[Federal Register Volume 76, Number 135 (Thursday, July 14, 2011)]
[Proposed Rules]
[Pages 41562-41584]
From the Federal Register Online via the Government Publishing Office [www.gpo.gov]
[FR Doc No: 2011-17229]



[[Page 41561]]

Vol. 76

Thursday,

No. 135

July 14, 2011

Part II





Environmental Protection Agency





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40 CFR Part 52





Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; California; 2007 
South Coast PM2.5 Plan and 2007 State Strategy; Proposed Rules

  Federal Register / Vol. 76 , No. 135 / Thursday, July 14, 2011 / 
Proposed Rules  

[[Page 41562]]


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ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY

40 CFR Part 52

[EPA-R09-OAR-2009-0366; FRL-9435-1]


Approval and Promulgation of Implementation Plans; California; 
2007 South Coast PM2.5 Plan and 2007 State Strategy

AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

ACTION: Proposed rule.

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SUMMARY: EPA is proposing to approve in part and disapprove in part 
state implementation plan (SIP) revisions submitted by California to 
provide for attainment of the 1997 fine particulate matter 
(PM2.5) national ambient air quality standards in the Los 
Angeles-South Coast area (South Coast). These SIP revisions are the 
South Coast 2007 Air Quality Management Plan (South Coast 2007 AQMP) 
(revised 2011) and South Coast-related provisions of the 2007 State 
Strategy (revised 2009 and 2011). EPA is proposing to approve the 
emissions inventories; air quality modeling; reasonably available 
control measures/reasonably available control technology demonstration; 
the reasonable further progress and attainment demonstrations; and the 
transportation conformity motor vehicle emissions budgets. EPA is also 
proposing to grant California's request to extend the attainment 
deadline for the South Coast to April 5, 2015 and to approve 
commitments to measures and reductions by the South Coast Air Quality 
Management District and the California Air Resources Board. Finally, we 
are proposing to disapprove the SIP's contingency measures and to 
reject the assignment of 10 tpd of NOX reductions to the 
federal government. This proposed rule amends EPA's November 22, 2010 
proposed rule (75 FR 91294) on the South Coast PM2.5 plan 
and 2007 State strategy.

DATES: Any comments must arrive by August 15, 2011.

ADDRESSES: Submit comments, identified by docket number EPA-R09-OAR-
2009-0366, by one of the following methods:
     Federal eRulemaking Portal: http://www.regulations.gov. 
Follow the online instructions.
     E-mail: [email protected].
     Mail or deliver: Marty Robin, Office of Air Planning (AIR-
2), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Region 9, 75 Hawthorne Street, 
San Francisco, CA 94105.
    Instructions: All comments will be included in the public docket 
without change and may be made available online at http://www.regulations.gov, including any personal information provided, 
unless the comment includes Confidential Business Information (CBI) or 
other information whose disclosure is restricted by statute. 
Information that you consider CBI or otherwise protected should be 
clearly identified as such and should not be submitted through http://www.regulations.gov or e-mail. The http://www.regulations.gov Web site 
is an ``anonymous access'' system, and EPA will not know your identity 
or contact information unless you provide it in the body of your 
comment. If you send e-mail directly to EPA, your e-mail address will 
be automatically captured and included as part of the public comment. 
If EPA cannot read your comments due to technical difficulties and 
cannot contact you for clarification, EPA may not be able to consider 
your comment.
    Docket: The index to the docket for this action is available 
electronically on the http://www.regulations.gov Web site and in hard 
copy at EPA Region 9, 75 Hawthorne Street, San Francisco, California, 
94105. While all documents in the docket are listed in the index, some 
information may be publicly available only at the hard copy location 
(e.g., copyrighted material), and some may not be publicly available at 
either location (e.g., CBI). To inspect the hard copy materials, please 
schedule an appointment during normal business hours with the contact 
listed in the FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT section below.
    Copies of the SIP materials are also available for inspection at 
the following locations:
     California Air Resources Board, 1001 I Street, Sacramento, 
California 95812, and
     South Coast Air Quality Management District, 21865 E. 
Copley Drive, Diamond Bar, California 91765.

The SIP materials are also electronically available at: http://aqmd.gov/aqmp/07aqmp/index.html and http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/sip.htm.

FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Wienke Tax, Air Planning Office (AIR-
2), U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region 9, (415) 947-4192, 
[email protected].

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Throughout this document, ``we,'' ``us'' and 
``our'' refer to EPA.

Table of Contents

I. The PM2.5 NAAQS and the South Coast PM2.5 
Nonattainment Area
II. California's State Implementation Plan Submittals to Address 
PM2.5 Attainment in the South Coast Nonattainment Area
    A. California's SIP Submittals
    1. 2007 South Coast AQMP
    2. CARB 2007 State Strategy
    3. CARB 2009 State Strategy Status Report
    4. Additional 2008 SIP Submittal Related to Motor Vehicle 
Emissions Budgets
    5. CARB 2011 Progress Report
    6. Revisions to the 2007 PM2.5 and Ozone State 
Implementation Plan for South Coast Air Basin and Coachella Valley
    B. CAA Procedural Requirements for SIP Submittals
III. EPA's 2010 Proposed Action on the South Coast PM2.5 
SIP
IV. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for PM2.5 Attainment 
SIPs
V. Review of the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the South Coast Portion 
of the Revised 2007 State Strategy
    A. Emission Inventories
    1. Requirements for Emission Inventories
    2. Emission Inventories in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
    3. Proposed Action on the Emission Inventories
    B. Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM)/Reasonably 
Available Control Technology (RACT) and Adopted Control Strategy
    1. Requirement for RACM/RACT
    2. RACM/RACT Demonstration in the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the 
2007 State Strategy
    a. District's RACM/RACT Analysis and Adopted Control Strategy
    b. CARB's RACM Analysis and Adopted Control Strategy
    c. The Local Jurisdiction's RACM Analysis
    3. Proposed Actions on RACM/RACT Demonstration and Adopted 
Control Strategy
    C. Attainment Demonstration
    1. Requirements for Attainment Demonstration
    2. Air Quality Modeling in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
    3. PM2.5 Precursors Addressed in the South Coast 2007 
AQMP
    4. Extension of the Attainment Date
    5. Attainment Demonstration
    a. Enforceable Commitments
    i. The Commitment Represents a Limited Portion of Required 
Reductions
    ii. The State Is Capable of Fulfilling Its Commitment
    iii. The Commitment Is for a Reasonable and Appropriate Period 
of Time
    b. Federal Reductions
    6. Proposed Action on the Attainment Demonstration
    D. Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration
    1. Requirements for Reasonable Further Progress
    2. Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration in the South Coast 
2007 AQMP
    3. Proposed Action on the RFP Demonstration
    E. Contingency Measures
    1. Requirements for Contingency Measures
    2. Contingency Measures in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
    3. Proposed Action on the Contingency Measures
    F. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity

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    1. Requirements for Transportation Conformity
    2. Budgets in the South Coast 2007 AQMP and Additional 2008 
Submittal
    3. EPA's 2008 Adequacy/Inadequacy Finding
    4. Updated Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets in the 2011 Progress 
Report and Additional Revisions
    5. Proposed Action on the Revised Updated Budgets in the 2011 
Progress Report
    6. Proposed Action on the Trading Mechanism
VI. EPA's Proposed Actions and Consequences
    A. EPA's Proposed Approvals and Disapprovals
    B. CAA Consequences of a Final Disapproval
VII. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

I. The PM2.5 NAAQS and the South Coast PM2.5 
Nonattainment Area

    On July 18, 1997 (62 FR 36852), EPA established new national 
ambient air quality standards (NAAQS) for PM2.5, particulate 
matter with a diameter of 2.5 microns or less, including annual 
standards of 15.0 micrograms per cubic meter ([mu]g/m\3\) based on a 3-
year average of annual mean PM2.5 concentrations, and 24-
hour (daily) standards of 65 [mu]g/m\3\ based on a 3-year average of 
the 98th percentile of 24-hour concentrations. 40 CFR 50.7 EPA 
established the standards based on substantial evidence from numerous 
health studies demonstrating that serious health effects are associated 
with exposures to PM2.5 concentrations above the levels of 
these standards.
    Epidemiological studies have shown statistically significant 
correlations between elevated PM2.5 levels and premature 
mortality. Other important health effects associated with 
PM2.5 exposure include aggravation of respiratory and 
cardiovascular disease (as indicated by increased hospital admissions, 
emergency room visits, absences from school or work, and restricted 
activity days), changes in lung function and increased respiratory 
symptoms, as well as new evidence for more subtle indicators of 
cardiovascular health. Individuals particularly sensitive to 
PM2.5 exposure include older adults, people with heart and 
lung disease, and children. See, EPA, Air Quality Criteria for 
Particulate Matter, No. EPA/600/P-99/002aF and EPA/600/P-99/002bF, 
October 2004.
    PM2.5 can be emitted directly into the atmosphere as a 
solid or liquid particle (``primary'' or ``direct PM2.5'') 
or can be formed in the atmosphere as a result of various chemical 
reactions from precursor emissions of nitrogen oxides (NOX), 
sulfur oxides (SOX), volatile organic compounds (VOC) and 
ammonia (NH3) (``secondary PM2.5''). See 72 FR 
20586, 20589 (April 25, 2007).
    Following promulgation of a new or revised NAAQS, EPA is required 
by Clean Air Act (CAA) section 107(d) to designate areas throughout the 
United States as attaining or not attaining the NAAQS. On January 5, 
2005, EPA published initial air quality designations for the 1997 
PM2.5 NAAQS, based on air quality monitoring data for three-
year periods of 2001-2003 or 2002-2004 (70 FR 944). These designations 
became effective on April 5, 2005.
    EPA designated the ``Los Angeles-South Coast Air Basin'' area 
(South Coast nonattainment area), including Orange County, the 
southwestern two-thirds of Los Angeles County, southwestern San 
Bernardino County, and western Riverside County as nonattainment for 
both the 1997 24-hour and the annual PM2.5 standards. The 
South Coast PM2.5 nonattainment area is home to about 17 
million people, has a diverse economic base, and contains one of the 
highest-volume port areas in the world. For a precise description of 
the geographic boundaries of the South Coast PM2.5 
nonattainment area, see 40 CFR 81.305.\1\ The local air district with 
primary responsibility for developing a plan to attain the 
PM2.5 NAAQS in this area is the South Coast Air Quality 
Management District (District or SCAQMD).
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    \1\ On October 17, 2006, EPA strengthened the 24-hour 
PM2.5 NAAQS by lowering the level to 35 [mu]g/m\3\. At 
the same time, we retained the level of the annual PM2.5 
standard at 15.0 [mu]g/m\3\. 71 FR 61144. On November 13, 2009, EPA 
designated areas, including the South Coast, with respect to the 
revised 24-hour NAAQS. 74 FR 58688. California is now required to 
submit an attainment plan for the 35 [mu]g/m\3\ standards by 
December 14, 2012. In this preamble, all references to the 
PM2.5 NAAQS, unless otherwise specified, are to the 1997 
24-hour PM2.5 standards of 65 [mu]g/m\3\ and annual 
standards of 15 [mu]g/m\3\ as codified in 40 CFR 50.7.
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    Ambient 24-hour PM2.5 levels in the South Coast are well 
below the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS. Ambient annual PM2.5 
levels are improving but are still above the federal NAAQS. The design 
value monitor at Mira Loma recorded a value of 16.8 [mu]g/m\3\ for the 
2008-2010 period.\2\ In the South Coast, the levels and composition of 
PM2.5 differ by geographic location, with higher 
PM2.5 concentrations typically occurring in metropolitan Los 
Angeles and in the inland valley areas of San Bernardino and 
metropolitan Riverside Counties. The higher PM2.5 
concentrations in Los Angeles County are mainly due to secondary 
formation of particulates. See South Coast 2007 AQMP, page 2-13.
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    \2\ See the Air Quality Subsystem (AQS) Preliminary Design Value 
Report dated April 21, 2011 in the docket for today's action. 16.8 
[mu]g/m\3\ is the highest design value in the South Coast 
nonattainment area. The design value is the three year average of 
annual means of a single monitoring site. (see 40 CFR 50 Appendix N 
Section 1(c)(1)). This design value is based on 2008 and 2009 data 
that are complete, validated, and certified by the District and on 
2010 data that are complete and validated but not yet certified by 
the District.
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II. California's State Implementation Plan Submittals To Address 
PM2.5 Attainment in the South Coast Nonattainment Area

A. California's SIP Submittals

    Designation of an area as nonattainment starts the process for a 
state to develop and submit to EPA a State Implementation plan (SIP) 
under title 1, part D of the CAA. This SIP must include, among other 
things, a demonstration of how the NAAQS will be attained in the 
nonattainment area as expeditiously as practicable, but no later than 
the date required by the CAA. Under CAA section 172(b), a State has up 
to three years after an area's designation to nonattainment to submit 
its SIP to EPA. For the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS, these 
nonattainment SIPs were due no later than April 5, 2008.
    California has made six SIP submittals to address PM2.5 
nonattainment in the South Coast nonattainment area. The two principal 
ones are the District's 2007 PM2.5 Plan (South Coast 2007 
AQMP) and the CARB's State Strategy for California's 2007 State 
Implementation Plan (2007 State Strategy).
    In addition to these submittals, the District and State have also 
submitted numerous rules that contribute to improving air quality in 
the South Coast nonattainment area. See Appendices A and B of the 
technical support document (TSD) for this proposal.
1. 2007 South Coast AQMP
    On November 28, 2007, the California Air Resources Board (CARB or 
State) submitted the ``Final 2007 Air Quality Management Plan, June 
2007.'' \3\ This

[[Page 41564]]

Plan was adopted by the District on June 1, 2007 and submitted to CARB 
on October 24, 2007.\4\ The South Coast 2007 AQMP includes a 
PM2.5 attainment demonstration for the South Coast. In order 
to meet relevant CAA requirements for the PM2.5 NAAQS, the 
South Coast 2007 AQMP includes base and projected year PM2.5 
emissions inventories for the South Coast nonattainment area; air 
quality monitoring data; short-, medium- and long-term District control 
measures; a summary of CARB's control measures; transportation control 
measures (TCMs); a demonstration of reasonable further progress (RFP); 
a modeled attainment demonstration; a demonstration of reasonably 
available control measures/reasonably available control technology 
(RACM/RACT); contingency measures for the 1997 PM2.5 RFP and 
for attainment for the South Coast PM2.5 nonattainment area; 
and a request to extend the attainment date for the 1997 
PM2.5 NAAQS to April 5, 2015, although all controls 
necessary for attainment by that date will be in place by the 
attainment year of 2014.\5\ The South Coast 2007 AQMP submittal also 
includes District Governing Board Resolution 07-9 adopting the final 
South Coast 2007 AQMP.
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    \3\ The South Coast 2007 AQMP is the first South Coast Plan to 
address PM2.5. We have previously acted on numerous South 
Coast air quality plans for ozone, PM-10, carbon monoxide, and 
NO2, such as the 1997/1999 AQMP. We approved the ozone 
portion of the 1997 South Coast AQMP, as amended in 1999, on April 
10, 2000 (see 65 FR 18903). Our most recent action on a SIP 
addressing the CAA requirements for the South Coast ozone 
nonattainment area was our partial approval and partial disapproval 
of the 2003 AQMP (see 74 FR 10176, March 10, 2009). Our 2009 final 
action was challenged in the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals, which 
published an opinion remanding certain aspects of EPA's action for 
further action consistent with the opinion. See Association of 
Irritated Residents v. EPA, 632 F.3d 584 (9th Cir. 2011). The issues 
in dispute relate to the consequences of an EPA disapproval of a SIP 
submittal, the adequacy of EPA's evaluation of a particular control 
measure from the 2003 State Strategy, and the rationale for EPA's 
approval of the State's submittal as meeting the requirements of CAA 
section 182(d)(1)(A) (TCMs to offset growth in emissions from growth 
in VMT) in the South Coast. EPA has sought rehearing on some of the 
issues, and the mandate in this case has not yet been issued pending 
action by the court on the petition for rehearing.
    \4\ See letter, James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, to 
Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, September 
15, 2010, with enclosures.
    \5\ While the applicable attainment date for PM2.5 
areas with a full five-year extension is April 5, 2015, reductions 
must be implemented by 2014 to achieve attainment by that date. See 
40 CFR 51.1007(b). We, therefore, refer to 2014 as the attainment 
year and April 5, 2015 as the attainment date.
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2. CARB 2007 State Strategy
    To demonstrate attainment, the South Coast 2007 AQMP relies in part 
on measures in the 2007 State Strategy. The 2007 State Strategy was 
adopted on September 27, 2007 and submitted to EPA on November 16, 
2007.\6\ It discusses CARB's overall approach to addressing, in 
conjunction with local plans, attainment of both the 1997 
PM2.5 and 8-hour ozone NAAQS not only in the South Coast 
nonattainment area but also in California's other nonattainment areas 
such as the San Joaquin Valley and the Sacramento area. It also 
includes CARB's commitments to propose 15 defined State measures \7\ 
and to obtain specific amounts of aggregate emissions reductions of 
direct PM2.5, NOX, VOC and SOX in the 
South Coast from sources under the State's jurisdiction, primarily on- 
and off-road motor vehicles and engines.
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    \6\ See CARB Resolution No. 07-28, September 27, 2007 with 
attachments and letter from James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, 
CARB, to Wayne Nastri, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, 
November 16, 2007 with enclosures.
    \7\ The 2007 State Strategy also includes measures to be 
implemented by the California Bureau of Automotive Repair (Smog 
Check improvements) and the California Department of Pesticide 
Regulation (VOC reductions from pesticide use). See 2007 State 
Strategy, p. 64-65 and CARB Resolution 7-28, Attachment B, p. 8.
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3. CARB 2009 State Strategy Status Report
    On August 12, 2009, CARB submitted the ``Status Report on the State 
Strategy for California's 2007 State Implementation Plan (SIP) and 
Proposed Revision to the SIP Reflecting Implementation of the 2007 
State Strategy'', dated March 24, 2009, adopted April 24, 2009 (``2009 
State Strategy Status Report''),\8\ which updates the 2007 State 
Strategy to reflect its implementation during 2007 and 2008.
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    \8\ See CARB Resolution No. 09-34, April 24, 2009 and letter, 
James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB to Wayne Nastri, 
Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, August 12, 2009 with 
enclosures. Only pages 11-27 of the 2009 State Strategy Status 
Report are submitted as a SIP revision. The balance of the report is 
for informational purposes only. See Attachment A to CARB Resolution 
No. 09-34.
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    In today's proposal, we are evaluating only those portions of the 
South Coast 2007 AQMP and 2007 State Strategy and its revisions 
(including the 2011 revisions described below) that are relevant for 
attainment of the 1997 PM2.5 standards in the South Coast 
nonattainment area.
4. Additional 2008 SIP Submittal Related to Motor Vehicle Emissions 
Budgets
    In addition to the SIP submittals for the 1997 PM2.5 
NAAQS mentioned above, on April 4, 2008, the District Governing Board 
approved an alternative approach for transportation conformity motor 
vehicle emission budgets for the South Coast nonattainment area. This 
new approach was based on the 2007 SIP baseline emissions reflecting 
only the regulations adopted as of October 2006 for all milestone years 
up to the attainment year. The CARB Governing Board approved Resolution 
08-27 itemizing the modifications to the South Coast nonattainment area 
transportation conformity emission budgets. The revised motor vehicle 
emissions budgets were submitted as an amendment to the California SIP 
on April 30, 2008 and were amended as part of the 2011 Progress Report 
discussed below. We are acting on the budgets as amended in 2011 today.
5. CARB 2011 Progress Report
    On May 18, 2011, CARB submitted the ``Progress Report on 
Implementation of PM2.5 State Implementation Plans (SIP) for 
the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins and Proposed SIP 
Revisions'', dated March 29, 2011, and adopted April 28, 2011 (``2011 
Progress Report'').\9\ This submittal, which updates both the 2007 
State Strategy and the South Coast 2007 AQMP, shows that both CARB and 
the District have made significant progress in meeting their 
commitments to adopt measures and to reduce emissions. More 
specifically, it updates CARB's rulemaking calendar in the 2007 State 
Strategy to reflect the current status of CARB's adopted 
PM2.5 measures and to change the expected action dates for 
several measures. It also updates the RFP demonstration, contingency 
measures, and transportation conformity motor vehicle emissions budgets 
in the South Coast 2007 AQMP to reflect rule adoption, changes to 
activity and emissions factors for certain source categories, and the 
impact on projected emissions levels in the South Coast nonattainment 
area of the recent economic recession.\10\
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    \9\ See CARB Board Resolution 11-24, May 18, 2011 and letter, 
James N. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB to Jared Blumenfeld, 
Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, May 19, 2011 with enclosures. 
Only Appendices B, C and D of the 2011 Progress Report are submitted 
as a SIP revision. The balance of the report is for informational 
purposes only.
    \10\ On June 20, 2011, CARB posted to its Web site technical 
revisions to the updated motor vehicle emissions budgets (budgets) 
in the 2011 Progress Report. See http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/2007sip/2007sip.htm. We discuss these revisions in the section on 
budgets below.
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6. Revisions to the 2007 PM2.5 and Ozone State 
Implementation Plan for South Coast Air Basin and Coachella Valley
    Also, on May 19, 2011, CARB submitted a SIP revision entitled 
``Revisions to the 2007 PM2.5 and Ozone State Implementation 
Plan for South Coast Air Basin and Coachella Valley (SIP Revisions)''. 
These SIP revisions provide revised control measure commitments, a 
revised rule implementation schedule, and a partial backstop for the 10 
tpd NOX federal assignment for the South Coast 2007 
AQMP.\11\ For the purposes of today's

