\130\ NOX substitution is permitted under EPA
regulations. See 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(2)(i)(C) and 40 CFR
51.1110(a)(2)(ii)(B); and 70 FR 12264, at 12271 (March 6, 2015).
Table 13--RFP Demonstration for the South Coast for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS
[Summer planning inventory, tpd or percent]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2011 2017 2020 2023 2026 2029 2031
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VOC
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline VOC................................................. 522.0 413.7 388.6 376.0 367.5 362.5 358.3
Required change since 2011 (VOC or NOX), %................... ........... 18% 27% 36% 45% 54% 60%
Required reductions since 2011, tpd.......................... ........... 94.0 140.9 187.9 234.9 281.9 313.2
Target VOC level............................................. ........... 428.0 381.1 334.1 287.1 240.1 208.8
Apparent shortfall (-)/surplus (+) in VOC.................... ........... 14.3 -7.5 -41.9 -80.4 -122.4 -149.5
Apparent shortfall (-)/surplus (+) in VOC, %................. ........... 2.8% -1.4% -8.0% -15.4% -23.4% -28.6%
VOC shortfall previously provided by NOX substitution, %..... ........... 0.0% 0.0% 1.4% 8.0% 15.4% 23.4%
Actual VOC shortfall (-)/surplus (+), %...................... ........... 2.8% -1.4% -6.6% -7.4% -8.1% -5.2%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NO
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline NOX................................................. 534.3 366.2 306.5 239.0 220.9 209.9 204.9
Change in NOX since 2011, tpd................................ ........... 168.1 227.9 295.3 313.4 324.4 329.4
Change in NOX since 2011, %.................................. ........... 31.5% 42.6% 55.3% 58.7% 60.7% 61.7%
NOX reductions used for VOC substitution through last ........... 0% 0% 1.4% 8.0% 15.4% 23.4%
milestone year, %...........................................
NOX reductions since 2011 available for VOC substitution in ........... 31.5% 42.6% 53.8% 50.6% 45.3% 38.2%
this milestone year, %......................................
NOX reductions since 2011 used for VOC substitution in this ........... 0% 1.4% 6.6% 7.4% 8.1% 5.2%
milestone year, %...........................................
NOX reductions since 2011 surplus after meeting VOC ........... 31.5% 41.2% 47.2% 43.3% 37.3% 33.0%
substitution needs in this milestone year, %................
Total shortfall for RFP...................................... ........... 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
RFP met?..................................................... ........... Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Table IX-2 of the 2018 SIP Update.
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
In 1997, the EPA approved a 15 percent ROP plan for the South Coast
ozone nonattainment area for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, and the South
Coast nonattainment area for the 2008 ozone NAAQS is the same as the
South Coast nonattainment area for the 1-hour ozone NAAQS.\131\ As a
result, the District and CARB have met the ROP requirements of CAA
section 182(b)(1) for the South Coast and do not need to demonstrate
another 15 percent reduction in VOC for this area.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\131\ 62 FR 1150, at 1183 (January 8, 1997).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Based on our review of the emissions inventory documentation in the
2016 AQMP and 2018 SIP Update, we find that CARB and the District have
used the most recent planning and activity assumptions, emissions
models, and methodologies in developing the RFP baseline and milestone
year emissions inventories. We have also have reviewed the calculations
in Table IX-2 of the 2018 SIP Update and presented in Table 13 above
and find that the District and CARB have used an appropriate
calculation method to demonstrate RFP. For these reasons, we have
determined that the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP demonstrates RFP in each
milestone year and the attainment year, consistent with applicable CAA
requirements and EPA guidance. We therefore propose to approve the RFP
demonstrations for the South Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS under
sections 172(c)(2), 182(b)(1) and 182(c)(2)(B) of the CAA and 40 CFR
51.1110(a)(2)(ii).
F. Transportation Control Strategies and Measures to Offset Emissions
Increases From Vehicle Miles Traveled
1. Stationary and Regulatory Requirements
Section 182(d)(1)(A) of the Act requires, in relevant part, the
state, if subject to its requirements for a given area, to ``submit a
revision that identifies and adopts specific enforceable transportation
control strategies and transportation control measures to offset any
growth in emissions from growth in vehicle miles traveled or number of
vehicle trips in such area.'' \132\ Herein, we use ``VMT'' to refer to
vehicle miles traveled and refer to the related SIP requirement as the
``VMT emissions offset requirement.'' In addition, we refer to the SIP
revision intended to demonstrate compliance with the VMT emissions
offset requirement as the ``VMT emissions offset demonstration.''
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\132\ CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) includes three separate elements.
In short, under section 182(d)(1)(A), states are required to adopt
transportation control strategies and measures to offset growth in
emissions from growth in VMT, and, as necessary, in combination with
other emission reduction requirements, to demonstrate RFP and
attainment. For more information on the EPA's interpretation of the
three elements of section 182(d)(1)(A). See 77 FR 58067, at 58068
(September 19, 2012) (proposed withdrawal of approval of South Coast
VMT emissions offset demonstrations). In section III.F of this
document, we are addressing the first element of CAA section
182(d)(1)(A) (i.e., the VMT emissions offset requirement). In
sections III.E and D of this document, we are proposing to approve
the RFP and attainment demonstrations, respectively, for the 2008
ozone NAAQS in the South Coast, and compliance with the second and
third elements of section 182(d)(1)(A) is predicated on final
approval of the RFP and attainment demonstrations.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, the United States
Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit (``Court'') ruled that
additional transportation control measures are required whenever
vehicle emissions are projected to be higher than they would have been
had VMT not increased, even when aggregate
[[Page 28159]]
vehicle emissions are actually decreasing.\133\ In response to the
Court's decision, in August 2012, the EPA issued a memorandum titled
``Guidance on Implementing Clean Air Act Section 182(d)(1)(A):
Transportation Control Measures and Transportation Control Strategies
to Offset Growth in Emissions Due to Growth in Vehicle Miles
Travelled'' (herein referred to as the ``August 2012 guidance'').\134\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\133\ See Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d.
584, at 596-597 (9th Cir. 2011), reprinted as amended on January 27,
2012, 686 F.3d 668, further amended February 13, 2012 (``Association
of Irritated Residents'').
\134\ Memorandum dated August 30, 2012, Karl Simon, Director,
Transportation and Climate Division, Office of Transportation and
Air Quality, to Carl Edland, Director, Multimedia Planning and
Permitting Division, EPA Region 6, and Deborah Jordan, Director, Air
Division, EPA Region 9.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The August 2012 guidance discusses the meaning of ``transportation
control strategies'' (TCSs) and ``transportation control measures''
(TCMs) and recommends that both TCSs and TCMs be included in the
calculations made for the purpose of determining the degree to which
any hypothetical growth in emissions due to growth in VMT should be
offset. Generally, TCSs is a broad term that encompasses many types of
controls including, for example, motor vehicle emission limitations, I/
M programs, alternative fuel programs, other technology-based measures,
and TCMs, that would fit within the regulatory definition of ``control
strategy.'' \135\ TCMs are defined at 40 CFR 51.100(r) as meaning ``any
measure that is directed toward reducing emissions of air pollutants
from transportation sources. Such measures include, but are not limited
to those listed in section 108(f) of the Clean Air Act[,].'' TCMs
generally refer to programs intended to reduce the VMT, the number of
vehicle trips, or traffic congestion, such as programs for improved
public transit, designation of certain lanes for passenger buses and
high-occupancy vehicles, and trip reduction ordinances.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\135\ See, e.g., 40 CFR 51.100(n).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The August 2012 guidance explains how states may demonstrate that
the VMT emissions offset requirement is satisfied in conformance with
the Court's ruling. States are recommended to estimate emissions for
the nonattainment area's base year and the attainment year. One
emission inventory is developed for the base year, and three different
emissions inventory scenarios are developed for the attainment year.
For the attainment year, the state would present three emissions
estimates, two of which would represent hypothetical emissions
scenarios that would provide the basis to identify the ``growth in
emissions'' due solely to the growth in VMT, and one that would
represent projected actual motor vehicle emissions after fully
accounting for projected VMT growth and offsetting emissions reductions
obtained by all creditable TCSs and TCMs. See the August 2012 guidance
for specific details on how states might conduct the calculations.
The base year on-road VOC emissions should be calculated using VMT
in that year, and it should reflect all enforceable TCSs and TCMs in
place in the base year. This would include vehicle emissions standards,
state and local control programs, such as I/M programs or fuel rules,
and any additional implemented TCSs and TCMs that were already required
by or credited in the SIP as of that base year.
The first of the emissions calculations for the attainment year
would be based on the projected VMT and trips for that year and assume
that no new TCSs or TCMs beyond those already credited in the base year
inventory have been put in place since the base year. This calculation
demonstrates how emissions would hypothetically change if no new TCSs
or TCMs were implemented, and VMT and trips were allowed to grow at the
projected rate from the base year. This estimate would show the
potential for an increase in emissions due solely to growth in VMT and
trips. This represents a ``no action'' taken scenario. Emissions in the
attainment year in this scenario may be lower than those in the base
year due to the fleet that was on the road in the base year gradually
being replaced through fleet turnover; however, provided VMT and/or
numbers of vehicle trips will in fact increase by the attainment year,
they would still likely be higher than they would have been assuming
VMT had held constant.
The second of the attainment year's emissions calculations would
assume that no new TCSs or TCMs beyond those already credited have been
put in place since the base year, but it would also assume that there
was no growth in VMT and trips between the base year and attainment
year. This estimate reflects the hypothetical emissions level that
would have occurred if no further TCMs or TCSs had been put in place
and if VMT and trip levels had held constant since the base year. Like
the ``no action'' attainment year estimate described above, emissions
in the attainment year may be lower than those in the base year due to
the fleet that was on the road in the base year gradually being
replaced by cleaner vehicles through fleet turnover, but in this case
they would not be influenced by any growth in VMT or trips. This
emissions estimate would reflect a ceiling on the attainment emissions
that should be allowed to occur under the statute as interpreted by the
Court because it shows what would happen under a scenario in which no
offsetting TCSs or TCMs have yet been put in place and VMT and trips
are held constant during the period from the area's base year to its
attainment year. This represents a ``VMT offset ceiling'' scenario.
