[Federal Register Volume 80, Number 84 (Friday, May 1, 2015)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 24841-24846]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2015-10036]


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DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

10 CFR Part 431

[Docket No. EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006]
RIN 1904-AC55


Energy Conservation Standards for Commercial and Industrial Fans 
and Blowers: Availability of Provisional Analysis Tools

AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of 
Energy.

ACTION: Notice of Data Availability.

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SUMMARY: The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has completed a 
provisional analysis of the potential economic impacts and energy 
savings that could result from promulgating an energy conservation 
standard for commercial and industrial fans and blowers. This analysis 
incorporates information and comments received after the completion of 
an analysis presented in a notice of data availability (NODA) published 
in December 2014. At this time, DOE is not proposing an energy 
conservation standard for commercial and industrial fans and blowers. 
This analysis may be used in support of the Appliance Standards Federal 
Rulemaking Advisory Committee (ASRAC) commercial and industrial fans 
working group negotiations to develop a recommendation for regulating 
commercial and industrial fans. DOE encourages stakeholders to provide 
any additional data or information that may improve the analysis and to 
present comments submitted to this NODA and to the NODA published in 
December 2014 to the working group.

DATES: Information is available as of May 1, 2015.

ADDRESSES: The analysis for this NODA is available at: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/rulemaking.aspx?ruleid=25.
    Interested persons are encouraged to submit comments using the 
Federal eRulemaking Portal at: http://www.regulations.gov. Follow the 
instructions for submitting comments. Alternatively, interested persons 
may submit comments, identified by Docket number EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006, 
by any of the following methods:
    (1) Email: to [email protected]. Include EERE-2013-BT-STD-
0006 in the subject line of the message. Submit electronic comments in 
WordPerfect, Microsoft Word, PDF, or ASCII file format, and avoid the 
use of special characters or any form of encryption.
    (2) Mail: Ms. Brenda Edwards, U.S. Department of Energy, Building 
Technologies Program, Mailstop EE-2J, Revisions to Energy Efficiency 
Enforcement Regulations, EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006, 1000 Independence 
Avenue SW., Washington, DC 20585- 0121. Phone: (202) 586-2945. If 
possible, please submit all items on a CD, in which case it is not 
necessary to include printed copies.
    (3) Hand Delivery/Courier: Ms. Brenda Edwards, U.S. Department of 
Energy, Building Technologies Program, 6th Floor, 950 L'Enfant Plaza 
SW., Washington, DC 20024. Phone: (202)

[[Page 24842]]

586-2945. If possible, please submit all items on a CD, in which case 
it is not necessary to include printed copies.
    (4) Instructions: All submissions received must include the agency 
name and docket number or RIN for this rulemaking.
    Docket: The docket, which includes Federal Register notices, 
comments, and other supporting documents/materials, is available for 
review at www.regulations.gov. All documents in the docket are listed 
in the www.regulations.gov index. However, not all documents listed in 
the index may be publicly available, such as information that is exempt 
from public disclosure.
    A link to the docket Web page can be found at: http://www.regulations.gov/#!docketDetail;D=EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006. The 
www.regulations.gov Web page contains instructions on how to access all 
documents in the docket, including public comments. See ADDRESSES, for 
further information on how to submit comments through 
www.regulations.gov.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: 
    Ms. Ashley Armstrong, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy 
Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Building Technologies, EE-2J, 1000 
Independence Avenue SW., Washington, DC 20585-0121. Telephone: (202) 
586-6590. Email: [email protected].
    Mr. Peter Cochran, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of the General 
Counsel, GC-33, 1000 Independence Avenue SW., Washington, DC 20585-
0121. Telephone: (202) 586-9496. Email: [email protected].
    For further information on how to review other public comments and 
the docket, contact Ms. Brenda Edwards at (202) 586-2945 or by email: 
[email protected].