[[Page 41565]]

proposal, we will refer to this SIP revision as ``2011 Progress Report, 
Appendix F'', since it was included as an Appendix to the 2011 Progress 
Report submitted on May 18, 2011.
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    \11\ See letter, Lynn Terry, Deputy Executive Officer, CARB, to 
Jared Blumenfeld, Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9, dated May 
19, 2011, and enclosed ARB Board Resolution 11-24.
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    In today's proposal, we are only evaluating those portions of the 
South Coast 2007 AQMP and the 2007 State Strategy and its revisions 
that are relevant for attainment of the PM2.5 standards in 
the South Coast nonattainment area.
    Future references in this proposal to the AQMP and the 2007 State 
Strategy will be to the AQMP as revised in 2011 and the Strategy as 
revised in 2009 and 2011, respectively, unless otherwise noted.

B. CAA Procedural Requirements for SIP Submittals

    CAA sections 110(a)(1) and (2) and 110(l) require a state to 
provide reasonable public notice and opportunity for public hearing 
prior to the adoption and submittal of a SIP or SIP revision. To meet 
this requirement, every SIP submittal should include evidence that 
adequate public notice was given and an opportunity for a public 
hearing was provided consistent with EPA's implementing regulations in 
40 CFR 51.102.
    Both the District and CARB have satisfied applicable statutory and 
regulatory requirements for reasonable public notice and hearing prior 
to adoption and submittal of the South Coast 2007 AQMP. The District 
conducted public workshops, provided public comment periods, and held 
public hearings prior to the adoption of the South Coast 2007 AQMP on 
June 1, 2007 (District Governing Board Resolution No. 07-9). CARB 
provided the required public notice and opportunity for public comment 
prior to its September 27, 2007 public hearing on the plan. See CARB 
Resolution No. 07-41.
    CARB conducted public workshops, provided public comment periods, 
and held a public hearing prior to the adoption of the 2007 State 
Strategy on September 27, 2007. (CARB Resolution No. 07-28). CARB also 
provided the required public notice, opportunity for public comment, 
and a public hearing prior to its April 24, 2009 adoption of the 2009 
State Strategy Status Report. CARB also provided the required public 
notice, opportunity for public comment, and a public hearing prior to 
its April 28, 2011 adoption of the 2011 Progress Report. See CARB 
Resolution 09-34 and CARB Executive Order S-11-010.
    The SIP submittals include proof of publication for notices of the 
District and CARB public hearings, as evidence that all hearings were 
properly noticed. We find, therefore, that the four submittals that 
comprise the South Coast PM2.5 Plan meet the procedural 
requirements of CAA sections 110(a) and 110(l).
    CAA section 110(k)(1)(B) requires EPA to determine whether a SIP 
submittal is complete within 60 days of receipt. This section also 
provides that any plan that EPA has not affirmatively determined to be 
complete or incomplete will become complete 6 months after the date of 
submittal by operation of law. EPA's SIP completeness criteria are 
found in 40 CFR part 51, Appendix V.
    The South Coast 2007 AQMP became complete by operation of law on 
May 28, 2008. The November 16, 2007 submission of the 2007 State 
Strategy and the 2009 revisions to the Strategy became complete by 
operation of law on May 16, 2008 and February 12, 2010, respectively. 
We determined that the 2011 Progress Report was complete on June 13, 
2011.\12\
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    \12\ See letter, Deborah Jordan, EPA Region 9, to James 
Goldstene, CARB, dated June 13, 2011 in the docket for today's 
action.
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III. EPA's 2010 Proposed Action on the South Coast PM2.5 SIP

    This is the second time EPA has proposed action on California's SIP 
to address attainment of the 1997 PM2.5 standards in the 
South Coast nonattainment area. On November 22, 2010 (75 FR 71294), EPA 
proposed to approve in part and disapprove in part the 2007 South Coast 
PM2.5 plan and the related portions of the 2007 State 
Strategy as amended in 2009.
    Specifically, we proposed to approve the emissions inventories as 
meeting the applicable requirements of the CAA and the PM2.5 
implementation rule in 40 CFR part 51, subpart Z. We proposed to 
approve the District's and CARB's commitments to specific measures and 
specific aggregate emissions reductions in these SIP revisions because 
their approval would strengthen the SIP. We also proposed to approve 
the air quality modeling.
    We previously proposed to disapprove the attainment demonstration 
as not meeting the applicable requirements of the CAA and the 
PM2.5 implementation rule because it relied too extensively 
on enforceable commitments to reduce emissions in place of fully-
adopted and submitted rules. Based on this proposed disapproval, we 
also proposed to disapprove the RACM/RACT and RFP demonstrations. We 
also proposed to disapprove the related contingency measures and 
transportation conformity motor vehicle emissions budgets for the RFP 
milestone years 2009 and 2012 and the attainment year of 2014. Finally, 
we proposed not to grant the State's request to extend the attainment 
date for the PM2.5 NAAQS in the South Coast nonattainment 
area to April 5, 2015.
    During the comment period for the November 2010 proposal, we 
received four comment letters from the public as well as comment 
letters from CARB and the District. Subsequent to the close of the 
comment period, CARB adopted and submitted revisions to the South Coast 
2007 AQMP and 2007 State Strategy. After considering information 
contained in the comment letters and these supplemental SIP submittals, 
we have substantially amended our November 2010 proposed action as 
described below. EPA will consider all significant comments submitted 
in response to both its November 2010 proposal and today's proposal 
before taking final action on the South Coast 2007 AQMP. However, EPA 
strongly encourages those who submitted comments on the November 2010 
proposal to submit revised comments reflecting today's amended proposal 
during the comment period on this amended proposal.

IV. CAA and Regulatory Requirements for PM2.5 Attainment 
SIPs

    EPA is implementing the PM2.5 NAAQS under Title 1, part 
D, subpart 1 of the CAA, which includes section 172, ``Nonattainment 
plan provisions.'' Section 172(a)(2) establishes the attainment date 
for a PM2.5 nonattainment area ``as expeditiously as 
practicable'' but no later than five years after the area's designation 
as nonattainment. This section also allows EPA to grant up to a five-
year extension of an area's attainment date based on the severity of 
the area's nonattainment and the availability and feasibility of 
controls. EPA designated the South Coast as a nonattainment area 
effective April 5, 2005, and thus the applicable attainment date is no 
later than April 5, 2010 or, should EPA grant a full five-year 
extension, no later than April 5, 2015.
    Section 172(c) contains the general statutory planning requirements 
applicable to all nonattainment areas, including the requirements for 
emissions inventories, RACM/RACT, attainment demonstrations, RFP 
demonstrations, and contingency measures.
    On April 25, 2007, EPA issued the Clean Air Fine Particle 
Implementation

[[Page 41566]]

Rule for the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS. 72 FR 20586, codified at 40 
CFR part 51, subpart Z (PM2.5 implementation rule). The 
PM2.5 implementation rule and its preamble address the 
statutory planning requirements for emissions inventories, RACM/RACT, 
attainment demonstrations including air quality modeling requirements, 
RFP demonstrations, and contingency measures. This rule also addresses 
other matters such as which PM2.5 precursors must be 
addressed by the State in its PM2.5 attainment SIP, 
applicable attainment dates, and the requirement for mid-course 
reviews.\13\ We will discuss each of these CAA and regulatory 
requirements for attainment plans in more detail below.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \13\ In June 2007, a petition to the EPA Administrator was filed 
on behalf of several public health and environmental groups 
requesting reconsideration of four provisions in the 
PM2.5 implementation rule. See EarthJustice, Petition for 
Reconsideration, ``In the Matter of Final Clean Air Fine Particle 
Implementation Rule,'' June 25, 2007. These provisions are (1) the 
presumption that compliance with the Clean Air Interstate Rule 
satisfies the NOX and SO2 RACT requirements 
for electric generating units; (2) the deferral of the requirement 
to establish emission limits for condensable particulate matter 
(CPM) until January 1, 2011; (3) revisions to the criteria for 
analyzing the economic feasibility of RACT; and (4) the use of out-
of-area emissions reductions to demonstrate RFP. These provisions 
are found in the PM2.5 implementation rule and preamble 
at 20623-20628, 40 CFR 51.1002(c), 20619-20620, and 20636, 
respectively. On May 13, 2010, EPA granted the petition with respect 
to the fourth issue. Letter, Gina McCarthy, EPA, to David Baron and 
Paul Cort, EarthJustice, May 13, 2010. On April 25, 2011, EPA 
granted the petition with respect to the first and third issues, but 
denied the petition with respect to the second issue given that the 
deferral period for CPM emissions limits had already ended. Letter, 
Lisa P. Jackson, EPA, to Paul Cort, EarthJustice, April 25, 2011. 
EPA intends to publish in the Federal Register notice that will 
announce the granting of the latter petition with respect to certain 
issues and to initiate a notice and comment process to consider 
proposed changes to the 2007 PM2.5 implementation rule.
    Neither the District nor the State relied on the first, third, 
or fourth of these provisions in preparing the South Coast 2007 AQMP 
or 2007 State Strategy. The District has deferred CPM limits in its 
rules. This limited deferral does not affect the South Coast 2007 
AQMP's RACM/RACT and expeditious attainment demonstrations. EPA will 
evaluate any rule adopted or revised by the District after January 
1, 2011 to assure that it appropriately addresses CPM.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

V. Review of the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the South Coast Portion of 
the 2007 State Strategy

    We summarize our evaluation of the South Coast PM2.5 
plan's compliance with applicable CAA and EPA regulatory requirements 
below. Our detailed evaluation can be found in the TSD for this 
proposal, which is available on line at http://www.regulations.gov in 
docket number EPA-R09-OAR-2009-0366, or from the EPA contact listed at 
the beginning of this notice.

A. Emissions Inventories

1. Requirements for Emissions Inventories
    CAA section 172(c)(3) requires states to submit a plan revision 
that includes ``comprehensive, accurate, current inventory of actual 
emissions from all sources of the relevant pollutant.'' The 
PM2.5 implementation rule requires states to include direct 
PM2.5 emissions and emissions of all PM2.5 
precursors in this inventory, even if it has determined that control of 
any of these precursors is not necessary for expeditious attainment. 40 
CFR 51.1008(a)(2) and 72 FR 20586, at 20648. Direct PM2.5 
includes condensable particulate matter. See 40 CFR 51.1000. 
PM2.5 precursors are NOX, SO2, VOC, 
and ammonia (NH3).\14\ Id. The inventories should meet the 
data requirements of EPA's Consolidated Emissions Reporting Rule 
(codified at 40 CFR part 51 subpart A) and include any additional 
inventory information needed to support the SIP's attainment 
demonstration and (where applicable) RFP demonstration. 40 CFR 
51.1008(a)(1) and (2).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \14\ The District controls sulfur oxides (SOX), which 
includes SO2, and considers the two terms interchangeable 
for emissions purposes. We will use SOX in this notice.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Baseline emissions inventories are required for the attainment 
demonstration and for meeting RFP requirements. As determined on the 
date of designation, the base year for these inventories should be the 
most recent calendar year for which a complete inventory was required 
to be submitted to EPA. The emission inventory for calendar year 2002 
or other suitable year should be used for attainment planning and RFP 
plans for areas initially designated nonattainment for the 
PM2.5 NAAQS in 2005. 40 CFR 51.1008(b).
    EPA has provided additional guidance for PM2.5 emission 
inventories in ``Emissions Inventory Guidance for Implementation of 
Ozone and Particulate Matter NAAQS and Regional Haze Regulations,'' 
November 2005 (EPA-454/R-05-001).
2. Emissions Inventories in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
    The base year and future year baseline planning inventories for 
direct PM2.5 and all PM2.5 precursors for the 
South Coast nonattainment area together with additional documentation 
for the inventories are found in Appendix III of the South Coast 2007 
AQMP. Average annual day baseline inventories are provided for the 
plan's base year of 2002 (the reference year for the RFP demonstration) 
as well as 2005, 2008, 2010, 2011, and 2014. The base year and baseline 
inventories incorporate reductions from federal, state, and District 
measures adopted prior to 2007. South Coast 2007 AQMP, page 3-1. The 
District also provided both summer and winter planning inventories for 
PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursors. South Coast 2007 
AQMP, Appendix III, page III-1-23.
    Table 1 is a summary of the average annual day inventories for 
directly-emitted PM2.5 and for the PM2.5 
precursors NOX, VOC, and SOX for the base year of 
2002 from the South Coast 2007 AQMP (derived from Appendix A, Table A-
2). It is these inventories that provide the basis for the control 
measure analysis and the RFP and attainment demonstrations in the South 
Coast 2007 AQMP.

 Table 1--South Coast Nonattainment Area Emissions Inventory Summary for PM2.5 and PM2.5 Precursors for the 2002
                                                  Baseline Year
                               [Annual average day emissions in tons per day] \a\
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                                       NH3 \b\
          Emissions inventory category            NOX  2002    VOC  2002    PM2.5 2002    SOX 2002       2005
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Stationary/Areawide Sources....................           93          302           60           22           75
On-road Mobile Sources.........................          628          362           18            4           29
Off-road Mobile Sources........................          372          180           21           27          n/a
                                                ----------------------------------------------------------------

[[Page 41567]]

 
    Total......................................         1093          844           99           53          104
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ Source: 2007 AQMP, pp. 3-9 and 3-14, Tables 3-1A and 3-3A. Numbers may not add due to rounding. Ammonia
  emissions estimates were updated to 2005 by SCAQMD.
\b\ NH3 numbers were not provided for 2002.