These two hypothetical status quo estimates are necessary steps in
identifying the target level of emissions from which states would
determine whether further TCMs or TCSs, beyond those that have been
adopted and implemented in reality, would need to be adopted and
implemented in order to fully offset any increase in emissions due
solely to VMT and trips identified in the ``no action'' scenario.
Finally, the state would present the emissions that are actually
expected to occur in the area's attainment year after taking into
account reductions from all enforceable TCSs and TCMs that in reality
were put in place after the baseline year. This estimate would be based
on the VMT and trip levels expected to occur in the attainment year
(i.e., the VMT and trip levels from the first estimate) and all of the
TCSs and TCMs expected to be in place and for which the SIP will take
credit in the area's attainment year, including any TCMs and TCSs put
in place since the base year. This represents the ``projected actual''
attainment year scenario. If this emissions estimate is less than or
equal to the emissions ceiling that was established in the second of
the attainment year calculations, the TCSs or TCMs for the attainment
year would be sufficient to fully offset the identified hypothetical
growth in emissions.
If, instead, the estimated projected actual attainment year
emissions are still greater than the ceiling which was established in
the second of the attainment year emissions calculations, even after
accounting for post-baseline year TCSs and TCMs, the state would need
to adopt and implement additional TCSs or TCMs to further offset the
growth in emissions. The additional TCSs or TCMs would need to bring
the actual emissions down to at least the ``had VMT and trips held
constant'' ceiling estimated in the second of the attainment year
calculations, in order to meet the VMT offset requirement of section
182(d)(1)(A) as interpreted by the Court.
[[Page 28160]]
2. Summary of State's Submission
CARB prepared the VMT emissions offset demonstration for the South
Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, and the District included it in 2016
AQMP as appendix VI-E (``VMT Offset Demonstration''). In addition to
the VMT emissions offset demonstration, appendix VI-E of the 2016 AQMP
includes two attachments--one listing the TCSs adopted by CARB since
1990 and another listing the TCMs developed by SCAG (as of September
2014) in the South Coast region that are subject to timely
implementation reporting requirements.
For the VMT emissions offset demonstration, CARB used EMFAC2014,
the latest EPA-approved motor vehicle emissions model for California.
The EMFAC2014 model estimates the on-road emissions from two combustion
processes (i.e., running exhaust and start exhaust) and four
evaporative processes (i.e., hot soak, running losses, diurnal losses,
and resting losses). The EMFAC2014 model combines trip-based VMT data
from the regional transportation planning agency (i.e., SCAG), starts
data based on household travel surveys, and vehicle population data
from the California Department of Motor Vehicles. These sets of data
are combined with corresponding emission rates to calculate emissions.
Emissions from running exhaust, start exhaust, hot soak, and
running losses are a function of how much a vehicle is driven.
Emissions from these processes are thus directly related to VMT and
vehicle trips, and CARB included emissions from them in the
calculations that provide the basis for the South Coast VMT emissions
offset demonstration. CARB did not include emissions from resting loss
and diurnal loss processes in the analysis because such emissions are
related to vehicle population, not to VMT or vehicle trips, and thus
are not part of ``any growth in emissions from growth in vehicle miles
traveled or numbers of vehicle trips in such area'' under CAA section
182(d)(1)(A).
The South Coast VMT emissions offset demonstration uses 2012 as the
``base year.'' The base year for VMT emissions offset demonstration
purposes should generally be the same base year used for nonattainment
planning purposes. In section III.A of this document, the EPA is
proposing to approve the 2012 base year inventory for the South Coast
for the purposes of the 2008 ozone NAAQS, and thus, CARB's selection of
2012 as the base year for the South Coast VMT emissions offset
demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS is appropriate.
The South Coast VMT emissions offset demonstration also includes
the previously described three different attainment year scenarios
(i.e., no action, VMT offset ceiling, and projected actual). The 2016
AQMP provides a demonstration of attainment of the 2008 ozone NAAQS in
the South Coast by the applicable attainment date, based on the
controlled 2031 emissions inventory. As described in section III.D of
this document, the EPA is proposing to approve the attainment
demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS for the South Coast, and thus,
we find CARB's selection of year 2031 as the attainment year for the
VMT emissions offset demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS to be
acceptable.
Table 14 summarizes the relevant distinguishing parameters for each
of the emissions scenarios and shows CARB's corresponding VOC emissions
estimates for the demonstration for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
Table 14--VMT Emissions Offset Inventory Scenarios and Results for 2008 Ozone NAAQS
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
VMT Starts Controls VOC Emissions
Scenario -----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year 1000/day Year 1000/day Year tpd
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Base Year............................................... 2012 380,248 2012 69,789 2012 138
No Action............................................... 2031 408,964 2031 78,894 2012 64
VMT Offset Ceiling...................................... 2031 380,248 2012 69,789 2012 61
Projected Actual........................................ 2031 408,964 2031 78,894 2031 40
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2016 AQMP, Appendix VI-E.
For the base year scenario, CARB ran the EMFAC2014 model for the
applicable base year (i.e., 2012 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS) using VMT
and starts data corresponding to that year. As shown in Table 14, CARB
estimates the South Coast VOC emissions at 138 tpd in 2012.
For the ``no action'' scenario, CARB first identified the on-road
motor vehicle control programs (i.e., TCSs or TCMs) put in place since
the base year and incorporated into EMFAC2014 and then ran EMFAC2014
with the VMT and starts data corresponding to the applicable attainment
year (i.e., 2031 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS) without the emissions
reductions from the on-road motor vehicle control programs put in place
after the base year. Thus, the no action scenario reflects the
hypothetical VOC emissions that would occur in the attainment year in
the South Coast if the CARB had not put in place any additional TCSs or
TCMs after 2012. As shown in Table 14, CARB estimates the ``no action''
South Coast VOC emissions at 64 tpd in 2031.
For the ``VMT offset ceiling'' scenario, CARB ran the EMFAC2014
model for the attainment years but with VMT and starts data
corresponding to base year values. Like the no action scenario, the
EMFAC2014 model was adjusted to reflect the VOC emissions levels in the
attainment years without the benefits of the post-base-year on-road
motor vehicle control programs. Thus, the VMT offset ceiling scenario
reflects hypothetical VOC emissions in the South Coast if CARB had not
put in place any TCSs or TCMs after the base year and if there had been
no growth in VMT or vehicle trips between the base year and the
attainment year.
The hypothetical growth in emissions due to growth in VMT and trips
can be determined from the difference between the VOC emissions
estimates under the ``no action'' scenario and the corresponding
estimates under the ``VMT offset ceiling'' scenario. Based on the
values in Table 14, the hypothetical growth in emissions due to growth
in VMT and trips in the South Coast would have been 3 tpd (i.e., 64 tpd
minus 61 tpd). This hypothetical difference establishes the level of
VMT growth-caused emissions that need to be offset by the combination
of post-baseline year TCMs and TCSs and any necessary additional TCMs
and TCSs.
For the ``projected actual'' scenario calculation, CARB ran the
EMFAC2014 model for the attainment year with VMT
[[Page 28161]]
and starts data at attainment year values and with the full benefits of
the relevant post-baseline year motor vehicle control programs. For
this scenario, CARB included the emissions benefits from TCSs and TCMs
put in place since the base year. The most significant measures
reducing VOC emissions during the 2012 to 2031 timeframe include the
Advanced Clean Cars program, ZEV requirements, and more stringent on-
board diagnostics requirements.\136\
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\136\ Attachment V-E-1 to appendix VI of the 2016 AQMP includes
a list of the State's transportation control strategies adopted by
CARB since 1990. Also see EPA final action on CARB mobile source SIP
submittals at 81 FR 39424 (June 16, 2016), 82 FR 14446 (March 21,
2017), and 83 FR 23232 (May 18, 2018).
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As shown in Table 14, the projected actual attainment-year VOC
emissions is 40 tpd. CARB then compared this value against the
corresponding VMT offset ceiling value to determine whether additional
TCMs or TCSs would need to be adopted and implemented in order to
offset any increase in emissions due solely to VMT and trips. Because
the projected actual emissions are less than the corresponding VMT
offset ceiling emissions, CARB concluded that the demonstration shows
compliance with the VMT emissions offset requirement and that there are
sufficient adopted TCSs and TCMs to offset the growth in emissions from
the growth in VMT and vehicle trips in the South Coast for the 2008
ozone NAAQS.
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
Based on our review of revised South Coast VMT emissions offset
demonstration in appendix VI-E of the 2016 AQMP, we find CARB's
analysis to be consistent with our August 2012 guidance and consistent
with the emissions and vehicle activity estimates found elsewhere in
the 2016 AQMP. We agree that CARB and SCAG have adopted sufficient TCSs
and TCMs to offset the growth in emissions from growth in VMT and
vehicle trips in the South Coast for the purposes of the 2008 ozone
NAAQS. As such, we propose to approve the South Coast VMT emissions
offset demonstration element of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP as
meeting the requirements of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A).
G. Contingency Measures
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
Under the CAA, 8-hour ozone nonattainment areas classified under
subpart 2 as Moderate or above must include in their SIPs contingency
measures consistent with sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9). Contingency
measures are additional controls or measures to be implemented in the
event the area fails to make reasonable further progress or to attain
the NAAQS by the attainment date. The SIP should contain trigger
mechanisms for the contingency measures, specify a schedule for
implementation, and indicate that the measure will be implemented
without significant further action by the state or the EPA.\137\
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\137\ 70 FR 71612 (November 29, 2005). See also 2008 Ozone SRR,
80 FR 12264, at 12285 (March 6, 2015).
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Neither the CAA nor the EPA's implementing regulations establish a
specific level of emissions reductions that implementation of
contingency measures must achieve, but the EPA's 2008 Ozone SRR
reiterates the EPA's policy that contingency measures should provide
for emissions reductions approximately equivalent to one year's worth
progress, amounting to reductions of 3 percent of the baseline
emissions inventory for the nonattainment area.\138\
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\138\ 80 FR 12264 at 12285 (March 6, 2015).