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: 

Table of Contents

I. History of Energy Conservation Standards Rulemaking for 
Commercial and Industrial Fans and Blowers
II. Current Status
III. Summary of the Analyses Performed by DOE
    A. Energy Metric
    B. Engineering Analysis
    C. Manufacturer Impact Analysis
    D. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses
    E. National Impact Analysis
IV. Issues on Which DOE Seeks Public Comment

I. History of Energy Conservation Standards Rulemaking for Commercial 
and Industrial Fans and Blowers

    The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA), as amended, 
established the Energy Conservation Program for Certain Industrial 
Equipment under Title III, Part C. (42 U.S.C. 6311-6317, as codified) 
\1\ Included among the various types of industrial equipment addressed 
by EPCA are commercial and industrial fans and blowers, the subject of 
this notice. (42 U.S.C. 6311(2) (A)) All references to EPCA refer to 
the statute as amended through the American Energy Manufacturing 
Technical Corrections Act (AEMTCA), Public Law 112-210 (December 18, 
2012).
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    \1\ For editorial reasons, upon codification in the U.S. Code, 
Part C was re-designated Part A-1.
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    DOE initiated the current rulemaking by publishing a proposed 
coverage determination for commercial and industrial fans and blowers. 
76 FR 37678 (June 28, 2011). This was followed by the publication of a 
Notice of Public Meeting and Availability of the Framework Document for 
commercial and industrial fans and blowers in the Federal Register. In 
the Framework Document, DOE requested feedback from interested parties 
on many issues related to analyses DOE would conduct as part of the 
rulemaking, such as the engineering analysis, the manufacturer impact 
analysis (MIA), the life-cycle cost (LCC) and payback period (PBP) 
analyses, and the national impact analysis (NIA). 78 FR 7306 (February 
1, 2013).\2\
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    \2\ Supporting documents are available at: http://www.regulations.gov/#!docketDetail;D=EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006
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    On December 10, 2014, DOE published a Notice of Data Availability 
(the ``December 2014 NODA'') that presented a provisional analysis 
estimating the potential economic impacts and energy savings that could 
result from promulgating a regulatory energy conservation standard for 
commercial and industrial fans and blowers. 79 FR 73246.\3\ The 
December 2014 NODA analysis relied on an electric input power based 
metric (i.e., ``wire-to-air''), the fan energy index (FEI). The FEI of 
a fan was defined as the average electric input power, or fan energy 
rating, of a fan that exactly meets the efficiency level being analyzed 
(FERSTD), divided by the average electric input power or fan 
energy rating of the fan (FER). In the December 2014 NODA, the FER was 
calculated over a specific load profile based on the fan's flow at peak 
total efficiency \4\ and at a specified speed.\5\
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    \3\ The December 2014 NODA comment period was originally 
scheduled to close on January 26, 2015. DOE subsequently published a 
notice in the Federal Register extending the comment period to 
February 25, 2015, to allow additional time for interested parties 
to submit comments.
    \4\ The efficiency of a fan is defined as the ratio of air 
output power to mechanical input power. Fan efficiency varies 
depending on the output flow and pressure. The best efficiency point 
or BEP represents the flow and pressure values at which the fan 
efficiency is maximized when operating at a given speed.
    \5\ In the December 2014 NODA, DOE calculated the FEI at the 
speed corresponding to the highest electric motor synchronous speed 
configuration that exists within the fan's operational speed range.
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    In October 2014, several energy efficiency advocates and 
representatives of fan manufacturers \6\ (the ``Joint Stakeholders'') 
presented a different energy metric approach to DOE called ``Fan 
Efficiency Ratio''. The Joint Stakeholder approach included a fan 
efficiency only metric (FERH) as well as a wire-to-air 
metric (FERW).\7\ This metric approach was described in more 
details by AMCA in a white paper (``AMCA white paper'') published in 
December 2014 which AMCA included in comments to the December 2014 
NODA.\8\ (AMCA, No. 48 at p. 15) Based on the additional information 
received, and comments to the December 2014 NODA, DOE revised its 
analysis. This second NODA presents an analysis that characterizes fan 
performance and efficiency levels using a revised FEI metric that is 
based on the FERW presented by the Joint Stakeholders. (See 
section III.A for details on the revised FEI metric)
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    \6\ The Air Movement and Control Association (AMCA), New York 
Blower Company, Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), the 
Appliance Standards Awareness Project (ASAP), and the Northwest 
Energy Efficiency Alliance (NEEA).
    \7\ Supporting documents from this meeting, including 
presentation slides are available at: http://www.regulations.gov/#a!documentDetail;D=EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006-0029.
    \8\ All comments are available at: http://www.regulations.gov/#!docketDetail;D=EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006.
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II. Current Status