    As a starting point for the South Coast 2007 AQMP's inventories, 
the District used CARB's inventory for the year 2002. An example of 
this inventory and CARB's documentation for its inventories can be 
found in Appendices A and F, respectively, of the 2007 State Strategy. 
The 2002 inventory for the South Coast nonattainment area was projected 
to future years using CARB's California Emission Forecasting and 
Planning Inventory System (CEFIS). South Coast 2007 AQMP, Appendix III, 
page III-1-1. Both base year and baseline inventories use the current 
version of California's mobile source emissions model approved by EPA 
for use in SIPs, EMFAC2007, for estimating on-road motor vehicle 
emissions. 73 FR 3464 (January 18, 2008). Off-road inventories were 
developed using the CARB off-road model. Ammonia emissions estimates 
were provided separately by the District.\15\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \15\ Electronic mail from Kathy Hsiao, SCAQMD to Wienke Tax, EPA 
Region 9, ``RE: NH3 numbers for SCAB,'' dated October 29, 2010.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    When CARB submitted the 2011 Progress Report, the revised 
attainment demonstration for the South Coast was based on the 2002 
baseline inventory. This is consistent with the baseline inventory in 
the 2007 AQMP, as well as the base year for the RFP demonstration. It 
is also the year recommended by EPA guidance.\16\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \16\ See 72 FR 20586, at 20647.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. Proposed Action on the Emission Inventories
    The inventories in the South Coast 2007 AQMP are based on the most 
current and accurate information available to the State and District at 
the time the Plan was developed and submitted (including using the 
latest EPA-approved version of California's mobile source emissions 
model, EMFAC2007), address comprehensively all source categories in the 
South Coast nonattainment area, and are consistent with EPA's inventory 
guidance. For these reasons, EPA is proposing to approve the 2002 base 
year emissions inventory in the South Coast 2007 AQMP as meeting the 
requirements of CAA section 172(c)(3) and 40 CFR 51.1008(a)(1) and to 
find that the baseline inventories in the South Coast 2007 AQMP provide 
an adequate basis for the RACM/RACT, RFP, and attainment 
demonstrations. We provide more detail on our review of the base year 
inventory as well as the projected year inventories in section II.A. of 
the TSD.
    Since late 2007, California has experienced an economic recession 
that has greatly reduced current levels of economic activity in the 
State's construction and goods movement sectors. The recession has 
resulted in lowered projected future levels of activity in this sector. 
2011 Progress Report, Appendix E. As a result, projected emission 
levels from these categories are now substantially lower than the 
levels projected for 2008 and later in the Plan as submitted in 2007. 
At this time, California is addressing these recession impacts on 
future economic activity through adjustments to the baseline 
inventories for specific source categories. See 2011 Progress Report, 
Appendix E, page 2. There are no recession-related adjustments to the 
2002 base year inventory in the South Coast 2007 AQMP.
    CARB also made technical changes to the inventories for diesel 
trucks, buses, and certain categories of off-road mobile source engines 
as part of its December 2010 rulemaking amending the In-Use On-Road 
Truck and Bus Rule and the In-Use Off-Road Engine rule. Id. The State 
estimates that these changes collectively reduce the 2002 base year 
total inventory in the South Coast by 4 percent for NOX and 
5 percent for PM2.5.\17\ These changes are small given the 
normal and unavoidable uncertainties in all emissions inventories, and 
therefore, do not change our basis for proposing to approve the base 
year inventory or to find the baseline inventories adequate for SIP 
planning purposes. We discuss the impact of these changes on the plan's 
RFP and attainment demonstrations later in this notice.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \17\ See Attachment 1 to the letter, Lynn Terry, Deputy 
Executive Officer, CARB, to Elizabeth Adams, Deputy Director, Air 
Division, US EPA Region 9, dated May 18, 2011 (``CARB Progress 
Report supplement''), in the docket for today's proposal.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    We note that the District and CARB are currently working on 
revisions to the South Coast AQMP to address the 2006 24-hour 
PM2.5 standards. These revisions are due to EPA in December 
2012 and will include the most current inventory information that is 
available.

B. Reasonably Available Control Measures (RACM)/Reasonably Available 
Control Technology (RACT) and Adopted Control Strategy

1. Requirements for RACM/RACT
    CAA section 172(c)(1) requires that each attainment plan ``provide 
for the implementation of all reasonably available control measures as 
expeditiously as practicable (including such reductions in emissions 
from existing sources in the area as may be obtained through the 
adoption, at a minimum, of reasonably available control technology), 
and shall provide for attainment of the national primary ambient air 
quality standards.'' EPA defines RACM as measures that a State finds 
are both reasonably available and contribute to attainment as 
expeditiously as practicable in its nonattainment area. Thus, what 
constitutes RACM/RACT in a PM2.5 attainment plan is closely 
tied to that plan's expeditious attainment demonstration. 40 CFR 
51.1010; 72 FR 20586 at 20612. States are required to evaluate RACM/
RACT for direct PM2.5 and all of its attainment plan 
precursors. 40 CFR 51.1002(c).
    Consistent with subpart 1 of Part D of the CAA, EPA is requiring a 
combined approach to RACM and RACT for PM2.5 attainment 
plans. Subpart 1, unlike subparts 2 and 4, does not identify specific 
source categories for which EPA must issue control technology documents 
or guidelines for what constitutes RACT, or identify specific source 
categories for State and EPA evaluation during attainment plan 
development. 72 FR 20586 at 20610. Rather, under subpart 1, EPA 
considers

[[Page 41568]]

RACT to be part of an area's overall RACM obligation. Because of the 
variable nature of the PM2.5 problem in different 
nonattainment areas, EPA determined not only that states should have 
flexibility with respect to RACT and RACM controls but also that in 
areas needing significant emission reductions to attain the standards, 
RACT/RACM controls on smaller sources may be necessary to reach 
attainment as expeditiously as practicable. 72 FR 20586 at 20612, 
20615. Thus, under the PM2.5 implementation rule, RACT and 
RACM are those reasonably available measures that contribute to 
attainment as expeditiously as practicable in the specific 
nonattainment area. 40 CFR 51.1010; 72 FR 20586 at 20612.
    The PM2.5 implementation rule requires that attainment 
plans include the list of measures the state considered and information 
sufficient to show that a state met all requirements for the 
determination of what constitutes RACM/RACT in its specific 
nonattainment area. 40 CFR 51.1010. In addition, the rule requires that 
the state, in determining whether a particular emissions reduction 
measure or set of measures must be adopted as RACM/RACT, consider the 
cumulative impact of implementing the available measures and adopt as 
RACM/RACT any potential measures that are reasonably available 
considering technological and economic feasibility if, considered 
collectively, they would advance the attainment date by one year or 
more. Id. Any measures that are necessary to meet these requirements 
that are not already either federally promulgated, part of the state's 
SIP, or otherwise creditable in SIPs must be submitted in enforceable 
form as part of a state's attainment plan for the area. 72 FR 20586 at 
20614.
    A more comprehensive discussion of the RACM/RACT requirement for 
PM2.5 attainment plans and EPA's guidance for it can be 
found in the PM2.5 implementation rule preamble at 72 FR 
20586, at 20609-20633 and in section II.D. of the TSD for this 
proposal.
2. RACM/RACT Demonstration in the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the 2007 
State Strategy
    For the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the 2007 State Strategy, the 
District, CARB and the local agency (through the South Coast's 
metropolitan planning organization (MPO), the Southern California 
Association of Governments (SCAG)), each undertook a process to 
identify and evaluate potential reasonably available control measures 
that could contribute to expeditious attainment of the PM2.5 
standards in the South Coast nonattainment area. These RACM/RACT 
analyses address control measures for sources of direct 
PM2.5, NOX, SOX, and VOC, which are 
the State's selected attainment plan precursors for the 1997 
PM2.5 standards in the South Coast (see section V.C.3 
below). We describe each agency's efforts below.
a. District's RACM/RACT Analysis and Adopted Control Strategy
    The District's RACM/RACT analysis, which focuses on stationary and 
area source controls, is described in Chapter 6 and Appendix VI of the 
South Coast 2007 AQMP.
    Since the 1970s, the District has adopted stationary source control 
rules that have resulted in significant improvement of air quality in 
the South Coast nonattainment area. When command and control rules were 
no longer within the limitations of economic efficiency, the District 
began using economic incentive approaches with programs such as the 
Surplus Off-Road Opt-In for NOX (SOON) program and the Carl 
Moyer program.18 19 While the District still relies on 
command and control regulations, the District's control strategies are 
now supplemented by market incentive and compliance flexibility 
approaches where appropriate. These regulations and strategies have 
yielded significant emissions reductions from sources under the 
District's jurisdiction. In developing the South Coast 2007 AQMP, the 
District conducted a process to identify RACM for the South Coast that 
involved public meetings to solicit input, evaluation of EPA suggested 
RACM and RACT, and evaluation of other air agencies' regulations. See 
South Coast 2007 AQMP, Appendix VI.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \18\ The Carl Moyer Memorial Air Quality Standards Attainment 
Program (``Carl Moyer Program'') provides incentive grants for 
engines, equipment and other sources of pollution that are cleaner 
than required, providing early or extra emission reductions. 
Eligible projects include cleaner on-road, off-road, marine, 
locomotive and stationary agricultural pump engines. The program 
achieves near-term reductions in emissions of NOX, PM, 
and VOC or reactive organic gas (ROG) which are necessary for 
California to meet its clean air commitments under the SIP.
    \19\ The SOON program provides funding assistance to applicable 
fleets for the purchase of commercially-available low-emission 
heavy-duty engines to achieve near-term reduction of NOX 
emissions from in-use off-road diesel vehicles. All large fleets 
with a total statewide equipment horsepower (hp) over 20,000 hp must 
apply for funding. Fleets below 20,000 hp may voluntarily 
participate in this program.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    To determine which measures would be feasible for the South Coast, 
the District looked at measures implemented in other nonattainment 
areas' plans (including the San Joaquin Valley, the San Francisco Bay 
Area, Sacramento, Ventura, Dallas-Fort Worth, the Houston-Galveston 
area, and by the Lake Michigan Air Directors Consortium, or LADCO), and 
held meetings with CARB, technical experts, local government 
representatives, and the public during development of the South Coast 
2007 AQMP. The District sponsored an AQMP summit, which generated 200 
potential control measures. In addition, the District reviewed the list 
of control measures suggested for consideration in EPA's 
PM2.5 implementation rule. The District also reevaluated all 
82 District rules and regulations. The District then screened the 
identified measures and rejected those that affected few or no sources 
in the South Coast, had already been adopted as rules, or were in the 
process of being adopted. The District evaluated the remaining measures 
using baseline inventories, available control technologies, and 
potential emission reductions as well as whether the measure could be 
implemented on a schedule that would contribute to attainment of the 
PM2.5 standard assuming a 2015 deadline. South Coast 2007 
AQMP, Appendix VI.
    In general, EPA proposes to find that the District's current rules 
and regulations are equivalent to, or more stringent than, those 
developed by other air districts with respect to emissions of 
PM2.5 and PM2.5 precursors. The District is 
exploring several options for reducing emissions further. These include 
the feasibility of lowering emission limits and increasing levels of 
control in order to promote cleaner stationary source technologies; 
lowering the VOC content of coatings and solvents; establishing 
standards and test methods for generic equipment and lowering release 
or leak thresholds; improving leak detection, repair, inspection and 
maintenance; and adding best management practices to rules.
    Based on its RACM/RACT evaluation for stationary and area sources 
under its jurisdiction, the District developed 37 stationary source 
control measures which comprised all measures included in other 
districts' AQMPs, as well as some new innovative measures. The District 
determined that the few available measures that District staff did not 
include would not advance the attainment date or contribute to RFP due 
to the insignificant or unquantifiable emissions reductions that they 
would potentially generate. See South Coast 2007 AQMP, Appendix VI, 
page VI-7. Since submittal of the AQMP in 2007, the District has 
completed action on the majority of

[[Page 41569]]

these rules and submitted them to EPA for approval into the SIP.
    From October 2002 through June 2006, the District adopted 
approximately 17 rules to address its commitment to achieve the 
reductions committed to in the 2003 AQMP for the South Coast. These 
rules included controls on VOC emissions from refineries and chemical 
plants, co-composting operations, architectural coatings, solvent 
cleaning operations, oil and gas production wells, and livestock waste. 
Many of the adopted rules achieved more estimated reductions in VOC, 
NOX and SOX than were expected in the 2003 AQMP. 
A summary of these rules, which are included in the baseline emissions 
estimates for the South Coast 2007 AQMP, is provided in Table 1-2 of 
the South Coast 2007 AQMP. See South Coast 2007 AQMP, Chapter 1, Table 
1-2 and Chapter 4, page 4-6, and Table B-1 in Appendix B of the TSD for 
today's action.
    In addition to the rules adopted for the 2003 AQMP, the District 
has also made new commitments in its South Coast 2007 AQMP to achieve 
further reductions from VOC, NOX, SOX and direct 
PM2.5 sources in the South Coast area. The District 
committed to adopt and submit measures that will achieve the following 
additional emissions reductions: 10.8 tpd NOX, 10.4 tpd VOC, 
2.9 tpd direct PM2.5 and 2.9 tpd SOX.\20\ See 
2011 Progress Report, Appendix E, Table 1. The District expects to meet 
its emissions reductions commitments for each of the pollutants by 
adopting new control measures and programs found in the Table 4-2A of 
the South Coast 2007 AQMP (see South Coast 2007 AQMP, page 4-10 and 
CARB Staff Report on South Coast 2007 AQMP, p. 18), as updated in the 
2011 Progress Report, Appendix E, Tables 2 through 5 and from 
additional actions summarized in the CARB Staff Report on the South 
Coast 2007 AQMP (see CARB Staff Report on South Coast 2007 AQMP, p. 
17). The new control measures and additional actions are estimated to 
achieve more of the District's emission reduction commitments. They 
include new rules to regulate lubricants, consumer products, non-
RECLAIM ovens, dryers and furnaces, space heaters, facility 
modernizations, livestock waste, residential wood burning, and 
commercial cooking. The South Coast 2007 AQMP also identifies 22 
measures (beyond the new control measures and additional actions just 
discussed) for further review, which may also yield additional 
reductions towards the District's commitments. As discussed above, the 
District's commitment is to achieve the estimated total tonnage 
reductions of each pollutant because specific control measures and 
actions as adopted may provide more or less reductions than estimated 
in the South Coast 2007 AQMP.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \20\ CARB uses the term ROG (reactive organic gases) where we 
use the term VOC (volatile organic compounds). We will use the term 
VOC in this notice to refer to both ROG and VOC.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Finally, EPA notes that since the adoption of the South Coast 2007 
AQMP, the District has already adopted and submitted many of the rules 
in the South Coast 2007 AQMP that help fulfill the District's 
enforceable commitments for additional emission reductions of 
NOX, VOC, direct PM2.5 and SOX in the 
South Coast area. Table 3 below summarizes the status of these new 
rules.

                          Table 2--South Coast
           [Annual average day emissions in tons per day] \a\
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                           SIP commitment by 2014
            Pollutant             --------------------------------------
                                    Commitment    Achieved     Balance
------------------------------------------------------------------------
VOC..............................         10.4        14.4         +4.0
NOX..............................         10.8         7.60        -3.2
PM2.5............................          2.9         1.00        -1.9
SOX..............................          2.9         4.01        +1.11
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2011 Progress Report, Appendix F, Table 1. The ``Achieved''
  column in Table 2 reflects District rules submitted to EPA. Table 3
  reflects emissions reductions EPA can credit towards the attainment
  demonstration.


          Table 3--Status of District Short- and Intermediate-Term Control Measures Credited in South Coast 2007 AQMP Attainment Demonstration
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                   Emissions reduction
           Control measure              Rule No.               Title               commitment in South     Emissions reductions         SIP status
                                                                                     Coast 2007 AQMP           achieved \a\
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
BCM-03..............................          445  Woodburning fireplaces and    1.0 tpd PM2.5..........  1.0 tpd PM2.5; 0.44     74 FR 27716, 6/11/09.
                                                    wood stoves.                                           tpd VOC; 0.06 tpd
                                                                                                           NOX; 0.01 tpd SOX.
BCM-05..............................         1138  Underfired charbroilers.....  1.1 tpd PM2.5..........  ......................  66 FR 36170, 7/11/
                                                                                                                                   2001.
CTS-01..............................         1144  Metalworking fluids and       1.9 tpd VOC............  3.9 tpd VOC...........  75 FR 40726, 07/14/10.
                                                    direct-contact lubricants.
CMB-01..............................         1147  NOX reductions from           3.5 tpd NOX............  3.5 tpd NOX...........  75 FR 46845, 08/04/10.
                                                    miscellaneous sources.
CMB-02..............................         2002  Further SOX reductions from   2.9 tpd SOX............  4.0 tpd SOX...........  76 FR 30896, 5/27/11.
                                                    RECLAIM.
FUG-02..............................          461  Emissions Reductions from     3.7 tpd VOC............  VOC reductions          71 FR 18216, 4/11/06.
                                                    Gasoline Transfer and                                  substituted by Rule
                                                    Dispensing Facilities.                                 1143.
FUG-04..............................         1149  Storage Tank and Pipeline     None...................  0.04 tpd VOC..........  74 FR 67821, 12/21/09.
                                                    Cleaning and Degassing.
CMB-03..............................         1111  Further NOX reductions from   0.8 tpd NOX............  0.01 tpd NOX..........  75 FR 46845, 8/4/10.
                                                    space heaters.

