[Federal Register Volume 78, Number 166 (Tuesday, August 27, 2013)]
[Notices]
[Pages 52998-52999]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2013-20726]
[[Page 52998]]
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DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION
Federal Aviation Administration
Waiver to Space Exploration Technologies Corporation of
Acceptable Risk Limit for Launch
AGENCY: Federal Aviation Administration (FAA), DOT.
ACTION: Notice of waiver.
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SUMMARY: This notice concerns a petition for waiver submitted to the
Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) by Space Exploration Technologies
Corporation (SpaceX) to waive a limit that the risk to the public from
the launch of an expendable launch vehicle not exceed an expected
average number of 0.00003 casualties (Ec <= 30 x
10-6) from far field blast overpressure. The FAA grants the
petition, but limits collective risk to an expected average number of
0.0001 casualties.
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: For technical questions concerning
this waiver, contact Charles P. Brinkman, Licensing Program Lead,
Commercial Space Transportation--Licensing and Evaluation Division, 800
Independence Avenue SW., Washington, DC 20591; telephone: (202) 267-
7715; email: [email protected]. For legal questions concerning this
waiver, contact Laura Montgomery, Manager, Space Law Branch, AGC-250,
Office of the Chief Counsel, Regulations Division, Federal Aviation
Administration, 800 Independence Avenue SW., Washington, DC 20591;
telephone (202) 267-3150; email: [email protected].
SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION:
Background
On July 10, 2013, SpaceX submitted a petition to the FAA's Office
of Commercial Space Transportation (AST) requesting a waiver for a
launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB) of a Falcon 9 Version 1.1
(v1.1) launch vehicle carrying, a Canadian scientific and research
satellite called Cassiope, and several small secondary payloads. SpaceX
requested a waiver of 14 CFR 417.107(b)(1), which prohibits the launch
of an expendable launch vehicle if the total expected average number of
casualties (Ec) for the launch exceeds 0.00003 for risk from
far field blast overpressure.
The FAA licenses the launch of a launch vehicle and reentry of a
reentry vehicle under authority granted to the Secretary of
Transportation in the Commercial Space Launch Act of 1984, as amended
and re-codified by 51 U.S.C. Subtitle V, chapter 509 (Chapter 509), and
delegated to the FAA Administrator and the Associate Administrator for
Commercial Space Transportation, who exercises licensing authority
under Chapter 509.
SpaceX is a private commercial space flight company. It has
initiated activities with the U.S. Air Force's EELV Program to become a
certified launch service provider for National Security space missions.
In addition, SpaceX launches commercial payloads such as Cassiope.
This petition for waiver addresses an upcoming flight that SpaceX
plans to undertake transporting the Cassiope satellite and several
small secondary payloads to earth orbit. This will be the first launch
by SpaceX from VAFB. It will also be the first flight of the Falcon 9
v1.1 vehicle, which is larger and has greater thrust and payload
capacity than SpaceX's Falcon 9 vehicle. SpaceX's Falcon 9 v1.1 launch
vehicle will launch from VAFB and place the Cassiope satellite into a
near-polar orbit. The launch vehicle will also carry five secondary
payloads to the same orbit. The first stage will coast after stage
separation, and then perform an experimental burn with three engines to
reduce the entry velocity just prior to entry. Prior to landing in the
water, it will perform a second experimental burn with one engine to
impact the water with minimal velocity. The second stage will coast and
then perform an experimental burn to depletion.
The preliminary calculation of Ec for far field blast
overpressure shows that the launch would exceed the 0.00003 limit
imposed by section 417.107(b)(1) under anticipated weather conditions
for a daytime launch in September. Atmospheric conditions at the launch
site during the anticipated time of launch increase the far field blast
overpressure risk. The presence of inversion layers at VAFB is common,
and results in the reflection of shock waves from an explosion. This
reflection of shock waves can cause greater damage than would otherwise
be caused without the reflection from the inversion layer. Chances of
advantageous weather conditions during the day in September that would
allow a launch that meets the FAA's risk requirements are virtually
zero percent.\1\
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\1\ In calculating this percentage, the FAA relies on the
standard model developed by the 30th Space Wing from observation of
Mission Flight Control Officer response times to initiate flight
destruction of a malfunctioning launch vehicle. The 30th Space Wing
uses this standard time for its analysis.
