[Federal Register Volume 79, Number 203 (Tuesday, October 21, 2014)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 62910-62928]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2014-24971]


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DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY

10 CFR Part 431

[Docket Number EERE-2010-BT-STD-0043]
RIN 1904-AC36


Energy Conservation Program: Energy Conservation Standards for 
High-Intensity Discharge Lamps

AGENCY: Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Department of 
Energy.

ACTION: Notice of proposed determination (NOPD).

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SUMMARY: The Energy Policy and Conservation Act of 1975 (EPCA), as 
amended, requires DOE to prescribe test procedures and energy 
conservation standards for high-intensity discharge (HID) lamps for 
which it has determined that standards would be technologically 
feasible and economically justified, and would result in significant 
energy savings. In this notice, DOE proposes to determine that energy 
conservation standards for high-intensity discharge (HID) lamps do not 
meet these criteria.

DATES: DOE will accept comments, data, and information regarding this 
NOPD no later than December 22, 2014. Interested parties may further 
request, no later than November 5, 2014, a public meeting to discuss 
this NOPD. See section VII Public Participation for details.

ADDRESSES: Any comments submitted must identify the NOPD for Energy 
Conservation Standards for High-Intensity Discharge Lamps and provide 
docket number EE-2010-BT-STD-0043 and/or regulatory information number 
(RIN) 1904-AC36. Comments may be submitted using any of the following 
methods:
    1. Federal eRulemaking Portal: www.regulations.gov. Follow the 
instructions for submitting comments.
    2. Email: [email protected]. Include the docket 
number and/or RIN in the subject line of the message.
    3. Mail: Ms. Brenda Edwards, U.S. Department of Energy, Building 
Technologies Program, Mailstop EE-2J, 1000 Independence Avenue SW., 
Washington, DC 20585-0121. If possible, please submit all items on a 
CD. It is not necessary to include printed copies.
    4. Hand Delivery/Courier: Ms. Brenda Edwards, U.S. Department of 
Energy, Building Technologies Program, 950 L'Enfant Plaza SW., Suite 
600, Washington, DC 20024. Telephone: (202) 586-2945. If possible, 
please submit all items on a CD, in which case it is not necessary to 
include printed copies.
    For detailed instructions on submitting comments and additional 
information on the rulemaking process, see section VII of this document 
(Public Participation).
    Docket: The docket is available for review at www.regulations.gov, 
including Federal Register notices, framework documents, public meeting 
attendee lists and transcripts, comments, and other supporting 
documents/materials. All documents in the docket are listed in the 
www.regulations.gov index. However, not all documents listed in the 
index may be publicly available, such as information that is exempt 
from public disclosure.
    The docket Web page can be found at: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/rulemaking.aspx/ruleid/23. This Web page 
contains a link to the docket for this notice on the regulations.gov 
site. The regulations.gov Web page contains simple instructions on how 
to access all documents, including public comments, in the docket. See 
section VII for further information on how to submit comments through 
www.regulations.gov.
    For further information on how to submit a comment or review other 
public comments and the docket, contact Ms. Brenda Edwards at (202) 
586-2945 or by email: [email protected].

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT:
Ms. Lucy deButts, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy 
Efficiency and Renewable Energy, Building Technologies Program, EE-2J, 
1000 Independence Avenue SW., Washington, DC 20585-0121. Telephone: 
(202) 287-1604. Email: [email protected].
Ms. Elizabeth Kohl, U.S. Department of Energy, Office of the General 
Counsel, GC-71, 1000 Independence Avenue SW., Washington, DC 20585-
0121. Telephone: (202) 586-7796. Email: [email protected].

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Table of Contents

I. Summary of the Proposed Determination
    A. Legal Authority
    B. Background
    1. Current Standards
    2. History of Standards Rulemaking for High-Intensity Discharge 
Lamps
    3. Changes From the 2010 Determination
    a. Color
    b. Replacement Options
    c. Shipments
    d. Summary of Changes
II. Issues Affecting the Lamps Analyzed by This Determination
    A. Lamps Analyzed by This Determination
    B. Standby/Off Mode
    C. Metric
    D. Coordination of the Metal Halide Lamp Fixture and HID Lamp 
Rulemakings
III. General Discussion
    A. Test Procedures
    B. Technological Feasibility
    1. General
    2. Maximum Technologically Feasible Levels
    C. Energy Savings
    1. Determination of Savings
    2. Significance of Savings
    D. Economic Justification
IV. Methodology and Discussion
    A. Market and Technology Assessment
    1. General
    2. Equipment Classes
    3. Technology Options
    a. Mercury Vapor
    b. High-Pressure Sodium Lamps
    c. Metal Halide
    d. Summary
    B. Screening Analysis
    C. Engineering Analysis
    1. Representative Equipment Classes
    2. Baseline Lamps and Representative Lamp Types
    3. More Efficacious Substitutes
    4. Determine Efficacy Levels
    5. Scaling to Equipment Classes Not Directly Analyzed
    6. HID Systems
    D. Equipment Price Determination
    E. Markups Analysis
    F. Energy Use Analysis
    G. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis
    H. Shipments Analysis
    I. National Impact Analysis
    J. Manufacturer Impact Analysis
V. Analytical Results
    A. Economic Impacts on Individual Customers
    B. Economic Impacts on Manufacturers
    1. Industry Cash-Flow Analysis Results
    2. Impacts on Employment
    3. Impacts on Manufacturing Capacity
    4. Impacts on Subgroups of Manufacturers

[[Page 62911]]

    5. Cumulative Regulatory Burden
    C. National Impact Analysis
    1. Significance of Energy Savings
    2. Net Present Value of Customer Costs and Benefits
    D. Proposed Determination
    1. Technological Feasibility
    2. Significance of Energy Savings
    3. Economic Justification
    4. Conclusions
VI. Procedural Issues and Regulatory Review
    A. Review Under Executive Orders 12866 and 13563
    B. Review Under the Regulatory Flexibility Act
    C. Review Under the Paperwork Reduction Act
    D. Review Under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969
    E. Review Under Executive Order 13132
    F. Review Under Executive Order 12988
    G. Review Under the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995
    H. Review Under the Treasury and General Government 
Appropriations Act, 1999
    I. Review Under Executive Order 12630
    J. Review Under the Treasury and General Government 
Appropriations Act, 2001
    K. Review Under Executive Order 13211
    L. Review Under the Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review
VII. Public Participation
    A. Public Meeting Requests
    B. Submission of Comments
    C. Issues on Which DOE Seeks Comment
VIII. Approval of the Office of the Secretary

I. Summary of the Proposed Determination

    DOE proposes to determine that energy conservation standards for 
HID lamps do not meet the EPCA requirements described in section I.A, 
that such standards be technologically feasible, economically 
justified, and result in a significant conservation of energy. (42 
U.S.C. 6317(a)(1)) Specifically, DOE concludes that standards for high-
pressure sodium (HPS) lamps are not technologically feasible, and that 
standards for mercury vapor (MV) and metal halide (MH) lamps are not 
economically justified (HPS, MV, and MH lamps are subcategories of HID 
lamps). DOE's proposed determination is based on analysis of several 
efficacy levels (ELs) as a means of conserving energy. These analyses 
and DOE's results are described in the following sections of this 
notice and in the notice of proposed determination (NOPD) technical 
support document (TSD).

A. Legal Authority

    Title III of EPCA (42 U.S.C. 6291, et seq), Public Law 94-163, sets 
forth a variety of provisions designed to improve energy efficiency. 
Part C of title III, which for editorial reasons was re-designated as 
Part A-1 upon incorporation into the U.S. Code (42 U.S.C. 6311-6317), 
establishes the ``Energy Conservation Program for Certain Industrial 
Equipment,'' a program covering certain industrial equipment, which 
include the HID lamps that are the subject of this proposed 
determination. Pursuant to EPCA, DOE must prescribe test procedures and 
energy conservation standards for HID lamps for which DOE has 
determined that standards would be technologically feasible, 
economically justified, and would result in a significant conservation 
of energy. (42 U.S.C. 6317(a)(1))

B. Background

1. Current Standards
    There are currently no Federal energy conservation standards for 
HID lamps.
2. History of Standards Rulemaking for High-Intensity Discharge Lamps
    Pursuant to EPCA, in 2010 DOE published a final determination \1\ 
(hereafter the ``2010 determination'') that standards for certain HID 
lamps are technologically feasible, economically justified, and would 
result in significant energy savings (a positive determination). 75 FR 
37975 (July 1, 2010). As a result of the 2010 determination, DOE 
initiated a test procedure rulemaking for the specified lamps (see 
section III.A).
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    \1\ The final determination is available at: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/product.aspx/productid/60.
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    DOE also initiated an energy conservation standards rulemaking in 
response to the 2010 determination. On February 28, 2012, DOE published 
in the Federal Register an announcement of the availability of a 
framework document for energy conservation standards for HID lamps, as 
well as a notice of a public meeting. DOE held a public meeting on 
March 29, 2012, to receive feedback in response to the framework 
document.
    DOE gathered additional information and performed interim analyses 
to develop potential energy conservation standards for HID lamps. On 
February 28, 2013, DOE published in the Federal Register an 
announcement of the availability of the interim technical support 
document (the interim TSD) and notice of a public meeting (hereafter, 
the ``February 2013 notice'') to discuss and receive comments on the 
following matters: (1) The equipment classes DOE planned to analyze; 
(2) the analytical framework, models and tools that DOE used to 
evaluate standards; (3) the results of the interim analyses performed 
by DOE; and (4) potential standard levels that DOE could consider. 78 
FR 13566. In the February 2013 notice, DOE requested comment on issues 
that would affect energy conservation standards for HID lamps or that 
DOE should address in the following analysis stage. The interim TSD is 
available at: www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/rulemaking.aspx/ruleid/23.
    The interim TSD summarized the activities DOE undertook in 
developing standards for HID lamps. It also described the analytical 
framework that DOE uses in a typical energy conservation standards 
rulemaking, including a description of the methodology, the analytical 
tools, and the relationships among the various analyses that are part 
of the rulemaking. The interim TSD presented and described in detail 
each analysis DOE performed, including descriptions of inputs, sources, 
methodologies, and results.
    The public meeting for the interim analysis took place on April 2, 
2013. At this meeting, DOE presented the methodologies and results of 
the analyses set forth in the interim TSD. Interested parties discussed 
the following major issues at the public meeting: the scope of the 
interim analysis, equipment classes, sapphire arc tube technology, the 
engineering analysis (including the representative units, baselines, 
and candidate standard levels [CSLs]), the life-cycle cost (LCC) and 
payback period (PBP) analysis, and the shipment analysis.
    All comments received by DOE in response to the framework document 
were considered when performing the interim analysis for HID lamps. 
Chapter 2 of this NOPD TSD summarizes and responds to comments received 
on the framework document and the interim analysis.
    After revising the interim analyses based on stakeholder comments 
and updated information, DOE proposes in this NOPD to determine that 
standards for HID lamps are no longer justified based on technological 
feasibility and economic justification.
3. Changes From the 2010 Determination
    As discussed previously, DOE published a determination in 2010 that 
concluded that standards for certain HID lamps would be technologically 
feasible, economically justified, and would result in significant 
energy savings. 75 FR 37975 (July 1, 2010) Since the publication of the 
2010 determination, DOE held public meetings and received written 
comments, conducted interviews with