[[Page 41570]]

 
MCS-01..............................       1110.2  Liquid and gaseous fuels--    .......................  0.6 tpd NOX; 0.3 tpd    74 FR 18995, 4/27/09.
                                                    stationary ICEs.                                       VOC.
FLX-02..............................  ...........  Refinery pilot program......  0.7 tpd VOC; 0.4 tpd     VOC reductions          ......................
                                                                                  PM2.5.                   substituted by Rule
                                                                                                           1143.
MOB-05..............................         2251  AB923 LDV high emitter        0.8 tpd VOC; 0.4 tpd     ......................  No rule associated
                                                    program.                      NOX.                                             with this measure.
MOB-06..............................  ...........  AB923 MDV high emitter        0.5 tpd VOC; 0.5 tpd     ......................  No rule associated
                                                    program.                      NOX.                                             with this measure.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                         Measures Proposed for EPA Action or Soon to be Proposed for EPA Action
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
MCS-05..............................         1127  Livestock waste.............  0.8 tpd VOC.
MCS-01..............................         1146  NOX from industrial,          1.2 tpd NOX; 0.4 tpd     ......................  Proposed limited
                                                    institutional, & commercial   PM2.5; 2.0 tpd VOC.                              approval/limited
                                                    boilers, steam generators,                                                     disapproval signed
                                                    and process heaters.                                                           June 21, 2011.
MCS-01..............................       1146.1  NOX from small ind, inst, &   .......................  ......................  Proposed limited
                                                    comm'l boilers, steam gens,                                                    approval/limited
                                                    and proc. Htrs.                                                                disapproval signed
                                                                                                                                   June 21, 2011.
CTS-04..............................         1143  Consumer Paint Thinners and   2.1 tpd VOC............  9.7 tpd VOC...........  Proposed approval
                                                    Multi-Purpose Solvents.                                                        signed June 23, 2011.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


 
 
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                             SIP Commitment vs. SIP-Creditable Emissions Reductions
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SIP commitment--PM2.5................  2.9 tpd..............  Total SIP-creditable PM2.5    1.2 tpd.
                                                               reductions.
SIP commitment--NOX..................  10.8 tpd.............  Total SIP-creditable NOX      4.2 tpd.
                                                               reductions.
SIP commitment--VOC..................  10.4 tpd.............  Total SIP-creditable VOC      14.4 tpd.
                                                               reductions.
SIP commitment--SOX..................  2.9 tpd..............  Total SIP-creditable SOX      4.01 tpd.
                                                               reductions.
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
\a\ From 2011 Progress Report, Appendix F, Tables 2-5. EPA can only credit rules that have been adopted,
  submitted to EPA, and approved for credit in the SIP.

b. CARB's RACM Analysis and Adopted Control Strategy
    Source categories for which CARB has primary responsibility for 
reducing emissions in California include most new and existing on- and 
off-road engines and vehicles, motor vehicle fuels, and consumer 
products.
    Given the need for significant emissions reductions from mobile and 
area sources to meet the NAAQS in California nonattainment areas, the 
State of California has been a leader in the development of some of the 
most stringent control measures nationwide for on-road and off-road 
mobile sources and the fuels that power them. In addition, California 
has unique authority under CAA section 209 (subject to a waiver by EPA) 
to adopt and implement new emission standards for many categories of 
on-road vehicles and engines, and new and in-use off-road vehicles and 
engines.
    California's emissions standards have reduced new car emissions by 
99 percent and new truck emissions by 90 percent from uncontrolled 
levels. 2007 State Strategy, p. 37. The State is also working with EPA 
on goods movement activities and is implementing programs to reduce 
emissions from ship auxiliary engines, locomotives, harbor craft and 
new cargo handling equipment. In addition, the State has standards for 
lawn and garden equipment, recreational vehicles and boats, and other 
off-road sources that require newly manufactured equipment to be 80-98% 
cleaner than their uncontrolled counterparts. Id. Finally, the State 
has adopted many measures that focus on achieving reductions from in-
use mobile sources that include more stringent inspection and 
maintenance (I/M) or ``Smog Check'' requirements, truck and bus idling 
restrictions, and various incentive programs.
    Appendix A of the TSD includes a list of all measures adopted by 
CARB between 1990 and the beginning of 2007. These measures, reductions 
from which are reflected in the Plan's baseline inventories, fall into 
two categories: Measures that are subject to a waiver of Federal pre-
emption under CAA section 209 (section 209 waiver measures or waiver 
measures) and those for which the State is not required to obtain a 
waiver (non-waiver measures). EPA allows emission reduction credit for 
measures that are granted a waiver from Federal preemption through the 
CAA section 209 waiver process. See section II.F.4.a.i. of the TSD and 
EPA's final approval of the San Joaquin Valley 1-Hour Ozone Plan at 75 
FR 10420, 10424 (March 8, 2010). Generally, the State's baseline non-
waiver measures have been approved by EPA into the SIP and are fully 
creditable for meeting CAA requirements. See TSD, Appendix A.
    CARB developed its proposed 2007 State Strategy after an extensive 
public consultation process to identify potential SIP measures.\21\ 
From this process, CARB identified and committed to propose 15 new 
defined measures. These measures focus on cleaning up the in-use fleet 
as well as increasing the stringency of emissions standards for a 
number of engine categories, fuels, and consumer products. Many, if not 
most, of these measures are being proposed for

[[Page 41571]]

adoption for the first time anywhere in the nation. They build on 
CARB's already comprehensive program described above that addresses 
emissions from all types of mobile sources through both regulations and 
incentive programs. See Appendix A of the TSD. Table 4 below lists the 
defined measures in the 2007 State Strategy and their current adoption 
and approval status. Table 5 provides the State's current estimate of 
the emissions reductions in the South Coast nonattainment area from 
these measures.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \21\ More information on this public process including 
presentations from the workshops and symposium that preceded the 
adoption of the 2007 State Strategy can be found at http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/2007sip/2007sip.htm.

       Table 4--2007 State Strategy Defined Measures Scheduled for
          Consideration and Current Status (Updated April 2011)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                 Expected action
         State measure                 year            Current status
------------------------------------------------------------------------
                 Defined Measures in 2007 State Strategy
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smog Check Improvements.......  2007-2009........  Elements approved 75
                                                    FR 38023 (July 1,
                                                    2010). \22\
Expanded Vehicle Retirement     2007.............  Adopted CARB June
 (AB118).                                           2009; Bureau of
                                                    Automotive Repair
                                                    September 2010.
Modifications to Reformulated   2007.............  Approved, 75 FR 26653
 Gasoline Program.                                  (May 2, 2010).
Cleaner In-use Heavy Duty       2007, 2008, 2010.  Proposed approval
 Trucks.                                            signed June 29,
                                                    2011.
Auxiliary Ship Cold Ironing     2007-2008........  Adopted December
 and Other Clean Technologies.                      2007.
Cleaner Main Ship Engines and   Fuel: 2008-2011..  Proposed approval
 Fuels.                         Engines: 2008....   signed June 29,
                                                    2011.
Port Truck Modernization......  2007, 2008, 2010.  Adopted December 2007
                                                    and December 2008.
Accelerated Introduction of     2008.............  Implementation 2012.
 Cleaner Locomotives.
Clean Up Existing Harbor        2007, 2010.......  Adopted November
 Crafts.                                            2007, revised June
                                                    2010.
Cleaner In-Use Off-Road         2007, 2010.......  Waiver action
 Engines.                                           pending.
New Emissions Standards for     2013.............  Partial adoption,
 Recreational Boats.                                July 2008;
                                                    additional action
                                                    expected 2013.
Expanded Off-Road Recreational  2013.............  Adopted November
 Vehicle Emissions Standards.                       2008; additional
                                                    action expected
                                                    2013.
Enhanced Vapor Recovery for     2008.              .....................
 Above Ground Storage Tanks.
Additional evaporative          2009, 2013.        .....................
 emissions standards.
Consumer Products Program (I    2008, 2009, 2011.  Phase I approved
 and II).                                           November 4, 2009, 74
                                                    FR 57074; Phase II
                                                    approved May 12,
                                                    2011, 76 FR 27613.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
Sources: 2009 State Strategy Update, p. 23 and 2011 Progress Report,
  Table 1, p. 8. Additional information from http://www.ca.arb.gov.

     
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \22\ California Assembly Bill 2289, passed in 2010, requires the 
Bureau of Automotive Repair to direct older vehicles to high 
performing auto technicians and test stations for inspection and 
certification effective 2013. Reductions shown for the SmogCheck 
program in the 2011 Progress Report do not include reductions from 
AB 2289 improvements. See CARB Progress Report supplement, 
attachment 5.

   Table 5--Currently Creditable Emissions Reductions From Defined Measures in the 2007 State Strategy for the
                             South Coast, as Revised April 2011 (Tons per Day 2014)
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 Direct
                        State measure                            PM2.5         NOX          VOC          SOX
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Smog Check Improvements (BAR)...............................          0.3          2.6          8.6          0
Cleaner In-Use Heavy-Duty Trucks............................          2.6         18.6          3.3          0
Cleaner In-Use Off-Road Equipment (> 25 hp).................          0            0.5          0.1          0
Ship Auxiliary Engine Cold Ironing & Clean Tech.............          0.1          8.1          0.2          0.3
Cleaner Main Ship Engines and Fuel--Main Engines............          3.5         17.6          0.5         37
Clean Up Existing Harbor Craft..............................          0.2          4.1          0.1          0
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2011 Progress Report, Appendix E, pp. 2 and 3. Only defined measures with direct PM2.5, VOC, SOX and/or
  NOX, reductions in the South Coast are shown here.

    In addition to the State's commitments to propose defined new 
measures, the 2007 State Strategy includes an enforceable commitment 
for emissions reductions sufficient, in combination with existing 
measures and the District's commitments, to attain the PM2.5 
NAAQS in the South Coast nonattainment area by the requested attainment 
date of April 5, 2015. For the South Coast, these emission reductions 
commitments are to achieve 152 tpd of NOX, 46 tpd of VOC, 9 
tpd of direct PM2.5, and 20 tpd of SOX (see 2007 
State Strategy, p. 63 and CARB Resolution 07-28, Attachment B, p. 6). 
The nature of this commitment is described in the State Strategy as 
follows:

    ``The total emission reductions from the new measures necessary 
to attain the federal standards are an enforceable State commitment 
in the SIP. While the proposed State Strategy includes estimates of 
the emission reductions from each of the individual new measures, it 
is important to note that the commitment of the State Strategy is to 
achieve the total emission reductions necessary to attain the 
federal standards, which would be the aggregate of all existing and 
proposed new measures combined. Therefore, if a particular measure 
does not get its expected emission reductions, the State still 
commits to achieving the total aggregate emission reductions, 
whether this is realized through additional reductions from the new 
measures or from alternative control measures or incentive programs. 
If actual emission decreases occur in any air basin for which 
emission reduction commitments have been

[[Page 41572]]

made that are greater than the projected emissions reductions from 
the adopted measures in the State Strategy, the actual emission 
decreases may be counted toward meeting ARB's total emission 
reduction commitments.''

CARB Resolution 07-28 (September 27, 2007), Appendix B, p. 3.
c. The Local Jurisdiction's RACM Analysis
    The local jurisdiction's RACM analysis was conducted by the 
metropolitan planning organization (MPO) for the South Coast region, 
the Southern California Association of Governments (SCAG). This 
analysis, which focused on transportation control measures (TCMs), and 
the results of this analysis are described in Appendix IV-C of the 
South Coast 2007 AQMP. The TCMs in the South Coast 2007 AQMP are 
derived from TCM projects in the 2006 SCAG Regional Transportation 
Improvement Program (RTIP). This analysis, described beginning on page 
49 of Appendix IV-C of the South Coast 2007 AQMP, resulted in extensive 
local government commitments to implement programs to reduce auto 
travel and improve traffic flow. South Coast 2007 AQMP page 6-6 and 
Appendix IV-C. SCAG also provided reasoned justifications for any 
measures that it did not adopt. Attachment A to Appendix IV-C contains 
an extensive list of TCMs in process and newly programmed TCMs. The 
enforceable commitment from SCAG and the transportation agencies was to 
fund and implement projects in the first two years of the 2006 Regional 
Transportation Improvement Program (RTIP).
3. Proposed Actions on RACM/RACT Demonstration and Adopted Control 
Strategy
    We propose to find that there are, at this time, no additional 
reasonably available measures that individually or collectively would 
advance attainment of the PM2.5 NAAQS in the South Coast 
nonattainment area by one year or more. This proposal is based on our 
review of potential RACM/RACT in the revised 2007 South Coast AQMP and 
the 2007 State Strategy; the District's and State's adopted control 
strategies, including their commitments to adopt measures and their 
progress in meeting those commitments; and our proposed concurrence 
(discussed below in section V.C.3) with the State's determination that 
SOX, NOX, and VOC are, and ammonia is not, 
attainment plan precursors per 40 CFR 51.1002(c). Therefore, we propose 
to find that the relevant portions of the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the 
2007 State Strategy provide for the implementation of RACM/RACT as 
required by CAA section 172(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1010.
    Because they will strengthen the California SIP, we are also 
proposing to approve, the District's commitments to adopt and implement 
specific control measures on the schedule identified in Tables 2-5 of 
Appendix E in the 2011 Progress Report, to the extent that these 
commitments have not yet been fulfilled, and to achieve specific 
aggregate emissions reductions of direct PM2.5, 
NOX, VOC and SOX by specific years as given in 
Table 1 of the 2011 Progress Report (and Table 2 in today's proposal).
    We are also proposing to approve CARB's commitments to propose 
certain defined measures, as given on Table B-1 in Appendix B of the 
2011 Progress Report, and to achieve total aggregate emissions 
reductions necessary to attain the 1997 PM2.5 standards in 
the South Coast nonattainment area, whether these reductions are 
realized from the new measures, alternative control measures, incentive 
programs, or other actual emissions decreases. See CARB Resolution 07-
28 (September 27, 2007), Appendix B, p. 3. This commitment is to 
aggregate emissions reductions of 152 tpd of NOX, 46 tpd of 
VOC, 9 tpd of direct PM2.5, and 20 tpd of SOX in 
the South Coast by 2014 (see page 20 of the 2009 State Strategy Status 
Report).

C. Attainment Demonstration

1. Requirements for Attainment Demonstration
    CAA section 172 requires a State to submit a plan for each of its 
nonattainment areas that demonstrates attainment of the applicable 
ambient air quality standard as expeditiously as practicable but no 
later than the specified attainment date. Under the PM2.5 
implementation rule, this demonstration should consist of four parts:
    (1) Technical analyses that locate, identify, and quantify sources 
of emissions that are contributing to violations of the 
PM2.5 NAAQS;
    (2) Analyses of future year emissions reductions and air quality 
improvement resulting from already-adopted national, State, and local 
programs and from potential new State and local measures to meet the 
RACT, RACM, and RFP requirements in the area;
    (3) Adopted emissions reduction measures with schedules for 
implementation; and
    (4) Contingency measures required under section 172(c)(9) of the 
CAA.

See 40 CFR 51.1007; 72 FR 20586, at 20605.

    The requirements for the first two parts are described in the 
sections on emissions inventories and RACM/RACT above and in the 
sections on air quality modeling, PM2.5 precursors, 
extension of attainment date, and attainment demonstrations that follow 
immediately below. Requirements for the third and fourth parts are 
described in the sections on the control strategy and the contingency 
measures, respectively.
2. Air Quality Modeling in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
    The procedures for modeling attainment of the PM2.5 
NAAQS as part of an attainment SIP are contained in EPA's ``Guidance on 
the Use of Models and Other Analyses for Demonstrating Attainment of 
Air Quality Goals for the 8-Hour Ozone and PM2.5 NAAQS and 
Regional Haze.'' (Guidance).\23\ A brief description of the modeling 
used to support South Coast's attainment demonstration follows. For 
more detailed information about the modeling, please refer to the TSD 
associated with this rulemaking, which can be found in the docket for 
today's action.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \23\ The guidance is available at http://www.epa.gov/ttn/scram/guidance_sip.htm and in the docket for today's action.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Air quality modeling is used to establish emission attainment 
targets, a combination of emissions of PM2.5 and 
PM2.5 precursors that the nonattainment area can accommodate 
without exceeding the NAAQS, and to assess whether the proposed control 
strategy will result in attainment of the NAAQS by the applicable 
attainment date. Air quality modeling is performed for a base year and 
compared to air quality monitoring data to determine model performance. 
Once the performance is determined to be acceptable, future year 
emission inventory changes are simulated to determine the relationship 
between emission reductions and changes in ambient air quality 
throughout the nonattainment area.
    The attainment demonstration for the South Coast nonattainment area 
is based on the CAMx model using the ``one atmosphere'' approach 
comprised of the carbon bond IV (CB-IV) gas phased chemistry and a 
static two-mode particle size aerosol.\24\ CAMx annual average 
PM2.5 modeling simulations were generated for 2005 and 2014 
baseline emissions scenarios and for a 2014 controlled emissions 
scenario by

[[Page 41573]]

the District. District staff compared the base year model output to 
speciated particulate data measured in 2005 as part of the Multiple Air 
Toxics III (MATES-III) program. Model specifications, such as boundary 
conditions, domain size, and resolution, meet EPA criteria and are 
discussed in the TSD. Model performance for total mass (the sum of 
specific individual species), as well as for specific individual 
species, is adequate and is discussed in the TSD.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \24\ CAMx is the Comprehensive Air Quality Model with 
extensions, an Eulerian photochemical dispersion model that allows 
for integrated ``one-atmosphere'' assessments of gaseous and 
particulate air pollution (ozone, PM2.5, PM10, 
air toxics) over many scales ranging from sub-urban to continental.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The District's attainment analysis follows EPA's guideline 
technique of applying component-specific relative response factors 
(RRF) to monitored data throughout the South Coast nonattainment area. 
A RRF is the ratio of the model's future to current (baseline) 
predictions at a monitor. Future PM2.5 concentrations are 
estimated at existing monitoring sites by multiplying a modeled RRF at 
the grid cell locations of each monitor by the observation-based, 
monitor-specific, ``baseline'' design value. A separate RRF is 
calculated for each of the PM2.5 precursors. Future 
PM2.5 design values were estimated by District staff at 
existing monitoring sites throughout the South Coast nonattainment area 
by multiplying modeled RRFs for each monitor times the observed 
``component-specific design value.'' The future PM2.5 design 
values were then compared to the annual and 24-hour NAAQS to 
demonstrate attainment at each site. The maximum 2014 predicted 
PM2.5 annual design value is 15.0 [mu]g/m\3\ or lower.\25\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \25\ See 40 CFR part 50 Appendix N, 4.1(a). A predicted design 
value of 15.04 [mu]g/m\3\ or lower is considered modeled attainment 
of the annual standard.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    The District also performed the recommended unmonitored area 
analysis and it indicated that there were no additional nonattainment 
problems in unmonitored areas. The future PM2.5 design 
values were also compared to the 24-hour PM2.5 NAAQS to 
demonstrate attainment at each site. The maximum predicted 2014 24-hour 
PM2.5 design value at any site is 56.6 [mu]g/m\3\; this is 
lower than the 24-hour PM2.5 NAAQS of 65 [mu]g/m\3\. EPA 
guidance also recommends the use of supplemental data analyses to 
support the air quality modeling. The District used air quality trends 
and emission inventory trends as ``weight of evidence'' to support the 
air quality modeling for the attainment demonstration.
    The District used its air quality modeling to establish emissions 
reduction targets to be used in developing the control strategy for the 
nonattainment SIP. Once a proposed control strategy was developed, the 
District then used the photochemical modeling to verify that the 
projected emissions reductions would result in attainment of the 1997 
PM2.5 standards throughout the South Coast nonattainment 
area by the target attainment date of 2014. The estimated carrying 
capacities for the South Coast nonattainment area are included in Table 
6.26 27
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \26\ ``Carrying capacity'' is defined as the maximum level of 
emissions that enable the attainment and maintenance of an ambient 
air quality standard for a pollutant. (see South Coast 2007 AQMP, 
page 5-27.)
    \27\ The CARB Staff Report for the South Coast 2007 AQMP 
presents a slightly different emissions carrying capacity which 
relies more heavily on reductions of primary PM2.5 and 
less heavily on reductions of precursors to PM2.5. The 
Staff Report's emission carrying capacity estimates are 
PM2.5--86 tons/day, NOX--460 tons/day, 
SOX--20 tons/day, and VOC--474 tons/day (see CARB Staff 
Report on the South Coast AQMP, page ES-3).

