[Federal Register Volume 79, Number 15 (Thursday, January 23, 2014)]
[Notices]
[Pages 3783-3785]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2014-01239]


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DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration

RIN 0648-XC958


Domestic Fisheries; Management Strategy Evaluation for Sacramento 
River Winter Chinook Salmon

AGENCY: National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS), National Oceanic and 
Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Commerce.

ACTION: Notice of availability of a Management Strategy Evaluation; 
request for comments.

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SUMMARY: The Pacific Fishery Management Council (Council) has requested 
that the National Marine Fisheries Service (NMFS) take into 
consideration alternative harvest control rules for Sacramento River 
winter Chinook salmon (winter-run), a species listed as endangered 
under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and impacted by ocean salmon 
fisheries that the Council and NMFS manage. The Council is concerned 
that the existing control rule may be unnecessarily restrictive in 
years of low winter-run abundance, particularly when the 3-year average 
escapement drops below 500 fish. The current control rule specifies 
zero fishery impacts at this level of abundance rather than the de 
minimis impacts that are allowed under fishery control rules that limit 
impacts on other ESA listed species. The Council has expressed interest 
in exploring alternatives that would provide some limited harvest 
opportunity on other Chinook salmon stocks when winter-run abundance is 
low, without significantly increasing the risk to winter-run. To help 
facilitate consideration of such alternatives, NMFS is requesting 
public comment on alternative harvest control rules analyzed in a 
Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) for winter-run. These alternative 
harvest control rules include the current control rule implemented by 
NMFS on May 1, 2012, as part of the ESA consultation standard on the 
ocean salmon fishery and additional control rules that reduce the 
impact rate at low abundance.

DATES: Information and comments on the alternative control rules 
described in this notice must be received at the appropriate address 
(see ADDRESSES), no later than 5:00 p.m., on April 23, 2014. We 
encourage the public's involvement in selecting and providing rationale 
for a preferred control rule that may be taken into consideration 
during the annual salmon management process.

ADDRESSES: You may submit comments on this document, identified by 
NOAA-NMFS-2013-0154, by any of the following methods:
     Electronic Submissions: Submit all electronic public 
comments via the Federal e-Rulemaking Portal. Go to 
www.regulations.gov/#!docketDetail;D=NOAA-NMFS-2013-0154, click the 
``Comment Now!'' icon, complete the required fields, and enter or 
attach your comments.
     Mail: Submit written comments to Heidi Taylor, NMFS, 501 
W. Ocean Blvd., Suite 4200, Long Beach, CA 90802. Include the 
identifier ``NOAA-NMFS-2013-0154'' in the comments.
    Instructions: Comments sent by any other method, to any other 
address or individual, or received after the end of the comment period, 
may not be considered by NMFS. All comments received are a part of the 
public record and will generally be posted for public viewing on http://www.regulations.gov without change. All personal identifying 
information (e.g., name, address, etc.), confidential business 
information, or otherwise sensitive information submitted voluntarily 
by the sender will be publicly accessible. NMFS will accept anonymous 
comments (enter ``N/A'' in the required fields if you wish to remain 
anonymous). Attachments to electronic comments will be accepted in 
Microsoft Word, Excel, or Adobe PDF file formats only.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Heidi Taylor, NMFS WCR, 562-980-4039.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:

