[Federal Register Volume 79, Number 100 (Friday, May 23, 2014)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 29712-29726]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2014-11510]


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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

40 CFR Part 52

[EPA-R09-OAR-2014-0185; FRL-9911-03-Region 9]


Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; California; 
South Coast 1-Hour and 8-Hour Ozone

AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

ACTION: Proposed rule.

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SUMMARY: The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is proposing to 
approve the portions of a State implementation plan (SIP) revision 
submitted by the State of California on February 13, 2013 that relate 
to attainment of the 1-hour and 1997 8-hour ozone national ambient air 
quality standards in the Los Angeles-South Coast area. Specifically, 
the EPA is proposing to approve the portions of the South Coast Air 
Quality Management District's Final 2012 Air Quality Management Plan 
that update the approved control strategy for the 1997 8-hour ozone 
standard and that provide a demonstration of attainment of the 1-hour 
ozone standard by December 31, 2022. In proposing approval, EPA finds 
that an attainment date of December 31, 2022 is appropriate in light of 
the severity of the 1-hour ozone problem in the South Coast and, given 
the extent to which emissions sources in the South Coast have already 
been controlled, the limited emissions remaining that can be regulated. 
EPA is proposing as part of this action to approve new commitments 
adopted by the South Coast Air Quality Management District, updated new 
technology measures, and a new commitment by the California Air 
Resources Board to submit contingency measures in 2019 as necessary to 
meet the emissions reductions targets for 2022 from implementation of 
new technology measures.

DATES: Any comments must arrive by June 23, 2014.

ADDRESSES: Submit comments, identified by docket number EPA-R09-OAR-
2014-0185, by one of the following methods:
     Federal eRulemaking Portal: www.regulations.gov. Follow 
the on-line instructions.
     Email: [email protected].
     Mail or deliver: Wienke Tax, Office of Air Planning (AIR-
2), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region IX, 75 Hawthorne 
Street, San Francisco, CA 94105.
    Instructions: All comments will be included in the public docket 
without change and may be made available online at www.regulations.gov, 
including any personal information provided, unless the comment 
includes Confidential Business Information (CBI) or other information 
whose disclosure is restricted by statute. Information that you 
consider CBI or otherwise protected should be clearly identified as 
such and should not be submitted through www.regulations.gov or email. 
The www.regulations.gov Web site is an ``anonymous access'' system, and 
EPA will not know your identity or contact information unless you 
provide it in the body of your comment. If you send email directly to 
EPA, your email address will be automatically captured and included as 
part of the public comment. If EPA cannot read your comments due to 
technical difficulties and cannot contact you for clarification, EPA 
may not be able to consider your comment.
    Docket: The index to the docket for this action is available 
electronically on the www.regulations.gov Web site and in hard copy at 
EPA Region IX, 75 Hawthorne Street, San Francisco, California 94105. 
While all documents in the docket are listed in the index, some 
information may be publicly available only at the hard copy location 
(e.g., copyrighted material or large maps), and some may not be 
publicly available at either location (e.g., CBI). To inspect the hard 
copy materials, please schedule an appointment during normal business 
hours with the contact listed in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT 
section below.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Wienke Tax, Air Planning Office (AIR-
2), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region IX, (415) 947-4192, 
[email protected].

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Throughout this document, ``we,'' ``us'' and 
``our'' refer to the EPA.

Table of Contents

I. Background
II. EPA's Review of California's Submittal
    A. CAA Procedural and Administrative Requirements for SIP 
Submittals
    B. Attainment Demonstration Requirements
    1. Emissions Inventories
    a. Requirements for Emissions Inventories
    b. Base Year and Future Baseline Emissions Inventories in the 
2012 AQMP
    2. South Coast 1-Hour Ozone Plan Control Strategy
    a. Requirements for Control Strategies and RACM Demonstrations
    b. 2012 AQMP RACM Demonstration
    c. 2012 AQMP Aggregate Emissions Reductions Commitments
    d. CAA Section 182(e)(5) New or Improved Technology Measures
    3. Applicable Attainment Date
    4. Air Quality Modeling for the 2012 1-Hour Ozone Attainment 
Demonstration
    a. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for 1-Hour Ozone Air Quality 
Modeling and EPA Guidance
    b. 1-Hour Attainment Demonstration Modeling and Weight of 
Evidence
    i. Modeling Approaches for the SCAQMD Attainment Demonstration
    ii. Results of SCAQMD Modeling
    c. EPA's Evaluation of the Modeling Demonstration
III. Proposed Action and Request for Public Comment
IV. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

I. Background

    Ground-level ozone is an oxidant that is formed from photochemical 
reactions in the atmosphere between volatile organic compounds (VOC) 
and oxides of nitrogen (NOX) in the presence of sunlight. 
These two pollutants, referred to as ozone precursors, are emitted by 
many types of pollution sources including on-road motor vehicles (cars, 
trucks, and buses), nonroad vehicles and engines, power plants and 
industrial facilities, and smaller area sources such as lawn and garden 
equipment and paints.

[[Page 29713]]

    Under section 109 of the Clean Air Act (CAA or Act), EPA 
promulgates national ambient air quality standards (NAAQS or standards) 
for pervasive air pollutants, such as ozone. The NAAQS are 
concentration levels that, the attainment and maintenance of which, EPA 
has determined to be requisite to protect public health and welfare. In 
1979, EPA established the 1-hour ozone NAAQS of 0.12 parts per million 
(ppm).\1\ Section 110 of the CAA requires States to develop and submit 
state implementation plans (SIPs) to implement, maintain, and enforce 
the NAAQS.
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    \1\ See 44 FR 8202 (February 8, 1979).
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    Under the Clean Air Act, as amended in 1977, EPA designated all 
areas of the country as ``nonattainment,'' ``attainment,'' or 
``unclassifiable'' with respect to each NAAQS, and in so doing, 
designated the South Coast \2\ as a nonattainment area for 
photochemical oxidant (later ozone). See 43 FR 8962 (March 3, 1978). 
States with nonattainment areas are required to submit revisions to 
their SIPs that include a control strategy necessary to demonstrate how 
the area will attain the NAAQS, and EPA took action on a number of 
related SIP revisions submitted by the California Air Resources Board 
(CARB) in the late 1970s and 1980s for the South Coast 1-hour ozone 
nonattainment area.\3\ However, by 1990, like many other areas 
throughout the country, the South Coast had not attained the 1-hour 
ozone standard, and under the CAA Amendments of 1990, the South Coast 
was classified as an ``extreme'' nonattainment area for the 1-hour 
ozone standard with an attainment deadline of November 15, 2010 (56 FR 
56694, November 6, 1991) and was subject to additional SIP planning 
requirements, including a revised attainment demonstration.
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    \2\ The South Coast includes Orange County, the southwestern 
two-thirds of Los Angeles County, southwestern San Bernardino 
County, and western Riverside County (see 40 CFR 81.305).
    \3\ Under California law, CARB is the state agency that is 
responsible for submitting SIPs and SIP revisions to EPA. CARB is 
also responsible for the regulation of mobile sources in California. 
Regional air quality management districts, such as the South Coast 
Air Quality Management District (SCAQMD or ``District''), are 
responsible for developing and adopting regional air quality plans 
and for regulating stationary sources. Once adopted, the plans 
developed by the regional air quality management districts are 
submitted to CARB for adoption as part of the California SIP and 
then submitted to EPA for approval or disapproval under section 110 
of the CAA.
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    In the wake of the classification of the South Coast nonattainment 
area as ``extreme'' for the 1-hour ozone standard, CARB submitted a 
number of SIP revisions for the South Coast that contained attainment 
demonstrations for the 1-hour ozone standard and that relied on a 
combination of mobile source control measures adopted by CARB and 
stationary source control measures adopted by South Coast Air Quality 
Management District (SCAQMD). In connection with these submittals, EPA 
took the following actions:
     1994 South Coast Air Quality Management Plan (AQMP) and 
related state strategy (``1994 AQMP'')--EPA approved the 1-hour ozone 
attainment demonstration at 62 FR 1150 (January 8, 1997);
     1997 AQMP, as revised in 1999 (``1997/1999 AQMP'')--EPA 
approved the revised 1-hour ozone demonstration at 65 FR 18903 (April 
10, 2000); and
     2003 AQMP and related state strategy (``2003 AQMP'')--EPA 
disapproved the revised 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration at 74 FR 
10176 (March 10, 2009).
    Each of these plans rely on a regulatory foundation of regulations 
adopted and implemented by the SCAQMD, CARB, and EPA for stationary and 
mobile sources, and also include commitments for new or more stringent 
regulations to achieve additional emissions reductions necessary for 
attainment. Each subsequent ozone plan then builds upon the foundation 
of the new or strengthened regulations that were adopted to support the 
previous plan. While the emissions reduction measures implemented under 
these South Coast ozone plans have been successful in reducing ozone 
concentrations in the South Coast,\4\ the South Coast failed to attain 
the 1-hour ozone standard by the applicable attainment date of 2010.\5\
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    \4\ For example, the annual number of days at any one monitoring 
station during which the 1-hour ozone standard was exceeded 
decreased from 103 days to 6 days between 1990 and 2010 despite 
significant increases in population, employment and vehicle travel. 
The maximum 1-hour ozone concentration measured in the South Coast 
decreased from 0.33 ppm to 0.14 ppm over the same period.
    \5\ 76 FR 82133 (December 30, 2011).
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    Meanwhile, in 1997, EPA revised the NAAQS for ozone, setting it at 
0.08 ppm averaged over an 8-hour timeframe (referred to herein as the 
``1997 8-hour ozone standard'') to replace the existing 1-hour ozone 
standard of 0.12 ppm.6 7 In 2004, EPA designated and 
classified the South Coast area as a ``severe-17'' nonattainment area 
for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard but later granted CARB's request to 
reclassify the South Coast to ``extreme'' for the 1997 8-hour ozone 
standard.\8\ The corresponding applicable attainment year for the 1997 
8-hour ozone standard in the South Coast is 2023. In response to this 
designation, CARB submitted the 2007 South Coast AQMP and related 2007 
State Strategy (``2007 AQMP''), and EPA took the following action:
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    \6\ 62 FR 33856 (July 18, 1997).
    \7\ On March 27, 2008 (73 FR 16436), EPA lowered the 8-hour 
ozone standard to 0.075 ppm (the 2008 8-hour ozone standard), and on 
May 21, 2012, EPA designated the South Coast as extreme 
nonattainment for the 2008 8-hour ozone standard (77 FR 30088). 
Today's proposed action relates to an attainment demonstration for 
the 1-hour ozone standard that relies heavily on the control 
strategy approved for attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard. 
Attainment demonstrations for the more stringent 2008 8-hour ozone 
standard are not yet due.
    \8\ 69 FR 23858 (April 30, 2004); 75 FR 24409 (May 5, 2010).
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     2007 AQMP and 2007 State Strategy, as amended in 2009 and 
2011--EPA approved the attainment demonstration for the 1997 8-hour 
ozone standard at 77 FR 12674 (March 1, 2012), amended at 77 FR 70707 
(November 27, 2012).
    The 8-hour ozone control strategy in the 2007 AQMP builds upon the 
control strategy established under the previous 1-hour ozone plans. In 
connection with EPA's 2012 approval of the South Coast attainment 
demonstration for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the 2007 AQMP, EPA 
approved a number of commitments by CARB and the SCAQMD as part of the 
California SIP, including commitments to bring certain defined measures 
before their respective boards by certain dates, commitments to achieve 
certain aggregate emissions reductions by certain milestone years, and 
a commitment to achieve emissions reductions from development and 
implementation of advanced control technologies under CAA section 
182(e)(5). Of particular relevance for this proposed action, EPA 
approved CARB's commitment to achieve aggregate emissions reductions 
(beyond those already accounted for in the baseline) of 52 tons per day 
(tpd) of VOC and 144 tpd of NOX in the South Coast by 2020, 
and CARB's commitment under section 182(e)(5) to achieve an additional 
40 tpd of VOC and 241 tpd of NOX in the South Coast by 2023.
    As noted above, the last South Coast 1-hour ozone attainment 
demonstration on which EPA took action was the one included in the 2003 
AQMP. The 2003 AQMP revised the 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration 
approved as part of the 1997/1999 AQMP in light of new modeling results 
that showed that the approved strategy from the 1997/1999 AQMP would 
not provide for attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard by the 2010 
attainment deadline.