   Table 6--Emissions Carrying Capacity Estimates for the South Coast
                 Nonattainment Area for PM2.5 Attainment
                 [Tons/day, based on planning inventory]
------------------------------------------------------------------------
      PM2.5               NOX                SOX               VOC
------------------------------------------------------------------------
          87                454                 19               469
------------------------------------------------------------------------

    We are proposing to approve the air quality modeling demonstration 
in the South Coast 2007 AQMP as meeting the requirements of the CAA 
consistent with EPA guidance. We provide further discussion in the TSD.
Effect of Inventory Changes on the Air Quality Modeling and Attainment 
Demonstrations
    As discussed above in section V.A., CARB has recently updated the 
inventories for several mobile source categories for both the base and 
future years as well as revised the economic forecasts on which the 
future inventories were based. Ideally, new attainment demonstration 
modeling would be performed to evaluate the effect of these updates and 
revisions; however, remodeling is a substantial undertaking and would 
not necessarily change the basic conclusions of the existing attainment 
demonstration analysis.
    Relative to emissions in the South Coast 2007 AQMP, the decreases 
in the base year 2002 emissions inventory due to the inventory updates 
are about 4 percent for NOX and 5 percent for direct 
PM2.5 emissions. CARB Progress Report supplement, Attachment 
1. For the 2014 attainment target year, the decreases in the projected 
2014 baseline due to both methodology changes (e.g., changes to 
construction equipment emissions factors) and the revised economic 
forecasts are 10 percent for NOX, 2 percent for direct 
PM2.5, 2 percent for VOC, and a 30 percent increase for 
SOX.\28\ The effect of the revisions in the target year as 
compared to the base year are about the same for direct 
PM2.5, and somewhat larger for NOX. The overall 
effect of the inventory revisions is thus to increase the emission 
reductions from base year to attainment year, in a relative sense. 
Likewise, the revisions would tend to make the relative reduction 
factors (factors used to scale the modeling results) lower, decreasing 
the projected PM2.5 concentrations in the attainment year 
and effectively making the attainment demonstration over-estimate the 
level of emissions reductions needed to attain. Based on model 
sensitivity results provided by CARB, EPA estimates that ambient 
concentrations would be slightly lower in the attainment year due to 
the emission inventory revisions. EPA therefore concludes that the 
attainment demonstration remains valid, despite the emission inventory 
changes.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \28\ By 2014, SOX emissions reach the attainment 
target due to adopted State and District rules.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. PM2.5 Precursors Addressed in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
    EPA recognizes NOX, SO2, VOCs, and ammonia as 
the main precursor gases associated with the formation of secondary 
PM2.5 in the ambient air. These gas-phase PM2.5 
precursors undergo chemical reactions in the atmosphere to form 
secondary particulate matter. Formation of secondary PM2.5 
depends on numerous factors including the concentrations of precursors; 
the concentrations of other gaseous reactive species; atmospheric 
conditions including solar radiation, temperature, and relative 
humidity; and the interactions of precursors with preexisting particles 
and with cloud or fog droplets. 72 FR 20586, at 20589.
    As discussed previously, a state must submit emissions inventories 
for each of the four PM2.5 precursor pollutants. 72 FR 
20586, at 20589 and 40 CFR 51.1008(a)(1). However, the overall 
contribution of different precursors to PM2.5 formation and 
the effectiveness of alternative potential control measures will vary 
by area. Thus, the precursors that a state should regulate to attain 
the PM2.5 NAAQS could also vary to some extent from area to 
area. 72 FR 20586, at 20589.

[[Page 41574]]

    In the PM2.5 implementation rule, EPA did not make a 
finding that all potential PM2.5 precursors must be 
controlled in each specific nonattainment area. See 72 FR 20586, at 
20589. Instead, for the reasons explained in the rule's preamble, a 
state must evaluate control measures for sources of SO2 in 
addition to sources of direct PM2.5 in all nonattainment 
areas. 40 CFR 51.1002(c) and (c)(1). A state must also evaluate control 
measures for sources of NOX unless the State and/or EPA 
determine that control of NOX emissions would not 
significantly reduce PM2.5 concentrations in the specific 
nonattainment area. 40 CFR 51.1002(c)(2). In contrast, EPA has 
determined in the PM2.5 implementation rule that a state 
does not need to address controls for sources of VOC and ammonia unless 
the state and/or EPA make a technical demonstration that controls on 
such sources would significantly contribute to reducing 
PM2.5 concentrations in the specific nonattainment area at 
issue. 40 CFR 51.1002(c)(3) and (4). Such a demonstration is required 
``if the administrative record related to development of its SIP shows 
that the presumption is not technically justified for that area.'' 40 
CFR 51.1002(c)(5).
    ``Significantly contributes'' in this context means that a 
significant reduction in emissions of the precursor from sources in the 
area would be projected to provide a significant reduction in 
PM2.5 concentrations in the area. 72 FR 20586 at 20590. 
Although EPA did not establish a quantitative test for determining what 
constitutes a significant change, EPA noted that even relatively small 
reductions in PM2.5 levels are estimated to result in 
worthwhile public health benefits. Id.
    EPA further explained that a technical demonstration to reverse the 
presumption for NOX, VOC, or ammonia in any area could 
consider the emissions inventory, speciation data, modeling 
information, or other special studies such as monitoring of additional 
compounds, receptor modeling, or special monitoring studies. 72 FR 
20586 at 20596-20597. These factors could indicate that the emissions 
or ambient concentration contributions of a precursor, or the 
sensitivity of ambient concentrations to changes in precursor 
emissions, differs for a specific nonattainment area from the 
presumption EPA established for that precursor in the PM2.5 
implementation rule.
    In the South Coast nonattainment area, PM2.5 can be 
directly emitted, such as from road dust, diesel soot, combustion 
products, and other sources (``primary particles''), or formed through 
atmospheric chemical reactions of precursor chemicals (``secondary 
particles''). Examples of secondary particles include sulfates, 
nitrates, and complex carbon compounds formed from reactions of 
NOX, SOX, VOC, and ammonia. The attainment 
demonstration for the South Coast PM2.5 nonattainment area 
addresses ammonium nitrate and ammonium sulfate because they represent 
a dominant fraction of PM2.5 components in this area and are 
formed through secondary reactions of the precursors NOX, 
SOX, VOC and ammonia. The District's analysis indicates that 
SOX reductions followed by directly-emitted PM2.5 
and NOX reductions provide the greatest ambient 
PM2.5 reductions. VOC reductions can also contribute to 
improving ambient PM2.5 concentrations and will occur 
concurrently as a result of the District's 8-hour ozone NAAQS 
strategy.\29\ The PM2.5 implementation rule allows States or 
EPA to evaluate which PM2.5 precursors should be precursors 
for regulatory purposes in a particular nonattainment area, based on 
the facts and circumstances of such area. SCAQMD has elected to 
consider VOCs as regulatory precursors for the purpose of this SIP, 
based on their modeling analysis, which considered the sensitivity of 
PM2.5 formation to VOC emission reduction. EPA agrees that 
the District's determination to consider VOC as a precursor for this 
SIP is appropriate in this nonattainment area.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \29\ See page 5-17 of Chapter 5 of the South Coast 2007 AQMP. We 
approved the South Coast RACT SIP on December 18, 2008 (see 73 FR 
76947) as complying with the relevant CAA requirements for RACT SIPs 
for 8-hour ozone.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Starting in 2011, the PM2.5 implementation rule requires 
that states must also address condensable particulate matter (CPM), 
including estimates of CPM in emissions inventories, modeling, and 
control strategies.
4. Extension of the Attainment Date
    CAA section 172(a)(2) provides that an area's attainment date 
``shall be the date by which attainment can be achieved as 
expeditiously as practicable, but no later than 5 years from the date 
such area was designated nonattainment * * *, except that the 
Administrator may extend the attainment date to the extent the 
Administrator determines appropriate, for a period no greater than 10 
years from the date of designation as nonattainment considering the 
severity of nonattainment and the availability and feasibility of 
pollution control measures.''
    Because the effective date of designations for the 1997 
PM2.5 standards was April 5, 2005 (70 FR 944), the initial 
attainment date for PM2.5 nonattainment areas is as 
expeditiously as practicable but not later than April 5, 2010. For any 
areas that are granted a full five-year attainment date extension under 
section 172, the attainment date would be no later than April 5, 2015.
    Section 51.1004 of the PM2.5 implementation rule 
addresses the attainment date requirement. Section 51.1004(b) requires 
a State to submit an attainment demonstration justifying its proposed 
attainment date and provides that EPA will approve an attainment date 
when we approve that demonstration.
    States that request an extension of the attainment date under CAA 
section 172(a)(2) must provide sufficient information to show that 
attainment by April 5, 2010 is impracticable due to the severity of the 
nonattainment problem in the area and the lack of available and 
feasible control measures to provide for faster attainment. 40 CFR 
51.1004(b). States must also demonstrate that all RACM and RACT for the 
area are being implemented to bring about attainment of the standard by 
the most expeditious alternative date practicable for the area. 72 FR 
20586, at 20601.
    For urban areas nationwide, the South Coast nonattainment area has 
the second highest average annual mean PM2.5 concentration 
(ranking only behind the San Joaquin Valley in California for the 1997 
PM2.5 standards). Annual PM2.5 concentrations 
recorded over the last few years at the Mira Loma monitoring site 
continue to exceed the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS.\30\ The 
PM2.5 problem in the South Coast is complex, caused by both 
direct PM2.5 and secondary PM2.5, and compounded 
by the topographical and meteorological conditions for the area that 
are very conducive to the formation and concentration of 
PM2.5 particles. South Coast 2007 AQMP, chapter 4.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \30\ See footnote 2.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    As discussed in section V.B.2. above, the District's strategy for 
attaining the PM2.5 standard relies on reductions of 
directly-emitted PM2.5 as well as the PM2.5 
precursor pollutants NOX, VOC, and SOX. The South 
Coast nonattainment area needs significant reductions in 
PM2.5, NOX, VOC, and SOX to 
demonstrate attainment. Further reducing these pollutants is 
challenging, because the State and District have already adopted 
stringent control measures for most

[[Page 41575]]

sources of direct PM2.5, NOX, VOC, and 
SOX emissions. Moreover, attainment in the South Coast 
nonattainment area depends on emissions reductions that offset the 
emissions increases associated with projected increases in population, 
economic growth, and goods movement.
    The direct PM2.5 reductions are achieved primarily from 
open burning and residential wood combustion control measures. These 
types of control measures present special implementation challenges 
(e.g., the large number of individuals subject to regulation and the 
difficulty of applying conventional technological control solutions). 
NOX reductions come largely from District rules for fuel 
combustion sources, and from the State's mobile source rules. VOC 
reductions come from District rules governing the petroleum industry, 
as well as consumer products rules at both the State and local level. 
SOX reductions identified in the plan come from District 
rules such as RECLAIM, and State measures related to ships.
    Because of the necessity of obtaining additional emissions 
reductions from these source categories in the South Coast 
nonattainment area and the need to conduct significant public outreach 
if applicable control approaches are to be effective, EPA agrees with 
the District and CARB that the South Coast 2007 AQMP reflects 
expeditious implementation of the programs during the 2008-2014 time 
frame. EPA also agrees that the implementation schedule for enhanced 
stationary source controls is expeditious, taking into account the time 
necessary for purchase and installation of the required control 
technologies. The District's control strategies are discussed in 
greater detail in Chapter 4 of the South Coast 2007 AQMP, and in 
section V.B.2 above.
    In addition, the State has adopted standards for many categories of 
on-road and off-road vehicles and engines, gasoline and diesel fuels, 
as well as improvements to California's vehicle inspection and 
maintenance program, and programs requiring the retrofitting and 
replacement of in-use trucks, buses, and off-road equipment. The State 
is implementing these rules and programs as expeditiously as 
practicable, and it is not feasible to accelerate the schedule for new 
emissions standards under the State and Federal mobile source control 
programs.
    EPA also expects that CARB and the District will continue to 
investigate opportunities to accelerate progress as new control 
opportunities arise, and that the agencies will promptly adopt and 
expeditiously implement any new measures found to be feasible in the 
future.
    As discussed in section V.B.3 above, we are proposing to approve 
the RACM/RACT demonstration in the South Coast 2007 AQMP. As discussed 
below in section V.C.6., we are also proposing to approve the 
attainment demonstration in the SIP. Based on these proposed approvals, 
EPA is proposing to grant an extension of the attainment date for the 
1997 PM2.5 standards in the South Coast to April 5, 2015 
pursuant to CAA section 172(b)(2) and 40 CFR 51.1004(b).
5. Attainment Demonstration
    Table 7 below summarizes the reductions that are relied on in the 
South Coast 2007 AQMP to demonstrate attainment by April 5, 2015.

Table 7--Summary of Emissions Reduction Progress for South Coast's PM2.5 Attainment Demonstration (Tons per Day,
                                            tpd), Updated April 2011
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        NOX             VOC        Direct PM2.5         SOX
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2002 baseline (2011 SIP Revision, p. 9..........            1093             844              99              53
2014 attainment targets (ARB staff Report for                460             474              86              20
 South Coast 2007 AQMP) *.......................
2014 baseline (2011 SIP Revision, Appendix E, p.             589             518              95              61
 2) **..........................................
2014 remaining emissions after ``adopted                     530             485              87              20
 controls'' (2011 SIP Revision, Appendix E, p.
 2) ***.........................................
Remaining emissions reduction/enforceable               70 (11%)         11 (3%)          1 (8%)            0 0%
 commitment ****................................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
* The attainment targets have not changed from the November 22, 2010 proposal.
** The 2014 baseline is revised to reflect new estimates which take into account the impact of the economic
  recession on and changes in inventory methodologies for diesel trucks, goods movement and construction
  equipment. See 2011 Progress Report, Appendix E, page 2, ``South Coast Air Basin 2014 Progress to Date on ARB
  Rules'' table, ``New 2014 Baseline'' numbers.
*** The 2014 remaining emissions number is what remains after crediting the reductions from ``adopted
  controls.'' By ``adopted controls'' we mean State or district control measures that EPA has approved or
  proposed to approve into the SIP, or state mobile source measures that are subject to a CAA section 209
  waiver. See section V.B.2.b of this notice. In separate actions, EPA has recently proposed to approve several
  of the measures listed in the 2011 Progress Report SIP Revision, Appendix E tables (e.g., CARB's diesel truck
  rules and the Ocean-going Vessels fuel rule).
**** This row reflects the State's aggregate emissions reduction commitment, including the 10 tpd NOX federal
  assignment. See 2011 Progress Report, p. 5.