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The Falcon 9 v1.1 is a new launch vehicle. The U.S. Air Force has
determined that its overall failure probability is nearly fifty percent
for each of the first two launches. AST has determined that the Air
Force's calculation of probability of failure satisfies the
requirements in part 417. Weather conditions during the day in
September are likely to be unfavorable and delays may last for days.
SpaceX, therefore, seeks a waiver of this risk requirement.
Waiver Criteria
Chapter 509 allows the FAA to waive a license requirement if the
waiver (1) will not jeopardize public health and safety, safety of
property; (2) will not jeopardize national security and foreign policy
interests of the United States; and (3) will be in the public interest.
51 U.S.C. 50905(b)(3) (2011); 14 CFR 404.5(b) (2011).
Sections 417.107(b)(1) Waiver Petition
Section 417.107(b)(1) prohibits the launch of a launch vehicle if
the Ec for the flight exceeds 0.00003 for any of the
following three risks: (1) Impacting inert and impacting explosive
debris, (2) toxic release, and (3) far field blast overpressure. For
reasons described below, the FAA waives the restrictions in section
417.107(b)(1) to allow SpaceX to conduct a flight with the
Ec resulting from far field blast overpressure exceeding
0.00003 as long as total Ec for the three hazards combined
does not exceed 0.0001. The FAA is not waiving the Ec
requirement for impacting inert and impacting explosive debris or for
toxic release.
Launch of the Falcon 9 Vehicle
The FAA waives the far field overpressure risk requirement of
section 417.107(b)(1) because the Falcon 9 v1.1 launch will not
jeopardize public health and safety or safety of property, a national
security or foreign policy interest of the United States, and is in the
public interest.
i. Public Health and Safety and Safety of Property
The Falcon 9 v1.1 launch is the first launch of the v1.1 vehicle,
and the first SpaceX launch from VAFB. Although the risk from far field
blast overpressure is likely to exceed 0.00003, the estimated risks for
debris and toxic release are very low. Based on preliminary
calculations performed by the U.S. Air Force for SpaceX, the collective
risk to the public from the Falcon 9 v1.1 launch will be less than
0.0001 approximately forty percent of the time during September.\2\
NASA, the
[[Page 52999]]
U.S. Air Force and other U.S. National Test ranges use 0.0001 as the
expected casualty limit across all three hazards as their criterion See
U.S. Air Force Instruction 91-217, Space Safety and Mishap Prevention
Program (2010); NASA Procedural Requirements 8715.5 Rev A, Range Flight
Safety Program (2010); Range Commanders Council (RCC) Standard 321-10,
Common Risk Criteria Standards for National Test Ranges (2010). If the
Falcon 9 v1.1's collective risk were to exceed 0.0001 expected
casualties, SpaceX would not launch until conditions improved
sufficiently for the risk of the launch to satisfy the limits allowed
by the waiver.
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\2\ The FAA assumes the standard model developed by the 30th
Space Wing from observation of Mission Flight Control Officer
response times to initiate flight destruction of a malfunctioning
launch vehicle. The 30th Space Wing uses this standard time for its
analysis.
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The increase in the Ec for the first launch of the
Falcon 9 v1.1 vehicle from VAFB is largely attributable to two factors.
First, the launch will take place from VAFB. VAFB is located in
California, and frequently experiences unique weather conditions that
exacerbate far field blast overpressure from a launch. An inversion
layer, an atmospheric region with a warmer temperature than the region
below, is common much of the year at VAFB. The presence of an inversion
layer could increase damage caused by an explosion because an inversion
layer may reflect the shock wave from an explosion back towards the
ground. By reflecting the shock wave back towards the ground,
surrounding buildings, and particularly glass windows, may experience
greater pressure, which could cause greater glass breakage. Second, the
estimated probability of failure to the Falcon 9 v1.1 is high because
it is a new launch vehicle. There is no way to reduce this estimated
failure probability, which is derived from the historically high number
of launch failures in new vehicles. This probability of failure is one
of the most critical variables in the Ec calculations.