[[Page 29714]]

    EPA disapproved the revised 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration 
in the 2003 AQMP because a number of state control measures upon which 
the demonstration relied had been withdrawn from consideration. EPA's 
action on the 2003 AQMP was successfully challenged. In response to the 
court's decision \9\ and in recognition of the fact that the South 
Coast had in fact failed to attain the 1-hour ozone standard by 2010, 
EPA issued a ``SIP call'' to California at 78 FR 889 (January 7, 2013) 
under CAA section 110(k)(5).\10\ In our final SIP call, we explained 
that states remain obligated to adopt and implement an attainment 
demonstration plan for the 1-hour ozone standard, notwithstanding the 
revocation of the 1-hour ozone standard in 2005, under EPA's ``anti-
backsliding'' regulations governing the transition from the 1-hour 
ozone standard to the 1997 8-hour ozone standard.\11\ See 40 CFR 
51.905(a)(1)(i).
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    \9\ See Association of Irritated Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d 584 
(9th Cir. 2011), reprinted as amended on January 27, 2012, 686 F.3d 
668, further amended February 13, 2012.
    \10\ Section 110(k)(5) provides, in relevant part, that: 
``Whenever [EPA] finds that the [SIP] for any area is substantially 
inadequate to attain or maintain the relevant [NAAQS], . . . , or to 
otherwise comply with any requirement of this chapter, [EPA] shall 
require the State to revise the plan as necessary to correct such 
inadequacies.''
    \11\ Our finding of substantial inadequacy under CAA section 
110(k)(5) for failure to ``adopt and implement'' a 1-hour ozone 
attainment demonstration is not intended as a finding of 
nonimplementation under CAA section 179(a)(4).
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    Under our SIP call, California was required to submit a SIP 
revision that meets the requirements of CAA section 182(c)(2)(A) \12\ 
and that demonstrates attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard as 
expeditiously as practicable but no later than five years from the 
effective date of the final SIP call, absent justification for a later 
date, not to exceed 10 years beyond the effective date of the final SIP 
call. In considering whether a period longer than five years is 
warranted, EPA must consider the severity of the remaining 
nonattainment problem in the South Coast and the availability and 
feasibility of pollution control measures. See CAA section 172(a)(2).
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    \12\ Under CAA section 182(c)(2)(A), the State must submit a 
revision to the SIP that includes a demonstration that the plan, as 
revised, will provide for attainment of the ozone NAAQS. The 
attainment demonstration must be based on photochemical grid 
modeling or any other analytical method determined by EPA to be at 
least as effective. Section 182(c)(2)(A) applies within ozone 
nonattainment areas classified as ``serious,'' but as a general 
matter, areas classified as ``extreme'' for the ozone nonattainment 
area, such as the South Coast, are subject to the requirements for 
lower-classified areas, such as those for ``serious'' areas, as well 
as those prescribed specifically for ``extreme'' areas.
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    The subject of today's proposed action is a SIP revision that was 
submitted in part to respond to EPA's SIP call for a revised attainment 
demonstration for the 1-hour ozone standard. As discussed later in this 
document, the submitted 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration relies 
heavily on the approved control strategy for the 1997 8-hour ozone 
standard that is discussed above in connection with EPA's approval of 
the 2007 AQMP.

II. EPA's Review of California's Submittal

    On December 7, 2012, SCAQMD adopted the Final 2012 Air Quality 
Management Plan (``2012 AQMP''), and later forwarded it to CARB for 
approval and submittal to EPA. The 2012 AQMP updates the approved 1997 
8-hour ozone control strategy, includes attainment demonstrations for 
the 1-hour ozone standard and the 2006 PM2.5 standard, and 
includes demonstrations intended to address the vehicle-miles-traveled 
emissions offset requirements of CAA section 182(d)(1)(A) \13\ for the 
1-hour ozone and 1997 8-hour ozone standards. With respect to the 1997 
8-hour ozone standard, in adopting the 2012 AQMP, the SCAQMD indicated 
that, while the 2012 AQMP updates the approved 1997 8-hour ozone 
control strategy with new measures designed to reduce reliance on CAA 
section 182(e)(5) long-term (i.e., advanced control technologies) 
measures for VOC and NOX reductions, it is not intended as 
an update to other elements of the approved 8-hour ozone control 
plan.\14\
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    \13\ Under CAA section 182(d)(1)(A), states with severe or 
extreme ozone nonattainment areas must submit SIP revisions that 
identify and adopt specific transportation control strategies and 
transportation control measures to offset any growth in emissions 
from growth in vehicle miles traveled or numbers of vehicle trips in 
such areas.
    \14\ See SCAQMD Governing Board Resolution No. 12-19 (December 
7, 2012).
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    On January 25, 2013, CARB adopted the 2012 AQMP as a revision to 
the California SIP. On February 13, 2013, CARB submitted the 2012 AQMP 
to EPA along with the relevant CARB and SCAQMD board resolutions and 
other supporting material. In adopting the 2012 AQMP, CARB committed to 
develop, adopt, and submit contingency measures by 2019 if advanced 
control technology measures do not achieve planned reductions as 
required by CAA section 182(e)(5).\15\ As noted above, the 2012 AQMP 
contains a number of SIP elements for a number of pollutants. Today, we 
are proposing action on the portions of the 2012 AQMP that update the 
approved 1997 8-hour ozone control strategy from the 2007 AQMP and that 
provide an attainment demonstration for the 1-hour ozone standard. 
Specifically, the relevant elements of the 2012 AQMP covered by our 
proposed action include:
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    \15\ See CARB Board Resolution No. 13-3 (January 25, 2013).
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     CARB's resolution of adoption (Resolution 13-3);
     SCAQMD's resolution of adoption (Resolution 12-19);
     The ozone-related portions of chapter 4 of the 2012 AQMP 
(``Control Strategy and Implementation'');
     Appendices IV-A (``District's Stationary Source Control 
Measures''), IV-B (``Proposed Section 182(e)(5) Implementation 
Measures''), and IV-C (``Regional Transportation Strategy and Control 
Measures''); and
     Appendix VII (``South Coast 2012 1-hour ozone attainment 
demonstration''), which includes 4 attachments, one of which includes a 
demonstration of reasonably available control measures (RACM).

In addition, EPA requested clarification of the commitments made by 
SCAQMD and CARB in connection with the 1-hour ozone attainment 
demonstration in the 2012 AQMP, and the two agencies responded with the 
following letters clarifying their respective commitments:
     Letter from Barry R. Wallerstein, D.Env, SCAQMD Executive 
Officer, to Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX, 
May 1, 2014 (``Wallerstein Letter''); and
     Letter from Richard W. Corey, Executive Officer, CARB, to 
Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region IX, May 2, 2014 
(``Corey Letter'').
    For simplicity, in referring to the elements on which we are 
acting, we are using the term ``2012 AQMP'' even though we recognize 
that the 2012 AQMP includes other elements in addition to those covered 
in this proposed action.
    The 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration includes base year and 
future year emissions inventory estimates, a control strategy and RACM 
demonstrations, and an attainment demonstration based on photochemical 
modeling. The control strategy for the revised 1-hour ozone 
demonstration relies on the same SCAQMD measures referred to by SCAQMD 
as new measures that update the approved 1997 8-hour ozone control 
strategy.

A. CAA Procedural and Administrative Requirements for SIP Submittals

    CAA sections 110(a)(1) and (2) and 110(l) require a state to 
provide reasonable public notice and opportunity for public hearing 
prior to

[[Page 29715]]

the adoption and submittal of a SIP or SIP revision. To meet this 
requirement, every SIP submittal should include evidence that adequate 
public notice was given and a public hearing was held consistent with 
EPA's implementing regulations in 40 CFR 51.102.
    The SCAQMD provided a public comment period and held a public 
hearing prior to its December 7, 2012 adoption of the 2012 AQMP. CARB 
provided the required public notice and opportunity for public comment 
prior to its January 25, 2013 public hearing on the 2012 AQMP. CARB's 
February 13, 2013 SIP submittal package includes notices of the SCAQMD 
and CARB public hearings, as evidence that all hearings were properly 
noticed. We therefore find that CARB's February 13, 2013 SIP revision 
submittal meets the procedural requirements of CAA sections 110(a) and 
110(l).

