[Federal Register Volume 80, Number 249 (Tuesday, December 29, 2015)]
[Notices]
[Pages 81300-81303]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2015-32590]


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DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY


Macroeconomic Impacts of LNG Exports Studies

AGENCY: Office of Fossil Energy, Department of Energy.

ACTION: Notice of availability of the 2014 EIA LNG Export Study and the 
2015 LNG Export Study, and request for comments.

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Lake Charles Exports, LLC..............  [FE Docket No. 11-59-LNG].
Gulf Coast LNG Export, LLC.............  [FE Docket No. 12-05-LNG].
Jordan Cove Energy Project, L.P........  [FE Docket No. 12-32-LNG].
LNG Development Company, LLC (d/b/a....  [FE Docket No. 12-77-LNG].
Oregon LNG)............................
Southern LNG Company, L.L.C............  [FE Docket No. 12-100-LNG].
Gulf LNG Liquefaction Company, LLC.....  [FE Docket No. 12-101-LNG].
CE FLNG, LLC...........................  [FE Docket No. 12-123-LNG].
Golden Pass Products LLC...............  [FE Docket No. 12-156-LNG].
Lake Charles LNG Export Company, LLC...  [FE Docket No. 13-04-LNG].
Freeport-McMoRan Energy LLC............  [FE Docket No. 13-26-LNG].
Venture Global Calcasieu Pass, LLC.....  [FE Docket No. 13-69-LNG].
Eos LNG LLC............................  [FE Docket No. 13-116-LNG].
Barca LNG LLC..........................  [FE Docket No. 13-118-LNG].
Magnolia LNG, LLC......................  [FE Docket No. 13-132-LNG].
Delfin LNG LLC.........................  [FE Docket No. 13-147-LNG].
Waller LNG Services, LLC...............  [FE Docket No. 13-153-LNG].
Gasfin Development USA, LLC............  [FE Docket No. 13-161-LNG].
Louisiana LNG Energy LLC...............  [FE Docket No. 14-29-LNG].
Venture Global Calcasieu Pass, LLC.....  [FE Docket No. 14-88-LNG].
SCT&E LNG, LLC.........................  [FE Docket No. 14-98-LNG].
Downeast LNG, Inc......................  [FE Docket No. 14-173-LNG].
Venture Global Calcasieu Pass, LLC.....  [FE Docket No. 15-25-LNG].
G2 LNG LLC.............................  [FE Docket No. 15-45-LNG].
Texas LNG Brownsville LLC..............  [FE Docket No. 15-62-LNG].
Strom Inc..............................  [FE Docket No. 15-78-LNG].
Cameron LNG, LLC.......................  [FE Docket No. 15-90-LNG].
Port Arthur LNG, LLC...................  [FE Docket No. 15-96-LNG].
Corpus Christi Liquefaction, LLC.......  [FE Docket No. 15-97-LNG].
Flint Hills Resources, LP..............  [FE Docket No. 15-168-LNG).
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SUMMARY: The Office of Fossil Energy (FE) of the Department of Energy 
(DOE) gives notice of the availability of two studies examining the 
cumulative impacts of liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports in the above-
referenced proceedings and invites the submission of comments regarding 
those studies. DOE commissioned the studies to inform DOE's decisions 
on applications seeking authorization to export LNG from the lower-48 
states to non-free trade agreement countries.\1\ The first study, 
performed by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and 
originally published in October 2014, assessed how specified scenarios 
of increased natural gas exports could affect domestic energy markets 
(2014 EIA LNG Export Study). At DOE's request, this study was an update 
of EIA's January 2012 study of LNG export scenarios using baseline 
cases from EIA's 2014 Annual Energy Outlook. The second study was 
performed by the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University's Baker 
Institute and Oxford Economics, under contract to DOE (2015 LNG Export 
Study). This 2015 LNG Export Study is a scenario-based assessment of 
the macroeconomic impact of levels of U.S. LNG exports sourced from the 
lower-48 states in volumes ranging from 12 to 20 billion cubic feet per 
day (Bcf/d) of natural gas under a range of assumptions, including U.S. 
resource endowment, U.S. natural gas demand, international LNG market 
dynamics, and other factors. These two studies are posted on the DOE/FE 
Web site at: http://www.energy.gov/fe/2015-

[[Page 81301]]

lng-study. DOE may use the 2014 EIA LNG Export Study and the 2015 LNG 
Export Study to inform its decisions in the listed proceedings and for 
other purposes. Comments submitted in compliance with the instructions 
in this notice will be placed in the administrative record for all of 
the above-listed proceedings and need only be submitted once.
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    \1\ The studies did not consider the impact of exports of Alaska 
natural gas production. Because there is no natural gas pipeline 
interconnection between Alaska and the lower-48 states, the 
macroeconomic consequences of exporting LNG from Alaska are likely 
to be discrete and separate from those of exporting from the lower-
48 states.