[[Page 62912]]

manufacturers, and conducted additional research. Based upon this new 
information, DOE revised its analyses for potential HID lamp energy 
conservation standards. The following sections summarize the major 
changes in assumptions and analyses between the 2010 determination and 
this NOPD, in which DOE proposes to determine that standards for HID 
lamps would not be technologically feasible and economically justified, 
and would not result in significant energy savings.
a. Color
    In contrast to the 2010 determination, DOE established separate 
equipment classes based on correlated color temperature (CCT) in the 
interim analysis and in this NOPD. CCT represents the color appearance 
of a light source and is expressed in kelvins (K). The higher the CCT, 
the cooler or more blue the light appears, and the lower the CCT, the 
warmer or more red the light appears. HID lamps are available with a 
wide range of CCT values depending on lamp type and design. DOE's 
analysis of commercially available lamp catalog data concluded that CCT 
is correlated with lamp efficacy. DOE determined that higher-CCT lamps 
were less efficacious than lower CCT lamps of the same wattage. Because 
CCT is an approximation of the color appearance of a lamp, customers 
typically specify different CCTs for different applications. Some lamp 
substitutions are not suitable because certain applications have 
specific color requirements (typically indoor applications that demand 
white light). Because CCT affects HID lamp efficacy and impacts 
consumer utility, DOE has established separate equipment classes based 
on CCT.
    DOE established equipment classes based on three different ranges 
of CCT. HPS lamps were included in the 1900 K-2800 K equipment class 
while MH lamps were included in the 2800 K-4500 K or 4500 K-7000 K 
equipment classes. DOE investigated higher efficacy replacement options 
for HPS lamps such that customers could save energy while maintaining 
the utility (e.g., CCT) of the lamp type. As discussed in section 
IV.A.3, DOE concluded no technology options exist for improving the 
efficacy of HPS lamps. Therefore, DOE tentatively determined standards 
for HPS lamps are not technologically feasible in this NOPD.
b. Replacement Options
    In the 2010 determination, DOE assumed that any customer purchasing 
a compliant lamp would choose a reduced-wattage lamp more efficacious 
than their existing non-compliant lamp. However, DOE received feedback 
from manufacturer interviews that not all customers would choose to 
reduce wattage in response to standards for HID lamps. Some customers 
would choose to continue using their existing wattage (e.g., a more-
efficacious, increased lumen output lamp that complies with standards, 
but has the same wattage) for the convenience and lower cost of not 
purchasing a new fixture and/or ballast that may be necessary for use 
with the reduced-wattage lamp. During interviews, manufacturers also 
indicated that some customers may not understand the metrics used to 
measure light output and would opt to keep lamps at their existing 
wattage because wattage is the metric they most commonly consider for 
lighting. The result for these customers would be an increase in light 
output, but no energy savings. As a result of this information, DOE 
models a percentage of customers replacing lamps with more efficacious, 
equal wattage lamps in this NOPD. The results of the model indicate a 
reduced potential for energy savings and corresponding operating cost 
savings associated with HID lamp standards. See chapter 5 of the NOPD 
TSD for more details about the engineering analysis and chapter 12 of 
the NOPD TSD for more detail about the national impact analysis (NIA).
c. Shipments
    For the 2010 determination, DOE calculated the installed base of 
HID lamps using historical shipments data provided by the National 
Electrical Manufacturers Association (NEMA). DOE projected future lamp 
shipments based on the lamp lifetimes and operating scenarios developed 
for the LCC and PBP analysis, as well as estimated market and 
substitution trends in the base case and standards case. 75 FR 37975, 
37981 (July 1, 2010). The shipments analysis and NIA for this NOPD (see 
sections IV.H and IV.I) draw upon the same historical NEMA lamp 
shipments data in calculating the installed base of HID lamps, 
supplemented with additional shipments data and manufacturer input on 
HID market trends. DOE's current projections illustrate a sharper 
decline in and lower overall HID lamp shipments than projected in the 
2010 determination.
d. Summary of Changes
    Since the publication of the 2010 determination, DOE received 
additional information from public meetings, written comments, 
manufacturer interviews, and further research. This new information led 
to the following major changes presented in this NOPD: (1) The 
determination that equipment classes should be separated based on CCT; 
(2) the introduction of a percentage of customers replacing lamps with 
more efficacious, equal wattage lamps in response to potential 
standards; and (3) the revision downward of projected HID lamp 
shipments in the shipments analysis, based on supplemental data and 
collected manufacturer input on HID market trends. As a result of the 
update regarding separate equipment classes for CCT, DOE tentatively 
determined that standards for HPS lamps are not technologically 
feasible in this NOPD. Additionally, as a result of the updates 
regarding customers replacing lamps with equal wattage lamps and 
supplemental shipment data, the NIA yielded negative NPVs in this NOPD 
(see section V.C for a discussion of NIA results in the NOPD). As such, 
DOE tentatively proposes to determine that standards for MV and MH 
lamps would not be economically justified.

II. Issues Affecting the Lamps Analyzed by This Determination

A. Lamps Analyzed by This Determination

    HID is the generic name for a family of lamps including MV, MH, and 
HPS lamps. Although low-pressure sodium lamps are often included in the 
family, the definition of HID lamp set forth in EPCA requires the arc 
tube wall loading to be greater than three watts per square centimeter. 
(42 U.S.C. 6291(46)) Because low-pressure sodium lamps do not satisfy 
this requirement, they are not considered HID lamps according to the 
statute, and are therefore not considered in this NOPD. Definitions for 
these lamps are discussed in chapter 2 of the NOPD TSD.
    DOE first analyzed the potential energy savings of the HID lamp 
types that fall within the EPCA definition of ``HID lamp'', as well as 
the technological feasibility of more efficient lamps for each type. 
For the HID lamps that passed those criteria, DOE conducted a full 
economic analysis with the LCC analysis, NIA, and manufacturer impact 
analysis (MIA) (see sections IV.G, IV.I, and IV.J) to determine whether 
standards would be economically justified.
    After considering the comments on the interim analysis, and 
additional feedback from manufacturer interviews, DOE determined that 
there are no design options to increase the efficacy of HPS lamps, 
indicating that standards for this lamp technology are not

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technologically feasible. Specifically, DOE determined that sapphire 
arc tube technology is not a valid technology option for increased 
efficacy in HPS lamps (see section IV.B for further details).
    Available information indicates that energy conservation standards 
for certain MV and MH lamps are both technologically feasible and would 
save a significant amount of energy. Therefore, DOE conducted the full 
economic analysis for those lamp types to determine whether standards 
would be economically justified. Specifically, DOE analyzed the 
economic justification of potential energy conservation standards for 
MH lamps with a rated wattage of greater than or equal to 50 watts (W) 
and less than or equal to 2000 W, and CCTs greater than or equal to 
2800 K and less than 7000 K. DOE also analyzed the economic 
justification of energy conservation standards for MV lamps with a 
rated wattage greater than or equal to 50 W and less than or equal to 
1000 W, and CCTs greater than or equal to 3200 K and less than or equal 
to 6800 K. Table II.1 provides a summary of the HID lamps analyzed.

               Table II.1--CCT and Wattage Ranges Analyzed
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                Lamp type                     Wattage           CCT
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MV......................................     50 W-1000 W  3200 K-6800 K.
MH......................................     50 W-2000 W  2800 K-6999 K.
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    In summary, DOE excluded the following HID lamps from its analysis 
based on those lamps not meeting the criteria of potential for 
significant energy savings or technological feasibility:
     HPS lamps;
     directional HID lamps;
     self-ballasted HID lamps;
     lamps designed to operate exclusively on electronic 
ballasts;
     high-color rendering index (CRI) lamps (a CRI greater than 
or equal to 95);
     colored MH lamps (a CRI of less than 40);
     MV lamps that are double-ended, have a non-screw base, and 
have no outer bulb;
     HID lamps that have a CCT of 5000 K-6999 K, have a non-
screw base, and have non-T-shaped bulbs; and
     electrodeless HID lamps.
    See chapter 2 of the NOPD TSD for a more detailed discussion of 
which HID lamps did and did not meet the criteria for analysis and of 
the rationale behind those selections.

B. Standby/Off Mode

    EPCA defines active mode as the condition in which an energy-using 
piece of equipment is connected to a main power source, has been 
activated, and provides one or more main functions (42 U.S.C. 
6295)(gg)(1)(A)). Standby mode is defined as the condition in which an 
energy-using piece of equipment is connected to a main power source and 
offers one or more of the following user-oriented or protective 
functions: facilitating the activation or deactivation of other 
functions (including active mode) by remote switch (including remote 
control), internal sensor, or timer; or providing continuous functions, 
including information or status displays (including clocks) or sensor-
based functions. Id. Off mode is defined as the condition in which an 
energy-using piece of equipment is connected to a main power source, 
and is not providing any standby or active mode function. Id.
    DOE conducted an analysis of the applicability of standby mode and 
off mode energy use for HID lamps. DOE tentatively determined that HID 
lamps that are subject of this NOPD do not operate in standby mode or 
off mode. HID lamps do not offer any secondary user-oriented or 
protective functions or continuous standby mode functions. Because all 
energy use of HID lamps is accounted for in the active mode, DOE does 
not analyze potential standards for lamp operation in standby and off 
mode in this NOPD.

C. Metric

    To analyze energy conservation standards related to HID lamps, DOE 
must select a metric for rating the performance of the lamps. In the 
framework document and interim analysis, DOE considered a number of 
potential metrics for the energy conservation standards of HID lamps 
and requested comment. In response to comments received and based on 
DOE's own analysis, DOE used initial efficacy for consideration and 
analysis of energy conservation standards for HID lamps. For a full 
description of metrics explored and discussion of stakeholder comments, 
see chapter 2 of the NOPD TSD.

D. Coordination of the Metal Halide Lamp Fixture and HID Lamp 
Rulemakings

    For this NOPD, DOE continued to use shared data sources between the 
metal halide lamp fixture (MHLF) standards rulemaking \2\ and this HID 
lamp determination. DOE's analysis of HID lamps assumes that MHLFs 
purchased after the compliance date of the MHLF final rule use ballasts 
compliant with those standards.
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    \2\ A final rule for MHLF energy conservation standards was 
published in February 2014. For more information on the MHLF 
standards rulemaking, see http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/rulemaking.aspx/ruleid/16.
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III. General Discussion

A. Test Procedures

    EPCA sets forth generally applicable criteria and procedures for 
DOE's adoption and amendment of test procedures. (42 U.S.C. 6314) 
Manufacturers of covered equipment must use these test procedures to 
certify to DOE that their equipment complies with EPCA energy 
conservation standards and to quantify the efficiency of their 
equipment. Also, these test procedures must be used whenever testing is 
required in an enforcement action to determine whether covered 
equipment complies with EPCA standards.
    Based on comments received on the HID lamps test procedures notice 
of proposed rulemaking (NOPR) and subsequent additional research, DOE 
proposed revisions to and clarification of the proposed HID lamp test 
procedures. DOE published these revisions and clarifications in a test 
procedure supplemental notice of proposed rulemaking (SNOPR).\3\ 79 FR 
29631 (May 22, 2014). The analysis in this NOPD is based upon the test 
procedures put forward in the test procedure SNOPR.
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    \3\ The HID lamp test procedure SNOPR is available at: http://www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/rulemaking.aspx/ruleid/21.
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B. Technological Feasibility

1. General
    In this NOPD, DOE conducted a screening analysis based on 
information gathered on all current technology options and prototype 
designs that could improve the efficacy of HID lamps. As the first step 
in such an analysis, DOE developed a list of technology options for 
consideration in consultation with manufacturers, design engineers, and 
other interested parties. DOE then determined which of those means for 
improving efficacy are technologically feasible. DOE considers 
technologies incorporated in commercially available products or in 
working prototypes to be technologically feasible, pursuant to 10 CFR 
part 430, subpart C, appendix A, section 4(a)(4)(i).
    After DOE has determined that particular technology options are

[[Page 62914]]

technologically feasible, it further evaluates each technology option 
in light of the following additional screening criteria: (1) 
Practicability to manufacture, install, and service; (2) adverse 
impacts on product utility or availability; and (3) adverse impacts on 
health or safety. 10 CFR part 430, subpart C, appendix A, section 
4(a)(4)(ii)-(iv). For further details on the screening analysis, see 
section IV.B of this NOPD and chapters 2 and 4 of the NOPD TSD.
2. Maximum Technologically Feasible Levels
    When DOE analyzes a new standard for a type or class of covered 
product, it must determine the maximum improvement in energy efficiency 
or maximum reduction in energy use that is technologically feasible for 
that product. (42 U.S.C. 6295(p)(1)) Accordingly, in the engineering 
analysis, DOE determined the maximum technologically feasible (``max-
tech'') improvements in energy efficacy for HID lamps, using the design 
parameters for the most efficacious products available on the market or 
in working prototypes. (See chapter 5 of the NOPD TSD.) The max-tech 
levels that DOE determined for this NOPD are described in chapters 2 
and 5 of the NOPD TSD.