B. Attainment Demonstration Requirements

    CAA section 182(c)(2)(A) requires states with ozone nonattainment 
areas classified as serious, severe or extreme to submit plans that 
demonstrate attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard as expeditiously as 
practicable but no later than the outside date established in the CAA. 
The attainment demonstration should include technical analyses that 
locate and identify sources of emissions that are contributing to 
violations of the 1-hour ozone standard within the nonattainment area 
and adopted measures with schedules for implementation and other means 
and techniques necessary and appropriate for attainment. In order to 
determine whether the area has demonstrated attainment ``as 
expeditiously as practicable,'' the area must provide a demonstration 
that all RACM are implemented. CAA 172(c)(1). In addition, the ``. . . 
attainment demonstration must be based on photochemical grid modeling 
or any other analytical method determined by the Administrator . . . to 
be at least as effective.'' CAA section 182(c)(2)(A).
1. Emissions Inventories
a. Requirements for Emissions Inventories
    Attainment demonstrations rely upon emissions inventories that 
reflect different scenarios, including existing conditions (``base 
year'') and future ``baseline'' conditions. The base year emission 
inventory must be a comprehensive, accurate, current inventory of 
actual emissions from all sources of the relevant pollutant. Future 
baseline emissions inventories must reflect the most recent population, 
employment, travel and congestion estimates for the area. In this 
context, ``baseline'' emissions represent an estimate of the emissions 
that would occur in an area if no additional controls other than those 
already adopted are implemented.
b. Base Year and Future Baseline Emissions Inventories in the 2012 AQMP
    The 2012 AQMP includes a 2008 base year and a 2022 baseline 
emissions inventory for the South Coast 1-hour nonattainment area. 
Documentation for these inventories is found in appendix III (``Base 
and Future Year Emission Inventory''), and section 3 of appendix VII, 
of the 2012 AQMP. The 2008 base year ozone precursor inventory provides 
the basis for the control measure analysis and the attainment 
demonstration in the South Coast 2012 1-hour ozone attainment 
demonstration.
    VOC and NOX emissions are grouped into two general 
categories, stationary sources and mobile sources. Stationary sources 
can be further divided into ``point'' and ``area'' sources. Point 
sources typically refer to permitted facilities and have one or more 
identified and fixed pieces of equipment and emissions points. 
Permitted facilities are required to report their emissions to the 
SCAQMD Annual Emissions Reporting Program. Area sources consist of 
widespread and numerous smaller emission sources, such as small 
permitted facilities, households, and road dust. The mobile sources 
category can be divided into two major subcategories, ``on-road'' and 
``off-road'' mobile sources. On-road mobile sources include light-duty 
automobiles, light-, medium-, and heavy-duty trucks, and motorcycles. 
Off-road mobile sources include aircraft, locomotives, construction 
equipment, mobile equipment, and recreational vehicles.
    The emissions inventories in the 2012 AQMP were developed using 
data provided by CARB, the California Department of Transportation, and 
SCAG. These agencies collect data (industry growth factors, socio-
economic projections, travel activity levels, emission factors, 
emission speciation profiles, and emissions) and developing 
methodologies (for example, model and demographic forecast 
improvements) used to generate comprehensive emissions inventories. 
CARB maintains statewide inventories in its California Emissions 
Inventory Development and Reporting System (CEIDARS) and California 
Emission Forecasting and Planning Inventory (CEFIS).\16\
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    \16\ See 2012 AQMP, Appendix III.
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    Area source inventories are developed by CARB and the District for 
approximately 400 area source categories. For the 2008 base year 
inventory, a number of area source category emissions inventories used 
existing methodologies with updated activity data such as fuel or sales 
data. Both CARB and the District are continuously updating and 
improving emissions inventory methodologies; for this plan, five new 
categories were added to the inventory, other methodologies were 
refined, and some area source categories were expanded.\17\
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    \17\ See 2012 AQMP, Appendix III, pages III-1-5, III-1-11, and 
III-1-14-15.
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    CARB prepares on-road and most of the off-road inventories from its 
Emission FACtor (EMFAC) 2011 model and 2011 In-Use Fleet Off-Road 
models.\18\ Caltrans provides information on highway projects. SCAG 
uses these data to estimate and project vehicle miles travelled (VMT) 
and speeds. SCAG also provides socioeconomic projections and 
projections of transportation activity data for use in on-road 
inventory development.
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    \18\ EMFAC 2011 was approved by EPA for use in SIPs on March 6, 
2013 (see 78 FR 14533).
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    Table 1 depicts a summary of the 2008 VOC and NOX 
emissions inventory for the South Coast 1-hour ozone nonattainment area 
as presented in the 2012 AQMP. Emissions estimates in table 1 are 
broken down by the major source categories described above. Based on 
the inventory for 2008, stationary and area sources currently account 
for 40 percent of VOC emissions, and 10 percent of the NOX 
emissions, in the South Coast while mobile sources account for 60 
percent of the VOC emissions and 90 percent of the NOX 
emissions.

[[Page 29716]]



  Table 1--Summary of South Coast Air Basin 2008 VOC and NOX Emissions
                                Inventory
                    [Summer planning inventory, tpd]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Source category                     VOC          NOX
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel Combustion...............................           14           41
Waste Disposal................................           12            2
Cleaning and Surface Coatings.................           43            0
Petroleum Production and Marketing............           41            0
Industrial Processes..........................           19            0
Solvent Processes.............................          126            0
Miscellaneous Processes.......................            9           44
                                               -------------------------
    Subtotal--Stationary and Area Sources.....          264           87
On-road Vehicles..............................          213          426
Off-road Vehicles.............................          162          208
                                               -------------------------
    Subtotal--Mobile Sources..................          375          634
                                               -------------------------
        Total--South Coast....................          639          721
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Source: 2012 AQMP, appendix VII, table VII-3-1.

    Table 2 presents a summary of future baseline emissions in the 
South Coast in 2022. In this instance, future baseline emissions 
reflect SCAQMD regulations adopted as of June 2012 and CARB rules 
adopted by August 2011 \19\ as well as the latest forecasts of growth 
in population, employment, and vehicle travel. Generally, EPA will 
approve a State plan that takes emissions reduction credit for a 
control measure only where EPA has approved the measure as part of the 
SIP, or in the case of certain on-road and nonroad (or ``off-road'') 
measures, where EPA has issued the related waiver of preemption or 
authorization under CAA section 209(b) or section 209(e). Thus, to take 
credit for the emissions reductions from newly-adopted or amended 
SCAQMD rules for stationary sources, the related rules must be approved 
by EPA into the SIP.
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    \19\ See 2012 AQMP, Appendix III, page III-1-1.
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    Table 3 lists the SCAQMD regulations for which specific emissions 
reduction credit was taken in the future baseline emissions estimates 
for the 2012 AQMP. See 2012 AQMP, appendix III, table III-2-2B. As 
shown in table 3, EPA has approved all of these regulations into the 
SIP. Most of these regulations have been amended a number of times by 
SCAQMD, and, with three exceptions, EPA has approved the most recently 
amended versions of the regulations into the SIP. As to the three 
exceptions (Rules 1146, 1146.1, and 1147), EPA anticipates taking final 
action on the most recently amended versions of the regulations prior 
to taking final action on the revised 1-hour ozone attainment 
demonstration.
    With respect to mobile sources, we have placed a table in the 
docket that shows, among other things, the CARB regulations adopted 
through August 2011. In general, CARB regulations adopted through 
August 2011 and included in the future baseline are approved into the 
SIP, waived or authorized and thus emissions reduction credit for them 
in the future baseline is warranted. For example, EPA approved CARB's 
Truck and Bus Rule at 77 FR 20308 (April 4, 2012); EPA authorized 
CARB's Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment Regulation at 78 FR 58090 
(September 20, 2013); EPA authorized CARB's At-Berth Regulation, which 
reduces emissions from diesel auxiliary engines on contained ships, 
passenger ships and refrigerated cargo ships while berthing at a 
California port, at 76 FR 77515 (December 13, 2011); and EPA waived 
preemption for CARB's Truck Idling Regulation at 77 FR 9239 (February 
16, 2012). EPA is anticipating final action on CARB's amended Consumer 
Products Regulation prior to taking final action on the revised 1-hour 
ozone attainment demonstration.

  Table 2--Summary of South Coast Air Basin 2022 VOC and NOX Emissions
                                Inventory
                    [Summer planning inventory, tpd]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Source category                     VOC          NOX
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Fuel Combustion...............................           14           28
Waste Disposal................................           14            2
Cleaning and Surface Coatings.................           55            0
Petroleum Production and Marketing............           36            0
Industrial Processes..........................           17            0
Solvent Processes.............................          112            0
Miscellaneous Processes.......................            9           40
                                               -------------------------
    Subtotal--Stationary and Area Sources.....          258           70
On-road Vehicles..............................           73          131
Off-road Vehicles.............................          109          137
                                               -------------------------
    Subtotal--Mobile Sources..................          182          267
                                               -------------------------
        Total--South Coast....................          440          337
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Interpolated for year 2022 from 2012 AQMP, Appendix III, tables
  B-4 and B-5.


[[Page 29717]]

    Emissions in table 2 are also broken down by the major source 
categories described above. A comparison between future baseline 
emissions in table 2 with the corresponding base year (2008) emissions 
in table 1 shows that, assuming current controls, there will be only 
modest changes in emissions from stationary and area sources but 
substantial decreases in emissions from mobile sources. However, even 
with the substantial decrease in mobile sources emissions relative to 
2008, mobile sources will still account for 40 percent of the VOC, and 
80 percent of the NOX, basin-wide inventory in 2022.

                    Table 3--District Measures Included in the Future Year Baseline Emissions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        Date of SCAQMD adoption or most    EPA Approval (unless
            Rule                    Description                 recent amendment             otherwise noted)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rule 1110.2.................  Emissions from Gaseous-  February 1, 2008.................  74 FR 18995, April 27,
                               and Liquid-Fueled                                           2009.
                               Internal Combustion
                               Engines.
Rule 1111...................  Reduction of NOX         November 6, 2009.................  75 FR 46845, August 4,
                               Emissions from Natural-                                     2010.
                               Gas-Fired, Fan-Type
                               Central Furnaces.
Rule 1113...................  Architectural Coatings.  June 3, 2011.....................  78 FR 18244, March 26,
                                                                                           2013.
Rule 1118...................  Control of Emissions     November 4, 2005.................  72 FR 49196, August
                               from Refinery Flares.                                       28, 2007.
Rule 1121...................  Control of Nitrogen      September 3, 2004................  74 FR 20880, May 6,
                               Oxides from                                                 2009.
                               Residential-Type
                               Natural-Gas-fired
                               Water Waters.
Rule 1133.2.................  Emissions Reductions     January 10, 2003.................  69 FR 43518, July 21,
                               from Co-Composting                                          2004.
                               Operations.
Rule 1133.3.................  Emission Reductions      July 8, 2011.....................  77 FR 71129, November
                               from Greenwaste                                             29, 2012.
                               Composting Operations.
Rule 1143...................  Consumer Paint Thinners  December 3, 2010.................  76 FR 70888, November
                               and Multipurpose                                            16, 2011.
                               Solvents.
Rule 1144...................  Metalworking Fluids and  July 9, 2010.....................  76 FR 70888, November
                               Direct Contact                                              16, 2011.
                               Lubricants.
Rule 1146...................  Emissions of Oxides of   September 5, 2008................  Proposed limited
                               Nitrogen from                                               approval/limited
                               Industrial,                                                 disapproval at 76 FR
                               Institutional, and                                          40303 (July 8, 2011).
                               Commercial Boilers,
                               Steam Generators and
                               Process Heaters.
Rule 1146.1.................  Emissions of Oxides of   September 5, 2008................  Proposed limited
                               Nitrogen from Small                                         approval/limited
                               Industrial,                                                 disapproval at 76 FR
                               Institutional, and                                          40303 (July 8, 2011).
                               Commercial Boilers,
                               Steam Generators and
                               Process Heaters.
Rule 1146.2.................  Emissions of Oxides of   May 5, 2006......................  73 FR 74027, December
                               Nitrogen from Large                                         5, 2008.
                               Water Heaters and
                               Small Boilers and
                               Process Heaters.
Rule 1147...................  NOX Reductions from      September 9, 2011................  December 5, 2008
                               Miscellaneous Sources.                                      version of rule
                                                                                           approved at 75 FR
                                                                                           46845, August 4,
                                                                                           2010.
Rule 1149...................  Storage Tank and         May 2, 2008......................  74 FR 67821, December
                               Pipeline Cleaning and                                       21, 2009.
                               Degassing.
Rule 1151...................  Motor Vehicle and        December 2, 2005.................  78 FR 58959, September
                               Mobile Equipment Non-                                       24, 2013.
                               Assembly Line Coating
                               Operations.
Rule 1177...................  Liquefied Petroleum Gas  June 1, 2012.....................  79 FR 364, January 3,
                               Transfer and                                                2014.
                               Dispensing.
Rule 1178...................  Further Reductions of    April 7, 2006....................  72 FR 49196, August
                               VOC Emissions from                                          28, 2007.
                               Storage Tanks at
                               Petroleum Facilities.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