DATES: Comments are to be filed using procedures detailed in the Public 
Comment Procedures section no later than 4:30 p.m., Eastern time, 
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February 12, 2016. DOE will not accept reply comments.

ADDRESSES:

Electronic Filing of Comments Using Online Form

http://www.energy.gov/fe/2015-lng-study

Regular Mail

U.S. Department of Energy (FE-34), Office of Regulation and 
International Engagement, Office of Fossil Energy, P.O. Box 44375, 
Washington, DC 20026-4375

Hand Delivery or Private Delivery Services (e.g., FedEx, UPS, etc.)

U.S. Department of Energy (FE-34), Office of Regulation and 
International Engagement, Office of Fossil Energy, Forrestal Building, 
Room 3E-042, 1000 Independence Avenue SW., Washington, DC 20585

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Robert Smith, U.S. Department of Energy (FE-1), Office of Fossil 
Energy, Forrestal Building, Room 3E-042, 1000 Independence Avenue SW., 
Washington, DC 20585, (202) 586-7241

Edward Myers or Cassandra Bernstein, U.S. Department of Energy (GC-76), 
Office of the Assistant General Counsel for Electricity and Fossil 
Energy, Forrestal Building, 1000 Independence Avenue SW., Washington, 
DC 20585, (202) 586-3397; (202) 586-9793