C. Energy Savings

1. Determination of Savings
    For each EL in each equipment class, DOE projected energy savings 
for the equipment that is the subject of this NOPD purchased in the 30-
year period that would begin in the expected year of compliance with 
any new standards (2017-2046). The savings are measured over the entire 
lifetime of equipment purchased in the 30-year analysis period.\4\ DOE 
quantified the energy savings attributable to each EL as the difference 
in energy consumption between each standards case and the base case. 
The base case represents a projection of energy consumption in the 
absence of new mandatory efficacy standards, and it considers market 
forces and policies that affect demand for more efficient equipment.
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    \4\ In the past DOE presented energy savings results for only 
the 30-year period that begins in the year of compliance. In the 
calculation of economic impacts, however, DOE considered operating 
cost savings measured over the entire lifetime of equipment 
purchased in the 30-year period. DOE has chosen to modify its 
presentation of national energy savings to be consistent with the 
approach used for its national economic analysis.
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    DOE used its NIA spreadsheet model to estimate energy savings from 
potential standards for the equipment that are the subject of this 
NOPD. The NIA spreadsheet model (described in section IV.I of this 
notice) calculates energy savings in site energy, which is the energy 
directly consumed by equipment at the locations where they are used. 
DOE reports national energy savings on an annual basis in terms of the 
source (primary) energy savings, which is the savings in the energy 
that is used to generate and transmit the site energy. To convert site 
energy to source energy, DOE derived annual conversion factors from the 
model used to prepare the Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) 
Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013).
    DOE has begun to also estimate full-fuel-cycle (FFC) energy 
savings. 76 FR 51282 (August 18, 2011), as amended at 77 FR 49701 
(August 17, 2012). The FFC metric includes the energy consumed in 
extracting, processing, and transporting primary fuels, and thus 
presents a more complete picture of the impacts of energy efficiency 
standards. DOE's evaluation of FFC savings is driven in part by the 
National Academy of Science's (NAS) report on FFC measurement 
approaches for DOE's Appliance Standards Program.\5\ The NAS report 
discusses that FFC was primarily intended for energy efficiency 
standards rulemakings where multiple fuels may be used by particular 
equipment. In the case of this NOPD pertaining to HID lamps, only a 
single fuel--electricity--is consumed by the equipment. DOE's approach 
is based on the calculation of an FFC multiplier for each of the energy 
types used by covered equipment. Although the addition of FFC energy 
savings in rulemakings is consistent with the recommendations, the 
methodology for estimating FFC does not project how fuel markets would 
respond to a potential standards rulemaking. The FFC methodology simply 
estimates how much additional energy, and in turn how many tons of 
emissions, may be displaced if the estimated fuel were not consumed by 
the equipment covered in this NOPD. It is also important to note that 
inclusion of FFC savings does not affect DOE's choice of potential 
standards. For more information on FFC energy savings, see section IV.I 
of this notice, and chapter 11 and appendix 11A of the NOPD TSD.
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    \5\ ``Review of Site (Point-of-Use) and Full-Fuel-Cycle 
Measurement Approaches to DOE/EERE Building Appliance Energy-
Efficiency Standards,'' (Academy report) was completed in May 2009 
and included five recommendations. A copy of the study can be 
downloaded at: www.nap.edu/catalog.php?record_id=12670.
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2. Significance of Savings
    To adopt standards that are more stringent for a covered product, 
DOE must determine that such action would result in ``significant'' 
energy savings. 42 U.S.C. 6295(o)(3)(B) Although the term 
``significant'' is not defined in the Act, the U.S. Court of Appeals, 
in Natural Resources Defense Council v. Herrington, 768 F.2d 1355, 1373 
(D.C. Cir. 1985), indicated that Congress intended ``significant'' 
energy savings in the context of EPCA to be savings that were not 
``genuinely trivial.'' DOE analyzed the energy savings for each 
potential standard level for each equipment class in this NOPD 
(presented in section V.C.1).

D. Economic Justification

    In determining whether potential energy conservation standards for 
HID lamps would be economically justified, DOE analyzed the results of 
the following analyses: (1) A market and technology assessment that 
characterizes where and how HID lamps are used; (2) an engineering 
analysis that estimates the relationship between product costs and 
energy use; (3) an LCC and PBP analysis that estimates the costs and 
benefits to users from increased efficacy in HID lamps; (4) an NIA that 
estimates potential energy savings on a national scale and potential 
economic costs and benefits that would result from improving energy 
efficacy in the considered HID lamps; and (5) an MIA that determines 
the potential impact new standards for HID lamps would have on 
manufacturers.

IV. Methodology and Discussion

A. Market and Technology Assessment

1. General
    In conducting the market and technology assessment for this NOPD, 
DOE developed information that provides an overall picture of the 
market for the equipment concerned, including the purpose of the 
products, the industry structure, and the market characteristics. This 
activity included both quantitative and qualitative assessments based 
on publicly available information. The subjects addressed in the market 
and technology assessment for this NOPD include: Equipment classes and 
manufacturers; historical shipments; market trends; regulatory and non-
regulatory programs; and technologies that could improve the efficacy 
of the HID lamps under examination. See chapter 3 of the NOPD TSD for 
further discussion of the market and technology assessment.

[[Page 62915]]

2. Equipment Classes
    For this NOPD, DOE divided equipment into classes by: (a) The type 
of energy used, (b) the capacity of the equipment, or (c) any other 
performance-related features that justifies different standard levels, 
such as features affecting consumer utility. (42 U.S.C. 6295(q)) DOE 
then considers establishing separate standard levels for each equipment 
class based on the criteria set forth in 42 U.S.C. 6295(o).
    In this NOPD, DOE analyzed CCT, wattage, bulb finish, and luminaire 
characteristics as the equipment-class-setting factors. DOE analyzed 24 
equipment classes for HID lamps, as shown in Table IV.1. See chapters 2 
and 3 of the NOPD TSD for a more detailed discussion on equipment 
classes analyzed for HID lamps.\6\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \6\ When writing out the equipment class CCT ranges of >=2800 K 
and <=4500 K and of >4500 K and <7000 K in text, DOE uses the 
shorthand 2800 K-4500 K and 4501 K-6999 K, respectively. Similarly, 
when writing out the equipment class wattage ranges of >=50 W and 
<=400 W, >400 W and <=1000 W, and >1000 W and <=2000 W in text, DOE 
uses the shorthand 50 W-400 W, 401 W-1000 W, and 1001 W-2000 W, 
respectively.

                                 Table IV.1--Equipment Classes Analyzed in NOPD
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           CCT Range K                  Wattage W             Bulb finish *        Luminaire  characteristic **
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>=2800 and <=4500................  >=50 and <=400.....  Clear...................  Enclosed.
                                                                                  Open.
                                                        Coated..................  Enclosed.
                                                                                  Open.
                                   >400 and <=1000....  Clear...................  Enclosed.
                                                                                  Open.
                                                        Coated..................  Enclosed.
                                                                                  Open.
                                   >1000 and <=2000...  Clear...................  Enclosed.
                                                                                  Open.
                                                        Coated..................  Enclosed.
                                                                                  Open.
>4500 and <7000..................  >=50 and <=400.....  Clear...................  Enclosed.
                                                                                  Open.
                                                        Coated..................  Enclosed.
                                                                                  Open.
                                   >400 and <=1000....  Clear...................  Enclosed.
                                                                                  Open.
                                                        Coated..................  Enclosed.
                                                                                  Open.
                                   >1000 and <=2000...  Clear...................  Enclosed.
                                                                                  Open.
                                                        Coated..................  Enclosed.
                                                                                  Open.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* MV lamps regardless of bulb finish are placed in the clear equipment classes for their respective CCT and
  wattage.
** MV lamps are placed in the enclosed equipment classes for their respective wattage and CCT.

3. Technology Options
    The following sections detail the technology options that DOE is 
analyzing in this NOPD as viable means of increasing the efficacy of 
HID lamps.
a. Mercury Vapor
    MV ballasts, other than specialty application MV ballasts, have 
been banned from import or production in the United States since 
January 1, 2008. (42 U.S.C. 6295(ee)) This ban effectively limits the 
installation of new MV fixtures and ballasts, meaning the only MV lamps 
currently sold are replacement lamps. DOE understands there is limited 
industry design emphasis on MV lamps and that there are limited methods 
to improving the efficacy of MV lamps. DOE found that the only pathway 
to increase efficacy is a change of technology to MH lamps, and 
considers a change of technology as the sole technology option for MV 
lamps in this NOPD.
b. High-Pressure Sodium Lamps
    HPS lamps are already very efficacious (up to 150 lumens per watt), 
but have intrinsically poor color quality. DOE did not identify any 
technology options currently utilized in commercially available HPS 
lamps. In the interim analysis, DOE identified academic papers that 
indicated potential increases in efficacy were possible by constructing 
the arc tubes out of a sapphire material, or single crystal aluminum 
oxide. Several manufacturers produced HPS lamps with a sapphire arc 
tube beginning in the late 1970s, but these lamps have since been 
discontinued.
    In the interim analysis, DOE found that sapphire had five percent 
greater transmission of light compared to the traditionally used 
polycrystalline alumina (PCA) and equated this with a potential five 
percent increase in lamp efficacy. However, DOE has since received 
feedback from manufacturers that the increase in transmission 
associated with using sapphire material instead of PCA does not 
necessarily result in an equal increase in efficacy. This is because 
the material does not transmit all wavelengths uniformly, which affects 
the perceived brightness of the light. Because these lamps are no 
longer manufactured, DOE cannot empirically validate the potential 
increase in efficacy using sapphire arc tubes. Additionally, DOE has 
received feedback that HPS lamps using sapphire arc tubes are much more 
susceptible to catastrophic failure and would require enclosed fixtures 
for safe operation. Currently all HPS lamps that are commercially 
available can be used in open fixtures. An enclosed fixture would 
reduce the efficacy of the sapphire HPS system (due to absorption in 
the lens used to enclose the fixture) and likely negate any small 
increase in efficacy gained from using sapphire arc tubes.
    For these reasons, DOE does not believe that the use of sapphire 
arc

[[Page 62916]]

tubes would increase the efficacy of HPS lamps in practice. As such, 
DOE no longer finds sapphire arc tubes to be a valid technology option 
for HPS lamps in this NOPD.
c. Metal Halide
    DOE identified a number of technology options that could improve MH 
lamp efficacy. These technology options include improving arc tube 
design through the use of ceramic arc tubes, optimization of the arc 
tube, and optimization of the arc tube fill gas.
d. Summary
    Table IV.2 summarizes the technology options identified for HID 
lamps in this NOPD. For more detail on the technology options that DOE 
considered to improve MV, HPS, and MH lamp efficacy, see chapters 2 and 
3 of the NOPD TSD.