    We have reviewed the emissions inventories developed for the 2012 
South Coast 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration, and the inventory 
methodologies used by the SCAQMD for consistency with CAA requirements 
and EPA's guidance. We find that the 2008 base year inventory is a 
comprehensive, accurate, and current inventory of ozone precursor 
emissions in the South Coast 1-hour ozone nonattainment area, and that 
2008 is an appropriate base year for the revised 1-hour ozone 
attainment demonstration, and that the future baseline emissions 
projections for 2022 reflect appropriate emissions calculation methods 
and the latest planning assumptions. Therefore, we find the base year 
and future baseline emissions inventories to be acceptable for the 
purposes of developing a 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration.
2. South Coast 1-Hour Ozone Plan Control Strategy
a. Requirements for Control Strategies and RACM Demonstrations
    EPA's SIP call required California to submit a SIP revision that 
meets the requirements of CAA section 182(c)(2)(A), which requires a 
demonstration that the SIP, as revised, will provide for attainment of 
the 1-hour ozone standard by the applicable attainment date. 78 FR 889, 
at 890 (January 7, 2013). In this case, the applicable attainment date 
is prescribed by CAA section 172(a)(2)(A), which is the date by which 
attainment can be achieved as expeditiously as practicable, but no 
later than February 6, 2018 (five years from the effective date of the 
SIP call). However, EPA may extend the attainment date to the extent 
EPA determines appropriate, for a period of no greater than February 6, 
2023 (ten years from the effective date of the SIP call), considering 
the severity of nonattainment and the availability and feasibility of 
pollution control measures.
    The 2012 AQMP includes a demonstration of attainment for the 1-hour 
ozone standard by December 31, 2022 and thus relies on an extension 
beyond the five-year deadline under CAA section 172(a)(2)(A). In 
section II.B.3 of this document, we provide our rationale for proposing 
approval of the extension in the attainment date to December 31, 2022. 
Our proposed approval of December 31, 2022 as the applicable attainment 
date depends in part upon California's showing that the 2012 AQMP 
provides for implementation of all RACM as

[[Page 29718]]

expeditiously as practicable (including such reductions in emissions 
from existing sources in the area as may be obtained through the 
adoption, at a minimum, of reasonably available control technology 
(RACT)). See CAA section 172(c)(1).
    In addition to RACM, to meet the requirements of CAA section 
182(c)(2)(A), a 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration must include 
other ``enforceable emission limitations, and such other control 
measures, means or techniques * * *, as well as schedules and 
timetables for compliance, as may be necessary or appropriate to 
provide for attainment * * * by the applicable attainment date * * *.'' 
CAA section 172(c)(6). The CAA allows ozone nonattainment areas 
classified as ``extreme,'' such as the South Coast, to include 
``provisions * * * which anticipate development of new control 
techniques or improvement of existing control technologies, * * * if 
the State demonstrates * * * that--(A) such provisions are not 
necessary to achieve the incremental emission reductions required 
during the first 10 years after the date of the enactment of the Clean 
Air Act Amendments of 1990; and (B) the State has submitted enforceable 
commitments to develop and adopt contingency measures to be implemented 
* * * if the anticipated technologies do not achieve planned 
reductions.'' CAA section 182(e)(5). The measures included in the plan 
that describe the mechanisms for developing and implementing new 
control techniques or improvements in existing control technologies and 
achieving the planned emissions reductions are referred to as ``new 
technology'' measures.
    The control strategy for the 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration 
in the 2012 AQMP relies on all three types of strategies to reduce 
basin-wide emissions to the extent necessary to demonstrate attainment 
of the 1-hour ozone standard (i.e., reduce emissions to 410 tpd of VOC 
and 150 tpd of NOX): implementation of RACM; other control 
measures, means or techniques; and new technology measures. In this 
case, the phrase, ``other control measures, means, or techniques'' 
refers to the commitments made by the SCAQMD and CARB to bring certain 
regulatory initiatives to their respective boards on a certain schedule 
and to meet certain aggregate emissions reductions in certain years. 
The overall control strategy and emissions reductions from the various 
components is presented in table 4.

 Table 4--Summary of South Coast's 1-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration
                            Control Strategy
                    [Summer planning inventory (tpd)]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Emissions scenario                    VOC          NOX
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Year 2008 Base Year \a\.......................          593          754
Emission Reductions from Baseline Measures....          153          419
                                               -------------------------
    Year 2022 Baseline........................          440          335
SCAQMD's New Aggregate Emissions Reduction                6           11
 Commitment...................................
CARB's Existing Aggregate Emissions Reduction             7           24
 Commitment...................................
New Technology Measures.......................           17          150
Year 2022 With Fulfillment of Commitments.....          410          150
------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ The modeling runs that were used to demonstrate attainment of the 1-
  hour ozone standard in the 2012 AQMP were based on the base year
  (2008) summer planning inventories (see table 1 above) with
  adjustments made for weekly and daily temperature variations. See 2010
  AQMP, appendix VII, page VII-51.

    With respect to commitments, the 1-hour ozone attainment 
demonstration in the 2012 AQMP includes certain new commitments adopted 
by SCAQMD and relies on existing commitments by CARB that were approved 
by EPA through approval of the attainment demonstration for the 1997 8-
hour ozone standard in the 2007 AQMP. The ``new technology'' provision 
in the 2012 AQMP updates the corresponding provision in the 2007 AQMP 
by proving greater specificity in the description of the actions that 
are or will be taken to achieve emissions reductions from development 
or deployment of advanced control technologies or techniques. The focus 
of the ``new technology'' provisions is the mobile source category of 
emissions in light of the extent to which such sources contribute to 
the overall inventory of ozone precursors.
b. 2012 AQMP RACM Demonstration
    CAA section 172(c)(1) requires that each attainment plan ``provide 
for the implementation of all reasonably available control measures as 
expeditiously as practicable (including such reductions in emissions 
from existing sources in the area as may be obtained through the 
adoption, at a minimum, of reasonably available control technology), 
and shall provide for attainment of the national primary ambient air 
quality standards.''
    EPA has previously provided guidance interpreting the RACM 
requirement in the General Preamble at 13560 \20\ and in a memorandum 
entitled ``Guidance on Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM) 
Requirements and Attainment Demonstration Submissions for the Ozone 
NAAQS,'' John Seitz, November 30, 1999. (Seitz memo). In summary, EPA 
guidance provides that to address the requirement to adopt all RACM, 
states should consider all potentially reasonable control measures for 
source categories in the nonattainment area to determine whether they 
are reasonably available for implementation in that area and whether 
they would, if implemented individually or collectively, advance the 
area's attainment date by one year or more. See Seitz memo and General 
Preamble at 13560; see also ``State Implementation Plans; General 
Preamble for Proposed Rulemaking on Approval of Plan Revisions for 
Nonattainment Areas,'' 44 FR 20372 (April 4, 1979) and Memorandum dated 
December 14, 2000, from John S. Seitz, Director, Office of Air Quality 
Planning and Standards, ``Additional Submission on RACM from States 
with Severe One-Hour Ozone Nonattainment Area SIPs.'' In the following 
paragraphs, we discuss each element of the control strategy and provide 
a rationale for why we find it acceptable.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \20\ The ``General Preamble for the Implementation of Title I of 
the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990,'' published at 57 FR 13498 on 
April 16, 1992, describes EPA's preliminary view on how we would 
interpret various SIP planning provisions in title I of the CAA as 
amended in 1990, including those planning provisions applicable to 
the 1-hour ozone standard.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    First, as noted above, EPA approved the 2007 AQMP for the 1997 8-
hour ozone NAAQS in 2012. As part of that

[[Page 29719]]

action, EPA approved the related RACM demonstration. See 77 FR 12674, 
at 12694 (March 1, 2012). In so doing, we approved the individual 
stationary-source RACM demonstration from SCAQMD, the transportation-
related RACM demonstration from SCAG, and the mobile and area source 
RACM demonstration from CARB. See 76 FR 57872, at 57877-57881 
(September 16, 2011).
    To update the RACM demonstration for the 2012 AQMP, the SCAQMD 
followed a similar process as it had used for the 2007 AQMP. That is, 
the SCAQMD conducted a process to identify RACM for the South Coast 
that involved public meetings to solicit input, evaluation of EPA's 
suggested RACM, and evaluation of other air agencies' regulations. See 
2012 AQMP, appendix VII, attachment 4. As part of this process, the 
SCAQMD evaluated measures implemented in other nonattainment areas 
based on the severity of the nonattainment situation as well as 
attainment dates (including the San Joaquin Valley, the San Francisco 
Bay Area, Ventura, Dallas-Fort Worth, the New York Metro area, and the 
Houston-Galveston area) and measures identified by the Lake Michigan 
Air Directors Consortium (LADCO). The SCAQMD also held meetings with 
CARB, technical experts, local government representatives, and the 
public during development of the 2012 AQMP, and sponsored an air 
quality technology symposium in September of 2011, which generated 
additional potential control measures. In addition, the SCAQMD 
reevaluated existing SIP-approved SCAQMD rules and regulations.
    From the set of identified potential controls, the SCAQMD then 
screened the identified measures and rejected those that would not 
individually or collectively advance attainment in the area, had 
already been adopted as rules, or were in the process of being adopted. 
The remaining measures were evaluated taking into account baseline 
inventories, available control technologies, and potential emission 
reductions as well as whether the measure could be implemented on a 
schedule that would advance attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard by 
at least a year, assuming a 2022 attainment deadline. In addition, to 
capture all improvements in innovative control technologies and 
identify areas for improvement in its regulations, SCAQMD staff 
reevaluated all the SCAQMD's source-specific rules and regulations and 
compared these requirements to more than 100 rules that had recently 
been adopted in four other California air districts (San Joaquin 
Valley, Sacramento, Ventura, and San Francisco Bay Area).\21\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \21\ 2012 AQMP, appendix VII, attachment 4, page VII-10.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Based on its RACM analysis summarized above, SCAQMD concluded that, 
in general, its existing rules and regulations are equivalent to, or 
more stringent than, other Districts' rules. In the few areas where 
this was not the case, SCAQMD staff have developed one or more control 
measures for inclusion in the 2012 AQMP. In adopting the 2012 AQMP, the 
SCAQMD committed to develop, adopt, submit and implement 15 new 
measures, including measures at least as stringent as those identified 
in other California districts' SIPs, and several innovative measures. 
Table 5 lists these measures along with the related adoption and 
implementation date, and estimated emissions reductions. For a detailed 
description of the measures to which the SCAQMD has committed, please 
see appendix VI-A of the 2012 AQMP.

              Table 5--District Control Measures in 2012 AQMP 1-Hour Ozone Attainment Demonstration
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                         Reduction (tons per day
                                                                                             (tpd)) by 2023
          Number and title                    Adoption          Implementation period  -------------------------
                                                                                            VOC          NOX
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
CTS-01--Further VOC Reductions from   2015-2016..............  2018-2020..............          2-4  ...........
 Architectural Coatings (Rule 1113).
CTS-02--Further Emission Reduction    2013-2016..............  2015-2018..............          1-2  ...........
 from Miscellaneous Coatings,
 Adhesives, Solvents and Lubricants.
CTS-03--Further VOC Reductions from   2014...................  2016...................        0.8-2  ...........
 Mold Release Products.
CMB-01--Further NOX Reductions from   2015...................  2020...................  ...........          3-5
 RECLAIM.
CMB-02--NOX Reductions from Biogas    2015...................  Beginning 2017.........  ...........          TBD
 Flares.
CMB-03--Reductions from Commercial    Phase I--2014 (Tech      Beginning 2018.........  ...........         0.18
 Space Heating.                        Assessment), Phase II--
                                       2016.
FUG-01--VOC Reductions from Vacuum    2014...................  2016...................            1  ...........
 Trucks.
FUG-02--Emission Reduction from LPG   2015...................  2017...................          1-2  ...........
 Transfer and Dispensing--Phase II.
FUG-03--Further Reductions from       2015-2016..............  2017-2018..............          1-2  ...........
 Fugitive VOC Emissions.
MCS-01--Application of All Feasible   Ongoing................  Ongoing................          TBD          TBD
 Measures.
MCS-02--Further Emission Reductions   2015...................  2016...................            1  ...........
 from Green waste Processing
 (Chipping and Grinding Operations
 not associated with composting).
MCS-03--Improved Start-up, Shutdown   Phase I--2012 (Tech      Phase I--2013 (Tech              TBD          TBD
 and Turnaround Procedures.            Assessment), Phase II--  Assessment), Phase II--
                                       TBD.                     TBD.
INC-01--Economic Incentive Programs   2014...................  Within 12 months after   ...........          TBD
 to Adopt Zero and Near-Zero                                    funding availability.
 Technologies.
INC-02--Expedited Permitting and      2014-2015..............  Beginning 2015.........          N/A          N/A
 CEQA Preparation Facilitating the
 Manufacturing of Zero and Near-Zero
 Technologies.