Background

    Sacramento River winter Chinook salmon were first listed as 
threatened under the Endangered Species Act in 1989 (54 FR 32085) and 
their status was changed to endangered in 1994 (59 FR 440). Under 
section 7 of the Endangered Species Act, NMFS consulted with itself on 
the effects of the federally-managed ocean salmon fishery on the 
winter-run stock and, in April 2010, completed the Biological Opinion 
on the Authorization of Ocean Salmon Fisheries Pursuant to the Pacific 
Coast Salmon Fishery Management Plan (Salmon FMP) and Additional 
Protective Measures as it affects the Sacramento River Winter Chinook 
Salmon (winter-run) Evolutionary Significant Unit (ESU) (NMFS 2010) 
(2010 Opinion). In the 2010 Opinion, NMFS found that, given the current 
management structure of the fishery and the measures in place to 
protect winter-run, it was expected that adult spawning returns of 
winter-run cohorts would be reduced 10 to 25 percent as a result of 
impacts associated with incidental harvest in the ocean salmon fishery. 
These impacts occur primarily as a result of removal of age-3 winter-
run, almost exclusively south of Point Arena, CA, when fishing activity 
is permitted in those areas, and in conjunction with the seasonal and 
size restrictions previously adopted to minimize impacts to winter-run 
consistent with the proposed action for ocean salmon fisheries 
management under the salmon FMP (NMFS 2010). The results from the 
O'Farrell et al. (2012a) cohort reconstruction indicate that the 
majority of these impacts were associated with the recreational salmon 
fishery in this area. The analysis also indicates that the ocean 
fishery spawner reduction rate \1\ has averaged 20 percent in years 
when ocean salmon fisheries south of point Arena occur (O'Farrell et 
al., 2012a), regardless of the spawning abundance of winter-run.
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    \1\ The spawner reduction rate is defined as the reduction in a 
cohort's ``potential adult spawning escapement owing to ocean 
fisheries, relative to its escapement potential in the absence of 
ocean fishing'' (O'Farrell et al. 2012).
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    Over the last decade, this winter-run population (and consequently 
the entire ESU) has had years of positive growth (cohort replacement 
rates greater than 1.0) while sustaining ocean fishery impacts. The 
population increased to as many as 17,000 spawners in 2006. Therefore, 
NMFS concluded that the anticipated impacts of the fishery, based on 
past performance of both the fishery

[[Page 3784]]

and the winter-run population, were not expected to reduce the 
likelihood of survival and recovery of the species during periods when 
the winter-run population is stable or increasing. To a large degree, 
the consultation standards and management measures described in the 
2010 Opinion, which were designed to protect winter-run specifically as 
well as address other stocks of Chinook salmon, have served to reduce 
fishery impacts on the winter-run Chinook salmon population to a level 
that is consistent with an expectation of survival and recovery for the 
species.
    However, NMFS identified that the proposed action analyzed in the 
2010 Opinion did not include measures that would avoid or constrain the 
fishery's impacts on winter-run during periods of decline or increased 
extinction risk. Without any explicit means to further constrain 
impacts after consideration of winter-run abundance in the fishery 
management process, the potential exists for total spawner reduction 
rates associated with the ocean salmon fishery to approach, or exceed, 
25 percent during periods of time when risks of extinction are 
significantly increased. Therefore, NMFS concluded that the proposed 
operation of the fishery without consideration of additional protective 
measures that would be implemented when winter-run are at low abundance 
was not sufficient to ensure that the fishery was not likely to 
appreciably reduce the likelihood of survival and recovery of winter-
run.

Reasonable and Prudent Alternative (RPA)