    As shown in this table, the majority of the emissions reductions 
that the State projects are needed for PM2.5 attainment in 
the South Coast by April 5, 2015 come from baseline reductions. These 
baseline reductions include not only the benefit of numerous adopted 
District and State measures which generally have been approved by EPA 
either through the SIP process or the CAA section 209 waiver process 
but also the effect of the recent economic recession and revised 
emission factors and activity data on projected future inventories. See 
2011 Progress Report, Appendix E and Appendices A and B of the TSD. The 
remaining reductions needed for attainment are to be achieved by the 
District's and CARB's commitments to reduce emissions in the South 
Coast nonattainment area. Since the submittal of the South Coast 2007 
AQMP and the 2007 State Strategy, SCAQMD and CARB have adopted measures 
(summarized in Table 8 below) that can be credited towards reducing the 
aggregate emissions reductions in the enforceable commitments.
a. Enforceable Commitments
    As shown above, measures already adopted by the District and CARB 
(both prior to and as part of the South Coast 2007 AQMP) provide the 
majority of emissions reductions the State projects are needed to 
demonstrate attainment. The balance of the needed reductions is in the 
form of enforceable commitments by the District and CARB.
    The CAA allows approval of enforceable commitments that are limited 
in scope where circumstances exist that warrant the use of such 
commitments in place of adopted

[[Page 41576]]

measures.\31\ Once EPA determines that circumstances warrant 
consideration of an enforceable commitment, EPA considers three factors 
in determining whether to approve the CAA requirement that relies on 
the enforceable commitment: (a) Does the commitment address a limited 
portion of the CAA requirement; (b) is the state capable of fulfilling 
its commitment; and (c) is the commitment for a reasonable and 
appropriate period of time.\32\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \31\ Commitments approved by EPA under section 110(k)(3) of the 
CAA are enforceable by EPA and citizens under, respectively, 
sections 113 and 304 of the CAA. In the past, EPA has approved 
enforceable commitments and courts have enforced these actions 
against states that failed to comply with those commitments: See, 
e.g., American Lung Ass'n of N.J. v. Kean, 670 F. Supp. 1285 (D.N.J. 
1987), aff'd, 871 F.2d 319 (3rd Cir. 1989); NRDC, Inc. v. N.Y. State 
Dept. of Env. Cons., 668 F. Supp. 848 (S.D.N.Y. 1987); Citizens for 
a Better Env't v. Deukmejian, 731 F. Supp. 1448, recon. granted in 
par, 746 F. Supp. 976 (N.D. Cal. 1990); Coalition for Clean Air v. 
South Coast Air Quality Mgt. Dist., No. CV 97-6916-HLH, (C.D. Cal. 
Aug. 27, 1999). Further, if a state fails to meet its commitments, 
EPA could make a finding of failure to implement the SIP under CAA 
Section 179(a), which starts an 18-month period for the State to 
correct the non-implementation before mandatory sanctions are 
imposed. CAA section 110(a)(2)(A) provides that each SIP ``shall 
include enforceable emission limitations and other control measures, 
means or techniques * * * as well as schedules and timetables for 
compliance, as may be necessary or appropriate to meet the 
applicable requirement of the Act.'' Section 172(c)(6) of the Act, 
which applies to nonattainment SIPs, is virtually identical to 
section 110(a)(2)(A). The language in these sections of the CAA is 
quite broad, allowing a SIP to contain any ``means or techniques'' 
that EPA determines are ``necessary or appropriate'' to meet CAA 
requirements, such that the area will attain as expeditiously as 
practicable, but no later than the designated date. Furthermore, the 
express allowance for ``schedules and timetables'' demonstrates that 
Congress understood that all required controls might not have to be 
in place before a SIP could be fully approved.
    \32\ The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Fifth Circuit upheld 
EPA's interpretation of CAA sections 110(a)(2)(A) and 172(c)(6) and 
the Agency's use and application of the three factor test in 
approving enforceable commitments in the 1-hour ozone SIP for 
Houston-Galveston. BCCA Appeal Group et al. v. EPA et al., 355 F.3d 
817 (5th Cir. 2003).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    With respect to the South Coast 2007 AQMP and 2007 State Strategy, 
circumstances warrant the consideration of enforceable commitments as 
part of the attainment demonstration for the South Coast nonattainment 
area. As shown in Table 7 above, the majority of emission reductions 
that are needed to demonstrate attainment and RFP in the South Coast 
nonattainment area come from rules and regulations that were adopted 
prior to the AQMP's submittal in November 2007, i.e., they come from 
the baseline measures.
    As a result of these already-adopted State and District measures, 
most sources in the South Coast nonattainment area were already subject 
to stringent rules prior to the development of the 2007 State Strategy 
and the South Coast 2007 AQMP, leaving fewer and more technologically 
challenging opportunities to reduce emissions. In the South Coast 2007 
AQMP and the 2009 revisions to the 2007 State Strategy, the District 
and CARB identified potential control measures that could achieve the 
additional emissions reductions needed for attainment. However, the 
timeline needed to develop, adopt, and implement these measures went 
well beyond the April 5, 2008 \33\ CAA deadline to submit the 
PM2.5 plan. As discussed above and below, since 2007, the 
District and State have made progress in adopting measures to meet 
their commitments, but have not yet completely fulfilled them. Given 
these circumstances, the 2007 AQMP and the 2007 State Strategy's 
reliance on enforceable commitments is warranted. We now consider the 
three factors EPA uses to determine whether the use of enforceable 
commitments in lieu of adopted measures to meet CAA planning 
requirements is approvable.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \33\ The 2007 State Strategy and the South Coast 2007 AQMP were 
developed to address both the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS and the 
1997 8-hour ozone NAAQS. The 8-hour ozone SIPs were due in November 
2007, and the development and adoption of these plans was timed to 
coordinate with this submittal date. 2007 State Strategy, p. 1, and 
South Coast 2007 AQMP, p. ES-3.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

i. The Commitment Represents a Limited Portion of Required Reductions
    For the first factor, we look to see if the commitment addresses a 
limited portion of a statutory requirement, such as the amount of 
emissions reductions needed in a nonattainment area.
    As shown in Table 7, the remaining portion of the enforceable 
commitments in the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the revised 2007 State 
Strategy are 70 tpd NOX, 11 tpd VOC and 1 tpd direct 
PM2.5 after accounting for measures that are either approved 
or proposed for approval and revisions to the future year baseline 
inventories resulting from changes to the plan's economic forecasts and 
other factors. When compared to the total reductions needed by 2014 for 
PM2.5 attainment in the South Coast nonattainment area on a 
per-pollutant basis, these remaining commitments represent 
approximately 11 percent of the NOX reductions, 3 percent of 
the VOC reductions and 8 percent of the direct PM2.5 
reductions needed to attain the 1997 PM2.5 standards in the 
South Coast nonattainment area.
    We find that the reductions remaining as enforceable commitments in 
the 2007 AQMP and the 2007 State Strategy represent a limited portion 
of the total emissions reductions needed to meet the statutory 
requirement for attainment in the South Coast nonattainment area and 
therefore satisfy the first factor. Overall, the level of reductions 
remaining as commitments is approximately within the 10 percent range 
that EPA has historically accepted in approving attainment 
demonstrations.\34\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \34\ See, for example, our approval of the SJV PM10 
Plan at 69 FR 30005 (May 26, 2004), the SJV 1-hour ozone plan at 75 
FR 10420 (March 8, 2010), and the Houston-Galveston 1-hour ozone 
plan at 66 FR 57160 (November 14, 2001).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

ii. The State is Capable of Fulfilling Its Commitment
    For the second factor, we consider whether the State and District 
are capable of fulfilling their commitments. As discussed above, CARB 
has adopted and submitted a 2009 State Strategy Status Report and a 
2011 Progress Report, which update and revise the 2007 State Strategy. 
These reports show that CARB has made significant progress in meeting 
its enforceable commitments for the South Coast and several other 
nonattainment areas in California. Additional ongoing programs that 
address locomotives, recreational boats, and other measures have yet to 
be quantified but are expected to reduce NOX and direct 
PM2.5 emissions in the South Coast by 2014. See 2011 
Progress Report, Appendix E, page 2.
    The District has already exceeded its commitment for reducing VOC 
and SOX emissions and is working to meet the commitment to 
reduce NOX and directly emitted PM2.5. See Tables 
2 and 3. The District is also continuing to work to identify and adopt 
additional measures that will reduce emissions.
    Beyond the rules discussed above, both CARB and the District have 
well-funded incentive grant programs to reduce emissions from the on- 
and off-road engine fleets. Reductions from several of these programs 
have yet to be quantified and/or credited in the attainment 
demonstration. Finally, we note that the South Coast has experienced 
significant improvements in its PM2.5 air quality in the 
past few years.
    Given the evidence of the State's and District's efforts to date 
and their continuing efforts to reduce emissions, we find that the 
State and District are capable of meeting their enforceable commitments 
to achieve the necessary reductions needed to attain the 1997 
PM2.5 standards in the South Coast nonattainment area by its 
proposed attainment date of April 5, 2015.

[[Page 41577]]

iii. The Commitment is for a Reasonable and Appropriate Period of Time
    For the third and final factor, we consider whether the commitment 
is for a reasonable and appropriate period of time.
    In order to meet the commitments to reduce emissions to the levels 
needed to attain the 1997 PM2.5 standards in the South Coast 
nonattainment area, the South Coast 2007 AQMP and the 2007 State 
Strategy included ambitious rule development, adoption, and 
implementation schedules, which both the District and CARB have 
substantially met. See 2011 Progress Report, p. 9. EPA considers these 
schedules to provide sufficient time to achieve by 2014 the few 
remaining reductions needed to attain by the proposed attainment date 
of April 5, 2015. We, therefore, conclude that the third factor is 
satisfied.
b. Federal Reductions
    As discussed in our November 2010 proposal and as shown in Table 7, 
the South Coast 2007 AQMP assigns 10 tons per day of NOX 
reductions to the Federal government. However, because the CAA does not 
authorize a State to assign responsibility to the Federal government 
for meeting SIP requirements, we cannot accept the 10 tpd 
NOX emissions reductions emissions reductions the District 
and State assigned to the Federal government in the South Coast 2007 
AQMP.
    The District has further addressed the federal assignment by 
committing to an additional reduction of 1 tpd NOX (see 2011 
Progress Report, Appendix F, p. 5 and SCAQMD Governing Board Resolution 
11-9, March 4, 2011). In addition, CARB has committed to achieve the 
remaining portion of the federal assignment in the 2011 Progress Report 
and includes it in the remaining commitment of 70 tpd of 
NOX. (See 2011 Progress Report, p. 5, and CARB Executive 
Order S-11-010.) As we stated in our November 2010 proposal, we are not 
accepting the 10 tpd NOX federal assignment as the CAA does 
not allow for such assignment. We are proposing, however, to approve 
the State's and District's commitments to achieve the emissions 
reductions previously attributed to the federal government.
6. Proposed Action on the Attainment Demonstration
    In order to approve a SIP's attainment demonstration, EPA must make 
several findings and approve the plan's proposed attainment date.
    First, we must find that the demonstration's technical bases, 
including the emissions inventories and air quality modeling, are 
adequate. As discussed above in section V.A and V.C.2, we are proposing 
to approve both the emissions inventories and the air quality modeling 
on which the South Coast 2007 AQMP's attainment demonstration and other 
provisions are based.
    Second, we must find that the SIP submittal provides for 
expeditious attainment through the implementation of all RACM and RACT. 
As discussed above in section V.B, we are proposing to approve the 
RACM/RACT demonstration in the South Coast 2007 AQMP.
    Third, EPA must find that the emissions reductions that are relied 
on for attainment are creditable. As discussed in section V.C.5, the 
South Coast 2007 AQMP relies principally on adopted and approved/waived 
rules to achieve the emissions reductions needed to attain the 1997 
PM2.5 standards in the South Coast nonattainment area by 
April 5, 2015. The balance of the reductions is currently in the form 
of enforceable commitments that account for 11% of the NOX, 
8% of the direct PM2.5, and 3% of the VOC emission 
reductions needed from 2002 levels for attainment. See Table 7.
    EPA has previously accepted enforceable commitments in lieu of 
adopted control measures in attainment demonstrations when 
circumstances warrant it and the commitments meet three criteria. As 
discussed above in section V.C.5, we find that circumstances here 
warrant the consideration of enforceable commitments and that the three 
criteria are met: (1) Both the State and the District have demonstrated 
their capability to meet their commitments, (2) the commitments 
constitute a limited portion of the required emissions reductions, and 
(3) the commitments are for an appropriate timeframe. Based on these 
conclusions, we propose to allow the State to rely on these limited 
enforceable commitments in its attainment demonstration.
    Finally, for a PM2.5 nonattainment area that cannot 
attain within five years of its designation as nonattainment, EPA must 
grant an extension of the attainment date in order to approve the 
attainment demonstration for the area. As discussed above in section 
V.C.4, we propose to determine that a five-year extension of the 
attainment date is appropriate given the nonattainment problem in the 
South Coast nonattainment area and the availability and feasibility of 
control measures and, therefore, to grant the State's request to extend 
the attainment date in the South Coast nonattainment area to April 5, 
2015. For the foregoing reasons, we are proposing to approve the 
attainment demonstration in the South Coast 2007 AQMP.

D. Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration

1. Requirements for Reasonable Further Progress
    CAA Section 172(c)(2) requires that plans for nonattainment areas 
shall provide for reasonable further progress (RFP). RFP is defined in 
section 171(1) as ``such annual incremental reductions in emissions of 
the relevant air pollutant as are required by this part or may 
reasonably be required by the Administrator for the purpose of ensuring 
attainment of the applicable [NAAQS] by the applicable date.''
    The PM2.5 implementation rule requires submittal of an 
RFP plan at the same time as the attainment demonstration for any area 
for which the State seeks an extension of the attainment date beyond 
2010. For areas for which the state requests an attainment date 
extension to 2015, such as the South Coast nonattainment area, the RFP 
plan must demonstrate that in the applicable milestone years of 2009 
and 2012, emissions in the area will be at a level consistent with 
generally linear progress in reducing emissions between the base year 
and the attainment year. 40 CFR 51.1009(d). States may demonstrate this 
by showing that emissions for each milestone year are roughly 
equivalent to benchmark emission levels for direct PM2.5 
emissions and each PM2.5 attainment plan precursor addressed 
in the attainment plan. The steps for determining the benchmark 
emissions levels to demonstrate generally linear progress are given in 
the PM2.5 implementation rule in 40 CFR 51.1009(f).
    The RFP plan must describe the control measures that provide for 
meeting the reasonable further progress milestones for the area, the 
timing of implementation of those measures, and the expected reductions 
in emissions of direct PM2.5 and PM2.5 attainment 
plan precursors. 40 CFR 51.1009(c).
2. Reasonable Further Progress Demonstration in the South Coast 2007 
AQMP
    CARB provided an updated and revised RFP demonstration for the 
South Coast nonattainment area in Appendix C of the 2011 Progress 
Report.

[[Page 41578]]

The demonstration addresses direct PM2.5, NOX, 
VOC and SOX and uses the 2002 annual average day inventory 
as the base year inventory and 2014 as the attainment year. The revised 
South Coast PM2.5 RFP demonstration is summarized Table 8 
below.
    As discussed above, the District's modeling demonstration indicated 
that for attainment of the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS, SOX 
reductions are the most effective, followed by direct PM2.5, 
and then NOX and VOC. Therefore, the District's proposed 
control strategy maximizes reductions of direct PM2.5 and 
SOX to the extent possible.

                                        Table 8--Revised RFP Calculations
                                          [Tons per average annual day]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                        NOX             VOC        Direct PM2.5         SOX
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2002 baseline inventory (tpd)...................            1093             844              99              53
Annual percentage change needed to show linear              4.87             3.7            1.01            5.35
 progress (%)...................................
Annual emissions reduction representing 1 year's            52.8            30.8             1.1             2.8
 worth of RFP...................................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      2009
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benchmark emissions level (tpd).................             724             628              91              34
Revised projected controlled level (tpd)........             677             563              89              43
Emissions above/below benchmark emissions level              -47             -65              -2               9
 (tpd)\a\.......................................
Percent above/below benchmark emissions level...             -6%            -10%             -2%            +26%
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                      2012
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Benchmark emissions level (tpd).................             566             534              88              26
Revised projected controlled emissions level                 582             514              89              26
 (tpd)..........................................
Emissions above/below benchmark emissions level               16             -20               1               0
 (tpd)..........................................
Percent above/below benchmark emissions level              +2.8%             -4%             +1%              0%
 (%)............................................
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2011 Progress Report, Appendix C, Table C-2.
\a\ A ``-'' value in the ``projected shortfall'' cell means the target has been exceeded. A bold italicized
  value indicates a shortfall.

3. Proposed Action on the RFP Demonstration
    EPA has reviewed the revised RFP demonstration in the 2011 Progress 
Report and has determined that it was prepared consistent with 
applicable EPA regulations and policies. See Section II.H of the TSD. 
As can be seen from Table 8 above, controlled emissions levels for 
NOX, direct PM2.5 and VOC were below the 
benchmarks for 2009, demonstrating that the South Coast nonattainment 
area met its RFP targets for that year for those pollutants. The table 
shows that the area has a shortfall of 9 tpd of SOX in 2009. 
For 2012, the projected controlled emissions levels for direct 
PM2.5 and NOX are only slightly above the 
benchmark (by about 1%) and the projected controlled levels for VOC and 
SOX are below or at the benchmarks. We find that, overall, 
these projected controlled emissions levels represent generally linear 
progress for 2012.
    Based on our evaluation, which is summarized above and discussed in 
detail in section II.H. of the TSD, and our proposed concurrence 
(discussed above in Section V.C.3) with the State's determination that 
NOX, VOC, and SOX are attainment plan precursors 
and ammonia is not an attainment plan precursor per 40 CFR 51.1002(c), 
we propose to find that the South Coast 2007 AQMP provides for 
reasonable further progress as required by CAA section 172(c)(2) and 40 
CFR 51.1009 and that the South Coast nonattainment area has met its 
2009 RFP benchmarks.\35\
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \35\ As discussed above in section V.A., CARB has recently 
updated the inventories for several mobile source categories and 
estimates that these updates would reduce, if incorporated into 
those inventories, the Plan's 2002 base year NOX 
inventory by approximately 4 percent and the direct PM2.5 
inventory by approximately 5 percent. CARB Progress Report 
Supplement, Attachment 1. EPA evaluated the potential impact of 
revising the 2002 base year inventories on the RFP demonstration and 
found that the Plan would continue to show the RFP. See Section 
II.H. of the TSD.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

E. Contingency Measures

1. Requirements for Contingency Measures
    Under CAA section 172(c)(9), all PM2.5 attainment plans 
must include contingency measures to be implemented if an area fails to 
meet RFP (RFP contingency measures) and contingency measures to be 
implemented if an area fails to attain the PM2.5 NAAQS by 
the applicable attainment date (attainment contingency measures). These 
contingency measures must be fully adopted rules or control measures 
that are ready to be implemented quickly without significant additional 
action by the State. 40 CFR 51.1012. They must also be measures not 
relied on in the plan to demonstrate RFP or attainment and should 
provide SIP-creditable emissions reductions equivalent to one year of 
RFP. Finally, the SIP should contain trigger mechanisms for the 
contingency measures and specify a schedule for their implementation. 
72 FR 20586, p. 20642.
    Contingency measures can include Federal measures and local 
measures already scheduled for implementation that provide emissions 
reductions in excess of those needed to provide for RFP or expeditious 
attainment. EPA has approved numerous SIPs under this interpretation. 
See, for example, 62 FR 15844 (April 3, 1997) direct final rule 
approving Indiana ozone SIP revision; 62 FR 66279 (December 18, 1997), 
final rule approving Illinois ozone SIP revision; 66 FR 30811 (June 8, 
2001), direct final rule approving Rhode Island ozone SIP revision; 66 
FR 586 (January 3, 2001), final rule approving District of Columbia, 
Maryland, and Virginia ozone SIP revisions; and 66 FR 634 (January 3, 
2001), final rule approving Connecticut ozone SIP revision. The State 
may use the same measures for both RFP and attainment contingency if 
the measures will provide reductions in the relevant years; however, 
should measures be triggered for failure to make RFP, the State would 
need to submit replacement contingency measures for attainment 
purposes.
2. Contingency Measures in the South Coast 2007 AQMP
    The attainment plan for the South Coast nonattainment area includes