[[Page 29720]]

 
EDU-01--Further Criteria Pollutant    Ongoing................  Ongoing................          N/A          N/A
 Reductions from Education, Outreach
 and Incentives.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2012 AQMP, table 4-4. Note: TBD = to be determined once the specific inventory and control approach for
  the measure are identified. N/A = not applicable given nature of the measure.

    More specifically, the SCAQMD has committed to develop, adopt, 
submit and implement the 15 new measures listed in table 5 to achieve, 
in aggregate, emission reductions of 5.8 tpd of VOC and 10.7 tpd of 
NOX by January 1, 2022 unless these measures or a portion 
thereof are found infeasible and substitute measures that can achieve 
equivalent reductions in the same implementation timeframes are 
adopted.\22\ The 2012 AQMP describes a process for public review of 
findings of feasibility and the related measure substitution.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \22\ See 2012 AQMP, pages 4-41 through 4-46, and Wallerstein 
Letter.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As to the few remaining measures that the SCAQMD rejected from its 
RACM analysis, the SCAQMD determined that these measures would not 
advance the attainment date due to the insignificant or unquantifiable 
emissions reductions they would potentially generate. See 2012 AQMP, 
appendix VII, attachment 2, page VII-10. Based on our review of the 
SCAQMD's latest RACM review process and the SCAQMD's proposed 
commitment to new measures (listed in table 5), we find that the 2012 
AQMP demonstrates RACM for stationary sources in the South Coast.
    With respect to transportation sources, SCAG's RACM analysis 
focused on transportation control measures (TCMs). TCMs are, in 
general, measures designed to reduce emissions from on-road motor 
vehicles through reductions in vehicle miles traveled or traffic 
congestion. SCAG's analysis is described in appendix VII, pages VII-20 
to VII-23 of the 2012 AQMP. The TCMs in the 2012 AQMP are derived from 
TCM projects in the 2012-2035 SCAG Regional Transportation Plan/
Sustainable Communities Strategy (RTP/SCS).\23\ SCAG's evaluation, 
described beginning on page VII-20 of appendix VII of the 2012 AQMP, 
resulted in extensive local government commitments to implement 
programs to reduce auto travel and improve traffic flow. Attachment 2 
to appendix VIII (``Vehicle Miles Traveled Emissions Offset 
Demonstration'') to the 2012 AQMP contains the list of TCMs under 
development and newly scheduled TCMs. See also 2012 AQMP, appendix IV-
C.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \23\ The Sustainable Communities Strategy is new to this RTP 
cycle and is required by California Senate Bill 375. While the focus 
of the SCS is greenhouse gases, concurrent criteria pollutant 
reductions occur. The emissions benefits associated with the RTP/SCS 
are reflected in the projected baseline emissions inventories in the 
2012 AQMP. 2012 AQMP, appendix VII, page VII-23.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    In so doing, SCAG evaluated a wide variety of TCMs, including those 
measures listed in CAA section 108(f) and relevant measures adopted in 
other nonattainment areas in the country, and determined that there was 
no combinations of reasonable measures that would advance attainment of 
the 1-hour ozone standard in the South Coast. See 2012 AQMP, appendix 
VII and appendix IV-C. Based on our review of appendix IV-C of the 2012 
AQMP, we agree with the conclusion in the 2012 AQMP that the TCMs being 
implemented in the South Coast are inclusive of all TCM RACM for the 
area.
    As to the mobile source component of the RACM demonstration, in 
2007, CARB adopted the ``California Air Resources Board's Proposed 
State Strategy for California's 2007 State Implementation Plan'' 
(``2007 State Strategy'') through which CARB identified and committed 
to propose new defined measures for on-road and off-road sources and 
the fuels that power them.
    Given the need for significant emissions reductions in California 
nonattainment areas, CARB has been a leader in the development and 
adoption of stringent mobile source control measures nationwide and has 
unique authority under CAA section 209 (subject to a waiver or 
authorization by EPA) to adopt and implement new emission standards for 
many categories of on-road vehicles and engines and new and in-use off-
road vehicles and engines. We have also noted that many if not most of 
these particular measures are being proposed for adoption for the first 
time anywhere in the nation. Like the 2007 AQMP, the 2012 AQMP relies 
on the defined measures adopted by CARB in the 2007 State Strategy 
approved by EPA in 2012, and we agree with the 2012 AQMP's conclusion 
that CARB's mobile source program, approved as RACM in connection with 
the 2007 AQMP, continues to be RACM as it expands and further reduces 
emissions.
    Therefore, for the reasons discussed above, we conclude that the 
2012 AQMP provides for RACM for ozone precursor emissions from 
stationary, transportation, and mobile sources in the South Coast.
c. 2012 AQMP Aggregate Emissions Reductions Commitments
    As described in the previous section of this document, through 
adoption of the 2012 AQMP, the SCAQMD has committed to achieve specific 
aggregate emissions reductions from VOC and NOX sources in 
the South Coast area. Specifically, the SCAQMD has committed to 
develop, adopt, submit and implement measures that will achieve the 
following additional emissions reductions by January 1, 2022: 5.8 tpd 
of VOC and 10.7 tpd of NOX. The SCAQMD expects to meet its 
emissions reductions commitments for VOC and NOX through 
implementation of the 15 measures in table 5, and through 
implementation of the Surplus Off-road Option for NOX (SOON) 
provision for construction/industrial equipment, but reserves the right 
to substitute measures as described in the previous section of this 
document.\24\ CARB has made no new aggregate emissions reduction 
commitment for the purposes of demonstrating attainment of the 1-hour 
ozone standard by December 31, 2022 in the South Coast, but the 2012 
AQMP estimates that CARB's existing, EPA-approved aggregate emissions 
reduction commitment under the 2007 AQMP will provide 7 tpd of VOC and 
24 tpd of NOX reductions by 2022. Considered together, the 
SCAQMD's new aggregate emissions reductions commitment and CARB's

[[Page 29721]]

existing aggregate emissions reductions commitment under the 2007 AQMP 
amount to 13 tpd of VOC and 35 tpd of NOX for the purposes 
of 1-hour attainment in the South Coast by December 31, 2022.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \24\ SCAQMD estimates that extension of the SOON provision will 
achieve 7.5 tpd of NOX reductions by 2022.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    EPA believes that, with respect to the 2012 AQMP 1-hour ozone 
attainment demonstration, circumstances warrant the consideration of 
enforceable commitments as part of the attainment demonstration for the 
South Coast. As shown in table 4 above, the majority of the VOC 
reductions and a substantial portion of NOX emissions 
reductions needed to demonstrate attainment in the South Coast come 
from SCAQMD regulations that were adopted prior to June 2012, and CARB 
regulations that were adopted prior to August 2011, i.e., baseline 
measures that have been or will be approved into the SIP (or issued 
waivers or authorizations) prior to a final approval of the attainment 
demonstration. As a result of these State and District efforts, most 
sources in the South Coast nonattainment area are currently subject to 
stringent rules adopted and approved by EPA (or for which EPA has 
issued waivers or authorization in the case of CARB regulations) prior 
to the development of the 2012 AQMP, leaving few opportunities (and 
generally more technologically and economically challenging ones) to 
further reduce emissions.
    In the 2012 AQMP, the SCAQMD identified potential control measures 
that could provide many of the additional emissions reductions needed 
for attainment. See 2012 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration, 
appendix VII, section 4. However, the timeline needed to develop, 
adopt, and implement these measures went beyond the February 2013 
submittal date of the South Coast 2012 1-hour ozone attainment 
demonstration. These circumstances warrant the SCAQMD's and CARB's 
reliance on enforceable commitments as part of the attainment 
demonstration in the South Coast 2012 1-hour ozone attainment 
demonstration.
    Given the State's demonstrated need for reliance on enforceable 
commitments, we now consider the three factors EPA uses to determine 
whether the use of enforceable commitments in lieu of adopted measures 
to meet a CAA planning requirements is approvable: (1) Does the 
commitment address a limited portion of the statutorily-required 
program; (2) is the state capable of fulfilling its commitment; and (3) 
is the commitment for a reasonable and appropriate period of time.
    For the first factor, we look to see if the commitment addresses a 
limited portion of a statutory requirement, such as the amount of 
emissions reductions needed to demonstrate attainment in a 
nonattainment area. For this calculation, reductions assigned to the 
new technology provision (CAA section 182(e)(5)) are not counted as 
commitments.\25\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \25\ CAA section 182(e)(5) specifically allows EPA to approve an 
attainment demonstration that relies on reductions from new 
technologies. This provision is separate from the requirement in CAA 
section 172(c)(6) for enforceable emissions limitations under which 
enforceable commitments are considered. As a result, reductions 
attributed in the attainment demonstration to new technologies are 
not considered part of the State's enforceable commitments for 
purposes of determining the percentage of reductions needed for 
attainment that remain as commitments.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As shown in table 4 above, the remaining portions of the emission 
reductions needed to demonstrate attainment of the 1-hour ozone 
standard in the South Coast nonattainment area (i.e., of the State's 
total enforceable commitments), after accounting for baseline measures 
and emissions reduction commitments assigned to CAA section 182(e)(5) 
measures, amount to 13 tpd VOC and 35 tpd NOX. When compared 
to the total reductions needed to demonstrate attainment (not including 
the CAA section 182(e)(5) reductions in the attainment demonstration), 
the remaining portion of the enforceable commitments represents 
approximately 7 percent of the needed VOC reductions and approximately 
6 percent of the needed NOX reductions. These percentage 
reductions are consistent with other SIPs for which EPA has approved 
enforceable commitments. See our approval of the SJV PM10 
Plan at 69 FR 30005 (May 26, 2004), the SJV 1-hour ozone plan at 75 FR 
10420 (March 8, 2010), the Houston-Galveston 1-hour ozone plan at 66 FR 
57160 (November 14, 2001), approval of the SJV 2007 PM2.5 
SIP at 76 FR 41338 (November 9, 2011), and approval of the South Coast 
PM2.5 SIP at 76 FR 41562 (November 9, 2011). We believe the 
State's commitment meets the first factor because it addresses a 
limited proportion of the required emission reductions.
    For the second factor, we consider whether the SCAQMD and CARB are 
capable of fulfilling their commitments. The 2012 AQMP includes a 
specific list of regulatory initiatives from which emissions reductions 
are estimated to fulfill that agency's aggregate emissions reduction 
commitment. See table VII-4-2, and control measure OFFRD-01 (i.e., 
extension of the SOON provision) in table VII-4-4 of appendix VII of 
the 2012 AQMP. With respect to CARB's existing aggregate commitment 
from the 2007 AQMP, table VII-4-1 of the 2012 AQMP lists the types of 
measures included in the 2007 AQMP that the State of California could 
implement to meet CARB's existing 2020 aggregate commitment and thereby 
provide the planned emissions reductions for 1-hour ozone attainment 
purposes in 2022. Given the State's and SCAQMD's efforts to date to 
reduce emissions and the proposed stationary and mobile source 
strategies found in the 2012 AQMP, we believe that the State and SCAQMD 
are capable of fulfilling their aggregate emissions reductions 
commitments.
    For the third and last factor, we consider whether the commitment 
is for a reasonable and appropriate period of time. First, we note 
SCAQMD's commitment is to achieve the specified aggregate emission 
reductions by January 1, 2022 (see Wallerstein Letter), for the purpose 
of providing for attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard by December 
31, 2022, an attainment date that we are proposing to approve herein. 
Second, to meet the aggregate reduction commitment by January 1, 2022, 
SCAQMD is relying on emissions reductions from the SOON program. 
Reductions from the SOON program involve accelerating fleet turnover of 
off-road diesel engines through equipment replacement and engine 
repowers that in turn rely on available funds. The SCAQMD's expectation 
of emissions reductions from the SOON program by January 1, 2022 is 
based on the reasonable assumption of continued funding at current 
levels to achieve similar annual reductions in the emissions as have 
been achieved over the past four years. As such, we find that SCAQMD's 
aggregate emissions reduction commitment is for a reasonable and 
appropriate period of time. CARB's emissions reduction commitment from 
the 2007 AQMP is for year 2020, and so long as the commitment is 
fulfilled by January 1, 2022, it will provide the necessary reductions 
to attain the 1-hour ozone standard in the South Coast by December 31, 
2022. Thus, SCAQMD's new commitment and CARB's existing commitment are 
for a reasonable and appropriate period of time.
d. CAA Section 182(e)(5) New or Improved Technology Measures
    For ozone nonattainment areas classified as extreme, the CAA 
recognizes that an attainment demonstration may need to rely to a 
certain extent on new or evolving technologies (referred to herein as 
``new