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It has been the EPA's longstanding interpretation of section
172(c)(9) that states may rely on federal measures (e.g., federal
mobile source measures based on the incremental turnover of the motor
vehicle fleet each year) and local measures already scheduled for
implementation that provide emissions reductions in excess of those
needed to provide for RFP or expeditious attainment. The key is that
the statute requires that contingency measures provide for additional
emissions reductions that are not relied on for RFP or attainment and
that are not included in the RFP or attainment demonstrations as
meeting part or all of the contingency measure requirements. The
purpose of contingency measures is to provide continued emissions
reductions while the plan is being revised to meet the missed milestone
or attainment date.
The EPA has approved numerous SIPs under this interpretation--i.e.,
SIPs that use as contingency measures one or more federal or local
measures that are in place and provide reductions that are in excess of
the reductions required by the attainment demonstration or RFP
plan,\139\ and there is case law supporting the EPA's interpretation in
this regard.\140\ However, in Bahr v. EPA, the Ninth Circuit rejected
the EPA's interpretation of CAA section 172(c)(9) as allowing for early
implementation of contingency measures.\141\ The Ninth Circuit
concluded that contingency measures must take effect at the time the
area fails to make RFP or attain by the applicable attainment date, not
before.\142\ Thus, within the geographic jurisdiction of the Ninth
Circuit, states cannot rely on early-implemented measures to comply
with the contingency measure requirements under CAA section 172(c)(9)
and 182(c)(9).\143\
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\139\ See, e.g., 62 FR 15844 (April 3, 1997) (direct final rule
approving an Indiana ozone SIP revision); 62 FR 66279 (December 18,
1997) (final rule approving an Illinois ozone SIP revision); 66 FR
30811 (June 8, 2001) (direct final rule approving a Rhode Island
ozone SIP revision); 66 FR 586 (January 3, 2001) (final rule
approving District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia ozone SIP
revisions); and 66 FR 634 (January 3, 2001) (final rule approving a
Connecticut ozone SIP revision).
\140\ See, e.g., LEAN v. EPA, 382 F.3d 575 (5th Cir. 2004)
(upholding contingency measures that were previously required and
implemented where they were in excess of the attainment
demonstration and RFP SIP).
\141\ Bahr v. EPA, 836 F.3d 1218, at 1235-1237 (9th Cir. 2016).
\142\ Id. at 1235-1237.
\143\ The Bahr v. EPA decision involved a challenge to an EPA
approval of contingency measures under the general nonattainment
area plan provisions for contingency measures in CAA section
172(c)(9), but, given the similarity between the statutory language
in section 172(c)(9) and the ozone-specific contingency measure
provision in section 182(c)(9), we find that the decision affects
how both sections of the Act must be interpreted.
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With respect to Extreme ozone nonattainment areas, CAA section
182(e)(5) allows the agency to exercise discretion in approving Extreme
area attainment plans that rely, in part, on the future development of
new control technologies or improvements of existing control
technologies, where certain conditions are met. Among the conditions to
qualify for reliance on section 182(e)(5) is the requirement that the
state submit enforceable commitments to timely develop and adopt
contingency measures to be implemented if the anticipated future
technologies do not achieve planned reductions. Contingency measures
submitted to comply with commitments made for the purposes of section
182(e)(5) differ in substance from contingency measures submitted to
comply with sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) in that the former
addresses a potential failure to meet an emissions reduction target
whereas the latter address a potential failure to meet an ambient
concentration target (i.e., in this case, the 2008 ozone NAAQS).
However, in our 2008 Ozone SRR, we recognized the inherent difficulty
in identifying specific contingency measures to be triggered upon a
failure to attain the NAAQS by the applicable attainment date in
Extreme nonattainment areas that rely on the new technology provisions
in section 182(e)(5) to demonstrate attainment, and thus, we allow
states to submit, for such
[[Page 28162]]
areas, enforceable commitments to develop and adopt contingency
measures meeting the requirements of section 182(e)(5) to satisfy the
requirements for both attainment contingency measures in CAA sections
172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9).\144\ These enforceable commitments must
obligate the state to submit the required contingency measures (i.e.,
contingency measures to be triggered if the emissions reduction target
under section 182(e)(5) is not met and contingency measures to be
triggered if the area fails to attain the NAAQS by the applicable
attainment date) to the EPA no later than three years before any
applicable implementation date, in accordance with section
182(e)(5).\145\
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\144\ 80 FR 12264, at 12285-12286 (March 6, 2015).
\145\ Id.
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2. Summary of the State's Submission
The District and CARB had largely prepared the 2016 AQMP prior to
the Bahr v. EPA decision, and thus, it relies solely upon surplus
emissions reductions from already implemented control measures in the
RFP milestone years to demonstrate compliance with the RFP milestone
contingency measure requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(9) and
182(c)(9).\146\ Because the attainment demonstration for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS relies on CAA section 182(e)(5) reductions in the 2016 State
Strategy, CARB has submitted a commitment to develop, adopt, and submit
contingency measures by 2028 if the section 182(e)(5) measures do not
achieve planned reductions.\147\ More recently, in a letter from CARB
dated May 20, 2019, CARB clarified that the commitment to submit
contingency measures as needed to address shortfalls in the emissions
reductions anticipated by new technology measures under section
182(e)(5) also includes a commitment to submit by 2028 contingency
measures to be triggered upon a failure to attain the 2008 ozone NAAQS
in the South Coast by the applicable attainment date as required under
sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9).\148\
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\146\ 2016 AQMP, 4-51 and 4-52; appendix VI-C, pages V-C-1--V-C-
4.
\147\ CARB Board Resolution 7-18, 9.
\148\ Letter dated May 20, 2019, from Michael Benjamin, CARB, to
Amy Zimpfer, EPA Region IX.
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In the 2018 SIP Update, CARB revises the RFP demonstration for the
2008 ozone NAAQS for the South Coast and recalculates the extent of
surplus emission reductions (i.e., surplus to meeting the RFP milestone
requirement for a given milestone year) in the milestone years. In
light of the Bahr v. EPA decision, however, the 2018 SIP Update does
not rely on the surplus or incremental emissions reductions to comply
with the contingency measures requirements of sections 172(c)(9) and
182(c)(9) but, to provide context in which to review contingency
measures for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, the 2018 SIP Update documents the
extent to which future baseline emissions would provide surplus
emissions reductions beyond those required to meet applicable RFP
milestones.\149\ More specifically, the 2018 SIP Update identifies one
year's worth of RFP as approximately 16 tpd and estimates surplus
NOX reductions as ranging from approximately 170 tpd to 250
tpd depending upon the particular RFP milestone year.
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\149\ 2018 SIP Update, chapter IX, tables IX-2, IX-5 and IX-6.
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To comply with sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9), as interpreted in
the Bahr v. EPA decision, the state must develop, adopt and submit a
contingency measure to be triggered upon a failure to meet RFP
milestones or failure to attain the NAAQS by the applicable attainment
date regardless of the extent to which already-implemented measures
would achieve surplus emissions reductions beyond those necessary to
meet RFP milestones and beyond those predicted to achieve attainment of
the NAAQS. Therefore, to fully address the contingency measure
requirement for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast, the District
has committed to develop, adopt and submit a contingency measure to
CARB in sufficient time to allow CARB to submit the contingency measure
as a SIP revision to the EPA within 12 months of the EPA's final
conditional approval of the contingency measure element of the 2016
South Coast Ozone SIP.\150\ The District's specific commitment is to
modify one (or more) existing rule, or adopt a new rule or rules, that
would include a more stringent requirement or remove an exemption if
the EPA determines that the South Coast nonattainment area has missed
an RFP milestone for the 2008 ozone NAAQS. More specifically, the
District has identified a list of 12 different rules that the District
is reviewing for inclusion of potential contingency provisions. The
rules and the types of revisions under review for contingency purposes
include: New Rule 1109.1 (NOX Emission Reductions From
Refinery Equipment) (contingency to remove an exemption (e.g., low-use
exemption) for a specific refinery equipment category); existing Rule
1110.2 (Emissions from Gaseous- and Liquid-Fueled Engines) (contingency
to remove exemptions for orchard wind machines powered by internal
combustion engines and agricultural stationary engines); and existing
Rule 1117 (Emissions of Oxides of Nitrogen from Glass Melting Furnaces)
(contingency to remove exemptions for idling furnaces and furnaces used
in the melting of glass for the production of fiberglass exclusively),
among others.
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\150\ Letters dated January 29, 2019 and May 2, 2019, from Wayne
Nastri, SCAQMD Executive Officer, to Richard Corey, Executive
Officer, CARB.
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CARB has attached the District's commitment to revise a rule to a
letter committing to adopt and submit the revised rule to the EPA
within one year of the EPA's final action on the contingency measure
element of the 2016 South Coast Ozone Plan.\151\
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\151\ Letters dated February 13, 2019, from Richard Corey,
Executive Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA
Region IX, and May 20, 2019, from Michael Benjamin, CARB, to Amy
Zimpfer, EPA Region IX.
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3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
Sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) require contingency measures to
address potential failure to achieve RFP milestones or failure to
attain the NAAQS by the applicable attainment date. For the purposes of
evaluating the contingency measure element of the 2016 South Coast
Ozone SIP, we find it useful to distinguish between contingency
measures to address potential failure to achieve RFP milestones (``RFP
contingency measures'') and contingency measures to address potential
failure to attain the NAAQS (``attainment contingency measures'').
With respect to the RFP contingency measure requirement, we have
reviewed the surplus emissions estimates in each of the RFP milestone
years, as shown in the 2018 SIP Update, and find that the calculations
are correct. We therefore agree that the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP
provides surplus emissions reductions well beyond those necessary to
demonstrate RFP in all of the RFP milestone years. While such surplus
emissions reductions in the RFP milestone years do not represent
contingency measures themselves, we believe they are relevant in
evaluating the adequacy of RFP contingency measures that are submitted
(or will be submitted) to meet the requirements of sections 172(c)(9)
and 182(c)(9).