[[Page 41579]]

contingency measures to be implemented if the area fails to attain by 
its attainment date or fails to meet RFP requirements. The contingency 
measures for the South Coast nonattainment area are described in 
Chapter 9 of the South Coast 2007 AQMP and discussed in more detail in 
Appendix IV-A, section 2 of the AQMP. They are described below.
    The South Coast 2007 AQMP describes the contingency measures in the 
following way: ``Although implementation of these measures is expected 
to reduce emissions, there are issues that limit the viability of these 
measures as AQMP control measures at this time. Issues surrounding 
these measures include, but are not limited to availability of District 
resources to implement and enforce the measure, cost-effectiveness of 
the measure, potential adverse environmental impacts, potential 
economic impacts, effectiveness of emissions reductions, and 
availability of methods to quantify emissions reductions.'' South Coast 
2007 AQMP, page 9-1.
    The South Coast 2007 AQMP does not calculate the emissions 
reductions that are equivalent to one year's worth of RFP. Based on 
information in the plan, we have calculated one year's worth of RFP to 
be 1.1 tpd of direct PM2.5, 52.8 tpd of NOX, 30.8 
tpd of VOC, and 2.8 tpd of SOX. See Section II.I of the TSD.
    The 2011 Progress Report adds language indicating that the trigger 
for implementation of the contingency measures is nonattainment of the 
PM2.5 standard by April 5, 2015. (See 2011 Progress Report, 
Appendix F, page (5)) Additional information provided by CARB indicates 
some reductions are available for attainment contingency measures. See 
CARB Progress Report Supplement, Attachment 2, dated May 18, 2011, in 
the docket for today's action.
    The South Coast 2007 AQMP and the 2011 Progress Report contained 
the following contingency measures.
    CTY-01--Offsetting potential emissions increase due to change in 
natural gas specifications--This proposed contingency measure requires 
RECLAIM facilities that use natural gas of a quality that creates more 
emissions to offset these emissions for all pollutants. The measure is 
listed as a ``Remaining 2003 AQMP Revision Control Measure'' and thus 
was relied on in the 2003 AQMP for attainment. In addition, the 
reductions are not quantified, and may be zero, because the proposed 
measure may only reduce future emissions increases rather than provide 
net reductions. The measure is not triggered by failure to meet RFP or 
attainment and there is no defined implementation schedule. For these 
reasons, this proposed measure does not meet CAA requirements for 
contingency measures.
    CTY-02--Clean Air Act emission fees for major stationary sources--
This proposed contingency measure would use fees generated from the 
District's Rule 317, Clean Air Act Nonattainment Fees, to achieve 
emissions reductions. The implementation of Rule 317 is triggered by a 
failure of the South Coast to attain the 1-hour standard by its 
applicable attainment date (which occurred on November 15, 2010) and 
not by any failure to make RFP or to attain the PM2.5 NAAQS, 
a requirement for contingency measures for PM2.5 SIPs. South 
Coast Rule 317 (a fee equivalency program and demonstration) was 
adopted on February 4, 2011 and submitted to EPA for approval on April 
22, 2011. There is no implementation schedule provided for this 
contingency measure, and the AQMP does not quantify the reductions 
associated with this measure. For these reasons, this proposed measure 
does not meet CAA requirements for contingency measures.
    CTY-03--Banning pre-Tier 3 off-road diesel engines on High 
Pollution Advisory (HPA) days--This proposed contingency measure would 
complement a CARB rule which proposed to establish declining fleet 
average emissions levels for off-road equipment over 25 horsepower 
(hp). The District proposed a complementary measure, SC-OFFRD-1, that 
would ban the use of pre-Tier 3 off-road diesel engines after 2023 on 
HPA days should the South Coast nonattainment area fail to meet the 8-
hour ozone standard. This proposed contingency measure would require 
additional rulemaking at the District level, as it is not currently 
adopted. It also would be implemented too late in time to provide for 
RFP or contingency reductions for PM2.5 RFP or attainment. 
In addition, the AQMP does not quantify the reductions associated with 
this measure. For these reasons, this proposed measure does not meet 
CAA requirements for contingency measures.
    CTY-04--Request CARB to accelerate State measure implementation--
This proposed contingency measure (which could function as both an RFP 
and an attainment contingency measure), requires the District's 
Governing Board to adopt a resolution requesting CARB to accelerate the 
adoption and/or implementation of any remaining control measures that 
have not yet been adopted or fully implemented by one year. South Coast 
2007 AQMP, page 9-3.
    Under CAA section 172(c)(9) and EPA's policies interpreting this 
section, contingency measures must require minimal additional 
rulemaking by the State and take effect within a few months of a 
failure to make RFP or to attain.\36\ This proposed contingency measure 
would require additional rulemaking at the District level and 
potentially substantial and lengthy additional rulemaking at the State 
level to be implemented. There is no trigger mechanism or 
implementation schedule provided, and the AQMP does not quantify the 
reductions associated with this measure. For these reasons, this 
proposed measure does not meet CAA requirements for contingency 
measures.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \36\ See ``State Implementation Plans; General Preamble for the 
Implementation of Title I of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 
1990,'') 57 FR 13498, at 13512 (April 16, 1992).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    Post-Attainment Year Emissions Reductions. Excess reductions from 
CARB mobile source measures in 2015/2016 do not fully address the 
contingency measure requirement for the PM2.5 attainment 
year. There is no calculation of the emissions reductions equivalent of 
one year's work of RFP in the South Coast 2007 AQMP.
    CARB's 2011 Progress Report included calculations for the 
reductions associated with the existing CARB mobile source control 
program for 24 tpd of NOX and 13 tpd of VOC in the year 
after attainment. However, CARB's mobile source measures do not provide 
sufficient reductions to meet one year's worth of RFP, based on the 
information provided in the 2011 Progress Report (see 2011 Progress 
Report, Appendix F, p. 3, and CARB Progress Report supplement, 
Attachment 2; therefore, post-attainment-year emissions reductions do 
not meet the CAA contingency measure requirement.

[[Page 41580]]



                            Table 9--Summary of Reductions From Contingency Measures
                                          [Tons per average annual day]
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                 PM2.5         NOX          VOC          SOX
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Excess reductions in the RFP demonstration that are                   0            0            0            0
 available to meet the 2012 RFP contingency requirements
 (excess reduction in the 2012 RFP demonstration)...........
New 2015 reductions available to meet the attainment                  0           24           13            0
 contingency requirement....................................
Reductions equivalent to 1-year's worth of RFP..............          1.1         52.8         30.8          2.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: 2011 Progress Report (see 2011 Progress Report, Appendix F, p. 3.

3. Proposed Action on the Contingency Measures
    We are not evaluating the provisions in the South Coast 2007 AQMP 
that address contingency measures for failure to meet the 2009 RFP 
benchmarks. Information in the 2011 Progress Report shows that South 
Coast met its 2009 benchmarks for direct PM2.5, 
NOX, and VOC. See 2011 Progress Report, Appendix C, Table C-
2. SOX emissions were higher than the linear benchmark, but 
were corrected by the 2012 linear benchmark. See 2011 Progress report, 
Table C-2, and section II.H of the TSD. Therefore, contingency measures 
for failure to meet the 2009 RFP benchmark no longer have any meaning 
or effect under the CAA and therefore do not require any review or 
action by EPA. In addition, as noted above, the purpose of RFP 
contingency measures is to provide continued progress while the SIP is 
being revised to meet a missed RFP milestone. Failure to meet the 2009 
benchmark would have required California to revise the South Coast 2007 
AQMP to assure that the next milestone was met and that the plan still 
provided for attainment. California has already prepared and submitted 
a revision to the South Coast 2007 AQMP that shows that the SIP 
continues to provide for RFP and for attainment by April 5, 2015. This 
revision is the 2011 Progress Report, which is one of the submittals 
that EPA is proposing action on in this notice.
    The South Coast 2007 AQMP includes suggestions for several 
contingency measures that do not meet the CAA's minimum requirements. 
The measures proposed by the District are not adopted, and does not 
quantify the expected emissions reductions in order to gauge whether 
they provide reductions equivalent to one year's worth of RFP.
    The continuing implementation of the State's mobile source program 
will reduce emissions substantially in 2015 (the year after the 2014 
attainment year). However, as shown in Table 9, these reductions do not 
provide emissions reductions equivalent to one year's worth of RFP when 
considered on a per-pollutant basis.
    Based on this evaluation and for the reasons stated above, we are 
proposing to disapprove the District's contingency measure provisions 
for the 2012 RFP year and the attainment year in the South Coast 2007 
AQMP for PM2.5 as not meeting the requirements of CAA 
section 172(c)(9) and 40 CFR 51.1012.

F. Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets for Transportation Conformity

1. Requirements for Transportation Conformity
    Transportation conformity is required by section 176(c) of the CAA. 
Actions involving Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) or Federal 
Transit Administration (FTA) funding or approval are subject to the 
EPA's transportation conformity rule, codified at 40 CFR part 93, 
subpart A. Our transportation conformity rule requires that 
transportation plans, programs, and projects developed by Metropolitan 
Planning Organizations (MPOs) in nonattainment and maintenance areas 
conform to SIPs and establishes the criteria and procedures for 
determining whether or not they do so. Conformity to the SIP means that 
transportation activities will not cause or contribute to new air 
quality violations, worsen existing violations, or delay timely 
attainment of the national ambient air quality standards or any interim 
milestone.
    Control strategy SIP submittals (such as RFP and attainment SIP 
submittals) must specify the maximum emissions of transportation-
related emissions from existing and planned highway and transit systems 
allowed in the appropriate years, i.e., the motor vehicle emissions 
budgets (``budgets''). The submittal must also demonstrate that these 
transportation-related emissions levels, when considered with emissions 
from all other sources, are consistent with RFP or attainment of the 
NAAQS, whichever is applicable. MPOs cannot use the budgets and DOT 
cannot approve a Regional Transportation Plan (RTP) or Transportation 
Improvement Program (TIP) conformity analysis using the budgets until 
EPA had made an affirmative adequacy finding based on a preliminary 
review of the SIP. MPOs must use budgets in a submitted but not yet 
approved SIP, after EPA has determined that the budgets are adequate. 
In order for us to find these emissions levels or ``budgets'' adequate 
and/or approvable, the submittal must meet the conformity adequacy 
provisions of 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4) and (5). Additionally, motor vehicle 
emissions budgets cannot be approved until EPA completes a detailed 
review of the entire SIP and determines that the SIP and the budgets 
will achieve their intended purpose (i.e., RFP, attainment or 
maintenance). For more information on the transportation conformity 
requirement and applicable policies on budgets, please visit our 
transportation conformity Web site at: http://www.epa.gov/otaq/stateresources/transconf/index.htm.
    PM2.5 attainment and RFP plans should identify budgets 
for direct PM2.5 and PM2.5 attainment plan 
precursors. Direct PM2.5 budgets should include 
PM2.5 motor vehicle emissions from tailpipe, brake wear, and 
tire wear. States must also consider whether re-entrained paved and 
unpaved road dust or highway and transit construction dust are 
significant contributors and should be included in the direct 
PM2.5 budget. (See 40 CFR 93.102(b) and 93.122(f) and the 
conformity rule preamble at 69 FR 40004, 40031-40036 (July 1, 2004)). 
The applicability of emission trading between conformity budgets for 
conformity purposes is described in 40 CFR 93.124(c).
2. Budgets in the South Coast 2007 AQMP and Additional 2008 Submittal
    As submitted on November 28, 2007, the 2007 South Coast AQMP 
included a set of PM2.5 budgets for direct PM2.5, 
and the PM2.5 precursors NOX and VOC for RFP 
years 2009 and 2012, the attainment year 2014, and 2023 and 2030. The 
direct PM2.5 budgets include tailpipe, brake wear, tire 
wear, and paved road, unpaved road, and construction dust. See CARB 
Resolution 07-05, which revised the budgets in the 2007 South Coast 
AQMP as adopted by

[[Page 41581]]

the District, and which was included in the November 28, 2007 
submittal. We refer herein to these budgets as the ``original'' 
budgets. On April 30, 2008, CARB submitted a SIP revision that replaced 
the original set of PM2.5 budgets with two new sets of 
budgets (herein, ``replacement'' budgets). One set of the replacement 
budgets is referred to as ``SIP-based'' budgets, and the other set is 
referred to as ``baseline'' budgets. In its April 30, 2008 submittal, 
CARB requested that EPA give primary consideration to the ``SIP-based'' 
budgets and only find the ``baseline'' budgets to be adequate if EPA 
cannot find the ``SIP-based'' budgets adequate in their entirety.
    The replacement budgets submitted on April 30, 2008 differ from the 
original budgets in that they reflect the EPA-approved EMFAC2007 motor 
vehicle emissions factor model (see 73 FR 3464, January 18, 2008) 
rather than District's CEPA emission factor model, which had been used 
for the original budgets. The ``SIP-based'' budgets reflect emissions 
reductions from rules adopted by October 2006 and also from control 
measures CARB expected to adopt in regulatory form in the future. The 
``baseline'' budgets differ from the ``SIP-based'' budgets by excluding 
emission reductions from control measures in the 2007 State Strategy 
that had not been adopted in regulatory form by October 2006.\37\ 
Moreover, the ``baseline'' budgets are only established for RFP years 
2009 and 2012 whereas the ``SIP-based'' budgets are established for the 
RFP years, the attainment year, and 2023 and 2030.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \37\ With respect to the ``SIP-based'' budget for RFP year 2009, 
however, CARB did exclude the emissions reductions from measures not 
adopted by October 2006. Thus, the ``SIP-based'' PM2.5 
budget for 2009 is the same as the ``baseline'' PM2.5 
budget for that year.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

3. EPA's 2008 Adequacy/Inadequacy Finding
    EPA generally first conducts a preliminary review of budgets 
submitted with an attainment, RFP, or maintenance plan for adequacy, 
prior to taking action on the plan itself, and did so with respect to 
the replacement PM2.5 budgets in the 2007 South Coast AQMP. 
The availability of the original budgets was announced for public 
comment on EPA's adequacy Web page on February 12, 2008 and the 
availability of the replacement (then available in draft form) was 
announced for public comment on March 27, 2008. EPA received comments 
from the public in response to both postings.
    On May 6, 2008, we found the ``SIP-based'' PM2.5 budgets 
for the 2007 South Coast AQMP, as revised on April 30, 2008, to be 
inadequate for transportation conformity purposes. See the letter and 
enclosures dated May 6, 2008 from Deborah Jordan, Director, Air 
Division, EPA Region 9 to James Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB (a 
copy of which has been placed in the docket for this rulemaking). 
However, in our May 2008 adequacy determination, we found the 
``baseline'' PM2.5 budgets for RFP years 2009 and 2012 to be 
adequate. Generally, we found the ``SIP-based'' budgets to be 
inadequate because they reflected control measures not yet adopted in 
regulatory form and thus not adequately quantified or supported by the 
plan. In contrast, we found the ``baseline'' PM2.5 budgets 
to be consistent with the plan's RFP demonstration and to be based on 
adopted mobile source regulations that have already been implemented. 
Our notice of adequacy/inadequacy of the budgets was published on May 
15, 2008 at 73 FR 28110 (corrected on June 18, 2008 at 73 FR 34837), 
and was effective on May 30, 2008. More information on this finding can 
be found in the TSD for today's action.
4. Updated Motor Vehicle Emissions Budgets in the 2011 Progress Report 
and Additional Revisions
    CARB's 2011 Progress Report contained updated budgets for the South 
Coast nonattainment area and their documentation in Appendices D and A, 
respectively, of the 2011 Progress Report. The updated budgets were for 
direct PM2.5, VOC and NOX for the RFP year of 
2012 and the attainment year of 2014. No updated budgets were included 
in the 2011 Progress Report for the RFP year of 2009 because there are 
no applicable conformity analysis years prior to 2012.
    The submittal also includes a proposed trading mechanism for 
transportation conformity analyses that would allow future decreases in 
NOX emissions from on-road mobile sources to offset any on-
road increases in PM2.5, using a NOX to 
PM2.5 ratio of 10 to 1. Transportation conformity trading 
mechanisms are allowed under 40 CFR 93.124. The basis for the trading 
mechanism is the SIP attainment modeling which established the relative 
contribution of each PM2.5 precursor pollutant.
    As proposed in the 2011 Progress Report, this trading mechanism 
would only be used, if needed, for conformity analyses for years after 
2014. To ensure that the trading mechanism does not impact the ability 
of the South Coast nonattainment area to meet the NOX 
budget, the NOX emission reductions available to supplement 
the PM2.5 budget would only be those remaining after the 
2014 NOX budget has been met. Clear documentation of the 
calculations used in the trading would be included in the conformity 
analysis. See 2011 Progress Report, Appendix D, footnote to Table D-1.
    On June 20, 2011, CARB posted on its Web site technical revisions 
to the updated MVEB in the 2011 Progress Report that were referenced in 
a June 3rd letter to EPA.\38\ See CARB, ``Proposed 8-Hour Ozone State 
Implementation Plan Revisions and Technical Revisions to the 
PM2.5 State Implementation Plan Transportation Conformity 
Budgets for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins,'' 
Appendix C, June 20, 2011, posted at http://www.arb.ca.gov/planning/sip/2007sip/2007sip.htm. These revised updated budgets are shown in 
Table 10 below. The technical revisions correct data entry errors in 
the budget calculations and remove the emission reductions attributed 
to AB923 (the South Coast District's light and medium duty high emitter 
program).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \38\ See letter, James M. Goldstene, Executive Officer, CARB, to 
Deborah Jordan, Air Division Director, EPA Region 9, June 3, 2011.

     Table 10--Revised Updated RFP and Attainment Year Budgets for the South Coast PM2.5 Nonattainment Area
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                                                                     Pollutant
                              Year                               -----------------------------------------------
                                                                        VOC             NOX        Direct PM2.5
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2012............................................................             154             326              37

[[Page 41582]]

 
2014............................................................             132             290              35
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Source: Proposed 8-Hour Ozone State Implementation Plan Revisions and Technical Revisions to the PM2.5 State
  Implementation Plan Transportation Conformity Budgets for the South Coast and San Joaquin Valley Air Basins,
  Appendix C, June 20, 2011.