    The analyses described in this NODA were developed to support a 
potential energy conservation standard for commercial and industrial 
fans. As DOE announced in an April 2015 notice, DOE intends to 
establish a negotiated rulemaking working group under the Appliance 
Standards and Rulemaking Federal Advisory Committee (ASRAC) in 
accordance with the Federal Advisory Committee Act (FACA) and the 
Negotiated Rulemaking Act (NRA) to negotiate proposed definitions, the 
equipment classes for which standards would be considered (including 
any system interaction effects), certain aspects of a proposed test 
procedure (if

[[Page 24843]]

applicable), and proposed energy conservation standards for fans and 
blowers. 80 FR 17359 (April 1, 2015)
    To examine these issues, and others as necessary, DOE will provide 
to all parties in the negotiation data and an analytic framework 
complete and accurate enough to support their deliberations. DOE is 
publishing this analysis to inform a prospective negotiation.
    In this NODA, DOE is not proposing any energy conservation 
standards for commercial and industrial fans. DOE may revise the 
analyses presented in this NODA based on any new or updated information 
or data it obtains during the course of the rulemaking. DOE encourages 
stakeholders to provide any additional data or information that may 
improve the analysis.

III. Summary of the Analyses Performed by DOE

    DOE developed a fan energy performance metric and conducted 
provisional analyses of commercial and industrial fans in the following 
areas: (1) Engineering; (2) manufacturer impacts; (3) LCC and PBP; and 
(4) national impacts. The metric and provisional analyses incorporate 
information received after the completion of the analysis for the 
December 2014 NODA, including the published fan industry white paper 
``Fan Efficiency Ratios'' and a database of confidential sales 
information provided by (AMCA). The fan energy performance metric and 
the tools used in preparing these analyses and their respective results 
are available at: http://www.regulations.gov/#!docketDetail;D=EERE-
2013-BT-STD-0006. Each individual spreadsheet includes an introduction 
that provides an overview of the contents of the spreadsheet. These 
spreadsheets present the various inputs and outputs to the analysis 
and, where necessary, instructions. Brief descriptions of the fan 
energy performance metric, of the provisional analyses, and of the 
supporting spreadsheet tools are provided below. If DOE proposes an 
energy conservation standard for commercial and industrial fans in a 
future NOPR, then DOE will publish a TSD containing a detailed written 
account of the analyses performed in support of the NOPR, which will 
include updates to the analyses made available in this NODA.

A. Energy Metric

    Commercial and industrial fan energy performance is a critical 
input in the provisional analyses discussed in this notice. For the 
purpose of this NODA, DOE revised the fan energy metric used to 
represent fan performance and characterize the efficiency levels 
analyzed in the December 2014 NODA. The revised FEI metric is based on 
an approach similar to the wire-to-air metric presented by the Joint 
Stakeholders to DOE in October 2014. AMCA subsequently published a 
white paper in December 2014 that describes the Joint Stakeholder 
approach in more detail. AMCA included this white paper in its 
publicily-available comments to the December 2014 NODA, which 
additional stakeholders supported in their written comments on the 
December 2014 NODA.9 10 (Joint Stakeholders, No. 50 at p. 2; 
AMCA, No. 48 at p. 15; CAIous, No. 49 at p. 2; Morrison, No. 51 at p. 
2)
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    \9\ Supporting documents from the October 2014 meeting, 
including presentation slides are available at: http://www.regulations.gov/#!documentDetail;D=EERE-2013-BT-STD-0006-0029.
    \10\ AMCA, Introducing Fan Efficiency Ratios, December 2014, 
http://www.amca.org/resources/FER_Whitepaper_single%20pages.pdf.
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    In this NODA, the FEI is defined as the electric input power of a 
fan, or fan energy rating that exactly meets the efficiency level being 
analyzed (FERSTD), divided by the electric input power, or 
fan energy rating, of a given fan model (FER) at a given operating 
point (characterized by a value of flow and total pressure). For a 
given operating point, an FEI value less than one would indicate that 
the fan does not meet the efficiency level being analyzed for that 
given operating point, while a value greater than one would indicate 
that the fan is more efficient than the efficiency level being analyzed 
at that given operating point. For each fan operating point, the FEI is 
calculated as:
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP01MY15.008