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Background

    Pursuant to section 3 of the Natural Gas Act, 15 U.S.C. 717b, 
exports of natural gas, including LNG, must be authorized by DOE/FE.\2\ 
Applications that seek authority to export natural gas to countries 
with which the United States has not entered into a free trade 
agreement (FTA) requiring national treatment for trade in natural gas 
(non-FTA countries) are presumed to be in the public interest unless, 
after opportunity for hearing, DOE finds that the authorizations would 
not be consistent with the public interest.
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    \2\ The authority to regulate the imports and exports of natural 
gas, including liquefied natural gas, under section 3 of the NGA (15 
U.S.C. 717b) has been delegated to the Assistant Secretary for FE in 
Redelegation Order No. 00-006.02 (issued November 17, 2014).
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    Previously, in August 2012, DOE/FE had authorized one non-FTA LNG 
export authorization--to Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC, for a volume of 
LNG equivalent to 2.2 Bcf/d of natural gas--and had several other non-
FTA export applications pending before it.\3\ DOE/FE therefore 
determined that further study of the economic impacts of LNG exports 
was warranted to better inform its public interest review under section 
3 of the NGA. Accordingly, on December 11, 2012, DOE gave notice of the 
availability of the 2012 LNG Export Study.\4\ DOE commissioned that 
Study, consisting of two separate parts, of the economic impacts of 
exporting LNG to non-FTA nations up to 12 billion cubic feet per day 
(Bcf/d). The 2012 LNG Export Study was comprised of the following:
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    \3\ See, e.g., Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC, DOE/FE Order No. 
2961-A, FE Docket No. 10-111-LNG, Final Opinion and Order Granting 
Long-Term Authorization to Export Liquefied Natural Gas From Sabine 
Pass LNG Terminal to Non-Free Trade Agreement Nations (Aug. 7, 
2012).
    \4\ U.S. Dep't of Energy, 2012 LNG Export Study, Notice of 
Availability and Request for Comments, 77 FR 73,627 (Dec. 11, 2012).
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     An analysis performed by the Energy Information 
Administration (EIA) and originally published in January 2012, entitled 
Effect of Increased Natural Gas Exports on Domestic Energy Markets 
(2012 EIA Study), examining the impact of two prescribed levels of 
assumed natural gas exports (at 6 Bcf/d and 12 Bcf/d) under numerous 
scenarios and cases based on projections from EIA's 2011 Annual Energy 
Outlook, which were the most recent EIA projections available at the 
time; and
     An evaluation performed by NERA Economic Consulting 
(NERA), a private contractor retained by DOE, entitled Macroeconomic 
Impacts of Increased LNG Exports From the United States (NERA Study), 
which incorporated EIA's case study output using EIA's National Energy 
Modeling System model into NERA's general equilibrium model of the U.S. 
economy, with an emphasis on the energy sector and natural gas in 
particular. NERA analyzed the potential macroeconomic impacts of LNG 
exports under a range of global natural gas supply and demand 
scenarios.
    DOE/FE invited public comment on the 2012 LNG Export Study, and 
received comments representing a diverse range of interests and 
perspectives.
    To date, DOE/FE has issued 12 final long-term authorizations, in 
response to 14 applications, granting long-term authority to export LNG 
and compressed natural gas (CNG) to non-FTA countries in a cumulative 
volume of exports totaling 10.008 Bcf/d of natural gas.\5\ DOE/FE 
considered the comments received on the 2012 LNG Export Study in its 
review of each of those applications (except for the first 
application--Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC in FE Docket No. 10-111-
LNG--which was granted at approximately the same time that DOE 
commenced the 2012 LNG Export Study).\6\ Additionally, DOE/FE has 
explained that, in deciding whether to grant a non-FTA export 
application, it considers in its decision-making the cumulative impacts 
of the total volume of all final non-FTA export authorizations.\7\ DOE/
FE has further stated that it will assess the cumulative impacts of 
each succeeding request for export authorization on the public interest 
with due regard to the effect on domestic natural gas supply and demand 
fundamentals.\8\
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    \5\ See Air Flow North America Corp., DOE/FE Order No. 3753, FE 
Docket No. 14-206-LNG, Final Opinion and Order Granting Long-Term, 
Multi Contract Authorization to Export Liquefied Natural Gas in ISO 
Containers Loaded at the Clean Energy Fuels Corp. LNG Production 
Facility in Willis, Texas, and Exported by Vessel to Non-Free Trade 
Agreement Nationals in Central America, South America, the 
Caribbean, or Africa, at 24-25 (Dec. 4, 2015) (identifying the 12 
final non-FTA export authorizations issued to date, including the 
first authorization granted to Sabine Pass Liquefaction, LLC).
    \6\ See supra n.3; see also, e.g., Sabine Pass Liquefaction, 
LLC, DOE/FE Order No. 3669, FE Docket Nos. 13-30-LNG, 13-42-LNG, & 
13-121-LNG, Final Opinion and Order Granting Long-Term, Multi-
Contract Authorization to Export Liquefied Natural Gas by Vessel 
from the Sabine Pass LNG Terminal Located in Cameron Parish, 
Louisiana, to Non-Free Trade Agreement Nations, at 94-149 (June 26, 
2015) (``Comments on the 2012 LNG Export Study and DOE/FE 
Analysis'').
    \7\ Id. at 211-12.
    \8\ Id. at 212.
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    The 29 proceedings identified above involve applications submitted 
by the named parties seeking authorization to export LNG from the 
lower-48 states to non-FTA countries. In light of the volume of long-
term LNG and CNG exports to non-FTA countries authorized to date, DOE/
FE determined that a study of the economic impacts of LNG exports is 
again warranted. Therefore, on May 29, 2014, DOE announced plans to 
undertake economic studies in order to gain a better understanding of 
how potentially higher levels of U.S. LNG exports--between 12

[[Page 81302]]

and 20 Bcf/d of natural gas--would affect the public interest.
    Specifically, for the 2014 EIA LNG Export Study, DOE/FE asked EIA 
to evaluate the impact of increased natural gas demand, reflecting 
possible exports of U.S. natural gas, on domestic energy markets using 
the modeling analysis presented in the Annual Energy Outlook 2014 as a 
starting point. Second, for the 2015 LNG Export Study, DOE/FE engaged 
the Center for Energy Studies at Rice University's Baker Institute and 
Oxford Economics for an external analysis of the economic impact of 
this increased range of LNG exports and other effects that LNG exports 
might have on the U.S. natural gas market.
    The purpose of this Notice is to enter the 2014 EIA LNG Export 
Study and the 2015 LNG Export Study in the administrative record of the 
29 listed non-FTA export proceedings and to invite comments on these 
two studies, as applied to each proceeding. The 2014 EIA LNG Export 
Study, the 2015 LNG Export Study, and the comments that DOE/FE receives 
in response to this Notice will help to inform DOE's determination of 
the public interest in each case.