5. Proposed Action on the Revised Updated Budgets in the 2011 Progress 
Report
    EPA has evaluated the revised updated budgets against our adequacy 
criteria in 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4) and (5) as part of our review of the 
approvability of the budgets. The results of this review are documented 
in Section II.J of the TSD. We are also posting a notice of 
availability on our transportation adequacy Web site at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/stateresources/transconf/currsips.htm. EPA is not 
required under its Transportation Conformity rules to find budgets 
adequate prior to proposing approval of them. We will ultimately 
complete the adequacy review of these budgets, which could occur when 
we take a final action on this SIP, or at an earlier date.
    As discussed in sections V.C. and V.D., we have completed our 
detailed review of the South Coast 2007 AQMP and supplemental 
submittals, including the 2011 Progress Report. Based on this thorough 
review of these submittals, we are proposing to approve the attainment 
and RFP demonstrations in the South Coast 2007 AQMP. As discussed 
above, CARB has recently posted revisions to the updated budgets that 
were submitted in the 2011 Progress Report and intends to present these 
budgets for adoption as a SIP revision at its July 21, 2011 Board 
meeting. After reviewing these revised updated MVEBs, we are proposing 
to find them to be consistent with the approvable attainment and RFP 
demonstrations and to find that they meet all other applicable 
statutory and regulatory requirements including the adequacy criteria 
in 40 CFR 93.118(e)(4) and (5). Therefore, EPA proposes to approve the 
revised updated budgets based on our assumption that we will receive 
the revised budgets as a complete SIP revision from the State prior to 
our final action on the South Coast 2007 AQMP. If CARB is unable to 
adopt and submit the revised budgets, then EPA intends to find 
inadequate and disapprove the budgets contained in the 2011 Progress 
Report.\39\ If we disapprove the budgets, a conformity freeze would 
take effect upon the effective date of the disapproval (usually 30 days 
after publication of the final action in the Federal Register). A 
conformity freeze means that only projects in the first four years of 
the most recent conforming RTP and TIP can proceed. During a freeze, no 
new RTPs, TIPs or RTP/TIP amendments can be found to conform. See 40 
CFR 93.120.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    \39\ EPA cannot approve or find adequate the budgets included in 
the 2011 Progress Report because they include uncreditable 
reductions from AB923 and because of the technical error in the 
budget calculations.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------

6. Proposed Action on the Trading Mechanism
    As noted above, CARB included a trading mechanism to be used in 
transportation conformity analyses that use the proposed budgets as 
allowed under 40 CFR 93.124. This trading mechanism would allow future 
decreases in NOX emissions from on-road mobile sources to 
offset any on-road increases in PM2.5, using a 
NOX:PM2.5 ratio of 10:1. To ensure that the 
trading mechanism does not impact the ability of SCAG to meet the 
NOX budget, the NOX emission reductions available 
to supplement the PM2.5 budget would only be those 
reductions remaining after the 2014 NOX budget has been met. 
The trading mechanism will be implemented with the following criteria. 
The trading applies only to:
     Analysis years after the 2014 attainment year.
     On-road mobile emission sources.
     Trades using vehicle NOX emission reductions in 
excess of those needed to meet the NOX budget.
     Trades in one direction from NOX to direct 
PM2.5.
     A trading ratio of 10 tpd NOX to 1 tpd 
PM2.5.
    Clear documentation of the calculations used in the trading would 
be included in the conformity analysis. See 2011 Progress Report, 
Appendix D, footnote to Table D-1.
    EPA has reviewed the 10:1 NOX:PM2.5 ratio and 
finds it is an appropriate ratio for trading between NOX and 
direct PM2.5 for transportation conformity purposes in the 
South Coast Air Basin for the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS. The method 
for determining the NOX Equivalent Factors is documented in 
CARB's Staff Report on Proposed 2007 State Implementation Plan for the 
South Coast Air Basin--PM2.5 Annual Average and 8-Hour Ozone 
National Ambient Air Quality Standards, September 21, 2007, Appendix C. 
The method discussed in this documentation appears to be adequate for 
purposes of assessing the effect of area-wide emissions changes, such 
as are used in conformity budgets. See Section V.D.2 above and II.B.4 
of the TSD.
    EPA believes that South Coast 2007 AQMP as revised by the 2011 
Progress Report includes an approvable trading mechanism for 
determining transportation conformity after 2014. EPA is proposing to 
approve the trading mechanism and all of the criteria included in the 
footnote to Table D-1 as enforceable components of the transportation 
conformity program for the South Coast nonattainment area for the 1997 
PM2.5 NAAQS. EPA is also proposing to approve the use of 
this ratio in transportation conformity determinations for the 2006 24-
hour PM2.5 NAAQS, but only until EPA finds adequate or 
approves budgets developed specifically for the 2006 24-hour 
PM2.5 standard. Until that time, conformity will be 
determined using the budgets for the 1997 annual PM2.5 
NAAQS. EPA is not proposing, at this time, to approve the use of this 
ratio in plans for future PM standards or in the District's new source 
review (NSR) permitting program.

VI. EPA's Proposed Actions and Consequences

A. EPA's Proposed Approvals and Disapprovals

    For the reasons discussed above, EPA proposes to approve, with the 
exception of the contingency measures, California's SIP for attaining 
the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS in the South Coast nonattainment area 
and to grant the State's request for an extension of the attainment 
date. This SIP is composed of the relevant portions of the South Coast 
2007 AQMP as revised in 2011 and the South Coast-specific portions of

[[Page 41583]]

CARB's 2007 State Strategy as revised in 2009 and 2011.
    Specifically, EPA proposes to approve under CAA section 110(k)(3) 
the following elements of the South Coast PM2.5 attainment 
SIP:
    (1) The 2002 base year emissions inventories as meeting the 
requirements of CAA section 172(c)(3) and 40 CFR 51.1008;
    (2) the reasonably available control measures/reasonably available 
control technology demonstration as meeting the requirements of CAA 
sections 172(c)(1) and 40 CFR 51.1010;
    (3) the reasonable further progress demonstration as meeting the 
requirements of CAA section 172(c)(2) and 40 CFR 51.1009;
    (4) the attainment demonstration as meeting the requirements of CAA 
section 172(c)(1) and(6) and 40 CFR 51.1007;
    (5) the air quality modeling as meeting the requirements of the CAA 
and EPA guidance;
    (6) the revised updated 2012 RFP and 2014 attainment year motor 
vehicle emissions budgets as posted by CARB on June 20, 2011 contingent 
upon our receipt of a SIP revision, because they are derived from the 
approvable RFP and attainment demonstrations and meet the requirements 
of CAA section 176(c) and of 40 CFR 93, subpart A; and CARB's trading 
mechanism to be used in transportation conformity analyses as allowed 
under 40 CFR 93.124;
    (7) SCAQMD's commitments to the adoption and implementation 
schedule for specific control measures listed in Tables 2 through 5 in 
Appendix F of the 2011 Progress Report to the extent that these 
commitments have not yet been fulfilled; and
    (8) CARB's commitments to propose certain defined measures, as 
listed in Table B-1 on page 1 of Appendix B of the 2011 Progress Report 
and to achieve aggregate emission reductions by 2014 sufficient to 
provide for attainment of the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS as described 
in CARB Resolution 07-28, Attachment B.
    EPA also proposes to concur with the State's determination under 40 
CFR 51.1002(c) that NOX, SOX, and VOC are 
attainment plan precursors and ammonia is not an attainment plan 
precursor for attainment of the 1997 PM2.5 NAAQS in the 
South Coast nonattainment area.
    EPA proposes to grant, pursuant to CAA section 172(a)(2)(A) and 40 
CFR 51.1004(a), California's request to extend the attainment date for 
the South Coast PM2.5 nonattainment area to April 5, 2015.
    EPA proposes to disapprove under CAA section 110(k)(3) the 
contingency measures in the South Coast 2007 AQMP for failing to meet 
the requirements of CAA section 172(c)(9) and 40 CFR 51.1012.

B. CAA Consequences of a Final Disapproval

    EPA is committed to working with the District, CARB and SCAG to 
resolve the remaining issues with the SIP that make the current 
PM2.5 attainment SIP for the South Coast nonattainment area 
not fully approvable under the CAA and the PM2.5 
implementation rule. However, should we finalize the proposed 
disapproval of the contingency measure provisions in the South Coast 
2007 AQMP or finalize a disapproval of the transportation conformity 
emissions budgets, the offset sanction in CAA section 179(b)(2) would 
apply in the South Coast PM2.5 nonattainment area 18 months 
after the effective date of a final disapproval. The highway funding 
sanctions in CAA section 179(b)(1) would apply in the area six months 
after the offset sanction is imposed. Neither sanction will be imposed 
under the CAA if California submits and we approve prior to the 
implementation of sanctions, SIP revisions that correct the 
deficiencies identified in our proposed action. In addition to the 
sanctions, CAA section 110(c)(1) provides that EPA must promulgate a 
federal implementation plan addressing the deficient elements in the 
PM2.5 SIP for the South Coast nonattainment area two years 
after the effective date of any disapproval, should we not approve a 
SIP revision correcting the deficiencies within the two years.
    Because we are proposing to approve the RFP and attainment 
demonstrations and the motor vehicle emission budgets, we are proposing 
to issue a protective finding under 40 CFR 93.120(a)(3) to the 
disapproval of the contingency measures. Without a protective finding, 
final disapproval would result in a conformity freeze under which only 
projects in the first four years of the most recent conforming RTP and 
TIP can proceed. During a freeze, no new RTPs, TIPs or RTP/TIP 
amendments can be found to conform. See 40 CFR 93.120(a)(2). Under a 
protective finding, however, final disapproval of the contingency 
measures would not result in a transportation conformity freeze in the 
South Coast PM2.5 nonattainment area.

VII. Statutory and Executive Order Reviews

    Under the CAA, the Administrator is required to approve a SIP 
submission that complies with the provisions of the Act and applicable 
Federal regulations. 42 U.S.C. 7410(k); 40 CFR 52.02(a). Thus, in 
reviewing SIP submittals, EPA's role is to approve state choices, 
provided that they meet the criteria of the CAA. Accordingly, this 
action merely proposes to partially approve and partially disapprove 
state law as meeting Federal requirements and does not impose 
additional requirements beyond those imposed by state law.

A. Executive Order 12866, Regulatory Planning and Review

    This action is not a ``significant regulatory action'' under the 
terms of Executive Order (EO) 12866 (58 FR 51735, October 4, 1993) and 
is therefore not subject to review under the EO.

B. Paperwork Reduction Act

    This action does not impose an information collection burden under 
the provisions of the Paperwork Reduction Act, 44 U.S.C. 3501 et seq, 
because this proposed SIP partial approval and partial disapproval 
under CAA section 110 and subchapter I, part D will not in-and-of 
itself create any new information collection burdens but simply 
approves certain State requirements for inclusion into the SIP and 
disapproves others. Burden is defined at 5 CFR 1320.3(b).

C. Regulatory Flexibility Act

    The Regulatory Flexibility Act (RFA) generally requires an agency 
to conduct a regulatory flexibility analysis of any rule subject to 
notice and comment rulemaking requirements unless the agency certifies 
that the rule will not have a significant economic impact on a 
substantial number of small entities. Small entities include small 
businesses, small not-for-profit enterprises, and small governmental 
jurisdictions. For purposes of assessing the impacts of today's rule on 
small entities, small entity is defined as: (1) A small business as 
defined by the Small Business Administration's (SBA) regulations at 13 
CFR 121.201; (2) a small governmental jurisdiction that is a government 
of a city, county, town, school district or special district with a 
population of less than 50,000; and (3) a small organization that is 
any not-for-profit enterprise which is independently owned and operated 
and is not dominant in its field.
    After considering the economic impacts of today's proposed rule on 
small entities, I certify that this action will not have a significant 
impact on a substantial number of small entities. This rule does not 
impose any requirements or create impacts on small entities. This 
proposed partial approval and partial disapproval of the SIP under CAA 
section 110 and subchapter I, part

[[Page 41584]]

D will not in-and-of itself create any new requirements but simply 
approves certain State requirements for inclusion into the SIP and 
disapproves others. Accordingly, it affords no opportunity for EPA to 
fashion for small entities less burdensome compliance or reporting 
requirements or timetables or exemptions from all or part of the rule. 
The fact that the CAA prescribes that various consequences (e.g., 
higher offset requirements) may or will flow from this disapproval does 
not mean that EPA either can or must conduct a regulatory flexibility 
analysis for this action. Therefore, this action will not have a 
significant economic impact on a substantial number of small entities.
    We continue to be interested in the potential impacts of this 
proposed rule on small entities and welcome comments on issues related 
to such impacts.

D. Unfunded Mandates Reform Act

    This action contains no Federal mandates under the provisions of 
Title II of the Unfunded Mandates Reform Act of 1995 (UMRA), 2 U.S.C. 
1531-1538 for State, local, or tribal governments or the private 
sector.'' EPA has determined that the proposed approval and disapproval 
action does not include a Federal mandate that may result in estimated 
costs of $100 million or more to either State, local, or tribal 
governments in the aggregate, or to the private sector. This action 
proposes to partially approve and partially disapprove pre-existing 
requirements under State or local law, and imposes no new requirements. 
Accordingly, no additional costs to State, local, or tribal 
governments, or to the private sector, result from this action.

E. Executive Order 13132, Federalism

    Executive Order 13132, entitled ``Federalism'' (64 FR 43255, August 
10, 1999), requires EPA to develop an accountable process to ensure 
``meaningful and timely input by State and local officials in the 
development of regulatory policies that have federalism implications.'' 
``Policies that have federalism implications'' is defined in the 
Executive Order to include regulations that have ``substantial direct 
effects on the States, on the relationship between the national 
government and the States, or on the distribution of power and 
responsibilities among the various levels of government.''
    This action does not have federalism implications. It will not have 
substantial direct effects on the States, on the relationship between 
the national government and the States, or on the distribution of power 
and responsibilities among the various levels of government, as 
specified in Executive Order 13132, because it merely proposed to 
partially approve and partially disapprove certain State requirements 
for inclusion into the SIP and does not alter the relationship or the 
distribution of power and responsibilities established in the Clean Air 
Act. Thus, Executive Order 13132 does not apply to this action.

F. Executive Order 13175, Coordination With Indian Tribal Governments

    This action does not have tribal implications, as specified in 
Executive Order 13175 (65 FR 67249, November 9, 2000), because the SIP 
EPA is proposing to partially approve and partially disapprove would 
not apply in Indian country located in the state, and EPA notes that it 
will not impose substantial direct costs on tribal governments or 
preempt tribal law. Thus, Executive Order 13175 does not apply to this 
action.

G. Executive Order 13045, Protection of Children From Environmental 
Health Risks and Safety Risks

    EPA interprets E.O. 13045 (62 FR 19885, April 23, 1997) as applying 
only to those regulatory actions that concern health or safety risks, 
such that the analysis required under section 5-501 of the E.O. has the 
potential to influence the regulation. This action is not subject to 
E.O. 13045 because it because it is not an economically significant 
regulatory action based on health or safety risks subject to Executive 
Order 13045 (62 FR 19885, April 23, 1997). This proposed partial 
approval and partial disapproval of the SIP under CAA section 110 and 
subchapter I, part D will not in-and-of itself create any new 
regulations but simply disapproves certain State requirements for 
inclusion into the SIP.

H. Executive Order 13211, Actions That Significantly Affect Energy 
Supply, Distribution, or Use

    This proposed rule is not subject to Executive Order 13211 (66 FR 
28355, May 22, 2001) because it is not a significant regulatory action 
under Executive Order 12866.

I. National Technology Transfer and Advancement Act

    Section 12(d) of the National Technology Transfer and Advancement 
Act of 1995 (``NTTAA''), Public Law 104-113, 12(d) (15 U.S.C. 272 note) 
directs EPA to use voluntary consensus standards in its regulatory 
activities unless to do so would be inconsistent with applicable law or 
otherwise impractical. Voluntary consensus standards are technical 
standards (e.g., materials specifications, test methods, sampling 
procedures, and business practices) that are developed or adopted by 
voluntary consensus standards bodies. NTTAA directs EPA to provide 
Congress, through OMB, explanations when the Agency decides not to use 
available and applicable voluntary consensus standards.
    EPA believes that this action is not subject to requirements of 
Section 12(d) of NTTAA because application of those requirements would 
be inconsistent with the Clean Air Act.

J. Executive Order 12898: Federal Actions To Address Environmental 
Justice in Minority Populations and Low-Income Populations

    Executive Order (EO) 12898 (59 FR 7629 (Feb. 16, 1994)) establishes 
federal executive policy on environmental justice. Its main provision 
directs federal agencies, to the greatest extent practicable and 
permitted by law, to make environmental justice part of their mission 
by identifying and addressing, as appropriate, disproportionately high 
and adverse human health or environmental effects of their programs, 
policies, and activities on minority populations and low-income 
populations in the United States.
    EPA lacks the discretionary authority to address environmental 
justice in this proposed action. In reviewing SIP submissions, EPA's 
role is to approve or disapprove state choices, based on the criteria 
of the Clean Air Act. Accordingly, this action merely proposes to 
approve certain State requirements for inclusion into the SIP under CAA 
section 110 and subchapter I, part D and to disapprove others will not 
in-and-of itself create any new requirements. Accordingly, it does not 
provide EPA with the discretionary authority to address, as 
appropriate, disproportionate human health or environmental effects, 
using practicable and legally permissible methods, under Executive 
Order 12898.

List of Subjects in 40 CFR Part 52

    Environmental protection, Air pollution control, Nitrogen dioxide, 
Particulate matter, Reporting and recordkeeping requirements, Sulfur 
oxides, Volatile organic compounds.

    Authority:  42 U.S.C. 7401 et seq.

     Dated: June 29, 2011.
Jared Blumenfeld,
Regional Administrator, EPA Region 9.
[FR Doc. 2011-17229 Filed 7-13-11; 8:45 am]
BILLING CODE 6560-50-P