    In order to calculate the FER of a fan, DOE assumed default motor 
full load and part load efficiency values, as well as default 
transmission losses: \11\
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    \11\ These default losses assumptions are presented in the LCC 
spreadsheet, in the ``Default Losses'' worksheet. The default 
transmission efficiency is equal to one in case of a direct driven 
fan.
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP01MY15.009

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Where:

FERi: electrical input power (hp) at operating point i;
Qi: flow (cfm) at operating point i;
Pi: total fan efficiency (%) at operating point i;
[eta]fan,i: total fan efficiency (%) at operating point 
i;
[eta]T,i: default transmission efficiency (%) at oprating 
point i (equals 100% f the fan is a direct driven fan);
LM,i: default electric motor losses (hp) at operatin 
gpoint i;
BHPi: shaft input power (hp) at operating point i;
6343: conversion factor to I-P units.

    For the FERSTD calculation of a fan that exactly meets 
the efficiency level being analyzed, DOE used the same FER equation, 
except the calculation of the fan shaft input power is based on a 
minimum allowable fan total efficiency:
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP01MY15.010

Where:

FERSTD,i: Maximum allowable electrical input power (hp) at operating 
point i;
BHPSTD,i: Maximum allowable shaft input power (hp) at operating 
point i;
Qi: flow (cfm) at operating point i;
Pi: total pressure (in.wg) at operating point i;
[eta]STD,i: minimum total fan efficiency (%) at operating point i ;
[eta]T,i: default transmission efficiency (%) at operating point i 
(the minimally

[[Page 24844]]

compliant fan is assumed to always be belt-driven);
LM,i: default electric motor losses (hp) at operating point i;
6343: conversion factor to I-P units.

    For all fan categories, the minimum fan total efficiency at a given 
operating point is expressed as a function of flow and total pressure, 
as follows:
[GRAPHIC] [TIFF OMITTED] TP01MY15.011

Where:

[eta]STD,i: Minimum total fan efficiency (%) at operating point i;
BHPSTD,i: Max allowable shaft input power (hp) at operating point i;
Q0: flow constant equal to 250
P0: total pressure constant equal to 0.4
[eta]target: constant used to establish the efficiency level \12\
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    \12\ The efficiency target is a constant that described the 
expected minimum allowable fan efficiency for very high flow and 
total pressure operating points at a given efficiency level.
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6343: conversion factor to I-P units

