[Federal Register Volume 79, Number 95 (Friday, May 16, 2014)]
[Notices]
[Pages 28556-28557]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2014-11286]


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DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

Bureau of Labor Statistics


Comment Request

AGENCY: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Department of Labor.

ACTION: Notice for solicitation of comments.

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SUMMARY: The Bureau of Labor Statistics is seeking comments on the 
proposed new method for projecting occupational separations. An 
experimental dataset comparing results from the current and alternate 
method, along with a description of the new method, is ready for users 
to review and provide feedback.

DATES: Written comments must be submitted to the office listed in the 
ADDRESSES section of this notice on or before July 15, 2014.

ADDRESSES: Send comments to Michael Wolf, Division of Occupational 
Employment Projections, Office of Employment and Unemployment 
Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Room 2135, 2 Massachusetts 
Avenue NE., Washington, DC 20212 or by email to: [email protected].

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Michael Wolf, Office of Employment and 
Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, telephone number 
202-691-5714 (this is not a toll-free number), or by email to: 
[email protected].

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

I. Backgound

    The Department of Labor through the Bureau of Labor Statistics 
(BLS) is responsible for the development and publication of 
occupational employment projections and related career information. One 
element of the projections is estimates of job openings due to growth 
and replacement needs. Replacement needs measure openings that result 
from workers leaving an occupation for reasons such as retirement or 
career changes. BLS has developed a new method for measuring openings 
that estimates occupational separations. An experimental dataset 
comparing results from the current and alternate method, along with a 
description of the new method, is ready for users to provide feedback.

II. New Method

    The new method uses historical data to measure two types of workers 
who separate from their current occupation. Workers who leave their 
current occupation and find employment in a different occupation 
(occupational transfers) are measured using the Current Population 
Survey (CPS) Annual Social and Economic Supplement (ASEC), while 
workers who leave the labor force entirely (labor force exits) are 
measured using matched monthly data from the CPS. This historical data 
is used in a probit model to estimate the effects of various 
demographic characteristics, then the results of the model are applied 
to the current demographics of an occupation to estimate future 
occupational separations. A more detailed description of the 
methodology is available here: http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_separations_methods.htm. The new method is conceptually similar to the current 
method, with the following key distinctions:
     The new method measures separations, while the current 
method measures replacements. Replacements are equal to separations for 
growing occupations, but not for declining occupations. The current 
method adjusts for declining occupations within the calculation, while 
the new method adjusts after calculation using the BLS occupational 
employment projections.
     The new method measures two distinct sources of 
separations, separations that result from workers transferring to a 
different occupation, and separations that result from workers exiting 
the labor force altogether, and reports them both separately and as a 
combined measure. The current method provides just one measure for all 
replacements.
     Both the current method and the new method estimate 
replacements or separations due to workers permanently leaving an 
occupation. The current method does this by excluding separations from 
workers in the same age cohort as workers who enter the occupation. The 
new method does this by only measuring separations from workers who 
transfer to a different major occupational group, or who exit the labor 
force for at least 4 months.
    Additional information on why BLS is proposing this alternate 
methodology is available here: http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_separations_change.htm.

III. Terminology

    BLS also proposes using new terminology for this data. As noted 
above, the new methodology measures separations, while the current 
methodology measures replacements, so BLS would replace the data series 
descriptor `Replacement Needs' with `Occupational Separations' and the 
data series descriptor `Replacement Rates' with `Occupational 
Separation Rates'. In addition, the current data series descriptor `Job 
Openings due to Growth and Replacement Needs' is similar in form, but 
conceptually different from another BLS data source, the Job Openings 
and Labor Turnover Survey. BLS proposes to rename this data series 
`Openings due to Employment Change and Occupational Separations'.

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          Current terminology                Proposed new terminology
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Replacement Needs......................  Occupational Separations.
Replacement Rates......................  Occupational Separation Rate.

[[Page 28557]]

 
Job Openings due to Growth and           Openings due to Employment
 Replacement Needs.                       Change and Occupational
                                          Separations.
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IV. Experimental Data

    BLS calculated 2012-22 replacement and separation rates using both 
methodologies to allow comparison of results. The experimental dataset 
includes the published 2012-22 replacement rates for 818 occupations as 
released by the BLS on December 19, 2013, along with the equivalent 
2012-22 rates using the new method. Because of the differences between 
separations and replacements, rates for declining occupations are not 
directly comparable; titles for these occupations have been highlighted 
in red. For many occupations, particularly lower-skilled occupations 
that tend to have high turnover, the new method yields a higher rate 
than the current method, although for some occupations, the rates are 
comparable. The experimental dataset can be accessed from http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_separations_data.xlsx.

V. Desired Focus of Comments

    Comments and recommendations are requested from the public on the 
following aspects of the proposed methodology:
     The ability of results using the new method to meet the 
needs of customers
     The clarity of what is being measured with the new 
methodology
     The clarity of the terminology used with the new 
methodology

    Signed at Washington, DC, this 12th day of May 2014.
Eric P. Molina,
Acting Chief, Division of Management Systems, Bureau of Labor 
Statistics.
[FR Doc. 2014-11286 Filed 5-15-14; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 4510-24-P