[[Page 29722]]

technology'' measures), given the relatively long time between 
developing the initial plan and attaining the standard and the degree 
of emissions reductions needed to attain. To address these needs, CAA 
section 182(e)(5) authorizes EPA to approve provisions in an extreme 
area plan which ``anticipate development of new control techniques or 
improvement of existing control technologies,'' and to approve an 
attainment demonstration based on such provisions, if the State 
demonstrates that: (1) Such provisions are not necessary to achieve the 
incremental emission reductions required during the first 10 years 
after November 15, 1990; and (2) the State has submitted enforceable 
commitments to develop and adopt contingency measures to be implemented 
if the anticipated technologies do not achieve the planned reductions. 
CAA 182(e)(5). The State must submit these contingency measures to EPA 
no later than three years before proposed implementation of these long-
term measures, and the contingency measures must be ``adequate to 
produce emissions reductions sufficient, in conjunction with other 
approved plan provisions, to achieve the periodic emissions reductions 
required by [CAA sections 182(b)(1) or (c)(2)] and attainment by the 
applicable dates.'' Id.
    The General Preamble further provides that the new technology 
measures contemplated by section 182(e)(5) may include those that 
anticipate future technological developments as well as those that 
require complex analyses, decision making and coordination among a 
number of government agencies. See General Preamble at 13524. An 
attainment demonstration that relies on long-term new technology 
measures under section 182(e)(5) must identify any such measures and 
contain a schedule outlining the steps leading to final development and 
adoption of the measures. Id.
    SCAQMD and CARB have demonstrated a clear need for emissions 
reductions from new and improved control technologies to reduce air 
pollution in the South Coast. As shown in table 4, above, baseline 
measures, and enforceable commitments provide the majority, but not 
all, of the emissions reductions needed by 2022 to attain the emissions 
target for 1-hour ozone attainment in the South Coast of 410 tpd of VOC 
and 150 tpd of NOX.
    To cover the difference, which amounts to 17 tpd of VOC and 150 tpd 
of NOX, the 2012 AQMP includes 10 measures to reduce mobile 
source emissions for 1-hour ozone and 1997 8-hour ozone planning 
purposes and seven additional measures to accelerate the development 
and deployment of near-zero and zero-emission technology for goods 
movement related sources and off-road equipment to achieve additional 
emissions reductions over the longer-term for 2008 8-hour ozone 
planning purposes as well. These ``new technology'' measures are 
intended to provide the emissions reductions necessary to attain the 1-
hour ozone standard and also represent the updated ``new technology'' 
provisions for attainment of the 1997 8-hour ozone standard in the 
South Coast. The ``new technology'' measures are identical for both the 
1-hour ozone and 1997 8-hour ozone standards. The differences in the 
new technology provisions between the 1-hour ozone and 1997 8-hour 
ozone attainment demonstrations lie in the extent to which the 
attainment demonstrations rely on such measures, and the timing. The 
emissions reductions that are needed from new technology measures to 
demonstrate attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard in the South Coast 
are 17 tpd of VOC and 150 tpd of NOX by January 1, 2022. The 
corresponding emissions reductions and timing from new technology 
measures for 1997 8-hour ozone attainment purposes is 40 tpd of VOC and 
241 tpd of NOX by January 1, 2023.
    Table 6 below lists the 2012 AQMP's new technology measures along 
with a brief summary of each measure. See 2012 AQMP, appendix IV-B for 
a detailed description of the measures. In support of these measures, 
CARB adopted a commitment to ``develop, adopt, and submit contingency 
measures by 2019 if advanced technology measures do not achieve planned 
reductions as required by section 182(e)(5)(B).'' CARB Resolution 13-3, 
page 9.

      Table 6--SCAQMD and CARB New Technology Measures in 2012 AQMP
------------------------------------------------------------------------
    2012 AQMP measure
       identifier               Title                Description
------------------------------------------------------------------------
ONRD-01.................  Accelerated        This measure continues
                           Penetration of     implementation of CARB's
                           Partial Zero-      Clean Vehicle Rebate
                           Emission and       Project (CVRP) through
                           Zero Emission      2023 with a minimum number
                           Vehicles.          of 1,000 vehicles per year
                                              to be incentivized through
                                              the CVRP, which provides
                                              individual vehicle
                                              incentives of up to
                                              certain amounts (e.g.,
                                              $2,500 for full zero-
                                              emission vehicles) for
                                              clean vehicles.
ONRD-02.................  Accelerated        This measure calls for
                           Retirement of      retirement of, at a
                           Older Light-Duty   minimum, 2,000 light and
                           and Medium Duty    medium-duty vehicles per
                           Vehicles.          year to 2023, and gives
                                              first priority to pre-1992
                                              model year vehicles
                                              identified as high emitter
                                              and that are off-cycle to
                                              California's Smog Check
                                              Program. Incentives are up
                                              to $2,500 per vehicle
                                              which could include a
                                              replacement voucher under
                                              CARB's Enhanced Fleet
                                              Modernization Program.
ONRD-03.................  Accelerated        This measure seeks
                           Penetration of     additional emissions
                           Partial Zero-      reductions through the
                           Emission and       early introduction of
                           Zero Emission      electric hybrid vehicles
                           Light-Heavy- and   and continues the state
                           Medium-Heavy-      hybrid truck and bus
                           Duty Vehicles.     voucher incentive project
                                              (HVIP). Incentives of up
                                              to $25,000 per vehicle are
                                              part of this measure. The
                                              measure's goal is to fund
                                              1,000 hybrid and zero-
                                              emission vehicles each
                                              year to 2023.
ONRD-04.................  Accelerated        This measure seeks
                           Retirement of      additional emissions
                           Older On-Road      reductions from older, pre-
                           Heavy-Duty         2010 heavy-duty vehicles
                           Vehicles.          beyond the emission
                                              reductions targeted in
                                              CARB's Truck and Bus
                                              Regulation. A significant
                                              number of heavy-duty
                                              trucks have been replaced
                                              through Proposition 1B
                                              Goods Movement Emission
                                              Reduction Program funding,
                                              the Carl Moyer Program,
                                              and other local incentives
                                              programs. This measure
                                              continues these programs
                                              through 2023.
ONRD-05.................  Further Emission   This measure calls for CARB
                           Reductions from    to adopt a regulation or
                           Heavy-Duty         other enforceable
                           Vehicles Serving   mechanism to further
                           Near-Dock          reduce emissions from near-
                           Railyards.         dock railyard drayage
                                              trucks. The regulation or
                                              other enforcement
                                              mechanism would require,
                                              by 2020, all containers
                                              transported between the
                                              marine ports and the near-
                                              dock railyards to use zero-
                                              emission technologies.

[[Page 29723]]

 
OFFRD-01................  Extension of the   This measure seeks to
                           SOON Provision     reduce emissions from
                           for Construction/  older, high-emitting off-
                           Industrial         road diesel engines. Under
                           Equipment.         this measure, incentive
                                              programs, such as the Carl
                                              Moyer Program and the SOON
                                              Provision of CARB's Off-
                                              Road rule, would continue
                                              to be used to fund
                                              equipment replacement and
                                              engine repower projects.
                                              This measure would extend
                                              the current SOON program
                                              beyond 2014 to 2023.
OFFRD-02................  Further Emission   This measure carries
                           Reductions from    forward the freight
                           Freight            locomotive new technology
                           Locomotives.       measures from the 2007
                                              AQMP and calls for
                                              replacing existing
                                              locomotive engines with
                                              Tier 4 engines beginning
                                              in 2015 such that by 2023,
                                              there will be at least 95%
                                              Tier 4 locomotives
                                              operating the South Coast.
OFFRD-03................  Further Emission   Metrolink's Board has
                           Reductions from    adopted a locomotive
                           Passenger          replacement plan which
                           Locomotives.       includes the procurement
                                              of Tier 4 locomotive
                                              engines to replace its 30
                                              Tier 0 locomotives over a
                                              three-year period. In
                                              addition, the replacement
                                              plans call for repowering
                                              the existing Tier 2
                                              locomotives to Tier 4
                                              emission levels, resulting
                                              in 100% Tier 4 locomotives
                                              by 2023.
OFFRD-04................  Further Emission   This measure focuses on
                           Reductions from    ocean-going vessels not
                           Ocean-Going        subject to CARB's
                           Marine Vessels     shorepower regulation and
                           While at Berth.    seeks to deploy shorepower
                                              technologies for an
                                              additional 25 percent of
                                              the calls not subject to
                                              CARB's shorepower
                                              regulation.
OFFRD-05................  Emission           This measure calls for
                           Reductions from    incentives to be used to
                           Ocean-Going        maximize the early
                           Marine Vessels.    introduction and
                                              preferential deployment of
                                              vessels to the San Pedro
                                              Bay Ports with cleaner/new
                                              engines meeting the new
                                              Tier 2 and Tier 3 IMO NOX
                                              standards.
ADV-01..................  Actions for the    This measure includes two
                           Deployment of      sets of actions. The first
                           Zero and Near-     set involves the
                           Zero Emission On-  establishment of an
                           Road Heavy-Duty    optional NOX exhaust
                           Vehicles.          emission standard that is
                                              at least 95 percent lower
                                              than the current 2010 on-
                                              road exhaust emissions
                                              standard. The second set
                                              is to develop zero-
                                              emission technologies for
                                              heavy-duty vehicles that
                                              can be deployed in the
                                              2015 to 2035 timeframe.
ADV-02..................  Actions for the    This measure describes
                           Deployment of      actions needed to
                           Zero-Emission      commercialize advanced
                           and Near-Zero      zero-emission and near-
                           Locomotives.       zero emission technologies
                                              for locomotives that could
                                              be deployed in the 2020 to
                                              2030 timeframe.
ADV-03..................  Actions for the    This measure describes
                           Deployment of      actions to demonstrate and
                           Zero-Emission      commercialize advanced
                           and Near-Zero      zero-emission and near-
                           Cargo Handling     zero emission technologies
                           Equipment.         for cargo handling
                                              equipment operated at
                                              marine ports, intermodal
                                              freight facilities, and
                                              warehouse distribution
                                              centers that could be
                                              deployed in the 2020 to
                                              2030 timeframe.
ADV-04..................  Actions for the    This measure describes
                           Deployment of      actions needed to
                           Cleaner            commercialize advanced
                           Commercial         engine control
                           Harbor Craft.      technologies and hybrid
                                              systems for commercial
                                              harbor craft that could be
                                              deployed in the 2020 to
                                              2030 timeframe.
ADV-05..................  Actions for        This measure describes the
                           Deployment of      actions needed to deploy
                           Cleaner Ocean-     retrofit technologies on
                           Going Marine       existing Category 3 marine
                           Vessels.           engines to achieve Tier 3
                                              marine engine emissions
                                              standards.
ADV-06..................  Actions for the    This measure describes the
                           Deployment of      actions needed to
                           Cleaner Off-Road   commercialize advanced
                           Equipment.         zero-emission and near-
                                              zero emission technologies
                                              of off-road equipment that
                                              could be deployed in the
                                              2020 to 2030 timeframe.
ADV-07..................  Actions for the    This measure describes the
                           Deployment of      actions needed to develop,
                           Cleaner Aircraft   demonstrate, and
                           Engines.           commercialize advanced
                                              technologies, procedures,
                                              and sustainable
                                              alternative jet fuels that
                                              could be deployed in the
                                              2020 to 2030 timeframe.
------------------------------------------------------------------------