In this case, the District and CARB have committed to develop,
adopt and submit a revised District rule or rules, or a new rule or
rules, as an RFP contingency measure within one year of our final
action on the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP. The specific types of
[[Page 28163]]
revisions the District has committed to make, such as increasing the
stringency of an existing requirement or removing an exemption, upon an
RPF milestone failure would comply with the requirements in CAA
sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) because they would be undertaken if
the area fails to meet an RFP milestone and would take effect without
significant further action by the state or the EPA.
Next, we considered the adequacy of the RFP contingency measure
(once adopted and submitted) from the standpoint of the magnitude of
emissions reductions the measure would provide (if triggered). Neither
the CAA nor the EPA's implementing regulations for the ozone NAAQS
establish a specific amount of emissions reductions that implementation
of contingency measures must achieve, but we generally expect that
contingency measures should provide for emissions reductions
approximately equivalent to one year's worth of RFP, which, for ozone,
amounts to reductions of 3 percent of the baseline emissions inventory
for the nonattainment area. For the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South
Coast, one year's worth of RFP is approximately 16 tpd of VOC or
NOX reductions.\152\
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\152\ The 2011 baseline for NOX and VOC is 534.3 tpd
and 522.0 tpd, respectively, as shown in tables IX-1 and IX-2 of the
2018 SIP Update. Three percent of the baselines is 16.0 tpd of
NOX and 15.7 tpd of VOC, respectively.
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In this instance, because of the nature of the District's intended
contingency measure (i.e., to modify an existing rule or rules to
increase the stringency or to remove an exemption), the District did
not quantify the potential additional emission reductions from its
contingency measure commitment, but we believe that it is unlikely that
the RFP contingency measure, once adopted and submitted, will achieve
one year's worth of RFP (i.e., 16.0 tpd of NOX or VOC) given
the types of rule revisions under consideration and the magnitude of
emissions reductions constituting one year's worth of RFP. However, the
2018 SIP Update provides the larger SIP planning context in which to
judge the adequacy of the to-be-submitted District contingency measure
by calculating the surplus emissions reductions estimated to be
achieved in the RFP milestone years. More specifically, Table IX-2 in
the 2018 SIP Update identified surplus NOX reductions in the
various RFP milestone years. For the South Coast, the estimates of
surplus NOX reductions vary for each RFP milestone year but
range from a minimum of 31.5 percent in milestone year 2017 to 47.2
percent in milestone year 2023.\153\ These represent values that far
eclipse one year's worth of RFP (approximately 16 tpd or 3 percent) and
that provide the basis to conclude that the risk of any failure to
achieve an RFP milestone for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast is
very low. The surplus reflects already implemented regulations and is
primarily the result of vehicle turnover, which refers to the ongoing
replacement by individuals, companies, and government agencies of
older, more polluting vehicles and engines with newer vehicles and
engines designed to meet more stringent CARB mobile source emission
standards. In light of the extent of surplus NOX emissions
reductions in the RFP milestone years, the emissions reductions from
the District contingency measure would be sufficient to meet the
contingency measure requirements of the CAA with respect to RFP
milestones, even though the measure would likely achieve emissions
reductions lower than the EPA normally recommends for reductions from
such a measure.
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\153\ 2018 SIP Update, Table IX-2.
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With respect to the attainment contingency measure requirement, we
are proposing to approve the attainment demonstration for the 2008
Ozone NAAQS in the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP that relies in part on
new technology provisions under CAA section 182(e)(5). In connection
with the proposed approval of the attainment demonstration, we are
proposing to approve CARB's commitment to develop, adopt and submit
contingency measures by 2028 (three years prior to the attainment year)
if new technology measures do not achieve planned reductions. CARB has
clarified that the commitment to submit contingency measures as
necessary to address shortfalls in emissions reductions from new
technology measures also includes a commitment to submit attainment
contingency measures.
The EPA allows states to submit, for Extreme areas, enforceable
commitments to develop and adopt contingency measures meeting the
requirements of section 182(e)(5) to satisfy the requirements for both
attainment contingency measures in CAA sections 172(c)(9) and
182(c)(9).\154\ We find that CARB's commitment, as clarified by CARB to
include attainment contingency measures, provides an adequate basis to
defer submittal of attainment contingency measures for the South Coast
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS until 2028.
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\154\ 80 FR 12264, at 12285-12286 (March 6, 2015)
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For the these reasons, we propose to approve conditionally the RFP
contingency measure element of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP as
supplemented by commitments from the District and CARB to adopt and
submit an additional contingency measure, to meet the RFP contingency
measure requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9). Our
proposed approval is conditional because it relies upon commitments to
adopt and submit a specific enforceable contingency measure (i.e., a
revised or new District rule or rules with contingent provisions).
Conditional approvals are authorized under CAA section 110(k)(4) of the
CAA. We also propose to find that CARB's commitment to submit
attainment contingency measures provides an adequate basis to defer
submittal of attainment contingency measures meeting the requirements
in CAA sections 172(c)(9) and 182(c)(9) until 2028.
H. Clean Fuels or Advanced Control Technology for Boilers
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
Section 182(e)(3) of the CAA provides that SIPs for Extreme
nonattainment areas require each new, modified, and existing electric
utility and industrial and commercial boiler that emits more than 25
tpy of NOX to either burn as its primary fuel natural gas,
methanol, or ethanol (or a comparably low-polluting fuel), or use
advanced control technology, such as catalytic control technologies or
other comparably effective control methods.
Additional guidance on this requirement is provided in the General
Preamble at 13523. In the General Preamble, the EPA states that, for
the purposes of CAA section 182(a)(3), a boiler should generally be
considered as any combustion equipment used to produce steam and
generally does not include a process heater that transfers heat from
combustion gases to process streams.\155\ In addition, boilers with
rated heat inputs less than 15 million British thermal units (MMBtu)
per hour that are oil- or gas-fired may generally be considered de
minimis and exempt from these requirements because it is unlikely that
they will exceed the 25 tpy NOX emission limit.\156\
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\155\ See General Preamble, 57 FR 13498 at 13523 (April 16,
1992).
\156\ Id at 13524.
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2. Summary of the State's Submission
The 2016 AQMP discusses compliance with the requirements of CAA
section 182(e)(3) by reference to
[[Page 28164]]
District Rules 2002 (``Allocations for Oxides of Nitrogen
(NOX) and Oxides of Sulfur (SOX)''), 1146
(``Emissions of Oxides of Nitrogen from Industrial, Institutional, and
Commercial Boilers, Steam Generators, and Process Heaters'') and 1303
(``Requirements'').\157\ In the 2016 AQMP, the District notes that,
under District Rule 1303, a new or modified boiler emitting at least 10
tpy of NOX or VOC is required to employ best available
control technology (BACT), which, under the District's rule, must be at
least as stringent as the lowest achievable emission rate (LAER) as
defined in CAA section 171(3).
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\157\ See tables 6-1 and 6-2 of chapter 6 of the 2016 AQMP.
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In February 2019, the District further clarified that, with respect
to sources subject to the District's Regulation XX (``Regional Clean
Air Incentives Market'' or ``RECLAIM''), compliance with CAA section
182(e)(3) is provided through District Rule 2004 (``Requirements''),
paragraph (h), which requires each new, modified and existing electric
utility and industrial and commercial boiler emitting more than 25 tpy
per year of NOX to burn clean fuel or use advanced control
technology.\158\
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\158\ See letter dated February 13, 2019, from Philip Fine,
Ph.D., Deputy Executive Officer, SCAQMD, to Elizabeth Adams,
Director, Air Division, EPA Region IX.
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The District's February 2019 letter also provided analysis
reviewing emission reports from boilers in its annual emissions
reporting system from 2015, 2016, and 2017. This analysis found that
there was only one unit emitting more than 25 tpy of NOX not
already meeting the clean fuel requirement: The Los Angeles County
Sanitation District Landfill in Puente Hills. This facility is subject
to NOX emissions limits in District Rule 1146.
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
Currently, within the South Coast, boilers that are subject to the
requirements of CAA section 182(e)(3) fall into two broad categories:
(1) Boilers that are subject to the District's RECLAIM regulation, and
(2) boilers that are not subject to RECLAIM. Boilers that are subject
to RECLAIM must comply with District Rule 2004, paragraph (h), that
sets forth requirements that essentially mirror those set forth in CAA
section 182(e)(3). Thus we agree with the District that Rule 2004(h)
satisfies the SIP requirement in CAA section 182(e)(3) with respect to
boilers included in the RECLAIM program. We most recently approved Rule
2004 into the SIP at 73 FR 38122 (July 3, 2008).
As to boilers that are not subject to RECLAIM, for the reasons
given below, we agree with the District that the requirements are met
through implementation of District Rule 1146 for existing boilers and
through implementation of District Regulation XIII (``New Source
Review''), specifically, Rule 1303, for new and modified boilers. We
approved District Rules 1146 and 1303 into the SIP at 79 FR 57442
(September 25, 2014) and 61 FR 64291 (December 4, 1996), respectively.
First, we have reviewed Rule 1146 and find that it applies to
boilers of equal to or greater than 5 MMBtu per hour heat rate input
capacity used in all industrial, institutional, and commercial
operations with the exception of RECLAIM facilities.\159\ That is, it
regulates large boilers in the South Coast not participating in the
RECLAIM program. Rule 1146 requires compliance with specified numeric
limits that are based on the type of unit, and it allows for combustion
of fuel that may not necessarily be natural gas, methanol, ethanol, or
other comparably low polluting fuel. The emission limits for these
other fuels, includes units fired on digester or landfill gas, are 15
ppm by volume and 25 ppm by volume, respectively. According to the
District's analysis as noted above, the only unit firing on these fuels
that also must comply with the requirements of CAA section 182(e)(3) is
the Los Angeles County Sanitation District Landfill in Puente Hills,
which combusts recovered landfill gas and must achieve the limits for
landfill gas-fired units as required in District Rule 1146.