    The ESA requires that, where NMFS concludes through consultation 
that a proposed action is likely to jeopardize the continued existence 
of a listed species, NMFS identify one or more RPAs to such action. By 
regulation, an RPA is defined as ``alternative actions identified 
during formal consultation that can be implemented in a manner 
consistent with the intended purpose of the action, that can be 
implemented consistent with the scope of the Federal agency's legal 
authority and jurisdiction, that is economically and technologically 
feasible, and that the Director [NMFS] believes would avoid the 
likelihood of jeopardizing the continued existence of listed species or 
resulting in the destruction or adverse modification of critical 
habitat'' (50 CFR 402.02).
    NMFS' approach when developing the RPA in the 2010 Opinion was to 
address the foundation of the jeopardy conclusion, which is the lack of 
explicit controls in the ocean salmon fishery management process to 
constrain and reduce impacts when the abundance of winter-run is 
depressed and the extinction risk is increased. Specifically, the 
purpose of the RPA was to establish a long-term management framework 
that accounts each year for the abundance of winter-run and specifies a 
level of fishery impact that is responsive to that abundance and 
consistent with the requirement to avoid jeopardy. However, at the time 
of the 2010 Opinion, the information and analyses required to establish 
specific management objectives or acceptable impact targets given 
various conditions, and the tools needed to incorporate those criteria 
into the fishery management process were not available. Additional 
analytical effort was required before this framework could be developed 
and implemented. Therefore, the RPA required NMFS to develop a winter-
run management framework that (1) meets the objective of the RPA, (2) 
is practical given the ocean salmon fishery management process as 
described in the Salmon FMP, and (3) that the framework be available 
for consideration in time for implementation as the consultation 
standard for the ocean salmon fishery for winter-run for the 2012 
fishing season.
    For the interim between issuance of the 2010 Opinion and 
implementation of the new framework, NMFS determined that the winter-
run population had been in significant decline since 2006, and 
concluded that conservative management measures should be taken and 
fishery impacts reduced pending completion of the new management 
framework. The 2010 Opinion provided options to the Council and NMFS to 
either increase size limits or reduce fishing effort (seasonal 
closures) in the recreational fishery in 2010 and 2011 to produce a 
qualitative constraint and reduction in winter-run impacts (see NMFS 
2010 for explanation of interim RPA rationale).

Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE)

    In order to develop the management framework required by the 2010 
RPA, the NMFS Southwest Fisheries Science Center Salmon Assessment Team 
(Team) engaged in an effort to develop the analytical tools required to 
evaluate various fishery exploitation control rule alternatives in a 
formal Management Strategy Evaluation (MSE) process. The term 
``Management Strategy Evaluation'' is being used to represent all 
aspects of the analytical work developed to support the decision-making 
process. The purpose of the MSE was to simulate winter-run population 
dynamics as well as monitoring, assessment, and implementation of the 
fishery management system under a variety of prospective fishery 
management control rules. The control rules specify the allowable level 
of incidental take of winter-run (age-3 impact rate south of Point 
Arena, CA) for ocean fisheries in a given year. For example, a control 
rule which allows a fixed annual fishing impact rate could be simulated 
and compared to other control rules that specify reduced allowable 
impact rates when population abundance is low. The goal of this 
simulation work was to evaluate the relative performance of various 
control rules in terms of conservation and fishery criteria.
    In order to perform the simulations, the Team developed a model for 
winter-run such that the prescribed fishing impact rate under a control 
rule could be directly input as a source of mortality (with its 
attendant uncertainty). This mortality affected spawning abundance, 
leading directly to the generation of the next cohort, and on 
throughout the population simulation (Winship et al. 2012). The MSE 
evaluated three control rules with constant age-3 fishery impact rate 
target scenarios representing: no impact (0 percent), estimated 
historical fishery impact rate (25 percent), and current era fishery 
impact rate (20 percent). The MSE also considered other variations of 
control rules with decreasing age-3 fishery impact rates at decreasing 
population abundance levels (Winship et al., 2012). These are described 
in the paragraph titled ``Public Comment and Availability of the 
winter-run Management Strategy Evaluation'' below. The performance of 
alternative control rules was compared in terms of established 
population performance criteria and the implications for ocean 
fisheries. A paper consistent with the Winship et al. (2012) report 
describing the winter-run MSE was subsequently published (Winship et 
al., 2013).

Public Comment and Availability of the Winter-Run Management Strategy 
Evaluation

    NMFS seeks input from the public on the control rules analyzed in 
the MSE as described in Winship et al. 2012 (``the MSE report''), 
particularly on whether commenters prefer one of those control rules 
over the others, and the reasons for such preference. The comment 
period will conclude at 5:00 p.m. on April 23, 2014, NMFS will consider 
all comments received by the end of the comment period as we move 
forward to consider potential changes to the management approach. The 
MSE report (Winship et al., 2012) is available at the following

[[Page 3785]]