    This equation was based on the metric approach recommended by the 
Joint Stakeholders as well as on AMCA's proposed values for 
Q0 and P0 and on DOE's preliminary review of the 
applicability of this equation.\13\
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    \13\ See AMCA's DOE Fan efficiency Proposal presented at the 
59th AMCA Annual Meeting, January 24, 2015. http://www.amca.org/adovacy/documents/DOEFanEfficiencyProposal-AMCAAnnualMeetingRedux1-24-15.pdf.
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    The primary difference between the revised FEI metric used in this 
NODA and the wire-to-air metric recommended by the Joint Stakeholders 
is that the Joint Stakeholders recommend using an equation expressing 
static efficiency \14\ as a function of static pressure and flow when 
calculating FER and FERSTD at a given operating point for 
unducted fans (i.e. fans generally applied without a duct on their 
outlet), instead of using total efficiency as a function of total 
pressure and flow, as recommended for ducted fans.\15\ In its white 
paper, AMCA states that a metric based on static efficiency should be 
used for unducted fans, to accommodate the selection of unducted fans 
based on the use of static pressure. AMCA noted, however, that this 
opinion is not shared across all the industry. Three additional 
representatives of the industry agreed that static efficiency should be 
the basis for any metric related to unducted fans because of existing 
selection practices, while one recommended using total efficiency for 
all fan categories. (Joint Stakeholders, No. 50 at p. 3; AMCA, No. 48 
at p. 16; CES Group LLC, No. 40 at p. 1; Multi-wing, No. 52 at p. 2; 
Carrier, No. 43 at p. 6; Morrison, No. 51 at p. 2)
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    \14\ Static efficiency is equal to the total efficiency 
multiplied by the ratio of static pressure to total pressure, at a 
given point of operation. Static pressure is the difference between 
fan total pressure and fan velocity pressure at a given point of 
operation.
    \15\ Unducted fans include the following fan categories: Axial 
unhoused, centrifugal unhoused, and power roof ventilators.
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    DOE understands that using static pressure may be useful for 
selecting unducted fans, however, because static efficiency is, by 
definition, calculated using total pressure, and because the shaft 
input power of a fan is a function of the fan's total output power and 
total efficiency, DOE maintained the use of an energy metric based on 
total pressure and total efficiency for all fan categories.\16\ DOE 
does not believe this approach would prevent end-users from selecting 
fans using either static or total pressure.
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    \16\ The fan's total output power is the power delivered to the 
air (or gas). It is proportional to the product of the fan airflow 
rate and fan total pressure (if air were incompressible).
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B. Engineering Analysis

    The engineering analysis establishes the relationship between the 
manufacturer production cost (MPC) and efficiency levels of commercial 
and industrial fans and blowers. This relationship serves as the basis 
for calculations performed in the other analysis tools to estimate the 
costs and benefits to individual consumers, manufacturers, and the 
nation.
    As a first step in the engineering analysis, DOE established seven 
provisional fan groups based on characteristics such as the direction 
of airflow through the fan and the presence of a housing. While DOE 
analyzed seven provisional fan groups in this NODA, DOE expects the 
working group to discuss and ultimately recommend equipment classes for 
which standards would be considered. For each of the seven provisional 
fan groupings, DOE identified existing technology options that could 
affect efficiency. DOE then conducted a screening analysis to review 
each technology option and decide whether it: (1) Is technologically 
feasible; (2) is practicable to manufacture, install, and service; (3) 
would adversely affect product utility or product availability; or (4) 
would have adverse impacts on health and safety. The technology options 
remaining after the screening analysis consisted of a variety of 
impeller types and guide vanes. DOE used these technology options to 
divide the fan groups into subgroups and conducted a market-based 
assessment of the prevalence of each subgroup at the different 
efficiency levels analyzed using the sales data provided by AMCA. This 
NODA has fewer subgroups than the December 2014 NODA due to limitations 
in the sales data provided by AMCA. DOE analyzed six efficiency levels 
in this NODA, each representing a different efficiency target 
([eta]target). AMCA presented results for an efficiency target of 62 
percent for ducted fans.\17\ This NODA includes one efficiency level 
representing the same efficiency target as well as additional levels 
above and below.
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    \17\ See AMCA's DOE Fan efficiency Proposal presented at the 
59th AMCA Annual Meeting, January 24, 2015. http://www.amca.org/adovacy/documents/DOEFanEfficiencyProposal-AMCAAnnualMeetingRedux1-24-15.pdf
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    DOE estimated the MPCs for each technology option for each fan 
group as a function of blade or impeller diameter, independent of 
efficiency level. DOE then calculated MPCs for each fan group at each 
efficiency level analyzed by weighting the MPCs of each technology 
option within a group by its prevalence at the efficiency level being 
analyzed. The MPCs were derived from product teardowns and publically-
available product literature and informed by interviews with 
manufacturers.
    DOE's preliminary MPC estimates indicate that the changes in MPC as 
efficiency level increases are small or, in some fan groups, zero. 
However, DOE is aware that aerodynamic redesigns are a primary method 
by which manufacturers improve fan performance. These redesigns require 
manufacturers to make large upfront investments for R&D, testing and 
prototyping, and purchasing new production equipment. DOE's preliminary 
findings indicate that the magnitude of these upfront costs is more 
significant than the difference in MPC of a fan redesigned for 
efficiency compared to its precursor. For this NODA, DOE included a 
conversion cost markup in its calculation of the manufacturer selling 
price (MSP) to account for these