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\159\ We note that the applicability section of Rule 1146 lists
certain categories of sources that are not subject to its
requirements in addition to RECLAIM facilities, such as boilers used
by electric utilities to generate electricity and large boilers used
in petroleum refineries. However, the types of boilers that are
categorically excepted by Rule 1146 are in fact included in the
RECLAIM program in the South Coast and thus are subject to Rule
2004(h), which provides for compliance with CAA section 182(e)(3).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Second, we have reviewed District Rule 1303 and find that it
provides for denial of a permit to construct for any new or modified
source that results in an emission increases of any nonattainment
pollutants unless BACT is employed for the new or modified source.\160\
The District defines BACT in essentially the same way as the CAA
section 171(3) defines LAER.\161\ District Rule 1303 thus ensures that
new or modified boilers in the South Coast that are not subject to
RECLAIM comply with the requirements in CAA section 182(e)(3).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\160\ District Rule 1303(a).
\161\ District Rule 1302 (``Definitions''), paragraph (f)
(``Best Available Control Technology'').
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For the reasons given above, we find that the requirements for new,
modified and existing boilers in approved District Rules 1303, 1146 and
2004 satisfy the clean fuel or advanced control technology for boilers
requirement in CAA section 182(e)(3), and based on this finding, we
propose to approve the clean fuels for boilers element of the 2016
South Coast Ozone SIP.
I. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
Section 176(c) of the CAA requires federal actions in nonattainment
and maintenance areas to conform to the SIP's goals of eliminating or
reducing the severity and number of violations of the NAAQS and
achieving timely attainment of the standards. Conformity to the SIP's
goals means that such actions will not: (1) Cause or contribute to
violations of a NAAQS, (2) worsen the severity of an existing
violation, or (3) delay timely attainment of any NAAQS or any interim
milestone.
Actions involving Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) or Federal
Transit Administration (FTA) funding or approval are subject to the
EPA's transportation conformity rule, codified at 40 CFR part 93,
subpart A. Under this rule, MPOs in nonattainment and maintenance areas
coordinate with state and local air quality and transportation
agencies, the EPA, the FHWA, and the FTA to demonstrate that an area's
regional transportation plans and transportation improvement programs
conform to the applicable SIP. This demonstration is typically done by
showing that estimated emissions from existing and planned highway and
transit systems are less than or equal to the motor vehicle emissions
budgets (MVEBs or ``budgets'') contained in all control strategy SIPs.
Budgets are generally established for specific years and specific
pollutants or precursors. Ozone plans should identify budgets for on-
road emissions of ozone precursors (NOX and VOC) in the area
for each RFP milestone year and the attainment year, if the plan
demonstrates attainment.\162\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\162\ 40 CFR 93.102(b)(2)(i).
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For budgets to be approvable, they must meet, at a minimum, the
EPA's adequacy criteria (40 CFR 93.118(e)(4)). To meet these
requirements, the budgets must be consistent with the attainment and
RFP requirements and reflect all of the motor vehicle control measures
[[Page 28165]]
contained in the attainment and RFP demonstrations.\163\
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\163\ 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4)(iii), (iv) and (v). For more
information on the transportation conformity requirements and
applicable policies on MVEBs, please visit our transportation
conformity website at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/stateresources/transconf/index.htm.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The EPA's process for determining adequacy of a budget consists of
three basic steps: (1) Providing public notification of a SIP
submission; (2) providing the public the opportunity to comment on the
budget during a public comment period; and, (3) making a finding of
adequacy or inadequacy.\164\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\164\ 40 CFR 93.118(f)(2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. Summary of the State's Submission
The 2016 AQMP included budgets for the 2018, 2021, 2024, 2027, and
2030 RFP milestone years, and the 2031 attainment year. The budgets for
2018, 2021, 2024, 2027 and 2030 were derived from the 2012 RFP baseline
year and the associated RFP milestone years. As such, the budgets are
affected by the South Coast II decision vacating the alternative
baseline year provision, and therefore, the EPA has not previously
acted on the budgets.
On December 5, 2018, CARB submitted the 2018 SIP Update, which
revises the RFP demonstration consistent with the South Coast II
decision (i.e., by using a 2011 RFP baseline year) and identifies new
budgets for the South Coast for VOC and NOX for each updated
RFP milestone year through 2030 and for the attainment year, 2031. The
budgets in this 2018 SIP Update replace all of the budgets contained in
the 2016 AQMP.
Like the budgets in the 2016 AQMP, the budgets in the 2018 SIP
Update were calculated using EMFAC2014, CARB's latest approved version
of the EMFAC model for estimating emissions from on-road vehicles
operating in California, and are rounded up to the nearest whole
number. However, the budgets in the 2018 SIP Update reflect updated VMT
estimates from the 2016-2040 Regional Transportation Plan/Sustainable
Communities Strategy, Amendment 2, adopted by SCAG in July 2017. Given
the use of updated travel data and CARB's convention of rounding
emissions up to the nearest whole number, there are some differences
between the budgets and the emissions inventories in the 2018 SIP
Update for the RFP demonstration and in the 2016 AQMP for the
attainment demonstration, but the differences are quite small and do
not impact the RFP or attainment demonstrations.\165\ The conformity
budgets for NOX and VOC in the 2018 SIP Update for the South
Coast are provided in Table 15 below.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\165\ For instance, the 2016 AQMP estimates that 2031 on-road
vehicle emissions (summer planning inventory) would be 49.50 tpd for
VOC and 64.99 tpd for NOX. See attachment B to appendix
III of the 2016 AQMP. The corresponding budgets from the 2018 SIP
Update are 50 tpd for VOC and 66 tpd for NOX.
Table 15--Transportation Conformity Budgets for the 2008 Ozone NAAQS in
the South Coast
[Summer planning inventory, tpd]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Budget year VOC NOX
------------------------------------------------------------------------
2020 80 141
2023 68 89
2026 60 77
2029 54 69
2031 50 66
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Table IX-3 of the 2018 SIP Update.
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
As part of our review of the approvability of the budgets in the
2018 SIP Update, we have evaluated the budgets using our adequacy
criteria in 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4) and (5). We will complete the adequacy
review concurrent with our final action on the 2016 South Coast Ozone
SIP. The EPA is not required under its transportation conformity rule
to find budgets adequate prior to proposing approval of them.\166\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\166\ Under the transportation conformity regulations, the EPA
may review the adequacy of submitted motor vehicle emission budgets
simultaneously with the EPA's approval or disapproval of the
submitted implementation plan. 40 CFR 93.118(f)(2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
As documented in Table 4 of section IV of the EPA's TSD for this
proposal, we find that the budgets in the 2018 SIP Update for the South
Coast meet each adequacy criterion. We have completed our detailed
review of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP and are proposing herein to
approve the SIP's attainment and RFP demonstrations. We have also
reviewed the budgets in the 2018 SIP Update and found that they are
consistent with the attainment and RFP demonstrations for which we are
proposing approval, are based on control measures that have already
been adopted and implemented, and meet all other applicable statutory
and regulatory requirements including the adequacy criteria in 40 CFR
93.1118(e)(4) and (5). Therefore, we are proposing to find adequate and
approve the 2020, 2023, 2026, 2029 and 2031 MVEBs in the 2018 SIP
Update (and shown in Table 15, above). If we finalize our adequacy
determination and approval of the budgets for the 2008 ozone NAAQS in
the 2018 SIP Update, as proposed, then they will replace the budgets
for the 1997 ozone NAAQS from the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP that we
previously found adequate and approved for use in transportation
conformity determinations.\167\
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\167\ We found adequate and approved the MVEBs from the 2007
South Coast Ozone SIP for the 1997 ozone NAAQS at 77 FR 12674, 12693
(March 1, 2012). The MVEBs in the 2018 SIP Update for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS are lower than the corresponding MVEBs approved for the 1997
ozone NAAQS. For instance, the current MVEBs of 108 tpd for VOC and
185 tpd for NOX for 2020, and 99 tpd of VOC and 140 tpd
of NOX for 2023, would be replaced by MVEBs of 80 tpd for
VOC and 141 tpd for NOX in 2020, and 68 tpd for VOC and
89 tpd for NOX in 2023.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
Under our transportation conformity rule, as a general matter, once
budgets are approved, they cannot be superseded by revised budgets
submitted for the same CAA purpose and the same period of years
addressed by the previously approved SIP until the EPA approves the
revised budgets as a SIP revision. In other words, as a general matter,
such approved budgets cannot be superseded by revised budgets found
adequate, but rather only through approval of the revised budgets,
unless the EPA specifies otherwise in its approval of a SIP by limiting
the duration of the approval to last only until subsequently submitted
budgets are found adequate.\168\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\168\ 40 CFR 93.118(e)(1).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
In this instance, CARB has requested that we limit the duration of
our approval of the budgets in the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP only
until the effective date of the EPA's adequacy finding for any
subsequently submitted budgets.\169\ Generally, we will consider a
state's request to limit an approval of a MVEB only if the request
includes the following elements: \170\
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\169\ CARB's request to limit the duration of the approval of
the South Coast ozone MVEB is contained in letters dated December 5,
2018, from Richard Corey, Executive Officer, California Air
Resources Board, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA Region
IX, and May 20, 2019, from Michael Benjamin, California Air
Resources Board, to Amy Zimpfer, EPA Region IX.
\170\ 67 FR 69141 (November 15, 2002), limiting our prior
approval of MVEB in certain California SIPs.
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An acknowledgement and explanation as to why the budgets
under consideration have become outdated or deficient;
A commitment to update the budgets as part of a
comprehensive SIP update; and
A request that the EPA limit the duration of its approval
to the time when new budgets have been found to be adequate for
transportation conformity purposes.