    We have evaluated the reliance on the new technology provision of 
section 182(e)(5) in the 2012 AQMP and have found it to be acceptable. 
First, the SIP call to which the 2012 AQMP responds is for an 
attainment demonstration plan for an area classified as ``extreme'' for 
the 1-hour ozone standard. As such, the attainment demonstration can 
rely on the new technology provision under CAA section 182(e)(5) if 
attainment cannot be demonstrated through implementation of RACM and 
enforceable commitments and if the specific criteria and requirements 
of section 182(e)(5) are met. As noted above, attainment by meeting the 
emissions targets for the 1-hour ozone standard in the South Coast (410 
tpd of VOC and 150 tpd of NOX) cannot be met through RACM 
and enforceable commitments. Second, with respect to the specific 
criteria and requirements, we find the 2012 AQMP's reliance on new 
technologies to be acceptable because:
     The 2012 AQMP relies on new technology measures for 
reductions from a base year of 2008 to an attainment year of 2022, a 
period of 14 years, and thus does not rely on new technologies to 
achieve incremental emission reductions required during the first 10 
years of the plan; and
     CARB has submitted an enforceable commitment to develop, 
adopt, and submit contingency measures by 2019 \26\ (three years before 
the 1-hour ozone attainment year) to be implemented if the anticipated 
technologies do not achieve the planned reductions.\27\

    \26\ We interpret CARB's contingency measure commitment to be 
for January 1, 2019 based on the statutory requirement for such 
measures to be submitted (``no later than 3 years before proposed 
implementation of the [advanced control technologies measures]''), 
CAA section 182(e)(5), and the implementation date for 
implementation of the advanced control technologies measures in the 
2012 AQMP by January 1, 2022.
    \27\ We also note that the State has committed to meet annually 
with EPA and to provide annual updates on the status of the 
182(e)(5) commitments. See letter from James Goldstene, Executive 
Officer, CARB to Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA 
Region 9, dated August 29, 2011 and letter from Richard Corey, 
Executive Officer, CARB to Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, 
EPA Region 9, dated March 6, 2014.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

In addition, we note the progress to date that has been made toward 
implementing the new technology measures. For example, CARB reports 
that, in January 2012, CARB adopted the Advanced Clean Cars Program, 
which combines the control of smog, soot causing pollutants and 
greenhouse gas emissions into a single coordinated

[[Page 29724]]

package of requirements for model years 2015 through 2025. In 2013, the 
California Legislature extended to 2023 two successful incentive 
programs, the Carl Moyer Program and the Air Quality Improvement 
Program, that otherwise would have sunset in 2014 and 2015, and 
provided nearly $65 million in additional funds. In December 2013, CARB 
adopted the new optional low-NOX standards for on-road 
heavy-duty engines that are one of the actions called for in the 2012 
AQMP's new technology measure ADV-01, listed above in table 6.
    Thus, based on the above discussion and evaluation, we find that 
the reliance on new technology measures as part of the attainment 
demonstration for the 1-hour ozone standard in the 2012 AQMP satisfies 
the requirements of CAA section 182(e)(5). As such, we are proposing to 
approve the new technology measures summarized in table 6 and further 
described in the 2012 AQMP, appendix IV-B, for 1-hour ozone attainment 
demonstration purposes and as an update to the new technology provision 
in the 2007 AQMP for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard.
3. Applicable Attainment Date
    As noted previously, in our final SIP call, we indicated that the 
applicable attainment date for the 1-hour ozone standard in the South 
Coast is as expeditiously as practicable, but no later than 5 years 
from the effective date of the final SIP call (i.e., February 6, 2018) 
but that EPA is authorized to extend the applicable attainment date for 
a period no greater than 10 years from the effective date of the SIP 
call (i.e., February 6, 2023) if appropriate given the severity of 
nonattainment and the availability and feasibility of pollution control 
measures.
    The 2012 AQMP demonstrates attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard 
by December 31, 2022. To evaluate whether to approve an attainment date 
of December 31, 2022 for the 1-hour ozone standard in the South Coast, 
we reviewed the severity of nonattainment and the availability and 
feasibility of pollution control measures.
    First, despite significant progress over the years, for urban areas 
nationwide, the South Coast nonattainment area has both the highest 1-
hour ozone design value concentration and the highest annual maximum 
ozone concentrations in the United States. For instance, while the 1-
hour design value has decreased from over 0.30 ppm in 1990 to less than 
0.15 ppm in 2011 (see figure VII-2-2 in appendix VII of the 2012 AQMP), 
maximum ozone concentrations still are significantly higher than other 
metropolitan areas of the United States (see figures VII-2-3 and VII-2-
4 in appendix VII) and remain over 20% higher than the standard. The 1-
hour ozone problem in the South Coast is complex, the design value 
monitor has shifted over time, and the problem is compounded by the 
topographical and meteorological conditions for the area that are very 
conducive to the formation and concentration of ozone. 2012 AQMP, 
appendix VII, section 5.
    As discussed in the section of this document on control strategies 
and RACM, the South Coast nonattainment area needs significant 
reductions in VOC and NOX to demonstrate attainment, on the 
order of 31 percent for VOC and 80 percent for NOX from 2008 
base year emissions. EPA believes that further reduction of these 
pollutants is challenging, because the State and local air pollution 
regulations already in place include most of the readily available VOC 
and NOX control measures. Moreover, attainment in the South 
Coast nonattainment area must also mitigate the emissions increases 
associated with the projected increases in population and emissions 
levels for this high growth area.
    The SCAQMD has a long history of adopting new measures and revising 
existing measures that provide emissions reductions of VOC and to a 
lesser extent, NOX. These measures provide ongoing 
reductions that contribute towards attainment of the 1-hour ozone 
standard. The SCAQMD's VOC reductions are achieved primarily from rules 
governing the petroleum industry, as well as consumer products rules at 
both the State and local level. These types of control measures present 
special implementation challenges (e.g., the large number of 
individuals subject to regulation and the difficulty of applying 
conventional technological control solutions). NOX 
reductions come largely from SCAQMD rules for fuel combustion sources, 
NOX RECLAIM, and from CARB's mobile source rules.
    As provided above, EPA agrees that the implementation schedule for 
enhanced stationary source controls is expeditious, taking into account 
the time necessary for purchase and installation of the required 
control technologies. We believe that it is not feasible at this time 
to accelerate the emission reduction schedule for the state and federal 
mobile source requirements, which set aggressive compliance dates for 
new emission standards and which must rely on fleet turnover over the 
years to deliver the ultimate emission reductions. In addition, the 
State has adopted standards for many categories of on-road and off-road 
vehicles and engines, and gasoline and diesel fuels, and is relying on 
existing, approved commitments to continue developing rules for Smog 
Check Improvements, Expanded Passenger Vehicle Retirement Program, 
Cleaner Main Ship Engines and Fuel, Cleaner Line-Haul Locomotives, and 
Off-Road Recreational Vehicle Equipment. EPA believes that the SCAQMD 
and CARB are implementing these rules and programs as expeditiously as 
practicable. EPA also expects that SCAQMD and CARB will continue to 
investigate opportunities to accelerate progress as new control 
opportunities arise, and that the agencies will promptly adopt and 
expeditiously implement any new measures found to be feasible in the 
future. For these reasons and also the need to conduct significant 
public outreach if applicable control approaches are to be effective, 
EPA agrees with the SCAQMD and CARB that a December 31, 2022 attainment 
date for the South Coast for the 1-hour ozone standard is as 
expeditious as practicable.
4. Air Quality Modeling for the South Coast 2012 1-Hour Ozone 
Attainment Demonstration
    In this section of the document, we discuss the applicable 
statutory and regulatory requirements for modeled attainment 
demonstrations, EPA guidance on air quality modeling for ozone 
standards, the air quality modeling analysis supporting the attainment 
demonstration in the State's submittal, and our evaluation of these 
modeling analyses as part of the attainment demonstration SIP.
a. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for 1-Hour Ozone Air Quality 
Modeling and EPA Guidance
    For any ozone nonattainment area classified as serious or above, 
section 182(c)(2)(A) of the CAA specifically requires the State to 
submit a modeled attainment demonstration based on a photochemical grid 
modeling evaluation or any other analytical method determined by the 
Administrator to be at least as effective as photochemical modeling. In 
addition, 40 CFR section 51.112 requires that attainment must be 
demonstrated using applicable air quality models, data bases, and other 
requirements specified in Appendix W to 40 CFR part 51, as interpreted 
in EPA guidance. See, e.g., Guideline for Regulatory Application of the 
Urban Airshed Model, EPA-450/4-91-013 (July 1991); ``Guidance on Use of 
Modeled Results to Demonstrate Attainment of the Ozone NAAQS,''

[[Page 29725]]