              Table IV.2--NOPD HID Lamp Technology Options
------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Lamp type       Technology option            Description
------------------------------------------------------------------------
MV..................  Change Lamp Type.  Use MH technology instead of MV
                                          technology.
MH..................  Ceramic Arc Tubes  Use CMH technology instead of
                                          quartz MH lamps.
                      Arc Tube           Design the shape of the arc
                       Optimization.      tube so that it facilitates an
                                          increase in MH vapor pressure;
                                          change the thickness of
                                          quartz, optimize electrode
                                          positioning, improve the
                                          purity of the materials; and
                                          improve the manufacturing
                                          processes to ensure the
                                          consistency and quality of the
                                          arc tube construction.
                      Fill Gas           Optimize the gas fill pressure
                       Optimization.      and chemistry.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

B. Screening Analysis

    DOE consults with industry, technical experts, and other interested 
parties to develop a list of technology options for consideration. In 
the screening analysis, DOE determines which technology options to 
consider further and which to screen out.
    Appendix A to subpart C of 10 CFR part 430, ``Procedures, 
Interpretations, and Policies for Consideration of New or Revised 
Energy Conservation Standards for Consumer Products'' (the Process 
Rule), sets forth procedures to guide DOE in its consideration and 
promulgation of new or revised energy conservation standards. These 
procedures elaborate on the statutory criteria provided in 42 U.S.C. 
6295(o) and, in part, eliminate problematic technologies early in the 
process of prescribing an energy conservation standard. In particular, 
sections 4(b)(4) and 5(b) of the Process Rule provide guidance to DOE 
for determining which technology options are unsuitable for further 
consideration: Technological feasibility, practicability to 
manufacture, install and service, adverse impacts on product utility or 
product availability, and adverse impacts on health or safety.
    For MH lamps, DOE identified ceramic arc tubes as a technology 
option. While CMH lamps are commercially available from 50 W-400 W, 
they are not manufactured from 401 W-2000 W.\7\ DOE learned from 
manufacturers that it is technologically possible to create CMH lamps 
in this wattage range on an individual scale in laboratory conditions. 
However, the difficulty in mass manufacturing these lamps would result 
in a very costly lamp which may not be able to be produced at a large 
enough scale to serve the entire market. Because of this, DOE 
determined that ceramic arc tubes from 401 W-2000 W do not pass the 
criterion that they be practicable to manufacture, install, and 
service. In this NOPD, DOE does not consider ceramic arc tubes as 
design options for MH lamps from 401 W-2000 W.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \7\ There is one example of a CMH lamp in this wattage range. It 
is an 860 W CMH lamp that is designed to be used on a 1000 W ballast 
and can operate on both probe-start and pulse-start ballasts. 
Because this lamp employs proprietary technology, DOE does not use 
this lamp as an example of CMH lamps being commercially available 
from 401 W-1000 W.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    All other technology options for MV and MH lamps meet the screening 
criteria and are considered as design options in the engineering 
analysis. These design options are summarized in Table IV.3. Chapters 2 
and 4 of the NOPD TSD provide additional information regarding the 
design options considered in the NOPD.

                Table IV.3--NOPD HID Lamp Design Options
------------------------------------------------------------------------
      Lamp type       Technology option            Description
------------------------------------------------------------------------
MV..................  Change Lamp Type.  Use MH technology instead of MV
                                          technology.
MH..................  Ceramic Arc Tubes  Use CMH technology instead of
                                          quartz MH lamps.
                      Arc Tube           Design the shape of the arc
                       Optimization.      tube so that it facilitates an
                                          increase in MH vapor pressure;
                                          change the thickness of
                                          quartz, alter the fill gas
                                          chemistry; optimize electrode
                                          positioning; improve the
                                          purity of the materials; and
                                          improve the manufacturing
                                          processes to ensure the
                                          consistency and quality of the
                                          arc tube construction.
                      Fill Gas           Optimize the gas fill pressure
                       Optimization.      and chemistry.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

C. Engineering Analysis

    For this NOPD, DOE derived ELs in the engineering analysis and lamp 
end-user prices in the equipment price determination. The engineering 
analysis focuses on selecting commercially available lamps that 
incorporate design options that improve efficacy. The following 
discussion summarizes the general steps and results of the engineering 
analysis.
1. Representative Equipment Classes
    When multiple equipment classes exist, to streamline analysis, DOE 
selects certain classes as ``representative,'' primarily because of 
their high market volumes and unique performance characteristics. DOE 
then adapts the ELs from representative equipment classes to those 
equipment classes it does not analyze directly.

[[Page 62917]]

Table IV.4 lists the equipment classes that DOE selected as 
representative.

                           Table IV.4--Representative Equipment Classes for HID Lamps
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
           CCT Range K                  Wattage W             Bulb finish *         Luminaire characteristic **
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
>=2800 and <=4500................  >=50 and <=400.....  Clear...................  Enclosed.
                                   >400 and <=1000....  Clear...................  Enclosed.
                                   >1000 and <=2000...  Clear...................  Enclosed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* MV lamps regardless of bulb finish are placed in the clear equipment classes for their respective CCT and
  wattage.
** MV lamps are placed in the enclosed equipment classes for their respective wattage and CCT.

2. Baseline Lamps and Representative Lamp Types
    Because no federal energy conservation standards exist for HID 
lamps, the baseline lamps represent the most common, least efficacious 
lamps sold within the equipment class. For each baseline lamp, DOE 
selected more efficacious replacement lamps to measure potential 
energy-saving improvements. DOE refers to the baseline lamp and its 
more efficacious replacements collectively herein as a ``representative 
lamp type.'' The representative lamp type is named by its baseline 
unit. For example, the 400 W MV representative lamp type refers to the 
400 W MV baseline lamp and all of its more efficacious replacements.
    DOE uses performance data presented in manufacturer catalogs to 
determine lamp efficacy. DOE also considers other lamp characteristics 
in choosing the most appropriate baseline for each equipment class. 
These characteristics include the wattage and technology type (i.e., MH 
or MV), among others. For some of the representative lamp types, DOE 
selects multiple baseline models to ensure consideration of different 
high-volume lamps and their associated customer economics. For example, 
although MV lamps are the least efficacious products available, the HID 
market has largely shifted away from MV lamps and customers of MH lamp-
and-ballast systems incur different costs than customers of MV lamp-
and-ballast systems. For these reasons, DOE selects both MV and MH 
lamps as baselines for certain equipment classes.
    Table IV.5 lists the baseline lamps and representative lamp types. 
See chapters 2 and 5 of the NOPD TSD for additional detail.

                                                                    Table IV.5--Baseline Lamps and Representative Lamp Types
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                                                                                                       Baseline
            CCT Range                     Wattage              Bulb finish *          Luminaire characteristic **       Representative lamp type           Baseline lamp type          wattage
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2800 K-4500 K....................  50 W-400 W..........  Clear....................  Enclosed.......................  100 W MV......................  MV............................          100
                                                                                                                                                     MH............................           70
                                                                                                                     175 W MV......................  MV............................          175
                                                                                                                                                     MH............................          150
                                                                                                                     250 W MV......................  MV............................          250
                                                                                                                                                     MH............................          175
                                                                                                                     400 W MV......................  MV............................          400
                                                                                                                                                     MH............................          250
                                                                                                                     400 W MH......................  MH............................          400
                                   401 W-1000 W........  Clear....................  Enclosed.......................  1000 W MV.....................  MV............................         1000
                                                                                                                     1000 W MH.....................  MH............................         1000
                                   1001 W-2000 W.......  Clear....................  Enclosed.......................  2000 W MH.....................  MH............................         2000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* MV lamps regardless of bulb finish are placed in the clear equipment classes for their respective CCT and wattage.
** MV lamps are placed in the enclosed equipment classes for their respective wattage and CCT.

3. More Efficacious Substitutes
    DOE selects commercially available HID lamps with efficacies above 
the baseline as replacements for the baseline model(s) in each 
representative equipment class. When selecting more efficacious 
substitute lamps, DOE considers only design options that meet the 
criteria outlined in the screening analysis (see section IV.B). 
Depending on the equipment class, DOE analyzes standard efficacy quartz 
MH, high efficacy quartz MH, and CMH lamps as more efficacious 
substitutes for the baseline lamps.
    In this NOPD, DOE considers a number of different potential 
pathways a customer might choose when identifying replacements that are 
more efficacious. When purchasing a new and compliant lamp, a customer 
can purchase just a new lamp, a new lamp-and-ballast system, or an 
entirely new fixture. For each of these options, a customer can also 
choose between keeping the lighting system at the wattage they already 
had or reducing the wattage of the lighting system. See chapters 2 and 
5 of the NOPD TSD for additional detail.
4. Determine Efficacy Levels
    DOE develops ELs based on: (1) The design options associated with 
the equipment class studied and (2) the max-tech EL for that class. 
DOE's ELs are based on catalog data. Table IV.6 summarizes the EL 
equations for each representative equipment class. More information on 
the described ELs can be found in chapters 2 and 5 of the NOPD TSD.

[[Page 62918]]



                  Table IV.6--Efficacy Level Equations for the Representative Equipment Classes
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        Minimum initial efficacy [dagger] (lm/W)
    Representative equipment class    --------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                 EL1                      EL2                      EL3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2800 K-4500 K, 50 W-400 W, clear/      38.5 x P\0.1350\.......  44.4 x P\0.1350\.......  40.4 x P\0.1809\
 enclosed.
2800 K-4500 K, 401 W-1000 W, clear/    0.0116 x P + 81.8......  0.0173 x P + 92.8......  N/A
 enclosed.
2800 K-4500 K, 1001 W-2000 W, clear/   93.4...................  N/A....................  N/A
 enclosed.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* MV lamps are placed in the clear equipment classes for their respective CCT and wattage regardless of bulb
  finish.
** MV lamps are placed in the enclosed equipment classes for their respective wattage and CCT.
[dagger] P is defined as the rated wattage of the lamp.

5. Scaling to Equipment Classes Not Directly Analyzed
    For the equipment classes not analyzed directly, DOE scaled the ELs 
from the representative to non-representative equipment classes based 
on efficacy ratios observed in catalog data. For example, DOE 
calculated an average percentage difference in efficacy between lamps 
in different equipment classes (one representative and one non-
representative) and used this percentage difference to scale the ELs 
from the representative to the non-representative equipment classes. 
Table IV.7 lists the scaling factors calculated in the NOPD analysis.

                       Table IV.7--Scaling Factors
------------------------------------------------------------------------
     Bulb finish        Luminaire characteristic            CCT
------------------------------------------------------------------------
           0.945                       0.950                  0.812
------------------------------------------------------------------------
* To calculate the efficacy requirement for a scaled equipment class,
  the representative equipment class equation is multiplied by each
  scaling factor of the characteristics of the equipment class that
  differ from the representative class.

6. HID Systems
    In this NOPD, DOE is only analyzing standards for HID lamps. 
However, HID lamps are just one component of an HID lighting system. 
HID lamps must be paired with specific ballasts to regulate the current 
and power supplied to the lamp. These lamp-and-ballast systems are then 
housed in an HID lamp fixture \8\ to protect the components, enable 
mounting, and direct the light to the target area. When considering 
changes to HID lamps, DOE recognizes the importance of also analyzing 
the impact on both the ballast and the fixture. Additional components 
may also be required if placing a new lamp-and-ballast system in an 
existing fixture, including an appropriate lamp socket and ballast 
brackets. See chapters 2, 5, and appendices 5A and 5B of the NOPD TSD 
for additional detail.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \8\ Here, DOE uses the term ``fixture'' to refer to the 
enclosure that houses the lamp and ballast.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

D. Equipment Price Determination

    The equipment price determination describes the methodology 
followed in developing end-user prices for HID lamps and manufacturer 
selling prices (MSPs) for ballasts, fixtures, and retrofit kit 
components (brackets and sockets) analyzed in this NOPD. DOE developed 
ballast and fixture MSPs in addition to lamp MSPs because a change of 
ballast and fixture is often required when switching to a more 
efficacious lamp. In addition, DOE developed MSPs for brackets and 
sockets packaged in lamp-and-ballast retrofit kits because customers 
will sometimes also have the option of keeping the fixture housing and 
installing a new lamp-and-ballast system. These systems will often 
require a change in the socket and brackets used for mounting the 
ballast.
    For HID lamps, DOE developed three sets of discounts from blue-book 
prices, representing low (State procurement), medium (electrical 
distributors), and high (Internet retailers) end-user lamp prices. For 
MH ballasts, fixtures, sockets, and brackets, DOE performed teardown 
analyses to estimate manufacturer production costs (MPCs) and a 
manufacturer markup analysis to estimate the MSPs. For additional 
detail on the equipment price determination, see chapters 2, 6, and 
appendix 6A of the NOPD TSD.

E. Markups Analysis

    Markups are multipliers that relate MSPs to end-user purchase 
prices, and vary with the distribution channel through which purchase 
the equipment. DOE estimated end-user prices for representative HID 
lamp designs directly, rather than develop MSPs from a bill of 
materials and manufacturer markup analysis (NOPD TSD chapter 6).\9\ 
However, DOE also estimated price markups to calculate end-user prices 
from MSPs for HID ballasts and fixtures as inputs to the LCC and PBP 
analysis, and the NIA (chapters 9 and 11, respectively, of the NOPD 
TSD). Appendix 6A of the NOPD TSD describes the process by which DOE 
developed MPCs and MSPs for HID ballasts and fixtures. Chapters 2 and 7 
of the NOPD TSD provide additional detail on the markups analysis for 
developing end-user prices for HID ballasts and fixtures.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \9\ For this NOPD, DOE used estimated markups to develop MSPs 
for HID lamps for the MIA (see chapter 12 of the NOPD TSD).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

F. Energy Use Analysis

    For the energy use analysis, DOE estimated the energy use of HID 
lamp-and-ballast systems in actual field conditions. The energy use 
analysis provided the basis for other DOE analyses, particularly 
assessments of the energy savings and the savings in operating costs 
that could result from DOE's adoption of potential new standard levels. 
DOE multiplied annual usage (in hours per year) by the lamp-and-ballast 
system input power (in watts) to develop annual energy use estimates. 
Chapters 2 and 8 of the NOPD TSD provide a more detailed description of 
DOE's energy use analysis.