CARB's request includes an explanation for why the budgets have
[[Page 28166]]
become, or will become, outdated or deficient. In short, CARB has
requested that we limit the duration of the approval of the budgets in
anticipation, in the near term, of approval by the EPA of EMFAC2017, an
updated version of the model used for the budgets in the 2016 South
Coast Ozone SIP. EMFAC2017 updates vehicle mix and emissions data of
the currently approved version of the model, EMFAC2014.
Preliminary calculations by CARB indicate that EMFAC2017-derived
budgets for the South Coast will exceed the corresponding EMFAC2014-
derived budgets in the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP. Upon approval of
EMFAC2017, CARB explains that the budgets from the 2016 South Coast
Ozone SIP, for which we are proposing approval in today's action, will
become outdated and will need to be revised using EMFAC2017 within the
grace period established in our approval of EMFAC2017 to provide for a
new conformity determination for the South Coast regional
transportation plan and program. In addition, CARB states that, without
the ability to replace the budgets using the budget adequacy process,
the benefits of using the updated data may not be realized for a year
or more after the updated SIP (with the EMFAC2017-derived budgets) is
submitted, due to the length of the SIP approval process. We find that
CARB's explanation for limiting the duration of the approval of the
budgets is appropriate and provides us with a reasonable basis on which
to limit the duration of the approval of the budgets.
We note that CARB has not committed to update the budgets as part
of a comprehensive SIP update, but as a practical matter, CARB must
submit a SIP revision that includes updated demonstrations as well as
the updated budgets to meet the adequacy criteria in 40 CFR
93.118(e)(4);\171\ and thus, we do not need a specific commitment for
such a plan at this time. For the reasons provided above, and in light
of CARB's explanation for why the budgets will become outdated and
should be replaced upon an adequacy finding for updated budgets, we
propose to limit the duration of our approval of the budgets in the
2016 South Coast Ozone SIP until new budgets have been found adequate.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\171\ Under 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4), the EPA will not find a budget
in a submitted SIP to be adequate unless, among other criteria, the
budgets, when considered together with all other emissions sources,
are consistent with applicable requirements for RFP and attainment.
40 CFR 93.118(e)(4)(iv).
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J. General Conformity Budgets
1. Statutory and Regulatory Requirements
Section 176(c) of the CAA requires federal actions in nonattainment
and maintenance areas to conform to the SIP's goals of eliminating or
reducing the severity and number of violations of the NAAQS and
achieving timely attainment of the standards. Conformity to the SIP's
goals means that such actions will not: (1) Cause or contribute to
violations of a NAAQS, (2) worsen the severity of an existing
violation, or (3) delay timely attainment of any NAAQS or any interim
milestone.
Section 176(c)(4) of the CAA establishes the framework for general
conformity. The EPA first promulgated general conformity regulations in
November 1993.\172\ The EPA revised the general conformity regulations
on April 5, 2010 (75 FR 17254). The general conformity regulations
ensure that federal actions not covered by the transportation
conformity rule will not interfere with the SIP and encourage
consultation between the federal agency and the state or local air
pollution control agencies before or during the environmental review
process, as well as public participation (e.g., notification of and
access to federal agency conformity determinations and review of
individual federal actions).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
\172\ 40 CFR part 51, subpart W, and 40 CFR part 93, subpart B.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The general conformity regulations provide three phases:
Applicability analysis, conformity determination, and review process.
The applicability analysis phase under 40 CFR 93.153 is used to find if
a federal action requires a conformity determination for a specific
pollutant. If a conformity determination is needed, federal agencies
can use one of several methods to show that the project conforms to the
SIP. In an area without a SIP, a federal action may be shown to
``conform'' by demonstrating there will be no net increase in emissions
in the nonattainment or maintenance area from the federal action. In an
area with a SIP, conformity to the applicable SIP can be demonstrated
in one of several ways. For actions where the direct and indirect
emissions exceed the rates in 40 CFR 93.153(b), the federal action can
include mitigation measures to offset the emission increases from the
federal action or can show that the action will conform by meeting any
of the following requirements:
Showing that the net emission increases caused by an
action are included in the SIP,
documenting that the state agrees to include the emission
increases in the SIP,
offsetting the action's emissions in the same or nearby
area of equal or greater classification, or
providing an air quality modeling demonstration in some
circumstances.\173\
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\173\ 40 CFR 93.158; and SCAQMD Rule 1901 (``General
Conformity''), approved at 64 FR 19916 (April 23, 1999).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
The general conformity regulations at 40 CFR 93.161 allow state and
local air quality agencies working with federal agencies with large
facilities (e.g., commercial airports, ports, and large military bases)
that are subject to the general conformity regulations to develop and
adopt an emissions budget for those facilities in order to facilitate
future conformity determinations. Such a budget, referred to as a
facility-wide emission budget, may be used by federal agencies to
demonstrate conformity as long as the total facility-wide budget level
identified in the SIP is not exceeded.
According to 40 CFR 93.161, the state or local agency responsible
for implementing and enforcing the SIP can develop and adopt an
emissions budget to be used for demonstrating conformity under 40 CFR
93.158(a)(1). The requirements include the following: (1) The facility-
wide budget must be for a set time period; (2) the budget must cover
the pollutants or precursors of the pollutants for which the area is
designated nonattainment or maintenance; (3) the budgets must be
specific about what can be emitted on an annual or seasonal basis; (4)
the emissions from the facility along with all other emissions in the
area must not exceed the total SIP emissions budget for the
nonattainment or maintenance area; (5) specific measures must be
included to ensure compliance with the facility-wide budget, such as
periodic reporting requirements or compliance demonstrations when the
federal agency is taking an action that would otherwise require a
conformity determination; (6) the budget must be submitted to the EPA
as a SIP revision; and (7) the SIP revision must be approved by the
EPA. Having or using a facility-wide emissions budget does not preclude
a federal agency from demonstrating conformity in any other manner
allowed by the conformity rule.
2. Summary of the State's Submission
The 2016 AQMP addresses general conformity budgets beginning on
page VI-D-1 of Appendix VI and on pages III-2-85 through II-2-88 of
Appendix
[[Page 28167]]
III. To streamline the general conformity process for federal projects
and to facilitate general conformity determinations, the 2016 AQMP
establishes VOC and NOX general conformity budgets of 2.0
tpd of NOX and 0.5 tpd of VOC on an annual basis from 2017
to 2030, and budgets of 0.5 tpd of NOX and 0.2 tpd VOC in
2031. These general conformity budgets are included in the ``set-
aside'' account added to baseline emissions in tables 9, 10 and 11 in
section III.D.2.c of this document. The general conformity budgets in
the 2016 AQMP are not set aside for specific facilities per se but were
developed in the anticipation of the construction and operation of
certain airport development projects in the South Coast that are
expected over the next decade.
Under the 2016 AQMP, emissions from general conformity projects
will be tracked by the District tracking system and debited from this
set-aside budget on a first-come-first-served basis until the budget
has been exhausted. Any unused portions will not be carried forward
into the following year. Once the budget is exhausted, federal projects
can still demonstrate conformity using other provisions in the
conformity rule.
3. The EPA's Review of the State's Submission
We propose to approve the general conformity budgets in the 2016
AQMP of NOX and VOC of 2.0 tpd of NOX and 0.5 tpd
of VOC (on an annual basis) from 2017 to 2030, and 0.5 tpd of
NOX and 0.2 tpd VOC in 2031, as meeting the requirements of
CAA section 176(c) and 40 CFR 93.161. We find that the general
conformity budgets in the 2016 AQMP: Are established for set time
period; cover both precursors of ozone; are precisely quantified in
terms of tpd (on an annual basis); and, along with all other emissions
in the South Coast, are consistent with the attainment demonstrations
for the 1-hour, 1997 and 2008 ozone NAAQS. We also find that the 2016
AQMP provides a procedure (i.e., the tracking system) through which the
District will ensure compliance with the budgets.
If we finalize our approval of these budgets, federal agencies can
use these budgets to demonstrate that their projects conform to the SIP
through a letter from the State and District confirming that the
project emissions are accounted for in the SIP's general conformity
budgets. The District will be responsible for tracking emissions from
all projects against the budgets. Once the budgets are used, future
federal projects will need to demonstrate conformity using a different
method. Any federal projects that emit criteria pollutants or pollutant
precursors other than those for which general conformity budgets are
established will still need to demonstrate conformity for those
pollutants or precursors.
K. Other Clean Air Act Requirements Applicable to Extreme Ozone
Nonattainment Areas
In addition to the SIP requirements discussed in the previous
sections, the CAA includes certain other SIP requirements applicable to
Extreme ozone nonattainment areas, such as the South Coast. We describe
these provisions and their current status below.
1. Enhanced Vehicle Inspection and Maintenance Programs
Section 182(c)(3) of the CAA requires states with ozone
nonattainment areas classified under subpart 2 as Serious or above to
implement an enhanced motor vehicle I/M program in those areas. The
requirements for those programs are provided in CAA section 182(c)(3)
and 40 CFR part 51, subpart S.
Consistent with the 2008 Ozone SRR, no new I/M programs are
currently required for nonattainment areas for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS.\174\ The EPA previously approved California's I/M program in the
South Coast as meeting the requirements of the CAA and applicable EPA
regulations for enhanced I/M programs.\175\
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\174\ 2008 Ozone SRR, 80 FR 12264, at 12283 (March 6, 2015), and
section 3.6 of Chapter 3 of the 2016 Ozone Plan.
\175\ 75 FR 38023 (July 1, 2010).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
2. New Source Review Rules
Section 182(a)(2)(C) of the CAA requires states to develop SIP
revisions containing permit programs for each of its ozone
nonattainment areas. The SIP revisions are to include requirements for
permits in accordance with CAA sections 172(c)(5) and 173 for the
construction and operation of each new or modified major stationary
source for VOC and NOX anywhere in the nonattainment
area.\176\ The 2008 Ozone SRR includes provisions and guidance for
nonattainment new source review (NSR) programs.\177\ The EPA has
previously approved the District's NSR rules into the SIP based in part
on a conclusion that the rules adequately addressed the NSR
requirements specific to Extreme areas.\178\ On December 13, 2018, the
EPA approved the District's 2008 ozone certification that its NSR
program previously approved into the SIP is adequate to meet the
requirements for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.\179\
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\176\ See also CAA sections 182(e).