EPA-454/B-95-007 (June 1996); ``Guidance for the 1-hour Ozone 
Nonattainment Areas that Rely on Weight-of-Evidence for Attainment 
Demonstrations, Mid-Course Review Guidance'' (March 28, 2002); 
``Guidance for Improving Weight-of-Evidence Through Identification of 
Additional Emission Reduction Not Modeled (Nov 1999); ``Guidance on the 
Use of Models and Other Analyses for Air Quality Goals in Attainment 
Demonstrations for Ozone, PM2.5, and Regional Haze,'' April 
2007. These guidance documents describe the criteria that an air 
quality model and its application should meet to qualify for use in an 
ozone attainment demonstration. For more detail on EPA's evaluation of 
the modeling in the South Coast 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration, 
see the ``Modeling and Other Analyses Attainment Demonstration'' 
memorandum in the docket for today's proposal.\28\ The modeling 
document in the docket also includes a complete list of applicable 
modeling guidance documents. These documents describe the components of 
the attainment demonstration, explain how the modeling and other 
analyses should be conducted, and provide overall guidance on the 
technical analyses for attainment demonstrations.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \28\ Memorandum to Docket EPA-R09-OAR-2014-0185 from Carol 
Bohnenkamp, Air Quality Analysis Office, EPA Region 9, ``Review of 
the Modeling for the Attainment Demonstration for the Proposed 
Rulemaking Action on the South Coast 2012 AQMP for the One Hour 
Ozone Standard'', dated May 1, 2014.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As with any predictive tool, inherent uncertainties are associated 
with photochemical grid modeling. EPA's guidance recognizes these 
limitations and provides recommended approaches for considering other 
analytical evidence to help assess whether attainment of the NAAQS is 
likely. This process is called a weight of evidence (WOE) analysis. 
EPA's modeling guidance (updated in 1996, 1999, and 2002) discusses 
various WOE analyses. This guidance recommends that all attainment 
demonstrations include supplemental analyses beyond the recommended 
modeling. These supplemental analyses provide additional information 
such as data analyses, and emissions and air quality trends, which 
would help strengthen the conclusion based on the photochemical grid 
modeling.
b. 1-Hour Attainment Demonstration Modeling and Weight of Evidence
i. Modeling Approaches for the SCAQMD Attainment Demonstration
    a. Photochemical Grid Model. The model selected for the 20121-hour 
ozone attainment demonstration was developed using the U.S. EPA 
supported Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) (version 4.7) air 
quality modeling platform with Statewide Air Pollution Research Center-
99 (SAPRC99) chemistry, and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) 
model (version 3.3) meteorological fields. The modeling system 
(including the photochemical model, meteorological inputs, and chemical 
mechanism) is consistent with the previous advice of outside peer 
reviewers. CMAQ is a state-of-the-art air quality model that can 
simulate ozone and PM2.5 concentrations together in a ``one-
atmosphere'' approach for attainment demonstrations.
    b. Episode Selection. The attainment demonstration modeling focuses 
on 92 days of ozone air quality observed during June through August of 
the base year 2008. Overall, the 92 day period provides a robust 
description of the 2008 ozone meteorological season. During this 
period, seven well defined multi-day ozone episodes occurred in the 
Basin with 16 days having daily 1-hour maximum ozone concentrations of 
125 ppb or higher at the site with the maximum number of exceedances. 
When assessed for a normalized meteorological ozone episode potential 
using a regression based weighting covering 30 years of data (1998-
2010), the June 18-22, 2008 period was ranked in the 99th percentile. 
This episode contained the top four daily ozone maximum concentrations 
for 2008 in the South Coast and was selected as the focus of the 
attainment demonstration.
    c. Model Performance. Model performance was evaluated in three 
zones in the South Coast Basin: The San Fernando Valley; the eastern 
San Gabriel, Riverside and San Bernardino Valleys; and Los Angeles and 
Orange County. Normalized Gross Bias, Normalized Gross Error, and Peak 
Prediction Accuracy were determined for each area. Although not a 
requirement for determining acceptable model performance, the 
performance statistics were compared to the EPA performance goals 
presented in guidance documents. The performance goals for Normalized 
Gross Error and Peak Prediction Accuracy were met in the eastern San 
Gabriel, Riverside and San Bernardino Valleys. The statistic for bias 
(Normalized Gross Bias) tends to be negative, indicating that the model 
tends to slightly under-predict ozone. Both June 18th and June 20th 
failed to meet the model acceptance criteria for the unpaired peak 
analysis. As a result, the attainment demonstration focused on June 
19th and 21st, days with observed peak concentrations that closely 
matched the design values. Based on their analysis, SCAQMD concludes 
and EPA agrees that model performance is acceptable for this 
application.
ii. Results of SCAQMD Modeling
    Photochemical model simulations were conducted for the base year 
2008 emissions and future-year 2022 baseline and controlled emissions. 
The 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration was based on the 
deterministic approach outlined in the ``Guidance on Use of Modeled 
Results to Demonstrate Attainment of the Ozone NAAQS,'' EPA-454/B-95-
007 (June 1996). In addition, the weight of evidence analysis uses the 
model in a relative sense, using the relative response factor (RRF) 
technique described in the ``Guidance on the Use of Models and Other 
Analyses for Air Quality Goals in Attainment Demonstrations for Ozone, 
PM2.5, and Regional Haze,'' April 2007.
    a. Modeled Attainment. The model predicted a maximum 1-hour ozone 
concentration for 2022 of 125 parts per billion (ppb) on June 19th at 
the Pasadena monitor.\29\ All other predicted concentrations during the 
five-day episode are projected to be below 124 ppb. The results of the 
attainment demonstration for 2022 indicate that, allowing for one day 
per year above the standard, the 1-hour ozone standard would be 
attained by 2022 at all monitors with the controlled emissions 
inventory. The attainment targets (410 tpd VOC and 150 tpd 
NOX) are based on both short-term and long-term (i.e., new 
technology) measures. With the related emissions reductions in place, 
it is expected that all stations in the South Coast ozone nonattainment 
area will meet the 1-hour ozone standard during the 2022 ozone season.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \29\ The national 1-hour ozone standard is 0.12 ppm. Values of 
124 ppb or less are not considered exceedances of the standard.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    b. Weight of Evidence Analysis. The weight of evidence analysis for 
the ozone attainment demonstration relies on the use of site-specific 
RRFs being applied to the 2008 weighted design values. The RRFs are 
determined from the future year controlled and the 2008 base year 
simulations. The results of the RRF analysis supports the deterministic 
attainment demonstration and the level of emission reductions needed 
for attainment. The selection criteria for the episode days and the 
process of applying the RRFs to the CAMX modeling are discussed in more 
detail in the modeling document in the docket for today's action.

[[Page 29726]]

c. EPA's Evaluation of the Modeling Demonstration
    Our evaluation of the air quality modeling analyses and supporting 
information provided in the South Coast 2012 1-hour ozone attainment 
demonstration indicate that the South Coast area will attain the 1-hour 
ozone standard by its December 31, 2022. In addition to the attainment 
demonstration provided in the South Coast 2012 1-hour ozone attainment 
demonstration, we have considered supplemental technical information, 
including ambient air quality monitoring data, which was not available 
at the time the attainment modeling was performed by SCAQMD. This 
information is discussed in more detail in the ``Review of the Modeling 
for the Attainment Demonstration for the Proposed Rulemaking Action on 
the South Coast 2012 AQMP for the One Hour Ozone Standard'' memorandum 
in the docket. The most recent ambient air quality data that we have 
reviewed indicate that the area is on track to attain the 1-hour ozone 
standard by December 31, 2022. The 1-hour ozone design value has 
decreased from 23.4 expected exceedance days in 2000-2002 (average each 
year) to 5.5 expected exceedance days in 2010-2012. The peak 1-hour 
concentration has decreased from 0.169 ppm in 2002 to 0.147 ppm in 
2012.
    Based on the analysis above and in the technical memorandum in the 
docket, EPA proposes to find that the air quality modeling provides an 
adequate basis for the 1-hour ozone attainment demonstration in the 
2012 AQMP.

III. Proposed Action and Request for Public Comment

    For the reasons discussed above, under section 110(k) of the CAA, 
the EPA is proposing to approve certain ozone-related portions of the 
2012 South Coast AQMP as a revision to the California SIP. The relevant 
portions of the 2012 AQMP that are proposed for approval include the 
updated control strategy for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard and the 
demonstration of attainment of the 1-hour ozone standard in the South 
Coast by December 31, 2022. In so doing, we are proposing to approve 
the following commitments or measures upon which the 1-hour ozone 
attainment demonstration relies and that support update the approved 
control strategy for the 1997 8-hour ozone standard:
     SCAQMD's commitments to develop, adopt, submit and 
implement the measures as listed in table 5, above, subject to findings 
of infeasibility and measure substitution, and a commitment to meet 
aggregate emissions reductions targets of 5.8 tpd of VOC and 10.7 tpd 
of NOX by January 1, 2022;
     The new technology measures listed in table 6, above to 
achieve emissions reductions of 17 tpd of VOC and 150 tpd of 
NOX; in the South Coast by January 1, 2022; and
     CARB's commitment to submit contingency measures by 
January 1, 2019 as necessary to ensure that the emissions reductions 
from new technology measures are achieved.
    In proposing approval, EPA finds that an attainment date of 
December 31, 2022 is appropriate in light of the severity of the 1-hour 
ozone problem in the South Coast and given the extent to which 
emissions sources in the South Coast have already been controlled and 
the difficulty of developing regulations and controlling additional 
emissions. EPA also finds that the South Coast 1-hour ozone attainment 
demonstration is based on reasonable estimates and forecasts of ozone 
precursor emissions and appropriate photochemical modeling techniques 
and assumptions and an acceptable control strategy.
    We are taking public comments for thirty days following the 
publication of this proposed rule in the Federal Register. We will take 
all comments into consideration in our final rule.

IV. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

    Under the CAA, the Administrator is required to approve a SIP 
submittal that complies with the provisions of the Actand applicable 
Federal regulations. 42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 52.02(a). Thus, in 
reviewing SIP submissions, EPA's role is to approve state choices, 
provided that they meet the criteria of the CAA. Accordingly, this 
proposed action merely approves a state plan as meeting Federal 
requirements and does not impose additional requirements beyond those 
imposed by state law. For that reason, this proposed action:
     Is not a ``significant regulatory action'' subject to 
review by the Office of Management and Budget under Executive Order 
12866 (58 FR 51735, October 4, 1993);
     Does not impose an information collection burden under the 
provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act (44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq.);
     Is certified as not having a significant economic impact 
on a substantial number of small entities under the Regulatory 
Flexibility Act (5 U.S.C. 601 et seq.);
     Does not contain any unfunded mandate or significantly or 
uniquely affect small governments, as described in the Unfunded 
Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (Pub. L. 104-4);
     Does not have Federalism implications as specified in 
Executive Order 13132 (64 FR 43255, October 7, 1999);
     Is not an economically significant regulatory action based 
on health or safety risks subject to Executive Order 13045 (62 FR 
19885, April 23, 1997);
     Is not a significant regulatory action subject to 
Executive Order 13211 (66 FR 28355, May 22, 2001);
     Is not subject to requirements of Section 12(d) of the 
National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act of 1995 (15 U.S.C. 272 
note) because application of those requirements would be inconsistent 
with the CAA; and
     Does not provide EPA with the discretionary authority to 
address, as appropriate, disproportionate human health or environmental 
effects, using practicable and legally permissible methods, under 
Executive Order 12898 (59 FR 7629, February 16, 1994).

In addition, this proposed rule does not have tribal implications as 
specified by Executive Order 13175 (65 FR 67249, November 9, 2000), 
because the SIP is not approved to apply in Indian country located in 
the State, and EPA notes that it will not impose substantial direct 
costs on tribal governments or preempt tribal law.

List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52

    Environmental protection, Air pollution control, Incorporation by 
reference, Intergovernmental relations, Nitrogen oxides, Ozone, 
Reporting and recordkeeping requirements, Volatile organic compounds.

    Authority: 42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.

    Dated: May 5, 2014.
Jared Blumenfeld,
Regional Administrator,EPA Region IX.
[FR Doc. 2014-11510 Filed 5-22-14; 8:45 am]
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