Web site http://www.pcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/SRWC_MSE_2012_02_28.pdf and by mail upon request. NMFS is specifically interested in 
comments and information regarding a preferred control rule analyzed in 
the MSE for ocean salmon fisheries south of Point Arena that is 
responsive to the abundance of the species. The control rules are 
described in the MSE report as ``management strategies'' and are as 
follows: management strategy 1 allowed for a zero age-3 impact rate, 
management strategy 2 used a historical impact rate of 25 percent, 
management strategy 3 used the current era impact rate of 20 percent, 
and management strategies 4 through 6 required a reduction in impact 
rates at certain abundance thresholds. The control rule included in the 
current RPA (referred to as ``management strategy SWR'' in the Winship 
et al. 2012 addendum, beginning on page 57 of the document at http://www.pcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/SRWC_MSE_2012_02_28.pdf was 
also analyzed with results presented in Winship et al. 2012 (addendum); 
we welcome comments on this control rule as well.

References

Lindley, S.T., R.S. Schick, E. Mora, P.B. Adams, J.J. Anderson, S. 
Greene, C. Hanson, B.P. May, D.R. McEwan, R.B. MacFarlane, C. 
Swanson, and J.G. Williams. 2007. Framework for assessing viability 
of threatened and endangered Chinook salmon and steelhead in the 
Sacramento-San Joaquin Basin. San Francisco Estuary and Watershed 
Science 5(1), Article 4: 26 pages. Available at: http://repositories.cdlib.org/jmie/sfews/vol5/iss1/art4.
NMFS. 2010. Biological Opinion on the Authorization of Ocean Salmon 
Fisheries Pursuant to the Pacific Coast Salmon Fishery Management 
Plan and Additional Protective Measures as it affects Sacramento 
River Winter Chinook Salmon. National Marine Fisheries Service, 
Southwest Region. April 30, 2010. Available at: http://www.pcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/Final_Harvest_BiOp_April2010.pdf.
NMFS. 2012. Final Implementation of the 2010 Reasonable and Prudent 
Alternative Sacramento River winter-run Chinook Management Framework 
for the Pacific Coast Salmon Fishery Management Plan. National 
Marine Fisheries Service, Southwest Region. April 30, 2102. 
Available at: http://www.pcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/30APR2012_Sacramento_Winter_run_RPA_Implementation.pdf
O'Farrell, M.R., M.S. Mohr, A.M. Grover, and W.H. Satterthwaite. 
2012a. Sacramento River winter Chinook cohort reconstruction: 
analysis of ocean fishery impacts. U.S. Dept. Commer., NOAA Tech. 
Memo. NOAA-TM-NMFS-SWFSC-491, 68p. Available at: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/noaa_documents/NMFS/SWFSC/TM_NMFS_SWFSC/NOAA-TM-NMFS-SWFSC-491.pdf.
O'Farrell, M.R., S.D. Allen, and M.S. Mohr. 2012b. The winter-run 
harvest model (WRHM). U.S. Dept. Commer., NOAA Tech. Memo. NOAA-TM-
NMFS-SWFSC-489, 17p. Available at: http://docs.lib.noaa.gov/noaa_documents/NMFS/SWFSC/TM_NMFS_SWFSC/NOAA-TM-NMFS-SWFSC-489.pdf.
Winship, A.J., M.R. O'Farrell, and M.S. Mohr. 2012. Management 
strategy evaluation for Sacramento River winter Chinook salmon. 
Report available at: http://www.pcouncil.org/wp-content/uploads/SRWC_MSE_2012_02_28.pdf.
Winship, A.J., M.R. O'Farrell, and M.S. Mohr. 2013. Management 
strategy evaluation applied to the conservation of an endangered 
population subject to incidental take. Biological Conservation 
158:155-166.

    Dated: January 16, 2014.
Sean F. Corson,
Acting Deputy Director, Office of Sustainable Fisheries, National 
Marine Fisheries Service.
[FR Doc. 2014-01239 Filed 1-22-14; 8:45 am]
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