\177\ 80 FR 12264 (March 6, 2015).
\178\ On December 4, 1996 (61 FR 64291), the EPA approved
SCAQMD's NSR rules (the District's Regulation XIII) for the South
Coast as satisfying the NSR requirements in title I, part D of the
CAA for Extreme ozone nonattainment areas. See also 64 FR 13514
(March 19, 1999), 71 FR 35157 (June 19, 2006), 77 FR 31200 (May 25,
2012), and 80 FR 24821 (May 1, 2015).
\179\ 83 FR 64026 (December 13, 2018).
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3. Clean Fuels Fleet Program
Sections 182(c)(4)(A) and 246 of the CAA require California to
submit to the EPA for approval measures to implement a Clean Fuels
Fleet Program. Section 182(c)(4)(B) of the CAA allows states to opt-out
of the federal clean-fuel vehicle fleet program by submitting a SIP
revision consisting of a program or programs that will result in at
least equivalent long-term reductions in ozone precursors and toxic air
emissions.
In 1994, CARB submitted a SIP revision to the EPA to opt-out of the
federal clean-fuel fleet program. The submittal included a
demonstration that California's low-emissions vehicle program achieved
emissions reductions at least as large as would be achieved by the
federal program. The EPA approved the SIP revision to opt-out of the
federal program on August 27, 1999.\180\ There have been no changes to
the federal Clean Fuels Fleet program since the EPA approved the
California SIP revision to opt-out of the federal program, and thus, no
corresponding changes to the SIP are required. Thus, we find that the
California SIP revision to opt-out of the federal program, as approved
in 1999, meets the requirements of CAA sections 182(c)(4)(A) and 246
for South Coast for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
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\180\ 64 FR 46849 (August 27, 1999).
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4. Gasoline Vapor Recovery
Section 182(b)(3) of the CAA requires states to submit a SIP
revision by November 15, 1992, that requires owners or operators of
gasoline dispensing systems to install and operate gasoline vehicle
refueling vapor recovery (``Stage II'') systems in ozone nonattainment
areas classified as Moderate and above. California's ozone
nonattainment areas implemented Stage II vapor recovery well before the
passage of the CAA Amendments of 1990.\181\
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\181\ General Preamble, 57 FR 13498 at 13514 (April 16, 1992).
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Section 202(a)(6) of the CAA requires the EPA to promulgate
standards requiring motor vehicles to be equipped with onboard
refueling vapor recovery (ORVR) systems. The EPA promulgated
[[Page 28168]]
the first set of ORVR system regulations in 1994 for phased
implementation on vehicle manufacturers, and since the end of 2006,
essentially all new gasoline-powered light and medium-duty vehicles are
ORVR-equipped.\182\ Section 202(a)(6) also authorizes the EPA to waive
the SIP requirement under CAA section 182(b)(3) for installation of
Stage II vapor recovery systems after such time as the EPA determines
that ORVR systems are in widespread use throughout the motor vehicle
fleet. Effective May 16, 2012, the EPA waived the requirement of CAA
section 182(b)(3) for Stage II vapor recovery systems in ozone
nonattainment areas regardless of classification.\183\ Thus, a SIP
submittal meeting CAA section 182(b)(3) is not required for the 2008
ozone NAAQS.
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\182\ 77 FR 28772, at 28774 (May 16, 2012).
\183\ See 40 CFR 51.126(b).
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While a SIP submittal meeting CAA section 182(b)(3) is not required
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS, under California State law (i.e., Health and
Safety Code section 41954), CARB is required to adopt procedures and
performance standards for controlling gasoline emissions from gasoline
marketing operations, including transfer and storage operations. State
law also authorizes CARB, in cooperation with local air districts, to
certify vapor recovery systems, to identify defective equipment and to
develop test methods. CARB has adopted numerous revisions to its vapor
recovery program regulations and continues to rely on its vapor
recovery program to achieve emissions reductions in ozone nonattainment
areas in California.
In the South Coast, the installation and operation of CARB-
certified vapor recovery equipment is required and enforced by SCAQMD
Rules 461 (``Gasoline Transfer and Dispensing'') and 462 (``Organic
Liquid Loading''). These rules were most recently approved into the SIP
on April 11, 2013, and July 21, 1999, respectively.\184\
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\184\ 78 FR 21542 and 64 FR 39037.
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5. Enhanced Ambient Air Monitoring
Section 182(c)(1) of the CAA requires that all ozone nonattainment
areas classified as Serious or above implement measures to enhance and
improve monitoring for ambient concentrations of ozone, NOX,
and VOC, and to improve monitoring of emissions of NOX and
VOC. The enhanced monitoring network for ozone is referred to as the
photochemical assessment monitoring station (PAMS) network. The EPA
promulgated final PAMS regulations on February 12, 1993.\185\
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\185\ 58 FR 8452 (February 12, 1993).
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On November 10, 1993, CARB submitted to the EPA a SIP revision
addressing the PAMS network for six ozone nonattainment areas in
California, including the South Coast, to meet the enhanced monitoring
requirements of CAA section 182(c)(1) and the PAMS regulations. The EPA
determined that the PAMS SIP revision met all applicable requirements
for enhanced monitoring and approved the PAMS submittal into the
California SIP.\186\
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\186\ 82 FR 45191 (September 28, 2017).
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The 2016 AQMP discusses compliance with the CAA section 182(c)(1)
enhanced monitoring requirements in terms of the District's ``Annual
Air Quality Monitoring Network Plan (July 2016)'' (ANP).\187\ The
District's 2016 ANP describes the steps taken to address the
requirements of section 182(c)(1), includes descriptions of the PAMS
program and provides additional details about the PAMS network.\188\
The EPA has approved the District's PAMS network as part of our annual
approval of the District's ANP.\189\
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\187\ 2016 AQMP, Table 6-2, page 6-17.
\188\ 2016 ANP, 13-15, 28 and appendix A, 8. Starting in 2007,
the EPA's monitoring rules at 71 FR 61236 (October 17, 2006)
required the submittal and EPA action on ANPs. SCAQMD's 2016 ANP can
be found in the docket for today's action.
\189\ Letter dated October 31, 2016, from Gwen Yoshimura, EPA
Region IX to Matt Miyasoto, Deputy Executive Officer, SCAQMD,
approving the 2016 South Coast ANP.
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Prior to 2006, the EPA's ambient air monitoring regulations in 40
CFR part 58 (``Ambient Air Quality Surveillance'') set forth specific
SIP requirements (see former 40 CFR 52.20). In 2006, the EPA
significantly revised and reorganized 40 CFR part 58.\190\ Under
revised 40 CFR part 58, SIP revisions are no longer required; rather,
compliance with EPA monitoring regulations is established through
review of required annual monitoring network plans.\191\ The 2008 Ozone
SRR made no changes to these requirements.\192\ As such, based on our
review and approval of the 2016 ANP for South Coast, we find that the
2016 AQMP adequately addresses the enhanced monitoring requirements
under CAA section 182(c)(1), and we propose to approve that portion of
the plan.
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\190\ 71 FR 61236 (October 17, 2006).
\191\ 40 CFR 58.2(b) now provides ``The requirements pertaining
to provisions for an air quality surveillance system in the SIP are
contained in this part.''
\192\ The 2008 ozone SRR addresses PAMS-related requirements at
80 FR 12264, at 12291 (March 6, 2015).
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6. CAA Section 185 Fee Program
Sections 182(d)(3) and 185 of the CAA require that the SIP for each
Severe and Extreme ozone nonattainment area provide that, if the area
fails to attain by its applicable attainment date, each major
stationary source of VOC and NOX located in the area shall
pay a fee to the state as a penalty for such failure for each calendar
year beginning after the attainment date, until the area is
redesignated as an attainment area for ozone. States are not yet
required to submit a SIP revision that meets the requirements of CAA
section 185 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.\193\
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\193\ See 40 CFR 51.1117. For the South Coast, a section 185 SIP
revision for the 2008 ozone NAAQS will be due on July 20, 2022.
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IV. Proposed Action
For the reasons discussed in this notice, under CAA section
110(k)(3), the EPA is proposing to approve as a revision to the
California SIP the following portions of the 2016 South Coast Ozone SIP
submitted by CARB on April 27, 2017, December 5, 2018, and December 20,
2018:
Base year emissions inventory element in the 2016 AQMP as
meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(3) and 182(a)(1) and 40
CFR 51.1115 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS;
RACM demonstration element in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the
requirements of CAA section 172(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1112(c) for the
2008 ozone NAAQS;
Updated attainment demonstration element for the revoked
1-hour ozone NAAQS in the 2016 AQMP and the 1-Hour Ozone Update as
meeting the requirements of CAA section 182(c)(2)(A); \194\
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\194\ Because the 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration in the
1-Hour Ozone Update does not rely on advanced control technology
measures under CAA section 182(e)(5), final approval of the
attainment demonstration in the 1-Hour Ozone Update would fulfill
CARB's commitment, in adopting the 2012 AQMP, to achieve by January
1, 2022, aggregate emissions reductions from advanced control
technology measures under CAA section 182(e)(5) or actual emission
decreases that occur and to develop, adopt and submit contingency
measures by 2019 if advanced control technology measures do not
achieve planned reductions.