The 2014 EIA LNG Export Study

    EIA prepared a report entitled Effect of Increased Levels of 
Liquefied Natural Gas Exports on U.S. Energy Markets in response to the 
May 29, 2014 request from DOE/FE for an update of the EIA's January 
2012 study of LNG export scenarios. DOE/FE asked EIA to assess how 
specified scenarios of increased exports of LNG from the lower-48 
states would affect domestic energy markets, focusing on consumption, 
production, and prices. The DOE/FE scenarios posit total LNG exports 
sourced from the lower-48 states of 12 Bcf/d, 16 Bcf/d, and 20 Bcf/d, 
with these exports phased in at a rate of 2 Bcf/d each year beginning 
in 2015. DOE/FE requested that EIA consider the specified lower-48 
states LNG export scenarios in the context of baseline cases from EIA's 
2014 Annual Energy Outlook 2014, which reflect varying perspectives on 
domestic natural gas supply, the growth rate of the U.S. economy, and 
natural gas use for electricity generation.

The 2015 LNG Export Study

    The Center for Energy Studies at Rice University's Baker Institute 
and Oxford Economics were jointly commissioned to undertake a scenario-
based assessment of the macroeconomic impact of alternative levels of 
U.S. LNG exports under a range of assumptions concerning U.S. resource 
endowment (natural gas supply), U.S. natural gas demand, and the 
international market environment.
    A comprehensive set of scenarios was prepared to understand the 
economic impact of higher U.S. LNG exports under a range of 
circumstances for domestic and international gas markets. This scenario 
approach was chosen to enable conclusions that are independent of any 
particular set of starting conditions for the U.S. or international 
natural gas markets, and to highlight the impact of increasing U.S. LNG 
exports under alternative domestic and international conditions. The 
authors considered sets of circumstances that would result in different 
international demand pull for U.S. sourced LNG. The variants considered 
were international conditions sufficient to support 12 Bcf/d and 20 
Bcf/d of U.S. LNG exports.

Invitation to Comment

    DOE invites comments on the 2014 EIA LNG Export Study and/or the 
2015 LNG Export Study to help inform DOE in its public interest 
determinations of the authorizations sought in the 29 non-FTA export 
applications identified above. Comments must be limited to the 
methodology, results, and conclusions of these studies on the factors 
evaluated. These factors include the potential impact of LNG exports on 
domestic energy consumption, production, and prices; the macroeconomic 
factors identified in the two studies, including Gross Domestic 
Product, consumption, U.S. economic sector analysis, and U.S. LNG 
export feasibility analysis; and any other factors included in the 
analyses. In addition, comments may be directed toward the feasibility 
of various scenarios used in both analyses. While this invitation to 
comment covers a broad range of issues, the Department may disregard 
comments that are not germane to the present inquiry. Due to the 
complexity of the issues raised in these studies, interested parties 
will be provided 45 days from the date of publication of this Notice in 
which to submit their comments.