[[Page 24845]]

conversion costs. These markups and associated MSPs were developed and 
applied in downstream analyses. They are discussed in section C and 
presented in the engineering analysis and conversion cost spreadsheet.
    The main outputs of the commercial and industrial fans engineering 
analysis are the MPCs of each fan group (including material, labor, and 
overhead) and technology option distributions at each efficiency level 
analyzed.

C. Manufacturer Impact Analysis

    For the MIA, DOE used the Government Regulatory Impact Model (GRIM) 
to assess the economic impact of potential standards on commercial and 
industrial fan manufacturers. DOE developed key industry average 
financial parameters for the GRIM using publicly available data from 
corporate annual reports along with information received through 
confidential interviews with manufacturers. These values include 
average industry tax rate; working capital rate; net property, plant, 
and equipment rate; selling, general, and administrative expense rate; 
research and development expense rate; depreciation rate; capital 
expenditure rate; and manufacturer discount rate.
    Additionally, DOE calculated total industry capital and product 
conversion costs associated with meeting all analyzed efficiency 
levels. DOE first estimated the average industry capital and product 
conversion costs associated with redesigning a single fan model to meet 
a specific efficiency level. DOE estimated these costs for all 
technology options within each fan group. DOE multiplied the per model 
conversion costs by the number of models that would be required to be 
redesigned at each potential standard level to arrive at the total 
industry conversion costs. The number of models that would be 
redesigned was calculated using information from the AMCA sales 
database.
    In the December 2014 NODA, DOE assumed a redesign time of six 
months and an additional testing time of six months. Five 
representatives of the industry commented that six months was not a 
representative redesign time and made recommendations ranging from 12 
to 24 months. (AHRI, No. 53 at p. 8; AMCA, No. 48 at p. 4; Carrier, No. 
43 at p. 2; Greenheck, No. 54 at p. 5; Morrison, No. 51 at p. 4) DOE 
revised its conversion cost estimates in this NODA to assume a redesign 
time of 12 months and additional testing time of 6 months.
    The GRIM uses these estimated values in conjunction with inputs 
from other analyses including the MPCs from the engineering analysis, 
the annual shipments by fan group from the NIA, and the manufacturer 
markups for the cost recovery markup scenario from the LCC analysis to 
model industry annual cash flows from the base year through the end of 
the analysis period. The primary quantitative output of this model is 
the industry net present value (INPV), which DOE calculates as the sum 
of industry annual cash flows, discounted to the present day using the 
industry specific weighted average cost of capital, or manufacturer 
discount rate.
    Standards can affect INPV in several ways including requiring 
upfront investments in manufacturing capital as well as research and 
development expenses, which increase the cost of production and 
potentially alter manufacturer markups. DOE expects that manufacturers 
may lose a portion of INPV due to standards. The potential loss in INPV 
due to standards is calculated as the difference between INPV in the 
base-case (absent new energy conservation standards) and the INPV in 
the standards case (with new energy conservation standards in effect). 
DOE examines a range of possible impacts on industry by modeling 
various pricing strategies commercial and industrial fan manufacturers 
may adopt following the adoption of new energy conservations standards 
for commercial and industrial fans.
    In addition to INPV, the MIA also calculates the manufacturer 
markups, which are applied to the MPCs derived in the engineering 
analysis, to arrive at the manufacturer selling prices (MSPs) in the 
base case. For efficiency levels above the baseline, which require 
manufacturers to redesign models that do not meet the potential 
standards, conversion cost recovery markups were incorporated into the 
MSP in addition to the manufacturer markup. These conversion markups 
are based on the total conversion costs from the MIA and calculated to 
allow manufacturers to recover their upfront conversion costs. They are 
calculated by amortizing the conversion investment over the units 
shipped throughout the analysis period that were redesigned to meet the 
efficiency level being analyzed. The base case and standards case MSPs 
were used as inputs for downstream analyses.

D. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analyses

    The LCC and PBP analyses determine the economic impact of potential 
standards on individual consumers, in the compliance year. The LCC is 
the total cost of purchasing, installing and operating a commercial or 
industrial fan over the course of its lifetime.
    DOE determines the LCC by considering: (1) The total installed cost 
to the consumer (which consists of manufacturer selling price, 
distribution channel markups, and sales taxes); (2) the range of annual 
energy consumption of commercial and industrial fans as they are used 
in the field; (3) the operating cost of commercial and industrial fans 
(e.g., energy cost); (4) equipment lifetime; and (5) a discount rate 
that reflects the real consumer cost of capital and puts the LCC in 
present-value terms. The PBP represents the number of years needed to 
recover the increase in purchase price of higher-efficiency commercial 
and industrial fans through savings in the operating cost. PBP is 
calculated by dividing the incremental increase in installed cost of 
the higher efficiency product, compared to the baseline product, by the 
annual savings in operating costs.
    For each considered standards case corresponding to each efficiency 
level, DOE measures the change in LCC relative to the base case. The 
base case is characterized by the distribution of equipment 
efficiencies in the absence of new standards (i.e., what consumers 
would have purchased in the compliance year in the absence of new 
standards). In the standards cases, equipment with efficiency below the 
standard levels ``roll-up'' to the standard level in the compliance 
year.
    To characterize annual fan operating hours, DOE established 
statistical distributions of consumers of each fan category across 
sectors (industry or commercial) and applications (clean air 
ventilation, exhaust, combustion, drying, process air, process heating/
cooling, and others), which in turn determined the fan's operating 
hours. Recognizing that several inputs to the determination of consumer 
LCC and PBP are either variable or uncertain (e.g., annual energy 
consumption, lifetime, discount rate), DOE conducts the LCC and PBP 
analysis by modeling both the uncertainty and variability in the inputs 
using Monte Carlo simulations and probability distributions.
    In addition to characterizing several of the inputs to the analyses 
with probability distributions, DOE developed a sample of individual 
fan selections (i.e., a fan models and the operating flow and pressure 
values for which they were purchased) using fan sales data provided by 
AMCA \18\. By

[[Page 24846]]

developing this sample, DOE was able to perform the LCC and PBP 
calculations for each fan selection to account for the variability in 
energy consumption associated with each fan selection. DOE notes that 
when developing the LCC sample, it did not include fan sales data for 
which no flow and pressure selection information was available.
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    \18\ See description in LCC spreadsheet, LCC sample description 
worksheet.
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    The primary outputs of the LCC and PBP analyses are: (1) Average 
LCC in each standards case; (2) average PBPs; (3) average LCC savings 
at each standards case relative to the base case; and (4) the 
percentage of consumers that experience a net benefit, have no impact, 
or have a net cost for each fan group and efficiency level. The average 
annual energy consumption derived in the LCC analysis is used as an 
input in the NIA.