This waiver for the risk from far field blast overpressure is
consistent with the Air Force total risk threshold for Ec of
100 x 10-6 for risks from debris, toxic release, and far
field blast overpressure combined. The current Ec
requirement for U.S. Government launches from U.S. National Test Ranges
is 0.0001, which, because it comprises debris, toxics, and
overpressure, means that the federal launch ranges permit the risk
attributable to overpressure to exceed the FAA's risk threshold. See
Air Force Instruction 91-217, Space Safety and Mishap Prevention
Program (2010). The U.S. Air Force approved a government launch of a
Titan, where the risk ranged from 145 to 317 in a million. Dept. of the
Air Force Memorandum, Overflight Risk Exceedance Waiver for Titan IV B-
30 Mission, (Apr. 4, 2005). Additionally, the FAA granted a waiver on
April 17, 2012, for risk from debris up to 0.000130 for a Falcon 9
launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station. Waiver of Acceptable Risk
Restriction for Launch and Reentry, Notice of Waiver, 77 FR 24556
(April 24, 2012). Again, risk was largely a result of a relatively high
failure probability that is unavoidably attached to a new launch
vehicle. Based on the fact that risk will remain very low, and will be
limited to the requirement for government launches (Ec of
less than 0.0001), granting a waiver in this case would not jeopardize
public health and safety or safety of property.
ii. National Security and Foreign Policy Implications
The FAA has identified no national security or foreign policy
implications associated with granting this waiver.
iii. Public Interest
The waiver is consistent with the public interest goals of Chapter
509. Three of the public policy goals of Chapter 509 are: (1) To
promote economic growth and entrepreneurial activity through use of the
space environment; (2) to encourage the United States private sector to
provide launch and reentry vehicles and associated services; and (3) to
facilitate the strengthening and expansion of the United States space
transportation infrastructure to support the full range of United
States space-related activities. See 51 U.S.C. 50901(b)(1), (2), (4).
With a requirement that Ec be less than 0.00003 for far
field blast overpressure, launch availability for the Western Range is
estimated to be virtually zero percent due to atmospheric conditions at
the launch site and the high failure probability necessarily assigned
to a new launch vehicle. This would certainly make the launch site
impractical for commercial launches, at least of new launch vehicles.
Granting a limited waiver for risk from far field blast overpressure as
long as the risk for all three risks does not exceed 100 x
10-6 increases launch availability for the first launch of
Falcon 9 v1.1 at VAFB to approximately forty percent for September,
depending on detailed analytical assumptions concerning flight
termination action. VAFB is the most suitable U.S. launch facility for
supporting the launches of satellites by large vehicles into polar
orbits. Granting this waiver makes VAFB a viable site for commercial
launches, helping to sustain the launch capacity for U.S. launch
providers, thereby supporting the industrial base and lowering overall
launch costs for commercial customers and the U.S. Government.
Additionally, the proposed launch is consistent with the principles
and goals of the 2010 National Space Policy, which emphasizes the
importance of developing a robust domestic commercial space
transportation industry and acquiring commercial space services to meet
United States Government requirements. The development of commercial
launch service providers is crucial because, as noted in the 2010
National Space Policy, United States access to space depends in the
first instance on launch capabilities. To that end, SpaceX has applied
to the U.S. Air Force's EELV Program to become a certified launch
service provider for National Security space missions. In accordance
with the Air Force's approved New Entrant Certification Guide, SpaceX
is required to demonstrate its compliance with EELV program
requirements, including successfully demonstrating launches of the
launch vehicle being proposed for certification. In the certification
approach being taken under the New Entrant Certification Guide, SpaceX
is required to successfully launch three Falcon 9 launch vehicles, the
first of which is planned to be the Cassiope mission from VAFB. Each
flight of the Falcon 9 builds heritage for this vehicle, which will be
used by the United States Government. NASA has already contracted with
SpaceX for Cargo Resupply Services missions from CCAFS using Falcon 9
v1.1. Accordingly, proceeding with the proposed launch is in the public
interest.
Issued in Washington, DC, on August 19, 2013.
Kenneth Wong,
Licensing and Evaluation Division Manager, Commercial Space
Transportation.
[FR Doc. 2013-20726 Filed 8-26-13; 8:45 am]
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