G. Life-Cycle Cost and Payback Period Analysis

    DOE conducted the LCC and PBP analysis to evaluate the economic 
effects of potential energy conservation standards for HID lamps on 
individual customers. For any given EL, DOE calculated the PBP and the 
change in LCC relative to an estimated baseline equipment EL. The LCC 
is the total customer expense over the life of the

[[Page 62919]]

equipment, consisting of purchase, installation, and operating costs 
(expenses for energy use, maintenance, and repair). To compute the 
operating costs, DOE discounted future operating costs to the time of 
purchase and summed them over the lifetime of the equipment. The PBP is 
the estimated amount of time (in years) it takes customers to recover 
the increased purchase cost (including installation) of more 
efficacious equipment through lower operating costs. DOE calculates the 
PBP by dividing the change in purchase cost (normally higher) by the 
change in average annual operating cost (normally lower) that results 
from the more stringent standard. Chapters 2 and 9, and appendices 9A 
and 9B, of the NOPD TSD provide details on the spreadsheet model and 
all the inputs to the LCC and PBP analysis.

H. Shipments Analysis

    DOE projected equipment shipments to calculate the national effects 
of potential standards on energy use, NPV, and future manufacturer cash 
flows. DOE developed shipment projections based on an analysis of key 
market drivers for each considered HID lamp type. In DOE's shipments 
model, shipments of equipment are driven by new construction, stock 
replacements, and other types of purchases. The shipments model takes 
an accounting approach, tracking market shares of each equipment class 
and the vintage of units in the existing stock. Stock accounting uses 
equipment shipments as inputs to estimate the age distribution of in-
service equipment stocks for all years. The age distribution of in-
service equipment stocks is a key input to calculations of both the NES 
and the NPV, because operating costs for any year depend on the age 
distribution of the stock. Chapters 2 and 10 of the NOPD TSD provide a 
more detailed description of DOE's shipments analysis.

I. National Impact Analysis

    DOE's NIA assessed the cumulative NES and the cumulative national 
economic impacts of ELs (i.e., potential standards cases) considered 
for the equipment classes analyzed. The analysis measures economic 
impacts using the NPV metric, which presents total customer costs and 
savings expected to result from potential standards at specific ELs, 
discounted to their present value. For a given EL, DOE calculates the 
NPV, as well as the NES, as the difference between a baseline 
projection and the standards-case projections. Chapters 2 and 11, and 
appendices 11A and 11B, of the NOPD TSD provide details on the 
spreadsheet model and all the inputs to the NIA.

J. Manufacturer Impact Analysis

    DOE conducted an MIA for HID lamps to estimate the financial impact 
of potential energy conservation standards on manufacturers. The MIA 
has both quantitative and qualitative aspects. The quantitative part of 
the MIA relies on the Government Regulatory Impact Model (GRIM), an 
industry cash-flow model customized for HID lamps covered in this NOPD. 
The key GRIM inputs are industry cost structure data, shipment data, 
equipment costs, and assumptions about markups and conversion costs. 
The key MIA output is INPV. DOE used the GRIM to calculate cash flows 
using standard accounting principles and to compare changes in INPV 
between a base case and various ELs at each equipment class (the 
standards case). The difference in INPV between the base and standards 
cases represents the financial impact of potential energy conservation 
standards on HID lamp manufacturers. Different sets of assumptions 
(scenarios) produce different INPV results. The qualitative part of the 
MIA addresses how potential standards could impact manufacturing 
capacity and industry competition, as well as any differential impact 
the potential standard could have on any particular subgroup of 
manufacturers. See chapter 12 of this NOPD TSD for additional details 
on DOE's MIA.

V. Analytical Results

A. Economic Impacts on Individual Customers

    To evaluate the net economic impact of standards on customers, DOE 
conducted an LCC and PBP analysis for each EL. In general, a higher 
efficacy product would affect customers in two ways: (1) Annual 
operating expenses would decrease; and (2) purchase prices would 
increase. Section IV.G of this notice discusses the inputs DOE used for 
calculating the LCC and PBP.
    The key outputs of the LCC analysis are mean LCC savings relative 
to the baseline case, as well as a probability distribution or 
likelihood of LCC reduction or increase, for each efficacy level and 
equipment class.\10\ In its LCC analysis, DOE traditionally assumes 
that the customer purchases a covered design upon the effective date of 
potential standards (in this case, 2017). The resulting values then 
necessarily reflect the projected market for HID equipment in 2017, and 
are reported by equipment class in Table V.1, Table V.2, and Table V.3. 
The LCC analysis also estimates the fraction of customers for which the 
LCC will decrease (net benefit), remain unchanged (no impact), or 
increase (net cost) relative to the baseline case. The last column in 
each table contains the median PBPs for the customers purchasing a 
design compliant with the efficacy level.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \10\ Customers, in the base-case scenario, who buy the equipment 
at or above the EL under consideration, would be unaffected (no 
impact) if the potential standard were to be set at that EL.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In evaluating these results relative to cumulative NPV, it is 
important to note that the LCC and PBP analysis does not reflect the 
long-term dynamics of the declining market for HID equipment, which are 
captured in the NIA shipments period (2017-2046). As a result, the 
average LCC savings--based on the projected 2017 market--may be 
positive in some cases (e.g., EL2 and EL3 for the >2800 K and <=4500 K 
and >=50 W to <=400 W equipment class), whereas the cumulative NPV 
results for these ELs are negative (see Table V.16). DOE explored the 
effects of the declining HID market on average LCC savings by 
conducting a sensitivity analysis based on the projected market in 
2022, with results reported by equipment class in Table V.4, Table V.5, 
and Table V.6. These results show a general erosion of average LCC 
savings, and demonstrate increasing consistency with the cumulative NPV 
results. For the >2800 K and <=4500 K and >=50 W to <=400 W equipment 
class, average LCC savings for EL2 become negative, with a majority of 
affected customers remaining negatively impacted. Average LCC savings 
for EL3 in this equipment class--while still positive--are 
significantly diminished, with a majority of affected customers 
experiencing a net cost. Following this trend, DOE would expect LCC 
savings for EL3 to become increasingly negative for an increasing 
proportion of affected customers over the NIA analysis period.
    Based on this sensitivity analysis, DOE believes its main LCC and 
PBP analysis results (including some cases of positive average LCC 
savings) are consistent with negative cumulative NPV results in the 
NIA, given the declining market for HID equipment. Chapter 9 of the 
NOPD TSD examines the relationship of the LCC and PBP analysis and 
projected HID market in further detail.

[[Page 62920]]



                             Table V.1--HID Lamps >2800 K and <=4500 K and =50 W to <=400 W--LCC and PBP Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          Life-cycle cost 2012$                        Life-cycle cost savings
                                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------    Median
                                                                                                           Percentage of customers that        payback
                 Efficacy level                    Installed    Discounted                 Average                 experience *                 period
                                                      cost      operating       LCC        savings   ---------------------------------------    years
                                                                   cost                     2012$       Net cost    No impact   Net benefit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline........................................       309.16      1671.22      1980.38  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........
1...............................................       316.37      1667.70      1984.07        -3.69            2           98            0          100
2...............................................       368.59      1602.68      1971.27         9.11           53           35           12          100
3...............................................       520.38      1374.17      1894.55        85.83           35           23           42         11.3
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Any minor incongruities among various reported metrics are the result of rounding.


                             Table V.2--HID Lamps >2800 K and <=4500 K and 400 and <=1000 W--LCC and PBP Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          Life-cycle cost 2012$                        Life-cycle cost savings
                                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------    Median
                                                                                                           Percentage of customers that        payback
                 Efficacy level                    Installed    Discounted                 Average                 experience *                 period
                                                      cost      operating       LCC        savings   ---------------------------------------    years
                                                                   cost                     2012$       Net cost    No impact   Net benefit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline........................................       444.54      5755.21      6199.75  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........
1...............................................       445.65      5754.56      6200.22        -0.47            0          100            0          100
2...............................................       486.34      5792.61      6278.94       -79.19           91            7            1          100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Any minor incongruities among various reported metrics are the result of rounding, including cases where the percentage of customers experiencing a
  net cost or net benefit are greater than zero, but round to zero.


                            Table V.3--HID Lamps >2800 K and <=4500 K and 1000 W to <=2000 W--LCC and PBP Results
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          Life-cycle cost 2012$                        Life-cycle cost savings
                                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------    Median
                                                                                                           Percentage of customers that        payback
                 Efficacy level                    Installed    Discounted                 Average                 experience *                 period
                                                      cost      operating       LCC        savings   ---------------------------------------    years
                                                                   cost                     2012$       Net cost    No impact   Net benefit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline........................................       534.23       596.88      1131.11  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........
1...............................................       592.96       554.33      1147.29       -16.18            6           91            2         39.1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Any minor incongruities among various reported metrics are the result of rounding.


                             Table V.4--HID Lamps >2800 K and <=4500 K and =50 W to <=400 W--LCC and PBP Results
                                                              [2022 Projected market basis]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          Life-cycle cost 2012$                        Life-cycle cost savings
                                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------    Median
                                                                                                           Percentage of customers that        payback
                 Efficacy level                    Installed    Discounted                 Average                 experience *                 period
                                                      cost      operating       LCC        savings   ---------------------------------------    years
                                                                   cost                     2012$       Net cost    No impact   Net benefit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline........................................       303.01      1626.38      1929.39  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........
1...............................................       303.41      1626.17      1929.58        -0.19            0          100            0          100
2...............................................       508.38      1479.10      1987.48       -58.09           52           37           11         41.3
3...............................................       569.12      1337.34      1906.45        22.94           42           23           35         16.1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Any minor incongruities among various reported metrics are the result of rounding, including cases where the percentage of customers experiencing a
  net cost or net benefit are greater than zero, but round to zero.


                             Table V.5--HID Lamps >2800 K and <=4500 K and 400 and <=1000 W--LCC and PBP Results
                                                              [2022 Projected market basis]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          Life-cycle cost 2012$                        Life-cycle cost savings
                                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------    Median
                                                                                                           Percentage of customers that        payback
                 Efficacy level                    Installed    Discounted                 Average                 experience *                 period
                                                      cost      operating       LCC        savings   ---------------------------------------    years
                                                                   cost                     2012$       Net cost    No impact   Net benefit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline........................................       442.66      5772.61      6215.27  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........
1...............................................       442.66      5772.61      6215.27         0.00            0          100            0        N/A**
2...............................................       695.12      5718.91      6414.03      -198.76           91            8            0          100
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Any minor incongruities among various reported metrics are the result of rounding.
** Zero impacted customers (median PBP calculated for affected customers only).


[[Page 62921]]


                            Table V.6--HID Lamps >2800 K and <=4500 K and 1000 W to <=2000 W--LCC and PBP Results
                                                              [2022 Projected market basis]
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                          Life-cycle cost 2012$                        Life-cycle cost savings
                                                 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------    Median
                                                                                                           Percentage of customers that        payback
                 Efficacy level                    Installed    Discounted                 Average                 experience *                 period
                                                      cost      operating       LCC        savings   ---------------------------------------    years
                                                                   cost                     2012$       Net cost    No impact   Net benefit
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Baseline........................................       581.65       611.01      1192.67  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........  ...........
1...............................................       649.70       562.86      1212.57       -19.90            9           88            3         30.6
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Any minor incongruities among various reported metrics are the result of rounding.