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Updated attainment demonstration element for the revoked
1997 ozone NAAQS in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the requirements of CAA
section 182(c)(2)(A);
Attainment demonstration element for the 2008 ozone NAAQS
in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the requirements of CAA section
182(c)(2)(A) and 40 CFR 51.1108;
[[Page 28169]]
SCAQMD's commitments in the 2016 AQMP and District
Resolution 17-2 to adopt, submit, and implement certain defined
measures, as listed in tables 4-2 and 4-4 of Chapter 4 in the 2016
AQMP, and to achieve specific aggregate emission reductions (shown in
tables 4-9 through 4-11 of the 2016 AQMP) by 2022, 2023 and 2031 for
the 1-hour ozone NAAQS, 1997 ozone NAAQS and 2008 ozone NAAQS,
respectively, and to substitute any other measures as necessary to make
up any emission reduction shortfall; \195\
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\195\ Final approval of SCAQMD's commitments in the 2016 AQMP
would update the corresponding commitments made by the District in
the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP for the 1997 ozone NAAQS and in the
2012 AQMP for both the 1997 ozone NAAQS and the 1-hour ozone NAAQS.
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CARB's commitments in the 2016 State Strategy and CARB
Resolution 17-7 to bring to the CARB Board for consideration the list
of proposed SIP measures outlined in the 2016 State Strategy and
included in attachment A (to Resolution 17-7) according the schedule
set forth in attachment A, and to achieve the aggregate emission
reductions in the South Coast of 113 tpd of NOX and 50 to 51
tpd of VOC by 2023 for the 1997 ozone NAAQS, and 111 tpd of
NOX and 59 to 60 tpd of VOC by 2031 for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS; \196\
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\196\ Final approval of CARB's commitments in the 2016 State
Strategy for the South Coast would update the corresponding
commitments by CARB in the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP for the 1997
ozone NAAQS.
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The provisions in the 2016 State Strategy for the
development of new technology measures for attainment of the 1997 ozone
NAAQS and 2008 ozone NAAQS in the South Coast pursuant to CAA section
182(e)(5) and CARB's commitment in Resolution 17-8 to adopt and submit
by 2028 contingency measures to be implemented if the new technology
measures do not achieve the planned emissions reductions for the 2008
ozone NAAQS, as well as additional attainment contingency measures
meeting the requirements of CAA section 172(c)(9); \197\
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\197\ For the purposes of the 2007 South Coast Ozone SIP, CARB
committed to develop, adopt and submit by 2020 contingency measures
to be implemented if the new technologies do not achieve the planned
emissions reductions for the 1997 ozone NAAQS, as well as additional
attainment contingency measures meeting the requirements of CAA
section 172(c)(9). The EPA approved that commitment at 77 FR 12674,
12695 (March 1, 2012). CARB's pre-existing commitments with respect
to section 182(e)(5) and section 172(c)(9) attainment contingency
measures for the South Coast for the 1997 ozone NAAQS are not
affected by today's proposed action on the 2016 South Coast Ozone
SIP.
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ROP demonstration element in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the
requirements of CAA 182(b)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(2) for the 2008
ozone NAAQS;
RFP demonstration element in the 2018 SIP Update as
meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(2), 182(b)(1), and
182(c)(2)(B), and 40 CFR 51.1110(a)(2)(ii) for the 2008 ozone NAAQS;
VMT emissions offset demonstration element in the 2016
AQMP as meeting the requirements of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) and 40 CFR
51.1102 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS;
Clean fuels or advanced control technology for boilers
element in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the requirements of CAA section
182(e)(3) and 40 CFR 51.1102 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS;
Motor vehicle emissions budgets in the 2018 SIP Update for
the RFP milestone years of 2020, 2023, 2026, 2029, and the attainment
year of 2031 (see Table 15) because they are consistent with the RFP
and attainment demonstrations for the 2008 ozone NAAQS proposed for
approval herein and meet the other criteria in 40 CFR 93.118(e);
General conformity budgets of NOX and VOC of
2.0 tpd of NOX and 0.5 tpd of VOC (on an annual basis) from
2017 to 2030, and 0.5 tpd of NOX and 0.2 tpd VOC in 2031, as
meeting the requirements of CAA section 176(c) and 40 CFR 93.161;
Enhanced vehicle inspection and maintenance program
element in the 2016 AQMP as meeting the requirements of CAA section
182(c)(3) and 40 CFR 51.1102 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS;
Clean fuels fleet program element in the 2016 AQMP as
meeting the requirements of CAA sections 182(c)(4)(A) and 246 and 40
CFR 51.1102 for the 2008 ozone NAAQS; and
Enhanced monitoring element in the 2016 AQMP as meeting
the requirements of CAA section 182(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1102 for the
2008 ozone NAAQS.\198\
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\198\ Regarding other applicable requirements for the 2008 ozone
NAAQS in the South Coast, the EPA has previously approved SIP
revisions that address the nonattainment area requirements for NSR
and for implementation of RACT for the South Coast for the 2008
ozone NAAQS. See 83 FR 64026 (December 13, 2018) (NSR) and 82 FR
43850 (September 20, 2017) (RACT). SIP revisions for the South Coast
addressing the penalty fee requirements under CAA sections 181(d)(4)
and 185 are not yet due for the 2008 ozone NAAQS.
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With respect to the MVEBs, we are proposing to limit the duration
of the approval of the MVEBs to last only until the effective date of
the EPA's adequacy finding for any subsequently submitted budgets. We
are doing so at CARB's request and in light of the benefits of using
EMFAC2017-derived budgets prior to our taking final action on the
future SIP revision that includes the updated budgets.
We are also proposing, under CAA section 110(k)(3), to approve
District Rule 301 (``Permitting and Associated Fees'') (paragraphs
(e)(1)(A) and (B), (e)(2), (e)(5) and (e)(8)) based on the public draft
version submitted to us on May 20, 2019, for parallel processing, as
meeting the requirements of CAA section 182(a)(3)(B) and 40 CFR 51.1102
for the 2008 ozone NAAQS; and
Lastly, we are proposing, under CAA section 110(k)(4), to approve
conditionally the contingency measure element of the 2016 South Coast
Ozone SIP as meeting the requirements of CAA sections 172(c)(9) and
182(c)(9) for RFP contingency measures. Our proposed approval is based
on commitments by the District and CARB to supplement the element
through submission, as a SIP revision (within one year of final
conditional approval action), of a new or revised District rule or
rules that would include a more stringent requirement or would remove
an exemption if an RFP milestone is not met.\199\
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\199\ Letter dated January 29, 2019, from Wayne Nastri, SCAQMD
Executive Officer, to Richard Corey, CARB Executive Officer; and
letter dated February 13, 2019, from Richard Corey, Executive
Officer, CARB, to Mike Stoker, Regional Administrator, EPA Region
IX. Also see letter dated May 2, 2019, from Wayne Nastri, SCAQMD
Executive Officer, to Richard Corey, CARB Executive Officer; and
letter dated May 20, 2019, from Michael Benjamin, CARB, to Amy
Zimpfer, EPA Region IX.
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The EPA is soliciting public comments on the issues discussed in
this document. We will accept comments from the public on this proposal
for the next 30 days and will consider comments before taking final
action. With respect to District Rule 301 (paragraphs (e)(1)(A) and
(B), (e)(2), (e)(5) and (e)(8)), in addition to consideration of public
comments, we will not take final action until the District completes
its public review and adoption process and until CARB submits the final
adopted version of the relevant portions of the District rule to the
EPA for approval as a revision to the California SIP.
V. Incorporation by Reference
In this action, the EPA is proposing to include in a final EPA rule
regulatory text that includes incorporation by reference. In accordance
with requirements of 1 CFR 51.5, the EPA is proposing to incorporate by
reference portions of District Rule 301 regarding emissions statement
requirements discussed in section III.B of this
[[Page 28170]]
preamble. The EPA has made, and will continue to make, these materials
available through www.regulations.gov and at the EPA Region IX Office
(please contact the person identified in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION
CONTACT section of this preamble for more information).
VI. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews
Under the Clean Air Act, the Administrator is required to approve a
SIP submission that complies with the provisions of the Act and
applicable federal regulations. 42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 52.02(a).
Thus, in reviewing SIP submissions, the EPA's role is to approve state
choices, provided that they meet the criteria of the Clean Air Act.
Accordingly, this proposed action merely proposes to approve, or
conditionally approve, state plans as meeting federal requirements and
does not impose additional requirements beyond those imposed by state
law. For that reason, this proposed action:
Is not a ``significant regulatory action'' subject to
review by the Office of Management and Budget under Executive Orders
12866 (58 FR 51735, October 4, 1993) and 13563 (76 FR 3821, January 21,
2011);
Is not an Executive Order 13771 (82 FR 9339, February 2,
2017) regulatory action because SIP approvals are exempted under
Executive Order 12866;
Does not impose an information collection burden under the
provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.);
Is certified as not having a significant economic impact
on a substantial number of small entities under the Regulatory
Flexibility Act (5 U.S.C. 601 et seq.);
Does not contain any unfunded mandate or significantly or
uniquely affect small governments, as described in the Unfunded
Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (Pub. L. 104-4);
Does not have Federalism implications as specified in
Executive Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, August 10, 1999);
Is not an economically significant regulatory action based
on health or safety risks subject to Executive Order 13045 (62 FR
19885, April 23, 1997);
Is not a significant regulatory action subject to
Executive Order 13211 (66 FR 28355, May 22, 2001);
Is not subject to requirements of Section 12(d) of the
National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act of 1995 (15 U.S.C. 272
note) because application of those requirements would be inconsistent
with the Clean Air Act; and
Does not provide the EPA with the discretionary authority
to address disproportionate human health or environmental effects with
practical, appropriate, and legally permissible methods under Executive
Order 12898 (59 FR 7629, February 16, 1994).
In addition, the SIP is not approved to apply on any Indian
reservation land or in any other area where the EPA or an Indian tribe
has demonstrated that a tribe has jurisdiction. In those areas of
Indian country, the proposed rule does not have tribal implications and
will not impose substantial direct costs on tribal governments or
preempt tribal law as specified by Executive Order 13175 (65 FR 67249,
November 9, 2000).
List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52
Environmental protection, Air pollution control, Incorporation by
reference, Intergovernmental relations, Nitrogen dioxide, Ozone,
Reporting and recordkeeping requirements, Volatile organic compounds.
Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.
Dated: May 22, 2019.
Michael Stoker,
Regional Administrator, Region IX.
[FR Doc. 2019-12176 Filed 6-14-19; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560-50-P