Public Comment Procedures

    DOE is not establishing a new proceeding or docket by today's 
issuance, and the submission of comments in response to this Notice 
will not make commenters parties to any of the 29 listed LNG export 
proceedings. Persons with an interest in the outcome of one or more of 
those proceedings have been given an opportunity to intervene in and/or 
protest those applications by complying with the procedures established 
in the respective notices of application published in the Federal 
Register.\9\ The record in those 29 proceedings will include all 
comments received in response to this Notice. Comments will be reviewed 
on a consolidated basis for purposes of hearing, and decisions will be 
issued on a case-by-case basis. In addition to the procedures 
established by this Notice, all comments must meet the requirements 
specified by the regulations in 10 CFR part 590, as supplemented below.
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    \9\ Notices of application in 28 of 29 proceedings were 
published in the Federal Register as follows: Lake Charles Exports, 
LLC, FE Docket No. 11-59-LNG, 76 FR 34212 (June 13, 2011); Gulf 
Coast LNG Export, LLC, FE Docket No. 12-05-LNG, 77 FR 32962 (June 4, 
2012); Jordan Cove Energy Project, L.P., FE Docket No. 12-32-LNG, 77 
FR 33446 (June 6, 2012); LNG Development Co., LLC (d/b/a Oregon 
LNG), FE Docket No. 12-77-LNG, 77 FR 55197 (Sept. 7, 2012); Southern 
LNG Co, L.L.C., FE Docket No. 12-100-LNG, 77 FR 63806 (Oct. 17, 
2012); Gulf LNG Liquefaction Co., LLC, FE Docket No. 12-101-LNG, 77 
FR 66454 (Nov. 5, 2012); CE FLNG, LLC, FE Docket No. 12-123-LNG, 77 
FR 72840 (Dec. 6, 2012); Golden Pass Products LLC, FE Docket No. 12-
156-LNG, 77 FR 72837 (Dec. 6, 2012); Lake Charles LNG Export Co., 
LLC (formerly Trunkline LNG Export, LLC), FE Docket No. 13-04-LNG, 
78 FR 17189 (Mar. 20, 2013); Freeport-McMoRan Energy LLC, FE Docket 
No. 13-26-LNG, 78 FR 34084 (June 6, 2013); Venture Global Calcasieu 
Pass, LLC, FE Docket No. 13-69-LNG, 79 FR 30109 (May 27, 2014); Eos 
LNG LLC, FE Docket No. 13-116-LNG, 78 FR 75337 (Dec. 11, 2013); 
Barca LNG LLC, FE Docket No. 13-118-LNG, 78 FR 75339 (Dec. 11, 
2013); Magnolia LNG, LLC, FE Docket No. 13-132-LNG, 79 FR 15980 
(Mar. 24, 2014); Delfin LNG LLC, FE Docket No. 13-147-LNG, 79 FR 
16782 (Mar. 26, 2014); Waller LNG Svs., LLC, FE Docket No. 13-153-
LNG, 79 FR 41685 (July 17, 2014); Gasfin Development USA, LLC, FE 
Docket No. 13-161-LNG, 79 FR 44439 (July 31, 2014); Louisiana LNG 
Energy LLC, FE Docket No. 14-29-LNG, 79 FR 57896 (Sept. 26, 2014); 
Venture Global Calcasieu Pass, LLC, FE Docket No. 14-88-LNG, 79 FR 
66707 (Nov. 10, 2014); SCT&E LNG, LLC, FE Docket No. 14-98-LNG, 79 
FR 75796 (Dec. 19, 2014); Downeast LNG, Inc., FE Docket No. 14-173-
LNG, 80 FR 13532 (Mar. 16, 2015); Venture Global Calcasieu Pass, 
LLC, FE Docket No. 15-25-LNG, 80 FR 36977 (June 29, 2015); G2 LNG 
LLC, FE Docket No. 15-45-LNG, 80 FR 44091 (July 24, 2015); Texas LNG 
Brownsville LLC, FE Docket No. 15-62-LNG, 80 FR 46966, (August 6, 
2015); Strom Inc., FE Docket No. 15-78-LNG, 80 FR 51793 (Aug. 26, 
2015); Cameron LNG, LLC, FE Docket No. 15-90-LNG, 80 FR 46970 (Aug. 
6, 2015); Port Arthur LNG, LLC, FE Docket No. 15-96-LNG, 80 FR 51795 
(Aug. 26, 2015); Corpus Christi Liquefaction, LLC, FE Docket No. 15-
97-LNG, 80 FR 51790 (Aug. 26, 2015). The Notice of application for 
Flint Hills Resources, LP is currently pending in FE Docket No. 15-
168-LNG.
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    Comments may be submitted using one of the following supplemental 
methods:
    (1) Submitting the comments using the online form at http://www.energy.gov/fe/2015-lng-study;
    (2) Mailing an original and three paper copies of the filing to the 
Office of Regulation and International Engagement at the address listed 
in ADDRESSES; or
    (3) Hand delivering an original and three paper copies of the 
filing to the Office of Regulation and International

[[Page 81303]]

Engagement at the address listed in ADDRESSES.
    For administrative efficiency, DOE/FE prefers comments to be filed 
electronically using the online form (method 1). However, for those 
commenters lacking access to the Internet, comments may be filed in 
hard copy using one of the other two methods identified above. All 
comments must include a reference to the ``2014 EIA LNG Export Study'' 
and/or ``2015 LNG Export Study'' in the title line.
    The 2014 EIA LNG Export Study and 2015 LNG Export Study are 
available for inspection and copying in the Division of Natural Gas 
Regulation docket room, Room 3E-042, 1000 Independence Avenue SW., 
Washington, DC 20585. The docket room is open between the hours of 8:00 
a.m. and 4:30 p.m., Monday through Friday, except Federal holidays. The 
two studies and any comments filed in response to this Notice will be 
available electronically at the following DOE/FE Web site: http://www.energy.gov/fe/2015-lng-study.

    Issued in Washington, DC, on December 18, 2015.
John A. Anderson,
Director, Office of Regulation and International Engagement, Office of 
Oil and Natural Gas.
[FR Doc. 2015-32590 Filed 12-28-15; 8:45 am]
 BILLING CODE 6450-01-P