B. Economic Impacts on Manufacturers

    DOE performed the MIA to estimate the impact of potential energy 
conservation standards on manufacturers of HID lamps. The section below 
describes the expected impacts on HID lamp manufacturers at each EL for 
each equipment class. Chapter 12 of the NOPD TSD explains the MIA in 
further detail.
1. Industry Cash-Flow Analysis Results
    The tables in the following sections depict the financial impacts 
(represented by changes in INPV) of potential energy conservation 
standards on HID lamp manufacturers as well as the conversion costs 
that DOE estimates HID lamp manufacturers would incur at each EL for 
each equipment class. To evaluate the range of cash-flow impacts on the 
HID lamp industry, DOE modeled two markup scenarios that correspond to 
the range of anticipated market responses to potential standards. Each 
scenario results in a unique set of cash flows and corresponding 
industry values at each EL for each equipment class. In the following 
discussion, the INPV results refer to the difference in industry value 
between the base case and the standards case that result from the sum 
of discounted cash flows from the base year (2014) through the end of 
the analysis period.
    To assess the upper (less severe) end of the range of potential 
impacts on HID lamp manufacturers, DOE modeled a flat, or preservation 
of gross margin, markup scenario. This scenario assumes that in the 
standards case, manufacturers would be able to pass along all the 
higher production costs required for more efficacious equipment to 
their customers. To assess the lower (more severe) end of the range of 
potential impacts, DOE modeled a preservation of operating profit 
markup scenario. The preservation of operating profit markup scenario 
assumes that in the standards case, manufacturers would be able to earn 
the same operating margin in absolute dollars as they would in the base 
case. This represents the lower bound of industry profitability in the 
standards case.
    Table V.7 and Table V.8 present the projected results of the 50 W-
400 W equipment class under the flat and preservation of operating 
profit markup scenarios.

        Table V.7--Manufacturer Impact Analysis for the 50 W-400 W Equipment Class--Flat Markup Scenario
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                        EL
                                      Units          Base Case   -----------------------------------------------
                                                                         1               2               3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INPV..........................  (2012$ millions)           351.0           346.6           327.8           335.9
Change in INPV................  (2012$ millions)  ..............           (4.5)          (23.3)          (15.2)
                                (%).............  ..............           -1.3%           -6.6%           -4.3%
Product Conversion Costs......  (2012$ millions)  ..............             7.4            31.4            55.0
Capital Conversion Costs......  (2012$ millions)  ..............             0.0             6.0            54.5
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total Conversion Costs....  (2012$ millions)  ..............             7.4            37.4           109.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


  Table V.8--Manufacturer Impact Analysis for the 50 W-400 W Equipment Class--Preservation of Operating Profit
                                                 Markup Scenario
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                        EL
                                      Units          Base Case   -----------------------------------------------
                                                                         1               2               3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INPV..........................  (2012$ millions)           351.0           345.9           300.2           268.9
Change in INPV................  (2012$ millions)  ..............           (5.1)          (50.9)          (82.1)
                                (%).............  ..............           -1.5%          -14.5%          -23.4%
Product Conversion Costs......  (2012$ millions)  ..............             7.4            31.4            55.0
Capital Conversion Costs......  (2012$ millions)  ..............             0.0             6.0            54.5
                               ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Total Conversion Costs....  (2012$ millions)  ..............             7.4            37.4           109.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Table V.9 and Table V.10 present the projected results of the 401 
W-1000 W equipment class under the flat and preservation of operating 
profit markup scenarios.

[[Page 62922]]



       Table V.9--Manufacturer Impact Analysis for the 401 W-1000 W Equipment Class--Flat Markup Scenario
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                EL
                                                  Units              Base case   -------------------------------
                                                                                         1               2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INPV..................................  (2012$ millions)........            55.3            55.0            56.1
Change in INPV........................  (2012$ millions)........  ..............           (0.3)             0.8
                                        (%).....................  ..............           -0.6%            1.4%
Product Conversion Costs..............  (2012$ millions)........  ..............             0.5             4.9
Capital Conversion Costs..............  (2012$ millions)........  ..............             0.0             0.8
Total Conversion Costs................  (2012$ millions)........  ..............             0.5             5.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


 Table V.10--Manufacturer Impact Analysis for the 401 W-1000 W Equipment Class--Preservation of Operating Profit
                                                 Markup Scenario
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                EL
                                                  Units              Base case   -------------------------------
                                                                                         1               2
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INPV..................................  (2012$ millions)........            55.3            55.0            51.5
Change in INPV........................  (2012$ millions)........  ..............           (0.3)           (3.9)
                                        (%).....................  ..............           -0.6%           -7.0%
Product Conversion Costs..............  (2012$ millions)........  ..............             0.5             4.9
Capital Conversion Costs..............  (2012$ millions)........  ..............             0.0             0.8
Total Conversion Costs................  (2012$ millions)........  ..............             0.5             5.7
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Table V.11 and Table V.12 present the projected results of the 1001 
W-2000 W equipment class under the flat and preservation of operating 
profit markup scenarios.

      Table V.11--Manufacturer Impact Analysis for the 1001 W-2000 W Equipment Class--Flat Markup Scenario
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                        EL
                                                              Units                  Base case   ---------------
                                                                                                         1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INPV..........................................  (2012$ millions)................             4.7             4.0
Change in INPV................................  (2012$ millions)................  ..............           (0.8)
                                                (%).............................  ..............          -15.9%
Product Conversion Costs......................  (2012$ millions)................  ..............             0.6
Capital Conversion Costs......................  (2012$ millions)................  ..............             0.4
Total Conversion Costs........................  (2012$ millions)................  ..............             0.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


Table V.12--Manufacturer Impact Analysis for the 1001 W-2000 W Equipment Class--Preservation of Operating Profit
                                                 Markup Scenario
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                        EL
                                                              Units                  Base case   ---------------
                                                                                                         1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
INPV..........................................  (2012$ millions)................             4.7             4.0
Change in INPV................................  (2012$ millions)................  ..............           (0.7)
                                                (%).............................  ..............          -15.4%
Product Conversion Costs......................  (2012$ millions)................  ..............             0.6
Capital Conversion Costs......................  (2012$ millions)................  ..............             0.4
Total Conversion Costs........................  (2012$ millions)................  ..............             0.9
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Impacts on Employment
    DOE quantitatively assessed the impacts of potential energy 
conservation standards on direct employment. DOE used the GRIM to 
estimate the domestic labor expenditures and number of domestic 
production workers in the base case and at each EL for the 50 W-400 W 
equipment class, since the 50 W-400 W equipment class represents over 
90 percent of all covered HID lamp shipments in 2017. Furthermore, 
manufacturers stated that most domestic employment decisions would be 
based on the standards set for the 50 W-400 W equipment class.
    The employment impacts shown in Table V.13 represent the potential 
production employment that could result following potential energy 
conservation standards. The upper bound of the results estimates the 
maximum change in the number of production workers that could occur 
after compliance with any potential energy conservation standards 
assuming that manufacturers continue to produce the same scope of 
covered equipment in the same domestic production facilities. It also 
assumes that domestic

[[Page 62923]]

production does not shift to lower labor-cost countries. Because there 
is a real risk of manufacturers evaluating sourcing decisions in 
response to potential energy conservation standards, the lower bound of 
the employment results includes the estimated total number of U.S. 
production workers in the industry who could lose their jobs if some or 
all existing production were moved outside of the United States.
    DOE estimates that approximately one third of the HID lamps sold in 
the United States are manufactured domestically. With this assumption, 
DOE estimates that in the absence of potential energy conservation 
standards, there would be approximately 292 domestic production workers 
involved in manufacturing HID lamps in 2017. The table below shows the 
range of the impacts of potential standards on U.S. production workers 
in the HID lamp industry.

 Table V.13--Potential Changes in the Total Number of Domestic High-Intensity Discharge Lamp Production Workers
                                                     in 2017
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                           50 W-400 W Equipment class EL
                                                     Base case   -----------------------------------------------
                                                                         1               2               3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Total Number of Domestic Production Workers in               292             294             317             388
 2017 (without changes in production locations).
Potential Changes in Domestic Production Workers  ..............             2-0        25-(146)        96-(292)
 in 2017 *......................................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* DOE presents a range of potential employment impacts. Numbers in parentheses indicate negative numbers.

3. Impacts on Manufacturing Capacity
    HID lamp manufacturers stated that they did not anticipate any 
significant capacity constraints unless all lamps in the 50 W-400 W 
equipment class had to be converted to CMH technology. Most 
manufacturers stated that they do not have the equipment to produce the 
volume of CMH lamps that would be necessary to satisfy demand. 
Manufacturers would have to expend significant capital resources to 
obtain additional equipment that is specific to CMH lamp production. 
Manufacturers also pointed out that thousands of man-hours would be 
necessary to redesign specific lamps and lamp production lines at ELs 
requiring CMH. The combination of obtaining new equipment and the 
engineering effort that manufacturers would have to undergo could cause 
significant downtime for manufacturers. Most manufacturers agreed that 
there would not be any significant capacity constraints at any ELs that 
did not require CMH technology.
4. Impacts on Subgroups of Manufacturers
    Using average cost assumptions to develop an industry cash-flow 
estimate may not be adequate for assessing differential impacts among 
manufacturer subgroups. Small manufacturers, niche equipment 
manufacturers, and manufacturers exhibiting cost structures 
substantially different from the industry average could be affected 
disproportionately. DOE did not identify any adversely impacted 
subgroups for HID lamps for this NOPD based on the results of the 
industry characterization. DOE analyzed the impacts on small 
manufacturers as required by the Regulatory Flexibility Act, 5 U.S.C. 
601, et. seq.
5. Cumulative Regulatory Burden
    While any one regulation may not impose a significant burden on 
manufacturers, the combined effects of recent or impending regulations 
may have serious consequences for some manufacturers, groups of 
manufacturers, or an entire industry. Assessing the impact of a single 
regulation may overlook this cumulative regulatory burden. In addition 
to energy conservation standards, other regulations can significantly 
affect manufacturers' financial operations. Multiple regulations 
affecting the same manufacturer can strain profits and lead companies 
to abandon product lines or markets with lower expected future returns 
than competing equipment. For these reasons, DOE conducts a cumulative 
regulatory burden analysis as part of its rulemakings pertaining to 
lighting efficacy to make sure that this proposed standard does not 
create a cumulative regulatory burden that is unacceptable to the 
overall lighting industry.

C. National Impact Analysis

1. Significance of Energy Savings
    For each efficacy level, DOE projected energy savings for HID lamps 
purchased in the 30-year period that begins in the year 2017, ending in 
the year 2046. The savings are measured over the entire lifetime of 
equipment purchased in the 30-year period. DOE quantified the energy 
savings attributable to each efficacy level as the difference in energy 
consumption between each standards case and the base case. Table V.14 
presents the estimated primary energy savings for each efficacy level 
analyzed. Table V.15 presents the estimated FFC energy savings for each 
efficacy level. Chapter 11 of the NOPD TSD describes these estimates in 
more detail.