E. National Impact Analysis

    The NIA estimates the national energy savings (NES) and the net 
present value (NPV) of total consumer costs and savings expected to 
result from potential new standards at each EL. DOE calculated NES and 
NPV for each EL as the difference between a base case forecast (without 
new standards) and the standards case forecast (with standards). 
Cumulative energy savings are the sum of the annual NES determined for 
the lifetime of a commercial or industrial fan shipped during a 30 year 
analysis period assumed to start in 2019.\19\ Energy savings include 
the full-fuel cycle energy savings (i.e., the energy needed to extract, 
process, and deliver primary fuel sources such as coal and natural gas, 
and the conversion and distribution losses of generating electricity 
from those fuel sources). The NPV is the sum over time of the 
discounted net savings each year, which consists of the difference 
between total energy cost savings and increases in total equipment 
costs. NPV results are reported for discount rates of 3 and 7 percent.
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    \19\ The LCC and NIA spreadsheet provide results for a different 
compliance year (2019, 2020, and 2021).
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    To calculate the NES and NPV, DOE projected future shipments \20\ 
and efficiency distributions (for each EL) for each potential 
commercial and industrial fan category. DOE recognizes the uncertainty 
in projecting shipments and electricity prices; as a result the NIA 
includes several different scenarios for each. Other inputs to the NIA 
include the estimated commercial and industrial fan lifetime used in 
the LCC analysis, manufacturer selling prices from the MIA, average 
annual energy consumption, and efficiency distributions from the LCC.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \20\ The ``shipments'' worksheet of the NIA spreadsheet presents 
the scope of the analysis and the total shipments value in units for 
the fans in scope.
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IV. Issues on Which DOE Seeks Public Comment

    DOE is interested in receiving comment on all aspects of this 
analysis. DOE is particularly interested in receiving comments and 
views of interested parties concerning the following issues:
    1. DOE requests comments on the equation expressing fan total 
efficiency as presented in this notice, as a function of flow and total 
pressure.
    2. DOE requests comment on the values of the flow constant 
(Q0) and total pressure constant (P0) used to 
calculate the minimum fan total efficiency at a given operating point.
    3. DOE requests comments on the default transmission efficiency 
equation used in the FEI calculation.
    4. DOE requests comments on the default motor losses assumptions 
used in the FEI calculation.
    5. DOE requests comments on how manufacturers determine/would 
determine whether to redesign or eliminate a fan model that is not 
compliant at an operating point or points at which it has been sold 
previously.
    6. DOE estimated the number of redesigns at each efficiency level 
based on the sales data provided by AMCA. DOE recognizes that the AMCA 
data does not include all commercial and industrial fan sales for the 
industry, and that existing fans can operate at more selection points 
than those at which they were sold as represented in the AMCA sales 
database. DOE requests comments on whether the resulting total 
conversion costs presented in the spreadsheets released with this NODA 
are representative of the industry at the efficiency levels analyzed. 
If not, how should the number of redesigns be adjusted to be 
representative of the industry?
    7. DOE requests additional information to allow quantifying 
installation, repair, and maintenance costs for industrial and 
commercial fans.
    8. DOE requests additional information to allow quantifying 
lifetimes for industrial and commercial fans.
    9. DOE requests additional information to allow quantifying annual 
operating hours for industrial and commercial fans.
    10. DOE seeks inputs and comments on the estimates of flow and 
total pressure operating points used in the energy use analysis.
    11. DOE requests comments on how to account for consumers 
purchasing fans without providing any selection data (i.e., design flow 
and pressure values) in the LCC calculations.
    12. DOE requests comment on determining the motor horsepower based 
on 120 percent of the fan shaft input power when performing the energy 
use calculation.
    13. DOE requests comments on the method used in the LCC to identify 
fans that could be considered substitutes.
    14. DOE seeks comments and inputs regarding the use of typical fan 
curves and efficiency curves in order to calculate fan shaft input 
power at different flow and pressure values based on a fan selection's 
performance data at a single given design point.
    15. DOE seeks inputs to support the development of trends in fan 
efficiency over time in the base case and in the standards cases.
    The purpose of this NODA is to notify industry, manufacturers, 
consumer groups, efficiency advocates, government agencies, and other 
stakeholders of the publication of an analysis of potential energy 
conservation standards for commercial and industrial fans. Stakeholders 
should contact DOE for any additional information pertaining to the 
analyses performed for this NODA.

    Issued in Washington, DC, on April 21, 2015.
Kathleen B. Hogan,
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency, Energy Efficiency and 
Renewable Energy.
[FR Doc. 2015-10036 Filed 4-30-15; 8:45 am]
 BILLING CODE 6450-01-P