   Table V.14--Cumulative National Primary Energy Savings for HID Lamp
               Efficacy Levels for Units Sold in 2017-2046
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                             National
                                                              primary
             Equipment class              Efficacy level      energy
                                                          savings  quads
------------------------------------------------------------------------
>2800 K and <=4500 K and >=50 W to <=400               1            0.01
 W......................................               2             0.1
                                                       3            1.55
>2800 K and <=4500 K and >400 and <=1000               1          0.0001
 W......................................               2           0.003
>2800 K and <=4500 K and >1000 W to                    1           0.001
 <=2000 W...............................
------------------------------------------------------------------------


[[Page 62924]]


 Table V.15--Cumulative National Full-Fuel-Cycle Energy Savings for HID
            Lamp Efficacy Levels for Units Sold in 2017-2046
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                             National
                                                              primary
             Equipment class              Efficacy level      energy
                                                          savings  quads
------------------------------------------------------------------------
>2800 K and <=4500 K and >=50 W to <=400               1            0.01
 W......................................               2            0.17
                                                       3            1.57
>2800 K and <=4500 K and >400 and <=1000               1          0.0001
 W......................................               2           0.003
>2800 K and <=4500 K and >1000 W to                    1           0.001
 <=2000 W...............................
------------------------------------------------------------------------

2. Net Present Value of Customer Costs and Benefits
    DOE estimated the cumulative NPV of the total costs and savings for 
customers that would result from the efficacy levels considered for HID 
lamps. In accordance with the Office of Management and Budget's (OMB's) 
guidelines on regulatory analysis,\11\ DOE calculated the NPV using 
both a 7-percent and a 3-percent real discount rate. The 7-percent rate 
is an estimate of the average before-tax rate of return on private 
capital in the U.S. economy, and reflects the returns on real estate 
and small business capital as well as corporate capital. This discount 
rate approximates the opportunity cost of capital in the private sector 
(OMB analysis has found the average rate of return on capital to be 
near this rate). The 3-percent rate reflects the potential effects of 
standards on private consumption (e.g., through higher prices for 
products and reduced purchases of energy). This rate represents the 
rate at which society discounts future consumption flows to their 
present value. It can be approximated by the real rate of return on 
long-term government debt (i.e., yield on U.S. Treasury notes), which 
has averaged about 3 percent for the past 30 years.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \11\ OMB Circular A-4, section E (Sept. 17, 2003). Available at: 
www.whitehouse.gov/omb/circulars_a004_a-4.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Table V.16 shows the customer NPV results for each efficacy level 
DOE considered for HID lamps, using both 7-percent and 3-percent 
discount rates. In each case, the impacts cover the lifetime of 
equipment purchased in 2017 through 2046. See chapter 11 of the NOPD 
TSD for more detailed NPV results.

Table V.16--Net Present Value of Customer Benefits for HID Lamp Efficacy
                   Levels for Units Sold in 2017-2046
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                    Net present value
                                                      billion 2012$
                                     Efficacy  -------------------------
         Equipment class              level      7-Percent    3-Percent
                                                  discount     discount
                                                    rate         rate
------------------------------------------------------------------------
>2800 K and <=4500 K and >=50 W              1        -0.06        -0.03
 to <=400 W......................            2        -2.00        -3.42
                                             3        -4.98        -6.37
>2800 K and <=4500 K and >400 and            1      -0.0001       0.0002
 <=1000 W........................            2        -0.49        -0.90
>2800 K and <=4500 K and >1000 W             1        -0.02        -0.03
 to <=2000 W.....................
------------------------------------------------------------------------

D. Proposed Determination

    As required by EPCA, this NOPD analyzes whether standards for HID 
lamps would be technological feasible, economically justified, and 
would result in significant energy savings. (42 U.S.C. 6317(b)(1)) Each 
of these criteria is discussed below.
1. Technological Feasibility
    EPCA mandates that DOE determine whether energy conservation 
standards for HID lamps would be ``technologically feasible.'' (42 
U.S.C. 6317(a)(1)) DOE proposes to determine that standards for HPS 
lamps would not be technologically feasible due to the lack of 
technology options discussed in section IV.A.3. DOE proposes to 
determine that energy conservation standards for other HID lamps (MV 
and MH lamps) would be technologically feasible because they can be 
satisfied with HID lighting systems currently available on the market.
2. Significance of Energy Savings
    EPCA also mandates that DOE determine whether energy conservation 
standards for HID lamps would result in ``significant energy savings.'' 
(42 U.S.C. 6317(a)(1)) The proposed determination estimates that a 
standard for HID lamps would result in energy savings of up to 1.6 
quads over a 30-year analysis period (2017-2046). Therefore, DOE 
proposes to determine that potential energy conservation standards for 
HID lamps would result in significant energy savings.
3. Economic Justification
    EPCA requires DOE to determine whether energy conservation 
standards for HID lamps would be economically justified. (42 U.S.C. 
6317(b)(1)) Using the methods and data described in section IV.G, DOE 
conducted an LCC analysis to estimate the net costs/benefits to users 
from increased efficacy in the considered HID lamps. DOE then

[[Page 62925]]

aggregated the results from the LCC analysis to estimate national 
energy savings and national economic impacts in section V.A. DOE also 
conducted an MIA to estimate the financial impact of potential energy 
conservation standards on manufacturers.
    DOE first considered the most efficacious level, EL 3, which is 
applicable only to the 50 W-400 W equipment class. As listed in Table 
V.16, EL3 would have a negative NPV at both a 7-percent and 3-percent 
discount rate. EL3 could result in HID lamp manufacturers experiencing 
a loss in INPV. On the basis of the negative NPV and decrease in 
industry value for HID lamp manufacturers, DOE determined that the EL3 
standard was not economically justified.
    DOE then considered the next most efficacious level, EL2, which 
applies to the 50 W-400 W and 401 W-1000 W equipment classes. As listed 
in Table V.16, EL2 results in a negative NPV for all applicable 
equipment classes at both a 7-percent and 3-percent discount rate. As 
listed in section V.A, available designs result in positive mean LCC 
savings for the 50 W-400 W equipment class and negative mean LCC 
savings for the 401 W-1000 W equipment class. However, a majority of 
customers affected by the standard experience a net cost at EL2 in all 
applicable equipment classes. EL2 could result in HID lamp 
manufacturers experiencing a loss in INPV for the applicable equipment 
classes. On the basis of the negative NPV, majority of customers 
affected by the standard experiencing a net cost, and potential 
decrease in industry value for HID lamp manufacturers, DOE determined 
that an EL2 standard was not economically justified.
    DOE finally considered EL1, which would apply to all equipment 
classes. DOE's NPV analysis (results listed in Table V.16) indicates 
that all equipment classes have a negative or negligible NPV at a 7-
percent and 3-percent discount rate for EL1. As listed in section V.A, 
available designs result in negative mean LCC savings for all three of 
the representative equipment classes at EL 1, with a majority of 
customers affected by the standard experiencing a net cost. EL1 could 
result in HID lamp manufacturers experiencing a loss in INPV for all 
equipment classes. On the basis of the negative NPV, negative mean LCC 
savings, majority of customers affected by the standard experiencing a 
net cost, and decrease in industry value for HID lamp manufacturers, 
DOE determined that an EL1 standard was not economically justified.
4. Conclusions
    DOE tentatively determines that potential standards for HID lamps 
are either not technologically feasible or not economically justified. 
DOE will consider all comments received on this proposed determination 
in issuing any final determination of whether standards for HID lamps 
would be technologically feasible and economically justified, and would 
result in significant energy savings. If DOE determines that all of 
these criteria are met, DOE must prescribe test procedures and energy 
conservation standards for HID lamps. If DOE determines that one or 
more of the criteria are not met, DOE will not consider establishing 
test procedures and standards for these lamps.

VI. Procedural Issues and Regulatory Review

A. Review Under Executive Orders 12866 and 13563

    This proposed determination is not subject to review under 
Executive Order (E.O.) 12866, ``Regulatory Planning and Review.'' 58 FR 
51735 (October 4, 1993).

B. Review Under the Regulatory Flexibility Act

    The Regulatory Flexibility Act (5 U.S.C. 601 et seq.) requires 
preparation of an initial regulatory flexibility analysis (IRFA) for 
any rule that by law must be proposed for public comment, unless the 
agency certifies that the rule, if promulgated, will not have a 
significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities. 
As required by Executive Order 13272, ``Proper Consideration of Small 
Entities in Agency Rulemaking,'' 67 FR 53461 (August 16, 2002), DOE 
published procedures and policies on February 19, 2003, to ensure that 
the potential impacts of its rules on small entities are properly 
considered during the rulemaking process. 68 FR 7990 DOE has made its 
procedures and policies available on the Office of the General 
Counsel's Web site (http://energy.gov/gc/office-general-counsel).
    DOE reviewed this proposed determination under the provisions of 
the Regulatory Flexibility Act and the policies and procedures 
published on February 19, 2003. In the proposed determination, DOE 
finds that standards for HID lamps would not meet all of the required 
criteria of technologically feasibility, economic justification, and 
significant energy savings. If adopted, the determination would not 
establish any energy conservation standards for HID lamps, and DOE 
would not consider prescribing test procedures and standards for HID 
lamps. On the basis of the foregoing, DOE certifies that the proposed 
determination, if adopted, would have no significant economic impact on 
a substantial number of small entities. Accordingly, DOE has not 
prepared an IRFA for this proposed determination. DOE will transmit 
this certification and supporting statement of factual basis to the 
Chief Counsel for Advocacy of the Small Business Administration for 
review under 5 U.S.C. 605(b).

C. Review Under the Paperwork Reduction Act

    This proposed determination, which proposes to determine that 
energy conservation standards for HID lamps would not meet all of the 
required criteria of technologically feasibility, economic 
justification, and significant energy savings, would impose no new 
information or record keeping requirements. Accordingly, the Office of 
Management and Budget (OMB) clearance is not required under the 
Paperwork Reduction Act. (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.)

D. Review Under the National Environmental Policy Act of 1969

    In this NOPD, DOE tentatively determines that energy conservation 
standards for HID lamps would not meet all of the required criteria of 
technologically feasibility, economic justification, and significant 
energy savings. DOE has determined that review under the National 
Environmental Policy Act of 1969 (NEPA), Pub. L. 91-190, codified at 42 
U.S.C. 4321 et seq. is not required at this time because standards are 
not being proposed. NEPA review can only be initiated ``as soon as 
environmental impacts can be meaningfully evaluated.'' Because this 
final determination concludes only that future standards are unlikely 
to be warranted, and does not propose or set any standard, DOE has 
determined that there are no environmental impacts to be evaluated at 
this time. Accordingly, neither an environmental assessment nor an 
environmental impact statement is required.

E. Review Under Executive Order 13132

    Executive Order 13132, ``Federalism.'' 64 FR 43255 (Aug. 10, 1999) 
imposes certain requirements on Federal agencies formulating and 
implementing policies or regulations that preempt State law or that 
have Federalism implications. The Executive Order requires agencies to 
examine the constitutional and statutory authority supporting any 
action that would limit

[[Page 62926]]

the policymaking discretion of states and to carefully assess the 
necessity for such actions. The Executive Order also requires agencies 
to have an accountable process to ensure meaningful and timely input by 
State and local officials in the development of regulatory policies 
that have Federalism implications. On March 14, 2000, DOE published a 
statement of policy describing the intergovernmental consultation 
process it will follow in the development of such regulations. 65 FR 
13735. As this NOPD determines that standards are not likely to be 
warranted for HID lamps, there is no impact on the policymaking 
discretion of the states. Therefore, no action is required by Executive 
Order 13132.

F. Review Under Executive Order 12988

    With respect to the review of existing regulations and the 
promulgation of new regulations, section 3(a) of Executive Order 12988, 
``Civil Justice Reform,'' imposes on Federal agencies the general duty 
to adhere to the following requirements: (1) Eliminate drafting errors 
and ambiguity; (2) write regulations to minimize litigation; and (3) 
provide a clear legal standard for affected conduct rather than a 
general standard and promote simplification and burden reduction. 61 FR 
4729 (Feb. 7, 1996). Section 3(b) of Executive Order 12988 specifically 
requires that Executive agencies make every reasonable effort to ensure 
that the regulation: (1) Clearly specifies the preemptive effect, if 
any; (2) clearly specifies any effect on existing Federal law or 
regulation; (3) provides a clear legal standard for affected conduct 
while promoting simplification and burden reduction; (4) specifies the 
retroactive effect, if any; (5) adequately defines key terms; and (6) 
addresses other important issues affecting clarity and general 
draftsmanship under any guidelines issued by the Attorney General. 
Section 3(c) of Executive Order 12988 requires Executive agencies to 
review regulations in light of applicable standards in section 3(a) and 
section 3(b) to determine whether they are met or it is unreasonable to 
meet one or more of them. DOE has completed the required review and 
determined that, to the extent permitted by law, this proposed 
determination meets the relevant standards of Executive Order 12988.

G. Review Under the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995

    Title II of the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (UMRA) 
requires each Federal agency to assess the effects of Federal 
regulatory actions on State, local, and Tribal governments and the 
private sector. Pub. L. 104-4, sec. 201 (codified at 2 U.S.C. 1531). 
For a proposed regulatory action likely to result in a rule that may 
cause the expenditure by State, local, and Tribal governments, in the 
aggregate, or by the private sector of $100 million or more in any one 
year (adjusted annually for inflation), section 202 of UMRA requires a 
Federal agency to publish a written statement that estimates the 
resulting costs, benefits, and other effects on the national economy. 
(2 U.S.C. 1532(a), (b)) The UMRA also requires a Federal agency to 
develop an effective process to permit timely input by elected officers 
of State, local, and Tribal governments on a proposed ``significant 
intergovernmental mandate,'' and requires an agency plan for giving 
notice and opportunity for timely input to potentially affected small 
governments before establishing any requirements that might 
significantly or uniquely affect small governments. On March 18, 1997, 
DOE published a statement of policy on its process for 
intergovernmental consultation under UMRA. 62 FR 12820. DOE's policy 
statement is also available at http://energy.gov/gc/office-general-counsel. This proposed determination contains neither an 
intergovernmental mandate nor a mandate that may result in the 
expenditure of $100 million or more in any year, so these UMRA 
requirements do not apply.

H. Review Under the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act, 
1999

    Section 654 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations 
Act, 1999 (Pub. L. 105-277) requires Federal agencies to issue a Family 
Policymaking Assessment for any rule that may affect family well-being. 
This proposed determination would not have any impact on the autonomy 
or integrity of the family as an institution. Accordingly, DOE has 
concluded that it is not necessary to prepare a Family Policymaking 
Assessment.

I. Review Under Executive Order 12630

    DOE has determined, under Executive Order 12630, ``Governmental 
Actions and Interference with Constitutionally Protected Property 
Rights'' 53 FR 8859 (Mar. 18, 1988), that this proposed determination 
would not result in any takings that might require compensation under 
the Fifth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution.

J. Review Under the Treasury and General Government Appropriations Act, 
2001

    Section 515 of the Treasury and General Government Appropriations 
Act, 2001 (44 U.S.C. 3516, note) provides for Federal agencies to 
review most disseminations of information to the public under 
guidelines established by each agency pursuant to general guidelines 
issued by OMB. OMB's guidelines were published at 67 FR 8452 (Feb. 22, 
2002), and DOE's guidelines were published at 67 FR 62446 (Oct. 7, 
2002). DOE has reviewed this proposed determination under the OMB and 
DOE guidelines and has concluded that it is consistent with applicable 
policies in those guidelines.

K. Review Under Executive Order 13211

    Executive Order 13211, ``Actions Concerning Regulations That 
Significantly Affect Energy Supply, Distribution, or Use'' 66 FR 28355 
(May 22, 2001), requires Federal agencies to prepare and submit to OIRA 
at OMB, a Statement of Energy Effects for any proposed significant 
energy action. A ``significant energy action'' is defined as any action 
by an agency that promulgates or is expected to lead to promulgation of 
a final rule, and that: (1) Is a significant regulatory action under 
Executive Order 12866, or any successor order; and (2) is likely to 
have a significant adverse effect on the supply, distribution, or use 
of energy, or (3) is designated by the Administrator of OIRA as a 
significant energy action. For any proposed significant energy action, 
the agency must give a detailed statement of any adverse effects on 
energy supply, distribution, or use should the proposal be implemented, 
and of reasonable alternatives to the action and their expected 
benefits on energy supply, distribution, and use.
    Because the NOPD finds that standards for HID lamps are unlikely to 
be warranted, it is not a significant energy action, nor has it been 
designated as such by the Administrator at OIRA. Accordingly, DOE has 
not prepared a Statement of Energy Effects.

L. Review Under the Information Quality Bulletin for Peer Review

    On December 16, 2004, OMB, in consultation with the Office of 
Science and Technology Policy (OSTP), issued its Final Information 
Quality Bulletin for Peer Review (the Bulletin). 70 FR 2664 (Jan. 14, 
2005). The Bulletin establishes that certain scientific information 
shall be peer reviewed by qualified specialists before it is 
disseminated by the Federal

[[Page 62927]]

Government, including influential scientific information related to 
agency regulatory actions. The purpose of the Bulletin is to enhance 
the quality and credibility of the Government's scientific information. 
Under the Bulletin, the energy conservation standards rulemaking 
analyses are ``influential scientific information,'' which the Bulletin 
defines as scientific information the agency reasonably can determine 
will have, or does have, a clear and substantial impact on important 
public policies or private sector decisions. 70 FR 2667.
    In response to OMB's Bulletin, DOE conducted formal in-progress 
peer reviews of the energy conservation standards development process 
and analyses and has prepared a Peer Review Report pertaining to the 
energy conservation standards rulemaking analyses. Generation of this 
report involved a rigorous, formal, and documented evaluation using 
objective criteria and qualified and independent reviewers to make a 
judgment as to the technical/scientific/business merit, the actual or 
anticipated results, and the productivity and management effectiveness 
of programs and/or projects. The ``Energy Conservation Standards 
Rulemaking Peer Review Report'' dated February 2007 has been 
disseminated and is available at the following Web site: 
www1.eere.energy.gov/buildings/appliance_standards/peer_review.html.

VII. Public Participation

A. Public Meeting Requests

    Interested parties may submit comments requesting that a public 
meeting discussing this NOPD be held at DOE Headquarters. DOE will 
accept such requests no later than the date provided in the DATES 
section at the beginning of this notice. As with other comments 
regarding this determination, interested parties may submit requests 
using any of the methods described in the ADDRESSES section at the 
beginning of this notice.

B. Submission of Comments

    DOE will accept comments, data, and information regarding this NOPD 
no later than the date provided in the DATES section at the beginning 
of this determination. Interested parties may submit comments, data, 
and other information using any of the methods described in the 
ADDRESSES section at the beginning of this determination.
    Submitting comments via regulations.gov. The regulations.gov Web 
page will require you to provide your name and contact information. 
Your contact information will be viewable to DOE Building Technologies 
staff only. Your contact information will not be publicly viewable 
except for your first and last names, organization name (if any), and 
submitter representative name (if any). If your comment is not 
processed properly because of technical difficulties, DOE will use this 
information to contact you. If DOE cannot read your comment due to 
technical difficulties and cannot contact you for clarification, DOE 
may not be able to consider your comment.
    However, your contact information will be publicly viewable if you 
include it in the comment itself or in any documents attached to your 
comment. Any information that you do not want to be publicly viewable 
should not be included in your comment, nor in any document attached to 
your comment. Otherwise, persons viewing comments will see only first 
and last names, organization names, correspondence containing comments, 
and any documents submitted with the comments.
    Do not submit to regulations.gov information for which disclosure 
is restricted by statute, such as trade secrets and commercial or 
financial information (hereinafter referred to as Confidential Business 
Information [CBI]). Comments submitted through regulations.gov cannot 
be claimed as CBI. Comments received through the Web site will waive 
any CBI claims for the information submitted. For information on 
submitting CBI, see the Confidential Business Information section 
below.
    DOE processes submissions made through regulations.gov before 
posting. Normally, comments will be posted within a few days of being 
submitted. However, if large volumes of comments are being processed 
simultaneously, your comment may not be viewable for up to several 
weeks. Please keep the comment tracking number that regulations.gov 
provides after you have successfully uploaded your comment.
    Submitting comments via email, hand delivery/courier, or mail. 
Comments and documents submitted via email, hand delivery, or mail also 
will be posted to regulations.gov. If you do not want your personal 
contact information to be publicly viewable, do not include it in your 
comment or any accompanying documents. Instead, provide your contact 
information in a cover letter. Include your first and last names, email 
address, telephone number, and optional mailing address. The cover 
letter will not be publicly viewable as long as it does not include any 
comments.
    Include contact information each time you submit comments, data, 
documents, and other information to DOE. If you submit via mail or hand 
delivery/courier, please provide all items on a CD, if feasible. It is 
not necessary to submit printed copies. No facsimiles (faxes) will be 
accepted.
    Comments, data, and other information submitted to DOE 
electronically should be provided in PDF (preferred), Microsoft Word or 
Excel, WordPerfect, or text (ASCII) file format. Provide documents that 
are not secured, that are written in English, and that are free of any 
defects or viruses. Documents should not contain special characters or 
any form of encryption and, if possible, they should carry the 
electronic signature of the author.
    Campaign form letters. Please submit campaign form letters by the 
originating organization in batches of between 50 to 500 form letters 
per PDF or as one form letter with a list of supporters' names compiled 
into one or more PDFs. This reduces comment processing and posting 
time.
    Confidential Business Information. According to 10 CFR 1004.11, any 
person submitting information that he or she believes to be 
confidential and exempt by law from public disclosure should submit via 
email, postal mail, or hand delivery/courier two well-marked copies: 
One copy of the document marked confidential including all the 
information believed to be confidential, and one copy of the document 
marked non-confidential with the information believed to be 
confidential deleted. Submit these documents via email or on a CD, if 
feasible. DOE will make its own determination about the confidential 
status of the information and treat it according to its determination.
    Factors of interest to DOE when evaluating requests to treat 
submitted information as confidential include: (1) A description of the 
items; (2) whether and why such items are customarily treated as 
confidential within the industry; (3) whether the information is 
generally known by or available from other sources; (4) whether the 
information has previously been made available to others without 
obligation concerning its confidentiality; (5) an explanation of the 
competitive injury to the submitting person which would result from 
public disclosure; (6) when such information might lose its 
confidential character due to the passage of time; and (7) why 
disclosure of the information would be contrary to the public interest.
    It is DOE's policy that all comments may be included in the public 
docket, without change and as received,

[[Page 62928]]

including any personal information provided in the comments (except 
information deemed to be exempt from public disclosure).

C. Issues on Which DOE Seeks Comment

    Although DOE welcomes comments on any aspect of this proposed 
determination, DOE is particularly interested in receiving comments and 
views of interested parties concerning the following issues:
    1. The HID lamps selected for and excluded from analysis of 
economic justification for standards;
    2. The technology options analyzed and in particular the 
elimination of sapphire arc tubes and starting method as technology 
option(s);
    3. The equipment classes analyzed in this NOPD;
    4. The design options identified in the screening analysis;
    5. The representative equipment classes analyzed in this NOPD;
    6. The baseline lamps selected, including the inclusion of a 150 W 
MH lamp;
    7. The selection of more efficacious substitute lamps analyzed in 
this NOPD;
    8. The decision to analyze equal wattage replacement lamps, as well 
as the methodology used to select the equal wattage replacement lamps;
    9. The methodology used to determine ELs, as well as the resulting 
ELs analyzed in this NOPD;
    10. The factors used in this NOPD to scale to equipment classes not 
directly analyzed;
    11. The decision to include replacement pathways other than full 
fixture replacement in this NOPD;
    12. The results and methodology from the equipment price 
determination;
    13. Methods to improve DOE's energy use analysis, as well as any 
data supporting alternate operating hour estimates or assumptions 
regarding dimming of HID lamp-and-ballast systems;
    14. The assumptions and methodology for estimating annual operating 
hours, which were based on data from the 2010 U.S. Lighting Market 
Characterization;
    15. Methods to improve DOE's equipment price projections beyond the 
assumption of constant real prices, as well as any data supporting 
alternate methods;
    16. The reasonableness of assuming a zero percent rebound effect 
(the potential tendency for customers to increase HID lamp usage in 
response to more efficient lamp-and-ballast systems);
    17. Whether the shipment scenarios under various policy scenarios 
are reasonable and likely to occur;
    18. The impediments that prevent users of HID lamps from switching 
to LED lighting to garner further energy savings;
    19. The expected impact of potential standards on the rate at which 
HID lamp customers transition to non-HID technology;
    20. The methodology used in the MIA and the results of the MIA;
    21. The proposal of a negative determination stating that standards 
for HID lamps are not justified.

VIII. Approval of the Office of the Secretary

    The Secretary of Energy has approved publication of this NOPD.

List of Subjects in 10 CFR Part 431

    Administrative practice and procedure, Confidential business 
information, Energy conservation, and Reporting and recordkeeping 
requirements.

    Issued in Washington, DC, on October 10, 2014.
Kathleen B. Hogan,
Deputy Assistant Secretary for Energy Efficiency, Energy Efficiency and 
Renewable Energy.
[FR Doc. 2014-24971 Filed 10-20-14; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6450-01-P